Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Harley-Davidson 2022 First Quarter Investor and Analyst Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Shawn Collins. Thank you. Please go ahead.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加哈雷戴維森 2022 年第一季度投資者和分析師電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給肖恩·柯林斯。謝謝你。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. Welcome to our Q1 2022 Earnings Call. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at investor.harley-davidson.com.

謝謝你。大家，早安。我是 Harley-Davidson 投資者關係總監 Shawn Collins。歡迎參加我們的 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。您可以訪問互聯網上的investor.harley-davidson.com 訪問支持今天電話會議的幻燈片。

Our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in our latest earnings release and filings with the SEC. Harley-Davidson disclaims any obligation to update information in this call.

我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能會導致實際結果出現重大差異。這些風險包括我們在最新的收益發布和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中註意到的事項。哈雷戴維森不承擔任何更新本次電話會議信息的義務。

Joining me this morning are CEO, Jochen Zeitz; and CFO, Gina Goetter. In addition, Chief Commercial Officer, Edel O'Sullivan, will join for the Q&A. Jochen, let's get started.

今天早上和我一起的是首席執行官 Jochen Zeitz；和首席財務官吉娜·戈特。此外，首席商務官 Edel O'Sullivan 將參加問答環節。喬辰，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Shawn, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Before we get into the quarter's results, I want to take a moment to recognize the devastating war that continues to unfold in Ukraine. On March 1, following the invasion of Ukraine, Harley-Davidson announced that we were suspending our business in Russia. This remains unchanged. At Harley-Davidson, our response to the humanitarian crisis has been driven by the core element of our mission as a brand, freedom. Whether through the philanthropic donations we've made to organizations like United Way or through the efforts of our employees and the wider HOG community, donating time, money and resources to provide aid to those in need. It is that spirit of freedom underpinned by community that has driven our efforts.

謝謝你，肖恩，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。在我們了解本季度的結果之前，我想花一點時間來認識一下在烏克蘭繼續展開的毀滅性戰爭。 3 月 1 日，烏克蘭入侵後，哈雷戴維森宣布暫停在俄羅斯的業務。這保持不變。在哈雷戴維森，我們對人道主義危機的反應是由我們作為品牌使命的核心要素——自由驅動的。無論是通過我們對 United Way 等組織的慈善捐贈，還是通過我們的員工和更廣泛的 HOG 社區的努力，捐贈時間、金錢和資源來為有需要的人提供幫助。正是這種以社區為基礎的自由精神推動了我們的努力。

The key initiative pioneered by the company has been a fundraising T-shirt designed by our employees. We've partnered with 2 charities delivering aid to those in need, United Way and [Openmind], and we are committed to support these organizations and their incredible work as long as needed. With that, I'll move on to our results from the quarter.

公司首創的關鍵舉措是由我們的員工設計的籌款 T 卹。我們與 2 家慈善機構合作，為有需要的人提供援助，United Way 和 [Openmind]，我們致力於在需要時支持這些組織及其出色的工作。有了這個，我將繼續討論本季度的結果。

We started the fiscal year with good momentum across the business, underpinned by a strong global consumer demand for our products. First quarter consolidated revenue was up 5% to $1.495 billion, driven primarily by HDMC revenue growth. And while we are pleased with our start to 2022 and anticipate the momentum to improve during the year, it's important to acknowledge the significant supply challenges that we had to work through in Q1 and that we expect to continue to impact the industry. We are cautiously optimistic on improvements to the supply chain environment in the second half of the year. However, this remains difficult to predict with certainty. That said, the brand is getting stronger and more desirable as we continue on delivering our Hardwire milestones as part of the huge transformational journey the company is on.

在全球消費者對我們產品的強勁需求的支持下，我們在本財年開始時整個業務發展勢頭良好。第一季度綜合收入增長 5% 至 14.95 億美元，主要受 HDMC 收入增長的推動。儘管我們對 2022 年的開始感到高興，並預計這一年的勢頭會有所改善，但重要的是要承認我們在第一季度必須克服的重大供應挑戰，並且我們預計將繼續影響該行業。我們對下半年供應鏈環境的改善持謹慎樂觀的態度。然而，這仍然難以確定地預測。也就是說，隨著我們繼續實現硬線里程碑，作為公司正在進行的巨大轉型之旅的一部分，該品牌正變得越來越強大和令人嚮往。

At the last quarter, we provided a comprehensive recap of our delivery against both the Rewire and the Hardwire, including the important realignment of our organization, creating a culture of performance, efficiency, focus and speed. In unlocking this potential, we set the company's foundation for long-term success. In May, we will be presenting a comprehensive update to our Hardwire strategy. So today, I will only briefly address some highlights from the quarter aligned to our strategic pillars and our delivery against them.

在上個季度，我們全面回顧了我們針對 Rewire 和 Hardwire 的交付情況，包括我們組織的重要重組，創造了一種績效、效率、專注和速度的文化。在釋放這種潛力的過程中，我們為公司的長期成功奠定了基礎。 5 月，我們將展示我們硬線戰略的全面更新。因此，今天，我將僅簡要介紹本季度與我們的戰略支柱以及我們針對它們的交付相一致的一些亮點。

Profit focus. As you know, we are committed to strengthening and growing our position in our strongest motorcycle segments: in Touring, Large Cruise and Trike. Not only are these segments the most profitable in the market globally, but we also believe these segments offer untapped potential to inspire more engagement while compelling new customers and riders to choose Harley-Davidson.

利潤焦點。如您所知，我們致力於加強和發展我們在我們最強大的摩托車領域的地位：在旅行、大型巡航和三輪車領域。這些細分市場不僅是全球市場上利潤最高的細分市場，而且我們還相信這些細分市場具有未開發的潛力，可以激發更多參與度，同時吸引新客戶和騎手選擇哈雷戴維森。

With the Hardwire, we made a commitment to introduce a series of motorcycles that align with our strategy to increase desirability and to drive and build on the incredible legacy of Harley-Davidson. In this context, in January, at our Further. Faster. model year launch, we added extra performance in factory custom style to our '22 motorcycle lineup with a reveal of 8 new models, each powered with the Milwaukee-Eight 117, the most powerful factory-installed engine ever offered by Harley-Davidson for those riders who want nothing but the biggest and the best, building on our position as the most desirable motorcycle brand in the world. New models included the Street Glide ST, the Road Glide ST and the Grand American Touring line, the more powerful Low Rider S and the new Low Rider ST cruiser models and 4 super-premium models from Harley-Davidson Custom Vehicle Operations, CVO.

借助 Hardwire，我們承諾推出一系列符合我們戰略的摩托車，以提高吸引力，並在哈雷戴維森令人難以置信的傳統基礎上繼續前進。在這種情況下，在一月份，在我們的進一步。快點。車型年推出時，我們在 22 年摩托車系列中增加了工廠定制風格的額外性能，展示了 8 款新車型，每款都配備了 Milwaukee-Eight 117，這是哈雷戴維森為那些人提供的最強大的工廠安裝發動機只想要最大和最好的車手，鞏固我們作為世界上最令人嚮往的摩托車品牌的地位。新車型包括 Street Glide ST、Road Glide ST 和 Grand American Touring 系列、更強大的 Low Rider S 和新的 Low Rider ST 巡洋艦車型以及來自 Harley-Davidson Custom Vehicle Operations, CVO 的 4 款超高級車型。

Since launch, the response to this performance-driven lineup has been very strong, and as the market leader, we look forward to building on our performance-driven legacy in these segments. We believe the demand that we are seeing is a good indicator of the desirability that we've been able to build for our brand and product.

自推出以來，對這一以績效為導向的產品陣容的反響非常強烈，作為市場領導者，我們期待在這些細分市場繼續鞏固我們以績效為導向的傳統。我們相信，我們看到的需求很好地表明了我們能夠為我們的品牌和產品建立的可取性。

Lead in electric. Electric motorcycles are important to Harley-Davidson's future, and we're committed to staying at the forefront of electric motorcycle technology. LiveWire continues on its mission to be the most desirable electric motorcycle company and brand in the world. Building on our announcement from last year, the LiveWire transaction remains on track as we work towards a listing in Q2. We recently opened the first LiveWire experience center in Malibu with one of our first in-person events since the pandemic began. The consumer awareness to the brand is building and the interest in EV continues to grow.

鉛在電。電動摩托車對哈雷戴維森的未來很重要，我們致力於保持在電動摩托車技術的最前沿。 LiveWire 繼續致力於成為世界上最令人嚮往的電動摩托車公司和品牌。在我們去年宣布的基礎上，隨著我們努力在第二季度上市，LiveWire 交易仍在進行中。我們最近在馬里布開設了第一家 LiveWire 體驗中心，這是自大流行開始以來我們的首次面對面活動之一。消費者對該品牌的認識正在建立，對電動汽車的興趣持續增長。

Growth beyond bikes. Harley-Davidson Financial Services, H-D1 Marketplace, Parts & Accessories, Apparel & Licensing are important drivers of the company's future success as a global sport and lifestyle brand providing untapped potential to grow our customer base. HDFS is an important asset to Harley-Davidson from both a brand and revenue point of view. And as we look ahead, we look forward to widening our HDFS offering to new markets.

超越自行車的增長。哈雷戴維森金融服務、H-D1 市場、零件和配件、服裝和許可是公司作為全球運動和生活方式品牌未來成功的重要驅動力，為擴大我們的客戶群提供了尚未開發的潛力。從品牌和收入的角度來看，HDFS 對哈雷戴維森來說都是一項重要資產。展望未來，我們期待將我們的 HDFS 產品擴展到新市場。

This quarter, we've seen retail credit losses begin to normalize, resulting in a higher provision for credit losses, partially offset by lower interest expense. This quarter saw a particularly strong performance from Parts & Accessories, especially in North America. With personalization at the heart of motor culture and the Harley-Davidson brand, we believe Parts & Accessories is a long-term growth area for the business and that there is strong potential to continue growth trajectory as more riders look to make Harley-Davidson uniquely theirs.

本季度，我們看到零售信貸損失開始正常化，導致信貸損失準備金增加，部分被較低的利息支出抵消。本季度零部件和配件的表現尤為強勁，尤其是在北美。由於個性化是汽車文化和哈雷戴維森品牌的核心，我們相信零件和配件是該業務的長期增長領域，並且隨著越來越多的騎手希望讓哈雷戴維森變得獨一無二，繼續增長軌蹟的潛力很大他們的。

This quarter is the first time we are reporting Apparel & Licensing as a separate business unit. The quarter saw modest growth in apparel against a challenging supply backdrop and strong growth in our licensing business. Looking ahead, we're excited that the potential to grow both Apparel & Licensing, leveraging the power of the Harley-Davidson brand across the globe.

本季度是我們第一次將服裝和許可作為一個單獨的業務部門進行報告。在充滿挑戰的供應背景和我們的授權業務強勁增長的情況下，本季度服裝出現適度增長。展望未來，我們對利用哈雷戴維森品牌在全球的影響力發展服裝和許可業務的潛力感到興奮。

And lastly, this quarter saw the publication of our annual inclusive stakeholder management report, highlighting some of the key achievements by the company through inclusive stakeholder management in the context of people, planet and profit. We continue to redefine and evolve our brand and company with inclusive stakeholder management as 1 of our 6 strategic priorities. The report highlights include prioritizing people through the implementation of The Hardwire grant, preserving our planet through our commitment to reduce carbon emissions and creating a path to achieving net 0 carbon emissions for Harley-Davidson by 2050 and for LiveWire by 2035 and promoting social profit through the Harley-Davidson Foundation's investment into our home neighborhood in Milwaukee, making it not only a great place to work, but a great place to live and visit. We have much to be proud of and much to look forward to in the years ahead.

最後，本季度我們發布了年度包容性利益相關者管理報告，重點介紹了公司在人員、地球和利潤背景下通過包容性利益相關者管理取得的一些關鍵成就。我們繼續重新定義和發展我們的品牌和公司，將包容性利益相關者管理作為我們 6 大戰略重點之一。該報告的重點包括通過實施 The Hardwire 贈款來優先考慮人們，通過我們減少碳排放的承諾來保護我們的星球，並為 Harley-Davidson 和 LiveWire 到 2050 年和 2035 年實現淨零碳排放創造一條道路，並通過以下方式促進社會利潤哈雷戴維森基金會對我們在密爾沃基的家鄉社區的投資，使它不僅是一個工作的好地方，也是一個生活和參觀的好地方。在未來的歲月裡，我們有很多值得驕傲和期待的事情。

And before I hand over to Gina, I want to reiterate that we are looking forward to welcoming many of you to Milwaukee on the 10th of May for Harley-Davidson, our inaugural LiveWire investor sessions. But now I'll hand over to Gina to run through the numbers.

在我交給 Gina 之前，我想重申一下，我們期待著在 5 月 10 日歡迎你們中的許多人來到密爾沃基，參加我們的首屆 LiveWire 投資者會議哈雷戴維森。但現在我將交給 Gina 來處理這些數字。

Thank you, Jochen. First quarter results reflect year-over-year revenue growth but operating profit declined as we continue to operate in a volatile and inflationary supply chain environment, and we began lapping last year's record performance within HDFS as a result of the lower loss rates and reserve allowance release. We continue to deal with the constraints resulting from the global semiconductor shortage, higher raw material prices and broad supplier volatility with cost inflation at levels consistent with what we experienced in the back half of 2021.

謝謝你，喬辰。第一季度業績反映收入同比增長，但營業利潤下降，因為我們繼續在動盪和通貨膨脹的供應鏈環境中運營，並且由於較低的損失率和準備金準備金，我們開始在 HDFS 內創下去年的創紀錄業績釋放。我們將繼續應對全球半導體短缺、原材料價格上漲和供應商廣泛波動所帶來的限制，成本通脹水平與我們在 2021 年下半年所經歷的水平一致。

Looking more closely at our financial results in the quarter. Total consolidated revenue of $1.5 billion was 5% ahead of last year. This increase was largely driven by revenue growth of 6% within HDMC. Despite wholesale motorcycle units being flat year-over-year, revenue growth was attributed to strong global pricing, an 11% growth across our Parts & Accessories business and 2% growth in the apparel business. Within the Financial Services segment, revenue was up 1% due to higher retail lending. Total operating income of $289 million was down 16% compared to last year, in line with our expectations.

更仔細地查看我們本季度的財務業績。合併總收入為 15 億美元，比去年增長 5%。這一增長主要是由 HDMC 內部 6% 的收入增長推動的。儘管批發摩托車單位同比持平，但收入增長歸因於強勁的全球定價、我們的零件和配件業務增長 11% 以及服裝業務增長 2%。在金融服務部門，由於零售貸款增加，收入增長了 1%。總營業收入為 2.89 億美元，較去年下降 16%，符合我們的預期。

For HDMC, operating income was $203 million, down 11% versus last year. The profit decline is attributed to cost inflation and production limitations, preventing us from achieving an optimal unit mix. At HDFS, operating income was $86 million, down 27% versus prior year as the loss performance continues to normalize in line with expectations. First quarter GAAP earnings per share of $1.45 compares to $1.68 last year with the decline driven by the factors already noted.

HDMC 的營業收入為 2.03 億美元，比去年下降 11%。利潤下降歸因於成本膨脹和生產限制，使我們無法實現最佳單位組合。 HDFS 的營業收入為 8600 萬美元，比上年下降 27%，因為虧損表現繼續正常化，符合預期。第一季度 GAAP 每股收益為 1.45 美元，而去年為 1.68 美元，下降的原因是已經提到的因素。

Global retail sales of new motorcycles were up 2% in the quarter with significant growth in our international markets, offsetting a decline in North America. North America Q1 retail sales were down 5% versus last year as production challenges resulted in lower dealer inventories. We continue to build out our reservation system with a new model year launch with 92% of the U.S. dealer network participating in the program, which is up from 78% in 2021. Reservations have increased 48% in 2022 compared to total 2021 reservations. Recent new model introductions continue to show high demand and are leading reservation requests, including Low Rider ST, Pan America Special and Sportster S.

本季度全球新摩托車零售額增長 2%，我們的國際市場顯著增長，抵消了北美的下滑。由於生產挑戰導致經銷商庫存減少，北美第一季度零售額較去年下降 5%。我們繼續構建我們的預訂系統，推出新車型年，92% 的美國經銷商網絡參與了該計劃，高於 2021 年的 78%。與 2021 年的總預訂量相比，2022 年的預訂量增加了 48%。最近推出的新車型繼續顯示出很高的需求，並且是領先的預訂請求，包括 Low Rider ST、Pan America Special 和 Sportster S。

In markets outside of North America, Q1 retail sales were up 21% versus last year, driven by growth in EMEA, which was up 28%, and Asia Pacific, which was up 16%. EMEA and APAC retail sales were positively impacted by greater product availability and moving past the majority of the unit declines associated with the market exits and model pruning actions taken as part of The Rewire. Worldwide retail inventory of new motorcycles was down 24% versus last year and roughly flat to the previous quarter. Given the challenges with production, there was limited pipeline fill. On average, a bike is sitting on the showroom floor in the U.S. for less than 2 weeks, which is an extraordinary reduction from Q1 2019 when this was more like 10 weeks.

在北美以外的市場，第一季度的零售額比去年增長了 21%，這得益於歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 28% 和亞太地區增長 16%。歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的零售銷售受到產品可用性增加的積極影響，並且超過了與市場退出和作為 The Rewire 的一部分採取的模型修剪行動相關的大部分單位下降。新摩托車的全球零售庫存與去年相比下降了 24%，與上一季度大致持平。鑑於生產方面的挑戰，管道填充有限。平均而言，一輛自行車在美國的陳列室地板上停留的時間不到 2 週，與 2019 年第一季度的大約 10 週相比，這是一個驚人的減少。

Overall, we continue to see strong pricing dynamics for both new and used motorcycles in Q1 as we did throughout 2021, with transaction prices staying within 2 points of MSRP. The used market also held steady with prices continuing to trend significantly above historical levels and with a narrow gap to the new motorcycle pricing.

總體而言，我們在第一季度繼續看到新車和二手摩托車的強勁定價動態，就像我們在 2021 年全年所做的那樣，交易價格保持在建議零售價的 2 個百分點以內。二手市場也保持穩定，價格繼續顯著高於歷史水平，與新摩托車價格差距很小。

Looking at revenue. Total HDMC Q1 revenue was up 6% versus last year. Focusing on the key drivers in the quarter, 2 points of growth came from volume, which is a combination of flat motorcycle units and growth in the Parts & Accessories and the Apparel business; 7 points of growth from pricing and incentives driven by global MSRP price increases, coupled with pricing surcharges in select markets; 2 points of negative impact from unfavorable mix due to supply limitations, which predominantly impacted our North America Touring business; and finally, 1 point of negative impact from foreign exchange.

看收入。 HDMC 第一季度的總收入與去年相比增長了 6%。聚焦本季度的關鍵驅動因素，2 個增長點來自銷量，這是扁平摩托車與零部件和服裝業務增長的結合；全球廠商建議零售價上漲推動的定價和激勵措施帶來 7 個增長點，再加上特定市場的定價附加費；由於供應限制，不利的組合產生了 2 個負面影響，主要影響了我們的北美旅遊業務；最後，來自外彙的1點負面影響。

Focusing in on margins. Q1 gross margin of 31.3% was down 280 basis points versus last year. The margin benefit from pricing was offset by the negative cost inflation across the supply chain and an unfavorable impact for motorcycle mix. Recall that in 2021, inflation really started accelerating in Q2 and continued ramping as we move throughout the year. The cost inflation we saw come through in Q1 is consistent with the levels seen in the back half of last year. Q1 operating margin finished at 15.6% compared to 18.5% last year. Besides the drivers already noted, we had higher operating expenses in the quarter, primarily driven by LiveWire.

專注於利潤。第一季度毛利率為 31.3%，比去年下降 280 個基點。定價帶來的利潤收益被整個供應鏈的負成本通脹和對摩托車組合的不利影響所抵消。回想一下，在 2021 年，通脹確實在第二季度開始加速，並隨著我們全年的行動而繼續攀升。我們在第一季度看到的成本通脹與去年下半年的水平一致。第一季度營業利潤率為 15.6%，而去年為 18.5%。除了已經提到的驅動因素外，我們本季度的運營費用較高，主要是由 LiveWire 驅動的。

The Financial Services segment operating income in Q1 was $86 million down $32 million compared to last year and slightly better than internal expectations. The decline versus last year is largely driven by the unfavorable year-over-year comparison in 2021, where we experienced both low loss rates and a significant release of the loss allowance.

第一季度金融服務部門的營業收入為 8600 萬美元，與去年相比減少了 3200 萬美元，略好於內部預期。與去年相比的下降主要是由於 2021 年不利的同比比較，我們經歷了低損失率和大量損失準備金的釋放。

Setting aside the tough comp to 2021 and looking at the HDFS-based business, retail originations in Q1 were up 13% versus last year, behind strong new and used motorcycle origination volume. Ending finance receivables in Q1 were $6.8 billion, which is up 1% from last year. HDFS' retail credit loss ratio of 1.8% is a 60 basis point increase versus 2021 as credit performance continues to revert back to historical norms and we move past the benefits provided to individuals under the federal stimulus packages last year. This increase in Q1 is in line with expectations. In addition, the retail allowance for credit losses at the end of Q1 was 5%, which was unchanged from Q4.

撇開到 2021 年的艱難競爭不談，看看基於 HDFS 的業務，第一季度的零售起源比去年增長了 13%，落後於強勁的新舊摩托車起源量。第一季度末應收金融應收賬款為 68 億美元，比去年增長 1%。 HDFS 的零售信貸損失率為 1.8%，與 2021 年相比增加了 60 個基點，因為信貸表現繼續恢復到歷史標準，並且我們超越了去年聯邦刺激計劃為個人提供的福利。第一季度的增長符合預期。此外，一季度末的零售信用損失準備金為 5%，與四季度持平。

Wrapping up with Harley-Davidson, Inc. financial results. We delivered $139 million of operating cash flow, down from $163 million in Q1 2021. The decrease in operating cash flow was driven by a change in working capital. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1.4 billion, which is down $927 million compared to the end of the prior year Q1. And during the quarter, we restarted share repurchases and bought back approximately 6.2 million shares.

總結哈雷戴維森公司的財務業績。我們實現了 1.39 億美元的運營現金流，低於 2021 年第一季度的 1.63 億美元。運營現金流的減少是由營運資金的變化推動的。現金和現金等價物總額為 14 億美元，與去年第一季度末相比減少了 9.27 億美元。在本季度，我們重新啟動了股票回購併回購了大約 620 萬股。

As we look to the rest of 2022, we reaffirm our full year outlook, where we continue to expect HDMC revenue growth of 5% to 10%. This revenue growth forecast incorporates what we know today in terms of the impact of the semiconductor and supplier challenges impacting our business. We expect revenue to continue to be positively impacted by our global pricing actions as we work to offset the cost headwinds across the supply chain. Furthermore, we expect annual growth through the Parts & Accessories and Apparel & Licensing businesses.

展望 2022 年剩餘時間，我們重申全年展望，我們繼續預計 HDMC 收入增長 5% 至 10%。這一收入增長預測結合了我們今天所知道的半導體和供應商挑戰影響我們業務的影響。隨著我們努力抵消整個供應鏈的成本逆風，我們預計收入將繼續受到全球定價行動的積極影響。此外，我們預計零部件和配件以及服裝和許可業務將實現年度增長。

We continue to expect HDMC operating income margin of 11% to 12%. We believe the anticipated positive impact from volume leverage, unit mix and pricing, combined with growth across our margin-accretive businesses of P&A and apparel will more than offset the expected cost inflation across supply chain. Also, the suspension of the additional EU tariffs realized in 2021 contributes over 1 point of margin growth.

我們繼續預計 HDMC 的營業利潤率為 11% 至 12%。我們認為，銷量槓桿、單位組合和定價帶來的預期積極影響，加上我們的 P&A 和服裝等可增加利潤的業務的增長，將足以抵消整個供應鏈的預期成本通脹。此外，2021 年實現的歐盟額外關稅暫停貢獻了超過 1 個百分點的利潤率增長。

We continue to expect HDFS operating income to decline by 20% to 25%. This decline is largely a result of the favorable allowance releases and lower credit losses in 2021. We believe this favorability is not likely to repeat itself in 2022. And lastly, we continue to expect capital investments of $190 million to $220 million as we invest behind product development and capability enhancement in support of our Hardwire strategy.

我們繼續預計 HDFS 營業收入將下降 20% 至 25%。這種下降主要是由於 2021 年有利的撥備釋放和較低的信貸損失。我們認為，這種有利情況不太可能在 2022 年重演。最後，我們繼續預計資本投資將在 1.9 億美元至 2.2 億美元之間，因為我們的投資在後面產品開發和能力增強，以支持我們的硬線戰略。

Embedded within our guidance for 2022 is LiveWire. At this time, we remain committed to the outlook issued as part of our December 13 announcement. And finally, as we look to the 2022 capital allocation, our priorities remain to fund growth of the Hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures previously mentioned, pay dividends, and we plan to continue to execute discretionary share repurchases. We have 12 million shares remaining at the end of Q1 on our Board-approved share repurchase plan.

LiveWire 嵌入了我們的 2022 年指南。目前，我們仍然致力於作為我們 12 月 13 日公告的一部分發布的展望。最後，當我們展望 2022 年的資本分配時，我們的優先事項仍然是為硬線計劃的增長提供資金，其中包括前面提到的資本支出、支付股息，我們計劃繼續執行全權股份回購。在我們董事會批准的股票回購計劃中，截至第一季度末，我們還有 1200 萬股股票。

This financial guidance is reflective of the supply chain outlook that we have at this time. This updated forecast assumes that logistics and manufacturing will improve as we move through the back half of the year as we get beyond the peak levels of inflation experienced in 2021 and the semiconductor supply stabilizes. Given the macro global factors influencing raw materials, we now believe that raw materials and supply component inflation will continue through the balance of 2022 at inflation rates similar to Q1.

該財務指導反映了我們目前的供應鏈前景。這一更新的預測假設，隨著我們度過 2021 年經歷的通脹峰值水平和半導體供應穩定，隨著我們度過下半年，物流和製造將得到改善。鑑於影響原材料的宏觀全球因素，我們現在認為原材料和供應成分通脹將持續到 2022 年餘下，通脹率與第一季度相似。

As we think about phasing through the year, we believe our back half revenue growth is going to be stronger than our front half. Additionally, due to the timing of anticipated supply chain stabilization, we expect our operating income margin to be in the mid-teens in the front half and to be in that mid- to high single digits in the back half.

當我們考慮分階段進行這一年時，我們相信我們後半部分的收入增長將強於前半部分。此外，由於預期供應鏈穩定的時機，我們預計我們的營業收入利潤率將在前半部分在十幾歲左右，在後半部分將達到中高個位數。

At this point, I'll turn it back to the operator to take your questions.

在這一點上，我會把它轉回給接線員來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Robby Ohmes from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Robby Ohmes。

I -- it's actually 2. The first one is just, Gina, could you give us some color on the -- how the shipments trended through the first quarter? Was there a shortfall in March on the U.S. side? And maybe some thought on -- you've given a little color on supply chain, but I think Polaris kind of said that they might be seeing some green shoots in supply chain. Is there any more color you can give on that?

我——實際上是 2。第一個只是，吉娜，你能給我們一些顏色——第一季度的出貨量趨勢如何？美國方面在 3 月份出現短缺嗎？也許有些想法 - 你已經給供應鏈一點顏色，但我認為北極星有點說他們可能會在供應鏈中看到一些綠芽。你可以給它更多顏色嗎？

And then in terms of the guidance for the year, could you give some more color on timing of gross margin offsets, things that could make the gross margin look better in the back half related to term changes and potential for more surcharges?

然後就今年的指導而言，您能否就毛利率抵消的時間給予更多的色彩，這可能會使後半部分的毛利率看起來更好，與條款變化和潛在的更多附加費有關？

Thanks for the questions, plural. Let's start with shipments and how they move throughout the quarter. I would say March was definitely worse than earlier in the quarter, and this really had everything to do with our chip supply and how that impacted our production as we move through kind of the balance of first quarter. So we did see kind of that rate of production slow as we move through.

謝謝你的問題，複數。讓我們從出貨量以及它們在整個季度的移動方式開始。我會說 3 月份肯定比本季度早些時候更糟，這確實與我們的芯片供應以及在我們度過第一季度的平衡時這如何影響我們的生產有關。因此，我們確實看到了這種生產速度在我們進行的過程中有所放緩。

In terms of supply chain and what we're seeing here in the first quarter, very similar to what we saw in the back half of last year. Q4 looked very similar to what we're seeing here in Q1. And as we move through the balance of the year, what we're saying -- or what we're seeing is that from a supplier and a chip availability, we do see some improvements in chips in the back half of the year, but we do expect that supplier volatility will remain. So that is -- that's something that what we saw in Q1 is going to continue as we move the balance of the year.

就供應鍊和我們在第一季度看到的情況而言，與我們在去年下半年看到的情況非常相似。第四季度看起來與我們在第一季度看到的非常相似。隨著我們度過今年的剩餘時間，我們所說的——或者我們所看到的是從供應商和芯片的可用性來看，我們確實看到了今年下半年芯片的一些改進，但是我們確實預計供應商的波動性將繼續存在。所以這就是我們在第一季度看到的情況，隨著我們移動今年的餘額，這將繼續下去。

Where we see some green shoots for improvement are within logistics and within our manufacturing environment. So within manufacturing, as that chip supply becomes more confident, we're able to better produce and more efficiently produce. And so you can see that we had that slide in the deck that shows that our manufacturing kind of inflation rate in the front half of the year is a bit worse than the back half of the year, and that has everything to do with how we're able to efficiently run our operation due to that acute issue with chips.

我們在物流和我們的製造環境中看到了一些改進的萌芽。因此，在製造業中，隨著芯片供應變得更有信心，我們能夠更好地生產和更高效地生產。所以你可以看到我們的幻燈片顯示我們上半年的製造業通脹率比下半年略差，這與我們如何由於芯片的嚴重問題，我們能夠有效地運行我們的業務。

Logistics is the other one that we are forecasting gets better in the back half of the year. And it's not as though costs are going to come down, but we're saying that costs are not going to inflate as much as we saw here in Q1. Remember, last year, we didn't have much inflation in Q1. We had -- all of that inflation really started picking up for logistics in Q2 and kind of kept accelerating as we move through Q3, Q4. So this quarter, again, reflects that kind of last -- the last quarter in a 4-quarter cycle of higher inflation.

物流是我們預測的另一個在今年下半年會變得更好的物流。並不是說成本會下降，但我們說成本不會像第一季度看到的那樣膨脹。請記住，去年，我們在第一季度沒有太多的通貨膨脹。我們已經 - 所有這些通貨膨脹在第二季度開始真正開始在物流上加速，並且隨著我們進入第三季度和第四季度而不斷加速。因此，本季度再次反映了這種最後一個季度——四個季度的高通脹週期中的最後一個季度。

And so in terms of how we're thinking about guidance, because of our better visibility on chip supply and the confidence that gives us in what we're able to produce and how we see the supply chain phasing, that's what gives us confidence to say we -- from a margin perspective, we see a step-up as we move into the back half of the year. And remember, too, we have pricing, pricing that carries -- global pricing that carries us through the whole year, plus other actions that we're taking across cost that help to keep our eye on overall margin.

因此，就我們如何考慮指導而言，由於我們對芯片供應的更好了解以及對我們能夠生產的產品以及我們如何看待供應鏈階段性的信心，這讓我們有信心說我們 - 從利潤的角度來看，隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們看到了一個進步。還要記住，我們有定價，定價——讓我們度過全年的全球定價，加上我們在成本方面採取的其他行動，有助於保持我們對整體利潤率的關注。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Joe Altobello。

A couple of quick questions. I guess, first, the dichotomy between retail trends in the U.S. and internationally in Q1. Was that all due to the difference in base period compares? You mentioned in terms of EMEA, better availability, et cetera, but it just seemed like it was a big difference this quarter. So I'm curious what you saw from a demand standpoint internationally that maybe you didn't see in the U.S.

幾個快速的問題。我想，首先，第一季度美國和國際零售趨勢之間的二分法。是不是因為基期比較的不同？您提到了歐洲、中東和非洲地區、更好的可用性等，但本季度似乎有很大的不同。所以我很好奇你從國際需求的角度看到了什麼，也許你在美國沒有看到。

Joe, demand is equally strong throughout the region. You need to consider that especially in the first quarter of last year in the EMEA region, we had a big drop and that we were compensating with the first quarter of this year, but there is no demand difference. Demand is equally strong in all regions. Also, what you need to bear in mind is -- maybe as an additional comment is we service the U.S. market from our New York manufacturing plant and Thailand serves the EMEA region as well. So there's also a commitment that we've made and slight differences in timing in terms of when we were manufacturing, in particular, in March. But to repeat, demand is strong in all the regions at this point.

喬，整個地區的需求同樣強勁。你需要考慮到，特別是去年第一季度在 EMEA 地區，我們有很大的下降，我們正在補償今年第一季度，但沒有需求差異。所有地區的需求同樣強勁。此外，您需要記住的是——也許作為補充說明，我們從我們的紐約製造工廠為美國市場提供服務，而泰國也為歐洲、中東和非洲地區提供服務。因此，我們還做出了承諾，並且在製造時間方面略有不同，特別是在 3 月份。但重複一遍，此時所有地區的需求都很強勁。

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Kennison from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Craig Kennison。

It's on the economy. Obviously, there's a lot of focus on your supply chain challenges and rightly so. But we do get a lot more questions on the economy and demand trends as the Fed looks to fight inflation and the potential for a recession as they try to get ahead of it. I guess, in your mind, what can you do to prepare for a recession? And how likely is that as you see your current demand trends today?

是關於經濟的。顯然，您的供應鏈挑戰有很多關注點，這是正確的。但我們確實收到了更多關於經濟和需求趨勢的問題，因為美聯儲希望與通脹作鬥爭，以及在他們試圖超越它時出現衰退的可能性。我想，在你看來，你能做些什麼來為經濟衰退做準備？當您看到當前的需求趨勢時，這種可能性有多大？

Thanks, Craig. I mean, demand trends and signals are strong. As Gina mentioned, we have now 92% of our dealer network that are leveraging our reservation system. Reservations are up 48% versus last year. So quantitatively and qualitatively, the feedback data we are getting from our dealers, that confirm that demand for our product is very strong.

謝謝，克雷格。我的意思是，需求趨勢和信號很強。正如 Gina 所說，我們現在有 92% 的經銷商網絡都在利用我們的預訂系統。與去年相比，預訂量增加了 48%。從數量和質量上看，我們從經銷商那裡得到的反饋數據證實了對我們產品的需求非常強勁。

I also mentioned the inventory levels of 2 weeks versus 10 weeks, inventory levels down 24%, and that is a result of the strong demand that continues up to today. Market share, in our most profitable categories, is actually growing. We have more riders than ever through our Riding Academy. And if you look at our spread between used and new bike prices, it's as small as it's ever been.

我還提到了 2 週與 10 週的庫存水平，庫存水平下降了 24%，這是持續到今天的強勁需求的結果。在我們最賺錢的類別中，市場份額實際上正在增長。通過我們的騎術學院，我們擁有比以往更多的騎手。如果您查看我們在二手和新自行車價格之間的差價，就會發現它與以往一樣小。

And as also, Gina mentioned, transaction prices are at or above MSRP. So everything we see continues to suggest that demand is strong. Of course, that you can't anticipate a recession, right? But what will help if the market, at some point, goes into recession is that we have extremely low inventory levels and that will allow us to [fill] back some into the pipeline if demand were to soften without impacting our wholesales negatively.

同樣，吉娜提到，交易價格等於或高於建議零售價。因此，我們看到的一切繼續表明需求強勁。當然，你不能預測經濟衰退，對吧？但是，如果市場在某個時候陷入衰退，那麼我們的庫存水平極低，如果需求疲軟而不會對我們的批發產生負面影響，這將使我們能夠[填補]一些庫存。

I think also from an HDFS perspective, we really started from a very healthy position. If you look at the cost of funds, they are half the rate of where they were back in 2009. The interest rates are more competitive and we still have very low, loss rates. And building with these levels have really improved with consumers and are in a much stronger position. So overall, I think, coming from -- we are obviously preparing ourselves, but we see no indication at this point in time. And in particular, for our products, demand is strong, and that's what we're planning for.

我也認為從 HDFS 的角度來看，我們確實是從一個非常健康的位置開始的。如果你看一下資金成本，它們是 2009 年的一半。利率更具競爭力，我們的損失率仍然非常低。以這些水平建造的建築在消費者中確實得到了改善，並且處於更強大的地位。所以總的來說，我認為，我們顯然正在為自己做準備，但我們目前沒有看到任何跡象。特別是對於我們的產品，需求強勁，這就是我們的計劃。

Our next question comes from the line of Brett Andress from KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Brett Andress。

Our next question comes from the line of David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

This is Joe Nolan on for David MacGregor. I was just wondering if you could talk about within the 5% to 10% motorcycle revenue growth guidance for the year, could you just talk about how you're thinking about volume versus price within that guidance?

這是大衛麥格雷戈的喬諾蘭。我只是想知道您是否可以談論今年 5% 到 10% 的摩托車收入增長指導，您能否談談您在該指導中如何考慮數量與價格？

Sure, this is Gina. So in that 5% to 10%, how we've talked about it at the low end of the range, at that 5%, it's basically all price. At the high end of the range at 10%, that is both a combination of volume and price.

當然，這是吉娜。所以在那個 5% 到 10% 的範圍內，我們在這個範圍的低端談論它，在那個 5% 的範圍內，基本上都是價格。在 10% 的範圍的高端，這是數量和價格的結合。

Our next question comes from the line of Jaime Katz from Morningstar. .

我們的下一個問題來自晨星的 Jaime Katz。 .

First, I'm curious if you would be willing to discuss what your composition of dealer inventory looks like right now and maybe where your optimal time on the show floor would be. It's obviously somewhere between 2 weeks and 10 weeks, but I'm guessing we maybe aren't at that level yet.

首先，我很好奇您是否願意討論您現在的經銷商庫存構成，以及您在展廳的最佳時間。顯然在 2 周到 10 週之間，但我猜我們可能還沒有達到那個水平。

And then as you think about mix of units for the rest of the year. If you have any insight as to how you expect that to play out, that would be really helpful from a gross margin perspective.

然後當您考慮今年剩餘時間的單位組合時。如果您對預期的結果有任何見解，那麼從毛利率的角度來看，這將非常有幫助。

Jaime, thank you for your question. Let me tackle the first part of it first around where we think the optimal inventory level. As you referenced, I think we have certainly seen that we are a little bit lighter than we would like to be today in the dealer network. That is certainly something we hear, as Jochen mentioned, both qualitatively from our dealers, and we can also see it in just the speed of how those units are turning.

詹姆，謝謝你的提問。讓我首先圍繞我們認為的最佳庫存水平來解決它的第一部分。正如您所提到的，我認為我們確實已經看到我們比我們今天在經銷商網絡中想要的要輕一些。正如 Jochen 所提到的，這當然是我們從經銷商那裡聽到的，而且我們也可以從這些裝置的轉動速度中看出這一點。

Now we think that there are a lot of things that we are doing in the short term to help support that leaner inventory position, both domestically and internationally with our reservations and preorder systems as paramount among those measures. But we would certainly like to see the inventory growing to be a little bit more robust over time.

現在我們認為我們在短期內正在做很多事情來幫助支持國內和國際的精簡庫存狀況，我們的預訂和預訂系統是這些措施中最重要的。但我們當然希望看到庫存隨著時間的推移變得更加強勁。

That said, to your reference as sort of the high end of that range of 10 weeks, we certainly do not envision the need to go back to that level of inventory. I think both ourselves and our dealers have learned how to operate much more efficiently and to find different ways to meet our customer demand for specific models, particularly those new models in a way that does not require us to have excessive inventory on the dealer floor. So it is something that we are learning. We continue to evolve the model. We continue to gain further understanding of consumer behavior as we go through the past couple of years, and we certainly will factor that into how we think about the inventory levels going forward.

也就是說，對於您作為 10 週範圍的高端的參考，我們當然不認為有必要回到那個庫存水平。我認為我們自己和我們的經銷商都已經學會瞭如何更有效地運營，並找到不同的方式來滿足客戶對特定車型的需求，尤其是那些新車型，並且不需要我們在經銷商處有過多的庫存。所以這是我們正在學習的東西。我們繼續改進模型。在過去幾年中，我們繼續進一步了解消費者行為，我們當然會將其納入我們對未來庫存水平的看法。

To the second part of your question around units, again, as Gina referenced, in Q1, we certainly were planning for a higher level of demand or of shipments around -- shipments specifically around our Touring product in North America. As Jochen referenced, there's a certain amount of this mix that is influenced by our manufacturing footprint that was differentially impacted throughout the quarter. We expect to see some recovery in that towards the back half of the year.

對於您關於單位的問題的第二部分，再次，正如 Gina 所提到的，在第一季度，我們當然正在計劃更高水平的需求或出貨量——特別是圍繞我們在北美的 Touring 產品的出貨量。正如 Jochen 所提到的，這種組合中有一定數量受到我們的製造足蹟的影響，在整個季度受到不同程度的影響。我們預計在今年下半年會看到一些復甦。

And we certainly would say, I mean, hear this again, quantitatively, you can see it in the data and qualitatively from our dealers, that there is strong demand in North America for some of those core products that represent some of our most profitable families and product lines that we intend to meet throughout the year. So I would say that there is certainly opportunity for mix in how those core segments will represent throughout the rest of the year.

我們當然會說，我的意思是，再聽一次，從數量上看，你可以從我們的經銷商的數據和質量上看到，北美對代表我們一些最賺錢的家庭的一些核心產品有強烈的需求以及我們打算全年滿足的產品線。所以我想說，這些核心部分在今年剩餘時間裡的表現肯定有機會混合。

Our next question comes from the line of Brett Andress from KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Brett Andress。

Sorry about that earlier. Gina, you helped us with the phasing of the Motor Co. Is there any way you can help us with HDFS phasing for the rest of the year and maybe how some of the CECL provisions might play into that?

很抱歉之前那個。 Gina，您幫助我們完成了 Motor Co 的分階段工作。您有什麼辦法可以幫助我們在今年餘下的時間里分階段進行 HDFS，或者 CECL 的某些規定可能會如何影響這一點？

Yes, good question. I would say it's going to be relatively constant with what you saw play through here in Q1. There's not any big spikes up or down. I mean we had the -- when you think about the reserve release and what happened last year, it was a pretty kind of steady decline as we moved quarter-by-quarter. When you look at where our reserve rate is at -- in Q1, relatively unchanged from what we saw in Q4. So we're not, at this point, expecting any big swings up or down in that reserve rate as we move through the balance of the year. And that was what was really creating, I would say, the lumpiness in last year's results.

是的，好問題。我會說它會與你在第一季度看到的情況保持相對穩定。沒有任何大的尖峰向上或向下。我的意思是我們有 - 當你考慮儲備釋放和去年發生的事情時，隨著我們逐季度移動，這是一種相當穩定的下降。當您查看我們的準備金率時 - 在第一季度，與我們在第四季度看到的相對沒有變化。因此，在這一點上，我們並不期望在我們度過今年的餘額時該準備金率會出現任何大幅波動。我想說，這才是真正造成去年結果參差不齊的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Gerrick Johnson from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Gerrick Johnson。

I was hoping we could talk a little bit more about pricing, particularly surcharges. I think in international, maybe you did not have some surcharges last year and if you're implementing those international markets this year. And then also, the contribution from the reduction in dealer margin and how you came to that decision to go forward with a lower margin for dealers.

我希望我們能多談談定價，尤其是附加費。我認為在國際上，也許你去年沒有一些附加費，如果你今年正在實施這些國際市場。然後，還有經銷商利潤率下降的貢獻，以及您如何做出降低經銷商利潤率的決定。

Thank you for your question. So as you referenced, we have taken several pricing actions starting last year and into the first part of this year on an ongoing basis across all regions and all family lines. So both motorcycles as well as Parts & Accessories and Apparel & Licensing. Those actions have largely offset the cost inflation that we are seeing this year. However, we continue to monitor that very closely to ensure that we are preserving our margin as much as possible through pricing actions. We also, of course, are monitoring price realization and understanding of where some of those metrics may be landing both domestically and internationally.

謝謝你的問題。正如您所提到的，我們從去年開始一直到今年上半年，在所有地區和所有家庭系列中持續採取了幾項定價行動。摩托車以及零件和配件以及服裝和許可都是如此。這些行動在很大程度上抵消了我們今年看到的成本膨脹。但是，我們將繼續密切關注這一點，以確保我們通過定價行動盡可能地保持我們的利潤。當然，我們也在監控價格實現情況，並了解其中一些指標可能在國內和國際上落地的位置。

As you say, we have used a mixture of MSRP as well as surcharges. We believe that this provides us flexibility. You will see that play out differently in different markets. But certainly, the combination of those 2 factors is something that we think provides, again, that flexibility to monitor the situation as we go throughout the year.

正如您所說，我們混合使用了建議零售價和附加費。我們相信這為我們提供了靈活性。你會看到在不同的市場中發揮不同的作用。但可以肯定的是，我們認為這兩個因素的結合再次提供了我們全年監測情況的靈活性。

To your second question around the dealer margin, I wouldn't like to comment on the specifics of sort of the economic terms between ourselves and our key partners that are our dealers in North America. I will say that for us a strong and healthy dealer network is an incredibly important part of the Hardwire strategy and on what we intend to do over the next few years. Dealer profitability is at near-record levels, which to us is great to see. And we intend to continue to partner with our dealers to continue to evolve the model of how we work together to best serve our customers over the course of Hardwire and beyond.

關於你關於經銷商利潤的第二個問題，我不想評論我們與我們在北美的經銷商的主要合作夥伴之間的經濟條款的具體細節。我會說，對我們來說，強大而健康的經銷商網絡是硬線戰略的一個非常重要的部分，也是我們未來幾年打算做的事情。經銷商的盈利能力接近創紀錄水平，這對我們來說很高興。我們打算繼續與我們的經銷商合作，繼續發展我們如何合作的模式，以便在 Hardwire 及以後的過程中為我們的客戶提供最佳服務。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Sundby from William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Ryan Sundby。

Gina, thanks for the color there on what the production schedule look like as we moved through the quarter. Could you flip that around maybe and talk about what the demand trends would look like during the quarter, I guess, particularly as we've seen gas prices move higher here in the last couple of months?

吉娜，感謝我們在本季度移動時生產計劃的顏色。我猜你能不能反過來談談本季度的需求趨勢，特別是在過去幾個月我們看到這裡的天然氣價格走高的情況下？

Sorry, Ryan, what was the last part of your question? You kind of faded out here. The demand trends.

抱歉，瑞恩，你問題的最後一部分是什麼？你在這裡有點淡了。需求趨勢。

Yes, sorry. Just with gas prices moving up here for the consumer, has that started to impact demand at all?

是的，對不起。只是隨著消費者的汽油價格上漲，這是否開始影響需求？

Yes. In short, no, we have not seen any of the kind of the current acute issues on inflation that are hitting consumers, impacting our demand. No, we're not seeing that. So yes, the biggest thing that impacted our shipments in Q1 was our ability to produce to the demand. So it wasn't a slowdown in any sense of the imagination and Edel can provide some more color commentary on what -- from a dealer lens, but it was all -- everything that you see in Q1 was our ability to produce.

是的。簡而言之，不，我們還沒有看到任何當前嚴重的通脹問題正在打擊消費者，影響我們的需求。不，我們沒有看到。所以是的，影響我們第一季度出貨量的最大因素是我們滿足需求的生產能力。所以這並不是想像中的放緩，Edel 可以提供更多色彩評論——從經銷商的角度來看，但就是這樣——你在第一季度看到的一切都是我們的生產能力。

Yes. Gina, maybe let me add to that and reiterate some of the points Jochen made earlier. I mean every dimension that we look at in terms of the data, preorders, price realization, the growth in demand in some of those key categories, Touring, Trike, Large Cruiser as well as the relative speed of the inventory turning at sort of unprecedented rates at more or less 2 weeks and that includes sort of shipments, all of those we find to be positive. Some of the other metrics that we look at to monitor demand, the used price gap versus new as well as even how many students are coming through Riding Academy are also very positive.

是的。 Gina，也許讓我補充一下，並重申 Jochen 早些時候提出的一些觀點。我的意思是我們從數據、預購、價格實現、一些關鍵類別（旅行車、三輪車、大型巡洋艦）的需求增長以及庫存以前所未有的速度轉變的相對速度方面來看的每一個維度或多或少 2 週的費率，其中包括一些發貨，我們發現所有這些都是積極的。我們用來監控需求的其他一些指標、二手價格與新的價格差距以及甚至有多少學生通過騎術學院也非常積極。

And then to the third factor that Gina referenced, the qualitative feedback that we get from our dealers, I think the consistent message, both in the U.S., in Canada and in other international markets is really around if we had more bikes, we could sell them. So I think that all of those factors contribute to giving us confidence in what we are seeing in terms of demand.

然後是 Gina 提到的第三個因素，我們從經銷商那裡得到的定性反饋，我認為一致的信息，無論是在美國、加拿大和其他國際市場，如果我們有更多的自行車，我們就可以銷售他們。因此，我認為所有這些因素都有助於讓我們對我們所看到的需求充滿信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Fred Wightman from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。

I just wanted to follow up on the comment about just that gap between new and used pricing and not something that you guys have been working on for a really long time. But as we think about whether it's later this year or into next year, how do you see that gap trending? Should we expect it to expand a little bit? Could there be a little bit more seasonality?

我只是想跟進關於新舊定價之間的差距的評論，而不是你們已經研究了很長時間的東西。但是當我們考慮是今年晚些時候還是明年，你如何看待這種差距趨勢？我們應該期望它擴大一點嗎？可以有更多的季節性嗎？

I would not expect -- Fred, this is Gina. I would not expect that gap to widen too dramatically as we move through, I would say, the next kind of balance of this year and next fiscal just given what is happening on the supply side. We've had '20 and now '21 and then 2022 just from what we've been able to produce in new is going to create good economics in the used market.

我沒想到——弗雷德，這是吉娜。鑑於供應方面正在發生的事情，我認為隨著我們度過今年和下一財年的下一種平衡，我不認為這種差距會急劇擴大。我們已經有了 20 年，現在是 21 年，然後是 2022 年，僅僅從我們能夠生產的新產品來看，這將在二手市場創造良好的經濟效益。

At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Shawn Collins for closing remarks.

在這個時候，我沒有再提出任何問題。我想將電話轉回給肖恩·柯林斯（Shawn Collins）以作結束語。

Great. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. And we hope you have a great day and, obviously, check in with us with any questions. Thanks.

偉大的。好的，謝謝大家加入今天的電話會議。我們希望您度過愉快的一天，當然，如有任何問題，請與我們聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。