InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

-- take your first question. I will summarize our strong performance.

——回答你的第一個問題。我將總結一下我們的強勁表現。

Our rev bar grew by 3%, with momentum improving across all regions in Q4. We delivered gross system growth of 6.2% and net system growth of 4.3%, representing the third consecutive year of accelerating system growth.

我們的收入成長了 3%，第四季所有地區的勢頭都有所改善。我們實現了總系統成長 6.2%，淨系統成長 4.3%，這是連續第三年加速系統成長。

We signed 106,000 rooms across 714 hotels, delivering a 34% increase in signings over 2023. We expanded our fee margin by 190 basis points, driven by 130 basis points of uplift from operating leverage and 60 basis points of uplift from new ancillary fee agreements. EBIT grew 10% and adjusted EPS grew 15%.

我們在 714 家飯店簽約了 106,000 間客房，簽約數量比 2023 年增加了 34%。我們將費用利潤率提高了 190 個基點，其中，營業槓桿提高了 130 個基點，新附加費用協議提高了 60 個基點。EBIT 成長 10%，調整後 EPS 成長 15%。

We completed our $800 million share buyback program, which together with ordinary dividends, returned over $1 billion to shareholders. And today, we announced the launch of a new $900 million share buyback program, which together with dividend payments, is expected to return over $1.1 billion to shareholders in 2025. And we announced the acquisition of the Ruby brand for $116 million, a premium urban lifestyle brand.

我們完成了 8 億美元的股票回購計劃，加上普通股息，向股東返還了超過 10 億美元。今天，我們宣布啟動一項新的 9 億美元股票回購計劃，加上股息支付，預計將在 2025 年為股東帶來超過 11 億美元的回報。我們宣布以 1.16 億美元收購高端都市生活風格品牌 Ruby。

In summary, we made excellent progress in our strategic priorities and are confident in the strengths of our enterprise platform and the attractive long-term growth outlook. And with that, let me turn it over to the operator to take the first question.

總而言之，我們在策略重點方面取得了顯著進展，並對我們的企業平台的優勢和誘人的長期成長前景充滿信心。現在，請容許我把麥克風交給接線員來回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jamie Rollo, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的 Jamie Rollo。

Just starting with the key money, if I may, you're talking about over $200 million, well, it was over $200 million last year and probably up a bit this year, that's about 3 times what it was in 2019. I just want to work out if that's simply the impact of NOVUM and the high mix of luxury or is there something else in terms of the competitive environment driving that. And also, Michael, what's the sort of revenue impact from that because I think you deducted off your fees, and we're now looking at a CapEx figure running into the mid-10s percentage of your fee income.

我先從關鍵資金開始，如果可以的話，你說的是超過 2 億美元，嗯，去年是超過 2 億美元，今年可能有所增加，大約是 2019 年的 3 倍。我只是想知道這是否只是 NOVUM 和高混合奢華的影響，還是競爭環境中的其他因素推動了這種影響。而且，邁克爾，這對收入有什麼影響？

Secondly, a very good margin, performance cost the group, but just in the Americas that down 100 basis points, you flag certain one-time costs, if you could please quantify that. And also, why were the fees in the Americas in the second half only up 1% that revenue when knock was up about 2% and rev piles of around 3%.

其次，利潤率非常好，業績成本是集團的損失，但僅在美洲，就下降了 100 個基點，您標記了某些一次性成本，如果您可以量化這一點的話。而且，為什麼下半年美洲地區的費用只增加了 1%，而收入卻增加了 2% 左右，而收入卻增加了 3% 左右？

And then finally, in China, you've clarified that the removals was a bit of a one-off that 3%, but the openings and sidings were also down a bit in the fourth quarter. Do you see any changes just generally to the development picture in China, and should we still expect sort of high-single digit net unit growth there this year? Thanks.

最後，在中國，您已經澄清說，拆除量是一次性的 3%，但第四季的開口和側線也略有下降。您是否認為中國的發展前景總體上會發生一些變化？謝謝。

Yeah, Jamie, I'll start with the key money. When you look at key money, yeah, last year we got it at between $150 million and $200 million. It came in a little ahead of that. This year, we're guiding $200 million to $250 million, but in total CapEx, we're still within that $350 million guidance we've given historically. So, we still expect to come within that.

是的，傑米，我先從押金開始。當你看到禮金時，是的，去年我們的禮金在 1.5 億到 2 億美元之間。它比那稍早一點出現。今年，我們的預期是 2 億至 2.5 億美元，但就總資本支出而言，我們仍在過去給出的 3.5 億美元預期範圍內。因此，我們仍然期望能夠實現這一目標。

And I think you have really three dynamics going on as we shift into premium and luxury and lifestyle that's driving a significant more amount of key money. In fact, nearly 40% of our openings in the year we're in premium and luxury and lifestyle, that's obviously driving it. And of course, with NOVUM, we don't have many deals like that where we get 17,000 rooms kind of all at once that has driven a bit of key money and that'll have a little bit of an impact into next year as well.

我認為，隨著我們轉向高端、奢華和生活方式，實際上有三種動態，它們將帶來更多的關鍵資金。事實上，我們今年新開酒店中近 40% 都屬於高端、奢華和生活方式酒店，這顯然是推動其發展的因素。當然，對於 NOVUM 來說，我們並沒有太多這樣的交易，例如一次獲得 17,000 間客房，這會帶來一些禮金，也會對明年產生一些影響。

And then I think the third factor that it's maybe not as clear as you've increased -- as we've increased the number of conversions, those hotels don't stay in the pipeline as long as they have historically when you have a new bill. And so as you kind of move forward with that, you're seeing kind of that uptick in conversions happening and that key money accelerated in as a result of some of the conversion activity.

然後我認為第三個因素可能並不像你提到的那麼明顯——隨著我們增加了轉換次數，當你有新賬單時，這些酒店不會像歷史上那樣長時間停留在渠道中。因此，隨著您繼續推進這一進程，您會看到轉換率出現上升趨勢，並且由於某些轉換活動，關鍵資金的流入也加速了。

So in terms of competitiveness, I think we're actually still around the same amount that we give on a on a per unit basis, and we haven't really seen any creep from that perspective. So, it's just really those three factors. From a revenue impact of that, it's not as much as you would think.

因此，從競爭力方面來看，我認為我們實際上仍然保持著每單位金額的大致相同，而且從這個角度來看，我們並沒有看到任何成長。所以，其實只有這三個因素。從收入影響來看，它並不像你想像的那麼多。

I think, overall, next year, I would say that increase in key money only has about a $5 million to $6 million dollar impact on fees next year because that key money is amortized over the life of the contract. The contracts tend to be very long, and therefore, the impact in the individual year is not very significant.

我認為，總體而言，明年，我會說頂錢的增加只會對明年的費用產生約 500 萬至 600 萬美元的影響，因為這些頂錢是在合約有效期內攤銷的。由於合約期限通常很長，因此，對單一年份的影響並不是很大。

I'll go ahead and take the margin question in the Americas as well. Very comfortable with what we're doing in the Americas. We're investing in the Americas. We sat at like roughly 82%. We were at the high, I think in 2004, we were at roughly 84%. We still feel like the America's margin continued to move up. We're certainly making some impact.

我將繼續討論美洲的利潤問題。我們對在美洲所做的事情非常滿意。我們正在美洲投資。我們坐的大概是 82%。我們的比例最高，我記得在 2004 年，大約是 84%。我們仍然感覺到美國的優勢在繼續上升。我們確實產生了一些影響。

We're definitely making some investments there to continue growth growing, the openings tended to be a bit more back ended, loaded, so you had the system size growth come in, which gives you a full year number, but the fees didn't have the full year impact. And so we would expect those to come in. I'll pause and take -- do you want to take the next question?

我們肯定會在那裡進行一些投資以繼續增長，開業往往更加後端化，負載更高，因此系統規模會有所增長，這會給你一個全年的數字，但費用不會對全年產生影響。因此我們期待這些能夠實現。我暫停一下，你想回答下一個問題嗎？

Yeah, let me just also, no, we're confident in the outlook for our total capital guidance of $350 million. But within that, the key money is driven by the factors that Michael mentioned, luxury lifestyle, conversions, not really doing more key money per key or key money per deal, but it's the mix of deals. And that's good for our mix of fees, higher fees per key and good for accelerating fees into the business because those conversions open more quickly. So, we plan to continue that and it's part of the mix that we're growing.

是的，我還要說一下，我們對 3.5 億美元的總資本指引前景充滿信心。但在這其中，頂錢是由麥可提到的因素驅動的，奢華的生活方式、轉換率，實際上並不是每把鑰匙或每筆交易的頂錢都多，而是交易的組合。這對我們的費用組合、每把鑰匙費用的提高有好處，也有利於加速費用進入業務，因為這些轉換開啟得更快。因此，我們計劃繼續這樣做，這是我們正在發展的業務的一部分。

On the Americas beyond the fee margin, I'd emphasize that we had 60% more openings, we had 13% more ground breaks, we had 9% more applications. So, our brands are really on the front foot. Garner, which we launched a little over a year ago, almost 120 hotels opened pipeline around the world, strong signings in the Americas and it's going to now bring openings in because they're conversion openings. So, we think that's going to bring fees in and clearly help the margin.

在美洲，除了費用差距以外，我想強調的是，我們的空缺職位增加了 60%，破土動工增加了 13%，申請人數增加了 9%。因此，我們的品牌確實處於領先地位。我們在一年多前成立的加納酒店集團 (Garner) 在全球有近 120 家酒店正在籌備中，在美洲地區簽約了多家酒店，現在它將引入新酒店，因為它們是轉換型酒店。因此，我們認為這將帶來費用並明顯有助於提高利潤。

Let me talk about China. I was -- Michael and I were actually there about 3 weeks ago with our team, spent a week there with our teams, talked about 100 owners. I'm not kidding, Jamie, literally 100 owners visited our properties, talked to our development team. We had a great year of signings in China last year. I mean, you can look at the quarter by quarter, but we had nearly 30,000 signings, record number of hotel signings, record number of hotel openings. I was just on the call with our China team yesterday for a monthly review, and they're seeing the same continue into 2025. Very optimistic about it.

先說中國吧。我——邁克爾和我實際上大約三週前和我們的團隊一起在那裡呆了一個星期，與 100 位業主進行了交談。我不是開玩笑，傑米，確實有 100 位業主參觀了我們的房產，並與我們的開發團隊進行了交談。去年我們在中國的簽約業績十分出色。我的意思是，你可以逐個季度地看一下，但我們有近 30,000 個簽約量，創下了酒店簽約量和酒店開業數量的記錄。我昨天剛與我們的中國團隊進行了月度審查，他們發現同樣的情況將持續到 2025 年。非常樂觀地看待它。

So, it was a very strong Q2 last year, and I don't know, sometimes the deals land where they land when you're talking about big transactions, working with our owners there, but every single one of the owners that I met with to the person is enthusiastic about growing with ISG and felt pretty good. I know that some other sectors, some other industries in China aren't doing as well like residential real estate, travel and tourism and ISG brands are doing quite well. So, there's nothing really to look at in the quarter over quarter. We think '25 is going to be another strong year of signings and openings in China. Confident in the high-single digit net unit growth in China for years to come.

因此，去年第二季度的表現非常強勁，我不知道，有時當你談論大交易時，交易會在他們想要的地方落地，與我們的所有者在那裡合作，但我見過的每一位所有者都對與 ISG 一起成長充滿熱情，感覺非常好。我知道中國的其他一些領域、行業表現不太好，例如住宅房地產、旅行和旅遊業，但 ISG 品牌表現相當不錯。因此，季度環比增長確實沒有什麼可看的。我們認為，2025年將是中國簽約和開業活動又一個強勁的一年。對未來幾年中國市場的淨銷量將保持高個位數成長充滿信心。

Not just given the fundamentals, but given our position in China, we inaugurated our 800th hotel when I was there. We have 550 under development. We introduced our third Essentials and Suites brands, Atwell Suites, which where we've already signed a few deals for 2025, and we expect more. And when you look at it, out of our 6 Essentials and Suites brands, we only had 2 in China, Holiday Inn Express, so there's more room for us to expand the map and grow even further.

不僅考慮到基本面，而且考慮到我們在中國的地位，我在中國時我們剛開設了第 800 家酒店。我們正在開發 550 個。我們推出了第三個 Essentials and Suites 品牌 Atwell Suites，我們已經與該品牌簽署了幾項 2025 年的協議，並且我們期待有更多協議。你可以想像，在我們的 6 個 Essentials 和 Suites 品牌中，只有 2 個在中國，那就是智選假日酒店，所以我們還有更大的空間來拓展版圖並進一步發展。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Vicky Stern, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的維姬·史特恩。

Just firstly wanted to circle back on the key money question. Maybe stepping away from your specific guidance and the components you pull out there that are driving that higher next year. Just more broadly in the industry, I think there seems to be a bit of anxiety. But ultimately, things are getting a bit more costly, a bit more competitive when it comes to key money.

我首先想重新討論押金的問題。或許會放棄你所製定的具體指導方針和推動明年價格上漲的因素。就更廣泛的行業而言，我認為似乎存在一些焦慮。但最終，當涉及禮金時，成本會變得更高，競爭也會變得更激烈。

Just curious about the trends you're seeing, I think Marriott was talking about even in the low end now in the US, there's a bit more requirement for key money. Just what are you seeing out there, even if that's not specifically what's driving your key money higher next year.

我只是好奇您所看到的趨勢，我認為萬豪所談論的即使是現在美國的低端酒店，對禮金的要求也會更高一些。您到底看到了什麼，即使這並不是明年推動您的關鍵資金增加的具體因素。

Second one's on fee growth. Marriott are also calling out one of the reasons for their lower fee growth guide next year being that lower expected IMF coming through in China. So just curious sort of your perspective, I guess, firstly on the RevPAR outlet for China and then your view on IMFs and whether those might be lower next year or '25 versus, 24 for IHG.

第二個是關於費用成長。萬豪也指出，其明年費用成長預期下調的原因之一是，預計中國 IMF 收入將下降。所以我很好奇你的看法，首先是關於中國的 RevPAR，然後是對 IMF 的看法，以及明年或 2025 年 IHG 的 RevPAR 是否會更低，而 IHG 為 24 年。

And then just lastly, on the broader RevPAR outlooks, I guess your US peers are guiding between 2% to 3% and 2% to 4%, your key US peers for RevPAR in '25. What are are you thinking things might land and if you can sort of give us a bit of a geographical lens on that. Thanks.

最後，關於更廣泛的 RevPAR 前景，我猜您的美國同行預計 25 年 RevPAR 的成長速度將在 2% 至 3% 和 2% 至 4% 之間。您認為事情可能會如何發展？謝謝。

Yeah, excellent. Good to hear from you, Vicky. Of course, I was just in the US a couple of weeks ago at the Alice conference. Of course, as you know, I spend a lot of time back and forth between here and there.

是的，非常好。很高興收到你的來信，Vicky。當然，幾週前我才剛去美國參加了 Alice 會議。當然，如你所知，我花了很多時間往返這兩地。

We're not seeing that trend in our mainstream brands and our Essentials and Suites of, I mentioned Garner earlier. We haven't been doing key money for Garner whatsoever in the US and don't see a higher incidence of it in our Essentials and Suites brand. The market's always been very competitive, that's for sure.

我們在主流品牌以及Essentials和Suites中都沒有看到這種趨勢，我之前提到過Garner。我們在美國沒有為 Garner 提供任何禮金，並且在我們的 Essentials 和 Suites 品牌中也沒有發現這種現像有較高的發生率。市場競爭一直非常激烈，這是肯定的。

And I don't know that it's different. Now, without really focusing on any specific companies, but If you're trying to enter a segment that you're not in or strong in, maybe you feel the need to participate differently or to create different incentives, but we are well established in the segments that we compete in Essentials and Suites in the North America and the US, and don't feel they need to do any more.

我不知道這有什麼不同。現在，我們並不真正專注於任何特定的公司，但如果你想進入一個你不擅長或不擅長的領域，也許你會覺得需要以不同的方式參與或創造不同的激勵措施，但我們在北美和美國的 Essentials 和 Suites 競爭領域已經站穩了腳跟，並認為他們不需要再做任何事了。

Our signings make progress, our openings make progress, our groundbreaks and applications make progress without really having to commit more in key money. Where we're making not bigger commitments per key or per hotel, but it's by sector is in luxury, lifestyle and premium, and that has been our part of our strategy from the beginning and we're persisting with it also in the US where we had, let's just say, not the same distribution of luxury, lifestyle and premium made great gains in that, opening some really halo properties including Regent Santa Monica, new Intercontinental in Seattle, and so forth.

我們的簽約取得了進展，我們的開業取得了進展，我們的破土動工和應用取得了進展，而實際上我們無需投入更多的關鍵資金。我們並沒有對每間酒店或每間房間做出更大的承諾，而是按奢華、生活方式和高端酒店類別進行佈局，這從一開始就是我們戰略的一部分，我們也在美國堅持這一戰略，在美國，我們的奢華、生活方式和高端酒店的分佈並不相同，我們在那裡取得了巨大的收益，開設了一些真正光彩奪酒店，包括聖莫尼卡麗晶酒店、新洲際酒店等等。

And so those pay higher fees and pay for themselves, and we're quite pleased with that. So we're not seeing the same trend that others, but maybe it's because of where they're participating today and where they're seeking to participate tomorrow.

因此，他們支付更高的費用並收回成本，我們對此感到非常滿意。因此，我們看到的趨勢與其他人不同，但也許是因為他們今天參與的地方和他們明天尋求參與的地方。

In terms of China, in general, and I'll turn over to Michael about the IMFs. We see a progression of our business in China. If you look at our RevPAR, in the second half of the year versus the first half of the year, let's compare it to 2019, which was a baseline year. It was about a 4 to 5 point improvement in the second half of the year or the first half of the year and occupancy was basically flat for us.

就中國整體情況而言，我將把有關國際貨幣基金組織的議題交給麥可。我們看到我們的業務在中國正在取得進展。如果您查看我們下半年的 RevPAR 與上半年的對比，我們可以將其與 2019 年（作為基準年）進行比較。相較於今年下半年或上半年，入住率提高了約 4 至 5 個百分點，而入住率基本持平。

And yes, rate came down, but a lot of that rate was really influenced by the strong outbound travel to Asia Pacific, and that's continued in the first half of the year, and we benefit from that, frankly.

是的，費率確實下降了，但很大一部分費率確實受到了亞太地區出境遊強勁的影響，而且這種趨勢在今年上半年也持續了下去，坦白說，我們從中受益。

Chinese New Year just concluded. All the data show record travel domestically, but also even more travel to nearby Asian markets like Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, etc. So, and we benefit from those hotels there, especially the IMFs, as you saw in our figures last year.

農曆新年剛結束。所有數據都顯示國內旅遊人數創下了歷史新高，但前往日本、越南、韓國、印尼、泰國等附近亞洲市場的旅遊人數也更多。

So, I said last year that my sense was that China was bottoming out, digesting the overbuilding in residential real estate. That's clearly the sense we have now. So, we think clearly this year there's going to be a better year for RevPAR in China than it was last year. But Michael, why don't you get into the IMFs more particularly>

所以，我去年說過，我的感覺是中國正在觸底，消化住宅房地產的過度建設。這顯然是我們現在的認識。因此，我們顯然認為，今年中國的 RevPAR 將比去年更好。但是邁克爾，為什麼不更詳細地談談國際貨幣基金組織呢？

Yeah, I mean, I think it kind of aligns with what Elie's saying. If you look at where we fit in 2024, we did $178 million in IMFs, obviously much smaller than the company you mentioned there, we're definitely more of a franchise business. But if you look at that outbound travel out of China, actually when you look at kind of those areas around EMEAA, EMEAA actually was up %17 million in IMFs in the whole region, but a lot of that went into that Southeast Asia, and we do have managed hotels there where we've been able to more than offset the decline of roughly $7 million of IMFs in Greater China.

是的，我的意思是，我認為這與 Elie 所說的一致。如果你看看我們在 2024 年的規模，我們在 IMF 上的投資額為 1.78 億美元，顯然比你提到的公司小得多，我們絕對更像是一家特許經營企業。但如果您看一下中國的出境遊，實際上當您查看 EMEAA 周圍的區域時，EMEAA 在整個地區的 IMF 實際上增長了 1700 萬美元，但其中很大一部分流向了東南亞，我們在那裡管理了酒店，足以彌補大中華區約 700 萬美元 IMF 的下降。

And as Ellie mentioned as we kind of started in January, the Chinese were traveling, and they were traveling really well as part of Chinese New Year. In fact, the extended Chinese New Year helped actually that outbound travel, and we saw really strong RevPAR growth in January. Now, we need to see how it progresses, but as Ellie said, we feel comfortable about where China's going and where it's moving. So from an IMF perspective, we're not worried about going backwards in terms of fee growth there. We would still see that continuing to grow.

正如艾莉所提到的，從一月開始，中國人就開始外出旅遊，而且由於農曆新年的緣故，他們的旅遊情況非常好。事實上，延長的農曆新年確實促進了出境遊，我們在一月份看到了非常強勁的 RevPAR 成長。現在，我們需要觀察其進展情況，但正如艾莉所說，我們對中國的發展方向和動向感到放心。因此，從國際貨幣基金組織的角度來看，我們並不擔心那裡的費用成長會倒退。我們仍會看到其持續成長。

Yeah, and Vicky, I think your last question was US RevPAR compared to what's out there from others. And analysts, I think that you look at the projections from SDR and others, they are in the high ones for this year, for 2025.

是的，Vicky，我認為你的最後一個問題是關於美國的 RevPAR 與其他國家相比的情況。分析師們，我認為，看看 SDR 和其他機構的預測，他們對今年和 2025 年的預測都處於較高水平。

Frankly, we think 2025 can be as good in the US or better. We obviously had a very strong fourth quarter in the US at 4.1, and we're pleased to see the acceleration. And so, we don't give guidance, but if you look at the fundamentals that drive the US travel business, got good GDP in Q4, jobs report in January showed nearly record employment.

坦白說，我們認為 2025 年美國的表現會和現在一樣好，甚至更好。顯然，我們在美國第四季的表現非常強勁，達到 4.1，我們很高興看到這一加速。因此，我們不提供指導，但如果你看看推動美國旅遊業發展的基本面，第四季度的 GDP 表現良好，1 月份的就業報告顯示就業率幾乎創下了歷史新高。

Unemployment coming down. Financial markets are strong. Consumer confidence is good. Supply isn't high in going into 2025. And so, the fundamentals for another good year of RevPAR growth in the US are there. And Michael can touch on it in some detail, but based on January and February, what we're seeing is at or ahead of what we expected.

失業率下降。金融市場強勁。消費者信心良好。到 2025 年，供應量不會很高。因此，美國 RevPAR 有望再創輝煌一年。麥可可以詳細談這一點，但根據一月和二月的情況，我們看到的情況達到或超出了我們的預期。

Jaina Mistry, Jefferies.

傑安娜‧米斯特里 (Jaina Mistry)、傑弗里斯 (Jefferies)。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. 3 as well, if I may. The first one is another, unfortunately, on key money. I mean, you've hopefully given the breakdown by chain scale and segments, is this key money more for US phenomenon, or do you deploy it in luxury and lifestyle and premium in Asia and Europe as well to the same extent? And going forward, do you expect key money to remain at $200 million to @250 million level in '26 and '27?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話，3 也一樣。不幸的是，第一個是有關押金的另一個問題。我的意思是，您希望根據連鎖規模和細分市場進行細分，這些關鍵資金是否更多地用於美國現象，還是您在亞洲和歐洲的奢侈品、生活方式和高端領域也同樣部署它？展望未來，您是否預計 26 年和 27 年關鍵資金將維持在 2 億至 2.5 億美元的水平？

And second question is on the ruby acquisition. Congratulations. Do you expect Ruby to be earnings accretive in 2025?

第二個問題是關於紅寶石的收購。恭喜。您預計 Ruby 將在 2025 年實現獲利成長嗎？

And then just lastly on free cash flow, I wondered what your level of confidence is in achieving a 100% free cash flow this year, given that you met it last year in 2024 with the health of credit card in flows, I guess, key money is expected to remain elevated in 205 as well. So, your thoughts there would be very helpful.

最後關於自由現金流，我想知道您對今年實現 100% 自由現金流的信心程度如何，考慮到您去年在 2024 年憑藉信用卡流入的健康狀況實現了這一目標，我猜，預計關鍵資金在 205 年也將保持高位。因此，您的想法將會非常有幫助。

Okay. So in terms of where we deploy key mine, it's really no different than than what it's always been. In the US, say North the Americas, it's in premium luxury lifestyle, not really in Essentials and Suites where we're biggest. No different than it's been before, except I'll repeat that our mix of deals and openings has purposely strategically moved further into premium luxury lifestyle. That's why we added voco, Vignette, Regents, Six Senses. We've been growing Kimpton and we're going to continue to do that.

好的。因此，就我們部署關鍵礦井的位置而言，實際上與以往沒有什麼不同。在美國，比如說北美，我們最大的業務是高端奢華生活方式，而不是 Essentials 和 Suites。與以前沒有什麼不同，只是我要重複一遍，我們的交易和開業組合有意策略性地進一步轉向高端奢華生活方式。這就是我們添加 voco、Vignette、Regents、Six Senses 的原因。我們一直在發展 Kimpton，並且我們將繼續這樣做。

And then the conversion mix, which is now 50% of deals open and signed, and that moves up key money but also moves up fees. We're happy to pay the key money earlier because the hotel's opening earlier versus pay 3 years from now on a new build, right? And there's a lower risk of, say, incompletion of a project when it's a conversion versus a new build. We like them both, but statistically, everyone will tell you there's a higher probability of opening with a conversion than there is a new build signing because years go on and things could happen.

然後是轉換組合，現在已完成和簽署的交易佔比為 50%，這不僅提高了關鍵資金，還提高了費用。我們很樂意提前支付禮金，因為酒店開業較早，而不是三年後再支付新建的費用，對嗎？與新建案相比，改建工程未完工的風險較低。我們都喜歡它們，但從統計數據來看，每個人都會告訴你，轉換開業比新建簽約的可能性更高，因為隨著時間的推移，事情可能會發生。

As you move to the rest of the world, there's no different. In Europe, we've done key money before, especially when it's urban destinations or locations, and it continues no more, no less than before. Clearly, when you get a package like the NOVUM deal, 119 total properties. And by the way, we've signed another 5 deals with NOVUM since then, which shows the growth and value of that agreement that we, everybody would do an amount of key money for that, and we did.

當你移居到世界其他地方時，情況並沒有什麼不同。在歐洲，我們以前也收取過禮金，尤其是在城市目的地或地點，現在這種情況仍然沒有改變，也沒有減少。顯然，當您獲得像 NOVUM 交易這樣的套餐時，總共有 119 個房產。順便說一句，從那時起，我們又與 NOVUM 簽署了另外 5 項協議，這表明了該協議的增長和價值，我們每個人都會為此投入一定數額的關鍵資金，我們也確實這樣做了。

As you move east from there, in the Middle East, for luxury lifestyle, again, not for mainstream and not for Essentials and Suites, same thing in Southeast Asia. And in China, actually, we don't do key money in any category and haven't, just the structure of the market. So, the structure of the market hasn't changed.

當你從那裡向東遷移到中東時，你會追求奢華的生活方式，但同樣，你不追求主流，也不追求基本生活和套房，東南亞的情況也是如此。而在中國，實際上我們並沒有在任何類別上投入關鍵資金，這只是市場的結構。所以，市場結構沒有改變。

We are actually pleased that we're signing more hotels and opening more hotels. Our signings are up 3% year over year. Our openings are up 23% year over year. And if that's coming in the categories where there is too many like premium, luxury and lifestyle, well, that's fine because that's been part of our strategy.

事實上，我們很高興簽約了更多的酒店並開設了更多的酒店。我們的簽約量年增了3%。我們的開業人數較去年同期成長了23%。如果高端、奢華和生活方式等類別中出現了太多這樣的產品，那也沒關係，因為這是我們策略的一部分。

And so, we've guided to $200 million or more in key money for this year and for the next couple of years. I think it's going to then moderate back down as we get through the digestion of some really halo projects that are opening over the next couple of years, including the one that completed its opening last year, the Regent Santa Monica. And we have a few of those really halo projects that are establishing our brands in key markets.

因此，我們預計今年和未來幾年的關鍵資金將達到 2 億美元或更多。我認為，隨著我們消化掉未來幾年將開放的一些真正光環十足的項目，包括去年竣工開放的聖莫尼卡麗晶酒店，這一數字將會逐漸回落。我們有幾個真正具有光輝意義的項目正在關鍵市場建立我們的品牌。

But I think that the amounts are driven by strategy. They're within our total capital guidance. Don't change or affect our algorithm. In fact, we -- when we put out our growth algorithm and the statistics that we shared with you last year, this time, that included in our view, our knowledge and view already where key money was going to be headed for the medium to long term, driven by our growth, driven by our expansion in the mix of our portfolio on Ruby.

但我認為數量是由策略決定的。它們都在我們的總資本指引範圍內。不要改變或影響我們的演算法。事實上，當我們推出我們的成長演算法和我們去年與你們分享的統計數據時，這一次，我們已經將我們的觀點、我們的知識和觀點納入了中長期關鍵資金的流向，這將由我們的成長驅動，由我們在 Ruby 上的投資組合擴張驅動。

Look, we're very excited about Ruby, just really hits the spot. In an area we've been looking, you've heard me talk previously about urban micro and people ask me, where would you look? I've mentioned urban micro. It's because we've been looking in that space and really preferring to acquire something so we can scale up much more quickly.

瞧，我們對 Ruby 感到非常興奮，它確實恰到好處。在我們一直關注的領域，您可能已經聽過我談論城市微觀結構，人們會問我，您會關注哪裡？我提到過城市微型。這是因為我們一直在尋找那個領域並且真正希望獲得一些東西，以便我們可以更快地擴大規模。

We've launched very successfully in Essentials and Suites as you've seen with Garner and Atwell, but in premium and above, we've generally bought and scaled very successfully. So, this brand with 30 hotels open and popular, in fact, it's 31 because just last week, they signed a great property downtown Copenhagen, and there's more coming. We can see ourselves scaling this thing to 120 in 5 years, 250 in 10 years, and our track record with other brands shows that this is extremely feasible.

正如您在 Garner 和 Atwell 中看到的，我們在 Essentials 和 Suites 中非常成功地推出了產品，但在高級版及以上版本中，我們通常都非常成功地購買和擴展產品。這個品牌目前有 30 家酒店開業，而且很受歡迎。我們可以預見到 5 年內這個數字將擴大到 120，10 年內將擴大到 250，我們與其他品牌的合作記錄表明，這是非常可行的。

So in 2025, what we've said in our in our results presentation, there's going to be $10 million of integration costs that are within our projections and we -- now, don't expect to have a profit reported from that brand in of itself. It doesn't really move our projections much at all, given its size and scale. And then in 2026, you're going to start to see some fee accretion.

因此，在 2025 年，正如我們在業績報告中所說，整合成本將達到 1000 萬美元，這在我們的預測範圍內，而且我們現在並不指望該品牌本身就能實現盈利。考慮到它的規模和範圍，它實際上並沒有對我們的預測產生太大影響。然後在 2026 年，你將開始看到一些費用的增加。

But look, this is a very attractive multiple. It was an off-market transaction. In 2028, when the open hotels stabilized, and many of them are really new, were in mid-teens multiple on the acquisition, and by 2030, we're a single digit like sub 8 multiple. So, this is an attractive acquisition at an attractive price with a lot of growth potential for us.

但你看，這是一個非常有吸引力的倍數。這是一場場外交易。2028 年，當開業酒店數量穩定下來時，其中許多都是新酒店，收購價格在 15 到 20 倍之間，而到 2030 年，收購價格將達到個位數，例如 8 倍以下。因此，這是一次價格誘人的收購，對我們來說具有很大的成長潛力。

Thanks, and I'll just pick up the free cash flow question, Jaina, and I think if you look at our free cash flow and how it moved this year, we mentioned that the half year that a large portion of the decrease at the half year was related to the spend down of the system fund surplus. And of course, we've had a bit more of key money in 2024 come in. And then that was offset by about $100 million of the signing bonus that came in in 2024 from our partners on that across various partners.

謝謝，我只想回答自由現金流的問題，Jaina，我想如果你看看我們的自由現金流以及它今年的走勢，我們提到半年內很大一部分的減少與系統基金盈餘的支出減少有關。當然，我們在 2024 年獲得了更多的關鍵資金。然後，這筆錢被我們在 2024 年從各個合作夥伴那裡獲得的約 1 億美元簽約獎金所抵消。

Now as we look at 2025, we feel very confident in getting back to that 100% when we won't have the spin down of the system fund surplus to go through again. The key money is normalizing, that step up is normalized. And then we also have another $37 billion that we received in January actually coming from the co-brand credit card deal across all the partners. So, I think we feel very comfortable as we move into the year and looking at where things sit that we would get back and get around 100% conversion as we said through our growth algorithm.

現在，展望 2025 年，我們非常有信心能夠回到 100% 的水平，屆時我們將不再需要經歷系統基金盈餘下滑的局面。關鍵資金正在正常化，這一步正在正常化。此外，我們還在 1 月獲得了另外 370 億美元，這實際上來自於所有合作夥伴的聯名信用卡交易。因此，我認為，隨著我們進入新的一年，我們感到非常放心，我們會回顧現狀，並實現透過成長演算法得到的 100％ 左右的轉換率。

Muneeba Kayani, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Muneeba Kayani。

First question around net system growth, your pipeline 33%, I think in the video you said you're targeting around 4% net system growth. How are you thinking about that and could we see that kind of increasing to, say, a higher level of 5% to 6%, is the first question.

第一個問題關於淨系統成長，您的管道為 33%，我記得在影片中您說過您的目標是實現 4% 左右的淨系統成長。您是如何看待這個問題的？

And then secondly, just on the cash return, the buyback is higher, and you have 10% dividend growth, your leverage is at 2.3%, which is below your target range. So, how should we think about that buyback number growing and that dividend growing in the medium term?

其次，僅就現金回報而言，回購率較高，且股利成長率為 10%，槓桿率為 2.3%，低於目標範圍。那麼，我們該如何看待中期回購數量的成長和股利的成長呢？

And then thirdly, on Ruby, you've talked about your expansion, I think, in the US and Asia as well, just in terms of like the founder, what is the involvement going forward, and can you talk a bit about the incentive program you have there? Thank you.

第三，關於 Ruby，我想您也談到了在美國和亞洲的擴張，就創始人而言，未來的參與情況如何，您能談談您在那裡的激勵計劃嗎？謝謝。

Sure. Thank you, Muneeba. I'll take the first one, the last one, turn over the share buyback to Michael.

當然。謝謝你，Muneeba。我將承擔第一個任務，也是最後一個任務，將股票回購移交給麥可。

We're very pleased with our net system growth in 2024 and the trajectory. It's our third consecutive year of increasing signings, openings, and its system growth, and we're confident in 4 or more in 2025. We don't give specific guidance, but we're comfortable in that or more.

我們對 2024 年的淨系統成長和發展軌跡非常滿意。這是我們連續第三年增加簽約量、開業量和系統成長，我們有信心到 2025 年將達到 4 個或更多。我們沒有給出具體的指導，但我們對此或更多感到滿意。

And so we think that the power of the brands that we've been developing, the ones that we're launching and acquiring and the strength of our signings, puts us in a position to continue to build that growth and keep reaching higher. Look, we'd love to always do more, but you've heard me also say that we want to do it thoughtfully. We want to grow profitably. We want keys with fees.

因此，我們認為，我們一直在開發的品牌、我們正在推出和收購的品牌以及我們簽約的品牌的力量，使我們能夠繼續保持這種成長，並不斷達到更高的水平。你看，我們總是願意做更多的事情，但你也聽我說過，我們想深思熟慮地去做這件事。我們希望實現獲利成長。我們需要付費才能獲得鑰匙。

And so, whether we're doing partnerships or we're doing new deals, whether we're expanding into new markets, we're thinking of the whole algorithm. How does that net system growth, drive RevPAR, which drives fees that drive margin growth that take us down to growth in EBIT and EPS, and we're delivering on that. So, we're delivering at the high end of our expectation in 2024, and we're confident doing that in '25 with the system growth we got today, and we think we can do better too.

因此，無論我們是在建立合作夥伴關係還是進行新交易，無論我們是在拓展新市場，我們都在考慮整個演算法。淨系統成長如何推動 RevPAR，進而推動費用成長，推動利潤率成長，從而實現 EBIT 和 EPS 的成長，我們正在實現這一目標。因此，我們在 2024 年實現了預期的最高水平，並且憑藉我們今天的系統增長，我們有信心在 2025 年實現這一目標，而且我們認為我們也可以做得更好。

Which kind of leads me to Ruby because we -- it's another tool in our arsenal to grow system in a space that we've been looking at hard, but we have not been participating. We're an urban lifestyle with Kimpton, with Indigo, with voco, Vignette. But we wanted this urban micro, premium space. We think it's just a long-term structural trend across most of our markets so we're -- yes, we're definitely going to take it outside of Europe where it's well established already.

這讓我想到了 Ruby，因為這是我們武器庫中的另一個工具，可以幫助我們在一個我們一直在努力關注但尚未參與的領域中發展系統。我們與 Kimpton、Indigo、voco、Vignette 共同打造都會生活方式。但我們想要的是這種城市微型優質空間。我們認為這只是我們大多數市場中的長期結構性趨勢，所以——是的，我們肯定會將它帶到歐洲以外，因為它在那裡已經很成熟了。

First, we're going to scale it up much more in Europe. And then we're going to go first to the US, and we said we'd be there by the end of the year, ready for development and then start going east from there. I'll tell you our development teams around the world and some of our owners have been pushing us to participate in the space. They're eagerly waiting for us to bring Ruby forward and internationalize it for them.

首先，我們將在歐洲進一步擴大規模。然後我們首先要去美國，我們說過我們會在今年年底到達那裡，做好開發準備，然後從那裡開始向東進。我會告訴你們我們在世界各地的開發團隊和一些業主一直在推動我們參與這個領域。他們熱切地等待我們幫助他們推動 Ruby 的發展並實現國際化。

And you've seen us be successful with internationalizing brands that we acquire. When we acquired Regent and Six Senses, since then, we've more than doubled the pipeline that we got, and we've made it extremely successful globally. Kimpton's now 140 hotels open and pipeline around the world and it was just a domestic brand when we acquired it. So, we kind of know how to do this. We may not be smart at many things, but this is something that I think we know how to do.

您已經看到我們成功實現所收購品牌的國際化。自從我們收購麗晶酒店和六善酒店以來，我們的管道數量增加了一倍多，並在全球範圍內取得了巨大的成功。Kimpton 目前在全球擁有 140 家開業和籌備中的酒店，而我們收購它時它還只是一個國內品牌。所以，我們知道如何做到這一點。我們可能在很多事情上並不聰明，但我認為我們知道如何做這件事。

The founder, and he's not -- he's the founder and principal, but not the only investor. He's got a handful of large institutional investors from Europe that are at the table with him. They're going to remain owning the properties but developing more properties, which is a built-in engine for us of growth in Europe and they're highly committed to do it. And we built an incentive plan for them to do it that, frankly, is ambitious, but the more they achieve against it, the better it is for us. It's actually lowers the overall multiple, lowers the cost for the next property, the next room so what's --

創辦人，他不是——他是創辦人和負責人，但不是唯一的投資者。與他一同談判的還有來自歐洲的幾家大型機構投資者。他們將繼續擁有這些地產，但會開發更多的房地產，這是我們在歐洲成長的內在引擎，他們非常致力於這樣做。我們為他們制定了一項激勵計劃，坦白說，這項計劃雄心勃勃，但他們取得的成就越多，對我們就越有利。它實際上降低了整體倍數，降低了下一處房產、下一間房間的成本，那麼--

We're confident in growing the brand ourselves as we've done with many other brands by franchising it to other capable owners, but we're confident they will achieve a substantial level of growth, not sure exactly where on that ambition they'll be, but the more the better for us. And I was actually with them Friday night after finalizing the transaction. They're very good at what they do. They've had a very strong compounded growth rate since they launched their brand in 2013 in the 40%. And they've got a very good pipeline of new transactions coming, so all this will be a creep.

我們有信心自己發展這個品牌，就像我們透過將品牌特許經營給其他有能力的所有者來發展許多其他品牌一樣，但我們有信心他們將實現大幅增長，雖然不確定他們究竟會達到什麼目標，但對我們來說越多越好。交易完成後，我實際上是在周五晚上和他們在一起的。他們非常擅長他們所做的事情。自 2013 年推出自己的品牌以來，他們的複合成長率一直非常強勁，達到 40%。而且他們已經有了非常好的新交易管道，所以這一切都會令人感到驚喜。

Great. And on the cash return, I think, Elie and I have been very clear since we came in that we were going to return cash to shareholders. And if you look at what we've done in 2022, we did $500 million in 2023, we did $750 million 2024, $800 million. Now, we've announced a $900 million buyback and so, we've talked about being consistent with that and continuing to deliver that, and we plan on doing that in the future.

偉大的。關於現金回報，我認為，自從我們加入以來，艾利和我就已經非常明確地表示，我們將向股東返還現金。如果你看看我們在 2022 年所取得的成就，你會發現 2023 年我們賺了 5 億美元，2024 年賺了 7.5 億美元，2024 年賺了 8 億美元。現在，我們已經宣布了 9 億美元的回購計劃，因此，我們已經討論過堅持這一目標並繼續實現這一目標，我們計劃在未來繼續這樣做。

And actually, if you talk about the future and you just look at where consensus sits today. Consensus sits today at about $1 billion $237 million; we think that's a little low right now because not all analysts have put in the effect of the co-brand credit card. In fact, I was talking with some of the analysts today that are around 1,270. I think that's about right in what we think. And if you just look at kind of where that would take you based on our growth algorithm, you're at 1,270, and if you look at the interest changes that we've talked about all in, you're probably looking at earnings per share growth in the 17% range.

實際上，如果你談論未來，你只要看看今天的共識就好了。今天的共識是約 12.37 億美元；我們認為目前這個估值有點低，因為並不是所有的分析師都考慮了聯名信用卡的影響。事實上，我今天正在與一些分析師交談，他們的人數約為 1,270 人。我想我們的想法是正確的。如果您只是根據我們的成長演算法看一下這會為您帶來什麼，那麼您目前處於 1,270 水平，如果您看一下我們所討論的全部利率變化，您可能會看到每股收益成長率在 17% 左右。

We've told you today that we feel comfortable in the cash conversion and getting back to 100%. Our net debt to EBITDA at the end of the year would be, at this year was 2.3% with the Ruby acquisition and the $900 million share buyback we're talking about it being at the kind of low end of our target range. So if you take all that together, I think you could surmise that it'd be another year where we would continue to do share buybacks, assuming everything came in and the board decided that's what they wanted to do, but we feel confident in that.

我們今天告訴你們，我們對現金轉換率恢復到 100% 感到滿意。我們今年底的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.3%，包括 Ruby 收購和 9 億美元的股票回購，我們認為這個比率處於目標範圍的低端。因此，如果把所有這些因素綜合起來，我想你可以推測，這將是我們繼續進行股票回購的又一年，假設所有事情都已到位並且董事會決定這是他們想要做的事情，但我們對此充滿信心。

And if you look at that, that's actually ahead of our mid to long term growth algorithm. So I think we feel really strong, I feel good about coming into this year and what we potentially can deliver.

如果你看一下，你會發現這實際上領先於我們的中長期成長演算法。所以我認為我們感覺真的很強大，我對今年以及我們可能取得的成果感到滿意。

Jaafar Mestari.

賈法爾·梅斯塔里。

Firstly, on the adverse FX impact, $16 million for the group, could you maybe roughly break that down by region. WQe tend to think of America as mostly USD, but was there a material headwind there on the smaller currencies, and then whether it was a positive on central costs because a lot of them are still sterling, please.

首先，關於外匯造成的不利影響，集團損失達 1,600 萬美元，您能否按地區大致細分一下。我們傾向於認為美國主要以美元計價，但對於較小貨幣而言是否存在實質性的阻力，以及這是否對中央成本產生積極影響，因為其中許多仍是英鎊。

And then just two related questions on your brand momentum on some of the newer brands. You've made some comments about Garner, Vignette, ramping up strongly, and medium term, where do you think they stabilize? If I take voco, probably your most successful organic launch as as a unit, is Vignette 0.3x of a a voco once it's fully ramped up, is it Garner 0.5.

然後我再問兩個與你們對一些新品牌的品牌動能相關的問題。您對 Garner、Vignette 的強勁成長發表了一些評論，您認為中期它們會穩定下來嗎？如果我以 voco 為例，這可能是您最成功的自然發布，一旦完全啟動，Vignette 就是 voco 的 0.3 倍，Garner 就是 0.5。

And just related to that, what about the slightly older, the EVEN, the HUALUXE, the avids? If I just look at the pipeline, it looks like they're plateauing. Would that be roughly your view as well, or do you think there's a second leg markets where you can still launch them or things you can do differently to reaccelerate these brands, please?

與此相關的是，稍微老一點的 EVEN、HUALUXE 和 avids 怎麼樣？如果我只看管道，看起來它們正處於穩定狀態。這也是您大致的看法嗎？

I'll leave the effects question to Michael. I'll talk about the fun stuff. I'll talk about the brands.

我將把效果問題留給邁克爾。我就講一些好玩的東西吧。我將談論品牌。

We're optimistic about the growth potential of all of our brands, and I'll take them sort of in order. You're right. I mean, Garner, we said would be 500 in 10 years, 2020. I mean, we're already nearly 120 open in pipeline in about a year or so, so we think we're well on track. And you know it went international much more quickly and broadly than I thought, it's in 6 and 7 countries and it's very likely to be in more countries soon. It's hitting that trend of a desire for conversions and quality mid-scale properties. I want to join a strong system. And our system is increasingly proving itself to be among the best in the industry.

我們對所有品牌的成長潛力都持樂觀態度，我將按順序介紹。你說得對。我的意思是，加納，我們說過 10 年後，也就是 2020 年，這個數字會達到 500。我的意思是，大約一年左右的時間裡，我們已經有近 120 個開放項目正在籌備中，所以我們認為我們已經走在了正確的道路上。你知道它的國際化速度比我想像的要快得多，範圍也更廣，它目前已覆蓋 6 到 7 個國家，而且很可能很快就會覆蓋更多國家。它滿足了人們對改建和優質中檔房產的需求趨勢。我想加入一個強大的體系。我們的系統正日益證明自己是業界最好的系統之一。

The -- when you go, I mean, voco and Vignette clearly because they're an upscale and upper upscale, they're targeted for smaller but still very good end state size, and they're on track. They're both exactly on track, although they launched either before pandemic or in the pandemic. voco is what, about 140 or so open under development around the world, and Vignette is on track between what's open on development.

當你去的時候，我的意思是，voco 和 Vignette 顯然是因為它們屬於高檔和超高檔，它們的目標是較小但仍然非常好的最終狀態規模，而且它們正走在正軌上。儘管它們都是在疫情之前或疫情期間推出的，但都完全按照計劃進行。 voco 是全球正在開發中的約 140 個開源項目，而 Vignette 也正在按計劃進行開發。

The further up you go in the chain, the smaller the target size as you go to upper upscale and luxury, but they're both on track to where we want, and you know they keep appearing in new markets. Vignette's now in Japan, it's now in China and we've got more coming. It's not just in the US and in Europe, it's Vignettes in the Middle East and voco is in dozens and dozens of countries, so the map is wide for them too.

在連鎖店中，你走得越遠，當你走向高檔和豪華酒店時，目標規模就越小，但它們都在朝著我們想要的方向前進，而且你知道它們會不斷出現在新的市場中。Vignette 現已在日本上映，現在也在中國上映，並且還會有更多作品上映。它不僅在美國和歐洲，Vignettes 還在中東和 voco 遍布數十個國家，因此它們的業務範圍也很廣泛。

Looking at Atwell Suites and avid are doing very well. Avid is over 70 open, over 140 in pipeline, and it's only in one country now. Well, I guess it's in Canada and Mexico, but it's only in one region. We haven't taken it to Asia, to Europe, to China.

看看 Atwell Suites 和 avid 都做得很好。Avid 有超過 70 個開放版本，超過 140 個正在籌備中，現在僅在一個國家開展業務。嗯，我猜它是在加拿大和墨西哥，但它只在一個地區。我們還沒有把它帶到亞洲、歐洲或中國。

But we took Atwells Suites to China and we think we have a long runway there and it's growing very well in the US. So, I mean, they're all on track. They have different trajectories based on where they are in the chain scale and the markets they participate in, but they're on track with the growth plans, and so then for Ruby, we have its own track it's not going to be vastly suburban or ex-urban tertiary cities. It's really key cities and maybe the next level, not so much resort, but maybe a few resorts.

但我們將 Atwells Suites 帶到了中國，我們認為我們在那裡有很長的路要走，而且它在美國發展得很好。所以，我的意思是，他們都在正軌上。根據他們在連鎖規模中所處的位置和他們參與的市場，他們有不同的發展軌跡，但他們都按照成長計畫前進，因此對 Ruby 來說，我們有自己的發展軌跡，它不會是廣闊的郊區或遠郊三級城市。這確實是重點城市，也許是下一個級別，雖然沒有太多的度假勝地，但也許有幾個度假勝地。

And therefore, the dimension that we see for it is 120 and 10 years, 250 in 20, and you know, we're starting with a very good base there too, so I'd say I'm excited about the power of all of them, but as you see us broaden that portfolio and then broadening geographically, you can see that we have many more avenues for growth. Even in 2024, we had dozens of instances where we took an existing brand but to a new market where it wasn't participating, and we still have many of those combinations done thoughtfully, done where the fees are right, where the profit's right, but with many more of these combinations to to exploit.

因此，我們看到的維度是 10 年內 120 年，20 年內 250 年，你知道，我們也從一個非常好的基礎開始，所以我會說我對它們所有的實力感到興奮，但是當你看到我們擴大投資組合併在地域上擴大時，你可以看到我們有更多的成長途徑。即使到了 2024 年，我們仍有數十個案例將現有品牌帶到了尚未參與的新市場，我們仍然經過深思熟慮地完成了許多這樣的組合，費用合適，利潤合適，但還有更多這樣的組合可供利用。

On the FX, yeah, I mean, it definitely had an impact this year. We were 10% in operating profit growth and then if you exclude the FX impact, it was 12%, so really solid growth, but it could have been even more except for the FX. If you look at that impact from the Americas, roughly of the $16 million, it was roughly $5 million. The EMEAA was $6 million, Greater China, $1 million, and then across our overheads around $4 million. That's actually in the appendix. If you want to look at the slide that is the currency impact, I think it's slide 60, page number 64 in the appendix. So if you want to look at it there, it breaks all that. It also breaks it out by the revenue.

是的，就外匯而言，我的意思是，它今年肯定產生了影響。我們的營業利潤成長了 10%，如果排除外匯的影響，則成長了 12%，所以成長確實很穩健，但若不考慮外匯的影響，成長幅度可能更高。如果你看看美洲的影響，大約在 1600 萬美元中，大約有 500 萬美元。EMEAA 地區為 600 萬美元，大中華區為 100 萬美元，我們的管理費用約為 400 萬美元。它實際上在附錄。如果您想看有關貨幣影響的投影片，我認為它是附錄中的第 60 張投影片，第 64 頁。所以如果你想在那裡看它，它會打破這一切。它還按收入進行了分類。

Jarrod Castle, UBS.

瑞銀的賈羅德‧卡斯爾 (Jarrod Castle)。

I mean, firstly just the US situation, how are you thinking about potential impact from what's going on with removing some of the migrants mostly, is it potentially going to have an impact on employment costs or the ability for certain hotels to function? Maybe they're not IHG hotels. And then secondly, obviously related to that also the tariffs, be it on GDP or procurement, how are you thinking about that?

我的意思是，首先就美國的情況而言，您如何看待驅逐部分移民可能產生的影響，這是否會對就業成本或某些飯店的營運能力產生影響？也許它們不是洲際酒店集團旗下的飯店。其次，顯然也與此相關的是關稅，無論是針對 GDP 還是採購，您對此是如何看待的？

I guess switching to Europe, just any thoughts on if there is peace, Ukraine, Russia, would you look to push again in Russia, just thoughts on opportunities. And then lastly, you touched on ESG aspects, but can you talk a bit about how you're thinking about disruption caused by climate change specifically? I'm thinking about recent events in California and Florida, parts of the mid in terms of fires in Greece and floods, etc. I mean, how do you see that impacting your footprint, both now and going forward in terms of how you're thinking about future signing things?

我想轉到歐洲，只是想談談是否有和平，烏克蘭、俄羅斯，你是否希望再次推動俄羅斯的發展，只是對機會的看法。最後，您談到了 ESG 方面，但您能否具體談談您對氣候變遷造成的破壞的看法？我正在考慮最近在加利福尼亞州和佛羅裡達州發生的事件，以及中部地區發生的希臘火災和洪水等事件。

Nothing casual about your topics today. So look, on the US, I would say we should all just take a deep breath and wait and see what actually happens, what are the final policy, what is the final status, what is the final effect? Clearly, there's a lot of noise of what will be implemented, what won't be implemented, what tariffs get applied, and then they're disapplied. And so, I just think we should just take a breath, and it hasn't been even two months, actually it hasn't even been a month since the inauguration. That's in a couple of days and let's just see what actually happens.

今天你的話題沒有什麼隨意的。所以，就美國而言，我想說，我們都應該深呼吸，等待看看究竟會發生什麼，最終的政策是什麼，最終的地位是什麼，最終的效果是什麼？顯然，對於哪些措施將實施，哪些措施不會實施，哪些關稅將實施，哪些關稅將取消，存在許多爭議。所以，我認為我們應該喘口氣，現在還不到兩個月，實際上距離就職典禮不到一個月。那是幾天後的事了，讓我們看看到底會發生什麼事。

Generally, look, we've been in the US 80 years. Almost every time there's a new President from election, it is from the opposite parties with very few exceptions, almost every time in the last 75 years. And so, we're used to a lot of change. Our businesses prospered. It actually prospered under the previous administration from 2024. It prospered under the current administration, which was the previous administration, between '16 and '20.

總的來說，我們已經在美國生活了 80 年。幾乎每次選舉產生新總統，除了極少數例外，都是來自對立政黨，過去的 75 年幾乎每次都是如此。所以，我們已經習慣了很多改變。我們的生意興隆。事實上，從 2024 年開始，它在上一屆政府的領導下實現了繁榮。在2016年至2020年的現任政府（也就是上一屆政府）領導下，這個地區繁榮昌盛。

And if I look at the fundamentals of the US economy, they're still pretty solid, and whether there are as many pro-growth policies implemented or not, I think the underlying drivers of the US economy are less government driven and they're industry driven. I mean, the best technology in the world, highly educated population, a strong infrastructure, strong financial markets, great propensity to travel, strong corporate sector, those things have a propulsion of their own, and we'll just have to wait and see what the final status of these policies, also on migrants, let's just really wait and see what happens.

如果我看一下美國經濟的基本面，它們仍然非常穩固，無論是否實施了那麼多促進成長的政策，我認為美國經濟的根本驅動力不是政府驅動，而是由產業驅動。我的意思是，世界上最好的技術、受過高等教育的人口、強大的基礎設施、強大的金融市場、巨大的旅遊傾向、強大的企業部門，這些因素都有其自身的推動力，我們只需要等待，看看這些政策的最終狀態，對於移民也是如此，讓我們拭目以待，看看會發生什麼。

It's a lot of talk, and we haven't seen any effect in our hotels yet. And probably the wisest thing is to wait and see what actually happens, what changes in the context. There's been a lot of conversation around migrants and migration for years. It never has really affected our business. We operate with documented workers. That's our policy in our in our hotels, whether it's managed or franchised.

雖然人們談論了很多，但我們尚未在酒店中看到任何效果。也許最明智的做法是等待，看看實際會發生什麼，情況會發生什麼變化。多年來，人們一直就移民和遷移問題進行大量討論。它從未真正影響過我們的業務。我們與有證工人合作。這是我們酒店的政策，無論是管理酒店還是特許經營酒店。

On the EU, we hope for peace. We hope for prosperity. We hope for growth in the EU and in the UK. We don't have any plans to go back into Russia at this point, whatever the outcome is of that those discussions, but hopefully, they bring a lasting peace.

關於歐盟，我們希望和平。我們希望繁榮昌盛。我們希望歐盟和英國能夠成長。無論這些討論的結果如何，我們目前都沒有重返俄羅斯的計劃，但希望這些討論能帶來持久的和平。

And disruptions from climate change, look, we watch it very closely. We take a very serious view on not just ESG, but climate policy, and unfortunately, there are natural disasters that occur frequently. We're in 100 countries, and I have to tell you that there's something unfortunately happening whether it's a typhoon or a hurricane or a drought or an earthquake quite frequently, and sadly, and on our regions at all times. It has not disrupted our overall business.

至於氣候變遷造成的干擾，我們正密切關注。我們不僅非常重視 ESG，而且非常重視氣候政策，不幸的是，自然災害頻繁發生。我們遍佈 100 個國家，我必須說，無論何時何地，不幸的事情都會發生，無論是颱風、颶風、乾旱還是地震，而且不幸的是，這些災害時常發生在我們的地區。它並沒有擾亂我們的整體業務。

Yes, it may disrupt business in one part until it recovers, but then our distribution, our 100 countries that we're in, our diversification usually carries us through and even this last year, despite the hurricanes in Florida, the fires in LA where I was just two weeks ago, typhoons in Asia, the net was not a disruption to our business. We're not saying that we wish for these events. We're just saying that we've got a lot of experience powering through them.

是的，它可能會在某個地區擾亂業務直至恢復，但是我們的分銷網絡、我們在 100 個國家的業務、我們的多元化通常會幫助我們渡過難關，甚至在去年，儘管佛羅裡達遭遇了颶風，兩週前我所在的洛杉磯發生了火災，亞洲也遭遇了颱風，但網絡並沒有對我們的業務造成乾擾。我們並不是說我們希望發生這些事件。我們只是說我們在處理這些事情上有豐富的經驗。

And let's not forget that hotels, in most cases, are a place of refuge and comfort. I was speaking to the -- I got a letter from chief executive of a major business in Los Angeles was very thankful that she and her colleagues could take refuge at the Intercontinental downtown LA when unfortunately, their homes were damaged in Pacific Palisades. We hope that none of this happens, but we're always there for people when there are these events.

請不要忘記，在大多數情況下，酒店是一個避難和舒適的地方。我當時正在和——我收到了洛杉磯一家大企業的首席執行官的一封信，她非常感謝她和她的同事能夠在洛杉磯市中心的洲際酒店避難，不幸的是，他們的家在太平洋帕利塞德被毀了。我們希望這些事情都不會發生，但是當這些事情發生時，我們總是會在人們身邊。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

[Kate Chou], Bernstein.

[凱特週]，伯恩斯坦。

There's one question on, if possible, the recently announced co-lending agreement with one of the lenders in the US, Havana. I think the announcement was that there's a total commitment of $250 million in construction loans for certain US-based projects. Can I please ask how much, what kind of level you're expecting from the ISG side? Is it like a 50/50 kind of agreement or are you expecting less or or a bit more?

如果可能的話，我有一個問題關於最近宣布的與美國哈瓦那貸款機構達成的共同貸款協議。我認為該公告的內容是，向某些美國項目提供總計 2.5 億美元的建設貸款。我可以問一下您對 ISG 方面的期望是多少、什麼程度嗎？這是否是一種 50/50 的協議，還是您期望的百分比是多一點還是少一點？

And what is the timeline for that capital you expect to be drawn upon? And certainly, do you see this as a temporary solution to the certain brands in the US or do you think this could be rolled out potentially as a recurring kind of aid to wider brands for them to stay more competitive with other brands in the market? Thank you.

您預計動用這筆資金的時間表是怎樣的？當然，您是否認為這只是針對美國某些品牌的臨時解決方案，還是認為這可以作為一種持續性的援助措施推廣到更廣泛的品牌，使它們在市場上與其他品牌保持更強的競爭力？謝謝。

First of all, it was something that Elie and I actually were working on in the Americas, and we've been trying to work it for some time as we think it's a unique way to to help owners grow. Unfortunately, Elie and I weren't able to do it there and the great team there now has been able to get it done once we left, so good on them.

首先，這是我和艾利在美洲實際進行的工作，我們一直嘗試進行這項工作一段時間，因為我們認為這是幫助業主成長的獨特方式。不幸的是，Elie 和我無法在那裡完成這件事，但我們離開後，那裡的優秀團隊已經能夠完成這件事，他們做得很好。

And what I would really say to and the way to look at it is we're partnering with them. The vast majority of capital that goes out will be part of the Havana team and their capital, we will provide support, but it would be no more than what we would do with key money for any property. And so, I would treat it within that $200 million to $250 million of capital guidance we've given, that was where it would sit.

我真正想說的是，我們看待這個問題的方式是，我們正在與他們合作。流出的資金絕大部分將屬於哈瓦那團隊及其資金，我們將提供支持，但不會超過我們對任何房產的押金所做的支持。因此，我將按照我們給出的 2 億至 2.5 億美元的資本指導金額來處理它，這就是它應該達到的水平。

So, we're very comfortable with that and that approach. It doesn't put us at any further risk because we'll be limited in our risk, but that's how I would think about it. And Elie, maybe you can just add on.

所以，我們對此和這種方法非常滿意。這不會為我們帶來任何進一步的風險，因為我們的風險是有限的，但這就是我的想法。還有 Elie，也許你可以補充一下。

I mean, as you know, going out of the pandemic and then you had inflation, you had interest rate increases, it was harder for our owners to get projects financed, and we've always helped them putting together financing packages, telling the story to their lenders, describing the strength of the ICU brands and their enterprise, and that's been a very important source of help. We partnered very closely with our owners on getting through all the processes, and we thought this was an incremental thing we could do.

我的意思是，如你所知，疫情過後，又出現了通貨膨脹和利率上升，我們的業主更難獲得專案融資，而我們一直幫助他們制定融資方案，向他們的貸方講述故事，描述 ICU 品牌和企業的實力，這是非常重要的幫助來源。我們與業主密切合作，完成了所有流程，我們認為這是我們可以逐步完成的事情。

Yes, the financial markets are improving, thawing out for new development in the US. We see that ticking up, and I've said for now a couple of years, it's going to tick up. It's not going to soar up. It's just going to tick up, and it is ticking up as inflation and interest rates have stabilized, maybe not gone down as much as people would have liked, but they've stabilized at least. And so, while we're sort of grinding up a new development financing, this could be a bit of an accelerator for certain properties and certain owners that we think we can support, but we don't think we're taking any material risk here, and it's well within our guidance for capital.

是的，金融市場正在好轉，為美國的新發展做好準備。我們看到這一趨勢正在上升，而且我已經說過，就目前而言，未來幾年，這一趨勢還會上升。它不會飛漲。它只會逐漸上升，而且隨著通貨膨脹和利率的穩定，它也會逐漸上升，也許不會像人們希望的那樣下降，但至少已經穩定下來了。因此，雖然我們正在籌備新的開發融資，但這對於我們認為可以支持的某些房產和某些業主來說可能是一種加速器，但我們認為我們在這裡不會承擔任何重大風險，而且這完全符合我們的資本指導範圍。

Andre Juillard, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的安德烈‧朱亞爾 (Andre Juillard)。

First one on Ruby acquisition, which seems to be pretty attractive. Is there a magic number in terms of brands? You are now at 20, if I compare you to Marriott, they are well above that number, but what is the idea behind that and what is the optimized number of brands you can manage.

第一個關於 Ruby 收購的消息，看起來相當有吸引力。對於品牌來說，是否存在一個神奇的數字？你們現在有 20 個品牌，如果我將你們與萬豪進行比較，他們的品牌數量要遠遠超過這個數字，但這背後的想法是什麼，你們可以管理的最佳品牌數量是多少。

Second question about leverage, you are mentioning that you would probably be close to 2.5 times then that will be the at the end of '25. Do you think about any change in your midterm guidance, or do you still remain on the same number?

第二個問題是關於槓桿率，您提到槓桿率可能會接近 2.5 倍，那將是 25 年底的數字。您是否考慮過對您的中期預測做出任何改變，還是仍維持原來的數字？

And last question if I may, about tax rates you've been guiding on 27%. If we listen to what Donald Trump has been saying, he was thinking about lowering the tax rate in the US, do you have an idea or quantification that we could anticipate or is it still early stage for that? Thank you.

如果可以的話，最後一個問題是關於您指導的 27% 的稅率。如果我們聽唐納德·川普說過的話，他正在考慮降低美國的稅率，您是否有一個我們可以預測的想法或量化數字，或者現在還處於早期階段？謝謝。

I mean, look, If the mere number of brands that somebody had was the measure of success and valuations in the industry would be different than what they are. What really matters is having brands that are relevant to guests and to owners that you can scale in segments that are attractive. So, we think we have a very powerful portfolio today, and even before that addresses the main segments that we want to grow in.

我的意思是，如果僅僅以某人擁有的品牌數量來衡量成功，那麼該行業的估值就會有所不同。真正重要的是擁有與客人和業主相關的品牌，並且可以在有吸引力的細分市場中擴大規模。因此，我們認為我們今天擁有非常強大的產品組合，甚至在此之前就已經解決了我們想要發展的主要領域。

But we also know it's a dynamic industry, right? It's not a static industry, so your strategy can't be static. 10 years ago, we had 10 brands, but in 10 years, things changed. People's travel preferences change and owners' desires to invest capital and different segments change, and we have to adapt with those. But going to those segments where there's an intersection, and the intersection is where there's strong demand by travelers and strong interest from owners to build. And where there's that intersection, we want to be at that intersection. If we're not, then we want to go there.

但我們也知道這是一個充滿活力的行業，對吧？這不是一個靜態的產業，因此你的策略也不能是靜態的。 10年前，我們有10個品牌，但10年後，情況改變了。人們的旅行偏好正在發生變化，業主的投資意願和不同細分市場也在發生變化，我們必須適應這些變化。但是，在那些有交叉路口的路段，旅行者的需求很強烈，業主的建設興趣也很濃厚。而當那個交叉路口存在時，我們就想到達那個交叉路口。如果不是，那我們就想去那裡。

We were not at the intersection of Uber luxury, where many of our own intercontinental and Kimpton travelers were sometimes wanting something even more exclusive and going. So, we went in with Six Senses and Regent very successfully, not because we wanted two more brands and try to catch up with anybody else that was adding brands, but because there was shareholder value to create, and we have a lot with Six Senses and with Regent.

我們還沒有達到 Uber 奢華的水平，而我們許多洲際和 Kimpton 旅行者有時則想要體驗更獨特和奢華的體驗。因此，我們非常成功地收購了六善和麗晶酒店，這並不是因為我們想要再收購兩個品牌並試圖趕上其他新增品牌的公司，而是因為可以創造股東價值，而六善和麗晶酒店為我們帶來了很多利益。

And same thing, when you get to Essentials and Suites, we launched Garner up because it was 2024 and we hadn't launched a brand yet. We saw a space desire from owners who came to us and said they would like to join us with their products. It wasn't quite a Holiday Inn Express, but if there was a conversion solution, etc., so we've been thinking about that for multiple years and then decided that was the right time and it's been very successful.

同樣，當您談到 Essentials 和 Suites 時，我們推出了 Garner，因為當時是 2024 年，而我們尚未推出品牌。我們看到業主對空間的渴望，他們來找我們並表示願意帶著他們的產品加入我們。它不完全是智選假日酒店，但如果有轉換解決方案等，那麼我們已經考慮了好幾年，然後決定這是正確的時機，而且非常成功。

And so, the urban micro spaces, one that has developed, it wasn't really much of anything 10 years ago but has developed as real estate prices have increased in center cities, as people's propensity to travel has increased as they've been looking for, yes, lifestyle experiences when they travel, but not necessarily just in their room. They want a great pitta ter where they land in a city with a smart design, a buzzy, dynamic public space, but not so much where it's not affordable anymore.

因此，城市微空間已經發展起來，10 年前它並沒有什麼特別，但隨著中心城市房地產價格的上漲，人們的旅行傾向也隨之增加，因為他們在旅行時一直在尋找生活方式的體驗，但不一定只在自己的房間裡。他們想要一棟很棒的房子，坐落在一個設計精美、公共空間熱鬧又充滿活力的城市，但又不會太貴。

And so, this urban micro space that's been attractive to us, we've been spying it for some time, and we think Ruby is the best entry point in the industry for this, but that's not because we were at 19 and wanted to be at 20. No, it's because there's a space of profitable growth for us to go. So, I think the industry will continue to be dynamic. I don't know that we will need anything in the near future, but I can tell you 5 years from or whatever as the industry develops, we'll be looking at other intersections of guest demand and owner interest to participate in. And if there are no new ones, we've got a lot to grow from the brands that we have already, and if there are new ones, we'll choose to participate.

因此，這個對我們很有吸引力的城市微空間，我們已經觀察了一段時間了，我們認為 Ruby 是這個行業的最佳切入點，但這並不是因為我們當時只有 19 歲，而想要達到 20 歲。不是，因為我們還有獲利成長的空間。因此，我認為這個行業將繼續保持活力。我不知道我們在不久的將來是否需要任何東西，但我可以告訴你，從五年後或者隨著行業的發展，我們將尋找客人需求和業主興趣的其他交叉點來參與。如果沒有新的品牌，我們可以在已有品牌的基礎上獲得很大的發展；如果有新的品牌，我們也會選擇參與。

Yeah, I think as we go to the net EBITDA question and the change to the medium to long-term algorithm, I just go back to our uses of capital remain unchanged. We're going to invest in the business. We've done that consistently, whether that's launching new brands or acquiring new brands like we've just done with Ruby. We intend to sustainably grow the ordinary dividend and then return excess cash back to shareholders. And the model is allowing us to do that and do that consistently and we'll continue to do that.

是的，我認為，當我們討論淨 EBITDA 問題和中長期演算法的變化時，我只是回到我們的資本用途保持不變的問題。我們將對這項業務進行投資。我們一直在這樣做，無論是推出新品牌，還是收購新品牌，就像我們剛剛收購 Ruby 一樣。我們打算持續增加普通股息，然後將多餘的現金回饋給股東。這個模型允許我們這樣做，並且始終如一地這樣做，我們會繼續這樣做。

As I mentioned earlier, if you look at, again, where is consensus and where we think it could move to and what that looks like from an earnings per share growth perspective, certainly the co-brand credit card at $40 million that we've talked about being incremental this year and the $25 million from the point sales is pushing that to the top end and above those earnings per share, targets that we laid out in that medium to long term growth algorithm. But we think about this business for the long term and so, as you think about the medium to long-term growth algorithm, we feel like that's the right place to be.

正如我之前提到的，如果您再次查看共識在哪里以及我們認為它可能走向何處以及從每股收益增長的角度來看它會是什麼樣子，毫無疑問，我們談到的今年增量的 4000 萬美元聯名信用卡和 2500 萬美元的點銷售額將其推向最高端並高於每股收益，這是我們在中長期增長算法中製定的目標。但我們是從長遠考慮這項業務的，因此，當你考慮中長期成長演算法時，我們覺得這是正確的選擇。

Now, obviously, there'll be some ups and downs. It is a medium to long term-growth algorithm. This -- the credit card and the point of sales is going to push us over that kind of guidance. So, that's a great thing and it's good for our shareholders, we're just letting that flow through. And but we feel like that that algorithm is the right place to be for us longer term.

現在，顯然會有一些起伏。它是一種中長期成長演算法。這——信用卡和銷售點將會推動我們超越這種指引。所以，這是一件偉大的事情，對我們的股東也有好處，我們只是讓它順利進行。但我們覺得，從長遠來看，該演算法才是適合我們的地方。

And then in terms of tax, I certainly wouldn't put anything in yet and model anything. We've been -- we've shared today that we feel like modeling at 27% is the right tax rate for now. Let's wait and see what happens and what it gets approved and all that turns out. And as soon as we do, we'll let you know how to model that differently.

那麼在稅收方面，我當然不會投入任何東西或建立任何東西的模型。我們今天已經表達過，我們認為 27% 的稅率是目前合適的稅率。讓我們拭目以待，看看接下來會發生什麼、它會獲得批准嗎以及最終結果如何。一旦我們這樣做了，我們就會告訴你如何以不同的方式進行建模。

Maybe one follow up on the on the brand portfolio perfectly understand that. Just to follow up on the brand first for you, I perfectly understand that 2 is not a magic number but just wanted to understand if you had an opportunity with Ruby on the urban segment. But with [Bearsar], I think that it was quite interesting to see you moving on the resort side. Do you still feel that there is some potential -- some growth potential on that segment as well?

也許對品牌組合進行跟進的人就能完全理解這一點。首先為您跟進一下品牌情況，我完全理解 2 並不是一個神奇的數字，但我只是想了解您是否有機會與 Ruby 一起進入城市市場。但對於 [Bearsar]，我認為看到你在度假村方面採取行動非常有趣。您是否仍然認為該領域還具有一定的潛力—一定的成長潛力？

Look, we're excited about the opportunities that the [Bearsar] relationship has opened up and we grew it again in 2024. It's given us access to dozens and dozens of beachfront resorts that were not part of our system, and our guests appreciate that now that they can earn and burn loyalty points there and book directly through our channels.

看，我們對 [Bearsar] 關係所帶來的機會感到非常興奮，並且我們將在 2024 年再次發展這種關係。它使我們能夠進入數十個以前不屬於我們系統的海濱度假村，我們的客人很高興現在他們可以在那裡賺取和使用忠誠度積分，並直接透過我們的管道預訂。

And we -- in our over 400 luxury and lifestyle properties that are being developed around the world, there are many that are resort properties in North America, especially in Asia, in China, in the Middle East. There's just a collection of resorts that's been opening and that's coming, and some are beachfront resorts, some are mountain resorts. I mean, last year we announced Six Senses Telluride in Colorado, we opened Regent Santa Monica in the LA region, we opened Regent [Fuqua] in Vietnam, we have an urban, we opened Six Senses Kyoto, sort of an urban resort. I mean, Indigo and the Galapagos and Indigo in the Grand Cayman. I mean, it's just a rolling thunder of great resorts that are coming and that have been coming.

我們在全球開發的超過 400 處豪華和生活方式地產中，有許多是北美、特別是亞洲、中國和中東的度假地產。現在已經有一批度假村開業和即將開業，有些是海濱度假村，有些是山區度假村。我的意思是，去年我們宣佈在科羅拉多州開設特柳賴德六善酒店，在洛杉磯地區開設聖莫尼卡麗晶酒店，在越南開設麗晶 [福誇] 酒店，我們有一個城市，我們在京都開設了六善酒店，這是一種城市度假村。我的意思是，加拉巴哥群島的靛藍和大開曼島的靛藍。我的意思是，一大批大型度假村正在陸續落成。

So I mean, the map is very wide when you start talking resort. Yes, we're excited about it and there's more we can do with our brands. And look, if we find another brand opportunity that is differentiated from what we do, we'll certainly look at it. Obviously, we take a look at everything out there, as you've seen, we're pretty thoughtful about what we buy. We don't rush into anything. We try to do it where it's a differentiated offer in our portfolio.

所以我的意思是，當你開始談論度假村時，地圖就非常廣闊。是的，我們對此感到非常興奮，我們可以利用我們的品牌做更多的事情。而且，如果我們發現另一個與我們所做的事情不同的品牌機會，我們肯定會考慮它。顯然，我們會仔細考慮所有東西，正如您所看到的，我們對所購買的東西非常謹慎。我們不會急於做任何事。我們嘗試在我們的產品組合中提供差異化產品。

We are very careful to find things that are valuable. We don't overpay. We think that the multiple here in the mid-teens going in and quickly going down to single digit is very attractive. So, we're confident in our organic growth potential and resort and elsewhere but always looking for what else can happen.

我們非常小心地尋找有價值的東西。我們不會多付錢。我們認為，這裡的倍數從十幾歲到十多歲迅速下降到個位數是非常有吸引力的。因此，我們對我們的有機成長潛力、度假村和其他地方充滿信心，但也一直在尋找其他可能發生的事情。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Alex Brignall, Redburn Atlantic.

亞歷克斯‧布里格納爾 (Alex Brignall)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

Just one on net unit growth, please. It's the general theme of the quarter so far, the full you're reporting is disappointment on net unit growth from, I guess, across the peer set with a lot of your peers who gave long-term net unit growth guides, sort of including within their guide things that they've either acquired one or you've included. The hotel that you gave away the Venetian within what they called organic.

請僅就淨單位增長問題提問一次。這是本季度迄今為止的總體主題，我猜，您所報告的全部內容是同行對淨單位增長的失望，您的許多同行都給出了長期淨單位增長指南，在他們的指南中包括了他們已經獲得或您所包含的內容。您贈送的威尼斯人酒店就是他們所謂的有機酒店。

And if we look at your numbers and take off NOVUM, which obviously, you paid some money for last year in terms of the deal structure, then you're in the sort of mid 3s even if we include -- even if we even if we add back the Venetian. So, if we look forward and given that occupancy in the US is still several 100 basis points below where it was in 2019, why does net unit growth need to get back to where it was, and do we just need to adjust to the fact that it's just going to be lower? It seems to be a sort of adjustment that lots of people are saying it's temporary, but that seems a good reason why net unit doesn't need to be as as high given the demand environment, and it seems to be just pushed up by these little deals. Thank you.

如果我們看一下你們的數字，並且去掉 NOVUM（顯然，你們在去年的交易結構中為它支付了一些錢），那麼即使我們把威尼斯人也算進去，你們的數字也只能算是 3 左右的中間水平。因此，如果我們展望未來，考慮到美國的入住率仍比 2019 年低幾百個基點，為什麼淨單位增長率需要回到原來的水平，而我們是否只需要適應它只會更低的事實呢？這似乎是一種調整，很多人都說這是暫時的，但這似乎是一個很好的理由，說明為什麼在需求環境下淨單位不需要那麼高，而它似乎只是被這些小交易推高了。謝謝。

Look, I won't speak for others what they guided to and what they've adjusted to, and what I'll tell you from our point of view, we're actually pretty confident and pleased with where we're at and where we can go. The Venetian we discussed openly Q3 was a legacy transaction, didn't earn the company any money. We're doing things differently today and we're very grateful for the relationship we had with them, but we're both going in different directions, and that's just fine with us.

聽著，我不會代表其他人談論他們的指導方向和他們所適應的內容，但我會從我們的角度告訴你，我們實際上對我們所處的位置以及我們能去的地方非常有信心和滿意。我們在第三季公開討論的威尼斯人是一項遺留交易，沒有為公司賺到任何錢。今天我們做事的方式不同了，我們非常感謝與他們之間的關係，但我們都朝著不同的方向前進，這對我們來說很好。

But we were confident in the progression that we made in 2024/2023, even if you did not count NOVUM in signings and openings, it was a progression, but I would not characterize NOVUM as something similar to some of these other partnerships and acquisition. It was neither a partnership nor an acquisition. It was a franchise deal, just happened to be 119 separate individual franchise deals, and so there are 20-year agreements. They pay full fees. They pay a full system. There are no termination rights, and it's growing even further from there. It's not a pay for performance. It's none of those things that you may or may not have excluded from the numbers of others that should lead to any disappointment, so we don't exclude it from our underlying performance.

但我們對 2024/2023 年的進展充滿信心，即使你沒有將 NOVUM 的簽約和開張計算在內，這也是一個進步，但我不會將 NOVUM 描述為與其他一些合作夥伴關係和收購類似的東西。這既不是合作也不是收購。這是一項特許經營協議，恰好是 119 項獨立的個人特許經營協議，因此有 20 年的協議。他們支付全額費用。他們支付了整個系統的費用。沒有終止權，而且從那時起它甚至還在進一步發展。這不是按績效付酬。無論你是否從其他人的數字中排除了這些因素，這些因素都不會導致任何失望，因此我們不會將其排除在我們的基本表現之外。

We do a lot of conversions in every given year and maybe none necessarily right away of the same scale, but when you add them all up, it's still a lot of conversions that they could roll up to a big number, and I'm confident they will roll up the big number in 2025 also. So, we're confident in the guidance we've given for 2025 at 4 or above, and you know it's consistent with where we've been and always inching up and moving forward. It'll be our fourth year of solid net system size growth and growing, and you know if the others have had to change the expectations or meet them in different ways, that's not down to us.

我們每年都會進行大量的轉換，也許沒有一個會立即達到相同的規模，但是當你把它們全部加起來時，仍然有很多轉換可以匯總到一個大數字，我相信他們在 2025 年也會匯總到這個大數字。因此，我們對 2025 年給予的 4 或更高的指導充滿信心，而且您知道這與我們一直以來的目標一致，並且始終在緩慢上升和前進。這將是我們的淨系統規模穩定成長的第四年，你知道，如果其他人必須改變期望或以不同的方式滿足這些期望，那就不是我們的責任。

Our algorithm works. At the current system size growth and it'll work better as it keeps moving up. As you can see that, I think where there have been further questions, Alex, is where the changes in that system sized growth have not led to the bottom of the algorithm outcome. In our case, that's not the situation. We delivered 15% EPS growth and 10% EBIT growth with clean, clear net system size growth and RevPAR that's been accelerating. So, we were confident in continuing on the track we do.

我們的演算法有效。在目前系統規模不斷增長的情況下，它會運作得更好。正如您所看到的，亞歷克斯，我認為存在進一步的疑問，即係統規模增長的變化並沒有導致演算法結果的底部。就我們的情況而言，情況並非如此。我們實現了每股盈餘成長 15%，息稅前利潤成長 10%，同時淨系統規模成長清晰，每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 也在加速成長。因此，我們有信心繼續走下去。

In terms of the industry occupancy, yeah, is a point or two in the US, but rate is strong, but supply is low. Supply is low and demand keeps growing, and the supply has been constrained by restrictive financing environment, and you can see that our signings keep growing and those in the industry keep growing. There is demand from owners to build. There is demand from guests to travel. But the financing market has been thawing out gently, and that's why our signings keep growing in the US and our openings keep growing in the US. They're not a V-shaped recovery, but they're growing, and that means that demand is there from travelers, demand is there from owners, and it's going to continue to build, I think, to be back to where it used to be at a stabilized basis, maybe not the peak years, but on a stabilized basis.

就行業入住率而言，是的，在美國是一到兩個百分點，但是入住率很高，但供應量很低。供應量低而需求量不斷增長，供應量受到限制性融資環境的限制，你可以看到我們的簽約量不斷增長，行業內的簽約量也不斷增長。業主有建設需求。客人有旅遊需求。但融資市場一直在緩慢解凍，這就是為什麼我們在美國的簽約量和開業數量不斷增長的原因。雖然這不是 V 型復甦，但正在增長，這意味著來自旅行者的需求、來自業主的需求，而且我認為這種需求將繼續增強，直到回到以前的穩定水平，也許不是巔峰時期，但也是在穩定的基礎上。

If I could just tie it back to key money, obviously, the NOVUM deal had an element of cash contribution in terms of the conversions and there's been several questions asked about key money so we don't need to ask about them anymore.

如果我可以將其與關鍵資金聯繫起來，顯然，NOVUM 交易在轉換方麵包含現金貢獻的因素，並且已經有人詢問了有關關鍵資金的幾個問題，因此我們不需要再詢問它們了。

But just in terms of the way that these deals are being structured, we've seen some that are done with a sort of OTA style fee structure. When you look out at these deals, you've done particularly well at the ones that you've done. Is it hard to find them where you sort of are happy with the terms being offered? Are you finding other people that are being so just taking the rooms because they just want the rooms and as you said, it then doesn't end up in fees. Do you sort of -- are you just being particularly selective in the ones that you do in a market where others maybe aren't being so selective?

但就這些交易的結構方式而言，我們看到一些交易採用了某種 OTA 式的費用結構。當你回顧這些交易時，你會發現，你已經在那些交易上做得特別好了。要找到讓您滿意的條款是否很困難？您是否發現其他人只是因為想要房間而租下房間，而且正如您所說，這樣就無需支付費用。您是否會—在別人可能不那麼挑剔的市場中，您會不會對自己所做的事情特別挑剔？

Well, look, again, I won't comment on what others are doing and why they're doing it. What I will say is we're not interested in keys without fees, right? We're interested in growing the value of our business for our shareholders. And now, there are varying fees by market, varying fees by asset class. There are certain incredible halo assets which may have a different fee structure, but they've got to be creating value for us, otherwise we're not going to participate.

好吧，我再說一遍，我不會評論其他人在做什麼以及為什麼這樣做。我要說的是，我們對免費鑰匙不感興趣，對嗎？我們有興趣為股東增加業務價值。現在，不同市場的費用不同，不同資產類別的費用也不同。某些令人難以置信的光環資產可能有不同的費用結構，但它們必須為我們創造價值，否則我們就不會參與。

When you say the OTA type of agreements that we've made, I'm not aware that we've made any recently. Sorry. Okay, well, we won't comment on what they've done. What I can tell you is that we look at a lot of stuff that gets brought to us and we're very selective about what we do and what works, and it's got to contribute to our growth algorithm on the medium to long term or we don't consider it. Sometimes key money is involved, but that is only when we still feel like we're getting a substantial level of value.

當您說到我們已達成的 OTA 類型的協議時，我不知道我們最近是否達成任何協議。對不起。好吧，我們不會對他們所做的事情發表評論。我可以告訴你的是，我們會仔細研究收到的很多東西，並會精挑細選哪些是可行的，如果不能在中長期內促進我們的成長演算法，我們就不會考慮。有時會涉及禮金，但只有當我們仍覺得我們獲得了相當大的價值時才會這樣。

I could -- and you know this, Alex, we've said it before, we could go from our growth today to 7% growth to 6% net unit growth by just having done some of the deals that we would have seen in the last couple of years. I don't think it would have, I know it wouldn't created any value, but it would have been a distraction. Instead, we focused our people on growing in the right way in the right markets, and on doing the transactions like Ruby, like NOVUM, that are long term, that are creative, that pay fees, that are at a good value that I think build great shareholder value, or launching Garner where for very little capital, we're now at nearly 120 hotels open and pipeline in 6 or 7 countries, and I think we're just getting started. Like we -- I only have so much, Michael and I only have so much time in the day and when we're allocating it to the higher value opportunities, I think it pays off for everybody.

我可以－亞歷克斯，你知道，我們之前就說過，只要完成過去幾年的一些交易，我們的成長就能從今天的 7% 提高到 6% 的淨單位成長率。我不認為會這樣，我知道這不會創造任何價值，但它會分散注意力。相反，我們讓員工專注於在正確的市場中以正確的方式發展，專注於進行 Ruby 和 NOVUM 這樣的交易，這些交易是長期的、有創意的、有報酬的、具有良好價值的，我認為這些交易可以創造巨大的股東價值，或者推出 Garner，我們只用了很少的資本，現在已經在 6 或 7 個國家和籌備酒店開始了近 120 家酒店，而我認為我們才有近就像我們——我只有這麼多，邁克爾和我每天只有這麼多時間，當我們將其分配給更高價值的機會時，我認為這對每個人來說都是有益的。

Thank you very much. We currently have no more questions registered, so I will hand back over to Elie for any closing remarks.

非常感謝。目前我們沒有其他問題，因此我會把時間交還給 Elie 做結束語。

Well, thank you, everyone. It's been really great to connect with you today, update you on our 2024 full year results and strategic priorities. We're very proud of what our team's accomplished in the past year, and we remain very confident in our ability to continue delivering on our strategy and driving shareholder value going forward. Our next market communication will be our first quarter trading update on Thursday, May 8. Thank you for your time and interest in ISG and I look forward to catching up with you soon.

好吧，謝謝大家。今天能與您聯繫真的很高興，向您介紹我們 2024 年全年業績和戰略重點。我們為團隊在過去一年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，並且我們仍然對我們繼續實施我們的策略和推動股東價值的能力充滿信心。我們的下一次市場溝通將是 5 月 8 日星期四的第一季交易更新。感謝您對 ISG 的時間和關注，我期待很快與您聯繫。

Thank you very much, Elie, and thank you, Michael and Stuart, for being today's speakers. Thank you, everyone, for joining. We appreciate everyone's participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

非常感謝 Elie，也感謝 Michael 和 Stuart 擔任今天的演講者。感謝大家的加入。我們感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。