Hyster-Yale Inc (HY) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Hyster-Yale Materials' third quarter '24 conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The call replay will be available post-call by dialing 888-660-35 and punch in code 1202.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加海斯特-耶魯材料公司 24 年第三季電話會議。（操作員指示）此通話於 2024 年 11 月 5 日星期二錄製。通話結束後，撥打 888-660-35 並輸入代碼 1202 即可收聽通話重播。

I would now like to call over Christina Kmetko. Please go ahead.

現在我想請克里斯蒂娜·克梅特科發言。請繼續。

I'm Christina Kmetko, and I'm responsible for investor relations. This morning, we published our third quarter 2024 results and filed our time queue. These documents are available on the Hysteria website. We're recording this webcast, and a replay will be on our website later this afternoon. The replay will remain available for approximately 12 months. I'd like to remind you that our remarks today, including answers to any questions, will include comments related to expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements due to the wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release, 10-Q, and other SEC filings. We may not update these forward-looking statements until our next quarterly earnings conference call. Our presenters today are Al Rankin, Executive Chairman, Rajiv Prasad, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Minder, our Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. With the formalities out of the way, let me turn the call over to Rajiv to begin.

我是 Christina Kmetko，負責投資人關係。今天早上，我們發布了 2024 年第三季的業績並提交了時間隊列。這些文件可在 Hysteria 網站上找到。我們正在錄製這次網路直播，重播將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上發布。重播將保留約 12 個月。我想提醒您，我們今天的評論，包括對任何問題的回答，將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的評論，因此是前瞻性的陳述。由於我們的收益報告、10-Q 和其他 SEC 文件中描述了廣泛的風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異。我們可能不會在下次季度收益電話會議之前更新這些前瞻性聲明。今天的演講者是執行主席 Al Rankin、總裁兼執行長 Rajiv Prasad 和高級副總裁、財務長兼財務主管 Scott Minder。禮節說完了，現在讓我把電話轉給拉吉夫開始。

Thanks, Christy. Good morning, all, and thank you for joining us today. I'll start by providing my operational perspective and some commentary on our markets. Scott will follow with the detailed financial results and outlook Al will close the call with his perspective, and then we'll open it up for your questions. Before I discuss the quarter, I'd like to comment on the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton last month. These hurricanes were nothing short of devastating. Thankfully, all of our employees in the southeastern United States are safe. Furthermore, daily operations were not directly affected. We've worked with our dealers, suppliers and communities in the affected areas to provide support where needed. Now I'll move on to our Q3 results. I'm pleased to say that we executed well in what is normally a seasonally lower third quarter, primarily related to European plant shutdowns. Our current quarter results are also being compared against an exceptionally strong prior year. Once again, we generated strong product margins and delivered year-over-year revenue growth. This was led by the America's Lyft truck and Bolls-only businesses. However, third-quarter financial results were below our expectations. Let me explain why. In short, we did not achieve our expected production volumes. Our manufacturing Operations were hampered by supply chain constraints and a handful of product introduction issues. This resulted in missed sales, creating manufacturing inefficiencies and increasing costs. While our results were lower than planned, the company's foundation remained solid. Pricing and unit margins continue well above target levels. Operating expenses remained in check, and below our expectations. We'll continue to balance expenditures with growth needs moving forward. Now I'll share our market views and its impact on our business. Based on global market industry data and internal estimates, the company believes that the Q3-Q24 global lift truck market declined moderately from prior year levels. The rate of decrease accelerated compared to Q2 2024 as more regions saw a deterioration. For the fall, global market is estimated to decline further, with the Americas and EMEA decreasing at a faster pace and JPEG generally stabilizing. These below-trend market booking levels are expected to balance out the significantly above-trend market booking rates experienced between 2021 and 2023, returning the market to more normalized long-term growth rates. In 2025, we expect the global lift truck market to decrease modestly year-over-year, with a first-half decline mostly offsetting a second-half Regionally, a moderate decrease in the EMEA market is likely to be partly offset by a stable America's market level. Within the Americas, our largest region, North America, is expected to increase moderately in 2025 compared to 2024, with improvements occurring in the second half of the year. This improvement is expected to be mostly offset by a decrease in We are working diligently to offset the effects from these market decreases on our business through share gains and sales of new advanced technology products. However, the company's business has been negatively impacted in 2024. Year-over-year dollar-value factory booking decreased 36% to $370 million in Q3. sequentially booking dropped by 3%, broadly suggesting stabilization at a lower rate. While our global bookings were down compared to Q2, dollar value bookings improved 8% in the Americas, largely due to increased volume of higher-priced Class 1 trucks and the company's new modular scalable Class 5 trucks. EMEA and JPEG offset this improvement with a combined 19% drop. Our long-term strategic initiatives are gaining momentum. In warehouse applications, we continue to make inroads with our advanced technologies and strong product lineup. We expect Q3 2024 Americas and EMEA bookings to reflect warehouse market share gain when final industry data are released. Additional gains are expected in Q4 and 2025. Our modular and scalable products are also expected to increase market share in all regions as we broaden this product portfolio lineup to include Class 1 electric trucks in 2025. The work continues to aggressively and profitably extend our roughly 7-month backlog, while we continue to focus on increasing our bookings and our share. We're also focused on aligning our production schedule to match market demand. At this point, new bookings will fill open 2025 production slots, which are in the second half of the year. The combination of rising market share and new bookings, along with the company's $2.3 billion backlog, should help support the business. until market levels improve in the second half of 2025. This sets the stage for higher production levels in 2026. Overall, we believe the current backlog should support 2025 shipment levels that are generally in line with 2024. That said, global production levels may moderate in 2025 without market share improvements or share gains. For much of the last two years, we've benefited from strong pricing, tailwinds, and a significant order backlog. This led to product margins well above our targeted levels. Looking ahead, we're focused on maintaining competitively priced products at or above targeted margin levels. We expect to achieve our targets with continued new model introductions and ongoing cost and pricing discipline. I'll add one final comment on the market. The lift truck industry is very resilient and has gone through similar cycles in the past. We plan to push through this latest downturn while still delivering on our customers' promises to provide optimized product solutions and exceptional customer care. We'll continue to execute our strategic initiatives and key projects to fulfill these promises. I encourage you to learn more about these initiatives and projects in our updated Investor Deck, currently available on the Hyderabad website. I'll turn the call over to Scott to provide a more detailed financial results outlook. Scott?

謝謝，克里斯蒂。大家早安，感謝你們今天參加我們的節目。我將首先提供我的營運觀點和對我們市場的一些評論。斯科特將隨後介紹詳細的財務結果和展望，艾爾將以他的觀點結束通話，然後我們將開始回答您的問題。在討論本季之前，我想先評論一下上個月颶風海倫和米爾頓的影響。這些颶風無疑是極具破壞性的。值得慶幸的是，我們在美國東南部的所有員工都很安全。此外，日常營運並未受到直接影響。我們與受災地區的經銷商、供應商和社區合作，提供所需的支援。現在我將介紹我們的第三季業績。我很高興地說，在通常因季節性因素而業績較低的第三季度，我們表現良好，這主要與歐洲工廠關閉有關。我們目前季度的業績也將與異常強勁的去年同期進行比較。我們再次創造了強勁的產品利潤率並實現了收入同比增長。其中，引領這一趨勢的是美國的 Lyft 卡車和 Bolls 專屬業務。然而，第三季的財務表現低於我們的預期。讓我解釋一下原因。簡而言之，我們沒有達到預期的生產量。我們的製造業務受到供應鏈限制和少量產品引進問題的阻礙。這導致銷售損失、製造效率低下和成本增加。雖然我們的業績低於預期，但公司的基礎仍然穩固。定價和單位利潤率繼續遠高於目標水準。營業費用維持可控，低於我們的預期。我們將繼續平衡支出和未來的成長需求。現在我將分享我們的市場觀點及其對我們業務的影響。根據全球市場產業數據和內部估計，該公司認為第三季至2024季全球堆高機市場較去年同期略有下降。由於更多地區情況惡化，與 2024 年第二季相比，下降速度加快。秋季，全球市場預計將進一步下滑，其中美洲和EMEA地區的下滑速度將加快，而JPEG整體將趨於穩定。預計這些低於趨勢的市場預訂水準將平衡 2021 年至 2023 年期間明顯高於趨勢的市場預訂率，使市場恢復到更正常的長期成長率。到 2025 年，我們預計全球堆高機市場將同比小幅下降，上半年的下降幅度將基本抵消下半年的下降幅度。在美洲地區，我們最大的地區北美洲預計 2025 年將較 2024 年溫和成長，且下半年將有所改善。預計這項改善將被市場的下滑所抵消。然而，該公司的業務在2024年受到了負面影響。第三季工廠訂單金額較去年同期下降 36% 至 3.7 億美元。預訂量較上季下降 3%，普遍顯示預訂量在較低水準上趨於穩定。雖然我們的全球預訂量與第二季度相比有所下降，但美洲地區的美元價值預訂量增長了 8%，這主要歸因於高價位 1 級卡車和公司新型模組化可擴展 5 級卡車的數量增加。EMEA 和 JPEG 則以 19% 的總降幅抵消了這項改善。我們的長期策略舉措正在加速推進。在倉庫應用領域，我們憑藉先進的技術和強大的產品陣容不斷取得進展。我們預計，當最終行業數據發佈時，2024 年第三季美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的預訂量將反映倉庫市場份額的成長。預計第四季和 2025 年還將實現額外成長。隨著我們在 2025 年擴大此產品組合陣容以包括 1 級電動卡車，我們的模組化和可擴展產品也有望在所有地區增加市場份額。這項工作繼續積極且有利可圖地延長了我們大約 7 個月的積壓訂單，同時我們繼續專注於增加訂單量和份額。我們也致力於調整生產計劃以滿足市場需求。此時，新的訂單將填補下半年開放的 2025 個生產時段。市場份額的上升和新訂單的增加，加上公司 23 億美元的積壓訂單，應該有助於支撐業務。直到 2025 年下半年市場水準改善。這為2026年更高的產量奠定了基礎。總體而言，我們認為目前的積壓訂單應能支撐 2025 年的出貨量，該水準與 2024 年大致一致。儘管如此，2025 年全球產量水準可能會放緩，而市場份額不會改善或增加。在過去兩年的大部分時間裡，我們都受益於強勁的定價、順風和大量的訂單積壓。這使得產品利潤率遠高於我們的目標水準。展望未來，我們專注於將具競爭力的產品價格維持在目標利潤水準或以上。我們希望透過不斷推出新車型以及持續的成本和定價紀律來實現我們的目標。我還想對市場做最後一則評論。堆高機產業具有很強的彈性，過去也經歷過類似的周期。我們計劃渡過最近的經濟衰退，同時繼續履行對客戶的承諾，提供優化的產品解決方案和卓越的客戶服務。我們將繼續執行我們的策略性舉措和重點項目來實現這些承諾。我鼓勵您在我們最新的投資者平台（目前可在海得拉巴網站上查閱）中了解有關這些舉措和項目的更多資訊。我將把電話轉給斯科特，以提供更詳細的財務業績展望。史考特？

Thanks. As Rajiv mentioned, our Q3 2024 results were solid. Consolidated revenue of $1 billion grew year-over-year, while operating profit of $33 million declined compared to an exceptionally strong prior year. Net income was $17 million, decreasing from $36 million in Q3 2023. I'll cover the results by segment to provide color on the performance drivers. Lift truck revenues grew 2% versus prior year due to higher average sales prices and a favorable sales mix shift. America's sales volumes increased, but were more than offset by a decline in EMEA volumes. Due to our ongoing pricing discipline, average sales prices rose 25% year-over-year. Sales mix improved, mainly due to increased sales of Class 1 and Class 4 trucks, as well as higher priced, higher capacity Class 5 trucks in the Americas. Unit volumes declined year-over-year in EMEA, primarily due to lower production rates. This was a consequence of supply chain challenges and shipping delays on new products. Quarter over quarter, revenues decreased in the Americas and EMEA, as seasonal plant shutdowns led to lower Q3 production rates. Lyft Trucks' Q3 operating profit was $39 million, declining 40% against the strong prior year period. Lift truck product margins remained well above targeted levels due to continued favorable sales prices and product mix. However, these benefits were more than offset by lower margins on parts and fleet services. Specifically, our parts sales have shifted from extensive repairs on aged units to more preventative maintenance on newer units. The latter generates lower margins. Lip truck gross profit declined by 7% year-over-year due to overall sales margins, as well as higher freight costs and other cost-inflation-related variances. These factors, combined with increased operating expenses, led to the operating profit decline. With regards to operating expenses, year-over-year, these expenses increased due to investments required to accelerate our key strategic initiatives We've added sales and marketing staff to help launch new products and technologies that support our share gain efforts. We're investing in new information systems that create a more efficient and seamless customer-facing experience that will launch in 2025. In addition to these investments, employee-related expenses rose due to wage increases and higher incentive compensation related to our strong 2024 year-to-date results. Looking at profitability by geographic segment, America's gross profit declined modestly with improved pricing and higher sales volumes offset by increased freight costs and other cost-inflation-related variances. Freight costs remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. The US dockworker strike in Q3 added to this challenge. As a result of our US manufacturing locations, we rely heavily on East Coast ports. We took proactive steps to mitigate potential problems, including expedited shipping and container unloading to minimize the impact on our operations. These actions came at a higher price. In Q3, EMEA experienced an operating loss compared to prior period profits due to lower unit volumes and unfavorable pricing. Operating expenses were higher largely to support future business growth. The increased year-over-year operating loss in our JPIC segment was mainly attributable to reduced unit volumes partly offset by lower operating expenses. Beyond the lift truck business, Baldoni's Q3 results were very strong. Revenues increased 5% while operating profit improved by more than 100% over prior year due to increased sales volumes of higher margin products. These additional volumes allow Baldoni's manufacturing plants to run more efficiently, thus lowering costs year-over-year. Baldoni's profits increased sequentially, despite an expected seasonal revenue decline. There's one additional item to mention for Baldoni. In July, the business acquired a majority equity interest in one of its machining suppliers. This includes an option to purchase the remaining portion in future periods. This $2 million acquisition is an important investment. It helps to ensure the supply of competitively priced, high-quality components. Its results were included in Balzoni's Q3 financials. Moving to Nivera, where the business remains focused on increasing its sales pipeline. The hydrogen fuel cell industry continues to face slow customer adoption. This is due to ongoing hydrogen supply constraints and delayed vehicle fuel cell development programs. Despite Nuvera's roll-up demonstration pipeline, these industry constraints are delaying Nuvera's bookings and reducing its shipments. As a result, Nuvera's Q3 revenues decreased to $0.3 million from $1.5 million in Q3 2023. Nuvera's revenue increased compared to Q2 levels. Nuvera's operating loss exceeded prior year largely due to increased utility expenses and facility lease costs. In addition, Nuvera incurred a $0.2 million severance charge for headcount reductions needed to right-size the organization given the slower hydrogen product adoption rates. Next, I'll cover the company's tax position. Our Q3 income tax rate was 37%. This is higher than 2024's forecasted annual rate of 32%. Our third quarter tax expense and tax rate include a year-to-date true-up adjustment necessary to reflect the increased estimated annual effective income tax rate. 2024's year-to-date effective income tax rate of 32% is above the prior year's 27% rate. The elevated 2024 rate largely relates to the ongoing capitalization of research and development costs for US tax purposes combined with the ramifications from the company's US valuation allowance position. This combination also affected 2023's tax rate, but the impact was partly offset by our ability to utilize US net operating losses during the 2023 calendar year. Looking beyond the income statement, We generated $70 million of cash from operations during Q3, and the company's financial leverage continued to improve. Our debt-to-capital ratio of 46% improved by 500 basis points from the June 30th level. The combination of lower debt and increased cash drove a significant improvement. As the business generates more free cash, will continue to follow the capital allocation framework laid out at our November 2023 Investor Day. In the third quarter, we used free cash to further reduce financial leverage, fuel growth-related capital expenditures, and fund Baldoni's small acquisition. At quarter-end, the company had unused borrowing capacity of $262 million, compared with $217 million as of June 30. We continue to focus on reducing working capital, particularly through inventory efficiency. However, total inventory increased over Q2 2024 levels, in part due to trucks being completed, but not shipped, by quarter end, as well as shipping delays on new products. Working capital represented 21% of sales in Q3 as a result of these elevated inventory levels and reduced annualized sales in the seasonally lower third quarter. I'll shift to our Q4 outlook and make some brief comments on 2025. Looking ahead, we expect Q4 consolidated revenues and net income to be roughly comparable to robust prior year levels. Consolidated full-year 2024 financial results are still expected to improve significantly year-over-year, primarily driven by the robust first-half results. We believe the company's strong 2023 and 2024 financial performance benefited significantly from actions we've taken over the past few years to position the company for profitable growth and to deliver on our promises to provide optimal solutions for our customers and deliver exceptional customer care. Overall, these longer-term product development and process improvement projects initiated in prior years are leading to a more efficient and flexible organization. We're now better positioned to further optimize our operations and costs. As a result, in October 2024, we concluded that new programs should be undertaken in the Americas to lower costs, optimize our manufacturing footprint, reduce lead times, and better position the company for improved margins and further growth. We expect to incur future restructuring charges as we fully execute these manufacturing improvement programs over the next 12 to 36 months. The details of these programs are still being finalized. An estimate of charges and expected benefits has not yet been fully determined. We'll provide more details with our Q4 earnings results. For the lift truck business, we anticipate Q4 revenues and operating profit to be roughly comparable year-over-year. Strong product margins from the shipment of higher-priced, higher-margin backlog units are anticipated to be offset by higher freight and material costs and increased operating expenses. The company's solid backlog and ongoing pricing discipline are providing a foundation that limits the negative impact of the current lower-demand environment on our results. Looking forward to 2025, our backlog is expected to decrease toward more normalized levels in the first half of the year. This will likely lead to a moderate decrease in Lyft Trucks' full-year revenue versus 2024. The revenue decline, combined with anticipated cost inflation and modestly higher operating expenses, are expected to significantly lower 2025 operating profit compared to an exceptionally strong 2024. For Balzoni, we anticipate lower Q4 revenues compared to prior year as the phase-out of legacy components for the lift truck business exceeds attachment sales growth. Increased costs for material, freight, and employee-related items will likely moderate Balzoni's improved product margins. As a result, operating profit is likely to decrease compared to prior year. In 2025, operating profit is expected to improve year-over-year despite lower sales volumes due to the continued phase-out of low-margin component sales. At Nuvera, the business remains focused on increasing customer product demonstrations and orders. This includes its new portable hydrogen fuel cell-powered generator, which began dealer and customer demonstrations in September. Q4 revenues are expected to increase year-over-year and should be comparable to Q3 2024 levels. Increased product development costs will likely drive a modest operating loss increase compared to the prior year. Nuvera expects improved year-over-year revenues in 2025 due to higher fuel cell sales. The benefits of these higher sales are expected to be partly tempered by a modest year-over-year increase in new product development costs. Nuvera's overall operating results should improve in 2025 compared with prior year, in part due to benefits realized from the reduction in force action taken in Q3 2024. We continue to make progress toward our 7% operating profit margin target across the business cycle for the Lyft truck and Baldoni businesses. We exceeded this target in Q1 and Q2 of 2024, both periods of robust demand. During this current soft demand environment, our extended backlog of higher margin trucks continues to provide a shock absorber for our financial results. We expect production levels to continue to outpace bookings for the next several quarters, bringing our backlog to more normalized levels by mid-2025. Bookings are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, driving improved production levels in 2026. In the meantime, strategic actions to reduce costs, improve productivity, and deliver high-quality, highly customizable products made consistently around the globe should enable us to be more profitable in all phases of the business cycle. These actions are ongoing and will gain momentum in the coming quarters. As a result of the factors I've mentioned, we expect lower 2025 revenues and a significant operating profit and net income decrease at the consolidated level compared to robust 2024 levels. We've made progress on reducing the impact of cyclicality on our business and have plans in place to further stabilize our results in cyclically lower periods. We'll continue to focus on improving our cash conversion rate, primarily by reducing inventory levels. Beyond working capital, we expect 2024 capital expenditures to be $49 million, down from our initial projection of $87 million. While we still anticipate meaningful growth in efficiency investments, liquidity is our top priority. 2024's cash flow from operations should increase significantly compared to the prior year. In 2025, cash flow from operations is expected to remain strong but decline from 2024's level. As we continue to generate cash, will follow our disciplined capital allocation framework to reduce leverage, make strategic investments that support profitable growth, and generate strong returns for our shareholders. Now, I'll turn the call over to our Executive Chairman for his closing comments. Al?

謝謝。正如拉吉夫所提到的，我們 2024 年第三季的業績穩健。綜合收入年增 10 億美元，但營業利潤 3,300 萬美元與強勁的上一年相比有所下降。淨收入為 1700 萬美元，較 2023 年第三季的 3,600 萬美元有所下降。我將按部分介紹結果，以提供對效能驅動因素的說明。由於平均銷售價格上漲和銷售組合有利轉變，堆高機收入較上年增長了 2%。美洲地區的銷售量增加，但被歐洲、中東和非洲地區銷售量的下降所抵消。由於我們持續的定價紀律，平均銷售價格年增了 25%。銷售組合有所改善，主要由於美洲地區 1 級和 4 級卡車銷量增加，以及價格更高、容量更大的 5 級卡車銷量增加。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的單位銷售量較去年同期下降，主要原因是生產力較低。這是供應鏈挑戰和新產品運輸延遲造成的結果。與上一季相比，美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收入有所下降，因為季節性工廠停工導致第三季生產力下降。Lyft Trucks 第三季營業利潤為 3,900 萬美元，較去年同期的強勁表現下降 40%。由於持續優惠的銷售價格和產品組合，堆高機產品的利潤率仍遠高於目標水準。然而，這些好處被零件和車隊服務的利潤率較低所抵消。具體來說，我們的零件銷售已經從對老舊設備的大面積維修轉向對新設備的預防性維護。後者的利潤較低。由於整體銷售利潤率、運費上漲以及其他與成本通膨相關的差異，Lip Truck 的毛利年減了 7%。這些因素加上營業費用的增加，導致營業利潤下降。就營運費用而言，與去年同期相比，這些費用的增加是由於加速我們的關鍵策略舉措所需的投資，我們增加了銷售和行銷人員，以幫助推出支持我們提高份額努力的新產品和新技術。我們正在投資新的資訊系統，以創造更有效率、更無縫的客戶體驗，該系統將於 2025 年推出。除了這些投資之外，由於工資上漲以及與我們 2024 年迄今強勁的業績相關的更高激勵薪酬，與員工相關的費用也隨之增加。從各地區獲利能力來看，美洲航空的毛利略有下降，原因是定價提高和銷售量增加，但被運費增加和其他與成本通膨相關的差異所抵消。由於持續的地緣政治緊張局勢，運費仍然居高不下。美國第三季的碼頭工人罷工加劇了這項挑戰。由於我們的製造基地位於美國，因此我們嚴重依賴東海岸港口。我們採取了積極措施來減輕潛在問題，包括加快運輸和貨櫃卸貨，以最大限度地減少對我們營運的影響。這些行動的代價更高。第三季度，由於銷售量較低及定價不利，EMEA 地區與前期利潤相比出現營業虧損。營業費用增加主要是為了支持未來業務成長。我們 JPIC 部門的年比營業虧損增加，主要歸因於單位產量下降，但營業費用下降部分抵消了這一影響。除了堆高機業務之外，Baldoni 的第三季業績也非常強勁。由於高利潤產品銷量增加，收入成長了 5%，而營業利潤比上年增長了 100% 以上。這些額外的產量使得Baldoni的製造工廠運作得更有效率，逐年降低成本。儘管預計會出現季節性收入下降，但 Baldoni 的利潤仍較上季成長。還有一件事要提一下巴多尼。7月份，該公司收購了其一家機械加工供應商的多數股權。這包括在未來期間購買剩餘部分的選項。此次200萬美元的收購案是一項重要投資。它有助於確保具有價格競爭力的高品質零件的供應。其業績已納入 Balzoni 的第三季財務報表中。轉向 Nivera，業務重點仍集中在增加其銷售管道。氫燃料電池產業持續面臨客戶接受度緩慢的問題。這是由於持續的氫氣供應限制和汽車燃料電池開發計劃的延遲。儘管 Nuvera 擁有滾動演示管道，但這些行業限制正在推遲 Nuvera 的預訂並減少其出貨量。結果，Nuvera 的第三季營收從 2023 年第三季的 150 萬美元下降至 30 萬美元。Nuvera 的營收與第二季相比有所增加。Nuvera 的營運虧損超過上年，主要由於公用事業費用和設施租賃成本的增加。此外，由於氫產品採用率較低，Nuvera 還因調整組織規模所需裁員而支付了 20 萬美元的遣散費。接下來，我將介紹該公司的稅務狀況。我們第三季的所得稅率為 37%。這高於 2024 年預測的 32% 年增長率。我們第三季的稅費和稅率包括年初至今的實際調整，以反映增加的預期年度有效所得稅率。 2024 年迄今的實際所得稅率為 32%，高於去年的 27%。2024 年稅率的提高主要與美國稅收目的的持續研發成本資本化以及該公司在美國的估值準備金狀況的影響有關。這個組合也影響了 2023 年的稅率，但我們在 2023 年曆年利用美國淨經營虧損的能力部分抵銷了這一影響。除了損益表之外，我們在第三季從營運中創造了 7,000 萬美元的現金，公司的財務槓桿繼續改善。我們的負債資本比率為 46%，較 6 月 30 日的水準改善了 500 個基點。債務減少和現金增加的結合推動了業績的顯著改善。隨著業務產生更多的自由現金，將繼續遵循我們在 2023 年 11 月投資者日制定的資本配置框架。第三季度，我們利用自由現金進一步降低財務槓桿、推動與成長相關的資本支出，並為 Baldoni 的小型收購提供資金。截至季末，該公司未使用的借款能力為 2.62 億美元，而截至 6 月 30 日為 2.17 億美元。我們持續致力於減少營運資本，特別是透過提高庫存效率。不過，總庫存比 2024 年第二季的水平有所增加，部分原因是卡車在季度末已經完工但尚未發貨，以及新產品的運輸延遲。由於庫存水準上升，以及由於季節性因素導致第三季年化銷售額下降，營運資本佔第三季銷售額的 21%。我將轉向我們的第四季度展望並對 2025 年做一些簡短的評論。展望未來，我們預計第四季的綜合收入和淨收入將與去年同期的強勁水平大致相當。預計 2024 年全年綜合財務業績仍將年比大幅改善，這主要得益於上半年業績的強勁成長。我們相信，公司 2023 年和 2024 年強勁的財務業績極大地受益於我們過去幾年採取的行動，這些行動使公司實現盈利增長，並兌現了我們為客戶提供最佳解決方案和提供卓越客戶服務的承諾。總體而言，這些前幾年啟動的長期產品開發和流程改善專案正在使組織變得更加高效和靈活。我們現在能夠更好地進一步優化我們的營運和成本。因此，我們在 2024 年 10 月得出結論，應該在美洲開展新的項目，以降低成本、優化我們的製造足跡、縮短交貨時間，並更好地幫助公司提高利潤率並實現進一步增長。我們預計，在未來 12 到 36 個月內全面實施這些製造改進計劃時，將產生重組費用。這些計劃的細節仍有待敲定。費用和預期收益的估計尚未完全確定。我們將提供第四季度收益結果的更多詳細資訊。對於堆高機業務，我們預期第四季的營收和營業利潤與去年同期大致相當。預計高價格、高利潤的積壓產品的出貨量所帶來的強勁產品利潤率將被更高的運費和材料成本以及增加的營運費用所抵消。公司穩固的訂單積壓和持續的定價紀律為限制當前低需求環境對我們業績的負面影響奠定了基礎。展望 2025 年，我們的積壓訂單預計將在上半年減少至更正常的水平。這可能會導致 Lyft Trucks 的全年收入較 2024 年略有下降。收入下降，加上預期的成本上漲和略高的營運費用，預計 2025 年的營運利潤將較 2024 年的強勁成長大幅下降。對於 Balzoni 而言，我們預計第四季度的營收將比去年同期有所下降，因為堆高機業務傳統零件的淘汰超過了附件銷售的成長。材料、運費和員工相關專案成本的增加可能會抑制 Balzoni 產品利潤率的提高。因此，營業利潤可能較上年同期下降。2025年，儘管由於低利潤零件銷售的持續淘汰導致銷售量下降，但預計營業利潤將比去年同期改善。在 Nuvera，業務仍然專注於增加客戶產品展示和訂單。其中包括其新型便攜式氫燃料電池發電機，於9月開始向經銷商和客戶進行展示。預計第四季營收將年增，並應與 2024 年第三季的水平相當。產品開發成本的增加可能導致營業虧損較上年同期小幅增加。Nuvera 預計，由於燃料電池銷量增加，2025 年收入將年增。預計銷售額成長帶來的好處將因新產品開發成本同比小幅增加而受到一定程度的抵銷。Nuvera 2025 年的整體經營業績應會較上年有所改善，部分原因是 2024 年第三季採取的裁員行動帶來了收益。我們繼續朝著 Lyft 卡車和 Baldoni 業務在整個業務週期內 7% 的營業利潤率目標邁進。我們在 2024 年第一季和第二季超額完成了這個目標，這兩個時期的需求都很旺盛。在當前疲軟的需求環境下，我們高利潤卡車的長期積壓訂單繼續為我們的財務表現提供緩衝。我們預計未來幾季的生產水準將繼續超過預訂量，到 2025 年中期我們的積壓訂單將達到更正常的水準。預計 2025 年下半年預訂量將加速成長，進而推動 2026 年生產水準的提高。同時，降低成本、提高生產力和提供全球一致生產的高品質、高度可客製化的產品的策略行動應該能夠讓我們在商業週期的各個階段獲得更高的利潤。這些行動目前正在進行中，並將在未來幾季獲得推動力。由於我提到的因素，我們預計 2025 年的收入將下降，並且與 2024 年的強勁水平相比，合併後的營業利潤和淨收入將大幅下降。我們在減少週期性對我們業務的影響方面取得了進展，並制定了計劃以進一步穩定週期性較低時期的表現。我們將繼續致力於提高現金轉換率，主要是透過降低庫存水準。除了營運資金外，我們預計 2024 年的資本支出將為 4,900 萬美元，低於我們最初預測的 8,700 萬美元。雖然我們仍預期效率投資將實現有意義的成長，但流動性是我們的首要任務。 2024 年的經營現金流應該會比前一年大幅增加。2025 年，預計經營現金流將保持強勁，但較 2024 年的水準有所下降。隨著我們繼續產生現金，我們將遵循嚴格的資本配置框架來降低槓桿率，進行支持獲利成長的策略性投資，並為我們的股東創造豐厚的回報。現在，我將把電話轉給執行主席，請他發表結束語。艾爾？

Thanks, Scott. As Rajiv and Scott have outlined, we had a strong quarter. Our foundation remained strong despite challenges due to the global market decline. We believe the programs we have in place will help us navigate more effectively through the natural fluctuations of this current market cycle than has been the case in the past, and that the continued maturation of our strategic initiatives will return us to target levels as the market improves. We are delivering on customer promises to provide optimal solutions and exceptional care. by providing high-value-adding systems such as our modular scalable technology and our operator-assist and full automation technologies. We are already beginning to see the benefits of our ongoing transition to these technologies. We have also taken important steps to improve lift truck production efficiencies and, in our newly announced restructuring program, we will now be implementing projects to further optimize the company's operations and cost structure. All of this, supplemented by Rajiv's and Scott's remarks, leads me to believe our company is well-positioned for substantial longer-term profitable growth.

謝謝，斯科特。正如拉吉夫和斯科特所概述的，我們本季表現強勁。儘管全球市場衰退帶來挑戰，我們的基礎依然穩固。我們相信，我們實施的計劃將幫助我們比過去更有效地應對當前市場週期的自然波動，並且隨著市場好轉，我們戰略舉措的持續成熟將使我們回到目標水平。我們履行對客戶的承諾，提供最佳解決方案和卓越的服務。透過提供高附加價值系統，例如我們的模組化可擴展技術以及我們的操作員輔助和全自動化技術。我們已經開始看到持續轉型為這些技術帶來的好處。我們也採取了重要措施來提高堆高機的生產效率，在我們新宣布的重組計劃中，我們將實施進一步優化公司營運和成本結構的專案。所有這些，加上拉吉夫和斯科特的評論，使我相信，我們公司已做好準備，以實現長期大幅盈利增長。

Now we would like to open the call to questions. Andrew, are you there?

現在我們想開始提問。安德魯，你在嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Chip Moore, Roth.

（操作員指令）Chip Moore，Roth。

Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. Good morning. I want to start with the weakness in EMEA this quarter. I think you referenced some supply chain challenges and perhaps some new product rollout issues. Maybe just expand on that. What you saw there. How big was that impact?

嘿，大家好。感謝您回答這個問題。早安.我想先談談本季歐洲、中東和非洲地區的弱點。我想您提到了一些供應鏈挑戰和一些新產品推出的問題。也許只是進一步擴展這一點。你在那裡看到了什麼。影響有多大？

just reduce production rate due to component availability. I'll also say that the market in Europe is slow, it's weaker, and so booking rates aren't at the expected level. We think that's stabilizing, so we should start to see that. and others. Some additional features and scalability on our modular and scalable programs. These were the more sophisticated systems and the issues are more related to software and just some interface issues. So the teams worked through that and I think we're starting to ship those trucks.

只是由於組件可用性而降低生產率。我還要說的是，歐洲市場發展緩慢，較為疲軟，因此預訂率沒有達到預期水準。我們認為情況正在穩定下來，所以我們應該開始看到這一點。和其他。我們的模組化和可擴展程式的一些附加功能和可擴展性。這些是更複雜的系統，問題更與軟體和一些介面問題有關。所以團隊完成了這項工作，我想我們已經開始運送這些卡車了。

Great, that's helpful. And if I could ask on cost and productivity initiatives you called out. I appreciate you probably can't give too much detail, but I imagine this is something you've been contemplating for a while, just maybe high-level thoughts on what you're thinking about and when we might start to see some of those benefits start to roll through. Would this be back half of next year we start to see benefit or how do we think about that?

很好，很有幫助。我可以問一下您所提到的成本和生產力措施嗎？我知道您可能無法透露太多細節，但我想這是您考慮了一段時間的事情，也許只是關於您正在考慮什麼以及我們何時可以開始看到其中的一些好處開始顯現的高層次想法。我們是否要到明年半年才能開始看到效益，或者我們如何看待這一點？

Yes, so this is, you're right, that this has been a plan. So as we had talked in our various investor meetings, that we're developing the new modular scalable product so that we can build both internal combustion engine trucks and electric trucks on the same line. And so now that that's feasible and the development of the electric truck is maturing, We feel that that's a good part for us. But it does take... Today in North America, for instance, those trucks are built in different plants. So we have to do some rationalization. And so we're working through the details of that. Strategically, that's what we wanted to do. But now the teams are going through the more detailed analysis to see how do we make that happen. And there are some other secondary decisions that we have to make along with that strategic element. And we'll work through that probably in the first two quarters of next year. Some of the transitions have already happened, and the bigger ones will take place most likely in late 2025 and 2026. And then benefits will start coming towards the end of 2026. Got it.

是的，你說得對，這是一個計劃。正如我們在各種投資者會議上所說的那樣，我們正在開發新的模組化可擴展產品，以便我們可以在同一生產線上生產內燃機卡車和電動卡車。現在這已經成為可能，而且電動卡車的發展也日益成熟，我們覺得這對我們來說是一件好事。但它確實需要...例如，如今在北美，這些卡車是在不同的工廠生產的。因此我們必須做一些合理化調整。所以我們正在研究這個問題的細節。從戰略上來說，這正是我們想要做的。但現在團隊正在進行更詳細的分析，以了解如何實現這一目標。除了這個戰略要素之外，我們還必須做出一些其他次要決策。我們可能會在明年前兩個季度解決這個問題。一些轉變已經發生，更大的轉變最有可能在 2025 年末和 2026 年發生。然後福利將在 2026 年底開始顯現。知道了。

That's helpful, and I'm sure we'll learn a lot more next quarter. And I guess maybe if I could sneak in a last one just around, I guess, Margin trajectory, a lot of moving pieces, more so on next year. And then I think you referenced looking for bookings to pick up again in the back half, just your confidence there. Thanks.

這很有幫助，我相信下個季度我們會學到更多。我想也許如果我能偷偷地進入最後一個，我想，邊距軌跡，很多移動的部分，明年會更多。然後我認為您提到希望下半年的預訂量再次回升，這只是您對此的信心。謝謝。

Yes, I think I'll take it up and maybe Scott, you could pick up a little bit as well. But we've done exceptionally, the organization has done exceptionally well and GAAP. 2 and 23. And now there's a bit of a dip. And so there is more intense competition for that business. And so we're having to be more competitive with our pricing. But while I say that, the other strategic element that GAAP, CapEx, OpEx, EBITDA platforms to get margins back to above target economics. Maybe not as high as we've been getting it in the bookings in 2022 and 2023, but kind of somewhere between our target economics and what we've seen there.

是的，我想我會接受它，也許斯科特，你也可以接受一點。但是我們做得非常出色，組織做得非常好，而且符合 GAAP。 2和23。現在情況有所下滑。因此該業務的競爭更加激烈。因此，我們的定價必須更具競爭力。但是，儘管我這麼說，但另一個策略要素是 GAAP、CapEx、OpEx 和 EBITDA 平台可以讓利潤率回到目標經濟之上。也許沒有我們在 2022 年和 2023 年的預訂量那麼高，但介於我們的目標經濟和我們在那裡看到的水平之間。

Yes, Rajiv, I'll add just one thing to that. Our backlog today is more robust in the first half of the year, and the more competitively priced bookings that Rajiv referred to are probably more in the second half of the year. So when you think of unit margins in the context that Rajiv gave, we expect to stay above target margins, but you probably have a higher first half and a lower second half because of the market dynamics. I think importantly though, as we think about our goal of remaining, you know, achieving 7% operating profit across the business cycle, as we go through this market downturn, the business is going to perform better than it has in prior cycles.

是的，拉吉夫，我只想補充一點。我們今天的積壓訂單在上半年更為充足，而拉吉夫提到的價格更具競爭力的訂單可能在下半年會更多。因此，當您根據拉吉夫給出的上下文考慮單位利潤率時，我們預計利潤率將保持在目標利潤率之上，但由於市場動態，上半年的利潤率可能會較高，下半年的利潤率可能會較低。但我認為重要的是，當我們考慮保持目標，即在整個商業週期內實現 7% 的營業利潤時，當我們經歷這次市場低迷時，業務表現將比前幾個週期更好。

Great, appreciate all the color of achievement, Scott.

太好了，欣賞斯科特的所有成就。

Ted Jackson, Northland Securities.

北國證券的泰德傑克森 (Ted Jackson)。

Thank you. I got a few questions for you. First of all, with the delay in some of the shipments and the elevated inventory that you had in the third quarter, will we see a substantial decline in inventory in the fourth quarter? I mean, are we going to see a pretty substantial kick-up in free cash flow because of that? If so, what kind of decline would we expect?

謝謝。我想問你幾個問題。首先，由於第三季部分出貨延遲，庫存增加，第四季庫存是否會大幅下降？我的意思是，我們是否會看到自由現金流因此而大幅增加？如果是這樣，我們預計會出現什麼樣的下降？

I'll give you an example. Our European plant, which essentially builds the same truck as our North American plant, was building some trucks for North America as we were planning some of the changes. And then, of course, China is building some of our value trucks. What ends up happening is there's a large quantity of trucks that are either in transport, in logistic chain, or they're waiting to be shipped out of our plant. And that increases our finished goods inventory, basically our marketing inventory. So that's a big factor that's driving our working capital up. The second one is that we are getting a slower installation of trucks from our customers. And what's happening there is we're building now orders that we received in late 2022, early 2023, mostly early 2023. Customers have seen large changes. So as we start to, as they get notified that their trucks will be built, they are revising where these trucks are going to be applied, and that takes some time to reorganize. So those two factors are what's causing our marketing inventory to go up, and that's what's driving it. In fact, our manufacturing inventory has improved compared to last quarter. And we think that It will definitely be improved by the end of the year, but I think some of it will take the first quarter of 2025 to work through because of the longer supply chain of the trucks, the finished goods.

我給你舉個例子。我們的歐洲工廠生產的卡車基本上與北美工廠生產的卡車相同，當我們計劃進行一些變更時，它正在為北美生產一些卡車。當然，中國也在生產我們的一些高價值卡車。最終的結果是，大量的卡車要么在運輸中，要么在物流鏈中，要么正在等待運出我們的工廠。這增加了我們的成品庫存，基本上就是我們的行銷庫存。這是推動我們營運資本增加的重要因素。第二個問題是，我們的客戶安裝卡車的速度變慢了。現在的情況是，我們正在建造 2022 年底、2023 年初（主要是 2023 年初）收到的訂單。顧客已經看到了巨大的變化。因此，當我們開始，當他們得到將要製造卡車的通知時，他們正在修改這些卡車的應用地點，而這需要一些時間來重新組織。所以這兩個因素就是導致我們的行銷庫存增加的原因，也是推動因素。事實上，與上一季相比，我們的製造庫存有所改善。我們認為到今年年底情況肯定會有所改善，但我認為部分問題需要在 2025 年第一季才能解決，因為卡車和成品的供應鏈更長。

Just to add on to that a little bit, the company does expect a significant cash flow increase as a result of lower working capital in Q4. And as Rajiv laid out, we expect those benefits to continue in 2025. There's the short-term nature of marketing inventory. There's also the long-term nature of the programs we have in place to be more efficient and get back to working capital as a percentage of sales around 15%. So big opportunity in Q4 as well as 2025 as revenues are expected to decline to decrease inventory and generate additional cashflow.

補充一點，由於第四季營運資本減少，公司確實預期現金流將大幅增加。正如拉吉夫所說，我們預計這些好處將在 2025 年繼續存在。行銷庫存具有短期性。我們實施的計劃也具有長期性，目的是提高效率並將營運資本回收至銷售額的 15% 左右。因此，第四季度以及 2025 年存在巨大的機遇，因為預計收入將下降以減少庫存並產生額外的現金流。

Okay. Shifting over to Nuvera, I know during the last call you had expected to see kind of a pop in revenue in the fourth quarter, and clearly that's not going to happen. So on Nuvera, the first thing is when we think about 2025 and the growth that you think you're going to see there, how do we think about that growth? There's been a lot of effort by the Biden administration to kind of shove through funding for things that would be very beneficial for Nuvera before the administration ends. I mean, is that a key driver for you? And if that's the case, I would assume there is some kind of tangible visibility around it that you could discuss. And then also with regards to Nuvera, I can't do two things at once, and I didn't quite catch what you said in terms of the severance. Did you say that you went through a downsizing there and there's $2.2 million in severance? And if that's the case, can you talk a bit about, well, first, is that amount correct? And then how we would think about that with regards to the cost structure for Nuvera as we put our 2025 models together.

好的。談到 Nuvera，我知道在上次電話會議中您預計第四季度的收入會增加，但顯然這不會發生。因此，關於 Nuvera，首先我們要考慮的是 2025 年以及您認為將會看到的成長，我們如何看待這種成長？拜登政府做出了巨大努力，希望在政府任期結束前為 Nuvera 非常有利的計畫爭取資金。我的意思是，這對您來說是一個關鍵驅動因素嗎？如果確實如此，我認為可以就此提出一些切實可行的可見性供大家討論。然後關於 Nuvera，我不能同時做兩件事，而且我不太明白你所說的遣散費是什麼意思。您是否說過您經歷了裁員並且有 220 萬美元的遣散費？如果是這樣，您能否談一下，首先，這個金額正確嗎？然後，當我們將 2025 年車型組合在一起時，我們將如何考慮 Nuvera 的成本結構。

Heads up. Maybe I'll start with the start with the second one because that it was actually $0.2 million a little better. That's okay. Also, I've got a cold so I'm not sure how clear I am on these things. So the other, so let me go back to the, the first one and then I'll come back to the fact in the first one, what we're generally seeing is that the market for fuel cells is getting deferred. The main reason for that is availability of hydrogen. As we've said, we've had tests in place both in Europe and in North America, and those pilots have been significantly affected by availability of hydrogen at the ports. As you probably know, there's a huge amount of investment going on in making hydrogen available. It's just not there yet. Equipment builders are also reacting to that, including us. Our programs are being deferred to when we feel hydrogen is going to be more available in these specific target applications. So that's been the cause of some of the movement. We still strongly believe that hydrogen is the right solution for these high-productivity, large vehicles that consume a huge amount of energy. We've also had electric trucks running around with battery only, and we're better understanding the challenges they pose So I think the long-term hypothesis is still correct. The timing is slipping. Now, you talked about some of the incentive programs or investment programs the government's announced, and I think they will make a difference. We have some pilot programs with select customers for late 2026 and 2027. So the majority of those programs will have deliveries in late 2026 and throughout 2027. So that gives you a sense for how the application of technology is getting pushed back. Now we are working, for instance, with the Department of Energy to figure out programs we can implement to accelerate. Those have been announced, and Nivera has won some of those programs, which will help with some of the cost as we work through this delayed implementation of hydrogen. The other thing we've done in light of that is adjusted. We've taken nobody out of our product development group technology. We believe we have leading technology and we're continuing to invest in that, but we've optimized the operational group in light of the volume that's expected in 2025 and 2026. And that's what the structure That's what some of the reduction in workforce was about. I appreciate it.

小心。也許我會從第二個開始，因為它實際上好一點，為 20 萬美元。沒關係。另外，我感冒了，所以我不確定我對這些事情是否清楚。那麼另一個，讓我回到第一個問題，然後我會回到第一個問題中的事實，我們普遍看到的是燃料電池市場正在被推遲。主要原因是氫氣的可用性。正如我們所說，我們已經在歐洲和北美進行了測試，這些試點受到港口氫氣供應的顯著影響。您可能知道，目前人們在氫氣生產方面投入了巨額資金。只是還沒到達那裡。設備製造商也對此做出了反應，包括我們。當我們覺得氫氣在這些特定目標應用上更可用時，我們的計畫就會被推遲。這正是一些運動發生的原因。我們仍然堅信，氫氣是這些高生產率、大型且消耗大量能源的車輛的正確解決方案。我們也有僅靠電池運行的電動卡車，我們更了解它們所帶來的挑戰，所以我認為長期假設仍然是正確的。時機已到。現在，您談到了政府宣布的一些激勵計劃或投資計劃，我認為它們將發揮作用。我們與特定客戶合作進行了一些試點項目，預計在 2026 年末和 2027 年實施。因此，大多數專案將在 2026 年底和 2027 年全年交付。這可以讓你了解科技的應用是如何受到阻礙的。例如，現在我們正在與能源部合作，制定可以實施的加速計畫。這些項目已經宣布，Nivera 已經贏得了其中一些項目，這將在我們推遲實施氫氣技術的過程中幫助節省部分成本。有鑑於此，我們所做的另一件事是調整。我們沒有把任何人從我們的產品開發小組技術中剔除。我們相信我們擁有領先的技術，並且我們將繼續對其進行投資，但我們已經根據 2025 年和 2026 年的預期產量優化了營運團隊。這就是結構，這就是部分裁員的原因。我很感激。

Okay, I appreciate it. I have two more questions if that's okay. And make it simpler. The next topic is Bolzoni and and I want to kind of cycle circle in with regards to kind of the cost and the acquisition because I was a, you know, I H1stly, I thought that the on the expense side, the SG and a side was a little higher than I expected. And if I read through the guidance correctly, then the fourth quarter was, would be a little higher than I expected. But I also didn't realize that you'd made an acquisition. So within the context of, you know, kind of the expense structure for ball zoning in the near term, is it, is that indeed what's happening is, is that, you know, you've, you've bought this business and, you know, you've layered in a mid amount of expenses on it. And if that's the case, how do I think about that for 25?

好的，我很感激。如果可以的話我還有兩個問題。並使其更簡單。下一個主題是博爾佐尼，我想就成本和收購進行循環討論，因為我知道，我首先認為，在費用方面，SG 等方面比我預期的要高一些。如果我正確地理解了這份指引，那麼第四季的業績將比我預期的略高一些。但我還沒意識到你已經進行了收購。因此，在近期球分區費用結構的背景下，確實發生的情況是，你知道，你已經購買了這項業務，並且你已經在其上分層了中等金額的費用。如果確實如此，我該如何考慮 25 呢？

Yes. This is just a quarter issue that it was in our other cost of sales, some of it's related to that. But also, you know, we've had, you know, the logistic disruptions that impacted all the businesses with, you know, with the kind of red sea issues. Now that's starting to normalize, but the businesses hadn't made provision for the increased logistic cost they've been seeing. So whether that comes to fruition or not, we don't know because since the peak, you know, holiday shopping shipment have been completed in, I would say mid October, we've seen a decline in shipping rates, so maybe that won't happen. But for 2025 I would use what we've done what the, you know, the SGN has been in only in 2024 with just inflation applied to it.

是的。這只是我們其他銷售成本中的一個季度問題，其中一些與此相關。但同時，你知道，我們也遇到了物流中斷，這影響了所有企業，出現了「紅海問題」。現在這種情況開始正常化，但企業尚未為他們看到的增加的物流成本做好準備。因此，我們不知道這是否會實現，因為自從假日購物高峰期的發貨已經在十月中旬完成以來，我們看到運費有所下降，所以也許這種情況不會發生。但對於 2025 年，我會利用我們已經做過的事情，你知道，SGN 在 2024 年才應用了通貨膨脹。

Okay. And then my last is actually it's kind of too. I, I lied. On CapEx, I know you, you know, you took a big cut to CapEx relative to plans at the beginning of the year. Would I expect that to see that those investments happen 2025 where we would see, I can't remember what you said, like 80 some odd million and 25 as you bring those plans to bear particularly, I guess given what you're talking about doing with regards to some of the efficiency stuff and you know, the rationalization for lack of a better term of your manufacturing. And and then the other thing was, did you say? And again, something I might have missed what you expected for your effective tax rate for all of 24. Or did you talk about the fourth quarter at all on that front? Iii I think you talked about something like that and I was taking notes and I missed it.

好的。然後我的最後一個實際上是有點太。我，我撒謊了。關於資本支出，我知道，相對於年初的計劃，你們大幅削減了資本支出。我是否期望這些投資在 2025 年實現，我們會看到，我不記得您說過什麼，比如 8000 多萬和 2500 萬，當您將這些計劃付諸實施時，我想考慮到您正在談論的關於一些效率的事情，你知道，由於缺乏更好的製造業術語而導致的合理化。然後另一件事是，你說過嗎？再次，我可能錯過了您對全部 24 個工作日的有效稅率的預期。或者您是否談論過第四季度的情況？iii我想你談論過類似的事情，我正在做筆記，但我錯過了。

Okay, well I'll take the first part and I'll ask Scott to take the second part. On the first part, the CapEx, I think it's because we really pushed hard on what we talked about, the optimization of our operational footprint. There's been a large team working on that program for a while, and as that program has used up a lot of the resources that would typically be available for other operational capital programs, Those have started to run a little late. We've prioritized this above pretty much everything else. And so we will see some of that happen in 2025. That was planned for 2024. But I also think there's going to be some other lower priority capital programs that will be pushed out of 2025 into 2026 so that we can execute this large program that we mentioned in our release. So I think it's not to do with funding issues, it's to do with resource available to execute. And some of these programs are fairly complex to pull off, so we need the right people working on it. And that's more of the issue, Ted.

好的，我來負責第一部分，然後請史考特負責第二部分。關於第一部分，即資本支出，我認為這是因為我們確實非常努力地推動我們所談論的內容，即優化我們的營運足跡。有一個大型團隊已經為該專案工作了一段時間，並且由於該專案耗費了大量通常用於其他營運資本專案的資源，因此這些專案的運作已經開始有點晚了。我們把這個放在比其他任何事情都重要的位置。我們將在 2025 年看到一些這樣的情況發生。計劃於 2024 年實現。但我還認為，一些其他優先順序較低的資本項目將從 2025 年推遲到 2026 年，以便我們能夠執行我們在新聞稿中提到的這個大型項目。所以我認為這與資金問題無關，而是與可用於執行的資源有關。其中一些項目相當複雜，所以我們需要合適的人才來完成。這就是更大的問題，泰德。

Yes, Ted, I'll take the tax one. So we increased our full year estimated tax rate from 31% to 32%. That caused a true up adjustment in Q3, which made the Q3 rate a little bit higher at 37%. So for the full year, we expect 32%. We haven't given guidance on 2025 yet. At this point, we'll do that in our Q4 call coming up.

是的，泰德，我要選擇稅務的。因此，我們將全年預估稅率從 31% 提高到 32%。這導致第三季的真正上調，使得第三季的利率略微上升至 37%。因此，我們預計全年成長率為 32%。我們尚未給予 2025 年的指導。此時，我們將在即將召開的第四季電話會議上這樣做。

Okay. Thanks for the patience of picking all that for me.

好的。感謝您耐心地為我挑選這一切。

No problem.

沒問題。

Kirk Ludtke, Imperial Capital.

柯克‧路德克 (Kirk Ludtke)，帝國首都。

Hello Rajiv, Scott, Al, Christina. I appreciate the call. I thought maybe we could just talk about your core North American market for a second in terms of overall demand and when you talk to your customers, are you hearing any themes from them? Are they waiting for rates to come down? Are there any catalysts on the horizon that come up in your conversations?

你好，Rajiv、Scott、Al、Christina。我很感謝您的來電。我想我們可以就整體需求的角度來談談你們的核心北美市場，以及當你與客戶交談時，你是否聽到他們談到什麼主題？他們是在等待利率下降嗎？你們在談話中是否提到了即將出現的催化劑？

I think the way to think about what's going on in North America is really look at this cycle we've been going through. I would say from 2021 to where we are today, and probably moving out to the end of 2025. So what happened between 2021 and 2023, midway through 2023, is the industry booked, let's say, almost 200,000 more trucks than normal. Now, don't forget, those trucks were not delivered in that time frame. because, as I said, we're now delivering trucks that we booked in, I would say, mostly early 2023. Now, what's happening is customers are getting delivered those trucks, and many of them saw that demand just post-COVID of things, of material handling needs, as people bought things while they were at home. That subsided. Now people are traveling. They're spending money in other ways than just buying goods that you have to transport and logistics. So what's happened is that's created a bit of a need to digest the trucks that our customers are getting, now starting to receive. and so they're working through that. We think that this dip will probably start to even out by the second half of 2025 and then the market will normalize to let's say 2029, 2018, 2019 kind of levels . And then we expect that to go up to if you adjust that for, you know, GDP, plus a little bit that we normally perform above GDP. So that, that's what we think is happening. We're pretty sure that's what's going on. And as we talk to customers, that's what they're trying to do. So there is the edge taken off the demand because I think that demand was a bubble, but the base demand is still good and strong and consumers as you can see active in the marketplace. So yes, we don't expect anything in the economy to be driving this. This is the industry.

我認為，要理解北美正在發生的事情，就要看看我們經歷的這個週期。我想說從 2021 年到我們現在的水平，甚至可能到 2025 年底。那麼在 2021 年至 2023 年期間，也就是 2023 年中期，該行業預訂的卡車數量比正常情況下多出了近 20 萬輛。現在，別忘了，那些卡車沒有在那個時間範圍內交付。因為正如我所說，我們現在正在交付預訂的卡車，我想說大部分是在 2023 年初。現在的情況是，客戶們正在透過卡車接收貨物，其中許多人看到了疫情過後對物資處理的需求，因為人們在家裡買東西。那已經平息了。現在人們正在旅行。他們除了購買需要運輸和物流的商品外，還以其他方式花錢。所以現在發生的情況是，我們需要消化客戶現在開始收到的卡車。他們正在努力解決這個問題。我們認為，到 2025 年下半年，這種下滑可能會開始趨於平穩，然後市場將恢復正常，達到 2029 年、2018 年、2019 年的水平。然後我們預計，如果根據 GDP 進行調整，這個數字將會上升，再加上通常高於 GDP 的一點。所以，我們認為這就是正在發生的事情。我們非常確定事情就是這樣的。當我們與客戶交談時，我們發現他們正在嘗試這樣做。因此，需求邊緣已經消失，因為我認為需求是一個泡沫，但基本需求仍然良好且強勁，而且正如你所看到的，消費者在市場上很活躍。所以是的，我們預期經濟中不會有任何因素推動這項進程。這就是行業。

Got it. I appreciate that. Thank you. And you mentioned your market share, you're gaining market share. Are you gaining market share in North America? And do you think that you'll continue to gain share?

知道了。我很感激。謝謝。您提到了您的市場份額，您的市場份額正在增加。您在北美的市佔率是否正在擴大？您認為您的市佔率會繼續增加嗎？

That's our plan. Yes, I mean, a lot of our strategies are built around gaining share and we have and we will, our quarter in particular was a very strong quarter in 2023 for us. And so, you know, kind of quarter four, the quarter, I mean, the other thing. Yes, so the quarter 3, 2024 you know, is, you know, versus last year looks okay, but we expect going forward that we will grow share.

這就是我們的計劃。是的，我的意思是，我們的許多策略都是圍繞著獲得份額而建立的，我們已經並將繼續這樣做，特別是 2023 年這個季度對我們來說是一個非常強勁的一個季度。所以，您知道，第四季度，我的意思是，另一件事。是的，因此，2024 年第三季與去年相比看起來還不錯，但我們預計未來我們的份額將會增加。

Got it. Thank you and shifting topics mention an adverse shift in mix on the part side and can you elaborate on that a bit? And you know, is this the new normal or do you expect this mix to persist or revert to where it was?

知道了。謝謝您，話題的轉變提到了部分混合方面的不利轉變，您能詳細說明一下嗎？您知道，這是新常態嗎，還是您預期這種混合狀態將持續存在或恢復到原來的狀態？

Yes, there's some short-term mix things going on and there's some longer-term mix things that we need to think about. The immediate term is just a mix between Parts that are used for service and parts that are used for repair. It's just a cycle that we sold, and the margin profile on those are different. We sold more of the service rather than the repair-related parts. That will even itself out over time. The more long-term change is The electrification. If you move from internal combustion engine to electric trucks, the parts profile is different. The number of parts used in service is different. It's less for electric trucks. So that change is going on. Our response to that is that we're adding more electric-oriented solutions into our offering. and we'll be talking about that more in the future, but immediately we've got a really intense focus on lithium-ion batteries and, you know, kind of incorporating that into our both, you know, unit sales and parts infrastructure.

是的，有一些短期混合事務正在發生，也有一些長期混合事務我們需要考慮。直接術語只是用於服務的零件與用於修理的零件的混合。這只是我們銷售的一輛自行車，它們的利潤率情況不同。我們銷售的更多的是服務，而不是維修相關的零件。隨著時間的推移，這種情況將會自行解決。更長期的變化是電氣化。如果從內燃機卡車轉向電動卡車，零件概況會有所不同。服務中使用的零件數量不同。對於電動卡車來說，這個數字就較小。所以這個改變正在發生。我們的回應是，我們正在為我們的產品中添加更多以電動為導向的解決方案。我們將來會更多地談論這個問題，但目前我們的重點是鋰離子電池，並將其融入我們的單位銷售和零件基礎設施中。

Got it. That's very helpful. What percentage of the installed base is electric, do you think?

知道了。這非常有幫助。您認為安裝基數中有多少比例是電動的？

For us, let's say, just take North America, for example, it's, I would say, you know, $40, $60. But if you think about it from a value point of view, in terms of the value of the truck and the value of the parts, it's probably more closer to $50, $50.

對我們來說，比如說，以北美為例，我想說的是，這個價格是 40 美元到 60 美元。但如果從價值的角度考慮，就卡車的價值和零件的價值而言，它可能更接近 50 美元，50 美元。

Got it. I appreciate it. Thank you very much. That's it for me.

知道了。我很感激。非常感謝。對我來說就是這樣了。

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

女士們、先生們，現在沒有其他問題了。請繼續。

Okay. With that, we'll conclude our Q&A session. Thank you so much for participating. A replay of our call will be available later this morning. We'll also post a transcript on the website when it becomes available. If you have any questions, please reach out to me. My information is in the press release. I hope you have a good rest of your day, and I'll turn it back to Pamela to conclude the call.

好的。我們的問答環節就此結束。非常感謝您的參與。我們的通話重播將於今天上午晚些時候提供。當成績單可用時，我們也會將其發佈在網站上。如果您有任何疑問，請與我聯絡。我的信息在新聞稿中。我希望您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快，我將把電話轉回給帕梅拉來結束這次通話。

Thank you. Thank you. This does conclude your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day, everyone.

謝謝。謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝大家有個愉快的一天。