Icon Energy Corp (ICON) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Iconix Brand Group fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings conference call. With us on the call today are Neil Cole, Chief Executive Officer, Seth Horowitz, Chief Operating Officer, and Jeff Lupinacci, Chief Financial Officer. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions). Today's conference is being recorded. Before we begin, I will read the following Safe Harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

  • The statements that are not historical facts contained in this conference call are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors. All of which are difficult or impossible to predict and many of which are beyond the control of the Company. This may cause actual results, performance or achievements of the Company may be different from the results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from the results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. The words believe, anticipate, expect, confident and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date the statement is made. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Cole. Please go ahead, sir.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Iconix Brand Group's fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings conference call. We are pleased with our performance in 2014 and enthusiastic about our growing global platform, which today includes a diversified portfolio of over 35 brands that represents more than $13 billion in global retail sales. Over the past few years, we strategically pursued the expansion of our global footprint, which included the formation or extension of joint ventures around the world.

  • We see these joint venture formations as integral to our international growth strategy, as we get to partner with locally strong, best in class companies, who can bring our brands to market, more quickly and efficiently when we could achieve if we did it on our own. Before going into our financial results, I would like to highlight that in connection with our evolving business model, we evaluated how we present the results of the Company. In this morning's press release and upcoming 2014 10-K, our financial reporting includes a more detailed breakdown of revenue and a new presentation of free cash flow.

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Lupinacci, our CFO, who will take you through our financial results.

  • Jeff Lupinacci - EVP, CFO

  • Thank you, Neil, and good morning everyone. Reviewing results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2014. Total revenue in the fourth quarter was approximately $112.4 million, a 7% increase as compared to approximately $105.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. Our strong top line reflects growth in licensing revenue of 16% to $102.2 million from $88.3 million in the prior year quarter and other revenue of $10.3 million compared to $17 million in the prior year quarter.

  • Other revenue in the quarter resulted from a revenue gain related to the formation of a new joint venture with global brands group to grow our international footprint in the Middle East. Non-GAAP net income was approximately $28.3 million, a decline of 6%, compared to $30.2 million in the prior year quarter. Diluted non-GAAP earnings per share in the fourth quarter increased 4% to $0.56, compared to $0.54 in the prior year quarter.

  • EBITDA in the fourth quarter was approximately $50.4 million, compared to $60.1 million in the prior year quarter, and our EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter of 2014 was approximately 45%, as compared to 57% in the prior year quarter. The Company anticipated lower margins, reflecting the strong growth in our Peanuts brands, which operates at a lower average margin, as well as investments in our international business, and increased marketing investments for certain brands, including Royal Velvet, Buffalo, and Umbro. Historically, our reported free cash flow did not account for the timing of payments.

  • It reflected both cash from operations, plus any notes we received in the respective time period from business initiatives such as the formation of joint ventures. While we view these initiatives as core to our overall operating strategy to have maximizing the value of our brand, the increased number of joint venture transactions in 2014 led to an increase in the notes receivable component of our previous free cash flow calculations. Accordingly, we established a new free cash flow definition to include only cash received in the period. Under the new calculation, we generated $46.3 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2014, as compared to $57.4 million in the prior year quarter.

  • Reviewing results for the full year ended December 31, 2014, our revenue increased 7% to approximately $461.2 million, as compared to $432.6 million in the prior year period. Licensing revenue increased 2% to $406.9 million, as compared to $398 million, and other revenue, which includes the formation of international joint ventures and the strategic sale of intellectual property, increased 57% to $54.3 million as compared to $34.6 million in 2013.

  • Our non-GAAP net income was approximately $145.5 million, a 2% increase as compared to $142.2 million in the prior year period and our diluted non-GAAP earnings per share increased 16% to $2.78, compared to $2.39 in the prior year period. GAAP net income for 2014 was approximately $152.7 million, a 19% increase as compared to $128 million in the prior year, and GAAP diluted earnings per share for 2014 increased 26% to $2.66, as compared to $2.11 in the prior year. Our EBITDA was approximately $263.8 million as compared to $262.9 million in the prior year period. Based on our new free cash flow definition, we generated free cash flow of approximately $174.3 million in 2014 compared to $235.5 million in 2013.

  • The primary difference between our 2014 free cash flow and our previously projected free cash flow for 2014 is at that our new calculation does not include notes receivable, which have grown meaningfully in 2014. With the goal of maximizing the value of our brands, we have recently entered into a number of joint ventures and other arrangements, in which our partners paid a portion of the purchase price at closing with a majority of the remaining payments to be received over a 3-year period. In 2014, we generated $174.3 million of free cash flow, and generated approximately $51.2 million of notes receivable.

  • At the end of 2014, inclusive of all prior strategic transactions, the Company had approximately $85.6 million of notes receivable from strong credits that the Company believes can be readily converted into cash. This includes $66.4 million of notes receivable related to the establishment and expansion of international joint ventures, and the sale of certain trademarks, as well as $19.2 million to receive from our long-term license for the Peanuts brand with ABC Disney.

  • While we believe these payment obligations are backed by high quality credits, we will not recognize them as free cash flow until the payments are received. The Company expects to receive $29.2 million of these receivables in 2015. EBITDA, free cash flow, non-GAAP net income, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share are all non-GAAP metrics, and reconciliation tables for each can be found in the press release sent earlier this morning and on our website, iconixbrand.com. Moving on to our balance sheet. We continue to be in a very strong position. We ended the year with $188 million of cash, and this month we took down $100 million from our existing revolver to finance our acquisition of Strawberry Shortcake.

  • Between our existing cash, additional capacity on our securitization facility and our strong free cash flow, we believe we have access to significant capital for future acquisitions and share repurchases. In 2014, we bought back a total of 5 million shares at an average price of $38.73. Since initiating our share repurchase program in October of 2011, we have repurchased approximately 29.1 million shares, or approximately 40% of our shares outstanding as of the beginning of the program, at an average share price of $26.57. We plan to continue to open opportunistically evaluate share repurchases and balance them with our acquisition strategy. With that, I will turn the call over to Seth Horowitz, our Chief Operating Officer.

  • Seth Horowitz - COO

  • Thank you, Jeff, and good morning everyone. 2014 was another strong year for our Company. Our growth was driven by the ongoing success of our direct to retail business with market leading retailers around the world, increasing momentum for our Peanuts brand, global market expansion for our portfolio and the extension of our international joint venture platform. To provide additional information about the performance of our brands by division, we have included a summary table of revenue attributed to women's, men's, home, and entertainment.

  • Each of which achieved positive year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter. The entertainment sector is an exciting area of growth for our Company, with a 32% increase in revenues in the fourth quarter and a 38% gain for the full year. The Peanuts brand has all ready begun to experience the positive effects of the upcoming movie release later this year. In 2014, in addition to renewing its agreement with two key licensees, Met Life and ABC, we have signed hundreds of new licenses around the world, and Peanuts products have already started taking incremental market share across a multitude of product categories and within key retailers, such as Macy's, Target, the Bay and Liverpool.

  • In addition, global specialty chains such as Forever 21, (inaudible), and H&M, continue to support and expand their Peanuts presence. The highly anticipated movie is expected to be released in 40 languages and more than 75 countries. The US premier is scheduled for November 2015, with release dates around the world throughout the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. Revenues for our women's brand, which are centered upon solid, long-term, direct to retailer licenses, were up 13% in the fourth quarter and 7% for the full year. Danskin Now continues to be a strong business with Walmart as we work together to capitalize on the increasing consumer demand for athletic and leisure products. In the past year, we renew some of our largest direct to retail licenses, including Mudd with Kohl's, Material Girl with Macy's, Danskin Now with Walmart, and (inaudible) Target. Once again displaying the power of our business model and brand with our best in class retail partners. Our home business grew 15% in the fourth quarter and 7% in the full year.

  • Royal Velvet is a leading brand in JC Penney's home section which has been a key area of growth for JC Penney, while Charisma continues to have a strong presence at Costco. In 2014, we signed a new direct to retail license with Walmart for Waverly inspiration. The line will be launching this spring in all Walmart stores with a unique, compelling fabric and craft selection. Our men's business showed strong improvement in the fourth quarter versus a year earlier. The Lee Cooper brand continues to perform extremely well around the world, while Rock Wear, Ecko unlimited and Ed Harvey are all experiencing new levels of success with licensees and diversified distribution channels.

  • On an annual basis, revenues for our men's brands, which also include Umbro, Starter, Zoo York, OP and Nick Graham, were down 22%, however, in the fourth quarter, by the same measurement, our men's brands were up 8% and we expect continued improvement in the current year. With that, I will turn the call over to Neil Cole, our Chief Executive Officer.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thank you, Seth and Jeff. In 2015, we are projecting to achieve another year of strong, top and bottom line growth, driven by a steady expansion in our domestic licensing business, our rapid growth in our international business, both inside our joint ventures and across the territories that we control, the excitement surrounding our upcoming Peanuts movie, and the benefits of our recently announced Strawberry Shortcake and Pony acquisitions.

  • We continue to see our international business as a key driver of growth for the Company, as we leverage our worldwide licensing and marketing platform, including our eight joint ventures to expand the revenue base of our global brands, Peanuts, Umbro, and Lee Cooper, to secure new licenses in new territories and across additional categories in our full brand portfolio, and to tap the underlying potential of the re-acquired territories within Latin America.

  • To recap our international joint venture strategy, our primary purposes is to bring our brands to market more efficiently, generating greater, short and long-term value, than if we were to build-out our own wholly owned operations ourselves across a multitude of international offices.

  • As our businesses in each territory structure of management include marketing, licensing, acquisitions, and finance, we may consider where possible acquiring full control ownership of our joint ventures as was the case in Latin American 2014. We believe there our approach to international joint ventures has enabled our brands to effectively increase licensing revenue, market share, and profitability. For example, in Latin America, royalty revenue for our brands in the JV increased from $2 million in 2009 to approximately $12 million in 2014. When the Latin America JV was formed in December of 2008, we had 16 licenses and one direct to retail agreement. Today, we have 53 licensees and 6 DTR's with the six most successful big box retailers, including (inaudible), Suburbia and Walmart.

  • Since 2008, we have completed eleven transactions with local partners to establish and expand our international business. Going forward, we expect to form additional joint ventures with the goal of developing markets that have not grown as quickly as we would have hoped. Moving onto acquisitions. We are excited to be expanding both our entertainment and sports platforms with two new acquisitions. In the entertainment space, we recently announced that we have signed definitive agreements with American Greetings to acquire the Strawberry Shortcake brand, a great compliment to our existing entertainment business.

  • Through our Peanuts brand, we have a powerful worldwide platform that we believe we can leverage. With the acquisition of Strawberry Shortcake, we will be expanding this platform as we gain new partnerships with top entertainment companies around the world, including Netflix, Discovery Family, Bud Studios, and the Bridge. Strawberry Shortcake has an impressive network of over 350 licensees, and is highly recognizable around the world, with revenue outside of the United States representing approximately 50% of total sales. We currently estimate that Strawberry Shortcake will generate approximately $18 million to $20 million of annual royalty revenue. Our sports brands have been some of the fastest growing in our portfolio, and they have proven to be truly global assets.

  • To accelerate our growth in this area, we recently acquired the North American rights to the athletic brand Pony, in partnership with a Footwear company called AL&F, a leader in that industry. By leveraging our existing sports platform, including Danskin, Starter, and Umbro, we believe we can grow Pony throughout North America, creating a profitable, multi-tiered distribution strategy, similar to our other successful sports brands. There's a high demand for authentic athletic lifestyle brands, and given Pony's strong brand recognition across both male and female consumers, we believe that Pony will generate approximately $7 million to $9 million of annual royalty revenue.

  • Moving on to guidance. Based on our recent acquisition and and in anticipation of plans for incremental expenses to support our growing global platform, we are raising our 2015 guidance as follows. We are raising our revenue guidance to $490 million to $510 million. We are raising our non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance to a range of $3.00 to $3.15. And based on our new free cash flow calculation, we are establishing free cash flow guidance of $208 million to $218 million. With the Peanuts movie launching in the fourth quarter and other strategic alternative initiatives anticipated later in the year, we expect revenue and earnings to be more back half weighed with approximately 45% in the first half and 55% in the back half of the year.

  • In closing, as we approach our tenth year anniversary in June, our Company is stronger than ever with a diversified portfolio of over 35 brands, and a growing global platform that includes over 50 direct to retail partnerships and over 1,100 licensees worldwide. We expect to continue to deliver growth and the expansion of our global footprint, our growing entertainment platform, continued execution on our acquisition strategy, and opportunistic share repurchases. It has been an exciting ten years and we look forward to continuing to deliver value to our shareholders. I would like to thank you all for listening this morning and for your continuing support. I will now turn it over to questions and answers.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Bob Drbul from Nomura.

  • Bob Drbul - Analyst

  • I just wanted to say thanks for the additional disclosure, I find it very helpful.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Great. Thanks. You're welcome.

  • Bob Drbul - Analyst

  • I guess a couple of questions I have on the first one is on the Peanuts, the raw to Peanuts, is some of that momentum happening sooner than you expected? As we think about the build into the movie, just make sure we understand exactly how strong it can be going in into the fourth quarter especially.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes. I'm not so sure how much happened earlier, but in 2014, we had the benefit of Disney or ABC renewed the Peanuts specials for the next five years and we also signed MetLife on for another long-term contract, so the combination of those definitely helped 2014. And 2015, we have incredible retail exposure around the world and it's going to be, each quarter is going to continue to get better, and culminating in hopefully a really strong fourth quarter because we get movie revenues starting there.

  • One of the things to add though is it's going to be a pretty strong global push in over 70 markets around the world, and I think half of them are in the first quarter of 2016, so we tried to play it both, then we also get the digital and video on demand rights in 2016 also. I don't know if I answered the question, but I did my best.

  • Bob Drbul - Analyst

  • I guess on the men's business, it seems like there may have been an inflection point in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about exactly what you have seen change there to demonstrate that growth that you saw after the declines for most of the year?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Seth, why don't you take that?

  • Seth Horowitz - COO

  • I think what we saw in the fourth quarter kind of reflects the transition we've been going through from the past 12 to 18 months with new core licensees, new distribution strategies that have resulted in strong sell throughs across the men's portfolio.

  • Bob Drbul - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks very much.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thanks, Bob.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Marotta from CL King and Associates.

  • Steve Marotta - Analyst

  • Good morning, everybody. A couple of questions. First, the SG&A level in the fourth quarter was up materially year-over-year. What can we consider a normalized run rate for2015?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes, fourth quarter we launched I believe three or four different major ad campaigns and the end number was pretty steady for the year. We just had pushed a lot of third quarter initiatives and even some back half second, and came up with some great marketing between Sharper Image, London Fog, Buffalo, and Royal Velvet all in the fourth quarter. Next year, and I'll let Jeff chime in if he disagrees, but we see the EBITDA level probably be in the mid 50s, where for the year I think we'll come out around 57, 58, and most of that is because of the increase of Peanuts revenue and the movie, and our EBITDA is a lot lower on Peanuts than the rest of that portfolio.

  • Steve Marotta - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Did I answer that, Steve?

  • Steve Marotta - Analyst

  • Yes, that's pretty close. Jeff, do you have anything to add?

  • Jeff Lupinacci - EVP, CFO

  • Yes, that's accurate.

  • Steve Marotta - Analyst

  • Okay. The tax rate in fourth quarter was a little lower. What can our expectations be for 2015?

  • Jeff Lupinacci - EVP, CFO

  • For 2015, it's going to be high 20s, low 30s, and it was lower in Q4 in 2014 because our international revenue was a greater percentage of our totals and that's taxed at a lower rate, but I would use high 20s to low 30s for 2015.

  • Steve Marotta - Analyst

  • Okay. To put the finest points possible on this, the only change in the free cash flow calculation is the recognition of those notes receivable on launching the new JVs? Is that accurate?

  • Jeff Lupinacci - EVP, CFO

  • Yes, but the increase this time or is based on these notes that were paid out over three years from mostly from (inaudible) and their spin off called GBG, and also from the Disney, when they renewed, it gets paid over a period of four to five years.

  • Steve Marotta - Analyst

  • Last question is, you mentioned that there are some still additional markets that you would prefer to have a joint venture with as opposed to going direct. You can rattle a few of those off for us, what would be top of mind and if you could waive the magic wand and change them today, what would they be?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • We've been working really hard on Japan and we have a pretty big business there, and we think there's a couple of big opportunities there that we've been dealing with. It takes awhile in Japan. And also places like South Africa and a few other markets, smaller markets, but we see few opportunities, mostly in Japan and South Africa.

  • Steve Marotta - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Thank you.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Kernan from Cowen and Company.

  • John Kernan - Analyst

  • Can you help us out, what's embedded in your revenue guidance for 2015 in terms of the other revenue line item and any magnitude of sales for JV partners or re-measurements you might be seeing this year? I know there's an assumption of $0.53 non cash gain on a re-measurement of investments. Just trying to understand the licensing revenue and the other revenue that's embedded in your guidance.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • In 2015, we see that being a lower number than in 2014 and we see that probably going down anywhere from 20% to 30% on the other line, and we see continued growth in our international organic business is growing at a rate of 15%. Domestic close single digits, and we have the Peanuts movie is going to help to grow that international number. Also, in that number, or the growth number, you have about $20 million of additional Strawberry and Pony from the acquisitions. We do see the other line going lower this year and we do see growth organically, mostly coming internationally and a little bit domestic.

  • John Kernan - Analyst

  • So that 10% organic growth rate that you hinted out in your prior guidance for 2015 is still on the table?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes, mostly because of the international being we think over15.

  • John Kernan - Analyst

  • Okay. Then, Jeff, could you talk a little bit about the capitalization of the Company at this point. I know there's some incremental debt associated with the Strawberry Shortcake and Pony acquisitions and you have a $300 million convert maturity next year. How do you view your capacity to take on more debt to fund acquisitions at this point, to buy back stock, and, ultimately, how do you view the capital structure and the financing of the Company going forward now that you'll see the converts coming due in the coming years?

  • Jeff Lupinacci - EVP, CFO

  • Just to start off on the balance sheet, including the revolver that we drew down is (inaudible) million and we'll use $105 million of that for the Strawberry Shortcake funding. The great thing is we have the ability to upsize a securitization facility by adding additional brands in so that will give us a lot of capacity and dry powder as we look to upsize that securitization. Our net debt to EBITDA is 4.2 times, so from the leverage prospective, still comfortable. In terms of the converts, John, we're looking at that now and weighing all of our options. The first one doesn't come due until June 2016 and the next one is March of 2018, so they're not in the money now, but we're looking at that and we're figuring out what makes sense to evaluate the convert.

  • John Kernan - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. Just if I can sneak one more in. The $0.53 in non-cash gains related to the re-measurement of an investment. Can you help us understand where that's coming from?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • I believe that's going to be non GAAP'd out. That's from a GAAP prospective as we gain a lot of our JVs have the option where we can get control of them, mostly in the back half, which will give us these gains that we will non-GAAP out.

  • John Kernan - Analyst

  • And they'll be non-cash, obviously, right?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Correct.

  • John Kernan - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Beder from Wunderlich.

  • Eric Beder - Analyst

  • Obviously, you're seeing better deals in the M&A market. How is the M&A market looking for you guys now?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • That's always a tough question. We're working on a lot of exciting transactions, but we've also done that before and they didn't close, so we have a lot of deals we're working on, I guess could you call it a pipeline, a robust pipeline, but until you close deals, it doesn't mean anything. I think there's a lot of good opportunities and you know, especially what we're doing is the big opportunity globally.

  • We're working hard in a lot of our international markets to buy brands, whether it be in sports, and where we're excited about is sports and entertainment, which our last two acquisitions. We think both of those areas give us global a lot more than domestic. A lot of it is internationally focused, sports and entertainment, not to be conservative, but there's still a lot of money out there on the PE side, so the sellers are asking for a little bit more higher prices than we're used to paying, so that's what's been preventing a lot of wonderful deals that we would have liked closing because we're doing our best to stay disciplined.

  • Eric Beder - Analyst

  • Thanks. How do you handle the FX risk with your licensees?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • I'm sorry, which risk?

  • Eric Beder - Analyst

  • Foreign exchange.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Very little. Most of our deals are done in dollars. The only thing we got a little hurt last year, our Peanuts business, which is a very large business in Japan, we lost a couple million dollars on the end when it went from 80 to a hundred to 20. Generally, a lot of European deals we get paid in dollars and so we haven't had much foreign exchange risk.

  • Eric Beder - Analyst

  • And finally, when we look at Peanuts and the movie, are these deals that you're signing for the movie tied basically to the movie, or are these multi year deals where we'll see the impact? Obviously, more in 2016. How should we think about after the movie comes out, what is the potential of Peanuts?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • That's a great question. We talk about it everyday. We've gotten all of this wonderful, we're going to get all this share and market for the movie and we'll do our best to keep it. We're working on other initiatives, both digitally and incredible social. Seth has the largest Facebook page, higher than most Disney properties, I think maybe all, probably not frozen anymore, but we're working really hard to connect to the next generation, both digitally, and then, God willing, we're working on a television show for preschool, which we're hoping to get done in 2016, but Hollywood is a tricky place and you can't predict timing. Very important that we try to keep our share.

  • I think a lot of our partners that are giving us this big share, it's kind of let's see what happens. They're not promising it more than the back half of this year, but if we have great sell throughs, Peanuts is such an iconic property over the last 65 years, our specials have done better in the last couple of years than ever. We've got to reach out and get the kid, and hopefully the movie is going to help do that.

  • Eric Beder - Analyst

  • Great. Good luck for 2015.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thanks, Eric.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Liz Pierce from Brean Capital.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • Thanks, good morning. I wanted to circle back if I could on a couple of questions that had been asked. First, on the SG&A, I guess maybe more specifically when we look at that number and, granted, I understand the marketing, but almost a $16 million shift from Q4 last year. Is the normal run rate, I think you mentioned like a 50% rate, but I don't know was that EBITDA or was that the SG&A?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • That's the EBITDA. The shift is a combination of a few things. It's the combination of a lot of it is marketing there's also with the growth of Peanuts where we make a lower margin and we pay agencies and the family a rev share, that comes out of that number, which was substantial, and we've also started to staff up around the world. So it's a combination of three factors; marketing, which in Umbro, for instance, we're now sponsoring a premier league team and we have many other teams, Peanuts lower share, and the campaigns and just growing human capital around the world to help make sure that we our brands are maximized. We think it kind of levels out because as I mentioned, a lot of that marketing was weighted from third quarter into fourth quarter, but on the year we see EBITDA kind of similar, maybe a few ticks lower because of Peanuts in 2015, different than 2014.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • Okay, all right, that's helpful. And then in terms of Peanuts, again relating to another question. Has product shift sooner than expected or is it just the other factors that are contributing that you mentioned, like ABC and MetLife for the increase?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • I think you're going to start seeing great programs and marketing starting in May in a lot of big boxes and retailers around the world. It's not that much earlier, but besides for the benefits as we talked about with MetLife and with ABC.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • So essentially because I think you said last quarter kind of Q2 would be the timeframe when we would see product?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes, I'd say the back half of Q2 you'll start seeing it roll out and some of those are really spectacular.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • And then when you talked about these TV programs for preschool. Is that different than in the past you referred to as shorts as in programs, movie shorts for TV?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes. The short program is now actually on the air globally in Europe and other places and we're hoping to get America soon, but yes. The preschool series, that is in development and we have an amazing writer who is doing it, is different than the short stuff that is currently starting around the world now.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • Okay. So that is incremental?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • And then any update on Umbro in China and what's kind of happened in the quarter since you guys took that over?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • We're working with Li & Fung, GBG, and there's some incredible opportunities and we're setting the ground work to hopefully have a big, exciting business and lots of interesting alternatives that we hope to be able to announce soon.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • My final question on the men's business, it does seem that there was a little bit of an inflection. Do you think these brands have been particularly (inaudible) repositioned enough that they have broader appeal?

  • Jeff Lupinacci - EVP, CFO

  • The repositioning has made them brands more accessible and we think that's an important factor in reestablishing the brands.

  • Liz Pierce - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect. Thanks. Best of luck.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thank you, Liz.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jim Chartier from Monness, Crespi and heart.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • The first question I have, can you bridge your revenue and EPS guidance versus your prior guidance? Given the Strawberry Shortcake and Pony acquisitions I thought you could have raised it a little bit more.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes, it was a thought process. This was an opportunity as we learned in fourth quarter to invest a little more in our infrastructure. Our partners around the world are saying that some of our brands are not as well known in those territories as in America and that we have to invest, whether it be in new media or old media. So, a lot more global marketing when we enter a territory with our brands. And human capital. We thought this was an opportunity to take some of that and invest in infrastructure around the world.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • But in terms of revenues, it looked like Strawberry and Pony could have added somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million to revenues this year.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes, that's what we're projecting.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • So, you only raised your total revenue by like $5 million to $10 million.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes. We just believe that's the right thing to do based on what's happening around the world.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • That's an expectation for lower organic revenues, more conservative on your part? Is there an FX impact there?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Maybe a combination of both.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • You mentioned renewal for MetLife. Was there any upfront revenues similar to what you guys get with the ABC license in fourth quarter?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • No. We had a small marketing fee for a couple million dollars, but no up front money. It gets paid over a period of years.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • By the way, just to be clear. ABC, Disney, that also gets paid over a couple of years, but because it was written 65 years ago by Charles Schultz and we don't change it, there's accounting where you have to take the revenue up front.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • And then, what is your share count, what's embedded in the guidance for 2015?

  • Jeff Lupinacci - EVP, CFO

  • I would use for share count for 2015, 50 million shares.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • Okay. And were there any deal costs in fourth quarter of 2014 that will be in the first quarter of 2015 related to the recent acquisitions?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Maybe a little, but most of it will be in first quarter.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • Then the men's business on the (inaudible), can talk about the plan for Ed Hardy at Walmart and K-mart in 2015 and where you ended 2014 in terms of the number of doors?

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • I don't think specifically we called the number of doors by retailers, but we're comfortable to say that the door count for Ed Hardy will continue to grow at the max level of distribution in 2015.

  • Jim Chartier - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks and best of luck.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. That concludes our question and answer session for today. I would like to turn the conference back over to Neil Cole for any closing comments.

  • Neil Cole - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Iconix. As always, our team will be available for further questions throughout the day. Have a good one. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a good day.