JBT Marel Corp (JBTM) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to JBT Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

My name is Lindsay, and I will be your conference operator today.

(Operator Instructions)

I will now turn the call over to JBT's VP of Investor Relations, Megan Rattigan, to begin today's conference.

Thank you, Lindsay.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter and year-end 2019 conference call.

With me on the call are Chairman, President and CEO, Tom Giacomini; and our Executive Vice President and CFO, Brian Deck.

In today's call, we will use forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbor language in yesterday's press release and 8-K filing.

JBT's periodic SEC filings also contain information regarding risk factors that may have an impact on our results.

These documents are available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

Also, our discussion today includes references to certain non-GAAP measures.

A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in yesterday's press release.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Tom.

Thanks, Megan, and good morning.

JBT posted solid growth and earnings gains in 2019.

Reported earnings per share were ahead 24% compared with 2018, while adjusted EPS expanded 13%.

Net income increased 24%, while adjusted EBITDA, which is an important gauge of our performance, grew 15% to $292 million in 2019.

We continue to enjoy strong growth at AeroTech.

FoodTech delivered solid growth.

FoodTech's fourth quarter order improvement was encouraging but it's too soon to claim a turnaround from the conditions we experienced through most of 2019, with order commitments hurt by trade issues and business uncertainty.

That said, as we discussed throughout the year, our restructuring activities, along with the implementation of JBT operating system have enhanced efficiency and profitability.

The 3 acquisitions we made in 2019 are performing well.

Moreover, the continued growth of our aftermarket business has benefited margins and continue to create a more stable and resilient JBT.

Looking ahead to 2020, we expect to grow, capture further margin expansion and post a 10% increase in adjusted EBITDA.

I'll turn the call over to Brian to provide more detail on JBT's performance in 2019 and guidance for 2020.

Afterwards, I'll talk more about the Poultry Show, geographic trends, recent acquisitions and the strength of our recurring revenue stream.

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone.

As our release provided a detailed breakdown of revenue growth, let me jump into an analysis of performance and trends for the year.

Even in an environment hurt by trade and business uncertainty, FoodTech's 2019 organic growth was 1%.

At the same time, we delivered an 8% growth contribution from acquisitions, and we expanded FoodTech profitability, with segment operating profit margins up 140 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margins up 270 basis points to 19.3%.

FoodTech's fourth quarter margins were down slightly year-over-year due to higher incentive compensation expense and product mix.

AeroTech's full year performance exceeded expectations, bolstered by a strong 7% growth in organic revenue, which was on top of the 2018's organic growth of 16%.

We were also able to expand profitability at AeroTech with a 130 basis point increase in segment operating profit margins.

AeroTech's adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 160 basis points to 13.7% for the year, including a record high of 15.9% in the fourth quarter.

For full year 2019, FoodTech orders declined 2%.

As Tom mentioned, we enjoyed a pickup in the fourth quarter with an 8% year-over-year gain to the highest levels of the year.

At AeroTech, orders gained 1% for the full year and declined 14% in the fourth quarter, coming off an exceptional year in 2018.

Additionally, there were a few significant orders that slipped from year-end into 2020.

Overall conditions for AeroTech remains solid, with particular strength in the fixed product lines.

JBT's adjusted EBITDA of $87 million for the fourth quarter and $292 million for the year were in line with our most recent guidance.

On the EPS line, the reported $4.03 per share came in under our guidance of $4.10 to $4.20.

This reflects the fact that a $0.10 per share discrete tax benefit we expected in the fourth quarter didn't materialize.

We also incurred more M&A costs than anticipated.

As a reminder, both of those items impact GAAP EPS but not adjusted EPS.

On the other hand, adjusted EPS of $4.96 came in above our $4.80 to $4.90 guidance range.

This was primarily due to lower-than-expected tax and interest expense.

JBT's full year 2019 free cash flow was below guidance at $83 million, primarily due to higher-than-anticipated accounts receivable and inventory levels at AeroTech.

In light of the supply chain challenges and shortages AeroTech faced in 2018, we overcompensated in 2019 and did not deplete the inventory by year-end as expected.

In terms of accounts receivable, some expected large customer payments rolled into the first quarter of 2020.

Looking ahead, we are applying the JBT operating system problem-solving tool set to tackle the issue and better align AeroTech's inventory with demand.

As such, we are committing to free cash flow conversion of more than 100% in 2020 and improved cash flow performance in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the year ago period.

Taking a step back, our restructuring activities along with the implementation of the JBT operating system have enhanced JBT's efficiency and profitability.

When we look at margins versus our pre-restructuring baseline year of 2017, JBT's adjusted EBITDA margins have expanded from 12% to 15%, predominantly due to these operational improvement efforts, along with the benefit of increasing our mix of recurring revenue.

This progress is ahead of the pace outlined in our Elevate strategy framework despite the challenging industrial economic environment.

Let me now transition to guidance for 2020, which is subject to certain -- to uncertainties related to the impact from the coronavirus.

For the year, we anticipate total JBT revenue growth of 3% to 4%.

That includes FoodTech flat organic performance, a 4% benefit from completed acquisitions and a 0% to 1% headwind from foreign exchange.

At AeroTech, we expect organic growth of 3% to 4%.

While we expect FoodTech organic revenue to be down mid-single digits year-over-year in the first half of 2020, its revenue will be bolstered by the Proseal and Prime acquisitions completed in mid-2019.

We anticipate FoodTech organic growth will pick up in the second half of 2020 based on the forecasted order flow.

For AeroTech, we see -- we foresee strong first half organic revenue gains in 2020, including solid double-digit growth in Q1, with a flattish back half of the year versus 2019, given the tougher comps.

In terms of profitability, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins to expand further to 19.5% to 20.5% at FoodTech and 14.5% to 15.5% at AeroTech.

JBT's guidance for full year diluted earnings per share is $4.95 to $5.15 on a GAAP basis and $5.15 to $5.35 on an adjusted basis.

We are forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $315 million to $325 million, which represents a year-over-year gain of approximately 10% at the midpoint.

For the first quarter, we expect revenue of $440 million to $445 million, reported EPS of $0.68 to $0.73 and adjusted EPS of $0.75 to $0.80.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Tom.

Thanks, Brian.

As many of you know, we recently attended the 2020 International Production & Processing Expo, otherwise known as the Poultry Show.

While the solid customer enthusiasm was not as upbeat as the 2018 show, it was more optimistic than in 2019.

Potential export market improvement with the lifting of China's restriction on U.S. poultry should bolster industry prospects.

Speaking of China, with the outbreak of the coronavirus, the health and safety of our employees in the region is of utmost importance and we're actively working to mitigate risk.

We are also concerned about the potential impact of coronavirus as supply chain and general business disruptions could be a headwind for JBT.

We recently sought feedback from a number of customers in the region.

The feedback indicated that planned investments for 2020 were still moving forward, although at a slower pace, given the current difficulties interfacing with end customers in China.

If the trajectory of the virus was to worsen, these planned investments in 2020 could be delayed into the subsequent year.

Longer term, this situation is likely to accelerate China's adoption of modern and safe food processing practices, increasing opportunities for JBT.

As for geographic trends more broadly, at FoodTech, Asia continued to strengthen in the fourth quarter, particularly demand for food preservation technologies.

Europe was stable, with the ready meals and convenience markets enjoying higher growth.

North America continued to be impacted by business uncertainty and U.S. poultry producers struggling with low prices.

But as I mentioned, this could improve with exports to China.

At AeroTech, we are experiencing very strong trends on the fixed equipment side driven by airport infrastructure investment.

The military market is expanding.

Conditions are a bit more challenging on the mobile side as the trade wars have affected industry-wide airfreight demand.

Let me switch gears and talk about the 3 acquisitions we completed in 2019: LEKTRO, Proseal and Prime.

All 3 are operating well as part of JBT.

On a strategic basis, each complements and expands the solutions JBT provides for our customers.

Moreover, all 3 support our customers' focus on environmentally friendly solutions.

LEKTRO's electric aviation ground support equipment reduces environmental footprint with emissions-free equipment.

Proseal's trade sealing technology provides packaging that minimizes the use of plastics, while reducing food waste by extending the product shelf life.

And Prime's poultry processing solutions provide for water reuse, thus minimizing use of a valuable resource.

I've also indicated the importance of the strength of JBT's recurring revenue stream, which represented 41% of JBT's revenue in 2019.

At FoodTech, it was 44% of revenue.

One important factor in our success is PRoCARE service contracts and PRoCARE powered by iOPS, our Internet of Things initiative that provides cloud-based, real-time operations monitoring.

In 2019, PRoCARE revenue expanded some 40% year-over-year, with increased penetration in the installed base and new equipment sales.

While PRoCARE is still a small percentage of recurring revenue, its expansion benefits our customers and JBT.

With regular service visits, PRoCARE optimizes system yield and uptime for our customers.

For JBT, PRoCARE's contracts enables -- enable us to operate our service organization more efficiently.

Looking beyond 2020, we remain optimistic about the secular growth opportunities for JBT with an annual organic growth of 4 to 2 -- 4% to 6% through the cycle and total growth of 10% with acquisitions.

Our growing recurring revenue stream provides higher margins and stability.

We remain committed to an active and disciplined M&A program that enhances our competitive position.

Finally, we expect to continue to capture margin expansion across both our businesses.

With that, we'll open the call to your questions.

Operator?

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mig Dobre with RW Baird.

It's Joe Grabowski on for Mig this morning.

So if you're assuming negative mid-single-digit organic growth in FoodTech in the first half, I guess sort of mathematically, you're assuming positive mid-single-digit in the second half.

Is that mostly just a function of easier comparisons in the second half?

You mentioned forecasted order trends.

What are you seeing in the second half?

Are you expecting underlying demand to improve?

Or again, is it just sort of the easy comparisons?

I would say it's more about the trajectory of the orders.

We had some challenging order conditions in the back half of 2019, second and third quarter in particular, and we see some mild improvement through this year that will allow us to recover that organic growth rate in the back half of the year.

And that's kind of what we talked about in terms of our view of the business on the last call also.

Is it a function of the orders you saw in the fourth quarter?

Or orders that you're expecting in the first half that will convert to shipments in the second half?

Sure.

It's -- certainly, the fourth quarter was a benefit to help us get a start on the year but we expect to book some solid orders in the front half of 2020 also.

Great.

Okay.

And then I guess my follow-up question, the $20 million of restructuring savings -- incremental restructuring savings expected in 2020, how do those sort of flow by quarter?

And can you just confirm, are all of the $20 million incremental savings in FoodTech?

So of the $20 million, it's -- there's still a decent amount for AeroTech, fairly comparable to the (inaudible) of the revenue between Food and Aero.

You'll see a little bit more savings in the front half, mainly because we had some success in the back half of the year with the savings coming in.

And those -- and the success of those programs on a comparable basis will effectively be in the numbers by Q2, maybe into Q3.

Our next question comes from George Godfrey with CL King.

I wanted to -- we spent a lot of time on FoodTech, but I wanted to sort of talk about the AeroTech for a second there, Tom.

The growth rate -- or the organic growth rate would be still a good number here in 2020, but obviously, it's been coming down.

Do you get the sense that we're on -- the infrastructure build-out that came out of the post-financial crisis has been completed and now each year, the organic growth is going to trend more to a global GDP-like growth in the mid-teen digit growth that is probably behind us?

Sure.

I would say, George, it's more around -- we've had some nice recovery in our AeroTech business, which has helped provide those outsized growth rates in the prior years.

I still see a number of years of continuing infrastructure investment.

You can see it in the airports around you, so that will continue to propel us.

The other 2 elements of AeroTech, the mobile, that tends to be a shorter book and ship type of business.

We've enjoyed some particular strength, particularly as a benefit of e-commerce.

But there's been a bit of a headwind in the back half of last year and into this year that we're seeing just in terms of material flow by air being a bit slower.

And certainly, the coronavirus situation doesn't help that right now.

And then the military, which we continue to invest in really groundbreaking technologies that have great financial performance, and that franchise continues to build.

So overall, I would say we continue to be quite optimistic about AeroTech and it's just some -- following a couple of years of really outsized growth, it gets to be tough to start lapping those comparables.

But it's a great franchise and we certainly enjoy owning that and having that part of our business.

Understood.

And just a follow-up to you enjoy owning that, is that -- is the strategic fit or the activity level on maybe looking at selling or divesting that business, is that pretty cold right now?

Or is there activity?

There's always ongoing discussion.

Can you just quantify on where you see the next 3 to 5 years for JBT FoodTech versus AeroTech and how the company is constructed?

Sure.

We did quite a bit of work on understanding and we always look at our portfolio.

And the work we've done this last year, George, has told us that the greatest creation for our shareholders is AeroTech being part of our portfolio, and we're optimistic and bullish about that and moving forward as we talked about into 2020 with AeroTech as part of JBT.

And we're looking forward to having it continue to be a value-creating part of our offering.

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin.

Wondering how your M&A pipeline looks for 2020.

Are prospective sellers less willing to come to the table given market conditions?

Sure.

As you know at JBT, we have a very disciplined and active M&A program that we continue working at, at every quarter and every year.

We continue to see a rich pipeline and strategic additions to the JBT franchise that really allow us to provide more comprehensive and value-creating solutions for our customers.

As we look at the sense of the pipeline, I haven't noticed a retreat of willingness of the people we're talking to, to engage in those meaningful conversations.

And I would say from JBT's perspective, we're also being thoughtful about how we think about valuations and how the businesses will perform post acquisition.

And in my earlier comments, we continue to see an ability for JBT to do M&A through the cycle and create value.

I will say we have expectations, as Brian mentioned, to generate a significant amount of cash in 2020.

So we certainly have the ability to complete some nice M&A this year without having the need to increase our leverage.

And we obviously have capacity beyond that.

But we're in a good position.

We remain disciplined, and we're always actively working that pipeline.

Okay.

And just following on that cash comment, thank you for the color on fourth quarter free cash flow.

Should we think of that -- the $15 million or so working capital shortfall really showing up next year?

Or does not all of that show up next year?

Right.

So we do expect some improvement in the working capital performance in 2020, particularly on the inventory side as we use our JBT operating system tools to better problem solve and work through that.

So I do see our inventory performing better.

And when you look at our accounts receivable, that's going to be more of a function of the growth of the business.

So there could be -- depending on the growth, it could be a use of cash.

And I do see on the customer deposit side, if we do indeed see some benefits of improving orders, we would see a benefit there as well.

Okay.

And if I could squeeze in one last one, what does your 2020 guidance imply for aftermarket revenue mix in FoodTech?

I know that was very strong in 2019, do you -- does guidance contemplate perhaps some of that returning to more normalized levels?

Right.

So as you know, the second and third quarters were particularly strong on the mix.

Third -- fourth quarter was a little bit more heavy on the equipment side versus those prior quarters.

I would say we're expecting to go a little bit more back to a normalized rate in 2020.

I would say it was a little heavy on the aftermarket side in 2019.

That was a little bit more normalization next year.

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

Maybe if we could start off on free cash flow.

Can you guys bridge us from 2019 to 2020 the $83 million to the $160 million?

I know adjusted EBITDA goes up $30 million-ish, but just wanted to kind of bridge to the rest of the improvement.

I assume restructuring is a part of it and working capital.

But if you could help us bridge that, that would be helpful.

Sure.

So as a starting point, as you mentioned, with our net income, starting at the top of that cash flow statement in the -- call it, the low to mid-160s based on our guidance, that's somewhere in the range of a $30 million, $35 million pickup, just to start, in dollars.

And then just as a reminder, in 2019, we had $15 million of restructuring cash that was expensed in 2018 but paid in 2019.

So there's another $15 million on top of that.

And then as I mentioned, I do think our inventory will be a source of cash in 2020.

And -- but I do think -- and I think the deposits will also be a source of cash for the year.

So we add all those things up, you're looking at something north of the $160 million of net income turning into cash flow.

Okay, got it.

So it's a combination of those things.

Makes sense.

Maybe switching gears on FoodTech margins in the fourth quarter.

What -- why were they -- I think they were down year-over-year.

Just curious, it seems a little bit lower than expected.

What drove the variance?

Sure.

There's 2 things.

One, there was a decent amount of incentive compensation as we true up all those accruals for the year.

Obviously, we had -- FoodTech had a really nice year this year, profitability.

And if you look at Q4 of last year, you kind of had the opposite effect.

So there's kind of a double whammy pickup there.

But also, similarly in terms of impact, we did have, I would say in the quarter, more of an equipment heavier mix versus the Q4 of last year.

And then I would even say within the equipment, we had some decent-sized orders that were a little bit lower margin within that mix.

But overall, with the restructuring benefits, et cetera, we're looking at another 100 basis points of margin expansion for FoodTech next year.

So we think we're well on pace with our Elevate strategy that we've outlined.

Got it.

And maybe also, last one for me on the M&A costs.

So what would be like the types of M&A costs you guys report in corporate?

Sure.

So we do have M&A costs in both the business units and in the -- and in corporate.

So typically, if it's, I'll call it, a more business unit-sponsored deal, they'll have their expenses as well as all the inventory step-up ends up in the business units and the other transaction and integration expenses.

At corporate, we mostly house all the diligence expenses.

So we do outsource our financial due diligence.

That's a big one, typically, all of the attorney costs tend to be at corporate.

And then -- and sometimes we'll do third-party market studies.

That would also be at corporate.

So in this past...

Banking fees.

Banking fees if there's any.

Correct.

So in the last quarter, we did have a particularly active quarter on M&A activity out of the corporate function.

So it was just a very busy quarter, which drove up some of those expenses that we had not previously anticipated when we gave guidance after the third quarter.

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Larry De Maria with William Blair.

A clarification on the aftermarket kind of returning to normal growth in FoodTech.

Does that sort of imply more like mid-single-digit aftermarket growth and negative OE organic for 2020?

Negative organic on the equipment, is that what you're saying?

I'm sorry.

Yes, yes.

Yes, certainly in the front half, you would see negative organic growth on the equipment and a little bit more aftermarket mix in the front half.

I think as the back half goes, I think you'll have a stronger mix of the equipment and offsetting some of the benefit that we might otherwise see in the front half.

Okay.

As it relates to the FoodTech orders, obviously, in recent quarters, you talked about pushouts, longer conversion time to convert to orders, et cetera.

Is the market getting a little bit more normal?

Are the closure times and conversion times getting shorter, and thus, your optimism on the first half order trajectory?

Or are we still experiencing some of that uncertainty in the market?

Yes, Larry, I would say we certainly enjoyed a better closure rate in the fourth quarter, which was the translation of all of the projects that we talk about in our pipeline becoming firm with the committed orders from our customers.

And although we would still describe the market conditions not back to normal, our expectation is to get to our back half improvement in FoodTech, is mild improvement in the markets but not anything getting back to normal.

But I will say that even within some difficult markets, JBT continues to innovate on the product front.

We have -- our selling activity continues to be more sharpened.

And so even within some challenging market conditions, there are some things we can do to effect a better outcome that we're focused on.

And as a company, we always try to get better.

And we put those factors together, and that's how we came to the guide this year.

I would tell you that we aren't in a position we're declaring the markets are back to normal or you'd see a much bigger ramp on those orders and our revenues than what we're currently guiding to.

Okay, understood.

If I could just -- one more in here.

Just to clarify your comments on AeroTech, are we taking that the idea of potentially, eventually spinning or monetizing AeroTech off the table?

Or is that still a possibility, given the right circumstances?

Yes.

Larry, as you know, we always -- at JBT, when we analyze our business, our portfolio, how we go to market, we always look through the eyes of the shareholder and the lens of value creation.

And from our perspective, we will continue to evaluate.

But I would also say that with the work we've done, that currently, we believe the best value creation is part of JBT, but we'll always continue to evaluate what makes sense and creates the most value for our shareholders and allows us to be the best partner to our customers.

There are no questions at this time.

Mr. Tom Giacomini, I turn the call back over to you.

Our accelerated new product development efforts, investments in building our aftermarket franchise and strategic M&A program are better positioning JBT to be a more valuable solutions provider to our customers.

Thank you again for joining us this morning.

This concludes today's conference call.

You may now disconnect.