使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is Abbey and I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. As a remainder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions).
女士們、先生們,早安。我叫艾比 (Abbey),歡迎大家參加捷藍航空 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。另外,今天的通話正在錄音。(操作員指令)。
I would now like to turn the call over to JetBlue's Director of Investor Relations, Koosh Patel. Please go ahead, sir.
現在我想將電話轉給捷藍航空的投資者關係總監 Koosh Patel。先生,請繼續。
Koosh Patel - Director-Investor Relations
Koosh Patel - Director-Investor Relations
Thanks, Abbey. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our second quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and a presentation that we will reference during this call. All of those documents are available at our website at investor.jetblue.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.
謝謝,艾比。大家早安,感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天上午,我們發布了收益報告和一份我們將在本次電話會議中參考的簡報。所有這些文件均可在我們的網站 investor.jetblue.com 和美國證券交易委員會的網站 www.sec.gov 上查閱。
In New York to discuss our results are Joanna Geraghty, our Chief Executive Officer; Marty St. George, our President; and Ursula Hurley, our Chief Financial Officer.
在紐約討論我們業績的有我們的執行長喬安娜·傑拉蒂 (Joanna Geraghty)、我們的總裁馬蒂·聖喬治 (Marty St. George) 和我們的財務長烏爾蘇拉·赫爾利 (Ursula Hurley)。
During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding our third quarter and full year 2025 financial outlook and our future results of operations and financial position, including long-term financial targets, industry and market trends, expectations with respect to tailwinds and headwinds, our ability to achieve operational and financial targets, our business strategy and plans for future operations and the associated impacts on our businesses.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款做出前瞻性陳述。此類前瞻性陳述包括但不限於有關我們 2025 年第三季度和全年財務展望以及我們未來經營業績和財務狀況的陳述,包括長期財務目標、行業和市場趨勢、對順風和逆風的預期、我們實現經營和財務目標的能力、我們的業務戰略和未來運營計劃以及對我們業務的相關影響。
All such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Please refer to our most recent earnings release as well as our fiscal year 2024 10-K and other filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements.
所有此類前瞻性陳述均受風險和不確定性的影響,實際結果可能與這些陳述中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們最新的收益報告以及 2024 財年的 10-K 和其他文件,以更詳細地討論可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。
The statements made during this call are made only as of the date of the call and other than as may be required by law, we undertake no obligation to update the information. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.
本次電話會議所作的聲明僅代表電話會議當天的觀點,除非法律另有規定,否則我們不承擔更新資訊的義務。投資者不應過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。
Also, during the course of our call, we may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures for an explanation of these non-GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings release, a copy of which is available on our website and at sec.gov.
此外,在電話會議過程中,我們可能會參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標來解釋這些非 GAAP 指標並調整相應的 GAAP 指標,請參閱我們的收益報告,其副本可在我們的網站和 sec.gov 上找到。
And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Joanna Geraghty, JetBlue's CEO.
現在,我想將電話轉給捷藍航空執行長喬安娜·傑拉蒂 (Joanna Geraghty)。
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Good morning, and thank you for joining JetBlue's second quarter earnings call. During the second quarter, we made meaningful progress with JetForward and met or exceeded guidance across all key metrics. Despite facing an uncertain macro backdrop, I am pleased that we produced a modest operating profit. We ran a strong operation and once again saw significant gains in customer satisfaction, with second quarter Net Promoter Score up double digits year-over-year.
早安,感謝您參加捷藍航空第二季財報電話會議。在第二季度,我們在 JetForward 方面取得了重大進展,所有關鍵指標都達到或超過了預期。儘管面臨不確定的宏觀背景,但我很高興我們實現了適度的營業利潤。我們營運強勁,客戶滿意度再次顯著提高,第二季淨推薦值較去年同期成長兩位數。
I want to take a moment to thank our (inaudible). These results are a reflection of all of their hard work. As we entered the second quarter of demand stabilized and then accelerated as the quarter progressed, this resulted in a higher mix of close-in bookings. I'm encouraged that we also saw strength carry forward into July.
我想花點時間感謝我們的(聽不清楚)。這些成果是他們全部辛勤工作的展現。隨著我們進入第二季度,需求趨於穩定,並隨著季度的進展而加速,這導致近距離預訂的組合增加。我很高興看到這種強勁勢頭延續到了七月。
However, I will note that weather and ATC-related disruption throughout the month of July have impacted operations. In May, we marked another JetForward milestone, introducing Blue Sky, our collaboration with United Airlines. I'm pleased to say that we received confirmation that the Department of Transportation has completed their review and we are now able to begin implementing Blue Sky. We'd like to thank Secretary Duffy, Assistant Secretary Edward and the entire team at DoT for their engagement and thoughtful review of Blue Sky.
然而,我要指出的是,整個七月的天氣和空中交通管制相關幹擾已經對營運產生了影響。五月份,我們迎來了 JetForward 的另一個里程碑,推出了與美國聯合航空合作的 Blue Sky 航空。我很高興地說,我們收到確認,交通部已經完成審查,我們現在可以開始實施藍天計畫。我們要感謝達菲部長、愛德華助理部長以及交通部整個團隊對藍天計畫的參與和深思熟慮的審查。
As a reminder, this collaboration will benefit customers, increase the utility of TrueBlue and further strengthen each airline loyalty program. Blue Sky will enable JetBlue to sell nearly all of its flight on united.com via traditional interline agreements and vice versa with the opportunity to earn and redeem loyalty points across each other's networks.
提醒一下,這項合作將使客戶受益,提高 TrueBlue 的實用性並進一步加強每個航空公司的忠誠度計劃。透過傳統的聯運協議,藍天航空將使捷藍航空能夠在 united.com 上銷售幾乎所有的航班,反之亦然,並有機會在彼此的網絡中賺取和兌換忠誠度積分。
United will also transition its distribution of non-flight ancillaries such as hotels, rental cars and more to our travel product subsidiary Paisly turbocharging its high-margin growth. Blue Sky links two complementary networks with industry-leading products and services to increase customer choice and benefits while promoting healthy competition.
美聯航也將把飯店、租車等非航空輔助服務的分銷轉移到我們的旅遊產品子公司 Paisly,以推動其高利潤率的成長。Blue Sky 將兩個互補的網路與業界領先的產品和服務連接起來,以增加客戶的選擇和利益,同時促進良性競爭。
The collaboration is expected to contribute an incremental $50 million in EBIT through 2027, accelerating JetForward. Including the benefit from Blue Sky, we are increasing our target for JetForward EBIT to a range of $850 million to $950 million through 2027. Marty will share more details on the individual drivers, but we are excited that Blue Sky will build on the tremendous progress we've made to date.
預計到 2027 年,此次合作將為 JetForward 貢獻 5,000 萬美元的息稅前利潤,從而加速其發展。包括藍天航空的收益在內,我們將 JetForward 息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 目標提高至 2027 年的 8.5 億美元至 9.5 億美元。馬蒂將分享有關各個車手的更多細節,但我們很高興藍天將在我們迄今為止取得的巨大進步的基礎上再接再厲。
We are also pleased to report that our aircraft on the ground forecast due to the Pratt & Whitney GTF issue has improved, and we now expect the cycle through grounding much faster as a result. The revised forecast enables us to begin growing capacity again in 2026 through the end of the decade and achieve a more favorable unit cost growth trajectory. Ultimately, this will support our path back to restoring profitability.
我們也很高興地報告,由於普惠 GTF 問題,我們的飛機停飛預測已經有所改善,因此我們預計停飛週期將會更快。修訂後的預測使我們能夠在 2026 年至 2020 年底再次開始增加產能,並實現更有利的單位成本成長軌跡。最終,這將支持我們恢復獲利能力。
Turning to page 4 of the earnings presentation. In 2024, we had a strong start to JetForward and realized $90 million of EBIT early due to success of revenue initiatives launched last year that ramped faster than we anticipated including preferred seating and enhancements to our Blue Basic offering.
翻到收益報告的第 4 頁。2024 年,JetForward 取得了良好的開端,並提前實現了 9000 萬美元的息稅前利潤,這得益於去年推出的創收計劃的成功,這些計劃的增長速度超出了我們的預期,包括優先座位和對 Blue Basic 服務的增強。
In the first half of 2025, we've continued building on that momentum, realizing an additional $90 million in EBIT across our four priority moves, despite a far more challenging macro environment. Cumulatively, we've achieved $180 million EBIT to date and remain on track to reach $290 million in JetForward EBIT benefit by year-end.
2025 年上半年,儘管宏觀環境更具挑戰性,我們仍繼續保持這一勢頭,在四項優先舉措中額外實現了 9000 萬美元的息稅前利潤。迄今為止,我們累計已實現 1.8 億美元的息稅前利潤,並預計在年底前實現 2.9 億美元的 JetForward 息稅前利潤。
Our efforts to drive a more reliable operations, part of our reliable and caring service priority move have brought significant operational improvements in the first half of 2025. Our on-time performance was up 3 points year-over-year and completion factor was up 0.5 point, both industry-leading improvements.
我們致力於推動更可靠的運營,這是我們可靠和貼心服務優先舉措的一部分,這在 2025 年上半年帶來了顯著的營運改善。我們的準時率較去年同期上升了 3 個百分點,完成率上升了 0.5 個百分點,這兩項進步均處於行業領先地位。
These improvements are also reflected in our customer satisfaction scores. And for the first half of 2025, our Net Promoter Score was up double digits year-over-year, building on improvements made in 2024. In all, efforts to run a more reliable operation have contributed approximately $15 million of incremental EBIT benefit over the first half of 2025.
這些改進也反映在我們的客戶滿意度分數上。2025 年上半年,我們的淨推薦值年增了兩位數,這得益於 2024 年的進步。總而言之,為更可靠的營運所做的努力在 2025 年上半年貢獻了約 1500 萬美元的增量息稅前利潤。
We realized cost benefits from reduced disruption-related spend such as lower overtime pay and fewer customer re-accommodation. Additionally, we are seeing indications that customers are choosing us more often, proof that the investments we are making in our operations, such as implementing increased schedule buffers and launching new tools to enable customer self-service are having a positive impact.
我們透過減少與中斷相關的支出(例如降低加班費和減少客戶重新安排)來實現了成本效益。此外,我們看到有跡象表明客戶更頻繁地選擇我們,這證明我們在營運中所做的投資(例如實施增加計劃緩衝和推出新工具以實現客戶自助服務)正在產生積極的影響。
We believe that on-time performance and customer satisfaction are leading indicators for improved financial performance and that running a strong operation is essential. These investments are especially important when we face disruptive weather, which is often compounded by air traffic control challenges as we have experienced across our network in July. Our efforts to adjust the network to our strengths and build the best East Coast leisure network are also maturing nicely.
我們相信,準時履行和客戶滿意度是提高財務表現的領先指標,而強勁的營運至關重要。當我們面臨惡劣天氣時,這些投資尤其重要,惡劣天氣往往會因空中交通管制挑戰而加劇,正如我們七月整個網路所經歷的那樣。我們調整網路以適應我們的優勢並打造最佳東海岸休閒網路的努力也正在順利成熟。
As you recall, in 2024, we closed 15 Blue Cities and redeployed over 20% of our network, as we realigned to serve our core customer. These changes are ramping and are showing signs of relative improvement. For example, newer markets in secondary Northeast cities are exceeding expectations and are showing positive early traction.
大家還記得,2024 年,我們關閉了 15 個藍色城市,並重新部署了超過 20% 的網絡,以便重新調整服務方式,服務我們的核心客戶。這些變化正在加速,並顯示出相對改善的跡象。例如,東北二線城市的新市場超出預期,並表現出積極的早期發展勢頭。
Overall, network optimization represents $15 million of incremental EBIT over the first half of the year. As part of our products in first priority move, preferred seating continues to outpace expectations and our new premium credit card is on track to double full year projections for acquisitions, highlighting the tremendous amount of demand by customers for our premium products.
總體而言,網路優化在上半年帶來了 1500 萬美元的增量息稅前利潤。作為我們優先舉措產品的一部分,優先座位繼續超出預期,我們的新高級信用卡有望使全年收購預測翻一番,凸顯了客戶對我們高級產品的巨大需求。
Lounges slated to open in JFK during the fourth quarter and in Boston Logan in 2026, remain on track and will complement our premium car to enhance the overall value proposition of TrueBlue. We are also updating our onboard experience to better serve our premium customers. This includes the enhancement EvenMore launched earlier this year, and we also remain on track to begin rolling out domestic first class in 2026.
計劃於第四季度在甘迺迪機場和 2026 年在波士頓洛根機場開放的休息室仍在按計劃進行,並將與我們的高檔轎車相輔相成,以提升 TrueBlue 的整體價值主張。我們也將更新我們的機上體驗,以便更好地服務我們的優質客戶。其中包括今年稍早推出的增強版 EvenMore,我們也計劃在 2026 年開始推出國內頭等艙。
At the same time, we are reinvesting in our brands and living to fund value. 25 for 25 JetBlue's 25th birthday promotion, our partnership with Bad Bunny and our newly released Dunkin and Super Mario delivery are driving excitement and reinforced our unique style and brands. Altogether, products and perks have generated $35 million of incremental EBIT during the first half of 2025.
同時,我們正在對我們的品牌進行再投資,並為價值而努力。 25 for 25 JetBlue 的 25 歲生日促銷活動、我們與 Bad Bunny 的合作以及我們新推出的 Dunkin 和 Super Mario 外賣都激發了人們的興趣,並強化了我們獨特的風格和品牌。總體而言,產品和福利在 2025 年上半年創造了 3,500 萬美元的增量息稅前利潤。
Lastly, our cost transformation is underway to secure our financial future with around 100 initiatives focused on technology enhancements throughout our business, supporting customer self-service, disruption management and fuel savings. In total, cost savings have driven $25 million in EBIT and have contributed to our controllable cost outperformance with the second quarter marking our seventh consecutive quarterly cost beat.
最後,我們正在進行成本轉型,以確保我們的財務未來,其中約有 100 項措施專注於整個業務的技術改進,支援客戶自助服務、中斷管理和燃料節省。總體而言,成本節約推動了 2500 萬美元的息稅前利潤,並有助於我們實現可控成本的超額完成,第二季度是我們連續第七個季度實現成本超額完成。
JetForward is a comprehensive multiyear transformation, and we are making meaningful progress. Our operation is improving. We are building on our industry-leading in-flight experience, and we are getting reigniting JetBlue's spirit of innovation and disruption. We know there's more work ahead, but the momentum we've built gives us confidence that JetForward is the right plan, supported by the best crew members in the industry and a leadership team that is acting with urgency to meet the demands of a dynamic operating environment.
JetForward 是一項為期多年的全面轉型,我們正在取得有意義的進展。我們的運作正在改善。我們正在打造業界領先的飛行體驗,並重新點燃捷藍航空的創新和顛覆精神。我們知道未來還有更多工作要做,但我們已經建立的勢頭讓我們相信 JetForward 是正確的計劃,它得到了業內最優秀的機組人員和緊急行動以滿足動態運營環境需求的領導團隊的支持。
With that, over to you, Marty.
接下來就交給你了,馬蒂。
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Thank you, Joanna, and thank you all of our crew members. As Joanna noted, improvements to our operational performance and customer satisfaction are true testament to the work that you do day in and day out. It does not go unnoticed.
謝謝你,喬安娜,也謝謝我們所有的工作人員。正如喬安娜所說,我們的營運績效和客戶滿意度的提高真正證明了你們日復一日所做的工作。它不會被忽視。
I'm thrilled to share that during the quarter, JetBlue was recognized by J.D. Power as the top airline for first and business class customer satisfaction and the 2025 North America Airline satisfaction study. Our core experience also rose three spot to second place in the economy and basic economy segments and two spots to the second place in the premium economy segment compared to 2024.
我很高興地告訴大家,在本季度,捷藍航空被 J.D. Power 評為頭等艙和商務艙客戶滿意度以及 2025 年北美航空公司滿意度研究的頂級航空公司。與 2024 年相比,我們的核心體驗在經濟艙和基礎經濟艙中上升了三位,位居第二,在高級經濟艙中上升了兩位,位居第二。
JetForward and (inaudible) plan are driving real results and recognition. Over the quarter, we saw encouraging signs of an improving demand environment as the number of bookings accelerated as the quarter progressed.
JetForward 和(聽不清楚)計劃正在推動真正的成果和認可。在本季度,我們看到了需求環境改善的令人鼓舞的跡象,因為隨著季度的進展,預訂數量不斷增加。
Before we review quarterly results, I want to take a moment to talk more about Blue Sky. I'm very excited we announced this new collaboration with United. As we evolve our network, it is even more important to provide customers with more choices to earn and redeem TrueBlue points.
在我們回顧季度業績之前,我想花點時間多談談藍天。我很高興我們宣布與 United 的這項新合作。隨著我們網路的發展,為客戶提供更多賺取和兌換 TrueBlue 積分的選擇變得更加重要。
Blue Sky features three primary value drivers. First, it will greatly increase choice for TrueBlue members through the implementation of our traditional interline agreement, which expands our distribution reach and customer choice by cross-merchandising flights on one of those websites and apps.
Blue Sky 有三個主要價值驅動因素。首先,透過實施我們的傳統聯運協議,它將大大增加 TrueBlue 會員的選擇,透過在其中一個網站和應用程式上交叉銷售航班,擴大我們的分銷範圍和客戶選擇。
Second, the collaboration promotes the growth of our loyalty business by offering reciprocal earn and burn between programs and re-status recognition, increasing utility of our points and the breadth and value of our program.
其次,此次合作透過在計劃之間提供互惠的賺取和消耗以及重新狀態認可,促進了我們忠誠度業務的成長,提高了我們積分的實用性以及我們計劃的廣度和價值。
Lastly, the collaboration will supercharge as high-margin, high-growth and capital-light Paisly business, which is JetBlue's white label platform for the distribution of hotels, railcars, cruises, travel insurance and packages on the brands such as United and others.
最後,此次合作將增強高利潤、高成長和輕資本的 Paisly 業務,這是捷藍航空的白標平台,用於分銷聯合航空等品牌的酒店、火車車廂、遊輪、旅遊保險和套餐。
These EBIT benefits are split between our network priority move for interline benefits and a product priority move for loyalty and Paisly benefits. BlueSky is accelerating our transformation while bringing demonstrable benefits to customers across our system.
這些息稅前利潤收益分為我們的聯運收益網絡優先舉措和忠誠度及 Paisly 收益產品優先舉措。BlueSky 正在加速我們的轉型,同時為我們整個系統的客戶帶來明顯的利益。
Further, while the partnership is expected to begin generating value as soon as the fourth quarter, we are already seeing promising early traction. Since announcing BlueSky end of May, new credit card sign-ups accelerated in June. In fact, we have seen a double-digit increase in average daily card acquisitions in geographies outside JetBlue's core markets. This is the early evidence that the collaboration is increasing our relevance and making the TrueBlue program more attractive.
此外,雖然預計該合作夥伴關係最早將於第四季度開始產生價值,但我們已經看到了良好的早期發展勢頭。自 5 月底宣布推出 BlueSky 計畫以來,6 月新信用卡註冊量加速成長。事實上,我們看到捷藍航空核心市場以外地區的日均信用卡購買量呈現兩位數成長。這是早期證據,表明此次合作正在提高我們的相關性並使 TrueBlue 計劃更具吸引力。
On slides 8 and 9, we discuss the details of our second quarter revenue results and our unit revenue progression in the third quarter. We ran a strong operation during the second quarter and achieved a completion factor of 99.6%. Weather was generally favorable during the quarter, despite the typical conductive weather challenges we saw during the back half of June.
在第 8 張和第 9 張投影片上,我們討論了第二季營收結果的細節以及第三季的單位收入進度。我們在第二季表現強勁,完成率達 99.6%。儘管我們在六月下半月遇到了典型的傳導性天氣挑戰,但本季天氣總體良好。
We ended the second quarter with capacity down 1.5% year-over-year towards the better end of our initial range of down 3.5% to 0.5%. Demand trends for the first quarter continued into the second with bookings characterized by strong feeds and relatively weaker troughs.
第二季末,我們的運能年減了 1.5%,接近我們最初預測的 3.5% 至 0.5% 的下降範圍。第一季的需求趨勢延續到了第二季度,訂單特徵是進貨強勁,而低谷相對較弱。
As the quarter progressed, we saw a significant strength in bookings within 14 days of travel. The closing bookings were especially apparent for peak travel in end of July. In addition to closing strength, our second quarter RASM results were supported by actually the better match supply with demand.
隨著本季的進展,我們發現旅行前 14 天內的預訂量顯著增加。七月底旅遊高峰期的預訂量下降尤為明顯。除了收盤強勁之外,我們第二季的 RASM 業績實際上還得到了供需更好匹配的支援。
Early in the quarter, we took significant capacity action in the troughs, and we removed almost 8 points of capacity for May and 3 points in June compared to the plan at the beginning of the year. Both the Easter and Memorial day (inaudible) perform well.
本季初,我們在低谷期採取了重大的運力調整措施,與年初的計畫相比,5 月的運力減少了近 8 個百分點,6 月的運力減少了 3 個百分點。復活節和陣亡將士紀念日(聽不清楚)的表現都很好。
The Easter shift added almost 1.5 points to the second quarter RASM. Peak RASM for the quarter was positive on more capacity year-over-year. We also experienced nearly 1 point on RASM benefit from Newark book away. Asia traffic disruptions caused customers to temporarily shift travel to alternate airports and multiple states. That benefit was transitory, as the runway reopened in early June.
復活節的轉變使第二季的 RASM 增加了近 1.5 分。由於運力較去年同期增加,本季高峰 RASM 表現良好。我們還體驗到了從紐瓦克預訂中獲得的 RASM 福利近 1 點。亞洲交通中斷導致乘客暫時轉移行程至其他機場和多個州。這種好處只是暫時的,因為跑道在六月初就重新開放了。
Overall, unit revenue declined 1.5% year-over-year in the second quarter, 2 points above the top end of our guidance range. The [nature]close bookings may forecast challenging, even within the quarter. And in May and June, revenue generated within 14 days travel increased 7% year-over-year. Premium Cabin, Loyalty and Transatlantic continue to demonstrate resilience. Premium unit revenues were up mid-single digits year-over-year during the quarter and royalty remunerations were up 9% year-over-year.
整體而言,第二季單位營收年減 1.5%,比我們的預期最高值高出 2 個百分點。即使在本季度內,[自然]預訂的預測也可能具有挑戰性。5月和6月,14天旅行產生的收入年增了7%。高級艙位、忠誠度和跨大西洋繼續表現出韌性。本季度,優質單位營收年增中個位數,特許權使用費收入較去年同期成長 9%。
International continued to perform well with Transatlantic unit revenues up low single digits for the quarter. As you look to the third quarter, we have seen the closest strength carry into July, including the 4 of July holiday peak. We expect year-over-year unit revenue to be down between 6% and down 2% on ASMs ranging between down 1% and up 2%. As Joanna mentioned, we had to face more weather challenges than usual and elevated air traffic control delays throughout July, which have pressured in the operation and (inaudible) in the third quarter.
國際業務持續表現良好,本季跨大西洋單位收入成長了個位數。展望第三季度,我們看到 7 月的強勁勢頭最為明顯,包括 7 月 4 日的假期高峰。我們預計,ASM 的單位收入將年減 6% 至 2%,下降幅度在 1% 至 2% 之間。正如喬安娜所提到的,整個 7 月份,我們不得不面對比平常更多的天氣挑戰和更嚴重的空中交通管制延誤,這給營運和(聽不清楚)第三季帶來了壓力。
Our third quarter capacity guidance assumes a more typical operating environment for August and September, and we'll continue to monitor our operations closely as the quarter progresses. We anticipate a similar demand environment in the third quarter compared to the second with a continuation of strong peaks, elevated close-in bookings and weaker troughs.
我們的第三季產能指引假設 8 月和 9 月的營運環境更為典型,並且我們將在本季繼續密切監控我們的營運狀況。我們預計第三季的需求環境將與第二季類似,繼續保持強勁的高峰、增加的近距離預訂量和較弱的低谷。
Notably, while demand is improving, there are a few onetime considerations that are impacting our sequential RASM progression. In the second quarter, we benefited from both the Easter shift and Newark, representing roughly 2 points of RASM uplift. During the third quarter, we will be lapping 1 point of CrowdStrike benefit or unlike many of our peers, we realized a revenue gain from peer (inaudible) during the event last year.
值得注意的是,雖然需求正在改善,但仍有一些一次性考量影響我們連續的 RASM 進展。在第二季度,我們受益於復活節的轉變和紐瓦克的推動,RASM 提升了大約 2 個百分點。在第三季度,我們將獲得 1 個 CrowdStrike 收益點,或者與我們的許多同行不同,我們在去年的活動期間實現了來自同行(聽不清楚)的收入成長。
Additionally, the midpoint of our guidance for the third quarter translates to a roughly 2-point sequential increase in year-over-year capacity. Adjusting for these considerations, our third quarter RASM guidance implies continued demand and unit revenue improvement as we head into the second half of the year.
此外,我們對第三季的預期中點意味著運能將比去年同期較上季增加約 2 個百分點。考慮到這些因素,我們的第三季 RASM 指引意味著,隨著進入下半年,需求和單位收入將持續改善。
Further out at the end of the fourth quarter, we are optimistic that demand will continue to improve, and we're using this as our overarching planning assumption. However, revenue forecast remains challenging given elevated levels of close-in bookings and an improving but still choppy macro environment. Therefore, we will not be providing revenue guidance beyond Q3. Thank you.
我們樂觀地認為,到第四季末,需求將繼續改善,並將此作為我們的總體規劃假設。然而,鑑於近期預訂量上升以及宏觀環境不斷改善但仍不穩定,收入預測仍充滿挑戰。因此,我們不會提供第三季之後的收入指引。謝謝。
And now over to Ursula for an update on our balance sheet and cost outlook.
現在請 Ursula 介紹我們的資產負債表和成本前景的最新情況。
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Marty. During the second quarter, we generated a modest operating profit, a small step on our road to sustain profitability. We also adjusted our fleet plan, remain disciplined with our balance sheet and continued executing on our cost goals. These actions are grounded in our overarching objectives to enable capital-efficient long-term growth, drive profitability and generate free cash flow.
謝謝你,馬蒂。第二季度,我們實現了適度的營業利潤,這是我們在保持盈利的道路上邁出的一小步。我們也調整了船隊計劃,嚴格控制資產負債表,並繼續執行成本目標。這些行動都基於我們的整體目標,即實現資本高效的長期成長、提高獲利能力並產生自由現金流。
Turning to slide 11 for an update on our fleet. At the onset of the year, we shared that our Pratt & Whitney GTF-related aircraft groundings were expected to average mid- to high teens for the duration of 2025 and to peak one to two years into the future. I'm very pleased to announce that the forecast for aircraft on the ground has improved materially, and we now expect to average fewer than 10 AOGs this year and believe that 2025 represents the peak with the number set to reduce as we progress into 2026 and fully resolve by the end of 2027.
請翻到第 11 張投影片來了解我們機隊的最新情況。今年年初,我們曾表示,預計 2025 年全年與普惠 GTF 相關的飛機停飛率平均將達到十五到十幾率,並在未來一到兩年內達到峰值。我很高興地宣布,地面飛機的預測已經得到實質改善,我們現在預計今年平均 AOG 數量將少於 10 架,並相信 2025 年將達到峰值,隨著我們進入 2026 年,這一數量將會減少,並在 2027 年底完全解決。
The improved AOG forecast is primarily driven by the extension of required maintenance intervals due to better-than-expected GTF durability performance and aggressive self-help we have undertaken to source spare engines. As a result of geared turbofan challenges, we have not grown capacity since 2023, which has put meaningful pressure on unit costs and significantly impacted profitability.
AOG 預測的改善主要是由於 GTF 耐久性性能優於預期以及我們積極採取自助措施尋找備用引擎而導致所需維護間隔的延長。由於齒輪渦扇發動機面臨的挑戰,我們自 2023 年以來一直沒有增加產能,這給單位成本帶來了巨大壓力,並嚴重影響了盈利能力。
The revised forecast now positions us to return to long-term capacity growth beginning next year. Since these aircraft are returning to service and are not new deliveries, they represent an extremely capital-light source of growth.
修訂後的預測使我們從明年開始恢復長期產能成長。由於這些飛機正在重新投入使用,而不是新交付的,因此它們代表著極其輕資本的成長源。
This will allow us to return to a more favorable unit cost growth trajectory, supporting our return to profitability and free cash flow generation. Growing sustainably is important to our Jet Forward strategy, and we have pursued various initiatives to balance growth, optimize earnings and preserve capital across our fleet types.
這將使我們回到更有利的單位成本成長軌跡,支持我們恢復獲利能力和自由現金流的產生。永續發展對於我們的 Jet Forward 策略至關重要,我們已採取各種措施來平衡成長、優化收益並保留各類機隊的資本。
With our A320 fleet, we had planned to resile all 10 of our remaining A320 classes to mitigate AOG capacity pressure. Given the improved AOG forecast, we have decided to pause the restyling of four aircraft and will instead park them after the summer peak as previously communicated to our crew members.
對於我們的 A320 機隊,我們計劃恢復剩餘的所有 10 個 A320 等級,以緩解 AOG 容量壓力。鑑於 AOG 預測的改善,我們決定暫停四架飛機的改裝,而是按照先前與機組人員溝通的方式,在夏季高峰期後將它們停放。
As we manage growth and balance sheet health, we have also decided to sell our two upcoming XLR deliveries. As a reminder, last year, we deferred roughly $3 billion worth of aircraft deliveries into the 2030s, including the majority of our A321 order book. Inducting these XLR deliveries would result in a costly orphan fleet of two aircraft for the remainder of the decade.
在我們管理成長和資產負債表健康的同時,我們也決定出售即將交付的兩輛 XLR。提醒一下,去年我們將價值約 30 億美元的飛機交付推遲到 2030 年代,其中包括大部分 A321 訂單。引入這些 XLR 飛機將導致未來十年內出現由兩架飛機組成的高成本孤兒機隊。
Lastly, as previously announced, we officially end E190 flying at the end of this summer, simplifying our fleet from three to two types, the Airbus A220 and A320 families. The A220 replaces our E190s and offers higher gauge with 90% greater premium seat exposure and better fuel efficiency, resulting in a 25% to 30% improvement in direct operating cost per seat.
最後,正如先前宣布的那樣,我們將於今年夏末正式停止 E190 的飛行,將我們的機隊從三種類型精簡為兩種類型,即空中巴士 A220 和 A320 系列。A220 取代了我們的 E190,其規格更高,優質座位曝光度提高 90%,燃油效率更高,從而使每個座位直接營運成本提高 25% 至 30%。
We took delivery of our 50th A220 earlier this month, and the fleet type represents the majority of our order book through 2029. For our E190 fleet, I'm pleased to announce we now have binding sale agreements for all 25 owned E190 aircraft and engines. The transition began in the third quarter and will continue through the first half of 2026. Altogether, our revised fleet plan will enable sustainable and capital prudent capacity growth through the remainder of the decade.
我們在本月初接收了第 50 架 A220 飛機,到 2029 年,該機型佔據了我們訂單的大部分。對於我們的 E190 機隊,我很高興地宣布,我們現在已經對所有 25 架 E190 飛機和發動機簽訂了具有約束力的銷售協議。過渡期於第三季開始,並將持續到 2026 年上半年。總而言之,我們修訂後的船隊計畫將使本世紀剩餘時間內的運力實現可持續且資本審慎的成長。
Starting in 2026, we anticipate CapEx will decline steadily through the end of the decade, commensurate with our delivery schedule, and trend below $1 billion annually. The fleet actions will also help to preserve liquidity in the short term. And in the second quarter, we ended with $3.4 billion in liquidity, excluding our $600 million undrawn revolver. This represents 37% of trailing 12 months revenue compared to our liquidity target of approximately 20%, and we remain on track to end 2025 in excess of our target.
從 2026 年開始,我們預計資本支出將在本世紀末穩步下降,與我們的交付計劃相稱,並且每年將低於 10 億美元。艦隊行動也將有助於在短期內保持流動性。在第二季度,我們的流動資金為 34 億美元,不包括 6 億美元未提取的循環信貸額度。這佔過去 12 個月收入的 37%,而我們的流動性目標約為 20%,我們仍有望在 2025 年底超過我們的目標。
Turning to slide 12 for our second quarter cost results and third quarter outlook. The second quarter was another strong quarter for cost performance, driven by our operational execution and the progress of our JetForward cost transformation program, the team successfully mitigated pressures from closing capacity adjustments to end the quarter with CASM ex fuel up 6% year-over-year, better than our initial guidance of up 6.5% to 8.5%.
翻到第 12 張投影片,了解我們的第二季成本結果和第三季展望。第二季度是成本表現又一個強勁的季度,這得益於我們的營運執行和 JetForward 成本轉型計劃的進展,團隊成功緩解了關閉運力調整的壓力,本季度末 CASM 不含燃料成本同比增長 6%,好於我們最初預期的 6.5% 至 8.5% 的增長。
This marks the seventh consecutive quarter we have achieved or beat our cost guidance. The beat is primarily from a better-than-expected completion factor for the quarter as well as timing shifts and fleet transactions. In addition to reducing capacity, we assess our organizational structure and combined or restructured certain roles for greater efficiency at the leadership level.
這是我們連續第七個季度實現或超越我們的成本預期。業績超出預期主要得益於本季優於預期的完工率以及時間變化和船隊交易。除了減少產能外,我們還評估了組織結構,並合併或重組了某些角色,以提高領導層的效率。
We also implemented across-the-board project reductions at support centers and are closely assessing all spending. A portion of the beat was attributable to these cost actions during the quarter, as we took steps to respond to the evolving demand environment.
我們還在支援中心實施了全面項目削減,並密切評估所有支出。部分業績超出預期可歸因於本季採取的這些成本行動,因為我們採取了措施來應對不斷變化的需求環境。
As part of our efforts to return focus to our core business, we also announced the sale of assets from JetBlue Ventures to Sky Leasing. This unique transaction allows us to retain the upside of the investment portfolio and other benefits, including continued access to cutting-edge companies with greatly reduced costs.
作為我們努力將重點轉回核心業務的一部分,我們也宣布將 JetBlue Ventures 的資產出售給 Sky Leasing。這項獨特的交易使我們能夠保留投資組合的優勢和其他好處,包括以大幅降低的成本繼續接觸尖端公司。
We expect to begin realizing these savings over the second half of this year. For the third quarter, we expect CASM ex fuel to be up 4% to 6%, with approximately 3 points driven by maintenance and roughly 2 points from crew member wages, as we fully lap the pilot wage increase from last August.
我們預計今年下半年將開始實現這些節省。對於第三季度,我們預計 CASM(不含燃油)將上漲 4% 至 6%,其中約 3 個百分點由維護費用推動,約 2 個百分點由機組人員薪資推動,因為我們完全涵蓋了去年 8 月以來飛行員的薪資成長。
Additionally, our third quarter CASM ex has been pressured by a difficult operation in July, representing a 1-point CASM ex headwind from overtime premium wages and other disruption related expenses. Our guidance assumes a more typical operating environment for August and September.
此外,我們第三季的 CASM ex 因 7 月的營運困難而承受壓力,加班費和其他中斷相關費用導致 CASM ex 出現 1 點的逆風。我們的指導假設八月和九月的營運環境更為典型。
Also for the third quarter, there are roughly 2 points of CASM ex benefit driven by fleet transactions, the majority of which is the gain on sale from a portion of our A190s. We expect jet fuel to be in the range of $2.50 to $2.65 per gallon over the quarter, and we currently have no fuel hedges in place.
此外,就第三季而言,機隊交易推動的 CASM 扣除額約為 2 個百分點,其中大部分是我們部分 A190 的銷售收益。我們預計本季航空燃油價格將在每加侖 2.50 美元至 2.65 美元之間,目前我們尚未採取燃油對沖措施。
For the full year, we remain focused on controlling what we had and I'm pleased to announce we expect full year CASM ex fuel of up 5% to 7% year-over-year on 1.5 fewer points of at ASF at the midpoint of our guidance. This reinstates our initial unit cost guidance from the onset of the year despite lower capacity, illustrating the benefits of our strong operation a cost reduction program. At the same time, our full year interest expense remains unchanged at $600 million, and our new capital expenditure forecast for 2025 is $1.2 billion, down slightly from our prior guidance.
對於全年而言,我們將繼續專注於控制我們所擁有的,我很高興地宣布,我們預計全年 CASM 不含燃料將同比增長 5% 至 7%,而 ASF 將比我們指導的中點減少 1.5 個點。儘管產能較低,但這恢復了我們年初的初始單位成本指導,顯示我們強勁的成本削減計劃帶來的好處。同時,我們的全年利息支出保持不變,為 6 億美元,我們對 2025 年的新資本支出預測為 12 億美元,略低於我們先前的預期。
We are working tirelessly to deliver value to our owners, customers and crew members. And we remain confident that JetForward is the right plan to get us there. We have the team, the strategy and the runway in place to drive transformational change, and we're already seeing clear tangible results in our operations and customer satisfaction and in our pass back to profitability.
我們正不懈地為我們的船東、客戶和船員創造價值。我們仍然相信 JetForward 是幫助我們實現這一目標的正確計劃。我們擁有推動轉型變革的團隊、策略和跑道,並且我們已經在營運和客戶滿意度以及獲利能力方面看到了明顯的實際成果。
Thank you, and we will now open it up for questions. Back to you, Abbey.
謝謝大家,我們現在開始提問。回到你身邊,艾比。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Dan McKenzie, Seaport Global.
丹麥肯齊 (Dan McKenzie),Seaport Global。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Oh hey, good morning guys. Great job on the second quarter. A couple of questions here. If I could just start with growth from diminishing AOG starting in 2026. Wondering if you can just help us size the pace of that growth that we should expect? And just related to this, how much larger could JetBlue be today without adding pilot headcount?
喔嘿,大家早安。第二季做得很好。這裡有幾個問題。如果我可以從 2026 年開始減少 AOG 的成長開始。想知道您是否可以幫助我們估算一下我們預期的成長速度嗎?與此相關的是,如果不增加飛行員人數,捷藍航空目前的規模能有多大?
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Good morning, Dan. Thanks for the question. Given all the puts and takes with the fleet, we tried to lay out all the transactions that essentially are delivering us to be able to grow low single digits starting in 2026 through the end of the decade. So we're extremely pleased with the improvement in the AOG forecast, which we will complete and be through by the end of 2027.
早上好,丹。謝謝你的提問。考慮到船隊的所有投入和產出,我們試圖列出所有交易,這些交易實際上使我們能夠從 2026 年開始到本世紀末實現低個位數成長。因此,我們對 AOG 預測的改進感到非常高興,我們將在 2027 年底前完成並完成該預測。
And then we've been trying to optimize the rest of the fleet, whether it be retiring E190s and simplifying it by selling the two XLRs and then deferring just some resales. So we landed on this low single digit. Obviously, we're willing and able to respond to the macro backdrop over that time frame and increase capacity slightly or decrease capacity to better match the outlook based on the demand environment.
然後,我們一直在嘗試優化其餘的機隊,無論是退休 E190 還是透過出售兩輛 XLR 來簡化機隊,然後推遲一些轉售。因此我們最終得到了這個較低的個位數。顯然,我們願意並且能夠對該時間範圍內的宏觀背景做出反應,並略微增加產能或減少產能,以根據需求環境更好地適應前景。
So that's the trajectory. Obviously, we're extremely pleased to be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the AOGs because this has been a material headwinds on JetBlue. And I do believe that when the macro environment continues to improve, this will be a tailwind for us.
這就是軌跡。顯然,我們非常高興能夠看到 AOG 問題上的曙光,因為這對捷藍航空來說是一個重大的阻力。我確實相信,當宏觀環境繼續改善時,這對我們來說將是一個順風。
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
If I could just add the pilot question, we have a sufficient number of crew. We've been managing the challenges with AOG through a series of voluntary programs across both our pilots and our in our airports. And so the benefit of voluntary program is that because we knew the AOG issue was transient in nature, we will be able to sort of adjust our staffing levels appropriately as these aircraft come back into service.
如果我可以補充飛行員的問題,我們的機組人員數量足夠。我們一直在透過針對飛行員和機場的一系列自願計畫來應對 AOG 帶來的挑戰。因此,自願計畫的好處是,因為我們知道 AOG 問題本質上是暫時的,所以當這些飛機恢復服務時,我們將能夠適當地調整我們的人員配備水平。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Yeah. Very good. Marty, if I could go to JetBlue's 51 Partners. I remember when JetBlue first began adding partners, the stat you would share with us all was that these partnerships were filling the equivalent at equivalent of two to three planes per day. I'm just wondering, where is that stat today?
是的。非常好。馬蒂,如果我可以去捷藍航空的 51 個合作夥伴那裡。我記得當捷藍航空首次開始增加合作夥伴時,您與我們分享的統計數據是,這些合作夥伴每天的載客量相當於兩到三架飛機。我只是想知道,今天的統計數據在哪裡?
And then related to that, is there less international inbound today that you would expect to come back in 2026 and '27. And roughly how many percentage points of RASM can that increase connectivity typically drive?
與此相關的是,目前國際入境遊客數量是否比您預期的 2026 年和 2027 年有所減少?提高連線性通常可以推動 RASM 大致提高多少個百分點?
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Okay. Well, a lot of questions, Dan. Let me start with this. We have 51 partners today. And we're -- we feed multiple focus cities, and we're really happy with the partner portfolio that we have. Obviously, the United partnership is going to be very, very important for us, and we're really excited about adding United into the portfolio, not just from a perspective of feed, but also what it's going to do for TrueBlue, what it does Paisly, et cetera. So I feel a lot of upside as far as how that goes.
好的。嗯,有很多問題,丹。讓我從這個開始。我們今天有 51 個合作夥伴。而且我們-我們為多個重點城市提供服務,我們對擁有的合作夥伴組合感到非常滿意。顯然,與 United 的合作對我們來說非常非常重要,我們非常高興將 United 添加到我們的投資組合中,不僅僅是從 feed 的角度,而且還有它對 TrueBlue 的作用,對 Paisly 的作用等等。因此,就事情進展而言,我感覺有很多好處。
I remember also the comments about a (inaudible) airplane, two airplanes. And I think that was back when there was a lot of skepticism about well-cost airlines doing partnerships, now it seems like everybody is talking about partnerships, including ultra low-cost carriers. So I think we sort of don't even look at that way anymore because our view is this is and we've proven the partnerships are very effective for us.
我還記得關於一架(聽不清楚)飛機、兩架飛機的評論。我認為當時人們對廉價航空公司建立合作關係持懷疑態度,但現在似乎每個人都在談論合作關係,包括超低成本航空公司。所以我認為我們甚至不再以那種方式看待問題,因為我們的觀點就是這樣,而且我們已經證明這種合作關係對我們來說非常有效。
The thing we have going for us is that, if you're an international interline that wants access into the interior of the country, and you're not a member of Sky team, obviously, because you've got the Sky team airline with a very big operation in New York and Boston, like your best way to get access into the interior US is JetBlue.
我們的優勢在於,如果您是一家希望進入某個國家內陸地區的國際聯運航空公司,而您又不是天合聯盟的成員,那麼,顯然,由於天合聯盟的航空公司在紐約和波士頓的業務非常龐大,那麼您進入美國內陸的最佳途徑就是選擇捷藍航空。
And I think a lot of our partnerships -- a lot of partners and partnerships are tied to that presence we have in this marketplace. I will also say not just adding United to the mix, but we're looking forward to working with Star Alliance partners, who we think will also appreciate the ability to get connectivity into the East through New York and Boston. But overall, I feel like there's so many things about the JetBlue model.
我認為我們的許多合作夥伴關係——許多合作夥伴和夥伴關係都與我們在這個市場上的存在息息相關。我還要說的是,我們不僅希望將美聯航納入我們的合作夥伴範圍,而且我們也期待與星空聯盟的合作夥伴合作,我們認為他們也會對通過紐約和波士頓飛往東方的航班表示讚賞。但總的來說,我覺得捷藍航空模式有很多可取之處。
And again, I came here in 2006 for the first time. So we think about the JetBlue model people question when we first did the that are now basically accepted as normal course of business for low-cost airlines. And I think it's just another example. We're very proud of the partnerships we've done. We love working with the partners that we do, and I see a lot of upside going forward.
我第一次來這裡是在 2006 年。因此,我們考慮了捷藍航空模式,當時人們在我們首次實施該模式時提出質疑,而現在該模式基本上已被接受為低成本航空公司的正常業務流程。我認為這只是另一個例子。我們對所建立的合作關係感到非常自豪。我們喜歡與合作夥伴一起工作,並且我看到了未來的許多好處。
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Daniel McKenzie - Analyst
Yeah that's perfect. Thanks Marty.
是的,太完美了。謝謝馬蒂。
Operator
Operator
Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.
湯姆·菲茨杰拉德,TD Cowen。
Thomas Fitzgerald - Analyst
Thomas Fitzgerald - Analyst
Hi, thanks so much for the time. I 'm just kind of curious, just looking at the different buckets for JetForward, the four priorities. Are you able to provide any color about how as you go from the 180 to the 290, which are the four buckets, what you expect the contributions to be?
你好,非常感謝您抽出時間。我只是有點好奇,只是想看 JetForward 的不同桶,即四個優先事項。您能否詳細說明一下從 180 到 290 這四個等級的貢獻預計是多少?
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. I can take that. I think, in general, it's kind of spread evenly across the four buckets. I think as you think about the back half of the year, network ramping continues to be a meaningful driver. Most of the change we made in the network relapsed Q3 last year, and they're nicely in ramp, but we've got a ways to go.
是的。我可以接受。我認為,總體而言,它在四個方面均勻分佈。我認為,當你考慮下半年時,網路升級將繼續成為一個重要的驅動力。我們在網路上所做的大部分改變都在去年第三季復發,而且進展順利,但我們還有很長的路要走。
So pleased with the progress. As we mentioned, we've realized $180 million of EBIT cumulatively $90 million 1H. We'll see another $110 million through the year-end for a total of $290 million by the end of this year. And we have very clear proof points across each one of the priority moves that JetForward is working. But it is a multiyear plan, and it's going to take some time to realize the full benefits of it.
對進展非常滿意。正如我們所提到的,我們已實現 1.8 億美元的息稅前利潤,上半年累計達 9,000 萬美元。今年底,我們將再獲得 1.1 億美元,總額將達到 2.9 億美元。並且,我們對 JetForward 正在實施的每項優先措施都有非常明確的證據。但這是一個多年計劃,需要一段時間才能實現其全部效益。
Thomas Fitzgerald - Analyst
Thomas Fitzgerald - Analyst
Okay. Great. That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, I'm just wondering if you mind providing any more color on just kind of customer trends like by the different segments over the course of 2Q and then just quarter-to-date when you have kind of on the books, whether by core leisure, VFR, TrueBlue loyalty members, corporate? Thank you, again.
好的。偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後作為後續問題,我只是想知道您是否介意提供更多關於客戶趨勢的信息,例如第二季度不同細分市場的情況,然後是本季度迄今為止的數據,無論是核心休閒、VFR、TrueBlue 忠誠會員還是企業?再次感謝您。
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Hey Tom, I'll take that one. Thanks for the question. As far as what we're seeing, a lot of what we're seeing is similar to what we've heard from other airlines in their calls, definitely doing better for international than domestic, definitely doing better for a premium versus the basic-type customers.
嘿,湯姆,我要這個。謝謝你的提問。就我們所看到的情況而言,許多情況與我們在其他航空公司的電話會議中聽到的情況類似,國際航班的表現肯定比國內航班更好,高端客戶的表現肯定比基本型客戶更好。
So I think we're sort of consistent with what we're seeing. We continue to see good numbers at TrueBlue. And we talked about some of the numbers as far as the growth of the credit card, our remuneration. I think overall, the trends are actually good. I think the most important trend is one that I give all the credit to our crew members for is our Net Promoter Score.
所以我認為我們所看到的是一致的。我們繼續看到 TrueBlue 的良好業績。我們討論了一些有關信用卡成長和薪資的數字。我認為總體而言,趨勢實際上是好的。我認為最重要的趨勢是我們的淨推薦值,我把所有功勞都歸功於我們的全體成員。
The last report we had done for Net Promoter Score, we were at the top of the industry for NPS. And frankly, we've come a long way in the last three years. So from that perspective, I sort of look at that as -- so the drink so to speak, if we can use the baseball analogy. Because without a great customer experience, we can get these customers on board once or they may not come back.
我們針對淨推薦值所做的最新報告顯示,我們的 NPS 位居行業領先地位。坦白說,過去三年我們取得了長足的進步。所以從這個角度來看,我把它看作是——如果我們可以用棒球來打比方的話,可以說是飲料。因為如果沒有良好的客戶體驗,我們可能無法讓這些客戶再次光臨。
But I had a great gratitude for our crew members providing just amazing service so that the customers who do fly JetBlue are really happy and hopefully come back. And frankly, I'm looking forward to having our partnership customers, whether United or Lufthansa or whoever ends up being a partner, I'll come to fly JetBlue because, again, I feel like once you try it once she'll recognize how much better JetBlue is, and well you very much appreciate the JetBlue experience and look for us in the future.
但我非常感謝我們的機組人員提供的出色服務,讓乘坐捷藍航空的乘客感到非常高興並希望再次乘坐。坦白說,我期待與我們的合作客戶,無論是聯合航空、漢莎航空還是其他任何一家航空公司,我都會選擇搭乘捷藍航空,因為我覺得,一旦你嘗試過一次,你就會認識到捷藍航空有多好,而且你會非常欣賞捷藍航空的體驗,並在未來尋找我們。
I should mention, you asked about business customers. In general, we have -- year-over-year, we've taken a pretty big hit to our business customer network because we've closed a lot of their business routes we flew (inaudible) notwithstanding our business revenue is basically flat quarter over -- year-over-year for the quarter. So I actually see it as a very good sign.
我應該要提一下,您詢問的是商業客戶。總體而言,與去年同期相比,我們的商業客戶網絡受到了相當大的打擊,因為我們關閉了許多我們飛行的商業航線(聽不清楚),儘管本季度我們的業務收入與去年同期相比基本持平。所以我實際上認為這是一個非常好的跡象。
Operator
Operator
Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的傑米貝克。
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Hey, good morning, everybody. So Marty, a question on JetBlue. Do you have a view on where they fly with their seven daily frequencies? I mean, I'm assuming it's transcon as opposed to, I don't know, flying at Dallas or something like that from JFK. So if it is transcon flying, have you modeled for that increased competition as part of your overall Blue Sky estimate?
嘿,大家早安。馬蒂,我有一個關於捷藍航空的問題。您對於他們每天七次的飛行頻率飛往哪裡有什麼看法?我的意思是,我假設它是跨大陸的,而不是,我不知道,從達拉斯或類似的地方從甘迺迪機場起飛。那麼,如果是跨大陸飛行,您是否將日益激烈的競爭納入了整體藍天評估模型中?
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Hey, Jamie, this is Joanna. I'll take that. So as you know, it will be illegal for us to discuss with our partner where they may intend to fly the JFK slot. So we have not had those conversations, nor do we intend to. Obviously, we've made certain assumptions in our model as to what the impact of United flying those swaps may be and that is included in the value of the overall deal.
嘿,傑米,這是喬安娜。我會接受的。因此,如您所知,我們與合作夥伴討論他們打算在何處飛行甘迺迪機場航班是違法的。因此,我們沒有進行過這些對話,也不打算進行。顯然,我們在模型中對美聯航航班掉期可能產生的影響做出了某些假設,這些假設已包含在整個交易的價值中。
There's obviously a series of puts and takes. United was obviously addressed in the slots and there is an impact to JetBlue if they operate those slots to a variety of different markets. At the same time, selling the JetBlue network over United.com has a very important revenue benefit for JetBlue. Likewise, the utility of the TrueBlue program and giving our customers global access as you know, we sort of focused our own network on trying to drive scale in the Northeast.
顯然,這裡有一系列的付出和收穫。美聯航顯然在時刻方面受到了影響,如果捷藍航空將這些時刻運營到不同的市場,那麼將對捷藍航空產生影響。同時,透過 United.com 出售捷藍航空網絡可以為捷藍航空帶來非常重要的收入效益。同樣,正如您所知,TrueBlue 計劃的實用性以及為我們的客戶提供全球訪問權限,我們將自己的網路重點放在嘗試擴大東北地區的規模上。
This is about trying to give scale to our customers to a global network. And then pale is sort of the real upside here in terms of the unique opportunity for us to basically provide a white label platform for United to sell its nonair ancillaries in the future.
這是為了嘗試將我們的客戶擴展到全球網路。就我們為美聯航未來銷售非航空輔助產品提供白標平台的獨特機會而言,這算是真正的好處。
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Okay, perfect. Thanks for the clarification. And then maybe, Marty, this is one for you. And maybe it's too early to ask this question, but you're obviously aware that certain struggling discounters are trying to lean into premium, I mean it's more of a leg room exercise really. But in any case, in overlap markets, have any of those new products that have begun being sold by your competitors having any impact on your results?
好的,完美。感謝您的澄清。那麼也許,馬蒂,這就是為你準備的。也許現在問這個問題還為時過早,但你顯然意識到某些苦苦掙扎的折扣店正試圖向高端市場靠攏,我的意思是這實際上更像是一種腿部空間練習。但無論如何,在重疊市場中,您的競爭對手開始銷售的新產品是否會對您的業績產生影響?
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Hey Jamie, great question. And I will tell you, we have seen no impact whatsoever from any of these so-called premium products that are competing against us. I think if you look at our 15 years -- or actually 20 years of experience, including even more legroom of premium products. We have great, great credibility with our customers that we can offer a great, great premium products.
嘿,傑米,好問題。我可以告訴你們,我們沒有看到任何來自與我們競爭的所謂高端產品的影響。我想,如果你看看我們 15 年——或者實際上是 20 年的經驗,其中包括更多的高端產品空間。我們在客戶中享有極高的信譽,我們可以提供優質的產品。
And I feel like you can try to do that in a ULCC environment, but I really don't feel like it's kind of come close to what we've been offering for 20 years. So from that perspective, I think I'll paraphrase Harry Truman when the customer is choosing between a real premium product and a fake premium product, the real ones are going to win.
我覺得你可以嘗試在 ULCC 環境中做到這一點,但我真的不覺得它與我們 20 年來所提供的服務相差甚遠。因此,從這個角度來看,我認為我應該引用哈里·杜魯門的話,當顧客在真正的優質產品和假冒的優質產品之間進行選擇時,真正的優質產品將會勝出。
And fundamentally, that's what we're seeing right now. And if you look at -- we just went through our recent announcement of some growth in Fort Lauderdale where our biggest competitor is ULCC. And frankly, I feel like that is an example of how well we are doing in that market. I mean we really are the only non-ULCC option in Fort Lauderdale, and we're very competitive with the Hub Airport down a couple of miles down the beach. But even with all that, I think it's also worth mentioning bringing us back to JetForward, we continue to evolve our premium products.
從根本上來說,這就是我們現在所看到的。如果你看一下——我們剛剛宣布了勞德代爾堡的一些增長,我們最大的競爭對手是 ULCC。坦白說,我覺得這是我們在該市場表現良好的一個例子。我的意思是,我們確實是勞德代爾堡唯一的非 ULCC 選擇,而且我們與距離海灘幾英里的樞紐機場相比非常有競爭力。但即便如此,我認為值得一提的是,讓我們回到 JetForward,我們會繼續改進我們的優質產品。
We relaunched EvenMore with enhanced customer experience. And like most importantly, we announced the domestic first class product that's coming out next year. So even as well as we've done in premium and as well as the revenue results have been, we're not resting on our laurels. We'll continue to do more exciting products.
我們重新推出了 EvenMore,並增強了客戶體驗。最重要的是,我們宣布了將於明年推出的國內一流產品。因此,儘管我們在高端市場表現良好,收入也很好,但我們不會滿足於現狀。我們將繼續推出更多令人興奮的產品。
We could not be more excited about the domestic first-class product. And frankly, I think our timing is great for it because we're really seeing that, I keep using the phrase, the of a lot of the manage to bottom and a lot of the top and we are really well positioned to capture that demand at the top of the demand curve.
我們對國內一流的產品感到無比興奮。坦白說,我認為我們的時機非常好,因為我們確實看到,我一直使用這個短語,很多管理都處於底部,很多管理都處於頂部,我們確實處於有利位置,可以在需求曲線的頂部捕捉到這種需求。
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Thanks, I appreciate that. It actually was some of those Fort Lauderdale ads that you announced that actually got me wondering about it. And I obviously share your skepticism. Thanks for your answer
謝謝,我很感激。事實上,正是您發布的一些勞德代爾堡廣告讓我對此產生了疑惑。我顯然也和你一樣持懷疑態度。謝謝你的回答
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Well, again, you might be don't matter, it's a customer. It's (inaudible) going with their feet like always. (multiple speakers)
好吧,再說一次,你可能不重要,你是顧客。它(聽不清楚)像往常一樣用腳移動。(多位發言者)
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Jamie Baker - Analyst
It's just refreshing for me to agree with the management on anything these days, it seems, so yes, I was just pointing out.
這些天來,我似乎在任何事情上都同意管理層的意見,這對我來說是令人耳目一新的,所以是的,我只是指出這一點。
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Maybe we'll let you into the lounge (inaudible) .
也許我們會讓你進入休息室(聽不清楚)。
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Jamie Baker - Analyst
Thanks guys.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Savanth Syth, Raymond James.
薩凡斯·西斯,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Savanth Syth - Analyst
Savanth Syth - Analyst
Hey, good morning, everyone. if I might follow up on Dan's earlier question on the capacity growth in 2026, a little bit more. Just how much of that growth is coming from reversals of AOG and even in 2027? I'm just trying to get a sense of just how much of this, at least the very near-term growth in the next couple of years might be highly efficient from a cost perspective?
大家早安。我可以稍微回答一下丹之前關於 2026 年產能成長的問題嗎?其中有多少成長是來自於 AOG 的逆轉,甚至是 2027 年的成長?我只是想了解一下,從成本角度來看,至少在未來幾年內,這種成長在多大程度上可能是高效的?
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Savi. I mean the majority of the projected growth is driven by the improvements in AOGs. I mean if you take a step back, our original guidance for this year was that we have mid- to high teens number of aircraft on the ground, and we're now trending lower than 10% on average for the full year. We believe that this year is the peak.
是的。謝謝你的提問,薩維。我的意思是,預計的成長大部分是由 AOG 的改進所推動的。我的意思是,如果你退一步來看,我們今年的最初指導是地面上的飛機數量為中到高等數量,而現在全年平均趨勢低於 10%。我們相信今年是頂峰。
So as we navigate through 2026, that will come down over time and be complete by the end of 2027. I think one of the major benefits here is gaining some efficiency on the unit cost growth trajectory. Obviously, we've been pressured in not being able to grow over the last two years. And so this should give us a level of efficiency on the cost side of the equation.
因此,當我們進入 2026 年時,這一目標將隨著時間的推移而實現,並在 2027 年底完成。我認為這裡的主要好處之一是在單位成本成長軌跡上獲得一些效率。顯然,過去兩年我們面臨著無法成長的壓力。因此,這應該會讓我們在成本上達到一定程度的效率。
So again, I'm hopeful that the macro backdrop is going to continue to improve. And when that does, this is going to be a tailwind for us, not only on the growth side, the cost side, but just from a true profitability perspective.
因此,我再次希望宏觀背景能夠持續改善。一旦實現,這對我們來說將是一個順風,不僅在成長方面、成本方面,而且從真正的獲利角度來看。
Savanth Syth - Analyst
Savanth Syth - Analyst
Appreciate that. Thanks for that. And if I might, I wonder if you could -- and I don't know if this is a question for Marty perhaps, like just talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the competitive landscape and is like this current environment is causing any kind of change of behavior among any of your competitors?
非常感謝。謝謝。如果可以的話,我想知道您是否可以——我不知道這是否是問馬蒂的問題,例如,請稍微談談您所看到的競爭格局,以及當前的環境是否會導致您的競爭對手發生任何行為變化?
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
It's a good question. I mean, honestly, I don't think -- I would not call it anything unusual in the competitive landscape right now. The one thing that I would say is we're obviously watching very closely the pull downs we're seeing in the ULCC world, and we've reacted to that with some of the growth reported recently.
這是個好問題。我的意思是,老實說,我不認為——在目前的競爭格局中我認為這並不是什麼不尋常的事情。我想說的一件事是,我們顯然在密切關注超低碳世界中出現的下滑趨勢,並且我們對此做出了反應,最近報告了一些增長情況。
I think another thing that is important to be on the list is just trying to understand what the likely trajectory is going to be of capacity for the industry because I would think we're still not exactly clear what the rest of the year is going to look like as far as growth rate, and that's obviously going to be very important to try us understanding what we should be expecting for the rest of the year.
我認為列入名單的另一件重要的事情就是試圖了解該行業產能的可能軌跡,因為我認為我們仍然不完全清楚今年剩餘時間的增長率將會如何,這顯然對於我們了解今年剩餘時間的預期非常重要。
But overall, I'm not looking at any significant sort of noteworthy change in behavior that I would call out. I don't know, Joanna, if you see something like. I think we're we're focused on the changes that we were putting forward in the original JetForward plan, all the network changes that we went through, and that's -- we're really sort of heads down on that right now.
但總體而言,我沒有看到任何值得我指出的重大行為變化。喬安娜,我不知道你是否看過類似的東西。我認為我們專注於我們在原始 JetForward 計劃中提出的變更,以及我們經歷的所有網路變更,而且——我們現在確實全神貫注於此。
Savanth Syth - Analyst
Savanth Syth - Analyst
That sounds, thank you.
聽起來不錯,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的麥克‧林伯格。
Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst
Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst
Great. Good morning everyone. I want to go back to your comment just about the higher mix of close-in bookings, this acceleration. Is this temporary? Is this structural? I sort of think as JetBlue rolls out a first-class product next year, I mean you're probably going to get -- you're going to rebuild your share of corporate. I mean, are we on to something here?
偉大的。大家早安。我想回到您關於近距離預訂組合更高以及這種加速的評論。這是暫時的嗎?這是結構性的嗎?我認為,隨著捷藍航空明年推出頭等艙產品,你可能會得到——你將重建你的企業份額。我的意思是,我們在這裡發現了什麼嗎?
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Hi, Mike, great question. And trust me, it's a question we ask ourselves every single day, we look at the booking report, at least since we started to see the strength. I don't think any of us are ready to call this to be a permanent change. And it's one of the reasons why we're relatively cautious as far as our guidance.
嗨,麥克,這個問題問得好。相信我,這是我們每天都會問自己的問題,我們會查看預訂報告,至少自從我們開始看到實力以來。我認為我們中沒有人願意將此稱為永久性的改變。這也是我們在指導方面相對謹慎的原因之一。
I do think based on the research that we have done, I do believe a big chunk of it is just consumer sentiment and customers being cautious because of bigger uncertainty with all the stuff going on with tariffs and who knows what other stuff. I'm not sure I understand the core drivers of it, but it certainly has the feeling of the, I'm going to wait a while before I made my booking. I think the reason I mentioned that is because we really didn't see it in April, so much into any measure.
我確實認為,根據我們所做的研究,我相信其中很大一部分只是消費者情緒和客戶謹慎,因為關稅等所有事情的不確定性更大,誰知道還有什麼其他事情。我不確定我是否理解它的核心驅動力,但它確實給人一種感覺,我要等一段時間才能預訂。我認為我提到這一點的原因是,我們在四月確實沒有看到任何跡象表明會出現如此大的波動。
It really was, I would say, middle of May, when we started seeing Memorial Day bookings pick up. We had a fantastic Memorial Day, much better than forecast, and that really carried into June. But it does have the feeling of people just waited a long time to make the final decisions. And then when they decided, they made their bookings. But I don't -- I would not call this something that we expected to be a permanent fixture over change for the booking patterns.
我想說,實際上從五月中旬開始,我們就開始看到陣亡將士紀念日的預訂量回升。我們度過了一個美妙的陣亡將士紀念日,比預期的要好得多,而且這種感覺一直持續到了六月。但確實給人一種人們等待了很長時間才做出最終決定的感覺。當他們做出決定後,他們就進行預訂。但我並不認為這是我們期望的預訂模式永久改變的東西。
Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst
Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just my second, I know -- I think, Joanna, you called out the $50 million sort of incremental EBIT because of the United partnership. What was the placeholder amount that you had for partnerships in the original get forward plan? Just trying to get a total advise of the United contribution. Thank you.
好的。偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題,我知道——喬安娜,我想你提到了由於與聯合航空的合作而產生的 5000 萬美元增量息稅前利潤。在最初的前進計畫中,你們為合作夥伴預留的金額是多少?只是想獲得有關聯合國貢獻的全面建議。謝謝。
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yes, thanks, Mike. We haven't broken out the total amount. As we've said before and JetForward, there's a number of puts and takes that were only focus on kind of the contribution of each of the priority moves as a whole. So the $15 million incremental EBIT that's largely associated with the benefits from Paisly as part of the United partnership, but we haven't broken it out. You should expect kind of full run rate 2028 for BlueSky. It takes some time to implement it, and it will be staged with benefits coming over the course of the next couple of years.
是的,謝謝,麥克。我們還沒有公佈總額。正如我們之前和 JetForward 所說的那樣,有許多投入和產出僅關注整體上每個優先措施的貢獻。因此,1500 萬美元的增量息稅前利潤主要與 Paisly 作為聯合合作夥伴關係的一部分所帶來的收益有關,但我們尚未將其分拆出來。您應該期待 BlueSky 在 2028 年實現全面運作。實施該政策需要一些時間,並將在未來幾年內逐步顯現效益。
Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst
Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst
Okay, great. Thank you.
好的,太好了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. Marty, maybe just one more on the revenue environment. Can you just talk about RASM between the months of the second quarter? And then what's underlying the monthly progression for the third quarter guide? Anything you can provide on book yields or loads? And with bookings fairly close in, as you've been talking about, how are you going about your September forecast? Thanks.
嘿,大家早安。謝謝你的時間。馬蒂,我們再問一個關於收入環境的問題。您能談談第二季各月份之間的 RASM 嗎?那麼第三季指南的月度進度背後是什麼呢?您能提供有關書籍產量或負載的任何資訊嗎?正如您所說,預訂量已經相當接近尾聲,那麼您對 9 月的預測如何呢?謝謝。
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Hi Cathy, thanks for the questions. Good questions, too. As far as the progression, I think we really start accelerating. We don't generally give a lot of monthly feedback, but I'll just give a little bit right now. We really saw progression sort of Memorial Day forward, and it was pretty hefty progression.
你好 Cathy,謝謝你的提問。也是很好的問題。就進展而言,我認為我們確實開始加速。我們通常不會提供很多月度回饋,但我現在只提供一點。我們確實看到了陣亡將士紀念日以來的進步,而且是相當大的進步。
I mean, as you saw, we had a pretty big beat for the second quarter. I think if you asked the exact question on April 30, no one would have predicted a beat like that. But really, when we get to the the middle of May, we really started to see things turn on and continue.
我的意思是,正如你所看到的,我們在第二季度取得了相當大的成功。我想如果你在 4 月 30 日問同樣的問題,沒有人會預測到這樣的結果。但實際上,當我們進入五月中旬時,我們才真正開始看到事情開始好轉並持續下去。
And that is continuing through July and August and -- June, July and August, and I think the real issue is that this is one of the only prolonged peak periods of the calendar year. And one of things that every airline has been calling out, including some of the biggest of legacies is that there's a pretty significant difference between peak and trough demand.
這種情況會持續到七月、八月和六月、七月和八月,我認為真正的問題是,這是一年中唯一一個持續較長的高峰期。每家航空公司都強調的一個問題,包括一些最大的遺留問題,就是高峰需求和低谷需求之間存在著相當大的差異。
Now clearly, we still have troughs. Our load factor will be down in the third quarter versus third quarter 2024, and the troughs are weaker than the peaks. But in general, this is a period of really good peak demand, specifically with September, we've done a lot of self-help in September as far as pulling down ASMs. We pulled a lot of off-peak capacity. And again, thanks to some of the programs that Joanna mentioned with respect to voluntary leaves, we're doing the best we can to control our costs during September.
現在很明顯,我們仍然處於低谷。與 2024 年第三季相比,我們的第三季載客率將會下降,且低谷會比高峰弱。但總的來說,這是一個非常好的高峰需求時期,特別是 9 月份,我們在 9 月份做了很多自救工作來降低 ASM。我們利用了大量的非高峰容量。再次感謝喬安娜提到的一些有關自願休假的計劃,我們正在盡最大努力控制九月份的成本。
And frankly, I think the fact that we continue to meet our cost guide, and we have met it for seven -- six to seven quarters, I think seven quarters consecutively, even in light of all these changes, just shows how well we are doing as far as managing our costs even with relatively close in schedule changes.
坦白說,我認為,即使考慮到所有這些變化,我們仍然能夠繼續達到我們的成本指導,而且我們已經連續七個季度(六到七個季度)達到這一目標,我想是連續七個季度,這表明,即使在時間表變化相對較近的情況下,我們在管理成本方面也做得很好。
So I look at this and I feel like we will be well set up for the third quarter guide that we laid out. As of right now, I think with the work we done in September, September actually has the highest year-over-year RASM increase of the three months in the third quarter. So I think it just shows how well we've managed September through capacity. So actually very positive about that.
因此,我看著這個,覺得我們將為我們制定的第三季指南做好充分的準備。截至目前,我認為根據我們 9 月所做的工作,9 月實際上是第三季三個月中 RASM 年增幅最高的。所以我認為這表明我們在 9 月的管理工作做得有多好。所以實際上對此非常樂觀。
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
Catherine O'Brien - Analyst
That's great. Thanks a lot, Marty. Maybe one for you, Ursula. With all the fleet updates driving low single-digit growth through the end of the decade, how should we be thinking about your historical comments on low single-digit growth, driving mid-single-digit CASM ex. Should that be better over the next couple of years as JetForward ramp? Thanks.
那太棒了。非常感謝,馬蒂。也許有一個適合你,烏蘇拉。由於所有船隊更新都將推動本世紀末的低個位數成長,我們應該如何看待您對低個位數成長、推動中位數個位數 CASM 成長的歷史評論?隨著 JetForward 的不斷發展,未來幾年情況會有所改善嗎?謝謝。
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks for the question. Yeah, previously, we've highlighted mid- to high single-digit growth will result in a flattish CASM ex fuel. So if you just triangulate low single-digit growth rate. Obviously, the unit cost performance will be higher than flattish. I'm extremely pleased with the cost performance that the team has been executing to.
是的。謝謝你的提問。是的,之前我們強調過,中高個位數的成長將導致 CASM 燃料價格持平。因此,如果你只是對低個位數成長率進行三角測量。顯然,單位成本表現會比持平更高。我對團隊一直以來執行的成本效益感到非常滿意。
I mean, at the highest level, we've maintained the unit cost growth guide that we gave last in January despite pulling capacity over 1.5 points. So we're finding ways to take cost out of the business and some of these decisions have not been easy, between divesting the JetBlue Tech Ventures as well as additional budget targets and going through a corporate headcount support center review, like these are tough decisions, but we need to continue to deliver on cost.
我的意思是,儘管產能增加了 1.5 個百分點,但我們仍然維持了去年 1 月給出的單位成本成長指南。因此,我們正在尋找方法來降低業務成本,而其中一些決定並不容易,例如剝離捷藍航空科技創投公司以及額外的預算目標,並進行公司員工支援中心審查,這些都是艱難的決定,但我們需要繼續降低成本。
We've executed for seven quarters in a row. And I do think the AOG outlook will provide us the improvements that we're seeing here on the [AOG] outlook will provide us further efficiencies as we build a unit cost growth target for 2026 and beyond.
我們已經連續七個季度執行。我確實認為 AOG 前景將為我們提供我們在 [AOG] 前景上看到的改進,這將為我們提供進一步的效率,因為我們正在為 2026 年及以後製定單位成本增長目標。
Operator
Operator
Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.
杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth),Evercore ISI。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just on the Travel Products business or Paisly business, can you expand on how you kind of generate a margin in that business on your own bundle, what shape does that take? Is it commission based? Is it kind of a third-party clearing house? Do you have negotiated agreements on room inventory. And then maybe you could contrast again, high-level broad strokes the margin you make on one of your own customers versus the margin you'd make on a third-party airline customer like United?
嘿,謝謝。早安.僅就旅遊產品業務或 Paisly 業務而言,您能否詳細說明如何在自己的捆綁業務中創造利潤,採取什麼形式?它是基於佣金的嗎?它是一種第三方清算機構嗎?你們是否就客房庫存達成了協商協議?然後,也許您可以再次進行高層次的粗略對比,比較一下您從自己的一個客戶身上獲得的利潤與您從聯合航空等第三方航空公司客戶身上獲得的利潤?
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Hi, Duane, thanks for the question. Great question, by the way. And I love talking about Paisly because, a, it's been a fantastic product for us and a great product for our customers, and b, as you saw from our guide up for JetForward, it's going to be an important part of our recovery program going forward and an important part of BlueSky.
你好,杜安,謝謝你的提問。順便說一句,這個問題問得好。我喜歡談論 Paisly,因為:a,它對我們來說是一款出色的產品,對我們的客戶來說也是一款出色的產品;b,正如您從我們的 JetForward 指南中看到的那樣,它將成為我們未來恢復計劃的重要組成部分,也是 BlueSky 的重要組成部分。
So as far as how the math works, it's actually very simple. Just as a reminder for those who don't understand what we do through Paisly, selling all of our non-air ancillary products. So that includes hotel packages under JetBlue vacations brand, it includes stand-alone has an hotels, it includes travel insurance, it includes cruises.
至於數學如何運作,它實際上非常簡單。只是提醒那些不了解我們透過 Paisly 所做的事情的人,我們銷售所有非航空輔助產品。因此,其中包括捷藍航空假期品牌下的酒店套餐,包括獨立的酒店,包括旅遊保險,包括遊輪。
We actually have like theme pack tickets, like all sorts of things that customers use that are tied to a flight booking. Interesting enough, we see customers who will book Paisly were not tied to flight booking. We sold cruises originating in Asia, for example, because they like the prices that we have and the ability to earn TrueBlue points. So Paisly has actually been great for our customers.
我們實際上有主題包票之類的東西,顧客使用的各種東西都與航班預訂相關。有趣的是,我們發現預訂 Paisly 的客戶並不受航班預訂的限制。例如,我們銷售從亞洲出發的遊輪,因為他們喜歡我們的價格以及賺取 TrueBlue 積分的能力。因此,Paisly 對我們的客戶來說確實非常棒。
We basically earn on commissions. So we get commissions from the hotels, from the rental car company, insurance, et cetera. We've negotiated -- we don't really the exact number, but we're in the four digits of the number of hotels with whom we have contracts in addition to a great exclusive deal right now with Airbus for rental cars.
我們基本上靠佣金賺錢。因此,我們從飯店、租車公司、保險公司等處獲得佣金。我們已經進行了談判——我們並沒有確切的數字,但我們已經與數以四位數的酒店簽訂了合同,此外,我們還與空中巴士簽訂了租車的獨家協議。
And overall, it's been a great profit generator for us. The EBIT margin for Paisly is in the 50s and climbing into the 60s. It's also a very low capital business. The only capital we spend is basically a little bit of IT CapEx.
總體而言,它為我們帶來了巨大的利潤。Paisly 的息稅前利潤率目前為 50%,預計將攀升至 60%。這也是一項資本非常低的事業。我們花費的唯一資本基本上是一小部分 IT 資本支出。
And frankly, what we're most excited about is that we can scale this product up with the addition of access to United customers. And the way we describe it is basically it's the leads business. We bring them 40 million leads -- excuse me, the airline brings 40 million leads a year into Paisly, and now we're going to add nine digits of leads from United customers.
坦白說,我們最興奮的是,我們可以透過增加聯合航空客戶的存取權限來擴大該產品的規模。我們描述它的方式基本上是,它是主導業務。我們為他們帶來了 4000 萬條線索——對不起,該航空公司每年為 Paisly 帶來 4000 萬條線索,現在我們要從聯合航空客戶那裡增加九位數的線索。
We don't actually know what United's margins are for their current relationships because that's not something that we would share. But when you look at what we're producing and what we believe we can produce United, they made the independent decision that we would do a better job of generating profit for them than their current partners. We are splitting the commissions.
我們實際上並不知道美聯航目前與航空公司的合作關係的利潤是多少,因為這不是我們願意分享的訊息。但是,當你看看我們正在生產什麼以及我們相信我們能夠生產什麼時,你會發現聯合航空做出了獨立的決定,認為我們會比他們目前的合作夥伴更好地為他們創造利潤。我們正在分攤佣金。
We're not releasing that split publicly. So unfortunately, I can't give you that amount of detail. But we're really excited about it. I know this is something that we are extremely good at. We have a group of people who are red ring from JetBlue, separate IT systems, separate everything. They're in Fort Lauderdale. They're not in New York.
我們不會公開發布這項分裂消息。所以很遺憾,我無法向您提供那麼多細節。但我們對此感到非常興奮。我知道這是我們非常擅長的事。我們有一群來自捷藍航空的紅環人員,擁有獨立的 IT 系統,將一切分開。他們在勞德代爾堡。他們不在紐約。
And this has really been set up to be a white label for multiple brands. We are talking to additional airlines over and above United. And in fact, we're talking to some non-airlines. And this group is very, very good at the job, and we're really excited about its ability to contribute to our profitability going forward.
這實際上已被設定為多個品牌的白標。除了聯合航空以外,我們還在與其他航空公司洽談。事實上,我們正在與一些非航空公司進行洽談。這個團隊非常非常擅長這項工作,我們對他們未來為我們獲利能力做出貢獻的能力感到非常興奮。
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst
Okay, I appreciate the thoughts, Marty.
好的,我很感激你的想法,馬蒂。
Operator
Operator
Atul Maheswari, UBS.
瑞銀的 Atul Maheswari。
Atul Maheswari - Analyst
Atul Maheswari - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. On fourth quarter -- I know you're not providing RASM guidance yet, but assuming demand stays at current levels, should RASM improve versus the third quarter, again on a year-over-year basis, so fourth quarter year-over-year versus third quarter year-over-year, does that improve in the fourth quarter if demand stays at current levels or does it take a step back given you lap some of the December strength from last year? So just some directional color using your third quarter guidance as a marker would be helpful assuming that the fourth quarter demand is in line with what you've assumed for the third quarter.
早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。關於第四季度——我知道您還沒有提供 RASM 指導,但假設需求保持在當前水平,RASM 是否應該比第三季度有所改善,同樣是同比改善,那麼第四季度同比與第三季度同比,如果需求保持在當前水平,第四季度的情況會有所改善嗎?還是會有所回落,因為您彌補了去年 12 月的一些強勁表現?因此,假設第四季度的需求與您對第三季的假設一致,那麼使用第三季的指導作為標記的一些方向性顏色將會很有幫助。
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Okay. Hi, Atul, thanks for the question. I'm not going to come close to approximately on the guide. So I'm going to answer your question very carefully because we've deliberately chosen not to guide fourth quarter. And there's really two reasons.
好的。你好,Atul,謝謝你的提問。我不會接近指南中的大概內容。因此,我將非常謹慎地回答你的問題,因為我們故意選擇不指導第四季。事實上有兩個原因。
One of them is that, when so much of the strength we're seeing in the third quarter is coming from close-end bookings, which is a new pattern for us, I don't know that we want to call that as a permanent change in the booking curve, number one.
其中之一是,當我們在第三季度看到的大部分強勁表現來自於封閉式預訂時,這對我們來說是一個新模式,我不知道我們是否想將其稱為預訂曲線的永久性變化,這是第一點。
Number two, there's a lot of uncertainty as far as the ASMs that are going to be out there in the industry. I think if you look at what airlines have reported their growth was, that would give you one assumption on RASM. If you look at what's actually out there loaded and what practice has been as far as people are actually flying, that would give you a different number.
第二,就產業中即將出現的 ASM 而言,存在著許多不確定性。我認為,如果你看看航空公司報告的成長情況,你就會對 RASM 做出假設。如果你看一下實際裝載的貨物以及人們實際飛行的情況,你就會得到一個不同的數字。
And frankly, we are still offering a little bit too many ASMs in the fourth quarter. If you look at our annual guide for ASMs and look what out there selling, it's very easy to do the math that we have probably a little (inaudible) point of ASMs to pull in the fourth quarter. They're still out there selling. So I think with the lack of visibility on both the pace on how permanent this change in booking patterns will be and also on whether the capacity cuts in the fourth quarter will go forward for the rest of the industry.
坦白說,我們在第四季度提供的 ASM 仍然有點太多了。如果您查看我們的 ASM 年度指南並查看市場上銷售的產品,您會很容易地計算出,在第四季度我們可能會有少量(聽不清楚) ASM 可供銷售。他們仍在那裡銷售。因此,我認為,我們既無法預測預訂模式的這種變化速度會持續多久,也無法預測第四季度其他航空公司的運力削減是否會持續下去。
I think it's too early to tell. That being the case, I think that what we've seen as far as the bigger performance in second quarter and then on top of that, the progression in the third quarter, we're feeling very confident about where the revenue environment is as far as recovery. But I think it's way too soon to call the specifics of what you're asking for fourth quarter.
我認為現在下結論還為時過早。既然如此,我認為,就我們在第二季看到的更出色的表現以及第三季的進展而言,我們對收入環境的復甦情況非常有信心。但我認為現在說出你對第四季的具體要求還為時過早。
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. We have less than 20% booked for Q4. And so as we get a bit closer, we'll be in a position to provide an update.
是的。我們第四季的訂單量不到 20%。因此,隨著時間的流逝,我們將能夠提供最新消息。
Atul Maheswari - Analyst
Atul Maheswari - Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. And then as my follow-up, as you return to growth next year, where will this growth be concentrated, like what markets, geographies that you believe you're underserving today that could benefit from this growth? And related to that, how do you ensure that this growth does not cause any meaningful RASM dilution next year that could maybe offset some of the CASM ex benefit that you might get?
好的。很公平。然後作為我的後續問題,當您明年恢復成長時,這種成長將集中在哪裡,例如,您認為目前服務不足的哪些市場、哪些地區可以從這種成長中受益?與此相關,您如何確保這種增長不會導致明年 RASM 出現任何有意義的稀釋,從而可能抵消您可能獲得的部分 CASM 扣除收益?
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. Thanks for the question. So we're not going to open the playbook and tell our competitors where we're flying next year. So I think we'll keep that close to the [vest] until we're ready to communicate more carefully what we're going to be doing with that flying.
是的。謝謝你的提問。因此,我們不會公開劇本並告訴我們的競爭對手我們明年的飛行目的地。因此我認為我們將對這一消息保密,直到我們準備好更仔細地溝通我們將如何處理這次飛行。
I think in terms of your second question around how we're thinking about ensuring that the growth doesn't erode random and or impact sort of that low single-digit cost trajectory. A few things, the growth is very capital-efficient. We already own these aircraft that are coming back into service.
我認為就你的第二個問題而言,我們如何考慮確保成長不會侵蝕隨機性或影響低個位數成本軌跡。有幾件事,成長非常具有資本效率。我們已經擁有這些重新投入使用的飛機。
So there's very small costs associated with that, as we think about it. If the environment doesn't improve or further degrades, we have a number of different levers we can pull to manage that growth. And I think if you look at what we've been doing this year, we've been doing just that. So we've reduced capacity, we've looked at making actions with the fleet, so we've taken 4 of our 10 classics and we're not going to be restyling those.
因此,我們認為,這相關的成本非常小。如果環境沒有改善或進一步惡化,我們可以採取多種不同的手段來控制這種成長。我認為,如果你看看我們今年所做的事情,你會發現我們一直在做這些事情。因此,我們減少了運力,考慮對車隊採取行動,因此我們從 10 輛經典車中抽取了 4 輛,並且不會對它們進行重新設計。
We've also sold two XLRs and then we can obviously adjust utilization up and down as the case may be. So I think we've got a track record of being pretty aggressive with the fleet to manage the demand environment, whether it's the sales that we've done or as we think about going forward, needing to manage capacity closer in. So we'll adjust as we need to. But the goal is this is very efficient growth because we already own these aircraft, and it should drive improvements to unit costs.
我們也售出了兩台 XLR,因此我們顯然可以根據具體情況上下調整使用率。因此,我認為我們在積極利用機隊來管理需求環境方面有著良好的記錄,無論是我們已經完成的銷售,還是我們考慮未來需要更緊密地管理運力。因此我們會根據需要進行調整。但目標是實現非常有效率的成長,因為我們已經擁有這些飛機,而且它應該推動單位成本的改善。
Atul Maheswari - Analyst
Atul Maheswari - Analyst
Thank you and good luck with the rest of the year.
謝謝您,祝您今年餘下的時間一切順利。
Operator
Operator
Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克(Ravi Shanker)。
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Great, thanks. Just a couple of follow-ups here. I think you said earlier in the call that you expect BlueSky to be implemented in stages. So how do you think about that kind of ramping in the next two, three years? Is that going to be pretty lumpy? And kind of if you could give us some color on kind of when the next is going in? Or is it still going to be pretty linear?
太好了,謝謝。這裡僅有幾個後續問題。我想您在早些時候的通話中說過,您希望 BlueSky 分階段實施。那麼您如何看待未來兩三年內這種成長趨勢?這會不會很粗糙?您能否告訴我們下一次什麼時候開始?或者它仍然會相當線性?
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, maybe I'll just grab at a high level. So we're still working on the implementation plan with United. So I don't want to get into a ton of specifics. I will say the NEA has set us up pretty well, the Northeast Latin America and the technology we did behind that has set us up pretty well from a technology perspective.
是的,也許我只會抓住高水準。因此,我們仍在與美聯航合作制定實施計劃。所以我不想談論太多細節。我想說的是,國家能源局為我們做好了充分的準備,從技術角度來看,拉丁美洲東北部以及我們背後所做的技術也為我們做好了充分的準備。
So you'll start seeing kind of earn and burn and interline sales come sooner. There's very little contemplated this year. Those will kind of layer in into '26 and then Paisly would come after that. There's some more technology needed to implement Paisly. Ultimately, we will not achieve, as I mentioned, kind of full year run rate until 2028.
因此,您將會更快地看到盈利和虧損以及聯運銷售的出現。今年考慮的事情很少。這些將會在 26 年逐漸顯現,然後 Paisly 將會到來。實現 Paisly 還需要一些技術。最終,正如我所提到的,我們要到 2028 年才能實現全年運行率。
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Understood. And Marty, I think you were talking about next quarter and kind of how a lot of capacity has come out and you've taken a lot of trough capacity. But again, just going back to the kind of a little bit of a blind sight the industry got in February and March and a lot of that came from closing weakness. Is that a risk that after a pretty decent kind of peak season with summer that close in continues to kind of resume that drop off, if you will in the third quarter? And if so, do you think the industry is taking (inaudible)
明白了。馬蒂,我想您談論的是下個季度的情況,以及如何釋放大量產能以及您佔用大量低谷產能。但是,再一次回顧一下 2 月和 3 月行業所經歷的盲點,其中很大一部分原因是收盤疲軟。這是否有風險?在經歷了相當不錯的夏季旺季之後,第三季的銷售量是否會繼續下滑?如果是這樣,您認為該行業正在採取什麼措施?(聽不清楚)
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
Hey Ravi. I think the answer is, we know what historical patterns have looked like as far as seasonality. I think the only question is, do we think economic sentiment, customer sentiment will take a step back, and I don't see any indication that that's going to be coming. Again, we do find the close in nature of this to be a little bit different, which is why we're a little bit apprehensive, but I don't think we're looking at this like waiting for a shoe to drop.
嘿,拉維。我認為答案是,我們知道季節性的歷史模式是什麼樣的。我認為唯一的問題是,我們是否認為經濟情緒、客戶情緒會退步,而我沒有看到任何跡象表明這種情況會發生。再說一次,我們確實發現這種情況的性質有點不同,這就是為什麼我們有點擔心,但我不認為我們會像等待鞋子掉下來一樣看待這個問題。
If you look -- we've gone back and looked at our four or five relatively big step backs in demand, whether it's world financial crisis, 9/11, dotcom bust, things like that. And they follow a relatively predictable pattern. And frankly, we had said that fourth quarter was when we thought there'd be an inflection as far as demand coming back up because that's what we've seen historically in situations like this, and we actually see it in the third quarter.
如果你看一下——我們回顧了四、五次需求相對較大的倒退,無論是世界金融危機、9/11、網路泡沫破滅還是諸如此類的事情。並且它們遵循相對可預測的模式。坦白說,我們曾說過,我們認為第四季度需求將出現回升的拐點,因為這是我們在歷史上見過的類似情況,而我們實際上在第三季度也看到了這種情況。
So from this point, I don't see any reason to be too cautious about it, but I'm probably more worried about the capacity situation than the demand situation. But obviously, we watch it very closely. We do have a good base in the books for the fourth quarter, but we have a lot of bookings to go. So I wouldn't want to get too ahead of myself on that.
因此從這一點來看,我認為沒有理由對此過於謹慎,但我可能更擔心產能情況而不是需求情況。但顯然,我們對此非常密切關注。我們確實為第四季度打下了良好的基礎,但我們還有很多預訂要做。所以我不想在這件事上想得太遠。
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Joanna Geraghty - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, if I could just add. I mean I think we were the first it this year when we saw it, and we made very, very quick steps to try to drive cost savings out of the business and reduce capacity. And so we've got a playbook so that we can try to make the business as flexible as possible when we do see step backs in demand.
是的,如果我可以補充的話。我的意思是,我認為我們是今年第一次發現這種情況,我們採取了非常非常迅速的措施,試圖節省業務成本並減少產能。因此,我們制定了一個劇本,以便當我們確實看到需求下降時,我們可以嘗試使業務盡可能靈活。
And so I think if you look at what we did in kind of Q1 and into Q2 around reducing capacity, reducing discretionary spending and other cost savings measures, I think we're always focused on how we can try to keep the business as agile as possible in an industry that is more difficult to pull some of those costs out closer in.
因此,我認為,如果你看看我們在第一季和第二季在減少產能、減少可自由支配的開支和其他成本節約措施方面所採取的措施,我認為我們始終專注於如何在一個更難以降低部分成本的行業中盡可能保持業務的靈活性。
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Ravi Shanker - Analyst
Very helpful. Thanks guys.
非常有幫助。謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.
康納·坎寧安(Conor Cunningham),Melius Research。
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Hi everyone, thank you for squeezing me in. Just on -- maybe sticking with the -- I mean I appreciate that you're not giving fourth quarter guidance because it's obviously very dynamic. But I'm just -- what I think -- I'd love to get your thoughts just on the capacity set up for 4Q in general because last year was particularly strange for the election and so on.
大家好,謝謝你們邀請我。只是——也許堅持——我的意思是,我很感激你沒有給出第四季度的指導,因為它顯然非常動態。但我只是——我的想法——我很想聽聽您對第四季度整體容量設定的看法,因為去年的選舉等情況特別奇怪。
And when I think about how the progression of last year kind of played out October and November were particularly weak and then really, really strong in December of last year post election. So can you -- I think the biggest fear that a lot of folks have right now is that there's going to be too much supply come to fall given the fact that RASM is inflecting a little bit here. So if you could just talk about the setup in terms of supply into the end of this year, just how you think it all unfolds in general? Thank you.
當我思考去年的進展時,我發現 10 月和 11 月的情況特別疲軟,而去年 12 月大選後的情況則變得非常強勁。所以你能嗎——我認為現在很多人最大的擔憂是,考慮到 RASM 在這裡發生了一些變化,供應量將過多而下降。那麼,如果您可以談談今年年底的供應情況,您認為整體情況會如何發展?謝謝。
Martin St. George - President
Martin St. George - President
All right. Thanks, Conor. And yes, obviously, this is one of our biggest concerns with calling in the fourth quarter. But I can only talk about my view of the world. I can't talk about what our competitors are going to do because I really don't know. I know what they've said, and we'll see what they actually do because those tend to have been different at some points.
好的。謝謝,康納。是的,顯然這是我們在第四季最大的擔憂之一。但我只能談論我對世界的看法。我無法談論我們的競爭對手將會做什麼,因為我真的不知道。我知道他們說了什麼,我們會看看他們實際上做了什麼,因為他們在某些方面往往會有所不同。
We're pretty consistent with what we say and what we do and things like this. We have -- right now, we do have a little bit more capacity selling in the fourth quarter, that capacity coming out relatively soon. We've given a guide for ASMs for the year and which you can calculate the fourth quarter number out of that, and that's where we're going to fly.
我們所說的、所做的、諸如此類的事情都是相當一致的。目前,我們在第四季的產能銷售確實稍微多了一些,而且這些產能很快就會釋放出來。我們給出了今年的 ASM 指南,您可以據此計算第四季度的數字,這就是我們要飛的地方。
I mean, absent some significant change in demand, we do the ASM planning based on what we see demand to be. I think we have made incredible steps in this network in the last year as far as all the changes we made tied to JetForward and then followed that up with some very aggressive sculpting of peak versus trough.
我的意思是,如果需求沒有重大變化,我們會根據所看到的需求來制定 ASM 規劃。我認為,就我們與 JetForward 相關的所有變化而言,我們去年在這個網絡上取得了令人難以置信的進步,隨後又對峰值和低谷進行了非常積極的調整。
And frankly, I go back to the thing which I am eternally grateful for is how well this company has risen to the occasion and continue to meet our cost guide while we were doing some pretty aggressive ASM pulls on the Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturdays of the world. So I think we're at the point now where we feel relatively free to do these margin-accretive activities knowing that we'll get the cost out, and we'll continue to do that.
坦白說,我永遠感激的一點是,這家公司能夠很好地應對挑戰,並在我們在世界各地的周二、週三和周六進行一些相當積極的 ASM 拉動時繼續滿足我們的成本指南。所以我認為我們現在處於這樣的階段:我們可以相對自由地進行這些增加利潤的活動,因為我們知道我們會降低成本,而且我們會繼續這樣做。
Fourth quarter is a pretty heavily trough quarter. I mean, certainly, October, half of November, half of December, it definitely trough. And we're going to be pretty aggressive as far as filling capacity during those periods. Again, this is not -- I'm not telegraphing you, you always see it out there already in what we've loaded that we pulled the troughs down pretty well. And I look forward, if we see this peak demand coming in like it is right now, I look forward to seeing that in the fourth quarter.
第四季是一個相當嚴重的低谷季度。我的意思是,十月、十一月上半月、十二月上半月一定是低潮。在這些時期,我們將非常積極地填補產能。再說一遍,這不是——我不是在給你發電報,你總是能從我們裝載的東西中看到,我們把槽拉得相當低了。我期待著,如果我們看到這種高峰需求像現在這樣到來,我期待在第四季度看到它。
But frankly, we are a small airline in this business. Our ASMs are not going to drive significant impact industry RASM like the big four are and like let's -- I think we'll have to see what they do before we can make a call on that.
但坦白說,我們在這個行業中是一家小型航空公司。我們的 ASM 不會像四大公司一樣對產業 RASM 產生重大影響,我認為我們必須先看看他們做了什麼,然後才能做出判斷。
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Okay. That's super helpful. And then just a point of clarification. Ursula, the 2-point benefit to CASM ex from the fleet changes, is that a sale -- like are you booking a gain that's going to ultimately be a contract expense? I'm just trying to understand the bridge as we move from third quarter to fourth quarter. My guess is there's just some sort of simplification benefit as well, but just any thoughts there, that would be helpful. Thank you.
好的。這非常有幫助。然後只是澄清一點。烏蘇拉,CASM ex 從機隊變化中獲得的 2 點收益是銷售嗎?您是否預訂了最終將成為合約費用的收益?我只是想了解從第三季到第四季的過渡過程。我的猜測是,這也有某種簡化的好處,但任何想法都會有所幫助。謝謝。
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Ursula Hurley - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. So here's some color on the fleet transaction. So on a full year basis, we're actually going to have a gain across all these asset sales to the tune of 1.25 points of CASM ex benefit on a full year basis, okay? And so then you back up.
是的。以下是有關船隊交易的一些詳情。因此,從全年來看,我們實際上將從所有這些資產銷售中獲得收益,全年 CASM 扣除收益將達到 1.25 點,好嗎?然後你就退後了。
And in the second quarter, we actually outperformed on the CASM ex guidance and about 0.5 point was driven by a gain on sale of these assets. So when I say assets, we got a multitude of different assets that we've been selling, right? It sees XLR two aircraft, it's the E190s. And then we've also been doing some sale leasebacks on engines as well.
而在第二季度,我們的業績實際上超出了 CASM 不計指導的水平,其中約 0.5 個百分點是由這些資產的出售收益推動的。所以當我說資產時,我們有大量不同的資產在出售,對嗎?它看到了 XLR 兩架飛機,它是 E190s。然後我們也對引擎進行了一些售後回租。
So quite frankly, those assets are being pretty well received by the market. And so we're hence booking gains above and beyond what we had anticipated. So it was 0.5 points in the second quarter, we've obviously got 2 points in the third quarter. And then on a full year basis, to round it out, at 1.25 points.
坦白說,這些資產受到了市場的熱烈歡迎。因此,我們獲得的收益超出了我們的預期。所以第二節我們只得到 0.5 分,而第三節我們顯然得到了 2 分。然後以全年為基礎,四捨五入為 1.25 分。
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Awesome, thank you very much.
太棒了,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
And ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束,感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。