Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc (HE) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and thank you for attending today's Hawaiian Electric Industries Earnings Conference Call. My name is Danielle, and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to pass the conference over to our host, Mateo Garcia, Director of Investor Relations. Mateo, the floor is yours.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的夏威夷電力行業收益電話會議。我叫丹妮爾，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興將會議轉交給我們的主持人投資者關係總監 Mateo Garcia。馬特奧，地板是你的。

Thank you, Danielle. Welcome, everyone, to HEI's Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Scott Seu, HEI President and CEO; Paul Ito, HEI's CFO; Shelee Kimura, Hawaiian Electric President and CEO; Ann Teranishi, American Savings Bank President and CEO; and other members of senior management. Our earnings release and our presentation for this call are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. As a reminder, forward-looking statements will be made on today's call. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations can be found in our presentation, our SEC filings and in the Investor Relations section of our website. Now Scott will begin with his remarks.

謝謝你，丹妮爾。歡迎大家參加 HEI 2022 年全年和第四季度財報電話會議。今天加入我的是 HEI 總裁兼首席執行官 Scott Seu； HEI 首席財務官 Paul Ito；夏威夷電氣總裁兼首席執行官 Shelee Kimura；美國儲蓄銀行總裁兼首席執行官 Ann Teranishi；及其他高級管理人員。我們的收益發布和本次電話會議的演示文稿可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。提醒一下，前瞻性陳述將在今天的電話會議上發表。可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素可以在我們的演示文稿、我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。現在斯科特將開始他的發言。

Aloha kakou, greetings, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'll give an overview of our results and accomplishments over the past year, update you on the Hawaii economy and then turn the call over to Paul to further discuss our financial results and guidance. 2022 was a year of strong achievement for HEI, highlighting the strategic benefits we continue to see from our combination of companies. We earned $241 million in net income and $2.20 in earnings per share for the full year, reflecting solid performance at both the utility and bank. Despite an unprecedented combination of macroeconomic challenges occurring in the first full year under our new regulatory framework, Hawaiian Electric grew earnings 6% year-over-year to $189 million.

Aloha kakou，大家好。感謝您今天加入我們。我將概述我們過去一年的成果和成就，向您介紹夏威夷經濟的最新情況，然後將電話轉給保羅進一步討論我們的財務業績和指導。 2022 年是哈電國際取得豐碩成果的一年，凸顯了我們繼續從公司合併中看到的戰略利益。我們全年的淨收入為 2.41 億美元，每股收益為 2.20 美元，反映了公用事業和銀行的穩健表現。儘管在我們新的監管框架下的第一個完整年度出現了前所未有的宏觀經濟挑戰組合，但 Hawaiian Electric 的收益同比增長 6% 至 1.89 億美元。

This was consistent with our expectations and in line with the improved guidance we messaged during our third quarter webcast. ASB had a strong year as well with the strongest loan growth in a decade, reflecting continued solid credit quality and a healthy Hawaii economy. Bank earnings of $80 million were in line with the increased earnings guidance we communicated in the third quarter.

這符合我們的預期，也符合我們在第三季度網絡廣播中傳達的改進指南。 ASB 在過去一年表現強勁，貸款增長也是十年來最強勁的，這反映出持續穩健的信貸質量和健康的夏威夷經濟。 8000 萬美元的銀行收益符合我們在第三季度傳達的增加的收益指引。

As a reminder, the $101 million the bank earned in 2021 reflected benefits from unique pandemic recovery related items that Paul will highlight later. Last week, we raised our annual dividend for the fifth year in a row, reflecting our confidence that our combination of companies will continue to deliver steady results going forward.

提醒一下，該銀行在 2021 年賺取的 1.01 億美元反映了保羅稍後將強調的獨特的大流行恢復相關項目帶來的收益。上週，我們連續第五年提高了年度股息，反映出我們對公司合併後將繼續取得穩定業績的信心。

Turning to Slide 3. 2022 was our first full year of performance-based regulation, or PBR, given the unusual convergence of macro headwinds during the year, we saw 2022 as a successful stress test of this new regulatory framework.

轉到幻燈片 3。2022 年是我們實施基於績效的監管 (PBR) 的第一個完整年度，鑑於這一年宏觀逆風異常趨同，我們將 2022 年視為對這一新監管框架的成功壓力測試。

Our utilities showed an ability to quickly adjust and maintain operational efficiency despite multiple challenges from inflation, interest rates and fuel costs. We executed well and delivered earnings growth even in the stress test conditions. We recognize that 2022 was not an easy year for our customers, historically high inflation and oil prices rising borrowing costs and volatile food and commodity prices challenged Hawaii as they did the rest of the nation, and we responded by finding more ways to care for our customers in need of assistance.

儘管通貨膨脹、利率和燃料成本面臨多重挑戰，但我們的公用事業公司表現出了快速調整和保持運營效率的能力。即使在壓力測試條件下，我們也表現良好並實現了盈利增長。我們認識到 2022 年對我們的客戶來說不是輕鬆的一年，處於歷史高位的通貨膨脹和油價上漲的借貸成本以及波動的食品和商品價格對夏威夷以及全國其他地區都構成了挑戰，我們的回應是尋找更多的方式來照顧我們的客戶需要幫助的客戶。

Elevated fuel prices and the resulting customer bill pressures seen in 2020 further highlight the importance of our renewable energy transition. In 2022, we continue to execute on key elements of utilities climate change action plan, which targets reducing carbon emissions in 2018, 70% below 2005 levels and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2045. In September, we achieved a major milestone in our client interaction plan with the retirement of Hawaii's last coal plants. Despite global supply chain challenges that have impacted renewables projects nationwide, we reached an important milestone last summer when Oahu's first utility-scale solar plus storage project was energized and last month, we brought another of these projects online.

2020 年燃油價格上漲以及由此產生的客戶賬單壓力進一步凸顯了我們可再生能源轉型的重要性。 2022 年，我們繼續執行公用事業氣候變化行動計劃的關鍵要素，目標是到 2018 年將碳排放量減少到 2005 年水平的 70%，到 2045 年實現淨零碳排放。9 月，我們在客戶方面取得了重要里程碑與夏威夷最後一家燃煤電廠退役的互動計劃。儘管全球供應鏈挑戰影響了全國的可再生能源項目，但我們在去年夏天達到了一個重要的里程碑，當時瓦胡島的第一個公用事業規模的太陽能加儲能項目通電，上個月，我們將其中另一個項目上線。

We continue to expand our procurement of renewables. And in 2022, we laid the groundwork for our recently launched Stage 3 RFP. Based on the amount of renewable energy we're seeking, this would be our largest renewables procurement ever. In 2022, we achieved a renewable portfolio standard or RPS level of 39.1%, up from 38% in 2021. I'll note here that there is a new definition of RPS now in effect under Hawaii State law. Going forward, we'll only reference RPS achievement in terms of the new definition which is consistent with the RPS-A performance incentive mechanism.

我們繼續擴大對可再生能源的採購。在 2022 年，我們為最近啟動的第 3 階段 RFP 奠定了基礎。根據我們尋求的可再生能源數量，這將是我們有史以來最大的可再生能源採購。 2022 年，我們實現了 39.1% 的可再生投資組合標准或 RPS 水平，高於 2021 年的 38%。在此我要指出，根據夏威夷州法律，RPS 的新定義現已生效。展望未來，我們將僅根據與 RPS-A 績效激勵機制一致的新定義來參考 RPS 成就。

Under the new definition, our 2022 RPS was 31.8%, up from 31% in 2021. Even with the new definition, we expect to meet the 40% RPS by 2030 milestone ahead of schedule. Customer owned renewable generation remains key to moving Hawaii towards its 100% renewable energy. Our battery bonus program, which provides a cash incentive and bill credits for customers to add storage to existing or new rooftop solar systems made progress in 2022. This is an innovative program that benefits both the battery bonus customer and other customers on the broader energy system.

根據新定義，我們的 2022 年 RPS 為 31.8%，高於 2021 年的 31%。即使採用新定義，我們預計到 2030 年也能提前達到 40% RPS 的里程碑。客戶擁有的可再生能源發電仍然是推動夏威夷實現 100% 可再生能源的關鍵。我們的電池獎勵計劃為客戶提供現金獎勵和賬單抵免，以在現有或新的屋頂太陽能係統中增加存儲，該計劃在 2022 年取得了進展。這是一項創新計劃，既有利於電池獎勵客戶，也有利於更廣泛的能源系統中的其他客戶.

As the batteries are programmed to discharge to the grid during the [seasoning] peak period. Our utility is taking additional steps to ensure our renewables transition benefits the communities we serve. In November, the utility selected 7 solar projects across the islands for our community-based renewable energy program for customers who meet low and moderate income loans and are unable to install privately owned rooftop solar. The electrification of transportation is also key to a greener Hawaii and in 2022, the utility launched the charge of commercial pilot program to help nonresidential customers reduce the upfront investment and complexity of installing EV charging stations.

由於電池被編程為在[調味]高峰期向電網放電。我們的公用事業公司正在採取額外措施，以確保我們的可再生能源轉型有益於我們所服務的社區。 11 月，該公用事業公司在全島範圍內選擇了 7 個太陽能項目作為我們基於社區的可再生能源計劃，面向滿足中低收入貸款且無法安裝私有屋頂太陽能的客戶。交通電氣化也是打造綠色夏威夷的關鍵，2022 年，該公用事業公司啟動了商業收費試點計劃，以幫助非住宅客戶減少安裝 EV 充電站的前期投資和復雜性。

Turning to the bank. American Savings Bank continued to perform very well through 2022. Demonstrating the value of its conservative management approach, good credit quality and low-cost funding base. ASB continues to generate a dividend that provides efficient capital to support both our consolidated investment-grade capital structure and our growing dividends to shareholders. ASB leveraged its strong customer relationships and best-in-class customer service to grow loans by 15% in 2022, the strongest growth in over a decade while maintaining our high standards of loan underwriting.

轉向銀行。美國儲蓄銀行在 2022 年繼續表現出色。展示了其保守的管理方法、良好的信貸質量和低成本融資基礎的價值。 ASB 繼續產生股息，提供有效的資本來支持我們整合的投資級資本結構和我們不斷增長的股東股息。 ASB 利用其強大的客戶關係和一流的客戶服務，在 2022 年將貸款增長了 15%，這是十多年來最強勁的增長，同時保持了我們高標準的貸款承銷。

As Paul will discuss shortly, we expect loan growth to return to more normalized levels in 2023. Excluding the pandemic recovery related items unique to 2021, the bank grew earnings meaningfully in 2022, while continuing to execute on key initiatives such as digital transformation.

正如 Paul 即將討論的那樣，我們預計貸款增長將在 2023 年恢復到更正常的水平。排除 2021 年特有的大流行複蘇相關項目，該銀行在 2022 年實現了顯著的收益增長，同時繼續執行數字化轉型等關鍵舉措。

For example, ASB implemented Zelle in 2022, providing customers with a secure, fast and convenient way to send money digitally to friends and family. We've continued to see an accelerated pace of digital adoption, first brought on by the pandemic and over half of transactions are now executed through digital channels compared to less than 20% pre-pandemic.

例如，ASB 在 2022 年實施了 Zelle，為客戶提供了一種安全、快速和方便的方式，可以通過數字方式向朋友和家人匯款。我們繼續看到數字採用的步伐加快，這首先是由大流行帶來的，現在超過一半的交易是通過數字渠道執行的，而大流行前這一比例不到 20%。

Turning to the economy. Hawaii's economy has continued to show signs of strength and resilience, and we believe it remains well positioned to weather potential economic headwinds. The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, UHERO which provides the most frequent forecasts of our state's economy is not expecting a recession in 2023 in part due to continued recovery of Japanese tourism and surging public sector construction.

轉向經濟。夏威夷的經濟繼續顯示出強勁和彈性的跡象，我們相信它仍然能夠抵禦潛在的經濟逆風。夏威夷大學經濟研究組織 UHERO 對我們州的經濟做出最頻繁的預測，預計 2023 年不會出現衰退，部分原因是日本旅遊業的持續復甦和公共部門建設的激增。

The strength of Hawaii's economy is all evident in the strong loan growth our bank generated this past year in both residential and commercial real estate. Hawaii's unemployment rate was down to 3.2% in December, continuing the downward trajectory we saw throughout the year. Our state's unemployment has been lower than the national average since October, and this is notable as we had the highest unemployment in the nation during the early days of the pandemic.

夏威夷經濟的實力在我們銀行去年在住宅和商業房地產領域產生的強勁貸款增長中得到了充分體現。夏威夷的失業率在 12 月份降至 3.2%，延續了全年的下降趨勢。自 10 月以來，我們州的失業率一直低於全國平均水平，這一點值得注意，因為我們在大流行初期的失業率是全國最高的。

Employment here has fared comparatively well during downturns and performed better than the national average during the financial crisis. Hawaii's housing market had a strong year, with housing prices remaining near record levels despite slower sales activity due to higher interest rates. The median Oahu single-family home price was $1.1 million for the full year, up 11.6% versus 2021. Tight supply continues to characterize Hawaii's housing market. Supporting housing prices through downturns and contributing to the strong credit quality of our bank loan portfolio.

這裡的就業在經濟低迷時期表現相對較好，在金融危機期間表現優於全國平均水平。夏威夷的房地產市場今年表現強勁，儘管利率上升導致銷售活動放緩，但房價仍接近歷史最高水平。瓦胡島全年單戶住宅價格中值為 110 萬美元，比 2021 年上漲 11.6%。供應緊張仍然是夏威夷房地產市場的特點。在經濟低迷時期支持房價，並有助於提高我們銀行貸款組合的信貸質量。

Tourism arrivals recovered to over 91% of pre-pandemic levels as of December primarily due to a strong recovery in domestic travel. Visitor spending for the full year was up 9% from 2019 levels. As I hand the call over to Paul, I'm please to say that he is now our CFO after serving as our Interim CFO since July of last year. Many of you likely saw our press release last month announcing Paul's appointment effective January 1. I look forward to continuing to work with him in the capacity, and we're excited to have him in the CFO seat. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

截至 12 月，旅遊人數恢復到大流行前水平的 91% 以上，這主要是由於國內旅遊的強勁復甦。全年遊客消費比 2019 年增長 9%。當我把電話交給保羅時，我很高興地說，他自去年 7 月以來擔任我們的臨時首席財務官，現在是我們的首席財務官。你們中的許多人可能在上個月看到了我們宣布 Paul 的任命將於 1 月 1 日生效的新聞稿。我期待著繼續以他的身份與他共事，我們很高興他能擔任首席財務官一職。有了這個，我會把電話轉給保羅。

Thank you, Scott. I'll start on Slide 6 with our results for the year. We are pleased with our 2022 performance. We generated consolidated net income of $241 million and EPS of $2.20 compared to $246 million and EPS of $2.25 in 2021. As a reminder, our 2022 results included a $0.06 gain on sale of the EverCharge investment recorded at Pacific Current. Also, as Scott mentioned net income for 2021 reflected bank earnings that were elevated by 2 pandemic recovery related items, a net benefit from the release of reserves and PPP fee income.

謝謝你，斯科特。我將從幻燈片 6 開始介紹我們今年的結果。我們對 2022 年的表現感到滿意。我們的綜合淨收入為 2.41 億美元，每股收益為 2.20 美元，而 2021 年為 2.46 億美元，每股收益為 2.25 美元。提醒一下，我們 2022 年的業績包括出售 Pacific Current 記錄的 EverCharge 投資收益 0.06 美元。此外，正如 Scott 提到的那樣，2021 年的淨收入反映了銀行收入因 2 個與大流行病復甦相關的項目而增加，即準備金釋放帶來的淨收益和 PPP 費用收入。

Excluding these items and the EverCharge gain recognized in 2022. Earnings grew meaningfully year-over-year. Our consolidated ROE for 2022 was 10.5%, an increase of 10 basis points from 2021. The utility made progress in narrowing the allowed ROE gap achieving an ROE of 8.2%, which was up from 8.1% in 2021. And bank ROE increased to 14.1% and from 13.8% in 2021.

不包括這些項目和 2022 年確認的 EverCharge 收益。收益同比顯著增長。我們 2022 年的綜合淨資產收益率為 10.5%，比 2021 年增加了 10 個基點。公用事業公司在縮小允許的淨資產收益率差距方面取得了進展，實現了 8.2% 的淨資產收益率，高於 2021 年的 8.1%。銀行的淨資產收益率增至 14.1 % 和 2021 年的 13.8%。

On Slide 7, we show the major variances across our enterprise compared to last year. Overall, we saw very strong results from the bank in 2022, and results were in line with the increased guidance we provided in the third quarter. As mentioned, the net income variance compared to 2021 was largely due to 2 pandemic related items. First, the bank returned to a more normalized provision for credit losses of $2 million as we provisioned for the strong loan growth seen during the year.

在幻燈片 7 中，我們展示了整個企業與去年相比的主要差異。總體而言，我們看到該銀行在 2022 年取得了非常強勁的業績，並且業績與我們在第三季度提供的更高指引一致。如前所述，與 2021 年相比的淨收入差異主要是由於 2 個與大流行相關的項目。首先，由於我們為年內強勁的貸款增長做好準備，該銀行恢復了 200 萬美元的更正常化的信貸損失準備金。

In comparison, in 2021, the bank recorded a negative provision for credit losses that is a net benefit of $25.8 million due to an improved economic outlook and credit quality improvements coming out of the pandemic. Second, net income in 2021 benefited from over $11 million in higher PPP fee income compared to 2022. However, the decrease in PPP fee income was more than offset by higher yields on loans and investment securities and strong loan growth across the entire portfolio in 2022.

相比之下，由於大流行帶來的經濟前景改善和信貸質量改善，該銀行在 2021 年記錄了信貸損失負準備金，淨收益為 2580 萬美元。其次，與 2022 年相比，2021 年的淨收入得益於超過 1100 萬美元的 PPP 費用收入。但是，PPP 費用收入的減少被貸款和投資證券收益率的提高以及 2022 年整個投資組合的強勁貸款增長所抵消。 .

Notably, net interest income grew 6.5% as the bank more than made up for the lower PPP fee income. The bank saw lower noninterest income of $57 million compared to $65 million in 2021. The decrease was primarily due to lower mortgage banking income, lower bank-owned life insurance income and lower fees from other financial services, partially offset by higher fee income and deposit liabilities, gains on sales of real estate related to branch closures and fee income on other financial products.

值得注意的是，由於銀行彌補了較低的 PPP 費用收入，淨利息收入增長了 6.5%。與 2021 年的 6500 萬美元相比，該銀行的非利息收入減少了 5700 萬美元。減少的主要原因是抵押貸款銀行收入減少、銀行擁有的人壽保險收入減少以及其他金融服務費用減少，部分被費用收入和存款增加所抵消負債、與分支機構關閉相關的房地產銷售收益以及其他金融產品的費用收入。

Noninterest expense for 2022 was about 4% higher at $205 million compared to $197 million in 2021. The increase was primarily due to a pension accounting change that resulted in lower pension expense in 2021 and higher occupancy costs in 2020 from the write-off of leases related to branch closures. On the utility side, we saw $25 million more in ARA revenues, $4 million in higher fee revenue, $3 million in higher revenue recovered under our major project interim recovery mechanism, $1 million in higher AFUDC and $1 million due to the reset of heat rate requirements, leading to lower penalties for fuel efficiency at our Hawaii Island facility.

與 2021 年的 1.97 億美元相比，2022 年的非利息支出增加了約 4%，達到 2.05 億美元。這一增長主要是由於養老金會計變更導致 2021 年養老金支出減少以及 2020 年因註銷租賃而導致的佔用成本增加與分支機構關閉有關。在公用事業方面，我們看到 ARA 收入增加了 2500 萬美元，費用收入增加了 400 萬美元，在我們的主要項目臨時恢復機制下恢復的收入增加了 300 萬美元，AFUDC 增加了 100 萬美元，由於熱費率的重置增加了 100 萬美元要求，從而降低了我們夏威夷島工廠的燃油效率處罰。

These items were partially offset by $13 million in higher O&M expenses, which were driven by increased generating station maintenance, higher bad debt expense and increased transmission and distribution, preventative and corrective maintenance, $4 million from higher depreciation expense, $3 million higher interest expense and $2 million in net tax adjustments due to tax credit benefits recognized in 2021.

這些項目被 1300 萬美元的更高 O&M 費用部分抵消，這是由於發電站維護增加、壞賬費用增加以及輸配電、預防性和糾正性維護增加、折舊費用增加 400 萬美元、利息費用增加 300 萬美元和由於 2021 年確認的稅收抵免福利，淨稅收調整為 200 萬美元。

I would note that the utility managed cost well in 2022. On a GAAP basis, the utility had a net increase of about 4.6%. However, adjusted O&M, which is a non-GAAP measure and excludes retirement service costs and expenses covered by surcharges and activities billed to third parties was up 3.7% and reflecting our proactive measures to offset the inflationary pressures we experienced during the year.

我要指出的是，該公用事業公司在 2022 年的成本管理得很好。根據公認會計原則，該公用事業公司的淨增長約為 4.6%。然而，調整後的 O&M 是一項非 GAAP 衡量指標，不包括退休服務成本和附加費以及向第三方收費的活動所涵蓋的費用，增長了 3.7%，反映了我們為抵消年內經歷的通脹壓力而採取的積極措施。

For perspective, 2022 GDPPI was 7%. We remain well within that level. As always, continuing to manage costs efficiently will remain a central focus under the PBR framework.

從長遠來看，2022 年 GDPPI 為 7%。我們仍處於該水平之內。一如既往，繼續有效地管理成本仍將是 PBR 框架下的核心焦點。

On Slide 8, utility CapEx for the year was approximately $357 million, in line with the guidance range of $350 million to $375 million we communicated during our third quarter earnings call. CapEx in 2022 was lower than originally anticipated due to supply chain disruptions, customer work delays, project rescoping, resource availability and permitting delays.

在幻燈片 8 中，今年的公用事業資本支出約為 3.57 億美元，符合我們在第三季度財報電話會議上傳達的 3.5 億美元至 3.75 億美元的指導範圍。由於供應鏈中斷、客戶工作延遲、項目範圍調整、資源可用性和許可延遲，2022 年的資本支出低於最初預期。

Looking ahead to 2023, we are expecting CapEx to increase to $370 million to $410 million. Under PBR, our ARA revenues cover baseline CapEx and O&M and we expect baseline CapEx of $300 million to $330 million annually. The remainder of our CapEx is recovered under separate mechanisms, such as our exceptional project recovery mechanism, which provide incremental earnings opportunities. We already have about $60 million in approved separately CapEx in our forecast for 2023 with another $12 million awaiting approval.

展望 2023 年，我們預計資本支出將增加至 3.7 億美元至 4.1 億美元。在 PBR 下，我們的 ARA 收入涵蓋基線資本支出和 O&M，我們預計基線資本支出每年為 3 億至 3.3 億美元。我們資本支出的剩餘部分是通過單獨的機制回收的，例如我們特殊的項目回收機制，它提供了增加收益的機會。在我們對 2023 年的預測中，我們已經單獨批准了約 6000 萬美元的資本支出，還有 1200 萬美元正在等待批准。

As you can see on the slide, there is some lumpiness in the forecast. But with projects awaiting PUC approval or applications to be filed with the PUC, CapEx could increase to $540 million by 2025. As of December 31, 2022, we had about [$472] million of EPRM project applications filed awaiting PUC approval. Of this total, 40% of the capital is forecasted in the 2023 to 2025 time frame, but weighted toward the back end with the balance following 2025. Not shown is this slide are potential investments for several utility-owned generation projects. Over the next few years, we may be filing applications for these projects, including for critical contingency generation and firm renewable generation facilities under the Stage 3 RFP that are needed for reliability and resilience.

正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，預測中有些不連貫。但是，由於項目正在等待 PUC 批准或向 PUC 提交申請，到 2025 年，資本支出可能會增加到 5.4 億美元。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們有大約 [4.72 億美元] 的 EPRM 項目申請正在等待 PUC 批准。在這一總額中，40% 的資本預計在 2023 年至 2025 年的時間框架內，但在 2025 年之後的餘額中向後端加權。這張幻燈片未顯示幾個公用事業擁有的發電項目的潛在投資。在接下來的幾年裡，我們可能會為這些項目提交申請，包括在第 3 階段 RFP 下的關鍵應急發電和可靠的可再生能源發電設施，這些設施需要可靠性和彈性。

The estimated capital cost for projects are in the process of being developed and any material advancements would begin after this forecast period.

項目的估計資本成本正在製定過程中，任何重大進展都將在該預測期之後開始。

Turning to the next slide, recall that there are 3 key earnings drivers for the utility under our PBR framework. First, the annual revenue adjustment or ARA, covering baseline O&M and baseline CapEx through an inflationary adjustment minus the customer dividend. For 2023, this inflationary adjustment was set in October of last year according to the Blue Chip GDPPI forecast for 2023 and is 3.68% net of the customer dividend. Second, the separate recovery mechanisms for eligible capital and O&M projects, providing recovery above the baseline levels covered by the ARA.

轉到下一張幻燈片，回想一下，在我們的 PBR 框架下，公用事業有 3 個主要的盈利驅動因素。首先，年度收入調整或 ARA，通過通貨膨脹調整減去客戶紅利，涵蓋基線 O&M 和基線資本支出。對於 2023 年，根據 Blue Chip GDPPI 對 2023 年的預測，這一通脹調整是在去年 10 月設定的，扣除客戶股息後為 3.68%。其次，為符合條件的資本和 O&M 項目提供單獨的回收機制，提供高於 ARA 涵蓋的基準水平的回收。

And third, performance incentive mechanisms or PIMs, which provide opportunity for additional rewards if we achieve preset goals. I'll now cover what we expect from each of these mechanisms in 2023. The ARA minus the customer dividend provides a net $33.5 million in revenues for 2023. The accrual for the ARA started January 1. To the extent we are able to manage O&M and capital efficiently, we would benefit in the form of additional earnings. Our current forecast assumes we've managed adjusted O&M and capital within the ARA inflationary adjustment.

第三，績效激勵機製或 PIM，如果我們實現預設目標，它會提供額外獎勵的機會。我現在將介紹我們在 2023 年對這些機制中的每一個的期望。ARA 減去客戶紅利為 2023 年提供了 3350 萬美元的淨收入。ARA 的應計費用從 1 月 1 日開始。在我們能夠管理 O&M 的範圍內和資本效率，我們將以額外收益的形式受益。我們目前的預測假設我們已經在 ARA 通脹調整範圍內管理調整後的 O&M 和資本。

With respect to separate recovery, we'll be accruing over $26 million in revenues for projects that have been approved by the PUC. This is under the EPRM and the major project interim recovery mechanism. Additional revenues of about $1 million are possible for separate recovery projects that are expected to be placed in service in 2023 and thus received a partial year of revenues. Lastly, we expect about $4 million in pretax income from net PIM rewards in 2023, primarily coming from the achievement of RPS-A and interconnection experience incentives. With respect to the fuel cost risk-sharing mechanism, we have assumed no penalty or reward.

關於單獨回收，我們將為 PUC 批准的項目累積超過 2600 萬美元的收入。這是在 EPRM 和重大項目臨時恢復機制下進行的。預計將於 2023 年投入使用並因此獲得部分年度收入的單獨回收項目可能會獲得約 100 萬美元的額外收入。最後，我們預計 2023 年淨 PIM 獎勵的稅前收入約為 400 萬美元，主要來自實現 RPS-A 和互連體驗獎勵。關於燃料成本風險分擔機制，我們不承擔任何懲罰或獎勵。

Turning to the bank on Slide 10. Net interest income grew in 2022 with earning asset growth and higher yields. ASB's net interest margin remained relatively stable in 2022 at 2.89%. Compared to 2.91% in 2021. Higher yields on loans and investment securities, strong loan growth and higher balances of investment securities benefited the bank's NIM although these items were offset by lower PPP fee income and our cost of funds. The average of funds was 16 basis points for the full year 2022, 10 basis points higher than the prior year.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的銀行。淨利息收入在 2022 年隨著資產增長和收益率的提高而增長。 ASB 的淨息差在 2022 年保持相對穩定，為 2.89%。與 2021 年的 2.91% 相比。更高的貸款和投資證券收益率、強勁的貸款增長和更高的投資證券餘額使銀行的 NIM 受益，儘管這些項目被較低的 PPP 費用收入和我們的資金成本所抵消。 2022年全年資金平均為16個基點，比上年高出10個基點。

We saw a larger increase in the fourth quarter as the bank utilized wholesale borrowings to support our strong loan growth. As a result, we saw an increase in our funding costs in the fourth quarter to 38 basis points up 25 basis points from the prior quarter. We do expect higher funding costs to continue throughout 2023, as market interest rates continue to increase and to the extent our level of wholesale funding remains elevated. However, we believe the strength of our core deposit base will allow us to maintain our funding cost advantage in comparison to our peers throughout 2023.

由於銀行利用批發借款來支持我們強勁的貸款增長，我們在第四季度看到了更大的增長。因此，我們看到第四季度的融資成本增加了 38 個基點，比上一季度增加了 25 個基點。我們確實預計整個 2023 年融資成本將持續上升，因為市場利率繼續上升，並且我們的批發融資水平在某種程度上仍然處於高位。然而，我們相信我們核心存款基礎的實力將使我們能夠在整個 2023 年保持與同行相比的融資成本優勢。

On Slide 11, we provide further detail on our expectations for ASP this year. We are expecting the provision for credit losses for the year ranging from $0 to $10 million. This range reflects our expectations for credit quality, loan growth and economic conditions. We continue to maintain our conservative lending practices with a loan book that is over 80% real estate secured at a conservative weighted average loan to value of around 50%. As a result, we're confident about the strong credit quality of our loan portfolio.

在幻燈片 11 上，我們進一步詳細說明了我們對今年 ASP 的預期。我們預計本年度的信用損失準備金範圍為 0 至 1000 萬美元。這一範圍反映了我們對信貸質量、貸款增長和經濟狀況的預期。我們繼續保持我們保守的貸款做法，貸款簿中超過 80% 的房地產以保守的加權平均貸款價值 50% 左右為抵押。因此，我們對我們貸款組合的強大信用質量充滿信心。

As Scott mentioned, loan growth in 2022 was at a historically strong level, but we do expect loan growth to return to a more normalized level in 2023. We currently expect loan growth to be in the low single-digit range this year. In order to fund the strong loan growth in 2022, given flat deposit growth we increased our wholesale borrowings and CD balances, which reduced our balance sheet asset sensitivity to be essentially neutral. As a result, although additional Fed rate increases will continue to benefit us, we'll also have to manage our funding cost to see the improved net interest margin. We are already taking measures to manage our funding costs, including focusing on paying down higher cost wholesale borrowings as those costs have come up considerably as short-term rates have risen.

正如 Scott 提到的，2022 年的貸款增長處於歷史強勢水平，但我們確實預計貸款增長將在 2023 年恢復到更正常的水平。我們目前預計今年的貸款增長將處於較低的個位數範圍內。為了為 2022 年強勁的貸款增長提供資金，鑑於存款增長持平，我們增加了批發借款和 CD 餘額，這將我們的資產負債表資產敏感性降低至基本中性。因此，儘管美聯儲進一步加息將繼續使我們受益，但我們還必須管理我們的融資成本才能看到淨息差的改善。我們已經在採取措施來管理我們的融資成本，包括專注於償還成本較高的批發借款，因為隨著短期利率的上升，這些成本已經大幅上升。

Similar to the utility, the bank is very focused on efficiency, and that is expected to help keep bank operating expense increase as moderate even while investing in the bank's digital transformation. We expect to see an improvement in the bank's efficiency ratio in 2023. I've discussed the drivers behind our expectations for utility and bank performance in 2023 and on Slide 12, we bring this all together for our 2023 guidance. We are initiating our 2023 consolidated earnings guidance of $2.15 to $2.35 per share.

與公用事業類似，該銀行非常注重效率，這有望幫助銀行保持適度的運營支出增長，即使在投資於銀行的數字化轉型時也是如此。我們預計 2023 年銀行的效率比率會有所改善。我已經討論了我們對 2023 年公用事業和銀行業績預期背後的驅動因素，在幻燈片 12 中，我們將所有這些因素匯總在一起以製定 2023 年的指導方針。我們正在啟動 2023 年每股 2.15 美元至 2.35 美元的綜合收益指引。

Our midpoint of $2.25 represents 5% growth over our 2022 EPS excluding the onetime $0.06 gain on sale for EverCharge we recorded in the first quarter of 2022. Our utility EPS guidance of $1.75 to $1.85 assumes recovery of COVID-19 related deferred expenses, the vast majority of which was related to bad debt. The amount to be recovered has been reduced significantly to approximately $11 million due to payments received and we expect a PUC decision in the second half of 2023.

我們 2.25 美元的中點值比我們 2022 年的每股收益增長了 5%，不包括我們在 2022 年第一季度記錄的 EverCharge 的一次性銷售收益 0.06 美元。我們 1.75 美元至 1.85 美元的公用事業每股收益指導假設與 COVID-19 相關的遞延費用恢復，巨大的其中大部分與壞賬有關。由於收到付款，要收回的金額已大幅減少至約 1100 萬美元，我們預計 PUC 將在 2023 年下半年做出決定。

We expect adjusted O&M excluding pension, to increase at a rate that is below the ARA inflation adjustment. This reflects the utility's continued focus on cost efficiency. I've already covered our expectations for 2023 regarding CapEx and contributions from PIM, but I'll add that beyond 2023, we expect a long-term utility earnings compound annual growth rate of 5% through 2025 of a 2022 base, including an average of $4 million to $5 million pretax annually from PIM.

我們預計調整後的 O&M（不包括養老金）將以低於 ARA 通脹調整的速度增長。這反映了公用事業公司對成本效率的持續關注。我已經涵蓋了我們對 2023 年資本支出和 PIM 貢獻的預期，但我要補充的是，到 2023 年以後，我們預計到 2025 年的長期公用事業收益複合年增長率為 5%，以 2022 年為基數，包括平均每年從 PIM 獲得 400 萬至 500 萬美元的稅前收入。

Last year, we projected long-term utility earnings growth guidance of 5% through 2024 with upside from PIMs. Our current guidance reflects continued higher generating station maintenance moderating in the coming years as we bring new generation and storage resources online and as units are retired. Higher O&M expenses due to inflationary environment and higher bad debt expense. Updated time lines for placing EPRM-recovered projects in service; and finally, higher interest expense related to higher rates.

去年，我們預計到 2024 年公用事業的長期收益增長目標為 5%，並受到 PIM 的推動。我們目前的指導反映了隨著我們將新一代發電和存儲資源上線以及隨著機組退役，未來幾年發電站維護工作將繼續放緩。由於通貨膨脹環境和更高的壞賬費用，更高的 O&M 費用。更新了將 EPRM 恢復的項目投入使用的時間表；最後，更高的利息支出與更高的利率相關。

Our bank guidance of $0.75 to $0.85 per share reflects continued solid profitability and earnings growth. It accounts for inflationary impacts to expenses, which we continue to manage through cost efficiencies including our branch optimization strategy. We expect low single-digit loan growth and net interest margin of 3% to 3.15%. We expect holding company expenses to be higher than in 2022 levels due to higher interest rates and debt balances, leading to increased holding company interest expense and we expect a holding company net loss of $0.34 to $0.36 in 2023.

我們的銀行指引為每股 0.75 美元至 0.85 美元，反映了持續穩定的盈利能力和收益增長。它考慮了通貨膨脹對費用的影響，我們繼續通過成本效率（包括我們的分支機構優化策略）對其進行管理。我們預計低個位數的貸款增長和 3% 至 3.15% 的淨息差。由於更高的利率和債務餘額，我們預計控股公司的支出將高於 2022 年的水平，從而導致控股公司的利息支出增加，我們預計 2023 年控股公司的淨虧損為 0.34 美元至 0.36 美元。

We do not anticipate any equity issuances for '23. I'll now turn the call back to Scott, who will provide closing remarks.

我們預計 23 年不會發行任何股票。我現在將電話轉回 Scott，他將發表結束語。

Mahalo Paul and mahalo to all of you for joining us today. In summary, we had a great year characterized by strong performance from both the utility and bank, and our investors benefited from our unique combination of operating companies during a challenging macroeconomic period.

Mahalo Paul 和 mahalo 感謝大家今天加入我們。總而言之，我們度過了美好的一年，公用事業和銀行都表現強勁，在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟時期，我們的投資者受益於我們獨特的運營公司組合。

There were no surprises in our results, and we executed well to the higher revised guidance given in the third quarter. Our new regulatory framework at the utility is showing that it provides us with stability and predictability. And as macroeconomic and operational headwinds ease up, we expect to see growing performance as we execute our strategies of investing in our system and running the business efficiently for our customers.

我們的業績沒有任何意外，我們很好地執行了第三季度給出的更高修訂後的指引。我們在公用事業公司的新監管框架表明它為我們提供了穩定性和可預測性。隨著宏觀經濟和運營逆風的緩和，我們期望在執行我們的系統投資戰略和為客戶高效運營業務時看到業績增長。

Our bank will continue to be run conservatively and is well situated to respond to changes in the economy and interest rate environment. We are confident that we will again deliver solid results in 2023. With that, let's open up the call for questions.

我們的銀行將繼續保守經營，並做好準備應對經濟和利率環境的變化。我們有信心在 2023 年再次取得可觀的成果。有了這個，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shahriar Pourreza。

It's actually (inaudible) for Shar. Congrats on a great quarter and to Paul on the new position.

它實際上是（聽不清）Shar。祝賀一個偉大的季度，並祝賀保羅擔任新職位。

Thanks, Shar. Appreciate it.

謝謝，莎爾。欣賞它。

Maybe starting off on the utility. Can you help elaborate on the O&M targets that you're setting prospectively and conditions that you're seeing across the business? Any constraints on labor, materials and any path normalize? Just to get a sense of kind of percentage of O&M that's subject to external factors? And maybe what will cause you to rethink kind of any level of regulatory release?

也許從實用程序開始。您能否詳細說明您設定的前瞻性 O&M 目標以及您在整個企業中看到的條件？對勞動力、材料和任何路徑規範化的任何限制？只是為了了解受外部因素影響的運維百分比？也許什麼會導致您重新考慮任何級別的監管發布？

Yes. Well, maybe I can start. What we have baked into our forecast, there are still some elevated O&M expenses, especially with respect to our power plant generation station maintenance. We are expecting that to continue into 2023, but albeit it will start to taper off as we start to get more new generation resources online. And later on, of course, as we're able to retire some of our older power plant units.

是的。好吧，也許我可以開始了。根據我們的預測，運營和維護費用仍然有所增加，尤其是在我們的發電廠發電站維護方面。我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年，但隨著我們開始在線獲取更多新一代資源，這種情況將開始逐漸減少。當然，後來我們能夠淘汰一些舊的發電廠設備。

So we've taken that into account in our look ahead. Like we experienced in 2022, I think the utility was able to respond fairly well to managing overall expenses in other areas of the company. So we're going to continue to be able to do that in 2023 and beyond. Maybe, Paul, if you have any further comment specifically about our management or our expenses within the ARA.

所以我們在展望未來時考慮到了這一點。就像我們在 2022 年所經歷的那樣，我認為該公用事業公司能夠很好地管理公司其他領域的總體支出。因此，我們將在 2023 年及以後繼續這樣做。也許，保羅，如果你對我們的管理或我們在 ARA 內的開支有任何進一步的評論。

Yes. So we are committed to managing O&M and looking at efficiencies to further ensure that our O&M stays within the ARA recovery levels. I'll just provide a data point in terms of how successful the utility has been over the past few years in managing O&M efficiently. So if you look at O&M and I'm referencing adjusted O&M, which strips out some of the pension and other costs that are recovered from other parties from 2019 through 2022, if you look at the compounded annual growth rate of O&M, it's been less than 0.5%. So utility has done very well in managing those costs. Obviously, the low-hanging fruit has probably been harvested. So it does get a little bit harder over time.

是的。因此，我們致力於管理 O&M 並關注效率，以進一步確保我們的 O&M 保持在 ARA 恢復水平之內。我將僅提供一個數據點，說明該實用程序在過去幾年中在有效管理 O&M 方面的成功程度。因此，如果你看一下 O&M，我指的是調整後的 O&M，它剔除了從 2019 年到 2022 年從其他方收回的一些養老金和其他成本，如果你看一下 O&M 的複合年增長率，它會更少小於 0.5%。因此，公用事業公司在管理這些成本方面做得很好。顯然，唾手可得的果實可能已經收穫。所以隨著時間的推移它確實變得有點困難。

But I think the utility has shown that it has the ability to manage O&M well within this PBR framework, which again we feel is a good framework because we know what -- it adds stability and predictability. We know what revenues we're getting. And so our task as a management team is to ensure that we conduct a business such that our expenses come in within that area allowance.

但我認為該實用程序已經表明它有能力在此 PBR 框架內很好地管理 O&M，我們再次認為這是一個很好的框架，因為我們知道什麼——它增加了穩定性和可預測性。我們知道我們獲得了多少收入。因此，我們作為管理團隊的任務是確保我們開展業務，使我們的開支在該領域的補貼範圍內。

Excellent. I think that's very helpful. And you kind of mentioned a part of my second question which was on the revenue side kind of since the -- kind of ARA portion of the revenue formulas for '23 is fairly well defined by the GDPPI. Just a question on what level of visibility do you have on the other PBR elements, namely the non-RPS related ones, like AMI energy efficiency as those could kind of impact earnings? And how is the most recent fuel cost trajectory impacting your risk-sharing calculations?

出色的。我認為這很有幫助。你提到了我第二個問題的一部分，這是關於收入方面的，因為 23 年收入公式的 ARA 部分由 GDPPI 很好地定義。只是一個問題，您對其他 PBR 元素（即非 RPS 相關元素，例如 AMI 能源效率，因為它們可能會影響收益）的可見性水平如何？最近的燃料成本軌跡如何影響您的風險分擔計算？

Yes, I'll start. I think with respect to the full slate of performance incentive mechanisms or PIMS, we now have a track record of a full year of operating under the PBR and experiencing how those PIMs perform. So the utility is able to put their focus on the PIMs that they have pretty good line of sight on controlling. Perhaps a good example is the interconnection PIM which the utility performed fairly well last year, earning a reward there. Those are the types of PIMs that provide the utility with the ability to manage their work how they plan and execute the work.

是的，我會開始。我認為，就績效激勵機製或 PIMS 的全部內容而言，我們現在擁有在 PBR 下運營一整年的記錄，並體驗了這些 PIM 的表現。因此，該公用事業公司能夠將注意力集中在他們在控制方面具有很好視線的 PIM 上。也許一個很好的例子是電力公司去年表現相當不錯的互連 PIM，在那裡獲得了回報。這些是 PIM 的類型，它們使公用事業能夠管理他們的工作，如何計劃和執行工作。

And ultimately achieve on the PIM rules. That's going to continue to be the focus of our utility team. There are admittedly some other PIMs that are a little bit more challenging to just have direct control over. And one example of that is probably the fuel cost risk sharing PIM where we did receive a penalty based on overall fuel prices last year. As best we can, we're going to continue to focus on the PIMs that we do have control over. And meanwhile, on the other PIMs, we'll just as we see how they play out during the course of the year, that will just be a signal on how we need to adjust in other areas of the business.

並最終在PIM規則上實現。這將繼續成為我們公用事業團隊的重點。無可否認，還有一些其他 PIM 要直接控制要更具挑戰性。其中一個例子可能是燃料成本風險分擔 PIM，我們確實收到了基於去年整體燃料價格的罰款。盡我們所能，我們將繼續關注我們確實可以控制的 PIM。與此同時，在其他 PIM 上，我們將看到它們在這一年中的表現，這只是一個信號，表明我們需要如何在業務的其他領域進行調整。

And I'll just add, there are good number of PIMs. But what we focus on, at least in terms of providing guidance that we initiated here on the PIMs is really the RPS-A and some of the DER related PIMs because those are the ones that are more meaningful. A lot of the other ones, one is more difficult to predict, but of smaller amounts. And so those tend to have puts and takes that generally offset in our -- we're at least -- what we're forecasting here. So again, the most important ones that we focus on would be the RPS-A PIM, which we see overtime growing as additional projects come online.

我只想補充一點，有很多 PIM。但我們關注的是 RPS-A 和一些與 DER 相關的 PIM，至少就提供我們在 PIM 上啟動的指南而言是這樣，因為它們更有意義。很多其他的，一個更難預測，但數量較小。因此，那些往往會在我們的 - 我們至少 - 我們在這裡的預測中普遍抵消。因此，我們再次關注的最重要的是 RPS-A PIM，隨著更多項目上線，我們看到加班時間在增加。

Okay. That makes sense. And the last one, if I may, really quick. Just on what's embedded in guidance on the bank side for repricing of earnings assets, and that's been kind of tracking, I believe since June until that's raised from roughly $175 million to $475 million. But just beyond that, kind of what are you embedding in terms of repricing kind of as we look at the guidance today?

好的。這就說得通了。最後一個，如果可以的話，真的很快。就銀行方面對收益資產重新定價的指導意見而言，這一直是一種跟踪，我相信自 6 月以來，直到從大約 1.75 億美元增加到 4.75 億美元。但除此之外，當我們今天看指南時，你在重新定價方面嵌入了什麼？

Yes. So if you're referring to our NIM, we are expecting that to increase in 2023 to 3% to 3.15%. That increase is in a large part, based on managing the funding side, so paying down higher cost wholesale borrowings. That at the margin has -- those costs have increased quite significantly, as the Fed has increased rates. So we see an opportunity as our investment portfolio pays down. Those proceeds are used to pay off some of those higher cost borrowings. And that will help us increase our net interest margin.

是的。因此，如果您指的是我們的 NIM，我們預計到 2023 年將增加 3% 至 3.15%。這種增長在很大程度上是基於資金方面的管理，因此需要支付更高成本的批發借款。隨著美聯儲提高利率，這些成本已經大幅增加。因此，隨著我們的投資組合取得回報，我們看到了機會。這些收益用於償還部分成本較高的借款。這將幫助我們提高淨息差。

And the revenue side of the adjustable rate assets, those are kind of in plan marked as of the last Fed date, any assumptions around increases for '23 or just holding flat?

可調整利率資產的收入方面，那些在美聯儲上次日期標記的計劃中，關於 23 年增長或持平的任何假設？

Yes. So in terms of our adjustable rate assets, as we mentioned, because of the strong loan growth that we had in 2022, we did have to supplement on the funding side, some of these higher-cost sources of funds, FHLB and some CDs. And so our balance sheet is a little bit more asset neutral, meaning additional fund rate increases doesn't -- is not accretive to NIM, it does -- it's accretive to net interest income. So in terms of further Fed rate increases, we wouldn't expect a significant impact to our NIM. But again, as I mentioned, if we are able to manage the funding side and pay down those higher cost borrowings, our balance sheet will become more asset sensitive in which case for the Fed fund rate increases would be accretive to NIM.

是的。因此，就我們的可調利率資產而言，正如我們提到的，由於我們在 2022 年的貸款增長強勁，我們確實必須在資金方面補充一些成本較高的資金來源、FHLB 和一些 CD。因此，我們的資產負債表更加資產中性，這意味著額外的基金利率增加不會 - 不會增加 NIM，它確實 - 它會增加淨利息收入。因此，就美聯儲進一步加息而言，我們預計不會對我們的 NIM 產生重大影響。但同樣，正如我提到的，如果我們能夠管理融資方面並償還那些成本較高的借款，我們的資產負債表將變得更加資產敏感，在這種情況下，聯邦基金利率上升將增加 NIM。

So that's the plan currently is, again, to focus on paying down some of those higher-cost funding sources.

因此，目前的計劃再次是專注於支付一些成本較高的資金來源。

Yes. And we expect to have more capacity to do that as we see the loan activity sort of get back more towards normal levels.

是的。我們希望有更多的能力來做到這一點，因為我們看到貸款活動有點回到正常水平。

Yes. We just saw a very unusually high probably more than a decade of high loan growth in which we had to tap some of these other sources of funding.

是的。我們剛剛看到非常異常的高貸款增長可能超過十年，我們不得不利用其他一些資金來源。

Yes. Let me ask Ann Teranishi, our Bank President, if she has any other comment.

是的。讓我問一下我們的銀行行長 Ann Teranishi，她是否有任何其他評論。

Yes. Maybe just specific to the question about our adjustable rate portfolio, about $1 billion of our loan book is in the adjustable rate category. So that does change as the rates go up. Also, all of our new origination, all the new loans coming on are at a higher rate than what's on our books. So the rate environment in that sense helps us. But I think what Paul and Scott are referencing is what all banks are experiencing is just increasing funding costs.

是的。也許只是針對我們的可調整利率組合的問題，我們的貸款賬簿中約有 10 億美元屬於可調整利率類別。因此，隨著利率上升，這確實會發生變化。此外，我們所有的新貸款，所有新貸款的利率都高於我們賬面上的利率。因此，從這個意義上講，利率環境對我們有幫助。但我認為保羅和斯科特所指的是所有銀行都在經歷的只是增加融資成本。

The one thing I would add to that, though, is Hawaii traditionally has a fairly sticky deposit base. So our betas are low. Our deposit betas are low and our funding costs, while they are increasing. They are lower relative to our mainland peers. So that's something that should help us whether that's particular portion of the rate cycle.

不過，我要補充的一件事是，夏威夷傳統上擁有相當粘性的存款基礎。所以我們的貝塔值很低。我們的存款貝塔係數很低，而我們的融資成本卻在增加。相對於我們大陸的同業，它們較低。因此，無論這是否是利率週期的特定部分，這都應該對我們有所幫助。

The next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates.

下一個問題來自 Glenrock Associates 的 Paul Patterson。

So just -- I apologize. I just want to follow up on (inaudible) question, I guess, from a different angle. When looking at the NIM, I just -- I guess, it sounds like you're -- could you just walk through a little bit for me. I guess I'm a little slow on what's driving your expected lower costs.

所以只是 - 我道歉。我想我只是想從另一個角度跟進（聽不清）問題。在查看 NIM 時，我只是——我想，這聽起來像是——你能不能為我介紹一下。我想我對推動您預期降低成本的因素有點慢。

You're saying you're paying down wholesale cost -- wholesale funding, are you going to be increasing deposits? Or is this -- just walk me through in terms of what's leading to because it seems that your costs are going up. And I just did not clear on the NIM, what you're projecting to decrease that exactly? I mean you're going to be using less wholesale. Where is that coming from now? Where is the source of funding coming form, is it coming from deposits?

你是說你正在支付批發成本——批發資金，你會增加存款嗎？或者是——請告訴我導致的結果，因為您的成本似乎在上升。我只是不清楚 NIM，您打算如何減少 NIM？我的意思是你將減少批發使用。那是從哪裡來的呢？資金來源是哪裡，是存款嗎？

So in terms of the funding, right? So we expect the loan growth to normalize from the high growth rates that we had in 2022. So in 2022, we had to find additional funding beyond sort of the investment portfolio runoff. And because deposit growth was relatively flat in 2022, we had to take on these higher cost wholesale borrowings. Looking forward to 2023, we expect loan growth to moderate. And so we expect the runoff from the investment portfolio as well as retained earnings to provide the funding to pay down some of these wholesale borrowings. And so that's what allows us to shift the kind of the funding mix on the balance sheet.

那麼就資金而言，對嗎？因此，我們預計貸款增長將從 2022 年的高增長率恢復正常。因此，在 2022 年，我們必須在投資組合徑流之外尋找額外的資金。而且由於 2022 年存款增長相對平穩，我們不得不承擔這些成本較高的批發借款。展望 2023 年，我們預計貸款增長將放緩。因此，我們預計投資組合的流失以及留存收益將為償還部分批發借款提供資金。因此，這就是讓我們能夠改變資產負債表上的資金組合類型的原因。

I got you. I understand. So and the loan growth you see going down to what level?

我接到你了。我明白。那麼，您看到貸款增長下降到什麼水平？

Loan growth of low to mid-single digits,which is the normal sort of rate in the Hawaii market.

中低個位數的貸款增長，這是夏威夷市場的正常增長率。

Okay. And there's no pressure at all in the -- on deposits in terms of -- in terms of increased cost there at all. The market just doesn't -- if there is any competition from online banking or anything like that? Or you're not seeing any, I guess, is what you're expecting, at least or what you've been seeing?

好的。就存款而言，就成本增加而言，根本沒有壓力。市場就是不——是否存在來自網上銀行或類似的競爭？或者你沒有看到任何，我猜，是你所期待的，至少是你一直看到的？

Well, as rates rise, I mean, we are seeing some pressures more on the commercial side versus our core deposit base. But over time, we do expect rates to follow kind of the Fed fund rate increases. I would say we still believe we have a low deposit beta relative to the Mainland, much lower. We're -- to date, our deposit beta is in sort of the single-digit range. So we expect that to kind of remain as we go through this rate cycle. But again, it is a faster increase in rates versus in prior rate cycles.

嗯，隨著利率上升，我的意思是，與我們的核心存款基礎相比，我們看到商業方面的壓力更大。但隨著時間的推移，我們確實預計利率會跟隨聯邦基金利率的上漲。我想說的是，我們仍然相信我們的存款貝塔值相對於大陸而言較低，低得多。我們 - 迄今為止，我們的存款貝塔處於個位數範圍內。因此，我們預計在我們經歷這個利率週期時這種情況會保持下去。但同樣，與之前的利率週期相比，利率增長更快。

So we could be a little bit higher than that. But again in the context of betas across the nation. I think we're in a pretty good position here in the Hawaii market.

所以我們可以比那高一點。但又是在全國測試版的背景下。我認為我們在夏威夷市場處於非常有利的地位。

And just to add to what you just said, Paul, in terms of most of the pressure coming from the commercial side, of our deposits, our core deposits, 75% are retail, 25% are commercial. So a large part of our base is retail with a little bit less pressure.

補充一下你剛才說的話，保羅，就大部分來自商業方面的壓力而言，我們的存款，我們的核心存款，75% 是零售，25% 是商業。因此，我們的很大一部分基地是零售業，壓力較小。

The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Maybe just coming back to the questions on cost for a moment ago and just talk about the earnings trajectory. I see the 5% figure rolled forward here. Can you talk a little bit about the utility earnings growth and sort of the cadence of that inflation playing itself out? I mean, effectively, let me ask this directly, given the fact that inflation, at least from near-term perspective, seems acute, are we expecting for them to be a linear trajectory to this 5% growth? Or do you think actually the '24 to '25 time frame to see something of an uptick as you deal with and effectively absorb some of these inflationary items as well as some of the commentary you made on CapEx in the remarks as well.

也許剛才回到成本問題，只談盈利軌跡。我在這裡看到 5% 的數字向前滾動。你能談談公用事業收入的增長和通貨膨脹的節奏嗎？我的意思是，實際上，讓我直接問這個問題，考慮到通脹，至少從近期的角度來看，似乎很嚴重，我們是否期望它們成為 5% 增長的線性軌跡？或者你認為實際上在 24 到 25 年的時間框架內看到一些上升，因為你處理並有效地吸收了一些這些通貨膨脹項目以及你在評論中對資本支出所做的一些評論。

Yes, I can start, and then I can ask Dane to kind of jump in here. But in terms of the inflationary question, we do expect that to moderate over time. So that has been built into our forecast. I would say that because of the inflationary adjustment we received in 2022 versus what actually happened, there is a little bit of a leakage, if you will, where we do have some catch-up. So that's part of kind of our forecast, right?

是的，我可以開始了，然後我可以讓 Dane 加入進來。但就通貨膨脹問題而言，我們確實希望它會隨著時間的推移而緩和。因此，這已納入我們的預測。我想說的是，由於我們在 2022 年收到的通貨膨脹調整與實際發生的情況相比，存在一點點洩漏，如果你願意的話，我們確實有一些追趕。所以這是我們預測的一部分，對吧？

Because the ARA was at 2.78%, I believe, in the inflation that we actually realized was higher than that. And so again, going forward, though, we expect to manage within the ARA, and we expect to catch up over time. With respect to your question on linear growth, I do believe we're expecting a relatively consistent growth as opposed to variations between the years. Again, because under the PBR framework, right, it provides more predictability and stability. And so we're forecasting kind of the ARA inflationary adjustment to sort of normalize as we go out here. And then it's just matter of then planning our work and our O&M to be within that level. So the growth would be a little bit more in the linear.

因為 ARA 為 2.78%，我相信，我們實際意識到的通貨膨脹率高於該水平。因此，展望未來，我們希望在 ARA 內進行管理，並且我們希望隨著時間的推移趕上來。關於你關於線性增長的問題，我確實相信我們期待相對穩定的增長，而不是幾年之間的變化。同樣，因為在PBR框架下，對吧，它提供了更多的可預測性和穩定性。因此，我們預測 ARA 通貨膨脹調整會在我們走出去時正常化。然後只需將我們的工作和 O&M 規劃在該級別內即可。所以增長會是線性的。

Now having said that, I think where there could be earnings that may not as be as linear would be EPRM because that's really based on when we file the applications when we start work, et cetera. Dane, do you have any to add to that?

話雖如此，我認為 EPRM 的收入可能不是線性的，因為這實際上取決於我們在開始工作時提交申請的時間，等等。 Dane，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I would echo what Paul said because if you look at our CapEx trajectories there, we do have some projects that are awaiting PUC approval under the EPRM mechanism. And the timing of those projects are slowly coming in, in the 2023 and 2024 period. So I mean, there is a slight opportunity there. But as Paul mentioned in his prepared comments, for those projects that are awaiting EPRM recovery, 40% of those projects -- 40% of those costs are within this '23 to '25 forecast period. But a large part of those expenses and the completion of those projects are expected in the sort of back-ended part of this forecast.

不，我會回應保羅所說的，因為如果你看看我們在那裡的資本支出軌跡，我們確實有一些項目正在等待 PUC 在 EPRM 機制下的批准。這些項目的時間正在慢慢到來，在 2023 年和 2024 年期間。所以我的意思是，那裡有一個小小的機會。但正如保羅在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣，對於那些正在等待 EPRM 恢復的項目，這些項目中的 40%——其中 40% 的成本都在 23 到 25 年的預測期內。但這些費用的很大一部分和這些項目的完成預計會出現在該預測的後端部分。

Got it. So if I'm hearing you, there's maybe some degree of upside as you see these programs play themselves out. But perhaps just as you look at the outlook for as much as this, perhaps a near-term impact or a pressure point on O&M, you're managing this to have a more linear trajectory?

知道了。因此，如果我聽到你的聲音，當你看到這些程序發揮作用時，可能會有一定程度的好處。但也許就像你看待前景一樣多，也許是對 O&M 的近期影響或壓力點，你正在管理它以獲得更線性的軌跡？

Yes, that's right, Julien.

是的，沒錯，朱利安。

All right. Fair enough. Excellent. And actually, how does that fit with just a regulatory recovery timeline? If you can speak to that just quickly through the '25 timeline in terms of managing these pressures.

好的。很公平。出色的。實際上，這如何與監管恢復時間表相適應？如果您能在管理這些壓力方面通過 25 年時間表快速說明這一點。

Sorry, Julien, you're asking for how is our outlook in terms of regulatory lags or is there anything you...

抱歉，朱利安，你問的是我們在監管滯後方面的前景如何，或者你有什麼...

Yes. Just how do you think about this aligning against your regulatory lag expectations? Obviously, there's some degree of under earning there and not obviously it [generates] by the year. Can you talk a little bit about how that fits against this inflation narrative in terms of managing the pain points and keeping it linear through the forecast?

是的。您如何看待這與您的監管滯後預期相一致？顯然，那裡存在一定程度的收入不足，而且顯然不會按年[產生]。你能談談這在管理痛點和通過預測保持線性方面如何適應這種通貨膨脹的說法嗎？

Well, I'll speak generally, just to begin with and Paul, if you want to jump in or Dane. But I think one of the nice things about the PBR regulatory framework is that it actually has removed a lot of the regulatory lag because effective January 1, that's when the new ARA, the adjustment kicked in for us. So we are seeing higher revenues provided by that ARA adjustment, the net 3.68%. So what, at least on our core CapEx and core O&M spend, that gives us the line of sight so that we can manage within that going forward. And then with respect to the larger projects, whether they're MPIR or EPRM projects. Again, those are large -- typically large projects that we plan accordingly, and we will reduce the risk by not making major commitments until we actually have the commission's approval.

好吧，我會一般性地發言，首先是保羅，如果你想加入進來，或者戴恩。但我認為 PBR 監管框架的一個好處是它實際上消除了很多監管滯後，因為從 1 月 1 日起，新的 ARA 開始為我們進行調整。因此，我們看到 ARA 調整帶來了更高的收入，即淨 3.68%。那麼，至少在我們的核心資本支出和核心 O&M 支出方面，這給了我們視線，以便我們能夠在未來進行管理。然後關於較大的項目，無論是 MPIR 還是 EPRM 項目。同樣，這些都是大型項目——通常是我們相應規劃的大型項目，我們將通過在實際獲得委員會批准之前不做出重大承諾來降低風險。

Thank you. There are currently no additional questions registered at this time. So I would like to pass the conference back over to the management team for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題登記在這個時候。因此，我想將會議轉回給管理團隊作閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining us, everyone. Have a good rest of your day.

感謝大家加入我們。好好休息一天。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

That concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。