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Operator
Operator
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's Highwoods Properties Q3 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Regan, and I'll be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions)
各位早安,感謝各位參加今天Highwoods Properties 2025年第三季財報電話會議。我叫雷根,今天我將擔任主持人。(操作說明)
I will now pass the conference over to our host, Brendan Maiorana, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed.
現在我將把會議交給我們的主持人,執行副總裁兼財務長布倫丹·馬約拉納。請繼續。
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call this morning are Ted Klinck, our Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Leary, our Chief Operating Officer.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的有我們的執行長 Ted Klinck 和我們的營運長 Brian Leary。
For your convenience, today's prepared remarks have been posted on the web. If you have not received yesterday's earnings release or supplemental, they're both available on the Investors section of our website at highwoods.com.
為了方便各位,今天的演講稿已發佈在網路上。如果您尚未收到昨天的收益報告或補充報告,您可以在我們網站 highwoods.com 的投資者關係部分找到它們。
On today's call, our review will include non-GAAP measures such as FFO, NOI and EBITDAre. The release and supplemental include a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.
在今天的電話會議上,我們的審查將包括 FFO、NOI 和 EBITDAre 等非 GAAP 指標。這份新聞稿和補充文件包含了這些非GAAP指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表。
Forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed at length in our press releases as well as our SEC filings. As you know, actual events and results can differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and the company does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements.
今天電話會議上所作出的前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性已在我們的新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了詳細討論。如您所知,實際事件和結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異,本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。
Finally, we know many of you will be attending NAREITâs Annual Conference in December in Dallas. We are hosting a property tour the afternoon of Monday, December 8, to showcase our Uptown Dallas portfolio. If any of you would like to join the tour, please let us know.
最後,我們知道你們中的許多人將參加 12 月在達拉斯舉行的 NAREIT 年度大會。我們將於12月8日星期一下午舉辦房產參觀活動,展示我們在達拉斯上城區的房產組合。如果你們中有人想參加這次旅行,請告訴我們。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Ted.
接下來,我將把電話交給泰德。
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Brendan, and good morning, everyone. We entered 2025 focused on the following strategic priorities: securing the embedded NOI growth potential in our operating portfolio by leasing up key vacancies, capturing the embedded NOI growth potential in our development pipeline by leasing up our four completed, but not yet stabilized assets; continuing our proven playbook of recycling out of noncore assets that are more CapEx-intensive into higher quality, higher growth and better located properties that have stronger long-term cash flows and maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet. We made meaningful progress on each of these priorities during the quarter, and believe we have opportunities to advance our progress even more significantly over the next few quarters.
謝謝你,布倫丹,大家早安。進入 2025 年,我們專注於以下戰略重點:透過出租關鍵空置物業,確保我們營運組合中蘊含的 NOI 成長潛力;透過出租我們已建成但尚未穩定的四個資產,獲取我們開發項目中蘊含的 NOI 增長潛力;繼續我們行之有效的戰略,將資本密集型的非核心資產回收,轉化為質量更高、更強勁的資產負債本季我們在各項優先事項上都取得了實質進展,我們相信在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們有機會在各項工作中取得更大進展。
First, our second-gen leasing volume was strong with several sizable new leases inked in what we call our [Core 4] operating properties that have elevated vacancy. Alliance Center in Atlanta, and Symphony Place, Park West and Westwood South, all located in Nashville.
首先,我們的第二代租賃量表現強勁,在我們稱之為 [核心 4] 營運物業(這些物業的空置率較高)中簽訂了幾份數額可觀的新租賃合約。亞特蘭大的聯盟中心,以及位於納許維爾的交響樂廣場、西園和西伍德南。
We signed over 1 million square feet of second-gen volume, including 326,000 square feet of new leases. Our leasing volumes have been strong now for eight consecutive quarters. These strong volumes have driven our leased rate 340 basis points higher than our occupancy rate at quarter end, which explains why we are so confident occupancy will rise by year-end 2025 and throughout 2026.
我們簽署了超過 100 萬平方英尺的第二代建築面積合同,其中包括 32.6 萬平方英尺的新租賃合約。我們的租賃量已經連續八個季度保持強勁成長。強勁的租賃量使得我們的租賃價格比季度末的入住率高出 340 個基點,這也解釋了為什麼我們如此有信心到 2025 年底和整個 2026 年入住率都會上升。
Back in February of this year, we stated that our Core 4 had approximately $25 million of stabilized NOI upside above our 2025 outlook. At quarter end, we have locked in over 50% of this upside with signed leases and have strong prospects to lock in another 25%.
今年二月,我們曾表示,我們的核心 4 項業務在 2025 年的預期基礎上,穩定淨營業收入 (NOI) 有約 2,500 萬美元的成長空間。截至季末,我們已透過簽署租賃協議鎖定了超過 50% 的收益,並且很有可能再鎖定 25%。
In addition to the strong volumes, pricing power is starting to improve as office users encounter a dwindling supply of high-quality space owned by well-capitalized landlords. This is demonstrated by growth in net effective rents, which hit a high watermark for us this quarter. We have long viewed net effective rents as the best indicator of underlying rent economics, which have been 18% higher over the trailing four quarters compared to our 2019 average.
除了強勁的交易量之外,隨著辦公用戶發現資金雄厚的房東擁有的優質辦公空間供應日益減少,定價權也開始增強。淨有效租金的成長證明了這一點,本季淨有效租金達到了我們公司歷史上的最高水準。我們一直認為淨有效租金是衡量潛在租金經濟狀況的最佳指標,過去四個季度的淨有效租金比 2019 年的平均值高出 18%。
Second, we signed 122,000 square feet of leases across our development pipeline, driving the lease percentage to 72%, up from 64% last quarter. This means we have now signed leases for over 70% of the $30 million stabilized annual future NOI growth potential from the four completed but not yet stabilized development properties. Plus, we have a strong pipeline of prospects to drive our lease percentage even higher over the next few quarters. We expect these properties will be a large driver of NOI growth in 2026 and 2027.
其次,我們在開發案中籤署了 122,000 平方英尺的租賃協議,使租賃率從上一季的 64% 提高到 72%。這意味著我們現在已經簽署了租賃協議,涵蓋了四個已建成但尚未穩定的開發項目未來每年 3000 萬美元穩定 NOI 成長潛力的 70% 以上。此外,我們還有大量潛在客戶,預計在未來幾季進一步提高我們的租賃比例。我們預計這些物業將成為 2026 年和 2027 年 NOI 成長的主要驅動力。
Third, we were active with investment activity as we acquired the Legacy Union parking garage in Charlotte's Uptown BBD for a total investment of $111.5 million and sold a noncore property in Richmond for $16 million. The Legacy Union Garage was funded on a leverage-neutral basis through a combination of noncore disposition proceeds, proceeds from common equity issuances via our ATM program and incremental borrowing. In the short time since the acquisition of the garage in August, we've signed a 16,000 square foot ground floor retail customer and secured 150 additional monthly parkers from a corporate user that is not a tenant in our legacy Union portfolio. Given limited CapEx associated with garage ownership and a weighted average contractual term of roughly nine years for 70% of our projected revenue, we believe our investment represents an excellent risk-adjusted return.
第三,我們在投資方面十分活躍,我們以 1.115 億美元的總投資收購了夏洛特市中心 BBD 的 Legacy Union 停車場,並以 1600 萬美元的價格出售了里士滿的一處非核心房產。Legacy Union Garage 的資金來源是槓桿中性的,資金來源包括非核心資產處置所得、透過我們的 ATM 計劃發行普通股所得以及新增借款。自 8 月收購該停車場以來,短短時間內,我們就簽下了一家 16,000 平方英尺的底層零售客戶,並從一家企業用戶那裡獲得了 150 個額外的月度停車位,該企業用戶並非我們原有 Union 投資組合中的租戶。鑑於與車庫所有權相關的資本支出有限,且我們預計收入的 70% 的加權平均合約期限約為九年,我們認為我們的投資代表了極佳的風險調整後回報。
Fourth and finally, our balance sheet is in great shape. During the quarter, we extended our only consolidated debt maturity prior to 2027, which gives us plenty of flexibility as we evaluate future investment opportunities that would significantly enhance our portfolio quality and BBD locations.
第四,也是最後一點,我們的資產負債表狀況良好。本季度,我們將唯一一筆在 2027 年之前到期的合併債務的到期日延長,這讓我們在評估未來投資機會時擁有了很大的靈活性,這些投資機會將顯著提高我們的投資組合質量和 BBD 位置。
Turning to the quarter, we delivered FFO of $0.86 per share. We have once again raised the midpoint of our FFO outlook, our third consecutive quarter increasing our 2025 outlook with the FFO midpoint now $0.08 higher than our initial outlook provided in February.
本季度,我們實現了每股0.86美元的FFO(營運資金)。我們再次上調了 FFO 預期中位數,這是我們連續第三個季度上調 2025 年預期,FFO 中位數目前比 2 月給出的初始預期高出 0.08 美元。
We also raised the midpoint of our same-property cash NOI outlook by 50 basis points, while our year-end occupancy outlook points to meaningful upside over the final three months of the year. In addition to updating our financial and operational outlook, we also updated our outlook for investment activity, which indicates the potential for meaningful asset recycling over the next few quarters.
我們同時將同店現金淨營業收入預期中位數上調了 50 個基點,而我們的年末入住率預期則表明,今年最後三個月入住率將有顯著上升空間。除了更新財務和營運展望外,我們還更新了投資活動展望,這表明未來幾季有可能進行有意義的資產再利用。
We've highlighted the potential of up to $500 million of both acquisitions and dispositions during the next few quarters. So far this year, we've acquired two properties, both of which are high-quality, well-located assets with significant long-term growth potential. These assets were both acquired off market at an estimated combined cash NOI yield around 8% after factoring in the upside from the recent leasing activity and additional monthly parkers at Legacy Union. We have a healthy pipeline of additional acquisition opportunities, coupled with numerous noncore properties in various stages of marketing for sale. With these asset recycling opportunities, we could make significant progress over the next several quarters with regard to further strengthening our portfolio quality, growth rate and cash flow, similar to other major asset rotations that we've completed during the last decade.
我們已經強調,未來幾季內,收購和處置的潛在金額可能高達 5 億美元。今年到目前為止,我們已經收購了兩處房產,這兩處房產都是高品質、地理位置優越的資產,具有巨大的長期成長潛力。這兩筆資產均以場外收購的方式購得,在計入近期租賃活動和 Legacy Union 新增月度停車位帶來的收益後,預計合併現金 NOI 收益率約為 8%。我們擁有充足的收購機會儲備,同時還有許多非核心資產處於不同的出售行銷階段。借助這些資產回收機會,我們可以在未來幾個季度內取得重大進展,進一步加強我們的投資組合品質、成長率和現金流,類似於我們在過去十年中完成的其他重大資產輪動。
To wrap up, we're extremely excited about the next few years for Highwoods. We expect to deliver strong embedded NOI growth from signed leases that haven't yet commenced across both our operating portfolio and development pipeline, and we have strong leasing prospects that could drive our future embedded growth even higher.
總而言之,我們對 Highwoods 未來幾年的發展感到無比興奮。我們預計,已簽署但尚未生效的租賃協議將為我們營運中的投資組合和開發項目帶來強勁的內含淨營業收入成長,而且我們擁有強勁的租賃前景,這可能會進一步推動我們未來的內含成長。
As signed leases convert into occupancy, we see a clear pathway to higher earnings and cash flow and meaningful value creation across our 26.5 million square foot portfolio. Further, we see additional opportunities to sell older nonstrategic properties where risk-adjusted returns don't meet our objectives and recycle that capital into high-growth assets in the BBDs of our markets at attractive risk-adjusted returns. With our proven playbook and a strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to execute on the opportunities ahead of us.
隨著已簽署的租賃協議轉化為實際入住,我們看到了提高收益和現金流以及在我們 2,650 萬平方英尺的投資組合中創造有意義價值的明確途徑。此外,我們也看到了出售一些老舊非策略性房產的機會,這些房產的風險調整收益未能達到我們的目標,我們將把這些資金重新投入到我們市場中 BBD 的高成長資產中,以獲得有吸引力的風險調整收益。憑藉我們行之有效的策略和穩健的資產負債表,我們已做好充分準備,把握未來的機會。
Brian?
布萊恩?
Brian Leary - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Brian Leary - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Our commute-worthy strategy centered on creating exceptional environments and experiences continues to differentiate Highwoods in a market constrained by a limited supply and a dearth of well-capitalized owners.
謝謝你,泰德,大家早安。感謝您的參與。我們以打造卓越的環境和體驗為核心的通勤友善策略,使 Highwoods 在供應有限、資金雄厚的業主稀缺的市場中脫穎而出。
This quarter, our team once again delivered strong results. We signed more than 100 leases while maintaining a robust leasing pipeline spanning early, mid- and late-stage prospects across our entire platform, most particularly in our Dallas, Tampa and Raleigh developments and our Highwood-tizing redevelopments in Nashville.
本季度,我們的團隊再次取得了優異的成績。我們簽署了 100 多份租賃協議,同時保持了強勁的租賃管道,涵蓋了我們整個平台上的早期、中期和後期項目,尤其是在達拉斯、坦帕和羅利的開發項目以及納許維爾的 Highwood 改造項目。
The quarter's achievements were notable. Net effective and GAAP rents reached new highs, while our 15.9% payback improved by 240 basis points relative to our five-quarter average. Average net effective rents hit a new quarterly high, led by strength in Dallas, Charlotte, Atlanta and Tampa. Our trailing 12-month average is now 18% above our pre-pandemic peak reached in 2019. GAAP rents were strong with an 18% increase compared to expiring rents at a record $40-plus per square foot. We ended the quarter 85.3% occupied and 88.7% leased, consistent with what we've long communicated as our occupancy trough. With a limited near-term expiration outlook and more than 325,000 square feet of new leases signed during the quarter, we're well positioned to grow occupancy from here.
本季的成績斐然。淨有效租金和 GAAP 租金均創歷史新高,而我們的 15.9% 的投資回收期比五個季度的平均值提高了 240 個基點。平均淨有效租金創下季度新高,其中達拉斯、夏洛特、亞特蘭大和坦帕的強勁表現帶動了這一增長。我們過去 12 個月的平均值比 2019 年疫情前的高峰高出 18%。GAAP租金表現強勁,較到期租金上漲18%,達到創紀錄的每平方英尺40美元以上。本季末,我們的入住率為 85.3%,出租率為 88.7%,這與我們長期以來所說的入住率低谷相符。由於近期到期租約有限,且本季新簽租約面積超過 325,000 平方英尺,我們有能力從現在開始提高入住率。
This quarter, once again, expansions outpaced contractions 4:1 this time. Year-to-date, we've signed 47 total expansions, outpacing our full year results each of the past two years and net expansions so far this year approximate 70,000 square feet, our highest year since before the pandemic. We also signed 122,000 square feet of first-generation leases in our development pipeline, lifting our lease percentage to 72%, up 800 basis points sequentially.
本季度,擴張速度再次超過收縮速度,這次是 4:1。今年迄今為止,我們已簽署了 47 項擴建協議,超過了過去兩年的全年業績,今年迄今為止的淨擴建面積約為 70,000 平方英尺,是疫情爆發以來最高的一年。我們還簽署了 122,000 平方英尺的第一代租賃協議,使我們的租賃率提高到 72%,環比增長 800 個基點。
While leasing momentum was balanced across our markets, Dallas, Nashville, Charlotte, and Tampa were standout performers. Let's start with Dallas, a market that continues to shine across our portfolio. Dallas is, in many ways, an overnight success that's been decades in the making. Once defined by energy, it's now one of the most diverse and dynamic economies in the country. The Dallas metro population is projected to grow nearly 50% over the next 25 years, and about 400 new residents are moving in every single day. For 20 consecutive years, Chief Executive Magazine has named Texas the best state for business and the Dallas Regional Chamber recently noted 10 major corporate and significant office using prospects are considering headquarter moves or large expansions.
雖然各市場的租賃動能均衡,但達拉斯、納許維爾、夏洛特和坦帕表現尤為突出。讓我們先從達拉斯說起,這個市場在我們投資組合中一直表現出色。從很多方面來看,達拉斯的成功並非一蹴可幾,而是經過了幾十年的醞釀。它曾經以能源為經濟支柱,如今已成為全國最多元化、最具活力的經濟體之一。預計未來 25 年達拉斯都會區的人口將增加近 50%,每天約有 400 名新居民遷入。《執行長》雜誌連續 20 年將德州評為最適合經商的州,達拉斯地區商會最近指出,有 10 家大型企業和重要的辦公場所潛在用戶正在考慮總部搬遷或大規模擴張。
That strength is showing up in the data. CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield both reported positive net absorption for the fourth straight quarter and both highlighted Uptown as the top submarket with regard to rate and demand. Our partnership with Granite Properties continues to perform exceptionally well. In Uptown, McKinney & Olive remains 99% occupied and our new 23Springs Tower, which opened this quarter has already reached 67% leased, up 500 basis points quarter-over-quarter with rents well above underwriting. Similar success is occurring at the Tollway at Granite Park 6, where our lease percentage has increased 1,000 basis points to 69%. We have strong prospects for both of these buildings that will bring the lease rate to the mid-70s or higher.
這種優勢在數據中有所體現。世邦魏理仕和高緯環球均報告稱,淨吸收量連續第四個季度為正值,並且都強調上城區是房價和需求方面最好的子市場。我們與 Granite Properties 的合作關係持續表現出色。在 Uptown,McKinney & Olive 的入住率仍然高達 99%,而我們本季開業的新 23Springs Tower 的出租率已經達到 67%,環比增長 500 個基點,租金遠高於承保水平。在 Granite Park 6 號收費公路也取得了類似的成功,我們的租賃比例增加了 1000 個基點,達到 69%。我們對這兩棟大樓的租賃前景充滿信心,預計租金將達到 70 美元中段甚至更高。
Moving to Nashville. It remains one of the most compelling and resilient markets in the Sunbelt. Unemployment sits at just 2.9%, the lowest among our markets and it's the epitome of an emerging landlord favorable market with the intersection of dwindling supply, increased inbound inquiries and a surging local economy. The construction pipeline has reached historical lows and nearly 12% of the downtown inventory, about 1.4 million square feet is being converted to hotel and residential uses. CBRE sums it up well. Landlords in Nashville now have considerable pricing power with asking rates up more than 11% year-over-year.
搬到納什維爾。它仍然是陽光地帶最具吸引力和韌性的市場之一。失業率僅為 2.9%,是所有市場中最低的,這完美地體現了新興的對房東有利的市場,其特點是供應減少、來電諮詢增加和當地經濟蓬勃發展。建設用地已降至歷史最低水平,市中心近 12% 的庫存(約 140 萬平方英尺)正在被改建為酒店和住宅用途。世邦魏理仕總結得很好。納許維爾的房東現在擁有相當大的定價權,要價年上漲超過 11%。
Our own portfolio mirrors that strength. Downtown at Symphony Place is now 70% leased or out for leased with another 20% in active negotiation. In Franklin, Park Place West is over 80% leased or out for lease. And Westwood South and Brentwood is progressing with solid mid-stage prospects for the entirety of the building. With over 100,000 square feet signed this quarter, our 5 million square foot Nashville portfolio continues to benefit from broad-based demand across all four of Nashville's core BBDs.
我們自身的投資組合也反映了這種優勢。市中心的 Symphony Place 目前已有 70% 的物業出租或待租,另有 20% 的物業正在積極洽談中。在富蘭克林,Park Place West 的出租率或招租率已超過 80%。Westwood South 和 Brentwood 的開發進展順利,整個建築的中期前景一片光明。本季簽約面積超過 10 萬平方英尺,我們位於納許維爾的 500 萬平方英尺物業組合繼續受益於納許維爾所有四個核心商業區 (BBD) 的廣泛需求。
In Charlotte, the same FIRE and TAMI industries fueling growth in Dallas and other major markets are driving strong demand for the best Class A space available. According to CBRE, leasing is up 77% year-over-year with 80% of that activity from new or expanding tenants, and there are 17 active prospects larger than 50,000 square feet in the market. Our 96% occupied portfolio and strong inbound activity validates these trends. With very little new supply, top-end rents continue to rise and the calculus for new development is becoming more viable. During the quarter, we signed 200,000 square feet in Charlotte with net effective rents over $30 a square foot, GAAP rents approaching $50 a square foot and a low 10% payback. Office using employment in Charlotte grew 3.4% year-over-year, reinforcing our confidence in the city's ongoing strength.
在夏洛特,與達拉斯和其他主要市場一樣,FIRE 和 TAMI 行業也在推動成長,進而帶動了對最好的 A 級辦公空間的強勁需求。據世邦魏理仕 (CBRE) 稱,租賃業務同比增長 77%,其中 80% 的租賃活動來自新租戶或現有租戶的擴張,目前市場上有 17 個面積超過 50,000 平方英尺的活躍潛在項目。我們96%的入住率和強勁的入境客流量驗證了這些趨勢。由於新增供應量極少,高端房租持續上漲,新開發案的可行性也越來越高。本季度,我們在夏洛特簽訂了 20 萬平方英尺的租賃合同,淨有效租金超過每平方英尺 30 美元,GAAP 租金接近每平方英尺 50 美元,投資回收期僅為 10%。夏洛特市的辦公就業人數年增 3.4%,這增強了我們對該市持續強勁發展的信心。
And finally, Tampa, where momentum continues to accelerate. CBRE reports six consecutive quarters of declining vacancy and the strongest absorption in years. With 1 million square feet of known move-ins ahead, the trend remains firmly positive. We signed 190,000 square feet of second-generation leases in Tampa this quarter, plus our Midtown East development doubled its lease percentage after signing 53,000 square feet of first-gen leases across two full floors with triple net rents in the mid-40s. With only a corner restaurant space and one last floor of office remaining, we couldn't be happier with where we are in Midtown Tampa.
最後是坦帕,那裡的發展勢頭仍在加速。世邦魏理仕報告稱,空置率連續六個季度下降,並創下多年來的最高吸收量。預計未來將有 100 萬平方英尺的房屋投入使用,這一趨勢仍然保持強勁的上升勢頭。本季我們在坦帕簽署了 19 萬平方英尺的第二代租賃協議,此外,我們在 Midtown East 的開發項目在簽署了兩層樓共 5.3 萬平方英尺的第一代租賃協議後,租賃率翻了一番,三淨租金在 40 美元左右。我們現在只剩下一個街角餐廳和最後一層辦公空間了,對於我們在坦帕市中心的現狀,我們感到無比滿意。
Across our diversified Sunbelt portfolio, we benefit from a broad tenant base, spanning industries, company sizes and geographies, anchoring in both urban and suburban BBDs. When you combine that diversification with our measured development activity, our continuous reinvestment in existing assets and our targeted acquisitions, the result is a portfolio built for resilience and sustained long-term growth. We're incredibly proud of how our team continues to execute market by market and building by building, delivering outcomes that reinforce the strength and momentum of the Highwoods value proposition.
在我們多元化的 Sunbelt 投資組合中,我們受益於廣泛的租戶基礎,涵蓋各個行業、公司規模和地理位置,主要集中在城市和郊區的商業區。將這種多元化與我們穩健的發展活動、對現有資產的持續再投資以及有針對性的收購相結合,就能打造出一個具有韌性和可持續長期增長潛力的投資組合。我們為團隊能夠持續在各個市場、各個樓宇間穩步推進,取得成果,從而鞏固 Highwoods 的價值主張和發展勢頭而感到無比自豪。
Brendan?
布蘭登?
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Thanks, Brian. In the third quarter, we delivered net income of $12.9 million or $0.12 per share and FFO of $94.8 million or $0.86 per share. The quarter was relatively clean without any notable unusual items. Our leasing metrics during the quarter were healthy with net effective rents the highest in our history. The strength in leasing economics, combined with the embedded NOI growth in our operating portfolio and development pipeline bodes well for our long-term cash flow outlook.
謝謝你,布萊恩。第三季度,我們實現淨收入 1,290 萬美元,即每股 0.12 美元;FFO 為 9,480 萬美元,即每股 0.86 美元。這個街區比較乾淨,沒有什麼特別不尋常的東西。本季我們的租賃指標表現良好,淨有效租金創歷史新高。租賃經濟效益強勁,加上我們營運組合和開發專案儲備中蘊含的淨營業收入成長,預示著我們長期現金流前景良好。
Cash flows during the quarter were impacted by the high expenditures of leasing capital ahead of our projected occupancy build. As leasing volumes normalize and NOI grows, we expect cash flow levels will improve significantly.
本季現金流受到租賃資本支出較高的影響,而租賃資本支出高於我們預期的入住率成長目標。隨著租賃量恢復正常,營業淨收入成長,我們預期現金流水準將顯著改善。
Our balance sheet remains in excellent shape. Our debt-to-EBITDAre was 6.4 times at quarter end. Similar to our cash flow outlook, we expect our debt-to-EBITDAre ratio will improve meaningfully as customers who signed but not yet commenced leases in our operating portfolio and development pipeline move into occupancy, which should result in higher NOI and higher EBITDA. All else being equal, these move-ins would reduce our debt-to-EBITDAre by 0.5 times.
我們的資產負債表依然保持良好狀態。截至季末,我們的負債與 EBITDA 比率為 6.4 倍。與我們的現金流展望類似,我們預計隨著已簽署但尚未開始在我們營運組合和開發項目中租賃的客戶入住,我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率將顯著改善,這將帶來更高的 NOI 和更高的 EBITDA。在其他條件相同的情況下,這些搬遷將使我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率降低 0.5 倍。
We currently have $625 million of available liquidity with only $96 million left to complete our development pipeline. During the quarter, we extended the maturity on our $200 million variable rate term loan from 2026 to 2031, leaving us no consolidated debt maturities until 2027. While we have no immediate refinancing requirements, we are closely monitoring the capital markets and may seek to raise capital opportunistically to derisk future needs.
我們目前有 6.25 億美元的可用流動資金,僅剩 9,600 萬美元即可完成我們的開發案。本季度,我們將 2 億美元的浮動利率定期貸款的到期日從 2026 年延長至 2031 年,這意味著我們在 2027 年之前沒有合併債務到期。雖然我們目前沒有立即進行再融資的需求,但我們正在密切關注資本市場,並可能伺機籌集資金,以降低未來需求的風險。
As Ted mentioned, we acquired the Legacy Union Garage during the third quarter for a total investment of $111.5 million, including near-term planned building improvements. We funded this acquisition on a leverage-neutral basis, mostly through $59 million of equity issuances via our ATM program since the beginning of the third quarter, plus some incremental borrowing and modest proceeds from noncore asset sales.
正如泰德所提到的,我們在第三季度收購了 Legacy Union 車庫,總投資額為 1.115 億美元,其中包括近期計劃的建築改造。我們以槓桿中性的方式為此次收購提供資金,主要透過自第三季初以來透過我們的 ATM 計劃發行的 5,900 萬美元股權,加上一些新增借款和出售非核心資產所得的少量收益。
As a reminder, during the first quarter, we acquired the Advance Auto Parts Tower for $138 million, also on a leverage-neutral basis, but match funded that transaction entirely with proceeds from a noncore portfolio sale in Tampa. Both of these transactions demonstrate our proven track record of creatively funding acquisitions on a leverage-neutral basis. This is what we mean by frequently saying we have multiple arrows in our quiver. Acquiring Advance Auto Parts Tower and the Legacy Union Parking Garage this year significantly improved our portfolio quality in BBD locations were immediately accretive to cash flow and roughly neutral to near-term FFO while providing long-term upside to these financial metrics.
提醒一下,在第一季度,我們以 1.38 億美元的價格收購了 Advance Auto Parts 大廈,同樣是在槓桿中性的基礎上進行的,但該交易的配套資金完全來自坦帕非核心投資組合出售所得。這兩筆交易都證明了我們在以槓桿中性方式進行創新收購融資方面擁有良好的業績記錄。這就是我們常說的「我們有很多應對之策」的意思。今年收購 Advance Auto Parts Tower 和 Legacy Union Parking Garage 顯著提高了我們在 BBD 地區的投資組合質量,立即增加了現金流,對近期 FFO 大致保持中性,同時為這些財務指標提供了長期增長空間。
As Ted mentioned, we updated our 2025 FFO outlook to $3.41 to $3.45 per share, which equates to a $0.02 increase at the midpoint. We added a year-end occupancy range to our outlook, which implies 70 basis points of occupancy growth at the midpoint during the final three months of the year and underpins our confidence in growing occupancy as we move into 2026.
正如 Ted 所提到的,我們將 2025 年 FFO 預期更新為每股 3.41 美元至 3.45 美元,其中點值增加了 0.02 美元。我們在展望中增加了年末入住率範圍,這意味著在年底最後三個月的中點,入住率將增加 70 個基點,這增強了我們對 2026 年入住率成長的信心。
Finally, as you know, we plan to provide our 2026 outlook in February when we release our fourth quarter results. In the interim, there are two items I would like to highlight. First, we will begin expensing interest on our investments in the 23Springs and Midtown East development projects by the end of Q1 '26. Second, as Ted mentioned, we have secured nearly 2/3 of the $55 million to $60 million of stabilized NOI growth potential across the Core 4 operating properties and are completed, but not yet stabilized developments through signed leases. All of these signed leases are projected to commence by the end of 3Q '26, which should create a positive NOI and earnings trajectory as we migrate throughout next year.
最後,如您所知,我們計劃在2月發布第四季度業績報告時,同時提供我們對2026年的展望。在此期間,我想重點強調兩件事。首先,我們將從 2026 年第一季末開始提列 23Springs 和 Midtown East 開發案投資的利息費用。其次,正如 Ted 所提到的,我們已經透過簽署租賃協議,確保了核心 4 個營運物業中 5500 萬至 6000 萬美元穩定 NOI 成長潛力的近三分之二,並且這些開發項目已經完成,但尚未穩定。所有這些已簽署的租賃協議預計將於 2026 年第三季末生效,隨著我們明年逐步推進,這將帶來積極的淨營業收入和收益成長。
Operator, we are now ready for questions.
操作員,我們現在可以接受提問了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Seth Bergey, Citi.
(操作說明)Seth Bergey,花旗銀行。
Seth Bergey - Analyst
Seth Bergey - Analyst
I guess just in kind of the outlook items, you noted the potential for increased acquisitions or dispositions, would those kind of take you into any new markets? Or where would you like to kind of increase your concentration into? Or would those reduce your exposure to any of your markets that you're currently in?
我想,在展望部分,您提到了增加收購或處置的可能性,這些是否會將您帶入任何新市場?或者,你更想在哪些方面集中精力?或者說,這些措施能否降低您目前所涉足的任何市場的風險敞口?
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Seth, thanks for the question. Yes. So the acquisition opportunities we're looking at right now, none of them are new markets. They would all be adding to existing holdings in our existing markets. So -- and the ranges we put out there, as with the capital markets opening up, we're starting to see more opportunities really across the risk and return spectrum. So bid-ask spread seems to be narrowing. So sellers are bringing high-quality assets to the market. So yes, so we're taking a look at various opportunities across that spectrum, all in our existing markets.
塞思,謝謝你的提問。是的。因此,我們目前正在考慮的收購機會,都不是針對新市場。它們都將增加我們在現有市場中的現有持股。所以——隨著資本市場的開放,我們開始看到風險和回報範圍方面出現了更多機會。因此,買賣價差似乎正在收窄。因此,賣家正在將優質資產推向市場。是的,我們正在考察各個領域的各種機會,所有這些都在我們現有的市場中。
And then on the dispose side, I think right now, we have -- we've closed year-to-date $168 million. That includes a small $7 million asset that closed after quarter end. And we've got several other assets in the market. I think we're going to close a couple next week even that the buyer is hard on and maybe even a few extra -- a few other deals by the end of the year and then a few will leak into early next year.
而在處置方面,我認為目前我們已經完成了——今年迄今的處置額為 1.68 億美元。其中包括季度末後完成的一筆價值 700 萬美元的小額資產。我們還有其他幾項資產在市場上。我認為我們下週會完成幾筆交易,即使買家態度強硬,甚至可能還會多完成幾筆——年底前再完成幾筆交易,然後明年年初還會有幾筆交易完成。
And I think we have assets on the market in all of our markets with the exception of Charlotte and Dallas. So it's really just trimming the noncore assets across our portfolio. And I think you know we've been a regular seller of assets over the years. So I think we're just continuing the portfolio rotation that we've been doing for many years.
我認為,除了夏洛特和達拉斯之外,我們在所有其他市場都有資產在售。所以其實就是削減我們投資組合中的非核心資產。我想您也知道,多年來我們一直是資產的定期出售者。所以我認為我們只是在延續多年來一直在進行的投資組合輪動。
Seth Bergey - Analyst
Seth Bergey - Analyst
Great. And then just on financing assets, any potential acquisitions, would you look to do more on the ATM? Or would you primarily fund those through other dispositions?
偉大的。那麼,就資產融資、任何潛在的收購而言,您會考慮在 ATM 上進行更多操作嗎?或者您會主要透過其他方式為這些項目提供資金?
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Seth, it's Brendan. I think plan A would be recycling capital with disposition proceeds used to fund acquisitions or new investments. But I would say there's -- we've done both so far this year. So we funded the Advance Auto Parts Tower with a rotation of capital from disposition proceeds. We funded the garage in Charlotte on a leverage-neutral basis, primarily through ATM issuance. So I think both are available, but I would say that our plan A would be use disposition proceeds. And given where the share price is now, the equity currency really isn't competitive. So I think disposition proceeds are most likely.
塞思,我是布倫丹。我認為方案 A 是將資本循環利用,以處置所得資金進行收購或新的投資。但我想說的是——我們今年到目前為止都做到了。因此,我們利用處置所得資金的循環利用,為 Advance Auto Parts 大樓提供了資金。我們以槓桿中性的方式為夏洛特的車庫提供資金,主要透過發行 ATM 卡來實現。所以我認為兩種方案都可行,但我認為我們的首選方案是利用處置所得款項。鑑於目前的股價水平,股票貨幣確實不具備競爭力。所以我認為最有可能獲得處置收益。
Operator
Operator
Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.
Blaine Heck,富國銀行。
Blaine Heck - Analyst
Blaine Heck - Analyst
It seems as though during the pandemic, we saw Atlanta benefit a lot from tenant migration from other markets. But in your prepared remarks, it struck me like maybe Dallas was leading in that trend at this point. So I was hoping you could just give us an update on which markets are benefiting most from migration from other markets and whether the level of that activity has changed significantly in any of your specific markets?
疫情期間,亞特蘭大似乎從其他市場的租戶遷入中獲益良多。但從你事先準備好的演講稿來看,我覺得達拉斯目前可能正引領著這個趨勢。所以我想請您介紹哪些市場從其他市場的移民中受益最多,以及在您負責的特定市場中,這種移民活動的水平是否發生了顯著變化?
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure, Blaine. Thanks for the question. No, I think you're right. Based on Brian's comments, it's really Dallas is seeing a significant amount of in-migration that Brian alluded to 10 significant office requirements that the Raleigh -- the Dallas Chamber is working on right now. That may be down to nine now given the recent announcement of Scotiabank putting a pretty big presence in Dallas, which Dallas won that requirement from Charlotte. So Dallas is incredibly busy right now, a lot of new requirements.
當然可以,布萊恩。謝謝你的提問。不,我覺得你是對的。根據布萊恩的評論,達拉斯確實正在經歷大量的人口遷入,布萊恩還提到了羅利-達拉斯商會目前正在努力解決的 10 個重要的辦公室需求。鑑於加拿大豐業銀行最近宣布將在達拉斯設立相當大的業務,達拉斯從夏洛特手中贏得了這一席位,現在這個數字可能已經降到了九個。所以達拉斯現在非常忙碌,有很多新的需求。
Charlotte, I'd say, is right behind. Brian alluded to 17 office requirements that are greater than 50,000 feet. Most recently, there's a news article yesterday about Pacific Mutual, 300-and-something jobs, high-paying jobs, I think averaged like $179,000 per job. So Charlotte has been incredibly busy.
我認為夏洛特緊隨其後。布萊恩提到了 17 項辦公需求,這些需求都大於 50,000 英尺。最近,昨天有一篇關於太平洋互助保險公司的新聞報道,該公司提供了 300 多個高薪職位,平均每個職位的年薪約為 179,000 美元。所以夏洛特一直非常忙碌。
Right behind that is Nashville. We actually had our Board meeting in Nashville last week. And at the Board dinner, we brought both the economic development person for the Chamber of Commerce as well as the state-wide economic development person. They spoke to our Board and they basically said they're as busy as they've been in a long time. So from the office perspective. So I feel really good there.
緊隨其後的是納許維爾。實際上,我們上週在納許維爾召開了董事會。在董事會晚宴上,我們邀請了商會的經濟發展負責人和全州經濟發展負責人。他們與我們的董事會進行了溝通,董事會基本上表示,他們已經很久沒有這麼忙了。所以,從辦公室的角度來看。所以我感覺在那裡真的很好。
Raleigh is busy. The North Carolina economic development folks are actually in our headquarters building here in Raleigh. So we see them quite a bit. And the office requirements are picking up in Raleigh as well. There's been a couple of good announcements in Atlanta as well. Tampa, we just got somebody from a new out-of-state requirement in one of our buildings. So really, we're seeing it across our footprint. The in-migration is really -- it seems to be accelerating.
羅利很繁忙。北卡羅來納州經濟發展部門的人員實際上就在我們位於羅利市的總部大樓裡。所以我們常常見到他們。羅利市的辦公需求也在增加。亞特蘭大也傳來了一些好消息。坦帕,我們一棟大樓裡剛來了一位來自外州的新員工。所以實際上,我們在我們業務覆蓋的各個區域都看到了這種情況。人口遷入似乎正在加速。
Brian Leary - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Brian Leary - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Blaine, Brian here. One thing I might add is where they're coming from, still usual suspects, California, Midwest and Northeast, but we're also seeing some international inbounds putting a toehold here in the states in these markets and growing.
布萊恩,我是布萊恩。我還要補充一點,他們的來源地仍然是常見的加州、中西部和東北部地區,但我們也看到一些國際移民在這些市場站穩腳跟並不斷發展壯大。
Blaine Heck - Analyst
Blaine Heck - Analyst
Great. Second question, Brendan, you guys are clearly going through a period of elevated leasing activity. And with that comes elevated CapEx, which you touched on in your remarks. I guess how long should we kind of expect these elevated capital expenditures to impact AFFO or FAD or cash flow? And related to that, anything you can say just to touch on your or the Board's comfort with the dividend level here would be helpful.
偉大的。第二個問題,Brendan,你們顯然正處於租賃活動活躍期。隨之而來的是資本支出的增加,您在發言中也提到了這一點。我想我們應該預期這些增加的資本支出會對 AFFO、FAD 或現金流產生多長時間的影響?另外,如果您能談談您或董事會對當前股息水平的看法,那就太好了。
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Yes. Good question, Blaine. I think it probably depends on how long we think the occupancy build goes for. So I think it's clear that we would expect elevated levels of CapEx kind of through next year as we've got kind of the signed, but not yet commenced leases as you spend that capital. We've spent some of it already, but we're certainly planning on spending that as we migrate throughout 2026. But I think we are optimistic that our leasing pipeline is full, and we're going to kind of refill that signed but not yet commenced bucket of future customers, which will carry with it a high level of CapEx or an elevated level of CapEx. So I think we're optimistic that that occupancy build is going to continue throughout 2027, which means in all likelihood, you're going to have higher leasing capital in not only just next year, but in '27 as well. But what I would say to that is, I think if you look year-to-date, our leasing capital, we're probably trending $40 million sort of above what's a normalized year.
是的。問得好,布萊恩。我認為這可能取決於我們預計入住建設需要多長時間。所以我認為很明顯,隨著租賃合約的簽署(但尚未開始執行),以及資金的支出,我們預計明年資本支出水準將保持在較高水準。我們已經花掉了一部分,但我們肯定會在 2026 年的遷移過程中繼續花掉這筆錢。但我認為我們對租賃業務的前景持樂觀態度,我們將重新填補那些已簽約但尚未開始的潛在客戶的空缺,這將帶來較高的資本支出或更高的資本支出水平。所以我認為我們樂觀地認為,入住率的成長將持續到 2027 年,這意味著,不僅明年,而且 2027 年,租賃資本很可能會更高。但我想說的是,如果你看一下今年迄今為止的租賃資本,我們可能會比正常年份高出 4000 萬美元左右。
And we're doing -- cash flow is low, but it's not -- it's still reasonable. We've got a lot of NOI growth. So even if you assume that leasing capital remains high, there's a lot of NOI growth that will come online next year and into early '27. So I think just from the NOI growth coming online, cash flow levels are going to improve. And then as you have leasing costs normalize, they're going to improve even more. So I think we see a really clear pathway to very strong cash flow growth over the next several years, but there are a few legs to kind of -- or a few steps to kind of get to, to be there. But hopefully, leasing will continue to be strong and leasing CapEx will probably remain elevated for the next couple of years.
我們現在的情況是──現金流雖然低,但還算合理。我們的營業淨收入成長非常顯著。因此,即使假設租賃資本仍然很高,明年到 2027 年初仍將有許多 NOI 成長上線。所以我認為,隨著營業淨收入的成長,現金流水準將會改善。隨著租賃成本趨於正常化,情況將會進一步改善。所以我認為,未來幾年我們將有非常清晰的路徑來實現強勁的現金流成長,但要達到這個目標,還需要經歷幾個階段——或者說需要邁出幾個步驟。但希望租賃業務能夠繼續保持強勁勢頭,未來幾年租賃資本支出可能會維持在高位。
Operator
Operator
Rob Stevenson, Janney Montgomery Scott.
羅布·史蒂文森,珍妮·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。
Robert Stevenson - Analyst
Robert Stevenson - Analyst
Brendan, what drives the $0.04 gap in the fourth quarter earnings guidance? What swings to the high and low ends variable-wise?
布倫丹,是什麼原因導致第四季獲利預期出現 0.04 美元的差距?哪些變數的波動幅度較大,容易出現高低波動?
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Yes. Rob, I would say -- I mean, there's a little bit of discretion around expenses. And those can be volatile quarter-to-quarter when you recognize kind of the reimbursements on a normalized level kind of ratably throughout the year.
是的。羅布,我想說──我的意思是,在開支方面有一定的自主權。而且,當你把報銷款項按正常水平逐年計算時,這些款項可能會出現季度間的波動。
So I would say the biggest swing factor in terms of kind of normalized in that range is probably some discretionary expense spend. So that probably kind of moved it, you would say, on a couple of pennies on either side.
所以我認為,在這個範圍內,影響最大的因素可能是可自由支配的支出。所以,可以說,這大概讓比數左右移動了幾分錢。
And then we always bake in a little bit of something here or there. So you never know, we factor in some bad debts. Those could be at the high end of the range or they could be 0. So that kind of moves things around.
然後我們總是會在烘焙中加入一點其他的東西。所以,凡事皆有可能,我們會將一些壞帳考慮在內。這些值可能處於範圍的高端,也可能為 0。這樣一來,事情的走向就改變了。
And then to the extent that anything other unusual happens, usually just bake a little bit that's in there. But I would say from a leasing perspective, there's really not a lot of spec leasing that's going to drive revenue substantially higher or lower based in the forecast.
如果發生其他異常情況,通常只要把裡面剩下的東西稍微烤一下就行了。但從租賃的角度來看,我認為並沒有太多投機性租賃會根據預測大幅推高或推低收入。
Robert Stevenson - Analyst
Robert Stevenson - Analyst
Okay. And then the commentary that you made looking out to next year with the Core 4 leasing, does the occupancy there hit relatively ratably? Or there are certain quarters where there's a couple of big leases that hit that will really spike occupancy as we start thinking about the volatility of the occupancy number going forward?
好的。那麼,您之前對明年Core 4的租賃情況發表了評論,那裡的入住率是否相對穩定?或者說,在某些季度,會有幾份大額租賃合約生效,從而真正推高入住率,因為我們開始考慮未來入住率的波動性?
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Yes. I would say that it's pretty ratable from a build from Q2 through Q4. I think Q1, there's a little bit -- we typically kind of go down a little bit in terms of occupancy in Q1 just on normal seasonal factors. And then I think if you -- if we go through some of the biggest kind of expirations that we have, they tend to be early in the year. Most of those are backfilled, but you've got downtime on those. So we've got a large lease in Dallas that's going to go from M&O, there's going to be downtime there. It is substantially backfilled -- so that's large leases kick in second quarter and then a little bit in third quarter. So I think you'll probably see occupancy dip a little bit in Q1 from where it was at year-end '26, not -- I wouldn't say it's a huge amount. And then I think from Q2 to the end of the year, we think there's a pretty substantial increase from there.
是的。我認為從第二季度到第四季度,它的表現相當不錯。我認為第一季入住率通常會略有下降——這主要是由於正常的季節性因素造成的。然後我認為,如果我們經歷一些最大規模的到期事件,它們往往發生在年初。大部分空缺都會被填補,但這些空缺會有空檔期。我們在達拉斯有一份大型租賃合同,由於維護和營運問題,將會有一段時間無法正常運作。大部分租約已經簽訂完畢——所以大宗租約將在第二季生效,然後第三季也會有一些租約生效。所以我認為第一季的入住率可能會比 2026 年底略有下降,但——我不會說下降幅度很大。然後我認為從第二季到年底,我們將迎來相當大的成長。
Robert Stevenson - Analyst
Robert Stevenson - Analyst
Okay. That's very helpful. And then lastly, Ted, given the positive market comments around the portfolio that both you and Brian made earlier, can you talk about the Pittsburgh market and how close you may be getting there to the right time to exit some or all of those assets?
好的。那很有幫助。最後,Ted,鑑於你和Brian之前都對投資組合發表了積極的市場評論,你能談談匹茲堡市場以及你離退出部分或全部資產的合適時機還有多遠嗎?
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Every quarter, the capital markets have been getting better for the last two or three quarters. So we have regular dialogue with our adviser on those assets. And certainly, we're going to bring those to market when the time is right. Rob, I don't think we're quite there yet.
當然。過去兩三個季度,資本市場每季都在好轉。因此,我們會定期與顧問就這些資產進行溝通。當然,時機成熟時,我們會將這些產品推向市場。羅布,我覺得我們還沒完全達到目標。
But certainly, I think over the next couple of quarters, we may come to a decision point. Leasing velocity is really good and combine that with capital markets improving, I think we're getting closer.
但我認為,在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們可能會迎來一個決定性的節點。租賃市場發展勢頭良好,再加上資本市場的改善,我認為我們正在朝著目標邁進。
Operator
Operator
Nick Thillman, Baird.
Nick Thillman,Baird。
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
Brendan, you have been messaging sort of this ramp-up in occupancy 100 to 200 basis points throughout '26. Just wanted to double check on your comfort level there. And then the underpinning assumptions, is that similar leasing volume of this 300,000 square feet of new deals plus 50% retention, and that's how we get there. Is that the math? Just kind of -- just walk us through sort of that setup there.
布倫丹,你一直在傳達這樣的訊息:2026 年入住率將提高 100 到 200 個基點。只是想再次確認你在那裡是否感到舒適。然後,其基本假設是,30萬平方英尺的新租賃交易量與50%的新交易量相當,再加上50%的續租率,這就是我們實現目標的方式。這就是計算方法嗎?就簡單介紹一下那個設定過程吧。
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Yes. Nick, thanks for the question. Yes. So just to reiterate, I think last quarter, we talked about -- we thought we'd sort of be around 86% for year-end '25. We put that outlook in -- we formalized that in the outlook last night in terms of there, so right around 86%.
是的。尼克,謝謝你的提問。是的。所以再次重申一下,我認為上個季度我們討論過——我們認為到 2025 年底,我們的完成率會達到 86% 左右。我們已經把這個前景——我們昨晚在前景中正式確定了這一點,所以大概在 86% 左右。
And then yes, I think as we sit here late in '25, haven't given '26 guidance yet, but I think that 100 to 200 basis points of increase between year-end '25 to year-end '26, I think we're comfortable with that as we stand here now. Now, we'll sharpen our pencil and kind of look at those assumptions and provide formal guidance in February. But I think as we sit here, I think we feel comfortable with that kind of outlook and believe we've got a good pathway of growth between year-end '25 and year-end '26.
是的,我認為,雖然現在已經是 2025 年末了,還沒有給出 2026 年的業績指引,但我認為,從 2025 年底到 2026 年底,增長 100 到 200 個基點,就我們目前的情況來看,是可以接受的。現在,我們將仔細審視這些假設,並在二月提供正式指導。但我認為,就我們目前的情況來看,我們對這種前景感到滿意,並且相信我們在 2025 年底到 2026 年底之間有一條良好的成長道路。
And then I would say, in rough numbers, I think that's about right in terms of there's probably around 50% retention. That number always goes down the closer you get to kind of those expirations. So it might be mid-40s as it stands now. But I think if we can do 300,000 square feet of new a quarter and we're kind of at the retention levels that we've -- in that level, that's going to put us in position to be between 87%, 88% by year-end '26.
然後,粗略估計一下,我認為留存率大概是 50% 左右。隨著到期日的臨近,這個數字總是會下降。所以照目前的情況來看,可能是40多歲。但我認為,如果我們每季能新增 30 萬平方英尺的建築面積,而我們的客戶留存率能維持在目前的水平,那麼到 2026 年底,我們的留存率就能達到 87% 到 88%。
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
That's helpful. And then, Ted, with the leasing volume remaining healthy here, on the acquisitions, what's the appetite for lease-up risk on sort of the pool of assets you're looking at? And along those lines, as we think about the earnings impact of selling versus buying, are you -- is this FFO dilutive, neutral? How should we think about that?
那很有幫助。那麼,Ted,鑑於目前的租賃量依然健康,在收購方面,您對您正在關注的資產池的租賃風險承受能力如何?由此看來,當我們考慮賣出與買入對收益的影響時,您認為——這會稀釋 FFO 還是保持中性?我們該如何看待這個問題?
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, great question. Maybe I'll start and Brendan can chime in. Look, we look at everything across the risk return spectrum, and we will absolutely take leasing risk -- that's been our playbook coming out of the GFC. And we will do so in instances where we feel very comfortable about the leasing prospects, the momentum in the market and if we think we can lease it up and get paid for that lease-up risk, more importantly, right? So we are absolutely looking at assets that have vacancy risk that we can come in and add the Highwood-tizing and lease those up and get paid for it.
是的,問得好。或許我可以先開始,然後布倫丹可以插話。你看,我們會考慮風險回報範圍內的所有因素,我們絕對會承擔租賃風險——這是我們從全球金融危機中走出來後一直奉行的策略。我們會在對租賃前景、市場勢頭感到非常有信心的情況下這樣做,更重要的是,如果我們認為我們可以出租並獲得出租風險的回報,對吧?因此,我們絕對會關注那些有空置風險的資產,我們可以對其進行改造升級,將其出租並獲得收益。
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Brendan Maiorana - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President - Finance, Treasurer
Yes. Nick, just in terms of the earnings impact, there's obviously a lot of balls in the air. There's a lot of variables. That likely means that things are going to be kind of -- could potentially be noisy sort of quarter-to-quarter.
是的。尼克,就收益影響而言,顯然有很多不確定因素。影響因素很多。這可能意味著,每季的情況可能會比較混亂。
I think the best way that we could probably frame this is -- if we go back to some of the other large kind of asset rotations that we've done, so think about the market rotation plan where we went into Charlotte, exited Memphis and Greensboro or the portfolio of office assets that we acquired from PAC and then subsequently sold a bunch of noncore.
我認為我們能想到的最好解釋方式是——如果我們回顧一下我們之前進行的一些大型資產輪動,比如我們進入夏洛特、退出孟菲斯和格林斯伯勒的市場輪動計劃,或者我們從 PAC 收購的辦公資產組合,然後隨後出售了一批非核心資產。
I think what we told you is if you sort of give us a year, the unaffected FFO -- the FFO run rate should be unaffected from where it is pre all of those transactions. And our cash flow should be higher, and we will return our leverage to the normalized kind of glide path. So there's obviously a lot of timing. So if dispositions happen first versus acquisitions, that likely impacts it. There's some lease-up stuff that's there. But I think we feel pretty confident that if we're able to do things on a leverage-neutral basis, that long-term FFO outlook is probably going to be unchanged. Cash flow is going to be higher. Leverage is probably unchanged, and we certainly think that there will be an uptick in terms of long-term growth rate and portfolio quality.
我認為我們告訴你們的是,如果給我們一年的時間,未受影響的FFO(即FFO運行率)應該不會受到所有這些交易的影響。我們的現金流應該會更高,我們的槓桿率也將恢復到正常的成長軌道上。所以,顯然時機把握非常重要。因此,如果資產處置先於收購發生,則可能會對其產生影響。那裡有一些租賃相關的事宜。但我認為我們相當有信心,如果我們能夠以槓桿中性的方式開展業務,那麼長期的FFO前景可能不會改變。現金流將會更高。槓桿率可能不會改變,我們當然認為長期成長率和投資組合品質將會上升。
Operator
Operator
Dylan Burzinski, Green Street.
迪倫·布爾津斯基,格林街。
Dylan Burzinski - Analyst
Dylan Burzinski - Analyst
Ted, I think you mentioned that the capital markets environment continues to improve as we progress throughout 2025. But can you kind of just talk about sort of where for assets that you have sold, where pricing expectations have come in relative to your initial expectations?
泰德,我想你提到過,隨著我們進入2025年,資本市場環境將持續改善。您能否談談您已售資產的定價預期與您最初的預期相比如何?
And maybe if you can follow that up with just any sort of color or detail around bidding tense. Are we starting to see more institutional capital come back? Or is it still, for the large part, mostly high net worth family office type money looking at the office space today?
或許你可以接著加入一些關於競價時態的顏色或細節。我們是否開始看到更多機構資本回歸?或者說,如今關注辦公空間的仍是高淨值家族辦公室類型的資金嗎?
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. First, on the pricing on the dispositions, and Dylan, it's all over the board. I mean, sort of what we're selling today, it's a mix of long-term single tenant with long weighted average lease term to land to lower occupied assets to some of our older assets that are going to have a higher cap rate. So -- but I would tell you, pricing is all over the board. But in general, our pricing is, I would say, meeting or exceeding our expectations of when we -- when we initially took the assets out to market. So the bidder pools are a little deeper.
當然。首先,關於處置定價,還有迪倫,價格五花八門。我的意思是,我們現在銷售的資產,大致包括長期單一租戶、加權平均租期較長的土地、入住率較低的資產,以及一些資本化率較高的老舊資產。所以——但我必須告訴你,價格差異很大。但總的來說,我認為我們的定價達到了甚至超過了我們最初將這些資產推向市場時的預期。因此,競標者群體也更龐大一些。
And the buyers, if you go back two or three years, we didn't recognize a lot of the buyers on the bid sheets. We're now starting to recognize the buyers on the bid sheets, so more familiar capital. Certainly, the debt capital markets are helping, I think, on pricing as they've gotten better, whether it be CMBS, the debt funds, you're starting to see some of the banks get more active as well. So just in general, more -- there's more liquidity in the capital markets today, and that's starting to help on pricing.
如果回顧兩三年前,我們會發現投標書上有很多買家我們都不認識。我們現在開始認出投標書上的買家了,也就是更熟悉的資本。當然,我認為債務資本市場對定價有所幫助,因為它們已經變得更好了,無論是商業抵押貸款支持證券(CMBS)還是債務基金,你也開始看到一些銀行變得更加活躍。總的來說,如今資本市場的流動性更強了,這開始對定價有所幫助。
With regard to the acquisitions, look, I do think there's more institutional capital coming making bids. It seems like from what we hear from the brokers, there's more bids on every deal, every subsequent deal that comes out to market. So I think there's been a lot of capital that if you go back a couple of quarters, they were office curious, and now they're getting more active and really constructive on underwriting office acquisitions. So I think that is just going to help get this capital markets flywheel turning even more and which is going to be helpful for the office sector.
至於收購方面,我認為會有更多機構資本參與競購。從經紀人那裡我們所了解的情況來看,似乎每筆交易,以及之後每一筆進入市場的交易,都會有更多的競標。所以我認為,過去幾個季度以來,有很多資本湧入,他們對辦公大樓很感興趣,而現在他們在承銷辦公大樓收購方面變得更加積極和建設性。所以我認為這將有助於進一步推動資本市場飛輪運轉,這對辦公大樓產業來說是有益的。
Dylan Burzinski - Analyst
Dylan Burzinski - Analyst
And then maybe one more, if I could. Just -- I know you guys are constantly turning the portfolio and selling noncore assets and reallocating that capital. But I guess as you look at the portfolio today, I mean, is there some percentage of it that you would sort of deem as noncore or that you have interest in disposing of over time?
如果可以的話,也許還會再來一個。我知道你們一直在調整投資組合,出售非核心資產,並重新配置資金。但我想,當你審視今天的投資組合時,我的意思是,其中是否有一部分你會認為是非核心資產,或者你打算隨著時間的推移將其處置掉?
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We often get asked that, and it's really just a continuous portfolio improvement. For us as we buy new assets, fund them with dispositions or sort of pulling from the bottom of the assets. So -- and what I would tell you is what was core or noncore a few years or core a few years ago, it might be noncore today just as a result of growth trends or where we think the long-term growth rate maybe is not what it was a few years ago. So we're always evaluating our portfolio. We do it a couple of times a year as a management team and always reevaluating.
我們常被問到這個問題,其實這只是一個持續改善投資組合的過程。對我們來說,當我們購買新資產時,我們會透過處置資產或從資產底部提取資金來為其提供資金。所以——我想告訴你們的是,幾年前的核心業務或非核心業務,或者幾年前的核心業務,今天可能就變成了非核心業務,這僅僅是因為增長趨勢的變化,或者我們認為長期增長率可能不如幾年前了。所以我們一直在評估我們的投資組合。我們管理團隊每年都會進行幾次這樣的評估,並且會不斷重新評估。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.
(操作說明)羅納德‧卡姆登,摩根士丹利。
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Just two quick ones. Clearly, the capital recycling is pretty imminent, says in the next sort of six months. Just curious in terms of just markets, are these all sort of existing markets? Any new markets in there? And just remind us what markets you like to lean into, whether it's Dallas, Atlanta, just what stands out?
就兩個簡單的問題。顯然,資本循環將在未來六個月左右迫在眉睫。我只是好奇,就市場而言,這些都是現有的市場嗎?那裡有新的市場嗎?請您提醒我們一下,您比較關注哪些市場,例如達拉斯、亞特蘭大,或是其他哪些市場比較突出?
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure, Ron. Yes, you must have missed the early part of the call. We had the same question. So really, it's what we're looking at now, we're pretty happy with our footprint. And so we're going to -- we're looking at assets that are in our existing footprint that would upgrade the portfolio. So I don't think we've got any market -- our core markets that we wouldn't add to if the right opportunity comes in. But -- so we're looking at stuff really across our entire existing platform.
當然可以,羅恩。是的,你肯定錯過了通話的前半部。我們也有同樣的疑問。所以說,這就是我們現在關注的重點,我們對目前的規模相當滿意。因此,我們將—我們正在考察我們現有業務範圍內的資產,以升級我們的投資組合。所以我認為,如果出現適當的機遇,我們沒有任何不會拓展的核心市場。但是——所以我們實際上是在審視我們整個現有平台上的各種事情。
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Great. And then my second question is just on an update on Ovation. I know you guys are not looking to do any sort of M&A development and so forth. But just current thinking there, sort of excitement, could that be at '26, '27? Just what the timing could be on that and what the thoughts are?
偉大的。我的第二個問題是關於 Ovation 的最新進展。我知道你們並不打算進行任何併購開發之類的活動。但就目前的想法而言,大家有點興奮,這會不會是 2026 年、2027 年呢?具體時間安排如何?大家有什麼想法?
Brian Leary - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Brian Leary - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Ron, thanks for tossing one over the plate. This is Brian on Ovation. So we now have control over the entire site. So for a number of years, we were counting on others to deliver the placemaking part of that, the core of the community. So we stepped up over the last few years to kind of take our fate into our hands, and we went through an exercise with the city of Franklin to get it completely kind of re-entitled in a more integrated mixed-use way that actually got us some additional residential density to go into this vibrant mixed-use place.
羅恩,謝謝你把球投過本壘板。這是布萊恩在Ovation電台的節目。現在我們已經控制了整個網站。因此,多年來,我們一直指望其他人來完成社區營造的核心部分。因此,在過去的幾年裡,我們開始積極主動地掌握自己的命運,並與富蘭克林市合作,以更全面的混合用途方式重新規劃土地用途,這實際上為我們帶來了額外的住宅密度,使這個充滿活力的混合用途場所更加繁榮。
We have the right retail and multiple-use partners kind of being lined up. We've been in front of the prospects who would come in and open shops and restaurants, and it's been really warmly received. Nashville has very much shown up on every market for a retailer, fashion label. And so we feel like we're timing it right. Things are lining up well.
我們已經基本敲定了合適的零售和多用途合作夥伴。我們已經接待了有意前來開設商店和餐廳的潛在客戶,他們的反應非常熱烈。納許維爾在零售商和時尚品牌的各個市場上都非常搶眼。因此,我們覺得時機把握得恰到好處。一切進展順利。
So timing, to your question, ideally, we have some utility and site work to do next year and could be coming out of the ground vertically with the first phase, which would include office, retail, multifamily and a potential hotel in '27, opening in the fall of '28. We also love to see the rent growth in the market for mixed-use office generating about a 20% premium. So that will be kind of core to the underwriting. But thanks for asking about Ovation and more to come.
所以,關於時間安排,回答你的問題,理想情況下,我們明年有一些公用設施和場地工作要做,第一階段可能會在 2027 年破土動工,其中包括辦公大樓、零售店、多戶住宅和一家酒店,預計在 2028 年秋季開業。我們也樂見混合用途辦公大樓市場的租金成長,溢價約 20%。所以這將是承保的核心部分。不過,感謝您詢問有關 Ovation 的問題,未來還會有更多相關內容。
Operator
Operator
There are currently no questions at this time. (Operator Instructions)
目前暫無問題。(操作說明)
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Theodore Klinck - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you, everybody, for joining the call today, and thank you for your interest in Highwoods. And if you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to any of us. Thank you.
感謝各位今天參加電話會議,也感謝大家對 Highwoods 的關注。如果您還有任何後續問題,請隨時與我們中的任何一位聯絡。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That will conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。