J B Hunt Transport Services Inc (JBHT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to today's J.B. Hunt's Fourth Quarter '22 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Elliot, and I will be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to hand over to Brad Delco, Senior Vice President of Finance. The floor is yours. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎來到今天的 J.B. Hunt 的第四季度 22 財年電話會議。我叫 Elliot，今天我將負責協調您的來電。 （操作員說明）我現在想交給財務高級副總裁 Brad Delco。地板是你的。請繼續。

Good morning. Before I introduce the speakers, I would like to take some time to provide some disclosures regarding forward-looking statements. This call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as expects, anticipates, intends, estimates or similar expressions are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements are based on J.B. Hunt's current plans and expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause future activities and results to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. For more information regarding risk factors, please refer to J.B. Hunt's annual report on Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

早上好。在我介紹演講者之前，我想花一些時間提供一些有關前瞻性陳述的披露。本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。預期、預計、打算、估計或類似表達等詞語旨在識別這些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於 J.B. Hunt 當前的計劃和預期，並涉及可能導致未來活動和結果與前瞻性陳述中規定的活動和結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。有關風險因素的更多信息，請參閱 J.B. Hunt 的 10-K 表格年度報告以及提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他報告和文件。

Now I'd like to introduce the speakers on today's call. This morning, I'm joined by our CEO, John Roberts; our President, Shelley Simpson; our CFO, John Kuhlow; Nick Hobbs, our COO and President of Contract Services; Darren Field, President of Intermodal; and Brad Hicks, Executive Vice President of People and President of Highway Services.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的發言人。今天早上，我們的首席執行官約翰·羅伯茨 (John Roberts) 加入了我的行列；我們的總裁 Shelley Simpson；我們的首席財務官 John Kuhlow； Nick Hobbs，我們的首席運營官兼合同服務總裁；多式聯運總裁 Darren Field；人事執行副總裁兼公路服務總裁布拉德·希克斯 (Brad Hicks)。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call to our CEO, Mr. John Roberts, for some opening comments. John?

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官約翰·羅伯茨先生，請他發表一些開場白。約翰？

Thank you, Brad, and good morning. My comments will be brief today, as we have members of our leadership team here to cover specific areas of our business with more detail.

謝謝你，布拉德，早上好。今天我的評論將很簡短，因為我們的領導團隊成員在這裡更詳細地介紹了我們業務的特定領域。

As we reflect on the fourth quarter and the full year of 2022, we have seen and experienced a cyclical shift in market dynamics that will present both challenges and opportunities as we navigate through the upcoming year. That said, we remain encouraged by trends from our rail providers that present opportunities for faster transit times and in turn, greater service quality and value for our customers.

當我們回顧第四季度和 2022 年全年時，我們已經看到並經歷了市場動態的周期性轉變，這將在我們度過即將到來的一年時帶來挑戰和機遇。儘管如此，我們仍然對鐵路供應商的趨勢感到鼓舞，這些趨勢為縮短運輸時間提供了機會，進而為我們的客戶提供更高的服務質量和價值。

We also see some loosening in the labor market and some modest improvements in equipment availability. Conversely, demand for transportation service in the fourth quarter was seasonally weak as customers manage through levels of elevated inventories.

我們還看到勞動力市場有所放鬆，設備可用性略有改善。相反，由於客戶應對高庫存水平，第四季度對運輸服務的需求季節性疲軟。

As we've discussed in the past, we have confidence in the collective and complementary nature of our distinct businesses that are built to be resilient and durable through market cycles. I have a tremendous amount of confidence in our people, led by the 14 officers of our company that have a combined 340 years of experience here at J.B. Hunt.

正如我們過去所討論的那樣，我們對我們不同業務的集體和互補性質充滿信心，這些業務在市場週期中具有彈性和持久性。我對我們公司的 14 名管理人員領導的員工充滿信心，他們在 J.B. Hunt 總共擁有 340 年的工作經驗。

In closing, our team will remain disciplined and focused on charting our course to compound returns on the capital we've deployed to support our long-term growth for the benefit of our stakeholders.

最後，我們的團隊將保持紀律並專注於規劃我們的路線，以復合回報我們已部署的資本，以支持我們的長期增長，造福於我們的利益相關者。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to our President, Shelley Simpson. Shelley?

現在我想把電話轉給我們的總裁雪萊·辛普森。雪萊？

Thank you, John, and good morning. My comments today will mirror many of the things I shared last quarter, and we'll focus on our priorities for 2023 and beyond.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。我今天的評論將反映我上個季度分享的許多事情，我們將專注於 2023 年及以後的優先事項。

If you recall, we discussed 3 priorities as an organization. First, to remain committed through disciplined, long-term investments in our people, technology and capacity. Second, to deliver exceptional value to our customers across our entire organization. And third, to deliver long-term compounding returns for our shareholders.

如果您還記得的話，我們作為一個組織討論了 3 個優先事項。首先，通過對我們的人員、技術和能力進行有紀律的長期投資來保持承諾。其次，為我們整個組織的客戶提供卓越的價值。第三，為我們的股東帶來長期復合回報。

As we have discussed the last 2 quarters, and as John mentioned, we've seen a shift in our market dynamics, but our focus as an organization has not changed. We continue to manage our business to put us in the best position for long-term growth. We believe, first and foremost, that it starts with our people, who are responsible for delivering exceptional value and service to our customers, who in turn trust us to meet their growing transportation needs.

正如我們在過去兩個季度所討論的那樣，正如約翰所提到的，我們已經看到市場動態發生了變化，但我們作為一個組織的關注點並沒有改變。我們繼續管理我們的業務，使我們處於長期增長的最佳位置。我們相信，這首先要從我們的員工開始，他們負責為我們的客戶提供卓越的價值和服務，而客戶又相信我們能夠滿足他們不斷增長的運輸需求。

We believe our suite of services across the J.B. Hunt scroll provides customers exceptional value from a company they have learned to trust over the many years and cycles. Our challenge for 2023 is to deliver exceptional value for and on behalf of customers in this market.

我們相信，我們在 J.B. Hunt scroll 中的服務套件為客戶提供了一家他們在多年和周期中學會信任的公司的非凡價值。我們 2023 年的挑戰是為這個市場的客戶並代表客戶提供卓越的價值。

In the past, we talked about what customers value from their trusted transportation providers, which is cost, service and capacity. During the pandemic, customers value capacity most, with less weight on cost and service. We see the shift occurring now where customers are putting more value on cost or how to save the money and on service quality as capacity is less difficult to source.

過去，我們談到了客戶從他們信任的運輸供應商那裡得到的價值，即成本、服務和運力。在大流行期間，客戶最看重容量，對成本和服務的重視程度較低。我們看到現在正在發生轉變，客戶更加重視成本或如何省錢以及服務質量，因為容量更難獲得。

We believe our suite of services can and will present our customers opportunities to save money with our industry-leading Intermodal franchise, highly engineered dedicated capacity, a scaled asset-light highway services offering, and one of the largest Final Mile Services in North America.

我們相信，我們的服務套件能夠並且將會通過我們行業領先的多式聯運特許經營權、高度設計的專用能力、規模化的輕資產高速公路服務產品以及北美最大的最後一英里服務之一，為我們的客戶提供節省資金的機會。

In closing, I want to say that we're approaching 2023 with some caution around recent demand trends, but remain highly confident in our ability to thrive in any environment. We will focus on controlling what we can control, managing our business with a focus on long-term growth while remaining nimble. We will compete in the market to earn, reinforce and gain our customers' trust and their freight.

最後，我想說的是，我們在接近 2023 年時對最近的需求趨勢持謹慎態度，但對我們在任何環境中蓬勃發展的能力仍然充滿信心。我們將專注於控制我們可以控制的東西，管理我們的業務，著眼於長期增長，同時保持靈活。我們將在市場競爭中贏得、加強和獲得客戶的信任和他們的運費。

We are excited about the many ways and opportunities we have to deliver value to our customers, which we believe will reveal itself over the course of 2023 and well into our future.

我們為向客戶提供價值的多種方式和機會感到興奮，我們相信這將在 2023 年乃至我們的未來展現出來。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our CFO, John Kuhlow. John?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給我們的首席財務官 John Kuhlow。約翰？

Thank you, Shelley, and good morning, everyone. My comments today will cover our recent performance in the quarter and for the fiscal year 2022. I will also provide you a preliminary view on our capital plan for 2023.

謝謝你，雪萊，大家早上好。我今天的評論將涵蓋我們在本季度和 2022 財年的近期表現。我還將向您提供我們 2023 年資本計劃的初步看法。

Overall, results for the quarter were mixed, as freight volumes were pressured by unseasonably soft demand as compared to prior quarters of the year. That said, operating results were fairly resilient in spite of an unusual item that I'll touch on later. On a consolidated basis, revenue for the quarter [grew] 4% year-over-year, but operating income declined 13% and GAAP earnings per share declined 16%.

總體而言，本季度的結果喜憂參半，因為與去年前幾個季度相比，貨運量受到反常疲軟的需求的壓力。也就是說，儘管我稍後會談到一個不尋常的項目，但經營結果相當有彈性。在綜合基礎上，本季度收入同比增長 4%，但營業收入下降 13%，GAAP 每股收益下降 16%。

We incurred a rather large income statement item in the quarter for approximately $64 million or $0.46 per diluted share for an incremental pretax increase in casualty claim expense. This charge is similar to a charge we incurred in the second quarter of this year, as certain claims from prior year incidents continue to settle at much larger amounts than what we have historically experienced.

我們在本季度產生了一個相當大的損益表項目，約為 6400 萬美元或攤薄後每股 0.46 美元，用於增加傷亡索賠費用的稅前增量。這筆費用類似於我們在今年第二季度發生的費用，因為前一年事件的某些索賠繼續以比我們以往經歷的大得多的金額結算。

For the full fiscal year 2022 on a consolidated GAAP basis, revenue grew 22%, operating income grew 27% and earnings per share grew 29% versus 2021. Based on the solid performance for the year, we voluntarily paid out an $8.8 million appreciation bonus in the fourth quarter to our frontline employees in recognition of their contribution to a fantastic and record year for our company.

與 2021 年相比，2022 年整個財年按照綜合公認會計原則計算，收入增長 22%，營業收入增長 27%，每股收益增長 29%。基於這一年的穩健表現，我們自願支付了 880 萬美元的升值獎金在第四季度向我們的一線員工表彰他們為我們公司創造輝煌和創紀錄的一年所做的貢獻。

Of note, we paid a similar appreciation bonus a year ago. So the year-over-year impact was not significant, but worth calling out when looking at sequential performance.

值得注意的是，我們在一年前支付了類似的升值獎金。因此，同比影響並不顯著，但在查看連續表現時值得一提。

We continue to focus on and maintain a strong balance sheet, providing us with ample liquidity to deploy capital to drive long-term value for our shareholders. Our capital plan for 2023 contemplates between $1.5 billion and $2 billion of capital for business needs. This includes elevated levels of replacement demand as a result of equipment challenges experienced over the last 2 years, growth CapEx to support investments primarily in JBI and DCS and investments in real estate.

我們繼續關注並保持強勁的資產負債表，為我們提供充足的流動性來部署資本，為股東創造長期價值。我們 2023 年的資本計劃考慮了 15 億至 20 億美元的資本以滿足業務需求。這包括由於過去 2 年中遇到的設備挑戰而導致的更換需求水平上升、資本支出增長以支持主要在 JBI 和 DCS 方面的投資以及對房地產的投資。

Importantly to note, a large portion of our growth CapEx is success-driven based on our ability to secure long-term dedicated contracts. This growth component and the timing uncertainty is the reason for this range.

需要注意的重要一點是，我們的資本支出增長的很大一部分是基於我們獲得長期專用合同的能力的成功驅動。這種增長成分和時間不確定性是這個範圍的原因。

Our capital allocation plan for 2023 also contemplates supporting our dividend consistent with our long-term practice as well as taking advantage of opportunities in the market to repurchase shares. We will continue to monitor and manage our leverage target to around 1x EBITDA, but are comfortable going above this level if investment opportunities present themselves.

我們的 2023 年資本配置計劃還考慮按照我們的長期做法支持我們的股息，並利用市場機會回購股票。我們將繼續監控和管理我們的槓桿目標，使其達到 1 倍 EBITDA 左右，但如果投資機會出現，我們很樂意超過這一水平。

This concludes my remarks, and I will now turn it over to Nick.

我的發言到此結束，現在我將把它交給尼克。

Thank you, John, and good morning. I'll review the performance of our Dedicated and Final Mile segments and update you on other areas of focus across our operations.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。我將回顧我們的專用和最後一英里部分的表現，並向您介紹我們運營中其他重點領域的最新情況。

I'll start with Dedicated. Demand for our professional outsourced private fleet solutions remained strong as we sold approximately 330 trucks in the fourth quarter, which was greater than the trucks sold in the third quarter. This brought our full year truck sales number to just over 2,000 trucks, which compares to our stated target range of 1,000 to 1,200 per year. Our backlog also remains strong with more opportunities in the pipeline today versus the same time a year ago, but we have seen some moderation in the breadth of the backlog.

我將從 Dedicated 開始。對我們專業外包私人車隊解決方案的需求依然強勁，因為我們在第四季度售出了約 330 輛卡車，高於第三季度的銷量。這使我們的全年卡車銷量達到 2,000 多輛，而我們規定的目標範圍是每年 1,000 到 1,200 輛。我們的積壓工作也仍然很強勁，與一年前同期相比，今天有更多機會在籌備中，但我們看到積壓工作的範圍有所緩和。

Our net truck adds in the quarter declined 187 units as compared to the third quarter, largely as a result of us making progress on our equipment trades as new equipment availability improved, but also because some of our downsizing of fleets to match our customers' business levels.

與第三季度相比，本季度我們的卡車淨增加量減少了 187 輛，這主要是由於我們在設備交易方面取得了進展，因為新設備的可用性有所提高，而且還因為我們縮減了車隊規模以適應客戶的業務水平。

As we've discussed before through our CVD process, our customer value delivery, we optimize and reoptimize our fleets to present value savings opportunities for our customers. This ultimately supports our 98% retention rate of our customers as well as supports future growth opportunities with these same customers.

正如我們之前通過我們的 CVD 流程討論的那樣，我們的客戶價值交付，我們優化和重新優化我們的車隊，為我們的客戶提供價值節約機會。這最終支持了我們 98% 的客戶保留率，並支持了與這些相同客戶的未來增長機會。

Going forward, we will remain confident in our ability to demonstrate the strength and resiliency of this business as we deliver superior value for our customers with our highly engineered outsourced solution.

展望未來，我們將繼續相信我們有能力展示該業務的實力和彈性，因為我們通過精心設計的外包解決方案為客戶提供卓越的價值。

Shifting to Final Mile. We remain focused on improving profitability in this business by working through contracts and making sure we are fairly compensated for the value we deliver. Achieving the appropriate level of profitability will support further investment needed to meet the growing needs of our customers in this secularly growing segment of the market.

轉移到最後一英里。我們仍然專注於通過合同工作來提高該業務的盈利能力，並確保我們因所提供的價值而得到公平的補償。實現適當的盈利水平將支持進一步投資，以滿足我們客戶在這個長期增長的市場領域中不斷增長的需求。

We will continue to be disciplined on our commitments and remain willing to put business at risk to achieve the appropriate levels of profitability, which could ultimately influence our top line performance in the segment. Demand for big and bulky products, including appliances, furniture and exercise equipment has moderated some, as the headlines might suggest. But we have seen strength in our fulfillment business with off-price retailers seeing lots of opportunities with discounted inventory in the channel.

我們將繼續遵守我們的承諾，並願意將業務置於風險之中以實現適當的盈利水平，這最終可能會影響我們在該領域的收入表現。正如頭條新聞所暗示的那樣，對包括家電、家具和健身器材在內的大型產品的需求有所放緩。但我們已經看到了我們的履行業務的實力，低價零售商看到了渠道中折扣庫存的大量機會。

Closing with some general comments on operations. Similar to my update last quarter, we continue to see improvements in areas around professional driver recruitment and retention, but at elevated cost. We are a touch more optimistic about equipment availability in '23, largely as a result of bringing in a third OEM into our mix, but maintenance cost remains elevated across the company.

以對運營的一些一般性評論結束。與我上個季度的更新類似，我們繼續看到專業司機招聘和保留方面的改進，但成本增加了。我們對 23 年的設備可用性更加樂觀，這主要是因為將第三家 OEM 納入我們的組合，但整個公司的維護成本仍然很高。

We remain focused on our safety performance, but are doubling down on strategic initiatives across the company to improve performance in this area given the elevated cost the industry is experiencing.

我們仍然專注於我們的安全績效，但考慮到行業正在經歷的成本上升，我們正在加倍實施整個公司的戰略計劃以提高該領域的績效。

That concludes my remarks, so I'll turn it over to Darren.

我的發言到此結束，所以我將把它交給 Darren。

Thank you, Nick, and hello to everyone on the call. I'll review the performance of our Intermodal business in the quarter and talk about our opportunity to deliver exceptional value and capacity to our customers in 2023 and beyond.

謝謝你，尼克，向通話中的每個人問好。我將回顧我們本季度多式聯運業務的表現，並討論我們在 2023 年及以後為客戶提供卓越價值和能力的機會。

I'll start by reviewing the performance in the quarter. Demand for Intermodal capacity was seasonally weaker than normal, as peak season activity leading up to the holidays was absent this year. Volumes for the quarter declined 1% year-over-year and by month were up 4% in October, down 3% in November and down 5% in December.

我將從回顧本季度的表現開始。由於今年沒有假期前的旺季活動，對多式聯運運力的需求季節性低於正常水平。本季度銷量同比下降 1%，10 月份銷量增長 4%，11 月份銷量下降 3%，12 月份銷量下降 5%。

We experienced improvements in rail velocity in the quarter and also saw some modest improvements in customer retention of equipment on a sequential basis. That said, we still believe we can see further progress on both fronts which will further improve velocity and decrease transit times in our system.

我們在本季度經歷了鐵路速度的提高，並且在連續的基礎上也看到了設備客戶保留方面的一些適度改善。也就是說，我們仍然相信我們可以在這兩個方面看到進一步的進展，這將進一步提高我們系統的速度並減少運輸時間。

We believe that current trends around velocity present opportunities for us to sell a higher valued and reliable service product in the market. As we think about 2023, we see a lot of opportunities to deliver value to our customers with our industry-leading Intermodal service product.

我們相信，當前圍繞速度的趨勢為我們提供了在市場上銷售價值更高、更可靠的服務產品的機會。展望 2023 年，我們看到了很多機會，可以通過我們行業領先的多式聯運服務產品為客戶創造價值。

As Shelley discussed, customers have shifted their focus more on cost and service versus capacity. We believe our Intermodal service product presents our customers with opportunities to save money by converting highway freight back to Intermodal, which reduces their cost and is further supported by fuel cost and carbon emission savings.

正如 Shelley 所討論的那樣，客戶已經將注意力更多地轉移到成本和服務上，而不是容量上。我們相信，我們的多式聯運服務產品為我們的客戶提供了通過將公路貨運轉回多式聯運來節省資金的機會，這降低了他們的成本，並進一步得到燃料成本和碳排放節省的支持。

While import volumes have been weak, we still see opportunities to gain customers' wallet share by converting highway freight and transloading more international freight into our domestic containers. Additionally, we are in the best position to commit more Intermodal capacity to our customers as we progress through the current bid season based on solid improvement in rail service levels and our investment to expand our capacity.

儘管進口量一直疲軟，但我們仍然看到了通過轉換公路貨運並將更多國際貨運轉運到我們的國內集裝箱來贏得客戶錢包份額的機會。此外，基於鐵路服務水平的穩固提高和我們為擴大運力而進行的投資，隨著我們在當前投標季節取得進展，我們處於向客戶承諾更多多式聯運運力的最佳位置。

Finally, because I anticipate this being a question, I thought I'd address it here. As you are aware, we have more capacity and better alignment with our Western rail provider, BNSF, and we have both committed to the long-term growth of our collective Intermodal service offering.

最後，因為我預計這是一個問題，所以我想我會在這裡解決它。如您所知，我們擁有更大的運力，並與我們的西方鐵路供應商 BNSF 更好地保持一致，並且我們都致力於長期發展我們的集體聯運服務產品。

We will compete in the market on the basis of cost, capacity and service, and we feel confident in our ability to earn our customers' business and grow our wallet share. We are not approaching 2023 with a volume versus price mentality, but how do we set up our business to drive the greatest shareholder value over the long term. This was my eloquent way of saying we historically have not given any guidance on price, volume or margins, and we will continue that streak, but also the streak of managing our business to compounding our growth and returns over the long term.

我們將在成本、容量和服務的基礎上參與市場競爭，我們對贏得客戶業務和擴大錢包份額的能力充滿信心。我們並不是以量價比的心態來迎接 2023 年，而是我們如何建立我們的業務以在長期內推動最大的股東價值。這是我雄辯的說法，我們歷來沒有就價格、數量或利潤率給出任何指導，我們將繼續保持這種趨勢，但也會繼續管理我們的業務以實現長期增長和回報的增長。

That concludes my prepared remarks, so I'll turn it over to Brad Hicks.

我準備好的發言到此結束，所以我將把它交給 Brad Hicks。

Thank you, Darren, and good morning, everyone. I'll review the performance of our Integrated Capacity Solutions and Truckload segments, what we collectively call Highway Services. I'll also provide an update on J.B. Hunt 360 and how we continue to see the platform bringing together our scroll, but specifically Highway Solutions to drive value for, and on behalf of our customers, whether with, or without a drop trailer solution.

謝謝你，達倫，大家早上好。我將回顧我們的綜合容量解決方案和卡車負載部分的性能，我們統稱為公路服務。我還將提供有關 J.B. Hunt 360 的更新，以及我們如何繼續看到該平台將我們的捲軸整合在一起，但特別是高速公路解決方案，無論是否有拖車解決方案，都可以為我們的客戶並代表我們的客戶創造價值。

I'll start off with ICS. ICS top line revenue was down 33%, comprised of a 27% decline in volume and a 9% decline in revenue per load. Our truckload volume in the quarter was down 21%. Transactional or spot truckload volume was down year-over-year, but contractual volume was up slightly year-over-year.

我將從 ICS 開始。 ICS 收入下降了 33%，其中銷量下降了 27%，每負載收入下降了 9%。本季度我們的卡車載貨量下降了 21%。交易量或現貨卡車裝載量同比下降，但合同量同比略有上升。

We experienced additional pressure on our transactional and contractual business in the fourth quarter as demand and volume were unusually soft during what is normally considered peak season. Maybe said differently, there was no peak, and demand was actually weaker in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, which is atypical.

由於在通常被認為是旺季期間需求和交易量異常疲軟，我們在第四季度的交易和合同業務承受了額外的壓力。也許換句話說，沒有高峰，第四季度的需求實際上比第三季度弱，這是非典型的。

As we've discussed in the past, our goal remains to leverage our platform and make investments that will allow us to scale our business by outpacing the market. Despite the poor performance on our top line, which did influence our profitability, we do remain in our people and our platform, J.B. Hunt 360 to deliver exceptional value for our customers and our shareholders over the long term.

正如我們過去所討論的那樣，我們的目標仍然是利用我們的平台並進行投資，使我們能夠通過超越市場來擴展我們的業務。儘管我們的收入表現不佳，這確實影響了我們的盈利能力，但我們確實保留了我們的員工和我們的平台 J.B. Hunt 360，以長期為我們的客戶和股東提供卓越的價值。

Shifting to truckload. While the freight environment was challenging in the quarter, we continue to see evidence of demand for drop trailing capacity holding up better relative to the overall market, which we believe was demonstrated in the quarter. Volume in JBT increased 6% versus the prior year quarter. We believe customers continue to see value in the blending of their live and drop trailer capacity needs that we can provide by leveraging our platform powered by J.B. Hunt 360.

轉向卡車裝載。儘管本季度的貨運環境充滿挑戰，但我們繼續看到有證據表明，相對於整體市場而言，拖尾運力的需求保持得更好，我們認為這一點在本季度得到了證明。 JBT 的銷量與去年同期相比增長了 6%。我們相信，客戶將繼續看到我們可以通過利用由 J.B. Hunt 360 提供支持的平台提供的混合他們的實時和拖車容量需求的價值。

As we move into 2023, we will remain focused on leveraging our investments in our people, technology and capacity to further scale the business. We see a long runway of opportunity for future growth in 360box, supported by disciplined investments, solid execution and earning an appropriate return on our capital.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們將繼續專注於利用我們在人員、技術和能力方面的投資來進一步擴大業務規模。我們看到了 360box 未來增長的長期機會，這得益於有紀律的投資、穩健的執行和獲得適當的資本回報。

Wrapping up on J.B. Hunt 360, I wanted to take the last minute here to make sure the investment community understands that our digital freight marketplace is a tool that drives value across our entire enterprise. For example, it allows us to source third-party Intermodal dray capacity.

總結 J.B. Hunt 360，我想在最後一分鐘確保投資界了解我們的數字貨運市場是推動整個企業價值的工具。例如，它允許我們採購第三方聯運貨運能力。

It provides us backhaul freight opportunities in DCS and allows us to prop up a start-up fleet as we hire drivers or source equipment. I believe more obvious, you see the results in ICS and JBT as we are able to run non-asset or an asset-light business, leveraging our data and systems to provide almost unlimited capacity for and on behalf of our customers.

它為我們提供了 DCS 中的回程貨運機會，並允許我們在僱用司機或採購設備時支持初創車隊。我相信更明顯的是，您會在 ICS 和 JBT 中看到結果，因為我們能夠經營非資產或輕資產業務，利用我們的數據和系統為我們的客戶並代表我們的客戶提供幾乎無限的容量。

ICS and JBT collectively is our highway solution for our customers, representing the largest segment of the North American transportation market. Whether the customer needs drop trailers that historically could only be provided by large asset truckload carriers or a spot load in a live load, live unload network, we are one solution on one system backed by the J.B. Hunt brand.

ICS 和 JBT 共同構成了我們為客戶提供的高速公路解決方案，代表了北美運輸市場的最大部分。無論客戶需要以往只能由大型資產卡車承運商提供的拖車，還是需要活載、活卸網絡中的現場裝載，我們都是由 J.B. Hunt 品牌支持的一個系統上的一個解決方案。

That concludes my comments, so I'll turn it over to Brad Delco to give instructions before the operator opens the call for Q&A.

我的評論到此結束，所以在接線員打開問答電話之前，我將把它交給 Brad Delco 給出指示。

Thanks, Brad. And operator, in the interest of the number of people we have in queue, can we do just 1 question per caller? Thanks. Thanks, Elliot.

謝謝，布拉德。接線員，考慮到我們排隊的人數，我們可以只向每個來電者提問 1 個問題嗎？謝謝。謝謝，埃利奧特。

Of course. (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Chris Wetherbee from Citi.

當然。 （操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe a question for you, Darren. I know you don't want to talk a lot about sort of the pricing volume outlook for Intermodal. But maybe I could ask the question this way. As you see here in the beginning of the year and as you noted, you have a different setup with your major rail partner in the West. I wanted to get a sense of sort of what customer receptivity has been to that increased capacity and the opportunity to potentially convert loads back onto the intermodal network?

也許有一個問題要問你，達倫。我知道您不想過多談論多式聯運的定價量前景。但也許我可以這樣問這個問題。正如你在今年年初在這裡看到的那樣，正如你所指出的，你與西方的主要鐵路合作夥伴有不同的設置。我想了解客戶對增加容量的接受程度以及將負載轉換回多式聯運網絡的機會？

I guess maybe the sort of finer point on that as you think about sort of the historical relationship of intermodal versus sort of say, macro or truckload, do you think that 2023 can be a year of relative outperformance for Intermodal, just given some of the macro stuff that we're seeing right now?

我想當你考慮多式聯運與宏觀或卡車運輸的歷史關係時，我想這可能是一個更好的觀點，你認為 2023 年可能是多式聯運相對優異的一年，只是考慮到一些我們現在看到的宏觀事物？

Sure, Chris. Appreciate the question. I think universally, our customers are positive towards reconverting highway business that should be Intermodal. I think they're appropriately cautious in saying, "Hey, J.B. Hunt and BNSF, I need you to prove it to me that you're going to get your service and velocity quality back."

當然，克里斯。感謝這個問題。我認為普遍而言，我們的客戶對重新轉換應該是多式聯運的高速公路業務持積極態度。我認為他們在說“嘿，J.B. Hunt 和 BNSF，我需要你們向我證明你們將恢復你們的服務和速度質量”時是相當謹慎的。

And I think we're aligned, like we continue to say every quarter, more than ever with BNSF on that mission. I have talked to my team at length for months now about rebuilding confidence in our customers. Our customers are looking for ways to save money, and Intermodal is a way for them to save money.

而且我認為我們與 BNSF 保持一致，就像我們每個季度繼續說的那樣，比以往任何時候都更加一致。幾個月來，我已經與我的團隊詳細討論瞭如何重建對客戶的信心。我們的客戶正在尋找省錢的方法，而多式聯運是他們省錢的一種方式。

And as velocity improves, it even helps in inventory carrying costs. And so there's a lot of opportunities for us to continue to talk about growing Intermodal.

隨著速度的提高，它甚至有助於降低庫存持有成本。因此，我們有很多機會繼續談論發展多式聯運。

And certainly, I don't know of a customer telling us, I'm not interested in converting business to Intermodal. I think across the board, our customer base is very receptive. But I do want to at least acknowledge there's a bit of a lag in that process. And I think we are busy proving to the customers that the service quality of velocity has improved and will continue to improve as the year goes on.

當然，我不知道有客戶告訴我們，我對將業務轉換為多式聯運不感興趣。我認為總體而言，我們的客戶群非常容易接受。但我確實想至少承認在這個過程中有一點滯後。而且我認為我們正忙於向客戶證明速度的服務質量已經提高並將隨著時間的推移繼續提高。

And just one point of clarification. Just the BNSF rail service, where it needs to be to make that value proposition to the customer?

只需澄清一點。只是 BNSF 鐵路服務，它需要在哪裡向客戶提出價值主張？

Yes. I would say it's early. But so far, in January, our rail service is the best it's been since the first quarter of 2020. And so that's a really positive sign. We're not quite to where we want to be fully, but there is massive improvement in the rail service today.

是的。我會說現在還早。但到目前為止，在 1 月份，我們的鐵路服務是自 2020 年第一季度以來最好的。所以這是一個非常積極的信號。我們還沒有完全達到我們想要的水平，但是今天的鐵路服務有了很大的改善。

We now turn to Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI.

我們現在轉向 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Darren, sticking with you. Obviously, you're investing on your own in your own capacity, but there's no kind of commentary on box turns, tying it into what you just said about service being the best since 1Q '20. Can you give us an update on where box turn stand today? Where do you think they'll be in the next kind of 3 to 6 months?

達倫，堅持你。顯然，您是在以自己的能力自行投資，但沒有關於轉箱的評論，將其與您剛才所說的自 20 年第一季度以來最好的服務聯繫起來。你能告訴我們今天 box turn 的最新情況嗎？您認為他們在接下來的 3 到 6 個月內會在哪裡？

And probably more importantly, outside of your own investments just from the box turns, the velocity, the productivity, fluidity alone, how much capacity do you think that adds to your network over the next 12 months?

可能更重要的是，除了您自己的投資之外，僅從盒子轉向、速度、生產力和流動性，您認為在未來 12 個月內您的網絡會增加多少容量？

Yes. So it's a topic for us daily. Our box turns in the fourth quarter were 1.44, nowhere near where we expected them to be. The realities are, we're in a bit of a transition period when velocity, customer unloading, a host of challenges created weakness in our turn ratio.

是的。所以這是我們每天的話題。我們在第四季度的箱子轉彎率為 1.44，遠不及我們預期的水平。現實情況是，我們正處於一個過渡時期，速度、客戶卸載、一系列挑戰導致我們的周轉率變弱。

As we come out of that scenario and get back into a more normalized velocity process, gain productivity with our dray fleet, look for productivity in the container fleet, we have lots and lots of capacity to grow into. That's an opportunity for us.

當我們走出那個場景，回到一個更加規範化的速度過程中，通過我們的干貨船隊提高生產力，在集裝箱船隊中尋找生產力，我們有很多很多的能力可以發展。這對我們來說是一個機會。

I mean in the fourth quarter and the second half of the year, we're extremely confident in our ability to serve our customers' needs, as there will be a return to a peak season shipping. I don't have a number to give you in terms of how many containers come out of the improvement in velocity.

我的意思是，在第四季度和下半年，我們對滿足客戶需求的能力非常有信心，因為運輸旺季將回歸。我沒有一個數字可以告訴你有多少容器是由於速度的提高而產生的。

What I would say is we're probably on a long march, and I'm not sure we can accomplish it in 2023, but we anticipate getting back to a turn ratio in the 1.75 to 1.8 in the future. And that will be a very direct effort on our part, and we'll be cautious with our container purchases, but we have to keep that supply chain open and moving, and we need to be onboarding equipment, at least some, but we'll be looking to grow our volumes as fast as we can, for sure.

我想說的是，我們可能正在進行長征，我不確定我們能否在 2023 年完成，但我們預計未來會回到 1.75 至 1.8 的匝數比。這將是我們的一個非常直接的努力，我們將對我們的集裝箱採購持謹慎態度，但我們必須保持供應鏈的開放和移動，我們需要入職設備，至少是一些，但我們'當然，我們會盡可能快地增加我們的銷量。

We now turn to Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

我們現在求助於 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So stick with Intermodal. So you guys have more containers parked in 4Q than I think we've ever seen in Q4. And it sounds like you're expecting box turns to improve. So I guess, why aren't you dialing back on some of the container adds for this year?

所以堅持多式聯運。所以你們在第四季度停放的集裝箱比我認為我們在第四季度看到的還要多。聽起來您希望箱子轉向有所改善。所以我想，你為什麼不撥回今年的一些容器添加？

And then, Darren, I know you don't want to give specific guidance, but maybe just directionally, do you think you're going to grow Intermodal volume this year? And how do you think about overall revenue segment earnings, do you think positive negative just directionally, any thoughts?

然後，達倫，我知道你不想給出具體的指導，但也許只是方向性的，你認為你今年會增加多式聯運量嗎？你如何看待整體收入部門的收益，你認為正面負面只是方向性的，有什麼想法嗎？

Well, I appreciate your attempt, Scott, to get me to give guidance. We're not going to be able to do that. Certainly, I do expect Intermodal to grow this year on all fronts, on revenue, on earnings, certainly on volume.

好吧，斯科特，感謝你讓我提供指導的嘗試。我們將無法做到這一點。當然，我確實預計 Intermodal 今年會在所有方面、收入、收益，當然還有數量上實現增長。

I think that as we come out of the first quarter, there is a lag. You can see it in the import economy. I mean there's a significant lag in demand at the moment, most of our customers, if not all, are optimistic about summer, and the rest of the year there's an inventory correction going on.

我認為當我們從第一季度出來時，會出現滯後。你可以在進口經濟中看到它。我的意思是目前需求明顯滯後，我們的大多數客戶（如果不是全部）都對夏季持樂觀態度，而今年餘下時間庫存調整正在進行中。

We have real opportunities to grow our Intermodal business, and we're working on that every day. Certainly, we're not going to ignore the fact that right now, the market is soft in Q1 and inventory is trying to correct.

我們有真正的機會來發展我們的多式聯運業務，我們每天都在為此努力。當然，我們不會忽視這樣一個事實，即目前第一季度市場疲軟，庫存正試圖糾正。

As far as boxes, we really haven't made any announcement about how much equipment we're onboarding this year. What I would say is it's more than 0, but certainly, we're going to meter back a little bit over where we have been as velocity has really, really brought a lot of capacity to our market.

至於盒子，我們真的還沒有宣布我們今年要上架多少設備。我要說的是它超過 0，但當然，我們會稍微回溯一下我們的速度，因為速度確實為我們的市場帶來了很多容量。

We now turn to Justin Long from Stephens.

我們現在轉向斯蒂芬斯的賈斯汀朗。

I'll shift to a question on Dedicated. So Nick, maybe you could talk about how much of the headwind you saw in the fourth quarter from fleets reducing the size of their fleets? And then looking into 2023, we've got some moving pieces with new business you've won, but also cyclical pressure. How are you thinking about a reasonable target for both gross fleet additions and net fleet additions this year?

我將轉向有關 Dedicated 的問題。那麼尼克，也許你可以談談你在第四季度看到的艦隊減少艦隊規模的逆風有多大？然後展望 2023 年，我們有一些關於您贏得的新業務的動人文章，但也有周期性壓力。您如何考慮今年總機隊增加量和淨機隊增加量的合理目標？

Yes. So as we look back at Q4, we felt some pressure, I would say, modest, not a lot, but there were some accounts that were given early signals of reduction, and we did reduce just a handful of fleets at this point.

是的。因此，當我們回顧第四季度時，我們感到了一些壓力，我想說，壓力不大，但有些賬戶已經收到了減少的早期信號，此時我們確實只減少了少數車隊。

The primary thing I would say that we addressed was really we've been carrying a lot of older trucks, and so we're starting to pick up a few more new trucks and making some headway in reducing that. So that was the primary, but there was some fleet reduction. And then we're going to stick with our guidance on what we'd said on sales in the 800 to 1,000 range.

我要說的是，我們解決的主要問題是我們一直在運載很多舊卡車，因此我們開始購買更多的新卡車，並在減少這種情況方面取得了一些進展。所以那是主要的，但機隊有所減少。然後我們將堅持我們對 800 到 1,000 範圍內銷售額的指導。

Our pipeline is still full. We feel good. We are experiencing, what I would call, just some hesitation from deals that are in there that the customer is trying to figure out what's going to happen in the first part of the year, but we are still signing deals. So we, yes, 1,000 to 1,200 correction, and not 800 to 1,000. So 1,000 to 1,200 that we would sell.

我們的管道仍然滿載。我們感覺很好。我們正在經歷，我稱之為，只是一些交易的猶豫，客戶正試圖弄清楚今年上半年會發生什麼，但我們仍在簽署交易。所以我們，是的，1,000 到 1,200 的修正，而不是 800 到 1,000。所以我們會賣 1,000 到 1,200。

Also, we have 500 trucks already sold that we will be adding as we get the equipment available. So we have some momentum on that side.

此外，我們已經售出 500 輛卡車，我們將在設備可用時添加這些卡車。所以我們在這方面有一些勢頭。

Our next question comes from Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Darren, I just wanted to ask about how you think costs can trend in the Intermodal business as yields continue to moderate? I'm just trying to understand if you think there's enough cost and efficiency opportunity to offset, more pressure on the revenue side from yield?

達倫，我只是想問一下，隨著收益率繼續下降，您認為多式聯運業務的成本趨勢如何？我只是想了解您是否認為有足夠的成本和效率機會來抵消收益方面的更多壓力？

And then John Kuhlow, just wanted to ask about $8.8 million bonus payment, that's great to see for the whole team. Just wondering if you can talk about, is it pro rata across the segments or is it a, one segment that's taking the lion's share of that?

然後是 John Kuhlow，他只是想問一下 880 萬美元的獎金，這對整個團隊來說真是太好了。只是想知道你是否可以談談，它是按比例跨部門還是一個部門佔據了最大份額？

So I'll start, Amit. Appreciate the question. I think that we have long said that there's real cost to exit our system in the form of velocity and improvements in driver productivity. Box turns gets most of the focus because it's an easy metric to see and calculate.

所以我要開始了，阿米特。感謝這個問題。我認為我們早就說過，以速度和司機生產力的提高的形式退出我們的系統是有實際成本的。 Box turns 最受關注，因為它是一個易於查看和計算的指標。

Our driver productivity is a significant element inside our cost that can also improve as we grow our volumes and get more normalized into our system. Our customers are beginning to unload our equipment faster. The railroads are operating faster, all of which creates some cost takeout.

我們的司機生產力是我們成本中的一個重要因素，隨著我們增加我們的數量並在我們的系統中變得更加規範化，它也可以提高。我們的客戶開始更快地卸載我們的設備。鐵路運營速度更快，所有這些都產生了一些成本支出。

So as we grow our business, we really feel strongly that we can kind of overcome any kind of pricing pressure. We're not looking for any kind of change to our long-term margin guidance and feel confident that we can deliver in that area in 2023 for sure. We said, we expected to grow volume, expect to grow revenue, and expect to grow earnings in '23. Kuhlow?

因此，隨著我們業務的發展，我們真的強烈地感到我們可以克服任何形式的定價壓力。我們不希望對我們的長期利潤率指導進行任何形式的改變，並且有信心我們可以在 2023 年實現這一目標。我們說過，我們預計會在 23 年增加銷量，增加收入，並增加收益。庫洛？

Amit, that feels like a second question, but it's a good topic, so we'll grant it to you. On the appreciation bonus, that was for all frontline employees that's predominantly drivers, but also includes technicians and then some of our office.

阿米特，這感覺像是第二個問題，但這是一個很好的話題，所以我們會把它交給你。關於讚賞獎金，那是給所有一線員工的，主要是司機，但也包括技術人員，然後是我們辦公室的一些人。

So it's primarily in the JBI, and the Dedicated segments. That's where we have most of our drivers. I'll give you of the $8.8 million, $3 million was in Intermodal and Dedicated was another $5 million. And the rest is spread throughout the other segments.

所以它主要在 JBI 和專用部分。那是我們大多數司機的地方。我會給你 880 萬美元，其中 300 萬美元用於多式聯運，Dedicated 是另外 500 萬美元。其餘的分佈在其他部分。

We now turn to Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

我們現在求助於摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Maybe an ICS question, I think you guys were very clear in the 3Q to 4Q walk not playing out as expected because of the lack of peak season. How do we think about that going into '23? What's the 4Q to 1Q walk is looking like? Is that demand weakness continuing or do you not see as much of a step down sequentially into 1Q?

也許是一個 ICS 問題，我認為你們在第 3 季度到第 4 季度的步行中非常清楚，由於缺少旺季，沒有按預期進行。我們如何考慮進入 23 年？ 4Q 到 1Q 的步行是什麼樣子的？這種需求疲軟是否會持續，或者您是否認為進入 1Q 時沒有出現太大的下降？

Thank you for the question. I started to talk about that pivot at the end of Q3, and we certainly saw that play out. And in my prepared comments, I used the word atypical. We certainly saw that throughout the fourth quarter, a continued weakening from October into December. As we sit here right now, just through 15, 16 days in January. I would say, we're consistent with what we saw in December.

感謝你的提問。我在第三季度末開始談論這個支點，我們當然看到了這一點。在我準備好的評論中，我使用了非典型這個詞。我們當然看到，在整個第四季度，從 10 月到 12 月持續走弱。正如我們現在坐在這裡，一月份剛過 15、16 天。我會說，我們與 12 月份的情況一致。

However, as Darren mentioned, we do expect sometime maybe second quarter going into third quarter with inventory resets, we would fully expect to see the freight market rebound. But I do feel like this is the area of our company that will most feel the volatility.

然而，正如 Darren 所提到的，我們確實預計某個時候可能是第二季度進入第三季度，隨著庫存重置，我們完全可以期待看到貨運市場反彈。但我確實覺得這是我們公司最容易感受到波動的領域。

We've long discussed and documented what happened in the spot market and that still sits about where it was. And so until we see some of that freight demand rebound, imports start flowing, I think we'll be in a comparable environment to what we saw in the fourth quarter in brokerage.

長期以來，我們一直在討論和記錄現貨市場發生的事情，並且仍然停留在原位。因此，在我們看到部分貨運需求反彈、進口開始流動之前，我認為我們將處於與第四季度經紀業務類似的環境。

Our next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So Shelley, maybe you can elaborate a little bit more on some of the caution you're seeing on the demand side. I know we've touched on it a little bit, but it seems like the general view is that you expect a tough first quarter and then some improvements sort of towards the middle part of the year.

所以雪萊，也許你可以詳細說明你在需求方面看到的一些謹慎。我知道我們已經談了一點，但似乎普遍的看法是，你預計第一季度會很艱難，然後在年中會有所改善。

So Darren, does that give you enough confidence from the demand side and also from the service side, both in the West and the East to really lean in and commit that capacity that you think your customers are going to be there and waiting for because it does seem like the timing of the recovery on the service side and demand is going to be a key factor here. So curious on your thoughts there.

所以達倫，這是否讓您從西方和東方的需求方和服務方獲得足夠的信心，真正投入並投入您認為您的客戶將在那裡等待的能力，因為它看起來服務方面的複蘇時機和需求將成為這裡的關鍵因素。對你的想法很好奇。

We did use a theme word and we have through the whole pandemic, and that was being fluid, with our customers and just helping them understand where they're at and where we're at from a transportation perspective. We also talked a lot about being cautious in the last discussion.

我們確實使用了一個主題詞，並且我們經歷了整個大流行病，並且與我們的客戶保持流暢，只是幫助他們從運輸的角度了解他們所處的位置以及我們所處的位置。我們在上次討論中也談了很多關於謹慎的問題。

And I think those were some of the demand trends we were starting to see. If you look in the fourth quarter, you saw port activity continue to decline all the way into December. And certainly, we're feeling the impact from that. As we have talked to the customers, they have shared with us that there is an inventory correction happening that you've heard both Brad and Darren talk about, and that's really, we expect to continue to occur all through the first quarter.

我認為這些是我們開始看到的一些需求趨勢。如果你看看第四季度，你會發現港口活動一直持續下降到 12 月。當然，我們正在感受到它的影響。當我們與客戶交談時，他們與我們分享了您聽到 Brad 和 Darren 都談到的庫存修正，我們預計整個第一季度都會繼續發生這種情況。

We have had good signals from our customers about Q2 starting up back to a more normalized or having a more normal environment. We're not sure at what point that is in Q2, but we do feel like the back half of the year we have confidence from what our customers are giving us and the data points that they have, what they're going to be doing from an ordering perspective, the freight recession that we see right now is largely inventory driven.

我們從客戶那裡收到了關於第二季度開始恢復到更正常化或擁有更正常環境的良好信號。我們不確定第二季度是什麼時候，但我們確實覺得今年下半年我們對客戶給我們的東西以及他們擁有的數據點以及他們將要做的事情充滿信心從訂購的角度來看，我們現在看到的運費衰退主要是由庫存驅動的。

We don't see anything else from our customers in total. And then last thing I would say, Brian, if you think about bid season for our company in the one-way part of the business. So this should be all of Intermodal and all of Highway Services. Those really occur in the back half of the year, fully loaded. So if you think about a July 1, if you will, that's really when bid season is complete, and we know the results of what's happening in bid season.

我們從我們的客戶那裡看不到任何其他東西。然後我要說的最後一件事，布賴恩，如果你在業務的單向部分考慮我們公司的投標季節。所以這應該是所有的多式聯運和所有的公路服務。那些真的發生在今年下半年，滿載而歸。因此，如果您考慮 7 月 1 日，如果您願意的話，那確實是投標季節結束的時候，我們知道投標季節發生的事情的結果。

And that's what really drives what we're going to do from a capital planning. So you heard Darren say, we're going to be fluid in that part of the process. We have flexibility so that we know how much equipment we can onboard. But I would say we feel confident in our bid season strategy, our ability to win highway share, convert it to Intermodal and then continuing to grow inside our Highway Services.

這才是真正推動我們從資本規劃中做的事情。所以你聽到 Darren 說，我們將在流程的那一部分保持流暢。我們有靈活性，所以我們知道我們可以裝載多少設備。但我要說的是，我們對我們的投標季節戰略、我們贏得公路份額的能力、將其轉換為多式聯運，然後繼續在我們的公路服務中發展充滿信心。

And you heard Nick talk about our confidence around Dedicated and what our customers are saying there. And I would add, I feel confident about what's happening in the Final Mile space as well.

您聽到 Nick 談到了我們對 Dedicated 的信心以及我們的客戶在那裡所說的話。我還要補充一點，我對 Final Mile 空間中發生的事情也充滿信心。

I just want to jump in, Brian, you asked a little bit of -- you hinted at Eastern rail providers. In both Eastern railroads, Norfolk Southern and CSX, are also performing better than they have in '22, and we're confident in their plans and continue to see really significant opportunities in that part of our network to grow Highway share conversion back to Intermodal as this year goes on.

我只想插話，布賴恩，你問了一點——你暗示了東部鐵路供應商。在東部鐵路中，Norfolk Southern 和 CSX 的表現也比 22 年要好，我們對他們的計劃充滿信心，並繼續在我們的網絡的這一部分看到真正重要的機會，將公路份額轉換回多式聯運隨著今年的繼續。

We now turn to Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

我們現在求助於瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Tom Wadewitz。

Yes. I wanted to ask you a bit about the -- just a view on supply chain. If you think that there's going to be improvement in fluidity? I mean it sounds like you're seeing that. Do you think that, that happens fairly quickly? And how does that impact the storage revenues?

是的。我想問你一些關於供應鏈的看法。如果您認為流動性會有所改善？我的意思是聽起來你看到了。你認為這發生得相當快嗎？這對存儲收入有何影響？

Is that something we should see storage revenues go down a lot in '23? Or do you think it's more kind of a gradual thing that there's a bit of stickiness in what happens with storage revenues? And I'm thinking in particular storage -- container storage revenues in Intermodal.

23 年我們應該看到存儲收入大幅下降嗎？還是您認為存儲收入會出現一些粘性，這更像是一種漸進的事情？我在考慮特別是存儲——多式聯運的集裝箱存儲收入。

Sure, I'll take that. I mean do I think that fluidity in the supply chain will get better with weaker demand and allow the system to kind of reset itself? Absolutely. We're experiencing that today.

當然，我會接受的。我的意思是，我是否認為供應鏈的流動性會隨著需求疲軟而變得更好，並允許系統進行自我重置？絕對地。我們今天正在經歷。

Our customers are better set up for their supply chains and the port infrastructure is accommodating imports today. And so system is moving more fluidly. As that relates to storage revenues, the only way to answer that is it depends. As long as our customers are unloading faster, then there will be a decline in those revenue streams, but that frees up capacity to operate more shipments on that container every month, and that's our focus today.

我們的客戶為他們的供應鏈做好了更好的準備，港口基礎設施如今可以容納進口。因此，系統運行得更加流暢。由於這與存儲收入有關，因此唯一的答案是視情況而定。只要我們的客戶卸貨速度更快，那麼這些收入流就會減少，但這會釋放出每月在該集裝箱上運營更多貨物的能力，這就是我們今天的重點。

That's why you'll continue to hear us talk about real cost can come out of our system, that can translate into savings for our customers, which just allows us to provide value faster and grow our Intermodal business.

這就是為什麼你會繼續聽到我們談論實際成本可以從我們的系統中產生，這可以轉化為我們客戶的節省，這只會讓我們更快地提供價值並發展我們的多式聯運業務。

Our next question comes from Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

I was wondering if you could give some a little more color on this casualty claim expense, sort of the nature of it? I mean is this like a onetime cleanup through the various business segments or is this -- how do we think about sort of a run rate on an ongoing basis?

我想知道您是否可以對這次傷亡索賠費用進行更多說明，了解它的性質？我的意思是，這就像是通過各個業務部門進行一次性清理，還是——我們如何考慮持續的運行率？

Yes, Jordan, this is John Kuhlow. I'll address that. We've seen, similar to others in the industry, over the last 12 to 18 months, a dramatic change in our settlement experience on our claims. All of our claims, but most importantly, our more severe claims are settling at much higher levels than we've been our historical experience, sometimes the 5x to 10x what they were 5 years ago.

是的，喬丹，這是約翰庫洛。我會解決這個問題。在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，我們已經看到，與業內其他人類似，我們在索賠方面的結算體驗發生了巨大變化。我們所有的索賠，但最重要的是，我們更嚴重的索賠正在以比我們的歷史經驗高得多的水平結算，有時是 5 年前的 5 到 10 倍。

And so our insurance coverage consists of layers, and there are certain layers in there that have caps. And when we exceed those caps, the claims expense reverts to us. And the $30 million that we recorded in the second quarter and the $64 million that recorded in the fourth quarter for a total of $94 million in the current year, represents our reserve adjustments on previously incurred claims.

因此，我們的保險範圍由多個層組成，其中某些層有上限。當我們超過這些上限時，理賠費用將返還給我們。我們在第二季度記錄的 3000 萬美元和在第四季度記錄的 6400 萬美元，本年度總計 9400 萬美元，代表我們對先前發生的索賠的準備金調整。

So these are all prior period claims that we have increased our reserves based on our experience. With that, I will tell you that the reason why we've done this is because our insurance claims cost for the claims experience is just -- is dramatically going up.

因此，這些都是前期聲稱我們根據經驗增加了儲備。有了這個，我會告訴你，我們這樣做的原因是因為我們的索賠體驗的保險索賠成本正在急劇上升。

And it's a highly unpredictable environment. We are not planning in '23 for another onetime charge. But as I said, it's highly unpredictable, and we're continuing to watch our claims. Now I will tell you that we have made some changes to our structure going into '23. And so we are going to be taking on more coverage to contemplate this.

這是一個高度不可預測的環境。我們不打算在 23 年再次收取一次性費用。但正如我所說，這是高度不可預測的，我們將繼續關注我們的聲明。現在我會告訴你，我們已經對 23 年的結構進行了一些更改。因此，我們將進行更多報導來考慮這一點。

And I'll go even a little bit deeper than we normally do, just because this is a significant area that we're focused on. I think on a rate basis, our premiums are going to be up around 15%, just on the core premiums. But as I mentioned, we're adding in new layers of insurance, and so our premium base will also increase.

而且我會比我們通常做的更深入一點，因為這是我們關注的一個重要領域。我認為在利率的基礎上，我們的保費將上漲 15% 左右，僅在核心保費上。但正如我所提到的，我們正在增加新的保險層，因此我們的保費基數也會增加。

That said, we're expecting our incurred losses to increase as much as 30% to 35% in the next year because of what we're seeing on these -- just the movement today on how these claims are being settled. So a little bit more insight than we would normally give, but wanted to give you a little bit deeper information on what we're seeing in the insurance area.

也就是說，我們預計明年我們的損失將增加 30% 至 35%，因為我們在這些方面所看到的——只是今天關於如何解決這些索賠的動向。因此，比我們通常提供的洞察力要多一些，但想為您提供有關我們在保險領域所見情況的更深入的信息。

We now turn to Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

我們現在轉向巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

Darren, I think you spoke a couple of times about earnings growth in Intermodal this year. Can you just reconcile that with tougher pricing in the truckload market and how that dynamic could impact your yield generation this year? Not looking for specific guidance there either.

達倫，我想你曾多次談到聯運今年的盈利增長。你能否將這一點與卡車市場更嚴格的定價相協調，以及這種動態如何影響你今年的收益產生？也不在那裡尋找具體的指導。

Well, I mean, at the end of the day, we understand pricing pressure out there. Customers want to save money. But again, there is real cost to come out of our system, and there's real efficiency for us to gain with growth.

好吧，我的意思是，歸根結底，我們了解那裡的定價壓力。客戶想省錢。但同樣，我們的系統會產生實際成本，並且我們會隨著增長獲得真正的效率。

And so as we grow our Intermodal business, there is the opportunity to continue to do more loads with the assets that we have. It may not translate into the same income per shipment. But if we're executing more shipments as we move forward and find a way to drive some cost out, then we're going to be able to grow our income really strongly as we grow volume.

因此，隨著我們發展多式聯運業務，我們有機會繼續利用我們擁有的資產承擔更多的責任。它可能不會轉化為每批貨物的相同收入。但是，如果我們在前進的過程中執行更多的出貨量並找到一種方法來降低一些成本，那麼我們將能夠隨著銷量的增長而真正強勁地增加收入。

And that's the mission, is to get out as this bid season goes and as we're out communicating and displaying to our customers that velocity has improved and the Intermodal Service product has really improved a ton and can get closer in transit to what truck transit is, we feel like we can really grow our business significantly, which will turn into income growth as the year goes on.

這就是我們的使命，隨著這個投標季節的結束，我們正在向我們的客戶傳達和展示速度已經提高，多式聯運服務產品確實提高了很多，並且可以在運輸中更接近卡車運輸也就是說，我們覺得我們的業務真的可以顯著增長，隨著時間的推移，這將轉化為收入增長。

We now turn to Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo.

我們現在請來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

I just want to go back to Dedicated. I think this is probably applicable to Final Mile as well. On the maintenance cost side, new equipment coming in, maybe less consumer demand needs, how -- should we think about accelerating down pretty quickly this year? Or is it the customer needs are going to keep some of that aging equipment still in service? Just any thoughts there?

我只想回到 Dedicated。我認為這可能也適用於 Final Mile。在維護成本方面，新設備進來，也許消費者需求減少，我們應該如何考慮今年加速下降？還是客戶需要讓一些老化的設備繼續使用？有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. Well, it kind of goes through all fleets, Intermodal, Dedicated and Final Mile. Talking to our OEMs, they're still going to be constrained, they think this year.

是的。好吧，它涉及所有車隊、多式聯運、專用和最後一英里。與我們的原始設備製造商交談，他們認為今年他們仍然會受到限制。

And so we've publicly announced that we're going to a third OEM that will help us alleviate some of those constraints. But based on our forecast, we will still be handling a few hundred trucks that are past due at the end of this year that could move forward if the OEM numbers come up. But we will have some trades that we're going to carry with us the most part of the year.

因此，我們公開宣布我們將與第三家 OEM 合作，這將幫助我們減輕其中的一些限制。但根據我們的預測，我們仍將處理今年年底逾期的數百輛卡車，如果 OEM 數量出現，這些卡車可能會繼續處理。但我們將在一年中的大部分時間進行一些交易。

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Shelley, just can we revisit some of the comments there on bid season? I think you noted that bid season was fully loaded by July 1. So are we still looking at a March through May industry bid season for part of the business? And if it is then coming up, I guess, Brad and Darren, you've each talked about maybe fourth quarter demand weakness and outlook into the new year. Maybe can you talk about how you're thinking about where contract stands versus spot levels?

雪萊，我們能否重新審視那里關於投標季節的一些評論？我想你注意到投標季節在 7 月 1 日之前已經滿載。那麼我們是否仍在尋找部分業務的 3 月至 5 月的行業投標季節？如果它隨後出現，我想，布拉德和達倫，你們每個人都談到了第四季度的需求疲軟和對新一年的展望。也許你能談談你是如何考慮合約價位與現貨價位的？

I would say our customers, in general, are going to be implementing between now and July 1. We still have a smaller portion of our business that will implement from July 1 all the way through the end of the year. But the bulk of the business, we tend to look at our business in that July 1 through the next year as to how we think about revenue quality, our growth plans.

我想說的是，一般來說，我們的客戶將在現在到 7 月 1 日之間實施。我們仍有一小部分業務將從 7 月 1 日一直實施到年底。但對於大部分業務，我們傾向於從 7 月 1 日到明年的業務來看待我們如何看待收入質量和增長計劃。

Although we budget for a full year at the calendar year, we actually review what's happened from a bid season at midyear. And I would say our customers are, are largely in line. We do have a few customers that might have changed some of their bids start, but for the most part, they're in line with what we've historically seen. And I'll let Darren or Brad comment, if there's anything else there.

儘管我們在日曆年為一整年制定預算，但實際上我們會在年中回顧競標季的情況。我會說我們的客戶基本上都在排隊。我們確實有一些客戶可能已經改變了他們的一些出價開始，但在大多數情況下，他們與我們歷史上看到的一致。如果還有其他問題，我會讓 Darren 或 Brad 發表評論。

Well, I'm going to ask Brad to comment on the spot versus...

好吧，我要請布拉德當場發表評論，而不是……

Yes. Ken, I'll make a few comments here. We're still very early in bid season, but our strategy is clearly focused on winning contracted business. The spot market and what we've seen in that over the last several months, and we can't necessarily count on when or if that may return or if and when it does, what -- does it get back to what it used to be?

是的。肯，我會在這裡發表一些評論。我們仍處於投標季節的早期階段，但我們的戰略顯然側重於贏得合同業務。現貨市場以及我們在過去幾個月中看到的情況，我們不一定能指望它何時或是否會回歸，或者是否以及何時回歸，它會回到過去的狀態嗎是？

Is it something less? And so we are optimistic about early feedback in bids and what we're seeing there, meeting our expectations in terms of volume growth of contracted business.

是不是少了什麼？因此，我們對投標的早期反饋以及我們在那裡看到的情況持樂觀態度，滿足我們對合同業務量增長的預期。

So from a -- on the transactional side, on highway, that's our predominant focus. I think in years past, we will move around the percentages of what's published versus spot. And I would anticipate us being on the highest end of that from a contract standpoint versus spot in highway. Intermodal is certainly a little different. They don't play the spot market nearly as much. And so I'll let maybe Darren comment what he sees.

因此，從交易方面來看，在高速公路上，這是我們的主要關注點。我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們將圍繞發佈內容與現貨的百分比進行調整。從合同的角度來看，我預計我們將處於最高端，而不是在高速公路上。多式聯運當然有點不同。他們幾乎不參與現貨市場。所以我會讓 Darren 評論他所看到的。

Well, I think Intermodal contract prices should continue to provide in most corridors a significant saving against highway contract rates, fuel inclusive. And that's been the case forever, and there will be no difference this year.

好吧，我認為多式聯運合同價格應該繼續在大多數走廊中提供相對於高速公路合同費率（包括燃料）的顯著節省。一直都是這樣，今年也不會有什麼不同。

Certainly, there's a handful of markets out there where I think truck spot prices may be applying some pressure at the customer level around their mix of Highway and intermodal and we'll watch that, and we'll try to adapt and we'll talk to our rail providers and look for ways to take cost out of our systems so that we can be competitive.

當然，在一些市場上，我認為卡車現貨價格可能會圍繞公路和多式聯運的組合在客戶層面施加一些壓力，我們會關注這一點，我們會努力適應，我們會討論給我們的鐵路供應商，並尋找降低我們系統成本的方法，以便我們具有競爭力。

But at the same time, we're going to be disciplined about our returns and our margin profiles and everything about our business that has been the case forever at J.B. Hunt.

但與此同時，我們將對我們的回報和我們的利潤率概況以及 J.B. Hunt 永遠如此的我們業務的一切進行紀律處分。

Our next question comes from Todd Fowler from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Fowler。

Great. I think this has been touched on a couple of different ways throughout the call, but maybe just bringing it together, how do we think about the shape of the quarters and earnings as we move through '23. It seems like that the volume environment is going to start off, weak in the first quarter, but there's an expectation for some inflection midyear.

偉大的。我認為在整個電話會議中已經通過幾種不同的方式談到了這一點，但也許只是把它放在一起，我們如何考慮季度的形狀和我們在 23 年期間的收益。似乎銷量環境將開始，第一季度疲軟，但預計年中會出現一些拐點。

But at the same time, contract pricing is going to come in. So how do we think about seasonality? And then if the demand environment doesn't inflect up, what are some of the cost levers that you have that can offset weaker demand?

但與此同時，合同定價將會出現。那麼我們如何考慮季節性因素呢？然後，如果需求環境沒有改變，您擁有哪些可以抵消需求疲軟的成本槓桿？

Todd, it's Brad Delco. You get the fortunate pleasure of me responding to that question. One, we don't provide guidance, but I think maybe one general statement, I would say, and we've talked about this before: we haven't really seen seasonality over the better part of the last 2 or 3 years just based on elevated demand level that we've seen.

托德，我是布拉德德爾科。你很幸運我能回答這個問題。第一，我們不提供指導，但我想也許是一個一般性的聲明，我想說，我們之前已經討論過這個問題：在過去 2 或 3 年的大部分時間裡，我們並沒有真正看到季節性。在我們看到的高需求水平上。

Clearly, seasonality has come back into play. You saw that in the fourth quarter. In fact, I think Brad Hicks' comments and Darren's comments suggested that we actually saw atypical seasonality where fourth quarter was, overall from a demand perspective, weaker than Q3.

顯然，季節性因素又回來了。你在第四季度看到了這一點。事實上，我認為 Brad Hicks 的評論和 Darren 的評論表明我們實際上看到了非典型的季節性，從需求的角度來看，第四季度總體上弱於第三季度。

I'd also just say, I think you heard there probably isn't a lot of expectations from the demand environment changing much at least in terms of what visibility we have here in first quarter.

我還要說的是，我想你聽說需求環境可能不會有太大變化，至少就我們在第一季度的能見度而言是這樣。

What happens after that? We really -- we don't have any better crystal ball than anybody else. So I think giving you any more detail on guidance and how the year plays out, would probably not be in our best interest.

之後會發生什麼？我們真的 - 我們沒有比其他任何人更好的水晶球。因此，我認為向您提供更多有關指導以及今年結果的詳細信息可能不符合我們的最大利益。

We now turn to Ari Rosa from Crédit Suisse.

我們現在求助於瑞士信貸銀行的 Ari Rosa。

Great. I wanted to ask, John Kuhlow, mentioned that you guys might be willing to take up leverage for the right opportunities. I just wanted to press a little bit more on that comment and understand if that was a reference to M&A or if it was a reference to something else? And if it was a reference to M&A, what are the types of opportunities that you would be thinking about that would justify that sort of taking up of leverage?

偉大的。我想問，John Kuhlow，提到你們可能願意利用合適的機會。我只是想多強調一下該評論，並了解這是對併購的引用還是對其他內容的引用？如果它是對併購的參考，您會考慮哪些類型的機會可以證明這種槓桿作用是合理的？

Yes. There wasn't anything in -- specifically that I was referring to. It was just more commenting on the strength of our balance sheet, our liquidity position and the ability to take advantage of opportunities that exist. We still continue to look at buyback or excuse me, at M&A, as it becomes available and we'll continue to do so. But buybacks and dividends are also a core piece of our capital allocation process and will evaluate that as well.

是的。裡面沒有任何東西——特別是我所指的。它只是更多地評論了我們資產負債表的實力、我們的流動性狀況以及利用現有機會的能力。我們仍然會繼續考慮回購或對不起，在併購方面，當它可用時，我們將繼續這樣做。但回購和股息也是我們資本配置過程的核心部分，我們也會對其進行評估。

Our next question comes from Bascome Majors from Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

As you went through the competitive bids with Schneider leaving your rail partner and moving over to the UP, can you tell us what you learned about your customers desire to perhaps stay with the BN versus create some competitive or maintain some competitive tension in their intermodal suppliers and how that's inflecting your strategy long term to grow the business?

當您通過施耐德離開您的鐵路合作夥伴並轉移到 UP 的競爭性投標時，您能告訴我們您了解到您的客戶希望留在 BN 還是在他們的多式聯運供應商中創造一些競爭或保持一些競爭緊張以及這如何影響您的長期戰略以發展業務？

So I don't know that we have enough details yet to really have a strong position on that. We universally hear from our customers that they want to maintain a significant share on BNSF. They are -- they have confidence in our ability to talk them through the service improvements and our ability to provide the capacity that Schneider has taken with them.

所以我不知道我們是否有足夠的細節來真正在這方面有一個強硬的立場。我們普遍從客戶那裡聽到他們希望在 BNSF 中保持重要份額。他們是 - 他們對我們通過服務改進與他們交談的能力以及我們提供 Schneider 所具備的能力的能力充滿信心。

So I think there's no doubt out of our customer base that we have the capacity to backfill anything Schneider was operating on BNSF. It's also not the top-of-mind topic. When we're talking to our customers, the first subject is not, "Hey, can you take on Schneider's business."

因此，我認為毫無疑問，我們的客戶群有能力回填施耐德在 BNSF 上運營的任何東西。這也不是最重要的話題。當我們與客戶交談時，第一個話題不是“嘿，你能接手施耐德的業務嗎？”

Our process is to go into a customer and talk about their network and look for solutions with Intermodal, where it's the right solution regardless of who the competitor might be handling that business. So we're just out trying to solve for our customers, and we think they have real confidence in us.

我們的流程是進入客戶並討論他們的網絡並尋找 Intermodal 的解決方案，無論競爭對手是誰處理該業務，它都是正確的解決方案。所以我們只是想為我們的客戶解決問題，我們認為他們對我們有真正的信心。

I think that the Schneider exit means a ton in the way we talk to BNSF, how we collaborate together, and how we're talking about operations in the terminals, how we're going to market together. So the Schneider exit from BNSF to me is significantly valuable in the way we're communicating with BNSF. And I'd like to believe our customers will get a benefit out of that.

我認為施耐德退出意味著我們與 BNSF 交談的方式、我們如何合作、我們如何談論終端運營、我們如何一起營銷。因此，施耐德從 BNSF 退出對我來說在我們與 BNSF 的溝通方式上非常有價值。我相信我們的客戶會從中受益。

Our next question comes from Jason Seidl from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

One quick one from me. You talked a little bit about expectations for growing Intermodal this year. I guess how do you think about contract rates on the Truckload side. And where they might put some pressure on that. They've held up largely, but we're starting to hear from some private carriers that expectations are anywhere between, let's call it, 3% and 8% down.

我的一個快速的。你談到了今年對多式聯運增長的期望。我想您如何看待卡車裝載方面的合同費率。以及他們可能會對此施加壓力的地方。它們在很大程度上保持不變，但我們開始從一些私人運營商那裡聽到預期介於兩者之間，我們稱之為，下降 3% 和 8%。

I'll start, Jason, and I think maybe you're asking about what we might see on the Truckload side and then how we think about that impacting in any way, shape or form, Intermodal contract rates, if I understood the question correctly?

我要開始了，Jason，我想也許你問的是我們在 Truckload 方面可能會看到什麼，然後我們如何看待它以任何方式、形狀或形式影響多式聯運合同費率，如果我理解正確的話？

We certainly have seen and expect to see downward rate pressure on the highway side. The good news is, and we -- from where we sit, in the evolution of our truck line and now with the combination of ICS and JBT, we are, for the most part, variable on our power.

我們當然已經看到並預計會看到高速公路方面的利率下行壓力。好消息是，我們——從我們所處的位置來看，在我們卡車系列的發展中，以及現在隨著 ICS 和 JBT 的結合，我們在很大程度上是在我們的力量上變化的。

And so we're able to ebb and flow with that fluctuation in a much more favorable life than perhaps we were when we were an asset provider. But we do fully expect -- I'm not going to give guidance on what we anticipate or what we're planning for on the overall rate movement, but we certainly expect it to be down somewhat substantially just as we saw it go up somewhat substantially or abnormally 2 to 3 years ago. We are seeing that kind of correction back downward.

因此，與我們作為資產提供者時相比，我們能夠在更有利的生活中隨著這種波動而潮起潮落。但我們確實完全期望——我不會就我們對整體利率變動的預期或計劃提供指導，但我們當然希望它會大幅下降，就像我們看到它有所上升一樣2 至 3 年前基本上或異常。我們正在看到這種向下修正。

I think on the Intermodal front, the only thing I would say is historically, and I don't think it will be any different today, Intermodal will outperform a downturn in truckload rates. I'm not going to ignore that certainly becomes a dialogue and a talking point for our customers.

我認為在多式聯運方面，我唯一要說的是從歷史上看，我認為今天不會有任何不同，多式聯運的表現將優於卡車運載率的下滑。我不會忽視這肯定會成為我們客戶的對話和話題。

But the savings Intermodal offers against a truckload price continues to be significant. And whatever is happening in the truckload contract pricing, Intermodal will continue to be advantageous for our customers for now and for the long term, particularly, when you add the cost of fuel in there.

但多式聯運提供的相對於整車運輸價格的節省仍然很可觀。無論卡車合同定價發生什麼變化，多式聯運在現在和長期內都將繼續對我們的客戶有利，特別是當您在那裡增加燃料成本時。

Our next question comes from Bruce Chan from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

I appreciate the time. Maybe another one for you, Brad Hicks on ICS. You talked a bit in the release about a pickup and tech costs in '22. And I just wanted to get maybe a little bit more color on whether that was tied directly to volumes in that business, whether that was a structural investment in the platform or whether that was more inflationary?

我很感激時間。也許另一個給你，Brad Hicks on ICS。你在新聞稿中談到了 22 年的提貨和技術成本。我只是想了解一下這是否與該業務的交易量直接相關，這是對平台的結構性投資還是更具通脹性？

And then as you think about some of your comments around volumes this year, how much of an opportunity do you have to get more leverage on those costs?

然後當你考慮你今年關於銷量的一些評論時，你有多少機會可以更多地利用這些成本？

Thank you, Bruce. Part of that was by design. It was just making the point that it was a step-up from prior year as we look to continue to finish out some of the tech investments that we've made, both in ICS and for JBT and highway, really focused on our ability to get productivity gains both from our people and also better transparency and visibility of our platform for both our carriers and our shippers.

謝謝你，布魯斯。部分原因是設計使然。它只是表明它比前一年有所進步，因為我們希望繼續完成我們在 ICS 以及 JBT 和高速公路方面所做的一些技術投資，真正專注於我們的能力從我們的員工那裡獲得生產力的提高，並為我們的承運人和托運人提高我們平台的透明度和知名度。

And so do we feel like there's upside as we continue to move forward? Absolutely. We've started to realize the benefit of those tech investments as we've talked about for the last few quarters. But there's still work to be done. Even inside of '23, we expect a further build-out of that -- those technologies that will help us on productivity and overall execution of the business, all focused on really when you think about the platform, it has enabled us to really think about how we would blend what's historically been our live freight business, which is ICS versus our drop freight business in JBT.

那麼，隨著我們繼續前進，我們是否覺得有好處？絕對地。正如我們在過去幾個季度談到的那樣，我們已經開始意識到這些技術投資的好處。但仍有工作要做。即使在 23 年內，我們也希望進一步擴展它——那些將幫助我們提高生產力和業務整體執行的技術，當你考慮這個平台時，所有這些都真正集中在它上面，它使我們能夠真正思考關於我們如何融合歷史上我們的實時貨運業務，即 ICS 與我們在 JBT 的直接貨運業務。

And through that blending, we're able to make better decisions that drive efficiencies, help improve service that ultimately can be a benefit to our customers through a lower cost. So that's what our focus is going into '23, and we expect to make continuous improvements throughout.

通過這種融合，我們能夠做出更好的決策來提高效率，幫助改善服務，最終通過降低成本為我們的客戶帶來好處。這就是我們進入 23 年的重點，我們希望在整個過程中不斷改進。

Our final question today comes from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Kauffman。

Shelley, I want to go back to a comment you were talking about how the weakness is mostly related to big inventory correction by customers and likely to get better starting in 2Q. I guess, really, how do we know there's not something more nefarious going on beneath these weak inventory-driven numbers in terms of the economy weakening or consumer weakening?

Shelley，我想回到你談到的疲軟主要與客戶的大量庫存調整有關並且可能從第二季度開始變得更好的評論。我想，真的，我們怎麼知道在經濟疲軟或消費者疲軟方面，這些疲軟的庫存驅動數據背後沒有更邪惡的事情發生？

And then in terms of the inventory reductions, I know a lot of customers have built these inventory buffers last year because of the supply chain issues as we went from kind of JIT to just in case. Is your sense that the customers are bringing inventories back to where they used to be? Or is there still going to be a buffer when this inventory adjustment is set and done? I apologize -- there are 2 prongs on this, but it's all related.

然後就庫存減少而言，我知道很多客戶去年由於供應鏈問題建立了這些庫存緩衝區，因為我們從 JIT 轉變為以防萬一。您是否感覺到客戶正在將庫存恢復到原來的水平？還是在設置並完成此庫存調整後仍然會有緩衝？抱歉——這有兩個問題，但都是相關的。

Thank you, Jack (sic) [Jeff]. And I might just start with what Brad Delco said, which is our crystal ball is not very good and really not like anybody else's, it's hard and difficult. But we do talk to our customers and what they're telling us is it's largely an inventory correction happening.

謝謝你，傑克（原文如此）[傑夫]。我可能會從 Brad Delco 所說的開始，那就是我們的水晶球不是很好，真的不像其他人的水晶球，它很難而且很難。但我們確實與客戶交談，他們告訴我們的是，這主要是庫存調整。

I will say, I think they're evaluating. Part of the flip that Brad Hicks talked about last quarter was really around the capacity side, but also the flips occurring from an inventory side, as we're coming on that back end of COVID what consumers were buying and what they're purchasing moving into the future, that's part of what's happening from an inventory correction perspective.

我會說，我認為他們正在評估。 Brad Hicks 上個季度談到的部分轉變實際上是圍繞產能方面的，但也包括庫存方面的轉變，因為我們正處於 COVID 的後端，消費者正在購買什麼以及他們正在購買什麼展望未來，從庫存修正的角度來看，這是正在發生的事情的一部分。

But I would say I don't know that we have a great crystal ball, but this is what our customers are telling us. We feel confident that we're going to be fluid in making sure that we have a good conversation around that. And I apologize, Jeff -- it's Jeff, not Jack.

但我會說我不知道我們有一個很棒的水晶球，但這就是我們的客戶告訴我們的。我們相信我們會流暢地確保我們圍繞這個問題進行良好的對話。我很抱歉，傑夫——我是傑夫，不是傑克。

This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand over to Shelley Simpson, President, for any final remarks.

我們的問答到此結束。現在，我將請總裁 Shelley Simpson 發表最後的評論。

Great. Thank you so much. And I'll also hand it back to John here at the end. But I think you heard us open and talk a lot about the challenges that are being presented, but also the opportunities that we think exist for our customers and also for J.B. Hunt. We're going to continue to be fluid. And we are cautious based on what we're seeing on the demand side, but we're very confident in our ability to really thrive in this environment and in any environment.

偉大的。太感謝了。我也會在最後將它交還給 John。但我想你聽到我們開放並談論了很多關於所面臨的挑戰，但也有我們認為存在於我們的客戶和 J.B. Hunt 的機會。我們將繼續保持流動性。基於我們在需求方面看到的情況，我們持謹慎態度，但我們對我們在這種環境和任何環境中真正蓬勃發展的能力充滿信心。

I talked about our 3 priorities, and those really don't change, whether that's this year, the next year or years after. We're going to stay disciplined with our long-term investment around our people, our technology and capacity being fluid in those decisions and making sure we stay close with our customers.

我談到了我們的 3 個優先事項，這些確實不會改變，無論是今年、明年還是幾年後。我們將對圍繞我們的人員的長期投資保持紀律，我們的技術和能力在這些決策中是流動的，並確保我們與客戶保持密切聯繫。

We will be very focused on creating more customer value. And this year, we are helping our customers with cost savings. You heard Darren talk about, we're going to do that through efficiency. We are talking to them about mode conversion, to the most efficiently and transportation available into Intermodal.

我們將非常專注於創造更多的客戶價值。今年，我們正在幫助我們的客戶節省成本。你聽達倫說過，我們將通過提高效率來做到這一點。我們正在與他們討論模式轉換，以最有效的方式轉換為多式聯運。

We're going to continue to build great fleets for them and create a more efficient fleet. We're going to differentiate our customers' experience in the Final Mile segment. And we're also going to leverage J.B. Hunt 360 to bring a flexible cost and capacity solution.

我們將繼續為他們建造偉大的艦隊，並創造一個更高效的艦隊。我們將在“最後一英里”細分市場中打造與眾不同的客戶體驗。我們還將利用 J.B. Hunt 360 帶來靈活的成本和容量解決方案。

Finally, we are going to continue to have long-term compounding returns for our shareholders. Those are our 3 priorities. But before I turn it over to John, I want to make sure that I say, we are so proud of the over 37,000 employees, that have delivered, really over the last 3 years, but even in the fourth quarter, a little bit of noise there. But I'll tell you the effort that our people have made through 2022, our customers notice, our customers trust us, and every day, we work very hard to be their trusted provider.

最後，我們將繼續為股東帶來長期復合回報。這些是我們的 3 個優先事項。但在我把它交給約翰之前，我想確保我說的是，我們為超過 37,000 名員工感到自豪，他們確實在過去 3 年中，但即使在第四季度，也有一點點那裡有噪音。但我會告訴你，我們的員工在 2022 年之前所做的努力，我們的客戶注意到了，我們的客戶信任我們，每天，我們都非常努力地工作，成為他們值得信賴的供應商。

We want to continue to accelerate with our customers. But without our people, technology and capacity really would be irrelevant. And so I just can't emphasize enough the great work our teams have done, we're proud of the teams, and we're looking forward to 2023. John?

我們希望繼續與我們的客戶一起加速。但是如果沒有我們的人，技術和能力真的是無關緊要的。因此，我怎麼強調我們團隊所做的出色工作都不為過，我們為團隊感到自豪，我們期待著 2023 年。約翰？

Good, Shelley. Thank you. Great comment there. I want to go back to the noisy fourth and just say that this claims event has gotten all of our attention. It's a little bit like a (inaudible) sandwich. We wanted to understand our current position and lean into '23. I'm confident in John's approach here with the changes that he is making and plan to continue to stay very close to that. And keep an eye, to be sure we're tracking and adjust maybe, more affluently, if that's a good way to think about either this part of the business because we -- none of us like that kind of surprise or noise.

很好，雪萊。謝謝。那裡有很好的評論。我想回到吵鬧的第四場，我只想說這個索賠事件已經引起了我們所有人的注意。它有點像（聽不清）三明治。我們想了解我們目前的位置並傾向於 23 年。我對 John 在這裡所做的改變充滿信心，併計劃繼續保持非常接近的狀態。並留意，以確保我們正在跟踪和調整，也許更富裕，如果這是考慮這部分業務的好方法，因為我們——我們都不喜歡那種驚喜或噪音。

I want to mention that the OEM position that we're in right now, I'm super confident in. I have worked with Nick and the OEMs to help better position the company as a very strategic buyer. We are a very different type of Class 8 and Class 6 buyer.

我想提一下我們現在所處的 OEM 位置，我對此非常有信心。我與 Nick 和 OEM 合作，幫助更好地將公司定位為一個非常具有戰略意義的買家。我們是非常不同類型的第 8 類和第 6 類買家。

And our management and our providers are really understanding that. I think that's got a really good long-term positioning value for us. I would also say that very, very closely aligned with our rail providers, like I've never seen, and I have either in this job or my prior job have been able to really see how those relationships work.

我們的管理層和我們的供應商真正理解這一點。我認為這對我們來說具有非常好的長期定位價值。我還要說，與我們的鐵路供應商非常、非常緊密地保持一致，這是我從未見過的，而且我在這份工作或我之前的工作中已經能夠真正看到這些關係是如何運作的。

And in being close to them, I'm very confident. Questions about our equipment additions and those ideas in the near term are appropriate, but I like what Darren said. This is a long march, and we are positioned and as good as I've ever seen us. And so we will be taking advantage of those corrections.

在接近他們時，我非常有信心。關於我們近期的設備增加和這些想法的問題是適當的，但我喜歡 Darren 所說的。這是一場長征，我們的定位和我所見過的一樣好。因此，我們將利用這些更正。

And I think we're going to just kind of coin the term leaning forward into '23, '24, '25. My closing word is the same as Shelley's, I'm really, really proud of all of our people, but I'm also particularly proud of our leadership. It has not been easy. And no one thinks it has and no one has claimed that in any part of the industry.

而且我認為我們將把前傾這個詞變成“23”、“24”、“25”。我的結束語和 Shelley 一樣，我真的為我們所有的員工感到驕傲，但我也為我們的領導層感到特別自豪。這並不容易。沒有人認為它有，也沒有人聲稱在該行業的任何部分。

But I am particularly proud of what happened in 2020, what happened in 2021, and what has happened so far, as we close out 2022. That gives me great confidence when we look forward as to our ability to go capitalize on the opportunities here. So we appreciate you being on the call. And we'll talk to you next quarter.

但我對 2020 年發生的事情、2021 年發生的事情以及迄今為止發生的事情感到特別自豪，因為我們即將結束 2022 年。當我們期待我們有能力利用這裡的機會時，這給了我很大的信心。因此，我們感謝您接聽電話。我們將在下個季度與您交談。

This call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

本次通話現已結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。