ICL Group Ltd (ICL) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the ICL Analysts' Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I must advise you the call is being recorded today Wednesday, November 23, 2016. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Limor Gruber, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hello everyone in the room and on the line. Welcome and thank you for joining our third quarter 2016 conference call. Earlier today we filed our Q3 2016 report to the securities authorities and the stock exchanges in the US and in Israel. The reports as well as the press release are available on our website. For your reference, this meeting is being webcast live at www.icl-group.com. There will be a replay available a few hours after the meeting and a transcript will be available within 48 hours. The presentation that will be reviewed today was also filed to the securities authorities and is available on our website.

Please don't forget to review slide number 2 with the disclaimer. Our comments today contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. Today we will start with the presentation by Asher Grinbaum, our Acting CEO; followed by Kobi Altman, our CFO. In addition, ICL Executive Committee members are either here on the line and we will all be available for questions following the presentation. Asher, please.

Thank you, Limor, and good morning and good afternoon everyone. After 40 years of serving in several executive positions at ICL including over eight years as the Company's COO, four years as the COO of ICL Global Fertilizer segment, and nine years as the COO of ICL Global Industrial Product Segment; ICL Board of Directors asked me to serve as Acting CEO of the Company until the position is permanently staffed. ICL management has been working diligently to navigate a difficult fertilizer price environment and build momentum in our Specialty Solutions division. Our executive management team views the deployment of capital as one of our top responsibilities and it is critical that we make adjustments to our plans as market conditions evolve.

With this in mind, we consistently examine our work plan and investments in an effort to enhance our cash generation, optimize growth, and improve efficiency; all within the framework of our capital allocation strategy. During the third quarter we had several of these adjustments and after thorough examination, some [calls] were made. These decisions include the termination of the Harmonization project as we identified substantial risks related to the project's readiness, which significantly impacted with future cost and timeline. We also decided to terminate the Ethiopian potash project following the Ethiopian government's failure to provide the necessary infrastructure and regulatory framework. The return on this project simply did not justify their continuation and their termination is expected to save hundreds of millions of dollars in future CapEx.

Despite these necessary adjustments, our direction and paths in the future remains intact. We will continue to focus on improving our business balance by the diversification into specialty solutions and improving the competitiveness of our core assets, particularly at our Dead Sea operations. In my long career with ICL, I have always found these unique assets to be strength of our Company. Our mineral assets are the primary competitive advantage through our Specialty Solutions division where we have developed a wide range of proprietary and customer centric solutions, which provide compelling opportunities for innovation and decrease our reliance on commodity pricing. This is quite evident in the past few quarters as ICL's performance in a very difficult pricing environment has been quite resilient relative to the global fertilizers market.

Now, let's move to our third quarter results. In Q3 2016 we recorded a loss of $340 million due to the write-offs following the termination of the Harmonization and Ethiopian potash projects. On an adjusted basis despite the weak environment in the commodity markets, we demonstrated once again the resilience of our business model. Our Specialty Solution division recorded another quarter of strong performance and broad based growth across most of our end markets and 30% bottom line growth helping to offset more than a third of reduction we experienced in our Essential Minerals business. Implementation of efficiency measures continue to further improve the cost structure of our competitive mineral assets. We put a lot of focus on cash flow generation and reducing our net debt level.

Efficiency measures we have taken to manage our working capital and our disciplined CapEx approach help us to achieve another quarter of positive free cash flow in the amount of $96 million, higher record-setting and compared to a negative cash flow of $40 million in the third quarter of 2015. Our efforts have not gone unnoticed by the rating agency, which continue to appreciate our robust cash generation and our confidence that we will be able to improve our financial acquisition despite the tough situation in the commodity markets. Kobi will elaborate on that later on. Turning to development by division, I will begin with Essential Minerals. Following the signing of contracts with the Chinese and Indian customers, we took advantage of the inventory accumulated at the Dead Sea during the slow period as well as our logistical advantage, which are reflected in our quick time to market.

Efficiency improvements and the higher share of the Dead Sea in our sales volume resulted in about $16 reduction in the cost per tonne year-over-year and sequentially. As the result, the potash standalone profit increased by 25% versus Q2 2016 despite more than a $20 reduction in average FOB price. In phosphate, the stabilization and beginning of a recovery that we are experiencing in the potash market is still not visible. Price pressure continues and as a result, our Chinese joint venture recorded an operating loss of $16 million similar to the previous quarter as efficiency measures [rose up] with impact of price decreases. In our Specialty Solutions division; cost efficiencies, geographic expansion, and new produced products contributed to a 30% increase in profit while margins improved from 17% to 21%. In ICL Industrial Products, we continued to successfully shift to advanced products.

We also maintain our strong pricing in the bromine value chain and our superior service and quality have increased volume. And as I said, it is a strong fire safety season and cost reduction have mitigated the competitive pressure in the phosphoric acid market in the US and Europe. In Food Specialties, the successful integration of the dairy protein business as well as growth in demand for our new products resulted in bottom line growth. In Specialty Fertilizers, price pressure due to lower commodity fertilizer prices was partially offset by higher volumes of products sold in the specialty agriculture markets. Development over the past three years since we introduced our strategy through the importance of transferring our specialty business, our goal is to have a balanced business in the long term reaching equal contribution from both divisions to the operating income. With that, I would like to conclude and pass the floor to Kobi. Kobi, please.

Thank you, Asher. Good day, everyone. This was an eventful quarter for ICL in which we had to take some tough decisions, which resulted in the net loss we reported. Total adjustments in the quarter in the amount of $495 million include among others write-off of $282 million related to the termination of the Harmonization project, $202 million related to the termination of the potash project in Ethiopia, and $36 million related to prior year's royalties of which $26 million are in the financial expenses. Moving to our ongoing business now. We are pleased with our performance achievement in the Specialty Solutions division and in the cash generation we demonstrated. As in the first two quarters of the year, the third quarter continued to demonstrate the balancing effect of the growing specialty businesses amid the challenges of our Essential Minerals division, which is reflected in the difficult pricing environment.

The measures we have taken to reduce our costs and working capital along with our disciplined approach to CapEx have made it possible to record another quarter of positive free cash flow in contrast to the broader commodity sector, which resulted in a reduction in net debt. Looking at the fourth quarter, we expect the impact of unfavorable seasonality in a very challenging comparison due to an exceptionally strong Q4 2015 when we emerged from the strike to be reflected in the year-over-year performance. Nevertheless, we will continue with our efforts to achieve a positive operating cash flow in Q4 as well. On the sales level, increasing quantities of fertilizers and organic growth in our specialty products more than offset the negative impact of unfavorable commodity prices.

At the adjusted operating profit level, the impact of prices was more significant so higher quantities and lower expenses only partially offset the impact. G&A expenses totaled $80 million, 4% lower compared to Q3 2015. Excluding the expenses generated from the YPH joint venture, the reduction was 8%. This puts us on target to achieve a 10% reduction in overall G&A expenses versus 2015 with a further reduction targeted for 2017. Our CapEx level this quarter is consistent with our target not to exceed $650 million for the year. In this quarter we announced a dividend of $60 million or $0.05 per share, which brings us to a cash distribution of $220 million in 2016 or $0.17 per share. We believe this level represents a higher than average dividend yield consistent with our capital allocation approach to balance between solid dividend yield, reduce net debt, and drive long-term growth.

On slide 8, these two graphs demonstrate how the specialty business has provided a balancing effect to the volatility of Essential Minerals. The blue line represents our commodity businesses and red line represents our specialty division. And you can see here that the huge volatility on the commodity side has been balanced by the increasingly solid performance of the specialty businesses. This highlights why ICL is in a unique position as we differ from most competitors. Our business diversification is a big advantage especially during downturns and volatility that characterizes the ag cycle. We believe that our Specialty Solutions businesses will continue to act as a stabilizing factor as we continue to focus on commercial excellence, new product, geographical expansion, and improved competitiveness.

Turning to slide 9 for a closer look at our Essential Minerals segment. The late signing of potash contracts in China and India resulted in increased shipments to these markets while low pricing environment of both potash and phosphate negatively impacted the division's performance. This was partially offset by lower raw material and energy prices. The division results benefited from lower expenses partially due to the efficiency efforts. We continue to focus on what we can control in a very volatile commodity market. Turning to slide 10, we had a very different picture in our Specialty Solutions division. In the third quarter, three out of four of the divisions unit had a positive contribution to sales and operating profit.

Growth came from the bromine derivatives, dairy protein, and more than 100% increase in new product sales in our Food Specialties, fire safety products in our advanced additives, and increased sales to specialty agriculture in our Specialty Fertilizers unit. Lower commodity prices had two offsetting influences, a negative impact on the sales prices of the value-added specialty products and lower raw material cost for the division. The result is an increase of nearly 30% in the division's adjusted operating profit. Turning to slide 11. As we approach the completion of our current efficiency initiatives, we are satisfied with the accomplishments which resulted in a contribution of $400 million compared to 2013. This quarter we were able to reduce the full cost per tonne of potash. ICL Dead Sea is one the world's best-in-class potash asset and we continue to improve its competitive advantage.

Our bromine operations, especially in Israel but also globally, are showing cost improvements as well. We continue to work on future efficiencies. And finally on slide 12, I would like to provide an update on our balance sheet and financial position. As a result of lower commodity prices, credit ratings in our industry have been under pressure. While our international credit rating was reduced by one notch to BBB minus, we were pleased to maintain our investment grade rating with a stable outlook. Notably we expect this will have no impact on future financing expenses. Maintaining the local rating at ilAA provides us with a strong advantage. This provides us with the necessary financial flexibility even as we work diligently to reduce our aggregate debt level. Thank you for your time and we will be happy to take your questions now.

Thank you very much. (Operator Instructions) Milan Shah, BMO Capital Markets.

This is Milan for Joel. You talk about potash costs, they are quite impressive and obviously quite low in the quarter. Is this the right level to think about through Q4 and how does this start to change as you wind down the UK potash production?

Our division manager will be able to answer this.

If I understood your question correct, you ask about UK mine. So as we informed you in the past, we are estimating that we are in exhausting situation in the mine in UK. But just to emphasize, in UK we are in transformation from potash production to polysulfate production. And here in the polysulfate, we are penetrating successfully to the market and this year we will double the quantity compared to previous year. In regard to the cost per tonne, we will continue to work and to apply all the methods which we know under the umbrella of the operation excellence in order to reduce our cost in all the sites. So, this we do in our site in the Dead Sea and Kobi showed how we are reducing the cost. We are doing the same in UK and we are doing the same in Spain. So all in all, operation excellence in this segment is one of the main activity which we are busy with.

Okay. And then on the polysulfate you talk about doubling volumes, what were volumes like in Q3 and what sort of price are you selling for right now?

As I said, polysulfate we are progressing nicely according to the plan and I cannot talk about specific quantities, but we are doubling the quantity from year-to-year. Prices depends on the quantity you buy, but it's about $100 per tonne.

(Operator Instructions) Gilad Alper, Excellence.

So, my question is really kind of very hard to do I guess. The strategy of the previous CEO for better or for worse it was clear; basically cut costs, streamline as much as possible, and then do aggressive expansion outside of Israel because of the issues that ICL is having with the Israeli State. So part of what he did went well, part of what he did apparently didn't go so well, and he scrapped it. So, the question is what is the strategy now because costs have been cut and are still being cut, the stalemate with the State of Israel continues, apparently you can't develop significant potash sources outside of Israel, China is apparently still losing money so there is lot of limitations on how much money you can spend? So, what is it that is left to do? Is there any way to come up with a new strategy something that's going to significantly change your situation or is it just sitting and waiting for the market to reverse and for the State of Israel to change its mind? Thanks.

Hezi, our Executive VP for Strategy, he will take your question.

So Gilad, when we announced about ICL strategy in 2012 next step forward, we defined that we would like to grow in the core businesses; agriculture, food, and engineered material. At the same time we declared that we would like to exit the non-core activity, which we have done very successfully. We would like to welcome cost leadership in our mineral chain and we are doing that and to have one global ICL. So if you see the development of ICL over the last four years, we are actually working on this strategy and this is the future direction. So moving forward, we would like to grow the mineral business to make it more stronger on the upstream position and to grow the downstream application of ICL. So the core competency of ICL from specialty minerals to downstream application, this is the future direction and we actually can see that in the results which make us very confident that we are continuing with that.

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Benson, Citi.

Can you give us some more detail on the bromine business and the outlook you expect from that? Can you give us any sense, you talked about very strong volumes last year and so not expecting so strong this year, what you're expecting just for fourth quarter in the potash is likely to be? And are there any signs, any crystal ball gazing that gives you ideas about how the Chinese are likely to approach their needs in 2017? I understand the long-term plan on the phosphates business is to get into specialties, but what is the plan in the short term to stem the losses in the Chinese joint venture? Thanks.

This is Charlie Weidhas and I'm filling in for Mark Volmer and will address the question on bromine. The market right now is very stable and stable in a good place. Our pricing strategy continues to go well. We see demand in our end markets including plastics and Merquel have been very stable, in fact strong in some areas. And as the year has gone on, we have seen a slight improvement in demand even in the oil and gas business. So when we look at bromine in general, we see a very stable and profitable business going forward. What I'll do is I'll now hand it over to Nissim to address the potash question.

China and India were late this year signing the contracts so obviously quantities to China will be lower compared to the year before. This in my opinion will help the Chinese to do the next contract. Anyhow the rumors from the market are that the supply chain is not so full as it used to be in 2015 and this also will support early Chinese signing contract. In regards to our joint venture in China, I would like to remind again that our strategy is to move this joint venture from commodity type to a specialty type and we stick to the strategy and will continue to do it. In parallel we work to improve the efficiencies and the productivity of this site in order to make it much more competitive than today.

Okay. When do you expect be in profit in the joint venture?

It will take two to three years I believe.

(Operator Instructions) Stephanie Bothwell, Bank of America.

Really I just wanted to ask about the European markets whether or not post the end of Q3 you've seen any positive pricing momentum on MOP on sales into Europe? My second question was on China. We're hearing that the Chinese are lobbying for removal of the export tariff on NPKs, I wonder whether or not you had a view on that and potential impact it could have on global trade flows of MOP going forward? Thanks.

In the last few weeks we see positive momentum in Europe and after price declining, we see price increases in different places. We also announced in a few places increase of prices and this is a positive momentum for us.

Your question on China exports, I would say that China is self-sufficient so I don't see here a big difference.

But on the NPK side if there was removal of the export tariff, do you think there will be any significant implication on global trade flows of MOP?

Please remember, the logistic cost is a major issue and the prices outside of China in this moment are not so good to absorb more material. So, I do not see here a big impact in my opinion.

Okay. And just going back to your earlier comments on Europe. Can you give me an idea of what sort of price momentum you're seeing? You noted increases in prices, can you give me some kind of quantum on euro per tonne?

I cannot say exactly the price per tonne because it's different from place to place, from customer to customer, quantities. There are many factors here, but the momentum is positive and I see EUR10, EUR20 per tonne more in the product prices.

(inaudible), Deutsche Bank.

One actually is a follow up to a point that was made a few minutes ago. Question number one is about Specialty Solutions and how much seasonality there is in the [margin of] sales in this segment? And question number two relates to the JV in China. You mentioned that you don't expect any profit in the JV over the next two to three years so essentially just to confirm no positive contribution at EBIT level from that JV going forward, is that correct? Thank you.

This is Charlie Weidhas, I'll address the question around specialty. If you look at the total portfolio, the area where you see the most seasonality is in our advanced additives business and this is related to our wild fire safety business. Most of this is occurring in the United States on the West Coast and it occurs during the hot months. So, that's probably the area with the highest amount of volatility.

Now with regards to the JV in China, as I said, we will transform this site from commodity to specialty. This will take around two to two-and-half years and then based on what we know on partly commodity and partly specialty, we will see much better results and we'll be out of the way of the commodities. Now there is a scenario that if the positive momentum of prices will go up, then we see much more and faster good results. So if you follow what is going on in the supply side in the phosphates market, there are some things which are in place and this can improve the price momentum in the commodities and then the results will be much better.

Ella Fried, Bank Leumi.

Can you tell us in terms of CapEx what to expect and also relating to the last question in terms of including the investments in China that are still expected let's say if the price environment remains on the current levels?

Ella, this is Kobi. I hope I got right your second question. With regards to the first one, CapEx we expect this year to close at around $650 million that we indicated. Obviously the discontinuation of the Harmonization and the potash project in Africa will save a lot of CapEx for the next few years so we expect the CapEx for next year to be lower than that amount. And with regard to the joint venture in China, if I understood correctly the questions; as Nissim indicated, we are on our journey to transform this operation from a pure commodity to a balanced model of commodity and specialty, but this does not require a very significant amount of capital investment.

(Operator Instructions) Thank you very much. There are no further questions today. Please continue.

Thank you, Steve. Thank you everyone for joining us today. We will be happy to discuss further so please don't hesitate and we're looking forward to talk to you and see you soon. Good day.

Thank you very much. That does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.