ORIX Corp (IX) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining this telephone conference of ORIX Corporation for the first quarter consolidated financial results for the 3 months period ended June 30, 2022. The attendee of today's conference is the Executive Officer, Head of Treasury and Accounting Headquarters, Mr. Yano.

先生們女士們晚上好。感謝您參加歐力士株式會社關於截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日的 3 個月期間第一季度合併財務業績的電話會議。今天會議的與會者是執行官、財務和會計總部負責人矢野先生。

As we begin, we have a request to you, in order to prevent the feedback, please make sure that you either turn off your mobile phone and other mobile devices or keep them away from the phone. If we experience severe feedback, we may just wrap the meeting with the consent of the organizer, in order to get in touch with the attendee who is causing the feedback.

在我們開始時，我們有一個要求，為了防止反饋，請確保您關閉您的手機和其他移動設備或讓它們遠離手機。如果我們遇到嚴重的反饋，我們可能會在組織者同意的情況下結束會議，以便與引起反饋的與會者取得聯繫。

Now, Mr. Yano will provide us with a presentation, and it will be followed by Q&A. We expect the whole duration of the meeting to last approximately 1 hour. We would like to start the meeting. Mr. Yano, the floor is yours.

現在，矢野先生將為我們做一個介紹，然後是問答環節。我們預計會議的整個持續時間約為 1 小時。我們想開始會議。矢野先生，地板是你的。

Good afternoon. This is Hitomaro Yano, thank you all very much for joining us today. So without further ado, I'd like to start the presentation on first quarter, FY '23 March end results.

下午好。我是 Hitomaro Yano，非常感謝大家今天加入我們。因此，事不宜遲，我想從 3 月 23 財年第一季度的最終結果開始介紹。

Now please turn to Page 2 for the executive summary. So I'd like to go through each and every executive summary point. As for the first point, the net income declined 5% year-over-year to JPY 61.9 billion translating to annualized ROE of 7.5%. Profit growth in 5 segments out of 10 including Aircraft and Ships where passenger demand is improving in Asia and Australia which continues to perform well. And Energy and the Environment, which executed several large transactions last year.

現在請轉到第 2 頁查看執行摘要。因此，我想了解每一個執行摘要要點。至於第一點，淨利潤同比下降 5% 至 619 億日元，年化 ROE 為 7.5%。 10 個部門中有 5 個部門的利潤增長，包括亞洲和澳大利亞的客運需求正在改善的飛機和船舶，繼續表現良好。以及去年執行了幾筆大宗交易的能源與環境。

Second, earnings were down year-on-year in some segments due to negative change in the market climate as ORIX USA, PE Investment gains declined and earnings in the Real Estate business were lower. At ORIX Europe AUM shrank due to the decline in equity markets. Within Japan ORIX Life saw an increase in COVID related payouts owing to a renewed surge in infections.

其次，由於歐力士美國、PE投資收益下降、房地產業務收益下降等市場環境的負面變化，部分板塊收益同比下降。由於股市下跌，歐力士歐洲的資產管理規模縮水。在日本，由於感染人數再次激增，歐力士人壽的相關支出有所增加。

Third, I will discuss our ORIX's asset portfolio under current market conditions and a view on future investments. Macro indicators moved dramatically during first quarter, including global inflation, interest rate hikes by the U.S. FRB and rapid yen depreciation. Against this uncertain economic backdrop, the non-performing loan ratio for ORIX's assets has remained at a low level and credit losses and impairments have not increased.

第三，我將討論我們歐力士在當前市場條件下的資產組合以及對未來投資的看法。宏觀指標在第一季度大幅波動，包括全球通脹、美國 FRB 加息和日元快速貶值。在這種不確定的經濟背景下，歐力士資產的不良貸款率一直保持在較低水平，信用損失和減值損失沒有增加。

To the contrary we see increasing opportunities for new investments in terms of those business area and price in this changing environment, receiving a larger number of inquiries. We will apply a careful approach to these decisions by evaluating each deal on an individual basis but we hope to proactively seek out new investment opportunities by taking advantage of our strong balance sheet.

相反，在這種不斷變化的環境中，我們看到在這些業務領域和價格方面的新投資機會越來越多，收到了更多的詢問。我們將通過單獨評估每筆交易來謹慎對待這些決定，但我們希望利用我們強大的資產負債表主動尋找新的投資機會。

The fourth point focuses on shareholder returns. As at the end of July, ORIX had carried out JPY 17.3 billion of the JPY 50 billion in shareholder buybacks announced in May showing a steady execution of shareholders' return policy, just to report to you.

第四點關注股東回報。 5月宣布的500億日元股東回購中，截至7月底，歐力士已執行173億日元，股東回報政策執行穩健，謹向大家匯報。

Now, the third page I have no additional comment to be made. So let me go all the way to Page 4. This page shows breakdown of segment profit. Segment profits for JPY 85.9 billion. Please look at the right hand side bar chart. This shows the breakdown of segment profits by quarter for the last 2 years. Base profits are in dark blue, our investment gains are in light blue. Base profits were up 2% year-over-year and 11% Q-on-Q to JPY 74.5 billion.

現在，第三頁我沒有其他評論要發表。所以讓我一直到第 4 頁。這個頁面顯示了部門利潤的細分。分部利潤為 859 億日元。請查看右側的條形圖。這顯示了過去 2 年按季度劃分的部門利潤細分。基礎利潤為深藍色，我們的投資收益為淺藍色。基礎利潤同比增長 2%，環比增長 11%，達到 745 億日元。

Meanwhile, investment gains so is maintaining a very steady base profit. Meanwhile, investment gains were down 60% year-over-year to JPY 11.4 billion on lower investment gains at ORIX USA and others. As I commented earlier, we plan to realize gains going forward this fiscal year.

同時，投資收益因此保持非常穩定的基本利潤。與此同時，由於歐力士美國和其他公司的投資收益下降，投資收益同比下降 60% 至 114 億日元。正如我之前評論的那樣，我們計劃在本財年實現收益。

I will now briefly review performance by segment. As a matter of fact, please note that ORIX has changed our method for allocating some interest expenses and SG&A costs from first quarter FY '23 March. Segment SG&A costs are higher as a result. We have retroactively adjusted segment profits for past fiscal years to reflect this change. Please note that FY '22 March figures have changed for this reason.

我現在將按部分簡要回顧業績。事實上，請注意歐力士從 3 月 23 財年第一季度開始改變了我們分配一些利息費用和 SG&A 成本的方法。因此，分部 SG&A 成本較高。我們追溯調整了過去財政年度的分部利潤以反映這一變化。請注意，由於這個原因，3 月 22 財年的數據發生了變化。

Page 5 and 6 are summary of segment profits and assets but we will skip these today and discuss the specific segments using segment slides.

第 5 頁和第 6 頁是細分利潤和資產的摘要，但我們今天將跳過這些並使用細分幻燈片討論特定細分。

Please turn to Page 7. In the Corporate Financial Service and Maintenance Leasing segment, segment profits were down 9% year-over-year to JPY 15.7 billion. But flat, if profits from the Yayoi unit, which was sold in the previous fiscal year, are excluded. Corporate Financial Services put valuation losses on its equity stake in an investee but fee income was up year-over-year. The older business unit was able to maintain a high level of profits as the used car market remained strong and the rental car business continued its post-COVID recovery. Also rented earnings remained healthy.

請轉至第 7 頁。在企業金融服務和維修租賃部門，部門利潤同比下降 9% 至 157 億日元。但是，如果不包括上一財年出售的 Yayoi 部門的利潤，則持平。 Corporate Financial Services對其在被投資方的股權進行估值損失，但費用收入同比增長。由於二手車市場保持強勁且租車業務在疫情過後繼續復甦，老舊的業務部門能夠保持高水平的利潤。租金收入也保持健康。

Please turn to the next page. The page shows the Real Estate segment. Segment profit rose 13% year-over-year to JPY 11.9 billion. In addition to investment gains booked on the sale of logistics facilities and other properties, occupancy rates improved at inns and hotels, leading to higher profits at investments in facilities operation. Profits at DAIKYO was flat year-over-year. Although condo sales fell as compared to the prior year investment gains were booked on the sale of rental condo properties. In our asset recycling business model ORIX purchases land and develops the properties on its own. The assets are then leased and sold depending on timing, and consideration. Real Estate segment asset size remains largely unchanged year-over-year as a cycle of asset sales and new investments continued. Please turn to the next page.

請翻到下一頁。該頁面顯示房地產部分。分部利潤同比增長 13% 至 119 億日元。除了出售物流設施和其他物業的投資收益外，旅館和酒店的入住率有所提高，導致設施運營投資的利潤增加。 DAIKYO 的利潤與去年同期持平。儘管與上一年相比，公寓銷售下降，但出租公寓物業的銷售記錄了投資收益。在我們的資產回收業務模式中，歐力士購買土地並自行開發物業。然後根據時間和對價出租和出售資產。隨著資產銷售和新投資週期的繼續，房地產部門的資產規模與去年同期相比基本保持不變。請翻到下一頁。

Next is the PE Investment and Concession segment. In the PE Investment unit profits increased due to steady performance of investees and the reduction of losses associated with Kobayashi Kako. ORIX also made its first new PE investment in roughly 18 months with an investment in HEXEL Works, an electrical works company for housing complex. The concession unit remains in the red as frequency of flights and essential numbers for international routes are still low but the domestic routes in Japan recovered year-over-year. Please turn to the next page.

接下來是PE投資和特許經營部分。在 PE 投資單位中，由於被投資方的業績穩定以及與小林化工相關的虧損減少，利潤增加。歐力士還在大約 18 個月內進行了首次新的私募股權投資，投資了 HEXEL Works，這是一家住宅綜合體的電氣工程公司。特許經營單位仍處於虧損狀態，因為國際航線的航班頻率和基本數量仍然很低，但日本國內航線同比恢復。請翻到下一頁。

So this is the Environment and Energy segment. In the domestic energy business, earnings grew thanks to higher power generation volumes and mega power solar projects owing to sunny weather. In the overseas energy business power generation volumes declined owing to seasonal factors, but soaring prices for electricity worldwide led to higher prices in some regions, which pushed up the earnings. Please turn to the next page.

這就是環境和能源部分。在國內能源業務中，由於天氣晴朗，發電量增加和大型太陽能項目，收益增長。海外能源業務受季節性因素影響發電量下降，但全球電價飆升導致部分地區電價上漲，推高收益。請翻到下一頁。

This is Insurance segment. As I mentioned earlier, segment profits were down 28% year-over-year, owing to an increase in hospitalization payouts, including in-home isolation during the first quarter caused by the February peak in COVID cases. Policies in force, however, continued to rise and insurance-driven income was higher. Investment income was also healthy, thanks to the U.S. dollar interest rate hike. Please turn to the next page.

這是保險部分。正如我之前提到的，由於住院費用增加，包括因 2 月 COVID 病例高峰導致的第一季度居家隔離，部門利潤同比下降 28%。然而，現行政策繼續上升，保險驅動的收入更高。由於美元加息，投資收入也很健康。請翻到下一頁。

This is the Banking and Credit segment. ORIX Bank's profits were lower year-on-year, owing to the absence of a onetime profit recorded in the previous period that earnings from real estate property loans remained strong. In the credit unit, we are aggressively investing in advertising for a new ORIX money product. This and the absence of the year earlier credit loss reversals led to lower profits, but the assets are steadily increasing. Please turn to the next page.

這是銀行和信貸部門。歐力士銀行的利潤同比下降，原因是上期沒有錄得一次性利潤，房地產貸款收益依然強勁。在信貸部門，我們正在積極投資於新的歐力士貨幣產品的廣告。這和去年沒有逆轉信貸損失導致利潤下降，但資產正在穩步增加。請翻到下一頁。

Aircraft and Ship segment returned to the black with a JPY 5.4 billion in segment profit, up JPY 10.4 billion year-on-year. Ships contributed to profit growth with our ship sales as market prices remained firm. And in aircraft leasing, as mentioned earlier, earnings are in an uptrend, thanks to recovery in passenger demand. ORIX continues to buy and sell aircraft. Earnings at Avolon recorded significantly -- recovered significantly on both the Q-on-Q and the year-on-year basis. And the losses shrank.

飛機和船舶部門實現盈利 54 億日元，同比增長 104 億日元。由於市場價格保持堅挺，船舶通過我們的船舶銷售為利潤增長做出了貢獻。而在飛機租賃方面，如前所述，由於客運需求回升，收益呈上升趨勢。歐力士繼續買賣飛機。 Avolon 的收益記錄顯著——環比和同比均顯著恢復。並且損失減少了。

Earnings at ORIX USA were down 76% year-on-year to JPY 6 billion. Other macro factors such as rising inflation, higher interest rates and concern over a possible recession in the U.S. certainly had an impact. Segment earnings this quarter were lower than anticipated. Please turn to Page 15 for a breakdown of the current situation.

歐力士美國公司的收益同比下降 76% 至 60 億日元。其他宏觀因素，如通脹上升、利率上升和對美國可能出現衰退的擔憂，肯定會產生影響。本季度的分部收益低於預期。請轉到第 15 頁了解當前情況的細分。

ORIX USA has 3 major lines of business. And on this page, we outlined how trends in each business deferred versus the previous year in terms of capital gains and base profit. The single largest factor behind the sharp decline in profit is lower capital gains in PE business. In first quarter, FY '22 ending March, ORIX USA posted investment gains on the sale of RoadSafe, a relatively large transaction, the absence of this and several other capital gains booked that quarter led to a JPY 9.9 billion decrease in capital gains in PE versus the previous fiscal year. The decline in earnings in the real estate business was another factor.

歐力士美國有 3 大業務線。在本頁中，我們概述了每項業務的趨勢在資本收益和基本利潤方面與上一年相比如何遞延。利潤急劇下降的最大因素是PE業務的資本收益下降。在截至 3 月的 22 財年第一季度，歐力士美國公佈了出售 RoadSafe 的投資收益，這是一項相對較大的交易，由於缺乏該交易以及該季度的其他幾項資本收益，導致 PE 的資本收益減少了 99 億日元與上一財年相比。房地產業務的收益下降是另一個因素。

The U.S. market saw a temporary disruption in government mortgage loan agencies' loan purchases caused primarily by higher interest rates and the group interest rate volatility. Both ORIX USA (inaudible) estate loan earnings. So as a result, we are currently tightening our standards for new deals. In light of rising inflation and economic uncertainties, we plan to maintain flexible stance to best position ourselves for any direction of the market.

美國市場上，政府抵押貸款機構的貸款購買暫時中斷，主要是由於利率上升和集團利率波動。歐力士美國（聽不清）房地產貸款收益。因此，我們目前正在收緊新交易的標準。鑑於通脹上升和經濟不確定性，我們計劃保持靈活立場，為市場的任何方向做好準備。

Please note that the bulk of the increase in assets was due to ForEx effect.

請注意，資產增加的大部分是由於外匯效應。

AUM -- please on the next page, this is ORIX Europe. AUM hit a record last fiscal year, but were down this year owing to changes in the macro climate, including higher interest rates and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, segment profit fell 31% year-on-year to JPY 9.3 billion. However, ORIX maintains a diversified portfolio in specialized areas in asset management businesses and the CTA Transtrend and value equity manager, Boston Partners, both performed well. Please turn to the next page.

AUM——請在下一頁，這裡是歐力士歐洲。資產管理規模在上一財年創下歷史新高，但由於宏觀環境的變化，包括利率上升和俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突，今年下降，部門利潤同比下降 31% 至 93 億日元。然而，歐力士在資產管理業務的專業領域保持著多元化的投資組合，而 CTA Transtrend 和價值股權管理公司 Boston Partners 均表現良好。請翻到下一頁。

This is the last segment, Asia and Australia. Segment profit rose 48% year-on-year to JPY 12.6 billion in the Asia and Australia segment. Aided by the COVID recovery, assets from across the region contributed to the strong results. Car leasing in Australia and South Korea remains upbeat, which added to profit growth. The increase in assets is mainly attributable to changes in ForEx.

這是最後一個部分，亞洲和澳大利亞。亞洲和澳大利亞分部的分部利潤同比增長 48% 至 126 億日元。在 COVID 復甦的幫助下，來自整個地區的資產促成了強勁的業績。澳大利亞和韓國的汽車租賃仍然樂觀，這增加了利潤增長。資產增加主要是由於外匯變動所致。

This ends my segment-specific comments. Next, I'd like to address some additional topics, which may be of interest to you. Please turn to the next page.

這結束了我針對特定細分市場的評論。接下來，我想談一些您可能感興趣的其他主題。請翻到下一頁。

There are 2 pages. The first page outlines the pace of COVID recovery. The left-hand graph shows segment profit at the 3 COVID-impacted businesses. And please look at the year-on-year comparison graph in the middle. For the first quarter, compared to the pre-COVID period, contribution of profit is lower, but you can see steady recovery in the earnings over the last couple of years. And please note that [hallmark] included in the chart, an increase in hospitalization payout of COVID, including for those in home isolation related to the latest surge cases was a JPY 4 billion negative impact on profits. And although infections are spiking again in Japan, we expect an ongoing recovery in our COVID-impacted businesses. Please turn to the next page.

有2頁。第一頁概述了 COVID 恢復的步伐。左圖顯示了 3 家受 COVID 影響的企業的部門利潤。請看中間的同比對比圖。與疫情前相比，第一季度的利潤貢獻較低，但您可以看到過去幾年的收益穩步回升。請注意，圖表中包含的[標誌]，包括與最新病例激增相關的居家隔離患者在內的 COVID 住院支出的增加對利潤產生了 40 億日元的負面影響。儘管日本的感染率再次飆升，但我們預計受 COVID 影響的業務將持續復甦。請翻到下一頁。

This slide outlines how various macro changes may or may not impact ORIX. ORIX control for market risk such as interest rates and ForEx risk through ALM. For ForEx and interest rates, I've explained at previous earnings calls and the direct impact is limited. And you can see the sensitivities for both outlined in this page. We will need to continue to carefully watch for any sudden market changes, such as the rapid fluctuations in the U.S. interest rates and the impact on our business.

這張幻燈片概述了各種宏觀變化可能會或可能不會影響歐力士的情況。歐力士通過ALM控制利率、外匯風險等市場風險。對於外彙和利率，我在之前的財報電話會議上已經解釋過，直接影響是有限的。您可以看到此頁面中列出的兩者的敏感性。我們需要繼續密切關注任何突然的市場變化，例如美國利率的快速波動以及對我們業務的影響。

Regarding credit risk, we regularly monitor all large borrowers, both within Japan and overseas and have seen no finance increase in either nonperforming loans or provisions for doubtful receivables and the probable loan losses. And none of the businesses have been -- have seen significant trouble in any business line. And therefore, the impairments have not increased. We will continue to carefully monitor risk and any possible new investments.

關於信用風險，我們定期監控日本國內外的所有大型借款人，並沒有發現不良貸款或可疑應收賬款準備金和可能的貸款損失的融資增加。並且沒有一家企業在任何業務線中都遇到過重大麻煩。因此，減值並沒有增加。我們將繼續仔細監控風險和任何可能的新投資。

Finally, I'd like to speak about inflation. We are strengthening profitability management for individual development projects in areas where accelerating inflation is expected to increase costs. Meanwhile, for example, we can expect larger investment gains owing to higher prices or for physical assets, such as used cars and ships. Higher electricity prices also have some positive aspects as they lead to larger power generating profits. We hope to carefully control costs, so that in the extent possible, we can turn this into a positive factor for ORIX's profits.

最後，我想談談通貨膨脹。我們正在加強對通脹加速預計會增加成本的地區的個別開發項目的盈利管理。同時，例如，由於價格上漲或二手汽車和船舶等實物資產，我們可以預期更大的投資收益。更高的電價也有一些積極的方面，因為它們會帶來更大的發電利潤。我們希望謹慎控製成本，盡可能地把它變成歐力士盈利的積極因素。

So that's all about the slides. And again, I'd like to emphasize that for the fiscal year ending March FY '23, it's likely to be a year, where economic uncertainties will continue on a global scale. We will continue to lay the groundwork for achieving both profit growth and the medium-term net income target of JPY 440 billion.

這就是幻燈片的全部內容。我想再次強調，對於截至 23 財年 3 月的財政年度，這很可能是全球範圍內經濟不確定性持續存在的一年。我們將繼續為實現利潤增長和 4,400 億日元的中期淨利潤目標奠定基礎。

As I outlined in the start of my remarks, we are receiving a large number of inquiries into new investment projects. Although the business climate still warrants some careful approach, we will continue to aim to proactively take advantage of investment opportunities. And that is the end of my comments. Thank you for your kind attention.

正如我在發言開始時概述的那樣，我們收到了大量關於新投資項目的詢問。儘管商業環境仍需要謹慎對待，但我們將繼續致力於積極利用投資機會。我的評論到此結束。感謝您的關注。

Thank you, Mr. Yano. (Operator Instructions) From Mizuho Securities, we have Mr. Sato to ask the first question.

謝謝矢野先生。 （操作員說明）瑞穗證券，我們請佐藤先生問第一個問題。

Thank you very much, Mr. Yano. So I have -- well, I have to limit my question to just one. So with regard to the profit this time around, if I could confirm your way of thinking, your takeaway. So 3 months ago, you have come out with a profit growth perspective for the mid- to long-term, and that appears on Page 35 this time in the deck. And the increase of the profit and also the trend you do not commit to, I understand. But I think overall, the trend is flat, which was indicated by yourself. But on the other hand, the United States and also in Western countries, such as in Europe, I think you are at the timing, whereby you may need to remain to be kind of cautious. But do you accept the profit to decline because it doesn't mean to say that it is at the detriment of the dividend. So therefore, it was JPY 440 billion, you would still continue to, of course, exert your effort. So is that the understanding and the idea of the management?

非常感謝矢野先生。所以我有——嗯，我必須將我的問題限制在一個問題上。所以關於這次的利潤，如果我能確認你的思維方式，你的外賣。所以 3 個月前，你提出了中長期利潤增長的觀點，這次出現在第 35 頁。利潤的增加以及你不承諾的趨勢，我理解。但我認為總體而言，趨勢是平的，這是你自己所表明的。但另一方面，美國和西方國家，比如歐洲，我認為你正處於這個時機，你可能需要保持謹慎。但是您是否接受利潤下降，因為這並不意味著它會損害股息。所以，4400億日元，當然還要繼續努力。這就是管理層的理解和理念嗎？

Well, thank you for the question. To be honest with you, so I was pretty sure that you would be asking such a question. As a matter of fact, at this point in time, we have not yet decided on anything. So when we first set our target, U.S. is weaker and also at our life insurance, there was quite a bit of quasi hospitalization payout the claims, which was unexpected.

嗯，謝謝你的問題。老實說，我很確定你會問這樣的問題。事實上，在這個時間點上，我們還沒有做出任何決定。因此，當我們第一次設定目標時，美國較弱，而且在我們的人壽保險方面，有相當多的準住院支付理賠，這是出乎意料的。

So this is why, as compared to our initial plan, it had turned for the negative, whereas like Aircraft, for example, is up on the positive side. It was better than we have expected initially. So it doesn't mean to say that we're going to be abandoning our idea to continue to increase the profit. For sure, we have to remain to be cautious. And in some cases, there will be more opportunities for a new investment to be made.

所以這就是為什麼與我們最初的計劃相比，它已經轉向負面，而像飛機一樣，例如，是正面的。這比我們最初預期的要好。因此，這並不意味著我們將放棄繼續增加利潤的想法。當然，我們必須保持謹慎。在某些情況下，會有更多的機會進行新的投資。

So JPY 440 billion to be achieved in 2 years' time, of course, remains to be unchanged for sure. So how much of this target can be achieved within this fiscal period by ways of generating the profit. And of course, for sure, we would like to be increasing the profit. So I'm sorry, but this is all I can share at this point in time. So we would like to, of course, strike the right balance in other words.

所以 2 年內要實現的 4,400 億日元當然是沒有變化的。那麼這個目標有多少可以通過產生利潤的方式在這個財政期間內實現。當然，當然，我們希望增加利潤。所以我很抱歉，但這是我目前可以分享的全部內容。因此，換句話說，我們當然希望取得適當的平衡。

Next question Sakamaki-san from Nomura Securities.

下一個問題來自野村證券的坂卷先生。

This is Sakamaki. I have a question about this fiscal year's exit. From the second quarter and onwards, I understand there's going to be a solid implementation. But in which specific areas are you talking about selling, getting gains?

這是坂木。我有一個關於本財政年度退出的問題。從第二季度起，我知道會有一個堅實的實施。但是，您在哪些特定領域談論銷售，獲得收益？

Thank you. We have this original plan, and I'm sure that you have certain expectations that we will be implementing those. For Real Estate for the first quarter, we have achieved some, and we will be executing some in the coming months. So PE exits, we will be doing some of them. For example, in the concession PE Investment segment. And in the United States, the situation will not stay the same. So we want to do this to some extent. But at this point in time, I cannot really say how far we will go, how much share this will accumulate. But we did have some planned from the beginning, so we want to do those. And segment-wise, those ones that I mentioned will be the main ones. And I don't know if this is going to be this fiscal year or not, but we will be selling things after it reaches -- they reach the peak. So you may find some of those exits as well. And in the first quarter, we sold a ship, 2 ships, and we expect some of those happen again in the near future. That's all. Thank you.

謝謝你。我們有這個最初的計劃，我相信你對我們將實施這些計劃有一定的期望。對於第一季度的房地產，我們已經取得了一些成就，我們將在未來幾個月內執行一些。所以PE退出，我們將做其中的一些。例如，在特許權 PE 投資領域。而在美國，情況不會一成不變。所以我們想在某種程度上做到這一點。但在這個時間點上，我真的不能說我們會走多遠，會積累多少份額。但我們確實從一開始就有一些計劃，所以我們想做這些。在細分方面，我提到的那些將是主要的。而且我不知道這是否會是本財政年度，但我們將在它達到之後出售東西 - 它們達到頂峰。因此，您也可能會找到其中一些出口。在第一季度，我們售出了一艘船，兩艘船，我們預計其中一些會在不久的將來再次發生。就這樣。謝謝你。

Just to clarify, completed 3 months ago, your ambition, your appetite for exit does not -- has not really changed. Is that correct? So you will continue to sell the ones that you had already in the plan from the beginning.

只是澄清一下，在 3 個月前完成，你的野心，你的退出慾望並沒有 - 並沒有真正改變。那是對的嗎？因此，您將繼續銷售從一開始就已經在計劃中的那些。

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

So from Daiwa Securities, we have Mr. Watanabe.

所以來自大和證券，我們有渡邊先生。

Watanabe is my name, from Daiwa Securities. So with regard to the guidance for FY '22, I'm sorry, I may be asking the same question again. But at the time of the second quarter, would you be disclosing the information. And as to the capital policy, is there -- very often you have been, of course, coming with the revision of the framework for capital policy. Would that happen in the second quarter, just like the prior years?

渡邊是我的名字，來自大和證券。因此，關於 22 財年的指導，對不起，我可能會再次問同樣的問題。但是在第二季度的時候，你會披露這些信息嗎？至於資本政策，是否存在 - 當然，您經常會修改資本政策框架。就像前幾年一樣，這會在第二季度發生嗎？

Well, I'm sorry, but I think I would just mumble because there is nothing that has been decided yet. In the second quarter, any kind of major announcement being made as a result of new major movements there could be, of course, if there was to be a major kind of movement, but there -- nothing that has been decided so far at this moment in time. So I will not be able to give you or share with you any kind of notice as to such an announcement plan to be made in the second quarter. So please continue to watch over the development of our businesses, and we would like to make a decision at that point in time. Sorry about this. This is all I can say at this point in time.

好吧，我很抱歉，但我想我只會喃喃自語，因為還沒有任何決定。在第二季度，由於新的重大運動而發布的任何類型的重大公告當然都可能發生，如果要進行重大運動的話，但是到目前為止，目前還沒有任何決定這一刻。因此，對於將在第二季度發布的此類公告計劃，我將無法向您提供或與您分享任何形式的通知。所以請繼續關注我們業務的發展，我們希望在那個時候做出決定。為此表示歉意。這就是我目前所能說的。

So here in your comment, is it about the financial results? Or is it about the capital policy?

所以在你的評論中，是關於財務結果嗎？還是與資本政策有關？

Well, from that perspective, for sure, that is to do with our financial results, business performance in other words. And with regard to capital policy, when you say framework, you mean by our basic stance or our idea to the capital policy, are we to make any changes? Or is there going to be additional kind of announcement for the share buyback.

嗯，從這個角度來看，當然，這與我們的財務業績，換句話說就是業務績效有關。而關於資本政策，當你說框架時，你的意思是我們的基本立場或我們對資本政策的想法，我們是否會做出改變？或者是否會有額外的股票回購公告。

Both. Well, or the latter, yes, the buyback and also the payout ratio.

兩個都。好吧，或者後者，是的，回購和支付比率。

So the way of thinking to the capital policy, in fact, it remains to be unchanged. So there is not going to be any major change to the framework, so to speak. It goes without saying, however, it doesn't mean to say that we do not intend to change anything. But the basic framework is going to be maintained throughout the year. If there was to be any kind of additional kind of actions to be taken, we can only announce at the time when we feel the need to. I'm sorry to go back to what I have explained. So there's nothing that I can share at this point in time in any case.

所以對資本政策的思考方式，其實還是沒變。因此，可以這麼說，框架不會有任何重大變化。不言而喻，但這並不意味著我們不打算改變任何事情。但基本框架將全年保持不變。如果要採取任何其他類型的行動，我們只能在我們認為需要時宣布。我很抱歉回到我已經解釋過的內容。因此，無論如何，目前我無法分享任何內容。

SMBC Nikko, Muraki-san.

SMBC 日光，村木先生。

This is Muraki, SMBC Nikko. Unexpected downside, you mentioned some -- and what do you think will happen after the second quarter. So for example, life insurance, you're talking about optimization payouts and also ex-U.S.A. And the way you have written this in terms of exits, there was a growth in the second quarter, but real estate earnings is coming down. Is this temporary? So the downside factors in the first quarter, what will happen to them from the second quarter and beyond? That's my question.

我是村木，SMBC 日光。出乎意料的不利因素，你提到了一些——你認為第二季度之後會發生什麼。例如，人壽保險，您談論的是優化支出以及美國以外的保險。按照您在退出方面的寫作方式，第二季度有所增長，但房地產收益正在下降。這是暫時的嗎？那麼第一季度的不利因素，從第二季度及以後會發生什麼？那是我的問題。

With regard to life insurance, the hospitalization payout, we did not really expect it to grow this much. And this is more than JPY 4 billion downside. But for Insurance, it was actually a bigger upside than this. And we are basically filling this with the management profit. And we want to increase this profit and try to cover this gap in the second quarter and beyond. But with a new wave, new surge, a spike in the number of infections, we have to watch what'll happen to these numbers. Unless the government changes the positioning of COVID-19 infections, we have to be ready to implement some payouts to some extent. And hopefully, with the investment management within life insurance, we can cover to some extent. And also, we can cover this with other businesses as well.

關於人壽保險，住院費用，我們真的沒想到它會增長這麼多。這是超過 40 億日元的下行空間。但對於保險來說，這實際上是比這更大的好處。我們基本上是用管理利潤來填充它。我們希望增加這一利潤，並試圖在第二季度及以後彌補這一差距。但是隨著新一波、新的激增、感染人數的激增，我們必須觀察這些數字會發生什麼。除非政府改變 COVID-19 感染的定位，否則我們必須準備好在某種程度上實施一些支出。希望通過人壽保險中的投資管理，我們可以在一定程度上覆蓋。而且，我們也可以通過其他業務來解決這個問題。

Now with regard to the United States, JPY 6 billion times 4, I don't think this is going to end up. In other words, we expect some recovery of the investment, for example, we expect some capital gains. And as for Real Estate, our agency purchase did not progress as much as we had expected. That is a big factor. And we believe that there's going to be some degree of recovery -- and to be quite honest, how much of a recovery you will see in the United States to the level of last year that is going to be a big theme for us.

現在關於美國，60 億日元乘以 4，我認為這不會結束。換句話說，我們預計投資會有所回升，例如，我們預計會有一些資本收益。至於房地產，我們的代理購買並沒有我們預期的那麼快。這是一個很大的因素。我們相信會有一定程度的複蘇——老實說，你會在美國看到多少復甦到去年的水平，這對我們來說將是一個重要的主題。

And in that sense, what is the expectation for each of the business?

從這個意義上說，對每項業務的期望是什麼？

We are looking at the details right now. And we want to make sure that each of those will get realized one by one. So at this point in time, we cannot really communicate to you to what extent we will be able to do those. But from the second quarter and beyond, we want to see some level of recovery. I can only talk about the quantitative aspect, and that's all I can share, but we expect some exits, and that is how we're going to deal with the situation. I hope that answers your question.

我們現在正在查看細節。我們希望確保每一項都能一一實現。因此，在這個時間點上，我們無法真正與您交流我們能夠做到什麼程度。但從第二季度及以後，我們希望看到一定程度的複蘇。我只能談論數量方面，這就是我可以分享的全部內容，但我們預計會有一些退出，這就是我們將如何處理這種情況。我希望這能回答你的問題。

So COVID-19 insurance for the sixth wave, the recent peak.

因此，第六波 COVID-19 保險，即最近的高峰。

So it was accounted for reflected in the numbers up until June. And since July, the numbers have settled down. Well, we still have some periods. But looking at the past result, there is basically a 3 month delay for the timing of payment from our side. So after, for example, 3 months from the sixth wave so-called, we had to do a payout. So we believe it will be the same pattern for the seventh wave, 3 months later. So in July, yes, it's true that the number declined somewhat.

因此，直到 6 月，它都反映在數字中。自 7 月以來，這些數字已經穩定下來。好吧，我們還有一些時期。但是從過去的結果來看，我們這邊的付款時間基本上有3個月的延遲。因此，例如，在所謂的第六波浪潮之後的 3 個月之後，我們必須進行支付。因此，我們相信 3 個月後的第七波浪潮將是相同的模式。所以在 7 月，是的，這個數字確實有所下降。

So the next question is from Natsumu Tsujino, UFJ Morgan Stanley.

所以下一個問題來自 UFJ 摩根士丹利的 Natsumu Tsujino。

First of all, with regard to the aircraft leasing business, Aircraft and Ships, I know that you have shared the Avolon's result, which is a negative. It is in negative, right. And Avolon itself -- in February, I know that there is 1 month delay. But this time, the numbers that are to be incorporated was positive. So this negative number that we see, is it attributable to some kind of accounting treatment at the headquarter level? Or going forward, is this condition likely to persist for the quarters to come. So you see if you could be so kind enough to answer to the question, especially with regard to U.S.

首先，關於飛機租賃業務，飛機和船舶，我知道你分享了Avolon的結果，這是一個否定的結果。它是否定的，對。還有 Avolon 本身——在 2 月份，我知道有 1 個月的延遲。但這一次，要合併的數字是正數。那麼我們看到的這個負數，是否歸因於總部層面的某種會計處理？或者展望未來，這種情況是否可能在未來幾個季度持續存在。所以你看看你是否能這麼好心地回答這個問題，尤其是關於美國的問題。

So Avolon, we do invest in Avolon. So therefore, the equity cost internally, so we do charge it at the headquarter level. So for sure, that has been reflected. And of course, there is a time lag by 1 month. So there is a gap because of this. And that is the major reason for the difference.

所以Avolon，我們確實投資了Avolon。因此，內部的股權成本，所以我們確實在總部層面收取。所以可以肯定的是，這已經反映出來。當然，還有 1 個月的時滯。因此，存在差距。這就是造成差異的主要原因。

And with regard to the equity cost, is it higher than before just as year-over-year or Q-on-Q?

至於股權成本，是同比還是環比高？

Well, the dollar cost it is. So therefore, it is charged on the basis of the number going up, in other words.

好吧，美元成本就是這樣。因此，換句話說，它是根據增加的數量收費的。

So this condition is likely to persist.

所以這種情況很可能會持續下去。

Well, that portion is going to be subtracted. But although we have made a mention of the somewhere else in the deck, but the dollar interest rate hike in fact, will bring about some influence. And -- but it is almost like plus/minus 0, it offsets basically. But of course, the secondary effect is different, some other matter. So dollar, if it goes up by 1%, for example, I think from the time when we explained to you, the mix, in fact, is slightly different from the last time, but it is almost 0 in terms of the impact.

好吧，那部分將被減去。但是雖然我們在甲板上的其他地方提到了，但美元加息實際上會帶來一些影響。而且——但它幾乎就像加/減 0，它基本上是抵消的。但當然，次要效果不同，另當別論。所以美元，比如說漲1%，我想從我們給大家解釋的時候開始，其實和上次有點不一樣，但是影響幾乎是0。

And with regard to the U.S., according to the segment P&L, the service income, in fact, has been increasing, right? And the mortgage-related businesses in fact is slower. But if you could be so kind enough to explain in accordance with the P&L.

而就美國而言，根據損益表，服務收入實際上一直在增加，對吧？而抵押貸款相關的業務實際上速度較慢。但是如果你能這麼好心地按照損益表來解釋的話。

Well, from that perspective, let me go through some of the paperwork, to be precise. I'm sorry about this. You see the chart of account does not match against our explanation. The reason why the servicing income increase is because of (inaudible) the lower cost. So it is the housing loan securitization for lower-income bracket people. And that has increased as a matter of fact. And as I had explained earlier -- so the real estate loans sales in fact, had declined and also PE Investment gains on sales has declined, and this has unfortunately brought about some negatives.

好吧，從這個角度來看，讓我仔細閱讀一些文書工作，確切地說。我很抱歉這件事。您會看到會計科目表與我們的解釋不符。服務收入增加的原因是（聽不清）較低的成本。因此，這是針對低收入人群的住房貸款證券化。事實上，這已經增加了。正如我之前解釋的那樣，房地產貸款銷售實際上已經下降，PE 投資的銷售收益也下降了，不幸的是，這帶來了一些負面影響。

So if you -- I think you are referring to the P&L, but you see the charter accounts does not reflect the real state of the affairs. I'm sorry, there is a mismatch. I'm sorry about this.

因此，如果您-- 我認為您指的是損益表，但您看到章程賬戶並不能反映事務的真實狀態。對不起，有一個不匹配。我很抱歉這件事。

And finally, with regard to Avolon and the Greenko, any contribution that you can share with us?

最後，關於 Avolon 和 Greenko，您有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎？

Well, as we have been explaining from previously, Greenko as well as Lument, we had acquired a new project. So therefore, we will now be able to enjoy the major kind of contribution. And of course, it will be affected by seasonal impact as well as factors. And also, I have made a mention of this (inaudible) energy price, in fact, has been soaring and also electricity cost is soaring too. So there has been some positive factors that have impacted in a positive manner.

好吧，正如我們之前解釋過的，Greenko 和 Lument，我們已經獲得了一個新項目。因此，我們現在將能夠享受主要的貢獻。當然，它會受到季節性影響以及因素的影響。而且，我已經提到了這個（聽不清）能源價格，事實上，它一直在飆升，電費也在飆升。因此，有一些積極的因素以積極的方式產生了影響。

So the electricity sales in fact is a kind of deal calculation interpretation.

所以售電實際上是一種交易計算的解釋。

BofA Securities, Sasaki-san.

美國銀行證券，佐佐木先生。

Mr. Sasaki from Bank of America. I had a question about the United States. In the first quarter, you planned some exits. And I understand that some of them have postponed to the second quarter. And the deal execution, is it quite solid for the second quarter? Or is it just your one-sided expectation? I want to know which way it is. And also some products in the United States can generate more profit if the interest rate goes up. So I think you explained before that even if the rate goes down or up, that you can still generate profit. So what are the products that can benefit from interest rate hike? And how much contribution did those products make? That's just one question for the United States.

美國銀行的佐佐木先生。我有一個關於美國的問題。在第一季度，您計劃了一些退出。我知道其中一些已經推遲到第二季度。第二季度的交易執行情況是否相當穩固？還是只是你的片面期望？我想知道它是哪種方式。而且美國的一些產品如果利率上升，可以產生更多的利潤。所以我想你之前解釋過，即使利率下降或上升，你仍然可以產生利潤。那麼有哪些產品可以從加息中受益呢？這些產品做出了多少貢獻？這只是美國的一個問題。

I see. The first question was not about the interest rate.

我懂了。第一個問題與利率無關。

Yes, deals.

是的，優惠。

In the first quarter, we wanted to complete some of the exits and we found it a little bit regrettable, frustrating. So we wrote it, but it's not such a big amount, a big size, and it was executed in July. And the several tens of millions level profit projects, we have a multiple of those. So the question is when we can execute those. But these are quite solid. And we want to make sure that we can execute them. So that's the current situation about the capital gain related matters. As far as the interest rate, generally speaking, it's positive for us because generally speaking, for the financial services, in general, it's positive. And also outside of the United States, we have some things as well. As I have explained to you earlier, ORIX life insurance, the interest rate hike advantage is really enjoyed by them. So the investment management return is increasing. This is definitely the benefit of interest rate hike. Other than that, Japanese yen, unfortunately, has not really gone up yet. But once we see strong yen lease and loan within Japan would be more possible for us. I think that's about it.

第一季度，我們想完成一些退出，我們發現它有點遺憾，令人沮喪。所以我們寫了它，但它並沒有那麼大的數量，很大的尺寸，並且它是在7月份執行的。而幾千萬級別的盈利項目，我們有好幾倍。所以問題是我們什麼時候可以執行這些。但這些都相當紮實。我們要確保我們可以執行它們。以上就是資本收益相關事宜的現狀。至於利率，一般來說，對我們來說是積極的，因為一般來說，對於金融服務來說，一般來說，它是積極的。在美國之外，我們也有一些東西。正如我之前向您解釋過的，歐力士人壽保險，加息的優勢是他們非常享受的。所以投資管理的回報在增加。這絕對是加息的好處。除此之外，不幸的是，日元還沒有真正升值。但是一旦我們看到日本國內的日元租賃和貸款對我們來說將更有可能。我想就是這樣。

As far as the United States is concerned, I'm not talking about the direct impact being positive.

就美國而言，我並不是說直接影響是積極的。

I'm sorry, maybe the way I asked the question was not very clear.

對不起，也許我問問題的方式不是很清楚。

Can you please repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

For ORIX USA with the interest rate hike, you have a position that you can benefit from. So it doesn't really matter if the interest rate goes up or down, that was explanation from the past. So I was asking which specific products will benefit from interest hike.

對於歐力士美國加息，您有一個可以從中受益的頭寸。所以利率上升或下降並不重要，這是過去的解釋。所以我在問哪些特定產品將從加息中受益。

Did we mention that before.

我們之前提到過嗎。

I remember you're talking about that. It could be my mistake, misunderstanding in which case, please correct me.

我記得你在說這個。這可能是我的錯誤，在這種情況下誤解，請糾正我。

Just a moment, please? I am sorry, but at this point in time I need to apologize that -- did I say that? If I did, I have to apologize. That's all we can say right now.

請稍等一下？我很抱歉，但在這個時候我需要道歉——我說過了嗎？如果我這樣做了，我必須道歉。這就是我們現在能說的。

So the next person is from UBS Securities, Okada-san.

所以下一個人是來自瑞銀證券的岡田先生。

I am Okada from UBS Securities. So with regard to new investments, I have some questions. So the first has been shown on Page 2, the new investment universe, the expansion. So you talked about the various different businesses and prices. There are more opportunities for you to make a new investment in. Is there any kind of a perspective that you have on the new investments that can be made? And the second question, previously, you have talked about the pipeline of PE Investment. I think there was a disclosure of JPY 400 billion worth of pipeline. So I suppose if there was to be any update on these major potential investment in the pipeline.

我是瑞銀證券的岡田。所以關於新的投資，我有一些問題。因此，第 2 頁顯示了第一個，即新的投資領域，即擴張。所以你談到了各種不同的業務和價格。您有更多機會進行新的投資。您對可以進行的新投資有什麼看法嗎？第二個問題，之前你講過PE投資的管道。我認為披露了價值 4000 億日元的管道。所以我想如果有任何關於管道中這些主要潛在投資的更新。

Well, I would find it very difficult to share any specific information with regard to new investment because ORIX, as you know, I think we are pretty kind of well known. I think information has disseminated as to ORIX is quite forthcoming in terms of making a new investment. And this is why we are receiving many inquiries. So especially in a certain zone, we wanted to make an investment. But then, of course, there has been some inquiries being made in some other areas other than what we had expected. So that is where we are. And as I had shared in my presentation, and it comes from different geography and also the size and different types of businesses. That's what I was trying to explain in the presentation.

好吧，我發現很難分享有關新投資的任何具體信息，因為正如你所知，歐力士我認為我們非常有名。我認為有關歐力士在進行新投資方面的信息已經傳播。這就是我們收到許多詢問的原因。所以特別是在某個區域，我們想進行投資。但是，當然，在我們預期之外的其他一些領域進行了一些調查。這就是我們所處的位置。正如我在演講中所分享的那樣，它來自不同的地理位置、規模和不同類型的企業。這就是我試圖在演示文稿中解釋的內容。

As a matter of fact, there, of course, the investments included, and it is not just limited to the PE investments, but also at the same time, additional investment to be made in -- I mean, by in addition to our existing line of businesses. So we would carefully evaluate and if necessary, we will be carrying out due diligence. And there are some deals that -- of which the due diligence is underway, and there are some sizable deals as well included. I'm sorry that I will not be able to go into the specificities and the details of the possible investment. But for sure, I think opportunity is there. And I think there are more opportunities than before. So we would like to be very selective in making the new investment.

事實上，投資當然包括在內，而且不僅限於PE投資，同時還有額外的投資——我的意思是，除了我們現有的業務線。因此，我們會仔細評估，如有必要，我們將進行盡職調查。還有一些交易 - 其中盡職調查正在進行中，並且還包括一些相當大的交易。很抱歉，我無法詳細說明可能的投資的具體情況和細節。但可以肯定的是，我認為機會就在那裡。而且我認為有比以前更多的機會。因此，我們希望在進行新投資時非常有選擇性。

I'm very sorry that I think my answer is pretty unrigorous of course. I would of course -- I would very much like to, of course, disclose much more information, but I have to refrain from telling you anything more.

很抱歉，我認為我的回答當然很不嚴謹。我當然會——當然，我非常想透露更多信息，但我必須避免告訴你更多信息。

Citigroup Securities, Niwa-san.

花旗證券，丹羽山。

This is Niwa from Citi. About the credit loss, do you think that the current level will continue for the full year? And is it going to push up the profit? And I understand that the environment is uncertain, but do we have to account for many variable factors or for a specific asset class, should we expect some risks? What is the risk scenario?

這是花旗的丹羽。關於信用損失，您認為目前的水平會持續到全年嗎？它會推高利潤嗎？而且我知道環境是不確定的，但我們是否必須考慮許多可變因素或特定資產類別，我們是否應該預期一些風險？風險情景是什麼？

Thank you for your question. (inaudible) we do not believe that the credit loss would increase. To be quite honest, credit losses often happen in a lagged manner. So from my experience, we can tell, it's too late if we try to react to that once we see it. So if we see this fiscal year that would be a very bad thing, but if we don't implement the (inaudible) right now, next year we'll suffer. So for this fiscal year, we feel quite confident that there should be no problem.

謝謝你的問題。 （聽不清）我們認為信用損失不會增加。老實說，信用損失通常以滯後的方式發生。因此，根據我的經驗，我們可以看出，一旦我們看到它就試圖對此做出反應已經為時已晚。因此，如果我們看到這個財政年度將是一件非常糟糕的事情，但如果我們現在不實施（聽不清），明年我們將遭受損失。所以對於這個財政年度，我們很有信心，應該沒有問題。

Once the recession starts, we want to make sure that the credit loss will not increase in the next period. So we will monitor more closely and be more careful for the new project so that we don't increase the credit loss for the next fiscal year. That's what we do. So for this fiscal year, all I can say is that it's going to be fine. But we are already implementing measures for the next fiscal year because there may be concerns. And this is not limited to Japan only. This is a global matter.

一旦經濟衰退開始，我們要確保信用損失在下一個時期不會增加。因此，我們將更密切地監控新項目，更加小心，以免增加下一財年的信用損失。這就是我們所做的。所以對於這個財政年度，我只能說一切都會好起來的。但我們已經在實施下一財年的措施，因為可能存在擔憂。這不僅限於日本。這是一個全球性的問題。

So the next question is from JPMorgan, Otsuka-san.

所以下一個問題來自摩根大通，大塚先生。

So I'm very sorry that my way of asking maybe a little kind of awkward. So Yano-san and the top management your idea, how has it evolved over time? Personally speaking, U.S. going forward, it looks as if that there is a concern over the recession, the economy may slow down. I'm sure you have started to feel that 3 months ago. And also this payout of COVID-19, yes, I can understand that it was slightly unexpected. But the U.S., the slow down of economy, I suppose it was something that you had already expected. So having seen the results being generated from the first quarter, what was different from your initial expectations? So where you saw that your expectation was a little lenient than what it should be? And also in the MBS environment, in fact, has changed more than you had expected. So if you could be so kind enough to share any changes.

所以我很抱歉我的提問方式可能有點尷尬。那麼矢野先生和高層管理人員的想法，隨著時間的推移，它是如何演變的？就個人而言，美國未來似乎擔心經濟衰退，經濟可能會放緩。我敢肯定，你在 3 個月前就開始有這種感覺了。還有這筆 COVID-19 的支出，是的，我可以理解這有點出乎意料。但是美國，經濟放緩，我想這是你已經預料到的。那麼在看到第一季度產生的結果後，與您最初的預期有何不同？那麼，您在哪裡看到您的期望比應有的要寬鬆一些？而且在 MBS 環境中，實際上已經發生了超出您預期的變化。因此，如果您能如此友好地分享任何更改。

So the recession may start to take place. And this is why we need to remain to be pretty careful and cautious and also to continue to monitor, especially for the new investment, which has already started back in the fourth quarter in any case. And -- but as we started the new year, the PE exit, in fact, was not the estimates as we had expected and as you had said, in the MBS part, there was a little kind of confusion. And so therefore, we can now proceed with the sales. So MBS in fact, was a little kind of chaotic. And so therefore, it has given us the impact in a negative way, which was unexpected, I have to admit. So we're trying to rebuild our business, so to speak. That's where we are at. I'm sorry to repeat myself, but MBS, the control of MBS, but we did not do a very good job.

因此，衰退可能開始發生。這就是為什麼我們需要保持非常謹慎和謹慎，並繼續監控，特別是對於新投資，無論如何它已經在第四季度開始了。而且 - 但當我們開始新的一年時，PE 退出實際上並不是我們預期的估計，正如你所說，在 MBS 部分，有一點混亂。因此，我們現在可以繼續銷售。所以MBS實際上有點混亂。因此，它以負面的方式給我們帶來了影響，我不得不承認，這是出乎意料的。所以我們正在努力重建我們的業務，可以這麼說。這就是我們所處的位置。我很抱歉重複自己，但是MBS，MBS的控制，我們卻沒有做得很好。

And with regard to PE investment, though -- I'm sorry, to repeating myself again, but it doesn't mean to say that there are no opportunities from here down the road. Rather, we would like to speed up and make further investments in private equity. And the credit is not as bad as a -- by credit I mean by -- so the credit on the business line, that is. And in other words, the credit expansion to the corporates, there is no major concern as such at this point in time. And the Real Estate (inaudible) is remaining to be pretty solid. So therefore, I'm sure we can continue to generate some kind of profit. So all in all, I'm sorry to be very brief, that's where we are. As a matter of fact, with regard to the United States, more than before, communication with U.S. in fact, has been more frequent and closer and inclusive of the top management message provision. And so the corporate departments' communication, in fact, has been increasing. And so therefore, we will be able to watch over the development of our business lines more closely and more frequently in the United States.

關於私募股權投資，雖然 - 對不起，我再說一遍，但這並不意味著從這裡開始沒有機會。相反，我們希望加快並進一步投資私募股權。並且信用並不像 - 我的意思是信用 - 所以在業務線上的信用，就是這樣。換句話說，對企業的信貸擴張，目前還沒有什麼大問題。房地產（聽不清）仍然相當穩固。因此，我確信我們可以繼續產生某種利潤。所以總而言之，我很抱歉非常簡短，這就是我們的情況。事實上，就美國而言，與美國的交流實際上比以往更加頻繁、密切和包容，包括高層管理信息的規定。因此，企業部門的溝通，實際上一直在增加。因此，我們將能夠更密切、更頻繁地關注我們在美國的業務線的發展。

Well, if I could quickly kind of confirm what you have just said. So your company the exit and the sales on gains, gains on sales that you were expecting. I'm sure you are imagining some kind of pricing and the timing. So it's not that the price has fallen quite sharply. No. No. That is not the case.

好吧，如果我能快速確認你剛才所說的話。因此，您的公司退出和銷售收益，您所期望的銷售收益。我敢肯定，您正在想像某種定價和時機。因此，並不是價格大幅下跌。不，不，事實並非如此。

Well, there is no kind of sharp decline in the price that we were expecting to sell the PE or whatever the investment. And -- but however, there is a certain slowdown for sure. And so therefore, we have some kind of anticipation that we may not be able to execute all the deals that we were expecting to. That's what -- that's where we are.

好吧，我們期望出售 PE 或任何投資的價格並沒有急劇下降。而且 - 但是，肯定會有一定的放緩。因此，我們有某種預期，我們可能無法執行我們期望的所有交易。就是這樣——這就是我們所處的位置。

(Operator Instructions) Since we see no further questions, we would like to close the Q&A and ask Mr. Yano for closing comments.

（操作員說明）由於我們沒有進一步的問題，我們想結束問答並請矢野先生結束評論。

Thank you very much indeed for joining us today. The environment keeps changing, and there are certain things that we could not do exactly as we had planned, but we will continue to monitor the situation and grow what we can and respond to these changes. So please continue to watch us. And we are still receiving questions for anything that you have missed today. So please continue to ask questions as well. And thank you.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。環境在不斷變化，有些事情我們無法完全按照我們的計劃做，但我們將繼續監控情況，盡我們所能，應對這些變化。所以請繼續關注我們。我們仍然收到有關您今天錯過的任何問題的問題。所以也請繼續提問。謝謝你。

With this, we'd like to conclude the telephone for ORIX's business performance. Thank you very much for participating.

至此，歐力士的經營業績電話就結束了。非常感謝您的參與。