HII 公佈了強勁的 2024 年第四季度收益,重點是在未來 24 個月內獲得超過 500 億美元的合約獎勵。該公司的目標是到 2030 年實現年收入 150 億美元。
挑戰包括通貨膨脹影響造船合約的利潤水平以及與五角大廈談判價格調整的不確定性。該公司計劃透過降低成本的措施在2025年穩定造船業績。他們預計未來十年造船業利潤率將逐步提高,潛在獲利能力將在疫情後反彈。
重點是透明的談判、準確的成本估算和勞動力發展,以提高未來的獲利能力。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the fourth-quarter 2024 HII earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
女士們,先生們,感謝大家的支持,歡迎參加 2024 年第四季 HII 收益電話會議。(操作員指令)
Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you need further assistance, please press star, followed by 0.
請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。如果您需要進一步的協助,請按星號,然後按 0。
I would now like to hand the call over to Christie Thomas, Vice President of Investor relations. Mrs. Thomas, you may begin.
現在,我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁克里斯蒂·托馬斯。托馬斯夫人,您可以開始啦。
Christie Thomas - VP - IR
Christie Thomas - VP - IR
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the HII fourth quarter 2024 conference call. Matters discussed on today's call that constitute forward-looking statements, including our estimates regarding the company's outlook involve risks and uncertainties and reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. These risks and uncertainties may cause their actual results to differ materially.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。歡迎參加 HII 2024 年第四季電話會議。今天的電話會議上討論的構成前瞻性陳述的問題,包括我們對公司前景的估計,涉及風險和不確定性,並反映了公司根據本次電話會議時可用的信息做出的判斷。這些風險和不確定性可能會導致其實際結果產生重大差異。
Additional information regarding these factors is contained in today's press release and the company's SEC filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the investor relations page of our website at ir.HII.com.
有關這些因素的更多資訊包含在今天的新聞稿和公司的美國證券交易委員會文件中。我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 指標的更多揭露,包括與可比較 GAAP 指標的對賬,請參閱此網路廣播的幻燈片,可在我們網站 ir.HII.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。
On the call today are Chris Kastner, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Steely, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Chris.
今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Chris Kastner;以及執行副總裁兼財務長湯姆·斯蒂利(Tom Steely)。現在我將電話轉給克里斯。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Thanks, Christie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.
謝謝,克里斯蒂。大家早安,感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。
Last year, HII employees remained steadfast in their commitment to our mission of delivering the world's most powerful ships and all the main solutions in service of the nation. I thank them for these efforts which contributed to HII reaching critical milestones last year. We remain focused on meeting our commitments to the Navy and all of our customers. Before I discuss the 2024 results, operational initiatives and guidance, I would like to put in context where we are and give you a perspective on the next 24 months, as well as the mid- to long-term outlook.
去年,HII 員工堅定不移地致力於我們的使命,即為國家提供世界上最強大的船舶和所有主要解決方案。我感謝他們的努力,使得 HII 去年達到了關鍵的里程碑。我們將繼續致力於履行對海軍和所有客戶的承諾。在討論 2024 年的業績、營運舉措和指導之前,我想先介紹一下我們目前的情況,並為您提供未來 24 個月以及中長期前景的看法。
Over the next 24 months, we expect to secure over $50 billion of contract awards. These contracts are being and will be negotiated with current performance and economic conditions in our estimates. They're expected to have a more balanced risk equation, be predictable in cost and schedules for our customers, and provide an opportunity to achieve margins more consistent with historical norms.
在接下來的 24 個月裡,我們預計將獲得超過 500 億美元的合約。這些合約正在並將根據我們估計的當前績效和經濟狀況進行談判。他們有望擁有更平衡的風險方程式,為我們的客戶提供可預測的成本和時間表,並提供實現與歷史規範更一致的利潤的機會。
At the same time, we're achieving key milestones on ships contracted prior to COVID. And as our progress continues, these contracts are becoming an increasingly smaller portion of our portfolio and less of a drag on our financial results. By 2027, the majority of pre-COVID contracts will be behind us.
同時,我們正在實現新冠疫情之前簽約的船舶的關鍵里程碑。隨著我們不斷進步,這些合約在我們的投資組合中所佔的比例越來越小,對我們的財務表現的拖累也越來越小。到 2027 年,大多數新冠疫情之前簽訂的合約都將成為過去。
In addition, our focus on increasing throughput and cost reductions are expected to lead to improved operational execution across the business. With these operational initiatives and the significant demand for our products and services, we expect improved financial performance over the mid to long term. We anticipate growing to $15 billion of annual revenue by 2030 with associated margin expansion, opportunity, and free cash flow growth.
此外,我們專注於提高產量和降低成本,預計這將改善整個業務的營運執行。透過這些營運舉措以及對我們產品和服務的龐大需求,我們預計中長期財務表現將會改善。我們預計到 2030 年年營收將成長到 150 億美元,同時利潤率也將擴大,機會也將增加,自由現金流也將成長。
Now, turning to our 2024 results.
現在,我們來談談 2024 年的業績。
We generated sales of $11.5 billion and earnings per share of $13.96. All three of our divisions hit key milestones and one significant new business during the year. 2024 awards totaled $12 billion, and our year-end backlog was $49 billion of which $27 billion is funded.
我們的銷售額為 115 億美元,每股收益為 13.96 美元。我們三個部門均在這一年中實現了關鍵里程碑並開展了一項重要的新業務。 2024 年獎項總額為 120 億美元,我們年底的積壓金額為 490 億美元,其中 270 億美元已獲得資助。
Now, I'll provide some highlights from each of our divisions.
現在,我將介紹我們各部門的一些亮點。
First, Mission Technologies had another strong year. It achieved awards of more than $12 billion in potential total contract value, a 2024 book-to-bill of 1.33%, and 9% revenue growth year over year. This positive performance reflects Mission Technologies' continued alignment with our country and our allies' national security strategies.
首先,Mission Technologies 又度過了強勁的一年。該公司獲得的潛在總合約價值超過 120 億美元,2024 年的訂單出貨率為 1.33%,營收年增 9%。這一積極表現反映了 Mission Technologies 與我們國家和盟友的國家安全戰略的持續一致性。
For example, in 2024, Mission Technologies achieved its largest win ever, a $6.7 billion contract to provide electronic warfare engineering, and technical services support for the US Air Force. As well as a $3 billion logic task order to provide logistics services, ISR operations, and next gen technology. And in Australia, Mission Technologies was awarded an initial 5-year contract to provide global supply chain services to the Australian government's Department of Defense.
例如,2024年,Mission Technologies取得了有史以來最大的合同,獲得了一份價值 67 億美元的合同,為美國空軍提供電子戰工程和技術服務支援。以及價值 30 億美元的邏輯任務訂單,用於提供後勤服務、ISR 操作和下一代技術。在澳大利亞,Mission Technologies 獲得了一份為期 5 年的初始合同,為澳洲政府國防部提供全球供應鏈服務。
In summary, the Mission Technologies team is executing well. And we are confident in its ongoing success, particularly given how closely its portfolio maps to our defense customers' needs.
總而言之,Mission Technologies 團隊表現良好。我們對其持續的成功充滿信心,特別是考慮到其產品組合與我們的國防客戶的需求非常契合。
In 2024 at Ingalls Shipbuilding, we were awarded a $9.6 billion multi-ship procurement contract for the construction of LPD 33, 34, and 35 and large deck amphibious ship LHA 10, which secures and fit production backlog well into the next decade.
2024 年,英格爾斯造船公司獲得了一份價值 96 億美元的多艦採購合同,用於建造 LPD 33、34 和 35 以及大型甲板兩棲艦 LHA 10,這確保了未來十年的生產積壓。
Also, we delivered LPD 29 USS Richard M. McCool Jr. and launched LPD 30 Harrisburg, and we continued to make progress on the DDG program with 6 destroyers in production, authenticating the keel DDG 133 Sam Nunn in the fourth quarter. Finally, we completed dry dock work and undocked USS Zumwald DDG 1,000 in December.
此外,我們交付了 LPD 29 USS Richard M. McCool Jr. 並下水了 LPD 30 Harrisburg,我們繼續推進 DDG 項目,目前已有 6 艘驅逐艦投入生產,並在第四季度對龍骨 DDG 133 Sam Nunn 進行了認證。最後,我們完成了乾船塢工作,並於 12 月將 USS Zumwald DDG 1,000 出塢。
In 2024 at Newport News Shipbuilding in the Virginia class submarine program, we floated off SSN 798 Massachusetts, delivered SSN 796 USS New Jersey, shipped the final module of SSN 801 Utah, and in December we christened SSN 800 Arkansas. As for aircraft carriers, we completed dry dock work for the RCOH of CVN 74, USS John C. Stennis, and were awarded the advanced planning contract for the RCOH of CVN 75, USS Harry S. Truman.
2024 年,在弗吉尼亞級潛艇計畫的紐波特紐斯造船廠,我們下水了 SSN 798 馬薩諸塞號,交付了 SSN 796 新澤西號,運送了 SSN 801 猶他號的最後一個模組,並於 12 月為 SSN 800 阿肯色號命名。在航空母艦方面,我們完成了 CVN74 約翰·斯坦尼斯號航空母艦的換裝複合大修乾船塢工作,並獲得了 CVN75 哈里·杜魯門號航空母艦的換裝複合大修的先期規劃合約。
Also, 94% of CVN 79 Kennedy compartments have been turned over to the Navy, and all combat systems have been turned over to the test team. And CVN 80 Enterprise was moved for the first time, enabling construction of two aircraft carriers at once in the same dry dock. Looking ahead to 2025 at Ingalls, we expect to launch DDG 129 Jeremiah Denton and complete sea trials for DDG 1,000. And in Newport News we plan to deliver SSN 798 and float off SSN 800.
此外,CVN 79 甘迺迪號的94%艙室已移交海軍,所有作戰系統也已移交給測試團隊。而 CVN 80 企業號首次被轉移,因此可以在同一個乾船塢內同時建造兩艘航空母艦。展望 2025 年,我們預計將在英格爾斯海軍基地下水 DDG 129 Jeremiah Denton 號,並完成 DDG 1,000 號的海上試驗。在紐波特紐斯,我們計劃交付 SSN 798 並下水 SSN 800。
Also, the team is focused on completing CVN 79. CVN 79 is scheduled to deliver in 2025, and the program team is evaluating options for optimizing combat capability additions and readiness for Navy workups.
此外,該團隊還致力於完成 CVN 79。CVN 79 計畫於 2025 年交付,專案團隊正在評估優化戰鬥力增強和海軍備戰準備的方案。
In 2026, we expect to deliver DDG 128 Ted Stevens and LHA 8 Bougainville at Ingalls, and at Newport News, we expect to deliver SSN 800 and lay the keel for CVN 81 Dory Miller. In 2025, we are also doubling down on operational improvement actions to address the residual COVID-related labor, productivity, and supply chain challenges that we've been facing.
2026 年,我們預計將在英格爾斯交付 DDG 128 Ted Stevens 和 LHA 8 Bougainville,在紐波特紐斯,我們預計將交付 SSN 800 並為 CVN 81 Dory Miller 安置龍骨。2025 年,我們也將加倍採取營運改善措施,以解決我們一直面臨的與 COVID 相關的勞動力、生產力和供應鏈挑戰。
Starting with labor and enhancing throughput. In 2024, we exceeded our hiring goal of over 6,000 craft personnel, but attrition remains stubbornly high. Our data shows that additional investment in wages in coordination with our Navy partner will provide needed workforce stability. These increases also allow us to attract highly skilled, first-class shipbuilders and the proficiency they bring. Additionally, we continue to deploy our enterprise operating system across all our shipbuilding programs to ensure consistency.
從勞動力入手,提高生產量。2024 年,我們超額完成了招募 6,000 多名工匠的目標,但員工流失率仍居高不下。我們的數據顯示,與海軍合作夥伴協調在薪資方面進行額外投資將提供所需的勞動力穩定性。這些成長也使我們能夠吸引高技能、一流的造船工人以及他們帶來的專業技能。此外,我們將繼續在所有造船項目中部署企業作業系統,以確保一致性。
On labor and throughput, we have acquired the assets of an existing advanced metal fabricator, W International in Charleston, South Carolina. This acquisition increased our workforce by approximately 500 highly trained personnel, and we plan by 2027 to increase employment significantly at this site, a 480,000 square foot facility.
在勞動力和產量方面,我們收購了現有的先進金屬製造商——位於南卡羅來納州查爾斯頓的 W International 的資產。此次收購使我們的員工人數增加了約 500 名訓練有素的人員,我們計劃在 2027 年在這個佔地 48 萬平方英尺的工廠大幅增加就業機會。
HII Charleston operations is already working on aircraft carrier units for Newport News. And in the next few weeks, we expect to start submarine unit construction. Similarly, we plan to increase our outsourcing by 30% in 2025 and in-source contract labor to address critical skill gaps within our shipyards. As a result of these workforce strategies, we expect to achieve a 20% year-over-year improvement in shipbuilding production throughput.
HII 查爾斯頓營運公司目前正為紐波特紐斯建造航空母艦零件。在接下來的幾週內,我們預計將開始潛水艇部隊的建造。同樣,我們計劃在 2025 年將外包量增加 30%,並引入合約工來解決船廠內部的關鍵技能差距。透過這些勞動力戰略,我們預計造船生產吞吐量將年增 20%。
Our second operational initiative is an annualized enterprise-wide cost reduction target of approximately $250 million per year. Several actions have already been taken to achieve this target, including the realignment of emission technology segment from 6 business units to 4, and the implementation of a new payroll system at the beginning of 2025. Further cost efficiency plans around optimizing cost structures, decreasing overhead and service and support cost, and reducing third party services are under development, and are expected to be executed throughout 2025.
我們的第二項營運舉措是,全企業每年的成本削減目標達到約 2.5 億美元。為實現這一目標,我們已採取多項措施,包括將排放技術部門從 6 個業務部門調整為 4 個,並在 2025 年初實施新的薪資系統。圍繞優化成本結構、降低管理費用、服務和支援成本以及減少第三方服務的進一步成本效率計劃正在製定中,預計將在 2025 年全年執行。
Our third operational initiative for 2025 is ensuring our new contract awards reflect the current economic and production environment. Regarding the FY24 Block 5 submarine contract agreement, negotiations are continuing. And we continue to be confident that an agreement will be reached, although we do not have certainty today on the timing of that agreement.
我們 2025 年的第三項營運措施是確保我們的新合約授予反映當前的經濟和生產環境。關於FY24 Block 5潛艇合約協議,談判正在繼續進行。我們仍然相信雙方將達成協議,儘管我們目前還不確定達成協議的時間。
These 3 items meeting our throughput improvement goals, executing our cost reductions, and achieving new contract awards that reflect the current economic and production environment underpin our guidance and are expected to bring more predictability to our contract cost estimates, delivery schedules, financial performance, and guidance.
這三項滿足了我們的產量改進目標、實現了我們的成本削減、並獲得了反映當前經濟和生產環境的新合約授予,為我們的指導奠定了基礎,並有望為我們的合約成本估算、交付計劃、財務業績和指導帶來更多的可預測性。
In terms of our financial outlook, more specifically for 2025, we expect shipbuilding revenues between $8.9 billion and $9.1 billion and shipbuilding margins in the range of 5.5% to 6.5%. For Mission Technologies, we expect revenues between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion and margins between 4% and 4.5% with the EBITDA margins between 8% and 8.5%. Our free cash flow outlook for 2025 is between $300 million and $500 million.
就我們的財務前景而言,更具體地說是對於 2025 年,我們預計造船收入在 89 億美元至 91 億美元之間,造船利潤率在 5.5% 至 6.5% 之間。對於 Mission Technologies,我們預計營收在 29 億美元至 31 億美元之間,利潤率在 4% 至 4.5% 之間,EBITDA 利潤率在 8% 至 8.5% 之間。我們對 2025 年自由現金流的預測在 3 億至 5 億美元之間。
The 2025 shipbuilding margin of free cash flow outlook is predicated on meeting our throughput and cost reduction objectives. It also assumes appropriate resolution on the last two VCS Block 5 votes, and the Block 6 and Columbia built 2 contracts consistent with the continuing resolution anomaly language that was passed by Congress.
2025 年造船自由現金流利潤率的預期目標是實現我們的吞吐量和成本降低目標。它還假設最後兩次 VCS Block 5 投票得到適當的解決,並且 Block 6 和哥倫比亞建造的 2 份合約與國會通過的持續解決異常語言一致。
Turning to activities in Washington for a moment, we are pleased with the passage and enactment of the Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2025. The FY25 NDAA strongly supports our shipbuilding programs. In addition to authorizing funding for three Arleigh Burke-class surface combatants, one Virginia-class submarine and one San Antonio-class amphibious warship, the NDAA authorizes the refueling and overhaul CVN 75. Additional incremental funding for the second Virginia-class attack submarine in FY25, and continued support for Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers and the LHA and LPD amphibious warship bundle.
談談華盛頓的活動,我們對2025財年國防授權法案的通過和頒布感到高興。FY25 NDAA 大力支持我們的造船計劃。除了批准為三艘阿利·伯克級水面戰艦、一艘弗吉尼亞級潛艇和一艘聖安東尼奧級兩棲戰艦提供資金外,NDAA還批准為 CVN 75 進行加油和大修。為25財年第二艘維吉尼亞級攻擊潛艦提供額外的增量資金,並繼續支援傑拉爾德·R·福特級航空母艦和LHA和LPD兩棲戰艦套裝。
The NDAA also recommends the Navy optimize aircraft carrier acquisition strategy and procure CVN 82 in FY28. We applaud Congress for including anomalies in the CR that provide additional support for nuclear-powered vessel programs, and we look forward to Congress finalizing FY25 appropriation bills.
NDAA也建議海軍優化航空母艦採購策略,並在28財年採購CVN 82。我們讚揚國會在 CR 中納入了為核動力船舶計劃提供額外支持的異常條款,並期待國會最終確定 FY25 撥款法案。
In summary, we continue to make progress on our programs with impactful operational initiatives that we believe will lead to meaningful improvements in productivity and throughput. Demand for our products and services is strong, and we continue our focus on executing for our key customer, the US Navy, with 5 deliveries over the next 2 years. We have a line of sight for generating approximately $15 billion in annual revenue by decade's end. With incrementally improving operating margins over that period, which will facilitate improved results for all stakeholders.
總而言之,我們將繼續透過有影響力的營運舉措來推進我們的計劃,我們相信這些舉措將帶來生產力和產量的顯著提高。我們的產品和服務需求強勁,我們將繼續專注於為我們的主要客戶美國海軍執行未來兩年內 5 次交付。我們的目標是到2020年實現年收入約150億美元。隨著該期間內營業利潤率的逐步提高,這將有助於所有利害關係人改善績效。
So with that, I will turn the call over to Tom for some remarks on our financial results and guidance.
因此,我將把電話轉給湯姆,請他對我們的財務表現和指導發表一些評論。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Thanks, Chris, and good morning. Today, I'll review our fourth-quarter and full year results, and also provide some additional color regarding outlook for 2025. For more detail on the segment results, please refer to the earnings release issued this morning and posted to our website.
謝謝,克里斯,早安。今天,我將回顧我們第四季和全年的業績,並就 2025 年的前景提供一些額外的資訊。有關分部業績的更多詳細信息,請參閱今天上午發布並發佈在我們網站上的收益報告。
Beginning with our consolidated fourth-quarter results in slide 6.
從幻燈片 6 中的我們的第四季度綜合業績開始。
Our fourth quarter revenues of $3 billion decreased approximately 5% compared to the same period last year. This decline was driven by lower year over year revenue at all three segments. Ingalls revenues of $736 million decreased to $64 million or 8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, driven primarily by lower volumes on amphibious assault ships, partially offset by higher surface combatant revenues.
我們第四季的營收為 30 億美元,與去年同期相比下降約 5%。這一下降是由於三個部門的收入同比下降所致。英格爾斯的營收為 7.36 億美元,與 2023 年第四季相比下降至 6,400 萬美元,降幅為 8%,這主要歸因於兩棲攻擊艦產量下降,但水面作戰艦艇收入增加部分抵消了這一影響。
At Newport News, revenues of $1.6 billion declined $77 million or 4.6% from the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower RCOH volumes, unfavorable cumulative adjustments on the Virginia class and aircraft carrier construction programs, partially offset by higher Columbia class volumes. Admission Technologies fourth quarter of 2024 revenues of $713 million decreased $32 million or 4.3% from the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily driven by lower volumes in C5ISR due to non-recurring product revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023.
紐波特紐斯的收入為 16 億美元,較 2023 年第四季減少 7,700 萬美元或 4.6%,主要原因是 RCOH 數量減少,維吉尼亞級和航空母艦建造計畫的累積調整不利,但哥倫比亞級數量增加部分抵消了這一影響。Admission Technologies 2024 年第四季的營收為 7.13 億美元,較 2023 年第四季減少 3,200 萬美元或 4.3%,主要原因是 2023 年第四季非經常性產品收入導致 C5ISR 銷售下降。
Moving to slide 7.
移至幻燈片 7。
Segment operating income for the quarter was $103 million and segment operating margin was 3.4%. This compares to $330 million and 10.4% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2023.
本季分部營業收入為 1.03 億美元,分部營業利益率為 3.4%。相比之下,2023 年第四季分別為 3.3 億美元和 10.4%。
Fourth quarter of 2023 results included two non-recurring favorable items that make for a difficult year over year comparison. The first item was a $70.5 million sale of a court judgment at Ingalls. The second was a $49.5 million insurance claim settlement at Mission Technologies.
2023 年第四季的業績包括兩項非經常性有利項目,這使得同比比較變得困難。第一件商品是英格斯以 7,050 萬美元的價格出售的法院判決。第二筆是 Mission Technologies 的 4,950 萬美元保險索賠和解。
Ingalls operating income of $46 million and margin of 6.3% compares to $169 million and 21.1% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2023. The prior year period included both the favorable sale of a court judgment that I noted, as well as a surface combatant related contract incentive.
英格爾斯的營業收入為 4,600 萬美元,利潤率為 6.3%,而 2023 年第四季的營業收入和利潤率分別為 1.69 億美元和 21.1%。去年同期既包括我注意到的法院判決的優惠銷售,也包括水面戰鬥艦相關的合約激勵。
Newport News fourth quarter of 2024 operating income of $38 million and margin of 2.4% compares to $110 million and 6.6% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2023. The declines were driven by lower performance on Virginia-class submarine and new carrier construction, partially offset by contract incentives on the Columbia-class program.
紐波特紐斯 2024 年第四季的營業收入為 3,800 萬美元,利潤率為 2.4%,而 2023 年第四季的營業收入分別為 1.1 億美元和 6.6%。下降的原因是由於弗吉尼亞級潛艇和新航母建造性能下降,但被哥倫比亞級項目的合約激勵部分抵消。
Shipbuilding margin for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 3.6%. Mission Technologies fourth quarter operating income of $19 million and segment operating margin of 2.7% compared to $51 million and 6.8% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2023. The declines were primarily driven by favorable insurance claim settlements that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2023.
2024年第四季造船利潤率為3.6%。Mission Technologies 第四季營業收入為 1,900 萬美元,分部營業利潤率為 2.7%,而 2023 年第四季分別為 5,100 萬美元和 6.8%。下降的主要原因是 2023 年第四季的保險索賠結算有利。
Net earnings in the quarter were $123 million compared to $274 million in the fourth quarter of last year. Diluted earnings per share in the quarter was $3.15 compared to $6.90 in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
本季淨利為 1.23 億美元,去年同期為 2.74 億美元。本季每股攤薄收益為 3.15 美元,去年同期每股攤薄收益為 6.90 美元。
Moving on to consolidated results for 2024 in slide 8.
繼續第 8 張投影片介紹 2024 年的綜合業績。
Revenues of $11.5 billion increased $81 million, or approximately 1% compared to 2023. Growth was driven primarily by higher volumes at Mission Technologies, partially offset by low volumes at Newport News shipbuilding. Ingalls revenues of $2.8 billion in 2024 increased $15 million or 0.5% from 2023, driven primarily by higher volumes in surface combatants, largely offset by low amphibious assault ship and NSC program revenues.
115 億美元的收入與 2023 年相比增加了 8,100 萬美元,增幅約為 1%。成長主要得益於 Mission Technologies 產量增加,但被 Newport News 造船廠產量減少部分抵銷。英格爾斯公司 2024 年的收入為 28 億美元,比 2023 年增加 1500 萬美元或 0.5%,這主要得益於水面戰艦數量的增加,但兩棲攻擊艦和 NSC 項目收入較低,這在很大程度上抵消了這一影響。
At Newport News, 2024 revenue of $6 billion decreased by $164 million or 2.7% from 2023, primarily due to unfavorable Virginia-class cumulative adjustments, as well as lower volumes in aircraft carriers and nuclear support services, partially offset by higher volume on the Columbia program. Admission Technologies 2024 revenues of $2.9 billion increased $238 million or 8.8% from 2023, primarily driven by higher volumes in cyber, electronic warfare in space, as well as C5ISR contracts.
紐波特紐斯 2024 年的收入為 60 億美元,比 2023 年減少 1.64 億美元或 2.7%,主要原因是弗吉尼亞級累計調整不利,以及航空母艦和核支持服務的數量下降,但哥倫比亞項目的數量增加部分抵消了這一影響。Admission Technologies 2024 年的營收為 29 億美元,比 2023 年增加 2.38 億美元或 8.8%,主要得益於網路、太空電子戰以及 C5ISR 合約數量的增加。
Moving to slide 9.
移至幻燈片 9。
Segment operating income for the year was $573 million and segment operating margin was 5%. This compares to $842 million and 7.4% respectively in 2023. Ingalls operating income of $211 million and margin of 7.6% in 2024 compares to $362 million and 13.2% respectively in 2023. The declines were primarily driven by the sale of the court judgment in 2023, as well as lower performance on amphibious assault ships and surface combatants.
本年度分部營業收入為 5.73 億美元,分部營業利益率為 5%。相較之下,2023 年這一數字分別為 8.42 億美元和 7.4%。英格爾斯 2024 年的營業收入為 2.11 億美元,利潤率為 7.6%,而 2023 年的營業收入和利潤率分別為 3.62 億美元和 13.2%。下降的主要原因是2023年法院判決的出售,以及兩棲攻擊艦和水面戰鬥艦的性能下降。
Newport News 2024 operating income $246 million and margin of 4.1% compares to $379 million and 6.2% respectively in 2023. The decreases were primarily driven by lower Virginia-class and aircraft carrier performance, partially offset by Columbia class contract incentives.
紐波特紐斯 2024 年的營業收入為 2.46 億美元,利潤率為 4.1%,而 2023 年的營業收入和利潤率分別為 3.79 億美元和 6.2%。下降的主要原因是弗吉尼亞級和航空母艦性能下降,部分抵消了哥倫比亞級合約激勵的影響。
Shipbuilding margin for 2024 was 5.2% with the revised -- within the revised guidance range we provided for the year.
2024 年造船利潤率為 5.2%,修訂後的數據在我們為該年度提供的修訂指導範圍內。
Net cumulative adjustments for the year were negative $126 million. Newport News' net cumulative adjustment was negative $154 million, partially offset by positive net cumulative adjustments at both Ingalls and Mission Technologies of approximately $14 million.
本年度淨累計調整額為負 1.26 億美元。紐波特紐斯的淨累計調整為負 1.54 億美元,部分被英格斯和 Mission Technologies 約 1,400 萬美元的淨累計調整正值所抵銷。
Mission Technologies 2024 operating income of $116 million and segment operating margin of 3.9%, both improved from $101 million and 3.7% respectively in 2023. The improvement was driven primarily by volume and performance in cyber electronic warfare and space contracts, stronger performance and fleet sustainment, as well as higher equity income.
Mission Technologies 2024 年營業收入為 1.16 億美元,分部營業利益率為 3.9%,均較 2023 年的 1.01 億美元和 3.7% 有所提高。這一成長主要得益於網路電子戰和太空合約的數量和績效、更強勁的性能和艦隊維持能力、以及更高的股權收入。
Again, the Mission Technologies 2023 results included a favorable $49.5 million dollar insurance claim. So, we are laughing that difficult comparison, and we believe our results still show strong absolute income growth and marginal expansion for the year. Mission Technologies 2024 results included approximately $99 million of amortization in tangible assets compared to approximately $109 million in 2023. Mission Technologies EBITDA margin for 2024 was 7.9%.
再次,Mission Technologies 2023 年的業績包括一筆有利的 4,950 萬美元的保險索賠。因此,我們對這種困難的比較感到好笑,我們相信我們的業績仍然顯示今年強勁的絕對收入成長和邊際擴張。Mission Technologies 2024 年的業績包括約 9,900 萬美元的有形資產攤銷,而 2023 年約為 1.09 億美元。Mission Technologies 2024 年 EBITDA 利潤率為 7.9%。
Company net earnings in 2024 were $550 million compared to $681 million in 2023. Diluted earnings per share in 2024 was $13.96 compared to $17.07 in 2023.
2024 年公司淨利為 5.5 億美元,而 2023 年為 6.81 億美元。2024 年每股攤薄收益為 13.96 美元,而 2023 年為 17.07 美元。
Turning to cash and capital deployment on slide10.
轉向幻燈片 10 上的現金和資本部署。
2024 free cash flow was $40 million, consistent with our most recent guidance and reflecting factors previously discussed. During the year, the company invested $353 million in capital expenditures, or 3.1% of sales, as we continue to prioritize higher throughput in our shipyards. We pay $206 million in dividends while ending 2024 with $831 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand and liquidity of approximately $2.5 billion.
2024 年自由現金流為 4000 萬美元,與我們最近的指導一致,並反映了先前討論過的因素。本年度,該公司投資了 3.53 億美元的資本支出,佔銷售額的 3.1%,因為我們繼續優先考慮提高船廠的產量。我們支付了 2.06 億美元的股息,同時到 2024 年底,庫存現金和現金等價物為 8.31 億美元,流動資金約為 25 億美元。
Cash contributions to our pension and other post-retirement benefit plans a total of $47 million in 2024. Our pension outlook for 2025 has modestly improved from the update that we provided in November, giving this increase in discount rates, partially offset by 2024 asset returns that was slightly below our expectations. Actual asset returns for 2024 were 7.7%. Our 5-year pension outlook has been updated and is available in the appendix of today's presentation on slide 13.
2024 年,我們向退休金和其他退休後福利計畫的現金貢獻總計為 4,700 萬美元。我們對 2025 年退休金的前景較我們 11 月提供的更新結果略有改善,這是由於折現率有所提高,但 2024 年資產回報率略低於我們的預期,部分抵消了這一影響。2024年實際資產報酬率為7.7%。我們對 5 年期退休金展望已更新,可在今天簡報第 13 頁的附錄中找到。
Turning to slide 11 in our financial outlook.
翻到我們財務展望的第 11 張投影片。
First, we are reaffirming our medium to long-term growth targets for both shipbuilding and Mission Technologies. As Chris noted, we see a clear path to $15 billion in annual revenue by the end of the decade, given our robust backlog and very strong demand across the portfolio.
首先,我們重申造船和任務技術的中長期成長目標。正如克里斯所說,鑑於我們充足的積壓訂單和整個投資組合的強勁需求,我們預計到本世紀末年收入將達到 150 億美元。
Regarding 2025 expectations, Chris provided our operational guidance but let me provide a bit more color on our cash flow outlook. We expect 2025 free cash flow of between $300 million and $500 million. Performance on contracts entered into prior to the commencement of the COVID pandemic has impacted our ability to achieve program milestones and corresponding cash receipts. We expect this headwind will continue in 2025, which along with elevated capital expenditures and cash taxes, is impacting our overall cash generation.
關於 2025 年的預期,Chris 提供了我們的營運指導,但讓我對我們的現金流前景提供更多詳細資訊。我們預計 2025 年自由現金流將在 3 億至 5 億美元之間。在 COVID 疫情開始之前簽訂的合約的履行影響了我們實現計劃里程碑和相應現金收入的能力。我們預計這種不利因素將持續到 2025 年,加上資本支出和現金稅的增加,將影響我們的整體現金產生。
We expect 2025 capital expenditures to be approximately 4% of sales as we continue to thoughtfully invest in increasing our shipbuilding efficiency and throughput. Additionally, we expect our 2025 cash taxes will total approximately $220 million.
我們預計 2025 年的資本支出將佔銷售額的約 4%,因為我們將繼續精心投資於提高造船效率和吞吐量。此外,我們預計 2025 年現金稅總額將達到約 2.2 億美元。
Regarding our expectations for the first quarter in 2025, we expect approximately $2.1 billion for shipbuilding revenues and $680 million of Mission Technologies revenues. The shipbuilding margin near 5.5% and Mission Technologies operating margin of approximately 3%. Consistent with normal cash flow cadence, we expect first quarter free cash flow to be negative, representing a use of between $300 million and $500 million, and as working capital continues to build through mid-year before we are able to reach program milestones in contract awards.
關於我們對 2025 年第一季的預期,我們預計造船收入約為 21 億美元,Mission Technologies 營收約為 6.8 億美元。造船利潤率接近 5.5%,Mission Technologies 營業利益率約 3%。與正常現金流節奏一致,我們預計第一季自由現金流為負,代表使用金額在 3 億至 5 億美元之間,並且隨著營運資本持續累積到年中,我們才能在合約授予中達到專案里程碑。
Turning for a moment to capital allocation, as we have highlighted today, we will continue to invest in our business to maintain and grow the capacity of our shipyards. Our approach to dividends and returning excess cash to shareholders remains unchanged. Our focus now, of course, is working through challenged contracts and returning free cash flow to more normalized levels.
談到資本配置,正如我們今天所強調的那樣,我們將繼續投資於我們的業務,以維持和擴大我們造船廠的產能。我們對股利和向股東返還多餘現金的做法保持不變。當然,我們現在的重點是解決有爭議的合同,並將自由現金流恢復到更正常的水平。
To close my remarks, achieving the throughput, cost reduction, and contract award initiatives that we have outlined are critical to stabilizing shipbuilding performance in 2025 and achieving the outlook we have provided. Similar to 2024, we expect that about 70% of the shipbuilding revenue generated in 2025 will be derived from pre-COVID contracts. We forecast approximately 60% of 2026 shipbuilding revenue will be derived from pre-COVID contracts.
最後,我要說的是,實現我們所概述的產量、降低成本和合約授予措施對於穩定 2025 年的造船業績和實現我們所設定的前景至關重要。與 2024 年類似,我們預計 2025 年約 70% 的造船收入將來自新冠疫情之前的合約。我們預測,2026 年約 60% 的造船收入將來自新冠疫情前的合約。
Finally, we expect that in 2027, a majority of the shipbuilding revenue will be derived from contracts that reflect the current operating environment. And we will set the foundation for margin improvement and returns towards historical margin levels.
最後,我們預計到2027年,大部分造船收入將來自反映當前營運環境的合約。我們將為利潤率的提高和利潤率回歸歷史水準奠定基礎。
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Christie for Q&A.
說完這些,我將把電話轉回給克里斯蒂進行問答。
Christie Thomas - VP - IR
Christie Thomas - VP - IR
Thanks, Tom. As a reminder to everyone on the call, please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow up so we can get as many people through the queue as possible. Operator, I will turn it over to you to manage the Q&A.
謝謝,湯姆。提醒通話中的所有人,請將自己限制在一個初始問題和一個後續問題上,以便我們讓盡可能多的人參與其中。接線員,我將把問答環節交給你來管理。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
Doug Harned, Bernstein.
道格·哈內德(Doug Harned),伯恩斯坦。
Doug Harned - Analyst
Doug Harned - Analyst
Very good. Good morning. Thank you.
非常好。早安.謝謝。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Morning, Doug. Sorry for the background noise. We're going through a thunderstorm outside right now, but just bear with us a little bit.
早安,道格。抱歉,背景噪音太大了。外面現在正遭遇雷雨,不過請您稍加忍耐。
Doug Harned - Analyst
Doug Harned - Analyst
Okay, I've got a snowstorm here too, so --
好吧,我這裡也遇到了暴風雪,所以--
So, if I go back a few years, there was a marginal outlook that had always been talked about in the 9% to 10% level. And knowing that, I mean, the CPI is hardly a good indicator for inflation for you all,. But can you give us a sense first, when you look at the margin GAAP that you have now, how much of that would you attribute to inflation versus other operational challenges if you're looking back at that 9% to 10% type projected level.
因此,如果我回顧幾年前,人們討論的邊際前景一直在 9% 到 10% 的水平上。並且知道這一點,我的意思是,對於你們所有人來說,CPI 幾乎不是一個衡量通貨膨脹的良好指標。但是,您能否先給我們一個概念,當您查看現在的 GAAP 利潤率時,如果回顧 9% 到 10% 的預期水平,您會將其中的多少歸因於通貨膨脹與其他營運挑戰。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, so that's a very interesting question. And I don't have a specific number for you, Doug.
是的,這是一個非常有趣的問題。我沒有給你一個具體的數字,道格。
We do have some EPA protection on our -- an inflation protection on our Ingalls contracts and limited EPA protection on material on our aircraft carrier contracts, but it's not just directly inflation that impacts you. It's a little bit more nefarious than that because you have inflation that adjusts very quickly on some products and services that can be passed along very quickly to a customer where we have long-term contracts that we have to perform against the baseline that was negotiated where you really can't adjust as quickly. Which leads to less experienced workforce and performance challenges.
我們確實對我們的英格斯合約有一些 EPA 保護——通貨膨脹保護,對我們的航空母艦合約的材料有有限的 EPA 保護,但直接影響您的不僅僅是通貨膨脹。事實上,情況比這更加險惡,因為通貨膨脹會對某些產品和服務產生非常迅速的調整,而這些調整很快就會轉嫁給客戶,而我們與客戶簽訂了長期合同,必須按照談判確定的基準來執行,因此,我們無法真正快速地進行調整。這導致勞動力經驗不足和績效挑戰。
So, I hate to say that. I hate to not give you a number related to that, but it's a broader question than just the calculation of the inflation impact on our ship programs. As related to that is in the supply chain. It's -- even if we have protection for it, they're just -- the performance of the supply chain because of inflation is not as efficient. So, it's a very broad answer. I apologize for not giving you a precise answer. But inflation kind of seeps into the various elements of our cost structure, not just pay people more.
所以,我不想這麼說。我不想不給你一個與此相關的數字,但這是一個更廣泛的問題,而不僅僅是計算通貨膨脹對我們的船舶項目的影響。與此相關的是供應鏈。即使我們對此有保護措施,但由於通貨膨脹,供應鏈的性能也不會那麼有效率。所以,這是一個非常廣泛的答案。很抱歉未能給您準確答案。但通貨膨脹滲透到了我們成本結構的各個要素中,而不僅僅是增加薪資。
Doug Harned - Analyst
Doug Harned - Analyst
Well, just to follow on that, if you look outside of shipbuilding, the Pentagon has frankly not been very helpful at all in providing equitable price adjustments and that's across many types of programs. And even though you have some, it appears you've been facing a lot of the same problem and everyone, I think there's universal acceptance of the importance of the Virginia-class, the Columbia-class. But when you're negotiating new contracts now in what has been a tough funding environment, do you still see it as possible to get back to those 9% to 10% type margin levels that have been more traditional? Or are we living in a different world now where you may have to sort of give in in a sense, to lower financial performance.
好吧,順便說一下,如果你看看造船業之外的情況,五角大廈坦率地說在提供公平的價格調整方面根本沒有提供太多幫助,而且這涉及許多類型的項目。儘管你們有一些問題,但看起來你們一直面臨著許多同樣的問題,而且我認為大家普遍承認維吉尼亞級、哥倫比亞級的重要性。但是,當您在目前艱難的融資環境下談判新合約時,您是否仍然認為有可能回到更傳統的 9% 到 10% 的利潤水平?或者我們現在生活在一個不同的世界,你可能必須在某種意義上屈服,降低財務績效。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Well, yeah, interesting. I absolutely believe that 9% is the -- is possible moving forward. The $50 billion of contracts that we've negotiated some of those with the bundle, the (inaudible) bundle down in Mississippi, and we're going to -- we're negotiating the FY24 Block 52 boat contract now.
嗯,是的,很有趣。我絕對相信,9% 是未來可能實現的。我們已經就價值 500 億美元的合約進行了談判,其中一些是與密西西比州的一攬子計劃(聽不清楚)有關的,我們現在正在談判 FY24 Block 52 船舶合約。
The customer has been very receptive to understanding the current economic environment, and we will get inflation protection in those new contracts. I think you saw Congress put the additional $5.7 billion in the anomaly for those FY24 boats. There's a recognition. That we need to rebuild this industrial base and there's also a recognition, I believe, that the shipbuilders need to earn fair margins. And so, we're taking that to the table and we're going to make sure that that happens.
客戶非常樂意了解當前的經濟環境,我們將在這些新合約中獲得通膨保護。我想你看到國會為這些 2024 財年船隻額外投入了 57 億美元。有一種認可。我們需要重建這個工業基礎,我相信我們也意識到造船商需要賺取公平的利潤。所以,我們將把這個問題擺到桌面上來,並確保這一點能夠實現。
But I absolutely believe that 9% is something that we can achieve. And the reason I believe it, Doug, is simply because I've done it before. Down at Ingalls, we're in the exact same position. And we had to negotiate performance post-Katrina into the new data set of ships. We got that done and they had a very good run where there was predictable cost and scheduled performance because ultimately it doesn't do anybody any favor to agree to cost estimates or schedules that are unrealistic. So, we're going to make sure that that happens. I think the customers on board with that. They want realistic achievable schedules as well, and so I firmly believe that's going to happen.
但我絕對相信我們能夠實現9%的目標。道格,我之所以相信這一點,只是因為我以前做過。在英格斯,我們的處境完全相同。我們必須將卡崔娜颶風過後船舶的性能納入新的資料集中。我們完成了這項工作,並且他們的運行情況非常好,成本和性能都是可預測的,因為最終同意不切實際的成本估算或計劃對任何人都沒有好處。所以,我們要確保這一點實現。我認為顧客們也同意這一點。他們也希望制定切實可行的時間表,因此我堅信這會發生。
Doug Harned - Analyst
Doug Harned - Analyst
Okay, very good. Thank you.
好的,非常好。謝謝。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Thanks, Doug.
謝謝,道格。
Operator
Operator
Seth Seifman, J.P. Morgan.
摩根大通的塞思‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Hey, thanks very much. Good morning.
嘿,非常感謝。早安.
I wanted to ask about -- in the prepared remarks, I think you talked about the guidance, what underpins the guidance, I think, the expects to bring more predictability. Are you basically -- what contract awards are you assuming that the company will get this year, in the guidance?
我想問一下——在準備好的發言中,我想您談到了指導,指導的基礎是什麼,我認為,預計會帶來更多的可預測性。您基本上——在指導中,您認為公司今年將獲得哪些合約獎勵?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, the submarine contracts, the 17 boats contemplated by -- (multiple speakers)
是的,潛艇合同,17艘潛艇計劃由——(多位發言者)
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Yeah, the kind of plan that you've been advocating is assumed in this --
是的,你所提倡的計劃就是在這個--
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
No, let me correct you there. It's not a full plan. We're negotiating FY24 2 boats consistent with the acquisition approach that was set forth by Congress and supported by the anomaly. Block 6 and Columbia Bill 2, we're going to have to see the acquisition approach for those boats as they developed. [SAS] or a derivative of [SAS] is positive. Anything that brings additional investment into the industrial base that accelerates shipbuilding production is positive, but we're going to take this one step at a time.
不,讓我糾正你一下。這不是一個完整的計劃。我們正在就 24 財年購買 2 艘船進行談判,這符合國會提出並得到異常支持的收購方式。Block 6 和 Columbia Bill 2,我們將不得不觀察這些船隻在發展過程中的收購方式。 [SAS] 或 [SAS] 的衍生物為正。任何能夠為工業基礎帶來額外投資,從而加速造船生產的舉措都是積極的,但我們會一步一步來。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
So, the guidance doesn't assume the17 boats get under contract?
那麼,該指導意見並不假設這 17 艘船都簽訂了合約?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
It does. It assumes that by '24, 2 boats, and then assumes the negotiation of the Block's contracts and the Columbia Bill 2 contract, yes.
是的。它假設到 24 年,將有 2 艘船,然後假設對該區塊的合約和哥倫比亞法案 2 合約進行談判,是的。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Okay. And do you -- I guess what gives you -- have you had communications with the new administration, and what kind of gives you confidence that's going to happen during this year?
好的。您是否與新政府溝通,是什麼讓您有信心今年能夠實現這一目標?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, so interesting. I have high confidence in the FY24 2, but that'll happen the first part of the year. I have had limited conversations with elements of the new administration, and they've assured me that shipbuilding is one of their top priorities, and that's welcome. That makes perfect sense based upon the threat environment. So, I believe we'll step right into Block 6 after we negotiate the last two Block 5 votes.
是啊,很有趣。我對 FY24 2 很有信心,但這會在今年上半年發生。我與新政府的一些官員進行了有限的對話,他們向我保證造船業是他們的首要任務之一,對此我表示歡迎。根據威脅環境來看,這是完全合理的。因此,我相信在協商第 5 區塊的最後兩票後,我們將直接進入第 6 區塊。
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Seth Seifman - Analyst
Okay. Okay. Thanks. I'll leave it there for now.
好的。好的。謝謝。我暫時把它留在那裡。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Scott Mikus, Melius Research.
米庫斯(Scott Mikus),Melius Research。
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Good morning, Chris. I kind of want to follow up on answer Doug's question.
早上好,克里斯。我想繼續回答 Doug 的問題。
When I think about post-Katrina, Northrop had a lot of struggles with the shipbuilding business before spinning it off to form HAI shipbuilding margins. Initially weren't that great post spin, but come 2013, there was a meaningful pickup in favor of EAC adjustments and your stock more than doubled that year. So, just curious, what lessons that you learned from the late 2000s and early 2010s that are still relevant and could be applied today? And when do you think investors will see EAC's flip from unfavorable to favorable?
當我回想起卡崔娜颶風過後,諾斯羅普在將造船業務剝離出來形成 HAI 造船利潤之前,經歷了許多困難。最初,分拆後的情況並不是很好,但到了 2013 年,EAC 調整有了顯著的回升,當年您的股票上漲了一倍多。所以,只是好奇,您從 2000 年代末和 2010 年代初學到了什麼教訓,這些教訓仍然有意義並且可以在今天應用?您認為投資者何時會看到 EAC 由不利轉有利?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
No, thank you. I'll start this answer and then I'll kick it over to Tom for some timing related issues.
不,謝謝。我會先回答這個問題,然後我會把它交給湯姆來解決一些與時間相關的問題。
But I have confidence that we can get this done because I've done it before, as you said. And the key is making sure that you're very transparent and disclose current performance and ensure that you're resolute at the negotiation table and there's achievable and predictable cost of schedule estimates when you do those negotiations.
但我有信心我們能夠完成這項工作,因為正如您所說,我以前做過。關鍵是要確保您非常透明並披露當前的表現,並確保您在談判桌上態度堅決,並且在進行這些談判時有可實現和可預測的進度估算成本。
As I said previously, it doesn't do anybody any favors to miss schedules or miss cost estimates. So, we just need to make sure that we estimate them correctly and negotiate them correctly. And that can be done, and there's $50 billion of work that's going to be negotiated here. It's just getting through the pre-COVID contracts is what's important. So, I'll let Tom talk about the timing a little bit.
正如我之前所說,錯過計劃或錯過成本估算對任何人都沒有好處。因此,我們只需要確保我們正確地估計它們並正確地協商它們。這是可以做到的,而且這裡將就 500 億美元的工作進行談判。完成新冠疫情前的合約才是最重要的。因此,我會讓湯姆稍微談談時間問題。
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Thanks, Chris.
謝謝,克里斯。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Yeah, well, as Chris mentioned, both him and myself were down there. I spent 10 years from 2011 to 2021, so I saw that march up. And it's really about making sure, one, we get good contracts that have a good cost equilibrium balance between us and our customer. We've been hit now with COVID and inflation and things of that nature. It's really causing a draw on our production lines.
是的,正如克里斯所提到的,他和我都在那裡。我從 2011 年到 2021 年花了 10 年時間,所以我看到了這一進步。這實際上是為了確保,首先,我們能獲得良好的合同,從而讓我們與客戶之間實現良好的成本平衡。現在我們又受到了新冠疫情、通貨膨脹等問題的打擊。這確實對我們的生產線造成了拖累。
These long-term contracts are being impacted by inflation, the number of heads experience in the yard and the supportability of the material right now. So one, it's any of the new awards we get like the bundle down in Ingalls that we have, the FY23 award for destroyers that that we received and now going forward. The plethora of 17 boats between the VCS 56 and Columbia Bill 2. Getting balanced contracts that we have appropriate, our performance is appropriately aligned. Our schedules that we see right now are rolled in the investments both from ourselves and from our Navy partner will have a positive benefit, but ensuring we have a solid program plan and we're putting good commitments on contract. And then obviously, we've got to execute on our commitments on that front. So it's maintaining our budgets, holding schedules, making progress weekly, monthly, quarterly, and we have a track record of doing that. I'm confident we have the the processes and the facilities for the most part we need more throughput, but the processes and the tools and the facilities are in place right now.
這些長期合約正受到通貨膨脹、船廠經驗數量以及當前材料可維護性的影響。首先,這是我們獲得的任何新獎項,例如我們在英格爾斯獲得的捆綁獎勵,以及我們收到的 2023 財年驅逐艦獎勵,現在還在繼續。VCS 56 和 Columbia Bill 2 之間有 17 艘船。獲得適當的平衡合同,我們的表現就會得到適當的調整。我們目前看到的時間表包括我們自己和海軍合作夥伴的投資,這將帶來積極的效益,但要確保我們有一個可靠的計劃,並在合約中做出良好的承諾。顯然,我們必須履行在這方面的承諾。因此,我們可以維持預算,按計畫完成任務,每週、每月、每季取得進展,而且我們有這樣做的記錄。我相信我們擁有大部分我們需要的流程和設施,以實現更高的產量,但現在流程、工具和設施都已經到位。
It's about building out the workforce we have, a strengthening and a more consistent supply chain that we have against our schedules, and then us kind of hitting the mark and cost and schedule on a regular rhythm. That's what we did down at Ingalls. I think we have the pieces in place and where we are short on people, the cost reduction initiatives that we have right now and we've talked about the contracts, contract equity going forward here. I think we understand what's causing us a delay in our production programs, specifically on VCS and some headwinds they have down at Ingalls on the destroyer program. And I think we're working hard to put the dollars and the pressure in the right areas to find the rhythm that we saw on the Ingalls march up post-Katrina.
這是為了建立我們現有的勞動力,根據我們的計畫建立更強化、更一致的供應鏈,然後我們就能定期達到目標、成本和進度。這正是我們在英格爾斯所做的。我認為我們已經準備好了所有要素,我們在人力方面存在不足,我們目前已經採取了降低成本的舉措,並且我們已經討論了合約、合約權益等問題。我想我們明白是什麼原因導致我們的生產計劃延遲,特別是 VCS 和英格斯驅逐艦計劃中遇到的一些阻力。我認為,我們正在努力將資金和壓力投入到正確的領域,以找到我們在卡崔娜颶風過後英格斯前進時看到的節奏。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
So, we don't have a specific date for you on and when we get back to those sort of profitability estimates. But as Tom mentioned in his script, we are transitioning over the next couple of years, out of these pre-COVID contracts into the new contracts. And as we transition, there should be an uplift in profitability.
因此,我們沒有給您一個具體的日期,也沒有辦法確定何時可以恢復獲利能力估算。但正如湯姆在劇本中提到的那樣,我們將在未來幾年內從這些 COVID 之前的合約過渡到新合約。隨著我們的轉型,獲利能力應該會有所提升。
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Okay, and then one quick follow up. The midpoint of the guidance implies about $540 million of shipbuilding operating income. I'm just curious, is there any assumption baked in there for what net EACs will be for this year?
好的,然後快速跟進。該指引的中點意味著造船業營業收入約為 5.4 億美元。我只是好奇,對於今年的淨 EAC 有什麼假設嗎?
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Yeah, so obviously, we run our EAC process on a quarterly basis. We don't provide the profitability by ship or by class like that, even by division. So, we are always baking in EAC, the estimates to complete in the EAC is aligned with our performance that we have right now with the risks and opportunities kind of hedged against that, right? So, we know we're throwing additional investment dollars in it and efforts and improvements of our production lines, we balance that with the risks and opportunities we see in front of us, so that sets the trajectory and how we expect to perform kind of going forward. And again, that ETC estimate to complete on these EACs gets re-evaluated every 90 days and we get another set of actuals. So, I'm not going to get into the specific details that we have in there, but we do expect a stabilization and an improvement as we go forward.
是的,很明顯,我們每季運行一次 EAC 流程。我們不提供按船舶或按等級甚至按部門劃分的盈利能力。所以,我們一直在考慮 EAC,EAC 的完成估計與我們目前的業績是一致的,風險和機會也已經被規避,對嗎?因此,我們知道我們正在投入額外的投資資金和努力來改善我們的生產線,我們會平衡我們面臨的風險和機遇,這樣就確定了未來的發展軌跡和我們預期的表現。再次,我們每 90 天重新評估這些 EAC 的 ETC 完成估計,並得到另一組實際情況。所以,我不會深入討論其中的具體細節,但我們確實期待在未來實現穩定和改善。
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Scott Mikus - Analyst
Okay, got it. Thanks for taking the question.
好的,明白了。感謝您回答這個問題。
Operator
Operator
Pete Skibitski, Alembic Olympic Global.
皮特‧斯基比茨基 (Pete Skibitski),Alembic Olympic Global。
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
I guess just sticking to the shipbuilding margin questions, it sounds like maybe you'd recommend we assume sort of gradual improvements on shipbuilding margin through kind of to the end of the decade, maybe hitting that 9% mark. And I don't know if we should think about a step change improvement in '27 or just keeping it gradual. And then, I just wonder if you could talk about the, it sounds like you could potentially get a contract change on CBN 79. I wasn't sure if that, if you did get a contract change if that would impact margin one way or another. Thanks.
我想,只要堅持造船利潤率的問題,聽起來也許你會建議我們假設造船利潤率會逐漸提高到本世紀末,也許會達到 9% 的水平。我不知道我們是否應該考慮在 27 年實現階躍式改進,還是只是保持漸進式改進。然後,我只是想知道您是否可以談談,聽起來您可能會就 CBN 79 進行合約變更。我不確定如果合約確實發生變化,是否會對利潤產生某種影響。謝謝。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, so let me start and I'll let Tom chip in. Maybe let me ask the 79 question first, and then I'll kick the margin timing question over to Tom.
是的,那麼就讓我開始吧,然後讓湯姆也加入進來。也許讓我先問第 79 個問題,然後我會把保證金時機問題交給湯姆。
79, yes, we do, expect a contract change related to some additional capabilities that may be put in the ship. The program teams' working on that, and with the objective of getting the ship delivered with the most capability and deployed as soon as possible. The program teams are working on that, and there would be a change related to that, but I don't think it's positive or negative. It's just an equitable adjustment related to the capabilities that are added.
79,是的,我們確實期待合約變更與可能在船上增加的一些附加功能有關。專案團隊正在致力於此,目標是盡快交付具有最大性能的船舶並部署。專案團隊正在為此努力,並且會發生與此相關的變化,但我並不認為這是積極的或消極的。這只是與增加的功能相關的公平調整。
So with that, I'll send it over to Tom on the margin timing.
因此,我會將其發送給湯姆,告知其保證金時間。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Yeah. So specifically, obviously we don't provide margin guidance for the following year or the out years. Obviously, there is a shape and an expectation we have right here. And you know as of Q3 last year, we missed the expectation of where we thought we were. You really got to get down to where we've been impacted, and again, it's that it's the less experience, the labor we have, the throughput, and the support of supply chain. We see areas and we have initiatives to kind of improve all of that. So going forward, that's going to be a lift against all operations we have now
是的。具體來說,顯然我們不會提供下一年度或未來幾年的利潤率指引。顯然,我們在這裡有一個形狀和期望。您知道,截至去年第三季度,我們的業績並未達到我們的預期。你真的必須深入了解我們受到影響的地方,而且,再次強調,這是因為我們的經驗、勞動力、產量和供應鏈支援都比較少。我們看到了一些領域,並採取了一些措施來改善所有這些領域。因此,從長遠來看,這將對我們目前的所有行動起到推動作用
For contracts that are run through COVID, the older pre-COVID contracts, those contracts have seen increased costs. So, there's limited ability to go and get additional profitability on those contracts. As we put the new work, the $50 billion on here, obviously, that didn't run through that. It's going to get the benefit of of the current performance and where we stand right now. And the opportunity is much greater to have the profitability bounce back. So, I would say the way to model that is you follow the revenue. In my remarks, I gave you the mix and how it blends out, and by 2027, the majority of the work will be post-COVID work, and I do expect a rampant profitability as we work ourselves through the decade here.
對於在 COVID 期間簽訂的合同,即 COVID 之前的舊合同,這些合同的成本有所增加。因此,透過這些合約獲取額外獲利的能力有限。當我們開展新的工作時,這筆 500 億美元顯然沒有用完。它將受益於當前的表現以及我們目前的狀況。獲利能力反彈的機會也更大。因此,我認為建模的方法是追蹤收入。在我的演講中,我向您介紹了這種組合以及它是如何融合的,到 2027 年,大部分工作將是後疫情時代的工作,而且我確實預計,隨著我們在未來十年的工作,盈利能力將大幅提升。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
But always remember, we're pretty conservative when we start out ships. So, I do agree it's going to increase, but I wouldn't anticipate a step change.
但請永遠記住,我們在開始造船時是相當保守的。所以,我確實同意它會增加,但我不會預期會出現階躍變化。
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
Pete Skibitski - Analyst
Okay, thanks for the call, guys.
好的,謝謝大家的來電。
Operator
Operator
David Strauss, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的戴維·施特勞斯(David Strauss)。
David Strauss - Analyst
David Strauss - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning.
謝謝。早安.
Hey, Chris. Could you maybe talk about the opportunity to buy additional shipyard capacity? I think you've made some comments recently in the press around that. Can you kind of size that opportunity. And I if I missed it, I apologize on the call or in your prepare remarks. What are your hiring plans in 2025 relative to 2024?
嘿,克里斯。能談談購買額外造船廠產能的機會嗎?我想您最近在媒體上已經就此發表了一些評論。您能評估一下這個機會嗎?如果我錯過了,我會在通話中或在您準備的發言中道歉。相對於 2024 年,您 2025 年的招募計畫是什麼?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, so we'll hire about the same amount. We've repositioned our hiring a bit, as I said in a previous earnings call, from kind of broadly hiring, including entry level to hiring more experienced people. We've actually made some progress in that regard, and specifically in Newport News, we had been hiring out of the pipeline, which is really the regional development centers. These are people that have chosen shipbuilding as a career, they've been at a 5% to 10% rate. That's increased to 35% at the back half of the year, which is really positive. And we like -- we would like it to get to 60% this year, and that's really thanks to the state of Virginia and the federal government for increasing the funding for those regional development centers. We're also targeting additional experience down at Ingalls where they like to hire 80% experienced people. So while the numbers are the same, we would -- we're repositioning it -- repositioning a bit.
是的,所以我們會僱用大約相同數量的員工。正如我在之前的財報電話會議上所說的那樣,我們對招募進行了一些重新定位,從廣泛的招募(包括入門級)到招募更有經驗的人員。我們實際上在這方面取得了一些進展,特別是在紐波特紐斯,我們一直在招募人才,這實際上是區域發展中心。這些人選擇造船作為職業,其成長率為 5% 至 10%。今年下半年這一數字已增至 35%,這確實是一個積極的信號。我們希望今年能達到 60%,這真的要感謝維吉尼亞州和聯邦政府增加對這些地區發展中心的資助。我們也希望在英格爾斯 (Ingalls) 獲得更多經驗,他們喜歡僱用 80% 具有豐富經驗的人才。因此,雖然數字相同,但我們會 - 重新定位它 - 稍微重新定位。
Now, your question about buying another shipyard. I'm really not interested in that. W International was an opportunity that came along and they're quality builder or manufacturer that has been in the shipbuilding industry, and we were concerned they were going to move out of the shipbuilding industry and that is a problem. So, we have a lot of outsource partners and I'd rather develop outsource partners and have an arm's length relationship. I really don't want to vertically integrate, but this opportunity showed up and we got 500 world-class ship builders with Newport News management team managing them. So it's really -- was really a layup for us. It's going to increase our throughput, immediately, but I have no plans to right now unless something very interesting came along to buy additional manufacturing facilities.
現在,您的問題是關於購買另一家造船廠。我確實對此不感興趣。W International 是一個隨之而來的機會,他們是船舶製造業的優質建造商或製造商,我們擔心他們會退出船舶製造業,這是一個問題。所以,我們有很多外包合作夥伴,我寧願發展外包合作夥伴並維持公平的合作關係。我確實不想垂直整合,但這個機會出現了,我們得到了 500 家世界級的船舶製造商,並由紐波特紐斯管理團隊管理他們。所以這對我們來說真的是一個上籃得分。它會立即提高我們的產量,但是我現在還沒有計劃,除非出現一些非常有趣的事情來購買額外的製造設施。
David Strauss - Analyst
David Strauss - Analyst
Okay, thanks.
好的,謝謝。
And Tom, a follow up on on free cash flow and capital deployment. In terms of your free cash flow progression beyond this year, I think about '26, '27 is as the pre-COVID work runs off, would you expect the free cash flow progression given the CapEx and working capital investments you've had to make here, would you expect that free cash flow progression back to normal to maybe be faster relative to kind of what we're going to see in terms of the runoff of the pre-COVID work. And then just how you're thinking about capital deployment, given the cash burn in Q1 and the debt maturity and in, I think, the beginning of Q2. Thanks.
湯姆,請關注自由現金流和資本配置問題。就今年以後的自由現金流進展而言,我認為 26 年和 27 年是新冠疫情之前的工作結束的時候,考慮到您在這裡必須進行的資本支出和營運資本投資,您是否預計自由現金流進展會恢復正常,相對於我們在新冠疫情之前工作結束方面將會看到的速度,您是否預計自由現金流進展會恢復正常的速度可能會更快。然後,考慮到第一季的現金消耗和債務到期情況,以及我認為的第二季初,您如何考慮資本部署。謝謝。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Yeah, so I would expect as we work through, as Chris said, the chop in the water for the next 12 to 18 months, the cash flow would ramp up, and we would get back to more normalized levels as we work ourselves through the pre-COVID contracts that we have here. And you can time that as well as with the margin, the cash flow will follow that in the out year, so that's how that works.
是的,所以我預計,正如克里斯所說,隨著我們努力度過未來 12 到 18 個月的困難時期,現金流將會增加,隨著我們完成 COVID 之前的合同,我們將回到更正常的水平。並且您可以根據保證金來計算時間,明年的現金流也會隨之變化,這就是它的工作原理。
In the capital deployment, there's no change, we're still using the same process and the model that we have here. We'll continue to have a -- we'll invest in the yards. We'll have a capital; we'll have a dividend that we have annually here and an excess free cash flow which we've been doing since [2012] will go back to the shareholders as that as that materializes. So, no change in that policy right now. We did not provide any guidance for share buybacks in 2025. And if something changes in that front, we'll update you on a quarterly earning.
在資本部署方面,沒有變化,我們仍然使用相同的流程和模型。我們將繼續進行—我們將對船廠進行投資。我們將有首都;我們每年都會有股息,而且我們自 2012 年起就有的超額自由現金流一旦實現,就會回饋給股東。因此,目前該政策沒有改變。我們沒有提供任何有關 2025 年股票回購的指導。如果這方面有任何變化,我們將向您通報季度收益。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
I would add it's an interesting question on projecting free cash flow right now. And I've spoken of this previously, I don't know if it's been picked up, but the incentive laden nature of some of these contracts that are being let really lend itself to be difficult to project free cash flow timing.
我想補充一點,這是關於預測自由現金流的一個有趣的問題。我之前談到過這一點,我不知道它是否已經被接受,但其中一些合約的激勵性質確實使其很難預測自由現金流的時間。
It's always been a challenge for us to project free cash flow timing. Because of the lumpy, the limited amount of projects, large invoices can move across the period. But with these large incentives and the timing of these incentives and some of them not even being negotiated yet, it makes it a bit of a challenge. So, we're going to continue to be lumpy going forward, but I agree with Tom, 100% it should incrementally improve over the long term.
預測自由現金流時間對我們來說一直是個挑戰。由於項目數量不均等,大額發票可能會跨期流動。但由於這些激勵措施規模龐大且時間緊迫,有些甚至還沒有進行談判,因此這帶來了一些挑戰。所以,我們未來的發展還會繼續坎坷,但我百分之百同意湯姆的觀點,從長遠來看,情況應該會逐步改善。
David Strauss - Analyst
David Strauss - Analyst
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Thanks. Tom, were the Virginia-class negative EACs on the Block 4 boats, the Block 5 boats, or both?
謝謝。湯姆,維吉尼亞級負 EAC 是在 Block 4 艇上、Block 5 艇上,還是兩者兼具?
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
A mix of both.
兩者兼而有之。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Okay, and I think the Block 5 boats are post-COVID boats, so why should we only be focused on the pre-COVID --
好的,我認為 Block 5 型潛水艇是後疫情時代的潛水艇,那麼為什麼我們只應該關注前疫情時代的潛水艇呢?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
They were negotiated in 2019; those were negotiated in 2019.
這些談判是在 2019 年進行的;這些是在 2019 年進行談判的。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Yeah, they went in 2019, yeah.
是的,他們是在 2019 年去的。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Okay. I think, Chris, would the contract change on CVN 79 result in a change in the delivery timeline for that ship?
好的。克里斯,我認為 CVN 79 的合約變更會導致該船交付時間表的變化嗎?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Potentially, we're working through that with the with the customer right now.
有可能,我們現在正在和客戶一起解決這個問題。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Okay. Can you remind me why the ship was originally delayed from 2024 to 2025? I thought it was something similar to what you're now saying. May cause it to go into --
好的。你能提醒我為什麼這艘船最初從 2024 年推遲到 2025 年嗎?我認為這和你現在說的類似。可能會導致它進入--
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, no, so sorry for the confusion. There's actually a couple changes, large changes that took place on CVN 79. The first one was related to some significant combat system work that the Navy asked us to do. I think the what you -- what you're referring to is moving PSA into the baseline work.
是的,不,很抱歉造成混淆。CVN 79 實際上發生了一些變化,較大的變化。第一個與海軍要求我們做的一些重要的作戰系統工作有關。我認為您所指的是將 PSA 轉移到基線工作。
That was the schedule change, previously, where we were going to deliver it, do a significant amount of PSA work, and then get it deployed. They moved that into the baseline which caused a schedule change. This is additional capability that they've developed based on CVN 78's performance and deployment. And so you always want to get that, as you learn, this is the second ship of the class, as you learn, you want to make sure that all the capabilities are in that ship when it gets deployed.
這是先前的時間表變更,我們原本計劃交付它,做大量的 PSA 工作,然後進行部署。他們將其移至基線,從而導致了時間表的改變。這是他們基於 CVN 78 的效能和部署開發的附加功能。因此,您總是希望得到這一點,正如您所了解的,這是該級別的第二艘艦艇,正如您所了解的,您希望確保在部署時該艦艇具備所有能力。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Okay, and did you book a negative VAC on CVN 79 this quarter?
好的,本季您是否在 CVN 79 上登記了負面 VAC ?
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
It wasn't material.
這不是物質的。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, I think there's a modest negative adjustment.
是的,我認為有一個適度的負面調整。
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Scott Deuschle - Analyst
Okay, thanks guys, I'll leave it there.
好的,謝謝大家,我就不說了。
Operator
Operator
Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.
邁爾斯·沃爾頓,沃爾夫研究公司。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning.
謝謝。早安.
I was curious on the shipbuilding margin guidance for '25, 5.5 to 6.5 in the first quarter, you're already at 5.5. But I think the full year is predicated on material increases in throughput and cost reduction as well as the contract award assumptions. So, the the question is how much are you assuming is going to happen in the booking rate versus when those things happen, the margins will progress higher.
我對 2025 年的造船利潤率指引很好奇,第一季是 5.5 到 6.5,現在已經是 5.5 了。但我認為全年業績取決於產量大幅增加、成本降低以及合約授予假設。所以,問題是您認為預訂率將發生多少變化,而當這些事情發生時,利潤率將會上升多少。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, so all of that is included in the guide, right? The new ships, meeting our throughput and our cost reduction initiatives, the timing of the new ships and incentive assumption on those new ships, so it's kind of all in the mix. And then we do have a bit of a -- it's a bit of a conservative guide related to -- we've just been had a couple quarters of negative adjustments here, so we thought it was prudent to make it a bit conservative. So, it's all in the mix. I'd like to say I could time it out for you. We'll give you the information every quarter on how we think the next quarter is going to be, but all of that factors into the guide.
是的,所以所有這些都包含在指南中,對嗎?新船、滿足我們的吞吐量和成本削減計劃、新船的時間安排以及對這些新船的激勵假設,所以這一切都混合在一起。然後我們確實有一點 - 這是一個有點保守的指導 - 我們剛剛經歷了幾個季度的負面調整,所以我們認為讓它有點保守是明智的。所以,一切都混雜在一起。我想說我可以為你安排時間。我們每個季度都會向您提供我們對下一季前景的預測信息,但所有這些都會被納入指南中。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
I guess the way I was going at this first quarter you obviously wouldn't have the contract, you wouldn't have a lot of these cost improvements so that 5.5% is that low end pretty much reflective of your current situation, ignoring the improvements you're talking about on throughput and cost improvement.
我想,按照我在第一季度的做法,您顯然不會有合同,也不會有很多成本改進,因此 5.5% 是最低限度反映了您當前的情況,忽略了您所說的吞吐量和成本改進。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
I think that's probably fair, but we're working hard to get that contract done.
我認為這可能是公平的,但我們正在努力完成合約。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Hey, Miles. It's Tom.
嘿,邁爾斯。是湯姆。
We get the court to guide, so we're really close to that, and that's how we see it's going to play out. I mean, obviously there's the timing of the new contract award, there's the list that we expect to get from the initiatives that we have on the objectives stage, the operational objectives page, but then there's just the run rate opportunities to risk that see performance, CTIs and SPIs, most closest to the slide here. So I mean, it's in the mix there, obviously, it's on the bottom end of the range here at the beginning of the year, but they'll be by -- hopefully, they'll be bye against the contract awards, the initiatives we have. And then as the programs mature going forward, we could realize the medium of the top end of that range.
我們得到了法庭的指導,因此我們非常接近這個目標,這就是我們所看到的比賽將會如何進行。我的意思是,顯然有新合約授予的時間,有我們期望從目標階段的舉措中獲得的清單,即運營目標頁面,但接下來只是運行率風險機會,可以看到性能、CTI 和 SPI,最接近這裡的幻燈片。所以我的意思是,它在那裡混合在一起,顯然,它在年初處於範圍的底端,但他們將 - 希望他們能夠通過合約授予,以及我們的舉措。然後隨著專案的不斷成熟,我們可以實現該範圍的中等至高端。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
Okay, and then, Chris, maybe a higher-level question. This move towards outsourcing, obviously, there's benefits to that you could maybe control your cost or have a little bit more visibility on cost, but you're relinquishing some control and quality control in particular. How do you weigh that and a move to increase it as much as you're talking about 35%? I don't know what the base level is, so it could be a material number, or it could be a material number.
好的,然後,克里斯,也許是一個更高級別的問題。顯然,這種外包措施有好處,你也許可以控製成本,或對成本有更高的可見性,但你會放棄一些控制權,尤其是品質控制權。您如何衡量這一點,並將其提高到您所說的 35% 呢?我不知道基準水平是什麼,所以它可能是一個物質編號,也可能是一個物質編號。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, it's a material number. And the good news is we're outsourcing with partners that we already do outsource work with, so we're very familiar with them. We don't do this lightly. We do pilot projects so that the partners can demonstrate their cost and schedule and quality capability before we do it. So, it's a good question because we've been burned by outsourcing before. I think a lot of people in the industry have, and we just need to make sure we do it right. So, it's a fair -- it's a risk that we understand, and we mitigate because we've done it before.
是的,這是一個實質的數字。好消息是,我們正在與已經進行外包工作的合作夥伴進行外包,因此我們對他們非常熟悉。我們不會輕易這麼做。我們進行試點項目,以便合作夥伴能夠在我們開展之前展示他們的成本、進度和品質能力。這是個好問題,因為我們以前就因為外包而吃苦頭。我想業內很多人都已經這樣做了,我們只需要確保我們做得正確。所以,這是公平的——我們了解這種風險,並且可以減輕這種風險,因為我們以前做過這樣的事情。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
I would add on the back of that like an acquisition like W International are bringing it in-house with Newport News people leadership processes through a proven workforce that's there that was up and running. There's work going on down there right now and having 500 heads ready and moving forward operationally is a big plus there. So, we're doing it really smartly. We're ensuring who we insource to outsource, putting the bumpers around to make sure we get the performance and expectations. And we anticipate that we'll be able to execute that work and be a significant piece of the lift that we talk about 20% more earned through.
我想補充的是,在此基礎上,像 W 國際酒店這樣的收購將透過紐波特紐斯酒店內部經過驗證的、高效運作的員工隊伍,將領導力流程帶入酒店內部。現在那裡正在進行工作,準備好 500 個頭並在運營中向前推進,這是一個很大的優勢。所以,我們做得非常聰明。我們正在確保從內部採購到外包的人員,並安裝保險桿以確保我們獲得性能和期望。我們預計我們將能夠完成這項工作,並成為我們所說的 20% 以上收入成長的重要組成部分。
Myles Walton - Analyst
Myles Walton - Analyst
Okay. All right, thank you.
好的。好的,謝謝。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ron Epstein, Bank of America.
美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦 (Ron Epstein)。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Hey, good morning. This is Jordan (inaudible).
嘿,早安。這是喬丹(聽不清楚)。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Hey. Good morning, Jordan.
嘿。早上好,喬丹。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
On the initiatives that you guys are working on for hiring, what's changed versus what you guys have been doing for the past couple of years? And also to how do you think, HII and Mission Tech specifically to, is there any impact from dodge?
關於你們正在進行的招募計劃,與過去幾年相比有什麼變化?另外,您認為 HII 和 Mission Tech 具體會受到道奇的影響嗎?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Okay, yeah, so first, what changed is, I previously spoke about it's not only hiring, we've refocused that to target more experienced shipbuilders. Wages are going to help that. The anomaly has workforce development support, and so that will help that process to hire more experienced ship builders and will assist in retention as well.
好的,是的,首先,變化的是,我之前談到過,這不僅僅是招聘,我們重新將重點放在更有經驗的造船工人身上。工資將會對此有所幫助。異常具有勞動力發展支持,因此這將有助於僱用更有經驗的船舶建造者,也有助於留住人才。
Dodge is it's the new administration. It's good that one of their top priorities is shipbuilding. We're all for reduced regulation, so we'll work with that team to ensure that we have the appropriate level of regulations. And trust me, no one wants less cost and better delivery schedules than I do. So, we welcome the initiatives that could be put in place and we would participate in that going forward.
道奇是新政府。他們的首要任務之一就是造船,這是好事。我們都贊成減少監管,因此我們將與該團隊合作,確保我們擁有適當的監管水平。相信我,沒有人比我更希望獲得更低的成本和更好的交貨時間表。因此,我們歡迎這些措施的實施,並願意繼續參與其中。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.
高塔姆·卡納(Gautam Khanna),TD Cowen。
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Hey. Good morning, guys.
嘿。大家早安。
So, I have two questions. One on -- previously, you guys have thought about a cash inflow associated with signing the 17 submarine contracts, I think it was a release of contract assets or receivables. Is that still true? And if you could quantify how much would be -- could be invoiced upon signing that and then I had a follow up.
因此,我有兩個問題。首先,之前你們曾考慮簽署 17 艘潛艦合約所帶來的現金流入,我認為這是合約資產或應收帳款的釋放。現在還是這樣嗎?如果您可以量化簽署後可以開立發票的金額,然後我再進行跟進。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Yeah, there is some cash upside to executing those contracts. We risk adjust all of that and we -- so we haven't broken that out, got them, but that's included in our guide and there's a -- there will be some cash receipts related to that.
是的,執行這些合約確實可以帶來一些現金收益。我們會對所有這些進行風險調整,因此我們尚未將這些全部列出,但這包含在我們的指南中,並且會有一些與此相關的現金收入。
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Because if I recall a quarter ago, a lot of the free cash reduction was in the guidance for 2024, was that those contracts moving out the signing? So, is it about $500 million and can you ballpark it for us?
因為如果我沒記錯的話,一個季度前,很多自由現金減少都是在 2024 年的指引中,那些合約是否已經簽完畢?那麼,大約是 5 億美元嗎?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
I'd really rather not got them at this point. There's a lot of moving parts in the cash guide as Tom mentioned previously, but yeah, I'd really rather not ballpark that. But we're still in discussions with the government on that contract, and we need to negotiate that really holistically, so I'd rather not give you specifics on the cash impact.
我現在真的不想得到它們。正如湯姆之前提到的,現金指南中有很多變動的部分,但是是的,我真的不想對此進行大致的估算。但是我們仍在與政府就該合約進行討論,我們需要全面地進行談判,因此我不想向您透露有關現金影響的具體資訊。
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
Tom Steely - EVP and CFO
I'll probably just like a little color there because I think as you reference back to the Q3 call, your question kind of get your head around, that was that me back half of the year that the omnibus approach, the 17 subs being put on contract was a pathway for us to still make our guide last year, right? And we had the early question on saws right now. So although that's viable and that's still out there, and the industry still believes that's a very efficient way to get the most ships on contract built fastest. Right now, as the CR just has an anomaly in there for the first 2 of the 17 boats, and we're working very closely with our Navy partner to get those on contract near term.
我可能只是想在這裡加一點色彩,因為我認為當你回顧第三季度的電話會議時,你的問題有點讓你困惑,那是我在去年半年採用的綜合方法,17 個潛艇簽訂了合同,這是我們去年仍然能夠制定指南的途徑,對嗎?我們現在有一個關於鋸子的早期問題。因此,儘管這是可行的,而且仍然存在,但業界仍然認為這是以最快的速度建造最多合約船舶的一種非常有效的方式。目前,由於 CR 在 17 艘船中的前 2 艘出現異常,我們正在與海軍合作夥伴密切合作,以盡快簽訂合約。
So the difference between where we were, say, last quarter and this quarter is just the contracting approach, the mechanisms. Is it an omnibus of all 17, which it would impact additional contracts, or is it just two boats for FY24, an incremental approach, maybe saw still an opportunity set behind it. But it brings us a little bit of uncertainty of what was the cash perspective and outlook back in Q3 versus how we're going forward here.
因此,上個季度和本季的差異僅在於承包方式和機制。它是全部 17 艘的綜合體嗎?但這給我們帶來了一些不確定性,即第三季的現金前景和前景如何以及未來的發展如何。
All these boats will get on contract, right? We'll find a good risk equilibrium between us and our Navy partner, right, and a balance between affordability and profitability. And we'll ensure that the deal on our side obviously meets the requirements and the expectations of our customer while being true to bearing home a contract that we can go execute the cost and the schedule. It's aligned with our profitability expectations. I hope that provides a little bit more insight as far as how that relates to cash.
所有這些船都會簽訂合同,對嗎?我們會在我們和海軍合作夥伴之間找到一個良好的風險平衡點,以及可負擔性和盈利能力之間的平衡。我們將確保我們這邊的交易顯然符合客戶的要求和期望,同時忠實地履行合同,以便我們能夠按照成本和時間表執行。這與我們的獲利預期一致。我希望這能為大家提供更多關於這與現金的關係的見解。
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Thanks, Tom.
謝謝,湯姆。
And just one last one, in President Trump's first term, we all remember the whole FSA discussion going to more unmanned, lighter ships, is there any movement afoot? Have you heard anything from the new administration about their inclinations to revisit some of the recommendations back then?
最後一個問題,我們都記得,在川普總統的第一個任期內,整個 FSA 討論都在涉及更多無人駕駛、更輕型的船舶,有什麼進展嗎?您是否聽到新政府表示有意重新審視當時的一些建議?
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Not yet, but it's early. The leadership is still getting confirmed. We support obviously with our unmanned business, we support both. We think there's a high low, argument, and actually a fact that it's going to have to be executed. But no, we've not had those conversations with the new administration yet because they just aren't there yet.
還沒有,但是還早。領導層仍在確認中。我們顯然支持我們的無人業務,我們支持兩者。我們認為,這是一個有爭議的問題,但事實上,這個方案必須實施。但是,我們還沒有與新政府進行過這些對話,因為他們還沒有到場。
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
Gautam Khanna - Analyst
All right, fair enough. Thank you, guys.
好吧,夠公平。謝謝你們。
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call back over to Mr. Kastner for any closing remarks.
非常感謝。我現在不想再問任何問題。現在我想將發言權交還給卡斯特納先生,請他做最後發言。
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
Chris Kastner - President and CEO
All right, thank you for joining the call today. I appreciate everyone's participation. Thank you.
好的,感謝您今天的電話會議。我感謝大家的參與。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
That does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。