Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Grand Vacations Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mark Melnyk, Senior Vice President of IR and G&A. Please go ahead, sir.

早上好，歡迎來到希爾頓分時度假俱樂部 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想把電話轉給 IR 和 G&A 高級副總裁 Mark Melnyk。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and welcome to the Hilton Grand Vacations Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements, and these statements are effective only as of today. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our 10-K or other applicable SEC filings. We'll also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find definitions and components of such non-GAAP numbers as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures discussed today in our earnings press release and on our website at investors.hgv.com. Our reported results for all periods reflect accounting rules under ASC 606, which we adopted in 2018. Under ASC 606, we're required to defer certain revenues and expenses related to sales made in the period when a project is under construction and then hold off on recognizing those revenues and expenses until the period when construction is completed. 

謝謝接線員，歡迎來到希爾頓分時度假俱樂部 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。提醒一下，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所表明的結果存在重大差異，並且這些陳述僅在今天有效。我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們的 10-K 或其他適用的 SEC 文件的風險因素部分。我們還將提到某些非 GAAP 財務措施。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 investors.hgv.com 上找到此類非 GAAP 數字的定義和組成部分，以及今天討論的非 GAAP 和 GAAP 財務指標的調節。我們報告的所有期間的結果都反映了我們在 2018 年採用的 ASC 606 下的會計規則。根據 ASC 606，我們需要遞延與項目在建期間的銷售相關的某些收入和費用，然後推遲在施工完成之前確認這些收入和費用。

To help you make more meaningful period-to-period comparisons, you can find details of our current and historical deferrals and recognitions in Table T1 of our earnings release. For ease of comparability and to simplify our discussion today, our comments on adjusted EBITDA and our real estate results we refer to results excluding the net impact of construction-related deferrals and recognitions for all reporting periods. A complete accounting of our historical deferral and recognition activity can be found in Excel format on the Financial Reporting section of our Investor Relations website. In a moment, Mark Wang, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide highlights from the quarter in addition to an update of our current operations and company strategy. After Mark's comments, our Chief Financial Officer, Dan Matthews, will go through the financial details for the quarter. Mark and Dan will then make themselves available for your questions. With that, let me turn the call over to our President and CEO, Mark Wang. Mark?

為了幫助您進行更有意義的期間比較，您可以在我們的收益發布表 T1 中找到我們當前和歷史延期和確認的詳細信息。為了便於比較並簡化我們今天的討論，我們對調整後的 EBITDA 和我們的房地產結果的評論我們指的是不包括所有報告期間與建築相關的延期和確認的淨影響的結果。可以在我們投資者關係網站的財務報告部分以 Excel 格式找到我們歷史延期和認可活動的完整記錄。稍後，我們的總裁兼首席執行官馬克王將提供本季度的亮點以及我們當前運營和公司戰略的最新情況。在 Mark 發表評論後，我們的首席財務官 Dan Matthews 將審閱本季度的財務細節。 Mark 和 Dan 將回答您的問題。有了這個，讓我把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官馬克王。標記？

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. This past quarter was a great finish to a standout year. Contract sales of $634 million remained nicely ahead of 2019 and EBITDA of $253 million was nearly 25% higher than our pro forma 2019 with margins nearly 300 basis points higher. We had a solid contribution from new buyer channels, which has been a key area of focus and investment with continued strength in leisure demand and good execution from our teams, we've been successful at activating our package sales pipeline to drive tour growth, which generates NOG and importantly, embeds future value into the business. I'm extremely proud of our entire team and what they accomplished in the past year. We laid the groundwork for a combined organization through the launch of major programs and integration initiatives. And due to their efforts, we had several milestones faster than we initially modeled while outperforming our initial underwriting expectations. We've also continued to benefit from consumers pivot toward experiences in leisure travel in particular. And while we're monitoring the macro environment, our leisure focus and strong value proposition leaves us well positioned for these ongoing shifts in consumer spending preferences. 

大家早上好，歡迎來到我們的第四季度財報電話會議。過去的這個季度為出色的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。 6.34 億美元的合同銷售額在 2019 年之前保持良好，2.53 億美元的 EBITDA 比我們 2019 年的備考高出近 25%，利潤率高出近 300 個基點。我們從新的買家渠道做出了堅實的貢獻，這一直是我們關注和投資的關鍵領域，休閒需求持續強勁，我們團隊的執行力很好，我們成功地激活了我們的套餐銷售渠道，以推動旅遊增長，這產生 NOG，重要的是，將未來價值嵌入到業務中。我為我們整個團隊以及他們在過去一年所取得的成就感到非常自豪。我們通過啟動主要計劃和整合舉措，為合併後的組織奠定了基礎。由於他們的努力，我們比最初建模的速度更快地實現了幾個里程碑，同時超出了我們最初的承保預期。我們還繼續受益於消費者特別是休閒旅行體驗的轉變。在我們監控宏觀環境的同時，我們的休閒重點和強大的價值主張使我們能夠很好地應對消費者支出偏好的這些持續變化。

Earlier this quarter, we wrapped up another successful LPGA tournament of Champions, which was the second held under the HGV brand. We had great attendance during the week, and our media exposure was up dramatically across all channels this year, with social media impressions tripling to over $750 million and active engagements up sixfold to $1.2 million on top of expanded international television and media coverage. The tournament also serves as our marquee ultimate access evented a year, and we kicked off this calendar with exclusive programming set up for our members throughout the week. As a result, we generated 40% more tours from the tournament this year with new buyer tours more than doubling versus last year. During the tournament, I spent a lot of time with our owners and guests, and I can say that the energy around our brand and the engagement of our member base is really high, which leaves us optimistic about '23 and beyond. We're confident in our business as evidenced by our guidance, and we're committed to enhancing shareholder value through continued capital returns. 

本季度早些時候，我們結束了另一場成功的 LPGA 冠軍錦標賽，這是 HGV 品牌下舉辦的第二場錦標賽。本週我們的出席人數眾多，今年我們在所有渠道的媒體曝光率都大幅上升，社交媒體印象增加了兩倍，超過 7.5 億美元，積極參與增加了六倍，達到 120 萬美元，此外還有擴大的國際電視和媒體報導。錦標賽也是我們一年一度的終極訪問活動，我們在整個星期為我們的會員設置了獨家節目，從而拉開了這個日曆的序幕。因此，我們今年的巡迴賽巡迴賽增加了 40%，新買家巡迴賽比去年增加了一倍多。在比賽期間，我花了很多時間與我們的業主和客人在一起，我可以說圍繞我們品牌的能量和我們會員群的參與度非常高，這讓我們對 23 歲及以後感到樂觀。正如我們的指導所證明的那樣，我們對我們的業務充滿信心，我們致力於通過持續的資本回報來提高股東價值。

Now before I get into the details of the quarter, I'll start by taking a quick look at what we've accomplished over the past 12 months. It was around this time last year that I said 2022 would be a transformational year for HGV, and that certainly proved to be the case. We launched HGV Max, our new membership offering that links our resort collections and was also the first major club redesign in our history. We launched HGV Ultimate Access, our exclusive experiential platform and hosted over 100,000 members and guests at over 3,000 events, including private concerts, culinary experiences, shows, excursions and sporting events. We rebranded our sales center to provide a dramatically improved experience to our marketing guests and trained our sales staff to uphold HGV's rigorous standards of integrity. We also rebranded Diamond's largest properties, adding nearly 5,700 keys in new markets like Sedona, Lake Tahoe, Palm Desert and Virginia Beach. And we also merged our financial and HR systems and integrated the former DRI teams to unify the organization under HDV culture and values. 

現在，在我進入本季度的細節之前，我將首先快速回顧一下我們在過去 12 個月中取得的成就。大約在去年的這個時候，我說 2022 年將是 HGV 的轉型年，事實證明確實如此。我們推出了 HGV Max，這是我們的新會員服務，連接了我們的度假村系列，也是我們歷史上第一個主要的俱樂部重新設計。我們推出了獨家體驗平台 HGV Ultimate Access，並在 3,000 多場活動中接待了超過 100,000 名會員和賓客，包括私人音樂會、美食體驗、表演、短途旅行和體育賽事。我們重新命名了我們的銷售中心，為我們的營銷客人提供了顯著改善的體驗，並培訓了我們的銷售人員以維護 HGV 嚴格的誠信標準。我們還重新命名了 Diamond 最大的物業，在塞多納、太浩湖、棕櫚沙漠和弗吉尼亞海灘等新市場增加了近 5,700 個鑰匙。我們還合併了我們的財務和人力資源系統，並整合了前 DRI 團隊，以在 HDV 文化和價值觀下統一組織。

From a financial perspective, we produced record cash flow and EBITDA exceeding our initial underwriting expectations. We built the largest new buyer pipeline in our history, which will provide a source of tour flow in coming years and embed additional value into the business for years to come, and we achieved an upsized cost synergy goal several quarters ahead of schedule. But equally as important for our shareholders, however, is that the Diamond acquisition has created real economic value. Dan will get into the details here in a minute that our cash flow, returns on capital and member base are all well ahead of pro forma combined entity pre-acquisition metrics. And these improvements were the results of longer-term value creation initiatives like cost efficiencies, process improvements and enhancing our product offerings rather than just taking outsized pricing. So after a year of hard work, we've laid a strong foundation to continue growing the long-term value of the business. Looking forward, 2023 will be a year for further execution of our integration plans. And we'll build upon the successful launch of both Ultimate Access and HGV Max with new programming and features will rebrand nearly a dozen additional Diamond properties to add to the Hilton Vacation Club collection. And as we've done throughout our history, we'll maintain our focus on driving new buyer sales and net owner growth. 

從財務角度來看，我們產生了創紀錄的現金流和 EBITDA，超出了我們最初的承保預期。我們建立了歷史上最大的新買家渠道，這將在未來幾年提供旅遊流量來源，並為未來幾年的業務帶來額外價值，我們提前幾個季度實現了更高的成本協同目標。但是，對我們的股東來說同樣重要的是，對 Diamond 的收購創造了實際的經濟價值。丹將在一分鐘內詳細介紹我們的現金流、資本回報率和會員基礎都遠遠領先於預估合併實體收購前指標。這些改進是長期價值創造計劃的結果，例如成本效率、流程改進和增強我們的產品供應，而不僅僅是採取過高的定價。因此，經過一年的努力，我們為繼續增加業務的長期價值奠定了堅實的基礎。展望未來，2023 年將是我們進一步執行整合計劃的一年。我們將在成功推出 Ultimate Access 和 HGV Max 的基礎上，通過新的編程和功能重新命名近十二個額外的鑽石酒店，以添加到希爾頓度假俱樂部系列中。正如我們在整個歷史中所做的那樣，我們將繼續專注於推動新買家銷售和淨所有者增長。

Now let me take you through a more detailed look at our performance in the fourth quarter. Contract sales strength was driven by the continued improvement in tour flow, which more than offset the expected normalization of VPG. Tours were nearly 85% of 2019, demonstrating continued progress in our pace of recovery. New buyer tours drove the improvement, showing the positive results from our investment efforts. Additionally, transaction volumes were exceptional this quarter, driven by the tour flow improvements and a close rate that remains near all-time highs. That close rate drove VPGs at $4,350 which remains well ahead of 2019 and decelerated only modestly from the recovery pace we saw in Q3. Turning to the demand indicators. Our system occupancy was 79%, seasonally lower than Q3 and in line with fourth quarter of last year. We saw some softening of occupancy at the end of the quarter that coincided with the holiday airline disruption and unusual storm activity in some markets but believe that those were isolated issues. Looking forward, on the book arrivals are nicely ahead of 2019 through the entire first half of '23, with particular strength in our rental arrivals. 

現在讓我帶您更詳細地了解一下我們在第四季度的表現。旅遊流量的持續改善推動了合同銷售的強勁增長，這大大抵消了 VPG 的預期正常化。遊覽佔 2019 年的近 85%，表明我們的複蘇步伐持續取得進展。新的買家參觀推動了改善，顯示了我們投資努力的積極成果。此外，由於旅遊流量的改善和接近歷史高位的成交率，本季度的交易量非常出色。這一收盤價將 VPG 推高至 4,350 美元，這仍然遠遠領先於 2019 年，並且僅比我們在第三季度看到的複蘇步伐略有放緩。轉向需求指標。我們的系統佔用率為 79%，季節性低於第三季度，與去年第四季度持平。我們看到本季度末的入住率有所下降，恰逢假日航空公司中斷和一些市場異常的風暴活動，但我們認為這些都是孤立的問題。展望未來，在 2019 年整個 23 年上半年，入賬人數遠遠超過 2019 年，我們的出租房入駐人數尤其強勁。

I'm encouraged that our marketing package pipeline ticked up slightly from Q3, but more importantly, our number of packages with set travel dates also grew, which will drive additional new buyer tour flow in the months ahead and support net owner growth. We ended the year with 519,000 members in August 3.9% on a combined basis, having grown our member base at both HGV and Diamond throughout the year. This is the highest nod we've generated since we reopened our properties in mid-2020, and I'm really pleased with the results of the investments we've made to drive new buyer channel. This combination of new buyer growth and increased member activity drove club and resort revenue to a record $155 million. And finally, our rental business produced solid revenue results owing to the strong leisure travel environment. To summarize, we feel great about how we closed out a transformational year for HGV. The teams executed against an ambitious and complex plan that involved a lot of heavy lifting, and I'm proud to say we accomplished even more than we anticipated at the close of the acquisition. We've built a strong foundation to build upon in 2023 and beyond. With our new membership, new programming, new destinations and rebranded resorts, we think that our value proposition is the strongest that it's ever been, which is why we're seeing such a great response from our owners and new buyers, and we're continuously focused on creating value for our shareholders through operational improvements of the business as well as a commitment to capital returns. With that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk you through the numbers. Dan?

我感到鼓舞的是，我們的營銷套餐管道從第三季度開始略有增加，但更重要的是，我們的固定旅行日期的套餐數量也有所增加，這將在未來幾個月推動更多的新買家旅遊流量並支持淨所有者增長。我們在 8 月結束了這一年，共有 519,000 名會員，綜合增長率為 3.9%，全年我們在 HGV 和 Diamond 的會員基礎都得到了增長。這是自 2020 年年中重新開放物業以來我們獲得的最高點頭，我對我們為推動新買家渠道所做的投資結果感到非常滿意。新買家的增長和會員活動的增加推動俱樂部和度假村收入達到創紀錄的 1.55 億美元。最後，由於休閒旅遊環境強勁，我們的租賃業務產生了可觀的收入。總而言之，我們對結束 HGV 轉型的一年感到非常高興。這些團隊執行了一項雄心勃勃且複雜的計劃，其中涉及大量繁重的工作，我可以自豪地說，我們取得的成就甚至超過了收購結束時的預期。我們已經為 2023 年及以後的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。憑藉我們的新會員、新計劃、新目的地和更名的度假村，我們認為我們的價值主張是有史以來最強大的，這就是為什麼我們看到業主和新買家的如此巨大的反應，我們通過業務的運營改進以及對資本回報的承諾，不斷專注於為我們的股東創造價值。有了這個，我會把它交給丹來告訴你這些數字。擔？

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Before we start, note that our reported results for this quarter included $3 million of sales deferrals, reducing reported GAAP revenue associated with presales of the next phase of our May project. We also recorded an associated $2 million of direct expense deferrals, resulting in a net benefit of $1 million to our reported EBITDA for the quarter. In my prepared remarks, I'll only refer to metrics, excluding the impact of deferrals, which more accurately reflects the cash flow dynamics of our financial performance during the period. We had a very strong 2022 in the midst of a material amount of integration work and major initiative launches. So we're very proud of everything that the team has accomplished. Contract sales for the year were a record $2.4 billion and EBITDA of $1 billion was nearly 40% ahead of pro forma 2019 with a margin improvement of nearly 600 basis points to 28%. And as Mark mentioned, we're extremely proud of the progress we've made on our integration and we've created real shareholder value with the acquisition. Our 2022 adjusted free cash flow of $563 million was significantly ahead of the pro forma 2019 cash flow. We've maintained our exceptional return on invested capital of over 20% on a much higher capital base, creating additional value annually. And despite several years of a pandemic, we still drove net owner growth ending 2022 with a member base of roughly 25,000 members higher than in pro forma 2019, which will drive additional future value creation. 

謝謝馬克，大家早上好。在我們開始之前，請注意我們本季度報告的結果包括 300 萬美元的銷售延期，減少了報告的與我們 5 月項目下一階段預售相關的 GAAP 收入。我們還記錄了相關的 200 萬美元直接費用遞延，從而為我們報告的本季度 EBITDA 帶來 100 萬美元的淨收益。在我準備好的發言中，我將只參考指標，不包括延期的影響，這更準確地反映了我們在此期間財務業績的現金流動態。在大量整合工作和重大舉措啟動期間，我們在 2022 年表現非常強勁。因此，我們為團隊所取得的一切成就感到非常自豪。全年合同銷售額達到創紀錄的 24 億美元，10 億美元的 EBITDA 比 2019 年預估增長近 40%，利潤率提高近 600 個基點至 28%。正如馬克所提到的，我們對我們在整合方面取得的進展感到非常自豪，我們通過收購創造了真正的股東價值。我們 2022 年調整後的自由現金流為 5.63 億美元，大大高於 2019 年的備考現金流。我們在更高的資本基礎上保持了超過 20% 的卓越投資回報率，每年創造額外價值。儘管經歷了數年的大流行，我們仍然推動了到 2022 年底的淨所有者增長，其成員基數約為 25,000 名，比 2019 年的預估高，這將推動更多的未來價值創造。

Now let's review the results for the quarter. Total revenue in the fourth quarter was just under $1 billion. We saw year-over-year revenue growth in all of our segments, led by strength in real estate and financing segments. Q4 reported adjusted EBITDA was $253 million with margins of 25%. Turning to our segments. Within real estate, total contract sales were $634 million. Sales momentum in our owner channel has remained strong and ahead of 2019 levels. And we also saw a nice jump in the recovery pace of our new buyer channel with sales quickly approaching 2019. We're pleased with the initial results of the recent investments in our new buyer channel. From the first half of the year prior to our investment through the second half of the year, we saw strong improvements in new buyer tour flow and contract sales pace against 2019 that well exceeded the growth from our owner channel and helped to drive solid NOG growth of 3.9%. We've been monetizing our package pipeline and our activated packages are at the highest level since 2019, and our investments should continue paying dividends. As Mark mentioned, we're seeing very strong arrival growth in our marketing channel as we look out over the coming months. VPG was $4,350 for the quarter, which grew against prior year and 2019. And for the year, VPG finished 31% ahead of 2019. Looking at 2023, as we've said for a number of quarters, we expect to see continued normalization of VPG performance against 2019 as we move through the year. For your modeling purposes, it's important to note that in the first quarter of '23, we're lapping the highest VPG in the history of the company. And thus, we anticipate that while VPG will be ahead of 2019, it will decline against that record from Q1 of last year. 

現在讓我們回顧一下本季度的結果。第四季度的總收入略低於 10 億美元。在房地產和金融領域的強勁帶動下，我們所有部門的收入都實現了同比增長。第四季度報告的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.53 億美元，利潤率為 25%。轉向我們的細分市場。在房地產領域，合同總銷售額為 6.34 億美元。我們的所有者渠道的銷售勢頭保持強勁，高於 2019 年的水平。我們還看到，隨著 2019 年銷售量的快速臨近，我們新買家渠道的複蘇步伐有了很大的飛躍。我們對最近對新買家渠道投資的初步結果感到滿意。從我們投資前的上半年到今年下半年，我們看到新買家旅遊流量和合同銷售速度與 2019 年相比有了顯著改善，遠遠超過了我們的業主渠道的增長，並幫助推動了 NOG 的穩健增長3.9%。我們一直在通過我們的套餐渠道獲利，我們激活的套餐處於 2019 年以來的最高水平，我們的投資應該會繼續帶來回報。正如 Mark 所提到的，我們看到未來幾個月我們的營銷渠道的到達量增長非常強勁。本季度 VPG 為 4,350 美元，與去年和 2019 年相比有所增長。全年，VPG 完成了 31% 2019 年之前。展望 2023 年，正如我們在多個季度所說的那樣，我們預計隨著這一年的推移，VPG 性能將相對於 2019 年繼續正常化。出於建模目的，請務必注意，在23 年第一季度，我們獲得了公司歷史上最高的 VPG。因此，我們預計雖然 VPG 將領先於 2019 年，但與去年第一季度的記錄相比，它會有所下降。

Cost of product was 19% of net VOI sales for the quarter. Real estate S&M expense of $243 million for the quarter was 38% of gross contract sales, similar to third quarter levels and reflecting our investments in the new buyer channel. Real estate profit was $172 million for the quarter, with margins of 36%. In our financing business, fourth quarter revenue was $71 million and segment profit was $34 million. I'd note that financing expenses this quarter included a onetime noncash true-up adjustment to the premium amortization associated with the acquired Diamond portfolio of approximately $9 million. Combined gross receivables for the quarter were $2.5 billion or $1.8 billion net of allowance and our interest income was $65 million. Our originated portfolio weighted average interest rate was 14.3%, while our acquired portfolio had a weighted average interest rate of 15.6% and includes a $6 million contra revenue for the amortization of noncash premium associated with the portfolio of real receivables that we acquired from Diamond during the acquisition. 

本季度產品成本佔 VOI 淨銷售額的 19%。本季度房地產 S&M 費用為 2.43 億美元，佔合同銷售額的 38%，與第三季度水平相似，反映了我們對新買家渠道的投資。本季度房地產利潤為 1.72 億美元，利潤率為 36%。在我們的融資業務中，第四季度收入為 7100 萬美元，分部利潤為 3400 萬美元。我注意到本季度的融資費用包括對與收購的鑽石投資組合相關的保費攤銷的一次性非現金調整，約為 900 萬美元。本季度的合併應收賬款總額為 25 億美元或扣除備抵後的 18 億美元，我們的利息收入為 6500 萬美元。我們的原始投資組合加權平均利率為 14.3%，而我們收購的投資組合的加權平均利率為 15.6%，其中包括 600 萬美元的對沖收入，用於攤銷與我們在收購。

Our allowance for bad debt was $742 million on that $2.5 billion receivable balance. Of these amounts, the acquired Diamond portfolio, which used Diamond underwriting standards, was $338 million on a portfolio balance of $709 million. Our annualized default rate for our consolidated portfolios, including the Diamond acquired and underwritten portfolios was 7.9%. This is over 100 basis points lower than last year, with both the acquired and originated portfolios continuing to demonstrate substantial outperformance from our initial underwriting assumptions. Our provision for bad debt was $39 million or 9% of owned contract sales, which remains below our steady-state expectations of a normalized provision, driven by higher down payments and continued levels of elevated prepays. In our resort and club business, our consolidated member count was $519,000. Our consolidated NOG was 3.9% at the end of the quarter, which I'd note now includes both HGV and Diamond members. Revenue was $155 million for the quarter, and segment profit was $112 million, with margins of 72%. Rental and ancillary revenues were $160 million in the quarter with segment profit of $7 million. Fourth quarter margins reflect additional expenses associated with the seasonal effect of member point conversion activity, along with the continued elevated developer maintenance fees associated with the unsold inventory from our recently opened projects. 

在 25 億美元的應收賬款餘額中，我們的壞賬準備金為 7.42 億美元。在這些金額中，所收購的鑽石投資組合（使用鑽石承保標準）為 3.38 億美元，投資組合餘額為 7.09 億美元。我們綜合投資組合（包括收購和承銷的鑽石投資組合）的年化違約率為 7.9%。這比去年低了 100 多個基點，收購和發起的投資組合繼續表現出我們最初承保假設的顯著表現。我們的壞賬準備金為 3900 萬美元，佔自有合同銷售額的 9%，這仍然低於我們對正常化準備金的穩態預期，原因是預付款增加和預付款水平持續升高。在我們的度假村和俱樂部業務中，我們的綜合會員人數為 519,000 美元。本季度末我們的綜合 NOG 為 3.9%，我注意到現在包括 HGV 和鑽石會員。本季度收入為 1.55 億美元，分部利潤為 1.12 億美元，利潤率為 72%。本季度租金和輔助收入為 1.6 億美元，分部利潤為 700 萬美元。第四季度的利潤率反映了與會員積分轉換活動的季節性影響相關的額外費用，以及與我們最近開放的項目中未售出庫存相關的開發商維護費用的持續上漲。

For remodeling, it is important to note that due to the changes made to unify the reporting of HGV and Diamond, there is a timing shift associated with Diamond's member benefit expense that will cause rental and ancillary expenses in the first half to be up materially versus the first half of 2022. For Q1 specifically, we expect that this will result in a year-over-year impact of roughly $14 million, which will impact our reported rental and ancillary profit as well as our overall adjusted EBITDA. I'd emphasize that this adjustment is only timing and reflects the change in the seasonality of expenses in the rental and ancillary segment. This year-over-year impact will reverse through the year to become a fully offsetting benefit in the back half and will not itself have any impact to rental and ancillary profit or adjusted EBITDA for the year. Bridging the gap between segment adjusted EBITDA and total adjusted EBITDA, corporate G&A was $47 million. License fees were $34 million and JV income was $3 million. Our adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was a use of $92 million, which included inventory spending of $73 million and excludes acquisition-related costs of $40 million.

對於改造，需要注意的是，由於為統一 HGV 和 Diamond 的報告所做的更改，與 Diamond 的會員福利費用相關的時間轉移將導致上半年的租金和輔助費用大幅上升2022 年上半年。具體到第一季度，我們預計這將產生大約 1400 萬美元的同比影響，這將影響我們報告的租金和輔助利潤以及我們調整後的整體 EBITDA。我要強調的是，這種調整隻是時間上的調整，反映了租賃和輔助部門支出季節性的變化。這種同比影響將在今年逆轉，成為下半年的完全抵消收益，並且本身不會對當年的租金和輔助利潤或調整後的 EBITDA 產生任何影響。為了彌補分部調整後的 EBITDA 與調整後的 EBITDA 總額之間的差距，公司 G&A 為 4700 萬美元。許可費為 3400 萬美元，合資企業收入為 300 萬美元。我們在本季度調整後的自由現金流為 9200 萬美元，其中包括 7300 萬美元的庫存支出，不包括 4000 萬美元的收購相關成本。

As we mentioned on our prior call, in Q4, we had additional contractual inventory spending for our Sesoko project, along with the payment of our cash taxes, which drove the negative adjusted free cash flow in the quarter. For the year, I'm really happy to say we generated adjusted free cash flow of $563 million, which is a record for the company. We converted 54% of our economic EBITDA into adjusted free cash flow, which was nicely inside of our 50% to 60% target range, and we expect to maintain this conversion range in the years ahead. It is important to note, however, that in 2023, specifically, we do have an additional just-in-time inventory payment for the Central in New York of roughly $140 million, which includes a payment that was deferred during the pandemic. Considering this additional payment, total inventory spend for 2023 is expected to be approximately $400 million versus $175 million in 2022. Despite that, however, we still anticipate achieving the low end of our 50% to 60% target EBITDA conversion range. 

正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，在第四季度，我們為 Sesoko 項目增加了合同庫存支出，同時支付了現金稅，這導致本季度調整後的自由現金流量為負。今年，我真的很高興地說我們產生了 5.63 億美元的調整後自由現金流，這是公司的記錄。我們將 54% 的經濟 EBITDA 轉換為調整後的自由現金流，這很好地在我們 50% 到 60% 的目標範圍內，我們預計在未來幾年保持這一轉換範圍。然而，值得注意的是，具體來說，在 2023 年，我們確實為紐約中央銀行額外支付了大約 1.4 億美元的即時庫存付款，其中包括在大流行期間推遲的付款。考慮到這筆額外付款，2023 年的總庫存支出預計約為 4 億美元，而 2022 年為 1.75 億美元。儘管如此，我們仍預計將實現 50% 至 60% 的目標 EBITDA 轉換範圍的低端。

During the quarter, the company repurchased 2.5 million shares of common stock for $100 million at an average price of $39.88. For the year, we repurchased 7 million shares of stock for $272 million. So on top of spending on our integration, funding our growth and paying down our debt, we returned nearly half of our adjusted free cash flow to our investors through share repurchases, and we're continuing that trend thus far in 2023. Through February 24, the company has repurchased an additional 1.8 million shares for $80 million. We currently have $148 million remaining of the $500 million repurchase plan approved by the Board in May of 2022, and we remain committed to enhancing the total return for our shareholders by returning capital. Turning to our outlook. We are setting our 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1.09 billion to $1.12 billion. Excluding the special reserve release that benefited our third quarter, our guidance implies EBITDA growth of 4% to 7%, which is a great result on top of the strong EBITDA growth we produced this year. For remodeling, I would note that from a seasonal perspective, Q1 EBITDA is typically lower than the preceding fourth quarter and is also typically the lowest EBITDA quarter for the year. Q1 of 2023 will also have the timing impact of the $14 million expense impact in our rental and ancillary segment that I mentioned earlier. 

本季度，公司以 39.88 美元的平均價格以 1 億美元回購了 250 萬股普通股。這一年，我們以 2.72 億美元回購了 700 萬股股票。因此，除了用於我們的整合、為我們的增長提供資金和償還債務的支出之外，我們還通過股票回購將近一半的調整後自由現金流返還給我們的投資者，並且我們將在 2023 年迄今繼續這一趨勢。到 2 月 24 日，公司又以 8000 萬美元回購了 180 萬股股票。董事會於 2022 年 5 月批准的 5 億美元回購計劃中，我們目前還有 1.48 億美元，我們將繼續致力於通過返還資本來提高股東的總回報。轉向我們的前景。我們將 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 指引設定在 10.9 億美元至 11.2 億美元的範圍內。不包括有利於我們第三季度的特別準備金釋放，我們的指導意味著 EBITDA 增長 4% 至 7%，這是我們今年產生的強勁 EBITDA 增長之外的一個很好的結果。對於重塑，我要指出的是，從季節性的角度來看，第一季度的 EBITDA 通常低於前一個第四季度，而且通常也是一年中 EBITDA 最低的季度。 2023 年第一季度還將對我之前提到的我們的租賃和輔助部門產生 1400 萬美元的費用影響。

As of December 31, our liquidity position consists of $223 million of unrestricted cash and $959 million of availability under our revolving credit facility. Our debt balance at quarter end was comprised of corporate debt of $2.7 billion and a nonrecourse debt balance of $1.1 billion. At quarter end, we had $652 million of remaining capacity in our warehouse facility, of which we had $279 million of notes available to securitize and another $338 million of mortgage notes, we anticipate being eligible following certain customary model stones such as first payment, deeding and recording. Turning to our credit metrics. At the end of Q4, the company's total net leverage was 2.4x. Finally, before we wrap up our prepared remarks, I wanted to address an item that you will be seeing in our 10-K once it is filed later today. We have identified a material weakness related to Diamond. These items did not impact our business operations or reported processes in any way. They also did not impact our current financial results or our historical results nor will they result in any revision or restatement of historical financials. We already have a remediation plan in place and we'll provide additional updates through the year, but we fully expect to have these items resolved expeditiously. We will now turn the call over to the operator, and we look forward to your questions. Operator?

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的流動性頭寸包括 2.23 億美元的無限制現金和 9.59 億美元的循環信貸額度。我們在季度末的債務餘額包括 27 億美元的公司債務和 11 億美元的無追索權債務餘額。在季度末，我們的倉庫設施有 6.52 億美元的剩餘容量，其中我們有 2.79 億美元的票據可用於證券化，另外還有 3.38 億美元的抵押票據，我們預計符合某些慣用模型石頭的資格，例如首付款、契約和錄音。轉向我們的信用指標。第四季度末，公司的總淨槓桿率為 2.4 倍。最後，在我們結束準備好的發言之前，我想談談今天晚些時候提交後您將在我們的 10-K 中看到的一個項目。我們發現了與 Diamond 相關的重大漏洞。這些項目不會以任何方式影響我們的業務運營或報告流程。它們也不會影響我們當前的財務業績或我們的歷史業績，也不會導致對歷史財務數據的任何修訂或重述。我們已經制定了補救計劃，我們將在全年提供更多更新，但我們完全希望盡快解決這些問題。我們現在將把電話轉給接線員，我們期待您的提問。操作員？

Thank you. Pad. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ben Chaiken with Crédit Suisse.

謝謝。墊。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Ben Chaiken 和 Crédit Suisse。

If I'm not mistaken, I think there's kind of 2 initiatives underway with the rebrand. I guess one is updating and rebranding the sales centers, which I think you noted on the last call is completed towards the end of '22. And then second is updating and rebranding the Diamond properties themselves. On this first part, the sales centers, is there any type of feedback whether anecdotal or otherwise to help us understand the benefit so far? And then on part 2, the property rebrand, have you started to market those properties to Hilton Honors members or is this further down the line? And I have one follow-up.

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為品牌重塑正在進行兩項舉措。我想一個是更新和重塑銷售中心，我想你在上次電話會議上提到的是在 22 年底完成的。其次是更新和重塑鑽石屬性本身。在第一部分，銷售中心，是否有任何類型的反饋，無論是傳聞還是其他方式，以幫助我們了解目前的收益？然後在第 2 部分，酒店品牌重塑，您是否開始向希爾頓榮譽客會會員推銷這些酒店，或者這是否更進一步？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Sure, Ben. So on the rebranding front, we basically have rebranded all the Legacy Diamond sales centers and implemented our HGV selling technology, our sales approach, our new training. And of course, we've now introduced HGV Max in those sales centers. So a lot of heavy lifting, great work by the team to get all that done. As far as marketing into the sales centers utilizing the Hilton database or Hilton's customer base, we sold 72,000 packages to these locations, and we're starting to see those tourists now arrive to the property. As you recall, these packages, these vacation packages we sell have a they have a 12- to 18-month window for travel. So we started selling these probably at the beginning of the second quarter of last year. So we're starting to see those guests travel. So we're starting to see some revenue synergies there. And I think some of the benefits that we've seen in our outsized VPGs last year have come through the work we've done in repositioning these sales centers and lifting up this new membership program.

是的。當然，本。因此，在品牌重塑方面，我們基本上已經對所有 Legacy Diamond 銷售中心進行了品牌重塑，並實施了我們的 HGV 銷售技術、銷售方法和新培訓。當然，我們現在已經在這些銷售中心推出了 HGV Max。團隊完成了很多繁重的工作，完成了所有工作。至於利用希爾頓數據庫或希爾頓客戶群向銷售中心進行營銷，我們向這些地點銷售了 72,000 個包裹，我們開始看到這些遊客現在來到酒店。您還記得，這些套餐，我們出售的這些度假套餐有 12 到 18 個月的旅行窗口。所以我們可能在去年第二季度初開始銷售這些產品。所以我們開始看到這些客人旅行。因此，我們開始在那裡看到一些收入協同效應。我認為我們去年在超大型 VPG 中看到的一些好處來自於我們在重新定位這些銷售中心和提升這個新會員計劃方面所做的工作。

And then switching gears a little bit, fee-for-service mix moved higher in the quarter sequentially. I think we -- I think you called out the pipeline is 85% owned, if I'm not mistaken, in the press release. How do we think about the mix in '23 and '24 for that matter?

然後稍微切換一下，按服務收費的組合在本季度環比上升。我想我們——我想你在新聞稿中說管道擁有 85% 的股份，如果我沒記錯的話。我們如何看待 23 年和 24 年的混合？

Just the easy way to think about it, to your point, most of the inventory that's coming online is on most of the pipeline is owned. So I would look for the fee-for-service to decrease in 2023 to be more in that range of 20% to 25%. I data flows because obviously, when a consumer comes in the door, we take the time to really get to know them and some people were just interested in a deeded product that happens to be fee-for-service. So there is a bit of that play. But with the dynamic of the pipeline being primarily owned inventory, it should decrease to that 20% to 25% range.

就您的觀點而言，這只是一種簡單的思考方式，大部分即將上線的庫存都在大部分管道上。因此，我希望 2023 年的服務費下降幅度在 20% 到 25% 之間。我數據流動是因為很明顯，當消費者進門時，我們會花時間真正了解他們，有些人只是對一種恰好是按服務收費的契約產品感興趣。所以有一點那個戲。但隨著管道主要擁有庫存的動態，它應該會下降到 20% 到 25% 的範圍。

Our next question is from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

A couple of questions here. You had used the adverb on some of your forward trends, the advert being nicely ahead or nicely the average. Can you give more granularity perhaps on percentages on some of those metrics that you brought up?

這裡有幾個問題。你在你的一些前進趨勢上使用了副詞，廣告很好地領先或很好地平均。您能否更詳細地說明您提出的某些指標的百分比？

Patrick, it's Dan. Any particular metrics we...

帕特里克，是丹。我們的任何特定指標...

I think you were referring to -- I think it was owner visitation and tour packages. I think those were ones you were referring to?

我想你指的是 - 我認為這是業主探視和旅遊套餐。我想你指的是那些？

Yes. So Patrick, this is Mark. So as it relates to tour flow, so '23 is going to be really the year for tour flow growth. And we've had some really good tour flow growth last year. We continue to see strong demand from a leisure travel standpoint. Our owners and rental guests on the books are above what we saw in '19. But the real growth is going to come from our new buyer -- from a new buyer perspective. Total packages and activated packages are record high. And just to give you kind of a sense of how that's been trending. If you look at our new buyer tour flow compared to '19 in Q1, we're at 60% Q2, 68% Q3, 74% Q4, 78%, and our expectations is that, that trend is going to continue building because our activations have really picked up, and our package pipeline is well over 0.5 million packages that we have in the pipeline. Importantly, the note is our new buyers sales are actually back up to 94% of where they were in '19 because the better closing percentages and better VPGs, we're seeing out there. So all in all, our expectation is strong tour flow growth this coming year. I should note, though, that if you remember, coming out of pandemic, our owners came back first with elevated tour flow transactions and close rates. The pent-up demand for travel from our most committed owners really led this high VPG, especially in Q1 of '22, which I think Dan noted in his prepared remarks was the record VPG for us. So important to note that we're coming up against a tough VPG comp in Q1. So as we've indicated for several quarters, we think the mix shift as we shift into more new buyers will moderate our VPG from these 22 highs. More on a glide path to what we've been saying for a number of quarters now to about 10% to 15% above what we saw in '19.

是的。帕特里克，這是馬克。因此，由於它與旅遊流量有關，因此 23 年將真正成為旅遊流量增長的一年。去年我們的旅遊流量增長非常好。從休閒旅遊的角度來看，我們繼續看到強勁的需求。我們在賬簿上的業主和出租客人比我們在 19 年看到的要高。但真正的增長將來自我們的新買家——從新買家的角度來看。總包數和激活包數創歷史新高。只是為了讓您了解這種趨勢。如果你看看我們的新買家旅遊流量與 19 年第一季度相比，我們在第二季度為 60%，第三季度為 68%，第四季度為 74%，為 78%，我們的預期是，這種趨勢將繼續建立，因為我們的激活確實有所回升，我們的包裹管道中有超過 50 萬個包裹在管道中。重要的是，請注意我們的新買家銷售額實際上回到了 19 年的 94%，因為我們看到了更好的成交率和更好的 VPG。因此，總而言之，我們預計來年旅遊流量將強勁增長。不過，我應該指出，如果您還記得，從大流行病中走出來，我們的業主首先以更高的旅遊流量交易和收盤率回來。我們最忠誠的所有者對旅行的壓抑需求確實導致了這一高 VPG，尤其是在 22 年第一季度，我認為 Dan 在他準備好的評論中指出這是我們創紀錄的 VPG。非常重要的是要注意我們在第一季度遇到了一個艱難的 VPG 組合。因此，正如我們幾個季度所表明的那樣，我們認為隨著我們轉向更多新買家的組合轉變將使我們的 VPG 從這 22 個高位下降。更多關於我們現在幾個季度一直在說的滑行，比我們在 19 年看到的高出約 10% 到 15%。

And Patrick, just to add to that, just to give you another nicely advert, as Mark was talking about the package sales, we're well over $0.5 million. Year-over-year, that's increased 18%. But the investment we've made to activating those packages, I think, is really underscored by the fact that the percent activated has grown 80% year-over-year. So I think that just speaks to that. But it also talks to that moderation in VPG, right? As new buyers come on, as Mark just went over, obviously, VPGs will moderate. And that will ultimately have an impact on the margins -- the EBITDA margins that we see for the overall business. Now this is the same story we've been talking about for a number of quarters. So no surprise. That moderation should ultimately fall out to be ahead of where the pro forma was in 2019. Obviously, we've capitalized on a lot of cost synergies. Will that normal moderate, normalize in 2023? It will probably carry into 2024, but that's 100 to 200 basis points, something of that nature where it ultimately falls out. But to avoid any confusion, that's a percentage operation from an absolute dollar earning, even mind new buyers, we sell new buyers at a profit. So we're not talking about lack of earnings growth. It's just a margin percentage moderation.

帕特里克，只是為了補充一點，只是給你另一個很好的廣告，因為馬克正在談論包裹銷售，我們遠遠超過 50 萬美元。同比增長 18%。但我認為，我們為激活這些軟件包所做的投資確實得到了激活百分比同比增長 80% 的事實的強調。所以我認為這說明了這一點。但它也與 VPG 中的節制有關，對嗎？隨著新買家的加入，就像馬克剛剛過去一樣，很明顯，VPG 將會緩和。這最終將對利潤率產生影響——我們看到的整體業務的 EBITDA 利潤率。這就是我們幾個季度以來一直在談論的同一個故事。所以不足為奇。這種緩和最終應該會領先於 2019 年的備考。顯然，我們已經利用了很多成本協同效應。這種常態會在 2023 年恢復正常嗎？它可能會延續到 2024 年，但那是 100 到 200 個基點，這是最終失敗的那種性質。但為避免混淆，這是絕對美元收入的百分比操作，即使是新買家，我們也會以利潤出售新買家。所以我們不是在談論缺乏盈利增長。這只是保證金百分比適度。

Okay. I got some follow-up questions regarding all that. Certainly, it sounds like new buyers in the packages and pipeline, a very high percentage. Is the target still 40% for new buyers actually buying by the end of '23? It sounds like you might be ahead of that.

好的。我收到了一些關於這一切的後續問題。當然，這聽起來像是包裹和管道中的新買家，比例非常高。到 23 年底，新買家實際購買的目標仍然是 40% 嗎？聽起來你可能領先於此。

Yes. Look, I think that's our targeted goal. You have to remember, new buyer sales are growing and tour flows are growing, accelerating faster than we're seeing owner tour flow grow. But you have to remember the VPG and close rate is considerably less than owners. So our goal is to get back up to 40%. I'm not sure if we'll get to that level by the end of the year, but that's our ultimate goal. Look, at the end of the day, Naga's core to our strategy. We know that the lifetime value to customer is so important. And we know since 2016 that every new buyer that we generate, we generate an additional 1.7 additional transactions. So not only is it embedding recurring revenue from management and club fees, and any mortgages that we may initiate but is also embedding future high-margin sales. So very core to our strategy early on when the pandemic began, we really focused on our owners because that made the most sense from a standpoint of generating as much cash and margin as possible. But we are now back on course, and this year will be the year of tour flow growth, in particular around new buyers.

是的。看，我認為這是我們的目標。你必須記住，新買家的銷售額在增長，旅遊流量也在增長，加速速度超過我們看到的所有者旅遊流量的增長。但你必須記住 VPG 和關閉率遠低於所有者。所以我們的目標是恢復到 40%。我不確定我們是否會在今年年底達到那個水平，但這是我們的最終目標。看，歸根結底，娜迦是我們戰略的核心。我們知道客戶的終生價值非常重要。我們知道，自 2016 年以來，我們每產生一個新買家，就會產生額外的 1.7 筆額外交易。因此，它不僅嵌入了來自管理和俱樂部費用的經常性收入，以及我們可能發起的任何抵押貸款，而且還嵌入了未來的高利潤銷售。因此，在大流行開始的早期，我們的戰略非常核心，我們真正關注我們的所有者，因為從產生盡可能多的現金和利潤的角度來看，這是最有意義的。但我們現在回到正軌，今年將是旅遊流量增長的一年，尤其是圍繞新買家。

I have more questions, but I will go to the end of the queue and let people ask questions.

我有更多問題，但我會排到隊列末尾讓人們提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from David Katz with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

Given I have a couple going on this morning, I hope I'm not asking something twice. But my most important issue is just figuring out how you think about the contingencies and sensitivities and leverages as we get through this year and potentially get into a recession that still has yet to sort of be defined as to what that would look like. Help us walk through a range of scenarios, if you can.

考慮到我今天早上有一對情侶，我希望我沒有問兩次。但我最重要的問題是弄清楚你如何看待我們今年度過的突發事件、敏感性和槓桿作用，並有可能陷入衰退，而衰退是什麼樣子的還沒有定論。如果可以，請幫助我們了解一系列場景。

Well, look, David, I think obviously, we're aware and mindful of potential impacts of the macro environment. And clearly, there's a lot of cross currents on the consumers out there. But what we're seeing right now is consumers continue to prioritize travel. And we're seeing more owners of rental guests on our books than we saw in '19. And so that's a great indicator. We just answered a question earlier around new buyer tour flow. New buyer tour flow is really outpacing all of our other channels. And we continue to activate those tours at a very healthy pace. So all in all, the activity -- all of this activity is increasing traffic in our sales centers and it's going to drive transactions. And so I do think we have some distinct advantages in our model, our direct sales approach, which allows us to engage with our owners and prospects in pretty much any environment. You saw how fast our industry, and in particular, HGVs come back from the pandemic. We've got this high-quality pool of customers from Hilton through the Health Honors member base who have a high affinity to travel. And so again, packages remained strong. We drove increases in tour flow. I just gave out some numbers. If you go back and you listen to the transcript, I gave out some detailed numbers on the sequential growth of our new buyer tour flow. Our inventory position is really good. And while look, we're certainly not immune from macro pressures. We do believe we'll hold up well even if we face some incremental headwinds on VPG and margin.

好吧，大衛，我認為很明顯，我們意識到並註意到宏觀環境的潛在影響。很明顯，那裡的消費者有很多交叉流。但我們現在看到的是，消費者繼續優先考慮旅行。與 19 年相比，我們在賬簿上看到更多出租客人的業主。所以這是一個很好的指標。我們剛剛回答了一個關於新買家旅遊流程的問題。新的買家參觀流量確實超過了我們所有其他渠道。我們繼續以非常健康的速度激活這些旅行。因此，總而言之，活動——所有這些活動都在增加我們銷售中心的流量，並將推動交易。所以我確實認為我們的模式有一些明顯的優勢，我們的直銷方式使我們能夠在幾乎任何環境中與我們的所有者和潛在客戶進行互動。您看到了我們的行業，尤其是重型貨車從大流行中恢復的速度有多快。通過 Health Honors 會員群，我們從希爾頓那裡獲得了高質量的客戶群，他們對旅行有很高的親和力。如此一來，一攬子計劃依然強勁。我們推動了旅遊流量的增加。我只是給出了一些數字。如果你回去聽一下成績單，我給出了一些關於我們新買家旅遊流量連續增長的詳細數字。我們的庫存狀況非常好。雖然看起來，我們當然不能免受宏觀壓力的影響。我們確實相信，即使我們在 VPG 和利潤率方面面臨一些漸進的逆風，我們也會保持良好狀態。

Understood. And can I just ask for a quick comment with respect to the balance sheet and how you think about not that leverage is a challenge for you in any way, but how do you think about kind of managing your leverage levels as you sort of progress through this year as well?

明白了。我能否就資產負債表以及你如何看待槓桿對你來說不是一個挑戰，而是你如何看待在你取得進展的過程中如何管理你的槓桿水平進行快速評論？今年也是嗎？

David, it's Dan. Thanks. Look, great question. We are right now 2.4x levered. I think when we work our way through COVID, we've proven that we tend to be a little bit conservative on the balance sheet in preparation for macroeconomic events. That being said, I think COVID also proved out that ourselves as well as the vast majority of timeshare, can operate at significantly higher leverage, if necessary. I think ultimately, what you would see us do barring some kind of material called great financial crisis type recession. You see us continue down the path that we're on right now, and that's actively returning capital to shareholders, continuing to do that and maintaining a leverage ratio of sometime, some place in the range of 2 to 3x. We've been able to pull back on inventory spend where necessary. And if something material were to happen, we'd probably look at pulling that lever again as well.

大衛，是丹。謝謝。看，好問題。我們現在的槓桿是 2.4 倍。我認為，當我們通過 COVID 努力工作時，我們已經證明我們在為宏觀經濟事件做準備時在資產負債表上傾向於有點保守。話雖這麼說，我認為 COVID 也證明了我們自己以及絕大多數分時度假，如果有必要，可以以更高的槓桿率運營。我認為最終，你會看到我們做什麼，除非出現某種稱為大金融危機型衰退的材料。你看到我們繼續沿著我們現在所走的道路前進，那就是積極向股東返還資本，繼續這樣做並保持槓桿率在某個時間，某個地方在 2 到 3 倍的範圍內。我們已經能夠在必要時減少庫存支出。如果發生重大事件，我們可能也會考慮再次拉動槓桿。

We have a follow-up question from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們有來自 Truist Securities 的帕特里克斯科爾斯的後續問題。

At the end of the prepared remarks, threw a little curveball there with talking about material weakness. I'm wondering if you could give us any more color whatsoever that might mean or what it might refer to at all.

在準備好的發言結束時，在談論材料弱點時拋出了一個小曲線球。我想知道你是否可以給我們更多的顏色，不管它可能意味著什麼，或者它可能指的是什麼。

Patrick, it's Dan. Thanks. That's a great question. was a little bit vague. The disclosure in our Form K under Item 9 today will be a little bit more transparent, but we'll be more transparent. But just to give you an example or maybe some background. As you know, Diamond was taken private in 2016 and to be perfectly honest, there's a lack of investment in infrastructure associated with internal controls. As you would expect, that's very typical of any private organization. One of the items, just to give an example was a shortfall in user access controls associated with their property management system as well as their tour system, et cetera. So what we had to do was literally go in and clean up every single user that had access to find the roles and responsibility of every single users. And those controls need to be in place for a specific amount of time in order to avoid the material weakness, if you will. And they were not in place for the specified amount of time, and we're working through a remediation plan. But this in no way impacts the financials, no way impacts the processes of selling a contract. There's no restatements. No one -- don't confuse me, I'm not trying to be dismissive. No one wants to have a material weakness, but this is the one that you would take, especially since it has no financial impact. But it should be -- we fully expect to be on track with regards to internal controls at both HGV. Keep in mind, no material weakness on the Legacy HGV side. This was strictly Diamond. And we believe both entities will be in a solid position for this year's audit that progresses -- starts to progress in future.

帕特里克，是丹。謝謝。這是一個很好的問題。有點含糊。我們今天第 9 項下的 Form K 中的披露會更加透明一些，但我們會更加透明。但只是給你一個例子或者一些背景。如您所知，Diamond 在 2016 年被私有化，老實說，缺乏對與內部控制相關的基礎設施的投資。如您所料，這在任何私人組織中都是非常典型的。舉個例子，其中一項是與其物業管理系統以及旅遊系統等相關的用戶訪問控制不足。因此，我們要做的就是真正進入並清理有權訪問的每個用戶，以找到每個用戶的角色和責任。如果您願意，這些控制措施需要在特定時間段內實施，以避免出現實質性弱點。他們沒有在規定的時間內到位，我們正在製定補救計劃。但這絕不會影響財務狀況，也不會影響銷售合同的過程。沒有重述。沒有人 - 不要混淆我，我不是想不屑一顧。沒有人想要物質上的弱點，但這是你會接受的，尤其是因為它沒有財務影響。但它應該是——我們完全希望在 HGV 的內部控制方面走上正軌。請記住，Legacy HGV 方面沒有實質性弱點。這絕對是鑽石。我們相信這兩個實體都將在今年取得進展的審計中處於穩固的地位 - 未來將開始取得進展。

Okay. Would a way of maybe summing that up would be they didn't follow the required best practices where you folks do have the best practices you identified it and you are working on rectifying it. Is that a good summary?

好的。可能總結的一種方式是他們沒有遵循所需的最佳實踐，而你們確實擁有您確定的最佳實踐並且您正在努力糾正它。這是一個很好的總結嗎？

That would be a nice summary, yes.

這將是一個很好的總結，是的。

Then just a couple of other follow-up questions you had in our conversation earlier, I had mentioned close rates. Can you tell us what the close rates were either year-over-year and/or versus 2019?

然後是您在我們之前的談話中提出的其他幾個後續問題，我提到了收盤價。你能告訴我們收盤價同比和/或與 2019 年相比是多少嗎？

Yes. So look, we're -- what we can tell you is that our close rates have been running approximately 400 bps ahead of where they were in '19. And that was pretty consistent. It happened pretty quickly right after the reopening. Again, and it's interesting because our close rates, if you go back over multiple decades, has been pretty stable. And for us, clearly, we benefited from the pent-up demand. I don't know if you want to really call it revenge travel or what, clearly, the consumers' balance sheets are in really good shape. And so -- but at the end of the day, our expectation is those close rates would moderate back down just like our VPG and VPG is really an outcome of close rate and average transaction price. So at the end of the day, our expectations of close rates will moderate back down, especially as we shift our mix back to more new burn tours. So all in all, our expectation is it won't go back to where it was in '19. It will still hover above that as we think our overall value proposition has improved. We've added new products in new markets, and we continue to really enhance our precision around finding the best customer that fits our product.

是的。所以看，我們 - 我們可以告訴你的是，我們的收盤價已經比 19 年的水平高出大約 400 個基點。這非常一致。重新開放後很快就發生了。再次，這很有趣，因為如果你回顧幾十年，我們的收盤價一直非常穩定。顯然，對我們來說，我們受益於被壓抑的需求。我不知道你是否真的想稱之為報復旅行或什麼，很明顯，消費者的資產負債表狀況非常好。所以——但最終，我們的預期是那些收盤價會像我們的 VPG 一樣緩和回落，而 VPG 實際上是收盤價和平均交易價格的結果。因此，在一天結束時，我們對收盤價的預期將會緩和下來，尤其是當我們將我們的組合重新轉向更多新的燃燒之旅時。所以總而言之，我們的預期是它不會回到 19 年的水平。它仍將徘徊在該水平之上，因為我們認為我們的整體價值主張有所改善。我們在新市場增加了新產品，並且我們繼續真正提高我們在尋找適合我們產品的最佳客戶方面的精確度。

Okay. And then one last question, I promise here. the provision, did you say you're trying to take it sub-10%. But I remember my notes, you said targeting 15% to 16%. Can you clarify where you are and where you want to be with that?

好的。最後一個問題，我在這裡保證。規定，你是不是說你想把它降低到 10% 以下？但我記得我的筆記，你說目標是 15% 到 16%。你能澄清一下你在哪里以及你想在哪裡嗎？

Yes, Patrick. So the provision in 2022 was -- we had, as you may recall, a benefit in Q3. All in, it was right around that 10% level. With regards to where they're going, at some point in time, you're going to have a more normalization in credit trends right now. We haven't seen that to date. And what we're very happy about is we look at our default rate on the Legacy Diamond side and the delinquency rate on the Legacy Diamond side pre acquisition to post our acquisition, where our underwriting and sales practicing standards have kicked in, it is materially down. It's outperforming our underwrite anticipated that provision on a consolidated basis to be north of 15%, not ready to ring the bell that where we've changed things permanently, but it's significantly outperforming the underwriting. On the HGV side, we see the delinquency rates and the default rate is very consistent with 2019, which we're also pleased with. Ultimately, you're going to see that provision as a percent of contract sales increase this year. We anticipate it to increase this year. I don't think it will fully get to 16% or 15%, but it will begin to normalize, we believe.

是的，帕特里克。因此，2022 年的規定是——您可能還記得，我們在第三季度獲得了好處。總而言之，它就在 10% 左右。關於他們的去向，在某個時間點，您現在的信貸趨勢將更加正常化。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到。我們非常高興的是，我們查看了 Legacy Diamond 方面的違約率和收購前 Legacy Diamond 方面的拖欠率，以發布我們的收購，我們的承銷和銷售實踐標準已經生效，這很重要向下。它的表現優於我們的承銷預期，即綜合基礎上的準備金超過 15%，還沒有準備好敲響我們永久改變事情的鐘聲，但它的表現明顯優於承銷。在 HGV 方面，我們看到拖欠率和違約率與 2019 年非常一致，我們也對此感到滿意。最終，您將看到該準備金佔今年合同銷售額增長的百分比。我們預計今年會增加。我不認為它會完全達到 16% 或 15%，但我們相信它會開始正常化。

Okay. I have one last question here, a modeling question. Anything we should think about with sort of quarter-to-quarter volatility and expected recognition of net deferrals when we're modeling the deferral -- excuse me, adjusted EBITDA by quarter?

好的。我這裡有最後一個問題，一個建模問題。在我們為延期建模時，我們應該考慮的是季度間波動和對淨延期的預期確認——對不起，按季度調整的 EBITDA？

Yes, Patrick. We've actually -- I think we may have discussed this before. We've actually shied away from giving specifics because it's all associated -- it's all associated with the timing of specific bided projects that are sold. And as I mentioned earlier, we do allow the consumer to choose exactly they want to buy, right? So I would assume just 0 by quarter and well as that plays out.

是的，帕特里克。我們實際上 - 我想我們之前可能已經討論過這個問題。我們實際上已經迴避提供細節，因為它都是相關的——它都與出售的特定投標項目的時間相關。正如我之前提到的，我們確實允許消費者選擇他們想要購買的東西，對吧？所以我會假設每個季度只有 0，而且結果會很好。

Okay. That's great. I recall a number of years ago that definitely created a lot of volatility. So it's great to hear that.

好的。太好了。我記得很多年前那肯定造成了很大的波動。所以很高興聽到這個消息。

This will conclude our question-and-answer session. But before we end, I will turn the call back over to Mark Wang for any closing remarks. Mr. Wang?

我們的問答環節到此結束。但在我們結束之前，我會將電話轉回給 Mark Wang 以聽取任何結束語。王先生？

Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us today. I want to give a special thanks to our team members for going above and beyond to deliver outstanding vacation experiences to our members and guests. We look forward to speaking with you again soon. Have a great day. Thanks.

好吧，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我要特別感謝我們的團隊成員竭盡全力為我們的會員和客人提供出色的假期體驗。我們期待很快再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。