Illumina Inc (ILMN) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2020 Illumina Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到 Illumina 2020 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Ms. Juliet Cunningham, VP, Illumina, Investor Relations.

我現在想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，Illumina 投資者關係部副總裁 Juliet Cunningham 女士。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2020. During the call today, we will review the financial results released after the close of market and offer commentary on our commercial activity, after which we'll host a question-and-answer session. If you have not had a chance to review the earnings release, it can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website at illumina.com.

大家下午好，歡迎參加我們 2020 年第四季度和全年的財報電話會議。在今天的電話會議中，我們將回顧收市後發布的財務業績，並對我們的商業活動發表評論，之後我們將主持問答環節。如果您還沒有機會查看收益發布，可以在我們網站 illumina.com 的投資者關係部分找到它。

Participating for Illumina today will be Francis deSouza, CEO; and Sam Samad, CFO. Francis will provide an update on the state of Illumina's business, and Sam will review our financial results.

今天參加 Illumina 的是首席執行官 Francis deSouza；和首席財務官 Sam Samad。 Francis 將提供有關 Illumina 業務狀況的最新信息，而 Sam 將審查我們的財務業績。

The call today is being recorded and the audio portion will be archived in the Investors section of our website. It is our intent that all forward-looking statements regarding our financial results and commercial activity made during today's call will be protected under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual events or results may differ materially from those projected or discussed. All forward-looking statements are based upon current available information, and Illumina assumes no obligation to update these statements. To better understand the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, we refer you to the documents that Illumina files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Illumina's most recent Forms 10-Q and 10-K.

今天的電話會議正在錄音中，音頻部分將存檔在我們網站的“投資者”部分。我們打算在今天的電話會議中就我們的財務業績和商業活動作出的所有前瞻性陳述將受到 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案的保護。前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響。實際事件或結果可能與預測或討論的事件或結果存在重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於當前可用信息，Illumina 不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。為了更好地理解可能導致實際結果不同的風險和不確定性，我們建議您參閱 Illumina 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括 Illumina 最新的 10-Q 和 10-K 表格。

With that, I'll now turn over the call to Francis.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給弗朗西斯。

Thank you, Juliet. Good afternoon, everyone. Illumina had a strong finish to 2020, with both revenue and orders setting new records. Fourth quarter revenue of $953 million was up 20% sequentially from the third quarter. Sequencing instruments grew 29% quarter-over-quarter. We also booked the second-highest NovaSeq units during the fourth quarter, primarily driven by the August launch of our v1.5 reagents. v1.5 resulted in higher new customer growth as well as additional HiSeq conversions. NovaSeq continues to be the market-leading sequencer as it enters its 5th year since launch.

謝謝你，朱麗葉。大家下午好。 Illumina 在 2020 年取得了優異的成績，收入和訂單均創下新紀錄。第四季度收入為 9.53 億美元，比第三季度增長 20%。測序儀器環比增長 29%。我們還在第四季度預訂了第二高的 NovaSeq 單位，這主要是受 8 月份推出的 v1.5 試劑的推動。 v1.5 帶來了更高的新客戶增長以及額外的 HiSeq 轉換。 NovaSeq 自推出以來進入第 5 個年頭，仍然是市場領先的測序儀。

Full year 2020 revenue of $3.2 billion declined 9% year-over-year, with the largest impact in the pandemic in the second quarter. Our business accelerated in the second half of the year, growing 17% compared to the first half. In 2020, we shipped more than 2,000 sequencing systems, setting another record for mid-throughput shipments and added more than 700 new customers, which exceeded our expectation.

2020 年全年收入 32 億美元，同比下降 9%，第二季度受疫情影響最大。我們的業務在下半年加速增長，與上半年相比增長了 17%。 2020年，我們出貨了2000多套測序系統，再創中通量出貨記錄，新增客戶700多家，超出了我們的預期。

I'd like to share some fourth quarter highlights by platform, starting with our high throughput systems. NovaSeq consumable pull-through was at its highest level of the year at over $1.2 million per instrument. We expect NovaSeq pull-through to continue at pre-pandemic levels of $1.1 million to $1.2 million per year in 2021. The NovaSeq v1.5 reagent introduction is catalyzing a new wave of high-throughput customers as a $600 genome became a reality for labs of any size. In fact, over half our NovaSeq system orders in 2020 were to new high-throughput customers. This includes customers like Argentina's Ministry of Health, which purchased NovaSeq for infectious disease research.

我想按平台分享第四季度的一些亮點，首先是我們的高吞吐量系統。 NovaSeq 消耗品 pull-through 達到年度最高水平，每台儀器超過 120 萬美元。我們預計到 2021 年，NovaSeq 的收入將繼續保持在大流行前的每年 110 萬至 120 萬美元的水平。隨著 600 美元的基因組成為實驗室的現實，NovaSeq v1.5 試劑的推出正在催生一波新的高通量客戶任何大小。事實上，我們在 2020 年的 NovaSeq 系統訂單中有一半以上是面向新的高通量客戶的。這包括像阿根廷衛生部這樣的客戶，他們購買了 NovaSeq 用於傳染病研究。

v1.5 introduction also accelerated the purchasing timeline for CellCarta, a contract research organization and a new to high-throughput customer who plans to use their NovaSeq to support oncology clinical trials. The v1.5 reagents are also strengthening the economic case for legacy HiSeq customers to upgrade, like the University of Oregon who is using NovaSeq for large, single cell and epigenetic studies. We ended the year with about 1,000 active HiSeq units. And in 2021, we expect continued HiSeq to NovaSeq adoption among the 320 customers yet to transition.

v1.5 的推出還加快了 CellCarta 的採購時間表，CellCarta 是一家合同研究組織，也是一家新的高通量客戶，他們計劃使用他們的 NovaSeq 來支持腫瘤學臨床試驗。 v1.5 試劑還加強了傳統 HiSeq 客戶升級的經濟案例，例如俄勒岡大學正在使用 NovaSeq 進行大型單細胞和表觀遺傳學研究。我們在年底擁有大約 1,000 個活躍的 HiSeq 裝置。到 2021 年，我們預計 320 家尚未過渡的客戶將繼續採用 HiSeq 到 NovaSeq。

Moving to mid-throughput. 2020 marked the second consecutive year of record placements, and the mid-throughput segment continues to provide durable growth in our core business. Fourth quarter strength was primarily driven by the successful launches of NextSeq 1000 and 2000, which also drove an increase in mid-throughput consumables revenue for the full year. Looking ahead, we expect continued NextSeq expansion in 2021, particularly in the clinical segment. Notably, we received NMPA approval in China for NextSeq Dx, driving demand in local hospitals and applications like oncology and infectious disease testing. We expect this approval to drive NextSeq Dx placements and further increase our clinical presence in 2021.

轉向中等吞吐量。 2020 年是連續第二年創紀錄的安置，中等吞吐量部分繼續為我們的核心業務提供持久增長。第四季度的增長主要得益於 NextSeq 1000 和 2000 的成功推出，這也推動了全年中等通量耗材收入的增長。展望未來，我們預計 NextSeq 將在 2021 年繼續擴張，尤其是在臨床領域。值得注意的是，我們在中國獲得了 NMPA 對 NextSeq Dx 的批准，推動了當地醫院以及腫瘤學和傳染病檢測等應用的需求。我們預計這一批准將推動 NextSeq Dx 安置，並在 2021 年進一步增加我們的臨床存在。

We added more than 500 new low-throughput customers in 2020, bringing our total to more than 6,100 customers worldwide. Our platforms hold the largest set of flow cell configurations and enable the most expansive set of supported methods with run times as fast as 5 hours. In the fourth quarter, we had record low-throughput consumable revenue driven by customers like Invitae with products in development using MiSeq Dx.

2020 年，我們新增了 500 多個低吞吐量客戶，使我們在全球的客戶總數達到 6,100 多個。我們的平台擁有最大的流動槽配置集，並支持最廣泛的支持方法集，運行時間快至 5 小時。在第四季度，我們的低通量消耗品收入創下歷史新高，這是由 Invitae 等客戶推動的，這些客戶使用 MiSeq Dx 開發產品。

I'll now provide updates on our clinical and research and applied segments. Total sequencing consumables revenue of $2 billion was down 2% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of the pandemic on academic and research institutions. By the fourth quarter of 2020, clinical sequencing run rates actually exceeded pre-pandemic levels, and research run rates also returned to normalized pre-pandemic volumes. It was great to see how our customers successfully rebounded under these challenging circumstances. More than 43% of our sequencing consumable shipments in 2020 were to clinical customers, which includes testing for oncology, reproductive health and genetic disease. Clinical testing proved durable during the pandemic, with clinical consumables growing about 8% year-over-year to approximately $890 million in 2020. And in the fourth quarter, clinical consumables growth accelerated to over 20% year-over-year.

我現在將提供有關我們的臨床和研究以及應用領域的更新。測序耗材總收入為 20 億美元，同比下降 2%，反映出疫情對學術和研究機構的影響。到 2020 年第四季度，臨床測序運行率實際上超過了大流行前的水平，研究運行率也恢復到大流行前的正常水平。很高興看到我們的客戶如何在這些充滿挑戰的情況下成功反彈。 2020 年，我們超過 43% 的測序耗材出貨量是發給臨床客戶的，其中包括腫瘤學、生殖健康和遺傳病檢測。事實證明，臨床試驗在大流行期間具有持久性，2020 年臨床耗材同比增長約 8%，達到約 8.9 億美元。第四季度，臨床耗材同比增長加速至 20% 以上。

In clinical, I'll highlight first the tremendous progress made in market access and reimbursement. We believe recent landmark coverage decisions will drive greater adoption of next-generation sequencing to new levels over the next several years. In oncology, 205 million lives are now covered for tumor-comprehensive genomic profiling in the U.S. And with an increasing number of targeted oncology therapies, we expect CGP to grow to be a $1 billion-plus market by 2026. Additionally, Germany recently started covering tumor CGP and whole exome and whole genome for rare and undiagnosed genetic disease without restrictions. This means that 73 million lives will have better access to CGP and whole exome and whole genome testing. In reproductive health, with multiple large payers expanding coverage for all pregnancies, we expect NIPT coverage in the U.S. to exceed 3 million pregnancies by the end of 2021. And finally, whole genome sequencing coverage for genetic disease testing increased tenfold in 2020. And we expect WGS to become the standard of care in genetic disease as awareness and reimbursement continues to grow.

在臨床方面，我將首先強調在市場准入和報銷方面取得的巨大進步。我們相信最近具有里程碑意義的覆蓋範圍決定將在未來幾年內將下一代測序的採用率提高到新的水平。在腫瘤學領域，美國的腫瘤綜合基因組分析目前覆蓋了 2.05 億人的生命。隨著靶向腫瘤治療的數量不斷增加，我們預計 CGP 到 2026 年將增長到超過 10 億美元的市場。此外，德國最近開始覆蓋腫瘤 CGP 和全外顯子組和全基因組，用於罕見和未確診的遺傳病，沒有限制。這意味著 7300 萬人將能夠更好地獲得 CGP 以及全外顯子組和全基因組檢測。在生殖健康方面，隨著多個大型支付方擴大對所有妊娠的覆蓋範圍，我們預計到 2021 年底美國的 NIPT 覆蓋範圍將超過 300 萬例妊娠。最後，到 2020 年，用於遺傳疾病檢測的全基因組測序覆蓋範圍將增加十倍。我們隨著意識和報銷的不斷提高，預計 WGS 將成為遺傳病的護理標準。

With these positive reimbursement trends as a backstop, I will now discuss our clinical focus areas in a little more detail. Oncology testing continues to represent approximately 20% of total sequencing consumables, and it grew year-over-year driven by companies like Guardant Health who expanded its mobile phlebotomy services to help patients access its Guardant360 liquid biopsy test during the pandemic. This also includes Genomic Hubs in the NHS that adopted NovaSeq comprehensive genomic profiling as a standard of care in the U.K. And oncology centers like Florida Cancer Specialists, a private community oncology and hematology practice, with nearly 100 offices throughout Florida. Florida Cancer Specialists purchased multiple NextSeq Dx systems in 2020 to run Illumina's TruSight Oncology 500 assay in its new lab. Reproductive health represented about 12% of sequencing consumables, with revenue and samples for our end-to-end VeriSeq NIPT solution growing over 20% in 2020.

以這些積極的報銷趨勢為後盾，我現在將更詳細地討論我們的臨床重點領域。腫瘤學測試繼續佔總測序耗材的約 20%，並且在 Guardant Health 等公司的推動下逐年增長，該公司擴大了移動採血服務，以幫助患者在大流行期間獲得 Guardant360 液體活檢測試。這還包括 NHS 中的基因組中心，該中心採用 NovaSeq 綜合基因組分析作為英國的護理標準，以及像佛羅里達癌症專家這樣的腫瘤學中心，這是一家私人社區腫瘤學和血液學診所，在佛羅里達州擁有近 100 個辦事處。 Florida Cancer Specialists 於 2020 年購買了多個 NextSeq Dx 系統，以在其新實驗室中運行 Illumina 的 TruSight Oncology 500 檢測。生殖健康約佔測序耗材的 12%，我們的端到端 VeriSeq NIPT 解決方案的收入和样本在 2020 年增長了 20% 以上。

Lastly, about 10% of our sequencing consumables revenue is related to genetic disease testing. Customers continue to choose Illumina's highly accurate and scalable sequencers as their platform of choice in this area. For example, the recent collaboration between Weill Cornell Medicine and New York-Presbyterian Hospital, in partnership with the New York Genome Center, will use Illumina technology for clinical WGS in areas like cardiovascular, metabolic and neurodegenerative diseases.

最後，我們大約 10% 的測序耗材收入與遺傳疾病檢測有關。客戶繼續選擇 Illumina 的高度準確和可擴展的測序儀作為他們在該領域的首選平台。例如，威爾康奈爾醫學院和紐約長老會醫院最近與紐約基因組中心合作，將 Illumina 技術用於心血管、代謝和神經退行性疾病等領域的臨床 WGS。

Turning to our research and applied segment. Revenue of approximately $1.2 billion represented just under 57% of our sequencing consumable shipments and was lower by about 6% year-over-year as customers were impacted by the pandemic. Research accelerated in the second half, growing 20% compared to the first half as researchers return to their labs. This segment includes research in oncology and genetic disease as well as population genomic and research initiatives. Our sequencers enabled programs like KDNA, a large-scale Korean project aiming to sequence 1 million genomes by 2030. A service provider consortium, standardized on Illumina technology, won the competitive tender based on NovaSeq's superior technical evaluation. The program plans to complete a 7,500-genome Phase I by the end of the year.

轉向我們的研究和應用部門。約 12 億美元的收入占我們測序耗材出貨量的不到 57%，並且由於客戶受到大流行的影響，同比下降約 6%。隨著研究人員返回實驗室，研究在下半年加速，與上半年相比增長了 20%。該部分包括腫瘤學和遺傳病研究以及人口基因組和研究計劃。我們的測序儀支持諸如 KDNA 之類的項目，這是一個旨在到 2030 年對 100 萬個基因組進行測序的大型韓國項目。基於 Illumina 技術的標準化服務提供商聯盟基於 NovaSeq 卓越的技術評估贏得了競爭性招標。該計劃計劃在今年年底前完成 7,500 個基因組的第一階段。

The NHS commenced a phased rollout for whole genome sequencing in the fourth quarter for selected rare disease and cancer patients as part of their routine care. Once this live clinical testing phase is complete, we expect the whole genome sequencing service to further ramp in the spring. We expect the All of Us program to continue to scale this year. And the NIH anticipates releasing de-identified data from 100,000 sequence and array genotype samples to its research portal by the end of 2021.

NHS 在第四季度開始分階段推出全基因組測序，作為他們日常護理的一部分，選擇罕見疾病和癌症患者。一旦這個實時臨床測試階段完成，我們預計整個基因組測序服務將在春季進一步發展。我們預計 All of Us 計劃今年將繼續擴大規模。 NIH 預計到 2021 年底將 100,000 個序列和陣列基因型樣本的去識別化數據發佈到其研究門戶。

Finally, as a leading innovator, Illumina remains steadfast in the defense of our intellectual property globally. We received injunctions against BGI for patent infringement in the U.S., Germany, U.K., Spain, Sweden and Finland. We remain confident that our IP portfolio affords strong protection for Illumina's innovation now and well into the future.

最後，作為領先的創新者，Illumina 始終堅定不移地在全球範圍內捍衛我們的知識產權。我們在美國、德國、英國、西班牙、瑞典和芬蘭收到了針對 BGI 專利侵權的禁令。我們仍然相信，我們的知識產權組合將為 Illumina 現在和未來的創新提供強有力的保護。

And now I'll turn it over to Sam.

現在我將把它交給山姆。

Thank you, Francis. As Francis discussed, we had record fourth quarter revenue that grew slightly year-over-year to $953 million driven by 1% growth in sequencing, offset by an 8% decline in microarrays.

謝謝你，弗朗西斯。正如 Francis 所討論的那樣，我們的第四季度收入創下歷史新高，同比略有增長，達到 9.53 億美元，這得益於測序增長 1%，但被微陣列業務下降 8% 所抵消。

Total sequencing revenue reached a record of $846 million, which represented 89% of total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 and grew 19% sequentially. Sequencing consumables revenue grew 5% compared to the prior year period and 20% sequentially. Sequencing instruments revenue was roughly flat year-over-year and grew 29% sequentially. And sequencing service and other was down 15% compared to the prior year period due to IVD partnership revenue recognized last year.

測序總收入達到創紀錄的 8.46 億美元，佔 2020 年第四季度總收入的 89%，環比增長 19%。測序耗材收入較上年同期增長 5%，環比增長 20%。測序儀器收入同比大致持平，環比增長 29%。由於去年確認的 IVD 合作夥伴收入，測序服務和其他與去年同期相比下降了 15%。

Moving to regional results. The Americas revenue grew 14% sequentially. Revenue in the region was 2% lower compared to the prior year quarter, which was primarily driven by onetime technology access fees for an IVD partnership and lower DTC revenue. These items were partially offset by sequencing consumables. The Americas had record sequencing product revenue in the fourth quarter driven by clinical customers.

轉向區域結果。美洲收入環比增長 14%。該地區的收入與去年同期相比下降了 2%，這主要是受 IVD 合作夥伴的一次性技術訪問費和較低的 DTC 收入推動。這些項目被測序耗材部分抵消。在臨床客戶的推動下，美洲第四季度的測序產品收入創下歷史新高。

EMEA delivered record revenue of $285 million, representing 34% sequential growth and 2% growth year-over-year, driven by strong instrument revenue from NovaSeq. We also saw certain customers in emerging countries taking their first NovaSeq shipments.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區實現了創紀錄的 2.85 億美元收入，環比增長 34%，同比增長 2%，這主要得益於來自 NovaSeq 的強勁儀器收入。我們還看到新興國家的某些客戶收到了他們的第一批 NovaSeq 貨物。

Greater China grew 16% sequentially and 3% year-over-year to $96 million and had its highest sequencing instrument revenue quarter since 2017 driven in part by growing demand in hospitals. Subsequent to Q4, we also announced the Sequoia Capital China genomics incubator, which builds on our other incubator efforts in Silicon Valley and the U.K. Together, we will partner with leading entrepreneurs in China to build genomic start-up companies that create breakthrough genomics applications and clinical sequencing solutions.

大中華區環比增長 16%，同比增長 3% 至 9600 萬美元，並且是自 2017 年以來最高的測序儀器收入季度，部分原因是醫院需求的增長。在第四季度之後，我們還宣布了紅杉資本中國基因組學孵化器，該孵化器建立在我們在矽谷和英國的其他孵化器工作的基礎上。我們將與中國領先的企業家合作，建立基因組初創公司，創造突破性的基因組學應用和臨床測序解決方案。

Finally, APJ revenue of $77 million was up 24% sequentially and up 5% from the prior year period. For the full year, the region was roughly flat compared to 2019 with full year growth in sequencing consumables.

最後，APJ 收入為 7700 萬美元，環比增長 24%，比去年同期增長 5%。與 2019 年相比，該地區全年基本持平，測序耗材全年增長。

Moving to gross margin and operating expenses. I will highlight non-GAAP results, which includes stock-based compensation. I encourage you to review the GAAP reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures, which can be found in today's release and the supplementary data available on our website. Please note that all subsequent references to net income and earnings per share refer to the results attributable to Illumina shareholders.

轉到毛利率和運營費用。我將重點介紹非 GAAP 結果，其中包括基於股票的薪酬。我鼓勵您查看這些非 GAAP 措施的 GAAP 調節，這些可以在今天的新聞稿中找到，也可以在我們的網站上找到補充數據。請注意，所有隨後提及的淨收入和每股收益均指歸因於 Illumina 股東的業績。

As expected, non-GAAP gross margin of 66.9% decreased approximately 50 basis points sequentially. Year-over-year, fourth quarter non-GAAP gross margin was down 330 basis points, primarily due to a onetime inventory write-down in Q4, onetime IVD partnership revenue in the year ago quarter and higher freight costs related to COVID-19. Non-GAAP operating expenses of $439 million were up $74 million sequentially, as expected, reflecting the extra week in the fourth quarter, variable compensation expenses and other investments. Non-GAAP operating margin was 20.9%, down from 21.4% in the third quarter. Non-GAAP other income of $20 million was $13 million higher sequentially due to gains on short-term investments sold as we repositioned our investment portfolio for the anticipated funding of the GRAIL acquisition.

正如預期的那樣，非 GAAP 毛利率為 66.9%，環比下降約 50 個基點。與去年同期相比，第四季度非 GAAP 毛利率下降了 330 個基點，這主要是由於第四季度的一次性庫存減記、去年同期的一次性 IVD 合作夥伴收入以及與 COVID-19相關的更高運費。非 GAAP 運營費用為 4.39 億美元，比上一季度增加了 7,400 萬美元，符合預期，反映了第四季度多出的一周、可變薪酬費用和其他投資。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 20.9%，低於第三季度的 21.4%。非 GAAP 其他收入為 2000 萬美元，比上一季度增加了 1300 萬美元，這是由於我們為 GRAIL 收購的預期資金重新定位投資組合而出售的短期投資收益。

The non-GAAP tax rate of 18.4% was up from last quarter due to a discrete charge related to a tax structure initiative in the fourth quarter. The sequential increase of our tax rate in Q4 was also impacted by discrete tax benefits in the third quarter of 2020 related to prior year return adjustments.

非美國通用會計準則稅率為 18.4%，高於上一季度，這是由於與第四季度稅收結構計劃相關的離散費用。 2020 年第三季度與上一年收益調整相關的離散稅收優惠也影響了我們在第四季度的連續稅率上調。

For the fourth quarter of 2020, GAAP net income was $257 million or $1.75 per diluted share, and non-GAAP net income was $179 million or $1.22 per diluted share.

2020 年第四季度，GAAP 淨收入為 2.57 億美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.75 美元，非 GAAP 淨收入為 1.79 億美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.22 美元。

Moving to cash flow and balance sheet items. Cash flow from operations was $406 million. DSO is 50 days compared to 53 days last quarter driven by revenue linearity. Fourth quarter capital expenditures were $62 million, and free cash flow was $344 million. We repurchased $280 million of stock in the fourth quarter. We ended the year with approximately $3.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Our weighted average diluted share count for the quarter was 147 million.

轉向現金流量和資產負債表項目。運營現金流為 4.06 億美元。 DSO 為 50 天，而上一季度受收入線性驅動為 53 天。第四季度資本支出為 6200 萬美元，自由現金流為 3.44 億美元。我們在第四季度回購了 2.8 億美元的股票。年底，我們擁有約 35 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。我們本季度的加權平均稀釋股數為 1.47 億股。

Moving now to 2021 guidance. We expect full year 2021 revenue to grow in the range of 17% to 20% or $3.79 billion to $3.89 billion, representing an increase of approximately $599 million at the midpoint. For the full year of 2021, at the midpoint of our revenue guidance range, we expect sequencing revenue to grow approximately 20%. This includes sequencing consumable growth of around 20%. We expect sequencing system revenue to grow 33% year-over-year driven by placements of NovaSeq due to continued HiSeq conversions and the adoption of v1.5 reagents as well as placements of NextSeq due to NextSeq 2000 and DX demand and arrays to grow approximately 5% compared to 2020.

現在轉到 2021 年指南。我們預計 2021 年全年收入將增長 17% 至 20%，即 37.9 億美元至 38.9 億美元，中點增長約 5.99 億美元。對於 2021 年全年，在我們收入指導範圍的中點，我們預計測序收入將增長約 20%。這包括約 20% 的測序耗材增長。我們預計測序系統收入將同比增長 33%，這主要是由於 HiSeq 的持續轉換和 v1.5 試劑的採用導致 NovaSeq 的安置，以及由於 NextSeq 2000 和 DX 需求以及陣列的增長而導致的 NextSeq 安置與 2020 年相比增長 5%。

We expect full year non-GAAP gross margin to modestly improve from 2020, reflecting increased leverage from higher volumes and cost savings initiatives, partially offset by product mix and IVD partnership revenue in the first quarter of 2020. We expect 2021 operating margin to be approximately 24%. As volumes increase and freight charges normalize, we expect both gross and operating margins to improve in the second half of 2021 and be above the full year average.

我們預計全年非 GAAP 毛利率將從 2020 年開始適度改善，反映出更高的產量和成本節約舉措帶來的槓桿作用增加，部分被 2020 年第一季度的產品組合和 IVD 合作夥伴收入所抵消。我們預計 2021 年的營業利潤率約為24%。隨著銷量的增加和運費的正常化，我們預計 2021 年下半年的毛利率和營業利潤率都將提高，並高於全年平均水平。

We expect other income to be about $40 million lower than 2020 due to the gains in the fourth quarter of 2020, lower interest rates and shorter duration investments in anticipation of the close of the GRAIL acquisition. We expect GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $4.76 to $5.01 and non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $5.10 to $5.35. And we expect diluted shares outstanding in 2021 to be approximately 147 million.

我們預計其他收入將比 2020 年減少約 4000 萬美元，原因是 2020 年第四季度的收益、較低的利率和預期 GRAIL 收購完成的較短期限投資。我們預計 GAAP 每股收益在 4.76 美元至 5.01 美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益在 5.10 美元至 5.35 美元之間。我們預計 2021 年攤薄後的流通股約為 1.47 億股。

Moving to the first quarter of 2021, we are raising our previous expectations, and we now expect high single-digit revenue growth compared to the first quarter of 2020. We expect sequential improvement in non-GAAP gross margin; sequential decline in non-GAAP operating expenses, similar to historical seasonality; non-GAAP other income to be significantly lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 due to the onetime gain on short-term investments previously discussed and, as a result, we expect non-GAAP EPS to be slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.

轉到 2021 年第一季度，我們提高了之前的預期，我們現在預計與 2020 年第一季度相比，收入將實現高個位數增長。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將環比改善；非 GAAP 運營費用連續下降，與歷史季節性相似；由於先前討論的短期投資的一次性收益，非 GAAP 其他收入將比 2020 年第四季度顯著降低，因此，我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益將比 2020 年第四季度略高2020.

I'll hand the call back over to Francis for his final remarks.

我會將電話轉回給弗朗西斯，聽取他的最後評論。

We're off to a strong start in 2021. We're seeing strength in our core business and are playing an essential role in the emerging surveillance effort necessary to fight the pandemic. In the past couple of months, as new, more dangerous SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged, there has been a growing recognition of the need for COVID surveillance around the globe, with countries like the U.K., Australia, Canada and Germany leading the way in deploying national surveillance infrastructures. In the U.S. The proposed budget package contains $1.75 billion for the CDC to conduct, expand and improve activities to sequence genomes, identify mutations and survey the transmission of viruses, including SARS-CoV-2.

我們在 2021 年有了一個良好的開端。我們看到了我們核心業務的實力，並且在抗擊大流行病所必需的新興監測工作中發揮著至關重要的作用。在過去的幾個月裡，隨著新的、更危險的 SARS-CoV-2 變種的出現，人們越來越認識到在全球範圍內進行 COVID 監測的必要性，英國、澳大利亞、加拿大和德國等國家處於領先地位部署國家監控基礎設施的方式。在美國，擬議的一攬子預算包含 17.5 億美元，用於 CDC 開展、擴大和改進基因組測序、識別突變和調查病毒傳播的活動，包括 SARS-CoV-2。

Sequencing-based surveillance is one of the key elements in the fight against this pandemic. And it's also becoming clear that sequencing and surveillance are becoming mainstream in the defense against infectious disease. This global surveillance infrastructure being built right now will be instrumental in identifying future outbreaks, including coronaviruses, antimicrobial resistance and bioterrorism. Illumina is proud to be at the forefront of this important work.

基於測序的監測是抗擊這一流行病的關鍵要素之一。而且越來越明顯的是，測序和監測正在成為防禦傳染病的主流。目前正在建設的這一全球監測基礎設施將有助於確定未來的爆發，包括冠狀病毒、抗菌素耐藥性和生物恐怖主義。 Illumina 很自豪能夠站在這項重要工作的最前沿。

We'd also like to congratulate Nobel Laureate and Illumina Board member, Dr. Frances Arnold, who was named as Co-Chair of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors in Science and Technology. We believe the recent appointment of highly experienced scientists signal the administration's focus on science, including genomics, to improve life in the U.S. for everyone.

我們還要祝賀諾貝爾獎獲得者和 Illumina 董事會成員 Frances Arnold 博士，她被任命為美國總統科學技術顧問委員會的聯合主席。我們認為，最近對經驗豐富的科學家的任命標誌著政府對科學的關注，包括基因組學，以改善美國每個人的生活。

Finally, we continue to expect to close the GRAIL acquisition in the second half of this year, enabling us to help accelerate the adoption of early cancer detection screening and opening up the largest application for genomics by far. We're looking forward to GRAIL launching Galleri in Q2.

最後，我們繼續期望在今年下半年完成對 GRAIL 的收購，使我們能夠幫助加速早期癌症檢測篩查的採用，並開闢迄今為止最大的基因組學應用。我們期待 GRAIL 在第二季度推出 Galleri。

We see a vast number of opportunities ahead of us. And there has never been a more exciting time to be in genomics and at Illumina. Now I'll invite the operator to open up for Q&A.

我們看到了大量的機會擺在我們面前。現在是基因組學和 Illumina 的激動人心的時刻。下面我請接線員打開問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from Dan Brennan with UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Dan Brennan。

Great. I had 2-part question, Francis. I guess the first one, really for Sam, was just on the earnings guidance for next year. It includes a substantial amount of OpEx spending and really not getting much leverage so I'm hoping you can walk through that a little bit because the initial guide kind of surprised us. And then secondarily, I was hoping that you could walk through in terms of your sequencing guidance for next year, Francis, in terms of the NovaSeq success that you've had thus far. Of the remaining HiSeq existing customers that haven't converted, can you give a little more color kind of what's baked in, in terms of the new v1.5 launch and how many of those you expect to convert and kind of what's impacted in your guidance?

偉大的。弗朗西斯，我有兩部分問題。我想第一個，真正對 Sam 而言，只是關於明年的收益指導。它包括大量的 OpEx 支出，實際上並沒有獲得太多的槓桿作用，所以我希望你能稍微了解一下，因為最初的指南讓我們感到驚訝。其次，弗朗西斯，我希望你能根據你迄今為止在 NovaSeq 上取得的成功，完成明年的測序指南。在尚未轉換的其餘 HiSeq 現有客戶中，您能否就新的 v1.5 發布以及您希望轉換的客戶數量以及對您的影響的類型提供更多顏色？指導？

Yes. Thanks, Dan. So this is Sam. Hope you're doing well. So let me talk a little bit about the EPS guide of $5.10 to $5.35 for this year. Basically, we're expecting roughly 24% operating margin. So there is an element of OpEx growth in there. And part of that is a onetime also impact related to stock-based compensation that we talked about at JPMorgan when we provided the guide, which is related to 2 plans for -- the '19 and '20 plans that were significantly impacted by the pandemic and that we are modifying the targets on those plans. So that has a onetime catch-up expense in 2021 of approximately $50 million to $55 million, and that's really a significant portion of the OpEx growth. Beyond that, we are continuing to invest behind our platforms, behind our technologies, behind our assays so -- which we are committed to. R&D is a big commitment for us.

是的。謝謝，丹。所以這是山姆。希望你做得很好。因此，讓我談談今年 5.10 美元至 5.35 美元的每股收益指南。基本上，我們預計營業利潤率約為 24%。因此，其中存在運營支出增長的因素。其中一部分是與我們在摩根大通提供指南時談到的基於股票的薪酬相關的一次性影響，該指南與 2 個計劃有關——受大流行嚴重影響的 19 年和 20 年計劃並且我們正在修改這些計劃的目標。因此，這在 2021 年的一次性追趕費用約為 5000 萬至 5500 萬美元，這確實是 OpEx 增長的重要部分。除此之外，我們將繼續投資於我們的平台、我們的技術、我們的檢測——這是我們承諾的。研發是我們的一項重大承諾。

As we look forward, Dan, our goal is to continue to improve in terms of the leverage on our operating margin to get back to traditional operating margin levels that we had back in '19, which were close to 30%. That will take some time to get back to. But that's a commitment that we have, is to continue to drive operating leverage by making sure that we're very actively focused on G&A investments and reducing -- or making sure that those continue to grow beyond the rate of growth in revenues. But then we continue to invest in R&D and, to some extent, commercial as well. But we are committed over the long term to get back into operating leverage. And in fact, in the second half as well of the year, as we get past the pandemic, the second half, we expect to see an improvement in terms of both gross margin and operating margin versus the first half and definitely higher than the full year as well for gross margin and operating margin.

展望未來，Dan，我們的目標是繼續提高營業利潤率的槓桿作用，以恢復到 19 年接近 30% 的傳統營業利潤率水平。這需要一些時間才能恢復。但這是我們的承諾，即通過確保我們非常積極地專注於 G&A 投資並減少——或確保這些投資繼續增長超過收入增長率來繼續推動運營槓桿。但隨後我們繼續投資於研發，並在一定程度上投資於商業。但從長遠來看，我們致力於恢復運營槓桿。事實上，在今年下半年，隨著我們度過大流行病，下半年，我們預計毛利率和營業利潤率都將比上半年有所改善，而且肯定高於全年年以及毛利率和營業利潤率。

Super. Thanks, Sam. So Dan, now I'll take your question about NovaSeq this year and touch specifically also on the remaining HiSeq customers and how we're thinking about it this year. So I'll start by saying that, look, we're entering this year with a lot of momentum on NovaSeq. The version 1.5 NovaSeq reagents that we released in August really did a nice job in terms of unlocking the elasticity of demand in that high-throughput segment of the market. And so as we talked about, coming into this year, we're coming off a Q4 where, in our first quarter of selling the version 1.5 reagents, NovaSeq consumables had a record, growing mid-teens year-over-year, so very strong from a consumable perspective.

極好的。謝謝，山姆。所以 Dan，現在我將回答你今年關於 NovaSeq 的問題，並特別談到剩餘的 HiSeq 客戶以及我們今年是如何考慮的。所以我首先要說的是，看，我們進入今年時 NovaSeq 勢頭強勁。我們在 8 月份發布的 1.5 版 NovaSeq 試劑在釋放高通量市場需求彈性方面確實做得很好。因此，正如我們所說，進入今年，我們即將結束第四季度，在我們銷售 1.5 版試劑的第一季度，NovaSeq 耗材創下了記錄，同比增長了十幾歲，所以非常從消耗品的角度來看很強。

And we talked about the fact that in Q4, we also had our second-highest order in terms of bookings orders for NovaSeq. And the first highest was when we first launched NovaSeq back in 2017. So both from an instruments perspective and a consumables perspective, we're coming off a really strong Q4, and we're walking into this year with a really strong pipeline and a strong backlog following the orders that came in, in Q4. So as we think about this year then, there are 2 sources of demand we see for NovaSeq. One, and we talked about this in Q4 also, that we're seeing, because of 1.5, really an unlocking of demand from new to high-throughput customers. And if you think about it, in Q4, over half the bookings went to new to high-throughput customers. So again, that new pricing is opening up the market for new customers to come in.

我們談到了這樣一個事實，即在第四季度，我們在 NovaSeq 的預訂訂單方面也獲得了第二高的訂單。第一個最高點是我們在 2017 年首次推出 NovaSeq 時。因此，無論是從儀器的角度還是從消耗品的角度來看，我們都經歷了非常強勁的第四季度，我們將帶著非常強大的管道和在第四季度收到的訂單之後，大量積壓。因此，當我們考慮今年時，我們看到 NovaSeq 有兩個需求來源。第一，我們在第四季度也談到了這一點，我們看到，由於 1.5，真正釋放了新客戶對高吞吐量客戶的需求。如果你仔細想想，在第四季度，超過一半的預訂是給高吞吐量的新客戶的。因此，新定價再次為新客戶打開了市場。

And the other source of demand for NovaSeq coming into this year is the remaining HiSeq customers. And as we pointed out, there are -- of our original HiSeq base, we still have 320 customers that have yet to begin the upgrade cycle. And now with the lower pricing on 1.5, these typically smaller core labs now have a NovaSeq accessible to them. And if you look at the pricing now, all it takes for a HiSeq 2500 customer is for them to run about 4 high-output kits a month, and they can justify the list price of a NovaSeq in a year. In addition, with the 1.5 release, we extended the shelf life of the consumables from 3 months to 6 months, so they don't have to sequence as frequently to justify the upgrade. And then, finally, the new 35-cycle S4 kits also enables counting method now on the NovaSeq, which was important to those labs. So you add all those in, and we're walking into this year with strong momentum on the NovaSeq side, and that's what we expect to drive orders this year. In fact, we're expecting another strong year of NovaSeq orders coming into 2021.

今年對 NovaSeq 的另一個需求來源是剩餘的 HiSeq 客戶。正如我們所指出的，在我們最初的 HiSeq 基地中，我們仍有 320 名客戶尚未開始升級週期。現在，由於 1.5 的價格更低，這些通常較小的核心實驗室現在可以使用 NovaSeq。如果你看看現在的定價，一個 HiSeq 2500 客戶只需每月運行大約 4 個高產量試劑盒，他們就可以在一年內證明 NovaSeq 的標價是合理的。此外，在 1.5 版本中，我們將耗材的保質期從 3 個月延長到 6 個月，因此它們不必為了升級而頻繁排序。然後，最後，新的 35 循環 S4 套件現在還可以在 NovaSeq 上啟用計數方法，這對這些實驗室來說很重要。所以你把所有這些都加進去，我們將以 NovaSeq 方面的強勁勢頭進入今年，這就是我們預計今年將推動訂單的原因。事實上，我們預計 2021 年 NovaSeq 訂單又將強勁增長。

Your next question is from Tycho Peterson with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的第谷彼得森。

A couple of quick ones here. On the fourth quarter, was there any consumable stocking? We just hear about from one of your peers last night. And then how much of the record order book was catch-up spending versus, Francis, what you just talked about, the acceleration and adoption driven by the flow cell? And then I'm curious why margins were so soft. You did have the price adjustments, the inventory write-down and stock-based comp, but it seems like maybe there was more there. I'm curious if you're kind of pulling forward any spending.

這裡有幾個快速的。四季度有消耗品備貨嗎？我們昨晚剛從你的一位同事那裡聽說。然後，有多少記錄訂單是追趕支出，弗朗西斯，你剛才談到的，流動池驅動的加速和採用？然後我很好奇為什麼利潤率如此之低。你確實有價格調整、庫存減記和基於股票的補償，但似乎還有更多。我很好奇你是否在推動任何支出。

And then secondly, shifting to the outlook, it's good to see you're stepping up the first quarter guidance here versus what you gave at our conference. I'm just curious if there was something that changed in your outlook. The original guidance of down 9% to 10%, obviously, didn't really make a ton of sense. So this is more of what I think people had been expecting anyway, but I'm curious what drove that. And then Francis, more broadly, I'm wondering if you can comment on the surveillance opportunity, just how material you think that could be and how much of that you think ends up getting done on short versus long read?

其次，轉向前景，很高興看到你在這裡加強了第一季度的指導，而不是你在我們會議上給出的指導。我只是好奇你的看法是否發生了變化。顯然，最初的下降 9% 至 10% 的指導並沒有多大意義。所以這更多的是我認為人們一直期待的，但我很好奇是什麼推動了這一點。然後弗朗西斯，更廣泛地說，我想知道你是否可以評論監視機會，你認為這可能有多少材料，你認為有多少最終是通過短讀和長讀完成的？

Yes. So maybe I'll cover a couple of the points that you mentioned upfront, Tycho, and I'll let Francis talk about the surveillance aspect. So I think there's a lot there. So hopefully, I'll capture everything here. But in terms of Q4 stocking, listen, we had a very strong quarter in Q4. We did not see any unusual stocking beyond what you see traditionally at the year-end. I mean there's usually a reset of budgets at the end of Q4, academic budgets at the end of the year. So beyond what we usually see every year, we have not seen any unusual stocking in Q4.

是的。因此，第谷，也許我會介紹你前面提到的幾個要點，我會讓弗朗西斯談談監視方面的問題。所以我認為那裡有很多。所以希望我能在這裡捕捉到一切。但就第四季度庫存而言，聽著，我們在第四季度的表現非常強勁。我們沒有看到任何超出傳統年末庫存的異常庫存。我的意思是，通常在第四季度末會重置預算，即年底的學術預算。因此，除了我們通常每年都會看到的情況之外，我們在第四季度沒有看到任何異常的庫存。

And we validate this by looking at, basically, activity on our sequencers. We look at the activity, the data that we have, looking at all the active sequencers that we have that are connected. And in fact, we saw a strong increase in terms of activity levels in Q4 in terms of clinical, getting back and showing growth pre-pandemic levels and in terms of research now going basically at pre-pandemic levels. So pleased to see that and -- which validates that there wasn't any unusual stocking at the end of Q4.

我們基本上通過查看我們的音序器上的活動來驗證這一點。我們查看活動，我們擁有的數據，查看我們擁有的所有連接的活動排序器。事實上，我們看到第四季度的活動水平在臨床、恢復和顯示大流行前水平方面的活動水平有了強勁增長，就目前基本上處於大流行前水平的研究而言。很高興看到這一點——這證實了第四季度末沒有任何異常庫存。

In terms of gross margin, I think we talked about the drivers, Tycho. I mean we're still impacted by the pandemic. Freight is still a factor for us in Q4. We did have the onetime write-down on certain inventory, which was approximately a percentage point impact negatively on gross margin. And mix was an impact as well in Q4 because we had strong instruments in the quarter as well. So those are the things that impacted margins in Q4. We expect margins to improve in Q1, to progressively improve across 2021 and, in the second half, in fact, to be, as I said earlier, above the full year average and starting to get back to our -- what we call our normal levels of 70% plus -- not quite at 70% but close to that in the second half. So we definitely see that as we start to get out of the constraints driven by the pandemic and which resulted in higher freight and other higher expenses.

就毛利率而言，我想我們談到了司機 Tycho。我的意思是我們仍然受到大流行的影響。貨運仍然是我們在第四季度的一個因素。我們確實對某些存貨進行了一次性減記，這對毛利率產生了大約一個百分點的負面影響。混合在第四季度也產生了影響，因為我們在本季度也有強大的工具。所以這些都是影響第四季度利潤率的因素。我們預計第一季度利潤率將有所改善，並在整個 2021 年逐步改善，事實上，正如我之前所說，在下半年，利潤率將高於全年平均水平，並開始回到我們所謂的正常水平70% 以上的水平——不完全是 70%，但接近下半年的水平。因此，當我們開始擺脫大流行帶來的限制並導致運費和其他費用增加時，我們肯定會看到這一點。

With regards to Q1 outlook, we are pleased to be raising our Q1 outlook based on what we're seeing. We're seeing strength in the business. We're seeing strength in activity levels. Again, too early to comment specifically. It's been 4 weeks since the start of the year. But everything that we're seeing in terms of orders is really encouraging. So we are pleased with where the business has started.

關於第一季度展望，我們很高興根據我們所看到的情況提高第一季度展望。我們看到了業務的實力。我們看到了活動水平的增強。同樣，具體評論還為時過早。自今年年初以來已經過去了 4 週。但我們在訂單方面看到的一切都非常令人鼓舞。因此，我們對業務的起點感到滿意。

Yes. Let me build on Sam's remark. So you're right, Tycho, this is a significant raise for us in terms of what we were expecting for Q1 given what we shared at JPMorgan. And at JPMorgan, what we shared was very typical for our business and other players in our business, which is sequentially, from Q4 to Q1, because of the capital cycle, you expect a decrease in revenue. And that's what we called and we said, look, you should expect us to be flat to Q1 of last year. But we're seeing a lot more strength even in the first few weeks of the quarter. And that strength is coming from our core business, as Sam said, and we're monitoring both -- not just orders, but we're monitoring activity levels. And exiting Q4 and into Q1, we're seeing strong activity levels both from the clinical side of the business but also on the research side of the business.

是的。讓我以山姆的話為基礎。所以你是對的，Tycho，鑑於我們在摩根大通分享的內容，就我們對第一季度的預期而言，這對我們來說是一個重大的提升。在摩根大通，我們分享的內容對於我們的業務和我們業務中的其他參與者來說非常典型，從第四季度到第一季度，由於資本週期，您預計收入會下降。這就是我們所說的，我們說，看，你應該期望我們與去年第一季度持平。但即使在本季度的前幾週，我們也看到了更多的力量。正如 Sam 所說，這種力量來自我們的核心業務，我們正在監控兩者——不僅僅是訂單，而且我們正在監控活動水平。從第四季度開始進入第一季度，我們在業務的臨床方面和研究方面都看到了強勁的活動水平。

And so as we stand here, it's become clear to us that instead of being flat to a year ago, we're going to be up high single digits. And so we're coming pretty close to where we were in Q4. That's unusual in this business, but it really speaks to the strength that we're seeing in terms of orders coming in. Obviously, there's a lot of the year left, and so we're leaving the year guidance intact but, certainly, with strength in Q1.

因此，當我們站在這裡時，我們很清楚，我們不會與一年前持平，而是將達到高個位數。所以我們非常接近第四季度的水平。這在這個行業是不尋常的，但它確實說明了我們在訂單方面看到的實力。顯然，今年還有很多時間，所以我們保持年度指導不變，但當然，第一季度的實力。

In terms of surveillance, surveillance is something we've been talking about now for about a year. And the idea is that, in addition to rolling out testing infrastructure to fight this pandemic, you will need surveillance infrastructure to understand how the virus is spreading geographically and how it's mutating. And that information about mutations are essential to understand that the tools we're using to fight the pandemic, the diagnostics, the vaccines, the therapies, will continue to be effective. And really once the outbreak we started to see around Christmas of the B-117 variants in the U.K. and then the South African variant, that started to really get people to realize that we do need the surveillance infrastructure.

在監視方面，監視是我們現在談論了大約一年的事情。這個想法是，除了推出測試基礎設施來抗擊這種流行病之外，您還需要監視基礎設施來了解病毒如何在地理上傳播以及它是如何變異的。有關突變的信息對於了解我們用於抗擊大流行的工具、診斷、疫苗和療法將繼續有效至關重要。真的，一旦我們在聖誕節前後開始在英國看到 B-117 變種的爆發，然後是南非變種，這就開始真正讓人們意識到我們確實需要監視基礎設施。

So it didn't contribute much in terms of revenue in Q4, and we've only built in a modest amount in Q1. But you can see the activity, right? You can see the activity in COG-UK. You can see the activity in countries around the world, in France, in Germany, in Italy and Spain and really sort of around the world. And we expect that to continue over the course of this year as countries build out the surveillance infrastructures. And that's going to be a durable surveillance infrastructure. We're going to need it in the future to warn us of the next pandemic, to warn us of bioterrorist attacks, antimicrobial resistance.

因此，它在第四季度的收入方面貢獻不大，而且我們在第一季度的貢獻不大。但是你可以看到活動，對吧？您可以在 COG-UK 中查看活動。你可以看到世界各國的活動，在法國、德國、意大利和西班牙，實際上是在世界各地。我們預計，隨著各國建立監控基礎設施，這種情況將在今年繼續下去。這將是一個持久的監控基礎設施。將來我們將需要它來警告我們下一次大流行，警告我們生物恐怖襲擊和抗菌素耐藥性。

And what's interesting is that Illumina's technology is uniquely well suited for this need. And the reason for that is because we have unmatched accuracy. We can deliver at the highest scale. We can deliver the price point per sample that's necessary. And we also have the first cleared product for our customers to use. And so those things came together. And you'll see that playing out in the numbers, right? So right at the very beginning, we were the sequencer used in Wuhan. And then in Shanghai to publish the first viral genome. It was Illumina sequencing data that was used by the vaccine developers to develop the vaccines, the mRNA vaccines that are being used today. And that was because of the accuracy of the Illumina sequencing.

有趣的是，Illumina 的技術非常適合這種需求。這樣做的原因是因為我們擁有無與倫比的準確性。我們可以提供最大規模的服務。我們可以提供每個樣品所需的價格點。我們也有第一個清關產品供我們的客戶使用。所以這些事情走到了一起。你會在數字中看到這一點，對吧？所以一開始，我們就是在武漢使用的測序儀。然後在上海發表了第一個病毒基因組。疫苗開發人員使用 Illumina 測序數據來開發疫苗，即今天使用的 mRNA 疫苗。那是因為 Illumina 測序的準確性。

And now as you look at the large-scale initiatives, COG-UK and some of the other ones, it's Illumina sequencers that's being used because of the scale that we can achieve and the throughput and the turnaround time. And so you look at the numbers of the genomes in NGS, for example, and you will see that the vast majority of the data in NGS , the vast majority of the genomes that have been sequenced have been done on Illumina sequencers. And so very exciting, very important, starting now.

現在，當您查看大規模計劃、COG-UK 和其他一些計劃時，由於我們可以實現的規模、吞吐量和周轉時間，正在使用 Illumina 測序儀。因此，例如，您查看 NGS 中的基因組數量，您會看到 NGS 中的絕大多數數據，已經測序的絕大多數基因組都是在 Illumina 測序儀上完成的。非常令人興奮，非常重要，從現在開始。

Your next question is from Doug Schenkel with Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Doug Schenkel 和 Cowen。

Let me just rattle through them real quick. On NovaSeq utilization, NovaSeq consumables pull-through on an annualized basis, I believe, was above $1.2 million in the fourth quarter. I believe your expectation for 2021, at least in terms of what's embedded into guidance is $1.1 million to $1.2 million in per box. I'm just wondering what's driving the assumption for slightly lower utilization versus Q4, keeping in mind that there was no abnormal stocking in Q4. There's a couple of things I could think of, maybe it's just early in the year, uncertainty especially as we're coming out of the pandemic. Maybe it's the expectation for a lot more boxes being placed, which can pressure pull-through at least initially on an average basis. And/or it could have something to do with the v1.5 reagent pricing having an impact, so some detail on that assumption would be helpful.

讓我快速瀏覽一下。在 NovaSeq 利用率方面，我認為 NovaSeq 耗材在第四季度的年化收益超過 120 萬美元。我相信您對 2021 年的期望，至少就嵌入指導的內容而言，是每箱 110 萬至 120 萬美元。我只是想知道是什麼推動了與第四季度相比利用率略低的假設，請記住第四季度沒有異常庫存。有幾件事我能想到，也許只是今年年初，不確定性，尤其是當我們正從大流行中走出來時。也許這是對放置更多盒子的期望，這至少可以在平均基礎上對拉動產生壓力。和/或它可能與具有影響的 v1.5 試劑定價有關，因此有關該假設的一些細節會有所幫助。

And then the second thing I wanted to talk about was just GRAIL. Do you expect PATHFINDER data in Q1? Is that still the case? When would you expect to initiate registration studies? And can you share anything in terms of progress being made with self-insured employers, closed health care systems and/or concierge systems?

然後我想談的第二件事就是 GRAIL。您期待第一季度的 PATHFINDER 數據嗎？現在還是這樣嗎？您預計什麼時候開始註冊研究？你能分享一下與自我保險雇主、封閉式醫療保健系統和/或禮賓系統取得的進展嗎？

This is Sam. Maybe I'll start with your pull-through question, and then I'll let Francis talk to GRAIL. Yes, I think you hit the nail on the head with the comments that you made around pull-through. I mean we had a very, very, I would say, strong pull-through in Q4 in terms of $1.2 million per instrument. We were back to above pre-pandemic levels, actually at the high end of the guidance range in terms of pre pandemic levels. We do expect with the v1.5 that you will have -- that it will catalyze significant HiSeq conversion with those 320 remaining HiSeq customers, so those will start to also transition to NovaSeq. That has, I would say, a very -- a modest impact on pull-through on the downside, but also you have the large centers that will drive pull-through higher on the upside.

這是山姆。也許我會從你的引出式問題開始，然後讓 Francis 與 GRAIL 交談。是的，我認為您對 pull-through 的評論一語中的。我的意思是，就每台儀器的 120 萬美元而言，我們在第四季度取得了非常非常強勁的業績。我們回到了大流行前水平之上，實際上就大流行前水平而言處於指導範圍的高端。我們確實希望您將擁有 v1.5——它將促進 HiSeq 的 320 名剩餘 HiSeq 客戶進行重大轉換，因此這些客戶也將開始過渡到 NovaSeq。我想說，這對下行的拉動產生了非常適度的影響，但你也有大中心會推動上行拉動更高。

And -- but as you said, we're still in a pandemic year. The first 6 months of the year are expected to still be basically a pandemic reality, so to speak. And at this point, I think it's prudent that the guidance that we have and the expectation that we have is the $1.1 million to $1.2 million range. But very encouraged by what we saw in Q4.

而且——但正如你所說，我們仍處於大流行年。可以這麼說，預計今年前 6 個月基本上仍將是大流行的現實。在這一點上，我認為我們所擁有的指導和我們所擁有的期望是 110 萬至 120 萬美元的範圍是謹慎的。但我們在第四季度看到的情況讓我們感到非常鼓舞。

Yes. And if I could add on the GRAIL side. So no new update. So what that means is that GRAIL's on track for its PATHFINDER results, as they said at JPMorgan in their announcement for Q1, and they're on track for a Galleri launch in Q2. We know they are making progress with both health systems and self-insured employers. They haven't announced anything yet. But I know, for example, we are marching down the path at Illumina to make the GRAIL test available to our employees in the second half of this year. And as part of that process, our team has been engaged with other employers that are also in process with them. The big announcement, obviously, from the health system side was the announcement around the NHS, and that's tracking for the pilot to be launched this year. And as a reminder, that's 165,000 tests that they've committed to doing with the intent then, assuming that goes well, to do 1 million tests in 2024 and then do a population-wide rollout.

是的。如果我可以在 GRAIL 方面添加。所以沒有新的更新。因此，這意味著 GRAIL 有望實現其 PATHFINDER 結果，正如他們在摩根大通第一季度的公告中所說，並且他們有望在第二季度推出 Galleri。我們知道他們在衛生系統和自保雇主方面都取得了進展。他們還沒有宣布任何事情。但我知道，例如，我們正在推進 Illumina 的道路，以便在今年下半年向我們的員工提供 GRAIL 測試。作為該過程的一部分，我們的團隊一直在與其他也在與他們合作的雇主進行接觸。很明顯，來自衛生系統方面的重大公告是圍繞 NHS 的公告，這是對今年推出的試點項目的跟踪。提醒一下，這是他們承諾進行的 165,000 次測試，假設進展順利，在 2024 年進行 100 萬次測試，然後進行全民推廣。

Your next question is from Puneet Souda with SVB Leerink.

您的下一個問題來自 Puneet Souda 和 SVB Leerink。

20% sequencing consumable growth this year, just trying to understand a little bit in terms of you're pointing out a number of growth drivers here, easy comps, obviously, new chemistry, $600 genome discount that we saw in the fourth quarter. That's obviously driving elasticity of demand here as you would have expected. There is increase in COVID sequencing, COVID variants that's coming in. There's post-pandemic instrumentation buys and cancer patients potentially returning back as they get vaccinated in 2021 here. And MRD and screening, and those trials are ramping up, too. So just wanted to understand sort of -- why the conservatism at 20% given all of that as a backdrop?

今年測序耗材增長 20%，只是想了解一下您在這裡指出的一些增長驅動因素，簡單的比較，顯然，新化學，我們在第四季度看到的 600 美元基因組折扣。正如您所預期的那樣，這顯然正在推動這裡的需求彈性。 COVID 測序和 COVID 變體的增加。大流行後的儀器購買和癌症患者可能會在 2021 年在這裡接種疫苗後返回。還有 MRD 和篩查，這些試驗也在加速進行。所以只是想了解一下——為什麼在所有這些作為背景的情況下保守主義佔 20%？

And then I also wanted to understand -- well, first of all, I appreciate you providing the road map details in terms of product improvements that you expect. But wondering how should we look at that in light of the customer event that you have coming up here. And then lastly, if I could also touch on MRD. That's been a new focus area for GRAIL. So there are already 2 competitors in the place -- in the market there. So how do you position into that market? And also, how do you -- what's your expectation in terms of those other competitors? Obviously, they're running samples on Illumina sequencers, too. So what's your expectation for the MRD market here, acceleration over the next 1 to 3 years? I appreciate you taking these questions.

然後我也想了解——嗯，首先，我感謝你提供了你期望的產品改進方面的路線圖細節。但是想知道我們應該如何根據您來到這裡的客戶事件來看待它。最後，如果我還可以談談 MRD。這是 GRAIL 的一個新的關注領域。所以這個地方已經有兩個競爭對手——在市場上。那麼你如何定位到那個市場呢？而且，你如何 - 你對其他競爭對手的期望是什麼？顯然，他們也在 Illumina 測序儀上運行樣本。那麼您對 MRD 市場在未來 1 到 3 年的加速發展有何期望？感謝您提出這些問題。

Yes. Thanks, Puneet. Hope you're doing well. So this is Sam. I'll start with the sequencing consumable question, and then I'll let Francis comment on the road map question and the MRD one as well. So we are expecting 20% sequencing consumable growth this year for a number of reasons, there are some very good tailwinds in the business and strength in the core business that drive us to that. As you mentioned, additional market access and coverage for both on the NIPT side, on the genetic disease side, we're seeing definitely growth in the comprehensive genomic profiling on the oncology side, the v1.5 is a great introduction.

是的。謝謝，普尼特。希望你做得很好。所以這是山姆。我將從測序耗材問題開始，然後讓 Francis 評論路線圖問題和 MRD 問題。因此，由於多種原因，我們預計今年排序消耗品將增長 20%，業務中有一些非常好的順風和核心業務的實力推動我們實現這一目標。正如您所提到的，在 NIPT 方面、遺傳疾病方面的額外市場准入和覆蓋範圍，我們看到腫瘤學方面的綜合基因組分析肯定會增長，v1.5 是一個很好的介紹。

The COVID variants part, Puneet, we have not really assumed a significant impact of that in our guide. That's something that we're really encouraged by in terms of the surveillance aspect. We are seeing definitely strength from that. But again, a bit early to really size that for the full year. So that's not significantly included in our guide, I would say. And then, remember, one other thing as well is we're still -- and again, I don't want to sound like a broken record on this, but we're still in a pandemic year, and we still have an expectation here that for the first 6 months of the year that we are in a pandemic. So this -- I would not call this a normal year. But in the second half, we hope to be coming out of the pandemic definitely with the progress that's being made around vaccination rates as well. But all good points that you made. But hopefully, this gives you some additional background.

COVID 變體部分，Puneet，我們並沒有真正假設它在我們的指南中產生重大影響。就監視方面而言，這是我們真正感到鼓舞的事情。我們從中看到了絕對的力量。但同樣，要真正確定全年的規模還為時過早。所以我想說，我們的指南中並沒有顯著包含這些內容。然後，請記住，還有一件事是我們仍然——再一次，我不想在這方面聽起來像是破紀錄的，但我們仍處於大流行年，我們仍然有一個期望在這裡，今年的前 6 個月我們正處於大流行中。所以這 - 我不會稱之為正常的一年。但在下半年，我們希望在疫苗接種率方面取得進展，從而明確地擺脫大流行。但是你提出的所有優點。但希望這能為您提供一些額外的背景知識。

Yes. So now I will talk about 2 things. I'll talk about the customer event, I'll talk about the road map and I'll talk about the GRAIL MRD test. So we do have a customer event. It's going to be sort of our first global this year virtual customer event that we will have at the tail end of April. It's shaping up to be a terrific event. And we have some fabulous speakers, and we have tracks for different segments of our customer base. So there'll be a track, for example, on population sequencing where we will convene some of the largest population sequencing initiatives around the world to come together, share best practices and learn from each other. And we'll do the same thing on oncology testing and so on.

是的。所以現在我要談兩件事。我會談論客戶事件，我會談論路線圖，我會談論 GRAIL MRD 測試。所以我們確實有一個客戶活動。這將是我們今年第一個全球虛擬客戶活動，我們將在 4 月底舉行。它正在形成一個了不起的事件。我們有一些很棒的演講者，我們有針對不同客戶群的曲目。因此，將有一個軌道，例如，關於人口測序，我們將召集世界上一些最大的人口測序計劃，聚集在一起，分享最佳實踐並相互學習。我們將在腫瘤學測試等方面做同樣的事情。

I suspect where you were going with that, Puneet, was so are we going to announce anything at the customer event. And I've been on the record of saying I'd love to announce products in front of customers rather than in front of bankers. But obviously, I can't say what we're going to do in terms of product road maps. As a company, we don't preannounce products. What we did announce recently was the P1 flow cell on the NextSeq. We announced ICA, the connected analytics platform at JPMorgan, which is seeing a really nice [addition] (corrected by the company after the call) in population sequencing efforts. And obviously, the v1.5. So you'll just have to stay tuned in terms of what we announced when.

Puneet，我懷疑你的意思是我們要在客戶活動中宣布任何事情。而且我一直公開表示我願意在客戶面前而不是在銀行家面前宣布產品。但顯然，我不能說我們在產品路線圖方面要做什麼。作為一家公司，我們不會預先發布產品。我們最近宣布的是 NextSeq 上的 P1 流動槽。我們宣布了摩根大通的連接分析平台 ICA，它在人口測序工作中看到了一個非常好的 [addition]（由公司在電話會議後更正）。顯然，v1.5。所以你只需要繼續關注我們宣布的時間。

In terms of the GRAIL -- just MRD in general and the GRAIL MRD test. We are very excited about the impact on the patient side from having an MRD test. We think that that will improve life for cancer patients, enable them to catch recurrence earlier. And that's going to be an important market and is a big opportunity. But as you said, there are 2 customers already of ours that have MRD tests. We will support them. We want to make sure they're hugely successful because this is an important segment and a large segment as a genomics application as well. So we'll continue to do everything we can to make sure they're successful.

就 GRAIL 而言——只是一般的 MRD 和 GRAIL MRD 測試。我們對 MRD 測試對患者方面的影響感到非常興奮。我們認為這將改善癌症患者的生活，使他們能夠及早發現復發。這將是一個重要的市場，也是一個巨大的機會。但正如您所說，我們已經有 2 位客戶進行了 MRD 測試。我們會支持他們。我們希望確保他們取得巨大成功，因為這是一個重要的部分，也是基因組學應用的一個很大部分。因此，我們將繼續竭盡所能確保他們取得成功。

We're also excited about GRAIL's MRD test. And GRAIL has a little bit of a different take on their approach on MRD. And the difference between what GRAIL is trying to do and what some of the other players are trying to do is that some of the tests that exist in the market today are patient-specific tests. And so the way it works is you do a tumor profile on a particular patient's cancer and you -- based on the tissue sample you take from that patient, and then you create the test for that cancer patient. Then you -- and you run that as a blood test then going forward. So a terrific test, very important, very groundbreaking, but because you're taking a tissue sample and you're building a patient-specific test, it does take some time.

我們也對 GRAIL 的 MRD 測試感到興奮。 GRAIL 對他們的 MRD 方法有一點不同的看法。 GRAIL 正在嘗試做的事情與其他一些參與者正在嘗試做的事情之間的區別在於，當今市場上存在的一些測試是針對特定患者的測試。因此，它的工作方式是對特定患者的癌症進行腫瘤分析，然後根據從該患者身上採集的組織樣本，然後為該癌症患者創建測試。然後你 - 然後你將其作為血液測試然後繼續進行。所以這是一個了不起的測試，非常重要，非常具有開創性，但是因為你正在採集組織樣本並且你正在構建針對患者的測試，所以它確實需要一些時間。

GRAIL is using a different approach. They're basing their MRD test on their screening test, which means it isn't patient specific, that it's the single blood test that they use for screening that they're using for MRD as well. That should significantly compress the time frame in terms of having that test available for a patient and doesn't require a tissue biopsy. And so we think they have a differentiated view in the market, and we're excited about bringing that to the market as well and giving patients the choice. Over the last few weeks, GRAIL announced some important partnerships. So at JPMorgan, we talked about the fact that GRAIL announced partnerships with Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb as partners for its MRD test, obviously, a terrific set of partners and continues to show good momentum around the development of that test of GRAIL.

GRAIL 使用不同的方法。他們將他們的 MRD 測試建立在他們的篩選測試的基礎上，這意味著它不是特定於患者的，這是他們用於篩選的單一血液測試，他們也用於 MRD。就為患者提供該測試並且不需要組織活檢而言，這應該會大大壓縮時間範圍。因此，我們認為他們對市場有不同的看法，我們很高興將其推向市場並為患者提供選擇。在過去幾週，GRAIL 宣布了一些重要的合作夥伴關係。因此，在摩根大通，我們談到了一個事實，即 GRAIL 宣布與安進、阿斯利康、百時美施貴寶建立合作夥伴關係，作為其 MRD 測試的合作夥伴，顯然，這是一組了不起的合作夥伴，並繼續圍繞 GRAIL 測試的開發顯示出良好的勢頭.

Your next question is from Derik DeBruin with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Derik DeBruin。

So 2 questions. So first one I would just want to talk about is, can you talk a little bit about the future expectations for the mid-range instruments for the NextSeq and MiSeq as you look into '21? I appreciate the color on the NovaSeq, but some commentary there would be helpful, particularly, I think on the NextSeq as you're sort of placing more instruments on the 2000 and 1000 side. And then the other side -- the other question is a follow-up on Doug's. Can you talk a little bit on GRAIL in terms of thinking about how you're going to do with sales and marketing plan here and how you're going to address customers? I mean do you need to go out and build or buy a more primary care sales force given where your current business is not exactly targeting that market? I'm just sort of curious in terms of your commercialization plans and how you think about the go-to-market strategy.

所以2個問題。因此，我只想談的第一個問題是，在您展望 21 年時，您能否談談對 NextSeq 和 MiSeq 中檔儀器的未來期望？我很欣賞 NovaSeq 上的顏色，但那裡的一些評論會有所幫助，特別是，我認為在 NextSeq 上，因為您在 2000 和 1000 端放置了更多儀器。然後是另一邊——另一個問題是對 Doug 的後續問題。您能否就 GRAIL 談談您將如何處理這裡的銷售和營銷計劃以及如何與客戶打交道？我的意思是，鑑於您當前的業務並不完全針對該市場，您是否需要出去建立或購買更多的初級保健銷售人員？我只是對您的商業化計劃以及您如何看待上市戰略感到好奇。

So maybe I will start with the pull-through question -- and thanks, Derik, by the way -- and Francis can talk about GRAIL. With regards to pull-through on the mid-throughput and low throughput, Derik, so starting with NextSeq, we will not yet give a pull-through expectation for NextSeq. There's a lot of moving parts there, as you know, with regards to NextSeq 2000, the introduction being fairly recently at the end of Q1 of last year, with the NextSeq 1000 coming into the mix as well late in the year. And so those will have an impact on NextSeq 550, and we're still evaluating what the potential pull-through would look like in terms of NextSeq 2000. So it would be premature right now to give a guidance range around what the pull-through expectation is there.

因此，也許我會從直通式問題開始——順便說一下，謝謝 Derik——Francis 可以談談 GRAIL。關於中通量和低通量的 pull-through，Derik，所以從 NextSeq 開始，我們還不會對 NextSeq 給出 pull-through 期望。如您所知，NextSeq 2000 有很多變動的部分，最近是在去年第一季度末推出的，NextSeq 1000 也在今年年底推出。因此，這些將對 NextSeq 550 產生影響，我們仍在評估 NextSeq 2000 的潛在 pull-through 是什麼樣子。因此現在就 pull-through 的範圍給出指導範圍還為時過早期望是存在的。

With regards to low throughput, MiSeq and MiniSeq as well. MiSeq was impacted by the pandemic in 2020. So usually, we give a guidance range of 40,000 to 45,000 per box on MiSeq. It was impacted by the pandemic in 2020, so it was well below that. And then it started to approach that lower end of the range towards the end of 2020 in terms of the high 30s. So right now, we're expecting somewhere, for MiSeq, close to 35,000 to 40,000 in terms of MiSeq pull-through per box for 2021. With regards to MiniSeq, usually, the range is 20,000 to 25,000, and we are expecting to be on the low end of that range for MiniSeq.

對於低通量，MiSeq 和 MiniSeq 也是如此。 MiSeq在2020年受到了疫情的影響，所以通常我們給MiSeq的指導範圍是每盒40,000到45,000。它在 2020 年受到大流行的影響，因此遠低於該水平。然後它開始接近 2020 年底範圍的下限，即 30 多歲的高位。所以現在，對於 MiSeq，我們預計 2021 年每盒 MiSeq pull-through 接近 35,000 到 40,000。關於 MiniSeq，通常範圍是 20,000 到 25,000，我們預計在 MiniSeq 範圍的低端。

Thanks, Sam. So let me pick up then on the commercialization plan for GRAIL. So let me start by saying that post acquisition, the intent is to run GRAIL as a separate division. So it's going to have its own sort of end-to-end infrastructure. The go-to-market plan for GRAIL, and you started to see glimpses of this, is not going to be to build this big direct-to-physician sales force necessarily. The initial plan for GRAIL is to sell to -- it's a B2B model, right, to sell to health systems, national health systems like the deal they talked about with the NHS, for example, but also integrated health systems in the U.S. to sell to concierge health systems and to sell to self-insured employers. And so that's an enterprise sale, a B2B sale. So similar to what we do at Illumina, obviously, a little bit different, but we also have an enterprise sales force. And so that's the intent with GRAIL going forward.

謝謝，山姆。那麼讓我來談談 GRAIL 的商業化計劃。所以讓我首先說收購後的目的是將 GRAIL 作為一個單獨的部門運行。所以它將擁有自己的端到端基礎設施。 GRAIL 的上市計劃，你開始看到這一點，不一定要建立這個龐大的直接面向醫生的銷售隊伍。 GRAIL 的最初計劃是出售給——它是一種 B2B 模式，對，出售給衛生系統，國家衛生系統，例如他們與 NHS 談論的交易，但也包括美國的綜合衛生系統以出售禮賓保健系統並出售給自我保險的雇主。這就是企業銷售，B2B 銷售。與我們在 Illumina 所做的非常相似，顯然有一點不同，但我們也有一支企業銷售隊伍。這就是 GRAIL 前進的意圖。

And while there might be some patient advocacy and some education, I think one of the advantages that GRAIL have relative to some of the tests in the market today is that it's a blood test. And it doesn't require a lot of pushing to get people to be compliant with the test that they have to take home, for example. And so it's a little bit of a different model that they're using. Again, they are using that model today. So they have sort of an IDE from the FDA, and they are returning results to patients in some really top-tier health care systems, like the Cleveland [Clinic] (added by the company after the call) and so on. And so that's the model that they are refining. That's the model that's going to be rolled out at the NHS. And so that's the model we expect to continue going forward.

雖然可能會有一些患者宣傳和一些教育，但我認為 GRAIL 相對於當今市場上的一些測試的優勢之一是它是一种血液測試。例如，不需要太多的推動就可以讓人們遵守他們必須帶回家的測試。因此，他們使用的模型有點不同。同樣，他們今天正在使用該模型。因此，他們有某種來自 FDA 的 IDE，並且他們正在將結果返回給一些真正頂級的醫療保健系統中的患者，例如 Cleveland [Clinic]（由公司在電話會議後添加）等。這就是他們正在完善的模型。這就是將要在 NHS 推出的模型。這就是我們期望繼續前進的模式。

Your next question is from Patrick Donnelly with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的 Patrick Donnelly。

Great. I had a couple just on China. You guys saw the highest instrument revenue in a few years there in the fourth quarter. I think you talked about seeing some more adoption in the hospital side. Can you just provide a bit more color on what you're seeing in that region? Also, it would be great to get an update on the competitive landscape. Have you seen any changes in China in terms of competitive behavior? And then lastly, probably for Sam, just on the guidance, what are you assuming for China in terms of the outlook?

偉大的。我在中國有一對夫婦。你們在第四季度看到了幾年來最高的儀器收入。我想你談到了在醫院方面看到更多的收養。您能否就您在該地區看到的情況提供更多顏色？此外，很高興了解競爭格局的最新情況。您是否看到中國在競爭行為方面有任何變化？最後，可能對於 Sam，就指導而言，您對中國的前景有何假設？

Yes. So maybe I will start with the last part because it's easy. So we are expecting revenue growth for China that exceeds our overall revenue growth as a company, so I would say slightly above our overall revenue growth. And we're seeing very encouraging things in China as evidenced by the performance in Q4 and the instrument number that you talked about. But I'll let maybe Francis give some additional color.

是的。所以也許我會從最後一部分開始，因為它很簡單。因此，我們預計中國的收入增長將超過我們作為一家公司的整體收入增長，所以我會說略高於我們的整體收入增長。我們在中國看到了非常令人鼓舞的事情，第四季度的表現和你談到的儀器數量就證明了這一點。但我也許會讓 Francis 給出一些額外的顏色。

Yes, so let me pick up on that. So we are, obviously, very bullish in China in the sense that we expect China to grow faster than the overall company in 2021. So what's driving that? A few things. One, we're now starting to see sort of the next wave of adoption in the clinical market in China. And so we're seeing more hospitals embrace sequencing in their own hospital labs. And so that's sort of a wave that started to grow last year and, certainly, sort of picking up as we entered this year. That was part of the reason why this last quarter in Q4 was the highest quarter we've had for instruments since 2017 when we launched NovaSeq. And that was driven partially by hospitals starting to embrace sequencing and sort of bringing it into their labs.

是的，所以讓我來談談。因此，我們顯然非常看好中國，因為我們預計中國在 2021 年的增長速度將超過整個公司。那麼是什麼推動了這一點？一些東西。第一，我們現在開始看到中國臨床市場的下一波採用浪潮。因此，我們看到越來越多的醫院在自己的醫院實驗室中接受測序。所以這是一種從去年開始增長的浪潮，當然，隨著我們進入今年，這種浪潮會有所回升。這就是為什麼第四季度的最後一個季度是我們自 2017 年推出 NovaSeq 以來儀器的最高季度的部分原因。這部分是由於醫院開始接受測序並將其帶入他們的實驗室。

We are seeing COVID drive some purchasing of sequencing. We talked about the fact that, again, we got called into Wuhan in December 2019. We've been involved since then as part of their pandemic-fighting efforts. That's a part of this business. And again, it's part of a durable surveillance infrastructure that's being built out. And then we continue to be long-term excited about the opportunity in China. And you saw us, for example, announce the partnership with one of the top venture capital firms in China, Sequoia Capital China, to launch a genomic incubator in China, to catalyze the next-generation of exciting genomics applications that leverage Illumina's sequencing technology.

我們看到 COVID 推動了一些測序購買。我們談到了一個事實，即我們於 2019 年 12 月再次被召集到武漢。從那時起，我們就一直參與到他們抗擊大流行病的工作中。這是這項業務的一部分。同樣，它是正在建設的持久監控基礎設施的一部分。然後我們繼續對中國的機會感到長期興奮。例如，你看到我們宣布與中國頂級風險投資公司之一紅杉資本中國建立合作夥伴關係，在中國推出基因組孵化器，以促進利用 Illumina 測序技術的下一代令人興奮的基因組學應用。

Your next question is from Sung Ji Nam with BTIG.

你的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Sung Ji Nam。

Just a couple of quick ones. One is, just going back to the surveillance opportunity for COVID and other applications in the future, I don't know if it's too early, but would you be able to kind of talk about what that -- the market potential might be going forward? And if not, is this something -- is this an infrastructure that's kind of the scale that the flu surveillance infrastructure might be currently? Or is there a much larger scale kind of effort? And then just second question is, you guys talked about the improvement on the flow cell, the order of magnitude improvement, leading to roughly 90% of cost savings for the flow cell. What does that translate into in terms of the total all-in cost per genome?

只是幾個快速的。一是，回到未來 COVID 和其他應用程序的監控機會，我不知道現在是否為時過早，但你能談談那是什麼——市場潛力可能會向前發展嗎？如果不是，這是什麼——這是一種基礎設施，其規模與流感監測基礎設施目前的規模相當嗎？或者是否有更大規模的努力？然後第二個問題是，你們談到了流動池的改進，數量級的改進，導致流動池的成本節省大約 90%。就每個基因組的總成本而言，這意味著什麼？

So maybe I'll start and talk about the surveillance opportunity. It's too early to size the surveillance opportunity, I think, is sort of the short answer. But in terms of how to think about this, I think it's done right, it's significantly bigger than what we have today with the flu. And obviously, this pandemic was sort of a wake-up moment from so many perspectives. I'll give you one example. We were talking to officials from the U.S. government at some point in sort of late Q1, early Q2, and there was a realization that we have the coronavirus spreading in the U.S. for weeks, and people were dying, maybe months, and we didn't even know that we had it. And that's a huge wake-up call because that's important not just for a coronavirus pandemic but it has implications around surveillance for bioterrorism, for example. And so the wake-up call is to say, look, we need the surveillance infrastructure, and we need a global surveillance infrastructure. It's got to be genomic-based, and it's got to watch for emerging antimicrobial resistance, new pathogens, bioterrorism. The scope of that is significantly bigger than flu tracking that happens today.

所以也許我會開始談論監視機會。我認為，現在確定監視機會的大小還為時過早，這是一個簡短的答案。但就如何思考這個問題而言，我認為它做得對，它比我們今天的流感大得多。顯然，從很多角度來看，這場大流行病都是一個清醒的時刻。我給你舉一個例子。我們在第一季度末、第二季度初的某個時候與美國政府官員進行了交談，我們意識到冠狀病毒在美國傳播了數週之久，人們正在死亡，也許數月之久，但我們沒有”甚至不知道我們擁有它。這是一個巨大的警鐘，因為這不僅對冠狀病毒大流行很重要，而且對監視生物恐怖主義等也有影響。所以警鐘是說，看，我們需要監控基礎設施，我們需要一個全球監控基礎設施。它必須以基因組為基礎，並且必須注意新出現的抗菌素耐藥性、新病原體和生物恐怖主義。其範圍比今天發生的流感追踪要大得多。

The other interesting dynamic that's playing out is this is absolutely a public health infrastructure, essential for public health, absolutely. But it's also a defense infrastructure. And the 2 are funded very differently, right? So public health, as you know, goes from panic to starvation, right? So there's the panic, infrastructure that gets built and then maybe doesn't always get the funding follow-through. Defense is not like that. And so this is going to be a combination of both. It's going to be a public health infrastructure, and it's going to be part of the national defense infrastructure. And so if you think about this long term, it's definitely got a scope that's significantly bigger in terms of thinking than what we do with flu today.

正在上演的另一個有趣的動態是，這絕對是一個公共衛生基礎設施，對公共衛生來說絕對是必不可少的。但它也是一個國防基礎設施。兩者的資金來源非常不同，對吧？所以公共衛生，正如你所知，從恐慌到飢餓，對吧？所以有恐慌，基礎設施已經建成，但可能並不總是能得到後續資金。防守不是那樣的。所以這將是兩者的結合。它將成為公共衛生基礎設施，並將成為國防基礎設施的一部分。因此，如果你從長遠考慮，它的思考範圍肯定比我們今天對流感的思考範圍要大得多。

Yes. And Sung Ji, with regards to the 90% reduction, I mean, Francis introduced some really exciting innovation road map and technology road map items at JPMorgan. And the 90% reduction in terms of cost is really talking about not a product that we have today but really the road map that we have and the technologies that we have today that will become a product that takes us to the $100 genome and below that even in terms of a cost per genome.

是的。 Sung Ji，關於 90% 的減少，我的意思是，弗朗西斯在摩根大通介紹了一些非常令人興奮的創新路線圖和技術路線圖項目。成本降低 90% 並不是我們今天擁有的產品，而是我們今天擁有的路線圖和我們今天擁有的技術，它們將成為將我們帶到 100 美元及以下基因組的產品即使就每個基因組的成本而言。

Your final question is from Tejas Savant with Morgan Stanley.

你的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Tejas Savant。

One quick cleanup on COVID surveillance, Francis. On the P1 flow cell, I believe it's shipping in the second half of the year. Is there anything you can do to pull that forward in terms of the launch time line given the focus on surveillance both in the U.S. and abroad and this need for a lower-throughput NextSeq option? And then my second question is on GRAIL. In the past, you sort of alluded to the possibility of potentially some sort of a risk-sharing structure and sort of Illumina being on the hook for -- or other payers being on the hook for a rise in overall diagnostic testing costs following Galleri deployment in order to encourage customers to participate in pilots. Have you sort of like chopped any wood in terms of implementing those sort of arrangements just yet? Or is it still too early?

弗朗西斯，快速清理 COVID 監控。關於 P1 流通池，我相信它會在下半年發貨。考慮到美國和國外對監控的關注以及對低通量 NextSeq 選項的需求，您是否可以採取任何措施來推動啟動時間表？然後我的第二個問題是關於 GRAIL 的。過去，你提到了潛在的某種風險分擔結構和 Illumina 的可能性——或者其他付款人在 Galleri 部署後因整體診斷測試成本上升而陷入困境以鼓勵客戶參與試點。在實施此類安排方面，您是否有點喜歡砍柴？還是現在還為時過早？

Got it. So let me answer the P1 question and then pick up on the sort of, I guess, partnerships. I'll start by saying now you know how I feel, right, in the sense that we have this incredible portfolio of products that our engineering team is building. And just every one of them I wish we could get earlier because when I think about the impact -- and it's 18% of our revenue we spend in R&D and it's a breathtaking set of products that the team is building. They're going as fast as they can to get the product out with the quality they need, especially given the important work that our customers do with our products. So while I'd love to, the reality is we can't pull P1 forward, although I know people really, really want it. And that's true across our entire portfolio. And I think you're right, it will actually have -- it will have really an important role to play even in surveillance.

知道了。因此，讓我回答 P1 的問題，然後我猜是那種夥伴關係。我首先要說的是，現在你知道我的感受了，對，因為我們擁有我們的工程團隊正在構建的令人難以置信的產品組合。我希望他們中的每一個都能早點得到，因為當我考慮影響時——我們將 18% 的收入用於研發，這是團隊正在構建的一組令人驚嘆的產品。他們正在盡可能快地以他們需要的質量推出產品，特別是考慮到我們的客戶對我們的產品所做的重要工作。所以雖然我很樂意，但現實是我們無法推動 P1 向前發展，儘管我知道人們真的非常想要它。在我們的整個產品組合中都是如此。而且我認為你是對的，它實際上會 - 即使在監視中也會發揮非常重要的作用。

I think your second question was around the partnerships that we were looking to do with other customers in the oncology diagnostics space that we're looking to get into screening. And we're making progress with those customers. We've signed supply agreements, long-term supply agreements, with some of those customers and continuing dialogue with the remaining customers. And so our commitment is to continue to supply them with the technology they need and make sure that they have all equal access to the technologies that we commercialize going forward. In some cases, those are agreements that are over a decade long. And that's great for our customers. That's great for us, too.

我認為你的第二個問題是關於我們希望與我們希望進入篩查的腫瘤診斷領域的其他客戶建立的合作夥伴關係。我們正在與這些客戶取得進展。我們已經與其中一些客戶簽署了供應協議、長期供應協議，並繼續與其餘客戶進行對話。因此，我們的承諾是繼續為他們提供他們需要的技術，並確保他們能夠平等地獲得我們未來商業化的技術。在某些情況下，這些協議的期限超過十年。這對我們的客戶來說非常好。這對我們也很好。

And there are no further questions at this time. Your closing remarks, please.

目前沒有其他問題。請結束語。

Yes. Thank you so much, everyone, for the great questions. As a reminder, there is a replay of this call that will be available tomorrow on our website, on the Investor Relations page. We look forward to updating you on our progress after the close of Q1. Take care.

是的。非常感謝大家提出的重要問題。提醒一下，明天將在我們網站的“投資者關係”頁面上重播此次電話會議。我們期待在第一季度結束後向您通報我們的進展情況。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。