惠普 (HPQ) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

惠普公司召開電話會議,討論 2024 年第四季的收益,強調了個人系統和列印領域的收入成長,以及他們對創新和永續發展的策略重點。他們報告了穩健的財務業績,計劃在 2025 財年實現收入成長,並將年度股息增加 5%。

該公司討論了維持獲利能力、解決商品成本壓力以及專注於人工智慧驅動的產品和勞動力解決方案等關鍵領域成長的策略。他們對未來的業績以及個人電腦和列印市場的成長機會持樂觀態度。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the fourth-quarter 2024 HP Inc. conference call. My name is Lisa, and I'll be your conference moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

    大家好,歡迎參加 HP Inc. 2024 年第四季電話會議。我叫麗莎,我將擔任今天電話會議的會議主持人。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製以供重播之用。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Orit Keinan-Nahon, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Orit Keinan-Nahon。請繼續。

  • Orit Keinan-Nahon - Investor Relations

    Orit Keinan-Nahon - Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to HP's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me today are Enrique Lores, HP's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Karen Parkhill, HP's Chief Financial Officer.

    大家下午好,歡迎參加惠普 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有惠普總裁兼執行長 Enrique Lores;以及惠普財務長凱倫‧帕克希爾 (Karen Parkhill)。

  • Before handing the call over to Enrique, let me remind you that this call is a webcast, and a replay will be available on our website shortly after the call for approximately one year. We posted the earnings release and accompanying slide presentation our investor relations web page at investor.hp.com.

    在將通話轉交給恩里克之前,請允許我提醒您,本次通話是網路廣播,通話後不久將在我們的網站上提供大約一年的重播。我們在投資者關係網頁上發布了收益報告和隨附的幻燈片演示,網址為investor.hp.com。

  • As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. For more detailed information, please see disclaimers in the earnings materials relating to forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions.

    與往常一樣,本簡報的內容具有前瞻性,並且基於我們對當今世界和業務的最佳看法。欲了解更多詳細信息,請參閱收益資料中與涉及風險、不確定性和假設的前瞻性陳述相關的免責聲明。

  • For a discussion of some of these risks uncertainties and assumptions, please refer to HP's SEC reports including our most recent Form 10-K. HP assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements.

    有關其中一些風險、不確定性和假設的討論,請參閱 HP 的 SEC 報告,包括我們最新的 10-K 表格。惠普不承擔任何義務,也不打算更新任何此類前瞻性聲明。

  • We also note that the financial information discussed on this call reflects estimates based on information available now, and could differ materially from the amounts ultimately reported in HP's SEC filings. During this webcast, unless otherwise specifically noted, all comparisons are year over year comparisons with the corresponding year ago period.

    我們也注意到,本次電話會議中討論的財務資訊反映了基於​​現有資訊的估計,可能與惠普向 SEC 文件中最終報告的金額有重大差異。在本次網路直播中,除非另有特別說明,所有比較均為與去年同期的逐年比較。

  • In addition, unless otherwise noted references to HP channel inventory, refer to tier one channel inventory and market share references are based on calendar quarter information. For financial information that has been expressed on a non-GAAP basis, we've included reconciliations to the comparable GAAP information. Please refer to the tables and slide presentation accompanying today's earnings release for those reconciliations.

    此外,除非另有說明,否則提及惠普通路庫存時,均指一級通路庫存,而市佔率參考則基於日曆季度資訊。對於以非 GAAP 基礎表述的財務訊息,我們已包含可比較 GAAP 資訊的調整。請參閱今天收益發布所附的表格和幻燈片演示,以了解這些對帳情況。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Enrique.

    說到這裡,我想把電話轉給恩里克。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Orit, and thank you all, for joining today's call. Today, we will cover our Q4 performance and 2024 full year results. We will also discuss expectations for the year ahead, and how we are sharpening our strategic focus to lead the future of work.

    謝謝奧里特,也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。今天,我們將介紹我們的第四季業績和 2024 年全年業績。我們還將討論對未來一年的期望,以及我們如何強化策略重點以引領未來的工作。

  • Let's start with our Q4 results. For the second consecutive quarter, revenue was up 2% year-over-year, both personal systems and print demonstrated steady progress. In personal systems, commercial units and share gains were strong contributors to revenue growth. In print, we drove revenue growth for the first time in fiscal year '21.

    讓我們從第四季的業績開始。營收連續第二季年增 2%,個人系統和印刷業務均取得穩定進展。在個人系統中,商業單位和份額收益是收入成長的重要貢獻者。在印刷方面,我們在 21 財年首次推動了營收成長。

  • Our growth businesses also performed well, significantly contributing to our growth in the quarter. Non-GAAP EPS grew 3% to $0.93 in line with outlook. We accelerated our future ready structural cost saving plans while continuing to invest in our growth businesses. In short, we did what we said we would do. Q4 also capped off an exceptional year of innovation at our annual HP Imagine event in September.

    我們的成長業務也表現良好,為我們本季的成長做出了重大貢獻。非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 3%,至 0.93 美元,與預期一致。我們加快了面向未來的結構性成本節約計劃,同時繼續投資於我們的成長型業務。簡而言之,我們做了我們說過要做的事。第四季也在 9 月的年度 HP Imagine 活動中結束了非凡的創新年。

  • We showcase breakthrough experiences and platforms with new AI powered capabilities. Our expanded AI PC portfolio is now equipped with HP AI companion a bespoke application. The app uses generative AI to help analyze private files, create content, or respond quickly to key tasks. Through partnerships with a growing number of software companies, we are bringing to life even more experiences for our customers.

    我們展示具有新的人工智慧支援功能的突破性體驗和平台。我們擴展的 AI PC 產品組合現已配備 HP AI 伴侶(客製化應用程式)。該應用程式使用生成式人工智慧來幫助分析私人文件、創建內容或快速回應關鍵任務。透過與越來越多的軟體公司合作,我們正在為客戶帶來更多體驗。

  • For example, we are collaborating with Zoom to power AI companion with own device capabilities that can streamline meeting preparation, quickly locate relevant documents, and automating key tasks based on in meeting decisions.

    例如,我們正在與 Zoom 合作,為人工智慧伴侶提供自己的設備功能,可以簡化會議準備、快速找到相關文檔,並根據會議決策自動執行關鍵任務。

  • These types of experiences illustrate how powerful next Gen AI compute will be in the workforce. We also launched HP Boost, a solution that allows data scientists and AI developers to share GPUs remotely, and we continue to enhance our workforce experience platform, adding the ability to monitor and manage printers and integrate in popular business applications from Microsoft and ServiceNow.

    這些類型的體驗說明了下一代人工智慧運算將在勞動力中發揮多麼強大的作用。我們還推出了HP Boost,這是一種允許資料科學家和人工智慧開發人員遠端共享GPU 的解決方案,並且我們繼續增強我們的員工體驗平台,增加監控和管理印表機以及整合Microsoft 和ServiceNow 的熱門業務應用程序的能力。

  • Our recent acquisition of Vyopta, a provider of collaboration management solutions will strengthen the platform. It will offer customers comprehensive control over their digital ecosystems from a single dashboard. In the AI PC category, we continue to lead with performance and security. We are delivering powerful experiences, industry leading battery life, and flexible form factors.

    我們最近收購了協作管理解決方案供應商 Vyopta,這將增強該平台。它將讓客戶透過一個儀表板全面控制其數位生態系統。在AI PC類別中,我們繼續在效能和安全性方面保持領先。我們提供強大的體驗、業界領先的電池壽命和靈活的外形尺寸。

  • Building on our consumer launches last quarter, we introduced the most powerful next Gen AI business notebook. The EliteBook X, is Ideal for tech experts and business consultants who run large applications for analysis.

    在上季度推出的消費者產品的基礎上,我們推出了最強大的下一代人工智慧商務筆記型電腦。 EliteBook X 是執行大型應用程式進行分析的技術專家和商業顧問的理想選擇。

  • It is powered by an industry leading 55 TOPS of NPU performance. At the same time, it offers AI enhanced protection to secure the most sensitive data. Freelancers and creators can also power their work with the OmniBook Ultra Flip, our first two in one AI PC. With it, they have the ability to design with AI, whether sketching, editing, or collaborating. And with the power of HP Wolf security, they can keep data secure and protected.

    它由業界領先的 55 TOPS NPU 效能提供支援。同時,它提供人工智慧增強保護,以保護最敏感的資料。自由工作者和創作者還可以使用我們的首款二合一人工智慧電腦 OmniBook Ultra Flip 來加強他們的工作。有了它,他們就有能力利用人工智慧進行設計,無論是草圖、編輯還是協作。借助 HP Wolf 安全功能的強大功能,他們可以確保資料安全並受到保護。

  • Beyond the PC, we showed how we are making printing smarter with HP print AI. It is the industry's first AI powered intelligent print experience that simplifies and enhances printing. The perfect output feature uses AI to deliver the perfect print solving universal frustrations like spreadsheets and tables printing over multiple pages.

    除了 PC 之外,我們還展示瞭如何利用 HP Print AI 讓列印變得更聰明。這是業界首個人工智慧驅動的智慧列印體驗,可簡化和增強列印。完美的輸出功能使用人工智慧提供完美的列印,解決了普遍存在的問題,例如跨頁列印電子表格和表格。

  • Our innovations this quarter underscore our commitment to delivering impactful customer driven solutions to define the future of work. Before I continue, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the incredible teams across HP delivering these experiences. Your commitment to innovating for our customers, partners and the planet is inspiring.

    我們本季的創新強調了我們致力於提供有影響力的客戶驅動解決方案來定義工作的未來的承諾。在繼續之前,我想花點時間向 HP 提供這些體驗的出色團隊表示感謝。您為我們的客戶、合作夥伴和地球進行創新的承諾令人鼓舞。

  • Let me now turn to business unit performance. For the third consecutive quarter, revenue in personal systems goes up year-over-year with 2% growth driven by strength in commercial. We saw continued pressure on commodity cost which impacted operating profit, and we will continue to take actions on pricing and cost to mitigate this over time.

    現在讓我談談業務部門的績效。在商業實力的推動下,個人系統收入連續第三個季度年增 2%。我們看到商品成本持續面臨壓力,影響了營業利潤,我們將繼續在定價和成本方面採取行動,以隨著時間的推移緩解這種壓力。

  • We drove gains in worldwide PC market share year over year, particularly in high value categories including commercial and consumer premium. We believe there is more opportunity here and we will continue to prioritize these categories. AI PC units this quarter, we're more than 15% of our shipments.

    我們推動了全球個人電腦市場份額的逐年成長,特別是在包括商業和消費者高端在內的高價值類別。我們相信這裡有更多機會,我們將繼續優先考慮這些類別。本季 AI PC 出貨量占我們出貨量的 15% 以上。

  • In fact, as recently published by Canalys, we have the number one market share of AI PC in the Windows ecosystem and we intend to maintain this position. Looking ahead the power of AI coupled with the strength of our portfolio will enable us to deliver new levels of efficiency and security critical to the future of work.

    事實上,正如 Canalys 最近發布的,我們在 Windows 生態系統中的 AI PC 市場份額排名第一,並且我們打算保持這一位置。展望未來,人工智慧的力量加上我們產品組合的優勢將使我們能夠將效率和安全性提高到新的水平,這對未來的工作至關重要。

  • We expect AI PC penetration to continue to further strengthen our commercial leadership. And since the Windows 11 refresh has ramped slower than previous industry transitions, we expect to see the impact of the upgrade to be more pronounced in 2025.

    我們預計人工智慧 PC 的滲透率將繼續進一步加強我們的商業領先地位。由於 Windows 11 的更新速度比之前的產業轉型速度慢,我們預計升級的影響將在 2025 年更加明顯。

  • In the growth areas, hybrid systems and PS Services deliver strong performance, with revenue up year over year, and we grew gain revenue quarter over quarter in line with normal seasonality. Turning to print revenue grew 1% year-over-year, the increase was fueled by strong performance in supplies and industrial graphics, offset in part by a competitive pricing environment.

    在成長領域,混合系統和 PS 服務表現強勁,營收年增,我們的收入逐季成長,符合正常的季節性。印刷收入年增 1%,這一增長是由耗材和工業圖形的強勁表現推動的,但競爭性的定價環境在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。

  • In both home and office, we gained share year over year. In home, we continue to gain share across all categories especially in big tanks, and we delivered on our commitment to regain share in office. In growth areas, consumer services and industrial perform strongly with revenue growth year over year.

    在家庭和辦公室中,我們的份額逐年增加。在國內,我們繼續在所有類別中獲得份額,特別是在大型坦克方面,並且我們兌現了重新獲得辦公室份額的承諾。在成長領域,消費服務和工業表現強勁,收入逐年成長。

  • We believe sustainability is core to our long term growth, and we continue to operate with a sense of purpose and intentionality. For example, in Q4, our HP Renewal Solutions team received industry recognition for making it easier for customers to purchase high performing refurbished hardware.

    我們相信永續發展是我們長期成長的核心,我們將繼續帶著使命感和意圖來運作。例如,在第四季度,我們的惠普續訂解決方案團隊因幫助客戶更輕鬆地購買高性能翻新硬體而獲得了行業認可。

  • We were also recognized on Newsweek's world most trustworthy companies list. Let me now talk about the full year performance. Revenue was flat year-over-year and non-GAAP EPS grew 3% while the market recovery was slow, especially in the first half, we had a strong second half recovery with positive momentum going into the new fiscal year.

    我們也入選《新聞週刊》全球最值得信賴的公司名單。現在我來說說全年的表現。營收較去年同期持平,非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 3%,而市場復甦緩慢,尤其是上半年,下半年復甦強勁,進入新財年呈現正面動能。

  • We are pleased with our key growth areas which collectively grew faster than the rest of the portfolio and drove approximately 20% of our total company revenue for the year. We generated strong free cash flow aligned with our annual guidance.

    我們對我們的關鍵成長領域感到滿意,這些領域的成長速度總體上快於投資組合的其他領域,並推動了我們今年公司總收入的約 20%。我們產生了與年度指引相符的強勁自由現金流。

  • We returned nearly 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders in line with our long term commitment. Over the past year, we have continued to drive solid progress with our future ready strategy. We said we would invest in innovation, focusing our portfolio on growth and integrating new AI capabilities, and we have done that. We have successfully implemented new business models as we shifted more offerings to subscriptions and solutions, increasing value per customer.

    根據我們的長期承諾,我們將近 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。過去一年,我們繼續以面向未來的策略紮實推進。我們說過,我們將投資於創新,將我們的投資組合重點放在成長和整合新的人工智慧功能上,我們已經做到了。隨著我們將更多產品轉向訂閱和解決方案,我們成功實施了新的業務模式,從而增加了每個客戶的價值。

  • We told you, we were continuing to improve our operational capabilities. Here, we have taken steps to ensure a more resilient supply chain, improve our order to delivery time and reduce customer call time using AI. Overall fiscal year '24 was a year of steady progress.

    我們告訴過你,我們正在繼續提高我們的營運能力。在這裡,我們已採取措施確保供應鏈更具彈性,利用人工智慧改善訂單到交貨時間並減少客戶呼叫時間。整體而言,24 財年是穩定進步的一年。

  • We know our plans are working and we are well positioned to capitalize on new opportunities that drive sustained growth. We are looking ahead with a clear focus on leaving the future of work, with the proliferation of AI and flexible work, customer expectations have continued to evolve.

    我們知道我們的計劃正在發揮作用,我們處於有利位置,可以利用推動持續成長的新機會。展望未來,我們明確關注未來的工作方式,隨著人工智慧和彈性工作的普及,客戶的期望不斷發展。

  • Employers want to drive growth while employees are seeking professional fulfillment, at this intersection is an attractive opportunity for HP. We have our powerful portfolio of solutions and the right team in place. We believe we have what it takes to lead the next era.

    雇主希望推動成長,而員工則尋求職業成就感,這個交叉點對惠普來說是一個有吸引力的機會。我們擁有強大的解決方案組合和合適的團隊。我們相信我們有能力引領下一個時代。

  • Here is how, first we are investing and innovating aggressively in new AI powered capabilities and software, we will focus on delivering a cutting edge AI powered tech stack. This is an exciting shift for our customers everywhere. It will provide them with new insights and automation, personalized experiences and foster team collaboration.

    首先,我們在新的人工智慧驅動的功能和軟體方面積極投資和創新,我們將專注於提供尖端的人工智慧驅動的技術堆疊。對於我們各地的客戶來說,這是一個令人興奮的轉變。它將為他們提供新的見解和自動化、個人化體驗並促進團隊協作。

  • Our recently established technology and innovation organization, [Tio] brings together all our software resources into a single team. The Tio will accelerate our move from a transactional hardware company to a more experienced led organization. Second, we are leveraging the power of our portfolio to capture growth opportunities in commercial and solutions.

    我們最近成立的技術和創新組織 [Tio] 將我們所有的軟體資源整合到一個團隊中。 Tio 將加速我們從交易型硬體公司轉變為經驗更豐富的領導組織。其次,我們正在利用我們的產品組合的力量來捕捉商業和解決方案的成長機會。

  • Commercial segments are growing faster than consumer segments, and we are prioritizing accordingly. In personal systems for example, commercial time is expected to grow three times faster than consumer, and in print, contractual office and industrial time are expected to perform better than consumer and transactional office.

    商業細分市場的成長速度快於消費者細分市場,我們正在相應地確定優先順序。例如,在個人系統中,商業時間的成長速度預計是消費者的三倍,而在印刷領域,合約辦公和工業時間預計將比消費者和交易辦公室的表現更好。

  • Thirdly, we're maintaining our focus on capturing profitable growth in premium consumer and gaming. For example, we are taking measures to increase growth in consumer services building on the success of programs like our HP All in subscription plans. And in operations, we will continue to evolve our supply chain capabilities to support our future of work strategy, while ensuring supply chain resiliency, end to end process automation, and continuous improvement in our cost structure.

    第三,我們仍將重點放在優質消費者和遊戲領域的獲利成長。例如,我們正在採取措施,以 HP All in 訂閱計劃等計劃的成功為基礎,促進消費者服務的成長。在營運中,我們將繼續發展我們的供應鏈能力,以支援我們未來的工作策略,同時確保供應鏈彈性、端到端流程自動化以及成本結構的持續改進。

  • Looking forward to fiscal year '25 we assume that the PC market will grow faster than in fiscal year '24, fueled by multiple catalysts for refresh including AI, and we expect the print market to decline low single digits. We expect revenue for both personal systems and print to perform at least in line with the respective market.

    展望 25 財年,我們認為在包括人工智慧在內的多種更新催化劑的推動下,PC 市場的成長速度將快於 24 財年,我們預計印刷市場將出現低個位數下滑。我們預期個人系統和列印的收入至少與各自的市場表現一致。

  • We have significant opportunities to accelerate in our key growth areas, especially in commercial, where the market is growing faster than consumer. We also remain committed to returning approximately 100% of free cash flow over time, unless opportunities with a higher return on investment arise, and as long as our gross leverage ratio remains under 2 times EBITDA. We are confident our strategic focus and operational capabilities will enable us to deliver solid growth in fiscal year '25 across revenue, non-GAAP earnings and EPS and free cash flow.

    我們在關鍵成長領域擁有加速發展的重大機會,特別是在商業領域,市場成長速度快於消費者。我們也仍然致力於隨著時間的推移返還約 100% 的自由現金流,除非出現更高投資回報的機會,並且只要我們的總槓桿率保持在 EBITDA 的 2 倍以下。我們相信,我們的策略重點和營運能力將使我們能夠在 25 財年實現收入、非 GAAP 收益、每股盈餘和自由現金流方面的穩健成長。

  • I will pause here, and turn it over to Karen.

    我會在這裡暫停,然後將其交給凱倫。

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Enrique, and good afternoon everyone. We delivered solid financial results in Q4 with growth across both personal systems and print, driving a year over year increase in revenue for the second quarter in a row.

    謝謝你,恩里克,大家下午好。我們在第四季度取得了穩健的財務業績,個人系統和列印業務均實現成長,推動了第二季營收的年成長。

  • We grew non-GAAP EPS year-over-year and delivered strong free cash flow in the quarter, solidly within our full year guidance range, and as committed, we returned nearly 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the full fiscal year.

    我們的非公認會計原則每股收益同比增長,並在本季度提供了強勁的自由現金流,完全在我們的全年指導範圍內,並且按照承諾,我們在整個財年向股東返還了近100%的自由現金流。

  • Taking a closer look at the details of the quarter, net revenue was up 2% nominally and in constant currency. In fact, we grew in constant currency across all regions with Americas and EMEA growing 2%, and APJ growing 3%. Gross margin was 21.4% flat year-over-year as we offset rising commodity costs with pricing and cost actions.

    仔細觀察本季的細節,以固定匯率計算,淨收入名義上成長了 2%。事實上,以固定匯率計算,我們在所有地區都實現了成長,其中美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長了 2%,亞太及日本地區成長了 3%。由於我們透過定價和成本行動抵消了不斷上漲的商品成本,毛利率比去年同期持平 21.4%。

  • Non-GAAP operating expenses reflect continued investment in key strategic initiatives, offset in part by cost reductions including the acceleration of future ready cost savings. All in non-GAAP operating profit was $1.2 billion in line with our expectations. Below the out profit line non-GAAP net [OINE] was down year over year with lower currency related losses and reduced levels of short term financing activity.

    非公認會計準則營運費用反映了對關鍵策略措施的持續投資,部分被成本削減所抵消,包括加速未來準備成本節約。全部非 GAAP 營業利潤為 12 億美元,符合我們的預期。低於利潤線的非公認會計準則淨額 [OINE] 年比下降,原因是貨幣相關損失減少以及短期融資活動水準減少。

  • Finally, with a diluted share count of approximately 970 million shares, our non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share was $0.93 a year over year increase of $0.03.

    最後,稀釋後的股票數量約為 9.7 億股,我們的非 GAAP 稀釋後每股淨利為 0.93 美元,年增 0.03 美元。

  • Now let's turn to segment performance. Personal systems revenue was up 2% nominally and 3% in constant currency with higher commercial volumes and increased ASPs as we continue to adjust pricing where possible to mitigate increased component costs.

    現在讓我們轉向分段性能。隨著我們繼續盡可能調整定價以減輕組件成本的增加,個人系統收入名義上增長了 2%,按固定匯率計算增長了 3%,商業銷量增加,平均售價增加。

  • We outperformed the market and commercial with total units up 1% year-over-year and we continue to see progress in key growth areas particularly in hybrid systems that delivered strong growth for the second straight quarter.

    我們的表現優於市場和商業,總單位年增 1%,我們繼續看到關鍵成長領域的進展,特別是混合動力系統,連續第二季實現強勁成長。

  • Drilling more into the details, commercial revenue was up 5% on 4% unit growth with improved pricing and favorable mix. We increased our market share with gains in high value commercial premium. In fact, our gains in commercial more than offset continued market softness in consumer, where revenue is down 4% with units down 3%, particularly in China and as expected.

    更深入研究細節,隨著定價的改善和有利的產品組合,商業收入增加了 5%,單位數量增加了 4%。我們透過高價值商業保費的成長提高了市場佔有率。事實上,我們在商業領域的收益足以抵消消費者市場持續疲軟的影響,其中收入下降了 4%,銷量下降了 3%,特別是在中國,這符合預期。

  • Our PS operating margins were a little lower than expected, reflecting the headwinds from higher commodity costs and continued investment in strategic initiatives, not fully offset by repricing efforts and future ready savings. In print, our results reflected our focus on execution in a market that is showing signs of stabilization.

    我們的 PS 營業利潤率略低於預期,反映了商品成本上漲和策略性舉措持續投資帶來的不利因素,但重新定價工作和未來準備節省並未完全抵消這些不利因素。在印刷版中,我們的結果反映了我們對顯示穩定跡象的市場執行力的關注。

  • Total print revenue increased 1% on a reported basis and 2% in constant currency, driven by supplies and key growth areas. Momentum and industrial graphics continued with growth in hardware, supplies and services.

    在供應和關鍵成長領域的推動下,印刷總收入在報告基礎上成長了 1%,以固定匯率計算成長了 2%。隨著硬體、供應品和服務的成長,工業圖形的發展勢頭仍在繼續。

  • We also saw double digit growth in consumer subscriptions revenue. By customer segment, consumer grew 3% year over year on 10% unit growth with share gains across all categories. In commercial, while revenue declined 1% in the competitive pricing environment. Units increased 9% with share gains across all markets except China, as we purposely focused on profitable long term unit growth.

    我們也看到消費者訂閱收入達到兩位數成長。以客戶細分來看,消費者年增 3%,單位數量增加 10%,所有類別的份額均成長。在商業方面,在競爭激烈的定價環境下,收入下降了 1%。由於我們刻意關注獲利的長期單位成長,單位數量增加了 9%,除中國外的所有市場的份額均有所增加。

  • Print operating margin of 19.6% was not only up year over year but above the high end of our range, with favorable mix and savings from our accelerated future ready cost actions. Looking holistically at our future ready cost plans, we are pleased with the progress we made in the quarter to accelerate our actions.

    19.6% 的印刷營業利潤率不僅同比增長,而且高於我們範圍的高端,這得益於我們加速的未來就緒成本行動帶來的有利組合和節省。全面審視我們未來的成本計劃,我們對本季在加快行動方面的進展感到高興。

  • And at this point, our ahead of the plans we initially laid out. In fact, with one year to go on our three year plan, we have driven roughly 80% of our total program goal of $1.6 billion of annualized gross run rate savings. As part of future ready, we have modernized our data infrastructure across the company, reduce platforms and personal systems by over one-third, allowing for reduced commodity complexity and driven further portfolio and resource reductions across core print.

    在這一點上,我們提前了我們最初制定的計劃。事實上,在我們的三年計畫還剩一年的時間裡,我們已經實現了計畫總目標的大約 80%,即年化毛運行率節省 16 億美元。作為面向未來的準備的一部分,我們對整個公司的數據基礎設施進行了現代化改造,將平台和個人系統減少了三分之一以上,從而降低了商品的複雜性,並推動了整個核心印刷的產品組合和資源的進一步減少。

  • We look forward to completing these plans to drive further effectiveness and efficiency across the company in the next year. Now let me move to cash flow and capital allocation.

    我們期待完成這些計劃,以在明年提高整個公司的有效性和效率。現在讓我談談現金流和資本配置。

  • We generated more than $1.6 billion in cash from operations and $1.5 billion in free cash flow, and free cash flow for the fiscal year was $3.3 billion, solidly within the guidance range we set at the beginning of the year. We continue to improve our cash conversion cycle this quarter, driving days payable up as a result of improving payment terms and higher manufacturing activity, and inventory days down with lower strategic by activity.

    我們從營運中產生了超過 16 億美元的現金,以及 15 億美元的自由現金流,本財年的自由現金流為 33 億美元,完全在我們年初設定的指導範圍內。本季我們持續改善現金週轉週期,由於改善付款條件和增加製造活動,推動應付天數增加,並因策略活動減少而減少庫存天數。

  • Lastly, we returned approximately $1.2 billion to shareholders through both share repurchase and dividends, and finished the quarter within our target leverage range. For the year, we returned close to $3.2 billion to shareholders, nearly 100% of our free cash flow.

    最後,我們透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了約 12 億美元,並在我們的目標槓桿範圍內結束了本季。今年,我們向股東返還了近 32 億美元,幾乎是我們自由現金流的 100%。

  • Our Q4 and FY24 results reflect the consistent progress we are making to drive profitable growth and maintain our leadership position in a steadily improving market. And we intend to continue this momentum into next year as we drive further growth and investment in strategic areas, including the future of work.

    我們第四季和 2024 財年的業績反映了我們在推動獲利成長並在穩定改善的市場中保持領先地位方面所取得的持續進展。我們打算將這一勢頭延續到明年,推動包括未來工作在內的策略領域的進一步成長和投資。

  • As we look ahead in FY25 let me start with our segments. In personal systems, as Enrique said, we are aligned with industry experts projecting the PC market to increase mid-single-digits in 2025 with the commercial market growing faster than consumer.

    當我們展望 2025 財年時,讓我從我們的細分市場開始。正如 Enrique 所說,在個人系統方面,我們與產業專家一致預測 PC 市場將在 2025 年實現中個位數成長,其中商業市場成長速度快於消費市場。

  • We expect our fiscal year '25 revenue to grow at least in line with the market, and to be stronger in the second half of the year driven by normal seasonality, timing of the Windows 11 refresh and increased penetration of AI PCs.

    我們預計 25 財年的營收成長至少與市場一致,在正常季節性、Windows 11 更新時機和人工智慧 PC 滲透率提高的推動下,下半年營收將更加強勁。

  • At this point, we anticipate AI PCs will make up approximately 25% of our PC unit shipments in FY25. On operating margins, we expect to be in the upper half of our 5% to 7% range for the year but to remain the lower half in Q1, given continued pressure on our commodity costs.

    目前,我們預計 AI PC 將佔 25 財年 PC 出貨量的約 25%。就營業利潤率而言,我們預計今年將處於 5% 至 7% 範圍的上半部分,但鑑於我們的商品成本持續面臨壓力,第一季將保持在下半部分。

  • And while we have put in place cost reduction and pricing actions to offset these pressures, they will take time, and will ramp through the year, leading to stronger margins expected in the second half. In print, we expect to perform at least in line with the overall market.

    儘管我們已經採取了降低成本和定價措施來抵消這些壓力,但這些措施需要時間,並且會在全年不斷增加,預計下半年的利潤率會更高。在印刷方面,我們預期表現至少與整體市場一致。

  • And as Enrique said, we are aligned with industry experts projecting the overall market to decrease low-single-digits in 2025. We expect the pricing environment to stabilize, and our ASPs to benefit from our focus on driving profitable share gains in strategic categories. Particularly in office, we see the opportunity to capture share in the contractual segment where we are under index.

    正如恩里克所說,我們與行業專家一致預測,到2025 年,整個市場將出現低個位數下降。類別的獲利份額成長。特別是在辦公室,我們看到了在我們指數下的合約細分市場中獲取份額的機會。

  • We expect supplies revenue to decline low-to-mid single digits in FY25 and constant currency consistent with our long term outlook. And we expect our operating margin to continue to be near the top of our 16% to 19% long term range, including in Q1 as we continue to exercise disciplined cost management and execute on our future ready plans. Beyond the segment, we expect corporate other to be relatively flat year over year at approximately $1 billion.

    我們預計 25 財年供應收入將下降個位數,且貨幣不變,這與我們的長期前景一致。我們預計我們的營業利潤率將繼續接近 16% 至 19% 長期範圍的頂部,包括第一季度,因為我們將繼續實施嚴格的成本管理並執行我們未來的準備計劃。除了該細分市場之外,我們預計其他企業的銷售額將比去年同期相對持平,約 10 億美元。

  • Keep in mind that, due to the timing of our stock compensation expense, we expect approximately one-third of our annual corporate other expense in Q1. With all of this, we expect FY25 non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $3.45 to $3.75, and FY25 GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $3.06 to $3.36.

    請記住,由於我們的股票補償費用的時間安排,我們預計第一季將占公司年度其他費用的約三分之一。考慮到所有這些,我們預計 25 財年非 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤將在 3.45 美元至 3.75 美元之間,25 財年 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤將在 3.06 美元至 3.36 美元之間。

  • For Q1, we expect first quarter non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $0.70 to $0.76, and first quarter GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $0.57 to $0.63. Overall, we expect EPS to be stronger in the second half with sequential improvements in each quarter.

    對於第一季度,我們預計第一季非 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤將在 0.70 美元至 0.76 美元之間,第一季 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤將在 0.57 美元至 0.63 美元之間。整體而言,我們預計下半年每股盈餘將更加強勁,每季都會持續改善。

  • On FY25 free cash flow, we expect to deliver between $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion with growth in line with earnings. As typical, we expect the second half to be stronger than the first, consistent with our net earnings and recognizing that our first quarter is typically lower, given the timing of our prior year incentive comp payment.

    就 25 財年自由現金流而言,我們預計將實現 32 億至 36 億美元的成長,成長與收益相符。通常,我們預計下半年將強於上半年,這與我們的淨利潤一致,並認識到考慮到我們上一年激勵補償支付的時間,我們第一季的業績通常較低。

  • On capital allocation, we remain committed to returning approximately 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders over time, as long as our gross leverage ratio remains under 2 times and there aren't better return opportunities. In closing, we are excited for our future, and also pleased to announce today that we are raising our annual dividend by 5% to $1.16 per share.

    在資本配置方面,只要我們的總槓桿率保持在2倍以下並且沒有更好的回報機會,我們仍然致力於隨著時間的推移將大約100%的自由現金流返還給股東。最後,我們對我們的未來感到興奮,今天也很高興地宣布,我們將把年度股息提高 5% 至每股 1.16 美元。

  • This is the ninth consecutive annual increase, since our separation in 2015 and reflects the confidence we and our Board have in our long-term outlook ahead. With that, I would like to hand it back to the operator, and open the call for your questions.

    這是自 2015 年分拆以來連續第九年成長,反映了我們和董事會對未來長期前景的信心。至此,我想將其交還給接線員,並打開電話詢問您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

    萬西·莫漢,美國銀行。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

    Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you so much. You typically your first quarter EPS is about 25% of the full year. This year, you're guiding to EPS that's closer to 20%. Can you talk about some of the puts and takes over there? I know you called out the timing of stock comp, but is there anything else that's driving a delta over there as well, and I will follow up?

    是的,非常感謝。通常,第一季每股收益約為全年的 25%。今年,您的每股盈餘預期接近 20%。您能談談那裡的一些看跌和接管嗎?我知道你提到了股票補償的時機,但是還有其他什麼因素也推動了三角洲的成長嗎?

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, thanks for the question, Wamsi. In our Q1 EPS is typically down sequentially. So keep in mind, we have seasonal volume declines in the first quarter. And yes, we do have a sequential increase in corporate other expense in the quarter. And that's, really driven by the timing of our stock compensation expense. I said we expect roughly one-third of it to hit in Q1.

    是的,謝謝你的提問,瓦姆西。在我們的第一季度,每股收益通常會連續下降。因此請記住,第一季的銷量出現季節性下降。是的,我們本季的公司其他費用確實有所增加。這實際上是由我們的股票補償費用的時間決定的。我說過我們預計大約三分之一會在第一季出現。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

    Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks Karen. I guess my follow up is really around your future ready transformation plan, where you've done a lot of cost optimization already. But when we look at the EPS guide for next year, presumably most of that's really coming from share buybacks, which would mean, that your organic operating income is roughly flat.

    好的,謝謝凱倫。我想我的後續行動實際上是圍繞著您未來的轉型計劃進行的,您已經做了很多成本優化。但當我們查看明年的每股盈餘指南時,想必其中大部分實際上來自股票回購,這意味著您的有機營業收入大致相當。

  • Despite all these cost optimizations, why should we not see a higher improvement in free cash flow next year, especially as you're starting to expect PCs to grow and you're also lapping some of these restructuring charge, the magnitude at least is going down on restructuring charges as well. So why isn't free cash flow, somewhat materially higher range, closer to a couple of years ago? Thank you so much.

    儘管進行了所有這些成本優化,為什麼我們不能看到明年自由現金流的更高改善,特別是當你開始預計個人電腦將增長並且你還需要支付其中一些重組費用時,其幅度至少正在增加重組費用也下調。那麼,為什麼自由現金流(實質上更高的範圍)沒有接近幾年前呢?太感謝了。

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, thanks for the question. You know, we're pleased with the free cash flow we delivered this fiscal year, and we do expect it to continue to grow roughly in line with earnings. We intend to drive continued improvement and working capital and free cash flow, just as we have in the past few years. We expect that to continue.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。你知道,我們對本財年提供的自由現金流感到滿意,我們確實預計它將繼續與收益大致一致地增長。正如過去幾年一樣,我們打算推動持續改善、營運資本和自由現金流。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

  • And as we enter the third year of our future ready cost plan, we expect to spend a little less on restructuring charges, but we will offset with some slightly higher capital expenditures to support our growth plans. But again, we expect free cash flow to grow roughly in line with earnings.

    隨著我們進入未來就緒成本計劃的第三年,我們預計重組費用的支出會減少一些,但我們將用一些略高的資本支出來抵消,以支持我們的成長計劃。但我們再次預期自由現金流將與獲利大致同步成長。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And also another comment about your first observation, when we look at EPS growth year on year is driven both by share buybacks, but we are also expecting growth of operating profit, and this is really what is supporting the midpoint of the guide.

    還有關於您的第一個觀察結果的另一條評論,當我們看到每股收益同比增長是由股票回購推動的,但我們也預計營業利潤的增長,這確實是支撐指南中點的因素。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

    Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you so much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

    艾瑞克‧伍德林,摩根士丹利。

  • Eric Woodring - Analyst

    Eric Woodring - Analyst

  • Awesome. Thanks for taking my question guys. You know, Enrique or Karen, I guess maybe, Karen this one would be for you. Is you've done 19% print operating margins effectively three years in a row now, all in years in which revenue print revenue has been down low-to-mid single digits. So maybe my question is why is 16% to 19%, the correct range and why wouldn't it be higher or has there been a degree of over earning that some point should normalize in the future? I'm just trying to understand the relative outperformance versus the target? And then I have a follow up. Thanks.

    驚人的。謝謝你們回答我的問題。你知道,恩里克或凱倫,我想凱倫這可能適合你。您是否已連續三年有效實現 19% 的印刷營業利潤,而在這些年裡,印刷收入一直下降到低個位數。所以也許我的問題是為什麼 16% 到 19% 是正確的範圍,為什麼它不能更高,或者是否存在一定程度的超額收入,未來某個點應該正常化?我只是想了解相對於目標的相對錶現?然後我有一個後續行動。謝謝。

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, thanks for the question. You know, you've seen us operate at this high end of the range both in Q4 and the full year, and we do expect that to continue in FY25. We are focused on protecting our profitability and print. We've been reducing unprofitable units through our shift to big tank. We've also been increasing the lifetime customer profitability with growth in our subscription business, and we're gaining share in some of the higher value categories in office.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。您知道,您已經看到我們在第四季度和全年都在這個範圍的高端運營,我們確實預計這種情況將在 2025 財年繼續下去。我們專注於保護我們的盈利能力和印刷品。透過轉向大罐,我們一直在減少無利可圖的單位。隨著訂閱業務的成長,我們也一直在提高終身客戶獲利能力,並且我們正在辦公室的一些高價值類別中獲得份額。

  • You know, as we think about the guide, the range going forward, we're maintaining the lower end of the range just so we can have flexibility to lean in where we find opportunity. But we're also going to remain cognizant of the dynamic market conditions that we've seen in recent years.

    你知道,當我們考慮指南和未來的範圍時,我們維持範圍的下限,這樣我們就可以靈活地在發現機會的地方傾斜。但我們也將繼續認識到近年來我們看到的動態市場狀況。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I think this is very consistent with previous conversations. As Karen just said, we want to have flexibility to lean in case we see opportunity to place more positive hardware units. And if we do see the opportunity, we're going to have that and this may put some pressure on the margin a specific quarter, but nothing has changed from previous conversations.

    而且我認為這與之前的談話非常一致。正如凱倫剛才所說,我們希望能夠靈活地進行傾斜,以防我們看到有機會放置更多積極的硬體單元。如果我們確實看到了機會,我們就會擁有這個機會,這可能會給特定季度的利潤率帶來一些壓力,但與先前的對話相比沒有任何變化。

  • Eric Woodring - Analyst

    Eric Woodring - Analyst

  • Right. Okay. Very fair. Thank you guys. And then my follow up, Enrique after a strong 4Q in which you gain share in both print and PCs. Can you maybe just help us understand maybe why you don't expect to gain share next year talking about growing in line with the market? Is there any kind of competitive pressures that are rising maybe from, for example, where the yen is today or are you just trying to be a bit more conservative in setting expectations so early in the year? And that's it for me. Thanks so much.

    正確的。好的。非常公平。謝謝你們。然後是我的後續行動,恩里克在強勁的第四季度之後,在印刷和個人電腦上都獲得了份額。您能否幫助我們理解為什麼您不希望明年獲得與市場同步成長的份額?是否存在某種競爭壓力正在上升,例如,日圓目前的走勢,或者您只是想在今年年初設定預期時更加保守一些?對我來說就是這樣。非常感謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say it's more the latter Eric, we want to be conservative in the assumptions. Of course, our goal is going to be to grow share. But as we always say, grow share in profitable categories, our goal is not to grow share for the sake of growing share. It's really about focusing on those areas where we see opportunity to do it, to do it in a profitable way. This year, we have grown sharing PCs, especially in commercial. And as we have said during the prepared remarks, commercial is going to continue to be our priority.

    我想說的是後者,埃里克,我們希望在假設上保持保守。當然,我們的目標是增加份額。但正如我們常說的,增加獲利類別的份額,我們的目標不是為了增加份額而增加份額。這實際上是專注於那些我們認為有機會去做的領域,以有利可圖的方式去做。今年,我們增加了共享電腦,尤其是商業共享電腦。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說,商業將繼續是我們的首要任務。

  • Eric Woodring - Analyst

    Eric Woodring - Analyst

  • Thank you, guys.

    謝謝你們,夥計們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.

    阿米特·達裡亞納尼 (Amit Daryanani),Evercore ISI。

  • Irvin Liu - Analyst

    Irvin Liu - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. This is Irvin Liu on for Amit. I have one in a follow up as well. So if I heard correctly, AI PC units were 15% of shipments during your fiscal Q4, and expected to expand to 25% next year. As this mix expands, what sort of implications will this have for AI PCs have for ASPs and your PS margins?

    你好,謝謝。我是歐文·劉 (Irvin Liu) 替阿米特 (Amit) 發言。我也有一個後續行動。因此,如果我沒聽錯的話,人工智慧 PC 設備佔第四財季出貨量的 15%,預計明年將擴大到 25%。隨著這種組合的擴大,這會對人工智慧 PC 的 ASP 和 PS 利潤率產生什麼樣的影響?

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thank you. We have not changed our view on the impact that the AI PCs is going to are going to have. And current results support the assumptions that we have seen. The AI PCs are going to drive an improvement of average selling price.

    是的,謝謝。我們對人工智慧電腦將產生的影響的看法沒有改變。目前的結果支持我們所看到的假設。人工智慧電腦將推動平均售價的提高。

  • What we have been saying until now when we confirm is [three] years from now, we expect them to be between 40%, 60% of the mix and have around between a 5% and a 10% impact on the overall category. That's the direction that we are taking on the current shipments and pricing supports what we have seen until now.

    到目前為止,當我們確認從現在開始的 [三年] 後,我們預計它們將佔組合的 40% 到 60% 之間,並對整個類別產生大約 5% 到 10% 的影響。這就是我們目前出貨量的方向,並且定價支持我們迄今為止所看到的情況。

  • Irvin Liu - Analyst

    Irvin Liu - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. And then for my follow up. With the upcoming change in administration and potential for tariffs, can you just talk about how you are positioned to mitigate any potential impacts to your supply chain?

    知道了。謝謝。然後是我的後續行動。隨著即將到來的管理變化和關稅的可能性,您能否談談您如何定位以減輕對供應鏈的任何潛在影響?

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, perfect. Thank you. First let me say that we are really willing to collaborate with the new administration to reach the best solution for both our customers and our shareholders. If you think about what we have been talking about in the last few years, we have done a lot of work to make our supply chain footprint more resilient.

    是的,完美。謝謝。首先我要說的是,我們非常願意與新政府合作,為我們的客戶和股東找到最佳解決方案。如果你想想我們過去幾年一直在談論的事情,我們已經做了很多工作來使我們的供應鏈足跡更具彈性。

  • And we have been building factories in different parts of the world to be able to respond to changes in the geopolitical environment. So today, we are in a much stronger position than we were three years ago and we think that compared to other companies in our industry, we are in a strong position. At this point, it's hard to know what exactly the new tariffs are going to be.

    我們一直在世界不同地區建造工廠,以便能夠應對地緣政治環境的變化。所以今天,我們的地位比三年前要強大得多,我們認為與我們行業的其他公司相比,我們處於有利的地位。目前,很難知道新關稅到底是什麼。

  • What I can say is we have a strong team that knows how to manage this type of environment. And as we know what the final policies will be, we will be the best plan for the company.

    我可以說的是,我們擁有一支強大的團隊,知道如何管理此類環境。由於我們知道最終的政策是什麼,我們將是對公司最好的計劃。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein.

    東尼薩科納吉、伯恩斯坦。

  • Toni Sacconaghi - Analyst

    Toni Sacconaghi - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you. I just wanted to follow up on the last question first. In my understanding is outside of in printer cartridges, essentially everything HP makes, is outside of the country and imported. So, if we did have a tariff on all incoming goods, which is sort of the current statement from the administration, how does, HP respond to that?

    是的,謝謝。我只想先跟進最後一個問題。據我了解,印表機墨盒是在印表機墨盒之外的,基本上惠普生產的所有產品都是在國外進口的。那麼,如果我們確實對所有進貨徵收關稅(這類似於政府目前的聲明),惠普將如何回應?

  • I understand you may have less China exposure, but, you're still making essentially all of your products aside from Ink cartridges, I believe outside the US. So how would you address a global tariff on imported goods specifically?

    我知道你們在中國的業務可能較少,但是,除了墨盒之外,你們基本上仍在生產所有產品,我相信是在美國以外的地方。那麼,您將如何具體解決進口商品的全球關稅問題呢?

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, as we have said, Toni at this point is we don't want to speculate on what the final tariff are going to be. We will respond to whatever the final decisions are and actively manage our supply chain to do that. You're correct. We have a small percentage of production today in the US, is a bit broader than just the Ink cartridges. But as you said, we produce most of our products through the years.

    是的,正如我們所說,托尼目前不想猜測最終關稅是多少。無論最終決定是什麼,我們都會做出回應,並積極管理我們的供應鏈來做到這一點。你是對的。今天,我們在美國的生產只佔一小部分,範圍比墨盒要廣泛一些。但正如您所說,我們多年來生產大部分產品。

  • Toni Sacconaghi - Analyst

    Toni Sacconaghi - Analyst

  • Okay. And if I could follow up, maybe, you could just clarify, what's your Mexico exposure, because there actually has been a policy statement on that? So what is your Mexico exposure? And then as my follow up, Enrique or Karen, as we look forward to next year, it sounds like you're expecting supplies to decline 3%, 4% low single digits, but potentially the printing business to grow, which would mean that hardware would be positive.

    好的。如果我可以跟進,也許,你可以澄清一下,你在墨西哥的風險敞口是多少,因為實際上已經有對此的政策聲明?那麼您在墨西哥的風險敞口是多少?然後,作為我的後續行動,Enrique 或 Karen,正如我們對明年的展望,聽起來您預計供應量將下降 3%、4%,低個位數,但印刷業務可能會增長,這意味著硬體將是積極的。

  • Why would that mix shift, not pressure margins, and what's the offset to keep margins at the high end of the range? Thank you.

    為什麼這種組合會發生變化,而不是對利潤率造成壓力?謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me take both questions. First of all, on Mexico, we don't disclose the specific percentage of products that we get from them. So I'll will defer the answer to that question. In terms of print, what we have said is, in fiscal year '25 we expect the market to decline, and this should be consistent to what you see also from the HP perspective.

    讓我回答這兩個問題。首先,在墨西哥,我們沒有透露我們從他們那裡獲得的產品的具體百分比。所以我會推遲回答這個問題。在印刷方面,我們已經說過,在 25 財年,我們預計市場將會下滑,這應該與您從惠普的角度看到的情況一致。

  • Our goal is to do at least as well as market, but we are going to see some pressure on revenue from the print perspective. And as you said, our guide, our expectation is that supplies consistently, with what we have been saying in the past will continue to decline low-to-mid single digits. So no change in our view on that.

    我們的目標是至少做得和市場一樣好,但從印刷的角度來看,我們將看到一些收入壓力。正如您所說,我們的指南,我們的期望是供應持續穩定,正如我們過去所說的那樣,供應量將繼續下降到中低個位數。所以我們對此的看法並沒有改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.

    薩米克‧查特吉,摩根大通。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I guess for the first one, if I can go to the outlook that you shared for the PC market, I think you said commercial in particular growing higher than mid-single-digit. I know that's sort of the consensus right now in the industry analyst but just curious how you thinking about that outcome, sort of playing out in terms of the confidence and enterprises, sort of refreshing ahead of that deadline in terms of Windows end of life.

    你好。感謝您提出我的問題。我想對於第一個,如果我能談談您對個人電腦市場的展望,我認為您說商業市場的成長速度將高於中個位數。我知道這是行業分析師目前的共識,但只是好奇您如何看待這個結果,在信心和企業方面發揮作用,在 Windows 生命週期結束的最後期限之前刷新。

  • But particularly given that we've all been a bit surprised that enterprises haven't refreshed as much this year. Are you thinking about sort of the validity of that growth expectation, as well as the likelihood that they don't really de prioritize when they're investing towards AI infrastructure, they don't end up de prioritizing PCs as a part of that spending sort of overall bucket that they're looking at a follow up as well. Thank you.

    但特別是考慮到我們都對企業今年沒有那麼多更新感到有點驚訝。你是否在考慮這種增長預期的有效性,以及他們在投資人工智能基礎設施時並沒有真正取消優先級的可能性,他們最終不會取消個人電腦的優先級作為支出的一部分他們也在考慮跟進的總體情況。謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So I think first of all, if we look at what has happened in Q4, we have seen revenue growth in the commercial space of 5%, and unit growth of 4%. So we are already at a fairly significant growth in the commercial PC space. And when we think about next year, first of all, we think that the fact that the window refresh has started in a slower way than previous transitions as we shared last quarter, just makes the opportunity in '25 bigger because there is a deadline in the fall next year where support cost for Windows 10 is going to significantly increase.

    是的。因此,我認為首先,如果我們看看第四季度發生的情況,我們會發現商業領域的收入增加了 5%,單位數量增加了 4%。因此,我們在商用 PC 領域已經取得了相當顯著的成長。當我們考慮明年時,首先,我們認為窗口刷新的開始速度比我們上個季度分享的之前的轉換要慢,這只會讓 25 年的機會更大,因為有一個最後期限明年秋季,Windows 10 的支援成本將大幅增加。

  • And therefore company will have a strong incentive to change. On top of that, we continue to have an installed base that needs to be refreshed, which has been driving the growth that we have seen in Q4. And we, the mix of AI PCs will continue to grow, which also is going to and create a tailwind for the business.

    因此,公司會有強烈的變革動力。最重要的是,我們的安裝基礎仍然需要更新,這一直推動我們在第四季度看到的成長。而我們,人工智慧電腦的組合將持續成長,這也將為業務創造順風。

  • But these are the key assumptions that we have. And on top of that, as we have done this year, we will continue to prioritize premium categories, but we have been growing share and this continues to be the goal for us as a company.

    但這些都是我們的關鍵假設。最重要的是,正如我們今年所做的那樣,我們將繼續優先考慮優質類別,但我們的份額一直在增長,這仍然是我們作為一家公司的目標。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Correct. And for my follow up, I mean, Karen, maybe this is for you. Just going back to Wamsi's earlier question the, what's driving the seasonality for earnings in one queue? Understand the sort of drivers that are impacting earnings. But are you expecting anything different from a typical seasonality when it comes to the revenue outcomes for the quarter as well, if you can just clarify that?

    正確的。對於我的後續行動,我的意思是,凱倫,也許這適合你。回到瓦姆西之前的問題,是什麼推動了一個隊列中收益的季節性?了解影響收入的驅動因素類型。但是,如果您能澄清一下,您是否期望本季的收入結果與典型的季節性有所不同?

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So for revenue, we're expecting growth both year over year in the quarter and for the full year at the total company level with strength and PS offsetting a likely decline in print. In terms of, just our ramp through the year on EPS, we said that we expect a stronger second half, and that, Q1 should be our lowest quarter with improvement throughout the year.

    是的。因此,就收入而言,我們預計本季和全年公司整體收入將同比增長,實力和 PS 抵消了印刷品可能下降的影響。就我們今年的每股盈餘成長而言,我們表示預計下半年會更加強勁,並且第一季應該是我們全年有所改善的最低季度。

  • And I would say the main drivers of that are more pronounced PS revenue seasonality tied to the PC recovery, along with the actions that we're taking to improve PS margins in the back half. And as we already mentioned, we can, we expect that step down in corporate other costs as we move past Q1. And I would say lastly, we're also expecting this higher penetration of AI PC models as we move through the year. So those along with our growth segments really drive an improvement to our margin profile.

    我想說,其主要驅動因素是與 PC 復甦相關的更明顯的 PS 收入季節性,以及我們為提高下半年 PS 利潤率而採取的行動。正如我們已經提到的,我們可以預計,隨著第一季的過去,企業的其他成本將會下降。最後我想說,隨著這一年的推移,我們也預期人工智慧 PC 型號的滲透率會更高。因此,這些與我們的成長部門一起確實推動了我們利潤狀況的改善。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And let me have a comment on course, as we shared in the prepared remarks, we have seen pressure from commodity costs in Q4. We expect that this pressure will continue in Q1, but that through the year to repricing and through additional cost that we are actions that we are taking to qualify lower cost components to concentrate volumes in a few specific SKUs. We will be able to compensate for that. And this also creates a an improvement quarter on quarter, that is what is supporting the guide.

    讓我對課程發表評論,正如我們在準備好的評論中所分享的那樣,我們在第四季度看到了大宗商品成本的壓力。我們預計這種壓力將在第一季持續存在,但在全年的重新定價和額外成本中,我們正在採取行動來限定低成本組件,以將產量集中在幾個特定的 SKU 中。我們將能夠彌補這一點。這也創造了季度環比的改善,這就是支持該指南的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Asiya Merchant, Citi.

    阿西亞商人,花旗銀行。

  • Asiya Merchant - Analyst

    Asiya Merchant - Analyst

  • Hey, thank you for taking my question. If I could just double click on your growth services, I think it was 20% and I believe you said it grew mid-single digits. How should we think about, the expectations for these growth businesses to perform into next year. What are some of the drivers that would potentially accelerate growth here? Because I think at the analyst event, you guys did share higher growth expectations, and if you could, talk about some of the drivers for that growth, for the high -- for the growth business? Thank you.

    嘿,謝謝你回答我的問題。如果我雙擊你們的成長服務,我認為成長了 20%,而且我相信你說它成長了中個位數。我們應該如何思考這些成長型業務明年表現的預期。有哪些可能加速這裡成長的驅動因素?因為我認為在分析師活動中,你們確實分享了更高的成長預期,如果可以的話,請談談成長的一些驅動因素,對於高成長業務?謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, thank you. So it's probably worth that. We talk about a few of them. So to explain kind of what are the expectations that we have for next year. But the overall is that they will continue to grow faster than the overall company, which is why for us are very important going forward.

    是的,謝謝。所以這可能是值得的。我們討論其中的一些。那麼解釋一下我們對明年的期望是什麼。但總體而言,他們的成長速度將繼續快於整個公司,這就是為什麼對我們來說,未來的發展非常重要。

  • If we think for example, about growth that we expect in consumer services, we expect the number of subscribers to continue to grow. And also, we are expanding the portfolio of services that we offer. During this year, we offer the paper as a service program, we offer the all in program, and we will see the adoption of these two programs to continue to increase.

    例如,如果我們考慮消費者服務的預期成長,我們預期訂戶數量將持續成長。此外,我們正在擴大我們提供的服務組合。今年,我們提供論文即服務計劃,我們提供全包計劃,我們將看到這兩個計劃的採用率繼續增加。

  • We also have seen solid growth especially in the second half on our workforce solutions portfolio, but especially in the print as a service device, as a service and conference room as a service, and we expect these businesses to continue their growth next year. We have a strong second half on hybrid systems. But as the market, as the commercial market recovers, we see growth in that category and we expect it to continue to grow in '25.

    我們也看到了穩健的成長,特別是在下半年,我們的勞動力解決方案組合,特別是在列印即服務設備、服務和會議室即服務方面,我們預計這些業務明年將繼續成長。我們下半年在混合動力系統方面表現強勁。但隨著市場、商業市場的復甦,我們看到該類別的成長,並預計它將在 25 年繼續成長。

  • So across most of them, we see opportunities to grow driven by the market and also driven by the innovation that we are going to continue to bring to market across many categories. This is why for us going forward, we see this strong opportunity in commercial in redefining the future of work, which is basically integrating AI into our full portfolio and allowing customers from an enterprise perspective to drive productivity and from an employee perspective to increase the fulfillment that they get with the activities they do. And this is going to be more and more the overall focus of the company.

    因此,在大多數產品中,我們看到了由市場驅動的成長機會,以及我們將繼續在許多類別的市場上推出的創新的驅動。這就是為什麼對我們來說,展望未來,我們看到了商業領域重新定義工作未來的巨大機會,這基本上是將人工智慧整合到我們的完整產品組合中,讓客戶從企業角度提高生產力,從員工角度提高成就感他們透過他們所做的活動所得到的。這將越來越成為公司的整體重點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

    克里斯·桑卡爾,TD·考恩。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Yeah. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have two of them. First one, Enrique. Thanks for your call on next year and the AI PCs and all the good stuff. I'm curious what is exactly is the definition of AI PC? Does it have a higher silicon content like NPU CPU memory? How do you describe AI PC, Because it's 15% of last quarter mix? And if there is a higher silicon content, what is the bomb cost impact to margins? And then I had a follow up.

    是的。你好。感謝您提出我的問題。我有兩個。第一個,恩里克。感謝您對明年的來電以及人工智慧電腦和所有好東西。我很好奇AI PC的定義到底是什麼?是不是像NPU CPU記憶體那樣矽含量較高?您如何描述 AI PC,因為它佔上季組合的 15%?如果矽含量較高,炸彈成本對利潤率有何影響?然後我進行了跟進。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So when we talk about the 15% we use the official definition that AI PC, is using, which are PCs that have an NPU built and this is what we are using for 15% to be consistent with the rest of the industry. Our focus really is more in what we call next generation AI PCs that are defined by first having a stronger and more powerful NPU of above 40 TOPS.

    因此,當我們談論 15% 時,我們使用 AI PC 正在使用的官方定義,即內建 NPU 的 PC,這就是我們對 15% 使用的定義,以便與行業其他產品保持一致。我們的重點確實更多地放在我們所說的下一代 AI PC 上,其定義是首先擁有 40 TOPS 以上的更強大的 NPU。

  • Second of being able to run what we call our AI companion, which is our own model designed to accelerate productivity in the office when running at the edge. And third, especially in the commercial space PC that have enhanced security capabilities because of having the MPU and some of the software and models that we are building into them.

    其次,能夠運行我們所謂的人工智慧伴侶,這是我們自己的模型,旨在在邊緣運行時提高辦公室的生產力。第三,特別是在商業空間 PC 中,由於擁有 MPU 以及我們正在建立的一些軟體和模型,它們具有增強的安全功能。

  • This next gen AI PCs, we just started to ship during Q4. So the impact they have had this year is limited. But what has made them very exciting, exciting is we have been able to give them to software companies to start developing new solutions. We displayed some of them in our Imagine event and the impact in productivity that they are going to have is very significant.

    我們在第四季剛開始出貨這種下一代人工智慧電腦。因此,他們今年產生的影響是有限的。但讓他們非常興奮的是,我們能夠將它們提供給軟體公司來開始開發新的解決方案。我們在 Imagine 活動中展示了其中的一些產品,它們對生產力的影響非常重大。

  • So if you ask me how confident I am about the impact the AI PCs are going to have is even more than before, because I have seen them in action, I see the opportunity that they bring, and I think it's going to be a very, very strong part of our portfolio in the coming years.

    因此,如果你問我對人工智慧個人電腦將產生的影響有多大信心,我甚至比以前更有信心,因為我看到了它們的實際應用,我看到了它們帶來的機會,我認為這將是一個非常好的機會。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Got it very helpful. Thanks for that, Enrique for the clarification too. And one other quick follow up, you mentioned that commodity cost pressure is going to be there into the early part of next year. Typically, what is the lag effect you see? Because the reason I'm asking is that if you look at most forecast, Memory RAM, which is a big part of your commodity cost is expected to decline in calendar Q1. If that is true, when would you see the benefit of that? Thank you.

    得到它非常有幫助。也感謝恩里克的澄清。另一個快速跟進,您提到大宗商品成本壓力將持續到明年初。通常,您看到的滯後效應是什麼?因為我問的原因是,如果您查看大多數預測,那麼佔商品成本很大一部分的記憶體 RAM 預計將在第一季下降。如果這是真的,您什麼時候會看到這樣做的好處?謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, we expect to continue to see pressure from commodity cost through the first half of our fiscal year. So our Q calendar Q4 and calendar Q1 and then this to be mitigated in the second half of the year, especially because of all the work that we are doing first on repricing, we did repricing in Q4. We will continue to do that but there is always a difference in time between cost increases and time and price increases.

    是的,我們預計整個財年上半年將繼續面臨商品成本的壓力。因此,我們的 Q 日曆 Q4 和日曆 Q1,然後這種情況將在下半年得到緩解,特別是因為我們首先在重新定價方面所做的所有工作,我們在第四季度進行了重新定價。我們將繼續這樣做,但成本增加與時間和價格上漲之間總是存在時間差異。

  • But over time this gets compensated. And also, as I mentioned before, the work that we're doing from a cost perspective to qualify lower cost components to integrate or to in to increase the volume on some specific SKU simplify what simplifying our offering. So we can buy more of the of a single component. The two, the three actions should help us to mitigate the impact in the second half of our fiscal year.

    但隨著時間的推移,這會得到補償。而且,正如我之前提到的,我們從成本角度所做的工作是為了整合較低成本的元件,或為了增加某些特定 SKU 的數量,從而簡化我們的產品。因此我們可以購買更多的單一組件。這兩、三項行動應該有助於我們減輕本財年下半年的影響。

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • And I would just add Krish, that our strategic buys helped us when commodity cost pressures first started. And now we're working on repricing and cost down actions that just take time to take hold.

    我想補充一點,克里什,當大宗商品成本壓力首次出現時,我們的策略性購買對我們有所幫助。現在我們正在致力於重新定價和降低成本的行動,這些行動只是需要時間才能見效。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Vogt, UBS.

    大衛‧沃格特,瑞銀集團。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks guys for taking my questions. The first one is maybe Enrique on print. I just want to go back to the competitive landscape because the yen has been such a headwind for so long. You know, it doesn't sound like you were that concerned or that impacted this quarter, kind of, what's going on in that market and how does that play out into fiscal '25?

    偉大的。謝謝你們回答我的問題。第一個可能是印刷版的恩里克。我只想回到競爭格局,因為日圓長期以來一直是不利因素。您知道,聽起來您並沒有那麼擔心或影響本季度,市場正在發生什麼以及這對 25 財年有何影響?

  • And then I'll give you my second question at the same time. So given sort of the improvement that you're thinking about in the top line next year and the really strong margins in print, given the future ready plan, any thought to why the capital return policy still fixates around sort of course leverage at two turns, given the structural margin improvement that you've made in the print business despite the revenue defined, and I'll just turn it back. Thank you.

    然後我同時向大家提出我的第二個問題。因此,考慮到您明年的收入有所改善,印刷品的利潤率非常高,考慮到未來的準備計劃,任何想法為什麼資本回報政策仍然圍繞著兩次回合的槓桿率,考慮到儘管收入已確定,但印刷業務的結構性利潤率有所提高,我將把它轉回來。謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll take the first one, and then Karen will take the second. So in terms of competitive environment in print, we have not seen a significant change. We continue to see our Japanese competitors taking strong advantage of the weakness of the yen and the pressure has not changed.

    我會選擇第一個,然後凱倫會選第二個。所以就印刷業的競爭環境而言,我們還沒有看到明顯的改變。我們繼續看到我們的日本競爭對手充分利用日圓疲軟的優勢,壓力並沒有改變。

  • What has changed is that during the last two quarters, as we announced at the beginning of the year, we have been working to aggressively reduce the cost of our products so we could compete more aggressively. And we have started to gain share both in home and in office. But it's not so much a result of the competitive environment getting easier. It is really a consequence of all the work that we are doing as part of our future ready plan, as you said.

    發生的變化是,正如我們在年初宣布的那樣,在過去兩個季度中,我們一直在努力大幅降低產品成本,以便我們可以更積極地競爭。我們已經開始在家庭和辦公室中獲得份額。但這並不是競爭環境變得更容易的結果。正如您所說,這實際上是我們作為未來準備計劃的一部分所做的所有工作的結果。

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • And just on the capital allocation policy, returning capital to shareholders is a priority for us. And our capital allocation policy has not changed, where we still expect to return approximately 100% of our free cash flow over the long term. As long as higher, higher ROI opportunities aren't there and we maintain our leverage ratio of 2 times just under 2 times.

    就資本配置政策而言,向股東返還資本是我們的首要任務。我們的資本配置政策沒有改變,我們仍然期望長期回報約 100% 的自由現金流。只要不存在更高、更高的投資報酬率機會,並且我們將槓桿率維持在 2 倍略低於 2 倍的水平。

  • On the leverage ratio, we do evaluate it every year and our analysis continues to indicate that this is the optimal level for us, and it's aligned with the credit rating that is also aligned with our peers and provides us ample access to short term liquidity.

    關於槓桿率,我們每年都會對其進行評估,我們的分析繼續表明,這對我們來說是最佳水平,並且它與信用評級一致,而信用評級也與我們的同行一致,並為我們提供了充足的短期流動性。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks for clarity guys. Thank you.

    知道了。感謝各位的澄清。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Ng, Goldman Sachs.

    邁克爾吳,高盛。

  • Michael Ng - Analyst

    Michael Ng - Analyst

  • Hey, good afternoon. Thank you for the question. I just have two as well. Just to follow up on David's question regarding print. It was great to hear that, you're working to reduce the cost and price of your products. You see it in the unit growth this quarter, I was wondering if you expect to see continued unit growth as we head into next year as a result of some of your price actions.

    嘿,下午好。謝謝你的提問。我也只有兩個。只是為了跟進大衛關於印刷的問題。很高興聽到您正在努力降低產品的成本和價格。您可以在本季度的單位增長中看到這一點,我想知道您是否預計由於您們的一些價格行為,在我們進入明年時會看到單位的持續增長。

  • And then I'll give you the second one as well. Just on the PC refresh. It's widely understood that this October 2025 is a hard deadline. I was just wondering in prior cycles, have you seen enterprises do much by way of extended support or does that not really kind of impact things at all? Thank you.

    然後我也會給你第二個。剛剛在電腦上刷新。人們普遍認為 2025 年 10 月是一個嚴格的截止日期。我只是想知道在之前的周期中,您是否看到企業透過擴展支援做了很多事情,或者這實際上根本沒有影響?謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • In terms of print, our expectation is that next year market is going to slightly decline and this is our expectation and also the expectation from most of the industry analysts. Our goal is going to continue to grow share, if units are profitable at the system level. So this is continues to be our goal. But at this point, it's hard to predict exactly how competitors are going to be responding. Of course, we are going to maintain our effort to continue to reduce cost as we always do.

    就印刷而言,我們的預期是明年市場會小幅下滑,這是我們的預期,也是大多數產業分析師的預期。如果單位在系統層級實現獲利,我們的目標是繼續增加份額。所以這仍然是我們的目標。但目前,很難準確預測競爭對手會如何反應。當然,我們將一如既往地繼續努力降低成本。

  • And then in terms of the PC refresh, what we have seen previously is the companies respond to the deadline. And this is why we are saying that we expect this to accelerate through 2025. Given that compared to previous refreshes, the refresh is going a little bit slower. And this is why in '25 and especially in the second half, we expect an improvement or a further improvement of commercial demand even by this transition.

    然後就 PC 更新而言,我們之前看到的是各公司對截止日期的反應。這就是為什麼我們說我們預計這種情況會在 2025 年之前加速。這就是為什麼在 25 年,特別是下半年,我們預計即使透過這種轉變,商業需求也會有所改善或進一步改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ananda Baruah, Loop Capital Markets.

    Ananda Baruah,Loop 資本市場。

  • Ananda Baruah - Analyst

    Ananda Baruah - Analyst

  • Yeah, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I appreciate it. I guess Enrique sticking with print, and the market decline, can you give us a sense of what you're thinking for commercial relative to consumer? I'll guess I'll ask both here commercial declines relative to consumer decline, and on the commercial side, what are the trends, what are the sort of dynamics that are informing the market as you as you can best see them? How much is macro, how much is back office adequately and then you said how much is how maybe shift the digital and other things? Thanks.

    是的,夥計們。感謝您提出問題。我很感激。我想恩里克堅持印刷,而市場正在下滑,您能否讓我們了解一下您對商業相對於消費者的想法?我想我會在這裡問相對於消費者下降的商業下降,以及在商業方面,趨勢是什麼,什麼樣的動態正在向市場提供信息,正如你最能看到的那樣?宏觀方面有多少,後台有多少,然後您說數位化和其他方面的轉變有多少?謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Let me, provide some color print and all that. So we, when we look at the different segments in print, we expect that in '25 consumer will continue to decline. So no change from what we have seen. In the office side, we see two dynamics, we see transactional that we expect that will decline. But we see what we call contractual office where managed print services is part of it, that will have a better performance than transactional.

    好的。讓我提供一些彩色列印等等。因此,當我們審視印刷品的不同細分市場時,我們預計 25 年消費者數量將繼續下降。所以我們所看到的沒有任何改變。在辦公室方面,我們看到兩種動態,我們預計交易量將會下降。但我們看到所謂的合約辦公室,其中管理列印服務是其中的一部分,這將比事務性辦公室具有更好的效能。

  • And when we think about areas to focus for us clearly, this is an opportunity because the market will perform better. And also because our share is lower than in other segments. So you should expect us to really go after that category. And then finally, we expect to continue to see growth in the industrial space. We saw strong growth in the second half of this year and we expect to continue to see that in '25.

    當我們清楚地思考我們要關注的領域時,這就是一個機會,因為市場會表現得更好。也因為我們的份額低於其他細分市場。所以你應該期待我們真正追求這個類別。最後,我們預計工業領域將持續成長。我們在今年下半年看到了強勁的成長,並且預計在 25 年將繼續看到這種成長。

  • Ananda Baruah - Analyst

    Ananda Baruah - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.

    知道了。非常感謝。欣賞它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.

    亞倫·雷克斯,富國銀行。

  • Aaron Rakers - Analyst

    Aaron Rakers - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. I'm going to throw two of them out right away. So I guess as we kind of start to focus or definitely shift our focus to the windows upgrade cycle looking into next year, I'm curious as you guys think about the market opportunity, any of the data that you look at it is sizing how large this AI, are this windows installed based, aged installed base looks to be as we think about that going forward.

    是的,感謝您提出問題。我馬上就把他們兩個丟出去。因此,我想,當我們開始關注或肯定將我們的注意力轉移到明年的 Windows 升級週期時,我很好奇,當你們考慮市場機會時,你們看到的任何數據都在衡量如何這個AI很大,是基於Windows安裝的,老化的安裝基礎看起來就像我們考慮的那樣。

  • And then I just want to be clear like, if you look at the PC market -- my second question, if you look at your PC growth estimate of mid-single digits, I think that more or less is in line with where industry shipment expectations are, why would we not see some ASP benefit from these AI PCs on top of that unit growth as we look into next year. I'm just curious if you know how you're thinking about that. Thank you.

    然後我只想澄清一下,如果你看看個人電腦市場——我的第二個問題,如果你看看個人電腦中個位數的成長預測,我認為這或多或少與行業出貨量一致預期是,當我們展望明年時,除了銷售成長之外,為什麼我們看不到這些人工智慧電腦的平均售價受益。我只是好奇你是否知道你是怎麼想的。謝謝。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. The first part of your question is, the answer is definitely yes. We have a lot of analytics that support the opportunity about the refresh analytics that we have and also analytics that Microsoft has, and that we share because we, it's a common interest for both companies to drive. And this is what helps us to assess how much conversion has happened and how much opportunity we have going forward.

    當然。你問題的第一部分是,答案肯定是肯定的。我們有很多分析支持我們擁有的刷新分析和微軟擁有的分析的機會,我們共享這些機會,因為這是兩家公司推動的共同利益。這有助於我們評估已經發生了多少轉換以及我們未來有多少機會。

  • In terms of ASP help from the PC side, we have seen support this year, we have seen revenue growth above unit growth, and we expect a similar phenomenon to happen in '25, and this is part of the guide and that we have provided today.

    就 PC 端的 ASP 幫助而言,我們今年已經看到了支持,我們看到收入增長高於單位增長,我們預計類似的現象會在 25 年發生,這是指南的一部分,我們已經提供了今天。

  • Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

    Karen Parkhill - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, we do expect that we will benefit from ASP growth next year and in the first quarter, and that's really, just given the enhancement of premium offerings including the richer mix of AI PCs.

    是的,我們確實預計明年和第一季我們將受益於平均售價的成長,這確實是考慮到高階產品的增強,包括更豐富的人工智慧 PC 組合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And everyone at this time, there are no further questions.

    而此時的眾人,也沒有再問什麼了。

  • Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Enrique Lores - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Perfect. Thank you everybody for joining today's call. I know it's a little bit later than other calls, especially for those of you in the east coast, so thank you for being here. As you have heard we are very optimistic about the plan that we have in '25. The company, our expectation is that the company will be growing both revenue and operating profit.

    完美的。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我知道這比其他電話要晚一點,特別是對於那些住在東海岸的人來說,所以感謝你們來到這裡。正如您所聽到的,我們對 25 年的計劃非常樂觀。對於該公司,我們的預期是該公司的收入和營業利潤將實現成長。

  • And going forward, we see a strong opportunity in defining the future of work, in helping companies to drive productivity improvement and helping employees to get more fulfillment from their work. A very exciting opportunity that is going to be driving the priorities that we use going forward. So again, thank you for joining today, and for those of you in the US, we wish you a very happy thanksgiving holiday. Thank you.

    展望未來,我們看到了定義工作未來、幫助公司提高生產力、幫助員工從工作中獲得更多成就感的巨大機會。這是一個非常令人興奮的機會,它將推動我們未來的優先事項。再次感謝你們今天的加入,對美國的你們,我們祝福你們感恩節假期愉快。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Once again, everyone that does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的會議再次由大家總結。我們衷心感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。