江森自控 (JCI) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Johnson Controls Q3 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Nadia, and I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加江森自控 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫納迪亞，今天我將負責協調這場電話會議。（操作員指示）

I will now hand the call over to Jim Lucas, Vice President, Investor Relations, to begin. Jim, please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資人關係副總裁 Jim Lucas 開始演講。吉姆，請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Johnson Controls' fiscal third quarter 2025 results. Joining me on the call today are Johnson Controls' Chief Executive Officer, Joakim Weidemanis; and Marc Vandiepenbeeck, our Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論江森自控 2025 財年第三季的業績。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有江森自控執行長 Joakim Weidemanis 和財務長 Marc Vandiepenbeeck。

Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements that reflect our current views about our future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings for a list of these important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，在今天的演示中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，反映我們對未來業績和財務結果的當前看法。這些聲明是基於對未來事件的某些假設和預期，這些假設和預期受風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱我們的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的重要風險因素清單。

We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures throughout today's presentation. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are contained in the schedules attached to our press release and in the appendix to this presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Johnson Controls' website.

我們還將在今天的演示中引用某些非公認會計準則指標。這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表包含在我們新聞稿所附的時間表和本簡報的附錄中，兩者均可在江森自控網站的「投資者關係」部分找到。

I will now turn the call over to Joakim.

現在我將把電話轉給 Joakim。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's call. This morning, we announced strong third-quarter results, continuing the momentum we've sustained throughout the year. Organic sales grew 6%. Segment margins expanded 20 basis points to 17.6%, and adjusted EPS grew 11% and exceeded our guidance.

謝謝，吉姆，大家早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。今天上午，我們公佈了強勁的第三季業績，延續了我們全年保持的勢頭。有機銷售額成長6%。分部利潤率擴大 20 個基點至 17.6%，調整後每股盈餘成長 11%，超出我們的預期。

Year to date, adjusted free cash flow has nearly doubled to $1.8 billion, and we are on track to deliver over 100% free cash flow conversion for the year. Orders grew 2%, led by strength in the Americas and offset by ongoing softness in China. Our backlog grew 11% to $14.6 billion and remains at record levels. We continue to see strength in demand for both our Systems and Service solutions. We are now building an even stronger foundation for long-term success by developing a business system focused on simplifying operations, accelerating growth, and scaling our impact. This includes sharpening our focus on what matters most to customers and deploying Lean principles to tackle barriers to growth.

年初至今，調整後的自由現金流幾乎翻了一番，達到 18 億美元，我們預計將實現全年超過 100% 的自由現金流轉換。訂單成長 2%，主要得益於美洲市場的強勁成長，但被中國市場的持續疲軟所抵消。我們的積壓訂單增加了 11%，達到 146 億美元，並仍處於創紀錄的水平。我們繼續看到對我們的系統和服務解決方案的需求強勁。我們現在正在透過開發專注於簡化營運、加速成長和擴大影響力的業務系統來為長期成功奠定更堅實的基礎。這包括更加關注客戶最關心的問題，並部署精實原則來克服成長障礙。

We're raising our full-year guidance, and Marc will give more details later in the call. I now have my first quarter under my belt, and tomorrow is my 140th day at a company celebrating 140 years of leadership. That is 140 years of winning with customers, driving innovation, and supporting the advancement of human society with solutions for smart, productive, safe, and sustainable buildings. After all, the advancement of science, education, healthcare, and manufacturing occur in buildings.

我們正在提高全年業績預期，馬克將在稍後的電話會議中提供更多細節。我現在已經完成了第一個季度的工作，明天是我在公司任職 140 年的第 140 天。140 年來，我們始終致力於透過智慧、高效、安全和永續的建築解決方案贏得客戶的青睞，推動創新，支持人類社會的進步。畢竟，科學、教育、醫療保健和製造業的進步都是在建築物中發生的。

As we celebrate and reflect upon our history, we believe our best days are still ahead of us. Unlocking our potential depends on placing even greater emphasis on the customer. Our goal is to deliver consistent, predictable results over time and outperform our competition, enabling strong capital allocation and enhancing value for shareholders.

當我們慶祝和回顧我們的歷史時，我們相信我們最好的日子還在前方。釋放我們的潛力取決於更加重視客戶。我們的目標是長期提供一致、可預測的結果並超越我們的競爭對手，實現強大的資本配置並提高股東價值。

Since joining Johnson Controls, I've had the opportunity to travel the globe, visiting our largest factories and spending time in the field with our customers and teams. I have visited well over 100 customers, all of our major innovation centers and walked more than 30 plants. I met with hundreds of our frontline colleagues in sales, service, R&D, and manufacturing. These travels produced insights that will inform our future success as a company. First, we need to sharpen our focus on our customers while also staying ahead of the competition. Customer centricity will fuel accelerated growth by enabling us to win and retain customers more effectively through differentiated offerings and how we serve them.

自從加入江森自控以來，我有機會週遊世界，參觀我們最大的工廠，並與我們的客戶和團隊一起在現場工作。我拜訪了 100 多位客戶、我們所有的主要創新中心，並參觀了 30 多家工廠。我會見了銷售、服務、研發和製造部門數百名一線同事。這些旅行帶來的見解將為我們公司未來的成功提供指導。首先，我們需要更專注於客戶，同時保持競爭優勢。以客戶為中心將使我們能夠透過差異化的產品和服務更有效地贏得和留住客戶，從而推動加速成長。

Second, it's essential that we enhance our investment in R&D to accelerate innovation. Our IP portfolio is strong with 8,200 patents and more on the way. Our products and solutions deliver results that resonate with our customers. While we possess considerable strengths, there remain opportunities to accelerate growth within our core domains by addressing gaps in our product portfolio.

第二，要加大研發投入，加速創新。我們的智慧財產權組合非常強大，擁有 8,200 項專利，還有更多專利正在申請中。我們的產品和解決方案帶來的成果引起了客戶的共鳴。雖然我們擁有相當大的優勢，但仍有機會透過解決產品組合中的差距來加速我們核心領域的成長。

Third, our field position of 40,000 frontline colleagues has been and continues to be a competitive advantage. We see clear opportunities to better equip and support them, make it get easier for them to deliver for our customers. By doing so, we can get more leverage from our team and expand capacity and productivity to drive stronger results.

第三，我們擁有 40,000 名一線同事，這一直是並將繼續成為我們的競爭優勢。我們看到了更好地裝備和支持他們、使他們更容易為我們的客戶提供服務的明確機會。透過這樣做，我們可以從團隊中獲得更多優勢，並擴大產能和生產力，從而獲得更強勁的成果。

Given the importance of this effort, we recently appointed Chris Scalia as Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer. Chris brings a unique combination of people and culture strategy, operational excellence, and a deep commitment to building high-performing teams. We're excited for Chris to hit the ground running as we continue to transform Johnson Controls into a growth-focused, customer-centric powerhouse, and a magnet for talent.

鑑於此項工作的重要性，我們最近任命克里斯·斯卡利亞 (Chris Scalia) 為執行副總裁兼首席人力資源官。克里斯 (Chris) 將人才與文化策略、卓越營運以及打造高績效團隊的堅定承諾進行了獨特的結合。我們很高興克里斯能夠立即投入工作，繼續將江森自控轉變為一個以成長為重點、以客戶為中心的強大企業，並吸引人才。

As we look ahead to our ongoing transformation, developing a business system and embedding it in our cultural foundation is a critical step in driving long-term success, one that requires dedicated effort, discipline, and patience. My deep experience with proven business systems, combined with spending meaningful time at Gemba has helped us shape a clear vision for what this could look like at Johnson Controls. This business system is how we will win and run the company. It will be anchored and proven methodologies like 80/20 and Lean and augmented by digitization and AI.

展望我們正在進行的轉型，開發業務系統並將其嵌入我們的文化基礎是推動長期成功的關鍵一步，這需要專注的努力、紀律和耐心。我對成熟的業務系統有著豐富的經驗，加上在 Gemba 度過的有意義的時光，幫助我們對江森自控的未來形成了一個清晰的願景。這個業務系統就是我們如何取勝和經營公司。它將以 80/20 和精益等經過驗證的方法為基礎，並透過數位化和人工智慧進行增強。

First, 80-20 is a powerful operating model that sharpens our focus cutting through complexity so we can concentrate our energy on what matters most to our customers. We simplify. Then adopting principles of Lean, we convert this focus into action with a strong orientation of what matters most to our customers. We eliminate waste, streamline workflows, and accelerate processes to drive speed and efficiency across the organization to better serve customers and increase our competitiveness.

首先，80-20 是一種強大的營運模式，它能讓我們集中精力解決複雜問題，從而將精力集中在對客戶最重要的事情上。我們簡化。然後採用精實原則，我們將這項重點轉化為行動，並專注於客戶最關心的問題。我們消除浪費、簡化工作流程、加速流程，以提高整個組織的速度和效率，從而更好地服務客戶並提高我們的競爭力。

We accelerate. And throughout the process, we embed digitization and AI as core enablers in our process improvement. This augments our focus and speed with smarter systems and the ability to scale impact for our customers and our people. We scale. So simplify, accelerate, scale.

我們加速。在整個過程中，我們將數位化和人工智慧作為流程改善的核心推動因素。這增強了我們的注意力和速度，使我們的系統更加智能，並且能夠為我們的客戶和員工擴大影響力。我們擴大規模。因此，簡化、加速、擴展。

While we made progress over the last several quarters, we know that with a strong business system in place, we can accelerate and improve our results over time. We will solve customer problems faster and more effectively by empowering our people. It will become our way of life at Johnson Controls.

雖然我們在過去幾個季度取得了進展，但我們知道，有了強大的業務系統，我們可以隨著時間的推移加速並改善我們的業績。透過賦予員工權力，我們將更快、更有效地解決客戶問題。這將成為江森自控的生活方式。

Our efforts are already underway. Since the last earnings call, we have identified a number of growth blockers, and we are actively addressing them. In general, the growth blockers center around the speed of execution and more effectively and efficiently leveraging our existing capabilities in the field and beyond. To ensure speed in decision-making and implementation, it is important to identify the root cause of these growth blockers and develop countermeasures that we can then implement into consistent repeatable processes. We have started with a narrow focus to deliver results quickly, and then we will scale more broadly.

我們的努力已在進行中。自從上次財報電話會議以來，我們已經發現了一些成長障礙，並且正在積極解決這些問題。總體而言，成長障礙主要集中在執行速度以及更有效、更有效率地利用我們在該領域及其他領域的現有能力。為了確保決策和實施的速度，重要的是找出這些成長障礙的根本原因並制定對策，然後將其實施到一致、可重複的流程中。我們一開始只專注於一個方面，以快速取得成果，然後我們將擴大其範圍。

I can give you two early examples of progress. The first example is in our conventional HVAC business, where we're creating value for our customers and our frontline colleagues who serve them. Our objective is to substantially increase the amount of time our sales teams can dedicate to engaging with customers by streamlining internal processes and eliminating waste that does not contribute direct value to the customer experience. Over the last four weeks, this team has identified specific countermeasures to double time with customers for our sellers. This will unlock opportunities to better leverage our enviable field position.

我可以舉兩個早期進步的例子給你。第一個例子是我們傳統的暖通空調業務，我們正在為客戶和為他們服務的第一線同事創造價值。我們的目標是透過簡化內部流程和消除對客戶體驗沒有直接貢獻的浪費，大幅增加銷售團隊與客戶互動的時間。在過去的四周裡，該團隊已經確定了具體的對策，以便我們的賣家可以加倍花時間與客戶溝通。這將為我們更好地利用令人羨慕的領域地位創造機會。

Another focus area is improving lead times for our key chillers in North America, where we continue to see dynamic growth in the fast-expanding data center vertical. We have an opportunity to cut lead times in half, which will both improve our competitiveness and create additional manufacturing capacity.

另一個重點領域是縮短我們在北美的主要冷水機組的交貨時間，我們繼續看到快速擴張的資料中心垂直領域的動態成長。我們有機會將交貨時間縮短一半，這不僅可以提高我們的競爭力，還可以創造額外的製造能力。

As we deliver substantial improvements around the growth blockers we have identified, we can replicate these successes and deploy across our global portfolio. With momentum building, our executive team has been trained on the core foundations of our future business system, and each of them have participated in at least one Kaizen.

隨著我們針對已發現的成長障礙做出實質改進，我們可以複製這些成功並部署到我們的全球投資組合中。隨著勢頭的增強，我們的執行團隊已經接受了未來業務系統核心基礎的培訓，並且每個人都參加了至少一次改善。

After countless Kaizens throughout my career, I participated in my first Johnson Controls Kaizen a couple of weeks ago. Over the next few months, we will train our top 200 leaders and ensure their participation in Kaizens and our program overall. As we begin to see tangible results from these early initiatives, we will expand engagement and training across the organization.

在我的職業生涯中經歷過無數次的改善之後，幾週前我第一次參加了江森自控的改善活動。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將培訓我們的 200 位頂尖領導者，並確保他們參與 Kaizens 和我們的整體計劃。當我們開始看到這些早期措施的實際成果時，我們將擴大整個組織的參與和培訓。

While we have many opportunities to drive growth, through operational improvement and ultimately more consistent, predictable results, we're also continuously evaluating and refining our strategy. This has started with a fresh objective view of all our business lines and solutions. Looking ahead, we will evaluate our portfolio and make strategic decisions to ensure sustainable growth through targeted acquisitions or thoughtful exits. As we move forward, our focus will progress to a comprehensive review of our operations, including our manufacturing and back office networks to further unlock productivity and capacity.

雖然我們有很多機會透過營運改進和最終獲得更一致、更可預測的結果來推動成長，但我們也在不斷評估和改善我們的策略。這始於對我們所有業務線和解決方案的全新客觀看法。展望未來，我們將評估我們的投資組合併做出策略決策，以確保透過有針對性的收購或深思熟慮的退出實現永續成長。隨著我們繼續前進，我們的重點將轉向全面審查我們的運營，包括我們的製造和後台網絡，以進一步釋放生產力和產能。

In summary, we believe there are clear opportunities to optimize our portfolio, footprint, cost structure, and the way we work going forward. This is an ongoing process with continued focus on delivering shareholder value.

總而言之，我們相信有一個明顯的機會來優化我們的投資組合、足跡、成本結構以及未來的工作方式。這是一個持續的過程，我們將繼續致力於實現股東價值。

It has been a productive four months since I started at Johnson Controls. My excitement continues to build as we become more intensely focused on the customer, the people on the front lines who serve them every day, and drive adoption of our future business system. I look forward to the journey ahead as we work together to deliver even greater value for our customers, team members, and shareholders.

自從我加入江森自控以來，已經過去了富有成效的四個月。隨著我們更加關注客戶、關注每天為他們服務的第一線人員，並推動未來業務系統的採用，我的興奮之情與日俱增。我期待著未來的旅程，我們將共同努力為我們的客戶、團隊成員和股東創造更大的價值。

With that, I will now turn it over to Marc.

現在，我將把發言權交給馬克。

Thanks, Joakim, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 6. We delivered strong results in the fiscal third quarter. While the broader environment remains uncertain, our execution continued to drive meaningful results. Our focus on operational efficiency is helping us to deliver for our customers and reinforce our competitive edge.

謝謝，喬金，大家早安。翻到幻燈片 6。我們在第三財季取得了強勁的業績。儘管整體環境仍不確定，但我們的執行力仍繼續帶來有意義的成果。我們注重營運效率，這有助於我們為客戶提供服務並增強我們的競爭優勢。

Our team is committed to generating consistent, long-term value for our shareholders. In the quarter, organic revenue grew 6%, and segment margin expanded 20 basis points to 17.6%, as we proactively mitigated the impact of tariff through strategic sourcing and cost management initiatives. Adjusted EPS of $1.05 was up 11% year over year and exceeded the high end of our guidance range.

我們的團隊致力於為股東創造持續、長期的價值。本季度，有機收入成長 6%，分部利潤率擴大 20 個基點至 17.6%，因為我們透過策略採購和成本管理措施積極減輕關稅的影響。調整後的每股收益為 1.05 美元，年增 11%，超過了我們預期範圍的高端。

On the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with approximately $700 million in available cash. Compared to last year, net debt declined to 2.5 times, which is within our long-term target range of 2 to 2.5 times.

從資產負債表來看，我們在第三季末擁有約 7 億美元的可用現金。與去年相比，淨債務下降至 2.5 倍，這符合我們 2 至 2.5 倍的長期目標範圍。

Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow improved approximately $900 million year over year to $1.8 billion. This strong performance driven by improved cash conversion reflects our disciplined financial management and consistent operational execution.

年初至今調整後的自由現金流年增約 9 億美元，達到 18 億美元。現金轉換率提高帶來的強勁業績反映了我們嚴謹的財務管理和一致的營運執行。

Let's now discuss our segment results in more details on slide 7 and 8. Orders in the quarter grew 2% as growth in Americas was muted by softness in China. Customer engagement remains strong, and we continue to see healthy activity across our pipeline. Additionally, the mix of order is shifting towards higher-margin solutions, reinforcing our long-term growth and profitability outlook.

現在讓我們在投影片 7 和 8 上更詳細地討論我們的細分結果。由於中國經濟疲軟，美洲地區的成長受到抑制，本季訂單成長了 2%。客戶參與度依然強勁，我們持續看到整個通路的健康活動。此外，訂單組合正在轉向利潤率更高的解決方案，這增強了我們的長期成長和獲利前景。

Geographically, orders in Americas increased 5% with mid-single-digit growth in Systems. In EMEA, orders were up 2% against a tough comp with 6% growth in Service, offsetting a 1% decline in Systems. In APAC, orders were down 8% as a decline in System more than offset double-digit growth in Service. At an enterprise level, our organic sales growth was led by solid mid-single-digit growth in both System and Service.

從地理上看，美洲的訂單成長了 5%，其中系統訂單實現了中等個位數的成長。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，訂單量成長 2%，而服務業務成長 6%，抵消了系統業務 1% 的下降。在亞太地區，系統業務的下滑抵消了服務業務兩位數的成長，導致訂單下降 8%。在企業層面，我們的有機銷售成長主要得益於系統和服務部門穩健的中位數個位數成長。

Sales in Americas were up 7% organically with continued strength in both HVAC and Controls. In EMEA, organic sales grew 4%, led by 8% growth in Service. In APAC, sales grew 6% organically with strong double-digit growth from our resilient Service business. We continue to maintain healthy margin through disciplined cost management and strategic pricing, ensuring profitability even in a dynamic market environment. Operationally, we have driven greater efficiency across our core processes, while improvement in our service mix have allowed us to prioritize higher value offerings that enhance customer satisfaction and support long-term profitable growth.

美洲地區銷售額有機成長 7%，暖通空調和控制系統持續保持強勁成長。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，有機銷售額成長 4%，其中服務業務成長 8%。在亞太地區，銷售額有機成長 6%，其中強勁的兩位數成長得益於我們富有彈性的服務業務。我們透過嚴格的成本管理和策略定價繼續保持健康的利潤率，即使在動態的市場環境中也能確保獲利能力。在營運方面，我們提高了核心流程的效率，同時服務組合的改進使我們能夠優先提供更高價值的產品，以提高客戶滿意度並支援長期獲利成長。

By region, EMEA adjusted segment EBITDA margin expanded 100 basis points to 14.1%, driven by improved productivity and a positive mix of Service growth. In APAC, adjusted margins expanded 70 basis points to 19.4% as productivity continued to improve. In America, adjusted margin improved 10 basis points to 18.5% as System growth outpaced Service growth. Our backlog remains at record levels, growing 11% to $14.6 billion. System backlog grew 11%, and Service backlog grew 8%.

按地區劃分，受生產力提高和服務業務積極成長的推動，EMEA 地區調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 100 個基點至 14.1%。在亞太地區，隨著生產力的持續提高，調整後的利潤率擴大了 70 個基點，達到 19.4%。在美國，由於系統成長超過服務成長，調整後的利潤率提高了 10 個基點，達到 18.5%。我們的積壓訂單仍處於創紀錄水平，成長 11%，達到 146 億美元。系統積壓訂單增加了 11%，服務積壓訂單增加了 8%。

Let's now discuss our fiscal fourth quarter and full-year guidance on slide 9. As we enter the fourth quarter, we are building on strong momentum, driven by enhanced operational efficiencies and a backlog that remains at historical high levels. We anticipate organic sales growth of low single digits, adjusted segment EBITA margin of approximately 18.6%, and adjusted EPS in the range of $1.14 to $1.17.

現在讓我們在第 9 張投影片上討論一下第四季和全年的財務指引。進入第四季度，我們正保持強勁勢頭，這得益於營運效率的提高和積壓訂單仍處於歷史高點。我們預計有機銷售額成長率將達到低個位數，調整後分部 EBITA 利潤率約為 18.6%，調整後每股收益將在 1.14 美元至 1.17 美元之間。

As a reminder, we have a challenging comparison due to a large onetime project we successfully executed last year. Based on strong execution and consistent performance, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance for mid-single-digit organic sales growth and approximately 90 basis points of adjusted segment EBITA margin expansion. Additionally, we are raising our outlook for adjusted EPS and free cash flow conversion. We now expect adjusted EPS in the range of $3.65 to $3.68 per share, representing 14% to 15% growth. Building on our strengthened working capital position, year-to-date free cash flow performance reflects solid execution and financial discipline.

提醒一下，由於我們去年成功執行了一個大型一次性項目，因此我們面臨的比較具有挑戰性。基於強勁的執行力和持續的業績表現，我們重申全年指引，即實現中等個位數的有機銷售額增長和調整後分部 EBITA 利潤率擴大約 90 個基點。此外，我們提高了調整後每股盈餘和自由現金流轉換的預期。我們現在預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 3.65 美元至 3.68 美元之間，代表成長 14% 至 15%。在我們加強的營運資本狀況的基礎上，年初至今的自由現金流表現反映了穩健的執行力和財務紀律。

As a result, we now anticipate achieving free cash flow conversion of greater than 100% for the full year. We continue to target returning 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

因此，我們預計全年自由現金流轉換率將達到 100% 以上。我們持續致力於透過股利和股票回購將 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

Finally, we expect the sale of our Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business to Bosch to close in our fiscal fourth quarter. While we anticipate returning the majority of the net proceeds to our shareholders through share repurchases, the impact on this year's share count is expected to be minimal, with the benefit primarily accruing in the next fiscal year.

最後，我們預計住宅和輕型商用 HVAC 業務向博世的出售將在財政第四季度完成。雖然我們預計將透過股票回購將大部分淨收益返還給股東，但預計對今年股票數量的影響將很小，收益主要會在下一個財政年度產生。

Operator, we are now ready for questions.

接線員，我們現在可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

（操作員指示）瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Amit Mehrotra。

Joakim, I guess, as you approach five months on the job, I know that's not a lot of time or a long time, but I guess it would just be helpful for us to understand your initial observations. What are some of the KPIs you're focused on to kind of make sure the global organization is moving in the right direction? And importantly, how quickly you think we can see some of the tangible progress on the return profile of the business?

喬金，我想，您上任已經快五個月了，我知道這不是很多時間，也不是很長，但我想這有助於我們了解您最初的觀察結果。您關注哪些關鍵績效指標 (KPI) 來確保全球組織朝著正確的方向發展？重要的是，您認為我們多快能看到業務回報狀況的一些實際進展？

Yeah. Four months in, as you heard here in the prepared commentary, I visited a lot of places around the world, more than 100 customers, walked more than 30 plants and set with colleagues in all of our innovation centers. And I think I've gotten a really good grasp of the opportunity here. And as you've heard me talk about before, number one is we need to sharpen our focus on the customer at every level and every function of our company. And that's such a foundational point, and I'll come back to that.

是的。正如您在準備好的評論中所聽到的，四個月後，我訪問了世界各地很多地方，拜訪了 100 多位客戶，走訪了 30 多家工廠，並與我們所有的創新中心的同事們一起工作。我認為我已經很好地抓住了這裡的機會。正如您之前聽我說過的那樣，首先，我們需要在公司的各個層面和各個職能部門中更加關注客戶。這是一個基本點，我稍後會再談這個。

And I also see opportunities to continue to drive growth through innovation, through increased investments in R&D. I'll come back to how we're going to fund that. And I see that we have really this enviable field position, 40,000 colleagues in the field, a capability that's been built over decades is difficult to replicate. But we have to find ways to unlock faster improvement in the company that -- improvement that is valued by customers and gives us room to continue to invest in, for example, innovation.

我也看到了透過創新、透過增加研發投資來持續推動成長的機會。我稍後會討論我們將如何為此提供資金。我看到我們確實擁有令人羨慕的一線地位，有 40,000 名同事在一線工作，這種能力是幾十年來建立起來的，很難複製。但我們必須找到方法來加速公司的改進，這種改進受到客戶重視，並為我們繼續投資提供空間，例如，創新。

And that's why I spoke about a new business system that is information that we have started to deploy. And you heard a little bit about on the prepared remarks that that is anchored in 80/20 simplification and Lean, which is about acceleration, speed in many ways is the ultimate competitive advantage and augmented by digitization and AI to scale. So simplify, accelerate, and scale. And the notion here is that speed is one of the largest competitive advantages.

這就是我談到我們已經開始部署的資訊新業務系統的原因。您在準備好的發言中聽到了一些關於這一點的內容，即以 80/20 簡化和精益為基礎，這與加速有關，速度在許多方面都是最終的競爭優勢，並透過數位化和人工智慧來增強規模。因此，簡化、加速和擴展。這裡的觀點是，速度是最大的競爭優勢之一。

And you can't like go too broad too quickly, so -- because you also want to get the buy-in from your organization while you deliver value early. So we've started already, and we're going deep. And as you heard, I gave two examples, one commercial example, which is more growth-oriented and one operational example, which is both cost and growth oriented. So the commercial example. And this is -- these examples are examples, capabilities that we're building that we're going to deploy much broader over time. But you want to start narrow, so you can really understand the root causes of why we're not able to perform better and so that you can go after the countermeasures and then build new processes and capabilities and then inspire other people in other parts of the company to do the same.

而且你不能太快地走得太寬，所以——因為你也希望在儘早交付價值的同時獲得組織的支持。我們已經開始了，並且正在深入研究。正如你所聽到的，我舉了兩個例子，一個是商業例子，更注重成長；另一個是營運例子，既注重成本，也注重成長。這就是商業範例。這些就是例子，我們正在建立這些功能，這些功能將隨著時間的推移而得到更廣泛的部署。但是你需要從狹窄的地方開始，這樣你才能真正了解我們無法表現更好的根本原因，這樣你才能採取對策，然後建立新的流程和能力，然後激勵公司其他部門的其他人也這樣做。

So the two examples where in our HVAC conventional business in North America and one part of the country, we have a team working on in their fourth Kaizen now, actually, and where we have a path to basically doubling the selling time that our sellers have in that part of the business by improving and -- removing waste from processes and improving the processes that we have.

舉兩個例子，在我們位於北美和該國部分地區的 HVAC 傳統業務中，我們實際上有一個團隊正在進行第四次 Kaizen，並且我們可以通過改進和消除流程中的浪費以及改進我們現有的流程，將我們銷售人員在該業務部分的銷售時間基本上增加一倍。

So that -- I'm very excited about the potential of that more broadly over time. And then on the operations side, I gave you an example of where we're working on cutting the lead time in half. And we're in our third Kaizen on that one. I was in one of those Kaizens myself actually the other week. And cutting lead time in half is what you do to achieve that is basically the same things, similar things you would do to reduce cost and capital, tied up working capital that is. So that effort will generate efforts beyond reducing lead time.

所以——我對它隨著時間的推移所具有的更廣泛的潛力感到非常興奮。然後在營運方面，我給你舉了一個例子，說明我們正在努力將交貨時間縮短一半。我們對此進行了第三次改善。事實上，上週我自己就參加了其中一次 Kaizens 活動。將交付週期縮短一半所要實現的目標與降低成本和資本（也就是佔用的營運資金）所要做的事情基本上相同，類似。因此，這種努力將產生超越縮短交貨時間的效果。

And of course, reducing the lead time makes us more competitive. And in that case, the product lines we've started with are oriented towards the data center market. where demand is still very high and being able to deliver faster than others is an important part of our competitive advantage. So anyway, so we're starting narrow, exciting the organization, training the organization, and then we're going to deploy this more widely over time. And we have lots of opportunities here on these kinds of themes. So I'm very excited about that.

當然，縮短交貨時間可以讓我們更有競爭力。在這種情況下，我們開始的產品線面向資料中心市場。該市場的需求仍然很高，能夠比其他人更快地交付是我們競爭優勢的重要組成部分。所以無論如何，我們從狹小範圍開始，激發組織熱情，培訓組織，然後隨著時間的推移，我們將更廣泛地部署它。我們在這些主題上有很多機會。所以我對此感到非常興奮。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Appreciate the color on that question. I'm kind of going to go to a slightly different direction. You've had 140 days, maybe that's not enough time to answer this perhaps. But do you have a better sense, Joakim, now of what the -- how you can accelerate growth in Fire & Security and how that business really -- how HVAC and Fire & Security can really lever off of each other? I think historically, it's always been a question mark of whether they fit or not. But I think investors at this point are pretty open-minded on hearing your view.

欣賞這個問題的色彩。我打算走一個稍微不同的方向。你已經有 140 天了，也許這還不足以回答這個問題。但是，喬金，你現在對如何加速消防與安防業務的成長以及該業務如何真正地——暖通空調和消防與安防業務如何真正地相互促進，有了更好的認識嗎？我認為從歷史上看，他們是否合適一直是個問號。但我認為，現在投資人聽到你的觀點時，態度還是比較開放的。

Yeah, thanks for that question, Scott. These are, as we spoke about last time with all of you, I mean, I see these are fundamentally different businesses serving a similar customer base but different personas at different points in time. And so we're calling it as it is. That doesn't mean that they don't -- aren't businesses that don't have potential. They have potential as well.

是的，謝謝你的提問，斯科特。正如我們上次與大家討論的那樣，我的意思是，我認為這些是根本不同的企業，它們服務於相似的客戶群，但在不同的時間點服務於不同的角色。所以我們就這樣稱呼它。這並不意味著他們沒有潛力。他們也有潛力。

And many of the examples I gave on the new business system here are focused on HVAC and Controls because we think that those markets inherently have higher levels of growth. But there's growth in Fire & Security as well. And so the approaches I described, we are gradually going to deploy into those businesses, and we think there's good potential to improve the performance there as well over time. And then like I said, we are taking a dispassionate view of the portfolio. And we are two-plus months into a deeper strategic review of our businesses where we're at today and looking at the future and who we would like to be.

我在這裡給出的許多有關新業務系統的例子都集中在暖通空調和控制系統上，因為我們認為這些市場本身俱有更高的成長水平。但消防和安防產業也在成長。因此，我們將逐步把我所描述的方法部署到這些業務中，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這些業務的業績也有很大的潛力可以提高。然後就像我說的，我們對投資組合採取冷靜的看法。我們花了兩個多月的時間對我們的業務進行了更深入的策略審查，了解當前的狀況，並展望未來以及我們希望成為的樣子。

And we'll keep -- and the Board, of course, I'm working very closely with the Board and obviously, these are not things you concluded in sort of one cycle, one Board meeting. So over the next couple of months, together with the Board, we're going to start to draw conclusions on what the portfolio will look like here going forward.

我們會繼續——當然，我與董事會正密切合作，顯然，這些不是在一個週期、一次董事會會議內就能得出結論的事情。因此，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將與董事會一起開始對未來的投資組合狀況得出結論。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），Vertical Research Partners。

Wondering if we could shift to free cash flow. Marc, nice to see the bump here this morning. Maybe could you address and certainly, Joakim, would love your thoughts on this also. But where the most significant opportunities are on the free cash flow side? Should we view this 100% plus sort of a catch-up on low-hanging fruit? Or is your confidence level that the company can kind of consistently be in that 100% ZIP code rising here?

想知道我們是否可以轉向自由現金流。馬克，很高興今天早上看到這裡的隆起。也許您可以談談，當然，Joakim，我也想知道您對此的看法。但是自由現金流方面最重要的機會在哪裡呢？我們是否應該將這 100% 以上的成果視為一種唾手可得的追趕？或者，您對該公司能夠持續在 100% 郵遞區號範圍內營運的信心水準是否在不斷提高？

For sure. Well, thanks for the comments. We had a strong start of the year in cash flow, and we've continued that momentum. I think the progress we've made this year has a lot to do with accounts receivable or collection management and everything goes from managing order and managing customer through that experience. That has allowed us to really continuously improve the conversion throughout the year and has allowed us to get to that 100%-plus conversion.

一定。嗯，謝謝你的評論。今年年初我們的現金流表現強勁，我們一直保持著這一勢頭。我認為我們今年的進展與應收帳款或收款管理有很大關係，一切都從管理訂單和管理客戶開始。這使我們能夠在全年持續提高轉換率，並實現 100% 以上的轉換率。

Almost $1 billion of improvement year on year is a good feat, but it doesn't mean that we are done, and that's all of the benefit we are going to see. We still have those fundamental structural headwinds we've talked about our effective tax rate being slightly different than the cash tax rate, and we still have slightly elevated CapEx. But those two things, over time, will die down. There's a lot of opportunities that are going to come from our Lean efforts and Lean transformation. And I think if you think about when we start that flywheel around that Lean transformation, the need for facilities will reduce over time, which will reduce CapEx, which will reduce inventory. Our ability to increase cycle time and improve customer centricity will also drive ultimately better output, from an inventory standpoint.

每年近 10 億美元的改進是一項很好的成就，但這並不意味著我們已經完成了，這就是我們將要看到的所有好處。我們仍然存在一些根本性的結構性阻力，即我們的有效稅率與現金稅率略有不同，而且我們的資本支出仍然略有上升。但隨著時間的推移，這兩件事將會逐漸消失。我們的精實努力和精實轉型將帶來許多機會。我認為，如果你想想，當我們圍繞精益轉型啟動飛輪時，對設施的需求將隨著時間的推移而減少，這將減少資本支出，從而減少庫存。從庫存的角度來看，我們增加週期時間和提高客戶中心性的能力最終也將帶來更好的產出。

We think that we're moving forward, the larger opportunity is. But there's still progress to be made on every aspect of the fundamental of our free cash flow conversion.

我們認為我們正在前進，機會就更大。但我們的自由現金流轉換基礎的各個方面仍有待進展。

Yeah. I mean, I'll second that. And the lead time reduction example I gave, I mean, in principle, that means that we'll be able to get a lot more output from that facility without adding additional physical asset space. And so that means that we're going to sort of decouple versus historical trends the CapEx that we need for our growth. So that's really what that is about.

是的。我的意思是，我同意這一點。我給出的縮短交貨時間的例子，原則上意味著我們將能夠從該設施獲得更多的產出，而無需增加額外的實體資產空間。這意味著我們將把我們成長所需的資本支出與歷史趨勢脫鉤。這就是事情的真正意義。

And we're also going to, by the same token, because with the approaches we're applying, the decouple, the addition of inventory dollars for the gross dollars that we have. So that's really what that lead time reduction initiative is about. And like I said, we've started narrow, and we'll go broader over time.

並且，出於同樣的原因，我們也會採用相同的方法，將庫存美元與我們的毛美元分離，從而增加庫存美元。這就是縮短交貨時間計劃的真正意義。正如我所說的，我們的起點很狹窄，但隨著時間的推移，我們的範圍會越來越廣。

But then on the commercial side as well, we have a work stream, I think we're in our second Kaizen now, where we're looking at how we're performing on billing and how fast do we build, how accurate is our billing and therefore, what is sort of the first pass yield on customers paying invoices. Every -- no company in this world is perfect on invoicing, right? There's -- sometimes you miss a few.

但在商業方面，我們也有一個工作流程，我認為我們現在處於第二次改善階段，我們正在研究我們在計費方面的表現以及我們的建造速度有多快，我們的計費有多準確，以及因此，客戶支付發票的首次通過收益率是多少。世界上沒有一家公司在開立發票方面是完美的，對吧？有時你會錯過一些。

And if you have a couple of percent of invoicing errors that you need to redo versus less than 1%, that not only impacts customer satisfaction but, of course, also your cash flow. So we've seen some good opportunities in that area, too. So those themes give me confidence that we're going to be able to maintain the cash conversion that we've seen so far this year.

如果您有百分之幾的發票錯誤需要重做，而不是不到 1%，這不僅會影響客戶滿意度，當然還會影響您的現金流。因此，我們也看到了該地區的一些良好機會。因此，這些主題讓我相信我們能夠維持今年迄今的現金轉換率。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Just want to follow up on that last point. I don't want to sound greedy, but with the intangible amortization, is there a pathway to maybe being above 100% free cash conversion based on the current reporting structure? And then maybe if we could maybe go back to the portfolio, very clear messaging there. Are we still in the zone of 5% to 10% of the current portfolio being, I guess, with a question mark over its strategic importance?

我只是想跟進最後一點。我不想顯得太貪心，但是有了無形資產攤銷，根據目前的報告結構，是否有可能實現超過 100% 的自由現金轉換？然後，如果我們可以回到投資組合，那裡的資訊就非常清晰了。我猜，我們是否仍處於目前投資組合的 5% 至 10% 的範圍內，其策略重要性仍是一個問號？

Yeah, Nigel, I understand the question on above 100%. I think it's a little early for us to commit. What I can tell you is that historically, we've said the algorithm was 85%, 90%-plus. I think we are comfortable that we'll be able to deliver solidly in the 90s in terms of conversion. And over time, as we see the improvement on the Lean transformation yielding the results, we could raise from there.

是的，奈傑爾，我完全理解上面的問題。我認為我們現在做出承諾還為時過早。我可以告訴你的是，從歷史上看，我們說演算法的準確率是 85% 到 90% 以上。我認為，我們有信心在 90 年代實現穩固的轉換。隨著時間的推移，當我們看到精益轉型取得成果時，我們就可以從那裡開始提升。

But at this stage, it's a little bit too early. On the portfolio, I would say the immediate actions we are taking on some of the assets that we believe are non-core. It's still within that 10%, 15% range. Now there's a broader amount of work that's being done. Joakim alluded to that earlier.

但目前來看還為時過早。關於投資組合，我想說的是，我們正在對一些我們認為非核心的資產採取緊急行動。它仍然在 10% 至 15% 的範圍內。現在正在進行的工作範圍更加廣泛。喬金早些時候曾提到這一點。

And that could be greater than a 10% over time as we validate kind of our strategic vision with the Board and kind of decide where we can focus in OE and the company to be successful and grow faster.

隨著我們與董事會確認我們的策略願景，並決定我們應該在 OE 和公司方面集中精力以取得成功並實現更快發展，這一比例可能會隨著時間的推移而超過 10%。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you maybe just -- the order number low single digit was maybe a little bit lighter than I was expecting. How do you guys feel about that trending into the fourth quarter? And then secondarily, what's the timeline for when you guys provide perhaps a bit more of a longer-term outlook around what all this action is going to turn into financially?

您是否可以只是——訂單號碼的低個位數可能比我預期的要少一點。你們對於第四季的趨勢有什麼看法？其次，如果你們能提供一個更長遠的展望，說明所有這些行動在財務上將會帶來什麼結果，那麼時間表是怎樣的呢？

Very good. Yes. So orders in Americas was strong. EMEA, in my view, was better than perhaps what the number appears to be because of a compare -- and then clearly, there's ongoing softness in China.

非常好。是的。因此美洲的訂單很強勁。在我看來，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現可能比透過比較得出的數字要好——顯然，中國市場持續疲軟。

And so as you would expect, we continue to dig deep into leading indicators or pipelines and so on. And my conclusion is that our core vertical markets, they remain healthy. And it's not just our healthcare verticals and our data center verticals, but overall, there is no change. So I feel good about our pipelines. And then on China, which we've talked about before, is bouncing around the bottom. I guess we've called it.

正如您所期望的，我們將繼續深入研究領先指標或管道等。我的結論是，我們的核心垂直市場依然健康。這不僅僅是我們的醫療保健垂直行業和資料中心垂直行業，總體而言，沒有變化。所以我對我們的管道感到滿意。然後我們之前談到的中國，正在底部徘徊。我想我們已經稱呼它了。

We continue to be very disciplined there around going after higher-margin Systems orders and then prioritizing our Service business there. And so we had healthy growth on the Service side. And China is maybe a longer discussion, but I was there recently and maybe the one tidbit is that that market is gradually turning into a more mature market in the sense that the retrofit part of the market is -- continues to steadily increase, which is different than a number of years ago when it was sort of a new construction, new build market. So it's starting to look a little bit more like some of our Western markets.

我們將繼續嚴格遵守紀律，追求利潤更高的系統訂單，並優先考慮我們的服務業務。因此，我們在服務方面取得了健康成長。關於中國，討論的時間可能更長，但我最近去過那裡，也許有一點可以肯定，那就是這個市場正在逐漸變成一個更加成熟的市場，因為市場的改造部分正在持續穩步增長，這與幾年前的新建、新建市場不同。因此它開始看起來有點像我們的一些西方市場。

But near term, short term, yes, new builds in China, as has been talked about by many players, is a challenging space to be, so we need to be very diligent about what we choose to go after there and protect and manage our margins.

但就短期而言，正如許多參與者所談論的那樣，中國的新建築是一個充滿挑戰的領域，因此我們需要非常謹慎地選擇在那裡發展什麼，並保護和管理我們的利潤。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

So with the quarter ending with record backlog, Joakim, I'm curious whether there's a way for you guys to maybe just give us an initial framework for 2026. And then maybe just going back to a previous question on the long-term targets, just wondering whether you're planning an Investor Day next year as well.

因此，Joakim，隨著本季以創紀錄的積壓量結束，我很好奇你們是否有辦法為我們提供 2026 年的初步框架。然後也許回到之前關於長期目標的問題，只是想知道您是否也計劃明年舉辦投資者日。

Yeah. So I appreciate -- Steve, I apologize, we didn't answer your question. So I will make a note to make sure that we do that next time. We are working on at 2026 as we speak. I'm 140 days in.

是的。所以我很感激——史蒂夫，我很抱歉，我們沒有回答你的問題。所以我會記下來確保下次我們能這樣做。我們正在為 2026 年的目標而努力。我已經 140 天了。

So of course, I want to make sure I do a really detailed job together with Marc there. So maybe, Marc, you could share a few words on where we're at.

所以當然，我想確保我和馬克一起完成一份非常細緻的工作。所以，馬克，也許你可以談談我們現在的情況。

Yeah. And we are on the finalization of our internal plan for '26. It's a bit early for us to comment on this. But I think overall, the long-term algorithm we've been talking about with as a reminder, mid-single-digit top-line growth, looking for well over 25% incrementals and then double-digit EPS growth remain the basis for now. But as we implement the new business system, as we continue to do our strategic review, it's hard to imagine not having better incrementals, for example, over time and understanding how that will influence the ultimate long-term algorithm.

是的。我們正在最終確定 26 年的內部計劃。現在我們對此發表評論還為時過早。但我認為總體而言，我們一直在談論的長期演算法提醒我們，中等個位數的營收成長、尋求超過 25% 的增量以及兩位數的每股收益成長仍然是目前的基礎。但是，隨著我們實施新的業務系統，隨著我們繼續進行策略審查，很難想像隨著時間的推移不會有更好的增量，並了解這將如何影響最終的長期演算法。

I think we'll be better positioned to give you a view on that as we close the year, release the fourth quarter and start talking guidance for '26 and give you a better view. As far as Investor Day, we really want to go through that deep understanding of our strategic orientation before we take people deeper into what the new JCI may look like and what it would be long term from an investment thesis. So give us a little bit of time there to get through that and sharpen our pencil on the strategic view.

我認為，當我們結束今年的工作、發布第四季度業績並開始討論 26 年的指導時，我們將能夠更好地為您提供有關這一點的看法，並為您提供更好的看法。就投資者日而言，我們確實希望深入了解我們的策略方向，然後讓人們更深入地了解新的 JCI 可能會是什麼樣子，以及從投資理論來看它的長期前景。因此，請給我們一點時間來解決這個問題，並磨練我們的策略眼光。

Yeah. And on the guide, the two examples I've mentioned that we're working on as vehicles to implement our new business system, just to reinforce what Marc said, the commercial example I gave you with increasing the amount of selling time available for our sellers. That's really about decoupling the needed investment in the field, personnel to drive growth, decouple versus how that algorithm has worked in the past. And then the operations example I gave is really about decoupling both CapEx, inventory, and cost, quite frankly, to also drive the kind of growth that we aspire to here from the cost.

是的。在指南中，我提到的兩個例子是我們正在努力實現新業務系統的工具，只是為了強化馬克所說的，我給你的商業例子是增加我們賣家可用的銷售時間。這實際上是要將該領域所需的投資、推動成長的人員與過去的演算法的工作方式脫鉤。然後，我給出的營運範例實際上是將資本支出、庫存和成本分離，坦白說，這也可以從成本中推動我們所期望的那種成長。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Just wanted to ask something -- I just wanted to ask something about short term in nature. I think typically, if we look at EPS seasonality throughout the year, you've historically tended to see like a low teens percentage increase in 4Q relative to 3Q. The guidance this year implies something a bit lower than that. So I just want to understand, Marc, if you could kind of help with any major puts and takes between 3Q and 4Q that we should be considering. Thank you.

只是想問一些事情——我只是想問一些關於短期性質的事情。我認為，通常情況下，如果我們觀察全年的每股盈餘季節性，從歷史上看，第四季相對於第三季的每股盈餘百分比增幅往往在百分之十幾左右。今年的指導價略低於這個數字。所以我只是想知道，馬克，你是否能幫助我們考慮第三季和第四季之間應該考慮的任何重大損失。謝謝。

Yeah, nothing in particular. There's two kind of dynamics that are happening at the same time. There's a bit of uncertainty on what tariff will do on the bottom line. So far, we've executed very well, but we've taken some conservative view into the fourth quarter. And then you got to remember with the extraction of our Residential and Light Commercial business, which was more transactional, shorter cycle business, we are now a little bit of a longer cycle company.

是的，沒什麼特別的。有兩種動態同時發生。關稅對底線的影響存在一些不確定性。到目前為止，我們的執行情況非常好，但我們對第四季持一些保守的看法。然後你要記住，隨著我們的住宅和輕型商業業務的剝離，這些業務以前是交易性更強、週期更短的業務，現在我們有點像是一家週期更長的公司。

And therefore, the variation you see quarter-over-quarter is a little bit less seasonal. Now transparently, the fourth quarter, particularly in our HVAC and Controls business, it is a very healthy quarter generally from a growth and therefore, absorption of our field team simply because of the weather in the Northern Hemisphere. And so it will naturally provide better tailwinds overall but nothing vastly different if you look at the enterprise from a continued basis standpoint.

因此，季度間的變化不那麼具有季節性。現在顯然，第四季度，特別是在我們的暖通空調和控制業務方面，總體而言是一個非常健康的季度，這得益於北半球天氣狀況良好，我們的現場團隊也得到了增長和吸收。因此，它自然會從整體上提供更好的順風，但如果從持續的基礎角度來看企業，則不會有太大的不同。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Marc, in reference to your comment around -- just the comment around the algorithm and well over 25% incrementals. Can you touch on restructuring and the program that was announced last fall? Of the $500 million, what savings you anticipate achieving this year, just kind of broad strokes what the setup would be for what you can achieve next year? And then separately and with some of the legislative developments, just anything on tax. I think previously outlined that that could be up 400 or 500 bps year over year as we go into next year, but not sure of any recent developments there.

馬克，關於你的評論——只是關於演算法的評論以及超過 25% 的增量。您能談談重組和去年秋天宣布的計劃嗎？在這 5 億美元中，您預計今年可以節省多少資金，大致可以概括為明年可以節省多少資金？然後單獨討論一些與稅收有關的立法發展。我認為之前概述過，進入明年，這一數字可能會比去年同期上升 400 或 500 個基點，但不確定最近有何進展。

No. So on restructuring, Joe, so $400 million of restructuring costs. We've probably spent just a little over that. And we think we've gotten probably dollar-for-dollar restructuring saving. That's really part of the margin improvement story as we eliminate a lot of the stranded cost associated with the Residential and Light Commercial sale throughout the year even before the close on the transaction. And so we believe we are going to continue to drive towards that $400 million to get the full run rate, $100 million benefit at the exit of '26.

不。喬，就重組而言，重組成本為 4 億美元。我們可能只花了一點點錢。我們認為，我們可能已經透過重組獲得了同等程度的節省。這實際上是利潤率提高的一部分，因為我們在交易結束之前就消除了全年與住宅和輕型商業銷售相關的大量擱淺成本。因此，我們相信，我們將繼續努力爭取 4 億美元，以獲得全部運行率，即在 26 年退出時獲得 1 億美元的收益。

I can tell you that the early efforts around our Lean journey and transformation will probably have to think about how we position the restructuring -- the balance of the restructuring program. And if we should further extend it and potentially gain even more benefit from a return on those restructuring efforts. From a tax standpoint, there are some small changes at the fringe that will require kind of differentiated planning on our side. But net-net, the rate headwind I've been talking about of 400 to 500 basis points on -- as a reminder, 12% base effective tax rate in '25 will remain in force.

我可以告訴你，我們圍繞精益之旅和轉型的早期努力可能必須考慮如何定位重組——重組計劃的平衡。如果我們進一步延長它，並有可能從重組努力的回報中獲得更多利益。從稅收的角度來看，邊緣有一些小的變化，需要我們進行差異化的規劃。但總體而言，我一直在談論的 400 到 500 個基點的利率阻力——提醒一下，25 年 12% 的基本有效稅率仍將繼續有效。

It's really around that global minimum tax and how that drives the pressure on the rate. If you recall, the interesting component there is that from a cash tax rate, it doesn't materially change the math for '26 which is, by the way, a little bit of a tailwind from a free cash flow conversion as our cash tax rate will remain in the low 20s, high teens potentially depending on different actions we take.

這實際上與全球最低稅率以及其如何推動稅率壓力有關。如果你還記得的話，有趣的是，從現金稅率來看，它不會從根本上改變 26 年的數學計算，順便說一句，這有點來自自由現金流轉換的順風，因為我們的現金稅率將保持在 20% 出頭，10% 出頭，這可能取決於我們採取的不同行動。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Just a question going back to Americas orders. Could you by any chance disaggregate the orders between Fire & Security, Commercial, HVAC, and specifically, what are you seeing on data centers because you have such a strong market share globally in the market given the overall strength? I would echo the sentiment, I would have expected a little bit more growth. But maybe just give us a sense of what's happening. Are there any specific push outs, but by verticals in Americas?

這只是關於美國訂單的一個問題。您能否將消防和安防、商業、暖通空調等行業的訂單進行細分？具體來說，鑑於您在全球市場上擁有如此強大的市場份額，您對資料中心的看法如何？我會附和這種觀點，我原本期望會有更多的成長。但也許只是讓我們了解正在發生的事情。除了美洲的垂直市場外，還有什麼具體的推廣活動嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Andrew. Data centers continues to be very healthy. And it's about 10% of our sales today, growing very nicely. And there's, of course, a reason why we decided to deploy the initial stages of our business system focused on the operations, manufacturing side of things to help cut lead times for a data center product line.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。資料中心繼續保持非常健康的狀況。目前，它約占我們銷售額的 10%，成長非常良好。當然，我們決定將業務系統的初始階段重點放在營運和製造方面，以幫助縮短資料中心產品線的交貨時間，這是有原因的。

So we see that continuing here. Over time, we're doing well with both hyperscalers and colos. And perhaps that we can have a more detailed discussion at another point in time. So that's that side of the business.

因此，我們看到這種情況仍在繼續。隨著時間的推移，我們在超大規模和託管業務方面都取得了良好的成績。也許我們可以在另一個時間點進行更詳細的討論。這就是業務的這一面。

The HVAC and applied side of our business, in general, is doing very well. And the example I gave on Commercial, where we're deploying the business system is in HVAC and applied, outside of data centers. And so we're already growing at a very healthy rate there. And Fire & Security is -- we're growing, but at a lower rate than HVAC. That's more in low single digits. Those are shorter cycle businesses, by the way, as well, and I think you know that.

整體而言，我們業務的暖通空調和應用方面表現非常良好。我在商業上給出的例子是，我們在 HVAC 和應用中部署的業務系統位於資料中心之外。因此，我們在那裡已經以非常健康的速度成長。消防和安防業務也在成長，但成長速度低於暖通空調業務。這比較是一個數的低數。順便說一句，這些也是周期較短的業務，我想你知道這一點。

We see plenty of opportunity to apply the principles of what we're doing on the HVAC sales side in those businesses as well. But we chose to start in HVAC because in short term, we just think there's a bigger opportunity there. But so -- applied HVAC and data center heavy is the story here. But those other businesses are still growing -- are still growing, but low single digits.

我們看到，在這些業務中有很多機會可以應用我們在暖通空調銷售方面所採取的原則。但我們選擇從 HVAC 開始，因為從短期來看，我們認為那裡有更大的機會。但這裡的故事主要集中在應用 HVAC 和資料中心。但其他業務仍在成長——仍在成長，但成長率較低。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

If we look at JCI service business, it's had really good top-line growth over the long term. But if we look back at history, is there any color you could kind of talk about or provide as to how margins have expanded or the business has kind of driven operating leverage over the last few to several years?

如果我們看一下江森自控的服務業務，就會發現其長期營收成長確實非常良好。但是如果我們回顧歷史，您能否談談或說明過去幾年利潤率是如何擴大的，或者業務是如何推動經營槓桿的？

I think the answer to that is not enough operating leverage, and that is now an opportunity for us. And I think there are, from my travels, two reasons for that. I think just like we -- the example I gave on the HVAC sales by applying Lean principles, we're able to remove waste in our internal processes and help accelerate the sales process just in general. I think we have the same opportunity in Service so that we can gradually break the back off of the connection between Service growth and adding Service cost. So I see good opportunity in that.

我認為答案是經營槓桿不夠，而這對我們來說是一個機會。從我的旅行經驗來看，我認為有兩個原因。我認為就像我們——我給出的 HVAC 銷售範例一樣，透過應用精實原則，我們能夠消除內部流程中的浪費，並有助於加速整個銷售流程。我認為我們在服務方面也有同樣的機會，這樣我們就可以逐漸打破服務成長與增加服務成本之間的連結。所以我認為這是一個很好的機會。

That's a body of work that we're going to be launching over the next quarter here. So there's an operational side to the story. And then I think in a couple of our businesses, the way we productize Services, I think there is an opportunity to add more differentiated service products to our portfolio. And perhaps I can come back to that at some point in time in the future. But when I spoke about -- in the prepared commentary about wanting to increase investments in innovation, I'm not only talking about investments in Systems, but also in Service products.

這是我們下個季度將要進行的一項工作。因此，這個故事還有操作上的意義。然後我認為在我們的一些業務中，我們將服務產品化的方式，我認為有機會在我們的產品組合中添加更多差異化的服務產品。也許我將來某個時候可以再回到這個問題。但當我在準備好的評論中談到想要增加對創新的投資時，我不僅談論對系統的投資，還談論對服務產品的投資。

And some Service products might require some -- a few tweaks and changes in additions to our Systems on the installed base as well as new products. But there's also innovation opportunities on, for example, how you digitize services to be able to deliver, if I could call them, more outcome-oriented service products to customers versus more sort of break fix oriented services.

一些服務產品可能需要對已安裝的系統以及新產品進行一些調整和更改。但也存在創新機會，例如，如何將服務數位化，以便能夠向客戶提供更多以結果為導向的服務產品，而不是更多以故障修復為導向的服務。

So I see good opportunities, both operationally as well as from a product and differentiation point of view and being able to both continue the Service growth and then, like I said, break the back off of the growth and the costs, so that the margin can improve over time.

因此，我看到了良好的機會，無論是從營運角度還是從產品和差異化角度，都能夠繼續服務成長，然後，就像我說的，打破成長和成本之間的平衡，這樣利潤率就可以隨著時間的推移而提高。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Just wanted to ask about sort of operating margins and a couple of different questions on it. I think first off, the OMX is fairly muted year on year in the second half of this fiscal year. I understand tariffs are weighing. But is the sort of construct that, that or those related headwinds last sort of through the first half of next fiscal year and then you get a larger sort of jump in the back half on margins as that tariff headwind eases?

只是想問一下營業利潤率以及與之相關的幾個不同問題。我認為首先，OMX 本財年下半年的表現比去年同期相當低迷。我了解關稅正在產生影響。但是，這種結構或相關不利因素是否會持續到下一財年的上半年，然後隨著關稅不利因素的緩解，利潤率在下半年會有更大的成長？

And sort of beyond the next 12 months, I guess I was intrigued, Joakim, about you sound sort of relatively muted on the margin potential in Fire & Security, perhaps the growth outlook as well. And I just wondered if that's around JCI's positioning, something around market share because certainly, there are some peers out there like Honeywell or Allegion, say, this past quarter or two who are putting up pretty decent numbers in various parts of F&S. Thank you.

喬金，我對未來 12 個月之後的情況很感興趣，你對消防和安防行業的利潤潛力以及增長前景的看法似乎相對低調。我只是想知道這是否與 JCI 的定位有關，是否與市場份額有關，因為當然，有一些同行，例如 Honeywell 或 Allegion，例如在過去的一個或兩個季度，他們在 F&S 的各個領域都取得了相當不錯的成績。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks. Well, I'll let Marc take the first half of the question, and then I'll add on.

是的。謝謝。好吧，我請馬克回答問題的前半部分，然後我再補充一點。

Yeah. So on the OMX, you're right. Part of it on the rate standpoint is clearly the tariff. We've been able to recover the vast majority of that headwind, not always being able to consistently drive margin on that recovery. Some markets, we have more pricing power, and we have been able to recover with margins.

是的。所以關於 OMX，你是對的。從費率角度來看，其中一部分顯然是關稅。我們已經能夠恢復絕大多數逆風，但並非總是能夠持續推動復甦的利潤率。在某些市場，我們擁有更大的定價權，並且能夠恢復利潤率。

Some other markets, given the size of the tariff impact, it was a little bit more difficult to justify to the end customer that we have to receive margin on that. And then you got to remember, there's a lot of stranded costs in our SG&A associated with the continued discontinued operation, the Residential, Light Commercial. There is a lot of work underway and progress being made to actually take that cost out. But that's muted a little bit our ability to expand margin beyond the expectation. But I think moving forward, we have opportunity.

在其他一些市場，考慮到關稅影響的規模，向最終客戶證明我們必須從中獲得利潤有點困難。然後你必須記住，我們的銷售、行政和管理費用中有很多與持續停止的住宅、輕型商業業務相關的擱淺成本。目前正在進行大量工作並取得進展以真正消除這一成本。但這稍微削弱了我們超出預期擴大利潤的能力。但我認為，展望未來，我們還有機會。

I'll pass it on to you, Joakim, on the Fire & Security margin opportunity.

喬金，我會把消防與保全的利潤機會轉交給你。

Yeah. Yes, if we start with Fire and since you mentioned Honeywell, they've done, I think, from what I understand, a very nice job on the product portfolio over many, many years. So when I talked about us having some product gaps in our portfolio, I was thinking about fire detection as one example. So we play a little bit more on, let's call it, the premium or the more sophisticated system side of the market. We have some opportunities to go beyond that over time.

是的。是的，如果我們從 Fire 開始，既然您提到了霍尼韋爾，我認為，據我所知，他們在很多年裡在產品組合方面做得非常出色。因此，當我談到我們的產品組合中存在一些產品差距時，我想到火災偵測就是一個例子。因此，我們在市場上的高端或更複雜的系統方面投入了更多精力。隨著時間的推移，我們有機會超越這一點。

And on the Security side, it's a market that consists of many, many different kinds of solutions. You need to be careful with the apples to apples or apples versus oranges. You may recall that I used to be on the Board of ASSA ABLOY, Allegion's biggest competitor, right? So I've seen that from many different angles. So on the Security side, like fire detection, there are some product gaps that we have opportunities around.

在安全性方面，這個市場包含許多不同類型的解決方案。您需要謹慎對待蘋果與蘋果或蘋果與橘子之間的比較。您可能還記得，我曾經是 Allegion 最大競爭對手 ASSA ABLOY 的董事會成員，對嗎？我從許多不同的角度看到了這一點。因此，在安全方面，例如火災偵測，存在一些產品差距，我們有機會彌補。

Now on the Service side of things, to talk about margins, as I mentioned here previously, I think there's good opportunities to do work to again break the back off of the Service growth and the Service margins based on applying Lean principles and how we operate in the field on providing the services. And I also think there are some opportunities in productization of services that could drive greater differentiation. So I see those opportunities.

現在就服務方面而言，談到利潤率，正如我之前提到的，我認為有很好的機會透過應用精實原則以及我們在現場提供服務的方式，再次打破服務成長和服務利潤率的停滯。我也認為，服務產品化中存在一些機會，可以推動更大的差異化。所以我看到了這些機會。

Now again, we do see that the opportunity in HVAC and Controls as being one of having higher growth over time and probably a little bit of a higher margin opportunity over time as well. It doesn't mean the other two are bad businesses. I think we can operate those better over time versus how we have in the past. And like I said, we're working away at the strategic review of the portfolio diligently, thoughtfully. And once we have a conclusion, we will certainly let you know.

現在，我們再次看到，暖通空調和控制領域的機會是隨著時間的推移實現更高成長的機會之一，隨著時間的推移，利潤率也可能會有一點上升。這並不意味著另外兩家公司生意不好。我認為，與過去相比，我們可以隨著時間的推移更好地運作這些功能。正如我所說的，我們正在認真、認真地對投資組合進行策略性審查。一旦我們得出結論，我們一定會通知您。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

Just wanted to follow up on that line of conversation a little bit. You've had recently strong margin improvement, I think, in your other segments outside of the Americas. So as we think about the Americas going into '26, obviously, you have a mix component, we've talked about tariffs, and you just talked about Service. Can you improve the margin there as you go into '26? Is there anything in the competitive environment that may be holding you back because I know you've shown good improvement in Europe pretty quickly? So can you do that in the Americas as well?

只是想稍微跟進一下這個話題。我認為，最近您在美洲以外的其他領域的利潤率都有了強勁的成長。因此，當我們考慮美洲進入 26 年時，顯然，你有一個混合組成部分，我們討論了關稅，而你剛才討論了服務。進入 26 年後，您能提高利潤率嗎？我知道你在歐洲的表現很快就有了很大的進步，所以在競爭環境中是否存在著阻礙你前進的因素？那麼在美洲也能這樣做嗎？

Maybe I can start with a little bit of a long-term view that we've discussed a little bit more on our previous call a quarter ago. So based on -- and I still have the same view as when we spoke last, which is I really see no reason for why from a margin point of view, we should be below our direct competitors over time. It's not a one-year thing. It's not a five-year thing either. And I think over time, we can aspire beyond that.

也許我可以從一些長期觀點開始，我們在一個季度前的電話會議中對此進行了更深入的討論。因此基於——我仍然和我們上次談話時持有相同的觀點，那就是我真的不明白為什麼從利潤率的角度來看，我們應該隨著時間的推移低於我們的直接競爭對手。這不是一年的事。這也不是五年的事。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們可以超越這個目標。

And how do we get there? I mean, I gave you some examples today in the prepared remarks of how we're going to apply -- deploy a business system to do that. Both I gave you a commercial example and an operational example. And the two I gave happened to be North America-oriented examples, but they will -- over time, we will deploy that in other regions as well. So yes, I believe we have continued opportunity in all regions on margins.

我們怎樣才能到達那裡？我的意思是，我今天在準備好的發言中給了你們一些例子，說明我們將如何應用——部署一個業務系統來實現這一點。我既給了你一個商業範例，也給了你一個操作範例。我給的兩個例子恰好是面向北美的，但隨著時間的推移，我們也會將其部署到其他地區。所以是的，我相信我們在所有地區的利潤率上仍有機會。

Yeah. And in the short term, Andy, you have system that continues to update service. And so that our Service business being overall a higher margin business that will taper a little bit the mix headwind you were talking about. This quarter, we had year-on-year M&A headwind about 20 basis points that didn't help. But from a growth in productivity, if you exclude tariff, we had solid improvement in that margin line.

是的。安迪，短期內，你的系統會持續更新服務。因此，我們的服務業務總體上是一個利潤率較高的業務，它將稍微減弱您談到的混合逆風。本季度，我們的併購逆風年減了約 20 個基點，這並沒有起到什麼幫助作用。但從生產力的成長來看，如果不計入關稅，我們的利潤率就有了顯著的提高。

And so I think it's more muted in the short term. And as we get through those tariff changes and we get the M&A behind us, and the mix balances out to a more balanced 50-50 between Service and System, I think in addition to the opportunity, you have some tailwind here in the Americas from a margin standpoint.

所以我認為短期內情況會比較溫和。隨著我們完成這些關稅變化，併購交易完成，服務與系統之間的組合達到更加均衡的 50-50，我認為除了機會之外，從利潤率的角度來看，美洲也有一些順風。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

I wanted to circle back on free cash flow, if we could. And it really wasn't very long ago where JCI was struggling at the 80% conversion with kind of tempered expectations on where and how it would be improved. And it really does feel like you've turned a corner here. Just can you give us a sense of the sustainability above to be in and around 100%? And just remind me, did the sale of resi provide any kind of structural lift to the cash conversion cycle?

如果可以的話，我想重新討論自由現金流。不久之前，JCI 還在為實現 80% 的轉換率而苦苦掙扎，對於在哪裡以及如何改進，他們抱有相當謹慎的期望。你確實感覺自己已經到達了一個轉角。您能否讓我們了解上述永續性在 100% 左右嗎？提醒我一下，住宅銷售是否為現金轉換週期提供了任何結構性提升？

Let me start with that last one. Resi was actually a headwind. It was a higher cash flow converter because of the JV structure we had within that business. So that put about 5% to 10% headwind to our overall enterprise conversion. And in terms of sustainability and to kind of give you a sense of the two different, we've fundamentally changed a lot of processes internally, how we build, how we onboard supplier, how we manage our inventory. And we've been a little bit more maniacal around where we deploy CapEx and the pace at which we deploy those capital expenditure.

讓我從最後一個開始。Resi 其實是一股逆風。由於我們在該業務中擁有合資結構，因此它的現金流量轉換器更高。因此，這對我們整體企業轉型造成了約 5% 到 10% 的阻力。就永續性而言，為了讓您了解兩者的不同，我們從根本上改變了許多內部流程，包括我們如何建立、如何接納供應商、如何管理庫存。我們對部署資本支出的位置以及部署這些資本支出的速度更加瘋狂。

And you combine all of that together, it provides a solid foundation to at least perform in the 90s or 95-plus, I would say, from a free cash flow conversion. I don't think any of those fundamental are at risk of going backward, quite the opposite.

如果你把所有這些結合起來，它提供了一個堅實的基礎，至少可以從自由現金流轉換的角度在 90 年代或 95 歲以上表現。我認為這些基本面都不會面臨倒退的風險，恰恰相反。

As we are in the process of improving, they provide short-term tailwind, and I'm very confident that we are going to be able to hit that 95%-plus. And then over time, as we progress on Lean, as I mentioned earlier, on the Lean transformation that flywheel starts providing additional tailwind, I think we'll be more comfortable talking about 100% or 100%-plus. But at this stage, I'll stick to 95%.

在我們不斷改進的過程中，它們提供了短期的順風，我非常有信心我們能夠達到 95% 以上的目標。然後隨著時間的推移，隨著我們在精益方面的進步，正如我之前提到的，在精益轉型中，飛輪開始提供額外的順風，我想我們會更願意談論 100% 或 100% 以上。但現階段，我會堅持 95%。

Yeah. And we're early in the journey on inventory improvement. So over time, we're going to go make some progress there.

是的。我們在庫存改進方面才剛起步。所以隨著時間的推移，我們將會取得一些進展。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the call back over to Joakim Weidemanis for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給 Joakim Weidemanis，請他發表最後評論。

Well, thank you all for your questions. We have an exciting future ahead of us here at Johnson Controls. We have a lot of work underway, as you heard, and many opportunities to unlock. With a culture centered around our growth business system, I'm confident that our increased focus on our customers will allow us to continue to win with them.

好吧，謝謝大家的提問。在江森自控，我們擁有令人興奮的未來。正如您所聽到的，我們正在進行大量工作，並且還有很多機會有待發掘。憑藉以我們的成長業務系統為中心的文化，我相信，我們對客戶的更多關注將使我們能夠繼續與他們共贏。

I'd like to take a moment to thank our 100,000 team members around the world. You are the foundation of our company, and I'm confident for what the future has in store. I look forward to continuing my conversations with all of our stakeholders. Thank you. Thank you all.

我想花點時間感謝我們遍布全球的 100,000 名團隊成員。你們是我們公司的基礎，我對未來充滿信心。我期待繼續與我們所有的利害關係人進行對話。謝謝。謝謝大家。

This now concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。