Hartford Insurance Group Inc (HIG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hartford Financial fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加哈特福德金融 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Susan Spivak, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁蘇珊·斯皮瓦克 (Susan Spivak)。謝謝。請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today for our call and webcast on fourth quarter and 2024 earnings. Yesterday, we reported results and posted all of the earnings-related materials on our website.

早安，感謝您今天參加我們關於第四季度和 2024 年收益的電話會議和網路廣播。昨天，我們報告了業績並在我們的網站上發布了所有與收益相關的資料。

Now, I'd like to introduce our speaker. To start, we have Chris Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Beth Costello, our Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, we will begin taking your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.

現在，我想介紹我們的演講者。首先，我們有董事長兼執行長 Chris Swift；接下來是我們的財務長貝絲‧科斯特洛 (Beth Costello)。在他們發表準備好的發言後，我們將開始回答大家的問題。我們的管理團隊的幾位成員也將協助您解答問題。

Just a few comments before Chris begins. Today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results could be materially different. We do not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. Investors should also consider the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from these statements.

在克里斯開始之前，我只想說幾句。今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現，實際結果可能會有重大差異。我們不承擔更新本次電話會議中提供的資訊或前瞻性陳述的任何義務。投資者還應考慮可能導致實際結果與這些陳述不同的風險和不確定性。

A detailed description of those risks and uncertainties can be found in our SEC filings. Our commentary today includes non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations and reconciliations of these measures to the comparable GAAP measures are included in our SEC filings as well as in the news release and financial supplement.

這些風險和不確定性的詳細描述可以在我們的美國證券交易委員會文件中找到。我們今天的評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的解釋和對帳均包含在我們的 SEC 文件以及新聞稿和財務補充文件中。

Finally, please note that no portion of this conference call may be reproduced or rebroadcast in any form without the Hartford's prior written consent. Replays of this webcast and an official transcript will be available on the Hartford's website for one year.

最後，請注意，未經哈特福德事先書面同意，不得以任何形式複製或重播本次電話會議的任何部分。該網絡直播的重播和官方記錄將在哈特福德網站上提供一年。

I'll now turn the call over to Chris.

我現在將電話轉給克里斯。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Before beginning, I want to take a moment to address the recent wildfires that have devastated the Los Angeles community. Our thoughts are with all those impacted by this tragedy. Our team on the ground is working tirelessly to help our customers rebuild and recover, and I thank them for their dedication.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。在開始之前，我想花點時間談談最近給洛杉磯社區帶來巨大破壞的野火。我們的心與所有受到這場悲劇影響的人們同在。我們的實地團隊正在不懈地幫助我們的客戶重建和恢復，我感謝他們的奉獻精神。

After Beth and I summarize our outstanding fourth quarter and full-year results, we will then be joined by our business leaders for a Q&A session, including Mo Tooker who was appointed President, effective tomorrow, February 1. Mo will lead all our P&C businesses and will be responsible for stewarding several enterprise-wide initiatives.

在貝絲和我總結我們出色的第四季度和全年業績之後，我們的業務領導人將與我們一起參加問答環節，其中包括被任命為總裁的莫·圖克 (Mo Tooker)，他將於明天（2 月 1 日）上任。Mo 將領導我們所有的財產和意外保險業務，並負責管理多項企業範圍的計劃。

Mo is an exceptional leader with a strong reputation for strategic growth, customer-focused solutions, underwriting discipline, and building a cohesive culture. He is ideally suited to step into the President role as we advance our growth and innovation strategy aimed at addressing our customers' changing needs.

Mo 是一位傑出的領導者，在策略成長、以客戶為中心的解決方案、承保紀律和建立凝聚力文化方面享有盛譽。隨著我們推進旨在滿足客戶不斷變化的需求的成長和創新策略，他是擔任總裁的理想人選。

So let's get started. Our fourth-quarter results capped off another outstanding year of financial performance and strategic achievements. These results highlight the strength of our franchise, particularly our exceptional underwriting execution, extensive distribution relationships, and an unparalleled customer experience. I wanted to extend my heartfelt thanks to our dedicated employees. Your unwavering commitment and hard work are the driving force behind our success.

那麼就讓我們開始吧。我們第四季的業績為我們又一個出色的財務業績和策略成就年度畫上了圓滿的句號。這些結果凸顯了我們特許經營的實力，特別是我們卓越的承保執行力、廣泛的分銷關係和無與倫比的客戶體驗。我想向我們敬業的員工表達衷心的感謝。您堅定不移的承諾和努力工作是我們成功背後的驅動力。

Reflecting on some key achievements from 2024 for both the quarter and the year. Top-line growth in Commercial Lines was 6% for the quarter with an underlying combined ratio of 87.1%. For the year, growth was 9%, and the underlying combined ratio of 87.9% was consistent with prior year.

回顧 2024 年本季和全年的一些關鍵成就。本季商業險的營收成長率為 6%，綜合成本率為 87.1%。全年成長率為 9%，87.9% 的基本綜合比率與前一年持平。

Personal Lines achieved 9.3 points of underlying combined ratio improvement in the quarter, including over 10 points in auto. For the year, Personal Lines delivered an underwriting gain, including an auto underlying loss ratio that was 1 point better than our expectations. We continue to achieve strong renewal written pricing increases across P&C during the quarter, including notable double-digit increases in commercial and personal auto, commercial property, homeowners, and general liability.

個人險本季基礎綜合比率改善了 9.3 個百分點，其中車險改善了 10 個百分點以上。全年而言，個人險實現了承保收益，其中汽車基礎損失率比我們的預期高出 1 個百分點。本季度，我們繼續在財產和意外事故險種中實現強勁的續保承保價格增長，其中商業和個人汽車險、商業地產、房主險和一般責任險均實現顯著的兩位數增長。

Group Benefits delivered an impressive core earnings margin of 7.8% for the quarter and 8.2% for the year, led by strong life and disability results. And our investment portfolio continues to generate solid performance. All these items contributed to an outstanding core earnings ROE of 16.7% for the year.

集團福利險本季核心獲利利潤率高達 7.8%，全年核心獲利利潤率高達 8.2%，其中人壽和傷殘險業績表現強勁。我們的投資組合持續保持穩健的績效。所有這些因素共同促成了全年核心獲利 ROE 高達 16.7% 的優異表現。

Let me dive deeper into the performance of each of our businesses. Our Commercial Lines business achieved significant top-line growth while maintaining highly profitable underlying margins. Written premium growth was driven by strong pricing increases across most lines double-digit new business growth in our SME-focused business and exposure growth that continues to benefit from a resilient economy.

讓我更深入地了解我們每個業務的表現。我們的商業險業務實現了顯著的營收成長，同時維持了高利潤的基礎利潤率。承保保費成長主要得益於大多數險種的強勁漲價、中小企業業務的兩位數新業務增長以及繼續受益於強勁經濟的風險敞口增長。

As expected, underlying margins for the year were consistent with 2023, reflecting our steadfast commitment to disciplined underwriting, while sustaining industry-leading performance. Favorable underwriting results in property, along with strong renewal written pricing execution across all lines offset industry-wide elevated liability severity.

正如預期，今年的基本利潤率與 2023 年保持一致，反映了我們對嚴格承保的堅定承諾，同時保持了行業領先的業績。財產險承保業績良好，加上險種續保定價執行力度強勁，抵銷了全行業責任險嚴重程度的上升。

Beth will provide specifics around prior year development in her comments, but I wanted to take a moment to address our general liability reserves. Based on our fourth-quarter review, we have strengthened our general liability reserves by $130 million before tax. We believe that we have addressed the most recent trends and have adjusted our ultimate losses accordingly, reflecting the potential for increasing settlement costs due to a higher percentage of returning representation across all claim sizes and the rise in average settlement rates.

貝絲將在她的評論中提供有關前幾年發展的具體信息，但我想花點時間來談談我們的一般責任準備金。根據我們第四季的審查，我們已將一般責任準備金增加 1.3 億美元（稅前）。我們相信，我們已經解決了最近的趨勢，並相應地調整了我們的最終損失，這反映了由於所有索賠規模的回歸代表比例更高以及平均解決率上升導致的解決成本增加的可能性。

Moving into each of our commercial lines businesses. Small Commercial remains the cornerstone of growth and profitability for The Hartford, setting an industry standard that is difficult to replicate in the market. I am very pleased to share that for the sixth consecutive year, Keynova Group has ranked The Hartford as the number one small commercial carrier in overall digital capabilities, an important competitive advantage in this market. Our top ranking reflects our commitment to providing exceptional functionality, ease of use, and unparalleled support and access to our agents and customers.

進入我們每一個商業線路業務。小型商業仍然是哈特福德成長和獲利的基石，樹立了市場上難以複製的行業標準。我很高興地告訴大家，Keynova Group 連續第六年將哈特福德評為整體數位能力第一的小型商業營運商，這是該市場的重要競爭優勢。我們的頂級排名反映了我們致力於為代理商和客戶提供卓越的功能、易用性以及無與倫比的支援和訪問。

Our financial performance reflects this top ranking where we achieved a record-breaking written premium of $5.5 billion in 2024, including $1.1 billion of new business while extending a decade-long trend of annual sub-90 underlying combined ratios. With another year of exceptional results in relentless advancement of our capabilities, I remain incredibly bullish on the outlook for our small commercial business.

我們的財務表現反映了這一頂級排名，我們在 2024 年實現了創紀錄的 55 億美元的承保保費，其中包括 11 億美元的新業務，同時延續了十年來每年低於 90 的基礎綜合比率的趨勢。在我們不斷提升自身能力的另一年裡，我們取得了卓越的成績，我對我們的小型商業業務的前景仍然非常樂觀。

Our middle and large commercial organization continues to demonstrate strong growth and underlying profitability. We are capitalizing on elevated submission flow (technical difficulty) in part by our strategic investments to expand product capabilities and enhance the efficiency of the broker and agent experience. Our investments in middle in large commercial position us well to drive additional top-line growth and deliver exceptional results.

我們的中型和大型商業組織繼續表現出強勁的成長和潛在的獲利能力。我們正在利用提升的提交流程（技術難度）部分地透過我們的策略投資來擴展產品功能並提高經紀人和代理人體驗的效率。我們對中大型商業的投資使我們能夠推動額外的營收成長並取得卓越的績效。

While fourth quarter new business was slower than previous quarters, full-year performance included strong top line growth, and an underlying margin that remained below 90%. Written premium growth reflects strong renewal rate execution and a 16% increase in middle market new business with robust growth across nearly all product lines led by Construction and Marine.

雖然第四季的新業務成長速度低於前幾季度，但全年業績表現強勁，營收成長強勁，基本利潤率仍低於 90%。已承保保費成長反映了強勁的續保率執行和中端市場新業務16%的成長，幾乎所有產品線都實現了強勁成長，以建築和船舶為首。

In 2025, we expect to sustain our track record of delivering meaningful growth with underwriting discipline. Global Specialty had an exceptional year, maintaining excellent underlying margin performance in the low to mid-80s for the past three years. Our competitive position, breadth of products, and solid renewal written pricing drove strong gross written premium growth and record new business. This expansion was fueled by significant contributions from Global Re and our Wholesale business.

2025 年，我們期望能夠延續以往的業績記錄，透過嚴格承保紀律實現有意義的成長。全球特種業務部度過了出色的一年，過去三年一直保持著 85% 左右的優異基礎利潤率。我們的競爭地位、產品廣度以及穩定的續保定價推動了強勁的保費成長並創下了新業務記錄。此次擴張得益於 Global Re 和我們的批發業務的重大貢獻。

We remain excited about our position in the wholesale market and across global specialty with execution that has never been stronger.

我們對自己在批發市場和全球專業市場中的地位仍然感到興奮，並且執行力從未如此強大。

The transformational work we have done over the last five years has put us in a strong position to accelerate our market-leading competitive advantage, driven by technology, data science, and an experienced workforce.

我們在過去五年中所做的轉型工作使我們處於有利地位，在技術、數據科學和經驗豐富的員工的推動下，加速我們市場領先的競爭優勢。

Whether in standard lines or E&S lines, we are gaining market share due to our unique underwriting capabilities and strong distribution relationships. Across commercial lines, our continued emphasis on property expansion generated 16% premium growth this year. We achieved our full-year goal ending the year with $3 billion in written premium and plan to continue building on this success in 2025.

無論是在標準險種還是 E&S 險種中，我們都憑藉獨特的承保能力和強大的分銷關係獲得市場份額。在商業險種方面，我們繼續專注於房地產擴張，今年的保費增加了 16%。我們以 30 億美元的承保保費實現了全年目標，並計劃在 2025 年繼續鞏固這一成功。

We remain confident that the market conditions support earnings strong risk-adjusted returns through disciplined underwriting while maintaining a stable approach to catastrophe risk management. Despite industry-wide elevated catastrophe losses, we are proud that our full-year CAT ratio remained flat with 2023, even with our significant property portfolio expansion.

我們堅信，透過嚴格的承保，同時維持穩定的巨災風險管理方法，市場條件能夠支持獲利獲得強勁的風險調整報酬。儘管整個行業的巨災損失較高，但我們感到自豪的是，即使我們的房地產投資組合大幅擴張，我們的全年巨災損失率仍與 2023 年持平。

Moving to pricing. In commercial lines, renewal written pricing in the quarter, excluding workers' compensation of 9.7% was up 40 basis points from the prior quarter. All in, ex comp renewal written pricing in commercial lines remain comfortably above loss cost trends. Workers' compensation pricing was slightly down sequentially.

轉向定價。在商業險種方面，本季續保書面定價（不包括 9.7% 的工人賠償）較上一季上漲了 40 個基點。整體而言，商業險的續保報價仍遠高於損失成本趨勢。工人賠償價格較上季略有下降。

As we look to 2025 pricing, we are focused on keeping pace with loss cost trends across commercial lines with our diversified and expanding product portfolio and innovative mindset, we are primed to continue to grow market share at highly attractive margins.

展望 2025 年的定價，我們專注於憑藉多元化和不斷擴大的產品組合以及創新思維，跟上商業領域損失成本趨勢，我們已準備好繼續以極具吸引力的利潤率擴大市場份額。

Turning to Personal Lines. 2024 was a transformative year, positioning us well for the future. We have positioned the business with new products and capabilities, revamped our operating routines, and equipped ourselves with data and technology resources. We have faced business and environmental challenges with unparalleled determination, and I want to recognize the team's hard work and commitment to our vision and strategy.

轉向個人線路。 2024 年是改變的一年，為我們的未來做好了準備。我們為業務定位了新的產品和能力，改善了營運流程，並配備了數據和技術資源。我們以無與倫比的決心面對商業和環境挑戰，我要表揚團隊的辛勤工作以及對我們的願景和策略的承諾。

For 2024, in auto, we achieved significant rate increases across the book driving an overall auto underlying loss ratio improvement of 7.3 points, over 1 point better than the high end of our expectations. As a result of the significant written pricing actions that we'll earn into the book, combined with moderating severity trends, we expect continued underlying combined ratio improvement to reach the mid-90s during 2025.

展望 2024 年，在汽車領域，我們實現了全線費率的大幅提升，推動汽車整體基礎損失率改善 7.3 個百分點，比我們預期的高端高出 1 個百分點以上。由於我們將在帳面上採取重大書面定價行動，加上嚴重程度趨勢緩和，我們預計到 2025 年，綜合比率將繼續改善，達到 95% 左右。

Our homeowners business had an exceptional year, highlighted by an impressive underlying combined ratio for the quarter, the best we've seen in over a decade, and a slightly improved CAT ratio in a year of elevated industry catastrophe losses.

我們的房主業務度過了出色的一年，其中最突出的是本季度令人印象深刻的基礎綜合比率，這是我們十多年來見過的最佳水平，並且在行業巨災損失較高的一年中，CAT 比率略有改善。

Pricing remained strong all year, outpacing underlying loss cost trends. Substantial investments have significantly improved price to risk matching and enhanced underwriting capabilities that are benefiting the homeowners book more broadly. With our rates and insurance to value keeping pace with loss trend, we are confident about our strong position in the market.

全年定價保持強勁，超過了潛在的損失成本趨勢。大量的投資顯著改善了價格風險匹配度並增強了承保能力，從而使房屋保險受益匪淺。由於我們的費率和保險價值與損失趨勢保持同步，我們對自己在市場上的強勢地位充滿信心。

Turning to Group Benefits. Our strong core earnings margin in 2024 demonstrates focused execution, a resilient economy, improved mortality trends, and continued strong disability results. Group Life mortality trends were favorable, though they are expected to remain above prepandemic levels.

轉向團體福利。我們 2024 年強勁的核心獲利率體現了專注的執行力、強勁的經濟、改善的死亡率趨勢和持續強勁的殘疾結果。團體人壽死亡率趨勢良好，但預計仍將高於疫情前的水平。

The full-year disability loss ratio of 68% primarily reflects favorable long-term disability trends, offset by pressure in paid family and medical leave products. These lead products are highly utilized and valued by employees, and we are implementing the necessary rate and underwriting actions to improve the margins. Overall, the benefit landscape is evolving with increased awareness of features and benefits which is positively impacting our supplemental products such as critical illness, hospital indemnity, and accident.

全年 68% 的殘疾損失率主要反映了長期殘疾趨勢的良好，但帶薪家庭和醫療假產品的壓力抵消了這一趨勢。這些主要產品受到員工的高度利用和重視，我們正在實施必要的費率和承保行動以提高利潤率。總體而言，隨著人們對功能和福利的認識不斷提高，福利格局正在發生變化，這對我們的重大疾病、住院補償和意外事故等補充產品產生了積極影響。

We continue to expect the group benefits market to remain dynamic with digital transformation, product innovation and increasing customer demands. As a result, we are investing in this business and have a clear road map that I am confident will only strengthen our market leadership position.

我們繼續預計，隨著數位轉型、產品創新和不斷增長的客戶需求，團體福利市場將保持活力。因此，我們正在投資這項業務，並制定了清晰的路線圖，我相信這只會加強我們的市場領導地位。

Looking ahead, we expect a modest increase in sales during 2025 and are off to a solid start. Core earnings margins in recent years have exceeded our long-term targets. However, we continue to expect a core earnings margin of 6% to 7% in this business with disability incidence trends returning to historic levels.

展望未來，我們預計 2025 年銷售額將溫和成長，並且已經取得了良好的開端。近年來，核心獲利利潤率已經超出了我們的長期目標。然而，隨著殘疾發生率趨勢恢復到歷史水平，我們仍然預計該業務的核心獲利利潤率將達到 6% 至 7%。

Moving to investments. The portfolio continues to support The Hartford's financial and strategic goals performing well across a range of asset classes and market conditions. Beth will provide more details.

轉向投資。該投資組合繼續支持哈特福德的財務和策略目標，在一系列資產類別和市場條件下表現良好。Beth 將提供更多詳細資訊。

In closing, excellent fourth quarter results capped a year of outstanding financial performance, positioning a sustained, consistent, and superior results in 2025. I remain incredibly optimistic about our future because 2024 financial results have showcased the effectiveness of our strategy in the value in our ongoing investments.

最後，出色的第四季業績為這一年的出色財務表現畫上了圓滿句號，為 2025 年持續、一致、卓越的業績奠定了基礎。我對我們的未來仍然非常樂觀，因為 2024 年的財務表現證明了我們的策略在持續投資價值方面的有效性。

Commercial Lines continues to maintain excellent underlying margins while delivering robust top line growth. Group Benefits core earnings margin remains outstanding. We have achieved key milestones in our personal lines journey, and plan to return auto to targeted profitability by mid-2025.

商業險種持續維持優異的基本利潤率，同時實現強勁的營收成長。集團福利核心獲利利潤率依然出色。我們在個人險業務發展過程中已取得多項重要里程碑，並計劃在 2025 年中期使汽車保險恢復盈利目標。

Investment income remained strong, supported by attractive yields and a diversified, durable portfolio of assets, and share repurchases and dividends remain our primary capital management tool. As our businesses continue to generate excess capital, we will proactively manage capital resources to further drive shareholder value.

投資收入保持強勁，受有吸引力的收益率和多元化、持久的資產組合的支持，股票回購和股息仍然是我們的主要資本管理工具。隨著我們的業務不斷產生過剩資本，我們將積極管理資本資源，進一步提高股東價值。

All these factors contribute to my excitement and confidence about the future of The Hartford and our ability to extend our track record of delivering industry-leading financial performance.

所有這些因素都讓我對哈特福德的未來以及我們延續行業領先財務業績記錄的能力感到興奮和信心。

Now I'll turn the call over to Beth to provide more detailed commentary on the quarter.

現在我將把電話轉給貝絲，讓她對本季提供更詳細的評論。

Thank you, Chris. Core earnings for the quarter were $865 million or $2.94 per diluted share with a full-year core earnings ROE of 16.7%. Commercial Lines had a strong quarter with core earnings of $665 million, written premium growth of 6% and an underlying combined ratio of 87.1%. Small Commercial continues to deliver excellent results with written premium growth of 9%, including 22% new business growth and an underlying combined ratio of 86.7%. This is the 18th straight quarter of an underlying combined ratio below 90%.

謝謝你，克里斯。本季核心收益為 8.65 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 2.94 美元，全年核心收益 ROE 為 16.7%。商業險本季表現強勁，核心獲利達 6.65 億美元，承保保費成長 6%，基礎綜合成本率為 87.1%。小型商業險持續取得優異的業績，承保保費成長 9%，其中新業務成長 22%，綜合成本率為 86.7%。這是連續第 18 季綜合比率低於 90%。

Middle and Large Commercial had another quarter of strong profitability with an underlying combined ratio of 90.2% and slightly improved from the prior year and written premium growth of 5%, reflecting lower new business as we remain disciplined, particularly with elevated general liability severity loss trends. Global Specialties'fourth-quarter underlying combined ratio was an excellent 83.6%, with record earned premium of $865 million.

中型和大型商業險本季獲利表現強勁，基礎綜合成本率為 90.2%，較上年略有改善，承保保費增長 5%，反映出我們繼續嚴守紀律，新業務減少，尤其是在一般責任嚴重損失趨勢上升的情況下。Global Specialties 第四季的基礎綜合成本比率達到出色的 83.6%，已賺保費達到創紀錄的 8.65 億美元。

Written premium growth of 3% in the quarter reflects lower new business in primary and excess casualty and from our global reinsurance business, which declined 14%, primarily due to lower premium in Latin America. Global Specialty written premium, excluding Global Re, was up 6%.

本季承保保費成長 3%，反映原保險和超額傷亡險新業務減少，以及全球再保險業務下降 ​​14%，這主要是由於拉丁美洲保費下降。不包括全球再保險 (Global Re) 在內的全球特殊險承保保費上漲了 6%。

In Personal Lines, core earnings for the quarter increased to $155 million, including the first underwriting gain in two years with an underlying combined ratio of 90.2%, driven by a 17.3 point implement in the loss ratio over the prior year. The fourth quarter auto underlying combined ratio of [103] improved 10.5 points from the 2023 period, and homeowners produced an outstanding underlying combined ratio of 61.7%.

個人險方面，本季核心收益增至 1.55 億美元，包括兩年來的首次承保收益，基礎綜合成本率為 90.2%，得益於損失率較上年同期上升 17.3 個百分點。第四季汽車基礎綜合比率為 [103]，較 2023 年同期改善了 10.5 點，房主基礎綜合比率高達 61.7%，表現十分出色。

Written premium in Personal Lines increased 12% in the fourth quarter, in part driven by steady and successful rate actions. In auto, we achieved written pricing increases of 19.1% and earned pricing increases of 21.9%.

個人險承保保費在第四季度增加了 12%，部分原因是得益於穩定且成功的利率行動。在汽車領域，我們的書面價格上漲了 19.1%，實際價格上漲了 21.9%。

In homeowners, written pricing increases were 13.9% and 14.9% on an earned basis. Additionally, new business growth was robust in both homeowners and auto with homeowners more than doubling to $59 million, and auto increasing by 18% to $77 million.

對於房主來說，書面價格上漲了 13.9%，而實際價格上漲了 14.9%。此外，房主和汽車領域的新業務成長強勁，其中房主業務成長一倍多，達到 5,900 萬美元，汽車業務成長 18%，達到 7,700 萬美元。

The Personal Lines fourth quarter expense ratio of 26.5% increased from the prior year by 1.9 points, primarily driven by higher direct marketing costs, higher staffing costs, and higher commissions, partially offset by the impact of higher earned premium. Total P&C net unfavorable prior accident year development with in core earnings was $97 million before tax, primarily driven by $141 million of asbestos and environmental development.

個人險第四季費用率為 26.5%，較上年同期增加 1.9 個百分點，主要由於直接行銷成本、員工成本和佣金增加，但部分抵銷了已賺保費增加的影響。事故年度前期財產和意外事故淨不利發展總額（包括核心收益）為稅前 9,700 萬美元，主要受 1.41 億美元的石棉和環境發展影響。

Excluding the A&E development, core prior accident year net development was favorable by $44 million due to reserve reductions in workers' compensation, catastrophes on professional liability, and personal auto, partially offset by increases in general liability and commercial auto.

除 A&E 發展外，核心前事故年度淨發展有利 4,400 萬美元，原因是工人賠償、專業責任和個人汽車災難的準備金減少，部分被一般責任和商業汽車的增加所抵消。

As Chris mentioned, we strengthened our general liability reserves this quarter by $130 million before tax. This included strengthening to the 2015 to 2018 accident years, driven by higher-than-expected construction defect claim activity in those years.

正如克里斯所提到的，本季我們增加了 1.3 億美元的稅前一般責任準備。其中，2015 年至 2018 年事故發生率有所加強，原因是這些年建築缺陷索賠活動高於預期。

In addition, across our general liability lines, we strengthened the incurred, but not reported reserves for more recent accident years, as we observed an increase in severity on reported claims above our expectations and anticipate a higher claim severity trend on unreported claims as the industry continues to face increasing settlement costs with rising attorney representation rates and higher average settlement rates.

此外，在我們的一般責任險種中，我們加強了最近幾年事故中已發生但未報告的準備金，因為我們觀察到已報告索賠的嚴重程度超出我們的預期，並且預計未報告索賠的索賠嚴重程度趨勢會更高，因為隨著律師代理率上升和平均和解率上升，該行業繼續面臨不斷增加的和解成本。

We completed our A&E reserve study in the quarter, resulting in an increase in reserves of $203 million, comprised of $167 million for asbestos and $36 million for environmental. As I mentioned, $141 million impacted core earnings and $52 million was recorded as a deferred gain, exhausting the ADC cover we have for A&E. As a reminder, we have recorded a total of $850 million before tax as a deferred gain within other liabilities for A&E as of December 31.

我們在本季完成了 A&E 儲備研究，結果儲備增加了 2.03 億美元，其中石棉儲備 1.67 億美元，環境儲備 3,600 萬美元。正如我所提到的，1.41 億美元影響了核心收益，5,200 萬美元被記錄為延遲收益，耗盡了我們為 A&E 提供的 ADC 保障。提醒一下，截至 12 月 31 日，我們已在 A&E 的其他負債中記錄了總計 8.5 億美元的稅前遞延收益。

For our Navigators ADC, in 2024, we have amortized $145 million of the total $209 million deferred gain. Based on our estimate of payment patterns, we expect the remaining balance of $64 million to be amortized in 2025. This will positively impact net income and have no impact to core earnings.

對於我們的 Navigators ADC，到 2024 年，我們已攤銷總 2.09 億美元遞延收益中的 1.45 億美元。根據我們對付款模式的估計，我們預計剩餘的 6,400 萬美元將在 2025 年攤提。這將對淨收入產生正面影響，但不會對核心收益產生影響。

With respect to CATs, P&C current accident year catastrophes in the fourth quarter were $80 million before tax, which was essentially flat to the prior year and included $68 million from Hurricane Millan, as well as net reductions for cash incurred earlier in the year of $18 million.

就 CAT 而言，第四季的財產和意外事故本年度巨災損失為 8000 萬美元（稅前），與上年基本持平，其中包括颶風米蘭造成的 6800 萬美元損失，以及今年早些時候發生的現金淨減少額 1800 萬美元。

For the year, CAT totaled $768 million. We continue to actively manage our CAT exposure through aggregation management and underwriting discipline, especially in certain higher-risk areas.

全年 CAT 總額達 7.68 億美元。我們繼續透過聚合管理和承保紀律積極管理我們的巨災風險，特別是在某些高風險領域。

Additionally, we have a robust and comprehensive reinsurance program on both a per occurrence and aggregate basis. In terms of our catastrophe reinsurance program renewal on January 1, we were very pleased with the placements and terms and conditions for our programs.

此外，我們擁有強大而全面的按每次事故和累積計算的再保險計劃。就我們 1 月 1 日續簽的巨災再保險計劃而言，我們對計劃的安排和條款和條件非常滿意。

Our expiring core per occurrence catastrophe protection was renewed at an approximate 10% decrease in cost on a risk-adjusted basis, which based on publicly available information, compares favorably with the overall market and speaks to the quality of our underwriting, strong reinsurer relationships and favorable experience.

我們即將到期的核心每次災難事故保障在風險調整後的成本下降了約 10%，根據公開信息，這與整體市場相比具有優勢，證明了我們的承保質量、強大的再保險關係和良好的經驗。

Additionally, we continue to strategically leverage the combination of traditional reinsurance capacity with the sponsorship of our catastrophe bonds, Foundation Re, to ensure robust and diversified protection for our portfolio.

此外，我們繼續策略性地利用傳統再保險能力與我們的巨災債券 Foundation Re 的贊助相結合，以確保為我們的投資組合提供強勁而多樣化的保護。

As of January 1, after the reset of our catastrophe bonds, our occurrence program provides protection from peak peril up to a gross loss event of $1.5 billion. The majority of that protection is secured on a multiyear basis.

自 1 月 1 日起，在我們的巨災債券重置後，我們的事故發生計畫可為高峰災害提供保護，直到發生高達 15 億美元的重大損失事件。大部分的保護都是以多年期為基礎。

We also renewed our aggregate treaty under the same structure and at a favorable decrease in cost on a risk-adjusted basis. The continuing strength and diversification of our property, occurrence, and aggregate protection aligns with and supports our strategic growth in property writing.

我們還在相同結構下續簽了總體合同，並在風險調整後以有利的成本下降進行了續約。我們在財產、發生和整體保護方面的持續實力和多樣化與我們在財產保險方面的策略增長一致並為其提供了支持。

Although it is too early to estimate the potential losses from the current California wildfires, we are closely monitoring the situation in areas where we have insured properties and businesses at risk. Our current reinsurance programs includes coverage for wildfires that attaches at $200 million and exhaust at $1.2 billion.

雖然現在估計加州當前山火可能造成的損失還為時過早，但我們正在密切監視我們承保的財產和企業面臨風險的地區的情況。我們目前的再保險計畫包括 2 億美元的野火保險和 12 億美元的廢氣保險。

Our reinsurance program does include provisions allowing the combination of events subject to hours and radius provisions. We have summarized the catastrophe reinsurance programs within the slide deck.

我們的再保險計劃確實包括允許根據時間和半徑規定組合事件的條款。我們在投影片中總結了巨災再保險計畫。

Moving to Group Benefits. We achieved core earnings of $139 million for the quarter. The core earnings margin of 7.8% for the quarter reflects improved life results and continued strong disability performance. The group disability loss ratio of 66.9% compared to 63.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023 was driven by a higher loss ratio in paid family and medical lead products and slightly higher LTD incidents in 2024 after two years of all-time historically low incidents, partially offset by favorable long-term disability claim recoveries.

轉向團體福利。本季我們實現核心利潤 1.39 億美元。本季核心獲利利潤率為 7.8%，反映了人壽保險結果的改善和殘障保險表現的持續強勁。團體傷殘損失率為 66.9%，而 2023 年第四季為 63.6%，原因是付費家庭和醫療主要產品的損失率較高，以及在兩年歷史最低事故發生率之後 2024 年 LTD 事故略有增加，但長期傷殘索賠恢復情況良好，部分抵消了這一影響。

The group life loss ratio of 79.9% for the quarter improved 3.1 points versus prior year, reflecting an improving mortality trend. The group benefits expense ratio of 26.7% increased 2.5 points for the quarter reflecting higher staffing costs and increased investments in technology.

本季團體人壽損失率為 79.9%，較上年同期下降了 3.1 個百分點，反映出死亡率呈現改善趨勢。集團福利費用率為 26.7%，本季增加了 2.5 個百分點，反映出員工成本增加和技術投資增加。

Fully insured ongoing sales in the quarter of $68 million combined with increased exposure on existing accounts and excellent persistency above 90%, resulted in a 1% growth in fully insured ongoing premiums.

本季全額保險持續銷售額為 6,800 萬美元，加上現有帳戶曝險的增加和 90% 以上的優異持續性，導致全額保險持續保費增加了 1%。

Turning to Investments. Our diversified portfolio continues to produce solid results. The overall credit quality of the portfolio remains high with an average credit rating of A+. For the quarter, net investment income was $714 million. The total annualized portfolio yield, excluding limited partnerships, was 4.6% before tax basis points above third quarter.

轉向投資。我們多元化的投資組合持續產生穩健的績效。投資組合的整體信用品質仍然較高，平均信用評級為 A+。本季度，投資淨收益為 7.14 億美元。不包括有限合夥企業的總投資組合年化報酬率在稅前基點基礎上比第三季高出 4.6%。

We continue to benefit from higher reinvestment rates and accretive trading activity earning into the portfolio. The fourth-quarter reinvestment yield continued to exceed the sales and maturity yield.

我們持續受益於更高的再投資率和投資組合中增值的交易活動收益。第四季的再投資收益率持續超過銷售和到期收益率。

Looking forward to 2025, we expect net investment income, excluding LPs, to be higher driven by an increased level of invested assets resulting from continued growth and anticipate yields to be marginally higher than 2024.

展望 2025 年，我們預計不包括 LP 的淨投資收入將因持續成長導致的投資資產水準上升而上漲，預計收益率將略高於 2024 年。

As expected, our fourth quarter annualized LP returns of 6.4% before tax were higher than previous quarters. We continue to anticipate LP returns to improve in 2025, exceeding 2024 on a full-year basis. Turning to capital. As of December 31, holding company resources totaled $1.3 billion.

如預期，我們第四季的 LP 年化回報率為 6.4% （稅前），高於前幾個季度。我們繼續預期 LP 回報率將在 2025 年改善，全年回報率將超過 2024 年。轉向資本。截至 12 月 31 日，控股公司資源總額為 13 億美元。

For 2025, we expect net dividends from the operating companies of approximately $2.5 billion, a 9% increase over 2024. During the quarter, we repurchased 3.4 million shares under our share repurchase program for $400 million, and we expect to remain at that level of repurchases in the first quarter. As of year-end, we had $3.15 billion remaining on our share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2026.

到 2025 年，我們預計營運公司的淨股息約為 25 億美元，比 2024 年成長 9%。本季度，我們根據股票回購計畫回購了 340 萬股，回購金額達 4 億美元，我們預計第一季的回購水準仍將保持不變。截至年底，截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，我們的股票回購授權餘額還剩餘 31.5 億美元。

To wrap up, 2024 business performance was excellent, and we are well positioned to continue to deliver on our targeted returns and enhance value for all of our stakeholders. I will now turn the call back to Susan.

總而言之，2024 年的業務表現非常出色，我們有能力繼續實現目標回報並為所有利害關係人提升價值。我現在將電話轉回給蘇珊。

We have about 30 minutes for questions. Operator, can you please repeat the instructions for asking a question.

我們有大約 30 分鐘的時間來回答問題。接線員，請您重複提問的說明。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

（操作員指示） Andrew Kligerman，道明證券。

First question, I hate to even bring this one up because the quarter was so darn excellent. But the prior year development of general liability, $130 million. Could you break out that mix between the '15 and '18 underwriting year construction [DTEC] policies versus the IBNR on the more recent accident years. What was the mix there?

第一個問題，我甚至不想提起這個問題，因為這個季度的表現實在是太棒了。但前一年一般責任的發展金額為 1.3 億美元。您能否將 2015 年和 2018 年承保年度建設 [DTEC] 保單與最近事故年度的 IBNR 進行比較？那裡的混合物是啥？

And then with that, really curious about how confident going forward, you won't likely need to take other GL charges because I think with construction defect policies, and correct me if I'm wrong, the pricing now is much higher for labor and material loads as that's probably the reason for 2015 to '18 charges. So I'm kind of curious construction defect in particular, but I think those are much tighter policies today.

然後，有了這些，我真的很好奇您對未來的信心有多大，您可能不需要承擔其他 GL 費用，因為我認為有了建築缺陷政策，如果我錯了，請糾正我，現在的勞動力和材料負荷的定價要高得多，因為這可能是 2015 年至 2018 年收費的原因。所以我對建築缺陷特別好奇，但我認為今天的政策嚴格得多。

Andrew, thank you for joining us and on the question. Let me give you some context and then I'll ask Beth to add her commentary on the splits by year. So you're right. We made a move on our reserves and added $130 million in PYD across a number of accident years in product lines. And we also did a little move in commercial auto.

安德魯，感謝您參加我們的節目並回答這個問題。讓我給你一些背景信息，然後我會請貝絲添加她對按年份劃分的評論。所以你是對的。我們調整了儲備金，在產品線發生事故的多個年份中增加了 1.3 億美元的 PYD。我們在商用汽車領域也做了一些嘗試。

So I think what I really want you to know, and you said it with this move, and Beth will explain more on some of the approach changes that we made this quarter. I feel highly confident that we put a good, if not all, a good chunk of this behind us.

所以我想我真正想讓你知道的是，你透過這項舉措表達了這一點，Beth 將進一步解釋我們本季所做的一些方法變化。我非常有信心，我們已經把大部分，即使不是全部，也已經大部分的問題拋在了身後。

And we've been working hard at getting our reserves right every quarter, but more importantly, in pricing our products for the new trend to make sure that we're improving our economics in to the extent possible. So on the PYD side, I'm highly, highly confident.

我們每季都在努力確保我們的儲備，但更重要的是，根據新趨勢為我們的產品定價，以確保我們盡可能地改善經濟狀況。因此，我對 PYD 方面非常非常有信心。

I think the implication though there is we also then needed to take them move on our 2024 accident year, where we added about 1 point on a year-to-date basis to our expectations for GL. So we needed to then true-up 2024. And then as we look to 2025, I could share with you that we have these higher loss cost trends in our assumptions. The team, our underwriters are already reacting with increased pricing, really effective 1/1 and will continue throughout the rest of the year.

我認為這意味著我們還需要對 2024 年的事故年採取行動，我們將年初至今的 GL 預期提高了約 1 點。因此我們需要在 2024 年實現目標。然後，當我們展望 2025 年時，我可以與您分享，我們的假設中存在這些更高的損失成本趨勢。我們的承銷商團隊已作出反應，提高價格，從 1 月 1 日起生效，並將持續到今年剩餘時間。

So comprehensively, I feel like we got our arms around it and are hitting the ground running as hard as we can in 2025. And if I put that all in context for you, Andrew, if all people gets it is I do believe we can generate margins that are consistent with 2024. And that's ultimately the proof of all our actions, all our strategies, all our ability to execute at a high level. And I think that's an important data point for you and others to hear.

所以綜合來看，我感覺我們已經掌握了訣竅，並將在 2025 年全力以赴。安德魯，如果我把這一切都跟你講清楚，如果所有人都明白，我確實相信我們可以產生與 2024 年一致的利潤率。這最終證明了我們的所有行動、所有策略以及所有高水準執行的能力。我認為這對您和其他人來說都是一個重要的數據點。

So I'll ask Beth to do the splits and any other commentary she'd like to make.

因此我會請貝絲做劈腿動作並發表她想做的任何其他評論。

Yeah. Thank you, Chris. So as it relates to the liability reserve increases, between sort of the older accident years, the '15 to '18 and then more recent years, I'd say the split is roughly half and half.

是的。謝謝你，克里斯。因此，就責任準備金的增加而言，在較早的事故年份（2015 年至 2018 年以及最近幾年）之間，我認為比例大約是各佔一半。

And Andrew, I would agree with your characterization on the older years that, that really is related to sort of increased costs that have happened, I think of sort of post COVID and the inflation that we've seen that really is related to a legacy book. And as we've talked about in the past, and we've made adjustments to those reserves, that's a book that we've done significant reunderwriting on and really feel it's contained in those years.

安德魯，我同意你對過去幾年的描述，這確實與已經發生的成本增加有關，我認為，在 COVID 之後，以及我們所看到的通貨膨脹確實與遺留賬簿有關。正如我們過去所談論的，我們對這些儲備做出了調整，這是一本我們已經進行過重大重新承保的書，並且確實覺得它在那些年裡是包含在內的。

The more recent years, that activity, I would characterize as more related to social inflation. And as it relates to how we approach the reserve increases this year, this quarter, I would say we do a little different approach. In the previous quarters when we had PYD in the general liability lines, we were reacting to the elevated activity we were seeing, and we were adjusting that accordingly.

最近幾年，我認為這種活動與社會通膨更加相關。至於我們如何對待今年、本季的儲備增加，我想說我們採取了略有不同的方法。在前幾個季度，當我們在一般責任險中引入 PYD 時，我們對所看到的活動增加做出了反應，並進行了相應的調整。

And if we had followed that same approach this quarter, I think our reserve strengthening would have been more consistent with what we saw in previous quarters. But given that it was another quarter of this elevated activity, this quarter, not only did we react to the observed activity.

如果我們本季也採取同樣的策略，我認為我們的儲備增強將與前幾季的情況更加一致。但考慮到這是這種活動增加的另一個季度，本季度我們不僅對觀察到的活動做出了反應。

We also increased our severity assumptions going forward for unsettled and unreported reserves, resulting in a larger increase to IBNR. And as Chris said, we also incorporated these estimates into our 2024 accident year.

我們也提高了對未結算和未報告準備金的嚴重性假設，從而導致 IBNR 大幅增加。正如克里斯所說，我們也將這些估計納入了 2024 年的事故年中。

So when we step back, when we look at the actions that we took for prior years, the actions that we've taken in the current year. We think this positions us very well going into 2025, both in terms of the overall adequacy of our GL reserves and equally important, and Chris commented on this, but I want to reemphasize it. These trends are incorporated into our pricing models going forward, and that's what our business leaders are executing on with the goal of getting pricing increases above these loss trends.

所以，當我們回顧過去，看看我們前幾年採取的行動，以及我們今年採取的行動時。我們認為，這對於我們在 2025 年處於非常有利的位置，無論是從我們 GL 儲備的整體充足性來看，還是同樣重要的是，克里斯對此發表了評論，但我想再次強調這一點。這些趨勢將納入我們未來的定價模型中，而這正是我們的業務領導者正在執行的目標，即讓價格上漲超過這些損失趨勢。

Very helpful. And just quickly on net risk premium and commercial. Small Commercial was a really strong 9%, mid-large was 5%. And I think last year, there was kind of a disconnect on -- or there was some underperformance with some of your competitors and you were able to capitalize. So I want to understand -- can the -- do you still have that momentum in small commercial in that upper single digits?

非常有幫助。並快速了解淨風險溢價和商業。小型商業零售店的比例確實達到了 9%，中大型商業零售店的比例為 5%。我認為去年，存在某種脫節——或者一些競爭對手的表現不佳，而你能夠利用這一點。所以我想了解一下——你在小型商業領域是否仍能維持這種高個位數的成長動能？

And then with mid to large at 5%, I think in the past, Mo has talked about mid being the lower end is mid being pretty robust, just like small commercial. So how sustainable is the mid-single digit in mid-large net written premium growth?

然後，對於中型到大型企業，佔 5%，我想，在過去，莫曾經談到中型企業是低端企業，中型企業相當強勁，就像小型商業企業一樣。那麼，中大型淨承保保費成長率的中等個位數有多可持續呢？

Andrew, I'll start and then ask Mo to comment. So I think on an overall basis, if you look at the components of commercial, particularly on a year-to-date basis, we feel really good about the growth, the execution, how we're capturing additional market share. So nothing philosophically is going to change in our approach other than we just need to continue to be disciplined from an underwriting side. And from quarter to quarter, you could have some variations.

安德魯，我先開始，然後請莫發表評論。因此，我認為從總體上講，如果你看一下商業的組成部分，特別是從年初至今的情況來看，我們對成長、執行以及我們如何獲得額外的市場份額感到非常滿意。因此，從哲學上講，我們的方法不會發生任何改變，除了我們只需要繼續從承保方面保持紀律。各個季度之間可能會有一些變化。

It's a competitive marketplace. Others might lean in a little bit more to us, but I really would want you to know. Yes, we want to grow and capture more market share and serve more clients and serve more of our agency needs but only in other terms and conditions and with the proper underwriting and proper pricing. And I think that's really reflected in this quarter.

這是一個競爭激烈的市場。其他人可能會更傾向於我們，但我真的希望你知道。是的，我們希望發展並佔領更多的市場份額，服務更多的客戶，滿足更多代理商的需求，但前提是遵守其他條款和條件，並採用適當的承保和適當的定價。我認為這確實反映在本季。

But Mo, what would you add?

但莫，你還想補充什麼呢？

Yeah. Maybe I'll take it a little bit deeper, Andrew. I would say that the small commercial just had a terrific year. I think 9% overall new and renewal strong, the flows continue to be really good. And this is especially in the face of some disruption around us over the past couple of years, and I think the team has really been measured in the way they've grown so that we can be consistently growing going forward.

是的。也許我應該更深入地探討一下，安德魯。我想說，小型商業廣告剛剛度過了輝煌的一年。我認為總體而言 9% 的新客戶和續約客戶數量強勁，流量持續保持良好。尤其是在過去幾年我們周圍出現了一些混亂的情況下，我認為團隊的成長方式確實得到了衡量，以便我們能夠在未來持續發展。

I think really what you saw in the quarter was our strategic advantages showing through. That's our investments in technology, helping the customer and the agent get things into the system easier. It's a data advantage.

我認為您在本季真正看到的是我們的戰略優勢得以展現。這是我們對科技的投資，幫助客戶和代理商更輕鬆地將事物納入系統。這是一個數據優勢。

And then all on top of that for small, I think we just had a really good year on the E&S binding front, and they will continue to push into the E&S space because we think we can bring our same strategic abilities into that space.

最重要的是，對於小型公司來說，我認為我們在 E＆S 裝訂方面度過了非常好的一年，他們將繼續向 E＆S 領域邁進，因為我們認為我們可以將相同的戰略能力帶入該領域。

Middle and large commercial is a little bit of a different story. We're really happy there, too, with the 9% for the year, but the market is competitive. And the team there has really tried to stay disciplined. And what we saw in the quarter was a little bit more of a competitive market, especially in the workers' comp, the GL and the umbrella space. And we're just going to make choices on that, and that's what the team did. I was really proud of what they did. But I will kind of echo Chris' comments, I think it's an out-of-pattern quarter.

中型和大型商業的情況則略有不同。我們對今年 9% 的成長率也非常滿意，但市場競爭非常激烈。那裡的團隊確實努力保持紀律。我們在本季看到市場競爭更加激烈，特別是在工傷補償、GL 和傘險領域。我們只是要對此做出選擇，而這正是團隊所做的。我對他們所做的事情感到非常自豪。但我有點贊同克里斯的評論，我認為這是一個不尋常的季度。

You'll see submission flow really good into the middle and large commercial space, especially in the lower end, to your point, the market is broadly supported from a pricing perspective. And again, the investments that we're making in that space, we're trying to take all of that advantage we have in small into the middle space. And we think that just allows us to gain market share in the middle market space over time.

您會看到提交流量非常好地流入中型和大型商業領域，特別是在低端市場，正如您所說，從定價角度來看，市場得到了廣泛支持。再次強調，我們在該領域進行的投資，旨在將我們在小型領域擁有的所有優勢運用到中型領域。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這將使我們在中端市場中獲得市場份額。

So again, I think two different stories, but confident about our ability to grow it and grow market share over time.

因此，我再次認為這是兩個不同的故事，但我對隨著時間的推移我們發展和擴大市場份額的能力充滿信心。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的布萊恩·梅雷迪斯。

First one, Beth, I was trying to get a baseline on kind of what the underlying loss ratio looks like in commercial lines with some of the engine notes you were talking about. So what was the kind of favorable non-CAT kind of property loss? And then any current year development when you increase at IBNR anything from 2024 that may have impacted it?

首先，貝絲，我想根據您談到的一些引擎說明，了解商業線路中潛在的損失率的基線情況。那麼，什麼是有利的非 CAT 類型的財產損失呢？那麼，當您增加 IBNR 時，今年的任何發展是否可能從 2024 年開始對其產生影響？

Brian, if I understand your question, Beth can add her commentary, I think what I said in my commentary was for the GL line, it was a 1 point true up on a year-to-date basis for the elevated combined ratio given some of the things we just talked about from PYD. It's probably 2.5 points in the quarter on a comparable basis year over year. And then we're also asking about property, I think I heard.

布萊恩，如果我理解你的問題，貝絲可以補充她的評論，我想我在評論中所說的是針對 GL 線的，考慮到我們剛剛從 PYD 談到的一些事情，今年迄今為止，由於綜合比率上升，該比率上漲了 1 點。與去年同期相比，本季的可比成長率可能為 2.5 個百分點。然後我們也詢問了有關財產的問題，我想我聽說過。

Yeah. Yeah. I think you mentioned that non-CAT weather was a little bit favorable this quarter.

是的。是的。我記得您提到過本季非 CAT 天氣狀況稍微好一些。

So I know you're jumping and trying to get numbers from me. So I would say, yeah, I would say on a year-to-date basis compared to prior year, our non-CAT property experience is about [9/10 of 1 point] better than prior year. From an expectation side, it's probably 1.5 points, a little better than our expectation, but Beth.

所以我知道你很想從我這裡得到數字。因此我想說，是的，我想說與去年同期相比，我們的非巨災財產體驗比去年同期好大約 [9/10，滿分 1 分]。從預期來看，這可能是 1.5 分，比我們的預期要好一點，但是 Beth。

No, I would agree with that. And as you know, a non-CAT property can obviously bounce around quarter-to-quarter. But looking at the numbers that Chris just quoted relative to the prior year. I'd also say that we did take underwriting actions in '23 on our property book. So some of that we would expect would continue to benefit.

不，我同意這一點。如您所知，非 CAT 資產的價格顯然會在每個季度之間出現波動。但看看克里斯剛才引用的數字與前一年相比。我還要說的是，我們確實在23年對我們的財產帳簿採取了承保行動。因此，我們預計其中一些將繼續受益。

That's helpful. And then I was just wondering, is it possible to give us a little more color on perhaps exposure to the L.A. wildfires here, kind of what your share in the area is do you have commercial exposure with your small commercial business. Do you think you're going to hit your CAT reinsurance programs here?

這很有幫助。然後我只是想知道，是否可以給我們更多關於洛杉磯山火的信息，您在該地區的份額是多少，您的小型商業業務是否有商業影響力。您認為您會在這裡實現您的 CAT 再保險計劃嗎？

Yeah. I'm going to -- Beth and I tag team. And I would say, I think you're very observant that this is, for us, is going to be both a commercial lines event and a personal lines event. If I look at our personal lines market share for home and auto and because obviously some cars that will also be damaged. We're less than 1%.

是的。我要去——貝絲和我組隊。我想說，我認為你非常敏銳，對我們來說，這既是一場商業活動，也是一場個人活動。如果我看一下我們的家庭和汽車個人險市場的份額，顯然有些汽車也會受到損害。我們不到1％。

We've managed California very tightly, I would say, over the last seven or eight years, Beth, with concentrations of risk that we had in certain zones that we needed to remediate. So personal lines, obviously, will have some losses. And then our bigger market share is in our middle market book and our our product, small commercial. So we do have a larger market share there. We'll have to see how things develop.

貝絲，我想說，在過去的七、八年裡，我們對加州的管理非常嚴格，某些區域的風險集中，我們需要補救。因此個人險顯然會遭受一些損失。我們的更大市場份額在於中端市場書籍和我們的產品以及小型商業產品。因此我們在那裡確實擁有更大的市場份額。我們必須觀察事態如何發展。

And we've just been recently been able to get on site and start to do more inspections. We have a reinsurance business that will have a little bit of exposure and then we'll have to see what the fair plan does with any assessment. So instead of just putting numbers out, we really wanted to just be more deliberate and thoughtful. And when we're ready, Brian, we'll share with you what we believe and see.

我們最近才剛到達現場並開始進行更多檢查。我們有再保險業務，會有一定的風險敞口，然後我們必須看看公平計劃對任何評估有何影響。因此，我們不只是公佈數字，我們還希望做得更加謹慎和周到。布萊恩，當我們準備好了，我們會與你分享我們的相信和看到的。

So Beth, what would you add?

那麼 Beth，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. So again, maybe to put it in context, as you asked to our reinsurance program. As we sit here today and we look at our exposures, as I said in my prepared remarks, our first part of our per occurrence coverage losses once they've reached $200 million. So that first layer, we have $150 million of protection in excess of $200 million. We retained 60% of that, 40% of that is reinsured, and very likely that we will be in that layer.

是的。所以，也許可以把它放在上下文中，就像你問到我們的再保險計劃一樣。今天，當我們坐在這裡，看著我們的風險敞口時，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們的每次事故承保損失的第一部分已經達到 2 億美元。所以第一層，我們有超過 2 億美元的 1.5 億美元的保護。我們保留了其中的 60%，40% 是再保險，很有可能我們會處於這一層。

The next layer then comes in at $350 million. That layer, again, provides $150 million excess of $350 million. We retained 25%. We reinsure 75% Sitting here today, it's not entirely clear that we'll be at that level. We could very well be below that.

下一層的投資金額是 3.5 億美元。該層再次提供了 3.5 億美元以外的 1.5 億美元。我們保留了25%。我們再保險的比例為 75%，但今天我們仍不完全清楚我們是否能達到這個水準。我們很可能低於這個數字。

Again, all of that would exclude Global Re. Global Re has own retrocession program. That program attaches when US property losses hit $60 million, and we would -- right now, we'd expect to be below that. So hopefully, that gives you some context of just how we're framing it.

再次強調，所有這些都將 Global Re 排除在外。Global Re 有自己的迴轉保額方案。當美國財產損失達到 6,000 萬美元時該計劃就會生效，而我們目前預計該數字將低於這一水平。所以希望這能給你一些關於我們如何建構它的背景資訊。

And the last thing I'll just remind you of is that as it relates to wildfire losses, up to losses of $350 million, excluding Global Re, those losses would count towards our aggregate treaty, which again, attaches similar to last year at $750 million.

我最後要提醒大家的是，就山火損失而言，最高損失為 3.5 億美元（不包括 Global Re），這些損失將計入我們的總條約金額，該金額與去年的 7.5 億美元類似。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

My first question is on disability. The loss ratio ticked up by 3.3 points from last year. I was hoping to get a sense how much of that was driven by paid family and medical leave versus higher LTD incidents.

我的第一個問題是關於殘疾問題的。賠付率較去年同期上升了3.3個百分點。我希望了解其中有多少是由帶薪家庭和醫療假期以及更高的 LTD 事件所推動的。

Elyse, thanks for joining us. I would say when we characterize our -- excuse me, our disability book, it includes both the LTD portion, the SDD portion, and then obviously, some of our new paid medical and family lead products.

伊莉絲，感謝您加入我們。我想說，當我們描述我們的——對不起，我們的殘疾人手冊時，它包括 LTD 部分、SDD 部分，然後顯然還包括我們的一些新的付費醫療和家庭主導產品。

So on a, call it, year-over-year basis, I would say that PFML incident trends that are elevated is creating 3 points of that difference. Our long-term disability incidences, 1 point, and then the offset to that is our recoveries or terminations are probably 1 point better. So that's the step between years I would have easy to think about.

因此，從年比來看，我會說 PFML 事件趨勢的上升造成了 3 點的差異。我們的長期殘疾發生率為 1 點，然後與此相抵消的是，我們的恢復或終止可能好 1 點。所以這是我很容易想到的年份之間的步驟。

And then my second question is on the kind of the view you provided on commercial lines for 2025. Chris, I think in response to an earlier question, you said kind of like flat underlying combined ratio. And you pointed to that contemplating continued higher GL picks.

我的第二個問題是您對 2025 年商業線路的看法。克里斯，我想在回答之前的問題時，你說過有點像平坦的底層綜合比率。您指出正在考慮繼續提高 GL 選擇率。

But then you guys did say that there was 1.5 points of favorable non-CAT in '24. Are you assuming that, that normalizes like and reverses in your outlook for flat margins in '25? And is there anything else we need to think about kind of when thinking about commercial margins in '25?

但你們確實說過，24 年非 CAT 的有利分數為 1.5 分。您是否認為這會正常化，並在您對 25 年利潤率持平的預測中出現逆轉？當我們考慮 25 年的商業利潤時，還需要考慮其他什麼嗎？

Yeah. I would say, again, you heard it right, right? I think we're ending the year at [87.9%] on an underlying combined ratio in commercial lines and I think we can produce a consistent result in 2025. That's what I want you to hear. And if you want to do all the pluses and minuses by product line and things like that, I'm not going to do that.

是的。我再說一遍，你沒聽錯吧？我認為今年年底商業險的基本綜合賠付率將達到 [87.9%]，我認為我們可以在 2025 年取得穩定的業績。這就是我想讓你聽到的。如果你想按產品線列出所有的優點和缺點之類的東西，我是不會這麼做的。

I'm going to tell you that, that's what we're going to deliver in totality with a diversified product line point of view, executing strongly, particularly in the general liability lines. And if there's returns to normal or if there's additional benefits that we're able to get. That will all be part of the results that we'll communicate quarterly to you on it, but I'm not going to get into a reconciliation by product line.

我要告訴你，這就是我們要從多元化產品線的角度全面交付的產品，並且強力執行，特別是在一般責任險方面。如果恢復正常或我們能夠獲得額外福利。這些都將成為我們每季向您通報的結果的一部分，但我不會按產品線進行對帳。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

You might have addressed this, so apologies if this is a little redundant. So if we think about the GL reserve charge this quarter and the two smaller ones in prior quarters, can you maybe help us get a sense of how much has loss picks would have gone up from the initial loss pick assumptions for the year, like just for the entire book? Yeah, that would be the first question.

您可能已經解決了這個問題，因此如果這有點重複，請原諒。因此，如果我們考慮本季的 GL 準備金費用以及前幾季的兩個較小費用，您能否幫助我們了解一下，相對於今年的初始損失假設，損失估計會增加多少，例如整個帳簿的損失估計？是的，這是第一個問題。

Yeah. I think -- Bob, thanks for the question. It's actually a good one. All I'm going to ask you to do is wait until we file the 10-K and schedule Ps, and you'll see it there. And Beth, do you want to add any color right now.

是的。我認為——鮑勃，謝謝你的提問。它確實是一件好事。我要請您做的就是等到我們提交 10-K 和附表 Ps，然後您就會在那裡看到它。貝絲，你現在想添加一些顏色嗎？

But I would say that the overall trends, Bob, that we've talked about as far as attorney rep rate slipping falls in certain areas, just the dollar levels of to settle some of these cases, the time limit demands that the planet bar uses the sort of jam us. I mean, that is generally consistent, and nothing is changing.

但是鮑勃，我想說，就我們討論過的律師代表率下滑而言，總體趨勢是在某些領域，僅僅是解決這些案件的美元水平，時間限制要求行星律師協會使用某種堵塞我們。我的意思是，這總體上是一致的，沒有任何改變。

And as Beth said, we did take is just a more holistic approach to estimating that these trends most likely will continue, and that's what's reflected in the charge. But I'd ask you just to wait for the K and the schedule Ps to be filed, and you can see those trends.

正如貝絲所說，我們確實採取了一種更全面的方法來估計這些趨勢很可能會持續下去，而這正是收費所反映的。但我請你只需等待 K 和 P 表提交，你就會看到這些趨勢。

Okay. Got it. My follow-up is Group Benefits. One thing you previously said with moderating incidents and fast claims recovery really drove a lot of the outperformance in the prior quarters, especially in long-term disability.

好的。知道了。我的後續工作是團體福利。您之前說過，事故發生率的降低和索賠恢復的加快確實推動了前幾季的優異表現，尤其是在長期殘障保險方面。

Now it does look like it's changing this quarter to be a more normalized trend. Is there like -- how should we think about what is a normal run rate for that long-term disability business in terms of incidents and claims recovery knowing that the last two years was abnormally low?

現在看來，本季的趨勢確實正在變得更加正常化。是否存在這樣的情況——在知道過去兩年的事故和索賠恢復率異常低的情況下，我們應該如何看待長期殘疾業務的正常運作率？

Yeah. I'll do my best to try to explain that to you. And then I'm going to ask Mike Fish to add his commentary.

是的。我會盡力向你解釋這一點。然後我將請麥克·菲什添加他的評論。

I would first start with saying that, remember, a lot of our clients and policies have 90 or even 180-day elimination period. So really, the last two quarters of the year were not out of elimination period. And we're still sort of in pick. And when we look at sort of trends in totality, those are some of the judgments we always make and from quarter to quarter, we might make judgments that are different on what's emerging versus what's still in pick.

首先我要說的是，請記住，我們的許多客戶和保單都有 90 天甚至 180 天的免賠期。因此實際上，今年最後兩季尚未走出淘汰期。我們仍然處於選擇階段。當我們從整體上看待趨勢時，這些是我們始終會做出的一些判斷，而且，每個季度，我們可能會對新興趨勢和仍在出現的趨勢做出不同的判斷。

So I would say, though, that overall -- over the last two years, our disability incidence trends have been like at all-time lows and rock bottoms. And what we're beginning to reflect now is just, I'll call it, a more normalized return to mean assumptions so that we don't get caught short in any of our reserving positions here.

因此我想說，總體而言——在過去兩年中，我們的殘疾發生率趨勢一直處於歷史最低點。我們現在開始思考的只是，我稱之為更規範化的迴歸均值假設，這樣我們就不會在任何儲備立場上陷入困境。

So those are the two components I would share with you, and I'll ask Mike to add any of his color.

所以這些就是我想與你們分享的兩個組件，然後我會讓 Mike 添加他的任何顏色。

Chris, I think you captured that well. The only couple of items that I would add to your point on what we saw with historically low incidence levels, and that was wayback in 2022 and 2023 accident years.

克里斯，我認為你很好地理解了這一點。關於您的觀點，我只想補充幾點，我們看到了歷史上最低的發病率，那是在 2022 年和 2023 年的事故年份。

And when we look at that and we look at where we're running more recently, I would say, our recent experience that you're seeing here in the quarter would correlate back to about a five-year average of incidents, historical sort of average. And that's about where we set our pricing. So as you know, we've got rate guarantees generally two, three, or maybe beyond three years.

當我們觀察這一點並回顧我們最近的運行情況時，我想說，您在本季度看到的近期經驗與五年平均事件數、歷史平均值相關。這就是我們制定價格的地方。如您所知，我們的利率保證期一般為兩年、三年，甚至三年以上。

So we're looking at a longer-term average on both incidents and recovery. So again, I'll just leave you with incidence rates more recently trending back to a historical five-year average. And then our recovery experience has been very favorable. Our team does an outstanding job on the claims side, and we expect to see strong performance moving forward.

因此，我們正在關注事故發生和恢復的長期平均值。因此，我再次向大家介紹最近趨向於歷史五年平均值的發生率。我們的恢復經歷非常有利。我們的團隊在索賠方面表現出色，我們期待未來會取得強勁表現。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬許‧尚克（Josh Shanker）。

Chris, at for all the detail on the capsules. One more question, it's more philosophical. I think that you've gotten yourself comfortable that you've put this issue to bed. Generally, putting something to bed means that you've put a layer of caution on top of something beyond your best actuarial estimate of where it is so you don't have to revisit that again. But I know that you're always trying to get to the best number.

克里斯 (Chris)，請了解有關膠囊的所有細節。還有一個問題，它更具哲學意義。我想你已經安心地解決了這個問題。一般來說，「將某事擱置」意味著，你對某事採取了超出你對其最佳精算估計的程度的謹慎態度，這樣你就不必再次重新審視它了。但我知道您一直在努力取得最佳數字。

In the grand scheme of things, $130 million is not a lot of reserves given the size of your general liability book. Have you done something differently other than given the data you have, going to the most precise number you can? Or you put a layer of cost on top of the number?

從整體來看，考慮到您的一般責任帳簿的規模，1.3 億美元的儲備金並不算多。除了提供現有數據並盡可能得出最精確的數字之外，您是否還做了其他不同的事情？還是你在數字之上加上一層成本？

Well, Josh, I don't know that I'd call it caution. But as I said in my response to the first question, we did evaluate the reserves a little differently this quarter. And that's why the reserve charge was higher than what you've seen in previous quarters.

嗯，喬什，我不知道這是否可以稱為謹慎。但正如我在回答第一個問題時所說，本季我們對儲備的評估確實略有不同。這就是為什麼儲備費用高於前幾季的水平。

So I'll leave you with that. That was how we have evaluated sort of the current trend and an expectation that, that trend will continue. We have included that in our estimate for prior accident years. We've built that into our call for the '24 accident year. And as I said, it's built into our pricing models going forward.

所以我就把這個留給你了。這就是我們對當前趨勢的評估以及對該趨勢將持續下去的預期。我們已將其納入前幾年事故的估計之中。我們已經將其納入了 24 年事故年的呼籲之中。正如我所說，它已被納入我們未來的定價模型中。

Okay. And then on the personal lines business, I see you're growing in homeowners still bleeding from auto. To the extent that the product design, is it generally designed to be sold as a home auto bundle? And is there any risk of adverse selection selling monoline homeowners?

好的。然後在個人險業務方面，我發現房主在汽車保險方面仍在不斷增長。就產品設計而言，它通常設計為作為家用汽車套裝出售嗎？並且，出售單一險種的房主是否有逆向選擇的風險？

Thank you, Josh, for seeing the improvement that Melinda and the team have there. So I think we're in a good position. I'm going to look to Melinda her color, but I think right now, we probably bundle 75% of our homeowners business with auto. We're not a big mono-line homeowners player. We do do it on occasion, particularly as our agency channel is being revived a little bit with an older product. So that's what I would say. But Linda, what would you add?

謝謝你，喬希，看到梅琳達和團隊所取得的進步。所以我認為我們處於有利地位。我會向梅琳達學習她的觀點，但我認為現在，我們可能會將 75% 的房主業務與汽車業務捆綁在一起。我們並不是一家專注於單一業務的大型房主公司。我們確實偶爾會這樣做，特別是當我們的代理商管道透過舊產品稍微恢復活力時。這就是我要說的。但是琳達，您還有什麼要補充的呢？

Yeah. I think we're really proud of the performance of our home business as evidenced by the results this quarter and on a full year basis. And if you look at our home business over a long period of time, generated combined ratios in the low 90s, which really compares favorably to the industry. So as we think about the performance, the investments we've made and the products and capabilities, we believe we can grow the business with our auto and where we write at monoline, do so in a way that is judicious and thoughtful.

是的。我認為，我們對我們的本土業務的表現感到非常自豪，本季和全年的業績證明了這一點。如果您長期觀察我們的家庭業務，您會發現其綜合比率在 90% 以下，與行業相比確實具有優勢。因此，當我們考慮業績、我們所做的投資以及產品和能力時，我們相信我們可以透過汽車業務以及我們在單一保險業務上的成長，以明智和深思熟慮的方式進行。

And Josh, I would just add one last point. I think the team, led by our risk management team, our underwriters have really taken to heart modeling sort of on a by-peril basis, all the things that could go wrong from weather, from an earthquake, from wildfires as we're seeing.

喬希，我只想補充最後一點。我認為，由我們的風險管理團隊和核保人員領導的團隊已經真正認真地建立了基於風險的模型，涵蓋了我們所看到的天氣、地震、野火等所有可能出錯的情況。

So I really have the utmost confidence in the improvements we've made, one in our modeling, our risk selection, matching price and risk. And I like the opportunity to continue to grow thoughtfully in the homeowners market because, again, it's a needed product. There's a lot of disruption in those marketplaces. But we're going to be -- continue to be cautious and thoughtful, but I think we've got a pretty good track record.

因此，我對我們所取得的改進充滿信心，其中包括我們的建模、風險選擇、匹配價格和風險。我喜歡有機會繼續在房主市場上深思熟慮地發展，因為這又是一個需要的產品。這些市場存在著許多混亂。但我們會繼續保持謹慎和深思熟慮，但我認為我們的記錄相當不錯。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

I had a follow-up question on the general liability reserves. And I appreciate it sounds like you guys took a more proactive approach on the reserves this quarter. I guess I'm wondering now after the changes you've made, what sort of severity assumption you guys are embedding in the reserves on the more recent years, and what you guys are thinking going forward in 2025?

我有一個關於一般責任準備金的後續問題。我很欣賞你們本季在儲備方面採取了更積極主動的方式。我現在想知道，在你們做出這些改變之後，你們在最近幾年的儲備中嵌入了什麼樣的嚴重性假設，以及你們在 2025 年的發展計劃是什麼？

Yeah, David, it's Chris. I would say, in aggregate, when you think about sort of liability lines, I would say we're in low double-digit range currently. Some of the primary lines of business might be a little lower in our general industries, and then the umbrella and the excess might be a little higher sort of even in the '15, '16 range.

是的，大衛，我是克里斯。我想說，總的來說，當你考慮負債額時，我會說我們目前處於兩位數的低點範圍內。在我們的一般行業中，一些主要的業務線可能會稍微低一些，而保護性業務和超額業務可能會稍微高一些，甚至在 '15、'16 年的範圍內也是如此。

But I would say for the recent year, we're probably exiting low double digits in aggregate, and that's what we need to react to from a pricing side. That's already baked into all our pricing models that our underwriters are executing to beginning here in January, and that's the mission for next year, particularly in any liability line, including in commercial auto.

但我想說，就最近一年而言，我們的整體銷售可能將達到兩位數的低位，這就是我們需要從定價方面做出反應的原因。這已經融入我們承保人從一月開始執行的所有定價模型中，這也是明年的使命，特別是在任何責任險領域，包括商用汽車保險。

We've got to stay up with these elevated loss cost trends. And I know the team knows how to do that very, very well in an empathetic way while still taking care of customers and agents, but we got to protect our margins.

我們必須關注這些不斷上升的損失成本趨勢。我知道團隊知道如何以同理心的方式非常好地做到這一點，同時仍然照顧客戶和代理商，但我們必須保護我們的利潤。

Got it. Understood. And then just another question, and I guess this one is a bigger picture question just in terms of the reserving process. Could you guys remind me when you first started recognizing this impact of higher attorney rep and I guess, have you guys changed your approach to just detecting these trends over the last year or so? I'm just wondering if there's been anything that you guys have done that might be picking up on it a little bit more than in the past.

知道了。明白了。然後還有另一個問題，我想這個問題在預訂流程方面是一個更大的問題。你們能否提醒我一下，你們是什麼時候開始認識到更高的律師代表資格的影響的？我只是想知道，你們所做的事情是否比過去更能體現這一點。

Yeah, I wouldn't say there's anything dramatic. I really thought the question was just meant to torture us, David. But I think our listening post what we're doing with our claim lawyers, our claim teams in totality there's nothing I don't think we missed per se. I just think it's a magnitude of sort of some of the strategies that the plan for uses, particularly with time bard demands.

是的，我不認為這有什麼戲劇性。我真的以為這個問題只是為了折磨我們，大衛。但我認為，我們的監聽站與我們的索賠律師、我們的索賠團隊一起做了一切，我認為我們本身沒有錯過任何事情。我只是認為這只是該計劃所採用的一些策略的量級，特別是時間要求方面。

And again, that's you get into -- if you get that wrong, I mean the potential magnitude is really greater on the claims side. We saw much more slip-and-fall activity as we talked about in the past. So I don't think there's anything that we're missing. If anything, maybe we were just a little too optimistic trends were going to be and that's what I would say, Beth.

再說一次，這就是你要面對的——如果你弄錯了，那麼索賠方面的潛在影響會更大。正如我們過去談到的，我們看到了更多的滑倒事件。所以我認為我們沒有遺漏任何東西。如果有什麼的話，也許我們對趨勢有點過於樂觀了，這就是我想說的，貝絲。

Yeah. The only thing I would add to that, David, is that last quarter, we talked about the fact that we saw activity that was above our expectations. So the notion around increased attorney rep to increased severity, some of that was built into our assumptions. It's just last quarter when we, as Chris pointed out, activity coming in, time limit demand and attorney rep rates changing from what our expectation was. That's where we made some of those adjustments.

是的。大衛，我唯一想補充的是，上個季度，我們談到了我們看到的活動超出我們預期的事實。因此，關於律師代表人數增加意味著嚴厲程度增加的觀點，部分已融入我們的假設。正如克里斯指出的那樣，就在上個季度，活動開始進行，時間限制需求和律師代表率都與我們的預期不同。我們就是在那裡做出一些調整的。

And I think we commented on this last quarter that when we look overall at our general liability business, we've definitely seen a decrease in frequency over the last several years. So point of very favorable underwriting actions that we've taken.

我認為我們在上個季度評論過，當我們整體回顧我們的一般責任業務時，我們確實看到過去幾年的頻率有所下降。因此，我們採取了非常有利的核保行動。

What we were seeing, though, is that when we broke out the categories of claims into no attorney rapid litigated all three of those buckets from a frequency perspective, were coming down. It's just that the frequency decrease was higher in non-attorney, non-litigated bucket than some of the other buckets. And that, again, these claims have seasoned, became more evident in the last quarter or so.

然而，我們看到的是，當我們將索賠類別分為無律師快速訴訟時，從頻率的角度來看，這三個類別都在下降。只是非律師、非訴訟類別的頻率下降幅度比其他類別高。而且，這些說法在過去一個季度左右變得更加明顯。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Congratulations on your promotion, Mo. In your comments, you spoke about the increase in the expense ratio in Personal Lines. I was wondering if you could unpack what's going on there a little bit in more detail. Just it's kind of counterintuitive given the moderate premium and rate increases are flowing through and some of the new business restrictions that have been put in place prior to see your expense ratio going up, if that makes sense.

祝賀你升職，莫。在您的評論中，您談到了個人險費用率的增加。我想知道您是否可以更詳細地講解那裡發生的事情。只是，考慮到適度的保費和費率上漲以及之前實施的一些新的業務限制，這有點違反直覺，會導致您的費用率上升，如果這說得通的話。

I think, Greg, I'll ask Milena to add to her color. It could be a little bit of mix, right, as we mix in a little bit more agency. We're still investing in the platform somewhat, we're at the tail end of the direct response rollout of prevail. So that's in 45, 50 states. We are contemplating a broader agency strategy that we're spending some money on.

格雷格，我想我會讓米萊娜為她增加一些顏色。這可能是一點點混合，對吧，因為我們混合了更多的代理。我們仍在對該平台進行一些投資，我們正處於直接回應推出的最後階段。所以有 45 到 50 個州都有這種情況。我們正在考慮一個更廣泛的代理策略，並為此投入一些資金。

But Melinda, would you add anything else?

但是梅琳達，您還有什麼要補充嗎？

Yeah, I would just maybe -- sorry. I just want to revisit some of the best comments because she alluded to the themes earlier. In the quarter, we were up about 2 points. That was largely driven by marketing and by higher commissions. And the premium growth that we are driving, certainly, over time and the PIF growth that we are seeing in home that's all come with investment in new business growth. And so marketing spend and commissions are the primary driver in the quarter.

是的，我可能只是——抱歉。我只是想重溫一些最好的評論，因為她之前提到了這些主題。本季度，我們領先約 2 個百分點。這主要是受行銷和更高的佣金推動。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們所推動的保費成長以及我們在國內看到的 PIF 成長都源自於對新業務成長的投資。因此，行銷支出和佣金是本季的主要驅動力。

Got it. And I guess a reserve question, but an entirely different subject area. Everyone seems to be still taking A&E reserves. And this is like this number goes away. Do you have some perspective like on outstanding claim counts you would think that this would start to subside. It just doesn't for the industry and for you, guys?

知道了。我猜這是一個保留問題，但是是一個完全不同的主題領域。似乎每個人都仍在使用 A&E 儲備。就好像這個數字消失了一樣。您是否認為，從未決索賠數量來看，這種情況會開始消退。這對這個行業和你們來說都不合適，夥計們？

Well, that's a hell of the last question, Greg, of the day. So I would share with you just a high-level observation and Beth can add hers.

好吧，格雷格，這是今天的最後一個問題了。因此，我只想與你們分享一個高層次的觀察，Beth 可以補充她的觀點。

I think frequency of claims is coming down, particularly in the Miso area. But severity is going up as again, the plan is trying to extract the same amount of economics or greater economics per claim than in sort of the older days. So yeah, I'm hopeful that at least the frequency trends could continue, and we'll try to manage the severity trends as best way we can.

我認為索賠頻率正在下降，特別是在米索地區。但嚴重性再次上升，因為該計劃試圖從每個索賠中獲得與過去相同或更多的經濟效益。是的，我希望至少頻率趨勢能夠持續下去，並且我們會盡力以最佳方式管理嚴重程度趨勢。

And yeah, that's why we did the A&E cover years ago when we did. Obviously, we fully utilized it, which turned out to be a good trade for our shareholders, and we'll just manage it the best we can going forward, but it's a continuing issue for sure.

是的，這就是我們幾年前登上 A&E 封面的原因。顯然，我們充分利用了它，這對我們的股東來說是一筆很好的交易，我們將盡最大努力管理它，但這肯定是一個持續的問題。

Yeah, I don't think I'd add too much to that. I mean, obviously, the frequency piece, some of it is a little bit of just what our expectations were. So you might see a little bit of a decrease, we would have expected maybe more. And so some of that impact our study each year, kind of where our particular insured and the insurance that we provide for particular insured, where that shows up sort of as we do the ground-up study by insured, and that can change year to year.

是的，我想我不會對此添加太多內容。我的意思是，顯然頻率部分有一點符合我們的預期。因此，您可能會看到一點點下降，我們預計可能會更多。因此，其中一些因素會對我們的每年研究產生影響，例如我們的特定被保險人以及我們為特定被保險人提供的保險，這些因素會在我們對被保險人進行從頭開始的研究時顯現出來，並且這些因素每年都會發生變化。

We had a little bit more activity we saw on accounts where we just had a little bit more exposure than some of the others. And then on environmental, there, we had a little bit of just increase in remediation costs, one coming from a coal ash claim and things like that. So similar themes, I would say, to what we've seen in the past.

我們在帳戶上看到的活動稍微多一些，我們的曝光率比其他一些帳戶高一些。然後就環境而言，我們的補救成本略有增加，其中一個來自煤灰索賠等。所以我想說，這些主題與我們過去所見的非常相似。

We are out of time for questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Susan Spivak for closing remarks.

我們已經沒有時間回答問題了。我想將電話轉回給蘇珊·斯皮瓦克 (Susan Spivak) 做最後發言。

Thank you for all joining us today. And as always, please reach out with any additional questions. We look forward to seeing many of you over the next coming weeks, and have a great day.

感謝大家今天的出席。像往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請與我們聯繫。我們期待在接下來的幾週內見到你們，祝你們有愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。