Hub Group Inc (HUBG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Hub Group First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Phil Yeager, Hub's President, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman; and Kevin Beth, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer are joining the call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Hub Group 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。Phil Yeager，Hub 總裁、執行長兼副董事長；財務長兼財務主管 Kevin Beth 也參加了電話會議。（操作員指示）

Statements made on this call and in other reference documents on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involves risks, uncertainties, and other factors that might cause actual results to -- performance of Hub Group to differ materially from those expressed or implied by this discussion and therefore should be viewed with caution.

本次電話會議及我們網站上其他參考文件中的非歷史事實陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述並非對未來業績的保證，並且涉及風險、不確定性和其他因素，這些因素可能導致 Hub Group 的實際結果與本討論中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異，因此應謹慎對待。

Further information on the risks that may affect Hub Group's business is included in the filings with the SEC, which are on our website. In addition, on today's call, non-GAAP financial measures will be used. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and quarterly earnings presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

有關可能影響 Hub Group 業務的風險的更多資訊包含在我們網站上提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中。此外，在今天的電話會議上，將使用非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益報告和季度收益報告中包含了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的對帳。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Phil Yeager. You may now begin.

現在我很高興將電話轉給主持人菲爾耶格爾 (Phil Yeager)。現在你可以開始了。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Hub Group's first quarter earnings call. Joining me today is Kevin Beth, Hub Group's Chief Financial Officer and Garrett Holland, our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. I'd like to start by thanking our thousands of team members across North America for their efforts to support our customers and our Hub Group family through this dynamic market.

下午好，歡迎參加 Hub Group 第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有 Hub Group 財務長 Kevin Beth 和投資者關係資深副總裁 Garrett Holland。首先，我要感謝我們遍布北美的數千名團隊成員，感謝他們在這個充滿活力的市場中為我們的客戶和 Hub Group 大家庭提供支援。

These efforts drove a 40-basis point improvement in operating margins during the quarter and are setting us up for success, both in the current market and long term. Our customers have taken different approaches to managing through the implementation of tariffs, with the majority taking a wait and see approach, while others pull forward inventory depending on their end markets, product types and origin of their finished goods.

這些努力使得本季的營業利潤率提高了 40 個基點，為我們在當前市場和長期的成功奠定了基礎。我們的客戶採取了不同的方法來應對關稅的實施，大多數採取觀望態度，而其他客戶則根據其終端市場、產品類型和成品來源提前庫存。

It remains unclear what the near and long term impacts will be as many of our customers have diversified their vendor base and supply chains to ensure fluidity through these potential disruptions. However, this has also created an increased focus for our customers to drive savings in their supply chain, which is supporting over-the-road conversions in intermodal and increasing the pipeline for our consolidation and managed transportation solutions.

由於我們的許多客戶已經實現了供應商基礎和供應鏈的多樣化，以確保在這些潛在中斷的情況下保持流動性，因此短期和長期影響將是什麼仍不清楚。然而，這也使我們的客戶更加重視推動其供應鏈的節約，這支持了多式聯運中的公路轉換，並增加了我們的整合和管理運輸解決方案的管道。

There will likely be a near term impact to import volumes to the West Coast, but the magnitude remains uncertain as our volumes have remained steady. We are closely monitoring the situation, while staying in constant communication with our clients on their needs.

這可能會對西海岸的進口量產生短期影響，但由於進口量保持穩定，其影響程度仍不確定。我們正在密切關注情況，同時與客戶保持持續溝通，並了解他們的需求。

Through this current turbulence in global trade, we are focusing on what we can control, winning profitable growth across all of our segments by leveraging our great service, decreasing costs through our newly implemented $40 million cost reduction program and maintaining our strong balance sheet below our long-term leverage target, giving us flexibility to invest in our business, return capital to shareholders, which totaled $21 million in the quarter, identify strategic acquisition opportunities and preserve our strong culture and team.

在當前全球貿易動盪的情況下，我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情，透過利用我們的優質服務在所有部門贏得盈利增長，透過我們新實施的 4000 萬美元成本削減計劃降低成本，並保持我們強勁的資產負債表低於我們的長期槓桿目標，使我們能夠靈活地投資於我們的業務，向股東返還資本（本季度總計 2100 萬美元），我們尋找強大的文化團隊並保持強大的戰略資本（本季度總計 2100 萬美元），我們尋找強大的文化團隊並保持強大（本季度總計 2100 萬美元），我們尋找強大的文化團隊和資本團隊（本季度總計 2100 萬美元），我們尋找強大的文化團隊並保持強大（本季度總計 2100 萬美元），我們尋找強大的文化團隊並保持強大（本季度總計 2100 萬美元），我們尋找強大的文化團隊和資本。

I will now discuss our business results starting with ITS, where we delivered an 8% increase in year-over-year operating margin due to improvements in dedicated operations, higher intermodal volumes and the EASO joint venture. This margin improvement was partially offset by slightly lower revenue driven by declines in dedicated volume due to lower demand as well as small lot sites and lower intermodal revenue per load.

我現在將首先討論我們的業務成果，從 ITS 開始，由於專用營運的改善、聯運量的增加以及 EASO 合資企業，我們的營業利潤率同比增長了 8%。利潤率的提高被收入的略微下降部分抵消，收入的略微下降是由於需求下降、小批量站點和每批貨物聯運收入降低導致的專用量下降。

Intermodal's volumes increased 8% year-over-year due to bid wins, a pull forward of inventory and benefit from the EASO transaction. Local East volumes increased 13%, Local West increased 5% and Transcon shipments were down 1% year-over-year, while we had significant volume growth in Mexico through organic expansion and our joint venture. Revenue decreased due to a 12% decline in revenue per load, which was impacted by fuel mix and price.

由於中標、庫存提前以及 EASO 交易的收益，多式聯運的運量年增了 8%。當地東部地區貨運量增加了 13%，當地西部地區貨運量增加了 5%，而 Transcon 貨運量則比去年同期下降了 1%，同時，透過有機擴張和合資企業，我們在墨西哥的貨運量實現了顯著增長。收入下降是由於燃料結構和價格的影響，每載收入下降了 12%。

We are executing well in bid season, onboarding wins with a mix of new and existing customers in network beneficial lanes due to our excellent service. We are closely monitoring award compliance, and although shipping patterns have been more erratic, we are seeing improvements as we onboard new awards. During the quarter, we reduced insurance expense, increased our insourced dray percentage, drove better container utilization and empty repositioning costs, while cost per day and driver productivity remained relatively flat year-over-year.

我們在投標季節表現良好，憑藉我們優質的服務，在網路有利的航線上贏得了許多新舊客戶的青睞。我們正在密切監控獎項的遵守情況，儘管運輸模式變得更加不穩定，但隨著我們加入新的獎項，我們看到了改善。在本季度，我們減少了保險費用，增加了內部運輸比例，提高了貨櫃利用率並降低了空箱重新定位成本，而每日成本和駕駛員生產力與去年同期相比保持相對平穩。

We have further actions in place to enhance these operational areas and anticipate further improvement in the quarters ahead. In dedicated, we are operating in a competitive environment. And while we have had losses of smaller sites to runway truckload, we have had a strong renewal rate and new wins we are onboarding.

我們已採取進一步措施來加強這些營運領域，並預計未來幾季將進一步改善。在專注中，我們在競爭環境中運作。儘管我們因跑道卡車裝載量而損失了一些較小的站點，但我們的續約率很高，並且正在獲得新的勝利。

We improved our revenue per truck per day by 9% year-over-year in the quarter and are focused on delivering value to our customers through our strong service levels and cost reductions. In logistics, our operating margin percentage improved 70 basis points year-over-year due to improved efficiency in our facilities as well as the completion of the network alignment initiative that was offset by lower margins in our brokerage.

本季度，我們每輛卡車每天的收入年增了 9%，並專注於透過強大的服務水準和成本降低為客戶提供價值。在物流方面，我們的營業利潤率年增了 70 個基點，這得益於我們設施效率的提高以及網路調整計劃的完成，但被經紀業務利潤率的下降所抵消。

We experienced a larger decline in revenue at brokerage due to limited spot market opportunities and decline in rates as well as negative mix. This was offset by better relative performance in our contractual logistics offerings. Brokerage volume declined 9% year-over-year with a 10% decline in revenue per load, which was primarily driven by lower fuel price and mix.

由於現貨市場機會有限、利率下降以及負面組合，我們的經紀收入出現較大幅度下降。但這一差距被我們合約物流產品相對較好的表現所抵銷。經紀業務量較去年同期下降 9%，每載收入下降 10%，主要原因是燃料價格和燃料組合下降。

Our LTL offering is performing well, helping to drive sequential margin improvement from the fourth quarter. We also reduced negative margin shipments by 210 basis points year-over-year and are winning with new and existing customers in bid season, while reducing our purchase transportation costs. In our managed solutions, we delivered operating margin percentage improvement in all of our services, the largest being in CFS following the implementation of operational efficiency enhancements and our network alignment initiative completion.

我們的零擔運輸服務表現良好，有助於推動第四季以來利潤率的連續提高。我們還將負利潤出貨量年減了 210 個基點，並在投標季節贏得了新舊客戶，同時降低了採購運輸成本。在我們的託管解決方案中，我們在所有服務中都實現了營業利潤率百分比的提高，其中最大的提高是在實施營運效率增強和完成網路協調計劃之後的 CFS。

This has led to an 1,100-basis point improvement in warehouse utilization year-over-year. We are focused on growth across all of our offerings and improving our cost basis through productivity enhancements, and we have a strong pipeline as we leverage our scale and service to compete and win in the market.

這使得倉庫利用率比去年同期提高了 1,100 個基點。我們專注於所有產品的成長，並透過提高生產力來改善我們的成本基礎，並且我們擁有強大的管道，利用我們的規模和服務在市場上競爭並獲勝。

With that, I will hand it over to Kevin to discuss our financial results.

說完這些，我會把話題交給凱文來討論我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Phil. I will walk through our financial results before commenting on our outlook. Our reported revenue for the first quarter was $915 million. Revenue decreased by 8% compared to last year and was in line with fourth quarter revenue. ICF revenue was $530 million which is down 4% from prior year's revenue of $552 million as intermodal volume growth of 8% was offset by lower intermodal revenue per load due to a change in mix and slightly lower dedicated revenue in the quarter.

謝謝你，菲爾。在評論我們的前景之前，我將先介紹我們的財務表現。我們報告的第一季營收為 9.15 億美元。營收較去年同期下降了8%，與第四季營收持平。ICF 收入為 5.3 億美元，比上年的 5.52 億美元下降 4%，因為聯運量增長 8% 被每車次聯運收入下降所抵消，原因是本季度組合變化和專用收入略有下降導致。

Additionally, lower fuel revenue of approximately $11 million negatively impacted the top line. The logistics segment revenue was $411 million compared to $480 million in the prior year, due to lower volume and revenue per load in our brokerage business, exiting of unprofitable business in CFS and seasonal softness in our managed transportation and final mile lines of business. Lower fuel revenue of $14 million in the quarter also contributed to the decrease.

此外，燃料收入減少約 1,100 萬美元，對營業收入產生了負面影響。物流部門收入為 4.11 億美元，而去年同期為 4.8 億美元，原因是我們的經紀業務的運輸量和每批貨物的收入下降、退出 CFS 中無利可圖的業務以及我們管理的運輸和最後一英里業務的季節性疲軟。本季燃料收入減少 1400 萬美元也是造成這一下降的原因。

Moving down the P&L, for the quarter, purchased transportation and warehousing costs were $658 million, a decrease of $82 million from the prior year due to strong cost controls as well as lower rail and warehouse expenses. This results in a 220-basis point improvement on a percent of revenue basis when compared to Q1 of 2024.

在本季的損益表中，購買的運輸和倉儲成本為 6.58 億美元，比上年減少 8,200 萬美元，原因是強有力的成本控制以及較低的鐵路和倉庫費用。與 2024 年第一季相比，這導致收入百分比提高了 220 個基點。

Salaries and benefits of $149 million or $5 million higher than the prior year due to additional employee drivers and warehouse team members and the EASO transaction. Total legacy headcount, which excludes acquisition employees, drivers and warehouse employees, was lower than last year by 7% as we continue to manage headcount across the organization. Depreciation and amortization decreased $6 million over Q1 2024 due to our updated useful life assumptions.

由於增加了員工司機和倉庫團隊成員以及 EASO 交易，工資和福利為 1.49 億美元，比前一年高出 500 萬美元。由於我們繼續管理整個組織的員工人數，不包括收購員工、司機和倉庫員工的總遺留員工人數比去年減少了 7%。由於我們更新了使用壽命假設，折舊和攤提比 2024 年第一季減少了 600 萬美元。

Insurance and claims expense decreased by $2 million as we continue to see our safety focus and training programs pay dividends. Even after the EASO transaction last quarter, our cost controls allowed our general and administration expenses to remain in line with prior year. As a result, our operating income increased year-over-year, with an operating income margin of 4.1% for the quarter, an increase of 40 basis points over the prior year. ITS quarterly operating margin was 2.7%, a 30-basis point improvement over prior year.

由於我們繼續看到我們的安全重點和培訓計劃帶來回報，保險和索賠費用減少了 200 萬美元。即使在上個季度 EASO 交易之後，我們的成本控制仍使我們的一般和管理費用與上年保持一致。因此，我們的營業收入年增，本季營業收入利潤率為 4.1%，比上年增加 40 個基點。ITS 季度營業利潤率為 2.7%，比上年提高 30 個基點。

First quarter logistics operating margin was 5.7%, a 70-basis point improvement over Q1 2024. EBITDA was $85 million in the first quarter. Overall, Hub earned an EPS of $0.44 in the first quarter, in line with Q1 2024. Now turning to our cash flow. Cash flow from operations for the first three months of 2025 was $70 million. First quarter capital expenditure totaled $19 million with majority of spend related to tractor replacements, with technology making up the remainder of the spend.

第一季物流營業利潤率為 5.7%，比 2024 年第一季提高了 70 個基點。第一季的 EBITDA 為 8,500 萬美元。總體而言，Hub 第一季的每股收益為 0.44 美元，與 2024 年第一季持平。現在談談我們的現金流。2025 年頭三個月的經營現金流為 7,000 萬美元。第一季的資本支出總計 1,900 萬美元，大部分支出與拖拉機更換有關，其餘支出用於技術。

Our balance sheet and financial position remains strong. Through the first quarter, we returned $21 million to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases, as we purchased $14 million of shares and issued our quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share. Net debt was $140 million which is 0.4 times EBITDA, below our stated net debt of EBITDA range of 0.75 times to 1.25 times. EBITDA less CapEx was $65 million in the first quarter.

我們的資產負債表和財務狀況依然強勁。在第一季度，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 2,100 萬美元，其中我們回購了價值 1,400 萬美元的股票，並派發了每股 0.125 美元的季度股息。淨債務為 1.4 億美元，是 EBITDA 的 0.4 倍，低於我們所述的 EBITDA 淨債務範圍 0.75 倍至 1.25 倍。第一季的息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）減去資本支出為 6,500 萬美元。

We are pleased with our cash EPS of $0.55. The spread between EPS and cash EPS was $0.11 for the quarter, and the end of the quarter with $141 million of cash. Turning to our 2025 guidance, we expect full year EPS in the range of $1.75 to $2.25 and revenue to be between $3.6 billion to $4 billion for the full year. We project an effective tax rate of approximately 24%.

我們對每股現金收益 0.55 美元感到滿意。本季 EPS 與現金 EPS 之間的差額為 0.11 美元，本季末現金為 1.41 億美元。談到我們的 2025 年指引，我們預計全年每股收益將在 1.75 美元至 2.25 美元之間，全年收入將在 36 億美元至 40 億美元之間。我們預計有效稅率約為24%。

We also expect capital expenditures in the range of $40 million to $50 million as we focus on replacement for tractors that have reached their end of life and technology projects. We do not plan to purchase containers in 2025. Our assumptions at the high end of the range include either a short West Coast slowdown of China imports or a strong bounce back of demands in the West Coast, leading to a surge of volume in the back half of the year that allows for increased pricing for peak season surcharges.

我們也預計資本支出將在 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元之間，因為我們專注於更換已達到使用壽命的拖拉機和技術項目。我們不打算在 2025 年購買貨櫃。我們對此範圍高端的假設包括：要麼西海岸的中國進口量短暫放緩，要麼西海岸的需求強勁反彈，從而導致下半年進口量激增，從而可以提高旺季附加費的價格。

The low end of the range would be due to an extended slowdown in China imports and/or the weakening of consumer spending. The decrease in volume and margin dollars would be partially offset by further cost management efforts. The assumptions in the middle of the range contemplate a volume decrease in the second half of the second quarter due to our customers' changing shipping patterns to combat tariffs with a return to directional seasonality in a third quarter as consumer strength holds.

該範圍的低端可能歸因於中國進口持續放緩和/或消費者支出減弱。銷售和利潤的減少將透過進一步的成本管理努力得到部分抵銷。該範圍中間的假設是，由於我們的客戶改變運輸模式以應對關稅，導致第二季度下半年的銷售下降，而隨著消費者實力的保持，第三季將恢復定向季節性。

Additionally, we should recognize additional cost saving benefits through the year as the team remains committed to discipline expense management. For the ITS segment, we expect pricing to be relatively flat for the remainder of the year, as we continue to focus on network needs and new customer acquisitions. We think there is upside should we see a bounce back of volume, which would allow for peak season surcharges and pricing increases.

此外，由於團隊仍致力於規範費用管理，我們應該認識到全年額外的成本節約效益。對於 ITS 領域，我們預計今年剩餘時間內的價格將相對平穩，因為我們將繼續專注於網路需求和新客戶獲取。我們認為，如果交易量反彈，將會帶來上行空間，從而允許旺季附加費和價格上漲。

Due to the expected second quarter slowdown, we expect sequential operating results to be flat to down from first quarter. Then we would expect to be back to normal seasonal operating income pattern. We expect dedicated revenues to be less than 2024 as new customers are not enough to offset lost customers and demand softness.

由於預計第二季經濟放緩，我們預計連續經營業績將與第一季持平或下降。然後我們預計會恢復正常的季節性營業收入模式。我們預計專用收入將低於 2024 年，因為新客戶不足以抵消流失客戶和需求疲軟。

For logistics, excluding our brokerage business, we expect some general softness in demand, but there should be some mitigating factors affecting revenue. In our warehouse business if we experience lower transportation revenue, we expect to see an increase in storage revenue, and in our final mile and managed transportation business, we have a good pipeline, which, if onboarded, could offset slower shipping from current customers.

對於物流（不包括我們的經紀業務），我們預期需求整體上會有些疲軟，但應該會有一些影響收入的緩解因素。在我們的倉庫業務中，如果我們的運輸收入較低，我們預計倉儲收入會增加，而在我們的最後一英里和管理運輸業務中，我們擁有良好的渠道，如果加入，可以抵消現有客戶的運輸速度較慢的影響。

For brokerage, we expect volume for the remainder of the year to be flat to down from current volume results, but pricing to continue at current levels. The business has potential upside if we see a pronounced bounce back in inventory restocking. We continue to manage what we can control, and our cost savings initiatives have resulted in improved profitability.

對於經紀業務，我們預計今年剩餘時間的交易量將與當前交易量持平或下降，但價格將繼續保持在當前水平。如果我們看到庫存補充明顯反彈，該業務就有潛在的上升空間。我們繼續管理我們能夠控制的事情，我們的成本節約措施已經提高了獲利能力。

We are pleased with the progress the team has made with the operating income percentage increase in both segments. ITS with 30 basis points and logistics with 70 basis points of growth, resulting in a 1% increase in consolidated operating income or growth of 40 basis points on a percent to revenue basis. We also reported Q1 intermodal volume growth of 8%, free cash flow of $51 million and cash EPS of $0.55.

我們對團隊在兩個部門的營業收入百分比成長方面取得的進展感到高興。ITS 成長 30 個基點，物流成長 70 個基點，導致合併營業收入增加 1% 或營收百分比成長 40 個基點。我們還報告稱，第一季聯運量增長 8%，自由現金流為 5,100 萬美元，現金每股收益為 0.55 美元。

As we manage through this unpredictable environment, our longer-term strategy continues to guide us. We remain focused on managing our people costs, reducing discretionary spending and driving down transportation costs. At the same time, our strong balance sheet allows us to make value-add acquisition.

當我們應對這個不可預測的環境時，我們的長期策略將繼續指導我們。我們仍然專注於管理人力成本、減少可自由支配的開支和降低運輸成本。同時，我們強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠進行增值收購。

As I have noted in the past, the important strategic changes we have made to our business, including our focus on yield management, asset utilization and operating expense efficiency, and investing in assets light logistics offerings have significantly improved profitability, predictability, free cash flow and returns. We believe these strategic changes allow Hub Group to be successful in a variety of macroeconomic environments.

正如我過去所指出的，我們對業務所做的重要策略變革，包括專注於收益管理、資產利用率和營運費用效率，以及投資輕資產物流產品，顯著提高了獲利能力、可預測性、自由現金流和回報。我們相信這些策略變化使 Hub Group 能夠在各種宏觀經濟環境中取得成功。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the line to any questions.

說完這些，我將把電話交給接線員，以便解答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions). Scott Group, Wolfe Research LLC.

（操作員指令）。斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究有限公司。

So can you just talk about what percentage of intermodal is tied to West Coast ports? And then maybe, I think in the past, you gave us monthly trends, maybe just give us the monthly trends and what April was. And then, I know this a bunch, but all sort of in the same vein. But it feels like this import cliffs is starting this week. So just what you're expecting to happen to your volumes going forward?

那麼，您能談談有多少比例的多式聯運與西海岸港口有關嗎？然後也許，我想在過去，您給了我們每月的趨勢，也許只是給我們每月的趨勢和四月的情況。然後，我知道很多這樣的事，但都是同樣的道理。但感覺這種進口懸崖本週就開始了。那麼您預計未來銷售會發生什麼變化呢？

Sure. Yes. So I'll start with volume trends. January was up 18%, February was up 1%, March was up 7%, and then April was up 6%. Thus far, in May, we haven't seen the slowdown that is, obviously, much anticipated. But at this point not showing up in our data. We think that's going to be varying by customer and how much the have pulled forward, how much seasonal products they have, how much diversification in their sourcing strategy they've been able to execute on.

當然。是的。因此我將從數量趨勢開始。1 月上漲 18%，2 月上漲 1%，3 月上漲 7%，4 月上漲 6%。五月到目前為止，我們還沒有看到人們明顯預期的經濟放緩。但目前我們的數據中還沒有顯示出來。我們認為這將因客戶而異，取決於他們提前了多少，他們有多少季節性產品，以及他們能夠執行的採購策略的多樣化程度。

As far as exposure with China, about 25% of our West Coast volumes, port related 30% of that coming from China. We are, obviously, anticipating that slowdown. Once again, will vary by customer. But we're also going to have opportunities to reduce costs. Our empty repositioning costs are going to go down. We're going to insource more of our drayage, as Kevin mentioned in prepared remarks.

就與中國的貿易而言，我們西海岸約 25% 的貿易量（港口相關貿易量約 30%）來自中國。顯然，我們預期會出現這種放緩。再次強調，這會因客戶而異。但我們也有機會降低成本。我們的空置重新定位成本將會下降。正如凱文在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們將把更多的短途運輸業務轉交給內部承包。

Our storage revenue and warehouse utilization will improve. So we're certainly monitoring it closely, but once again haven't seen an impact at this point.

我們的倉儲收入和倉庫利用率將會提高。因此我們當然在密切監視它，但目前還沒有看到影響。

And what's like the typical lag from when it shows up at a port to when it shows up in your volume. And do you have a sense, is there a lot of freight at the ports or near the ports and warehouses that they're still, like that was built up to like -- you still have volume to move even if there's not a lot of new stuff coming into the ports. Is that possibly happening?

從它出現在連接埠到它出現在磁碟區中，典型的延遲是怎樣的？您是否感覺到，港口或港口和倉庫附近是否仍有大量貨物，就像那樣建造的貨物——即使沒有很多新貨物進入港口，仍然有大量貨物需要運輸。這有可能發生嗎？

Yes, I would agree with you. I think it takes a few weeks and we haven't seen that show up yet. But yes, indications are there's still good amount of warehouses and still clearing through the port infrastructure. So yes. But we're staying very close with our customers on it. And once again, it's going to vary by customer and by end market and by product type.

是的，我同意你的看法。我認為這需要幾週的時間，但我們還沒有看到結果。但確實，有跡象表明仍有大量倉庫，並且仍在清理港口基礎設施。是的。但我們與客戶一直保持著密切的聯繫。再次強調，它會根據客戶、終端市場和產品類型而改變。

And so, it really varies by customer and we're -- so we're having to stay very close and just really watch those day-to-day, week-to-week award compliances and forecasts from our clients.

所以，這確實因客戶而異，所以我們必須密切注意並真正關注客戶每天、每週的獎勵遵守情況和預測。

And then last one, I'll pass it off. Any update you can give us just on bid season and what kind of pricing you're seeing?

最後一個，我會把它傳遞下去。您能否向我們提供有關投標季節的最新消息以及您所看到的定價？

Yes. I would say it's competitive, but certainly not irrational. If you look at Q1, there was actually a pull forward of bids. We had about 48% of our business gets bid in Q1 which we think was actually advantageous for intermodal. Truckload, carriers came out with a little bit more aggression on rate. That led our customers, I think, to look at the cost differential, as well as the service products we're delivering in intermodal and push a little bit more conversion than they may have otherwise.

是的。我想說這是有競爭力的，但肯定不是不合理的。如果你看一下第一季度，你會發現投標實際上已經提前了。我們第一季約有 48% 的業務獲得了投標，我們認為這實際上對多式聯運有利。卡車運輸方面，承運商對費率採取了更激進的態度。我認為，這促使我們的客戶專注於成本差異以及我們透過聯運提供的服務產品，並推動比其他方式更多的轉換。

In Q2, 38% of our business is getting bid out. I would say it's been a little bit more aggressive, which is leading us to really say we think flattish on pricing for the full year. But we've executed our bid plan. We've done really well in back hauling's and efficient business for our drivers. We're growing well in the East and in Mexico, and also with our temperature control products.

在第二季度，我們的 38% 的業務是透過招標完成的。我想說的是，它的定價有點激進，這讓我們真的認為全年的定價將持平。但我們已經執行了我們的競標計劃。我們在回程運輸方面做得非常出色，為我們的司機提供了高效率的業務。我們的業務在東部和墨西哥發展良好，我們的溫度控制產品也是如此。

We've added 50 new logos thus far through bid season. So really pleased with those results. And I think the focus for us to keep delivering a great service product, keep reducing costs so we can compete and win, and we'll be in a good position, as we see volume normalize.

截至目前，我們在競標季節已增加了 50 個新標誌。我對這些結果非常滿意。我認為我們的重點是繼續提供優質的服務產品，不斷降低成本，這樣我們才能競爭並獲勝，隨著交易量正常化，我們將處於有利地位。

And Scott, this is Kevin. Just our normal cadence on bids is about 30% to 35% in first quarter and about 35% in second quarter. So you can see that, that bid pull forward that Phil was talking about.

斯科特，這是凱文。我們正常的投標節奏是第一季約為 30% 至 35%，第二季約為 35%。所以你可以看到，菲爾談論的是提前出價。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna Financial Group.

巴斯科姆梅傑斯、薩斯奎漢納金融集團。

Maybe adding a little more qualitative commentary to that. Can you walk through how your conversations with your largest customers, which are the largest retailers, with sophisticated ways to deal with this situation. How has that evolved over the last six, seven weeks? And are your forecast in the kind of high- and low-end scenarios of revenue that you talked about tied to what they're sharing with you for their forecast?

也許可以對此添加一些更定性的評論。您能否介紹一下您與最大的客戶（也就是最大的零售商）的對話，以及如何採用複雜的方法來處理這種情況。過去六、七週內情況有何變化？您對高端和低端收入情境的預測是否與他們與您分享的預測有關？

Just trying to understand how quickly this is moving and how much visibility you think you do or don't have at this point?

只是想了解這件事進展得有多快，以及您認為目前您有多少可見度？

Sure. Yes, this is Phil. So I think we do anticipate a drop in import demand in the second half of the second quarter. I think the scenarios or potential outcomes we're trying to lay out are, if we see a quick rebound and things snap back really quickly and we're getting surcharges, then you're at that high end of the range that we gave you. If it's really prolonged and you start to see it impact the consumer, you could be at that low end.

當然。是的，我是菲爾。因此我認為我們確實預計第二季下半期進口需求會下降。我認為，我們試圖列出的情景或潛在結果是，如果我們看到快速反彈，情況迅速好轉，並且我們獲得了附加費，那麼您就處於我們給出的範圍的高端。如果這種情況真的持續很久，並且你開始看到它對消費者產生影響，那麼你可能就處於低端。

And based on what we know, there's probably somewhere in the middle that things will land. And so that's kind of the midpoint of the range. And based on what we're seeing with our customers, the discussions we've had with them, there is some pull forward that's occurred, certainly. I mean, you look at our January volumes up 18%, there was certainly pull forward. But not enough where inventories are overstocked at this point.

根據我們目前所知，事情可能會以中間某種方式結束。這就是範圍的中點。根據我們與客戶的情況以及我們與他們的討論，確實出現了一些進展。我的意思是，你看我們一月份的銷量成長了 18%，這肯定是有成長的。但目前庫存過剩的情況還不夠。

And there's also a whole lot of seasonal shipping that needs to occur that hasn't taken place yet. So our customers, many had already been proactive in diversifying their supply chains and vendor base and others are reacting more in real time. So I would tell you it's also quite varied in how people have managed through it. Those that were more concentrated on Chinese imports pulled forward, those that didn't, are taking that wait-and-see approach.

而且還有一大堆需要進行但尚未進行的季節性運輸。因此，在我們的客戶中，許多已經積極主動地實現其供應鏈和供應商基礎的多樣化，而其他客戶則更能即時做出反應。所以我想告訴你，人們解決這個問題的方法也是多種多樣的。那些更關注中國進口產品的公司提前採取行動，而那些沒有這樣做的公司則採取觀望態度。

And so it really has been a mix. But once again, we're watching it closely. And this is based -- the guidance is really based on those variety of potential outcomes and informed by the discussions we're having with our customers and what we anticipate happening.

所以這確實是一種混合現象。但我們再次密切關注此事。這是基於——該指導實際上是基於各種潛在結果，並根據我們與客戶的討論以及我們預期發生的情況而製定的。

Yes, this is Kevin. I'll just add. Certainly, we're taking as many data points as we can get our hands on when we're coming up with our scenarios. So yes, that factors in what we're hearing from customers, but also what we're reading and what's available publicly. And this last thing I'd add is, the primary impact, at least in the near term, would be ITS or intermodal.

是的，這是凱文。我僅補充一點。當然，當我們提出我們的方案時，我們會盡可能收集數據點。是的，這不僅包括我們從客戶那裡聽到的訊息，還包括我們閱讀的內容和公開的資訊。我最後要補充的是，至少在短期內，主要影響將是 ITS 或多式聯運。

Our other businesses are going to be somewhat more resilient through this. Our managed transportation business is not as import heavy. Our warehousing business is going to see an influx of storage demand likely. And so we have some offsets. And obviously, we're doing a good job managing costs to ensure we're in a good position.

我們的其他業務將會因此變得更有韌性。我們的管理運輸業務並不那麼重要。我們的倉儲業務可能會面臨大量的儲存需求。因此我們有一些補償。顯然，我們在成本管理方面做得很好，以確保我們處於良好的地位。

And finally, one thing I would add is, this really gives Hub that opportunity to work with our customers and show them that we can save them money and come up with better transportation spend to really meet their needs. So that is an opportunity that we're trying to take advantage of as well.

最後，我想補充一點，這確實為 Hub 提供了與客戶合作的機會，並向他們展示我們可以為他們節省資金，並提供更好的運輸支出來真正滿足他們的需求。所以這也是我們正在努力利用的一個機會。

And if we work backwards from the holidays through this uncertainty and just think about retail inventory needing to move inland and hit store shelves by November, early December, when do you think that you'll have the visibility in those decisions on how to manage through this will be made by those customers?

如果我們從假期開始回溯這種不確定性，想想零售庫存需要在 11 月或 12 月初轉移到內陸並上架商店，您認為什麼時候才能清楚地了解這些決策將由客戶做出嗎？

Yes. I think there's certainly an air pocket of freight that's coming. I think there is going to be some replacement of that from other origin points. They're, once again, are those seasonal items, back-to-school, Halloween that are going to need to be brought in or you're going to miss sales. And then I think for the holidays, you typically see Q3 be our strongest shipping quarter.

是的。我認為肯定會有一股貨運之旅正在到來。我認為其他起源點將會對此進行某種替代。再說一遍，它們是那些季節性商品，返校季、萬聖節時都需要購買，否則你就會錯過銷售機會。然後我認為在假期期間，您通常會看到第三季度是我們最強勁的運輸季度。

August -- late August, September and then October are normally our strongest shipping months to get that products. You're really seeing those decisions in the July time frame -- late June or early July. And we should hopefully start to see it in the data at that point. I think if there's clarity around trade, people are -- the consumers remaining resilient and people are going to ship.

八月－八月下旬、九月和十月通常是我們運送該產品最活躍的月份。您實際上會在 7 月（6 月底或 7 月初）看到這些決定。我們希望到那時就能在數據中看到它。我認為，如果貿易情勢明朗，消費者就會保持韌性，人們就會出貨。

And once again, inventories just haven't been overly built in a lot of the segments that we operate in. So we're keeping a close eye on it, and we'll certainly continue to stay very close to our customers.

再說一次，在我們經營的許多領域中，庫存還沒有過度增加。因此，我們會密切關注此事，並且一定會繼續與客戶保持密切聯繫。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯陳（Bruce Chan），Stifel。

Kevin, you talked about some of the additional levers that you can pull on to offset some of the pressure of the environment, kind of trends towards the bear side of the outlook, and that was certainly helpful. Specific to headcount, last year, I think you talked about headcount being down about, I want to say, 3%. Where was headcount this quarter? And if you think about a potential deterioration in the market, where can that number sort of go to?

凱文，您談到了一些可以利用的額外槓桿，以抵消部分環境壓力，以及前景看跌的趨勢，這當然是有幫助的。具體到員工人數，去年，我想您談到員工人數下降了約 3%。本季員工人數是多少？如果您考慮到市場可能出現的惡化，那麼這個數字將會如何？

Yes. This is Phil. I'll start. So headcount was down 7%. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we have about $40 million of cost cuts that we're executing on. Half of that has been implemented really at the time of the call. So you start to see that kind of back half of Q2 and more materially in the third quarter and we'll implement the remainder as the year progresses.

是的。這是菲爾。我先開始。因此員工人數減少了7%。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們正在實施約 4000 萬美元的成本削減計劃。其中一半在通話時已經真正實施。因此，您將在第二季後半段看到這種變化，並在第三季看到更多實質變化，而我們將在今年年底前實施剩餘的變化。

But 2/3 of that about is purchase transportation. So drayage, truckload, LTL as well as temporary labor in the warehouses. The other 1/3 is more salaries and benefits weighted with the reduction in headcount, not backfilling roles that are necessary, but we're also doing a really nice job and have made some significant reductions in our outsourced labor there as well.

但其中約三分之二是購買交通工具。因此，包括短程運輸、整車運輸、零擔運輸以及倉庫中的臨時勞動力。另外 1/3 是更多的工資和福利，加上員工人數的減少，而不是填補必要的職位，但我們也做得很好，並且在那裡大幅減少了外包勞動力。

So once again, we're controlling what we can. We want to be in a position where we can support our customers as we see a rebound in demand as well. So we're certainly being thoughtful in our approach around it, but obviously see opportunities to reduce costs as well.

因此，我們再次強調，我們正在控制我們所能控制的一切。我們希望能夠在需求反彈的同時為客戶提供支援。因此，我們在處理這個問題時當然會深思熟慮，但顯然也看到了降低成本的機會。

Yes. Just to add that. We also have -- some of our technology implementations are paying off. We're seeing some reduced spend in our outsourced support systems that we needed for some legacy IT, as well as the consulting on the IT spend is coming down as well. So we have pretty much every facet we've looked under, and we're finding things that are allowing us to decrease costs.

是的。只是想補充一下。我們的一些技術實施也正在取得成效。我們發現，一些傳統 IT 所需的外包支援系統的支出減少，而且 IT 諮詢支出也在下降。因此，我們幾乎研究了所有方面，並找到了可以降低成本的方法。

And as Phil mentioned, several of those programs have already been implemented. Other ones are being implemented as we speak. And so we'll see some of that benefit grow as the year progresses.

正如菲爾所提到的，其中一些計劃已經實施。我們正在實施其他措施。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會看到部分收益不斷增長。

And these improvements are on top of the reductions we made in the network alignment initiative. And I think the team has done a great job in reducing empty repositioning costs, which were down 17% year-over-year in the quarter. And then we have also been reducing insurance expense. Team has done a great job in reducing accident frequency and severity. And so that has been a tailwind as well.

這些改進是我們在網路協調計劃中所做的削減的基礎上做出的。我認為團隊在降低空置重新定位成本方面做得很好，本季空置重新定位成本年減了 17%。而且我們也一直在減少保險費用。團隊在降低事故發生頻率和嚴重程度方面做出了巨大貢獻。所以這也是一種順風。

And then maybe just for the follow-up, looking for some updates on EASO in terms of business trends. I know you mentioned that the Mexican volumes there are pretty strong. Any evidence of sourcing shifts there yet? And if you think about M&A, we've talked about that a lot in the past. But specific to Mexico, do you feel like there's still opportunity to kind of fortify your presence there? Or do you think that you're pretty well built out?

然後也許只是為了後續行動，尋找有關 EASO 業務趨勢的一些更新。我知道您提到墨西哥的產量相當強勁。有任何證據表明那裡的採購發生了變化嗎？如果你考慮併購，我們過去已經討論過很多次了。但具體到墨西哥，您是否覺得還有機會加強您在當地的影響力？還是你認為你的身材已經很好了？

Yes. I would say EASO has been a fantastic joint venture, and we've been off to a great start. Our volumes were about 4x on a year-over-year basis, and we're cross-selling really well, have some significant opportunities we're working on with our rail partners, and it's very exciting. We have seen erratic shipping patterns with some of the news around tariffs being on and off.

是的。我想說 EASO 是一家出色的合資企業，我們已經有了一個好的開始。我們的銷量年增了約 4 倍，而且我們的交叉銷售非常好，我們正在與鐵路合作夥伴合作一些重要的機會，這非常令人興奮。我們看到了不穩定的運輸模式，一些有關關稅的消息時斷時續。

So I think the more we get clarity there, the better. But for the time being, most of our customers are back to normal shipping, and we're seeing increases in volume just on an organic basis, even before some of the cross-selling and obviously, just the upside from having EASO in our numbers. We are continuing to look at acquisition opportunities.

所以我認為我們對此了解得越清楚越好。但就目前而言，我們的大多數客戶都已恢復正常運輸，我們看到銷量在有機基礎上有所增長，甚至在一些交叉銷售之前就已經有所增長，顯然，這只是 EASO 為我們帶來的好處。我們將繼續尋找收購機會。

We have a really good pipeline right now, some really interesting opportunities. I do think adding more solutions to support our customers in Mexico over time will be the right approach. And so we're certainly going to be opportunistic within that. We also have a lot of interesting opportunities in the space right now that will help us continue to build scale and differentiation in the existing service lines. So a lot of good opportunities.

我們現在有一個非常好的管道，一些非常有趣的機會。我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，增加更多的解決方案來支持我們在墨西哥的客戶是正確的方法。因此，我們肯定會抓住機會。目前，我們在該領域也有很多有趣的機會，這將有助於我們繼續在現有服務系列中擴大規模並實現差異化。所以有很多好機會。

Uday Khanapurkar, TD Cowen.

Uday Khanapurkar，TD Cowen。

This is Uday on for Jason Seidl. I guess, just one on surcharges. Your guide originally called for modest peak season surcharges kind of preempting the pull forward. Are we still expecting that kind of in the base case? And maybe secondly, on the high end, are you assuming we see surcharges maybe earlier in the year than usual if this air pocket kind of gives way to a big influx?

這是烏代 (Uday) 代替傑森·塞德爾 (Jason Seidl)。我想，只有一項關於附加費。您的指南最初要求在旺季收取適度的附加費，以阻止提前收費。我們是否仍期待基本情況會出現這種情況？其次，從高端來看，您是否認為如果這種氣穴現象導致大量湧入，我們可能會比往常更早看到附加費？

Sure. Yes, this is Kevin. I'll take that one. To answer your question on surcharges, the base case, there is none incorporated in the base case. Certainly, in the pull case, yes, surcharges are contemplated, not to the level that we saw last year of $5.5 million.

當然。是的，這是凱文。我要那個。回答您關於附加費的問題，基本情況是，基本情況下沒有附加費。當然，在拉動的情況下，是的，考慮收取附加費，但不會達到我們去年看到的 550 萬美元的水平。

But the timing of it is really in question. I think that's really -- one of the big things that is unknown at this time, that depending on when and if tariffs change or as Phil spoke about earlier, if that restocking really comes at a certain time, that is probably when we would see the surcharges. But without knowing what's going to happen with tariffs, it's really hard to predict when that would happen.

但其時機確實值得懷疑。我認為這確實是——目前未知的重大事情之一，這取決於關稅何時以及是否發生變化，或者正如菲爾之前所說的那樣，如果補貨確實在某個時間發生，那麼我們很可能就會看到附加費。但如果不知道關稅會發生什麼，就很難預測何時會發生。

And then maybe just another clarification. I mean you said it was advantageous that a big chunk of bid got pulled into 1Q. Is that indicating that the intermodal pricing environment sort of deteriorated into 2Q and that we need some kind of stabilization in the second half to get to the flat year-on-year?

然後也許只是另一個澄清。我的意思是，您說將大量投標納入第一季是有利的。這是否表明多式聯運定價環境在第二季度有所惡化，我們需要在下半年實現某種程度的穩定，才能實現同比持平？

No, I think what we were seeing at the initial onset of bid season was more aggressive truckload pricing and trying to push rates up and intermodal was remaining similar to what we talked about, taking some rate in head hauls, still very aggressive in backhauls. What we've seen now in the second portion of bid season is just more truckload competition.

不，我認為我們在投標季節開始時看到的是更激進的整車定價，並試圖提高費率，而聯運仍然與我們談論的情況類似，在主程運輸中收取一定的費率，在回程運輸中仍然非常激進。我們現在在投標季節的第二部分看到的只是更多的卡車競爭。

So not really any change in the intermodal space. It's been more -- or I guess, less opportunities for near-term conversion just given some of the pricing that we're seeing from truckload carriers. But we're still winning in the market. I mean we have a really good spread versus truck right now, around 30% in aggregate, and we have a really good value proposition with service.

因此，多式聯運領域實際上並沒有任何變化。考慮到我們從卡車運輸公司看到的一些定價，我猜短期轉換的機會更多——或者更少。但我們在市場上仍然獲勝。我的意思是，我們目前相對於卡車的價差確實很大，總計約為 30%，而且我們的服務具有非常好的價值主張。

I think the other thing is our customers are recognizing that if the consumer holds, there is going to be some significant shipping demand in the back half. And so they want to make sure they're locking in that capacity and intermodal is obviously a good opportunity, one, to reduce cost in the supply chain but two, make sure they're locking in capacity if there is a surge.

我認為另一件事是我們的客戶意識到，如果消費者堅持下去，下半年就會出現大量的運輸需求。因此，他們希望確保鎖定這種容量，而多式聯運顯然是一個很好的機會，第一，可以降低供應鏈成本；第二，如果出現激增，確保他們鎖定容量。

Maybe if I can squeeze one on dedicated. I mean, how many bid seasons do you think it will take to kind of get rates to kind of the previous high watermarks in the previous cycle? Any thoughts on that?

也許如果我可以在專用上擠一個。我的意思是，您認為需要多少個投標季才能使利率達到上一周期的高水位？對此有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. So Dedicated is multi-year contracts. So we're constantly having renewals every year. Right now, it's a little bit more competitive with one way. The rates are typically based off of driver pay with a fixed and variable portion. And while it's been somewhat more aggressive, and we're still doing a really good job on renewals, and we've done a lot of self-help on controlling costs and improving our operating performance, which is really supporting those improved margins on a year-over-year basis.

是的。因此，Dedicated 是多年期合約。因此我們每年都會不斷進行更新。目前，單向競爭稍微激烈一些。費率通常基於駕駛員工資，分為固定部分和浮動部分。雖然我們的措施有些激進，但我們在續約方面仍然做得很好，而且我們在控製成本和提高營運績效方面做了很多自我改進，這確實支持了利潤率的逐年提高。

So we feel as though there's still opportunities regardless of what's going on with rate, and we'll constantly every year be renewing contracts and if wages are going up, we'll be taking rates up and vice versa. So right now, though, obviously, a competitive environment, but we're holding on really well with strong renewals, strong service levels and we are being proactive with our customers and identifying efficiency opportunities.

因此，我們覺得無論工資如何變化，仍然有機會，我們每年都會不斷續簽合同，如果工資上漲，我們就會提高工資，反之亦然。因此，雖然現在顯然是一個競爭激烈的環境，但我們透過強勁的更新、強大的服務水準保持了良好的狀態，並且我們正在積極主動地為客戶服務並尋找提高效率的機會。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬納森·查佩爾（Jonathan Chappell），Evercore ISI。

Kevin, just trying to put a pin on some of these things, which I understand are difficult to put a pin on just given the uncertainty. But in the guidance in February, looking for high single-digit intermodal volume growth and low single-digit pricing increases, given what you said for the midpoint today, volume decreases in the second half of 2Q, return to directional seasonality, ITS pricing flat for the rest of the year. What would that translate to for full year intermodal volume growth and pricing?

凱文，我只是想對其中一些事情做出解釋，我知道，由於存在不確定性，這些事情很難得到解釋。但在 2 月的指導中，我們期待聯運量實現高個位數增長，價格實現低個位數上漲，考慮到您今天所說的中點，第二季度下半年運輸量將下降，回歸季節性，而 ITS 價格將在今年剩餘時間內保持平穩。這對於全年聯運量成長和定價意味著什麼？

Thank you, Jon for the question. Yes, we're not -- due to the varying scenarios that we really came up with and the uncertainty, we're not providing full year forecasted volume numbers at this time. Like you said, we do anticipate a slowdown here in the second half of this quarter. But just without having some visibility into when that whiplash could come back and how strong that is, we're not providing those amounts this time.

謝謝喬恩提出的問題。是的，由於我們實際想到的各種情況以及不確定性，我們目前無法提供全年預測的數量。正如您所說，我們確實預計本季下半年經濟將放緩。但由於我們不清楚這種衝擊何時會再次發生以及強度有多大，因此我們這次不會提供這些金額。

And on the pricing side, if it were to be flat from today, would that be -- would that still be positive year-over-year in the second half? Or would that be kind of closer to flat year-over-year?

在定價方面，如果從今天開始持平，那麼下半年的年比漲幅是否還會是正數？或者說與去年同期相比持平？

Yes, it would be pretty close to flat for year-over-year. And like Phil said, we do have good visibility to that with the bids being pulled forward. So it will be dependent on how the mix ends up being, and that is, again, making sure how compliant customers are with what they're telling us and sticking to their actual guide of freight that they originally projected.

是的，與去年同期相比幾乎持平。正如菲爾所說，隨著投標的推進，我們確實對此有了很好的了解。因此，這將取決於最終的組合結果，也就是說，再次確保客戶對他們告訴我們的內容的遵守程度，並堅持他們最初預測的實際貨運指南。

One just quick last follow-up. Again, in Feb, you were looking for a normalization of incentive comp, which I think you had expected to be a headwind. You talked about all the great things you're doing on the cost side. Is that dialed down a bit as well? Or do you still kind of expect the same instead of comp headwind year-over-year '25 versus '24?

這只是最後一次快速跟進。再說一次，在二月份，你正在尋求激勵補償的正常化，我認為你已經預料到這將是一個阻力。您談到了在成本方面所做的所有偉大的事情。這是否也調低了一點？或者您仍然有相同的預期，而不是 25 年與 24 年相比出現同比逆風？

Yes. I think overall, we still expect some headwind there, but it is being muted a little bit now with the change in the actual headcount itself.

是的。我認為總體而言，我們仍然預期會有一些阻力，但隨著實際員工人數的變化，阻力已經減弱。

Brian Ossenbeck, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So maybe just a broader question on the network -- intermodal network and the utilization of it and sort of the balance overall. It sounded like you had some pretty good reduction in empty repositioning costs. But maybe you can elaborate a little bit more on that. Do you still see pockets that are maybe a little bit less dense than you would like? Or were you able to address those during bid season?

所以也許只是一個關於網路的更廣泛的問題——多式聯運網路及其利用率以及整體的平衡。聽起來你的空置重新定位成本已經大大減少了。但也許您可以對此進行更詳細的闡述。您是否仍然看到一些密度比您想像的要低一點的口袋？或者您是否能夠在投標季節解決這些問題？

No, we are pleased with the progress on empty repos even with that January pull forward of freight, reducing repo cost 17%, we felt like it was a really good outcome for us, and that was due to those bid wins and creating better balance and velocity. And so we're pleased with that. We think we've continued to execute well in bids on the targeted lanes.

不，我們對空回購的進展感到滿意，即使 1 月份提前了運費，將回購成本降低了 17%，我們覺得這對我們來說是一個非常好的結果，這是由於這些投標勝利並創造了更好的平衡和速度。我們對此感到高興。我們認為我們在目標航線的競標中繼續表現良好。

We'll likely see a step down just with the unknown of how far West Coast volumes drop with this import air pocket. But -- so we'll see another step down just due to less demand off the West Coast. But I think we're controlling what we can control. And long term, you still want to be filling in those backhaul lanes. So we've done a good job with that.

我們很可能會看到產量下降，但不知道西海岸的產量會因為這個進口氣穴而下降多少。但是——由於西海岸需求減少，我們將看到再次下降。但我認為我們正在控制我們能夠控制的事情。從長遠來看，您仍然希望填補這些回程航線。所以我們在這方面做得很好。

The growth in the East is going to continue to create more balance and velocity there. Turn times in total were about 4% better on a year-over-year basis. So we're pleased with that as well. And so we're getting more out of what we have on the street. We need to keep that momentum. But yes, it's about continuing to win in the right lanes, and we're going out and executing on that.

東部地區的成長將繼續創造更多的平衡和速度。與去年同期相比，總週轉時間縮短了約 4%。所以我們對此也感到高興。因此，我們可以從街頭獲得的資源中獲得更多。我們需要保持這種勢頭。但沒錯，這是為了繼續在正確的道路上取得勝利，而我們正在為此努力。

And it sounds like rail service is performing pretty well despite the volatility and the uncertainty based on the comments on downturn times? And how is that translating to truckload conversion? It sounds like the spread is pretty favorable, but I'm assuming rail service is a big part of that conversation, too.

從經濟低迷時期的評論來看，儘管存在波動性和不確定性，但鐵路服務似乎表現良好？那麼，這與卡車裝載量轉換有何關係？聽起來傳播情況相當有利，但我認為鐵路服務也是這個主題的重要組成部分。

Absolutely. Rail service has been really phenomenal and resilient. Both of our partners are performing very well. I think as you think about what could potentially happen with more of a surge in import demand, I feel far more confident in our ability to manage that surge as an intermodal network than we were in the past just given the resilience of the operating models of our rail partners.

絕對地。鐵路服務確實非常出色且富有彈性。我們的兩個合作夥伴都表現得非常出色。我認為，當您考慮進口需求激增可能帶來的影響時，考慮到我們鐵路合作夥伴運營模式的彈性，我對我們作為多式聯運網絡管理這種激增的能力比過去更加有信心。

So we're excited about that. And same with us. I think we've certainly learned a lot through the last few years and built more resilience into our service product as well. So we feel very good about managing that for our customers. And -- but once again, rail service has been really strong.

所以我們對此感到很興奮。我們也一樣。我認為我們在過去幾年中確實學到了很多東西，也為我們的服務產品增強了彈性。因此，我們很高興能為客戶實現這一目標。而且——但再次強調，鐵路服務確實非常強勁。

Last follow-up on the same sort of topic. What do you feel about stacked boxes and where they are, given we have seen some pretty big differences in the growth in different regions. So I guess, maybe an update in terms of just general positioning for boxes, other equipment and dray and what's the current percentage stacked? If you can give that.

同一主題的最後一次跟進。鑑於我們已經看到不同地區的成長存在相當大的差異，您對堆疊的箱子及其所在位置有何看法？所以我想，也許只是對箱子、其他設備和運貨馬車的整體定位進行更新，以及目前堆疊的百分比是多少？如果你能給予的話。

Yes, we have somewhere around approximately 20%, 25% of our boxes stacked at this moment in time. We think we have about 35% incremental capacity before we have to really put any capital into containers. So we have a long way to go. We did improve our insourced dray percentage by about 400 basis points sequentially.

是的，目前我們大約有 20% 到 25% 的箱子堆放著。我們認為，在真正向容器領域投入資金之前，我們的產能將增加約 35%。所以我們還有很長的路要走。我們確實將內部採購率連續提高了約 400 個基點。

We've done a really nice job here in the second quarter thus far. So we should see another step-up on insourced dray percentage. And we're doing some targeted hiring, but really just getting more utility out of our existing team. And so we feel good about the momentum there. And I think we have plenty of capacity and on the drayage on the street, we're doing a really good job. So a lot of good work by the team.

到目前為止，我們在第二季做得非常出色。因此，我們應該會看到內部運輸比例再次上升。我們正在進行一些有針對性的招聘，但實際上只是想從現有團隊中獲得更多效用。因此，我們對那裡的發展勢頭感到滿意。我認為我們有足夠的運力，而且在街道運輸方面，我們做得非常好。團隊做了很多出色的工作。

Thomas Wadewitz, UBS.

瑞銀的 Thomas Wadewitz。

Wanted to ask you, I know there's not a lot of visibility on volume, right? And you kind of gave us some of the parameters for how to think about that or high level. If we said, well, for 2Q and kind of sequentially, would you -- what's your kind of base case for 2Q intermodal volumes versus 1Q? April sounds like it looked pretty good, but you think full quarter is down or maybe kind of flat factoring in some softening later in the quarter? How would you think about that?

想問你一下，我知道音量的可見度不是很高，對嗎？您給了我們一些關於如何思考這個問題或高層次問題的參數。如果我們說，那麼，對於第二季度和連續的情況，你會——與第一季相比，您對第二季聯運量的基本情況是什麼？四月份的情況聽起來不錯，但您認為整個季度的銷售額會下降，或者可能持平，因為本季後期銷售額會有所下降？您對此有何看法？

Yes. This is Phil. I think it's a little unclear what the drop will be and the timing of it. If we're still plenty being transloaded and still in warehouses, that's going to delay that drop. Once again, we haven't seen it in our numbers yet. So if it's three weeks out, I would tell you, we're still anticipating volumes being up. If it's in the next two weeks, then that could vary. But at this point, I would tell you, we're still anticipating volume growth for the quarter, but it really does depend on how large that drop is and what the timing is as well.

是的。這是菲爾。我認為下降幅度和下降時間尚不明確。如果仍有大量貨物正在轉運並存放在倉庫中，那麼下降速度就會延緩。再一次，我們還沒有在數據中看到這一點。因此，如果時間是三週後，我會告訴你，我們仍然預期交易量會增加。如果是在接下來的兩週內，那麼情況可能會有所不同。但目前，我想告訴你，我們仍然預期本季銷量會成長，但這確實取決於下降幅度和時間。

Okay. And so volume growth sequentially or year-over-year?

好的。那麼銷量是環比成長還是年成長？

I would say year-over-year. Sequentially, it's probably unlikely, I would guess. But once again, it's hard to know. If we're in the second week of June and we still have product flowing, then we're going to be up. And I think at the same time, we tried to give an indication of the exposure we have to China imports. I think our customers have diversified their supply chains.

我想說的是逐年增加。從順序上來說，我猜這不太可能。但再次強調，這仍然很難知道。如果到了六月的第二週，我們仍有產品流通，那麼我們的銷售量就會上升。我認為同時，我們也試圖表明我們對中國進口的曝險。我認為我們的客戶已經實現了供應鏈多樣化。

And if 25% of our West Coast volumes are port-related and 30% of that is China, it shouldn't be an outsized impact. And we've done really well with growth in Mexico and growth in the local East. So those should be some offsets to that import demand drop.

如果我們西海岸 25% 的貨運量與港口有關，而其中 30% 來自中國，那麼影響應該不會太大。我們在墨西哥和當地東部地區都取得了非常好的成長。因此這些應該可以抵消進口需求下降的影響。

Wanted to also ask you a bit about how you're thinking about ITS and logistics operating margins looking forward. Do you think kind of stable -- I mean, I know 2Q has got the wrinkle with some weakening in volume. But how do you think about where we go from the kind of 2.7% and 5.7% in 1Q? And what might be some key levers to potentially see improvement off the 1Q level?

也想問一下您對未來 ITS 和物流營運利潤率的看法。您認為這種穩定嗎？我的意思是，我知道第二季出現了一些問題，交易量已經減弱。但是您認為我們在第一季的 2.7% 和 5.7% 之後會達到什麼水平？那麼，哪些關鍵因素可能有助於實現第一季水準的改善？

Sure. Tom, this is Kevin. We don't provide quarterly guidance on this. But what I will tell you is, again, it depends on that timing and if there is that falloff. But without that, we would expect to see the directional normal seasonal increases that you would see in third and fourth quarter for both ITS and for logistics. I think right now, second quarter is a little bit more up in the air. If there really is the falloff that everyone is talking about with the imports, then that may be sequentially down.

當然。湯姆，這是凱文。我們不提供這方面的季度指引。但我要告訴你的是，這取決於時機以及是否會出現衰退。但如果沒有這些，我們預計在第三季和第四季，ITS 和物流都會出現正常的季節性成長。我認為現在第二季的情況還有些不確定。如果進口量真的像大家談論的那樣下降，那麼進口量可能會連續下降。

Okay. So probably versus 1Q, some improvement in the second half, but less clear for 2Q?

好的。那麼與第一季相比，下半年可能會有所改善，但第二季的情況可能不太明朗？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And again, those cost items that we talked about, the $40 million of different projects that we have, they're going to be kicking in. And I think we'll be able to help even if there is some muted volume in the second half, especially maybe in the beginning of July.

再說一次，我們談到的那些成本項目，即我們擁有的 4000 萬美元的不同項目，都將開始生效。我認為，即使下半年的交易量有所減弱，我們仍然能夠提供幫助，尤其是在七月初。

Okay. Maybe one last one, and I'll hand it off. But what do you think about the kind of the key lever for intermodal margin improvement? You used to run at a lot higher level, and I feel like it's just been the big weight on truckload and intermodal has just been excess capacity and difficulty getting rate. Is that really the thing you just got to get a stronger rate environment. And then that intermodal margin improves a fair bit? Or what's kind of the key lever if you look a little further out?

好的。也許這是最後一個，然後我就把它交出去了。但是您如何看待提高聯運利潤率的關鍵槓桿？您過去常常以更高的水平運行，但我覺得現在只是卡車裝載量過大，而聯運的運力過剩，難以獲得費率。這真的是獲得更強利率環境所需要的東西嗎？那麼聯運利潤率是否會提高不少呢？或者如果你看得更遠一點，關鍵槓桿是什麼樣的？

Yes, this is Phil. I mean, I don't really recall when we were running at a much higher margin. I think we've actually done a great job improving the trough-to-trough margin profile and actually more than doubling it. So I feel like we've actually done a great job. We did run higher in COVID when our boxes were being used for storage. But yes, so I guess that would be the time where it was higher.

是的，我是菲爾。我的意思是，我真的不記得我們什麼時候有過這麼高的利潤率。我認為我們在改善谷底利潤率方面確實做得很好，實際上將其提高了一倍以上。所以我覺得我們實際上做得很好。當我們的箱子被用來儲存東西時，我們的 COVID 感染率確實更高。但是的，所以我想那應該是它更高的時候。

But at the same time, I think we do need more velocity in the network. That's priority one. We need to continue to in-source more drayage, which right now, we're running over 80%. We've got our chassis programs in place. We've got variable rate in our rail contracts. So yes, I mean, I still think mid-cycle, this is a mid-single-digit operating margin business in that 5% to 6% range.

但同時，我認為我們確實需要更快的網路速度。這是首要任務。我們需要繼續引進更多的短程運輸，目前，我們的短程運輸量已超過 80%。我們的底盤程序已經到位。我們的鐵路合約採用浮動利率。所以是的，我的意思是，我仍然認為在中期，這是一個中等個位數的營業利潤率業務，在 5% 到 6% 的範圍內。

And as you get to the peak of a cycle, it could be much higher than that. So demand would certainly help, but I think we've done a really good job controlling what we can control and improving the margins of the business.

當達到週期的頂峰時，它可能會比這高得多。因此需求肯定會有所幫助，但我認為我們在控制我們能夠控制的事情和提高業務利潤率方面做得非常好。

Certainly, price moves the lever easier than volume does, but that day is going to come. And I think we're ready for that growth opportunity.

當然，價格比交易量更容易推動槓桿，但那一天終將到來。我認為我們已經為這一成長機會做好了準備。

Christopher Kuhn, Benchmark Company.

克里斯多福‧庫恩（Christopher Kuhn），Benchmark 公司。

Can we just go back to the logistics margins? I mean they were up 70 basis points. The brokerage business still seems like a pretty big drag on that. I mean, are the other businesses within that improving margins? Or is that all just the actions you took last year? And what is the underlying margin in that business now that you've done a pretty good job despite the brokerage being a drag?

我們能回到物流利潤嗎？我的意思是它們上漲了 70 個基點。經紀業務似乎仍是這一領域的一大拖累。我的意思是，其中其他業務的利潤率是否正在提高？還是這只是你去年採取的行動？儘管經紀業務是個拖累，但你們現在做得相當不錯，那麼這項業務的潛在利潤是多少？

Yes, thank you for the question. Yes, we do agree we think we've done a very nice job improving the margins. The 70 basis points in this environment was pretty strong. If you look at it, on a year-over-year basis, there was a drag from the brokerage offsetting some of the improvements we made. In particular, in the consolidation business, where we've done a much better job on managing our labor expenses, improving customer retention levels, improving service and then obviously aligning our space to our needs.

是的，謝謝你的提問。是的，我們確實同意這一點，我們認為我們在提高利潤率方面做得非常好。在這種環境下，70個基點相當強勁。如果你看一下，你會發現與去年同期相比，經紀業務的拖累抵消了我們所做的一些改進。特別是在整合業務中，我們在管理勞動力成本、提高客戶保留率、改善服務以及根據我們的需求調整空間方面做得更好。

And we have some upside for growth, and that should certainly be helped with some of the storage needs of our customers. But yes, we're continuing to drive improvements in our managed transportation business in final mile as well as in warehousing. I think on the brokerage, it has been a headwind. We have done a nice job reducing our negative margin load.

我們具有一定的成長潛力，這肯定有助於滿足客戶的一些儲存需求。但是的，我們將繼續推動最後一哩路以及倉儲管理運輸業務的改進。我認為對於經紀業務來說，這是一個阻力。我們在降低負保證金負擔方面做得很好。

That was down over 200 basis points in the quarter. Our productivity continues to improve. But with the limited spot market opportunities that have been out there, it's kind of kept a lid on the margin profile, though we're still profitable within that segment. But no, I appreciate the question. I think we are doing a good job managing our costs there but also bringing on nice new profitable wins and see more margin upside ahead.

本季下降了 200 多個基點。我們的生產力不斷提高。但由於現貨市場機會有限，利潤率有所下降，儘管我們在該領域仍然可以獲利。但不，我很感謝你提出這個問題。我認為我們在成本管理方面做得很好，同時也帶來了新的盈利，並且看到了未來利潤率的進一步上升。

And just to your last comment, we haven't heard that maybe some shippers are keeping inventory in containers. I don't know if you're seeing that, but just curious as to whether that might be something you might see in the next quarter 2.

就您的最後一條評論而言，我們還沒有聽說有些托運人將庫存存放在貨櫃中。我不知道您是否看到了這一點，但我只是好奇這是否會是您在下個第二季度看到的東西。

We haven't seen that yet. And I think there may be some customers who overdo it on pull forward. We haven't seen it at that level yet, but certainly something we'll watch, but not -- we haven't seen that at this time.

我們還沒有看到這一點。我認為有些顧客在拉動時可能會做得太過頭了。我們還沒有看到這種程度的情況，但肯定會看到，但目前我們還沒有看到。

David Zazula, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的戴維‧扎祖拉 (David Zazula)。

Kevin, I noticed the lowering of the CapEx guide. I wonder if you could give some color on that. I think you said you already were not putting anything into containers this year. So what are you cutting? What areas are you kind of looking at to trim down the CapEx for the year?

凱文，我注意到資本支出指南降低。我不知道您是否可以對此作出一些解釋。我想您說過今年您已經沒有將任何東西放入容器中了。那你要剪什麼呢？您正在考慮從哪些方面削減今年的資本支出？

Sure. Yes, thank you for the question. Yes, the change in the CapEx, as you noted, went from $50 million to $70 million was the original. We're now down to $40 million to $50 million. It really reflects less fleet investment and steady upgrades in this environment. We're continuing to have no additional container investments. No change on our IT front. The projects that we had anticipated are we're still planning on it and moving forward with.

當然。是的，謝謝你的提問。是的，正如您所說，資本支出的變化從 5000 萬美元增加到了 7000 萬美元。現在我們的金額已降至 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。這確實反映了這種環境下船隊投資的減少和升級的穩定進行。我們將繼續不再進行任何額外的貨櫃投資。我們的 IT 方面沒有改變。我們預期的項目我們仍在規劃和推進中。

Really, one of the things that we were able to do is really find some solutions to be able to use some of our equipment down in Mexico. So that was an opportunity that allowed us to decrease that spend as well.

實際上，我們能夠做的事情之一就是找到一些解決方案，以便能夠在墨西哥使用我們的一些設備。所以這也是一個讓我們減少開支的機會。

And then on dedicated customer retention, I mean, you mentioned it is an issue, and I think it had been an issue in the past. Is it something that is accelerating? Is it something you're more concerned about now in the back half? Is this something that due to the unstable environment, just it's harder to get customers to resign contracts?

然後關於專用客戶保留，我的意思是，您提到這是一個問題，而且我認為這在過去也是一個問題。它是否正在加速發展？這是您現在更關心的後半部分的事情嗎？是因為環境不穩定，導致客戶續約變得更加困難？

Yes. This is Phil. I think the sites that we lost were pretty small and mostly turned over to one way truckload. And so our retention levels are still around 90% if you look at just on a contract basis and on a percent of revenue would be even higher than that, just given its smaller sites. So we feel as though we're in a good spot. We're providing really good service levels and being proactive on identifying efficiency opportunities.

是的。這是菲爾。我認為我們失去的站點非常小，並且大部分都轉移到了單向卡車上。因此，如果僅從合約角度來看，我們的保留率仍然在 90% 左右，而考慮到我們的站點較小，收入百分比甚至會更高。因此我們覺得自己處境很好。我們提供真正優質的服務水平，並積極主動地尋找提高效率的機會。

And as I mentioned, we have some new onboardings we're bringing on with actually some new and existing customers. So I think we're doing a good job managing that business. We have good operational controls. We just need to continue to execute, and we'll be in good shape.

正如我所提到的，我們實際上正在為一些新客戶和現有客戶引入一些新客戶。所以我認為我們在管理這項業務方面做得很好。我們有良好的營運控制。我們只需要繼續執行，我們就會處於良好狀態。

And I think when you look down the road, this is going to be an opportunity for growth. When those one-way rates change, we're going to be able to bounce back on with our dedicated solutions and hopefully win some contracts that way.

我認為，當你展望未來時，這將是一個成長的機會。當這些單向費率發生變化時，我們將能夠透過我們的專用解決方案恢復元氣，並希望以此方式贏得一些合約。

With you bringing in some new customers or additional volume with additional customers, is the end market profile of Dedicated changing at all? Are there some types of customers where it's easier to get them to look at Dedicated now versus a year ago or two years ago?

隨著您引進一些新客戶或增加新客戶而增加銷量，Dedicated 的終端市場狀況是否會改變？與一年前或兩年前相比，現在是否有某些類型的客戶更容易關注 Dedicated？

Yes. Most of our Dedicated business is retail-centric and the -- but we also have a strong actually industrial set of customers and a few consumer products as well. And so the new wins are mostly in the retail and consumer side with companies that are performing very well through this turbulence in global trade and see a need to lock in high service capacity.

是的。我們的大部分專用業務以零售為中心——但我們實際上也擁有強大的工業客戶群和一些消費產品。因此，新的勝利主要體現在零售和消費者方面，這些公司在全球貿易動盪中表現非常出色，並且認為有必要鎖定高服務能力。

So it's -- and the wins are in areas where we have density. So our ability to surge with them should be pretty strong. So we feel good wins and good network lanes with good customers.

所以——我們的勝利發生在人口密集的地區。因此我們與他們一起奮戰的能力應該相當強。因此，我們感到很高興，我們擁有良好的網路通道和優質的客戶。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Phil Yeager for closing remarks.

現在我想請菲爾·耶格爾致閉幕詞。

Great. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining our first quarter earnings call this afternoon. And as always, Kevin and I are available for any questions you might have. Thank you and have a good evening.

偉大的。好吧，感謝大家參加今天下午的第一季財報電話會議。像往常一樣，凱文和我隨時可以解答您的任何問題。謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call with

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束