Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Hayward Holdings third-quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Jessie, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加海沃德控股 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫傑西，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin Maczka, Vice President, Investor Relations and FP&A. Mr. Maczka, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Kevin Maczka。Maczka 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早安。

We issued our third-quarter 2024 earnings press release this morning, which has been posted to the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.hayward.com. There, you can also find an earnings slide presentation that we will reference during this call.

今天上午，我們發布了 2024 年第三季財報新聞稿，該新聞稿已發佈在我們網站 Investor.hayward.com 的投資者關係部分。在那裡，您還可以找到我們將在本次電話會議期間參考的收益幻燈片簡報。

I'm today joined by Kevin Holleran, President, Chief Executive Officer; and Eifion Jones, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天，總裁兼執行長凱文霍勒蘭 (Kevin Holleran) 也加入了我的行列。以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Eifion Jones。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, the company may make certain statements that are considered forward looking in nature, including management's outlook for 2024 and future periods. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those disclosed in our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, that could cause actual results to differ materially. The company does not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，公司可能會做出某些被視為前瞻性的聲明，包括管理階層對 2024 年和未來時期的展望。此類陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K 表格和10-Q 表格中揭露的風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果存在重大差異。本公司不承擔更新此類前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

Additionally, during today's call, the company will discuss non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures discussed on this call to the comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and the appendix to the slide presentation.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，該公司將討論非公認會計準則措施。本次電話會議中討論的歷史非公認會計準則衡量指標與可比較公認會計準則衡量指標的對帳可以在我們的收益發布和幻燈片簡報的附錄中找到。

I would now like to turn the call over to Kevin Holleran.

我現在想把電話轉給凱文·霍勒蘭。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. It's my pleasure to welcome all of you to Hayward's third-quarter earnings call.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早安。我很高興歡迎大家參加海沃德的第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, I'd like to offer our deepest sympathies to those impacted by the hurricanes that devastated many regions across the Southeastern United States, including in our home state of North Carolina. We have many employees, customers, and other stakeholders throughout the Southeast. Our thoughts are with our neighboring communities in this time of great need, and we are committed to assisting in any way we can.

在我們開始之前，我謹向遭受颶風襲擊的人們表示最深切的同情，颶風摧毀了美國東南部許多地區，包括我們的家鄉北卡羅來納州。我們在整個東南地區擁有許多員工、客戶和其他利害關係人。在這個急需的時刻，我們的心與鄰近社區同在，我們致力於盡我們所能提供幫助。

Now, I'll start on slide 4 of our earnings presentation with today's key messages. I am pleased to report third-quarter results consistent with expectations. We executed well again this quarter, delivering strong profitability, increased cash flow, and improved balance sheet. We continue to drive our growth strategy by advancing our technology leadership position, leveraging our culture of continuous improvement and operational excellence, and expanding customer relationships.

現在，我將從我們收益簡報的第四張投影片開始，介紹今天的關鍵資訊。我很高興地報告第三季業績符合預期。本季我們再次表現出色，實現了強勁的獲利能力、增加的現金流和改善的資產負債表。我們透過提升我們的技術領先地位、利用我們持續改進和卓越營運的文化以及擴大客戶關係來繼續推動我們的成長策略。

Net sales increased 3% year over year in the third quarter, driven by positive net price realization and the recent acquisition of ChlorKing. We were very pleased with the performance of this business in the first full quarter of Hayward ownership.

受正淨價實現和最近收購 ChlorKing 的推動，第三季淨銷售額年增 3%。我們對海沃德所有權第一個完整季度這項業務的表現非常滿意。

Gross profit margins expanded 190 basis points to 49.7%. This represents the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year gross margin expansion.

毛利率擴大 190 個基點至 49.7%。這代表毛利率連續第七個季度年增。

Cash flow generation was also solid, with cash from operations increasing 27% year to date. This enabled us to fund our growth initiatives and reduce balance sheet leverage by more than a full turn on a year-over-year basis to 2.8 times.

現金流的產生也很穩健，今年迄今來自營運的現金成長了 27%。這使我們能夠為我們的成長計劃提供資金，並將資產負債表槓桿率同比降低一整週以上，達到 2.8 倍。

After a slow start to the pool season this year, our North American business benefited from an extended season and improved in-season orders. Additionally, the early buy program is progressing in line with our expected participation.

在今年泳池季節開局緩慢後，我們的北美業務受益於季節的延長和當季訂單的改善。此外，早期購買計劃的進展符合我們的預期參與。

Finally, we're refining our full-year guidance, raising the lower end of the ranges to reflect modestly improved sales and profitability. For the full year 2024, we now expect net sales to increase approximately 3% to 5% and adjusted EBITDA to increase approximately 5% to 9% from full year 2023.

最後，我們正在完善全年指導，提高範圍的下限，以反映銷售額和盈利能力的適度改善。對於 2024 年全年，我們目前預計淨銷售額將比 2023 年全年增長約 3% 至 5%，調整後 EBITDA 將增長約 5% 至 9%。

Turning now to slide 5, highlighting the results of the quarter. Net sales in the third quarter increased 3% year over year to $228 million. The positive contributions of net price and ChlorKing were partially offset by lower volumes. By segment, net sales increased 5% in North America and declined 7% in Europe and rest of world.

現在轉到投影片 5，重點介紹本季的業績。第三季淨銷售額年增 3%，達到 2.28 億美元。淨價和 ChlorKing 的積極貢獻被銷售下降部分抵消。按細分市場劃分，北美淨銷售額成長 5%，歐洲和世界其他地區下降 7%。

As I mentioned, gross profit margins expanded 190 basis points year over year to 49.7% despite an approximate 70-basis-point diluted impact of purchase accounting related to the ChlorKing acquisition. This is a strong performance in a seasonally lower sales quarter.

正如我所提到的，儘管 ChlorKing 收購相關的採購會計稀釋了大約 70 個基點的影響，但毛利率仍同比增長 190 個基點，達到 49.7%。這是在季節性較低的銷售季度中的強勁表現。

Adjusted EBITDA margin in the third quarter increased 110 basis points year over year to 22.5%, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.11.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年增 110 個基點至 22.5%，調整後稀釋每股收益為 0.11 美元。

Turning now to slide 6 for a business update. In-season demand for Hayward products was generally consistent with our expectations in the quarter, with North America outperforming Europe and rest of world. In North America, we saw increased in-season orders as the pool season started slowly on the front end but extended on the back end.

現在轉到投影片 6 以了解業務更新。海沃德產品的當季需求整體與我們本季的預期一致，北美地區的表現優於歐洲和世界其他地區。在北美，我們看到當季訂單增加，因為泳池季節在前端緩慢開始，但在後端延長。

Aftermarket repair and replacement remains resilient, but demand for the majority of new construction and remodel continues to be impacted by current economic conditions and interest rates. However, while we see the number of US permits down, the value of permits remains more resilient, indicative of relative strength in the high end new construction and remodel segments of the market.

售後維修和更換仍然具有彈性，但大多數新建和改造的需求繼續受到當前經濟狀況和利率的影響。然而，雖然我們看到美國許可證數量下降，但許可證價值仍然更具彈性，顯示高端新建和改建市場領域的相對實力。

The early buy programs are nearing completion in North America and underway in Europe, and we are pleased with the progress to date. Incoming orders are trending in line with expectations, and we anticipate solid participation.

北美的早期購買計劃已接近完成，歐洲的早期購買計劃正在進行中，我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意。新收到的訂單趨勢符合預期，我們預期會有穩定的參與。

The pool industry has always been very disciplined on price, and we continue to expect positive net price utilization of at least 2% in 2024. We've been implementing value-based pricing strategies and SKU rationalization to optimize our price structure and ensure our products are priced appropriately relative to the exceptional value provided to pool owners. Given these initiatives, we implemented annual price increases in conjunction with the early buy program that we expect to yield approximately 3% to 5% in the US and 1% to 2% in international markets.

泳池產業在價格方面一直非常嚴格，我們仍然預計 2024 年淨價格利用率至少為 2%。我們一直在實施基於價值的定價策略和 SKU 合理化，以優化我們的價格結構，並確保我們的產品定價相對於為池所有者提供的卓越價值是適當的。鑑於這些舉措，我們結合早期購買計畫實施了年度漲價，預計美國市場的收益率約為 3% 至 5%，國際市場的收益率約為 1% 至 2%。

Technology leadership and new product introduction are central to our growth strategy, and we are extremely excited to see our efforts recognized recently by the largest global distributor. Specifically, Hayward received separate awards for both innovation leadership and operational excellence. This achievement is a testament to the dedication and hard work of all of our teams and employees at Hayward. Thank you for enabling us to be such a valued partner in our industry.

技術領先和新產品推出是我們成長策略的核心，我們非常高興看到我們的努力最近得到了全球最大經銷商的認可。具體來說，海沃德因創新領導力和卓越運營而獲得了單獨的獎項。這項成就證明了海沃德所有團隊和員工的奉獻和辛勤工作。感謝您使我們成為業界如此重要的合作夥伴。

One example of an exciting new innovation is the microchannel temperature control unit which we introduced you to in a prior earnings call. This industry-first product offers the ability to heat pool water, cool it to a comfortable temperature in the extreme summer heat, and even cool as low as 40 degrees if desired for a cold plunge. We are encouraged by the initial success of this unique product in the marketplace.

令人興奮的新創新的一個例子是我們在先前的財報電話會議中向您介紹的微通道溫度控制單元。這款業界首創的產品能夠加熱泳池水，在夏季酷熱時將其冷卻至舒適的溫度，如果需要冷水浴，甚至可以將其冷卻至 40 度。這種獨特產品在市場上的初步成功讓我們深受鼓舞。

Today, we're highlighting another new product introduction, the Paramount RDX unblockable drain. We continue to lead in drain technology, and the new RDX combines safety and high flow, ensuring swift and effective removal of debris. Compatible with concrete finishes, the design is able to collect large debris while blending seamlessly into the pool floor. Differentiated innovative products like these add value to our customers and drive future growth.

今天，我們重點介紹另一個新產品，派拉蒙 RDX 暢通排水管。我們繼續引領排水技術，新型 RDX 結合了安全性和高流量，確保快速有效地清除碎片。設計與混凝土飾面相容，能夠收集大塊碎片，同時無縫融入泳池地板。這些差異化的創新產品為我們的客戶增加價值並推動未來的成長。

We are investing in enhanced customer service and support, including new dedicated leadership and staffing, customer productivity tools, and training opportunities. During the quarter, we appointed a proven leader within Hayward to the newly created role of Vice President of Customer Experience, tasked with leading an industry-best customer care organization.

我們正在投資加強客戶服務和支持，包括新的專門領導層和人員配置、客戶生產力工具和培訓機會。在本季度，我們任命了海沃德內部一位久經考驗的領導者擔任新設立的客戶體驗副總裁一職，負責領導業界最佳的客戶服務組織。

We are also seeing increased adoption of our proprietary Omni Pro app, an innovative cloud-based productivity tool for trade professionals enabling real-time remote monitoring of a homeowner's pool and equipment configuration. As the industry becomes increasingly technology-oriented, we believe best-in-class support will be critical to further elevate the Hayward brand and drive customer intimacy, resulting in increased aftermarket conversion opportunities.

我們還看到我們專有的 Omni Pro 應用程式得到越來越多的採用，這是一種基於雲端的創新生產力工具，供貿易專業人士使用，可以即時遠端監控房主的泳池和設備配置。隨著產業變得越來越以技術為導向，我們相信一流的支援對於進一步提升 Hayward 品牌和提高客戶親密度至關重要，從而增加售後市場轉換機會。

Next, I'd like to provide a brief update on ChlorKing. We acquired the business in late June, and we're very pleased with its performance in the quarter. ChlorKing is a leader in commercial pool water sanitization and a great strategic fit with a strong financial profile, advancing our position in the attractive commercial pool market. We are already seeing the synergies of the integration with Hayward's existing commercial business. Our sales teams are actively leveraging each other's customer bases to win new projects, serving the demand for sustainable, cutting-edge water sanitization systems.

接下來，我想簡單介紹一下 ChlorKing 的最新情況。我們在六月下旬收購了該業務，我們對其本季的表現感到非常滿意。ChlorKing 是商業泳池水消毒的領導者，具有良好的策略契合度和雄厚的財務實力，提升了我們在極具吸引力的商業泳池市場中的地位。我們已經看到了與海沃德現有商業業務整合的協同效應。我們的銷售團隊正在積極利用彼此的客戶群來贏得新項目，滿足對永續、尖端水消毒系統的需求。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Eifion, who will discuss our financial results in more detail.

說到這裡，我想將電話轉給 Eifion，他將更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning.

謝謝你，凱文，早安。

I'll start on slide 7. All comparisons will be made on a year-over-year basis. As Kevin stated, we are pleased with our third-quarter financial performance. Consolidated net sales were in line with expectations for the quarter, and we delivered outstanding profitability in cash flow generation, enabling a further reduction in net leverage to less than 3 times.

我將從幻燈片 7 開始。所有比較都將逐年進行。正如凱文所說，我們對第三季的財務表現感到滿意。合併淨銷售額符合本季預期，我們在現金流產生方面實現了出色的獲利能力，使淨槓桿率進一步降至 3 倍以下。

Looking at the results in more detail, net sales for the third quarter increased 3% to $228 million. Net price realization of positive 6% was offset by 5% lower volumes. ChlorKing performed well in the first full quarter of ownership, contributing 3%.

更詳細地查看結果，第三季淨銷售額成長 3%，達到 2.28 億美元。淨價達到正 6%，但被銷量減少 5% 所抵銷。ChlorKing 在第一個完整季度的所有權中表現良好，貢獻了 3%。

Gross profit in the third quarter increased 7% to $113 million. Gross profit margin increased 190 basis points year over year to 49.7% despite a 70-basis-point dilutive impact of the ChlorKing purchase accounting. This is a strong result primarily driven by continuous improvement and efficiency gains in our manufacturing operations, notably in North America, and the benefit of normalized discounts and allowances compared to the prior year period.

第三季毛利成長7%，達到1.13億美元。儘管 ChlorKing 採購會計產生了 70 個基點的稀釋影響，但毛利率仍同比增長 190 個基點至 49.7%。這一強勁業績主要得益於我們製造業務（尤其是北美地區）的持續改進和效率提升，以及與去年同期相比正常化折扣和補貼的好處。

Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $51 million in the third quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 110 basis points to 22.5%. Our effective tax rate was 21% in the third quarter.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 成長 8%，達到 5,100 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 110 個基點，達到 22.5%。第三季我們的有效稅率為 21%。

Adjusted diluted EPS in the quarter increased 22% to $0.11.

本季調整後攤薄每股收益成長 22%，達到 0.11 美元。

Now, I'll discuss our reportable segments, beginning on slide 8. North America net sales for the third quarter increased 5% to $195 million, driven by favorable pricing and the ChlorKing acquisition. Net sales increased 5% in the US and 17% in Canada. We were encouraged to see increased orders and sales in the quarter in Canada despite the significant impact in that market due to economic conditions and financing costs. Gross profit margin increased 290 basis points to 52.3%. Adjusted segment income margin was a robust 30.5%.

現在，我將從投影片 8 開始討論我們的可報告部分。受優惠定價和 ChlorKing 收購的推動，第三季北美淨銷售額成長 5%，達到 1.95 億美元。美國淨銷售額成長 5%，加拿大淨銷售額成長 17%。儘管經濟狀況和融資成本對該市場產生了重大影響，但我們對加拿大本季的訂單和銷售額有所增加感到鼓舞。毛利率成長290個基點至52.3%。調整後的分部利潤率為 30.5%。

Turning to Europe and rest of world, net sales for the quarter decreased 7% to $33 million due to lower volumes, partially offset by favorable pricing. Net sales declined 4% in Europe and 11% in rest of world, as certain international markets continue to feel the impact of current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. Gross profit margin reduced to 34.4%, largely driven by lower volumes, a discreet inventory adjustment, and unfavorable mix. Adjusted segment income margin was 8.4%.

轉向歐洲和世界其他地區，由於銷售下降，本季淨銷售額下降 7%，至 3,300 萬美元，但部分被有利的定價所抵消。由於某些國際市場持續受到當前宏觀經濟和地緣政治狀況的影響，歐洲淨銷售額下降 4%，世界其他地區淨銷售額下降 11%。毛利率下降至 34.4%，主要是由於銷量下降、謹慎的庫存調整以及不利的產品組合。調整後分部利潤率為8.4%。

Turning to slide 9 for a review of our balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We are very pleased with the balance sheet improvement and strong cash flow performance in the quarter.

轉向幻燈片 9，回顧我們的資產負債表和現金流亮點。我們對本季資產負債表的改善和強勁的現金流表現感到非常滿意。

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved significantly to 2.8 times, compared to 3.9 times a year ago and 3.1 times at the end of the second quarter. Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was $388 million, including cash and equivalents of $274 million, plus availability under our credit facilities of $114 million.

淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率大幅提高至 2.8 倍，而去年同期為 3.9 倍，第二季末為 3.1 倍。本季末的流動資金總額為 3.88 億美元，其中包括 2.74 億美元的現金及等價物，加上我們信貸安排下的可用資金 1.14 億美元。

We have no near-term maturities on our debt. The term debt matures in 2028, and the undrawn ABL matures in 2026. This attractive maturity schedule provides financial flexibility as we execute our strategic plans.

我們的債務沒有近期到期的情況。定期債務將於 2028 年到期，未提取的 ABL 將於 2026 年到期。這個有吸引力的到期時間表為我們執行戰略計劃提供了財務靈活性。

Our bond rate benefits from the $600 million of debt currently tied to fixed interest rate swap agreements, maturing in 2025 through 2027, limiting our cash interest rate on our term facilities to 6.2% in the third quarter. Our average interest rate earned on global cash deposits for the quarter was 4.7%.

我們的債券利率受益於目前與固定利率掉期協議掛鉤的 6 億美元債務，這些債務將於 2025 年至 2027 年到期，從而將我們第三季定期融資的現金利率限制在 6.2%。本季我們全球現金存款的平均利率為 4.7%。

The business has attractive free cash flow generation attributes and seasonal strength in the second and third quarters related to timing of payment collection of early buy receivables. Year-to-date cash flow from operations was $276 million, a 27% increase compared to the prior year period, reflecting continuous improvement in working capital management. Total working capital declined 17% in the quarter, largely as a consequence of reduced receivables.

該業務具有有吸引力的自由現金流產生屬性，並且在第二季和第三季具有與早期購買應收帳款的付款時間相關的季節性優勢。年初至今，營運現金流為 2.76 億美元，較上年同期成長 27%，反映出營運資金管理的持續改善。本季總營運資本下降 17%，主要原因是應收帳款減少。

Year-to-date CapEx of $18 million was below the prior year period due to project timing, resulting in a year-to-date increase in free cash flow of 34% to $258 million. We continue to expect free cash flow conversion of greater than 100% of net income and expect full-year 2024 free cash flow of approximately $160 million.

由於專案時間安排，年初至今的資本支出為 1,800 萬美元，低於去年同期，導致年初至今的自由現金流增加 34%，達到 2.58 億美元。我們仍然預計自由現金流將超過淨利潤的 100%，並預計 2024 年全年自由現金流約為 1.6 億美元。

Turning now to capital allocation on slide 10. As we've highlighted before, we maintain a disciplined financial policy and take a balanced approach, emphasizing strategic growth investments and shareholder returns while maintaining prudent financial leverage. In the near term, we are prioritizing organic and inorganic growth investments and debt repayment. We continue to consider other strategic acquisition opportunities to complement our product offering, geographic footprint, and commercial relationships, in addition to opportunistic share repurchases.

現在轉向投影片 10 上的資本配置。正如我們先前所強調的，我們維持嚴格的財務政策並採取平衡的方法，強調策略性成長投資和股東回報，同時保持審慎的財務槓桿。短期內，我們將優先考慮有機和無機成長投資以及債務償還。除了機會性股票回購之外，我們還將繼續考慮其他策略性收購機會，以補充我們的產品供應、地理足跡和商業關係。

Turning now to slide 11 for the outlook. We are refining our full-year guidance ranges, raising the lower ends. For the full year 2024, we now expect net sales to increase approximately 3% to 5% to $1.02 billion to $1.04 billion, compared to our prior guidance of $1.01 billion to $1.04 billion. We now expect adjusted EBITDA to increase approximately 5% to 9% to $260 million to $270 million, compared to our prior guidance of $255 million to $270 million. We anticipate full-year free cash flow of approximately $160 million. We expect full-year net interest expense of approximately $63 million and CapEx spending of $25 million. We also expect an effective tax rate of approximately 25% for the remainder of the year.

現在轉到幻燈片 11 來了解前景。我們正在完善全年指導範圍，提高下限。對於 2024 年全年，我們目前預計淨銷售額將成長約 3% 至 5%，達到 10.2 億美元至 10.4 億美元，而我們先前的指引為 10.1 億美元至 10.4 億美元。我們現在預計調整後的 EBITDA 將成長約 5% 至 9%，達到 2.6 億至 2.7 億美元，而我們先前的指引為 2.55 億至 2.7 億美元。我們預計全年自由現金流約為 1.6 億美元。我們預計全年淨利息支出約為 6,300 萬美元，資本支出為 2,500 萬美元。我們也預計今年剩餘時間的有效稅率約為 25%。

And looking out beyond 2024, we remain positive about the long-term health and growth profile of the pool industry, particularly the strength of the aftermarket. We are confident in our ability to successfully execute our strategic growth plans.

展望 2024 年以後，我們對泳池產業的長期健康和成長狀況，尤其是售後市場的實力仍然持樂觀態度。我們對成功執行策略性成長計劃的能力充滿信心。

And with that, I'm going to turn it back to Kevin.

說到這裡，我要把它轉回給凱文。

Thanks, Eifion.

謝謝，艾菲昂。

I'll pick back up on slide 12. Before we close, let me reiterate the key takeaways from today's presentation. We delivered third-quarter results consistent with expectations and refined our guidance range for the year, raising the low ends. Our team continues to execute, delivering strong gross margins and cash flow, allowing us to fund our growth strategies and delever the balance sheet.

我將在幻燈片 12 上繼續。在結束之前，讓我重申一下今天演講的要點。我們交付的第三季業績符合預期，並完善了今年的指導範圍，提高了低階。我們的團隊繼續執行，提供強勁的毛利率和現金流，使我們能夠為我們的成長策略提供資金並降低資產負債表的槓桿率。

We are investing in exciting new product innovations, commercial programs, and service offerings to better support our customers and improve the pool ownership experience. I am confident that we have the right strategy and talent in place to drive compelling financial results and shareholder value creation.

我們正在投資令人興奮的新產品創新、商業計劃和服務產品，以更好地支援我們的客戶並改善礦池所有權體驗。我相信我們擁有正確的策略和人才來推動令人矚目的財務表現和股東價值創造。

With that, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

這樣，我們現在就可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Carter, Stifel.

（操作員說明）Andrew Carter，Stifel。

Hey, thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask about kind of the gross margin, specifically the differential between the North American business and Europe. How much of that is structural? How much of that is improving performance? And then as you think about growth in a more normalized world where the North America -- I'm sorry, Europe, rest of world segment would outperform the base business, does that represent a dragged margin? Or does the margin -- or will the overall improvements within that segment continue to drive consolidated gross margin higher? Thanks.

嘿，謝謝你。早安.我想問毛利率，特別是北美業務和歐洲業務的差異。其中有多少是結構性的？其中有多少是在提高性能？然後，當你考慮在一個更正常化的世界中的成長時，北美——對不起，歐洲，世界其他地區的業務將超越基本業務，這是否意味著利潤率受到拖累？或者該細分市場的利潤率或整體改善是否會繼續推動綜合毛利率更高？謝謝。

Morning, Andrew. Yeah. I mean, overall, we were extremely delighted with the margins continuing to open up here in third quarter. I think it was the result of a number of things. Namely, a couple quarters back, we indicated that we had finally gotten the price cost neutrality, and we continue to see that.

早安，安德魯。是的。我的意思是，總的來說，我們對第三季的利潤率繼續擴大感到非常高興。我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。也就是說，幾個季度前，我們表示我們終於實現了價格成本中性，我們將繼續看到這一點。

From a price realization standpoint in the quarter, we had some great price in the quarter, driven partly by the fact that we had more normal discounts and allowances in third quarter on a year-over-year basis, as well as favorable mix, both product as well as regionally, with North America, obviously, seeing better volume than in Europe and rest of world.

從本季價格實現的角度來看，我們在本季度取得了一些不錯的價格，部分原因是我們在第三季度同比有更多的正常折扣和津貼，以及有利的組合，兩者從產品和區域來看，北美的銷量顯然比歐洲和世界其他地區好。

I probably shouldn't leave it to last because it's really our core culture is just around kaizen events, continuous improvement and lean. They may not be -- they may not grab the headlines or be all that sexy, but every week inside our facilities, we're doing gimbal walks and we're identifying inefficiencies and waste. And we continue to drive that out of the organization.

我可能不應該把它留到最後，因為我們的核心文化其實就是圍繞著改善活動、持續改善和精實。他們可能不會——他們可能不會成為頭條新聞，也不會那麼性感，但每週在我們的設施內，我們都會進行萬向節行走，並發現效率低下和浪費的情況。我們將繼續將其從組織中剔除。

As for some of the difference between North America and Europe, rest of world, we continue to battle some macroeconomic challenges in Europe specifically. And then in a strong export market, specifically the Middle East, there's obviously some geopolitical circumstances that continue to impact business.

至於北美和歐洲以及世界其他地區之間的一些差異，我們將繼續應對歐洲的一些宏觀經濟挑戰。然後，在強勁的出口市場，特別是中東，顯然存在一些地緣政治環境繼續影響業務。

We also -- I'll ask Eifion to go a little deeper on this in a moment, but we also saw a relatively modest discrete inventory adjustment in the ERW segment within the quarter. But we are investing. This is the core growth region for us. And we feel really good about many of the things that we're accomplishing over in Europe, rest of world, namely some great new leaders in high impact roles over there.

我們也—我會要求 Eifion 稍後更深入地討論這一點，但我們也看到本季 ERW 領域相對溫和的離散庫存調整。但我們正在投資。這是我們的核心成長區域。我們對我們在歐洲和世界其他地區所取得的許多成就感到非常滿意，即那裡有一些擔任高影響力角色的偉大新領導人。

We've added to the bench strength. As you know, we have consolidated our manufacturing footprint into a Barcelona location. And we're really turning up the focus on new product introduction and technology development by recently naming one global leader overall product development and technology.

我們增加了板凳力量。如您所知，我們已將製造基地整合到巴塞隆納。透過最近任命一位全球領先的產品開發和技術領導者，我們確實將重點放在了新產品的推出和技術開發上。

So lots going on. There is some difference, obviously, between North America and Europe, rest of world. But we believe and we know that the investments and the process of improvements that we're undertaking will ultimately start to bring those margins back in line with each other.

發生了很多事情。顯然，北美和歐洲以及世界其他地區之間存在一些差異。但我們相信並且我們知道我們正在進行的投資和改進過程最終將開始使這些利潤率恢復一致。

Yeah. And just to follow on from Kevin, as you know, we relocated our manufacturing lines from just outside Madrid to Barcelona in the early part of this year during Q3. We counted most of the sites across Spain, the largest sites across Spain, which resulted in a small net inventory adjustment. Overall, approximately 30% impact diluted total Hayward margin. But it allows us to have a clean slate following that relocation of production lines as we step into Q4.

是的。如你所知，為了遵循凱文的說法，我們在今年第三季的早些時候將生產線從馬德里郊外搬到了巴塞隆納。我們統計了西班牙境內的大部分站點，即西班牙境內最大的站點，這導致了小幅的淨庫存調整。總體而言，約 30% 影響稀釋後的海沃德總利潤率。但隨著我們進入第四季度，生產線搬遷後，它使我們能夠重新開始。

Got it. And then the second question, looking at the pricing in North America this quarter, the plus 6%, were there any anomalies in there similar to last year that was kind of a headwind? Was it a catch-up from last year? And obviously, with the increases of what you're doing, I wouldn't expect it -- wouldn't expect pricing in any one quarter or at least annualized to be more than the 3% to 4%, or just help us out with kind of any expected variances we might see. Thanks.

知道了。然後是第二個問題，看看本季北美的定價，上漲了 6%，是否有與去年類似的異常情況，這有點逆風？是去年的追趕嗎？顯然，隨著你所做的事情的增加，我不會期望它 - 不會期望任何一個季度的定價或至少年化定價會超過 3% 到 4%，或者只是幫助我們擺脫困境我們可能會看到任何預期的差異。謝謝。

Yes, I'll break down the 6%. It's basically our three contributing benefits. One is the year-over-year price increase that was put in at the beginning of the seasonal year for '24. So that was back in October of '23. So you get a year-over-year benefit from that, which approximately 3% across the entirety of Hayward on the gross price list.

是的，我將分解 6%。這基本上是我們的三個貢獻福利。其中之一是 24 年季節年初提出的年比價格上漲。那是在 23 年 10 月。因此，你可以從中獲得同比收益，整個海沃德的總價約佔 3%。

Secondly, we had a benefit of more normalized discounts and allowances. As you know, last year, we had an end-of-year allowance charge, which was comparably higher than the prior year. This year, we have normalized discounts and allowances.

其次，我們受惠於更標準化的折扣和補貼。大家知道，去年我們的年終津貼費用比去年還要高。今年，我們將折扣和補貼常態化。

And then thirdly, we did announce a price increase for the '25 season, and that went into effect in the early part of September. So we've got a little bit of benefit in the last couple of weeks in September from that particular price increase.

第三，我們確實宣布了 25 季的價格上漲，並於 9 月初生效。因此，我們在 9 月的最後幾週從這次特別的價格上漲中獲得了一些好處。

Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeff Hammond，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hey. Good morning, guys. So just to close the loop on rest of world, so you had the one-time inventory adjustment. So how should we think about that business margin-wise into the fourth quarter of next year? And maybe just speak to underlying stability or signs of stabilization in demand there.

嘿。早安，夥計們。因此，為了關閉世界其他地區的循環，您可以進行一次性庫存調整。那我們該如何考慮明年第四季的業務利潤率呢？也許只是談論那裡需求的潛在穩定性或穩定跡象。

Yeah, we certainly expect a step-up in margin in Q4. That's reflected in our guidance for the year. It won't be to the level that we'd like it longer term, but it will certainly be an improvement over the third quarter and travel probably close to the average for the full year to date through Q3. We have ambition, obviously, to improve that margin now above 40% in the near term. Near term defined is over the next several years.

是的，我們當然預計第四季的利潤率會有所上升。這反映在我們今年的指導上。從長遠來看，它不會達到我們希望的水平，但肯定會比第三季度有所改善，並且旅行可能接近第三季度迄今為止的全年平均水平。顯然，我們有雄心壯志在短期內將這一利潤率提高到 40% 以上。近期的定義是未來幾年。

I would additionally say, Jeff, that during the third quarter, we had a lower mix of what we call rest of world business, which also tends to have a higher margin. So it's a little bit of a dilutive mix effect negatively affecting Q3. But we remain very positive about what we're doing in Spain. We're doing a lot at the supply chain level to improve our manufacturing base, our distribution and logistics, go-to-market cost base there.

傑夫，我還想說，在第三季度，我們所謂的世界其他地區業務的組合較低，而這些業務的利潤率往往也較高。因此，這有點稀釋混合效應，對第三季產生了負面影響。但我們對我們在西班牙所做的事情仍然非常樂觀。我們在供應鏈層面做了很多工作，以改善我們的製造基地、分銷和物流、上市成本基礎。

So we do believe we have a runway here to improve margin over the near term to get above that 40% level. It won't necessarily be in the next year, but we have a pathway.

因此，我們確實相信我們有一條跑道可以在短期內提高利潤率，使其超過 40% 的水平。不一定是明年，但我們有一條途徑。

Okay. And then clearly, I think, break-fix has been pretty stable, pretty choppy on the new remodel. Just any kind of early framing on how you're thinking about the market into 2025? And maybe you can just, within that, touch about -- touch on any kind of near-term negative hurricane impact or positive impact into '25.

好的。然後很明顯，我認為，故障修復非常穩定，但在新的改造中卻相當不穩定。您對 2025 年市場的看法有什麼早期框架嗎？也許您可以在此範圍內談談颶風對 25 年的任何近期負面影響或積極影響。

Yeah, I'll touch on the last half of the question first. I mean, obviously, it's a terrible situation, as I mentioned in my opening remarks there. And we're really just focused, however we can, on serving our channel partners and end customers, helping them get their lives back in order.

是的，我先談談問題的後半部。我的意思是，顯然，正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，這是一個可怕的情況。我們確實只是盡我們所能地專注於為我們的通路合作夥伴和最終客戶提供服務，幫助他們恢復正常生活。

We have seen some incremental demand from the channel and some of the impact in areas as they, early on, help to recover and rebuild. I think we'll see this in waves, Jeff. I think initially, there's some triaging that takes place to really stabilize the water, treat the water, and get it circulating again if the pump isn't working. And then there may be more substantial repairs later on to other equipment that may have been affected by the weather.

我們已經看到該管道的一些增量需求以及對早期有助於恢復和重建的地區的一些影響。我想我們會看到這一波浪潮，傑夫。我認為最初，會進行一些分類來真正穩定水，處理水，並在泵不工作時使其再次循環。隨後可能會對其他可能受到天氣影響的設備進行更大規模的維修。

We actually have informed all of our channel partners with a special code that anything that is for disaster relief goes to the top of the list, front of the line. And we're filling those orders highest priority in our order flow.

實際上，我們已經透過特殊程式碼通知所有管道合作夥伴，任何用於救災的內容都會排在清單的頂部、最前面。我們將在訂單流中以最高優先順序履行這些訂單。

Second half of the question, yeah, the aftermarket continues to be very resilient, as you've heard us say throughout the year. And the year has played out generally like we called early on with our initial guide, where we were saying the more discretionary aspects of the market, which we call new construction, and more substantial repair, remodel, are really what's being affected.

問題的後半部分，是的，正如您全年聽到我們所說的那樣，售後市場仍然非常有彈性。今年的情況總體上就像我們在最初的指南中所說的那樣，我們在其中所說的市場中更自由的方面，我們稱之為新建，以及更大規模的維修、改造，確實受到了影響。

We called for about down 15% in North America and more like 25% in international markets around those discretionary. I think that's within the range of what we've seen play out through three quarters and, unfortunately, what we're going to see continue into Q4. So we're very interested in seeing what future moves the Fed is willing to make based on data they're digesting. It was great to see the initial 50-bp cut a little over a month ago now, but we need more cuts, I think, before the macro environment for our industry anyway, we'll start to be more optimistic.

我們呼籲北美市場的價格下降 15% 左右，國際市場的價格則下降 25% 左右。我認為這在我們三個季度所看到的範圍內，不幸的是，我們將看到這種情況持續到第四季度。因此，我們非常有興趣了解聯準會未來願意根據他們正在消化的數據採取哪些措施。很高興看到一個多月前首次降息 50 個基點，但我認為，我們需要更多降息，無論如何，在我們行業的宏觀環境出現之前，我們將開始更加樂觀。

Okay. Thanks so much, guys.

好的。非常感謝，夥計們。

Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

薩雷·博羅迪茨基，傑弗里斯。

Good morning. This is James on for Saree. Thanks for taking questions. I wanted to talk about early buy. I think you mentioned that early buy kind of progressed as expected. So can you kind of elaborate on what you anticipated for early buy compared to last year? And how much coverage are you getting from early buy in 2025?

早安.這是詹姆斯在紗麗上的表演。感謝您提出問題。我想談談早期購買。我想你提到早期購買的進展符合預期。那麼您能否詳細說明一下與去年相比，您對提前購買的預期是什麼？2025 年提前購買能獲得多少保障？

Yeah. As I said, it's progressing sort of as we laid out. We're seeing very solid participation from our channel partners. The timing of it, it's not yet complete in any region. So we're not able to really give anything final on this as it's nearing completion in North America and it's underway in Europe.

是的。正如我所說，事情正在按照我們的計劃進行。我們看到通路夥伴的積極參與。就其時間表而言，任何地區都尚未完成。因此，我們無法真正給出任何最終結果，因為它在北美已接近完成，而在歐洲正在進行中。

But we're seeing nice participation, I'd say, sort of directionally as we saw last year was really what our expectation was. And we're seeing trending towards that. As you know, some of that gets shipped in the fourth quarter; that's normal for us. That's what drives some of the seasonally higher shipments in Q4 as we prepare the channel for the upcoming season. But we would need a couple more weeks for us to know ultimately how early buy concludes, but we're very pleased with how it's progressed today.

但我想說，我們看到了很好的參與，就像我們去年看到的那樣，這確實是我們的期望。我們看到了這種趨勢。如您所知，其中一些在第四季度發貨；另一些則在第四季度發貨。這對我們來說很正常。當我們為即將到來的季節準備通路時，這就是推動第四季出貨量季節性增加的原因。但我們還需要幾週的時間才能知道早期購買最終如何結束，但我們對今天的進展感到非常滿意。

James, I know you are aware of this, but for the rest of the audience, let me just define what early buy is by laying out the program. It's -- maybe in another industry would be called winter stocking, but it's the method our industry has for stocking up for the next season. We really view it as a win-win for both the channel, as well as Hayward, by offering a discount to the announced price increase that Eifion just mentioned that it's really in concert with the early buy program. We offer payment terms out into the spring of next year.

詹姆斯，我知道你知道這一點，但對於其他觀眾，讓我透過列出程式來定義什麼是早期購買。也許在另一個行業會被稱為冬季備貨，但這是我們行業為下一季備貨的方法。我們確實認為這對通路和海沃德來說都是雙贏，透過為 Eifion 剛剛提到的宣布的價格上漲提供折扣，這確實與早期購買計劃相一致。我們提供的付款期限為明年春季。

It allows us to level load our facilities in a seasonally lower -- well, in a cooler time of year where folks aren't in their pools using them as much and we get to ship at our discretion into the channel. So that's the structure of the program for someone who may not have known what early buy was, but I would say it's progressing very well and to our expectations.

它使我們能夠在季節性較低的情況下平衡我們的設施負載——嗯，在一年中較涼爽的時間，人們不會在游泳池中使用它們那麼多，我們可以自行決定將其運送到渠道中。對於那些可能不知道早期購買是什麼的人來說，這就是該計劃的結構，但我想說它進展得非常好並且符合我們的預期。

Got it. Great. And as a follow-up, I know it is still kind of early on to talk about kind of 2025, but what are you kind of hearing from like dealers and builders about their backlog and kind of their outlook on kind of new construction and remodeling?

知道了。偉大的。作為後續行動，我知道現在談論 2025 年還為時過早，但是您從經銷商和建築商那裡聽到了什麼關於他們的積壓訂單以及他們對新建和改建的看法？

Yeah, I'm not necessarily hearing that leads are picking up. I think, as I said a moment ago, that there is some general optimism that if additional cuts -- interest rate cuts are coming, that that's going to spark demand, as what we've really seen this year is more the financing dependent portion of the market is most affected. So if there are additional cuts coming, I think that that's absolutely going to give us some tailwind as an industry.

是的，我不一定聽到線索正在增加。我認為，正如我剛才所說，人們普遍樂觀地認為，如果進一步削減利率，這將刺激需求，因為我們今年真正看到的是更多依賴融資的部分市場受影響最大。因此，如果未來有進一步的削減，我認為這絕對會為我們這個行業帶來一些順風。

It's important -- just to point out, I don't think it's immediate, though. I think we need to see more substantial cuts, and then that has to work through the system from securing the financing to deciding on who's going to build the pool and finalizing your design and pulling the permit. So there is some lead up from once the interest rate cuts occur. And I think that's also really renovation and remodel dependent, as well as quite a bit of that activity is financing dependent.

這很重要——只是想指出，但我認為這不會立即發生。我認為我們需要看到更大幅度的削減，然後這必須透過整個系統來實現，從獲得融資到決定誰將建造泳池，最後確定設計並取消許可。因此，一旦降息，就會有一些先兆。我認為這也確實依賴翻新和改造，而且其中相當一部分活動依賴融資。

But I just like to finish by saying, again, 50% plus of our revenue is tied to this very resilient, largely non-discretionary aftermarket break fix. So obviously, new construction and large-scale remodel are important to us and to the whole industry. But the aftermarket has remained very resilient through these challenging macro times that we've had the last couple of years.

但最後我想再說一遍，我們 50% 以上的收入都與這種非常有彈性、很大程度上是非任意的售後市場故障修復息息相關。顯然，新建和大規模改造對我們和整個產業都很重要。但在過去幾年充滿挑戰的宏觀時期，售後市場仍保持著強烈的彈性。

Great. Thanks for taking the questions.

偉大的。感謝您提出問題。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞恩·梅克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Hey, guys. Nice quarter. I wanted to start off on the price outlook. I think you mentioned 3% to 5% price in the US for '25. That's a little bit above the 2% to 3% we're used to. My question is, how much of that increase is sort of your normal inflationary increase? And then how much is some of the strategic pricing that you're doing?

嘿，夥計們。不錯的季度。我想從價格前景開始。我想你提到 25 年美國的價格上漲了 3% 到 5%。這比我們習慣的 2% 到 3% 略高一些。我的問題是，這種成長有多少屬於正常的通膨成長？那麼你正在做的一些策略定價是多少？

Yeah. I would say it's -- we need the fourth quarter to really finalize what our inflation assumptions are. But from a commodity or material standpoint, we're saying kind of high 2%, closing in on 3% maybe, and labor salary wages, maybe a tick up from that. So holding price cost, we would need 3% or so pricing.

是的。我想說的是——我們需要第四季才能真正確定我們的通膨假設。但從商品或材料的角度來看，我們說的是 2% 的高水平，可能接近 3%，而勞動力工資可能會在此基礎上有所上升。因此，持有價格成本，我們需要 3% 左右的定價。

And then I really think you could look to that delta where some SKUs or product categories were priced higher than that around some of this value pricing taken -- taking a hard look at where we believe the product is providing greater payback or value than what the historic price has been. So that's really how I lay it out for you, Ryan. The first three or so is to hold price cost neutrality and then some upside based upon some of the more strategic value pricing initiatives that are that our team is undertaking.

然後，我真的認為您可以關註一些 SKU 或產品類別的定價高於部分價值定價的增量 - 仔細研究我們認為該產品在哪些方面提供了比產品更高的回報或價值。這就是我為你安排的，瑞安。前三個左右是保持價格成本中性，然後是基於我們團隊正在採取的一些更具策略價值的定價措施的一些上行空間。

Got it. That's helpful. And do you expect to finish the strategic pricing in 2025?

知道了。這很有幫助。您預計2025年完成策略定價嗎？

No, I don't. I mean, it's a lot of heavy lifting is going on in the maybe early innings of this. But I'm not sure, from a value pricing standpoint, it's ever complete because we'll constantly be bringing some new technology to bear.

不，我不。我的意思是，在這可能的早期階段，有很多繁重的工作正在進行。但從價值定價的角度來看，我不確定它是否已經完成，因為我們將不斷引入一些新技術。

And I think what goes hand in hand with this is some of the SKU rationalization activities as we retire some either lower technology or redundant products. I think that that provides some value pricing opportunities. So one really goes with the other. And I think maybe the most impact is in some of the early innings as our organization focuses on that. But I'm not sure I would ever say the curtain drops on that.

我認為與此相關的是一些 SKU 合理化活動，因為我們淘汰了一些技術較低或冗餘的產品。我認為這提供了一些價值定價機會。所以一個人確實與另一個人在一起。我認為最大的影響可能是在早期的一些局中，因為我們的組織專注於這一點。但我不確定我是否會說這件事就此結束。

Okay, good. And then my second question is on gross margins. They're up about 500 basis points since '22 and sales are down. And so my question is, if we get a recovery scenario and you've got strategic pricing, is there still 100, 200 basis points of upside to gross margins if I look out the next two, three years?

好的，很好。我的第二個問題是關於毛利率。自 22 年以來，價格上漲了約 500 個基點，但銷售額卻下降了。所以我的問題是，如果我們看到復甦情景並且制定了策略定價，那麼如果我展望未來兩三年，毛利率是否仍有 100、200 個基點的上升空間？

Hi, Ryan. Yes, certainly, we are notably up on '22. Let's not forget that in '22, you're battling the inflation monster, which we kind of slay towards the end of '22 and into '23. So I'm not quite sure '22 was a representative example of the underlying margin in the business, given that inflation period.

嗨，瑞安。是的，當然，我們在'22'上明顯領先。我們不要忘記，在 22 年，你正在與通貨膨脹怪物作鬥爭，我們在 22 年底和 23 年間消滅了它。因此，考慮到通貨膨脹時期，我不太確定 22 年是否是該業務基礎利潤的代表性例子。

But where we're at today, we feel pretty good about. And we've talked about the opportunities we have to continue to drive margin enhancement across the business. We will continue to execute on those four pillars, which I've discussed before, continue to leverage the top line growth. We've demonstrated we can grow our business within our four walls of manufacturing today, so we should continue to get leverage as we grow volume productivity actions throughout the business.

但我們今天所處的位置，我們感覺很好。我們已經討論了我們必須繼續推動整個業務利潤率提高的機會。我們將繼續執行我之前討論過的這四大支柱，並繼續利用收入成長。我們已經證明，我們可以在今天的製造四面牆內發展我們的業務，因此，隨著我們在整個企業中提高批量生產力行動，我們應該繼續獲得影響力。

We have a return to our core practices of lean manufacturing, and those are yielding fantastic results in North America. And we expect the same in Europe as we drive common systems across our group progressively over the next 18 months. We've demonstrated price costs we can handle, and that's reflected now in a in the margin.

我們回歸了精益製造的核心實踐，這些實踐在北美取得了令人矚目的成果。我們預計歐洲也會出現同樣的情況，因為我們將在未來 18 個月內逐步在整個集團內推動通用系統。我們已經證明了我們可以處理的價格成本，這現在反映在利潤中。

And then, as Kevin just mentioned, we're going to continue to introduce high-value, high-margin new products and support the customer with ever-increasing investment. Also, as Kevin mentioned, so they're educated on that new technology and understand it and therefore be able to extract the appropriate margin on those products.

然後，正如凱文剛才提到的，我們將繼續推出高價值、高利潤的新產品，並透過不斷增加的投資來支持客戶。此外，正如凱文所提到的，他們接受了新技術的教育並了解它，因此能夠從這些產品中提取適當的利潤。

So I'm not going to get really definitive on 2025. I think we have these opportunities to improve, and we'll continue to execute on those opportunities.

所以我不會對 2025 年給予真正的確定。我認為我們有這些改進的機會，我們將繼續利用這些機會。

Perfect. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

完美的。謝謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家早安。

So when I look at your top line guide for fourth quarter, all right, $20 million give or take kind of range, but it's the difference between low single digits and I think maybe 10% organic in the fourth quarter. So fairly wide range there. So maybe could you just define what's kind of the drivers of the low end and the high end of that range? And I don't know if you want to talk about where you feel more comfortable, but would it be the early buy variability or other factors at play there?

因此，當我查看第四季度的營收指南時，好吧，2000 萬美元的變動範圍很大，但這是低個位數之間的差異，我認為第四季度的有機收入可能為10% 。所以範圍相當廣。那麼，也許您可以定義一下該範圍的低端和高端驅動器是什麼樣的？我不知道你是否想談談你在哪裡感覺更舒服，但這是否是早期購買的可變性或其他因素在起作用？

And then just on the early buy specifically, is there any correlation between sort of early buy strength and what that tells us about the season coming up? I'm sure there is, but any thoughts on what you're kind of reading into the demand environment for next year?

然後，特別是在早期購買方面，早期購買強度與我們對即將到來的季節的了解之間是否存在任何相關性？我確信有，但是您對明年的需求環境有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah. The latter part of the question, I think the early buy activity is really -- I think of it in two ways, Nigel. Firstly would be maybe what the inventory position in the channel is as the season ends. I think that that really helps define maybe what the appetite is on behalf of the channel to buy forward, so to speak.

是的。問題的後一部分，我認為早期的購買活動確實是——我從兩個方面來考慮，奈傑爾。首先可能是季節結束時渠道中的庫存狀況。我認為這確實有助於定義代表遠期購買管道的興趣，可以這麼說。

But this isn't just OEM with the channel. What the channel's doing is while the early buy program is published in this window here is they're out having conversations with the dealers. And the terms and some of the pricing and the discounts that we offer are actually now being discussed with the dealers, the servicers, the builders, the renovators. So again, as that comes back to us as the OEM, I think that that does give some indication for what the overall attitude or what the level of optimism is down in the dealer base, working in the backyard day in and day out.

但這不僅僅是 OEM 與頻道。該頻道所做的是，當早期購買計劃在此視窗中發佈時，他們正在與經銷商進行對話。我們提供的條款以及一些定價和折扣實際上正在與經銷商、服務商、建築商、裝修商進行討論。再次強調，當我們作為原始設備製造商時，我認為這確實表明了日復一日在後院工作的經銷商群體的整體態度或樂觀程度的下降。

So based upon those two factors, we're seeing a pretty solid response from early buy. And we're not ready to guide on 2025 yet by any means. But this is a nice building block heading in to 2025 for us.

因此，基於這兩個因素，我們看到早期購買的反應相當強勁。無論如何，我們還沒有準備好為 2025 年提供指導。但這對我們來說是邁向 2025 年的一個很好的基石。

There was another part of the question, Nigel. I'm sorry that I --

奈傑爾，問題還有另一部分。很抱歉我--

Yeah. I'm just wondering, the 4Q range, we've got a kind of a -- I don't know, 3%, 10% range on the fourth quarter in that kind of zone. So just wondering what the variability is.

是的。我只是想知道，第四季的範圍，我們有一種——我不知道，第四季在這種區域的 3%、10% 的範圍。所以只是想知道變異性是什麼。

Yeah. Hi, Nigel. I mean, we've got, what, 3% to 5% as the full-year range. Now, as we head into the final quarter, call that a 2%, $20 million type number that is really centric around how the in-season orders flow through the balance of the year. Last year, we had a pretty good result in that category.

是的。嗨，奈傑爾。我的意思是，我們的全年範圍是 3% 到 5%。現在，當我們進入最後一個季度時，我們稱其為 2%，即 2000 萬美元這樣的數字，它實際上以季節性訂單如何流過全年剩餘時間為中心。去年，我們在該類別中取得了不錯的成績。

We know what the early buy is stacking up to look like, and so we feel pretty comfortable we've got line of sight around early buy. But the in-season orders remain the item that we continue to look at carefully. And that really is the underlying variance that you see in Q4.

我們知道早期購買的情況會是什麼樣子，因此我們對早期購買的視線感到非常滿意。但反季節訂單仍然是我們繼續仔細關注的項目。這確實是您在第四季度看到的潛在差異。

Maybe a little bit more muted performance in Europe and rest of world versus North America reflected in our guidance, and that comes as a consequence of still some hesitation around the rest of world segment. We expect Europe to do okay in Q4.

我們的指導反映了歐洲和世界其他地區與北美的表現可能會更加溫和，這是由於世界其他地區仍然存在一些猶豫的結果。我們預計歐洲第四季表現良好。

If we look at North America in a bit more detail, we've had a good performance here today in Canada -- actually, a little bit better-than-expected result in Canada here today. So it'd be interesting to see how that business closes the year for their seasonal orders. They close down relatively rapidly as winter sets in. But it's just a little bit of caution here as we head into the fourth quarter around those in-season orders.

如果我們更詳細地觀察北美，我們今天在加拿大的表現很好——實際上，今天在加拿大的成績比預期要好一些。因此，看看該公司的季節性訂單如何結束這一年會很有趣。隨著冬天的到來，它們相對較快地關閉。但當我們進入第四季度時，圍繞這些當季訂單，這裡只是有點謹慎。

Okay. That's pretty helpful. And then, Eifion, just another crack at the gross margin question, whenever you have such great performance on gross margins in the absence of volumes, there's always questions about sustainability. I think what we're hearing here is that you feel comfortable that North American gross margin is sustainable; nothing unusual in that number. And I'm just wondering if maybe you could talk about the fixed versus variable components of COGS.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，Eifion，這只是毛利率問題的另一個破解，每當你在缺乏銷量的情況下獲得如此出色的毛利率表現時，總是會存在關於可持續性的問題。我認為我們在這裡聽到的是，您對北美毛利率是可持續的感到滿意；這個數字沒有什麼異常。我只是想知道您是否可以談談 COGS 的固定部分和可變部分。

Yes, we feel like the North American margin is sustainable. As I mentioned, we've got four areas that we continue to pursue for margin enhancement over the course of time. They've yielded good results over the last five years, maybe masked by the inflation battles. But coming through now and reflective in the margin, we'll continue to execute on those margin enhancers.

是的，我們認為北美的利潤率是可持續的。正如我所提到的，隨著時間的推移，我們在四個領域繼續追求利潤率的提高。他們在過去五年中取得了良好的成果，但可能被通貨膨脹的鬥爭所掩蓋。但從現在開始並反映在利潤率上，我們將繼續執行這些利潤率增強措施。

Nothing discrete in the quarter. I mean, we did call out. We had a dilutive impact from purchase accounting and a very small discrete inventory adjustment. But we extract margin to improve in Q4.

本季沒有什麼離散的事情。我的意思是，我們確實打電話了。採購會計和非常小的離散庫存調整對我們產生了稀釋影響。但我們第四季的利潤率有所提高。

Sorry, I missed the second part of your question, Nigel.

抱歉，我錯過了你問題的第二部分，奈傑爾。

Oh, the fixed versus variable component of COGS.

哦，銷貨成本的固定部分與可變部分。

Yes. Generally speaking, we do have a relatively low fixed component in our cost of goods sold. 65% to 70% of our COGS tends to be raw materials or purchased components, and then we have variable labor. And then the indirect labor and depreciation on the business, as well as the utilities and rent, is a much smaller proportion. Think of a number of around about 10% is what would be considered to be true fixed costs in the COGS profile.

是的。一般來說，我們的銷售成本中的固定部分確實相對較低。我們 65% 到 70% 的銷貨成本往往是原料或外購零件，然後我們就有可變的勞動力。然後，企業的間接勞動力和折舊，以及水電費和租金，所佔的比例要小得多。想想 COGS 概況中大約 10% 左右的數字被認為是真正的固定成本。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.

布萊恩李，高盛。

Hi. This is actually Nick Cash on for Brian Lee. Just wanted to dive in to SG&A real quick. As a percentage of revenue, it's been slightly higher than we've seen over the past few years. And you mentioned slightly higher salary costs driven by wage inflation and investments in growth through sales and increased professional services. Just trying to get a sense of how we should think about spending on sales and marketing going forward as you kind of balance a return to volume growth with profitability. Thank you.

你好。這其實是尼克卡許（Nick Cash）為布萊恩李（Brian Lee）代言。只是想快速了解 SG&A。從佔收入的百分比來看，它比我們過去幾年看到的略高。您提到工資上漲導致工資成本略有上升，以及透過銷售和增加專業服務進行成長投資。只是想了解一下，當你在銷售成長的回報與獲利能力之間取得平衡時，我們應該如何考慮未來的銷售和行銷支出。謝謝。

Yeah, sure. I won't get into how we think about it necessarily in '25. But generally speaking, yes, what we have seen over the course of the last couple of years is higher than historical average salary increases. When you think about professional service costs that support the business, legal services, consulting services, audits of practice services, all of those have increased in the last couple of years, more so they had previously. I think we're all feeling that in our cost base.

是的，當然。我不會討論 25 年我們如何看待它。但總的來說，是的，我們在過去幾年中看到的薪資增幅高於歷史平均薪資增幅。當你考慮支援業務、法律服務、諮詢服務、實踐服務審計的專業服務成本時，所有這些成本在過去幾年中都增加了，而且比以前增加得更多。我想我們在成本基礎上都感受到了這一點。

I think additionally, over the course of the last 18 months, 1.5 years, we've made some very discrete investments into our sales capabilities as we turn our attention to geographies where we've been historically underrepresented. And you have to make those investments before you see the return. So those have gone into this year. And additionally, we're making investments into our systems capabilities throughout the organization. And those investments have gone into 2024.

此外，我認為，在過去 18 個月、1.5 年的時間裡，我們對我們的銷售能力進行了一些非常離散的投資，因為我們將注意力轉向了我們歷來代表性不足的地區。在看到回報之前，您必須進行這些投資。這些都已經進入今年了。此外，我們正在對整個組織的系統功能進行投資。這些投資已持續到 2024 年。

We feel good about the cost base. We have ambition to continue to move the collective SG&A and RD&E cost base down into the lower 20s percentage of sales. We don't necessarily believe we'll achieve that next year, but that is the structural ambition we've set ourselves.

我們對成本基礎感覺良好。我們有雄心壯志繼續將 SG&A 和 RD&E 成本基數降低到銷售額的 20% 以下。我們不一定相信明年就能實現這個目標，但這就是我們為自己設定的結構性目標。

Now, that's super helpful. Thank you.

現在，這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅布‧韋特海默，Melius 研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. But just out of curiosity, I think you referenced in the premise data just an upshift or a mix shift, which is probably not surprising given higher income consumers might have more stability. Is that ever noticeable in your financials? I mean, do you see mix shifts with higher end pools affecting the total income segment? I'll start there. Thanks.

謝謝。早安.我的大部分問題都得到了解答。但出於好奇，我認為您在前提數據中提到的只是升檔或混合轉換，考慮到收入較高的消費者可能具有更高的穩定性，這可能並不奇怪。這在您的財務狀況中是否引人注目？我的意思是，您認為高端池的混合變化會影響總收入部分嗎？我將從這裡開始。謝謝。

Yeah, I'm not quite sure the mix shift comment that you're referencing. Certainly, there's been a mix shift geographically in our Europe and the rest of world segment.

是的，我不太確定您引用的混合班次評論。當然，歐洲和世界其他地區的地理分佈發生了混合變化。

Inside the product line, we're seeing a shift towards core product categories. Year to date, we're very pleased with increases in filtration, in heaters, in sanitization, suction cleaners. And as you'd expect, those items which have got more attachment to new construction -- in-floor systems, lighting and water features, and to a certain extent, new construction controls -- those have had a reduced mix in the year. But overall, we've had a dilutive impact from geographic mix, a positive impact from product mix.

在產品線內部，我們看到了向核心產品類別的轉變。今年迄今為止，我們對過濾、加熱器、消毒、吸塵器的改進感到非常滿意。正如您所期望的那樣，那些與新建築有更多聯繫的項目——地板系統、照明和水景，以及在一定程度上新建築控制——這些項目在今年的組合有所減少。但總體而言，地理組合對我們產生了稀釋性影響，而產品組合對我們產生了正面影響。

And then in terms of, I think, the latter part of your question, when you think about the different type of pools for servicing, certainly when you're dealing with the larger new builders, you're dealing with a much richer content per pool pad. Maybe you want to talk about that, Kevin?

然後，我認為，就您問題的後半部分而言，當您考慮不同類型的服務池時，當然，當您與更大的新建築商打交道時，您正在處理更豐富的內容泳池墊。也許你想談談這個，凱文？

Yeah, that's exactly right. The products that we see that are performing well, it's pretty much right down the fairway, Rob, that the ones that are really more core that are resilient around the aftermarket are performing well. And some of those products that have a high concentration around new building activity or full-scale remodel are not performing as well.

是的，完全正確。我們看到的表現良好的產品，羅布，那些真正更核心、在售後市場有彈性的產品表現良好。其中一些高度集中於新建築活動或全面改造的產品表現不佳。

But as we've said many times, and others have, the higher end is holding up better than the more entry-level. So the pools that are being built, we are seeing some of the features and the functionality being added to those around controls and automation and alternate sanitizers and in-floor systems and LED lights. So those are generally high-margin products for us. So we're anxious for some of the rate cuts to take hold and for that to start propping up new construction sales, although we're not sure when that's going to take hold just yet, Rob.

但正如我們和其他人多次說過的那樣，高端產品比入門級產品表現得更好。因此，在正在建造的泳池中，我們看到一些特性和功能被添加到控制、自動化、替代消毒劑、地板系統和 LED 燈周圍。所以這些對我們來說通常是高利潤產品。因此，我們渴望一些降息能夠落實，並開始支撐新建築的銷售，儘管我們還不確定這種情況何時會落實，羅布。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just to start, just a quick clarification on the pricing comment for '25, the 3% to 5% realization. Is that net or gross pricing?

你好。早安.感謝您提出我的問題。首先，快速澄清 25 年的定價評論，實現 3% 到 5%。這是淨價還是毛價？

So broadly speaking, it's net pricing. I mean, gross prices are moving up 3% to 5%. As long as the year-over-year discount percentages and allowances rebates remain the same, you'll have the same effect at the net pricing level.

從廣義上講，這是淨定價。我的意思是，總價格上漲了 3% 到 5%。只要同比折扣百分比和津貼回扣保持不變，您就會在淨定價水平上獲得相同的效果。

Okay, that's helpful. And then just in terms of -- can you just -- and I think you've probably been asked this before -- remind us of the potential tariff exposure that you have and then potentially what it means for sort of the competitive environment? So what's your direct exposure to potential tariffs, and then is there an opportunity versus some competition?

好的，這很有幫助。然後，您能否——我想您以前可能被問過這個問題——提醒我們您面臨的潛在關稅風險，以及這對競爭環境可能意味著什麼？那麼，您面臨的潛在關稅直接風險是多少？

Yeah. Generally speaking, our imported goods from tariff-impacted regions is around 10% to 15% of cost of goods sold, probably towards the lower end of that more recently. 85% of our manufactured goods are manufactured in our core regions, that being North America and Western Europe. So we have a progressively reduced exposure to the tariffs that have been instituted now for, what, six or seven years.

是的。一般來說，我們從受關稅影響地區進口的商品約為銷售成本的10%至15%，最近可能接近這個數字的下限。我們 85% 的製成品是在我們的核心地區製造的，即北美和西歐。因此，我們逐漸減少了關稅的風險，這些關稅已經實施了六、七年。

Okay. And then just on the -- stepping back and looking at new construction now that we've sort of had the vast majority of the pool season behind us for '24, can you just walk us through where we are on sort of number of pools that went in, you guys think, in '24 versus where it peaked in '22, I guess, or '21 and '22, and then the pre-COVID level? Just help us understand how much of this is lapping pull forward versus potential just macro headwinds. How do we think about where we are in that new construction cycle?

好的。然後，退後一步，看看新的建築，因為我們已經度過了 24 年泳池季節的大部分時間，您能帶我們了解一下我們的泳池數量嗎？高峰相比，我猜，或者是21 年和22 年，然後是新冠疫情之前的水平？只是幫助我們了解其中有多少是向前邁進的，而不是潛在的宏觀逆風。我們如何思考我們在新的建設週期中所處的位置？

Yeah. I don't have the data in front of me, but I think I'm correct in saying that the three years leading up to COVID, we were somewhere around 80,000 -- 75,000 to 85,000 or maybe high 70,000s to 85,000 per year in those years leading up to COVID. Obviously, 2020, 2021, those two years saw a meaningful step-up. Since 2022, we were, I think, 98,000, just shy of 100,000 pools that dropped to low 70,000s last year. And we believe that we're somewhere maybe best case 60,000-ish this year.

是的。我面前沒有數據，但我認為我的說法是正確的，在新冠疫情爆發之前的三年裡，我們每年大約有 80,000 人——75,000 人到 85,000 人，或者可能高達 70,000 人到 85,000 人。爆發前的那些年。顯然，2020 年、2021 年，這兩年出現了有意義的進步。我認為，自 2022 年以來，我們的池子數量為 98,000 個，略低於 100,000 個池子，而去年這個池子數量已降至 70,000 個。我們相信今年最好的情況可能是 60,000 左右。

There's some different numbers out there, but I think most coalesce around kind of a 60,000 number at this point, so call that 15% off of last year. I think that could be effective, frankly. This time of year, pools get built in Florida. They're in disaster recovery, big parts of that state. So I think that that could have a negative effect on the final number here in Q4 in that region. But that's what we've seen over the last -- the years leading up to COVID, what occurred in the height of COVID, and then maybe what's occurred in more of the challenging macroeconomic environment and higher interest rate environment since COVID.

那裡有一些不同的數字，但我認為目前大多數數字都在 60,000 左右，所以可以說比去年減少了 15%。坦白說，我認為這可能是有效的。每年的這個時候，佛羅裡達州都會建造游泳池。他們正處於災難復原階段，是該州的大部分地區。因此，我認為這可能會對該地區第四季的最終數字產生負面影響。但這就是我們過去所看到的——新冠疫情爆發前的幾年、新冠疫情最嚴重時期發生的情況，以及新冠疫情以來更具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境和更高利率環境中發生的情況。

Good. That's helpful. If I could just -- a very quick follow-up. Do you know -- what do you guys estimate the sell-through was in the third quarter?

好的。這很有幫助。如果我可以的話——非常快速的跟進。你們知道嗎——你們估計第三季的銷售量是多少？

Sorry, the sell-through in the third quarter?

抱歉，第三季的銷售量是多少？

Yes.

是的。

Yeah. So we don't -- we only have date for one specific reference point, and that's in the US, so any real dependency that we place on those numbers. But it was relatively flat on the sell-through in the third quarter. So that's a positive outcome for us in that one data reference point.

是的。所以我們沒有——我們只有一個特定參考點的日期，而且是在美國，所以我們對這些數字的任何真正依賴。但第三季的銷售量相對持平。因此，在這個數據參考點上，這對我們來說是一個正面的結果。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time, so I'd like to turn the floor back over to Kevin Holleran for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題，所以我想將發言權交還給凱文霍勒蘭 (Kevin Holleran) 作結束語。

Thank you, Jessie.

謝謝你，傑西。

In closing, I'd like to thank everyone for their interest in Hayward. Our business is very well positioned to navigate the near-term challenges and deliver value for all stakeholders in the years ahead. This wouldn't be possible without the hard work, dedication, and resilience of our employees and partners around the world.

最後，我要感謝大家對海沃德的興趣。我們的業務非常有能力應對近期挑戰，並在未來幾年為所有利害關係人創造價值。如果沒有我們世界各地的員工和合作夥伴的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和韌性，這是不可能實現的。

Please contact our team if you have any follow-up questions, and we look forward to talking to you again on the fourth-quarter earnings call.

如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡我們的團隊，我們期待在第四季財報電話會議上再次與您交談。

Thank you, Jessie. You can now end the call.

謝謝你，傑西。您現在可以結束通話。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，此時您可以斷開線路。