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Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to JBT Marel's earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. My name is Pam, and I will be your conference operator today. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session.
早安,歡迎參加 JBT Marel 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我叫帕姆,今天我將擔任您的會議接線生。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音。目前,所有線路均已靜音,以防止任何背景噪音。演講者發言後,將進行問答環節。
I will now turn the call over to JBT Marel's, Director of Investor Relations, Marlee Spangler to begin today's conference.
現在,我將把電話轉給 JBT Marel 的投資者關係總監 Marlee Spangler,開始今天的會議。
Marlee Spangler - Director of Investor Relations
Marlee Spangler - Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, Pam. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. With me on the call today is our: Chief Executive Officer, Brian Deck; President, Arni Sigurdsson; and Chief Financial Officer, Matt Meister. In today's call, we will use forward-looking statements that are subject to the Safe Harbor language in yesterday's press release and 8-K filing.
謝謝你,帕姆。大家早安,感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有:執行長 Brian Deck;總裁 Arni Sigurdsson;和財務長 Matt Meister。在今天的電話會議中,我們將使用受昨天新聞稿和 8-K 文件中安全港語言約束的前瞻性陳述。
JBT Marel periodic SEC filings also contain information regarding risk factors that may have an impact on our results. These documents are available in the investor relations section of our website.
JBT Marel 定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件還包含可能對我們的結果產生影響的風險因素的資訊。這些文件可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。
Also, our discussion today includes references to certain non-gap and non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP in IFRS measures can be found in the investor relations section of our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.
此外,我們今天的討論還涉及某些非差距和非國際財務報告準則措施。您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到這些指標與 IFRS 指標中最具可比性的 GAAP 指標之間的對帳。說完這些,我將把電話轉給布萊恩。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks Marlee and good morning. We are excited to be hosting our first earnings call since uniting JBT and Marel.
謝謝 Marlee,早安。我們很高興能夠召開 JBT 和 Marel 合併以來的首次收益電話會議。
The combination, which we completed on January 2, represents the culmination of more than a year of work bringing together two leaders in the food technology industry. We are now seven weeks into integration and are increasingly confident in our ability to generate long-term value for our customers, shareholders, and other stakeholders.
此次合併於 1 月 2 日完成,是我們一年多來將食品科技產業的兩大領導者聚集在一起的努力的成果。目前,我們已經進入整合七週,並且對我們為客戶、股東和其他利害關係人創造長期價值的能力越來越有信心。
Given our focus on realizing the benefits of this combination, I will begin today's call providing an update on our progress. Then, Arni will provide color on the integration process and talk about Marel's 2024 performance. Lastly, Matt will provide an overview of JBT's 2024 performance, followed by guidance for the combined company in 2025.
鑑於我們專注於實現這一組合的優勢,我將在今天的電話會議上介紹我們的進展。然後,Arni 將介紹整合過程並談論 Marel 2024 年的表現。最後,馬特將概述 JBT 2024 年的業績,並對合併後的公司在 2025 年的發展做出指導。
In uniting JBT and Marel, we have the ability to be an even more valuable partner to our global customers by providing holistic equipment solutions with enhanced application knowledge, service capabilities, and innovative technologies.
JBT 和 Marel 合併後,我們將能夠透過提供具有增強的應用知識、服務能力和創新技術的整體設備解決方案,成為全球客戶更有價值的合作夥伴。
In terms of integration, our efforts are focused on best serving our customers' constantly evolving needs. That starts with a purpose-built company leveraging talent from both organizations. We have already made significant progress establishing the JBT Marel's organizational design and expect to be materially complete by the end of March.
在整合方面,我們的努力重點是最好地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。首先要建立一個專門的公司,利用兩個組織的人才。我們在建立 JBT Marel 的組織設計方面已取得重大進展,預計將於 3 月底基本完成。
We're also focusing on a customer-centric go to market commercial strategy that adopts an end market focus. This will allow us to cross sell the breadth of our solutions. We believe this customer-driven approach, versus one organized by technology, will streamline our commercial presence and enhance our value proposition to the customer.
我們也著重以客戶為中心的市場商業策略,採用終端市場為重點。這將使我們能夠交叉銷售我們的各種解決方案。我們相信,這種以客戶為導向的方法(而非以技術為主導的方法)將簡化我們的商業形象並增強我們對客戶的價值主張。
In fact, our diverse technology solutions were on full display at the recent IPPE trade show, otherwise known as the poultry show. The combination of JBT and Marel's complementary portfolio of innovative technology and service capabilities allows us to integrate primary, secondary, further, and end of line processing under one brand.
事實上,我們多樣化的技術解決方案在最近的 IPPE 貿易展(也稱為家禽展)上得到了充分展示。JBT 和 Marel 的創新技術和服務能力互補,使我們能夠將初級、二級、進一步和終端加工整合在一個品牌下。
This matters for our customers as it reduces the complex engineering required to integrate and commission full line solutions. It also leads to improved operational efficiency, machine up-time, and traceability in high volume operations. Additionally, our software and digital solutions are a differentiator as customers increasingly adopt digital technologies to optimize processing efficiency and improve profitability.
這對我們的客戶來說很重要,因為它減少了整合和調試全線解決方案所需的複雜工程。它還可以提高營運效率、機器正常運作時間和大批量操作的可追溯性。此外,隨著客戶越來越多地採用數位技術來優化處理效率和提高獲利能力,我們的軟體和數位解決方案也成為差異化因素。
Overall, our many productive conversations at IPPE, along with the recently reported financial results of our customers, confirm the strong fundamentals of the poultry industry. We believe we will incremental investment in 2025 as customers look to take advantage of our technology to support automation and efficient operations by investing in existing facilities as well as consider greenfield opportunities in a more meaningful way than we have seen in some time.
總體而言,我們在 IPPE 進行的多次富有成效的對話以及我們客戶最近報告的財務業績證實了家禽業強勁的基本面。我們相信,我們將在 2025 年增加投資,因為客戶希望利用我們的技術,透過投資現有設施來支援自動化和高效運營,並以比我們之前所見更有意義的方式考慮綠地機會。
I am pleased that we are already seeing the commercial strategies created by the combination. We secured a few significant orders at IPPE that included equipment we booked on the strength of each other's existing relationships.
我很高興我們已經看到了此次合併所創造的商業策略。我們在 IPPE 獲得了一些重要的訂單,其中包括我們利用彼此現有的關係預訂的設備。
Speaking of orders, as you saw on our earnings release, JBT reported record orders of $523 million in the fourth quarter. Marel also reported record orders of EUR474 million. Together, orders totalled more than $1 billion for the period, benefiting from broad-based strength.
說到訂單,正如您在我們的收益報告中看到的,JBT 報告第四季度的訂單量達到創紀錄的 5.23 億美元。Marel 還報告了創紀錄的 4.74 億歐元訂單。由於廣泛的市場力量,該期間的訂單總額超過 10 億美元。
Geographically, we enjoy the pick up globally with the sole exception of Asia Pacific. From an end market perspective, as already mentioned, the poultry industry remains strong in the fourth quarter and is expected to improve further in 2025. Other proteins, we enjoyed a very solid quarter for both meat and fish. While the fundamentals of these markets remain uncertain, we are starting to see increased pipeline activity for pork and remain confident in the long-term fundamentals for fish.
從地理上看,除亞太地區外,全球其他地區均呈現成長動能。從終端市場角度來看,如前所述,家禽業在第四季依然保持強勁,預計 2025 年將進一步改善。其他蛋白質方面,肉類和魚類在本季均表現穩健。儘管這些市場的基本面仍不確定,但我們開始看到豬肉的渠道活動增加,並對魚類的長期基本面充滿信心。
We also enjoyed strong order demand in the fruit and vegetable and pharmaceutical markets which have continued into the first quarter of 2025. While the beverage and market was weaker through most of 2024 due to challenging industry fundamentals, we saw some pickup exiting the year.
我們也享受了水果蔬菜和醫藥市場的強勁訂單需求,這種需求一直持續到 2025 年第一季。儘管由於行業基本面嚴峻,飲料和市場在 2024 年的大部分時間都處於疲軟狀態,但我們看到年底有所回升。
Lastly, both poo lastly, both pet food and ready meals performed well in the quarter, while AGV, our automated material handling business, experienced another solid quarter of demand.
最後,寵物食品和即食食品在本季度均表現良好,而我們的自動化物料搬運業務 AGV 又經歷了一個強勁季度的需求。
Our positive view on the key and markets must be balanced against macro concerns, including US and potential retaliatory tariffs and the prospect of higher inflation. However, we believe that end market dynamics are generally favorable for investment, while our recurring revenue franchise for parts and service is expected to provide resilience, growth, and close to 50% of our total revenue.
我們對關鍵市場的正面看法必須與宏觀擔憂相平衡,包括美國和潛在的報復性關稅以及通膨上升的前景。然而,我們認為終端市場動態總體上有利於投資,而我們的零件和服務經常性收入特許經營預計將提供彈性、成長,並接近我們總收入的 50%。
Most importantly, we are increasingly confident in the value created by this combination as it relates to serving our customers. Now let me turn the call over to Arni.
最重要的是,我們對這個組合在服務客戶方面所創造的價值越來越有信心。現在讓我把電話轉給阿尼。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Brian.
謝謝,布萊恩。
When JBT and Marel began exploring the potential to combine the two businesses, it quickly became clear that we share a common purpose, which is to transform the future of food. We achieve that purpose by helping our customers improve their operations, solutions of time, and sustainable processes. I'm very pleased to see and experience the momentum generated in just the first few weeks as JBT Marel.
當 JBT 和 Marel 開始探索合併兩家公司的可能性時,我們很快就發現我們有一個共同的目標,那就是改變食物的未來。我們透過幫助客戶改善營運、時間解決方案和永續流程來實現這一目標。我很高興看到並體驗到 JBT Marel 在最初幾週所形成的強勁勢頭。
Right after finalizing the transaction, we launched our new JBT Marel brand. We also introduced our new purpose, vision, and values which resonated well with our teams as it builds on the two company cultures while we transition to a new and exciting future. We also went on the roads hosting Welcome Days at key locations around the world, introducing the leadership team and the strategic pillars of JBT Marel. It was a great success, and I'm excited about the future.
交易完成後,我們立即推出了新的 JBT Marel 品牌。我們也介紹了新的目標、願景和價值觀,這些都與我們的團隊產生了共鳴,因為它建立在兩種公司文化的基礎上,同時我們正向一個全新而令人興奮的未來過渡。我們也拜訪了世界各地的主要地點舉辦歡迎日活動,介紹 JBT Marel 的領導團隊和策略支柱。這是一次巨大的成功,我對未來充滿期待。
We also recognize the respective strengths that each company brings to the table that makes this combination so exciting. For example, I'm very proud of the reputation that model has for its industry leading technology and ongoing investment in innovation. And JBT, beyond its technology brings a highly disciplined and efficient operational culture focused on continuous improvement.
我們也認識到每家公司各自的優勢,使得這個組合如此令人興奮。例如,我對該模型因其行業領先的技術和持續的創新投資而享有的聲譽感到非常自豪。JBT 除了技術之外,還帶來了高度自律、高效的營運文化,專注於持續改善。
We realize that a combination of this scale requires rigorous execution and oversight by an experienced team of operators across the organization. The integration teams are co-led by top talent from our respective legacy organizations and report directly to Brian and me.
我們意識到,這種規模的組合需要整個組織內經驗豐富的營運團隊的嚴格執行和監督。整合團隊由我們各自原有組織的頂尖人才共同領導,並直接向 Brian 和我報告。
Throughout this integration, our highest priority is to ensure business continuity and a seamless experience for our customers. Moreover, we are focused on cultural integration as our talented teams across the world represent our greatest asset. Since the close of the transaction, we have been able to have full transparency with one another, allowing us to do a deeper analysis into the benefits of the combination.
在整個整合過程中,我們的首要任務是確保業務連續性和客戶的無縫體驗。此外,我們注重文化融合,因為我們遍佈全球的優秀團隊是我們最大的財富。自交易結束以來,我們彼此之間一直保持著完全的透明度,這使我們能夠更深入地分析合併的好處。
Based on this extensive work, we have raised our expectations for cost synergies to an annual run rate savings of $150 million and that's by the end of year three. That compares with our prior guidance of greater than $125 million. Most of that increase is the result of supply chain savings as we leverage our purchasing power and optimize our combined footprint.
基於這項廣泛的工作,我們將成本綜效的預期提高到每年節省 1.5 億美元的運行率,並且到第三年年底即可實現。相比之下,我們先前的指導金額為 1.25 億美元以上。這一增長大部分是由於我們利用了購買力並優化了綜合足跡,從而節省了供應鏈成本。
Looking at Marel's performance in 2024, I'm happy to report that we had a strong fourth quarter to the year. On an IFRS basis, record orders of EUR474 million increased 18% sequentially and reflect the improvement we have been expecting. We saw sequential growth in orders for meat, fish, and pet food, while poultry had another healthy quarter. The strong book to bill of 1.11 increased the order book 8% sequentially to EUR600 million.
回顧 Marel 在 2024 年的表現,我很高興地報告,我們今年第四季表現強勁。根據國際財務報告準則 (IFRS),創紀錄的訂單金額達 4.74 億歐元,較上季成長 18%,反映了我們預期的改善。我們看到肉類、魚類和寵物食品的訂單連續增長,而家禽迎來了一個健康的季度。訂單出貨比高達 1.11,訂單金額較上季成長 8%,達到 6 億歐元。
Marel's full year revenue of EUR1.64 billion declined 4.6% compared to the prior year due to lower project revenues. At the same time, there were continued gains in recurring revenue with a record fourth quarter. For the full year, recurring revenues were EUR821 million and grew 5%. Full year adjusted EBITDAof EUR200 million included a net year-end adjustment of EUR17 million resulting from initial efforts to align policies related to balance sheet reserves as a part of our combination with JBT.
由於專案收入減少,Marel 全年收入為 16.4 億歐元,較前一年下降 4.6%。同時,經常性收入持續成長,第四季創下紀錄。全年經常性收入為 8.21 億歐元,成長 5%。全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 2 億歐元,其中包括 1,700 萬歐元的年末淨調整,這是由於我們與 JBT 合併後最初努力調整與資產負債表儲備相關的政策而產生的。
Underlying performance improved year over year as a result of cost discipline and efficiency improvements. Excluding the balance sheet adjustments, models, adjusted EBITDA margin for 2024 was in line with our most recent guidance of 13% to 14%.
由於成本控制和效率提高,基本績效逐年改善。不包括資產負債表調整和模型,2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與我們最近的 13% 至 14% 的預期一致。
I want to take this opportunity to commend the dedication and valuable contribution of our teams across the world. We are excited by legacy Marel's momentum entering 2025 underpinned by order growth and strengthening order book and our ability as JBT Marel to do even greater things for our customers with the combined and highly complementary product portfolios.
我想藉此機會讚揚我們世界各地團隊的奉獻精神和寶貴貢獻。我們對 Marel 進入 2025 年的勢頭感到興奮,這得益於訂單的增長和訂單量的增加,以及我們作為 JBT Marel 憑藉綜合且高度互補的產品組合為客戶做更偉大事情的能力。
With that, let me turn the call over to Matt.
說完這些,讓我把電話轉給馬特。
Matthew Meister - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Matthew Meister - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Arni, and good morning.
謝謝,阿尼,早安。
Let me begin with a quick recap of JBT's performance in 2024. We ended the year with extremely strong orders in the fourth quarter, up 25% year over year and 19% sequentially. For the full year, orders increased 7%. JBT's full year revenue increased 3%, or about 3.5% organically, excluding the impact of foreign exchange.
首先,讓我簡單回顧一下 JBT 在 2024 年的表現。我們以第四季度極其強勁的訂單量結束了這一財年,訂單量同比增長 25%,環比增長 19%。全年訂單成長7%。剔除外匯影響,JBT 全年營收成長 3%,有機成長約 3.5%。
The adjusted EBITDA of $295 million increased 8%. The adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2% for the year was an improvement of 80 basis points driven by supply chain savings and continuous improvement initiatives.
調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.95 億美元,成長 8%。全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 17.2%,在供應鏈節省和持續改善措施的推動下提高了 80 個基點。
Specific to the fourth quarter, our results came in at the lower end of our guidance due to a mix of lower than expected volume on quick turn, book and ship revenue, and some delayed equipment shipments. On the expense side, we had higher than expected employee healthcare costs. That said, adjusted EBITDA margins for the quarter were 19.7%, which represented 150 basis point improvement over the prior year.
具體到第四季度,由於快速週轉量、訂單和船舶收入低於預期以及一些設備發貨延遲,我們的業績處於預期的低端。在支出方面,我們的員工醫療保健成本高於預期。也就是說,本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 19.7%,比前一年提高了 150 個基點。
Beginning in 2025, we are revising our adjusted EPS calculation to exclude acquisition-related items such as intangible amortization expense. We believe this change will better reflect our core operating earnings and improve comparability versus peers. When further adjusted for this change, JBT 2024 standalone adjusted EPS would have been $6.15, compared to the reported figure of $5.10.
從 2025 年開始,我們將修改調整後的每股盈餘計算方法,以排除與收購相關的項目,例如無形資產攤銷費用。我們相信這項變更將更能反映我們的核心營業收入並提高與同業的可比性。進一步調整此變更後,JBT 2024 獨立調整後每股收益將為 6.15 美元,而報告的數字為 5.10 美元。
Finally for 2024, we delivered strong cash flow performance driven by more efficient management inventory and higher deposits from the strong order growth. For the year, we generated a free cash flow of $199 million an increase of 20% from the prior year period.
最後,在 2024 年,我們實現了強勁的現金流表現,這得益於更有效率的管理庫存和強勁的訂單成長帶來的更高存款。今年,我們產生了 1.99 億美元的自由現金流,比去年同期成長了 20%。
Now let's move to the results and expectations for the combined JBT Marel business. On a combined basis, which reflects adjustments to align Marel's IFRS results with USA GAAP 2024 results were as follows: orders of $3.6 billion, revenue of $3.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $479 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.7%.
現在讓我們來看看合併後的 JBT Marel 業務的表現和預期。綜合來看,為了讓 Marel 的 IFRS 結果與美國 GAAP 2024 結果保持一致,我們進行瞭如下調整:訂單額為 36 億美元,收入為 35 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 4.79 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 13.7%。
2025, we are forecasting full year revenue growth on a constant currency basis of 4.5% to 16.5%, which excludes a projected negative foreign exchange impact of approximately $75 million or 2% due to the recent strength in the US dollar.
2025 年,我們預測全年營收將以固定匯率成長 4.5% 至 16.5%,這不包括由於近期美元走強而預計約 7,500 萬美元或 2% 的負面外匯影響。
We are guiding to adjust EBITDA margin of 15.75% to 16.5% in 2025, which represents more than 200 basis points of improvement. We expect to realize cost synergies of $35 million to $40 million in 2025, and next in the year estimate achieving run rate synergies of $80 million to $90 million.
我們預計 2025 年 EBITDA 利潤率將從 15.75% 調整至 16.5%,這意味著將提高 200 個基點以上。我們預計 2025 年將實現 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元的成本綜效,明年預計將達到 8,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元的運行率綜效。
For the full year, we are projecting adjusted EPS of $5.50 to $6.10 includes certain one-time items and acquisition-related costs, which were outlined in yesterday's press release and investor presentation.
就全年而言,我們預計調整後的每股收益為 5.50 美元至 6.10 美元,其中包括某些一次性項目和收購相關成本,這些已在昨天的新聞稿和投資者報告中概述。
For the first quarter of 2025, we expect revenues to be in the range of $820 million to $850 million inclusive of an estimated negative $23 million of year over year FX translation impact. The first quarter is historically JBT's seasonally lightest. For Marel, pick up and orders occurred in late 2024. And given the large project nature of its business, the conversion time from order to revenue is longer. We are forecasting adjusted margins of 12% to 13% and adjusted EPS in the range of $0.70 to $0.90.
對於 2025 年第一季度,我們預計營收將在 8.2 億美元至 8.5 億美元之間,其中包括預計同比外匯翻譯造成的 2,300 萬美元的負面影響。從歷史上看,第一季是 JBT 業務最淡的季度。對 Marel 來說,提貨和訂單發生在 2024 年底。而且由於其業務屬於大專案性質,從訂單到收入的轉換時間較長。我們預測調整後的利潤率將在 12% 至 13% 之間,調整後的每股盈餘將在 0.70 美元至 0.90 美元之間。
On the balance sheet, we expect CapEx backs of $90 million to $100 million for the year. Starting leverage post merger was just under four times, which excludes the benefit of any projected synergies. We continue to expect to deliver to below three times by year end 2025 due to higher adjusted EBITDA, which includes realized cost energies and strong cash flow generation.
在資產負債表上,我們預計今年的資本支出將達到 9,000 萬至 1 億美元。合併後的起始槓桿率略低於四倍,這還不包括任何預期的綜效帶來的好處。由於調整後的 EBITDA 較高(包括已實現的成本能量和強勁的現金流產生),我們仍預計到 2025 年底交付量將低於三倍。
Let me turn the call back to Brian for some concluding remarks.
讓我把電話轉回給布萊恩,請他發表一些總結性的評論。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, man.
謝謝,老兄。
There's been a tremendous amount of hard work getting to this point where we can leverage our combined expertise and achieve more for our employees, customers, and communities at JBT Marel. Together we've established an unmatched position across the value chain as the premier global food and beverage solutions provider.
我們付出了巨大的努力才達到今天的地步,現在我們可以利用我們的綜合專業知識,為 JBT Marel 的員工、客戶和社區取得更多成就。我們共同在整個價值鏈中確立了無與倫比的地位,成為全球首屈一指的食品和飲料解決方案提供者。
Thank you to everyone across the organization for all you've done. We look forward to the exciting things to come as we transform the future of food.
感謝組織內所有人所做的一切。我們期待在改變食品未來的過程中發生令人興奮的事情。
Now, let's open the call to questions, operator.
現在,接線員,讓我們開始提問環節。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We'll now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions).
謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。(操作員指令)。
And your first question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
您的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Saree Boroditsky。請繼續。
Saree Boroditsky - Analyst
Saree Boroditsky - Analyst
So I wanted to touch on the synergy. So you are now kind of two months into owning Marel and you are able to increase the cost synergy guidance on the kind of supply chain synergies. So can you talk more about what gave you confidence to raise the guidance, like a little bit more color on the supply synergies, and was there a lot of like low hanging fruits that you were able to identify after owning them? Thank you.
所以我想談談協同作用。因此,您現在已經擁有 Marel 兩個月了,並且能夠提高供應鏈協同效應的成本協同指導。那麼,您能否進一步談談是什麼讓您有信心提高指導價格,例如對供應協同效應進行更詳細的說明,以及在擁有它們之後,您是否能夠識別出很多唾手可得的成果?謝謝。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, good question. So we've been working together, the two companies, for the last year or so, but there have been certain limitations on vendor names, customer names, etc. That until we combined we were able to have access to. So after getting access to that, we were really able to determine our strategy as it relates to supply chain savings and including some of the early hits. We do feel that that $38 million, $35 million to $40 million first year savings will include some early hits on the supply chain side as well as some of the organizational design things that we're doing. So it really, the confidence really came along from access to information that we otherwise didn't have in the past.
是的,好問題。所以我們兩家公司在過去一年左右的時間裡一直在合作,但在供應商名稱、客戶名稱等方面有一定的限制。直到我們合併後,我們才能夠存取這些限制。因此,在獲得這些資訊之後,我們真正能夠確定與供應鏈節約相關的策略,包括一些早期的打擊。我們確實認為,第一年的 3800 萬美元、3500 萬美元到 4000 萬美元的節省將包括供應鏈方面的一些早期投入以及我們正在進行的一些組織設計工作。所以,信心其實來自於獲取我們過去無法獲得的資訊。
Saree Boroditsky - Analyst
Saree Boroditsky - Analyst
Got it. Great, thanks for the caller and I guess kind of staying on the synergy on more on the revenue side, I think you notice some benefit to like customers like providing like integrated solutions and opportunities to kind of cross sell. So can you provide more color on kind of revenue synergy opportunities?
知道了。太好了,謝謝來電者,我想在收入方面繼續保持協同效應,我認為您會注意到為客戶提供一些好處,例如提供整合解決方案和交叉銷售的機會。那麼您能否提供更多關於收入協同機會的詳細資訊?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, we're really excited about this. So, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we had a really excellent, IPPE show, the poultry show, and the conversations were great and frankly, the thing that was most exciting about it was the way our commercial teams interacted with one another. They really fell right into understanding each other's product lines. We obviously have experts across the industry, so it was fairly natural for them to be able to engage in conversations with customers on a combined basis.
是的,我們對此感到非常興奮。因此,正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我們舉辦了一場非常精彩的 IPPE 展會和家禽展會,而且對話非常精彩,坦率地說,最令人興奮的是我們的商務團隊之間的互動方式。他們確實完全了解彼此的產品線。我們顯然擁有整個行業的專家,因此他們能夠以聯合的方式與客戶進行對話是很自然的。
And as part of that, what we also found was each company, a legacy company has some particularly strong relationships with certain customers, and that really facilitated conversations about providing either JBT or Marel solution to some of the projects that they were considering that perhaps they had not considered one or the other in the past.
作為其中的一部分,我們還發現,每家公司,一家傳統公司,都與某些客戶有著特別牢固的關係,這確實促進了關於為他們正在考慮的一些項目提供 JBT 或 Marel 解決方案的對話,而他們過去可能沒有考慮過其中任何一個。
So that was that really developed nicely. And then I would say, we announced earlier $75 million of revenue synergies by year three. We haven't updated that, but we are taking a close look at it again now that we have access to customer data and conversations on a more combined basis. We are taking a review of that and we'll follow up in the next quarter to what that means.
所以這確實進展順利。然後我想說,我們早些時候宣布,到第三年將實現 7500 萬美元的收入協同效應。我們還沒有更新這一點,但現在我們可以更綜合地存取客戶資料和對話,因此我們正在再次仔細研究它。我們正在對此進行審查,並將在下個季度跟進其含義。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
And just briefly to add on that, I think what was exciting around kind of what we heard and saw and experience at IPPE was a lot of conversation in the prepared foods area where our portfolio is quite complementary and we've talked in the past, for example, a chicken nugget line, when you just see kind of the different technologies across that same line. So that's where we saw some interesting opportunities which was really kind of confirming what we believe, but it was just nice to see that really happen.
簡單補充一下,我認為我們在 IPPE 上聽到、看到和體驗到的令人興奮的事情是,我們在預製食品領域進行了很多對話,我們的產品組合非常互補,我們過去也討論過,例如雞塊生產線,你會看到同一條生產線上採用的不同技術。所以,我們看到了一些有趣的機會,這確實證實了我們的信念,但很高興看到它真的發生了。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Mircea Dobre with Bairds. Please go ahead.
您的下一個問題來自 Bairds 的 Mircea Dobre。請繼續。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and, I'll apologize in advance. I actually have a bunch of questions, so hopefully you or me here. I guess maybe we can start with a clarification. Maybe I missed this in the guidance slides, but free cash flow for '25, how should we think about that. Yeah, let's start with that. Let's start with free cash flow.
謝謝。大家早安,我提前向大家致歉。我實際上有很多問題,所以希望你或我在這裡。我想也許我們可以先澄清一下。也許我在指導幻燈片中錯過了這一點,但是對於 25 年的自由現金流,我們該如何考慮呢?是的,我們就從那裡開始吧。讓我們從自由現金流開始。
Matthew Meister - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Matthew Meister - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, Mircea, I think from a free cash flow perspective it's still a little early for us to provide sort of specific numbers around that. I'd say as we try to get a better feel for how the cadence and cash flows will go through the year. But I think the fundamentals of the business of both businesses together still remain strong with relatively low CapEx, high recurring revenue, and deposits from customers. And so when we account for some of the one-time items on the P&L side, our expectation is that we should be able to achieve a 100% free cash flow for the year.
是的,米爾恰,我認為從自由現金流的角度來看,現在提供具體的數字還為時過早。我想說的是,我們試著更了解今年的節奏和現金流將如何發展。但我認為,兩家公司業務的基本面仍然強勁,資本支出相對較低,經常性收入較高,並且有來自客戶的存款。因此,當我們在損益表中考慮一些一次性項目時,我們的預期是,我們應該能夠實現當年 100% 的自由現金流。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And adjusted net income, right. So yeah, so we'll provide more guidance, but if you think about the general profile of this business make, it's still quite attractive when you think about the the math just between the cap expenditure versus the depreciation and kind of how that how that flows, we will have a lot of one-time costs in 2025 as as mentioned in the in the press release, but if you kind of look away from that. It's certainly a profile of more than 100% of adjusted net income.
以及調整後的淨收入,對吧。是的,我們會提供更多指導,但如果你考慮一下這個業務的總體概況,當你考慮上限支出與折舊之間的數學關係以及它如何流動時,它仍然很有吸引力,正如新聞稿中提到的那樣,我們將在 2025 年產生大量一次性成本,但如果你把目光從這一點上移開。這肯定是一份超過 100% 調整後淨收入的概況。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
That's helpful. One of the things that also stood out to me was the order intake, right, for, I think Marelhad a bit of a tough comp and yet they were able to grow off of that. You had quite a bit of growth in legacy JBT.
這很有幫助。令我印象深刻的一件事是訂單量,對吧,我認為 Marel 的競爭有點激烈,但他們能夠從中發展。您在傳統 JBT 方面取得了相當大的進步。
Maybe talk a little bit about what's what's going on here. We heard from you that the poultry markets are getting better, but I guess it's more than just poultry, and the question here is on sustainability into 2025. Has has this quota simply been a bit unusual? Was there like a CapEx flush or something like that that helped you out, or are these trends kind of sustaining into Q1? I mean, we're almost through February. What have you seen in Q1 thus far?
也許可以稍微談談一下這裡發生的事情。我們從您那裡聽說家禽市場正在好轉,但我想這不僅僅是家禽的問題,這裡的問題是關於 2025 年的可持續性。這個配額是不是有點不尋常?是否有類似資本支出或類似的東西對您有所幫助,或者這些趨勢是否會持續到第一季?我的意思是,我們快要度過二月了。到目前為止,您在第一季看到了什麼?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure, I'll provide some comments on legacy JBT and Arni can provide a little bit on legacy Marel and kind of how we're thinking about this going forward. So on the JBT side, what we normally see is, I'm talking from a market perspective, there's always pluses and minuses, fruit and juice is up, maybe beverages down. And that's since I've been here, that's always been the case because these are lumpy projects often, so you see a lot of variability and and almost magically it kind of evens out by the end of the quarter.
當然,我會對傳統 JBT 提供一些評論,Arni 可以提供一些關於傳統 Marel 的評論,以及我們對未來的看法。因此,在 JBT 方面,我們通常看到的是,從市場角度來說,總是有優點和缺點,水果和果汁上漲,飲料可能會下跌。自從我來到這裡以來,情況一直都是這樣,因為這些項目通常都是不均勻的,所以你會看到很多變化,而且幾乎神奇的是,到本季度末,情況就會趨於平穩。
However, in the fourth quarter, there was really no weak markets, which is quite unusual. So everything kind of hit. We mentioned ready meals, pet food, our AGV business, fruit and juice, even beverage improved in the quarter. Poultry remains strong. So it really kind of, just, flew through, flow through it in a nice way.
不過,第四季確實沒有出現市場疲軟的情況,這是相當不尋常的。所以一切都很順利。我們提到,即食食品、寵物食品、我們的 AGV 業務、水果和果汁,甚至飲料在本季度都有所改善。家禽市場依然強勁。所以它真的就像是以一種很好的方式飛過、流過。
I can't say this is a CapEx stump, but here's the way I think of it generally. Is a $900 million is kind of the baseline for us, right, and that billion dollars in the month was extraordinarily strong. So I still think we're going to coalesce around that number plus or minus and there'll still be variability given the lumpy nature of our business. So I do think there'll be some general reversion. But overall, the markets are strong right now, and I put the caveat about regarding, tariffs and whatnot, but kind of aside from that, conditions do seem strong.
我不能說這是一個資本支出難題,但這是我通常的看法。9 億美元對我們來說是基準,對吧,本月 10 億美元的營收非常強勁。因此,我仍然認為我們將圍繞這個數字上下調整,並且考慮到我們業務的波動性,仍然會存在差異。所以我確實認為會出現一些普遍的回歸。但總體而言,目前市場表現強勁,我對關稅等提出了警告,但除此之外,情況確實看起來很強勁。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, and on the Marel side, obviously very pleased with the orders in the quarter and poultry, the poultry market continues to be quite attractive. And we see that if you look at the results of some of our customers, I mean they're showing very robust numbers on the poultry side, so that continues to be healthy in the fourth quarter for us. But then if we look at it sequentially, then we saw improvement in in the other segments as well on the model side.
是的,就 Marel 方面而言,顯然對本季的訂單和家禽非常滿意,家禽市場仍然相當有吸引力。我們發現,如果你看我們一些客戶的業績,你會發現他們在家禽方面表現非常強勁,因此對於我們來說,第四季度的業績仍然保持健康。但如果我們按順序來看,我們就會發現模型方面的其他部分也有所改進。
And what I would say is is on the poor side of the market sentiment is improving, but kind of from a very low level there is kind of with the low investment that has been there for throughout the cycle, there needs to be at some point catch up on and kind of renewing the install base and more automation. And we kind of consolidation in Europe is in the final steps. We saw improved pipeline in the fourth quarter on the park side, so that was kind of encouraging. I mean, fish also improved sequentially, but I think I'm not as confident about the market there yet, even though we really believe in the fundamentals of that market.
我想說的是,市場情緒雖然有所改善,但處於非常低的水平,整個週期內都存在低投資,因此需要在某些時候迎頭趕上,更新安裝基礎並提高自動化程度。我們在歐洲的整合工作已進入最後階段。我們看到第四季公園方面的管道有所改善,這令人鼓舞。我的意思是,魚類也隨之改善,但我認為我對那裡的市場還不那麼有信心,儘管我們確實相信該市場的基本面。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Mircea, just to clarify that $900 million dollar baseline, that's the combined company, quarterly, kind of, I'll say baseline if you will for orders.
米爾恰,我只是想澄清一下,9 億美元的基準是合併後的公司季度訂單基準。如果你願意的話,我會稱之為訂單基準。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Thank you for the clarification there, and I want to move on to your outlook, your guidance.
感謝您的澄清,我想繼續了解您的觀點和指導。
Apologize for the numbers and the math here, but I'm trying to understand the moving pieces, right? So at the midpoint, your EBITDA, you're guiding at $582 million on a combined basis, the company has done pro forma $479 million. So we're looking at $103 million of EBITDA growth. 37 of that is synergies, so the rest of it, 66 would be the lift from the two businesses. When we look at this 66, how much of it comes from legacy JBT versus the lift in Marel's business relative to the prior year?
對於這裡的數字和數學,我深表歉意,但我正在嘗試理解其中的移動部分,對嗎?因此,以中間值計算,您的 EBITDA 預計為 5.82 億美元,而公司實際完成金額為 4.79 億美元。因此,我們預期 EBITDA 將成長 1.03 億美元。其中 37% 是綜效,其餘 66% 是兩家企業共同創造的收益。當我們看這 66 時,其中有多少來自傳統的 JBT,有多少來自 Marel 業務相對於上一年的成長?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I think the starting point on the 479 for 2024, Mircea, is you have to adjust for the year end piece at Marel is about $20 million or so, 17, USD20 million of sort of year-end adjustments. You kind of add that back as a starting point. So you're kind of starting closer to $500 million for the combined company, and then you add in the synergies.
是的,我認為 2024 年 479 的起點,Mircea,你必須調整 Marel 的年終部分,大約是 2000 萬美元左右,1700 萬到 2000 萬美元的年終調整。您可以將其添加回來作為起點。因此,合併後公司的起始價接近 5 億美元,然後再考慮綜效。
So now you're at 538, so now you're kind of doing the math off of that number and so the flow through from the combined business is closer to like 35% to 40% and it's a little higher than we would typically expect for flow through on the combined business, but there is a benefit from Marel on some of the restructuring activities that they took in 2024 that's also coming through and we estimate that sort of around $8 million to $10 million in 2025.
現在數量是 538,所以現在你根據這個數字進行計算,合併後業務的流量接近 35% 到 40%,這比我們通常預期的合併後業務的流量要高一點,但 Marel 在 2024 年進行的一些重組活動也帶來了好處,我們估計 2025 年的收益將在 800 萬美元到 1000 萬美元左右。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Right? So you've got the benefit of the synergies, the volume, as well as some of the, I'll say rollover of some of the actions that Marel took in last year. So overall, I'll see more of the improvement is coming from the Marel side giving some given some of the a little bit higher growth rate in their forecasted revenues versus JBT because of the recovery, continued recovery of the poultry market, as well as some of the restructuring actions that they took last year which will flow into this year.
正確的?因此,您獲得了協同效應、產量以及 Marel 去年採取的一些行動的延續性優勢。因此,總體而言,我認為 Marel 方面將取得更多進步,因為受家禽市場復甦和持續復甦的影響,以及他們去年採取的一些重組措施將延續到今年,因此他們的預測收入成長率將比 JBT 略高一些。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Well, to be honest with you, based on what you've just told me, to me it seems like it's the opposite, where, you end up with ex synergies, you end up with maybe like less than $50 million of EBITDA list, but a good chunk of that would probably come just from JBT and the growth that you have on your business, assuming normal incremental margins on that organic revenue growth. Which I mean maybe I'm missing something or you're just being conservative, which is perfectly fine, just looking to make sure that we understand the moving pieces.
嗯,老實說,根據您剛才告訴我的情況,在我看來,情況似乎恰恰相反,您最終會獲得協同效應,最終的 EBITDA 可能不到 5000 萬美元,但其中很大一部分可能僅來自 JBT 和您的業務增長,假設有機收入增長的增量利潤率正常。我的意思是,也許我忽略了一些東西,或者你只是比較保守,這完全沒問題,只是想確保我們了解其中的動態。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, so the, so I think we've given revenue guidance for the two businesses individually and if you look at that and apply, generally you apply 30%-ish flow through on that incremental volume and then from there, you add on the benefit of the synergies and whatnot. So take a look. We're happy to walk through in more detail as we go from here, but our math shows a little bit more contribution from the Marel side than the JBT side, at least from an EBITDA perspective.
是的,所以,所以我認為我們已經為這兩項業務分別給出了收入指導,如果你看一下並應用它,通常你會在增量上應用 30% 左右的流量,然後從那裡添加協同效應的好處等等。所以看一看吧。我們很高興從這裡開始進行更詳細的介紹,但我們的計算表明,至少從 EBITDA 的角度來看,Marel 方面的貢獻比 JBT 方面的貢獻要大一些。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Perfect. And my final question is on Marel specifically, as we're trying to look through what the fourth quarter looked like, at least, on our math, the fourth quarter looked to be a sequential step down in margin. And maybe even tougher than some of the prior quarters in '24.
完美的。我的最後一個問題是關於 Marel 的,我們試圖了解第四季度的情況,至少從我們的計算來看,第四季的利潤率似乎連續下降。甚至可能比 2024 年前幾季更加艱難。
Maybe you can give us some context or Arni can give us some context as to what's been going on with margins in the fourth quarter. And big picture, sort of how you think about progression here through 2025 and maybe you can comment on fish and meat specifically because it's pretty clear that poultry is doing all right. It's the other two segments that have struggled. Thank you.
也許您可以給我們一些背景信息,或者 Arni 可以給我們一些有關第四季度利潤率情況的背景信息。從總體上看,您認為到 2025 年這一領域將如何發展,也許您可以具體評論魚類和肉類,因為很明顯家禽的狀況良好。其餘兩個部分則陷入困境。謝謝。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so what I would say kind of we saw how you can absent the balance sheet adjustment that we talked through, we saw a good margin in in Q4 both improving sequentially and year over year, so I think that is moving in the right direction.
是的,我想說的是,我們看到瞭如何消除我們討論過的資產負債表調整,我們看到第四季度的利潤率環比和同比都有所提高,所以我認為這正朝著正確的方向發展。
We also saw that kind of moving in the right direction for fish and meat, but there's still there's still a lot of work to be done on that front. So we are kind of just taking kind of so that's kind of on the margin side where we are on the right track and kind of the year at a healthy level or more healthy level kind of improving over the year and we can expect to be able to kind of do more as we enter 2025.
我們也看到魚和肉方面正在朝著正確的方向發展,但在這方面仍有許多工作要做。因此,我們只是採取某種措施,所以這在某種程度上處於邊際效益方面,我們正走在正確的軌道上,並且今年處於健康水平或更健康的水平,並且會逐年改善,我們預計在進入 2025 年時能夠做得更多。
And I mean some of the initiatives that we have been going through, we will continue with such as kind of standard standardizing the portfolio more rigorous kind of project control and selecting the projects. And then, we're also going to be designed the combined organization in a way where we believe those businesses will benefit more with greater scale in emerging markets, embedding the the service capabilities and some of the other designs that we've taken.
我的意思是,我們將繼續推行一些我們已經實施的舉措,例如標準化投資組合、更嚴格的專案控制和選擇專案。然後,我們還將以某種方式設計合併後的組織,我們相信這些業務將在新興市場中以更大的規模獲得更多利益,嵌入服務能力和我們採取的一些其他設計。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And to add on to that, as we look to bring some of the continuous improvement capabilities, we've already started that on both meat and fish, and we obviously have a large tool chest. One of the things we're actually looking at right now is applying some of the 80/20 approach to the business and looking at the segmentation of the larger customers, larger projects and product lines, and how that profitability is segmented and making sure that we've got the right resources and the right places to to attack that. So as well as some of the general continuous improvement things that we're looking at. So we are laser focused on the overall improvement in the synergy's perspective, but in particular, meat and fish are getting good attention all the way up to the top.
除此之外,當我們希望帶來一些持續改進的能力時,我們已經開始在肉類和魚類上進行改進,而且我們顯然擁有一個大型工具箱。我們現在實際上正在考慮的事情之一是將 80/20 方法應用於業務,並研究大客戶、大項目和產品線的細分,以及如何細分盈利能力,並確保我們擁有正確的資源和正確的地點來解決這些問題。我們正在關註一些一般的持續改進事項。因此,我們專注於從協同效應的角度實現整體改善,尤其是肉類和魚類,得到了最高層的充分關注。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, and just to clarify again on the Q4 margins again, we want to make sure we kind of look at it with and without the year-end adjustments that were booked at Marel in December. Those were really some sort of alignment on accounting policies and procedures between Marel and JBT and so they're a little bit I think kind of one time in nature and related to some older inventory and some older AR evaluation reserves and I think if you look at the underlying business, I think what Arni had said that they are seeing some improvements in the margins and that's what we would expect to see heading into 2025.
是的,為了再次澄清第四季度的利潤率,我們要確保我們在考慮和不考慮 12 月在 Marel 預訂的年終調整的情況下對其進行了審視。這些實際上是 Marel 和 JBT 之間在會計政策和程序上的某種協調,所以我認為它們本質上有點像一次性的,並且與一些較舊的庫存和一些較舊的應收賬款評估儲備有關,我認為如果你看一下基礎業務,我認為 Arni 說過他們看到利潤率有所提高,而這正是我們預計在 2025 年會看到的。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
I'm sorry, just to clarify, the $20 million, that was a EUR20 million ad back. So so in the fourth quarter with the IFRS margin at Marel be somewhere close to 15%?
抱歉,我只是想澄清一下,這 2000 萬美元,是 2000 萬歐元的廣告費。那麼,第四季 Marel 的 IFRS 利潤率會接近 15% 嗎?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah I think it's in the, yeah, I think it's in the 13% to 14% range. It's $20 million. It's about EUR17 million.
是的,我認為是在,是的,我認為是在 13% 到 14% 的範圍內。是2000萬美元。約1700萬歐元。
Okay, we're not adding that back from an adjusted perspective. It's just a different, I think again a different kind of accounting approach. So I don't want to blur the underlying performance of the operations with that those adjustments.
好的,從調整的角度來看,我們不會將其加回去。我認為這只是一種不同的會計方法。所以我不想讓這些調整影響營運的根本表現。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Understood.
明白了。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
But you're correct. You're correct, Mircea. If you look at the reported results, IFRS EUR200 million that is burdened by about $17 million to $18 million of one-time items.
但你是對的。你說得對,米爾恰。如果你看一下報告的結果,以國際財務報告準則計算,2 億歐元的損失大約有 1700 萬到 1800 萬美元的一次性項目負擔。
And if you would absent of that, you would have kind of even EBITDA margin for the full year, kind of a little bit north of 13% and so was was more healthy.
如果沒有這個因素,全年的 EBITDA 利潤率將會比較均衡,略高於 13%,因此比較健康。
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Mircea Dobre - Senior Research Analyst
Got it, thank you.
知道了,謝謝。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Thanks.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Ross Sparenblek with William Blair. Please go ahead.
您的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Ross Sparenblek。請繼續。
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Hey, good morning guys. You touched on this in your opening remarks, but can you maybe just remind us of the timing for backwall conversion for JBT and Morell and kind of what that mix looks like on a pro forma energy going forward?
嘿,大家早安。您在開場白中提到了這一點,但您能否提醒我們 JBT 和 Morell 後壁轉換的時機,以及這種組合在未來的能源形式上是什麼樣的?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I mean for the most part we look at about for JBT it's in the 50% or so of our equipment revenue is in backlog that we'd expect, so the backlog for equipment is sort of in the $450 million dollar range for JBT historically or legacy JBT, and only a small portion of that sort of bleeds into next year.
是的,我的意思是,就 JBT 而言,我們大部分的設備收入大約有 50% 是積壓訂單,這是我們預期的,因此,對於 JBT 或傳統 JBT 來說,設備積壓訂單大約在 4.5 億美元左右,其中只有一小部分會流入明年。
We did take some bigger pharma projects and fruit and veg projects, so those will bleed into 2026. For Marel, they do have some larger Greenfield type projects that do have longer lead times. I don't have the exact sort of timing of that, but I would expect their revenue cadence to look very similar in terms of the backlog for equipment. So I'd expect probably 80% to 85% of their backlog on equipment would result in revenue in 2025.
我們確實承接了一些較大的製藥項目和水果蔬菜項目,因此這些項目將持續到 2026 年。對於 Marel 來說,他們確實有一些更大的 Greenfield 類型的項目,而且交貨時間也更長。我沒有確切的時間安排,但我預計他們的收入節奏在設備積壓方面看起來非常相似。因此我預計到 2025 年,他們積壓的設備訂單中大概有 80% 到 85% 會產生收入。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
And I'd say as a whole when you consider the stability of the recurring revenue business, when you kind of add that into kind of the visibility as we start the year on the equipment side, we have some more ballpark 70% visibility for the full year revenue.
我想說,總的來說,當你考慮經常性收入業務的穩定性時,當你把它添加到我們年初在設備方面的可見性中時,我們對全年收入的可見性大約有 70%。
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Okay, so with that expectation then recurring revenue is probably being implied over 50% in kind of your 2025 guidance?
好的,那麼根據這個預期,您預測的 2025 年經常性收入可能超過 50% 嗎?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Actually a little bit less because you're a little bit less because your equipment, we were about combined right about 50% last year. However, we do expect equipment to growth to outpace aftermarket growth in 2025, so the mix will actually grow both, but the mix will change a little bit just because of the outside growth on the equipment side.
實際上少一點,因為你的設備少一點,去年我們加起來大約是 50%。然而,我們確實預計到 2025 年設備成長將超過售後市場成長,因此組合實際上將同時成長,但由於設備方面的外部成長,組合將略有變化。
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. And then just going back to a prior question on kind of the Marel margin list for next year, the filings called out, I believe, 11,700 employees, which does imply some material attrition over the past year. So I'm trying to get a sense of timing there around the reductions and maybe how we should think about sizing that that benefit in the context of the eight to ten Marel prior restructuring actions that are going to step up next year.
好的,這很有幫助。然後回到之前關於明年 Marel 利潤清單的問題,我認為文件中列出了 11,700 名員工,這確實意味著過去一年中出現了一些實質性的人員流失。因此,我試圖了解削減的時間安排,也許我們應該如何考慮在明年將加強的八到十項 Marel 先前重組行動的背景下確定這一收益的規模。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I think there's two things to kind of mention there, Ross.
是的,羅斯,我認為有兩件事值得一提。
First, I think there is, as we're going through this integration process, some definitional differences between what was reported historically for Marel and what we reported is at 11,700. So that's a little bit of a difference, but I do think that Marel has taken some significant actions in 2024 to reduce their FTEs.
首先,我認為,在我們進行這項整合過程時,Marel 歷史報告的數字與我們報告的 11,700 之間存在一些定義差異。所以這有一點不同,但我確實認為 Marel 在 2024 年採取了一些重大行動來減少他們的 FTE。
That's sort of already built in to our guidance and part of the additional self-help that we were talking about in terms of the margin uplift for Marel, and that is before we actually think about this, the benefit from synergies.
這在某種程度上已經融入我們的指導中,也是我們在談論的 Marel 利潤率提升方面的額外自助的一部分,而這在我們真正考慮這一點之前,就是協同效應帶來的好處。
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Okay, and is there any definition changes between the recurring revenue from Marel and JBT kind of look like there might have been?
好的,那麼 Marel 和 JBT 的經常性收入之間的定義是否有變化?
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Slightly. Slightly. There's the big question is, open question is refurbishments and how they we both treat those, otherwise, and we haven't married those up quite yet, so we will do that as we report out the first quarter, but not materially.
輕微地。輕微地。最大的問題是,懸而未決的問題是翻新工程以及我們如何對待這些工程,否則,我們還沒有將它們結合起來,所以我們會在報告第一季時這樣做,但不會是實質性的。
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Ross Sparenblek - Analyst
Okay, thank you guys.
好的,謝謝大家。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Hm.
嗯。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Walter Liptak with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Walter Liptak。請繼續。
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Alright, thanks. Good morning and congratulations and the deal.
好的,謝謝。早上好,恭喜交易成功。
What about the year one, synergy savings, and I wonder if you could, just, help bucket it for us, in terms of procurement versus people cost versus plan consolidation. And then and then on that procurement side, how are you thinking about pricing and tariffs this year and if there are inflationary pressures, how do you expect to deal with those?
那麼第一年的協同節約情況如何呢?我想知道您是否可以從採購、人員成本和計劃整合等方面幫助我們進行分類。那麼在採購方面,您如何考慮今年的定價和關稅?如果有通膨壓力,您預計如何應對?
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
I'll take the first part, Walt, so in terms of bucketing, I would say approximately of the $35million to $40 million, 45% to 50% of that is related to procurement and cost of goods sold, and the remainder of the synergies is going to be related to either redundant contracts, logistics, and other SGA related sort of redundancies that we may have between the two.
沃爾特,我來談談第一部分,所以就分類而言,我想說,在 3500 萬美元到 4000 萬美元中,大約有 45% 到 50% 與採購和銷售成本有關,其餘的協同效應將與冗餘合同、物流以及兩者之間可能存在的其他 SGA 相關的冗餘有關。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And then as it relates to tariffs, it's still a little bit early to tell. We still don't know all the specifics of the tariff policies and any potential retaliation. So we haven't factored in a tremendous amount into the numbers right now, mainly because as it sits today with what has been announced, we can largely manage through that in terms of our supply chain. So over the last few years coming out of COVID, and this applies to both Legacy Marel and JBT.
至於關稅問題,現在下結論還為時過早。我們仍然不知道關稅政策的所有細節以及任何潛在的報復措施。因此,我們目前還沒有將大量的數據納入考量,主要是因為根據今天宣布的數據,我們可以在供應鏈方面基本上解決這些問題。因此,在過去幾年擺脫 COVID 之後,這對 Legacy Marel 和 JBT 都適用。
We've enhanced our supply chain in terms of more options. I'll say more diversification of our supply chain just because of some of the challenges we saw a few years ago. So I think we're both well positioned and we're particularly well positioned relative to our competition given our our global scale, our strength of our procurement organization as well as our diversified manufacturing footprints. So we do need to see how this plays out, but I think in the short term, in terms of at least what we know today, we don't see a material impact in 2025.
我們已經增強了我們的供應鏈,提供更多選擇。我想說的是,由於幾年前我們看到的一些挑戰,我們的供應鏈將會更加多樣化。因此,我認為我們都處於有利地位,考慮到我們的全球規模、採購組織的實力以及多元化的製造足跡,我們相對於競爭對手的地位尤其有利。因此,我們確實需要觀察事態如何發展,但我認為,在短期內,至少就我們今天所知而言,我們不會在 2025 年看到實質影響。
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Okay, great, thanks for that. And I wanted to ask a follow on, you commented about doing some segmentation and some 80/20 work, and that's very interesting to me. I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about that. Is this like a homegrown thing or are you bringing in experts? Like is it how robust of an 80/20 program are you thinking about?
好的,太好了,謝謝。我想問一個後續問題,您評論說要做一些細分和一些 80/20 工作,這對我來說非常有趣。我想知道您是否可以就此再多談一點。這是自家研發的產品嗎,還是你們引進專家了?例如,您認為 80/20 計劃的穩健性如何?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, well, we are the experts on continuous improvement in 80/20, so we have more than enough resources within within the company.
是的,我們是 80/20 持續改善的專家,因此我們公司內部擁有足夠的資源。
So what we're going to do is just to get a little bit more specific, what you do is look at the revenue streams and and you segment that and look at the underlying, I'll say concentration. And then what are the costs associated with those buckets, if you will, and then you make sure that you're serving your best customers and your best product lines in a way that allows you to grow them, and then taking taking a close look at your projects otherwise and I'll say the discipline around pricing, the discipline around costing those projects before you give those quotes and then strongly in execution on those projects as you go through. So there's a lot of different tools that we'll have. It's not just 80/20 but as continuous improvement experts, we are focused on this.
因此,我們要做的是更具體一點,你要做的就是查看收入來源,然後對其進行細分,並查看潛在的集中度。然後,如果願意的話,與這些桶相關的成本是多少,然後你要確保你以一種允許你發展的方式為你的最佳客戶和最佳產品線提供服務,然後仔細審視你的項目,否則,我會說在給出這些報價之前,要嚴格遵守定價紀律,要嚴格遵守對這些項目進行成本核算的紀律,然後在你執行這些項目的這些項目中,要執行這些項目的這些項目。所以我們會有很多不同的工具。這不僅僅是 80/20,而且作為持續改進專家,我們專注於這一點。
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Okay, great, thanks. And then with regards to the the change in focus to and markets, is that, has that happened already or what's the timing on that taking place?
好的,太好了,謝謝。那麼關於焦點和市場的變化,這是否已經發生了,或者發生的時間是什麼時候?
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's happening as we speak. It started organizational design started in the fourth quarter and continues through the end of the first quarter here. So organizationally wise we should be done by the end of the first quarter. I think there'll be some transition over the next few months, but I would say we would be done with that transition by the middle of the year completely.
我們說話的時候,這件事就正在發生。組織設計從第四季開始,一直持續到第一季末。因此從組織角度來看,我們應該在第一季末完成工作。我認為未來幾個月會有一些過渡,但我想說我們將在今年年中完全完成這項過渡。
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Walter Liptak - Analyst
Okay great thank you.
好的,非常感謝。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Justin Ages with CJS Securities. Please go ahead.
您的下一個問題來自 CJS Securities 的 Justin Ages。請繼續。
Justin Ages - Analyst
Justin Ages - Analyst
Hi, how's everyone doing?
嗨,大家好嗎?
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Great, thanks.
太好了,謝謝。
Justin Ages - Analyst
Justin Ages - Analyst
During the prepared remarks there was a comment about some greenfield opportunities, but just hoping to get a little more color on either end markets or you know where that is.
在準備好的演講中,有人對一些綠地機會發表了評論,但只是希望對終端市場或您知道的地方有更多的了解。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, so I mean I would say first and foremost that is in the poultry segment. I mean that is an area where kind of the fundamental mentals have been improving. We've seen some of those opportunities in the past. I mean, I think Marel spoke to one big one in the fourth quarter of 2023, which kind of explained the top comp for Q4 2024, and then we've seen kind of just the improvement in the market in the second half of 2024.
是的,所以我首先要說的是家禽領域。我的意思是,這是一個基本心理素質一直在進步的領域。我們過去已經看到過一些這樣的機會。我的意思是,我認為 Marel 在 2023 年第四季度談到了一個大問題,這在某種程度上解釋了 2024 年第四季的最高業績,然後我們看到了 2024 年下半年市場的改善。
Also, what is very interesting I've spoken about in Marel's results is some of the solutions and technologies that we've been introducing in the US market, such as the a line split solution that allows our customers to increase the line speeds. And we model has kind of very good technologies to be able to advance the industry and and help our customers, in particular in the US market, to invest. So there's a lot of, there's a few very interesting opportunities that we see there. It's still early, but we're optimistic.
此外,我在 Marel 的業績中談到的非常有趣的是我們在美國市場推出的一些解決方案和技術,例如允許我們的客戶提高生產線速度的生產線分割解決方案。我們的模型擁有非常好的技術,能夠推動產業發展並幫助我們的客戶(尤其是美國市場的客戶)進行投資。因此,我們看到了很多非常有趣的機會。現在還為時過早,但我們很樂觀。
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
Arni Sigurdsson - Chief Executive Officer
And just to follow up on that, so on the poultry side, Marel's technology is best in class without question, and some of these techniques of line split allows I'll say the unleashing of the speed and that technology that is currently, I'll say under some restrictions under the USDA policy, but this line split solution effectively allows us to again leverage this technology while still remaining compliant with the USDA.
再說這一點,在禽類方面,毫無疑問,Marel 的技術是同類中最好的,其中一些線路分割技術可以釋放速度,而目前這項技術受到美國農業部政策的一些限制,但這種線路分割解決方案可以讓我們有效地再次利用這項技術,同時仍然符合美國農業部的規定。
So that's exciting for our customers. In fact, what we do here is, if you can unleash this technology in these line speeds, it allows customers to take current, I'll say inefficient operations. Maybe you can close two facilities and open one new greenfield facility that you could take on that capacity with one operation. So those are the type of conversations that are happening on the poultry side.
這對我們的客戶來說是令人興奮的。事實上,我們在這裡所做的是,如果你能在這樣的線路速度下釋放這項技術,它可以讓客戶採取當前的,我會說低效的操作。也許您可以關閉兩個設施並開設一個新的綠地設施,這樣您就可以透過一次操作來承擔該產能。這就是在家禽方面正在進行的對話類型。
And then on the non-poultry side, what we are what we have been seeing is, particularly in the Middle East, a lot of greenfield opportunities on fruit and juice. And then we're also seeing greenfield opportunities on the farmers' side, so those are the areas where we are seeing some good activity.
在非家禽方面,我們看到的是,特別是在中東,水果和果汁領域有許多綠地機會。然後,我們也看到了農民的綠地機會,所以這些領域是我們看到一些良好活動的領域。
Justin Ages - Analyst
Justin Ages - Analyst
That's helpful, thanks. And then just one more on AGV, and I know it's a smaller portion of the combined entity now, but I was hoping to get a little more color. I know you said demand in the fourth quarter was good, but looking ahead, what are expectations for that segment and market if you want to define it.
這很有幫助,謝謝。然後關於 AGV 再說一個,我知道它現在只是合併實體的一小部分,但我希望獲得更多細節。我知道您說第四季度的需求很好,但展望未來,如果您要定義的話,對該細分市場和市場的預期是什麼。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, AGV is a great business. It was it was definitely our most improved business in 2024. We talked quite a bit about that. I won't go into all those details, but there's a very good business. So in terms of go forward expectations, continued double digit revenue growth, and they're in that 20% range, so creative on the growth and a creative on the margins.
是的,AGV 是一項偉大的事業。這絕對是我們 2024 年進步最大的業務。我們對此進行了相當多的討論。我不會談論所有細節,但這是一門非常好的生意。因此,就未來預期而言,營收將繼續保持兩位數成長,並且處於 20% 的範圍內,因此成長富有創造力,利潤率也富有創造力。
Justin Ages - Analyst
Justin Ages - Analyst
I appreciate that.
我很感激。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
There are no more questions. I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Brian Deck for closing remarks.
沒有其他問題了。現在我將會議交還給 Brian Deck 先生,請他致閉幕詞。
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Brian Deck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you all for joining us this morning. As always, our investor relations team will be available if you have any additional questions.
感謝大家今天上午參加我們的活動。像往常一樣,如果您有任何其他問題,我們的投資者關係團隊將隨時為您服務。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。