Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Intrepid Potash, Inc. First Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) The conference is being recorded.

謝謝你的支持。這是會議接線員。歡迎參加 Intrepid Potash, Inc. 2023 年第一季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Evan Mapes, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係部的 Evan Mapes。請繼續。

Thank you, Julienne. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss and review Intrepid's first quarter 2023 results. With me today is Intrepid's Co-Founder, Executive Chairman and CEO; Bob Jornayvaz; and CFO, Matt Preston. Also with me today and available to answer questions during the Q&A session following the prepared remarks is our VP of Sales and Marketing, Zachry Adams.

謝謝你，朱麗安。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們討論和回顧 Intrepid 2023 年第一季度的業績。今天和我在一起的是 Intrepid 的聯合創始人、執行董事長兼首席執行官；鮑勃·喬奈瓦茲；和首席財務官馬特普雷斯頓。今天也和我一起，在準備好的評論之後的問答環節中可以回答問題的是我們的銷售和營銷副總裁 Zachry Adams。

Please be advised that our remarks today, including answers to your questions, include forward-looking statements as defined by U.S. securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those currently anticipated. These statements are based on information available to us today, and we assume no obligation to update them. These risks and uncertainties are described in our periodic reports filed with the SEC, which are incorporated here by reference.

請注意，我們今天的評論，包括對您問題的回答，包括美國證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與當前預期結果存在重大差異。這些聲明基於我們今天可獲得的信息，我們不承擔更新它們的義務。這些風險和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中有所描述，這些報告以引用方式併入此處。

During today's call, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operational measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in yesterday's press release. Our SEC filings and press releases are available on our website at intrepidpotash.com.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及某些非 GAAP 財務和運營指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬包含在昨天的新聞稿中。我們的 SEC 文件和新聞稿可在我們的網站 intrepidpotash.com 上獲取。

I will now turn the call over to Bob. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給鮑勃。請繼續。

Thank you, Evan, and good morning to everyone. We appreciate your attendance and interest in Intrepid.

謝謝你，埃文，大家早上好。感謝您的出席和對 Intrepid 的興趣。

For the first quarter of 2023, I'm pleased to share that Intrepid was able to continue its recent run of solid quarterly performance, which was highlighted by a meaningful pickup in demand for our key fertilizer products with our sales volumes totaling 89,000 tons for potash; and 65,000 tons for Trio. When compared to our full year 2022 sales volumes, these first quarter figures represent approximately 40% of our total potash sales volumes; and 33% of our Trio volumes with the strong sales continuing into the second quarter behind higher demand from agricultural customers.

對於 2023 年第一季度，我很高興地與大家分享，Intrepid 能夠繼續其近期穩健的季度業績，這突出體現在對我們主要化肥產品的需求顯著回升，我們的鉀肥銷量總計 89,000 噸; Trio 為 65,000 噸。與我們 2022 年全年的銷量相比，這些第一季度的數據約占我們鉀肥總銷量的 40%；以及我們 Trio 銷量的 33%，強勁的銷售持續到第二季度，原因是農業客戶的需求增加。

While our sales have been strong to start the year, our profitability was lower with our first quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA totaling $16.4 million and our adjusted net income totaling $4.7 million, which compares to last year's respective figures of $50.2 million and $31.5 million, with the key driver being lower pricing.

儘管我們今年年初的銷售額一直強勁，但我們的盈利能力較低，2023 年第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 總計 1640 萬美元，調整後的淨收入總計 470 萬美元，而去年分別為 5020 萬美元和 3150 萬美元，而關鍵驅動因素是較低的價格。

For some context around the lower pricing, the first quarter of 2022 saw a significant increase in potash prices due to concerns around the supply issues related to the Belarusian sanctions and Russian's invasion of Ukraine, which led to many global distribution -- distributors rushed to buy potash and build inventory. However, following last year's spring lackluster application season, potash inventories weren't depleted and coupling this with buyers maintaining a just-in-time approach, pricing started to trend lower in the back half of 2022 and in 2023.

在定價較低的某些背景下，2022 年第一季度鉀肥價格大幅上漲，原因是人們擔心與白俄羅斯制裁和俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭相關的供應問題，這導致許多全球分銷商爭先恐後地購買鉀肥和建立庫存。然而，繼去年春季申請淡季之後，鉀肥庫存並未耗盡，再加上買家保持及時供應，價格在 2022 年下半年和 2023 年開始走低。

That said, we do want to caution against only focusing on these year-over-year comparisons in "missing the forest for the trees." For Intrepid, current potash price levels still provide robust netbacks and for the broader potash industry, we still have the backdrop of potential supply concerns and disruptions from issues in Eastern Europe while the outlook for the primary end user of potash agricultural markets continues to be quite strong.

也就是說，我們確實要提醒不要只關注這些“只見樹木不見森林”的年度比較。對於 Intrepid，目前的鉀肥價格水平仍然提供強勁的淨回報，對於更廣泛的鉀肥行業，我們仍然面臨潛在供應擔憂和東歐問題中斷的背景，而鉀肥農業市場主要終端用戶的前景仍然相當樂觀強的。

Looking specifically at U.S. agriculture, which is Intrepid's key market, farmers are projected to have a third consecutive year of very solid profitability, have strong balance sheets and their outlook continues to be supported by elevated crop futures.

特別關注 Intrepid 的主要市場美國農業，預計農民將連續第三年實現非常穩健的盈利能力，資產負債表強勁，他們的前景繼續受到作物期貨上漲的支撐。

For corn, December '23 and '24 contracts still traded over $5.20 a bushel; while for soybeans, November '23 and '24 contracts are over $12.30 a bushel. Looking back over the past decade through the end of 2020, December corn futures averaged just under $4 per barrel -- per bushel, I apologize, and November soybean futures averaged just under $10 a bushel. So today's pricing is still a 25% to 30% improvement over this recent historical period. Moreover, farmer input costs have recently come down quite considerably, and we expect the trend of yield maximization and strong fertilizer application to continue.

對於玉米，23 年和 24 年 12 月合約的交易價格仍高於每蒲式耳 5.20 美元；而對於大豆，23 年和 24 年 11 月的合約價格超過每蒲式耳 12.30 美元。回顧過去十年到 2020 年底，12 月玉米期貨平均價格略低於每桶 4 美元——抱歉，11 月大豆期貨價格平均略低於每蒲式耳 10 美元。因此，與最近的歷史時期相比，今天的定價仍然提高了 25% 到 30%。此外，農民投入成本最近大幅下降，我們預計產量最大化和施肥力度大的趨勢將繼續下去。

Going forward, we're optimistic on the outlook. And for Intrepid, our primary focus for the 2023 remains the successful execution on our potash growth projects to improve our brine grades through mining our extensive ore bodies, adding extraction wells in the non-brine pools, which will increase our production as well as our sand resource at the Intrepid South ranch.

展望未來，我們對前景持樂觀態度。對於 Intrepid，我們 2023 年的主要重點仍然是成功執行我們的鉀鹽增長項目，以通過開採我們廣泛的礦體、在非鹽水池中增加提取井來提高我們的滷水品位，這將增加我們的產量以及我們的Intrepid South 牧場的沙子資源。

Before I dive into the project updates, I want to take a quick moment to provide some more background on our recent potash production trends. Over the past several years, our potash production has been lower than our productive capacity. For some of these years, this has been mostly due to external factors like weather and permitting delays. To name a few examples, we experienced heavy summer rainfall in Wendover in 2019, impacting production and product availability for sale in 2020; and also had a significant rain event in Carlsbad in the summer of 2021, which was the key reason for the lower production continuing into 2022. Moreover, slow permitting in New Mexico has been a key reason for recent project delays at our HB facility, resulting in a lagging effect for bringing on new projects quickly as possible.

在我深入了解項目更新之前，我想花點時間簡要介紹一下我們最近的鉀肥生產趨勢的更多背景信息。在過去的幾年裡，我們的鉀肥產量一直低於我們的產能。在這些年中的某些年裡，這主要是由於天氣和允許延誤等外部因素造成的。舉幾個例子，我們在 2019 年的 Wendover 經歷了夏季強降雨，影響了 2020 年的生產和產品銷售；並且在 2021 年夏季卡爾斯巴德還發生了一場大雨，這是產量下降持續到 2022 年的主要原因。此外，新墨西哥州的許可審批緩慢是我們 HB 設施最近項目延遲的一個主要原因，導致對盡快啟動新項目有滯後效應。

However, we're cognizant that external factors are also to blame, most namely the extraction well failure at HB this past fall. This extraction well failure is the primary reason for our lower 2023 production guidance of approximately 260,000 tons, and we estimate this negatively impacted our 2023 production by 40,000 to 50,000 tons. Absent this issue, our 2023 potash production should have resumed an upward trajectory.

然而，我們認識到外部因素也是罪魁禍首，最主要的是去年秋天 HB 的抽油井故障。提取井故障是我們降低 2023 年產量指導值約 260,000 噸的主要原因，我們估計這對我們 2023 年的產量產生了 40,000 至 50,000 噸的負面影響。如果沒有這個問題，我們 2023 年的鉀肥產量應該會恢復上升趨勢。

That said, our potash projects are well underway, and our production goals are first to correct and sustainably reverse the recent downward trend and then get our annual potash production back to at least levels seen in the 2018, 2019-time frame or roughly 330,000 to 350,000 tons. We have a high degree of confidence on improving our near-term potash production by initially targeting already known high-grade brine that is ready for extraction. But I want to emphasize that the potash projects, I'll soon highlight, are designed to have both an immediate positive production impact while also driving sustained higher level of production for many years.

也就是說，我們的鉀肥項目進展順利，我們的生產目標首先是糾正並可持續扭轉近期的下降趨勢，然後使我們的鉀肥年產量至少恢復到 2018 年、2019 年時間框架內的水平，即大約 330,000 至35萬噸。我們非常有信心通過最初瞄準已知的可提取的高品位鹵水來提高我們近期的鉀肥產量。但我想強調的是，鉀肥項目，我很快就會強調，旨在產生直接的積極生產影響，同時也推動多年持續的更高水平的生產。

We recognize our 2022 and 2023 capital programs are higher than recent historical levels, but we want to make sure that the factors that impact our production where we have more control, namely consistent injection rates, reliable extraction wells and developing higher-grade brine are seeing the necessary investment to help ensure our future production profile meets the internal goals I just outlined.

我們認識到我們的 2022 年和 2023 年資本計劃高於最近的歷史水平，但我們希望確保影響我們生產的因素在我們有更多控制權的情況下，即一致的注入率、可靠的提取井和開發更高品位的鹽水正在看到必要的投資，以幫助確保我們未來的生產狀況符合我剛才概述的內部目標。

So I'll now go into each project in more detail. Starting with HB. This facility has been the key reason for our recent declining production trend and consequently is a key focus for us, where we have 3 primary projects in the works. The first project is a new brine injection pipeline, which is projected to roughly double our brine injection rates. With the second phase of this project, also having a pigging system on the [fly] continuous system, which is the infrastructure to clean the inside of the pipe and prevent scale, which will help ensure more consistent flow rates.

所以我現在將更詳細地介紹每個項目。從 HB 開始。該設施是我們最近產量下降趨勢的主要原因，因此是我們的重點，我們有 3 個主要項目正在進行中。第一個項目是一條新的鹽水注入管道，預計將使我們的鹽水注入率大約翻一番。隨著這個項目的第二階段，在 [fly] 連續系統上也有一個清管系統，這是清潔管道內部和防止結垢的基礎設施，這將有助於確保更一致的流量。

This is a long operational life project and will be key for sustaining higher injection rates, which in turn increased production levels over the long term. We expect the pipeline to be in place by the end of the quarter with the improved brine injection rates starting in the second half of the year. The pigging system is still being permitted with construction likely to begin by the end of the year.

這是一個使用壽命長的項目，將是維持較高注入率的關鍵，這反過來又會長期提高生產水平。我們預計該管道將在本季度末到位，並從今年下半年開始提高鹽水注入率。清管系統仍被允許建設，可能會在今年年底開始。

To target high-grade brine in the near term, we've identified a new lower capital project to extract a pool of high-grade brine from the Eddy shaft. Permitting and construction are both underway with operations expected to commence in the fourth quarter of 2023. We've taken several measurements of the Eddy shaft brine grade and are confident that the associated product [lines] will have a meaningful impact on supplementing our other extraction wells for the next few years with this production benefit starting in 2024.

為了在短期內瞄準高品位鹽水，我們確定了一個新的低資本項目，從 Eddy 礦井中提取高品位鹽水池。許可和建設都在進行中，預計將於 2023 年第四季度開始運營。我們已經對 Eddy 豎井鹽水品位進行了多次測量，並相信相關產品 [生產線] 將對補充我們的其他提取產生有意義的影響未來幾年的油井將從 2024 年開始獲得這種生產效益。

Lastly, we still plan to drill a replacement extraction well that will have long-term operational life to target the significant brine pool from the HB [brine] system. Although this project may get pushed to early 2024 due to the Eddy shaft project being installed and New Mexico permitting issues.

最後，我們仍計劃鑽取具有長期使用壽命的替代抽取井，以 HB [鹵水] 系統的重要鹵水池為目標。儘管由於正在安裝的渦流軸項目和新墨西哥州的許可問題，該項目可能會被推遲到 2024 年初。

Now moving on to Moab, where we have multiple projects in the works. For the first key project, we successfully drilled a new 3-lateral potash cavern, which will be online in the second quarter. During the drilling process, we were able to stay in the target interval for longer than any of our previously drilled horizontal caverns and the initial brine measurements show great availability of high-grade brine.

現在轉到摩押，我們有多個項目正在進行中。首個重點項目成功鑽探了新的三側鉀鹽洞穴，二季度將上線。在鑽探過程中，我們能夠在目標層段停留的時間比我們之前鑽探的任何水平洞穴都長，並且初始鹽水測量顯示高品位鹽水的可用性很高。

After we successfully completed drilling this new cavern, we moved the rig into an area that has multiple high-grade brine pools in the lowest parts of the old conventional mine, which are also referred to as sumps. This potash ore and the brine pool is part of the original conventional mine works and flooded area where we previously used vertical wells. However, for this new effort, the key difference is that we are now using horizontal laterals to more effectively target the multiple sumps we've identified. Our goal is to have the second project complete by July 2023 to last pump this brine into our ponds for the 2023 evaporation season.

在我們成功完成這個新洞穴的鑽探後，我們將鑽機轉移到一個區域，該區域在舊常規礦井的最低部分有多個高品位鹽水池，也稱為污水坑。這個鉀鹽礦和鹽水池是我們以前使用垂直井的原始常規礦山工程和淹沒區的一部分。然而，對於這項新的努力，關鍵的區別在於我們現在使用水平支管來更有效地瞄准我們已經確定的多個集水坑。我們的目標是在 2023 年 7 月之前完成第二個項目，以便在 2023 年蒸發季節將這些鹽水最後泵入我們的池塘。

At Wendover, we have no major growth capital planned for this year, but I did want to mention that the deep-brine wells we successfully drilled in the fourth quarter of 2022 are online and producing well. The very wet weather at Wendover this winter should be an additional boost to brine availability for the upcoming evaporation and production seasons.

在 Wendover，我們今年沒有重大的增長資本計劃，但我確實想提一下，我們在 2022 年第四季度成功鑽探的深鹽水井已上線並生產良好。今年冬天溫多弗非常潮濕的天氣應該會進一步增加即將到來的蒸發和生產季節的鹽水供應。

Quickly on the frac sand project, we continue to work through the permitting process and expect construction to begin by the end of 2023 with the eventual goal to ramp production up to 1 million tons per year once the project is operational. During the first quarter, we did start to engage with potential customers for commercial agreements and due to the strategic location of our sand resource in the Delaware Basin, which is surrounded by oilfield activity, we have seen notably strong interest from various parties.

快速進行壓裂砂項目，我們將繼續完成許可程序，預計施工將於 2023 年底開始，最終目標是在項目投入運營後將產量提高到每年 100 萬噸。在第一季度，我們確實開始與潛在客戶就商業協議進行接觸，並且由於我們的砂資源位於被油田活動包圍的特拉華盆地的戰略位置，我們看到了各方的強烈興趣。

Overall, we feel very confident in the success of our growth projects and look forward to seeing the impacts of higher production and an improvement in our unit economics in the coming years.

總的來說，我們對我們的增長項目的成功充滿信心，並期待在未來幾年看到更高產量的影響和單位經濟效益的改善。

I'll now turn the call over to Matt. Please go ahead.

我現在將電話轉給馬特。請繼續。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑勃。

In the first quarter of 2023, Intrepid generated total sales of $87 million, adjusted EBITDA of $16.4 million and adjusted net income of $4.7 million. As Bob noted, the key difference compared to the prior year's first quarter was lower pricing, although this was partially offset by higher potash sales volumes. In the first quarter of 2023, our average net realized sales prices for potash and Trio were $485 per ton and $344 per ton, respectively, which compares to last year's respective figures of $703 per ton and $469 per ton.

2023 年第一季度，Intrepid 的總銷售額為 8700 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1640 萬美元，調整後淨收入為 470 萬美元。正如 Bob 指出的那樣，與去年第一季度相比的主要區別在於定價較低，儘管這被較高的鉀肥銷量部分抵消了。 2023 年第一季度，鉀肥和三重奏的平均實現淨銷售價格分別為每噸 485 美元和 344 美元，而去年分別為每噸 703 美元和 469 美元。

With the spring season well underway and the announcement of a key international potash contract in early April, we've seen modest potash price increases over the past few weeks as in-season demand has exceeded nearby supply. We still expect buyers to remain cautious as the spring season winds down, anticipate that most buyers will plan to have minimal carryover inventory heading into summer.

隨著春季的順利進行以及 4 月初重要的國際鉀肥合同的公佈，過去幾週我們看到鉀肥價格溫和上漲，因為季節性需求超過了近期供應。我們仍然預計隨著春季的結束，買家將保持謹慎，預計大多數買家將計劃在進入夏季時保留最少的結轉庫存。

Moving on to segment highlights. In potash, our first quarter 2023 sales volumes totaled 89,000 tons and our production totaled 90,000 tons, which compares to year-ago figures of 69,000 tons and 103,000 tons, respectively. We saw agricultural customers drive most of the increase in demand with this market comprising 82% of our potash sales in the quarter. Feed markets remained steady, and we still saw the benefit of higher pricing from the longer-term contracts that were set in previous quarters.

繼續細分亮點。在鉀肥方面，我們 2023 年第一季度的銷量總計 8.9 萬噸，產量總計 9 萬噸，而去年同期分別為 6.9 萬噸和 10.3 萬噸。我們看到農業客戶推動了大部分需求增長，該市場佔本季度鉀肥銷售額的 82%。飼料市場保持穩定，我們仍然看到了前幾個季度製定的長期合同帶來的更高定價的好處。

Given the high fixed cost nature of our business and last year's lower production, we're experiencing a negative impact of higher carrying cost per ton as well as continued inflationary pressures. The second quarter of 2023, we expect Q2 potash sales volumes in the range of 65,000 to 70,000 tons with an average net realized sales price of $460 to $470 per ton.

鑑於我們業務的高固定成本性質和去年較低的產量，我們正在經歷每噸持有成本較高以及持續的通貨膨脹壓力的負面影響。 2023 年第二季度，我們預計第二季度鉀肥銷量將在 65,000 至 70,000 噸之間，平均實現的淨銷售價格為每噸 460 至 470 美元。

In our Trio segment, our first quarter 2023 sales volumes totaled 65,000 tons, down from 71,000 tons in the prior year period, while our production totaled 49,000 tons, down from 65,000 tons in the first quarter of 2022. During the first quarter, our Trio plant experienced net unplanned downtime of approximately 8 days related to a brine steep in our tailings pile, although we were able to move forward some of our normal planned maintenance days, which will allow us to make up some of the lost time in future periods. Overall, we estimate this downtime negatively impacted our production by approximately 9,000 tons in the quarter.

在我們的 Trio 部門，我們 2023 年第一季度的銷量總計為 65,000 噸，低於去年同期的 71,000 噸，而我們的產量總計為 49,000 噸，低於 2022 年第一季度的 65,000 噸。在第一季度，我們的 Trio工廠經歷了大約 8 天的淨計劃外停機時間，這與尾礦堆中的鹽水浸泡有關，儘管我們能夠提前一些正常的計劃維護天數，這將使我們能夠在未來彌補一些損失的時間。總體而言，我們估計此次停機對本季度的產量產生了約 9,000 噸的負面影響。

On a positive note, the first of 2 new continuous miners is now underground and delivery of the second miner is expected in the third quarter of 2023, which should lead to improved efficiencies in production once in service. Looking toward the second quarter for Trio, we expect second quarter 2023 sales volumes will fall in the range of 45,000 to 55,000 tons with prices trending slightly lower in the range of $325 to $335 per ton.

積極的一面是，兩台新的連續採煤機中的第一台現已在地下，第二台採礦機預計將於 2023 年第三季度交付，一旦投入使用，這將提高生產效率。展望 Trio 的第二季度，我們預計 2023 年第二季度的銷量將下降到 45,000 至 55,000 噸之間，價格將略微走低，在每噸 325 至 335 美元之間。

In our Oilfield Solutions segment, our sales decreased $2.8 million in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the prior year, which was driven by a $2.6 million decrease in water sales. We sold less water primarily due to timing of sales related to completion activity. Although in early April, we did start a new frac job on our South ranch, which should help second quarter sales.

在我們的油田解決方案部門，我們的銷售額在 2023 年第一季度比上一年減少了 280 萬美元，這是由於水銷售額減少了 260 萬美元。我們售出的水較少，主要是由於與完工活動相關的銷售時間安排。雖然在 4 月初，我們確實在我們的南部牧場開始了一項新的壓裂工作，這應該有助於第二季度的銷售。

Reduced sales were partially offset by lower cost of goods sold as we did not purchase any third-party water in the first quarter. As we've discussed previously, this segment should see relatively steady performance on an annual basis, although there can be quarter-to-quarter variability related to timing reasons.

由於我們在第一季度沒有購買任何第三方水，因此銷售額減少部分被銷售商品成本降低所抵消。正如我們之前所討論的，該細分市場的年度表現應該相對穩定，儘管可能存在與時間原因相關的季度變化。

Moving to our capital program. In the first quarter of 2023, we incurred $21 million in capital expenditures and still expect our full year capital spend to be in the $60 million to $75 million range. The exact level will be dependent on market conditions and project timing, which is also impacted by the permitting process, where we've recently seen several delays, particularly in New Mexico. Bob did a great job of providing more details and updates on our capital projects, but I'll again quickly remind everyone that given the cycle of brine injection, residence time underground and the summer evaporation and harvest seasons, these growth projects do take time before we see the investments pay off in the form of higher production. We are encouraged by our progress so far and look forward to seeing the benefits of these projects in upcoming evaporation seasons.

轉向我們的資本計劃。 2023 年第一季度，我們發生了 2100 萬美元的資本支出，預計全年資本支出將在 6000 萬至 7500 萬美元之間。確切的水平將取決於市場條件和項目時間，這也受到許可程序的影響，我們最近看到了一些延遲，特別是在新墨西哥州。 Bob 很好地提供了我們資本項目的更多細節和更新，但我會再次快速提醒大家，考慮到鹽水注入周期、地下停留時間以及夏季蒸發和收穫季節，這些增長項目確實需要時間我們看到投資以更高的產量得到回報。我們對迄今為止的進展感到鼓舞，並期待在即將到來的蒸發季節看到這些項目的好處。

Operator, we're now ready for the Q&A portion of the call.

接線員，我們現在準備好進行電話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

This is Will Tang on for Vincent. Have you guys completely sold out of that higher-priced inventory from the 2021-2022 evaporation season yet? And then as we look at the $260,000 on the 2023 production guidance for potash that you guys gave, how do we think about that impact on costs? Maybe I guess, if you could benchmark that to what you guys realized from that 2021-'22 season.

這是文森特的唐威爾。你們已經把 2021-2022 年蒸發季的高價庫存全部賣完了嗎？然後，當我們查看你們提供的 2023 年鉀肥生產指南中的 260,000 美元時，我們如何看待這對成本的影響？也許我猜，如果你能將其與你們在 2021-22 賽季所實現的目標進行比較。

Sure, yes. This is Matt. I'll try and kind of reiterate some of the comments we made before. Going back to some previous calls, we certainly -- we're looking forward to some improved cost of goods sold. But [this has since] changed, as we've mentioned, with the (inaudible) extraction well that failed in Q4. And so our production year-over-year has been unfortunately pretty consistent in the 260,000 range and so those improvements really haven't materialized. So sort of that improved product that we were selling down has been replaced with other products of a similar nature, obviously, updated a little bit with the inflationary pressures and the like.

當然，是的。這是馬特。我將嘗試重申我們之前發表的一些評論。回到之前的一些電話，我們當然 - 我們期待銷售商品成本有所改善。但是[這已經]改變了，正如我們已經提到的，在第四季度失敗的（聽不清）提取井。因此，不幸的是，我們的產量同比一直保持在 260,000 的範圍內，因此這些改進並沒有真正實現。因此，我們出售的那種改進產品已被其他類似性質的產品所取代，顯然，隨著通脹壓力等因素而有所更新。

So no, we're not seeing that improvement in our cost of goods sold just yet. Certainly, the projects we're undertaking today, accessing some of those sumps that Bob talked about, we should have some immediate impact and benefits to our brine here in the mid to late portion of our evaporation season should help. But that narrative has changed a little bit since Q4 with the extraction well piece.

所以不，我們還沒有看到我們的商品銷售成本有所改善。當然，我們今天正在進行的項目，訪問 Bob 談到的一些污水坑，我們應該在蒸發季節的中後期對我們這裡的鹽水產生一些直接的影響和好處應該有所幫助。但自第四季度以來，隨著提取井件的出現，這種說法發生了一些變化。

Will, I just want to clarify your question. Were you asking about 2021 product inventory?

威爾，我只是想澄清你的問題。您問的是 2021 年的產品庫存嗎？

Yes, the production -- like the inventory from that evaporation season.

是的，生產——就像那個蒸發季節的庫存。

Yes. I mean certainly, that's turned over by now. But like I said, that was impacting our COGS for a bit, but given some of the trends in production, weather, downtime of extraction wells, et cetera, we haven't seen the benefit to COGS that we'll see once some of our current capital projects are complete and operational.

是的。我的意思是，當然，現在已經完成了。但就像我說的，這對我們的 COGS 有一點影響，但考慮到生產、天氣、抽油井停機時間等方面的一些趨勢，我們還沒有看到 COGS 的好處我們目前的資本項目已經完成並投入運營。

And then I guess as a follow-up, I mean, if I look at the projects you have underway at HB and Moab, how material will that be from like a cost improvement standpoint versus I think if my calculations are right, you guys are seeing something around the $300 per ton cost of production in the first quarter. Just to kind of give me a sense of, I guess, what kind of cost improvement that will look like when that's all up and running?

然後我想作為後續行動，我的意思是，如果我看看你們在 HB 和 Moab 正在進行的項目，從成本改進的角度來看，這將是多麼重要，而我認為如果我的計算是正確的，你們是第一季度的生產成本約為每噸 300 美元。只是為了讓我了解，我想，當一切都啟動並運行時，成本會得到什麼樣的改善？

Yes, it's a good question. We certainly haven't provided any specific guidance on there. But if you look back to the 2018, 2019-time frame, the 330,000 to 350,000 tons compared to the 270,000, 260,000 we've mentioned and our fixed cost nature, and there's a material benefit to our per ton costs and we can get back to those levels. So those are by far our cheapest tons we'll produce.

是的，這是個好問題。我們當然沒有提供任何具體的指導。但如果你回顧一下 2018 年、2019 年的時間框架，與我們提到的 270,000 和 260,000 噸相比，我們的固定成本性質是 330,000 到 350,000 噸，我們的每噸成本有實質性的好處，我們可以收回到那些水平。所以這些是迄今為止我們將生產的最便宜的噸數。

And I won't give you a number today, just given some of the external factors, inflationary pressures, et cetera. We expect a material benefit to our -- our cost of goods sold once we see these projects come online and kind of have that time to get ramped up and see their full potential over a couple of years.

我今天不會給你一個數字，只是考慮到一些外部因素、通脹壓力等。一旦我們看到這些項目上線，並且有時間加速發展並在幾年內看到它們的全部潛力，我們希望對我們的銷售成本產生實質性好處。

Our next question comes from Joshua Spector from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. So just on your potash pricing guide, I'm not sure if I caught this correctly, but it sounds like you're expecting it to only be down $20 sequentially quarter-on-quarter. So if that's right, it's going to be quite a bit more positive versus what competitors are expecting kind of down more like $125 to $150 and just kind of where spot prices are as well. So could you kind of help us understand why you're kind of expecting to kind of outperform there? Is that based on the timing of the sales? Or sort of what's driving that for you?

這是 Josh 的 Lucas Beaumont。所以就你的鉀肥定價指南而言，我不確定我是否理解正確，但聽起來你預計它只會比上一季度連續下降 20 美元。因此，如果這是正確的，那麼與競爭對手預期的價格相比，它會更加積極一些，比如 125 美元到 150 美元，以及現貨價格。那麼你能不能幫助我們理解為什麼你有點期待在那裡表現得更好？這是基於銷售時間嗎？或者是什麼推動了你？

Yes. Thanks for the question. This is Zachry. There's really a couple of reasons for that. Our feed and industrial business really trades on long-term contracts, and those are at a premium. So we expect those to continue in the second quarter. That will provide overall benefits to our overall pricing.

是的。謝謝你的問題。這是紮克里。確實有幾個原因。我們的飼料和工業業務實際上是根據長期合同進行交易的，而且這些合同是溢價的。因此，我們預計這些將在第二季度繼續。這將為我們的整體定價帶來整體利益。

And this time of year, our agriculture business is primarily made up of the [netback] sales to our plants, and those are usually our highest netbacks as well on the ag side, too. So that's why we're only kind of indicating a drop of about $20 there from what we saw in the first quarter.

每年的這個時候，我們的農業業務主要由我們工廠的 [netback] 銷售額組成，而這些通常也是我們最高的 netback 以及在 ag 方面。因此，這就是為什麼我們只是表示與第一季度相比下降了約 20 美元。

So I guess for the portion there that's on those long-term contracts, what would you say the reset period is generally where we would see it kind of correct to market levels?

所以我想對於那些長期合同的部分，你會說重置期通常是什麼時候我們會認為它對市場水平是正確的？

Yes. I say our fee contracts, midyears probably. They're certainly layered in throughout the year. But after the spring season here kind of starting in Q3, we'll see a reset on a lot of those contracts to kind of get more in line with -- we always do get a premium compared to some of our ag sales, but those will reset here probably midyear.

是的。我說我們的費用合同，可能是年中。他們肯定全年都在分層。但是在第三季度開始的春季之後，我們會看到很多合同的重置，以便更符合——與我們的一些農業銷售相比，我們總是得到溢價，但那些可能會在年中重置。

Yes. If you go back and look at our earnings calls over the last 12 years, you'll see that those have always had a premium, and we expect that multiyear premium to continue to exist.

是的。如果你回頭看看我們過去 12 年的財報電話會議，你會發現那些一直有溢價，我們預計多年溢價將繼續存在。

Great. And then maybe just one on the volume side. So I mean, you kind of got in at the upper end of the expectations in the first quarter, and you're looking (inaudible) potash still. And you're looking like you're going to do 160,000 there in the first half. So does it sort of make sense now that we maybe look at our expectations for the full year a bit, maybe 270,000 to 280,000 instead of the 260,000 we talked about previously?

偉大的。然後也許只有一個在音量方面。所以我的意思是，你在第一季度達到了預期的上限，而且你仍在尋找（聽不清）鉀肥。你看起來像是要在上半年做 160,000 次。那麼現在我們可能會稍微看看我們對全年的預期，也許是 270,000 到 280,000，而不是我們之前談到的 260,000，這是否有意義？

Yes. And we talked about this on previous calls. I mean, trying to predict third quarter, fourth quarter demand is just kind of sometimes not a beneficial exercise. And so we don't have full year numbers but certainly encouraged by the demand we've seen here in the spring, and we'll just see how the back half of the year plays out and what buyer incentives look like in the fourth quarter of the year. And that will certainly drive that number up or down 10,000, 15,000 tons.

是的。我們在之前的電話中討論過這個問題。我的意思是，試圖預測第三季度、第四季度的需求有時並不是一種有益的做法。因此，我們沒有全年的數字，但肯定受到我們在春季在這裡看到的需求的鼓舞，我們只會看到今年下半年的表現以及第四季度的買家激勵措施。的一年。這肯定會使這個數字上升或下降 10,000、15,000 噸。

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

Across the NPK dynamic and other crop influence, it seems like there's maybe another commodity to this. There seems like there's definitely a reticence by distribution, by retailers to hold volumes here to do more just in time, high interest rate environment, all of that. Are you seeing that in your world? And how might that change your business, how you sell and other things like that?

縱觀 NPK 動態和其他作物影響，似乎還有另一種商品。分銷似乎肯定保持沉默，零售商在這裡持有數量以及時做更多事情，高利率環境，所有這些。你在你的世界裡看到了嗎？這會如何改變您的業務、您的銷售方式以及其他類似的事情？

I think it's a great observation, and it's true. We're very fortunate that we've got a very high percentage of sales that are truck sales, where we're not sending out unit trains. We've also got our feed and industrial businesses, which are much more localized sales. So I don't know if I'm answering your question, Joel, but we believe because of our strategic location and the geography that we service, we're going to have the benefit of that continued stronger pricing that we've always seen for years.

我認為這是一個很好的觀察，而且是真的。我們非常幸運，我們的銷售額中有很大一部分是卡車銷售額，我們沒有發送單元列車。我們還有我們的飼料和工業業務，這些業務更加本地化。所以我不知道我是否在回答你的問題，喬爾，但我們相信，由於我們的戰略位置和我們服務的地理位置，我們將受益於我們一直看到的持續走強的定價多年。

You touched on this a little bit across the call in some of the prepared remarks, but when I look at costs for potash and Trio, can you maybe just elaborate a little more how costs might scale across the year or the cadence of costs across the year? Like should we expect the types of costs we saw in the second half of '22 to come back here in the next few quarters? Or maybe -- help me out.

你在電話會議上的一些準備好的發言中略微提到了這一點，但當我查看鉀肥和 Trio 的成本時，你能否再詳細說明一下全年成本可能如何擴大或成本的節奏？年？就像我們是否應該期望我們在 22 年下半年看到的成本類型會在接下來的幾個季度回到這裡？或者也許——幫幫我。

Yes. I mean, certainly, it will be dependent on our summer evaporation season, which can be variable, but looking at Q1, I mean, we'll be pretty consistent for the year, given our current pond inventories, expectations of extraction grades, and it's not going to factor in some of the inflationary pressures compared to last year, and it will be pretty consistent throughout the year.

是的。我的意思是，當然，這將取決於我們的夏季蒸發季節，這可能是可變的，但看看第一季度，我的意思是，考慮到我們目前的池塘庫存、提取等級的預期以及與去年相比，它不會考慮一些通脹壓力，而且全年都會非常穩定。

Sorry, consistent from Q1 levels or?

抱歉，與 Q1 水平一致還是？

Yes. Sorry, if that wasn't clear.

是的。抱歉，如果不清楚。

No, no, I think it was. And just one more question. I know Bob, maybe a few months ago, you talked about Russian products spin out in the Midwest since June or July of last year. Talk about what you're seeing for competition on the river -- tons from importers coming in. Is there still -- is the Russian product still coming in as normal? Or have they -- that slowed down?

不，不，我想是的。還有一個問題。我知道鮑勃，也許幾個月前，你談到了自去年 6 月或 7 月以來俄羅斯產品在中西部的衍生產品。談談你在河流上看到的競爭——來自進口商的大量湧入。是否還有——俄羅斯產品是否仍像往常一樣進入？還是他們——放慢了速度？

Yes, I think there's a lot more Russian product in the United States than most people in D.C. realize. And so there's been an -- I think there's a perception that there's very little Russian fertilizer product in the United States when the exact opposite is true. If we go back and we look at the Russian imports, there's quite a bit of Russian product in the system. So I will say it's unbeknownst to people in -- a lot of people in D.C.

是的，我認為美國的俄羅斯產品比華盛頓特區的大多數人意識到的要多得多。因此，我認為有一種看法認為，美國的俄羅斯化肥產品很少，而事實恰恰相反。如果我們回頭看看俄羅斯的進口產品，就會發現系統中有相當多的俄羅斯產品。所以我會說這對華盛頓特區的很多人來說是不為人知的。

I don't know if I'm answering your question or not, but I think there is a perception that the Russians didn't bring tons in or that there were sanctions against the Russians. And they're clearly not sanctions against the Russians, and they continue to bring in significant amounts of product through their distribution assets.

我不知道我是否在回答你的問題，但我認為有一種看法認為俄羅斯人沒有帶來大量物資，或者對俄羅斯人實施了製裁。他們顯然不是對俄羅斯人的製裁，他們繼續通過他們的分銷資產帶來大量產品。

And maybe I'll sneak another one in. Just thinking longer term about sort of chloride-free potassium fertilizers like Trio, SOP, polysulphate, things like that. There's been a lot of hopes over the last decade that we'd see maybe more demand from that, more fruits and vegetables or things like that. I know it's been a tough season for almond, a tough year, so for almond and other crops. California is dry where a lot of the (inaudible) fertilizers go. But (inaudible) the market where it's growing versus the potash market, it's future opportunities, future challenges.

也許我會偷偷加入另一個。只是從長遠考慮像 Trio、SOP、多硫酸鹽等類似的無氯鉀肥。在過去的十年裡，人們寄予厚望，我們可能會看到更多的需求，更多的水果和蔬菜或類似的東西。我知道這對杏仁來說是一個艱難的季節，對杏仁和其他作物來說也是艱難的一年。很多（聽不清）化肥都流向了加州，那裡很乾燥。但是（聽不清）它與鉀肥市場相比正在增長的市場，這是未來的機遇，也是未來的挑戰。

Yes, I would say that the -- it's a great product, but Mosaic's K-Mag product and our Trio product are stellar fertilizers. Have we seen the increase in demand because of the lack of chlorides. I don't think we've seen the demand that we had hoped would continue to grow.

是的，我會說——這是一個很棒的產品，但 Mosaic 的 K-Mag 產品和我們的 Trio 產品是一流的肥料。我們是否看到由於缺乏氯化物而導致需求增加。我認為我們沒有看到我們希望繼續增長的需求。

I'll let Zach speak to that as well.

我也會讓 Zach 談談這個問題。

Yes, I think the key there, Joel, is there continues to be a broader focus on just balanced fertilization in general. And obviously, with Trio containing magnesium and sulfur, that's a big part of that. And so we see growth with our Trio products in regions where the low chloride component of it may not be the selling factor. It's more the magnesium and the sulfur component that's really moving the volumes there.

是的，喬爾，我認為這裡的關鍵是繼續更廣泛地關注總體上的平衡施肥。顯然，Trio 含有鎂和硫，這是其中很大一部分。因此，我們看到我們的 Trio 產品在低氯化物成分可能不是銷售因素的地區有所增長。真正推動那裡的體積的更多是鎂和硫成分。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bob Jornayvaz for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Bob Jornayvaz 的閉幕詞。

I just want to thank everyone for their interest in Intrepid. And we appreciate your time. Have a great day. Thank you.

我只想感謝大家對 Intrepid 的興趣。我們感謝您的寶貴時間。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您度過愉快的一天。