Hub Group Inc (HUBG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Hub Group's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Phil Yeager, Hub's President and CEO; Brian Alexander, Hub's Chief Operating Officer; and Geoff DeMartino, Hub's CFO, are joining me on the call.

您好，歡迎來到 Hub Group 的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 Hub 總裁兼首席執行官 Phil Yeager； Hub 首席運營官 Brian Alexander； Hub 的首席財務官 Geoff DeMartino 和我一起參加了電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Any forward-looking statements made during the course of the call or contained in the release represent the company's best good faith and judgment as to what may happen in the future. Statements that are forward-looking can be identified by the use of words such as believe, expect, anticipate and project, and variations of these words.

（操作員說明）在通話過程中做出的或發布中包含的任何前瞻性陳述代表了公司對未來可能發生的事情的最大誠意和判斷。前瞻性陳述可以通過使用諸如相信、期望、預期和預測等詞語以及這些詞語的變體來識別。

Please review the cautionary statements in the release. In addition, you should refer to the disclosures in the company's Form 10-K and other SEC filings regarding factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements.

請查看新聞稿中的警告聲明。此外，您應該參考公司 10-K 表格和其他 SEC 文件中披露的有關可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異的因素。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Phil Yeager. You may now begin.

提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給主持人 Phil Yeager。你現在可以開始了。

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining Hub Group's first quarter earnings call. With me today are Brian Alexander, Hub Group's Chief Operating Officer; and Geoff DeMartino, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好。感謝您參加 Hub Group 第一季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是 Hub Group 的首席運營官 Brian Alexander；和我們的首席財務官 Geoff DeMartino。

I wanted to start by thanking all of our team members across Hub Group for their tireless effort to support our customers and one another in this rapidly evolving environment. The market has shifted from this time last year. Capacity is loose, customers are more fluid, rail service is improving, inventories are elevated, import volumes are down and the employment market has become more balanced.

首先，我想感謝 Hub Group 的所有團隊成員，感謝他們在這個快速發展的環境中為支持我們的客戶和彼此所做的不懈努力。市場從去年這個時候開始發生了變化。運力鬆動，客戶流動性增加，鐵路服務改善，庫存增加，進口量下降，就業市場變得更加平衡。

The improvements that we have made to our company over the past several years through our diversification, technology enhancements, yield and cost disciplines, and Intermodal operating improvements, are supporting our ability to successfully compete in this environment and support our customers with world-class service.

在過去的幾年裡，我們通過多元化、技術改進、收益和成本紀律以及多式聯運運營改進對我們公司進行了改進，支持我們在這種環境中成功競爭的能力，並為我們的客戶提供世界一流的服務.

In Intermodal, rail service has improved as have customer turn times. However, given slower import demand and elevated inventories, as well as a more aggressive pricing environment, volumes have underperformed our expectations. Our in-sourcing of drayage, reduction in third-party spend, improved rail partnerships as well as our enhanced operational discipline and service levels have enabled us to perform well in bid season.

在多式聯運中，鐵路服務和客戶周轉時間都得到了改善。然而，鑑於進口需求放緩和庫存增加，以及更加激進的定價環境，銷量低於我們的預期。我們的拖運內包、第三方支出的減少、鐵路合作夥伴關係的改善以及運營紀律和服務水平的提高使我們在投標季節表現良好。

As bid awards are realized, we anticipate improved volumes, velocity and network balance, which will help offset lower pricing and accessorial fees. We will maintain our focus on providing outstanding service and improving our cost structure to drive long-term growth.

隨著中標的實現，我們預計交易量、速度和網絡平衡將有所改善，這將有助於抵消較低的定價和附加費用。我們將繼續專注於提供卓越的服務和改善我們的成本結構，以推動長期增長。

I'm very pleased with the performance of our other service lines, which are generating strong results in a challenging environment. In brokerage, we are maintaining order count and taking share while enhancing margin percentage through our great sales team, improved systems, enhanced purchasing power and successful cross-selling.

我對我們其他服務線的表現感到非常滿意，這些服務線在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了強勁的成果。在經紀業務方面，我們通過我們優秀的銷售團隊、改進的系統、增強的購買力和成功的交叉銷售來保持訂單數量和份額，同時提高利潤率。

We are growing our dedicated business with improved returns through organic and new customer wins. The acquisition of TAGG has been very successful, and we are expanding our warehousing footprint to support demand from our cross-selling and in-sourcing synergy opportunities.

我們正在通過有機和新客戶的贏取提高回報來發展我們的專業業務。對 TAGG 的收購非常成功，我們正在擴大我們的倉儲足跡，以支持來自我們交叉銷售和內包協同機會的需求。

Lastly, we're driving organic and new customer-led growth in our Managed Transportation and Final Mile businesses due to our industry-leading service levels, scale and continuous improvements. We have an extremely strong pipeline of new onboardings across all of our offerings, and we are bringing value by integrating these otherwise separate solutions to our customers, which provides increased savings and enhanced service.

最後，由於我們行業領先的服務水平、規模和持續改進，我們正在推動我們的託管運輸和最後一英里業務的有機增長和新客戶主導的增長。我們在所有產品中都有非常強大的新入職渠道，我們通過將這些原本獨立的解決方案集成給我們的客戶來創造價值，從而增加成本並增強服務。

We have an extremely strong balance sheet and are generating significant free cash flow, which will allow us to stay focused on executing our strategy of providing best-in-class service, investing in our asset-based solutions, diversifying our service offerings and enhancing our technology platform.

我們擁有極其強勁的資產負債表，並正在產生可觀的自由現金流，這將使我們能夠繼續專注於執行我們的戰略，提供一流的服務，投資於我們基於資產的解決方案，使我們的服務產品多樣化，並增強我們的技術平台。

We will execute on this strategy while maintaining a strong focus on cost controls and efficiency enhancements, while returning capital to shareholders. We believe this focus will help us navigate the currently challenging environment successfully and lead to long-term growth. With that, I will hand it over to Brian to discuss our business unit performance.

我們將執行這一戰略，同時繼續高度關注成本控制和效率提升，同時將資本返還給股東。我們相信，這一重點將幫助我們成功應對當前充滿挑戰的環境，並實現長期增長。有了這個，我將把它交給布賴恩來討論我們的業務部門的績效。

Thank you, Phil. And I also wanted to thank our experienced team for their efforts in leading and executing through a changing freight environment and delivering continued value to our customers.

謝謝你，菲爾。我還要感謝我們經驗豐富的團隊，感謝他們在不斷變化的貨運環境中領導和執行工作，並為我們的客戶提供持續價值。

I will now discuss our reportable segments, starting with our Intermodal and Transportation Solutions. In the first quarter, ITS revenue declined 9%, driven by softer Intermodal volume that declined 12%. Transcon Intermodal declined 6%. The local West declined 12% and the Local East declined 17%.

我現在將討論我們的報告部分，從我們的多式聯運和運輸解決方案開始。第一季度，ITS 收入下降了 9%，原因是多式聯運運輸量下降了 12%。 Transcon Intermodal 下跌 6%。當地西部下降了 12%，當地東部下降了 17%。

Intermodal revenue per unit increased 3% in the quarter, and we continue to grow our dedicated trucking operation with a revenue increase of 5% in the first quarter and a strong pipeline for the rest of the year.

本季度每單位多式聯運收入增長 3%，我們繼續發展我們的專用卡車運輸業務，第一季度收入增長 5%，並在今年餘下時間擁有強大的管道。

Softer import volume and elevated customer inventories generated softer volume and lower accessorial revenue, which led to a decline in ITS operating income as a percent of revenue by 400 basis points year-over-year.

進口量下降和客戶庫存增加導致銷量下降和輔助收入下降，導致 ITS 營業收入佔收入的百分比同比下降 400 個基點。

We continue to offset price pressure with several cost improvements that include, but certainly are not limited to, lower outside dray cost, improved rail agreements, and an increase in in-sourced drayage from 58% in the first quarter last year to 74% this year.

我們繼續通過幾項成本改進來抵消價格壓力，其中包括但肯定不限於降低外部運貨成本、改進鐵路協議以及將內購運費從去年第一季度的 58% 增加到今年的 74%年。

These cost improvements have more runway through the second half of 2023. In addition, rail transits continued to improve in the first quarter and are much more consistent, leading to improved service and street economics.

這些成本改善在 2023 年下半年有更多的跑道。此外，軌道交通在第一季度繼續改善並且更加一致，從而改善了服務和街道經濟。

We are pleased with the wins we have so far through bid season, and we expect them to start to materialize in the second half of the year. We will continue to invest in our Intermodal business, even in a down cycle, to deliver a superior service product that helps bring cost savings and sustainability to our customers, which, in turn, we believe will continue to drive long-term sustainable growth.

我們對競標季迄今取得的勝利感到滿意，我們預計這些勝利將在今年下半年開始實現。我們將繼續投資我們的多式聯運業務，即使是在下行週期，以提供優質的服務產品，幫助我們的客戶節省成本和實現可持續發展，我們相信這反過來將繼續推動長期可持續增長。

Now turning to our Logistics segment. As we continue to deepen our value to our customers with our integrated approach to supporting an end-to-end supply chain, we were successful in expanding our logistics operating income as a percent of revenue by 70 basis points in the first quarter.

現在轉向我們的物流部門。隨著我們通過支持端到端供應鏈的綜合方法繼續深化我們對客戶的價值，我們在第一季度成功地將物流營業收入佔收入的百分比提高了 70 個基點。

And despite the challenging freight environment, our brokerage held volume close to flat and grew market share with several new customers. Our overall Logistics segment experienced a revenue decline of 13% in the first quarter, but as illustrated in our yield improvements, we have been successful in executing on lowering the cost of purchase transportation and integrating our service offerings.

儘管貨運環境充滿挑戰，但我們的經紀業務的成交量接近持平，並與一些新客戶一起增加了市場份額。第一季度，我們整體物流部門的收入下降了 13%，但正如我們的收益提高所示，我們成功地降低了採購運輸成本並整合了我們的服務產品。

We have successfully integrated our past 2 non-asset acquisitions and continue to harvest cross-selling synergies. We continue to be very pleased with our brokerage team as our Choptank integration has provided non-asset mode diversification, buying leverage and continued cross-selling upside, which will further position us for growth.

我們已經成功整合了過去的 2 次非資產收購，並繼續收穫交叉銷售協同效應。我們繼續對我們的經紀團隊感到非常滿意，因為我們的 Choptank 整合提供了非資產模式多元化、購買槓桿和持續的交叉銷售優勢，這將進一步為我們的增長奠定基礎。

To support our growth, we onboarded 2 new multipurpose logistics locations in the West in the first quarter. And we expect to onboard at least 2 more in 2023 to take our warehouse logistics square footage to over 10 million by the end of this year.

為了支持我們的增長，我們在第一季度在西部開設了 2 個新的多功能物流點。我們預計在 2023 年至少再增加 2 個，到今年年底使我們的倉庫物流面積超過 1000 萬。

These locations are strategic to our Hub network of freight as they support inbound and outbound multimodal Hub volume and service our customers' supply chain needs. We have a great logistics pipeline of new onboardings with launch dates in Q2 and Q3.

這些地點對我們的貨運樞紐網絡具有戰略意義，因為它們支持進出多式聯運樞紐的數量並滿足客戶的供應鏈需求。我們有一個很棒的新入職物流渠道，發布日期為第二季度和第三季度。

Our logistics deal size continues to grow, and our close ratio remains strong. With these enhancements, we are in a great position to continue our trajectory of profitable growth. With that, I'll hand it over to Geoff to discuss our financial performance.

我們的物流交易規模持續增長，成交率保持強勁。通過這些改進，我們處於有利地位，可以繼續我們的盈利增長軌跡。有了這個，我會把它交給傑夫來討論我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Brian. Despite softer freight market conditions, we generated revenue of $1.2 billion for the quarter, which is the second highest first quarter revenue in the history of our company.

謝謝你，布萊恩。儘管貨運市場狀況疲軟，但我們本季度的收入為 12 億美元，這是我們公司歷史上第二高的第一季度收入。

Our continued focus on cost containment and operating efficiency led to operating income margin of 6.8% of revenue. As detailed in our press release, we are updating our income statement presentation as well as disclosing revenue and profitability for our ITS and Logistics segments.

我們對成本控制和運營效率的持續關注導致營業利潤率為收入的 6.8%。正如我們的新聞稿中詳述的那樣，我們正在更新我們的損益表列報以及披露我們的 ITS 和物流部門的收入和盈利能力。

Purchase transportation and warehousing represents costs paid to third parties for carrier and storage capacity. These costs declined as a percentage of revenue as compared to the prior year, reflecting our focus on cost containment. Salaries and benefits reflect the cost of our office and non-office employee base.

購買運輸和倉儲代表支付給第三方的運輸和存儲能力的成本。與上一年相比，這些成本佔收入的百分比有所下降，反映出我們對成本控制的關注。工資和福利反映了我們辦公室和非辦公室員工群的成本。

These costs rose from the prior year as we significantly expanded our company driver count and added in warehousing operations through the acquisition of TAGG Logistics. This increase was offset by lower office employee costs and lower incentive compensation expense.

這些成本比上一年有所增加，因為我們通過收購 TAGG Logistics 顯著擴大了公司司機數量並增加了倉儲業務。這一增長被較低的辦公室員工成本和較低的激勵補償費用所抵消。

Our depreciation and claims costs both increased from the prior year due to investments in fixed assets and the expansion of our company drayage operation. G&A costs increased as we upgraded our drayage terminal and warehousing network and invested in IT software.

由於固定資產投資和公司拖運業務的擴張，我們的折舊和索賠成本均比上一年有所增加。 G&A 成本隨著我們升級運輸終端和倉儲網絡並投資 IT 軟件而增加。

Our diluted earnings per share for the quarter was $1.88. Our performance softened as the quarter progressed, particularly within Intermodal, as lower volumes, a rapid decline in accessorial revenue, and lower pricing impacted profitability.

我們本季度的稀釋後每股收益為 1.88 美元。隨著本季度的進展，我們的業績有所放緩，尤其是在多式聯運業務中，因為銷量下降、輔助收入迅速下降以及定價下降影響了盈利能力。

We generated $124 million of EBITDA in the quarter and ended with $343 million of cash on hand. We are updating our guidance for 2023. Demand conditions began to decline in the second half of 2022 due to macroeconomic factors and rising retailer inventory levels.

我們在本季度產生了 1.24 億美元的 EBITDA，並以 3.43 億美元的手頭現金結束。我們正在更新 2023 年的指引。由於宏觀經濟因素和零售商庫存水平上升，2022 年下半年需求狀況開始下降。

We expect these conditions to persist for at least the first half of 2023, but are anticipating a slight improvement in demand later in the year. For 2023, we expect to generate diluted EPS of between $6 and $7 per share. We expect revenue will range from $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion.

我們預計這些情況至少會持續到 2023 年上半年，但預計今年晚些時候需求會略有改善。到 2023 年，我們預計每股收益將在 6 美元至 7 美元之間。我們預計收入將在 46 億美元至 48 億美元之間。

For Intermodal, we're forecasting mid-single-digit volume declines for the year. We expect to face softer pricing, less accessorial revenue and the lack of surcharges this year, which will be partially offset by lower purchase transportation costs and improved operating efficiency.

對於多式聯運，我們預測今年的銷量將出現中等個位數的下降。我們預計今年將面臨定價疲軟、輔助收入減少和附加費減少的問題，這將部分被採購運輸成本降低和運營效率提高所抵消。

We expect Q2 EPS will be the lowest of the year and will decline from Q1 levels at a similar sequential rate as we experienced in Q1. We have also revised our capital expenditure expectations for 2023 from $140 million to $150 million, down from our initial estimate of $170 million to $190 million as we reduced our planned container adds for the year.

我們預計第二季度每股收益將是今年最低的，並將以與第一季度類似的連續下降速度從第一季度水平下降。我們還將 2023 年的資本支出預期從 1.4 億美元修改為 1.5 億美元，低於我們最初估計的 1.7 億美元至 1.9 億美元，因為我們減少了今年計劃增加的集裝箱。

Based on this guidance, we would expect to generate EBITDA, less capital expenditures, of over $300 million in 2023. This free cash flow profile, combined with our 0 net debt balance, positions us with the financial flexibility to invest in our business through capital expenditures and acquisitions as well as returning capital to our shareholders.

根據這一指引，我們預計到 2023 年將產生超過 3 億美元的 EBITDA（減去資本支出）。這種自由現金流狀況，加上我們的零淨債務餘額，使我們具有財務靈活性，可以通過資本投資於我們的業務支出和收購以及向股東返還資本。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the line for any questions.

有了這個，我會把它交給接線員打開任何問題的線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jon Chappell of Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Jon Chappell。

Guys, can I just start with the trends from basically January through where we are today, especially on the Intermodal volumes, overall, kind of the cadence through March and as you have it right now?

伙計們，我可以從基本上從 1 月到今天的趨勢開始，特別是在多式聯運量上，總體而言，從 3 月開始的節奏，就像你現在擁有的那樣？

Sure. Intermodal volume on a year-over-year basis, January, down 8%; February, down 10%; March, down 18%; and April, also down 18% to date. And I think -- Jon, I think we've haven't seen necessarily the typical seasonality you would see with March being a stronger month in Q1, which is the big part of the revision to the guidance we've seen where April is coming in with pricing resetting at a lower level as well as accessorial fees rolling off.

當然。 1 月份多式聯運量同比下降 8%； 2月，下降10%； 3月，下降18%；和 4 月，迄今為止也下降了 18%。而且我認為 - 喬恩，我認為我們還沒有看到你會看到的典型季節性，因為 3 月份是第一季度的強勁月份，這是我們看到的 4 月份指導修訂的重要部分隨著價格重置在較低水平以及附加費用下降。

We feel good about the logistics part of our business performing well. It's -- Intermodal is just coming off such a high level from last year and such a big part of the business.

我們對我們業務的物流部分錶現良好感到滿意。這是——多式聯運剛剛從去年的高水平和如此大的業務中脫穎而出。

Yes. Okay. It aligns with what we've been hearing out otherwise. Kind of bigger picture question, Phil, and maybe for Geoff as well. Last quarter, you talked about the acquisition pipeline, hoping to do more than 1 per year as you've kind of done in the past.

是的。好的。這與我們聽到的其他情況一致。有點大局的問題，Phil，也許對 Geoff 也是如此。上個季度，你談到了收購渠道，希望像過去那樣每年做 1 次以上。

Does this environment kind of give you some pause? The bank environment give you some pause? Or does it create more opportunities? And how do you think about kind of the timing and the size of acquisitions this year amidst this much weaker backdrop versus you have this massive cash flow generation, the stock is really cheap by anyone's metrics and the buyback program you have outstanding right now?

這種環境會讓你有些猶豫嗎？銀行環境讓你有些猶豫？還是創造了更多的機會？在這種較弱的背景下，你如何看待今年收購的時機和規模，而不是你擁有如此巨大的現金流量，從任何人的指標來看，這隻股票真的很便宜，而且你現在有出色的回購計劃？

Well, I think our free cash flow profile and our current balance sheet situation really affords us the opportunity to pursue both. We do have a good pipeline of opportunities. We actually think the current state of the financing market plays well to our strength. Given our ability to fund an acquisition off of our balance sheet, we don't rely on capital markets.

好吧，我認為我們的自由現金流狀況和我們目前的資產負債表狀況確實為我們提供了追求兩者的機會。我們確實有很多機會。實際上，我們認為融資市場的現狀對我們的實力發揮了很好的作用。鑑於我們有能力在資產負債表之外為收購提供資金，因此我們不依賴資本市場。

Obviously, we're pursuing companies that are performing well. And as you would expect, that's the companies that are willing to talk right now or those that are performing. And so -- and we've mentioned this in the past, I think we talked about this on our last call, if we don't feel like we're in a position to execute on the acquisition, we will more aggressively pursue the return of capital, but we are not at that point right now, but we do have the ability to pursue both.

顯然，我們正在尋找表現良好的公司。正如您所預料的那樣，這就是那些願意立即討論或正在執行的公司。所以——我們過去曾提到過這一點，我想我們在上次電話會議上談到了這一點，如果我們覺得我們無法執行收購，我們將更積極地尋求資本回報，但我們現在還沒有到那個地步，但我們確實有能力同時追求這兩者。

I would just add, Jon, I think we've built through the acquisitions we've done in the past, a more resilient model and change that free cash profile. So as we've said before, we're going to continue to focus on non-asset businesses that help us build scale or bring differentiation in our service offering as well as new technology.

我只想補充一點，喬恩，我認為我們已經通過過去進行的收購建立了一個更具彈性的模式，並改變了自由現金狀況。因此，正如我們之前所說，我們將繼續專注於幫助我們擴大規模或為我們的服務產品和新技術帶來差異化的非資產業務。

So we do -- as Geoff mentioned, we do have a strong pipeline and are hopeful that we'll be able to close on a transaction this year. But if not, and if things don't come along as we were hoping, we'll certainly be ready to enact the buyback.

所以我們這樣做 - 正如傑夫提到的那樣，我們確實擁有強大的渠道，並希望我們能夠在今年完成交易。但如果沒有，如果事情沒有像我們希望的那樣發生，我們當然會準備好實施回購。

Our next question comes from the line of Elliot Alper of Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Elliot Alper。

Great. You talked about a $7 floor on your previous guidance last quarter, kind of how it would take a material change in consumer spending and volumes to change that. I guess, is that what happened this quarter? Or are you seeing other factors at play?

偉大的。您在上個季度談到了之前指導下的 7 美元底價，以及如何通過消費者支出和數量的重大變化來改變這一點。我想，這是本季度發生的事情嗎？還是您看到其他因素在起作用？

No, it's really driven by demand. We just think we're in that low period still. We know that will correct. It's certainly a question of when and not if. Along with that, I think supply conditions remain pretty loose. We expect those will tighten as well.

不，它真的是由需求驅動的。我們只是認為我們仍處於低谷期。我們知道那會更正。這當然是一個何時而不是是否的問題。除此之外，我認為供應狀況仍然相當寬鬆。我們預計這些也會收緊。

To get to the upper end of our current guide, we would expect both those conditions would need to be satisfied. If conditions were to stay the same for the full year, that's what gets us to the lower end of our guidance.

要達到我們當前指南的上限，我們預計需要同時滿足這兩個條件。如果全年情況保持不變，這就是讓我們達到指導下限的原因。

And I think when we initially issued guidance, we were coming into the year with sequential improvement from December to January. We were anticipating that trend would continue, and we would see that March would be much stronger as a quarter.

而且我認為，當我們最初發布指南時，我們進入了從 12 月到 1 月連續改進的一年。我們預計這種趨勢會持續下去，我們會看到 3 月份作為一個季度會更加強勁。

I think as we went through the quarter, we saw we're repricing in a more aggressive environment. We're seeing accessorial fees roll off, and we're not getting the bid compliance that we were hoping for on the awarded business.

我認為在整個季度中，我們看到我們正在更激進的環境中重新定價。我們看到輔助費用下降，但我們沒有獲得我們希望在中標業務上獲得的投標合規性。

And so with that trend continuing in April, we wanted to make sure we adjusted the guidance. So I think -- as we look ahead, we do feel as though our bid compliance will improve. Our new bid awards are certainly having a higher compliance level than our older ones.

因此，隨著 4 月份這種趨勢的持續，我們希望確保我們調整了指導方針。所以我認為——當我們展望未來時，我們確實覺得我們的投標合規性會有所改善。我們的新標書肯定比舊標書具有更高的合規水平。

And as we reset all those, we'll be in a good position. I think we have performed very well in bid season. We have focused on really maximizing that margin per load day, increasing the velocity in the network. And so if we see a trend of inventory starting to come down, import volumes increasing in that floor and the spot market really come together.

當我們重置所有這些時，我們將處於有利位置。我認為我們在競標季表現非常好。我們專注於真正最大化每個負載日的利潤，提高網絡速度。因此，如果我們看到庫存開始下降的趨勢，那麼該樓層的進口量增加和現貨市場就會真正結合在一起。

And that will lead to those bid awards materializing. And so that's why we do believe we're going to see some sequential improvement from Q2 to Q3 and Q3 to Q4.

這將導致這些投標獎勵成為現實。因此，這就是為什麼我們相信我們會看到從第二季度到第三季度以及從第三季度到第四季度的一些連續改進。

Yes. No, that's really helpful. So I guess, maybe on the commentary on kind of a mid-single-digit volume decline for Intermodal volumes for the year off of a down 18% in April, I guess. How should we think about that progressing through the year? And kind of what gives you confidence on that kind of back half turnaround?

是的。不，這真的很有幫助。所以我想，也許是關於聯運貨運量從 4 月份下降 18% 到今年的中等個位數下降的評論，我猜。我們應該如何看待這一年的進展？是什麼讓你對這種後半場轉變充滿信心？

Yes. So I think part of it is comparable from last year, but I think the other piece is that compliance level that we're seeing on new awards, we're also seeing really strong performance in our other service lines, which helped to feed our Intermodal business. We have some nice wins that are going to be coming on. So part of it is comps, but part of it is also we have a good pipeline of onboardings. We just need to see those really materialize.

是的。所以我認為其中一部分與去年相當，但我認為另一部分是我們在新獎項上看到的合規水平，我們在其他服務領域也看到了非常強勁的表現，這有助於滿足我們的需求聯運業務。我們即將取得一些不錯的勝利。所以它的一部分是補償，但它的一部分也是我們有一個很好的入職管道。我們只需要看到那些真正實現。

Yes, Elliot, this is Brian. I'll add to that as well. I think we're finding new ways to win with our customers, where we certainly participate in bids and win transactionally. We're able to couple together some of our other logistics, non-asset offerings that help us -- when that volume become more sticky with it and be less price sensitive.

是的，埃利奧特，這是布賴恩。我也會補充一點。我認為我們正在尋找新的方式來贏得我們的客戶，我們當然會參與投標並在交易中獲勝。我們能夠將我們的一些其他物流、非資產產品結合在一起，這對我們有幫助——當數量變得更加粘性並且對價格不那麼敏感時。

So customers are looking for transload or consolidation solutions. We're able to supply those for them as well as giving them access to our logistics square footage throughout our network. So we see that also helping the drive in the back half.

因此，客戶正在尋找轉運或整合解決方案。我們能夠為他們提供這些產品，並讓他們可以使用我們整個網絡中的物流場地。所以我們看到這也有助於後半部分的驅動器。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just wanted to talk more about competition, get to you to elaborate on that a little bit. Where are you seeing the most pressure? Obviously, volumes are down quite a bit in -- across the board but also in the local East. Is this more IMC competition? Is it more truck?

只是想多談談競爭，讓你詳細說明一下。你在哪裡看到壓力最大？顯然，銷量下降了很多——全面下降，但在當地東部也是如此。這是更多的IMC競爭嗎？是更多的卡車嗎？

Can you elaborate a little bit more on that and what do you expect to see throughout the rest of the year? And if you can throw on the spreads, where they are right now in the different regions versus truck, that would be helpful.

你能詳細說明一下嗎？你希望在今年餘下的時間裡看到什麼？而且，如果您可以了解價差，即它們現在在不同地區與卡車的價差，那將很有幫助。

Sure. So it's certainly been a more competitive bid season. I think in shorter haul segments, we're seeing that be with both truck and Intermodal and then in longer haul segment more with Intermodal.

當然。因此，這無疑是一個更具競爭力的競標季節。我認為在短途運輸領域，我們看到卡車和多式聯運都是如此，然後在長途運輸領域更多的是多式聯運。

As you know, our growth has mostly been in the Transcon portion of our network, which has a little bit more resiliency in this sort of environment, but it's also very dependent on import volumes, which have been slower. We are seeing wins continue to come online.

如您所知，我們的增長主要是在我們網絡的 Transcon 部分，它在這種環境中具有更強的彈性，但它也非常依賴進口量，而進口量一直較慢。我們看到勝利繼續上線。

We're seeing more customers respond positively to our increased service levels, the economics we can bring and the capacity assurances, I think, as we see things tighten up over time. So it's certainly been more competitive. It's not anything that's surprising to me or any increased competition versus where you would anticipate it would be for us.

我們看到越來越多的客戶對我們提高的服務水平、我們可以帶來的經濟效益和容量保證做出積極反應，我認為，隨著時間的推移，情況會越來越緊。所以它肯定更具競爭力。這對我來說並不令人驚訝，也沒有任何比您預期的競爭更激烈的競爭。

We're staying focused on that margin per load day model that helps us generate the maximum returns, creating more balance, creating more fluidity and velocity. I think from a spreads perspective, on contract business, it's really anywhere from mid-teens to high teens on the longer-haul business to a little bit under that, maybe just low double digits in local markets.

我們一直專注於每負載日利潤率模型，該模型可幫助我們產生最大回報，創造更多平衡，創造更多流動性和速度。我認為從價差的角度來看，在合同業務上，長途業務的價差實際上是從十幾歲到十幾歲，再到一點點，在本地市場可能只是低兩位數。

So the spread is certainly tighter than what we would anticipate. But I think if you see the spot market really start to come in, some volumes really come online, that will get wider again.

因此，價差肯定比我們預期的要小。但我認為，如果你看到現貨市場真的開始進入，一些數量真的上線，那將會再次擴大。

Yes. And Brian, this is Brian as well here. I'll just add to that, too. In an effort to drive that competitive price out there, we've been very successful in taking cost out of our network.

是的。 Brian，我也是 Brian。我也會補充一點。為了推動具有競爭力的價格，我們在降低網絡成本方面非常成功。

I mentioned our improvement in in-sourced dray as well as our improved buying power and outsourced dray as well as our rail service agreements. But also, we're coming to the end of a rollout of technology in all of our terminals. We've centralized our load planning and that's helping us become more efficient on the street. So that altogether helps us compete.

我提到了我們在採購板車方面的改進以及我們改進的購買力和外包板車以及我們的鐵路服務協議。而且，我們即將結束在所有終端中推出技術。我們集中了我們的負載規劃，這有助於我們在街道上變得更有效率。所以這完全有助於我們競爭。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on the guidance. It sounds like accessorials rolled off quicker than you expected. Is that one of the bigger needle movers, I guess, in terms of how the guidance has changed? Is that now all out of the updated numbers? And anything else you're assuming in the guide in terms of either gain on sales or buybacks?

好的。然後只是對指南的跟進。聽起來配件的推出速度比您預期的要快。我想，就指導的變化而言，這是更大的推動者之一嗎？現在所有更新的數字都沒有了嗎？在銷售收益或回購方面，您在指南中還假設了什麼？

Sure. The guide does not assume a buyback. It does assume, to your point, accessorial revenue did decline pretty rapidly in the quarter. We had been modeling that for the year, just happened faster than we thought. And so there's a minimal level of that going forward, and then gain on sale of about $4 million in the quarter, minimal going forward as well.

當然。該指南不假設回購。就您的觀點而言，它確實假設輔助收入在本季度確實迅速下降。這一年我們一直在模擬，只是發生得比我們想像的要快。因此，未來的發展水平很小，然後本季度的銷售額約為 400 萬美元，未來也很少。

And we didn't build in a very significant peak season or surcharge-related revenues associated with that as well.

而且我們也沒有建立一個非常重要的旺季或與此相關的附加費相關收入。

Sorry, just to clarify, Geoff, is -- the accessorials just came out faster than you thought and there really was no net change? Or were there more of that coming out just altogether on a net basis?

抱歉，Geoff，我想澄清一下——附件的發布速度比你想像的要快，而且真的沒有淨變化嗎？或者是否有更多的完全以淨額形式出現？

We got to the point we thought we'd be at by the end of the year in the first quarter.

我們達到了我們認為我們會在第一季度年底達到的地步。

Our next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors of Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

Looking past 2017, you've fortunately done a lot more raising of guidance than lowering it. And I was hoping that you could walk through the lower end of the range today with -- and walk us through some of the levers beyond that $4.6 billion in revenue.

回顧過去的 2017 年，幸運的是，您提高指導的次數多於降低指導的次數。我希望你今天能走過這個範圍的低端 - 並帶領我們走過超過 46 億美元收入的一些槓桿。

How do you get conviction that the first cut is the last cut and, granularly, what are the assumptions that get you to $6, and how are you comfortable there?

你如何確信第一次削減是最後一次削減，具體來說，讓你達到 6 美元的假設是什麼，你在那裡感覺如何？

Sure. We tend to be pretty conservative on our guidance. So it was a big deal for us to come in with a reduction, but we did want to be provider of balanced view of what we're seeing.

當然。我們傾向於對我們的指導非常保守。因此，減少對我們來說是一件大事，但我們確實希望成為我們所看到的平衡觀點的提供者。

The conditions, again, softened throughout the first quarter and have not really firmed up since then. If conditions were to stay the same, and volume were to be basically flat sequentially the rest of the year, that's what gets us to that -- to the lower end of our range.

情況在整個第一季度再次走軟，此後並未真正穩固。如果條件保持不變，並且今年餘下時間的銷量基本持平，這就是我們達到目標的原因 - 達到我們範圍的下限。

The higher end of the range would come with a stronger improvement in volume sequentially for the year. So at the midpoint, we're down mid-single digits on volume. To get to the higher end of the range, it would be closer to flat for the full year, which obviously would imply a sequential improvement in the back half.

該範圍的較高端將伴隨著今年環比銷量的更強勁增長。因此，在中點，我們的交易量下降了中個位數。為了達到該範圍的高端，全年將接近持平，這顯然意味著後半年將出現連續改善。

If the conditions exist that drive that type of volume, we would expect to see surcharge revenue coming into play in late Q3 or Q4, that would also get us to the higher end of the range as well.

如果存在推動這種數量的條件，我們預計附加費收入將在第三季度末或第四季度發揮作用，這也將使我們達到該範圍的高端。

I'll just call out, Bascome, as well. This is Brian. The resilience of our brokerage operations amongst the headwinds in the market. So even with those market headwinds, they've been able to hold their volume close to flat and continue to add new customer logos and gain market share.

我也會大聲喊叫，Bascome。這是布萊恩。我們的經紀業務在市場逆風中的彈性。因此，即使存在這些市場逆風，他們也能夠保持銷量接近持平，並繼續增加新的客戶標識並獲得市場份額。

And as the demand increases, that's really going to accelerate their performance while they also are able to keep their costs contained. So that team moves very fast. They move ahead of the market, and they protect the service, the market share in their overall yields, and that helps bring a diversified offering.

隨著需求的增加，這確實會提高他們的績效，同時他們也能夠控製成本。所以這個團隊移動得非常快。他們走在市場的前面，他們保護服務，在他們的整體收益中的市場份額，這有助於帶來多樣化的產品。

And just one more piece. I believe you said you thought you could do about $250 million of free cash flow at the initial guide. You've cut CapEx, maybe there's some working capital release here. Any update on what free cash flow looks like at least within a range at the new income level?

還有一件。我相信你說過你認為你可以在最初的指南中實現大約 2.5 億美元的自由現金流。你削減了資本支出，也許這裡有一些營運資金釋放。關於新收入水平至少在一定範圍內的自由現金流量有何更新？

Sure. I said it in my prepared remarks, but on an EBITDA less CapEx basis with this guide, we'd be north of $300 million.

當然。我在準備好的發言中說過，但根據本指南，在 EBITDA 減去資本支出的基礎上，我們將超過 3 億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So I was wondering if you could help maybe give us some -- a little bit more history of this ITS margin, right? It fell from 11% to 7%. But where was this margin prior to the pandemic? What's been the historical peak to trough range? Any sort of color history there, I think, could be helpful.

所以我想知道您是否可以幫助我們提供一些 - 關於 ITS 利潤率的更多歷史記錄，對嗎？它從 11% 下降到 7%。但在大流行之前，這個利潤率在哪裡？歷史波峰到波谷的範圍是多少？我認為，那裡的任何一種色彩歷史都會有所幫助。

Sure. So in the press release, in the appendix, we did put in 2022 by quarter. So 2022 full year, ITS operating income margin was 10.5%. We didn't go back and recast all of the history, but the company as a whole back in the 2017, 2018 time frame was around that kind of 2.5% to 4% range.

當然。所以在新聞稿中，在附錄中，我們確實按季度將 2022 年放入了。因此，到 2022 年全年，ITS 的營業利潤率為 10.5%。我們沒有回過頭來重述所有歷史，但整個公司在 2017 年、2018 年的時間框架內大約在 2.5% 到 4% 的範圍內。

And back then, Intermodal was a much bigger part of the overall puzzle. So that would have certainly been a part of -- a big driver of that 2.5% to 4% would have been in Intermodal. So kind of call it the 4% to 5% range.

那時，多式聯運是整個難題的重要組成部分。因此，這肯定是其中的一部分——2.5% 到 4% 的主要驅動因素是多式聯運。所以可以稱之為 4% 到 5% 的範圍。

Since then I think we've done a lot to improve the business. We've taken a lot of costs out. We have better yield management disciplines. Certainly, in-sourcing our drayage is a big driver of value as well as offers a service benefit as well.

從那時起，我認為我們為改善業務做了很多工作。我們已經削減了很多成本。我們有更好的收益管理紀律。當然，內包我們的拖運是價值的重要驅動力，同時也提供服務優勢。

But taking that up from historically mid-50s up to we're in the mid-70s today and looking to go higher as another driver as well, along with the technology and operating efficiencies below the transportation line.

但是，從歷史上的 50 年代中期到我們今天的 70 年代中期，我們希望作為另一個驅動力走得更高，以及運輸線以下的技術和運營效率。

Yes, Scott, I'd just highlight, I think we're a far better recruiter of drivers now so we feel that we can sustain the 74% that we're at and get to that 80%.

是的，斯科特，我只是強調，我認為我們現在是一個更好的司機招聘人員，所以我們覺得我們可以維持我們目前的 74%，並達到 80%。

We actually have a backlog of candidates that are coming on, and we've increased our driver count 33% year-over-year. So those are markets where we're oversubscribed. We have a few that we need to make up the gap to get to 80%.

實際上，我們積壓了大量即將到來的候選人，我們的司機人數同比增加了 33%。所以那些是我們超額認購的市場。我們有一些需要彌補差距以達到 80%。

We're aggressively pursuing drivers in those markets. But those economics will certainly help us quite a bit and are proving to be very helpful in this sort of environment. I would also just highlight the improved rail agreements that we have that are certainly supporting our ability to go out and win as well.

我們正在這些市場積極尋找驅動程序。但這些經濟學肯定會對我們有很大幫助，並證明在這種環境下非常有幫助。我還要強調我們所擁有的改進後的鐵路協議，這些協議肯定會支持我們走出去並贏得勝利的能力。

Yes. Just one piece to add to that as well as we've integrated our drivers that we've really found a lot of optimization in how we share drivers amongst our dedicated and our Intermodal drayage within that ITS.

是的。只需添加一點，我們已經集成了我們的驅動程序，我們確實發現了很多優化我們如何在 ITS 內的專用和多式聯運運輸之間共享驅動程序。

And maybe -- do you have -- what's in the guidance for Q2 and full year ITS margin? I just want to -- like, in this last quarter -- the last few quarters we talked about why there would be less sort of cyclicality in the margin going forward, and 400 basis points is a big drop in 1 quarter.

也許——你有——第二季度和全年 ITS 利潤率的指導是什麼？我只想 - 就像在上個季度 - 過去幾個季度我們討論了為什麼未來利潤率的周期性會減少，而 400 個基點是 1 個季度的大幅下降。

So I just want to understand, is the variability of the rail contracts? Is that still in play, but it just happens on a lag. I just -- I want to understand the cyclicality of these margins a little bit better.

所以我只想了解，鐵路合同的可變性嗎？那還在玩嗎，但它只是發生在滯後。我只是 - 我想更好地了解這些利潤率的周期性。

Sure. I think the cyclicality of the margins overall is going to benefit from our Logistics segment, where the margin did improve year-over-year, and we expect that will continue to ramp.

當然。我認為整體利潤率的周期性將受益於我們的物流部門，該部門的利潤率確實同比有所提高，我們預計這將繼續上升。

The reality, though, is ITS and Intermodal, in particular, is sensitive to rate, and it's the biggest single part of our business, that does drive some variability in the business. We expect, in a cyclical market such as Intermodal, there's going to be periods of price strength and periods of price weakness. Last year was obviously a period of price strength. This year, we expect is going to be one of the troughs on the price weakness side.

然而，現實情況是，ITS 和 Intermodal 尤其對費率敏感，而且它是我們業務中最大的單一部分，確實推動了業務的一些可變性。我們預計，在多式聯運這樣的周期性市場中，會有價格走強的時期和價格疲軟的時期。去年顯然是價格走強的時期。今年，我們預計將成為價格疲軟方面的低谷之一。

And so while there will be variability within Intermodal, we do have the levers around rail, flexibility with our rail contracts and the ability to in-source more of the drayage. And then the other key factor is just the growing part of our overall business coming from Logistics.

因此，儘管多式聯運內部會有變化，但我們確實擁有圍繞鐵路的槓桿、鐵路合同的靈活性以及內包更多拖運的能力。然後另一個關鍵因素是我們整體業務中來自物流的增長部分。

But Scott, there is a lag on those rail agreements. And I would also just highlight, I think we're coming off of historic highs in gains on sale on accessorial fees, on surcharges that have normalized more quickly and drastically than I think we would have anticipated.

但是斯科特，這些鐵路協議存在滯後。我還要強調，我認為我們正在擺脫附加費銷售收益的歷史高位，附加費的正常化速度比我們預期的要快和大幅度。

So we set, we feel, a higher floor on earnings that we can now grow off of. And I also believe that it's higher than our 2021 earnings per share, which I think is very strong, and that's the second best year we've ever had in the company.

因此，我們認為，我們設定了一個更高的收入底線，我們現在可以從中增長。而且我也相信它高於我們 2021 年的每股收益，我認為這非常強勁，這是我們公司有史以來第二好的年度。

And I think lastly, we feel we've built a more resilient model with that in-sourcing drayage with continuing to improve those rail contracts and with the diversification that we've done, which is leading to a really high free cash flow generating model in a difficult environment.

我想最後，我們覺得我們已經建立了一個更具彈性的模型，包括內包拖運，繼續改善這些鐵路合同以及我們所做的多元化，這導致了一個非常高的自由現金流生成模型在困難的環境中。

Yes, those are all good points. Do you mind just sharing, though, what's in the guidance for Q2 and full year ITS margin?

是的，這些都是好點。不過，您介意分享第二季度和全年 ITS 利潤率的指導意見嗎？

It will be a step down from where we were in Q1, somewhere in the probably another 100, 150 basis points down for the full year.

這將比我們在第一季度的水平有所下降，全年可能再下降 100、150 個基點。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

Wanted to ask you a little bit about the competitive dynamic out there. I think there's some sense -- there has been a sense maybe that Intermodal prices don't -- won't go down quite as much as truckload contract rates. So maybe broker rates down the most, and then truck asset base not as bad, and Intermodal not as bad.

想問你一些關於那裡的競爭動態的問題。我認為有某種意義——從某種意義上說，多式聯運價格可能不會——不會像卡車合同費率那樣下降很多。因此，也許經紀人利率下降幅度最大，然後卡車資產基礎沒有那麼糟糕，多式聯運也沒有那麼糟糕。

I wanted to get your thoughts and see if that's right. I guess that's excluding the impact of storage fees going away. But on that -- and do you think that there is some kind of, I guess, stability? Or is it the pressure keeps building and might get a bit worse as you go through 2Q? So really just around the competitive dynamic.

我想听聽你的想法，看看是否正確。我想這不包括取消存儲費的影響。但就此而言——我猜你認為存在某種穩定性嗎？還是壓力不斷增加，並且在您經歷第二季度時可能會變得更糟？所以真的只是圍繞競爭動態。

Yes, sure. So I think that your assertion around rates by group of brokers having the lowest full truckload carriers having the next most, and Intermodal outperforming, is accurate.

是的，當然。因此，我認為您關於全卡車承運人最低的經紀人組的費率斷言是準確的。

In Q1, our year-over-year revenue per load was up 3%, which I think is strong. Obviously, we're renewing those rates through this cycle at a lower rate. So I agree with what you said there. Brian, do you want to speak?

在第一季度，我們每負載的收入同比增長 3%，我認為這是強勁的。顯然，我們在這個週期中以較低的利率更新這些利率。所以我同意你在那裡說的。布賴恩，你想說話嗎？

Yes. I think on the brokerage side, too, what we saw in Q1 of last year was we were about 60% spot, 40% contracted. What we did has worked really hard to get those customers moved out of spot into contracts so that we could retain them in a much more stable environment in our contract side.

是的。我認為在經紀商方面，我們在去年第一季度看到的情況是我們大約有 60% 的現貨，40% 的合同。我們所做的工作非常努力地讓這些客戶從現場轉移到合同中，這樣我們就可以在合同方面將他們保留在一個更加穩定的環境中。

And we've seen that help protect our volume as illustrated in our brokerage results. And we think that's going to help us as the market starts to move up as well to drive more volume in that brokerage side.

正如我們的經紀業績所示，我們已經看到這有助於保護我們的交易量。我們認為，隨著市場開始上漲，這將對我們有所幫助，從而推動經紀業務方面的交易量增加。

And just to round it off, Tom, I don't anticipate that we're going to see rates go much lower from what we're renewing right now. That would, to me, be surprising and would really be driven, I think, by a consumer-driven recession.

最後，湯姆，我預計我們不會看到利率比我們現在續訂的利率低得多。對我來說，這將是令人驚訝的，而且我認為，這確實是由消費者驅動的衰退所驅動的。

I think we're through 43% of our bids with renewals that are affected. We're repricing another 40% right now that will be effective in Q2. And there's just not that much left after that, obviously, in the third quarter and fourth quarter to reprice even if there was additional downside.

我認為我們有 43% 的投標都受到了影響。我們現在正在重新定價另外 40%，這將在第二季度生效。顯然，在那之後，即使有額外的下行空間，在第三季度和第四季度重新定價的時間也不多了。

I think -- we have seen a few customers pull bids forward. That hasn't been a dramatic change, but you can tell that there is a thought out there from our customers that the market might shift a little bit here in the back half, and they want to try to get the best rates during this kind of Q2 pricing season. So that would be our read on go forward.

我認為——我們已經看到一些客戶提前出價。這並不是一個巨大的變化，但你可以看出我們的客戶認為市場可能會在後半段發生一些變化，他們希望在這種情況下嘗試獲得最優惠的價格第二季度定價季節。所以這將是我們繼續閱讀的內容。

Just one last piece to that as well as we still are hearing from our customers that they have volume that's moving over the road that they want to convert to Intermodal in that service stability that we've been seeing from the rails has really played out nicely in Q1.

最後一點，我們仍然從我們的客戶那裡聽到他們有大量的貨物在路上移動，他們希望將其轉換為多式聯運，因為我們從鐵路上看到的服務穩定性確實很好地發揮了作用在第一季度。

We've gained confidence in the stability of that and the consistency of it. So we've trimmed our transits to those customers, the better compete not just on price but on overall service with over the road.

我們對它的穩定性和一致性有了信心。因此，我們已經減少了對這些客戶的運輸，不僅在價格上而且在整體服務上更好地競爭。

Okay. And -- then I have one that's a little more granular, I suppose. When you talk about the guidance of the kind of decline in 2Q EPS similar to the decline 1Q versus 4Q, are you talking about a percent change or an absolute earnings per share change? It makes it a little bit of a difference in the way you look at it.

好的。而且 - 然後我有一個更細化的，我想。當你談到第二季度每股收益下降的指導類似於第一季度與第四季度的下降時，你是在談論百分比變化還是每股絕對收益變化？它使您看待它的方式有所不同。

Percent.

百分。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Long of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

I guess, Phil, it was helpful to get some color on the cadence of bid season, but would love to kind of hear how contract pricing is trending so far when you look at that kind of first 80% of bids, and maybe your level of visibility at this point?

我想，Phil，了解投標季節的節奏很有幫助，但是當你查看前 80% 的投標時，我很想知道到目前為止合同定價的趨勢，也許你的水平此時的能見度？

Sure. So certainly lower on a year-over-year basis. I think for us, there's a mix component where we're really trying to target balance. We're focused on retention of incumbent kind of long haul and head haul business while getting that backhaul balance.

當然。所以肯定會比去年同期低。我認為對我們來說，有一個混合組件，我們真正在努力實現平衡。我們專注於保留現有的長途和頭程業務，同時獲得回程平衡。

And I think that, so from a revenue per unit perspective, might be lower than that kind of mid-single, but on a -- by retaining the head haul, we're really doing far better than that. And I think you can see that in the revenue per unit being up 3% on a year-over-year basis, despite renewing the majority of that business or that 42% of the business during the quarter.

而且我認為，從每單位收入的角度來看，可能會低於那種中單，但在 - 通過保持領先優勢，我們確實做得比那好得多。我認為你可以看到，儘管在本季度更新了大部分業務或 42% 的業務，但每單位收入同比增長 3%。

So our view is still we're going to do better than truck that it will be in the kind of single digits on renewals from a decline, and we're really managing, I think, very well through bid season, winning -- really picking our spots and trying to get the philosophy and balance back into the network.

因此，我們的觀點仍然是，我們將比卡車做得更好，因為它會以個位數的速度從下降中續約，而且我認為，我們真的在整個競標季都做得很好，贏得了——真的選擇我們的位置並嘗試將理念和平衡帶回網絡。

Got it. And if rates are down single digits, I know mix is going to play a role as well in accessorials. So is there a way you can help us think about trend of all-in yields going forward and what's baked into the guidance on a year-over-year basis?

知道了。如果利率下降個位數，我知道組合也會在配飾中發揮作用。那麼，有沒有一種方法可以幫助我們思考未來總收益率的趨勢以及同比指導中包含的內容？

Sure. We are assuming it would be down -- could be flat to down, low-single.

當然。我們假設它會下降——可能持平到下降，低單。

Okay. And last thing I wanted to ask -- I wanted to try the question on segment margins maybe a bit differently. Given the resegmentation, how are you thinking about targeted operating margins in both ITS and Logistics? Is there a range you can give us in terms of where you think both of those businesses kind of trend through the cycle?

好的。我想問的最後一件事——我想嘗試一下關於細分市場利潤率的問題，也許有點不同。考慮到重新細分，您如何看待 ITS 和物流的目標營業利潤率？就您認為這兩種業務在整個週期中的趨勢而言，您是否可以給我們一個範圍？

Sure. I mean on the ITS side, I mean, I think last year demonstrates the power of our business in a strong pricing environment. This year is probably going to be the opposite.

當然。我的意思是在 ITS 方面，我的意思是，我認為去年在強大的定價環境中展示了我們業務的力量。今年可能會相反。

And so in Q1, we were at 7.0%. If you think on a full year basis, we're down another 100 basis points. I mean, that's kind of the range of strength and softness, so maybe the midpoint is a good long-term average.

所以在第一季度，我們的增長率為 7.0%。如果你考慮全年，我們又下降了 100 個基點。我的意思是，這就是強度和柔軟度的範圍，所以也許中點是一個很好的長期平均值。

On the Logistics side, we keep doing better and better, raising yields and operating more efficiently. I'm not sure we're ready to come out with a long-term number. But where we are today, we think there's definitely upside. And if that becomes a bigger part of the business, it will mix up the overall margin.

在物流方面，我們不斷做得越來越好，提高了產量並提高了運營效率。我不確定我們是否準備好得出一個長期數字。但我們今天所處的位置，我們認為肯定有上升空間。如果這成為業務的更大一部分，它將混淆整體利潤率。

And part of that will be driven by how much acquisition revenue we drive into the Logistics segment. I think we haven't had that be as high, so you're not being as burdened with some of those costs that come through post acquisition.

其中一部分將取決於我們為物流部門帶來的收購收入。我認為我們沒有那麼高，所以你不會因為收購後產生的一些成本而感到負擔。

But just to kind of tie it together, I think when we came out quite a while back with a 2025 operating margin target of 4% to 5.5%, I would anticipate we'll continue to outperform that in totality and the -- by -- on the high end. And you'll see, as Geoff mentioned, in a strong environment, ITS really be the driver of that outperformance and in an environment like this, which is part of the balance of the portfolio that we have Logistics really be the driver of the outperformance.

但只是為了將它們聯繫在一起，我認為當我們很久以前提出 2025 年營業利潤率目標為 4% 至 5.5% 時，我預計我們總體上將繼續超越這一目標，並且 - - 在高端。你會看到，正如 Geoff 提到的，在一個強大的環境中，ITS 確實是表現出色的驅動力，在這樣的環境中，這是我們擁有的投資組合平衡的一部分，物流確實是表現出色的驅動力.

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Just a couple of follow-ups here. I think there's been a fair bit of discussion on this call about slower EPS and kind of where that lies relative to your prior expectations. But if I can just kind of follow up on that and ask you if your view of normalized mid-cycle EPS and that long-term guidance has changed at all, kind of given where the sort of almost the new floor is and how kind of bad the cycle has been, where the expectation kind of is? Is that just the pendulum swings a lot more? Or do you think that you probably also have to recalibrate what normalized EPS is?

這裡只是一些後續行動。我認為在這次電話會議上有很多關於每股收益放緩的討論，以及它相對於你之前的預期所處的位置。但是，如果我可以跟進一下，問你對正常化的周期中期 EPS 和長期指導的看法是否有任何改變，考慮到幾乎是新底線的位置以及糟糕的周期已經過去了，期望值在哪裡？那隻是鍾擺擺動了很多嗎？或者您認為您可能還必須重新校準歸一化 EPS 是什麼？

Well, I think Phil addressed some of that on the prior question. I think our prior long-term guide was 4.0% to 5.5% on operating income margin, and we expect the normalized kind of through the cycle operating income margin will be well north of that 5.5%.

好吧，我認為 Phil 在前面的問題中解決了其中的一些問題。我認為我們之前的長期指導是 4.0% 到 5.5% 的營業收入利潤率，我們預計正常化的整個週期營業收入利潤率將遠高於 5.5%。

I think -- last year is a pretty good indication of the strength. And then this year, obviously, is going to be the opposite. So longer term, we're going to be in the middle of those 2 guideposts.

我認為 - 去年很好地表明了實力。顯然，今年情況將恰恰相反。所以從長遠來看，我們將處於這兩個路標的中間。

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe kind of as a follow-up to the competition question. I mean, obviously, the truck market right now is very loose, but it feels like the rail intermodal markets also kind of fundamentally changing competitively with the combination of CPG and CS and the new offerings and such, and basically, all the IMCs and players in the space are kind of jockeying to kind of be positioned for that.

知道了。這很有幫助。也許可以作為競爭問題的後續行動。我的意思是，顯然，現在的卡車市場非常寬鬆，但感覺鐵路聯運市場也隨著 CPG 和 CS 的結合以及新產品等的競爭發生了根本性的變化，基本上，所有的 IMC 和玩家在這個空間裡，有點像在爭奪定位。

What does that mean for kind of Hub Group as a whole, kind of where are the opportunities? What are the risks for you guys kind of maybe looking out in that same 3- to 5-year period from these changes that have taken place in the last 12 months?

這對整個 Hub Group 意味著什麼，機會在哪裡？在過去 12 個月發生的這些變化中，你們可能會在同樣的 3 到 5 年期間關注哪些風險？

Yes. So we're really excited about the Falcon Premium service that just got launched by our Western partner, Union Pacific. It's really going to help us, I think, take advantage of the near-shoring opportunity, both in the near term as well as longer term. It's 2 to 3 days better than the next best service. And so we hope it can be a catalyst for growth and certainly it's going to be a focus area.

是的。因此，我們對我們的西方合作夥伴 Union Pacific 剛剛推出的 Falcon Premium 服務感到非常興奮。我認為，這真的會幫助我們在短期和長期內利用近岸外包的機會。比下一個最好的服務好 2 到 3 天。因此，我們希望它能成為增長的催化劑，當然這將成為一個重點領域。

I think for us, we're also anticipating, with West Coast port labor challenges getting behind us, we'll see the import volumes getting back to a more normalized level. That will be a good driver of growth. And then with improved service and sustainable service, which our rail partners and us are making the investments to really maintain that in an up cycle, we really want to see us get back to growth in the shorter haul local East market. And we're certainly working very closely with our partner that needs to make that happen.

我認為對我們來說，我們也預計，隨著西海岸港口勞動力挑戰的過去，我們將看到進口量恢復到更正常的水平。這將是一個很好的增長動力。然後通過改進服務和可持續服務，我們的鐵路合作夥伴和我們正在投資以真正保持在上升週期中，我們真的希望看到我們在短途本地東部市場恢復增長。我們當然正在與需要實現這一目標的合作夥伴密切合作。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

This is David Zazula on for Brandon. If I could just ask on brokerage, I think there was a competitor that had mentioned kind of 4Q or 1Q as kind of the trough levels in net revenue per load. It's not something you disclosed, but I guess are those the trends you're seeing in the market? Are you seeing something else trending in terms of what you'd realize on a unit basis?

這是布蘭登的大衛扎祖拉。如果我只能問經紀業務，我想有一個競爭對手提到了 4Q 或 1Q 作為每負載淨收入的低谷水平。這不是你透露的東西，但我想這些是你在市場上看到的趨勢嗎？您是否看到了您在單位基礎上實現的其他趨勢？

Yes, sure. Yes. Thanks, David. This is Brian. Yes. I think Q1 would probably be in that trough. We've seen April perform just about the same as March, but we have been at -- with that, as I mentioned before. The market share that we've gained really over the last 2 quarters with our combination of -- or acquisition of Choptank and how we face that market. We see our volumes holding quite strong, and we've expanded our gross margin as a percent of revenue.

是的，當然。是的。謝謝，大衛。這是布萊恩。是的。我認為第一季度可能會處於那個低谷。我們已經看到 4 月的表現與 3 月幾乎相同，但正如我之前提到的那樣，我們一直在這樣做。在過去兩個季度中，我們通過合併或收購 Choptank 以及我們如何面對該市場，真正獲得了市場份額。我們看到我們的銷量保持強勁，我們已經擴大了毛利率佔收入的百分比。

And so we feel very well positioned to see a good Q2 and even stronger back half of the year with our brokerage. I'll mention, too, that our brokerage is integrated into our full logistics offering. And so we have -- as we diversify our service offerings with our customers, and we bring more than just capacity to them on the transportation side. We're bringing them warehouse capabilities, cross-stock and consolidation capabilities as well as transloading, that we've seen that business be stickier and less price competitive. And we provide a stronger service offering.

因此，我們非常有能力通過我們的經紀業務看到良好的第二季度甚至更強勁的下半年。我還要提一下，我們的經紀業務已整合到我們的全套物流服務中。因此，我們擁有 - 隨著我們為客戶提供多樣化的服務，我們為他們帶來的不僅僅是運輸方面的能力。我們正在為他們帶來倉庫能力、交叉庫存和整合能力以及轉運，我們已經看到業務更具粘性且價格競爭力較低。我們提供更強大的服務。

Well, the only thing I'd add on that, this is Phil, is that our customer count is at record levels in brokerage, and that's a testament to our sales team and the cross-selling efforts that we have. But we think that positions us very well, as the spot market does begin to tighten up, to be there for those customers and make sure that we're absorbing maybe the -- some of the tender rejections they're going to see from asset-based carriers.

嗯，我唯一要補充的是，這是菲爾，我們的客戶數量在經紀業務中處於創紀錄水平，這證明了我們的銷售團隊和我們所做的交叉銷售工作。但我們認為，隨著現貨市場確實開始收緊，我們的位置非常好，可以為這些客戶服務，並確保我們正在吸收他們可能會從資產中看到的一些投標拒絕基於運營商。

That's very helpful. I guess, a segment I wanted to talk about -- or not segment, not anymore, but area I want to talk about was dedicated -- I guess, you being dedicated as a place that you can lean into maybe that customers are looking for more capacity this year?

這很有幫助。我想，我想談的一個細分市場——或者不是細分市場，不再是細分市場，但我想談的領域是專注的——我想，你專注於一個你可以依靠的地方，也許客戶正在尋找今年產能更大？

Yes. Yes, you're right, David. We have seen customers look for more stable and consistent capacity and taking out a lot of that volatility that they've experienced in the last 2 years in their supply chain.

是的。是的，你是對的，大衛。我們已經看到客戶尋求更穩定和一致的產能，並消除他們在過去兩年中在供應鏈中經歷的大量波動。

So our pipeline is very strong. We have good line of sight to our onboarding in Q2 and in Q3. We've also taken a lot of cost out of that model as well and ran it more efficiently as we've integrated it within our Intermodal drayage operation. So -- yes, we feel very good about our dedicated growth.

所以我們的管道非常強大。我們對第二季度和第三季度的入職有很好的了解。我們還從該模型中節省了大量成本，並在將其集成到我們的多式聯運拖運操作中時更有效地運行它。所以 - 是的，我們對我們的專注增長感到非常滿意。

Great. And then just as a cleanup, Geoff, I don't know if you have handy the non-driver employees, I mean, I don't know if you're not breaking them up by segment, but if you have them by segment, I would definitely take that.

偉大的。然後作為清理工作，傑夫，我不知道你是否有方便的非司機員工，我的意思是，我不知道你是否沒有按部分細分他們，但如果你有他們按部分，我一定會接受的。

So our total office head count was just over 2,100 at the end of the quarter.

因此，在本季度末，我們的辦公室總人數剛剛超過 2,100 人。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Phil Yeager for closing remarks.

我現在想把會議轉回 Phil Yeager 作閉幕詞。

Great. Well, thank you for joining our call this evening. Hub Group is continuing to position for long-term success. I'm confident in our strategy and team and believe we will successfully navigate this more challenging environment.

偉大的。好吧，感謝您今晚加入我們的電話會議。 Hub Group 將繼續為長期成功做好準備。我對我們的戰略和團隊充滿信心，相信我們將成功應對這個更具挑戰性的環境。

And I think that's evidenced by Hub being on track for our second best year in our company's 50-plus year history. As always, Brian, Geoff and I are available for any questions. Thank you, again, and I hope you have a great evening.

我認為 Hub 有望成為我們公司 50 多年曆史上第二好的年度，這證明了這一點。一如既往，Brian、Geoff 和我隨時可以回答任何問題。再次感謝您，希望您度過一個愉快的夜晚。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。