昆泰 (IQV) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the IQVIA third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。在此,我謹代表 IQVIA 歡迎各位參加 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Kerri Joseph, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury. Mr. Joseph, please begin your conference.

    再次提醒,本次通話正在錄音。謝謝。現在我將把電話交給投資者關係和財務高級副總裁凱瑞·約瑟夫。約瑟夫先生,請開始您的會議。

  • Kerri Joseph - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations and Treasury

    Kerri Joseph - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations and Treasury

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our third quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Ari Bousbib, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ron Bruehlman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Eric Sherbet, Executive Vice President and General Counsel; Mike Fedock, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Analysis; and Gustavo Perrone, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

    謝謝接線生。各位早安。感謝您參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:董事長兼執行長阿里·布斯比;執行副總裁兼首席財務官羅恩·布魯爾曼;執行副總裁兼總法律顧問埃里克·舍貝特;財務規劃與分析高級副總裁邁克·費多克;以及投資者關係高級總監古斯塔沃·佩羅內。

  • Today, we will be referencing a presentation that will be visible during this call for those of you on our webcast. This presentation will also be available following this call on the Events and Presentations section of our IQVIA Investor Relations website at ir.iqvia.com.

    今天,我們將參考一份演示文稿,參加我們網絡直播的各位可以在本次通話中看到該演示文稿。本次電話會議結束後,您也可以在 IQVIA 投資者關係網站 ir.iqvia.com 的「活動與簡報」部分查看本次簡報。

  • Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that certain information discussed by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements. Results could differ materially from those stated or implied by forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business, which are discussed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings.

    在會議開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,管理階層在本次電話會議中討論的某些資訊將包含前瞻性陳述。由於公司業務存在風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所述或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性已在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了討論,包括我們的 10-K 表格年度報告和隨後的 SEC 文件。

  • In addition, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call, which should be considered a supplement to and as a substitute for financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP measures is included in the press release and conference call presentation.

    此外,我們將在本次電話會議上討論一些非GAAP財務指標,這些指標應被視為依照GAAP編製的財務指標的補充和替代。新聞稿和電話會議簡報中包含了這些非GAAP指標與可比較GAAP指標的調節表。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Ari Bousbib.

    現在我謹將電話轉交給我們的董事長兼執行長阿里·布斯比布。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Kerri, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter results. We delivered another strong quarter, [rather than when] profits were towards the high end of our guidance, reflecting its solid operational performance. Free cash flow was particularly impressive this quarter.

    謝謝你,凱瑞,大家早安。感謝各位今天蒞臨現場,與我們共同探討第三季業績。我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度,利潤接近我們預期的高端水平,這反映了公司穩健的營運表現。本季自由現金流表現尤為亮眼。

  • It was actually the highest quarterly free cash flow ever, even when you consider the large advances we got during the COVID era for vaccine trials. This strong free cash flow, of course, reflects a good and disciplined working capital management by the team, but also an improved overall industry backdrop.

    即使考慮到我們在新冠疫情期間疫苗試驗獲得的巨額資金,這仍然是有史以來最高的季度自由現金流。當然,強勁的自由現金流反映了團隊良好且嚴謹的營運資本管理,同時也反映了整體產業環境的改善。

  • On the clinical side, net bookings in the quarter totaled exactly $2.6 billion, which resulted in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.15, also reflecting the improving trends in customer demand that we started seeing in the second quarter as well as, of course, solid execution from our sales teams.

    在臨床方面,本季淨預訂額總計為 26 億美元,淨預訂出貨比為 1.15,這也反映了我們在第二季開始看到的客戶需求改善趨勢,當然也得益於我們銷售團隊的出色執行。

  • In fact, our third quarter net bookings were 5% higher sequentially, 13% higher than a year ago and 21% higher than the trough that we experienced in Q1 this year. Key demand metrics were also strong in the quarter. The EBP funding momentum is building this year with each quarter delivering steady sequential growth, reaching $18 billion in Q3 according to BioWorld.

    事實上,我們第三季的淨預訂量較上季成長了 5%,比去年同期成長了 13%,比今年第一季的低谷成長了 21%。本季關鍵需求指標也表現強勁。根據 BioWorld 報導,EBP 的融資勢頭今年持續增強,每季都實現了穩定成長,第三季達到 180 億美元。

  • Our qualified pipeline was up 6% year-over-year, driven by large pharma and EBP segments. You will recall that in the second quarter, we had high single-digit sequential RFP flow growth and low-teens growth year-over-year. This quarter, we saw again high single-digit RFP flow growth sequentially and 20% growth year-over-year with growth across all segments. Importantly, client decision-making time lines have been improving sequentially. Finally, our backlog reached a new record of $32.4 billion at the end of the quarter, showing a growth of 4.1% compared to the prior year.

    我們的合格產品線年增 6%,主要得益於大型製藥公司和實證實踐領域的推動。您應該還記得,在第二季度,我們的 RFP 數量環比增長了接近兩位數,同比增長了兩位數。本季度,我們再次看到 RFP 數量環比增長接近兩位數,同比增長 20%,所有細分市場均實現增長。重要的是,客戶的決策時間軸一直在逐漸改善。最後,截至本季末,我們的積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 324 億美元,比去年同期成長 4.1%。

  • On the commercial side, [TAS] continued to perform well in the third quarter and delivered strong results despite tougher year-over-year comparisons. In fact, if you look historically at sequential revenue growth, Q3 is generally flat to down versus Q2, and we were slightly up this quarter. This was driven by ongoing momentum from drug launches and the strength of our broader commercial portfolio.

    在商業方面,[TAS] 第三季繼續表現良好,儘管同比比較較為艱難,但仍取得了強勁的業績。事實上,從歷史數據來看,第三季與第二季相比通常持平或下降,而我們本季略有成長。這得益於新藥上市帶來的持續成長動能以及我們更廣泛的商業產品組合的強大。

  • I do want to mention the good growth we had this quarter in CSMS, about a third of which was from an acquisition. We decided to increase our capabilities in this segment as we are seeing a developing trend of large pharma clients, increasingly looking to outsource commercial operations for established brands in specific markets. These tend to be large multiyear engagements typically spanning across therapies and geographies, and IQVIA is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend by combining our information and analytics and domain knowledge with a local sales force footprint.

    我想提一下CSMS本季的良好成長,其中約三分之一來自收購。我們決定提升我們在該領域的能力,因為我們看到大型製藥客戶越來越多地尋求將特定市場中成熟品牌的商業營運外包,這已成為一種發展趨勢。這些往往是跨越多個治療領域和地理區域的大型多年合作項目,而 IQVIA 憑藉其資訊、分析和領域知識以及本地銷售團隊的優勢,能夠充分利用這一趨勢。

  • Let me turn to the results of the quarter. Against strong revenue and profit results, revenue for the third quarter came in at the high end of our guidance range, representing year-over-year growth of 5.2% on a reported basis and just under 4% at constant terms. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was up 1.1%. Third quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $3 increased 5.6% year-over-year.

    接下來,我將介紹本季的業績。儘管營收和利潤表現強勁,但第三季營收仍處於我們預期範圍的高端,按報告數據計算同比增長 5.2%,按固定匯率計算同比增長略低於 4%。第三季調整後 EBITDA 成長 1.1%。第三季調整後攤薄每股收益為 3 美元,年增 5.6%。

  • Let me just now, as I usually do share a few highlights of business activity, let me start with TAS. New drug launches continue to be a key area of strength for IQVIA. A few examples, a biotech client who awarded us a multiyear integrated partnership to support faster product launches. This will include a full suite of information assets and analytics capabilities. A top 10 pharma clients awarded IQVIA program to support the launch of a novel oncology therapy.

    現在,我通常會分享一些業務活動的亮點,那麼就讓我從 TAS 開始吧。新藥上市仍然是 IQVIA 的關鍵優勢領域。舉幾個例子,一家生物技術客戶授予我們多年綜合合作夥伴關係,以支持其產品更快上市。這將包括一整套資訊資產和分析功能。排名前 10 名的製藥客戶授予 IQVIA 計畫資助,以支持其推出一種新型腫瘤療法。

  • Top 20 pharma clients awarded IQVIA a contract to support the launch of a dual indication metabolic therapy, utilizing AI capabilities to integrate advanced patient insights into product utilization and patient response. The top 10 pharma clients selected IQVIA to provide large support for a new autoimmune disorder therapy. The engagement includes advanced AI-enabled patient level solutions that enable performance tracking and analytics near real time and integrate specialty pharmacy data and payer insights.

    排名前 20 名的製藥客戶授予 IQVIA 一份合同,以支持推出一種具有雙重適應症的代謝療法,利用人工智慧功能將先進的患者洞察整合到產品使用和患者反應中。排名前 10 名的製藥客戶選擇 IQVIA 為新的自體免疫疾病療法提供大量支持。該合作項目包括先進的人工智慧賦能的患者級解決方案,可實現近乎即時的性能追蹤和分析,並整合專科藥房數據和支付方見解。

  • A good example of the commercial outsourcing trend I mentioned earlier was a very large award from the top 5 pharma clients to manage end-to-end commercialization and promotion of an established brand portfolio in a very large overseas market.

    我之前提到的商業外包趨勢的一個很好的例子是,排名前 5 的製藥客戶授予我們一筆巨額合同,負責在一個非常大的海外市場管理成熟品牌組合的端到端商業化和推廣。

  • We're progressing as planned to deploy highly specialized industry AI agents. So far, we have approximately 90 agents in development covering 25 use cases across commercial, real world and R&DS. We, in fact, are now seeing growing demand to help our clients accelerate AI adoption. We are increasingly helping our clients build data infrastructures that are robust and AI ready by leveraging IQVIA health care-grade AI ecosystem, combining advanced information management, integrated platforms, security, safety and privacy along with domain expertise. Let me share a few examples of key wins in report.

    我們正按計畫推進高度專業化的產業人工智慧代理的部署。目前,我們正在開發約 90 個代理,涵蓋商業、現實世界和研發領域的 25 個用例。事實上,我們現在看到越來越多的客戶希望幫助客戶加速採用人工智慧技術。我們正透過利用 IQVIA 醫療保健級 AI 生態系統,結合先進的資訊管理、整合平台、安全、保障和隱私以及領域專業知識,不斷幫助客戶建立強大且適用於 AI 的資料基礎設施。讓我分享報告中幾個關鍵成果的例子。

  • The top 20 pharma clients selected IQVIA to deliver a next-generation information management solution that streamlined hundreds of sales data feeds into an AI-enabled centralized simplified global warehouse. Another top 10 pharma clients awarded IQVIA a contract to deploy a next-generation AI-enabled SaaS platform to optimize global compliance supporting. The biotech client chose IQVIA to deploy a new global master data management program to enhance AI-enabled omnichannel marketing and analytics operations.

    排名前 20 名的製藥客戶選擇 IQVIA 來提供下一代資訊管理解決方案,該方案將數百個銷售資料來源簡化到一個由人工智慧支援的集中式簡化全球倉庫。另一家排名前 10 的製藥客戶授予 IQVIA 一份合同,部署下一代人工智慧 SaaS 平台,以優化全球合規支援。這家生物技術客戶選擇 IQVIA 來部署一個新的全球主資料管理程序,以增強 AI 賦能的全通路行銷和分析營運。

  • Our real-world business continues to perform well. Here are some examples. Top 10 pharma clients selected IQVIA to lead a post-market commitment study evaluating treatment outcomes in African-American patients with lung cancer. A biotech client selected IQVIA to lead a prospective real-world study supporting a regulatory commitment to a rare oncology disease. Biotech client selected IQVIA to deliver a retrospective real-world study, supporting post-marketing commitments for their newly approved drugs to fulfill regulatory requirements.

    我們的實體業務持續表現良好。以下是一些例子。排名前 10 名的製藥客戶選擇 IQVIA 主導一項上市後承諾研究,評估非裔美國肺癌患者的治療結果。生物技術客戶選擇 IQVIA 領導一項前瞻性真實世界研究,以支持其對一種罕見腫瘤疾病的監管承諾。生技客戶選擇 IQVIA 進行回顧性真實世界研究,以支持其新核准藥物的上市後承諾,從而滿足監管要求。

  • Turning to R&D Solutions. The positive momentum that we saw in Q2 continued to build through Q3. A few standard wins with our biotech customers first. In oncology, a first-time sponsor selected IQVIA to lead the Phase I trial for a novel leukemia treatment. Now the biotech client IQVIA to lead a complex Phase I and Phase II trial in hematologic oncology targeting multiple cohorts across two indications. We were also selected as the exclusive CRO partner for the biotech [entire cardio] vascular program. And of course, this recognized our leadership in cell and gene therapy and cardiovascular research as well as our ability to execute globally.

    轉向研發解決方案。第二季出現的正面動能在第三季得以延續。首先,爭取在生技客戶中取得一些常規的成功。在腫瘤學領域,一家首次舉辦臨床試驗的贊助商選擇 IQVIA 來領導一項新型白血病療法的 I 期試驗。現在,生物技術客戶 IQVIA 將主導一項複雜的血液腫瘤學 I 期和 II 期試驗,該試驗針對兩個適應症的多個隊列。我們也被選為生物技術[整個心血管]計畫的獨家CRO合作夥伴。當然,這也認可了我們在細胞和基因治療以及心血管研究領域的領先地位,以及我們在全球的執行能力。

  • Large pharma is also strong in the quarter. We were, for example, selected to lead a Phase II study in stroke therapy, demonstrating our deep neuroscience expertise and global trial capabilities. Another top 10 biopharma client selected IQVIA to manage a global Phase III MASH program, leveraging AI-enabled pathology tools and a robust site network to accelerate execution. We were also selected to lead a Phase III ovarian cancer study, highlighting our deep therapeutic expertise and the strength of the integrated delivery model in (technical difficulty) clients.

    大型製藥公司本季表現也十分強勁。例如,我們被選中領導一項中風治療的 II 期研究,證明了我們深厚的神經科學專業知識和全球試驗能力。另一位排名前 10 名的生物製藥客戶選擇 IQVIA 來管理一項全球 III 期 MASH 項目,利用人工智慧病理學工具和強大的站點網絡來加速執行。我們也被選中來領導一項 III 期卵巢癌研究,這凸顯了我們在治療方面的深厚專業知識以及整合交付模式在(技術困難)客戶中的優勢。

  • Now before I turn it to Ron for details on our financial performance in the quarter, I want to say a word about the CFO transition we've announced some time ago. As you know, Mike Fedock will step into the CFO role on February 28, 2026, succeeding Ron Bruehlman, who will retire after a remarkable tenure. And that's the good news, Ron will stay on as a senior adviser to continue to help us on specific projects and to help ensure a smooth transition.

    在我將發言權交給 Ron 來詳細介紹我們本季的財務表現之前,我想先談談我們前段時間宣布的財務長人選變更。如你所知,Mike Fedock 將於 2026 年 2 月 28 日接任財務長一職,接替即將退休的 Ron Bruehlman,他在公司取得了卓越的成就。好消息是,羅恩將留任高級顧問,繼續幫助我們進行具體項目,並確保平穩過渡。

  • Ron has been a highly valued leader of this company for many years. In fact, Ron and I have been working together for over a quarter century. Ron has been instrumental in shaping IQVIA's financial strategy, driving its transformation into a leading global organization. He was here from managing the IMS Health IPO in 2014 through the Quintiles merger in 2016, and of course, he returns in 2020 to help us navigate the pandemic. His steady leadership and strategic long-term vision has been essential in building a high-performance global finance organization and helping IQVIA remain resilient during unprecedented times over the past few years.

    多年來,羅恩一直是公司備受尊敬的領導者。事實上,我和羅恩已經合作超過四分之一世紀了。Ron 在塑造 IQVIA 的財務策略方面發揮了重要作用,推動了 IQVIA 轉型成為全球領先的組織。他從 2014 年管理 IMS Health IPO 到 2016 年昆泰合併,一直在這裡工作,當然,他在 2020 年又回來了,幫助我們應對疫情。在過去的幾年裡,他穩健的領導和長遠的策略眼光對於打造高效的全球財務組織以及幫助 IQVIA 在前所未有的時期保持韌性至關重要。

  • Mike brings deep industry experience, and he has held key financial industry roles across IQVIA, including as CFO of our R&D Solutions business, and prior to that, as CFO of our IQVIA Laboratory business. He works closely with me and the senior team for years now and is very well positioned to lead our finance function into IQVIA's next phase of growth.

    Mike 擁有豐富的行業經驗,曾在 IQVIA 擔任過重要的財務行業職務,包括擔任研發解決方案業務的首席財務官,在此之前,他還擔任過 IQVIA 實驗室業務的首席財務官。多年來,他一直與我和高階團隊密切合作,完全有能力帶領我們的財務部門進入 IQVIA 的下一個成長階段。

  • Let me now turn to Ron for more details on our financial performance.

    現在請羅恩詳細介紹一下我們的財務表現。

  • Ronald Bruehlman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ronald Bruehlman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Ari, and good morning to everyone. Let's start by reviewing revenue. Our third quarter revenue of $4,100 million grew 5.2% on a reported basis and 3.9% constant currency. Now excluding COVID-related work from this year and last, revenue grew 4.5% at constant currency, and this included about 1.5 points of contribution from acquisitions.

    謝謝你,阿里,大家早安。我們先來回顧一下收入情況。第三季營收為 41 億美元,按報告匯率計算成長 5.2%,以固定匯率計算成長 3.9%。如果排除今年和去年與新冠疫情相關的工作,以固定匯率計算,營收成長了 4.5%,其中包括收購帶來的約 1.5 個百分點的貢獻。

  • Technology & Analytics Solutions revenue for the third quarter was $1,631 million, that was up 5% reported and 3.3% at constant currency. R&D Solutions third quarter revenue was $2,260 million, growing 4.5% reported and 3.4% at constant currency. Now excluding the step-down in COVID-related revenues, R&DS revenue grew 4.5% at constant currency. And lastly, our Contract Sales & Medical Solutions business, or CSMS, grew revenue of $209 million, and that was up 16.1% reported and 13.9% at constant currency.

    第三季技術與分析解決方案營收為 16.31 億美元,按報告匯率計算成長 5%,以固定匯率計算成長 3.3%。研發解決方案第三季營收為 22.6 億美元,按報告匯率計算成長 4.5%,以固定匯率計算成長 3.4%。如果排除與新冠疫情相關的收入下降,研發收入以固定匯率計算成長了 4.5%。最後,我們的合約銷售和醫療解決方案業務(CSMS)收入增長了 2.09 億美元,按報告匯率計算增長了 16.1%,按固定匯率計算增長了 13.9%。

  • Year-to-date revenue for the company was $11,946 million. That's up 4.4% reported and 3.7% at constant currency, and excluding all COVID-related work, our year-to-date growth was approximately 4.5% at constant currency. Tech & Analytics Solutions revenue was $4,805 million year-to-date, that's up 6.7% reported and 5.8% in constant currency. R&D Solutions year-to-date revenue of $6,563 million was up 2.5% at actual FX rates and 1.9% at constant currency. Excluding COVID-related work from both periods, revenue grew approximately 3.5% at constant currency. And I'd say CSMS year-to-date revenue of $578 million was up 6.8% reported and 5.9% at constant currency.

    該公司今年迄今的收入為 119.46 億美元。以報告數據計算,增長了 4.4%,按固定匯率計算增長了 3.7%;如果排除所有與新冠疫情相關的工作,我們今年迄今為止的增長按固定匯率計算約為 4.5%。截至目前,技術與分析解決方案營收為 48.05 億美元,按報告匯率計算成長 6.7%,以固定匯率計算成長 5.8%。研發解決方案業務今年迄今的營收為 65.63 億美元,以實際匯率計算成長 2.5%,以固定匯率計算成長 1.9%。如果將兩個時期內與新冠疫情相關的工作排除在外,以固定匯率計算,收入成長約 3.5%。根據統計,CSMS今年迄今的營收為5.78億美元,按報告匯率計算成長了6.8%,以固定匯率計算成長了5.9%。

  • Let's move down to P&L now. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $949 million representing growth of 1.1%, while year-to-date adjusted EBITDA was $2,742 million, that's up and even 2% year-over-year. Our third quarter GAAP net income was $331 million, and GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.93. Year-to-date, GAAP net income was $846 million or $4.86 of diluted earnings per share.

    現在我們來看損益表。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 9.49 億美元,較去年同期成長 1.1%;而年初至今調整後 EBITDA 為 27.42 億美元,較去年同期成長 2%。我們第三季的GAAP淨利為3.31億美元,GAAP稀釋後每股收益為1.93美元。今年迄今,GAAP淨利為8.46億美元,稀釋後每股收益為4.86美元。

  • Adjusted net income was $515 million for the third quarter, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was even $3. Year-to-date, adjusted net income was $1,480 million or $8.50 per share.

    第三季調整後淨收入為 5.15 億美元,調整後稀釋每股收益為 3 美元。今年迄今為止,調整後淨收入為 14.8 億美元,即每股 8.50 美元。

  • Now as already noted, we had a strong net new bookings this quarter, confirming the improved demand environment we started to see in the second quarter. The R&DS backlog at September 30 was $32.4 billion, up 4.1% year-over-year, and next 12 months revenue from backlog was $8.1 billion, that's up 4.0% year-over-year.

    如同先前所提到的,本季我們獲得了強勁的淨新增訂單,證實了我們在第二季開始看到的改善的需求環境。截至 9 月 30 日,研發積壓訂單為 324 億美元,年增 4.1%;未來 12 個月的積壓訂單收入為 81 億美元,年增 4.0%。

  • Reviewing the balance sheet. As of September 30, cash and cash equivalents totaled $1,814 million and gross debt was $14,957 million. That resulted in net debt of $13,143 million. Our net leverage ratio ended the quarter at 3.52 times trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA. And third quarter cash flow from operations was $908 million and capital expenditures were $136 million, which resulted in record free cash flow for the quarter of $772 million.

    審查資產負債表。截至9月30日,現金及現金等價物總額為18.14億美元,總負債為149.57億美元。這導致淨債務達到131.43億美元。本季末,我們的淨槓桿比率是過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 3.52 倍。第三季經營活動產生的現金流為 9.08 億美元,資本支出為 1.36 億美元,產生了創紀錄的季度自由現金流 7.72 億美元。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Mike Fedock, who will share details on our guidance. Mike?

    現在我將把發言權交給麥克費多克,他將分享我們指導方針的詳細內容。麥克風?

  • Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with our full year guidance. We are confirming our full year 2025 guidance and are narrowing the ranges for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted earnings per share, and are maintaining the midpoint of our prior guidance.

    謝謝你,羅恩,大家早安。讓我們先來看看全年業績預期。我們確認了 2025 年全年業績指引,並縮小了收入、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後攤薄每股收益的範圍,同時維持了先前指引的中點。

  • We expect revenue to be between $16,150 million and $16,250 million, representing year-over-year growth of 4.8% to 5.5% or 5.2% at the midpoint. This revenue guidance includes approximately $100 million of COVID-related revenue step down entirely in R&DS, approximately 100 basis points of tailwind from foreign exchange and approximately 150 basis points of contribution from acquisitions. These assumptions are unchanged from the prior guide.

    我們預計營收將在 161.5 億美元至 162.5 億美元之間,年增 4.8% 至 5.5%,中間值為 5.2%。該收入預期包括約 1 億美元的 COVID 相關收入下降(全部來自研發),約 100 個基點的外匯利好,以及約 150 個基點的收購貢獻。這些假設與先前的指南相同。

  • We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $3,775 million and $3,800 million, growing 2.5% to 3.1% year-over-year or 2.8% at the midpoint. We expect adjusted diluted EPS to be between $11.85 and $11.95 of 6.5% to 7.4% versus prior year or about 7% at the midpoint.

    我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 37.75 億美元至 38 億美元之間,年增 2.5% 至 3.1%,中間值為 2.8%。我們預計調整後的稀釋每股收益將在 11.85 美元至 11.95 美元之間,比上年增長 6.5% 至 7.4%,或以中間值計算約為 7%。

  • Now turning to the fourth quarter. We're expecting revenue to be between $4,204 million and $4,304 million, which represents year-over-year growth of 6.2% to 8.7%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1,033 million and $1,058 million, representing growth of 3.7% to 6.2% versus prior year. And adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be between $3.35 and $3.45, which represents year-over-year growth of 7.4% to 10.6%. And this guidance assumes that foreign currency rates as of October 27 continue for the balance of the year.

    現在進入第四節。我們預計營收將在 42.04 億美元至 43.04 億美元之間,年增 6.2% 至 8.7%。調整後 EBITDA 預計在 10.33 億美元至 10.58 億美元之間,比上年增長 3.7% 至 6.2%。經調整後的稀釋每股盈餘預計在 3.35 美元至 3.45 美元之間,年增 7.4% 至 10.6%。該指導意見假設 10 月 27 日的外匯匯率將在今年剩餘時間內保持不變。

  • So to summarize, in the third quarter, we delivered strong top and bottom line results as well as record high free cash flow. R&DS net bookings were $2.6 billion, growing 13% year-over-year and resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.15 times.

    總而言之,第三季我們實現了強勁的營收和利潤成長,以及創紀錄的自由現金流。研發淨訂單金額為 26 億美元,年增 13%,淨訂單出貨比為 1.15 倍。

  • The forward-looking demand metrics in the clinical business continue to trend in the right direction, with 20% of our [free flow] growth year-over-year and sequential improvements in client decision-making time lines. TAS performed well and delivered solid results driven by ongoing momentum from drug launches and the strength of our broader commercial portfolio, and we reaffirmed our full year 2025 guidance.

    臨床業務的前瞻性需求指標持續朝著正確的方向發展,我們的[自由流動]年增了 20%,客戶決策時間線也逐年改善。TAS 表現出色,憑藉藥物上市的持續勢頭和我們更廣泛的商業組合的實力,取得了穩健的業績,我們重申了 2025 年全年業績指引。

  • With that, let me hand it back to the operator for Q&A.

    那麼,現在我把電話交還給接線員,進行問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • David Windley, Jefferies.

    David Windley,傑富瑞集團。

  • Dave Windley - Analyst

    Dave Windley - Analyst

  • Ari, I wanted to ask you about what I think you call your see more, win more strategy and how that has played out through the middle of the year or through this year in terms of contributing to the RFP flows improvement that you're highlighting as well as your win rate, and how we should think about an amount, if any, price competitiveness you're applying in that strategy and how that plays out through the P&L as that business converts to revenue.

    阿里,我想問你所謂的「看得更多,贏得更多」的策略,以及這個策略在今年年中或今年年初是如何發揮作用的,比如它對你強調的 RFP 流程改進和中標率的貢獻,以及我們應該如何看待你在這個策略中應用的價格競爭力(如果有的話),以及當業務轉化為收入時,這種競爭力是如何體現我們的。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Well, usually, we keep the best for the last, but you start with the big strategic question. So let's start with that. Okay. Well, look, the strike in bookings momentum and RFP flow, I think we have to say, and we can see it in the industry in general, I think reflects a reduction in the level of uncertainty in the market environment and the macro political environment.

    好的。通常情況下,我們會把最好的留到最後,但首先要解決的是一個重大的策略問題。那我們就從這裡開始吧。好的。嗯,你看,預訂勢頭和 RFP 流量的下降,我認為我們必須說,而且我們可以在整個行業中看到,我認為這反映了市場環境和宏觀政治環境的不確定性水平的降低。

  • I think there have been a few developments that have sort of helped [tough] decision-making at large pharma on certain programs favorably; and the climate overall has improved. That's undeniable in our sector. So that certainly is a big driver of our growth.

    我認為有一些進展對大型製藥公司在某些專案上做出艱難決策起到了積極作用;而且整體氛圍也得到了改善。在我們這個行業,這是不爭的事實。所以這無疑是我們成長的一大驅動力。

  • The specifics of our see more, win more strategy, which we started earlier this year, which, as you know, now has a lot of imitators has borne fruit as well in the sense that we've been looking at markets that we previously hadn't been touching and had left some more marginal players essentially [in the] monopoly situation in all segments, and we've decided to go after that.

    我們今年稍早啟動的「看得更多,贏得更多」策略的具體細節,正如您所知,現在有很多模仿者,也取得了成果,因為我們一直在關注以前沒有涉足的市場,這些市場基本上讓一些邊緣參與者在所有細分市場都處於壟斷地位,我們決定進入這些市場。

  • The pricing conversation is a little bit overdone in my opinion. In a climate where markets dynamics were unfavorable with a lot of uncertainty and less deals to be had, there was more competition on pricing, and all we did in the first part of the year, was to align to those pricing discounts that were being offered as opposed to walk away in order to continue to build our book of business.

    我認為關於價格的討論有點過度了。在市場動態不利、充滿不確定性且交易機會較少的環境下,價格競爭更加激烈。今年上半年,我們所做的就是接受這些價格折扣,而不是放棄,以繼續拓展我們的業務。

  • We don't see that trend continuing. It hasn't been an issue at all and certainly, this past quarter and the opposite, we walked away from deals. And we think that the sector in general is a lot healthier in terms of market dynamics, the level of uncertainty has gone down and pricing has returned to normal levels.

    我們認為這種趨勢不會持續下去。這根本不是個問題,而且恰恰相反,上個季度我們放棄了一些交易。我們認為,就市場動態而言,該行業總體上更加健康,不確定性水平已經下降,價格也已恢復到正常水平。

  • You had a question, a follow-up on P&L implications. Look, we have the $32 billion-plus backlog, and only a tiny portion of that was subject to a few discounts that we did earlier in the year. Those -- the revenues associated with those things are going to bleed over our P&L already in the next five years, and we do not expect that to have any impact whatsoever on our P&L going forward.

    您有一個問題,是關於損益影響的後續問題。你看,我們有超過 320 億美元的積壓訂單,而今年早些時候我們進行的一些折扣優惠只惠及了其中一小部分。這些——與這些項目相關的收入將在未來五年內侵蝕我們的損益表,但我們預計這不會對我們未來的損益表產生任何影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Justin Bowers, Deutsche Bank.

    賈斯汀·鮑爾斯,德意志銀行。

  • Justin Bowers - Analyst

    Justin Bowers - Analyst

  • So Ari, it sounds like the business environment is improving, fundings up, consumer confidence improving. And both of the segments, TAS and R&DS are strengthening at least on a two-year stack basis. Is this momentum that we should expect to continue over the next few quarters and into 2026? And maybe if you just give us a glimpse of how you're thinking about those two.

    所以阿里,聽起來商業環境正在改善,資金增加,消費者信心也在增強。TAS 和 R&DS 這兩個部門至少在兩年的時間跨度內都在不斷加強。這種成長動能能否在未來幾季甚至2026年持續下去?或許您可以讓我們了解您對這兩個問題的看法。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, look, I can't -- I don't have a crystal ball here, and I'm not going to give you 2026. This was a clever way of asking me about 2026 guidance. We're not going to do that here. As you know, we usually provide guidance for the year concurrent with the release of our fourth quarter and full year earnings early in the year. So end of January or early February, we'll provide that. We are in the midst of our planning process and still in October.

    是的。好吧,聽著,我不能——我沒有水晶球,我也不會告訴你 2026 年會發生什麼。這是向我詢問 2026 年指導意見的一種巧妙方式。我們在這裡不會這樣做。如您所知,我們通常會在年初發布第四季和全年財報的同時,提供全年業績指引。所以我們會在一月底或二月初提供。我們正處於規劃過程中,現在還是十月。

  • And -- but look, what I can tell you is we are going to deliver this year over 5% in top line revenue growth, which frankly, given what we've been through and the environment we've been in, in the past 1.5 years, 2 years, I think is a very, very strong performance. And you can see that compared to our larger -- certainly the larger CRO peers, we are doing very, very well.

    但是——不過我可以告訴你們的是,我們今年的營收成長率將超過 5%,坦白說,考慮到我們過去 1.5 到 2 年所經歷的一切以及我們所處的環境,我認為這是一個非常非常強勁的業績。你可以看到,與我們規模更大的——當然是規模更大的CRO同行相比,我們做得非常好。

  • So I cannot tell yet what '26 will be in the next few quarters, but I mean, look, I would be surprised if revenue growth in '26 is not at least the same or better than the growth that we are seeing this year. So I say that with a certain amount of confidence.

    所以,我現在還無法預測 2026 年未來幾季的情況,但我的意思是,你看,如果 2026 年的營收成長至少沒有達到或超過我們今年看到的成長水平,我會感到驚訝。所以我對此有一定的信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Elizabeth Anderson, Evercore ISI.

    Elizabeth Anderson,Evercore ISI。

  • Elizabeth Anderson - Analyst

    Elizabeth Anderson - Analyst

  • Congrats, Ron, on your retirement. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit, Ari, about some of the differences between what you're seeing on the pharma side versus the biotech side. I think you covered the biotech side nicely in the see more, win more answer. But just sort of wanted to peel back a little bit on the pharma side as well.

    恭喜羅恩光榮退休。阿里,我想請你談談你認為製藥業和生技產業之間存在的一些差異。我認為你在「看得越多,贏得越多」的回答中已經很好地涵蓋了生物技術方面的內容。但我也想稍微放鬆一下對製藥業的了解。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • In the large pharma side. Look, large pharma went through a lot of transformation internally in terms of their investment programs. You -- going back to the [IRA], there was this whole phase of reprioritization of programs and reviews of their pipelines, which led to an elevated level of cancellations due to this reprioritization activity. Last year for 1 year, 1.5 years, beginning mid of '23 and certainly continuing through '24, we see that activity as having essentially being completed.

    在大型製藥公司方面。你看,大型製藥公司在投資計畫方面經歷了內部的巨大變化。回到[IRA],當時有一個階段對專案進行重新排序,並審查其流程,這導致了由於重新排序活動而造成的專案取消率上升。從 2023 年年中開始,一直持續到 2024 年,我們認為去年到今年 1.5 年的時間裡,這項活動基本上已經完成了。

  • And we haven't seen any further cancellations as a result of that type of activity. So we think that the pipelines are now fully sanitized. Of course, there will continue to be cancellations that can -- but they are all like more business as usual due to futility or other reasons and nothing unusual.

    而且,由於這類活動,我們還沒有看到任何進一步的取消。所以我們認為管道現在已經完全消毒了。當然,取消的情況還會繼續發生——但這都只是因為無意義或其他原因造成的,並沒有什麼不尋常之處。

  • Large pharma actually, the RFP flow for our pharma is very strong. I mentioned that our RFP flow growth year-over-year is 20%. And that applies to large pharma and to EBP equally. I mean there's a strong, strong momentum. And again, that's helped by the more calming environment and perhaps more certainty around what's coming. And it's also held by the fact that these reprioritizations have been largely completed. And the programs that are now on the table are programs that our clients want to engage in and want to go forward with.

    實際上,大型製藥公司在我們製藥業的招標需求非常強勁。我提到過,我們的 RFP 數量年增了 20%。這一點同樣適用於大型製藥公司和實證實踐。我的意思是,這股勢頭非常強勁。而且,更平靜的環境以及對未來更確定的預期也對此有所幫助。而且,這些重新調整優先事項的工作也基本上完成了,這也支持了這個觀點。而目前擺在桌面上的這些方案,正是我們的客戶想要參與並希望推進的方案。

  • Our cancellations, I always say in recent years were about $0.5 billion a quarter, plus or minus a couple of hundred million dollars. So they could range between $300 million and $700 million in a given quarter. So a couple of billion dollars plus year in, year out. In '24, we had more than 50% higher cancellation than that by over $3 billion in '24 because of this reprioritizations from large pharma. That essentially is behind us. And year-to-date, our cancellations portal, the regular pattern, I think, [stretches] somewhere between $500 million -- around on average, about $550 million per quarter, I saw the numbers yesterday.

    近年來,我們的取消訂單金額約每季 5 億美元,上下浮動數億美元。因此,它們在一個季度內的收入可能在 3 億美元到 7 億美元之間。所以每年都有幾十億美元以上。2024 年,由於大型製藥公司重新調整優先事項,我們的取消訂單金額比 2024 年高出 50% 以上,金額超過 30 億美元。那基本上已經是過去的事了。今年迄今為止,我們的取消入口網站的正常模式,我認為,[延伸到]大約 5 億美元——平均每個季度大約 5.5 億美元,我昨天看到了這些數字。

  • I think nothing much to talk about this quarter. I think we're a little bit towards the higher end of that range. But again, not because of reprioritizations, it's simply normal course of business. Our gross bookings were very strong, very, very strong this year. And you can see that also in our $2.6 billion of net bookings, which were up 13% year-over-year, up sequentially mid-single digits. And the trough we experienced, Q1, part of it was the trough. We don't see that in the details.

    我覺得這季沒什麼好說的。我認為我們稍微接近這個範圍的上限。但再次強調,這並非因為重新調整了優先事項,而只是正常的業務流程。今年我們的總預訂量非常強勁,非常非常強勁。這一點也可以從我們 26 億美元的淨預訂中看出,該額同比增長 13%,環比增長 50%(中等個位數)。而我們經歷的低谷,Q1,其中一部分就是低谷。細節上看不出來。

  • So again, large pharma dynamics returning to normal business conditions to trending towards normal business conditions. And biotech pharma is improving, which actually is a driver of EBP growth. And that, again, is reflected in our bookings and in our RFP flow as well.

    所以,大型製藥公司的動態再次恢復到正常的商業環境,並朝著正常的商業環境發展。生物技術製藥行業正在進步,這實際上是 EBP 成長的驅動力。這一點也體現在我們的預訂情況和 RFP 流程中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Cherny, Leerink Partners.

    Michael Cherny,Leerink Partners。

  • Michael Cherny - Equity Analyst

    Michael Cherny - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe if I can ask a little bit about TAS. Nice growth against, obviously, a tough comp. As you think about the pathway forward, what do you see as the contributions you're getting from some of your inorganic advancements? And where do you see the best opportunities to continue to expand that business above and beyond your own R&D, talk AI, talk anything along that vein, that would be great.

    或許我可以問一下關於TAS的問題。當然,面對強勁的競爭對手,這樣的成長還是相當不錯的。在思考未來的發展方向時,您認為您在一些非有機成長方面的進展能為您帶來哪些貢獻?那麼,除了您自己的研發之外,您認為在哪些方面有最好的機會繼續拓展業務?例如人工智慧,或是任何相關的話題,那就太好了。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Mike. Well, you spoke about inorganic. I think we said the 1.5 points of the contribution to the company as a whole. As you know, almost has been the case. The bulk of that is in TAS. So I think in this past quarter, we did a large acquisition that was in R&DS and [CSMS]. I think that we spent [$485 million] that we spent in total. And most of that is one acquisition called the NEXT Oncology, which is an SMO specialty in oncology, very attractive business. We acquired this end of Q3. So not much contribution in Q3. And the inorganic contribution to R&DS will be a few million dollars, I guess in the double digits like $50 million or thereabouts of revenue to R&DS in Q4.

    謝謝你,麥克。嗯,你剛才談到了無機物。我想我們說過,這1.5分對公司整體的貢獻。如你所知,這種情況幾乎一直如此。大部分都在TAS。所以我覺得在上個季度,我們進行了一項大型收購,涉及研發和[CSMS]領域。我認為我們總共花了[4.85億美元]。其中大部分來自一項名為 NEXT Oncology 的收購,這是一家專注於腫瘤領域的 SMO 公司,業務非常有吸引力。我們在第三季末完成了收購。所以第三季貢獻不大。而對研發的非有機貢獻將達到幾百萬美元,我估計在兩位數,例如第四季研發收入的 5,000 萬美元左右。

  • With respect to TAS, we didn't do much in Q3. And so I guess the acquisition contribution for the year -- well, we did the CSMS deal as well, right, which is -- it's small, obviously. But since CSMS is a small segment, it was a large piece of it. So not much in TAS in Q3. In general, we try to buy technology companies, companies that can add capabilities to our suite of products, analytics companies, there's a lot of innovation, as you know, in the AI space, medical affairs, (technical difficulty) real world. Real world is a very strong -- real world evidence was really very, very strong in the quarter, and we expect that to continue into the future.

    關於TAS,我們在第三季並沒有做太多工作。所以,我猜今年的收購貢獻——嗯,我們也完成了CSMS的交易,對吧,這——顯然很小。但由於 CSMS 只是一個很小的細分市場,所以它佔了很大一部分。所以第三季TAS方面沒什麼大動作。總的來說,我們嘗試收購科技公司、能夠為我們的產品套件增加功能的公司、分析公司,正如你所知,人工智慧領域、醫療事務領域(技術難度)以及現實世界都有很多創新。現實世界的證據非常有力——本季現實世界的證據確實非常非常有力,我們預計這種情況將持續到未來。

  • So yeah, I mean, for the year, again, 1.5 points, I would say 50%, 60% of that will be TAS and the rest for the year, right, 'for 25, and then the rest R&DS and then a little bit CSMS.

    所以,是的,我的意思是,就這一年而言,再說一遍,1.5 分,我會說 50%、60% 將是 TAS,其餘的就這一年,對吧,'for 25,然後剩下的 R&DS,然後還有一點 CSMS。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

    Shlomo Rosenbaum,Stifel。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • Ari, before I ask you a question, I just want to also commend Ron. But Ron, I've seen you retire before, and I'm not fully convinced to you're gone right now.

    阿里,在我問你問題之前,我也想稱讚羅恩。但是羅恩,我以前見過你退休,所以我現在並不完全相信你已經離開了。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The wrong words to describe Ron, not retiring.

    用「不退休」來形容羅恩並不恰當。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • Yes, you've dragged him out of retirement in the past already. So I don't know. Ari, I want to ask you to talk a little bit about the subcomponents in TAS and how they're growing in terms of real-world evidence and consulting and analytics.

    是的,你以前就把他從退休狀態中拉出來過。所以我也不知道。阿里,我想請你談談TAS的各個子組件,以及它們在現實世界證據、諮詢和分析方面的發展。

  • And just some of the trends that you're seeing there. I know consulting often kind of leads the trend in terms of you see that picking up. That means that the environment is getting better. And maybe you could just talk a little bit about each of the components and what you're seeing and maybe what that says about the market.

    以及你在那裡看到的一些趨勢。我知道諮詢行業往往引領著行業趨勢,你會看到它正在蓬勃發展。這意味著環境正在改善。或許您可以簡單談談每個組成部分,以及您觀察到的情況,還有這些情況對市場有何啟示。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So look, the growth rate in Q3 is hard to derive big trends because, as you know, Q3 in general is the weakest quarter in the year. But specifically, this year, we had a [tough] compared with last year, it was the growth of TAS in Q3, last year it was like 8.6%. I want to say that (technical difficulty) 8.6% growth last year.

    是的。所以你看,第三季的成長率很難得出大的趨勢,因為,正如你所知,第三季通常是一年中最疲軟的季度。但具體來說,今年與去年相比,我們遇到了[困難],第三季TAS的成長情況,去年同期約為8.6%。我想說的是(技術上困難)去年成長了 8.6%。

  • So we knew we had a tough compare this quarter. But as I mentioned in my introductory remarks, sequentially, we were slightly up and usually because Q3 is the toughest quarter, given nothing happens for 6 weeks in Europe. It used to be 3 weeks, then 4 and now 6 and going to 8, and where nobody is working.

    所以我們知道本季面臨很高的同比基數。但正如我在開場白中提到的,從季度來看,我們略有增長,這通常是因為第三季度是最艱難的季度,因為歐洲有 6 週的時間什麼都沒有。以前是 3 週,然後是 4 週,現在是 6 週,而且要到 8 週了,期間沒有人工作。

  • So I think that the performance this quarter was very strong. It was affected largely by the real-world evidence, which was very, very strong. And everything else was -- obviously, data is usually low single digits. And everything else was between low to kind of mid-single-digit growth against very fast compares, same for consulting.

    所以我認為本季的業績非常強勁。這很大程度上受到了現實世界證據的影響,而這些證據非常非常有力。而其他所有數據——顯然,通常都是個位數。其他所有行業的成長率都處於個位數低到中等水平,與去年同期相比成長非常快,諮詢行業也是如此。

  • Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

    Shlomo Rosenbaum - Analyst

  • Are you seeing a pickup in that consulting?

    你覺得諮詢業務有回升的跡象嗎?

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • You will recall that -- I know you are asking consulting because it's kind of the most discrete, and it's positive in terms of being an indicator when things were trending negative territory, consulting went down very rapidly in the '24, end of '23 or the first part of '24 time frame, consulting was down actually negative. One of the [boards] maybe it was on negative double digits. But it's positive this quarter. And again, everything outside real world evidence in aggregate was mid-single digits or thereabouts.

    您應該還記得——我知道您問諮詢行業是因為它相對來說比較特殊,而且從某種程度上來說,它也是一個積極的指標,當事情朝著負面方向發展時,諮詢行業在 2024 年、2023 年底或 2024 年上半年迅速下降,諮詢行業實際上出現了負增長。其中一塊板子上的數字可能是負兩位數。但本季業績為正。再次強調,現實世界證據以外的所有其他因素加起來也都只有個位數左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Coldwell, Baird.

    埃里克·科德威爾,貝爾德。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • I'll stick on the TAS question here just to make sure we're all level set for the fourth quarter. Back in February, you guided to $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion. That was quite a while ago. A lot of things changed. But if I use that original range and I take out what you've done year-to-date, that would put the implied fourth quarter revenue guidance about $100 million to $300 million below the Street on TAS.

    我在這裡再提出 TAS 的問題,以確保我們為第四季做好充分準備。今年二月,你們曾預測營收將達到 63 億美元至 65 億美元。那是很久以前的事了。很多事情都改變了。但如果我採用最初的預期範圍,並剔除今年迄今的業績,那麼隱含的第四季營收預期將比 TAS 的預期低 1 億至 3 億美元。

  • That's a big range and obviously a lower number than more consensus lies today. So I'm just hoping you can give us a little specificity on what you're thinking for TAS in the fourth quarter so we aren't ahead of our skates here.

    這是一個很大的範圍,而且顯然比目前大多數人的普遍看法要低。所以,我只是希望您能具體說明一下您對 TAS 在第四季度的想法,這樣我們就不會操之過急了。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I'm not sure. You're talking about our targets and then you talked about the Street.

    是的。我不知道。你先是談到了我們的目標,然後又談到了華爾街。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Yes. You guided in February to $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion. And the year-to-date number through three quarters is $4.8 billion, a little over $4.8 million. So that leaves less than $1.5 billion to less than $1.7 billion to get to the full year, if I've done the number.

    是的。您在二月預測的金額為 63 億美元至 65 億美元。今年前三個季度的累計數字為 48 億美元,略高於 480 萬美元。這樣算下來,全年還剩下不到 15 億美元到不到 17 億美元,如果我的計算沒錯的話。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I want to talk to the finance team here and ask it. I don't have the number in front of me. But what you were suggesting that TAS would be lower than our guidance, I don't see that.

    是的。我想和財務團隊談談,問這個問題。我手邊沒有這個號碼。但你暗示 TAS 會低於我們的預期,我並不這麼認為。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Well, I'm not really suggesting anything. I'm hoping you can tell us -- yes, I'm hoping you'll tell us that things have changed since the February numbers, but it is possible that maybe the Street is just a little high on the segment. I mean, it looks like you'll cover it with R&DS and CSMS. But I just want to make sure we're --

    其實我並沒有提出什麼建議。我希望你能告訴我們——是的,我希望你能告訴我們,自從二月份的數據以來情況發生了變化,但也有可能華爾街對這個板塊的預期有點過高了。我的意思是,看起來你們會用研發和CSMS來涵蓋它。但我只是想確保我們--

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Eric, I think you are -- we are delivering on guidance. Is that --

    艾瑞克,我認為你是對的——我們正在落實指導意見。是嗎?--

  • Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • Eric, we'll help you with some of the Q4 details. But on a full year basis, there's been no change all year with TAS that the full year [CFx] growth rate will between sort of 5% and 6%. So there's no change there. So we can help you with the numbers.

    艾瑞克,我們會幫你處理一些第四季的細節問題。但從全年來看,TAS 全年都沒有變化,全年 [CFx] 成長率將在 5% 到 6% 之間。所以這方面沒有任何變化。所以我們可以幫您處理這些數字。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We always said 5% to 6% growth year-over-year, correct?

    我們一直說的是年增5%到6%,對吧?

  • Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • CFx.

    CFx。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • CFx.

    CFx。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • I think you said 5% to 7% constant currency, and I think -- I believe it was 5% to 7% on February 6 was the range.

    我想你說過以固定匯率計算是 5% 到 7%,而且我認為——我相信 2 月 6 日的區間是 5% 到 7%。

  • Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • We narrowed our guide in the last call there. So we're still sticking with the 5% to 6%. There's no change from the prior guide and no change where TAS is going to land in the full year.

    我們在最後一次電話中縮小了嚮導的範圍。所以我們仍然堅持5%到6%的比例。與先前的指南相比沒有任何變化,TAS 在全年的排名也不會改變。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, we don't -- well, there's no change, Eric.

    是的,我們沒有——嗯,沒有任何改變,艾瑞克。

  • Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. We'll help you with TAS with the Q4, but there's been no change.

    是的。我們會協助您解決第四季的 TAS 問題,但情況沒有任何改變。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Yes, perfect. Just want to make sure we're not ahead of our skates. I appreciate that very much.

    是的,完美。只是想確認一下我們是否操之過急。我非常感謝。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And anything else you had on this clarification?

    關於這一點,您還有其他需要澄清的地方嗎?

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • I had 42 questions, but you told us to stick to one. Let me --

    我原本有 42 個問題,但你讓我們只提一個問題。讓我--

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I am going to give you a special discount because that wasn't really a question.

    因為我剛剛問的根本不是個問題,所以我會給你一個特別折扣。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Well, look, I mean --

    嗯,你看,我的意思是--

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • That was like a commentary. You were trying to (technical difficulty).

    那就像是在做評論。你當時試圖(技術難題)

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • So I appreciate it. So I'll sneak two in. I'll take advantage and give an inch, I'll take a mile. Two things just quickly. One, do get some ongoing questions on those couple of mega trials that you mentioned earlier this year. I'm just curious if you can tell us what the status is. I think one was definitely ramping back up here in the back half, and I believe the other was still pushed out till next year, it's happening at all. So maybe just an update on the mega trials.

    所以我很感激。所以我偷偷帶兩個進去。我會佔便宜,就算只讓步一小步,也要爭取到最大的利益。兩件事,簡單說兩句話。第一,請問您今年早些時候提到的那幾項大型試驗還有一些後續問題需要解答嗎?我只是好奇您能否告訴我們目前的情況。我認為其中一項賽事在下半年肯定已經恢復進行,而另一項賽事則被推遲到明年,甚至可能根本無法進行。所以,或許可以更新一下大型試驗的最新進展。

  • And then secondarily, Ari, in your prepared commentary, you highlighted some interesting wins and you mentioned Phase I a couple of times and my historic interpretation of past conversations was that you weren't really a big Phase I shop, maybe you partnered with some others. But I'm curious on what your involvement is these days and actually managing or even having Phase I [CPU] units. Maybe give us a little more color on what you're doing there.

    其次,阿里,在你準備好的評論中,你重點介紹了一些有趣的勝利,並且你提到了 Phase I 幾次,而我根據過去談話的歷史理解是,你並不是一家大型的 Phase I 公司,也許你與其他一些公司合作過。但我很好奇您最近參與了哪些工作,以及您是否實際管理或擁有第一階段[CPU]單元。或許你可以更詳細地介紹你在那裡做的事情。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, it's a very good observation, Eric. We are seeing a lot of demand for Phase I work. And we are the network partners. We don't have a significant presence in that segment, but we are expanding, and it's why I chose to highlight a couple of examples. It also, by the way, part of our see more, win more strategy. And it happens to be that there is more demand. Things are getting sort of restarted again and the pipelines are strong. And so we are seeing more demand, and we are ourselves being more present in the segment.

    是的,艾瑞克,你的觀察非常敏銳。我們看到第一階段工程的需求量很大。我們是網路合作夥伴。我們在該領域的市場份額並不大,但我們正在擴張,這也是我選擇重點介紹幾個例子的原因。順便一提,這也是我們「看得越多,贏得越多」策略的一部分。而且恰好現在需求更大。事情正在逐步重啟,管道運作良好。因此,我們看到需求增加,我們也加大了在該領域的投入。

  • Ronald Bruehlman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ronald Bruehlman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And Phase I in oncology is a little bit different because you're not dealing with healthy volunteers. So it tends to feed your later business than other Phase I trials. So there is some distinction there, and that's what's next in oncology with Phase I oncology.

    是的。腫瘤學領域的 I 期臨床試驗略有不同,因為受試者不是健康的志願者。因此,與其他 I 期試驗相比,它更有利於你後續的業務發展。所以這其中存在一些區別,而這正是腫瘤學領域下一步的發展方向——I期腫瘤學。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And then the 2 trials.

    是的。然後是兩次審判。

  • Ronald Bruehlman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Ronald Bruehlman - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, the 2 trials, there's no change there. We don't have anything factored into our fourth quarter guidance for revenue burn from either of them. So I suppose that's a slight change from what we said.

    是的,這兩次試驗的結果都沒有改變。我們在第四季營收預期中沒有將這兩家公司造成的營收消耗納入考量。所以,我想這和我們之前說的略有不同。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • It's basically a little push out to the year. And it's not contemplated in the guidance. Yes. Bear in mind that we mentioned these -- what is it, like one year ago at this time because it caused us at the time to change our guidance for R&DS. These were fast burning and had already gotten started and they were interrupted. And so that caused us to change our value for R&DS in the fourth quarter, for the fourth quarter of last year. And so we had to mention it.

    這基本上是對今年的一次小延期。而指導意見中並未考慮到這一點。是的。請記住,我們大約在一年前的這個時候提到過這些——因為它導致我們當時改變了研發指導方針。這些燃燒速度很快,已經開始燃燒,但被打斷了。因此,我們調整了去年第四季研發投入的數值。所以我們必須提一下這件事。

  • We also mentioned specific trials to the extent we can, and we try to be very careful because we are mindful of confidentiality for our clients and so on. So we cannot say very much. But we do mention it when there is a significant event attached to one trial, in this case, was two, and that caused us to change anything in our numbers. But bear in mind, at any point in time, we're working on a couple of thousand trials.

    我們也盡可能提及具體的審判,我們非常謹慎,因為我們很注重客戶的隱私等等。所以我們不能說太多。但是,當某個試驗中出現重大事件時,我們會提及此事。在本例中,有兩起重大事件導致我們更改了資料。但請記住,在任何時候,我們都在進行數千次試驗。

  • And we keep building backlog, as you saw. And thankfully, we have had very positive momentum on our bookings, and it's continuing. So we feel good about that and it continue to stagger on our book of business. So yes, but -- which may enable us to continue to deliver, and we've been better on R&DS even without those trials resuming this year.

    正如你所看到的,我們的積壓訂單還在增加。值得慶幸的是,我們的預訂情況一直保持著非常積極的勢頭,而且還在繼續增長。所以我們對此感到滿意,而且它繼續穩步推進我們的業務。所以,是的,但是——這可能使我們能夠繼續交付,而且即使今年這些試驗沒有恢復,我們在研發方面也做得更好了。

  • Thank you, Eric. You want one more question? One more.

    謝謝你,埃里克。你還想問最後一個問題嗎?還有一個。

  • Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Fedock - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • Next question, operator. This will be our last question.

    下一個問題,操作員。這將是我們最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Garro, Stephens.

    傑夫·加羅,史蒂芬斯。

  • Jeff Garro - Equity Analyst

    Jeff Garro - Equity Analyst

  • I want to ask more about AI and maybe I'll try to make it a two-parter. First part being if you have any insights how AI is changing your customers' business models and specifically their appetite for outsourcing? And then the second part would be, how is IQVIA using AI internally to deliver results for clients that may be a little bit more efficiently and whether you have any visibility into potential gross margin improvements from those internal use cases?

    我想多了解一些關於人工智慧的問題,也許我會把它分成兩個部分來解答。首先,您是否了解人工智慧如何改變客戶的商業模式,特別是他們對業務外包的需求?第二部分是,IQVIA 如何在內部使用人工智慧來更有效率地為客戶提供結果,以及您是否了解這些內部用例在提高毛利率方面的潛在作用?

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So thank you, Jeff. We've spoken about this in the past. And so far, we have about 90 AI agents in development that cover 25 use cases, and we continue to progress that. By early '27, we plan to develop 500 highly specialized agents. And what this do is they essentially eliminate a lot of physical labor from the tasks that we perform for our clients.

    是的。所以,謝謝你,傑夫。我們以前討論過這個問題。目前,我們正在開發約 90 個 AI 代理,涵蓋 25 個用例,我們將繼續進行這項工作。到 2027 年初,我們計劃培養 500 名高度專業化的經紀人。這樣做實際上可以消除我們為客戶執行任務時所需的大量體力勞動。

  • So currently, in the second part of your question first, certainly, that will help improve our margins longer term. Now it takes time to deploy, obviously, and it takes time to translate that into margin improvements. We've had great examples.

    所以目前,首先,關於您問題的第二部分,可以肯定的是,這將有助於從長遠來看提高我們的利潤率。顯然,部署需要時間,將其轉化為利潤提升也需要時間。我們有很多很好的例子。

  • On the commercial side, we have -- we use, for example, AI tools to compare patient cohorts to each other and highlight differences with natural language output, which leads to improvements in cycle times from several weeks to a couple of weeks. We really have a lot of examples and it takes a long time to recite those. But we see significant value in continuing to do more with less to deploying agents within our internal processes.

    在商業方面,例如,我們使用人工智慧工具來比較不同的患者群體,並透過自然語言輸出突出顯示差異,從而將週期時間從幾週縮短到幾週。我們有很多例子,要一一列舉需要很長時間。但我們認為,繼續以更少的資源做更多的事情,在內部流程中部署代理,具有重要的價值。

  • For our clients, I gave a number of examples in my introductory remarks. Our clients are very interested, of course, in using AI. So early, early on before we get involved in discovery, there's a lot of focus from our clients in the discovery space to try to use AI to sort out molecules and try to identify the quote unquote, most likely, to succeed trials to tackle a specific disease. We participate a little bit with some models and some tools that we have.

    在開場白中,我舉了很多例子給客戶。當然,我們的客戶對使用人工智慧非常感興趣。因此,在我們參與藥物發現之前,我們的客戶在藥物發現領域非常注重利用人工智慧來篩選分子,並嘗試找出「最有可能」在治療特定疾病的試驗中取得成功的分子。我們利用我們現有的一些模型和工具參與其中。

  • But later on -- look, the issue on the clinical side is that it's highly regulated and you've got to go through standard processes that are defined by regulations and you have to use the intermediary stasis between those regulatory interactions to utilize and deploy AI. At the sites, it's very helpful. And our clients are using, of course, AI in their technology tools that some of which are our tools that they use commercially.

    但後來——你看,臨床方面的問題是,它受到嚴格監管,你必須遵循法規定義的標準流程,並且你必須利用這些監管互動之間的中間狀態來利用和部署人工智慧。在這些網站上,它非常有用。當然,我們的客戶正在他們的技術工具中使用人工智慧,其中一些工具是我們提供的,他們將其用於商業用途。

  • They use AI. I gave a few examples to manage their promotion campaigns, marketing campaigns. They use AI to get patient insights in the real world. Real world is a big area for us, and one of the reasons we experienced such great growth is we've got very advanced capabilities given our vast information assets in real-world patient data using AI tools and try to evaluate how a drug behaves in the real world. Using AI becomes a great, great opportunity. So these are the areas.

    他們使用人工智慧。我舉了一些例子來說明如何管理他們的推廣活動和行銷活動。他們利用人工智慧技術來獲取現實世界中的患者資訊。現實世界對我們來說是一個很大的領域,我們之所以能取得如此巨大的成長,其中一個原因是,我們擁有非常先進的能力,這得益於我們在現實世界患者數據方面的大量資訊資產,我們利用人工智慧工具來評估藥物在現實世界中的表現。利用人工智慧將帶來絕佳的機會。這些就是這些區域。

  • Now with respect to the margin, as you know, we've had a lot of -- we have some margin headwinds certainly this year because of more pass-throughs largely because of the FX tailwind, which all -- which comes with our profits and a little bit of the mix, for example, in Q3, CSMS was stronger and CSMS with lower margin.

    關於利潤率,正如您所知,我們今年確實面臨一些利潤率方面的不利因素,因為更多的成本轉嫁主要是由於外匯利好,所有這些都與我們的利潤和一些組合有關,例如,在第三季度,CSMS 表現強勁,而 CSMS 的利潤率較低。

  • So when you have market headwinds like that, certainly, we are counting on our usual cost reduction programs, offshoring and so on. But longer term, AI, certainly AI enablement will help mitigate those headwinds and help us long term improve margins. Thank you, and I think the team will be available for follow-up questions as always. Thank you.

    所以,當遇到這樣的市場逆風時,我們當然會依靠我們慣常的成本削減計劃、離岸外包等等。但從長遠來看,人工智慧,尤其是人工智慧賦能,將有助於緩解這些不利因素,並幫助我們從長遠角度提高利潤率。謝謝,我想團隊會像往常一樣回答後續問題。謝謝。

  • Thank you for taking the time today.

    感謝您今天抽出時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (multiple speakers) I will turn it back over to you.

    (多人發言)我把它交還給你。

  • Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ari Bousbib - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you. Thanks for taking the time to join us today, and we look forward to speaking with you again on the 2025 fourth quarter and full year earnings call. The team will be available for the rest of the day to take any follow-up questions you might have. Thank you.

    謝謝。感謝您今天抽出時間參加我們的電話會議,我們期待在 2025 年第四季和全年財報電話會議上再次與您交流。團隊將在當天剩餘時間隨時為您解答任何後續問題。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。