Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jordan, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Hilltop Holdings first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

感謝各位耐心等候。我叫 Jordan，今天將擔任本次會議的接線員。此刻，我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 Hilltop Holdings 2026 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。（接線員指示）

And I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Dunn. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話交給 Matt Dunn。請開始。

Thank you. Before we get started, please note that certain statements during today's presentation that are not statements of historical facts, including statements concerning such items as our outlook, business strategy, future plans, financial condition, credit risks and trends in credit, allowance for credit losses, liquidity and sources of funding, funding costs, dividends, stock repurchases, subsequent events and impacts of interest rate changes as well as such other items referenced in the preface of our presentation are forward-looking statements.

謝謝。在我們開始之前，請注意，今天簡報中某些非歷史事實的陳述，包括關於我們的展望、業務策略、未來計畫、財務狀況、信用風險與信用趨勢、信用損失準備、流動性與資金來源、資金成本、股利、股票回購、後續事項以及利率變動影響等（以及我們簡報前言中提及的其他事項）均屬前瞻性陳述。

These statements are based on management's current expectations concerning future events that, by their nature, are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our actual results, capital, liquidity, and financial condition may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including the precautionary statements referenced in the preface of our presentation and those included in our most recent annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC.

這些陳述係基於管理階層對未來事件的目前預期，而其本質上存在風險與不確定性。由於多項因素，我們的實際結果、資本、流動性及財務狀況可能與這些陳述存在重大差異；其中包括我們簡報前言所引用的警示性聲明，以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交之年度與季度報告中所載的相關聲明。

Please note that certain information presented is preliminary and based upon data available at this time. Except to the extent required by law, we expressly disclaim any obligation to update earlier statements as a result of new information.

另請注意，部分呈現之資訊為初步資料，係基於目前可取得之數據。除法律要求之範圍外，我們明確聲明不負有因新資訊而更新先前陳述之任何義務。

Additionally, this presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures, including tangible common equity and tangible book value per share. A reconciliation of these measures to the nearest GAAP measure may be found in the appendix to this presentation, which is posted on our website at ir.hilltop.com.

此外，本簡報包含若干非 GAAP 指標，包括有形普通股權（tangible common equity）與每股有形帳面價值（tangible book value per share）。上述指標與最接近之 GAAP 指標的調節表可見於本簡報附錄，並已發布於我們的網站 ir.hilltop.com。

I will now turn the call over to Jeremy Ford.

現在我把電話交給 Jeremy Ford。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning. For the first-quarter, Hilltop reported net income of approximately $38 million or $0.64 per diluted share. Return on average assets for the period was 1% and return on average equity was 7.1%. To summarize the quarter, PlainsCapital Bank reported a continued expansion in net interest margin while generating year-over-year growth in both core loans and core deposits.

謝謝你，Matt，各位早安。第一季 Hilltop 報告淨利約 3,800 萬美元，稀釋後每股盈餘為 0.64 美元。本期平均資產報酬率為 1%，平均股東權益報酬率為 7.1%。概括本季表現，PlainsCapital Bank 在淨利差持續擴張的同時，核心放款與核心存款均實現年增長。

PrimeLending narrowed its operating loss when compared to the first-quarter of 2025 as the mortgage business benefited from higher origination volumes. And HilltopSecurities delivered strong earnings as net revenues across its business lines showed good momentum to start the year. At PlainsCapital Bank, a favorable 3.38% net interest margin and the continued execution on a robust loan pipeline helped to produce $47 million of pretax income and a 1.2% return on average assets for the quarter.

PrimeLending 相較於 2025 年第一季縮小了營運虧損，因房貸業務受惠於更高的承作量。而 HilltopSecurities 繳出強勁獲利，各業務線的淨營收在年初展現良好動能。在 PlainsCapital Bank 方面，3.38% 的有利淨利差與持續推進強勁的放款案源管線，帶動本季稅前盈餘達 4,700 萬美元，平均資產報酬率為 1.2%。

Operating results at the bank were supported by active management of the deposit portfolio and a further remixing of earning assets into core loans. This combination led to an increase in net interest income of $8 million versus the first-quarter of 2025. Results in the quarter included a $1.8 million provision expense. This was largely driven by a stressed auto note credit that we have discussed in prior quarters. Will is going to provide further commentary on credit in his prepared remarks.

銀行的營運成果受惠於對存款組合的積極管理，以及進一步將生息資產重新配置至核心放款。此一組合使淨利息收入較 2025 年第一季增加 800 萬美元。本季結果包含 180 萬美元的提存費用，主要由我們在前幾季已討論過的一筆承壓汽車分期票據信用所致。Will 將在其事先準備的發言中就信用狀況提供更多評論。

The bank is poised to deliver continued core loan growth as we seek to organically recruit talented bankers to our platform and expand on our existing customer base by offering value-enhancing products and services. Additionally, we expect to grow core deposits on a year-over-year basis, but we anticipate modest seasonal volatility in core deposit balances. We believe the backdrop of a healthy Texas economy and a constructive shape to the yield curve will continue to provide a favorable operating environment for PlainsCapital Bank.

本行有望持續實現核心放款成長；我們將致力於以自然方式招募優秀銀行人才加入平台，並透過提供可提升價值的產品與服務，擴大既有客戶基礎。此外，我們預期核心存款將呈年增，但也預期核心存款餘額會出現溫和的季節性波動。我們相信，德州經濟的健康基本面以及殖利率曲線的建設性形狀，將持續為 PlainsCapital Bank 提供有利的營運環境。

Moving to PrimeLending, where the company reported a pretax loss of $2 million during the first-quarter. The improvement in financial results was primarily driven by year-over-year increases in loan origination volumes, and gain on sale margins as well as cost structure enhancements that were implemented in 2025.

接著談 PrimeLending，公司第一季稅前虧損 200 萬美元。財務結果的改善主要來自放款承作量年增、出售收益利差（gain on sale margins）提升，以及 2025 年已實施的成本結構優化。

However, overall profitability within the mortgage business remains under pressure from stubborn headwinds such as affordability and the interest rate lock-in effect. The spring and summer months historically drive elevated origination volumes at PrimeLending. However, persistent volatility in long-term interest rates creates greater uncertainty around second and third-quarter production than in a typical year.

然而，房貸業務整體獲利能力仍受到若干頑固逆風壓抑，例如可負擔性問題與利率鎖定效應。春夏月份歷來會帶動 PrimeLending 較高的承作量；但長天期利率的持續波動，使第二、第三季的產量較典型年度更具不確定性。

Given the structural challenges that homebuyers currently face, we anticipate that overall volumes will be materially impacted by prevailing mortgage rates. We remain focused on achieving internal productivity metrics to best position the business for profitability in this prolonged mortgage cycle. During the quarter, HilltopSecurities generated pretax income of $15 million on net revenue of $116 million for a pretax margin of 12.7%.

鑑於購屋者目前面臨的結構性挑戰，我們預期整體量能將受到現行房貸利率的重大影響。我們仍專注於達成內部生產力指標，以使業務在這一延長的房貸循環中更有利於實現獲利。本季 HilltopSecurities 在淨營收 1.16 億美元下，創造稅前盈餘 1,500 萬美元，稅前利潤率為 12.7%。

Speaking to the business lines at HilltopSecurities. Public finance services continued to produce solid top-line results as it delivered $23.6 million of net revenue, which is a modest decline versus last year's robust first-quarter. Structured finance showed strength in a volatile interest rate environment as the business line delivered net revenue of $23.6 million benefiting from a material increase in DDA lock volume on a year-over-year basis.

就 HilltopSecurities 各業務線而言，公共融資服務持續帶來穩健的營收表現，淨營收為 2,360 萬美元，較去年強勁的第一季小幅下滑。結構性融資在利率高度波動的環境中展現韌性，該業務線淨營收同為 2,360 萬美元，受惠於 DDA lock 量年增的顯著提升。

In wealth management, results further improved versus the prior year's first-quarter from higher advisory fees and transaction fees. We continue to see organic growth in the wealth business in the midst of a competitive operating environment. Finally, fixed income services delivered $14 million of net revenue which was a 58% increase compared to the first-quarter of 2025, primarily from strong sales volumes.

在財富管理方面，受顧問費與交易手續費增加帶動，表現較去年第一季進一步改善。在競爭激烈的營運環境中，我們仍持續看到財富管理業務的有機成長。最後，固定收益服務淨營收為 1,400 萬美元，較 2025 年第一季增加 58%，主要來自強勁的銷售量。

Despite the highly volatile interest rate environment, HilltopSecurities produced a solid first-quarter and improved pretax income by 60% on a year-over-year basis. The firm continues to add scale to our core competencies and deliver value to our clients.

儘管利率環境高度波動，HilltopSecurities 仍繳出穩健的第一季成績，稅前盈餘年增 60%。公司持續在核心專長上擴大規模，並為客戶創造價值。

Moving to page 4. Hilltop maintained strong capital levels with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 19.1%. Additionally, tangible book value per share increased to $31.97. During the period, we returned $11.8 million to stockholders through dividends and repurchased $47.5 million in shares.

請看第 4 頁。Hilltop 維持強勁的資本水準，普通股權第一級資本比率（CET1）為 19.1%。此外，每股有形帳面價值提升至 31.97 美元。本期我們透過股利向股東返還 1,180 萬美元，並回購 4,750 萬美元股票。

Thank you. And I'll now turn the presentation over to Will to discuss our financials in more detail.

謝謝。接下來我將把簡報交給 Will，請他更詳細地說明我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Jeremy, and I'll start on page 5. As Jeremy discussed, for the first-quarter of 2026, Hilltop reported consolidated income attributable to common stockholders of $37.8 million, equating to $0.64 per diluted share. The quarter's results included 7% growth in net interest income, driven by ongoing efforts to manage deposit levels and costs, coupled with approximately 5% year-over-year average HFI loan growth at PlainsCapital Bank.

謝謝你，Jeremy。我將從第 5 頁開始。如 Jeremy 所述，2026 年第一季 Hilltop 報告歸屬於普通股股東的合併淨利為 3,780 萬美元，折合稀釋後每股盈餘 0.64 美元。本季結果包含淨利息收入成長 7%，主要由持續管理存款水位與成本的努力所帶動，並結合 PlainsCapital Bank 約 5% 的 HFI 放款平均餘額年增。

In addition, PrimeLending and HilltopSecurities delivered growth in fees driven by improved origination volume and margins in mortgage and improved fixed income trading results during the first-quarter of 2026. I would like to remind all call participants that the prior year's first-quarter results included $41.8 million of revenue and $28.8 million of net income related to the sale of the merchant banking investment and a legal recovery at PlainsCapital Bank.

此外，PrimeLending 與 HilltopSecurities 的手續費收入亦呈成長，主要受惠於 2026 年第一季房貸承作量與利差改善，以及固定收益交易結果改善。我也想提醒所有與會者，去年第一季結果包含與出售商人銀行投資相關的 4,180 萬美元收入，以及 PlainsCapital Bank 的法律追償所帶來的 2,880 萬美元淨利。

Turning to page 6. During the first-quarter, Hilltop's allowance for credit losses declined by $2.5 million to $89 million. This decline is largely attributable to a modest improvement in the overall credit quality of the portfolio, including the net impact of positive credit rating migration, payoffs and new loan growth during the quarter.

請看第 6 頁。第一季 Hilltop 的信用損失準備（allowance for credit losses）減少 250 萬美元至 8,900 萬美元。此一下降主要歸因於投資組合整體信用品質小幅改善，包括本季正向信用評等遷移、還款結清以及新增放款成長的淨影響。

While the economic condition impact during the first-quarter was limited, we do believe that the macroeconomic environment, including the geopolitical landscape will continue to provide volatility and uncertainty in future periods. As we've stated since the introduction of CECL, we believe that the allowance for credit losses could be volatile and the future changes in the allowance will be driven by net loan growth in the portfolio credit migration trends and changes to the macroeconomic outlook over time. As of March 31, allowance for credit losses of $89 million yields an ACL to total loans HFI ratio of 106 basis points.

雖然第一季經濟情勢的影響有限，但我們確實認為，包含地緣政治局勢在內的總體經濟環境，將在未來期間持續帶來波動與不確定性。自 CECL 導入以來我們即表示，我們認為信用損失準備可能具有波動性，而未來準備金的變動將由投資組合的淨放款成長、信用遷移趨勢，以及總體經濟展望隨時間的變化所驅動。截至 3 月 31 日，8,900 萬美元的信用損失準備使 ACL 對 HFI 放款總額比率為 106 個基點。

Turning to page 7. Net interest income in the first-quarter equated to $112 million, including $1.3 million of purchase accounting accretion versus the prior year same period net interest income increased by $7 million or 6.7%, reflecting our ongoing efforts to prudently lower deposit costs while continuing to focus on growing customer deposits and relationships across the franchise.

翻到第 7 頁。第一季淨利息收入為 1.12 億美元，其中包含 130 萬美元的購併會計增值攤銷（purchase accounting accretion）；相較去年同期，淨利息收入增加 700 萬美元或 6.7%，反映我們持續致力於審慎降低存款成本，同時持續聚焦於在整體據點中擴大客戶存款與客戶關係。

At this point in the rate cut cycle, the team at PlainsCapital Bank has achieved an interest-bearing deposit beta from the first 175 basis points of reductions from the Federal Reserve of 74%. While we're pleased with these results to date, we recognize that competitive intensity and pricing pressures could escalate in the future. Our current expectation for a through-the-cycle interest-bearing deposit beta is 60% to 65%.

在本次降息循環的此一階段，PlainsCapital Bank 團隊就聯準會前 175 個基點的降幅，已達成 74% 的計息存款 beta。雖然我們對目前為止的成果感到滿意，但也認知到未來競爭強度與定價壓力可能升高。我們目前對「穿越景氣循環」的計息存款 beta 之預期為 60% 至 65%。

In addition to the improved interest-bearing deposit beta outcome, Hilltop's overall asset mix has improved versus the prior year with average excess cash levels declining by approximately $1.1 billion, while average HFI loans have grown by approximately $407 million. We expect that this mix shift will continue to benefit net interest income into the future quarters. Currently, our estimates for future NII and NIM reflect our expectation that the Fed will execute two additional rate reductions in 2026.

除了計息存款 beta 的改善成果外，Hilltop 的整體資產組合相較去年亦有所改善：平均超額現金水位約下降 11 億美元，而平均 HFI（持有供投資）放款約增加 4.07 億美元。我們預期此一組合轉移將在未來季度持續有利於淨利息收入。目前，我們對未來 NII 與 NIM 的估計，反映我們預期聯準會將在 2026 年再執行兩次降息。

I'm turning to page 8. first-quarter average total deposits were approximately $10.6 billion and have declined by approximately $82 million or less than 1% versus the fourth-quarter of 2025. On an ending balance basis, deposits declined by $347 million to $10.5 billion from the prior quarter ending balance level. The decline in deposit balances reflects the expected outflows during the quarter from certain of our public entity and commercial clients, specifically related to seasonal distributions. Our expectation is that deposits will stabilize and grow throughout the second half of 2026.

我翻到第 8 頁。第一季平均總存款約為 106 億美元，較 2025 年第四季約下降 8,200 萬美元或不到 1%。以期末餘額計，存款較前一季期末水位下降 3.47 億美元至 105 億美元。存款餘額下滑反映本季來自部分公部門與商業客戶的預期資金流出，主要與季節性分配相關。我們預期存款將在 2026 年下半年趨於穩定並成長。

Looking at the chart on the left of the page, we're very pleased with the stability in our noninterest-bearing deposits as our banking teams continue to focus on growing relationships, including growth in our treasury management suite of products. During the quarter, total interest-bearing cost declined from the prior quarter by 20 basis points to 249 basis points as of March 31.

看左側圖表，我們對無息存款的穩定性非常滿意，因為我們的銀行團隊持續聚焦於深化客戶關係，包括推動我們現金管理（treasury management）產品組合的成長。本季，計息存款總成本較前一季下降 20 個基點，截至 3 月 31 日為 249 個基點。

Given the current market conditions, including a competitive operating environment, we do expect that interest-bearing deposit costs will begin to stabilize at these levels until we see additional movement from the Federal Reserve.

鑑於目前市場狀況（包括競爭激烈的營運環境），我們確實預期計息存款成本將在此水準開始趨於穩定，直到我們看到聯準會有進一步動作。

Moving to page 9. Total non-interest income for the first-quarter of 2026 equated to $188 million. First-quarter mortgage-related income and fees increased by $5 million versus the first-quarter of 2025, reflecting growth in loan origination volumes of 16%. While the mortgage market had begun to stabilize during the fourth-quarter of 2025 and the beginning of the first-quarter of 2026, the volatility created by concerns over the Iran conflict has impacted markets interest rates and slowed mortgage demand during the latter part of the first-quarter.

翻到第 9 頁。2026 年第一季總非利息收入為 1.88 億美元。第一季與房貸相關的收入與費用較 2025 年第一季增加 500 萬美元，反映放款承作量成長 16%。雖然房貸市場在 2025 年第四季及 2026 年第一季初已開始趨於穩定，但對伊朗衝突的疑慮所造成的波動影響了市場利率，並在第一季後段放緩了房貸需求。

Given the uncertainty regarding the ongoing conflict and its impact on inflation, yields and housing demand, we are maintaining our mortgage production volume expectation at $9 billion to $10 billion for the year. In addition, we expect the gain on sale margins will remain relatively stable at the current levels given these environmental challenges.

鑑於對持續衝突及其對通膨、殖利率與住房需求影響的不確定性，我們維持全年房貸生產量（mortgage production volume）預期為 90 億至 100 億美元。此外，考量這些環境挑戰，我們預期出售利得（gain on sale）利差將在目前水準附近維持相對穩定。

Further, revenue from principal transactions, commissions and fees increased by $11.2 million, driven primarily by growth in fixed income services, coupled with growth in wealth management and structured finance. The most significant driver of the decline in revenue recorded in other non-interest income, related to the sale of merchant banking investment during the prior year same period, which as noted on the slide, equated to $41.8 million.

另外，本金交易、佣金與手續費收入增加 1,120 萬美元，主要由固定收益服務成長所帶動，並搭配財富管理與結構融資的成長。其他非利息收入中所記錄收入下滑的最主要因素，與去年同期出售商人銀行投資（merchant banking investment）相關；如投影片所示，該項金額為 4,180 萬美元。

It does remain important to recognize that both fixed income services and structured finance businesses, HilltopSecurities can be volatile from period-to-period as they are impacted by interest rates, overall market liquidity and production trends.

同時仍需注意，固定收益服務與結構融資業務在 HilltopSecurities 可能會因利率、整體市場流動性與承作趨勢而呈現期間與期間之間的波動。

Turning to page 10. Noninterest expenses remained relatively stable from the same period in the prior year, declining by $3 million to $248 million. During the prior year same period, expenses were impacted by $4.8 million, resulting from the net impact of the merchant banking investment sale and the recovery recorded in professional services.

翻到第 10 頁。非利息費用相較去年同期大致維持穩定，下降 300 萬美元至 2.48 億美元。去年同期的費用受到 480 萬美元影響，係由出售商人銀行投資的淨影響，以及專業服務費用所記錄的回收（recovery）之淨效果所致。

Looking forward, we expect expenses other than variable compensation will remain relatively stable as the ongoing focused efforts related to streamlining our operations and improving productivity continue to support lower headcount and improved throughput across our franchise, helping to offset the ongoing inflationary pressures that persist in the market.

展望未來，我們預期除變動薪酬外的費用將維持相對穩定；我們持續聚焦於精簡營運與提升生產力的努力，將持續支持較低的人力規模與整體據點更高的處理效率，並有助於抵銷市場中仍持續存在的通膨壓力。

Turning to page 11. First-quarter average HFI loans equated to $8.3 billion, which grew by $218 million or 2.7% versus the fourth-quarter levels. Continuing from 2025 and into the first-quarter of 2026, we have continued to see solid activity across our commercial loan pipelines. Growth in the pipeline has been geographically dispersed centered in commercial real estate lending.

翻到第 11 頁。第一季平均 HFI 放款為 83 億美元，較第四季水準增加 2.18 億美元或 2.7%。延續 2025 年並進入 2026 年第一季，我們持續看到商業放款案源（pipeline）維持穩健活動。案源成長在地理分布上相當分散，並以商用不動產放款為核心。

Further, while the most recent pipeline trends are encouraging, we are monitoring for any negative demand impacts resulting from the current conflict in the Middle East, higher interest rates and higher oil and gas prices. Based on the current business flows, we are expecting full year average HFI loan growth to range between 4% and 6%.

此外，儘管近期案源趨勢令人鼓舞，我們仍在監測是否會因目前中東衝突、較高利率以及較高油氣價格而對需求造成任何負面影響。根據目前的業務流量，我們預期全年平均 HFI 放款成長將介於 4% 至 6%。

As noted in prior quarters, we continue to retain mortgages originated PrimeLending and would expect to continue to do so in the coming quarters. Our expectation is that we will retain between $10 million and $30 million per month.

如同前幾季所提，我們持續保留（retain）PrimeLending 所承作的房貸，並預期未來幾季仍將如此。我們預期每月將保留 1,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元。

I'm moving to page 12. first-quarter's results include $4.3 million of net charge-offs. This quarter's net charge-offs largely reflect the write-down of loans within the auto note finance credits that we've discussed over prior quarters. During the first-quarter, the net charge-offs in the Auto Note portfolio equated to $3.6 million. As shown in the chart in the upper right of the page, nonperforming assets increased modestly, driven largely by the negative migration of one credit in our commercial real estate portfolio.

我翻到第 12 頁。第一季結果包含 430 萬美元的淨沖銷（net charge-offs）。本季淨沖銷主要反映我們在前幾季已討論過的汽車票據融資（auto note finance）授信中的放款減記。第一季汽車票據投資組合的淨沖銷為 360 萬美元。如頁面右上方圖表所示，不良資產小幅上升，主要由我們商用不動產投資組合中一筆授信的負向遷徙所驅動。

Regarding credit overall, we've not seen any prevailing trends that cause undue concern in our portfolio. However, we do continue to monitor all aspects of the portfolio very closely as higher interest rates, international conflicts and higher energy prices could have a negative impact on our clients over the coming quarters.

就整體信用而言，我們尚未看到任何在投資組合中普遍存在、會引發過度擔憂的趨勢。然而，我們仍持續非常密切地監控投資組合的各個面向，因為較高利率、國際衝突與較高能源價格可能在未來幾季對我們的客戶造成負面影響。

Moving to page 13. As we move through the second-quarter of 2026, there continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the market regarding interest rates, inflation and the overall health of the economy. We are pleased with the current positioning of our balance sheet and the ongoing work that our team is executing each day to move our company forward through what has been an ever-changing operating environment.

翻到第 13 頁。進入 2026 年第二季，市場對利率、通膨以及整體經濟健康狀況仍存在高度不確定性。我們對目前資產負債表的配置感到滿意，也肯定團隊每天持續推動公司向前的工作，以因應這個不斷變動的營運環境。

As is noted in the table, our outlook for 2026 reflects our current assessment of the economy and the markets where we participate. Further, as the market changes and we adjust our business to respond, we will provide updates to our outlook on future quarterly calls.

如表格所示，我們對 2026 年的展望反映我們目前對經濟以及我們所參與市場的評估。此外，隨著市場變化以及我們調整業務以因應，我們將在未來每季的電話會議中更新我們的展望。

Operator, that concludes our prepared comments, and we'll turn the call back to you for the Q&A section of the call.

接線員，我們的準備發言到此結束，接下來把電話交回給您，進入本次電話會議的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Woody Lay, KBW.

（接線員指示）Woody Lay，KBW。

This is Hannah Wynn in for Woody Lay. My first question is on the NII range that you gave. I saw it bumped up this quarter from your previous guidance. And I was wondering if you could give a little color into this and where you're seeing loan yields come on and also where you might expect this to change if we don't end up seeing a rate cut this year.

我是 Hannah Wynn，代替 Woody Lay。我第一個問題是關於你們提供的 NII 區間。我看到你們本季相較先前指引有所上調。我想請你們多補充一些背景：你們在哪些地方看到放款殖利率開始上來？另外，如果今年最終沒有降息，你們預期這會在哪些方面出現變化？

Thanks, Hannah, for the question. Well, as we noted kind of in the prepared comments, we've seen what we believe to be pretty solid loan growth. We expect that loan growth to continue throughout the year. We're also seeing, as we noted, an improved deposit beta, the 74% through the cycle, while we would expect that likely diminishes if there are additional Fed rate cuts, we're very pleased with kind of where that has positioned us.

謝謝你，Hannah，謝謝你的提問。嗯，正如我們在準備發言中提到的，我們看到我們認為相當穩健的放款成長。我們預期這樣的放款成長將在全年持續。同時我們也看到，如我們所提到的，存款 beta 有所改善，在本輪循環中達到 74%；雖然若聯準會進一步降息，我們預期該數字可能會下降，但我們對這樣的定位所帶來的效果感到非常滿意。

So that was the basis in large part for the increase in the guide. As it relates to overall loan yields, our going on loan yields during the quarter were about 6.5% overall. So that's -- we view that as pretty favorable.

因此，這在很大程度上就是我們上調指引的基礎。就整體貸款收益率而言，我們本季的在帳貸款收益率整體約為 6.5%。所以——我們認為這相當有利。

Okay. Great. And then my other question is on the capital front. I know you guys were active again on buybacks this quarter and wondering where you expect this activity to continue and also where you would put M&A in your capital priorities right now?

好的。很好。那我另一個問題是關於資本面。我知道你們這一季又積極進行庫藏股回購，想請問你們預期這項活動會如何延續？另外，就你們目前的資本配置優先順序而言，你們會把併購（M&A）放在什麼位置？

This is Jeremy. Yeah, we were active. I think we're being more consistent with our repurchases this past quarter. And we have an authorization of $125 million for the year. So we'll be market dependent. We'll be looking for us to be consistent in our share repurchase and M&A is always available to us. We have the resources and the balance sheet. I think that -- so it would be a priority if we have the right strategic fit or if it is also a financially compelling transaction.

我是 Jeremy。是的，我們確實很積極。我認為我們在上一季的回購更為一致。我們今年的回購授權額度為 1.25 億美元。因此我們會視市場情況而定。我們會力求在股票回購上保持一致性，而併購對我們而言也一直是可行選項。我們有資源也有資產負債表。我認為——如果有合適的策略契合，或同時在財務上具吸引力的交易，那它就會成為優先事項。

Matt Olney, Stephens.

Matt Olney，Stephens。

I want to dig more into your mortgage expectations for the remainder of the year. Will, I think you mentioned you're keeping the mortgage volume guidance for the full year unchanged. I guess some of the other -- I think some of the other third parties have moved more cautious if rates have increased in recent months. So anything else you can share about your outlook here? And I see you're assuming some Fed cuts in the NII guidance. I'm curious if you're also assuming lower rates with your mortgage outlook.

我想更深入了解你們對今年剩餘時間房貸的預期。Will，我想你提到你們維持全年房貸量的指引不變。我猜其他——我想一些第三方在最近幾個月利率上升後變得更保守。你還能分享更多你們的展望嗎？另外我看到你們在淨利息收入（NII）指引中假設聯準會會降息。我也好奇你們在房貸展望中是否同樣假設利率會走低。

Thanks for the question. From a mortgage perspective, what we're kind of asserting here is we don't have clear visibility into the buying season for the second and early part of the third-quarter. What we do see, and we noted in our comments was more muted demand in March and certainly directly after the conflict began overseas.

謝謝你的問題。就房貸而言，我們在這裡的主張是：對第二季以及第三季初的購屋旺季，我們沒有清楚的能見度。我們確實看到的——而且我們在評論中也提到——是 3 月的需求較為疲弱，且在海外衝突爆發後的那段時間尤其明顯。

And so as a result of that, we likely are moving. We would say we're going to -- we're still within the range. But if we -- historically, we guided -- if you look through our guidance, it's kind of midpoint. And so as we see softness, you could move to the lower end. But that said, it all depends on how temporary kind of the effects are and how the overall market recovers once the conflict is resolved.

因此，基於這點，我們可能會調整。我們會說——我們仍在區間之內。但如果我們——歷史上，我們的指引——如果你回頭看我們的指引，通常是以中位數為主。因此當我們看到疲弱時，你可能會往區間的下緣移動。不過話說回來，這一切都取決於這些影響是多麼短暫，以及當衝突解決後整體市場如何復甦。

So we're kind of cautiously optimistic there. And I know the team at PrimeLending continues to work hard to grow the business and originate mortgages for our customers. So that's the primary view there. As we get more clarity around the impacts and the longevity of the impacts, we'll provide more perspective next quarter.

所以我們在這方面是審慎樂觀的。我也知道 PrimeLending 的團隊持續努力拓展業務，為我們的客戶承作房貸。這就是主要觀點。隨著我們對影響程度與影響持續時間有更清楚的掌握，我們會在下季提供更多看法。

Okay. Well, what about -- specifically about your rate assumptions. I mean we see the NII assumptions and the rate backdrop there. But what about the broker-dealer, the mortgage piece? Are you assuming any rate changes in other -- is it kind of through the entire enterprise? Just any more color on your rate assumptions.

好的。我想問——更具體地說，你們對利率假設是什麼？我的意思是，我們看到 NII 的假設與利率背景。但就券商（broker-dealer）、房貸這一塊呢？你們是否在其他——是否在整個企業層面都假設有利率變動？想請你們再多補充一些利率假設的細節。

Yeah. So we -- our current assessment is two additional rate cuts, and we apply that across all of our businesses consistently. We also apply that to all of our guidance consistently. So that is the basis. I'd tell you, if we got no cuts, and that was all that occurred, which is also a pretty static and sterile analysis. But if that occurred, you could see NII move higher $8 million to $10 million, and then we would see likely a slightly better or improved revenue perspective in HilltopSecurities as well.

是的。所以我們——目前的評估是再有兩次降息，而且我們會一致地把這個假設套用到所有業務。我們也會一致地把它套用到所有指引。因此這就是基礎。我可以告訴你，如果完全沒有降息，而那就是全部發生的事——這當然也是一個相當靜態、相當理想化的分析——但如果真是如此，你可能會看到 NII 增加 800 萬到 1,000 萬美元，而我們也可能會在 HilltopSecurities 看到略為更好或改善的營收展望。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then as far as the net interest margin, great margin performance this quarter. It looks like the driver, interest-bearing deposit costs went lower. I was hoping you could speak to any more drivers of the margin performance this quarter? And just how sustainable do you think these levels are?

好的，感謝說明。接著談淨利差（NIM），本季利差表現很強。看起來驅動因素是計息存款成本下降。我想請你談談本季利差表現還有哪些其他驅動因素？以及你認為這些水準有多可持續？

Yeah. So I think from a deposit perspective, we feel good about the work the team has done. The 74% interest-bearing deposit beta through this point in the cycle, we feel very good about and it's higher than we've historically modeled or experienced. That said, there -- and we noted this, there continues to be kind of ongoing competitive intensity.

好的。我想從存款角度來看，我們對團隊所做的工作感到很有信心。本輪利率循環至今，計息存款的 beta 為 74%，我們對此非常滿意，這也高於我們過去的模型假設或歷史經驗。話雖如此——而且我們也提到——競爭強度仍在持續。

And by virtue of that, we could see the need to increase deposit rates modestly. That said, we're going to be cautious and thoughtful about that because we are focused on growing overall relationships and deposit balances over time. And that's why I noted that our kind of through the cycle, if we get some additional Fed activity in terms of downward rates, we'd expect to see that beta back up to the 60% to 65% level.

也因此，我們可能會看到需要小幅提高存款利率。不過，我們會對此保持審慎並深思熟慮，因為我們的重點是隨時間推進，擴大整體往來關係與存款餘額。這也是我提到的原因：從整個循環來看，如果聯準會在利率下行方面有進一步動作，我們預期 beta 會回到 60% 到 65% 的水準。

And so that's kind of how we're thinking about it. As you look at NIM, we do believe we've kind of gotten to a peak NIM level given a consistent Fed. And so we would guide NIM flat to modestly down from here. And again, we feel good about the guidance we provided on NII as it relates to both interest rates as well as our balance sheet positioning and our overall deposit cost.

這就是我們的思考方式。就 NIM 而言，在聯準會維持一致政策的情況下，我們確實認為我們已經到達 NIM 的高峰水準。因此我們的指引是：NIM 從這裡起持平到小幅下滑。再次強調，我們對所提供的 NII 指引感到有信心，這與利率以及我們的資產負債表配置與整體存款成本都有關。

Cole Martin, Raymond James.

Cole Martin，Raymond James。

I'm on for Mike Rose this morning. Just on expenses, I was hoping you could talk through your no variable expenses guide of zero to 2% and kind of what the puts and takes would be to really get to flat growth this year? And then also how much of that is technology driven?

我今天早上代替 Mike Rose 提問。關於費用面，我想請你說明一下你們「不含變動費用」的 0% 到 2% 指引，以及要讓今年成長真的做到持平，主要的正負因素會是什麼？另外，其中有多少是由科技所驅動？

Yeah. So I think the guide really presumes, I'd say, normal inflationary increases in personnel-related expenses as well as our technology service provider costs. Those are in there. We are obviously making thoughtful investments across the franchise to grow our bankers, our client-facing and customer-facing associate groups. And so that's really the basis of what would drive it higher.

好的。我認為這個指引基本上假設了：人員相關費用的正常通膨式增加，以及我們科技服務供應商成本的增加。這些都包含在內。我們顯然也在整個平台上進行審慎投資，以擴充我們的銀行家團隊、面向客戶與面向顧客的同仁群體。因此，這就是推動費用上升的主要基礎。

And we would expect it to be modestly higher on a year-over-year basis, just given those investments that we're making. Obviously, we continue to make investments in technology, our data platforms, the deployment of AI where practical across our organization certainly is a key focus as well. And those investments are kind of considered in the guidance as well as we look forward.

而且考量到我們正在進行的這些投資，我們預期費用在年對年基礎上會小幅增加。當然，我們也持續投資於科技、資料平台，以及在可行之處於全組織部署 AI，這同樣是關鍵重點。展望未來，這些投資也都已納入指引考量。

So from an expense perspective, we are very pleased with the work the team has been able to do to drive productivity throughout the organization and keep our expenses other than variable compensation relatively stable over the last couple of years, but we do continue to see inflation, and we also expect to continue to make again, investments in client-facing resources as well as technology to continue to position the organization to be successful into the future.

因此從費用角度來看，我們對團隊能夠推動全組織生產力、並在過去幾年讓除變動薪酬以外的費用相對穩定的成果感到非常滿意；但我們確實仍看到通膨，也預期會持續投資於面向客戶的資源以及科技，以持續讓組織在未來保持成功的定位。

Great. And then on deposits, I was hoping you could give a little bit of color on how much of an impact deposit competition that's had and kind of where you see the health of the consumer going out through 2026?

很好。接著在存款方面，我想請你補充一下存款競爭帶來的影響有多大，以及你如何看待消費者的健康狀況一路延伸到 2026 年？

Yeah. So I think deposit competition remains robust for sure. And what I would say is we've seen largely rational behavior, what we would call largely rational behavior by the competitive set through this portion of the rate cycle. And so we've been able to operate within that.

好的。我認為存款競爭確實仍然很激烈。我想說的是，在本輪利率循環的這個階段，我們看到競爭對手的行為大致上是理性的——我們稱之為大致理性的行為。因此我們能在這樣的環境中運作。

And so when I say rational, we don't see a lot of competitors offering rates that we would call irrationally high, even though there's certainly activity out there to kind of grow clients and teaser rates and the thing and the like. So from that perspective, we feel like the competitive intensity is still there. It's pretty high. But that said, it seems rational at this point.

所以我說理性，是指我們沒有看到很多競爭者提供我們認為「不理性地高」的利率，儘管市場上確實有一些活動，例如為了拓展客戶而提供促銷利率（teaser rates）等等。因此從這個角度來看，我們覺得競爭強度仍在，而且相當高。但話說回來，就目前而言看起來仍是理性的。

There are no further questions. That concludes the question-and-answer session and today's call. You may now disconnect.

沒有其他問題了。問答環節以及今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以中斷連線。