Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Invesco Mortgage Capital third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加景順抵押貸款資本公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now I would like to turn the call over to Greg Seals in Investor Relations, Mr. Seals, you may begin the call.

再次提醒，本次通話正在錄音。現在我把電話交給投資者關係部的格雷格·西爾斯先生，西爾斯先生，您可以開始通話了。

Thanks, operator, and to all of you joining us on Invesco Mortgage Capital's quarterly earnings call. In addition to today's press release, we have provided a presentation that covers the topics we plan to address today.

謝謝接線員，也感謝各位參加景順抵押貸款資本公司季度收益電話會議。除了今天的新聞稿之外，我們還提供了一份演示文稿，其中涵蓋了我們今天計劃討論的主題。

The press release and presentation are available on our website, invescomortgagecapital.com. This information can be found by going to the Investor Relations section of the website. Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on slide 2 of the presentation regarding the statements and measures as well as the appendix for the appropriate reconciliations to GAAP.

新聞稿和簡報可在我們的網站invescomortgagecapital.com上查閱。您可以在網站的「投資者關係」部分找到這些資訊。我們今天的報告將包含前瞻性陳述和某些非GAAP財務指標。請查閱簡報第 2 頁中關於報表和指標的揭露信息，以及附錄中關於與 GAAP 的適當調節表。

Finally, Invesco Mortgage Capital is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. The only authorized webcasts are located on our website. Again, welcome, and thank you for joining us today.

最後，景順抵押貸款資本公司不負責，也不編輯或保證第三方提供的獲利電話會議記錄的準確性。唯一授權的網路直播位於我們的網站上。再次歡迎您，感謝您今天加入我們。

I'll now turn the call over to Invesco Mortgage Capital's CEO, John Anzalone.

現在我將把電話交給景順抵押貸款資本公司的執行長約翰·安札隆。

Good morning, and welcome to Invesco Mortgage Capital's Third Quarter Earnings Call. I'll provide some brief comments before turning the call over to our Chief Investment Officer, Brian Norris, to discuss our portfolio in more detail. Also joining us on the call this morning for Q&A is our President, Kevin Collins, our COO, Dave Lyle; and our CFO, Mark Gregson.

早安，歡迎參加景順抵押貸款資本公司第三季財報電話會議。在將電話轉交給我們的首席投資長布萊恩·諾里斯，讓他更詳細地討論我們的投資組合之前，我將作一些簡短的評論。今天早上參加問答環節的還有我們的總裁凱文·柯林斯、營運長戴夫·萊爾和財務長馬克·格雷格森。

The strong momentum that began in mid-April continued throughout the third quarter as expectations for easing monetary policy strong corporate earnings and improved economic growth fueled allies across the financial markets. Financial conditions remained accommodative as volatility measures declined sharply and equity market has performed well with the S&P 500 Index in NASDAQ both posting strong gains.

4月中旬開始的強勁勢頭在整個第三季度持續，市場預期貨幣政策寬鬆、企業盈利強勁、經濟成長改善，這推動了金融市場各板塊的上漲。金融環境依然寬鬆，波動性指標大幅下降，股市表現良好，標普500指數和那斯達克指數均錄得強勁漲幅。

Inflation measures continue to run hotter than the Federal Reserve's 2% target over the quarter. With a headline consumer price index rising to 3% in September, up from 2.7 in June, while the core CPI increased from 2.9% to 3%. Investor expectations for future inflation seen through TIPS breakeven rates increased modestly, reflecting concerns about the potential impact of fiscal and trade policies on consumer prices.

本季通膨指標持續高於聯準會2%的目標。9 月整體消費者物價指數上漲至 3%，高於 6 月的 2.7%，而核心消費者物價指數則從 2.9% 上漲至 3%。投資人對未來通膨的預期（透過通膨保值債券的損益平衡利率衡量）略有上升，反映出他們對財政和貿易政策可能對消費者價格產生的影響的擔憂。

Meanwhile, prior to the pause in data caused by the government shutdown on October 1, labor market data pointed to continued sluggish growth. The economy added an average of 51,000 jobs in July and August, down slightly from $55,000 per month in the second quarter, while the headline unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August.

同時，在10月1日政府停擺導致數據暫停前，勞動市場數據顯示經濟成長持續低迷。7 月和 8 月，經濟平均新增就業 51,000 個，略低於第二季的每月 55,000 美元，而 8 月份總體失業率上升至 4.3%。

Despite persistent inflation above the Fed's target, the FMC lowered its benchmark federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in mid-September, exciting signs of a weaker labor market. On Wednesday, the FMC cut its target rate an additional 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% and announced the end of quantitative tightening.

儘管通膨持續高於聯準會的目標，但聯邦基金市場委員會 (FMC) 在 9 月中旬將基準聯邦基金目標利率下調了 25 個基點，這表明勞動力市場疲軟。週三，聯準會將目標利率再下調 25 個基點至 3.75% 至 4% 的區間，並宣布結束量化緊縮政策。

Futures pricing now indicates that investors expect 3 more cuts before the end of next year. Interest rates declined across the treasury now curve during the quarter with shorter maturities leading the way. This also reflected market expectations for a more accommodative policy stance from the Federal Reserve and continued weakness in the labor market.

期貨價格顯示，投資人預計明年年底前還會有3次降薪。本季美國公債殖利率曲線整體下降，其中短期公債殖利率降幅最大。這也反映了市場預期聯準會將採取更寬鬆的政策立場，以及勞動市場持續疲軟。

Industry volatility declined notably throughout the quarter on growing consensus for easing monetary policy. As a result, agency mortgages performed well during the third quarter, benefiting from the persistent decline in interest rate volatility as well as the overall supportive environment for risk assets.

由於市場對寬鬆貨幣政策的共識日益增強，本季產業波動性顯著下降。因此，在利率波動持續下降以及風險資產整體環境向好的情況下，機構抵押貸款在第三季表現良好。

While demand from commercial banks and overseas investors remained relatively subdued, the steepening of the yield curve in the front end improved investor sentiment for agency mortgages. The outperformance was broadly distributed across the 30-year conventional mortgage coupon stack with discount coupons recording the largest gains.

儘管商業銀行和海外投資者的需求仍然相對疲軟，但前端殖利率曲線的陡峭化改善了投資者對機構抵押貸款的信心。30 年期傳統抵押貸款債券的整體表現優異，其中折價券收益最大。

Performance in higher coupons was dampened by elevated prepayment risk as 30-year mortgage rate declined approximately 50 basis points during the quarter. Positively, premiums on specified pocollateral improved in higher coupons as investors saw prepayment protection.

由於 30 年期抵押貸款利率在本季下降了約 50 個基點，提前還款風險上升，導致高利息債券的表現受到抑制。積極的一面是，隨著票息的提高，特定抵押品的溢價有所改善，因為投資者看到了提前償付保障。

Agency CMBS risk premiums declined quarter-over-quarter as investor demand increased with broader financial markets. These factors led to a 4.5% increase in book value per common share to $8.41 at quarter end. And when combined with our $0.34 dividend, resulted in a positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter. Leverage ticked up slightly as our debt-to-equity ratio increased to 6.7% at the end of the quarter, up from 6.5x as we continue to reduce the percentage of our capital structure comprised of preferred stock and position the company to further benefit from positive Agency RMBS performance.

隨著金融市場整體向好，投資者需求增加，機構商業抵押貸款支持證券（CMBS）的風險溢價較上月下降。這些因素導致每股普通股帳面價值在季末成長 4.5%，達到 8.41 美元。加上每股 0.34 美元的股息，本季實現了 8.7% 的正經濟回報。由於我們持續降低優先股在資本結構中所佔的比例，並使公司能夠進一步受益於機構RMBS的正面表現，因此，截至本季末，我們的負債權益比率從6.5倍上升至6.7%，槓桿率略有上升。

During the quarter, we raised $36 million by issuing common stock through our ATM program, maintaining a disciplined approach to ensure that this activity benefits existing shareholders. At quarter end, our $5.7 billion investment portfolio consisted of $4.8 billion agency mortgages and $2.9 billion agency RMBS and we retained a sizable balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments totaling $423 million.

本季度，我們透過 ATM 計劃發行普通股籌集了 3,600 萬美元，並採取了嚴謹的方式，以確保這項活動有利於現有股東。截至季末，我們57億美元的投資組合包括48億美元的機構抵押貸款和29億美元的機構RMBS，我們保留了相當可觀的非限制性現金和未抵押投資餘額，總計4.23億美元。

As of last night's close, we estimate book value was up approximately 1.5% since quarter end. Given the notable decline in interest rate volatility, we remain constructive on agency mortgages, and we view near-term risks as balanced following its recent strong performance. Our longer-term outlook for this sector remains favorable as we expect investment demands to broaden given the lower interest rate volatility, a steeper yield curve, attractive valuations and the end of quantitative tightening.

截至昨晚收盤，我們估計帳面價值較季度末增長了約 1.5%。鑑於利率波動性顯著下降，我們仍然看好機構抵押貸款，並且鑑於其近期的強勁表現，我們認為短期風險是平衡的。鑑於利率波動性降低、殖利率曲線更加陡峭、估值具有吸引力以及量化緊縮政策的結束，我們預計投資需求將擴大，因此我們對該行業的長期前景仍然樂觀。

In addition, HTC CMBS continues to offer attractive risk-adjusted yields and diversification benefits relative to our AMC mortgage holdings supported by its stable cash flow profile and lower sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. Lastly, we believe anticipated changes to bank regulatory capital rules would increase investor demand for agency mortgages and agency CMBS, providing further tailwinds for both sectors.

此外，與我們的 AMC 抵押貸款持有量相比，HTC CMBS 繼續提供具有吸引力的風險調整後收益率和多元化收益，這得益於其穩定的現金流狀況和對利率波動較低的敏感性。最後，我們認為，預期中的銀行監管資本規則變化將增加投資者對機構抵押貸款和機構商業抵押貸款支持證券 (CMBS) 的需求，從而為這兩個行業帶來進一步的利好。

Now I'll turn the call over to Brian for more details.

現在我將把電話交給布萊恩，請他提供更多細節。

Thanks, John, and good morning to everyone listening to the call. I'll begin on slide 4, which provides an overview of the interest rate markets over the past year. As depicted in the chart on the upper left, despite further easing of monetary policy in September, treasury yields declined only modestly during the quarter as the deterioration in employment data was offset by robust economic growth, fueled in part by the boom and AI investment.

謝謝約翰，也祝所有收聽電話會議的朋友們早安。我將從第 4 張投影片開始，該投影片概述了過去一年的利率市場狀況。如左上圖所示，儘管9月份貨幣政策進一步放鬆，但由於強勁的經濟成長抵消了就業數據的惡化，而經濟成長的部分原因是經濟繁榮和人工智慧投資，因此該季度國債殖利率僅小幅下降。

Positively, the yield curve continue to steepen with two-year treasury yields falling 11 basis points, while 30-year yields were down just 4 basis points. The difference between two-year and 30-year treasury yields ended the quarter at 112 basis points, roughly 65 basis points steeper than a year ago, and remain supportive of longer-term investments, such as our Agency RMBS and Agency CMBS.

令人欣喜的是，殖利率曲線持續陡峭化，兩年期公債殖利率下降了 11 個基點，而 30 年期公債殖利率僅下降了 4 個基點。兩年期和 30 年期公債殖利率之間的差額在本季末為 112 個基點，比一年前陡峭了約 65 個基點，這仍然有利於長期投資，例如我們的機構 RMBS 和機構 CMBS。

The chart in the upper right reflects changes in short-term funding rates over the past year, with the third quarter highlighted in gray. While financing capacity for our assets remained ample and haircuts unchanged, 1-month repo spread began to indicate funding pressures in late September and continued into October, widening approximately 5 basis points.

右上角的圖表反映了過去一年短期融資利率的變化，其中第三季以灰色突出顯示。儘管我們資產的融資能力仍然充足，折扣幅度也保持不變，但 1 個月回購利差在 9 月下旬開始顯示出融資壓力，並持續到 10 月，擴大了約 5 個基點。

Steady issuance of T-bills caused dealers to become very long collateral, squeezing balance sheet and putting upward pressure on repo rates. We believe that FOMC announcement on Wednesday to end quantitative tightening at the end of November was largely in response to this pressure, but further adjustments may be necessary before repo spreads can unwind the recent widening.

國庫券的持續發行導致交易商持有大量抵押品，擠壓了資產負債表，並給回購利率帶來了上行壓力。我們認為，聯準會週三宣布將於 11 月底結束量化緊縮政策，很大程度上是為了應對這種壓力，但在回購利差能夠消除近期擴大的趨勢之前，可能還需要進一步的調整。

Lastly, the bottom right chart highlights the significant decline in implied interest rate volatility since the middle of April. This improvement has provided a tailwind for risk assets in recent months, particularly Agency RMBS and is largely driven by diminishing tail risks across fiscal, monetary and trade policies as well as potential deregulation measures that should encourage greater investment in fixed income securities.

最後，右下角的圖表突顯了自 4 月中旬以來隱含利率波動性的顯著下降。近幾個月來，這項改善為風險資產，特別是機構RMBS，提供了順風，這主要是由於財政、貨幣和貿易政策的尾部風險減少，以及可能出台的放鬆管制措施，這些措施應該會鼓勵對固定收益證券進行更多投資。

Slide 5 provides more detail on the HCC mortgage market. In the upper left chart, we show 30-year current coupon performance versus US treasuries over the past year, highlighting the third quarter in gray. Agency mortgage performance was impressive during the quarter as the decline in interest rate volatility supported persistent demand for money managers and mortgage REITs, while net supply continued to undershoot expectations.

第 5 張投影片提供了有關 HCC 抵押貸款市場的更多詳細資訊。在左上角的圖表中，我們展示了過去一年中 30 年期當前票息表現與美國國債的表現，並用灰色突出顯示了第三季度。本季機構抵押貸款表現令人印象深刻，利率波動性的下降支撐了對資金管理人和抵押貸款 REIT 的持續需求，而淨供應繼續低於預期。

Although bank and overseas demand remains subdued, steady inflows into money managers and robust capital raising by mortgage REITs helped to offset the weakness resulting in strong returns for the sector. Third-year mortgage rates declined during the quarter as tighter mortgage spreads, lower interest rates and compression in the primary secondary spread led to a decline of nearly 50 basis points.

儘管銀行和海外需求仍然疲軟，但資金穩定流入資產管理公司，以及抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金強勁的資本籌集，幫助抵消了疲軟態勢，從而為該行業帶來了強勁的回報。本季度，由於抵押貸款利差收窄、利率下降以及一級和二級市場利差收窄，第三年抵押貸款利率下降了近 50 個基點。

This decline in mortgage rates dampened the performance of higher coupons relative to those lower in the stack as investors were reluctant to increase prepayment risk in their portfolios. While generic collateral and discount coupons outperformed treasury hedges by 90 to 130 basis points, similarly generic collateral in 6% and 6.5% coupons outperformed by a more modest 30 to 70 basis points.

抵押貸款利率的下降抑制了高息債券相對於低息債券的表現，因為投資者不願增加投資組合中的提前還款風險。雖然普通抵押品和折扣券的表現比國債對沖高出 90 至 130 個基點，但票面利率為 6% 和 6.5% 的普通抵押品的表現也僅略好於國債對沖高出 30 至 70 個基點。

In the upper right-hand chart, we show higher coupon specified pool pay-ups which are the premium investors pay for specified pools over generic collateral and are representative of the bonds at IVR owns. Positively, payoffs improved during the quarter. offsetting a portion of their underperformance relative to lower coupons given increased investor demand for additional prepayment protection and premium coupons.

在右上角的圖表中，我們展示了較高的票息指定池支付，這是投資者為指定池支付的相對於一般抵押品的溢價，代表了 IVR 持有的債券。正面的一面是，本季收益有所改善，由於投資者對額外提前還款保障和溢價票息的需求增加，部分抵消了其相對於較低票息的業績不佳的影響。

Although IVR's prepayment fees were relatively unchanged during the quarter at just over 10 CPR, higher coupons did indicate a faster refi response to the decline in mortgage rates in September, and we expect a similar response in speeds this month. This recent increase in refinancing activity is expected to be somewhat short-lived, however, as increased refi efficiencies result in swifter responses and reduced flag comps with November speeds expected to decline. We continue to believe that owning prepayment protection via specified pools, particularly in premium price holdings remains a beneficial way to hold attractively priced mortgage exposure.

儘管 IVR 的提前還款費用在本季度基本保持不變，略高於 10 CPR，但更高的票息確實表明，9 月份抵押貸款利率下降後，再融資反應更快，我們預計本月的反應速度也會類似。然而，近期再融資活動的增加預計將是短暫的，因為再融資效率的提高將導致更快的反應速度和更少的品牌比較，預計 11 月的交易速度將會下降。我們仍然認為，透過特定資金池持有提前還款保障，特別是以溢價持有，仍然是持有價格有吸引力的抵押貸款敞口的一種有益方式。

Slide 6 details our Agency RMBS investments and summarizes the investment portfolio changes during the quarter. Our Agency RMBS portfolio increased 13% quarter-over-quarter as we invested proceeds from ATM issuance and maintain leverage at book value improved. The majority of our net purchases occurred in 4.5% versus 5.5% coupons with a decline in our 6% and 6.5% allocations, a result of paydowns and the growth in the overall portfolio.

第 6 張投影片詳細介紹了我們的機構 RMBS 投資，並總結了本季投資組合的變化。我們的機構RMBS投資組合季增13%，因為我們投資了ATM發行所得款項，並維持了帳面價值的槓桿率。我們大部分的淨購買發生在票面利率為 4.5% 和 5.5% 的債券中，而 6% 和 6.5% 債券的配置有所下降，這是由於債券償還和整體投資組合的增長所致。

Although we continue to focus our specified pool allocation on prepayment characteristics that are expected to perform well in both premium and discount environments. Price appreciation in our holdings has resulted in a higher percentage of our pools valued at premium dollar prices.

儘管我們繼續將指定的資金池分配重點放在預計在保費和折扣環境下均表現良好的預付特性上。我們持有的資產價格上漲，導致我們資產池中以溢價美元估值的資產比例增加。

Therefore, while we remain most comfortable with lower loan balance specified pool stories, we increased our exposure to borrowers with higher loan-to-value ratios, given our expectations for slowing on price appreciation resulting in a reduced refi response for these borrowers. Overall, we remain constructive on Agency RMBS as supply and demand technicals are favorable and lower levels of interest rate volatility should continue to encourage strong demand for the sector.

因此，儘管我們仍然最傾向於貸款餘額較低的特定資金池，但考慮到我們預期價格上漲速度將放緩，導致這些借款人的再融資需求減少，我們增加了對貸款價值比較高的借款人的敞口。整體而言，我們仍看好機構RMBS，因為供需技術面有利，較低的利率波動性應會持續刺激對該產業的強勁需求。

We believe near-term risks have become more balanced following recent outperformance with nominal spreads tightening approximately 20 basis points during the quarter. However, valuations remain attractive with the current coupon spreads on a 5 and 10-year sober blend ending the quarter near 170 basis points, equating to leverage gross returns in the upper teens.

我們認為，在近期表現優異之後，短期風險已趨於平衡，本季名目利差收窄了約 20 個基點。然而，目前的估值仍然很有吸引力，5 年期和 10 年期穩健混合債券的票息差在本季度末接近 170 個基點，相當於槓桿毛回報率在 10% 以上。

Slide 7 provides detail on our Agency CMBS portfolio, risk premiums tightened during the quarter consistent with broader financial markets. Given the more attractive relative value in Agency RMBS, we did not add to our agency CMBS position during the quarter and maintained current holdings with our allocation declining modestly due to the growth in the portfolio.

第 7 張投影片詳細介紹了我們的機構 CMBS 投資組合，本季風險溢價收緊，與更廣泛的金融市場一致。鑑於機構RMBS的相對價值更具吸引力，我們在本季沒有增加機構CMBS的持股，並維持了目前的持股，由於投資組合的成長，我們的配置略有下降。

Despite the lack of new purchases, we continue to believe that Agency CMBS offers many benefits mainly through its premade protection and fixed maturities which reduced our sensitivity to interest rate volatility. Levered gross ROEs are in the low double digits and consistent with ROEs and lower coupon Agency RMBS, and we have been disciplined on adding exposure only when the relative value between Agency CMBS and Agency RMBS accurately reflects their unique risk profiles.

儘管缺乏新的購買，我們仍然相信機構 CMBS 具有諸多優勢，主要體現在其預先設定的保護和固定期限上，這降低了我們對利率波動的敏感度。槓桿毛 ROE 處於兩位數低位，與 ROE 和低息機構 RMBS 一致，我們一直堅持只在機構 CMBS 和機構 RMBS 之間的相對價值準確反映其獨特風險狀況時才增加敞口。

Financing capacity has been robust as we continue to fund our positions with multiple counterparties at attractive levels. We will continue to monitor the sector for opportunities to increase our allocation as the relative value becomes attractive, recognizing the overall benefits to the portfolio as the sector diversifies risk associated with an agency RMBS portfolio.

由於我們持續以優惠的價格從多個交易對手方獲得資金，因此融資能力一直很強勁。我們將繼續關注該行業，尋找機會在相對價值變得有吸引力時增加我們的配置，因為該行業能夠分散與機構RMBS投資組合相關的風險，從而為投資組合帶來整體收益。

Slide 8 details our funding and hedging book at quarter end. Repurchase agreements collateralized by our Agency RMBS and Agency CMBS investments increased from $4.6 billion to $5.2 billion, consistent with the increase in our total assets while the total notional of our hedges increased from $4.3 billion to $4.4 billion as our hedge ratio declined from 94% to 85%.

第 8 張投影片詳細介紹了我們季度末的融資和對沖帳目。以我們的機構RMBS和機構CMBS投資為抵押的回購協議從46億美元增加到52億美元，與我們的總資產增加一致；同時，隨著我們的對沖比率從94%下降到85%，我們的對沖總名目金額從43億美元增加到44億美元。

The table on the right provides further detail on our hedges at year-end. The composition of our hedges shifted modestly towards treasury futures quarter-over-quarter with 77% of our hedges consisting of interest rate swaps on a notional basis. While on a dollar duration basis, the allocation declined to 63% given the higher allocation of interest rate swaps closer to the front end of the curve.

右側表格提供了我們年底對沖情況的更多詳細資訊。我們的對沖組合較上月略轉向國債期貨，名義上，我們的避險組合中有 77% 由利率互換構成。而以美元久期計算，由於利率互換在殖利率曲線前端附近的配置比例較高，此配置比例下降至 63%。

Yield swap spreads widened during the quarter, unwinding a portion of the tightening experienced in the second quarter, serving as a tailwind for our performance. Despite the recent widening, we continue to believe swap spreads are still historically tight and should continue to normalize, benefiting the company, and we maintain our preference for interest rate was over treasury futures.

本季殖利率互換利差擴大，部分抵銷了第二季經歷的收緊，對我們的業績起到了推動作用。儘管最近有所擴大，但我們仍然認為互換利差仍處於歷史低位，並應繼續趨於正常化，這對公司有利，我們仍然堅持對利率期貨的偏好，而不是國債期貨。

Slide 9 provides detail on our capital structure and highlights the improvement made in recent quarters to reduce our cost of capital. Further improvement in the capital structure remains a focus of our management team as we seek to prudently maximize shareholder returns. To conclude our prepared remarks, financial market volatility has declined notably since the beginning of the second quarter, resulting in strong performance from most risk assets in the last 5 months.

第 9 頁詳細介紹了我們的資本結構，並重點介紹了最近幾季為降低資本成本所做的改進。進一步改善資本結構仍然是我們管理團隊的工作重點，我們將謹慎地尋求最大限度地提高股東回報。最後總結我們準備好的發言，自第二季初以來，金融市場波動性顯著下降，導致過去 5 個月大多數風險資產表現強勁。

IVR's economic return of 8.7% during the third quarter is a result of that positive momentum, but also reflects our disciplined approach to capital activity and our focus on shareholder returns. In recent years, we have taken significant yet prudent steps towards improving our capital structure and reducing the cost of capital to our common stock shareholders.

IVR 第三季的經濟回報率為 8.7%，這得益於這一積極的發展勢頭，同時也反映了我們對資本活動的嚴謹態度以及對股東回報的關注。近年來，我們採取了重要而謹慎的措施來改善資本結構，降低普通股股東的資本成本。

We remain committed to that approach as we seek to further reduce expenses while enhancing returns and improving scale. We believe our liquidity position provides substantial cushion for further potential market stress while also providing sufficient capital to deploy into our target assets as the investment environment evolves.

我們將繼續堅持這一方針，力求在提高回報和擴大規模的同時，進一步降低成本。我們相信，我們的流動性狀況能夠為應對未來潛在的市場壓力提供充足的緩衝，同時也能為隨著投資環境變化而進行的目標資產配置提供足夠的資金。

While we view near-term risks as somewhat balanced we believe further easing of monetary policy will lead to a steeper yield curve and lower interest rate volatility, both of which will provide a supportive backdrop for HT mortgages over the long term.

雖然我們認為近期風險尚屬平衡，但我們相信進一步放鬆貨幣政策將導致殖利率曲線更加陡峭，利率波動性降低，這兩方面都將為長期高利抵押貸款提供有利的背景。

Thank you for your continued support for Invesco Mortgage Capital, and now we will open the line for Q&A.

感謝您一直以來對景順抵押貸款資本的支持，現在我們將開通問答環節。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Trevor Cranston, Citizens JMP.

現在開始問答環節。（操作說明）特雷弗·克蘭斯頓，市民 JMP。

You're just talking about the changes in the hedge portfolio moving a little bit towards treasuries this quarter. Can you talk in general about kind of where your net duration exposure is at? And kind of if you have any general position on with respect to the shape of the yield curve? And then a second question on the hedge portfolios, how you guys are thinking about potentially using options given the decline in the cost of volatility .

你只是在談論對沖投資組合的變化，本季略微轉向國債。您能否大致談談您目前的淨久期風險敞口情況？那麼，您對殖利率曲線的形狀有什麼整體看法呢？第二個問題是關於對沖投資組合的，鑑於波動率成本的下降，你們是如何考慮使用選擇權的？。

Sure, Trevor. Thanks for the question. Yes, I'll talk a yield curve first. We kind of had a bit of a steepener on a while now. And we started to reduce that a little bit, preferring to move more of our hedges into the front end of the curve.

當然可以，特雷弗。謝謝你的提問。是的，我先談談殖利率曲線。我們這段時間以來一直比較緊張。於是我們開始減少一些對沖，更傾向於將更多的對沖轉移到曲線的前端。

Obviously, the Fed did cut rates on Wednesday, Sharpie did express that future cuts are a little less certain than the market was expecting.

顯然，聯準會週三確實降息了，但夏普也表示，未來降息的不確定性比市場預期的要小一些。

And so I think that would result in a bit of a flatter curve than what we've been seeing. So as potentially those cuts start to get priced out of the market. So like being -- we're still positioned for a bit of a steepener, but we did reduce that just a little bit. As far as the overall net duration of the portfolio, we like -- we have historically preferred to have empirical duration as close to 0 as we can get it.

所以我認為這將導致曲線比我們目前看到的要平緩一些。因此，這些降價產品可能會因為價格過高而退出市場。所以就像——我們仍然處於一個坡度略微陡峭的階段，但我們確實稍微降低了這種陡峭程度。至於投資組合的整體淨久期，我們喜歡——我們歷來都傾向於讓經驗久期盡可能接近 0。

Given the fact that most of our tools are a larger percentage of our tools are now in premium prices. We do think that we have a little bit more risk towards a rally in interest rates. And so at least from a model duration perspective, we are running model duration is slightly long versus kind of being more historically flat. So we still do prefer interest rate swaps. We do think that, like we said, we do expect swap spreads to continue to normalize.

鑑於我們的大多數工具都是高端產品，現在我們很大一部分工具都處於高價位。我們認為利率上漲的風險略高一些。因此，至少從模型持續時間的角度來看，我們目前的模型持續時間略長，而不是像歷史上那樣較為平緩。所以我們還是比較傾向利率互換。正如我們所說，我們確實認為互換利差將繼續趨於正常化。

And as that occurs, we'll kind of continue to move more into treasury futures, just given some of the benefits that we see there from a liquidity and margining perspective. But right now, we still think that there's we still have a bit of widening to do in there. So we'd like to lean more heavily into swaps.

隨著這種情況的發生，我們將繼續更多地轉向國債期貨，因為我們從流動性和保證金的角度來看看到了國債期貨的一些優勢。但就目前而言，我們仍然認為這方面還有一些需要拓寬的地方。所以我們希望更加重視互換交易。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then with the tightening that we saw in agency spreads in the last quarter, can you talk about where you're seeing returns on kind of marginal capital deployment relative to the existing dividend level? .

知道了。好的。那很有幫助。鑑於上個季度機構利差收窄，您能否談談相對於現有股息水平，邊際資本部署的回報情況？。

Yes. So at the end of the quarter, levered gross returns were in the upper teens. So net returns were kind of mid-teen area. So that's pretty consistent with where our dividend to book yield is. So we feel like is supportive of that level.

是的。因此，到季度末，槓桿毛殖利率達到了十幾個百分點。所以淨收益大概在十幾個百分點左右。所以這與我們的股息淨值收益率基本一致。所以我們認為這能夠支持這個水準。

And we've seen a little bit of compression so far in October, just given further outperformance in mortgages that.

鑑於抵押貸款的進一步優異表現，我們在 10 月已經看到了一些壓縮。

Recently, we have seen those levels kind of back up a little bit since the Fed meeting. So I think mostly in line with what the earnings power of the portfolio currently is.

最近，自從聯準會會議以來，我們看到這些水準有所回升。所以我認為這基本上符合該投資組合目前的獲利能力。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Harter, UBS.

（操作說明）道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

Can you talk about your appetite for continuing to kind of change the capital structure with the buyback of the preferred issuance common. And I guess, as you look at those transactions, the combined effect of that transaction, does that have any impact on book value in the quarter?

您能否談談您是否有興趣透過回購優先股和普通股來繼續改變資本結構？我想，當你審視這些交易時，這些交易的綜合影響是否會對本季的帳面價值產生任何影響？

Yes. Doug, it's John. Yes, on the preferred buybacks, I mean, those are relatively small. Obviously, I think there is -- so the impact was pretty minimal on that. I think around $2 million we bought back.

是的。道格，我是約翰。是的，就優先回購而言，我的意思是，這些回購規模相對較小。顯然，我認為確實存在這種情況——所以對那方面的影響非常小。我想我們回購了大約200萬美元。

So I mean those -- it's just harder sliding on those because the volume of trading is relatively low. So we'll continue to, to buy those back as long as that makes sense and they're trading below 25%, which -- so that didn't have a big impact on, on the capital structure, although in the right direction. Yes. And then in comment.

我的意思是，在這些股票上滑動比較困難，因為交易量相對較低。所以，只要有意義且股價低於 25%，我們就會繼續回購這些股票，這——雖然朝著正確的方向發展，但對資本結構並沒有產生很大的影響。是的。然後在評論中。

Obviously, -- in terms of common stock, I mean, we're trading at -- we've been trading at a discount. So we have not issued any recently, which would go in the right direction for improving the capital structure. In terms of going the other way, in terms of buybacks, we have been active in the past buying back shares.

顯然，就普通股而言，我的意思是，我們的股票一直處於折價交易狀態。因此，我們近期沒有發行任何債券，這對於改善資本結構而言是一個正確的方向。至於反向操作，也就是股票回購方面，我們過去一直積極回購股票。

Typically, we look for times when the price-to-book ratio is persistently low over an extended period of time. I mean it kind of bounces around quite a bit. And so if we look for persistent discount and also when investment opportunities are not accretive. So right now, we're still seeing relatively accretive investment opportunities. So we're not buying back shares now.

通常情況下，我們會尋找市淨率在較長一段時間內持續處於低位的時期。我的意思是，它有點到處亂跳。因此，如果我們尋找持續的折價，以及投資機會不具增值性的情況。所以目前來看，我們仍然看到一些相對有利的投資機會。所以我們現在不打算回購股票。

Certainly, if those conditions occur, we will certainly look at doing that.

當然，如果出現這些情況，我們一定會考慮這樣做。

Great. And then moving back to the investment opportunities, just how you're seeing the relative value between Agency CMBS and Agency MBS today?

偉大的。那麼，回到投資機會的話題，您目前如何看待機構商業抵押貸款支持證券 (CMBS) 和機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 之間的相對價值呢？

Yes, Doug, it's Brian. Yes, I mean, Agency RMBS continues to provide a more attractive ROE. I think Agency CMBS, like I said in my comments, the return potential there is a bit more in line with what we would call lower coupon Agency RMBS and continues to have a lot of benefits.

是的，道格，我是布萊恩。是的，我的意思是，機構RMBS繼續提供更具吸引力的ROE。我認為，正如我在評論中所說，機構 CMBS 的回報潛力更接近我們所說的低息機構 RMBS，並且仍然有很多優勢。

So I think -- to the extent that Agency RMBS is still mid to upper teens, we would probably look to see a bit more compression between the 2 before we would look to significantly moved more towards Agency CMBS, but we do like continuing to hold those securities as they do provide a lot of convexity benefits for the portfolio.

所以我認為——如果機構RMBS的價格仍然在十幾到二十幾之間，我們可能會期待看到兩者之間出現更大的壓縮，然後再考慮大幅轉向機構CMBS，但我們確實喜歡繼續持有這些證券，因為它們確實為投資組合提供了很大的凸性優勢。

At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I'll turn the call back over to the speakers.

目前，我不再提出其他問題。我將把通話轉回給發言人。

Thank you, everybody, again for joining and look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

再次感謝各位的參與，期待下季與大家再次交流。

Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時，您可以斷開線路。