Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Intrepid Potash, Inc., third-quarter 2024 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。這是會議主持人。歡迎參加 Intrepid Potash, Inc. 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。提醒一下，所有參與者都處於只聽模式，會議正在錄音。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Evan Mapes, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係部門的 Evan Mapes。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss and review Intrepid's third-quarter 2024 results. With me today is Intrepid's CFO and acting Principal Executive Officer, Matt Preston. Also available to answer questions is our VP of Sales and Marketing, Zachry Adams; and our VP of Operations, John Galassini.

大家早安。感謝您加入我們討論和回顧 Intrepid 2024 年第三季的業績。今天和我一起的是 Intrepid 的財務長兼代理執行長 Matt Preston。我們的銷售和行銷副總裁 Zachry Adams 也可以回答問題；以及我們的營運副總裁 John Galassini。

Please be advised that the remarks today include forward-looking statements as defined by US securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause Intrepid's actual results to be different from those currently anticipated, are based upon information available to us today, and we assume no obligation to update them. These risks and uncertainties are described in the reports filed with the SEC which are incorporated here by reference.

請注意，今天的言論包括美國證券法定義的前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致 Intrepid 的實際結果與當前預期的不同，這些陳述基於我們今天掌握的信息，我們不承擔更新它們的義務。這些風險和不確定性在提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中有所描述，並透過引用納入本文。

During today's call, we will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operational measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in yesterday's press release, and, along with Intrepid's SEC filings, are available at intrepidpotash.com.

在今天的電話會議中，我們還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務和營運指標。昨天的新聞稿中包含了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表，並且該對帳表與 Intrepid 的 SEC 文件一起可在 intrepidpotash.com 上查閱。

I'll now turn the call over to Matt.

現在我將電話轉給馬特。

Thank you, Evan. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Intrepid and attendance for our third quarter earnings call. Before getting into our commentary, I wanted to first acknowledge and thank our Co-Founder and former Chairman and CEO, Bob Jornayvaz, for his many years of leadership. We're grateful for his contributions to Intrepid and the communities where we operate over the past 25 years.

謝謝你，埃文。大家早安。感謝您對 Intrepid 的關注並參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。在開始我們的評論之前，我想先感謝我們的聯合創始人、前董事長兼執行長 Bob Jornayvaz 多年的領導。我們感謝他過去 25 年來對 Intrepid 以及我們營運所在的社區所做的貢獻。

Bob and his family remain in our thoughts, and we continue to wish him well in his recovery. The Board's CEO search process is ongoing, and there are no additional updates to provide at this time.

我們始終在想念鮑勃和他的家人，並祝他早日康復。董事會的執行長搜尋過程正在進行中，目前沒有其他更新資訊可提供。

In the third quarter, our adjusted EBITDA totaled $10 million, a slight increase sequentially but a $7.8 million improvement compared to the third quarter of last year. Our improved performance was driven by several factors, including positive results from our successful project execution over the past two years, evidenced by two quarters in a row of higher potash production compared to the same prior year periods.

第三季度，我們的調整後 EBITDA 總計 1,000 萬美元，較上季略有增加，但與去年第三季相比增加了 780 萬美元。我們業績的改善得益於多種因素，其中包括過去兩年來我們成功實施專案所取得的正面成果，證據是連續兩個季度的鉀肥產量與去年同期相比有所增加。

With the successful commissioning of Phase 2 of the new HB injection pipeline in September, we've now completed the key projects related to our asset revitalization process, which we expect to drive improved production rates in upcoming potash production seasons. As we stated before, producing more tonnes is the most effective way to improve our unit economics and margins, and this was evident in the third quarter as our potash segment cost of goods sold per tonne improved by 14% compared to the prior year.

隨著9月份新鉀肥注入管道第二階段的成功投入使用，我們現已完成與資產振興流程相關的關鍵項目，我們預計這將推動即將到來的鉀肥生產季節的生產率提高。正如我們之前所說，生產更多的噸位是提高單位經濟效益和利潤率的最有效方法，這在第三季度得到了明顯的體現，因為我們鉀肥部門每噸銷售成本與去年相比提高了 14%。

Before getting into more segment details, I'll quickly touch on the macro-outlook, starting with US agriculture. Compared to the past couple of years, we've clearly moved into a different market. Crop futures for corn and soybeans are back at historical averages and farmers continue to be impacted by inflationary pressures. That said, the trend of yield maximization is expected to continue and moderating costs for key inputs, including potash, should help lead to better value and steady demand for our fertilizer products.

在介紹更多細分細節之前，我將快速談談宏觀前景，從美國農業開始。與過去幾年相比，我們顯然已經進入了不同的市場。玉米和大豆期貨價格回到歷史平均水平，農民繼續受到通膨壓力的影響。儘管如此，產量最大化的趨勢預計將持續下去，而包括鉀肥在內的關鍵投入成本的降低，將有助於提高我們化肥產品的價值並維持穩定的需求。

As we've highlighted in recent earnings calls, even during the last period of decreasing farmer incomes, US potash demand remained quite resilient. Furthermore, Intrepid continues to be supported by our geographic advantage, and our sales diversification into specialty markets.

正如我們在最近的收益電話會議中所強調的那樣，即使在最近農民收入下降的時期，美國鉀肥需求仍然保持相當強勁。此外，Intrepid 繼續受益於我們的地理優勢以及我們在專業市場的銷售多元化支援。

As for the global potash market, pricing continues to be supported by several factors. First, we see a balanced market with global demand returning to historic levels and growth rates of 1% to 2% per year, offsetting new supply coming online in the next few years. Second, solid demand in the Asian markets during the second half of the year has set a stable floor on global pricing and granular markets, particularly in Brazil, have started to reengage for first half 2025 needs. Overall, we remain constructive on the fertilizer market as we finish the year and head into 2025.

就全球鉀肥市場而言，定價持續受到多種因素的支撐。首先，我們看到一個平衡的市場，全球需求恢復到歷史水平，每年的成長率為 1% 至 2%，抵消了未來幾年新增的供應。其次，今年下半年亞洲市場的強勁需求為全球定價奠定了穩定的底線，特別是巴西的顆粒市場已開始重新適應 2025 年上半年的需求。整體而言，隨著今年年末和 2025 年的到來，我們對於化肥市場仍持樂觀態度。

Moving on to third-quarter segment highlights. In potash, our segment gross margin showed modest increases, both sequentially and year over year, which underscores the positive impacts of higher production even with lower pricing. For the first nine months of the year, our production totaled 178,000 tonnes as improved brine grades and above-average evaporation season and a faster start to our fall production led to higher potash production than originally anticipated.

接下來介紹第三季的分部亮點。在鉀肥業務方面，我們部門的毛利率無論是環比還是同比均出現了小幅增長，這凸顯了即使在價格較低的情況下產量增加也帶來的積極影響。今年前九個月，我們的產量總計達到 178,000 噸，這是由於鹽水品位提高、蒸發季節高於平均水平以及秋季生產的提前開始導致鉀肥產量高於最初的預期。

As a result, we now expect our full-year 2024 potash production to be in the range of 280,000 to 290,000 tonnes. Since our last call, our overall production expectations haven't changed, and we want to be clear that by processing more tonnes in the second half of 2024, we are essentially pulling forward tonnes we previously expected to produce in the first half of 2025. As a result, we now project relatively flat production in the calendar year 2025 of between 280,000 to 300,000 tonnes, but remind folks that this is in line with our expectations to start the year.

因此，我們目前預計 2024 年全年鉀肥產量將在 28 萬至 29 萬噸之間。自上次通話以來，我們的整體生產預期沒有改變，我們希望明確的是，透過在 2024 年下半年加工更多噸，我們實際上是在提前生產我們之前預計在 2025 年上半年生產的噸數。因此，我們目前預測 2025 年曆年的產量將相對持平，介於 28 萬至 30 萬噸之間，但提醒大家，這符合我們今年年初的預期。

When looking at harvest year production, which typically runs from August until mid-spring, we removed the variability of start-up timing of processing rates from our solar solution mines, and we can clearly see the benefits of our recent capital projects. In our 2023, 2024 harvest year, we produced 249,000 tonnes of potash. And looking ahead to this current year, specifically the production we expect from August 2024 through the spring of 2025, we expect to produce approximately 280,000 to 300,000 tonnes, a 16% increase compared to the prior year at the midpoint.

當觀察收穫年的產量（通常從八月開始一直持續到春季中期）時，我們消除了太陽能溶液礦山​​啟動時間的加工率變化，我們可以清楚地看到最近的資本項目帶來的好處。在 2023、2024 收穫年，我們生產了 249,000 噸鉀肥。展望今年，特別是我們預計從 2024 年 8 月到 2025 年春季的產量，我們預計產量約為 280,000 至 300,000 噸，比上年中期增長 16%。

Our Trio segment again performed well in the third quarter, with our sales volumes totaling 45,000 tonnes at a net realized sales price of $312 per tonne. Operational improvements and higher production led to a solid improvement in our unit economics.

我們的 Trio 部門在第三季再次表現良好，銷售總量達 45,000 噸，淨實現銷售價格為每噸 312 美元。營運的改進和產量的提高使我們的單位經濟效益顯著提高。

And in the third quarter, our cost of goods sold totaled $272 per tonne, which compares to $341 per tonne in the same prior year period. This helped contribute to Trio generating positive gross margin of about $600,000 in the quarter, which compares to a gross deficit of $4.3 million in the third quarter of last year. For 2024, we also now project that our Trio cash production cost savings will be at the higher end of the $8 million to $10 million range we've previously provided when compared to the prior year.

第三季度，我們的銷售成本總計為每噸 272 美元，而去年同期為每噸 341 美元。這有助於 Trio 在本季實現約 60 萬美元的正毛利潤，而去年第三季的總虧損為 430 萬美元。到 2024 年，我們也預計，與前一年相比，我們的 Trio 現金生產成本節約將達到我們先前提供的 800 萬至 1000 萬美元範圍的高端。

Lastly, for oilfield solutions, our segment margin of $3.1 million in the third quarter was more than double the prior year and up by approximately $1 million sequentially due primarily to increased water sales associated with a large frac at Intrepid South. As we've noted before, our segment margins can fluctuate due to the timing of completion operations on the South Ranch, similar to the increased water sales we reported in the fourth quarter of 2023.

最後，對於油田解決方案，我們第三季的分部利潤率為 310 萬美元，比上年同期增長了兩倍多，比上一季增長了約 100 萬美元，這主要歸因於 Intrepid South 大型壓裂帶來的水銷售額增加。正如我們之前所指出的，由於南牧場完工時間的不同，我們的分部利潤率可能會波動，類似於我們在 2023 年第四季報告的水銷售額成長。

Although we remain encouraged by the oil field activity in Southeast New Mexico, we expect our oilfield solutions margins to return to first half rates in the fourth quarter of 2024. As for fourth quarter guidance, we expect our potash sales volumes to be in the range of 45,000 to 55,000 tonnes at an average net realized sales price in the range of $340 to $350 per tonne. For Trio, we expect our sales volumes to be in the range of 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes at an average net realized sales price of $315 to $325 per tonne.

儘管我們仍然對新墨西哥州東南部的油田活動感到鼓舞，但我們預計我們的油田解決方案利潤率將在 2024 年第四季恢復到上半年的水平。至於第四季的預期，我們預計鉀肥銷售量將在 45,000 至 55,000 噸之間，平均淨實現銷售價格在每噸 340 至 350 美元之間。對於 Trio，我們預計銷售量在 40,000 至 50,000 噸之間，平均淨實現銷售價格為每噸 315 至 325 美元。

As for other key initiatives, our discussions regarding our lithium project at Wendover continued to progress well, although we remind investors that this would be a longer-term project with a multiyear timeline for commissioning once a partner selected. We also started the permitting process to drill a test well at the AMAX cavern, which we have never mined and is the largest cavern at HB. Permitting AMAX is a natural next step as we look to our longer-term production profile in the normal course of resource development, and we expect to have more to share on this in 2025.

至於其他關鍵舉措，我們就溫德沃鋰項目的討論繼續進展順利，但我們提醒投資者，這將是一個長期項目，一旦選定合作夥伴，將需要多年的時間才能投入使用。我們也啟動了許可程序，準備在 AMAX 洞穴鑽一口試驗井，這個洞穴是我們從未開採過的，也是 HB 最大的洞穴。在我們著眼於資源開發正常過程中的長期生產狀況時，授予 AMAX 許可證是自然而然的下一步，我們預計在 2025 年會有更多這方面的資訊分享。

To end my comments, I think it's worth repeating that having no long-term debt and good liquidity puts Intrepid in a position of strength. In addition, the amendment to the cooperative development agreement we completed last year with XTO has both another guaranteed $50 million payment and the potential of an additional $100 million in payments, although the timing of these payments is uncertain and not guaranteed for the latter. Overall, we're encouraged by the trajectory of our business and continue to focus on positioning Intrepid for long-term sustained success.

最後，我認為值得重複的是，沒有長期債務和良好的流動性使 Intrepid 處於強勢地位。此外，我們去年與 XTO 完成的合作開發協議的修訂既保證再支付 5000 萬美元，也有可能額外支付 1 億美元，儘管這些付款的時間尚不確定，而且對於後者也不能保證。總體而言，我們對業務發展軌跡感到鼓舞，並繼續致力於讓 Intrepid 獲得長期持續的成功。

Operator, we are now ready for the Q&A portion of the call.

接線員，我們現在準備好進行通話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Joshua Spector, UBS.

(操作員指示) Joshua Spector，瑞銀。

Good afternoon. This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. Thanks for taking my question. So we've sort of been hearing some concerns from growers about the income level heading into next season and the common areas that have sort of been called out for potential cost cutting are sort of being crop chems and then across P&K on the fertilizer side. I mean, your demand outlook sounded like you're still pretty confident in things improving into next year. But I guess how would you frame any risks around getting some demand destruction for next season despite potash being relatively affordable again at the moment?

午安.這是盧卡斯·博蒙特 (Lucas Beaumont) 代替喬許 (Josh)。感謝您回答我的問題。因此，我們聽到一些種植者對下一季收入水平的擔憂，而被認為需要削減成本的常見領域是農作物化學品以及 P&K 肥料方面。我的意思是，您的需求前景聽起來似乎您對明年情況的改善仍然非常有信心。但我想，儘管目前鉀肥的價格再次相對便宜，但您如何看待下個季度需求下降帶來的風險？

Thanks for the question, this is Zachry. Global demand in 2024, as Matt mentioned, has trended back to normal levels, and we expect that normalization to continue into 2025. In our business with customers as recently as the last few weeks, they commented that potash at the current price levels represent a good value to the grower and in the rates, so they've been seen applied this fall in a number of geographies. They've seen those rates to be relatively normal with little to no cuts on those. So we expect good demand in the spring of next year. And again, even in a weaker ag price environment, yield maximization is still a key, and potash is a part of a balanced fertilization strategy to maximize yields.

感謝您的提問，我是 Zachry。正如馬特所說，2024 年的全球需求已恢復到正常水平，我們預計這種正常化將持續到 2025 年。就在最近幾週，在我們與客戶的業務往來中，他們評論說，當前價格水平的鉀肥​​對於種植者來說具有良好的價值，而且價格合理，因此今年秋天已在許多地區使用了鉀肥。他們認為這些利率相對正常，幾乎沒有任何削減。因此我們預計明年春季需求會很好。再說一遍，即使在農產品價格較弱的環境下，產量最大化仍然是關鍵，而鉀肥是平衡施肥策略的一部分，可以最大化產量。

Great. Thanks. And then I guess just on the cost side in potash, I mean, we're really starting to see that cost leverage should have improved and come through. Now your cash COGS are sort of down $12 million year-to-date and down a lot on a per tonne basis, which is the best results you guys have had for six or seven quarters now. So it seems like the year is probably on track for about $60 million in cash spending there.

偉大的。謝謝。然後我想僅從鉀肥的成本來看，我的意思是，我們真的開始看到成本槓桿應該得到改善並實現。現在，你們的現金銷貨成本今年迄今已下降了 1200 萬美元，以每噸計算下降幅度很大，這是你們六、七個季度以來的最佳業績。因此看起來今年那裡的現金支出可能達到約 6,000 萬美元。

Obviously, your per tonne costs are going to improve even more as your production volumes come back up. I just wanted to get a feel for you on where do you think there's more room to go there in terms of the absolute base [to] over $60 million? Or is that kind of a good way to think about the base to go into next year? Thanks.

顯然，隨著產量的回升，每噸成本將會進一步改善。我只是想問您，就絕對基數（超過 6,000 萬美元）而言，您認為還有哪些成長空間？或者這是思考明年基礎的好方法嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Lucas. I mean, I think we're certainly on track. When you go back to some prior calls, we had talked about a 20% to 30% improvement in our cost of goods sold compared to that 2023 level, which was right around $387 per tonne. So we started to see the benefits.

是的。謝謝你的提問，盧卡斯。我的意思是，我認為我們肯定走在正確的軌道上。回顧之前的一些電話會議，我們曾談到，與 2023 年的水平相比，我們的銷售成本將提高 20% 至 30%，約為每噸 387 美元。因此我們開始看到好處。

It will take some time as we get through this harvest season and then, of course, into the next one. And so we'll kind of see -- I mean, you'll see some bumpiness throughout the year as we have variability in where we sell our tonnes from, whether it's kind of in from our Wendover facilities or from HB. But yeah, overall, we're on a good track.

我們還需要一些時間才能度過這個收穫季節，當然，還要進入下一個收穫季節。因此，我們會看到 - 我的意思是，你會看到全年都會出現一些波動，因為我們銷售噸位的地點會有所不同，無論是從我們的溫德沃工廠還是從 HB。但整體來說，我們的進展順利。

I mean, I think as we get to the second half of 2025, we expect to be kind of probably at that lower end of the range of what we had guided to previously, down 20% from that $387 per tonne. But yeah, we certainly already see it and encouraged by the results. I mean, go back to the second half of '23 where our cost of goods sold were north of $400 per tonne. The quick benefits from increased production are clearly evident, and we're pleased by that.

我的意思是，我認為到 2025 年下半年，我們預計價格可能會處於先前指導範圍的低端，比每噸 387 美元下降 20%。但是是的，我們確實已經看到了它，並受到結果的鼓舞。我的意思是，回到 23 年下半年，當時我們的銷售成本超過每噸 400 美元。產量提高帶來的快速效益是顯而易見的，我們對此感到高興。

Great. Thanks. And then I guess just on the oilfield solutions side. So I mean, you had a strong step up there in both your sales and profitability there from the new well. So I guess with that now in place, I just sort of wanted to get your thoughts on how we should think about the run rate going forward in that business. Is that $10 million on the sales side, kind of how we should think about the new base from here or anything that's sort of, I guess, temporary in there to call out on that side? Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。然後我想只是在油田解決方案方面。所以我的意思是，從新油井開始，你們的銷售和獲利能力都有了很大的提升。所以我想現在既然已經到位了，我只是想聽聽你對我們應該如何看待該業務未來的運作率的看法。銷售方面的 1000 萬美元是不是就是我們應該如何考慮從這裡開始的新基礎，或者任何我猜是暫時的？謝謝。

Yeah. We certainly have major fluctuations when there is completion operation in the South Ranch. I'd say, as I said in my kind of prepared remarks, the first half rates we saw are really quite steady for our business. We've seen some nice moderate upticks over the past couple of years on brine sales as well as freshwater sales, but those first-half margins and sales rates are pretty consistent for our business.

是的。當南牧場完成作業時，我們肯定會出現重大波動。我想說，正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們看到的上半年利率對於我們的業務來說確實非常穩定。過去幾年，我們看到鹽水銷售和淡水銷售出現了適度上漲，但上半年的利潤率和銷售率對於我們的業務來說相當穩定。

Yeah, I wish we had some better visibility into large completion operations on South into 2025, but we just don't right now. So I think a good baseline is those first-half rates. And certainly, as we have more information and clarity on potential large sales of water, we'll let folks know.

是的，我希望我們能更了解 2025 年南部的大型完井作業，但目前我們還沒有。因此我認為一個好的基準是上半年的利率。當然，當我們獲得更多關於潛在大量水銷售的資訊和明確資訊後，我們會告知大家。

Jason Ursaner, Bumbershoot Holdings.

傑森‧烏爾薩納 (Jason Ursaner)，Bumbershoot Holdings。

Matt, congrats on all the progress and thanks for taking my questions. Just first one, a bit of a follow-up on Lucas' question there. there's a lot of headline Belarus, President proposing cutting production in Russia. Obviously, not a direct impact on you guys, but has a direct impact on the global market. So just in terms of some of the compression in farmer income in the US, obviously, I'm sure everyone would love the lowest price as possible with lower usage and still having great yields. But I guess at what point -- any insight into the supply/demand kind of more directly at your retail distributor level and maybe their customer in terms of inventory replenishment [fall] application because the last time some of these cuts started happening, people got -- everyone wanted a cut, but really didn't see that at all and kind of went the other way.

馬特，祝賀你取得的所有進展，並感謝你回答我的問題。只是第一個問題，對盧卡斯的問題進行一些後續跟進。有很多頭條新聞稱白俄羅斯總統提議削減俄羅斯的產量。顯然，這不會對你們產生直接影響，但會對全球市場產生直接影響。因此，僅就美國農民收入受到壓縮而言，顯然，我相信每個人都希望以盡可能低的價格，降低使用量，同時仍獲得較高的產量。但我想，在什麼時候——對零售分銷商層面以及他們的客戶在庫存補充[秋季]應用方面的供需情況的任何更直接的洞察，因為上次一些削減開始發生時，人們得到了——每個人都想要削減，但實際上根本沒有看到這一點，而是朝著相反的方向發展。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Jason. I'll kind of touch on, I say, the more global view of this and let Zach tie and talk about specific distributor inventory levels. But I mean we certainly saw the news yesterday and I mean it still much too early to kind of put any stock in that right now. I think what it does point to is a really balanced global market today from a supply-demand standpoint, where even the potential cuts of, call it, 2.5 million tonnes on the high side, it would be a pretty big shakeup to the current market as it is today. So who knows the likelihood of that happening, but I think certainly, it just points to that we're in a nice balanced market, and Zach will let you touch on sort of the US implications and where we are today.

是的。謝謝你的提問，傑森。我會稍微談談更全球化的視角，然後讓 Zach 談談特定經銷商的庫存水準。但我的意思是，我們昨天確實看到了這個消息，現在對此下結論還為時過早。我認為，從供需角度來看，這確實表明當今全球市場是平衡的，即使可能削減 250 萬噸，也會對當前的市場產生相當大的震動。所以誰知道發生這種情況的可能性有多大，但我認為可以肯定的是，這只是表明我們處於一個良好平衡的市場中，扎克將讓您談談美國的影響以及我們目前的狀況。

Yeah, Jason, kind of in regards to your question just around distributors, we saw a good subscription to the summer fill period. But as we fall in the spring and last fall, we saw that subscription really specific to just what anticipated fall needs were. So what we continue to see is really a focus on not to carry over any [tonnes] from one application season to another by distributors or retailers. And that's not driven right now as much by what I would call a fear of any price downside, but just more of an intentional decision for those distributors and retailers to manage their available capital amid a constrained environment.

是的，傑森，關於你關於分銷商的問題，我們看到夏季填充期的訂閱量很好。但隨著春季和去年秋季的到來，我們發現訂閱量確實具體到預期的秋季需求。因此，我們繼續看到的是，分銷商或零售商真正關注的是不要將任何[噸]從一個應用季節結轉到另一個應用季節。目前，這並不是因為擔心價格下跌，而是因為經銷商和零售商在受限的環境下有意管理可用資本。

So we continue to talk with retailers as we visit with them and our customers. I mean, they continue to project good potash demand out into spring of next year. And we think that once the winter fill program comes out, whether that's late in fourth quarter or early first quarter, we think we'll see good subscription again for what they anticipate their fall needs or their spring needs to be.

因此，我們在拜訪零售商和我們的客戶時會繼續與他們交談。我的意思是，他們繼續預測明年春季鉀肥需求將保持良好。我們認為，一旦冬季填充計劃出台，無論是在第四季度末還是第一季初，我們都將再次看到良好的訂閱量，以滿足他們對秋季需求或春季需求的預期。

Okay. Thanks. And on the cost side of things, how is the byproduct sales working in some of the projections, because you've had a pretty nice benefit in the cash costs, at least the old way. It was calculated. So I guess I'm wondering any outlook on the continuation of strength in the byproduct sales. And then how does that play into the update on production costs with the inflection in production that you're seeing sitting here today.

好的。謝謝。從成本方面來看，副產品銷售在一些預測中表現如何，因為您在現金成本方面獲得了相當不錯的收益，至少以以前的方式。這是經過計算的。所以我想知道副產品銷售持續強勁的前景。那麼，與您今天看到的生產變化相比，這對生產成本的更新有何影響？

Yeah. It would certainly break out our various byproducts both in our earnings press releases and our Qs and Ks. They've been pretty steady markets. I'd say as production increases, certainly, we'll have a little more byproduct tonnes to sell. But I don't expect significant changes in our byproduct outlook going forward with an increase in potash production. When it comes to production costs, we've made a change many years ago. There's really no change in our potash production costs with the production of byproducts. It's split out now in separate. And so we're not taking that as a credit against our potash production like we did many years ago.

是的。它肯定會在我們的收益新聞稿和 Qs 和 Ks 中列出我們的各種副產品。它們的市場一直相當穩定。我想說，隨著產量的增加，我們肯定會有更多的副產品可供出售。但我預計，隨著鉀肥產量的增加，我們的副產品前景不會有重大變化。至於生產成本，我們多年前就做出了改變。我們的鉀肥生產成本其實並沒有隨著副產品的生產而改變。現在它被分開了。因此，我們不會像多年前那樣，將此視為對我們鉀肥產量的損害。

So when you talk about the improvement in costs, you're not taking -- it's not -- that's not helping to benefit. It's just purely -- it's not what you're benefiting on.

因此，當您談到成本的改善時，您並沒有考慮到——這並沒有幫助帶來效益。這純粹是——這不是你所受益的。

Purely more potash production over what's a very large fixed cost basis.

在非常大的固定成本基礎上純粹增加鉀肥產量。

And the commentary on the production, just to kind of make sure I understood it. So what you're trying to say from August this year through spring of next year, you're kind of right in that midpoint still of the 15% improvement in production. But so it's really the pull forward, kind of the flat outlook year-to-year, is that this year is next year sort of because you're pulling forward the tonnes now that you're going to sell next year.

以及對製作的評論，只是為了確保我理解了它。所以您想說的是從今年 8 月到明年春天，產量仍然處於 15% 成長的中間點。但因此，這其實是一種向前拉動，一種同比持平的前景，就是今年就是明年，因為你現在把要賣的噸數提前到明年。

Yeah, that's exactly right. If you go back to kind of the early guidance we gave in early 2024, we were coming off 224,000 tonnes of potash in calendar year '23 and we projected a 10% to 15% increase off that number, which, due to the reasons I mentioned, improved brine grade, at above average evaporation season, but also pulling some tonnes forward, we've kind of blown it out of the water here from a calendar year basis. I wanted to be very clear on the call that while we have seen good results, some of that is just some tonnes pulling forward from '25. I just want to be very clear on that. But yes, you've got it exactly right.

是的，完全正確。如果回顧我們在 2024 年初給出的早期指導，我們在 23 日曆年生產了 224,000 噸鉀肥，我們預計該數字將增加 10% 至 15%，由於我提到的原因，鹽水品位提高，蒸發季節高於平均水平，同時也提前了一些噸位，從日曆年的角度來看，我們已經把它吹得天亂花墜了。我想在電話會議上非常清楚地表明，雖然我們看到了良好的結果，但其中一些只是從25年開始的一些增長。我只是想把這一點說清楚。但是是的，您說得完全正確。

And when do you think you might be in a position to talk about, I guess, 2026 or August 2025 through spring of 2026 and kind of a continuation of improvement? Or like when do you expect to see sort of the full benefit of some of the projects?

您認為什麼時候可以談論，我想，2026 年或 2025 年 8 月到 2026 年春季，以及持續的改進？或者您預計何時能夠看到某些項目的全部效益？

Yeah. It's a good question. I mean, we're always hesitant when it comes to the evaporation season to give any sort of harvest year guidance. So certainly, a little too soon right now. I mean, as we start to really ramp up extraction rates and then the spring of 2025, I think we'll have a better indication and start to highlight that at that time.

是的。這是個好問題。我的意思是，當蒸發季節來臨時，我們總是猶豫是否要給出任何形式的收穫年份指引。所以毫無疑問，現在還為時過早。我的意思是，當我們開始真正提高開採率，然後到 2025 年春季，我認為我們會有一個更好的跡象，並在那時開始強調這一點。

Okay, awesome. I think that's it for me. Congrats on all the progress.

好的，太棒了。我想對我來說就這樣了。祝賀你取得的所有進展。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Matt Preston for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給馬特普雷斯頓 (Matt Preston) 來做結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for your interest in Intrepid, and hope you have a great day.

感謝大家對 Intrepid 的關注，希望大家度過愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與並祝您有愉快的一天。