Hayward Holdings Inc (HAYW) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Hayward Holdings Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is [Danyal,] and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

歡迎來到 Hayward Holdings 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。我叫 [Danyal]，我將擔任今天電話會議的接線員。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在錄製此會議。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin Maczka, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Maczka, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Kevin Maczka。 Maczka 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We issued our fourth quarter 2022 earnings press release this morning, which has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website at investor.hayward.com. There, you can also find an earnings slide presentation that we will reference during this call. I'm joined today by Kevin Holleran, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Eifion Jones, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，早上好。我們今天上午發布了 2022 年第四季度收益新聞稿，該新聞稿已發佈在我們網站 investor.hayward.com 的投資者關係部分。在那裡，您還可以找到我們將在本次電話會議期間參考的收益幻燈片演示文稿。今天，總裁兼首席執行官 Kevin Holleran 加入了我的行列；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Eifion Jones。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, the company may make certain statements that are considered forward-looking in nature, including management's outlook for 2023 and future periods. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission that could cause actual results to differ materially. The company does not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，公司可能會做出某些被認為具有前瞻性的聲明，包括管理層對 2023 年和未來時期的展望。此類報表受各種風險和不確定因素的影響，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格文件中討論的風險和不確定因素，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果存在重大差異。公司不承擔任何更新此類前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additionally, during today's call, the company will discuss non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures discussed on this call to the comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and the appendix to the slide presentation.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，公司將討論非 GAAP 措施。在我們的收益發布和幻燈片演示文稿的附錄中可以找到本次電話會議討論的歷史非 GAAP 指標與可比較的 GAAP 指標的對賬。

I would now like to turn the call over to Kevin Holleran.

我現在想把電話轉給 Kevin Holleran。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. It's my pleasure to welcome all of you to Hayward's fourth quarter earnings call.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早上好。我很高興歡迎大家參加海沃德第四季度的財報電話會議。

I'll start on Slide 4 of our earnings presentation with today's key messages. As we continue to navigate a very dynamic operating environment, I'm pleased that our fourth quarter performance was in line with expectations. Consistent with the outlook we communicated a quarter ago, our results reflected the continued reduction of channel inventory days on hand. I'll make additional comments on our expectation for channel inventory in a moment.

我將從今天的關鍵信息開始我們收益演示的幻燈片 4。隨著我們繼續在一個非常動態的運營環境中航行，我很高興我們第四季度的業績符合預期。與我們一個季度前傳達的展望一致，我們的結果反映了手頭渠道庫存天數的持續減少。我稍後會就我們對渠道庫存的期望做出額外的評論。

Second, we took proactive steps during the second half to realign our cost structure to current market conditions while maintaining our strategic growth investments and productivity initiatives. This includes successfully executing the previously announced enterprise cost reduction program, which was designed to drive substantial variable cost reductions and structural SG&A savings of approximately 10% on an annual basis. Under this program, we delivered approximately $9 million in SG&A savings in the fourth quarter and are on track to deliver the full annual savings of $25 million to $30 million in 2023.

其次，我們在下半年採取了積極措施，根據當前市場狀況調整成本結構，同時保持我們的戰略增長投資和生產力計劃。這包括成功執行先前宣布的企業成本削減計劃，該計劃旨在推動大幅削減可變成本，並使結構性 SG&A 每年節省約 10%。根據該計劃，我們在第四季度實現了約 900 萬美元的 SG&A 節省，並有望在 2023 年實現 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的全部年度節省。

Third, Hayward has a long-standing commitment to lean manufacturing and continuous improvement. We view operational excellence as a significant competitive advantage. We demonstrated our agile manufacturing capabilities throughout the year, continuing to ramp production in the first half to deliver on a record backlog, then reducing production in the second half to support structural margins during a period of declining volume and reducing channel inventory days on hand.

第三，海沃德長期致力於精益生產和持續改進。我們將卓越運營視為一項重要的競爭優勢。我們全年展示了我們的敏捷製造能力，上半年繼續提高產量以交付創紀錄的積壓訂單，然後在下半年減少產量以在銷量下降和渠道庫存天數減少期間支持結構性利潤率。

Fourth, we continue to strengthen Hayward's position as the premier company in the attractive pool industry. We are seeing positive market reception of our innovative new products and are actively converting target accounts to increase Hayward's dealer base.

第四，我們繼續加強海沃德作為有吸引力的游泳池行業領先公司的地位。我們看到市場對我們創新的新產品的積極接受，並正在積極轉換目標客戶以增加 Hayward 的經銷商基礎。

Finally, we are introducing full year 2023 guidance. Hayward delivered tremendous growth in recent years, building upon a strong installed customer base that we expect will drive aftermarket sales for years to come. Compared to 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, our 2022 net sales and adjusted EBITDA represent increases of 79% and 113%, respectively. Given current global economic conditions and difficult comparisons to this period of extremely strong growth, we now expect sales to reduce in 2023 before resuming a historic mid- to high single-digit growth trajectory.

最後，我們將推出 2023 年全年指南。海沃德近年來實現了巨大的增長，建立在我們預計將在未來幾年推動售後市場銷售的強大客戶基礎之上。與大流行前的最後一年 2019 年相比，我們 2022 年的淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 分別增長了 79% 和 113%。鑑於當前的全球經濟狀況以及與這段極其強勁增長時期的艱難比較，我們現在預計銷售額將在 2023 年下降，然後恢復歷史性的中高個位數增長軌跡。

We see 2023 as a year of continued channel inventory recalibration with our net sales into the channel meaningfully below sell-through. This headwind will partially be offset by the adoption of innovative new products, disciplined price cost management and operational excellence. For the full year 2023, we expect net sales to reduce approximately 18% to 22% and adjusted EBITDA of $265 million to $285 million.

我們將 2023 年視為渠道庫存持續重新校準的一年，我們進入渠道的淨銷售額顯著低於銷售率。採用創新的新產品、嚴格的價格成本管理和卓越的運營將部分抵消這種逆風。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計淨銷售額將減少約 18% 至 22%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.65 億美元至 2.85 億美元。

Turning now to Slide 5, highlighting the results of the fourth quarter and full year. Net sales in the fourth quarter reduced 27% year-over-year to $259 million, largely due to lower volumes related to channel inventory movements and softer conditions in certain markets, especially Europe and Canada. We are encouraged by continued positive price realization during the quarter, more than offsetting inflation and the success of our innovative new solutions.

現在轉到幻燈片 5，突出顯示第四季度和全年的結果。第四季度的淨銷售額同比下降 27% 至 2.59 億美元，這主要是由於與渠道庫存變動相關的銷量下降以及某些市場（尤其是歐洲和加拿大）的疲軟狀況。我們對本季度持續積極的價格實現感到鼓舞，這不僅僅是抵消通貨膨脹和我們創新解決方案的成功。

Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $53 million, with a margin of 20.6%. We realized manufacturing cost savings and the initial SG&A savings under our cost reduction program to support structural margins as production volumes declined. Adjusted EPS in the quarter was $0.11.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 5300 萬美元，利潤率為 20.6%。我們通過成本削減計劃實現了製造成本節約和初始 SG&A 節約，以在產量下降時支持結構性利潤率。本季度調整後的每股收益為 0.11 美元。

For the full year 2022, net sales reduced 6% to $1.3 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $368 million, each consistent with our guidance. Despite our reduced net sales into the channel, our primary channel partners delivered record sell-through revenue of Hayward products into the core U.S. market in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA margin was a healthy 28%. Adjusted EPS for the full year was $0.98.

2022 年全年，淨銷售額下降 6% 至 13 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.68 億美元，均符合我們的指引。儘管我們減少了渠道的淨銷售額，但我們的主要渠道合作夥伴在 2022 年向美國核心市場提供了創紀錄的 Hayward 產品銷售收入。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 28% 的健康水平。全年調整後每股收益為 0.98 美元。

Turning now to Slide 6 for a business update. End consumer demand continues to vary significantly by region. While underlying demand trends are moderating in North America, the sunbelt continues to be an area of relative strength, driven by secular trends related to demographics and outdoor living. We are seeing softer trends in more seasonal markets such as the Northeast U.S. and Canada. Within Europe and Rest of World, we continue to see solid growth in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, whereas conditions are especially challenging in Northern Europe.

現在轉到幻燈片 6 了解業務更新。終端消費者的需求繼續因地區而異。雖然北美的潛在需求趨勢正在放緩，但在與人口統計和戶外生活相關的長期趨勢的推動下，陽光地帶仍然是一個相對強勢的地區。我們看到美國東北部和加拿大等更具季節性的市場呈現疲軟趨勢。在歐洲和世界其他地區，我們繼續看到中東和東南亞的穩健增長，而北歐的情況尤其具有挑戰性。

We estimate that Hayward captured significant market share over the last 3 years. We believe this trend is more structural than transitory. This was most notable in the strategically important U.S. sunbelt region and in critical products on the [pool pad] like controls, variable speed pumps and water sanitization.

我們估計海沃德在過去 3 年中佔據了重要的市場份額。我們認為這種趨勢更具結構性而非暫時性。這在具有重要戰略意義的美國陽光帶地區以及 [泳池墊] 上的關鍵產品（如控制裝置、變速泵和水消毒）中最為顯著。

Our strengthening IoT digital leadership position is driving the development of connected products within our omni automation ecosystem. The market is responding favorably as we continue to gain traction with dealer additions in our Totally Hayward loyalty program.

我們不斷鞏固的物聯網數字領導地位正在推動我們全自動化生態系統內互聯產品的發展。隨著我們在 Totally Hayward 忠誠度計劃中增加經銷商繼續獲得吸引力，市場反應良好。

Turning to price versus cost dynamic. A series of out-of-cycle price increases were required over the last few years to combat inflation and protect the structural margin profile of the business. While we have seen some commodity and freight costs start to ease, total cost inflation remains elevated. As a result, we implemented the previously announced price increase of 4% to 5% at the beginning of January. The pool industry has been very disciplined on price historically, and we expect the recent price increases to hold.

轉向價格與成本動態。過去幾年需要進行一系列週期外價格上漲，以對抗通貨膨脹並保護企業的結構性利潤率。雖然我們看到一些商品和運費成本開始下降，但總成本通脹仍然居高不下。因此，我們在 1 月初實施了先前宣布的 4% 至 5% 的價格上漲。從歷史上看，游泳池行業在價格方面一直非常自律，我們預計近期的價格上漲將持續下去。

Our channel partners continue to recalibrate the level of Hayward inventory to be appropriately positioned, relative to current market conditions. In the second half of 2022, distributors reduced days on hand as expected after a meaningful inventory build during a period of strong demand and significant supply chain disruption. Based upon channel information, we estimate that our sell-through increased 11% in the U.S. on a full year basis to a record level. However, as I mentioned, we now believe the distribution channel will make additional reductions in 2023 as a result of a softer global economic outlook, lower safety stock requirements due to normalized lead times and higher costs of carrying inventory. We believe the channel will trend towards the low end of historical ranges for inventory days on hand over the course of the year, and we have reflected that in our outlook.

我們的渠道合作夥伴繼續重新調整 Hayward 庫存水平，以根據當前市場條件進行適當定位。 2022 年下半年，在需求強勁和供應鏈嚴重中斷期間大量庫存增加後，分銷商如預期減少了庫存天數。根據渠道信息，我們估計我們在美國的銷售額全年增長 11%，達到創紀錄水平。然而，正如我所提到的，我們現在認為，由於全球經濟前景疲軟、交貨時間正常化導致安全庫存要求降低以及庫存持有成本增加，分銷渠道將在 2023 年進一步減少。我們認為該渠道將在一年中趨向於庫存天數歷史範圍的低端，我們已經在我們的展望中反映了這一點。

Our 2023 guidance now contemplates an additional reduction in channel inventory days on hand with the first quarter impacted most significantly. We took proactive and responsible actions during the fourth quarter to streamline the organization and optimize the cost structure to support margins. This includes a reduction of variable costs in our manufacturing cost base and supply chain to maintain attractive gross margins in the mid- to high 40s. In addition, we expect to deliver structural SG&A savings of approximately 10% on an annual basis or $25 million to $30 million in 2023. These actions are intended to maintain a high 20s adjusted EBITDA profile.

我們的 2023 年指南現在考慮進一步減少渠道庫存天數，第一季度受影響最大。我們在第四季度採取了積極和負責任的行動來精簡組織並優化成本結構以支持利潤率。這包括減少我們的製造成本基礎和供應鏈中的可變成本，以在 40 年代中期至較高水平保持有吸引力的毛利率。此外，我們預計到 2023 年每年結構性 SG&A 節省約 10% 或 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元。這些行動旨在保持 20 多歲的高調整後 EBITDA 概況。

Finally, ESG is very important to Hayward and our shareholders. So I'm pleased to report continued progress on our journey. In 2022, we developed our ESG strategy and framework, which aligns to products, people, planet and principles and completes our first Scope 1 and 2 emission inventories in partnership with a third-party expert. These results and other reporting metrics are included in our first stand-alone disclosure, the Hayward ESG data sheet, which we published on our website during the year. I would encourage our shareholders to review these new disclosures.

最後，ESG 對海沃德和我們的股東來說非常重要。所以我很高興地報告我們的旅程繼續取得進展。 2022 年，我們制定了 ESG 戰略和框架，與產品、人員、地球和原則保持一致，並與第三方專家合作完成了我們的第一個範圍 1 和範圍 2 排放清單。這些結果和其他報告指標包含在我們年內在網站上發布的第一份獨立披露文件 Hayward ESG 數據表中。我會鼓勵我們的股東審查這些新的披露。

Turning now to Slide 7. I'd like to share some perspective on the company's competitive mode that strengthens our market position and drives growth for our shareholders. Starting at the 1:00 position on the pie chart, we have an incredibly strong and trusted brand decades in the making, and we're the largest installed base that comes from having a complete product line across all pool types. This provides ample opportunity to introduce new technologies into the aftermarket, which is the primary driver of our business at approximately 80% of sales.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。我想分享一些關於公司競爭模式的觀點，這些模式加強了我們的市場地位並推動了股東的增長。從餅圖上的 1:00 位置開始，我們擁有一個令人難以置信的強大和值得信賴的品牌數十年，我們是最大的安裝基礎，因為我們擁有涵蓋所有泳池類型的完整產品線。這為將新技術引入售後市場提供了充足的機會，售後市場是我們業務的主要驅動力，約佔銷售額的 80%。

Next is our strength across multiple channels as we revamped our go-to-market model to drive growth. This included restructuring the sales force and introducing dedicated business development teams focused solely on new customer acquisition. The result has been continued growth in the number of pool builders, remodelers and servicers to our Totally Hayward loyalty program that state their reputation on Hayward products every day in the backyard. We also introduced a unique e-commerce approach that resulted in [true] multichannel capabilities across distribution, retail and online.

接下來是我們在多個渠道上的優勢，因為我們改進了進入市場的模式以推動增長。這包括重組銷售隊伍和引入專注於新客戶獲取的專門業務開發團隊。其結果是加入我們的 Totally Hayward 忠誠度計劃的泳池建造商、改造商和服務商的數量持續增長，這些忠誠度計劃每天在後院展示他們對 Hayward 產品的聲譽。我們還引入了一種獨特的電子商務方法，從而實現了跨分銷、零售和在線的 [真正] 多渠道功能。

Moving around the chart, Hayward is committed to operational excellence and continuous improvement. And we substantially improved our manufacturing and supply chain capabilities in recent years. We primarily manufactured domestically with approximately 85% of our production in the U.S. We are vertically integrated with shorter supply chains than others. Our facilities are highly automated and agile with the proven ability to flex up and down as appropriate with limited incremental capital.

圍繞圖表，海沃德致力於卓越運營和持續改進。近年來，我們大幅提高了製造和供應鏈能力。我們主要在國內製造，大約 85% 的生產在美國進行。我們垂直整合的供應鏈比其他供應鏈更短。我們的設施是高度自動化和靈活的，具有經過驗證的能力，可以在有限的增量資本的情況下適當地上下移動。

Finally, one of our biggest differentiators is our product and technology leadership, which I will discuss on the following slide. These important elements of Hayward sustainable competitive moat form a strong foundation for profitable growth longer term.

最後，我們最大的差異化因素之一是我們的產品和技術領導地位，我將在下一張幻燈片中對此進行討論。海沃德可持續競爭護城河的這些重要元素構成了長期盈利增長的堅實基礎。

Turning to Slide 8. I'd like to provide some additional detail on our industry-leading products and technologies. While operational excellence and customer service are ingrained in our culture, at its heart, Hayward as a product company. Recent launches have showcased Hayward's focused new product development strategy. Key product categories have been identified as must-win with the goal of delivering compelling products, capable of attracting both, new customers as well as expanding our total addressable market by driving incremental content into lower technology pools in the installed base. We prioritize investment into these product categories, leveraging in-house core competencies to deliver innovative, patent-protected solutions designed to make pool ownership easier, more affordable and sustainable. They are key to driving growth and market share gains.

轉到幻燈片 8。我想提供一些有關我們行業領先的產品和技術的更多詳細信息。雖然卓越運營和客戶服務根植於我們的文化，但從本質上講，海沃德是一家產品公司。最近的發布展示了 Hayward 專注的新產品開發戰略。關鍵產品類別已被確定為必勝產品，其目標是提供引人注目的產品，能夠吸引新客戶，並通過將增量內容驅動到已安裝基礎中較低的技術池來擴大我們的總目標市場。我們優先投資這些產品類別，利用內部核心競爭力提供創新的、受專利保護的解決方案，旨在使池所有權更容易、更實惠和可持續。它們是推動增長和市場份額增長的關鍵。

A few of these recent introductions are shown here on the slide. Our variable speed and XE pump, DOE-compliant platforms lead the way in energy efficiency and are responsible for our ENERGY STAR Partner of the Year Award. Omni continues to be the IoT automation platform of choice Our [app of cords,] effortless and simple use for both, the homeowner and trade professional. HydraPure is a novel 3-in-1 water treatment technology combining UV with Ozone and AOP to provide the safest, purest and clearest water. The new S3 AquaRite builds on our best-in-class salt chlorination platform providing the ability to operate at 1/3 the salt concentration of legacy designs and offering unique control capability. Our LED lighting solutions, [fan] pool, spa, water features and now landscape. Simplicity of installation and control was recently added through the introduction of SmartPower. Finally, the new universal HC heater offers dual fuel capability and combines efficiency and performance in the industry's smallest footprint, easiest to install heater.

幻燈片中顯示了其中一些最近的介紹。我們的變速泵和 XE 泵符合 DOE 標準，在能源效率方面處於領先地位，並獲得了我們的能源之星年度合作夥伴獎。 Omni 仍然是首選的物聯網自動化平台我們的[繩索應用程序]對房主和貿易專業人士來說都毫不費力且簡單易用。 HydraPure 是一種新穎的三合一水處理技術，結合了紫外線、臭氧和 AOP，可提供最安全、最純淨和最清澈的水。新的 S3 AquaRite 建立在我們一流的鹽氯化平台之上，能夠在傳統設計的 1/3 鹽濃度下運行，並提供獨特的控制能力。我們的 LED 照明解決方案、[風扇] 游泳池、水療中心、水景和現在的景觀。最近通過引入 SmartPower 增加了安裝和控制的簡單性。最後，新的通用 HC 加熱器提供雙燃料功能，並在業界佔地面積最小、安裝最簡單的加熱器中結合了效率和性能。

To summarize, technology leadership is central to our growth strategy, and we are very proud of our recent innovations. We continue to prioritize investments into new product developments to further strengthen our competitive positioning and support our customers with industry-leading products and technologies.

總而言之，技術領先地位是我們增長戰略的核心，我們為我們最近的創新感到非常自豪。我們繼續優先投資於新產品開發，以進一步加強我們的競爭地位，並以行業領先的產品和技術支持我們的客戶。

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Eifion Jones, who will discuss our financial results in more detail.

有了這個，我現在想把電話轉給 Eifion Jones，他將更詳細地討論我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning. I'll start on Slide 9. All comparisons will be made on a year-over-year basis.

謝謝你，凱文，早上好。我將從幻燈片 9 開始。所有比較都將按年進行。

Net sales for the fourth quarter decreased 27% to $259 million. This was in line with our expectation and primarily driven by a 36% reduction in volume and a 1% unfavorable foreign exchange impact, partially offset by 9% from price realization and 2% contribution from acquisitions. The volume decline during the quarter was primarily driven by distribution channel inventory movements, which were anticipated as we entered the quarter.

第四季度淨銷售額下降 27% 至 2.59 億美元。這符合我們的預期，主要是由於銷量下降 36% 和 1% 的不利外匯影響，部分被價格實現的 9% 和收購貢獻的 2% 所抵消。本季度銷量下降的主要原因是分銷渠道庫存變動，這在我們進入本季度時就已經預料到了。

Gross profit in the fourth quarter was $109.5 million. Gross profit margin declined 466 basis points to 42.3% as continued strong price realization was offset by lower operating leverage on reduced production volumes. Selling, general and administrative expenses during the fourth quarter were consistent with the prior year period at $60.5 million, representing 23% of net sales. As a reminder, the fourth quarter 2021 benefited from a $5 million favorable nonrecurring item, related to insurance proceeds from a property claim. And we realized approximately $9 million in structural cost savings in the fourth quarter of 2022.

第四季度的毛利潤為 1.095 億美元。毛利率下降 466 個基點至 42.3%，原因是持續強勁的價格實現被產量減少導致的較低運營槓桿所抵消。第四季度的銷售、一般和管理費用為 6050 萬美元，與去年同期持平，占淨銷售額的 23%。提醒一下，2021 年第四季度受益於 500 萬美元的有利非經常性項目，與財產索賠的保險收益有關。我們在 2022 年第四季度實現了約 900 萬美元的結構性成本節約。

Adjusted EBITDA was $53.3 million in the fourth quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.6%. Our effective tax rate was 30.2% in the fourth quarter compared to 18.4% in the prior year period. The year-over-year change was primarily due to the timing of discrete items. Adjusted EPS in the quarter was $0.11, fully diluted share count has decreased 25 million shares or approximately 10% of shares outstanding, primarily the result of the share repurchases completed during the first 3 quarters of 2022.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 5330 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.6%。我們第四季度的有效稅率為 30.2%，而去年同期為 18.4%。同比變化主要是由於離散項目的時間安排。本季度調整後每股收益為 0.11 美元，完全攤薄後的股份數量減少了 2500 萬股，約佔已發行股份的 10%，這主要是 2022 年前三個季度完成的股份回購的結果。

Turning now to Slide 10 for a review of our full year results. Net sales for the fiscal year 2022 decreased 6% to $1.3 billion. This decrease was in line with our guidance and primarily driven by a 20% reduction in volume and 2% unfavorable foreign exchange impact, partially offset by 13% from price realization and a 2% contribution from acquisitions.

現在轉到幻燈片 10，回顧我們的全年業績。 2022 財年的淨銷售額下降 6% 至 13 億美元。這一下降符合我們的指導，主要是由於銷量減少 20% 和 2% 的不利外匯影響，部分被價格實現的 13% 和收購貢獻的 2% 所抵消。

Gross profit for the full year was $597 million. Gross profit margin declined $135 million basis points to 45.4% as strong price realization to combat inflation was offset by a lower operating leverage on reduced volumes in the second half. We invested $22 million in RD&E and engineering in 2022 to support our commitment to growth and innovation. SG&A expenses for the year declined 7% and to $249 million, driven by lower discretionary and volume-based expenses plus the initial benefits of our cost reduction program. On a full year basis, SG&A as a percentage of net sales was 19%.

全年毛利潤為 5.97 億美元。毛利率下降 1.35 億美元基點至 45.4%，這是由於下半年銷量下降導致的較低運營槓桿抵消了抗擊通脹的強勁價格實現。 2022 年，我們在研發和工程領域投資了 2200 萬美元，以支持我們對增長和創新的承諾。今年的 SG&A 費用下降了 7% 至 2.49 億美元，這是由於可自由支配費用和基於數量的費用減少以及我們的成本削減計劃的初步好處。按全年計算，SG&A 占淨銷售額的百分比為 19%。

Adjusted EBITDA was $367.6 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28% for the full year. Our effective tax rate was 23.4% in '22 compared to 21.7% in 2021. Adjusted EPS was $0.98 for the full year 2022.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.676 億美元，全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 28%。我們的有效稅率在 22 年為 23.4%，而 2021 年為 21.7%。2022 年全年調整後每股收益為 0.98 美元。

Now I'll discuss our report with segment results. Beginning on Slide 11. North America net sales for the fourth quarter declined 27% to $216.8 million, driven by 38% lower volumes, partially offset by 9% favorable price impact and 2% contribution from acquisitions. The reduction in volume was largely due to the anticipated rightsizing of channel inventories. Gross profit margin was 43%, and adjusted segment income margin was 21.8%.

現在我將討論我們的報告和細分結果。從幻燈片 11 開始。北美第四季度的淨銷售額下降 27% 至 2.168 億美元，原因是銷量下降 38%，部分被 9% 的有利價格影響和 2% 的收購貢獻所抵消。銷量的減少主要是由於渠道庫存的預期調整。毛利率為 43%，調整後分部利潤率為 21.8%。

Turning to Europe and Rest of World. Net sales for the fourth quarter decreased 23% to $42.2 million. Net sales benefited from a net favorable price increase of approximately 7% but were adversely impacted by a 25% decline in volumes as well as a 5% headwind from unfavorable foreign currency translation. Gross profit margin was 38.8%, and adjusted segment income margin was 19.9%.

轉向歐洲和世界其他地區。第四季度淨銷售額下降 23% 至 4220 萬美元。淨銷售額受益於約 7% 的淨優惠價格增長，但受到銷量下降 25% 以及不利外幣換算帶來的 5% 逆風的不利影響。毛利率為 38.8%，調整後分部利潤率為 19.9%。

Turning to Slide 12 for a review of our reportable segment results for the full year. North America net sales declined 5% to $1.1 billion, driven by 21% lower volumes, partially offset by a 15% of favorable price impact and 2% contribution from acquisitions. Gross profit margin was 46.4% and adjusted segment income margin was 30.7%.

轉到幻燈片 12，回顧我們全年的可報告分部業績。北美淨銷售額下降 5% 至 11 億美元，銷量下降 21%，部分被 15% 的優惠價格影響和 2% 的收購貢獻所抵消。毛利率為 46.4%，調整後分部利潤率為 30.7%。

Turning to Europe and Rest of World. Net sales for the full year decreased 15% to $205.3 million, benefiting from a net favorable pricing increase of approximately 8%, but adversely impacted by a 17% decline in volumes and a 6% headwind from unfavorable foreign currency translation. Gross profit margin was 40% and adjusted segment income margin was 23.6%.

轉向歐洲和世界其他地區。全年淨銷售額下降 15% 至 2.053 億美元，受益於淨優惠定價增長約 8%，但受到銷量下降 17% 和不利外幣換算帶來 6% 逆風的不利影響。毛利率為 40%，調整後分部利潤率為 23.6%。

Turning to Slide 13 for a review of our balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We ended 2022 with total liquidity at $268 million including the cash and cash equivalent balance of $56 million and availability under our undrawn credit facilities of $212 million. Net debt to full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA was 2.9x. We will not make an excess cash flow payment in '23, given our credit agreements permit deductions for CapEx, share repurchases and M&A activities.

轉到幻燈片 13，回顧我們的資產負債表和現金流亮點。截至 2022 年，我們的流動資金總額為 2.68 億美元，其中包括 5600 萬美元的現金和現金等價物餘額，以及 2.12 億美元的未動用信貸額度。淨債務與 2022 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 之比為 2.9 倍。鑑於我們的信貸協議允許扣除資本支出、股票回購和併購活動，我們不會在 23 年支付超額現金流量。

Cash flow from operations was a use of $28 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting an increase in accounts receivable driven by [early by] order terms. Cash flow from operations was $116 million for the full year. Working capital use in 2022 was comparably higher, primarily related for the higher safety stock positions we took in certain raw materials and finished goods. Inventories peaked at the end of the second quarter 2022 and declined by $29 million or 9% in the second half.

來自運營的現金流在第四季度使用了 2800 萬美元，反映出應收賬款的增加受到訂單條款的推動。全年運營現金流為 1.16 億美元。 2022 年的營運資金使用量相對較高，這主要與我們在某些原材料和製成品中採用的較高安全庫存狀況有關。庫存在 2022 年第二季度末達到頂峰，下半年下降 2900 萬美元或 9%。

CapEx is $6 million in the fourth quarter was consistent with the prior year period. For the full year, CapEx of $30 million compared to $26 million in 2021 as we continue to invest in highly efficient automation into our production facilities. Free cash flow was $86 million for the full year 2022. The business has strong free cash flow generation characteristics, driven by high-quality earnings, which support our growth investments.

第四季度的資本支出為 600 萬美元，與去年同期持平。全年，資本支出為 3000 萬美元，而 2021 年為 2600 萬美元，因為我們繼續在生產設施中投資高效自動化。 2022 年全年的自由現金流為 8600 萬美元。在高質量收益的推動下，該業務具有強大的自由現金流生成特徵，支持我們的增長投資。

Turning now to capital allocation on Slide 14. We will maintain a disciplined financial policy. Our capital allocation priorities will be balanced, emphasizing strategic growth investments and shareholder returns while we maintain prudent financial leverage. We also remain an acquisitive company, having successfully integrated 4 acquired companies in the last 18 months, which contributed 2% to sales growth in the full year 2022. Finally, strong free cash flow generation supports opportunistic return of cash to shareholders. We deployed $343 million to repurchase 23 million shares in 2022. Entering '23, we had $400 million remaining on the existing $450 million 3-year share repurchase authorization.

現在轉到幻燈片 14 上的資本配置。我們將保持嚴格的財務政策。我們的資本分配重點將保持平衡，強調戰略增長投資和股東回報，同時保持審慎的財務槓桿。我們仍然是一家收購型公司，在過去 18 個月中成功整合了 4 家收購公司，這為 2022 年全年的銷售額增長貢獻了 2%。最後，強勁的自由現金流產生支持向股東返還現金的機會。我們在 2022 年部署了 3.43 億美元回購 2300 萬股股票。進入 23 年，我們在現有的 4.5 億美元的 3 年期股票回購授權中還剩下 4 億美元。

Turning now to Slide 15 for the main trends supporting our outlook. We remain very positive about the long-term health and growth profile of the pool industry, particularly the strength of the aftermarket. With that said, for the full year 2023, the company anticipates a decrease in consolidated net sales of 18% to 22%. This outlook reflects resiliency in the North American nondiscretionary aftermarket and reductions of approximately 20% to 25% in new construction and discretionary model and upgrades. Whereas in Europe and Rest of the World, we expect reductions more in line with 25% as geopolitical circumstances negatively impact consumer sentiment in that region. These decreases will be partially offset by a 4% to 5% net sales contributions from price increases initiated at the beginning of the year.

現在轉到幻燈片 15，了解支持我們前景的主要趨勢。我們對泳池行業的長期健康和增長狀況仍然非常樂觀，尤其是售後市場的實力。儘管如此，公司預計 2023 年全年綜合淨銷售額將下降 18% 至 22%。這一前景反映了北美非全權售後市場的彈性以及新建築和全權模型和升級減少約 20% 至 25%。而在歐洲和世界其他地區，由於地緣政治環境對該地區的消費者信心產生負面影響，我們預計降幅將達到 25%。這些下降將部分被年初開始的價格上漲帶來的 4% 至 5% 的淨銷售額貢獻所抵消。

Included in our guidance is an additional reduction of channel inventory as a consequence of the reduced consumer demand in 2023, a reversion to normal supply chains and a higher cost of capital. We expect our channel partners to adopt a lean inventory position, given these dynamics and moved to the lower end of their desired days-on-hand targets.

我們的指引中包括由於 2023 年消費者需求減少、恢復正常供應鍊和更高的資本成本而進一步減少渠道庫存。考慮到這些動態，我們希望我們的渠道合作夥伴採用精益庫存狀況，並移動到他們期望的庫存天數目標的下限。

We expect to revert towards more normal seasonality in 2023. However, we expect channel inventory rightsizing the impact the first quarter most significantly with net sales trending below the typical seasonality in this first quarter. We expect gross profit margin to increase in 2023 due to incremental positive price realization and executed productivity initiatives. We anticipate full year '23 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $265 million to $285 million. We are on track to deliver the targeted SG&A cost savings of $25 million to $30 million in '23 or an incremental $16 million to $21 million after achieving approximately $9 million in 2022. These savings will be partially offset by increasing wage inflation and variable compensation.

我們預計到 2023 年將恢復到更正常的季節性。但是，我們預計渠道庫存調整對第一季度的影響最為顯著，第一季度的淨銷售額趨勢低於典型的季節性。我們預計 2023 年毛利率將增加，原因是積極的價格實現和執行的生產力計劃。我們預計 23 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 在 2.65 億美元至 2.85 億美元之間。我們有望在 23 年實現 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的目標 SG&A 成本節約，或在 2022 年實現約 900 萬美元後增加 1600 萬至 2100 萬美元。這些節約將被工資上漲和可變薪酬的增加部分抵消。

We also expect a strong improvement in free cash flow in '23 as we reduce our own inventory levels. This should result in more typical free cash flow conversion of greater than 100% of net income with free cash flow exceeding $150 million. Finally, we expect interest expense of approximately $78 million, reflecting increase in interest rates and borrowing levels. We also expect a modestly higher effective tax rate of approximately 25% and CapEx spending consistent with the prior year at $25 million to $30 million as we continue to support the business and invest for growth.

我們還預計，隨著我們降低自己的庫存水平，23 年的自由現金流將大幅改善。這將導致更典型的自由現金流轉換超過 100% 的淨收入，自由現金流超過 1.5 億美元。最後，我們預計利息支出約為 7800 萬美元，反映出利率和借貸水平的上升。我們還預計，隨著我們繼續支持業務和投資以實現增長，有效稅率將適度提高至約 25%，資本支出將與上一年持平，為 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元。

We are confident in our ability to successfully execute in this dynamic environment and remain very positive about the long-term growth outlook. And with that, I'll now turn the call back to Kevin.

我們相信我們有能力在這個充滿活力的環境中成功執行，並對長期增長前景保持非常積極的態度。有了這個，我現在將電話轉回給凱文。

Thanks, Eifion.

謝謝，埃菲翁。

I'll pick back up on Slide 16. Before we close, let me reiterate the key takeaways from today's presentation. We delivered fourth quarter results that were consistent with our expectations. We are controlling what we can control, optimizing our manufacturing base and taking proactive steps to realign our cost structure to current conditions while positioning for future growth. Our agile manufacturing capabilities provide a significant competitive advantage as we flex production as appropriate to satisfy demand and maintain margins.

我將在幻燈片 16 上繼續。在我們結束之前，讓我重申一下今天演示文稿的主要內容。我們交付的第四季度業績符合我們的預期。我們正在控制我們可以控制的東西，優化我們的製造基地，並採取積極措施根據當前情況調整我們的成本結構，同時為未來增長做好準備。我們靈活的製造能力提供了顯著的競爭優勢，因為我們會適當調整生產以滿足需求並保持利潤。

We continue to position Hayward as a premier company in the attractive pool industry as we innovate and support our customers with best-in-class award-winning products and technologies. Finally, our 2023 outlook reflects continued near-term headwinds related to macroeconomic conditions and channel destock, but I have every confidence that we have the right strategy and talent in place to drive compelling financial results and shareholder value creation.

我們繼續將 Hayward 定位為極具吸引力的泳池行業的一流公司，因為我們通過一流的屢獲殊榮的產品和技術進行創新並為我們的客戶提供支持。最後，我們的 2023 年展望反映了與宏觀經濟狀況和渠道去庫存相關的短期持續逆風，但我完全相信我們擁有正確的戰略和人才到位，可以推動令人矚目的財務業績和股東價值創造。

With that, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

有了這個，我們現在準備好打開問題熱線。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

It appears that we're having a technical difficulty. If everyone could just stand by, we'll be right back to the Q&A session momentarily.

看來我們遇到了技術難題。如果每個人都能袖手旁觀，我們很快就會回到問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Ryan Merkel 和 William Blair。

So Kevin, I wanted to start off with a high-level question on 2022. Can you talk about the bigger accomplishments and some of the bigger changes for the company in '22 as you address the changing market and then [wanted] to set up a stronger '23?

所以凱文，我想從一個關於 2022 年的高層次問題開始。你能談談公司在 22 年取得的更大成就和一些更大的變化嗎，因為你應對不斷變化的市場，然後 [想要] 建立更強大的 23 年？

Sure. It's good to hear from you, Ryan. Thanks for the question.

當然。很高興收到你的來信，瑞安。謝謝你的問題。

I think '22, we accomplished quite a bit to be proud of. The full year '22 performance finished in line with recent expectations from a sales and an adjusted EBITDA standpoint. I think importantly, that 28% adjusted EBITDA margin after an incredibly strong first half in a slower second half is something that we take great pride in. Also, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, this record sell-through of Hayward product into the key U.S. market in that low double digit setting a record, I think it's a great accomplishment as well.

我認為 22 年，我們取得了很多值得驕傲的成就。從銷售和調整後的 EBITDA 角度來看，22 年全年的業績符合近期預期。我認為重要的是，在上半年表現強勁而下半年放緩後，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 28%，這讓我們感到非常自豪。此外，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，Hayward 產品的創紀錄銷售量進入關鍵的美國市場在兩位數的低位創下紀錄，我認為這也是一項偉大的成就。

In the process, providing share gains in some key categories like variable speed pumps controls, salt-alternate sanitizers, [LED] to name a few. So I think importantly, we saw the need for some channel destock and reduction of days on hand, we got after that in the second half of the year and got to really where we were expecting, which was getting back to year-end 2019 levels which was, as you know, the last pre-pandemic.

在此過程中，在一些關鍵類別中提供份額收益，例如變速泵控制、鹽替代消毒劑、[LED] 等。所以我認為重要的是，我們看到了一些渠道去庫存和減少手頭天數的必要性，我們在今年下半年做到了這一點，並真正達到了我們的預期，回到了 2019 年年底的水平如您所知，這是大流行前的最後一次。

So I think I would probably close with just returning over $340 million to shareholders during the year. I think all of those are great accomplishments and set us up well for 2023, which will be, I think, a bit of recalibration before we get back to that more historical mid- to high single-digit growth rate.

所以我認為我可能會在這一年中向股東返還超過 3.4 億美元。我認為所有這些都是偉大的成就，並為我們在 2023 年做好了準備，我認為，在我們回到更具歷史意義的中高個位數增長率之前，這將是一些重新校準。

Got it. Then my follow-up, just on '23 revenue guidance. Can you talk about your assumption for U.S. retail sell-through? And then how much inventory destock are you estimating in '23?

知道了。然後是我的後續行動，只是關於 23 年的收入指導。你能談談你對美國零售銷售的假設嗎？然後你估計 23 年有多少庫存去庫存？

Yes. As it pertains -- you did specifically ask about North America, right, Ryan?

是的。就此而言 - 你確實專門詢問了北美，對吧，Ryan？

Yes, right.

對，對。

Around -- our assumptions for 2023, let's just talk about the key components from a revenue standpoint. From a remodel and upgrade standpoint, which is about 30% of our mix, we're seeing somewhere around 20% reduction in units. New construction, as I think most people are coalescing around, that's 20% mix, and we're calling for between 20% and 25% reduction there.

大約——我們對 2023 年的假設，讓我們從收入的角度談談關鍵組成部分。從改造和升級的角度來看，這大約占我們組合的 30%，我們看到單位減少了大約 20%。新建築，我認為大多數人都在團結一致，這是 20% 的混合，我們呼籲在那裡減少 20% 到 25%。

I think on the nondiscretionary kind of this 50% of our mix, which is very resilient. I think that we would say that there's a potential for maybe 5% unit reduction there as maybe there's some deferred maintenance or as things break, not -- everyone may not upgrade to the most current version. So net of that, there's about 4% price. So I think that, that's about, call it, 10% or so headwind going into 2023. And then beyond that is what we would expect for additional channel destock, which gets us up into that, call it, 18% to 22% overall guide.

我認為在我們組合的這 50% 的非自由支配類型中，這是非常有彈性的。我認為我們會說那裡有可能減少 5% 的單位，因為可能有一些延遲維護或隨著事情的發生，不是 - 每個人都可能不會升級到最新版本。所以淨值，大約有 4% 的價格。所以我認為，到 2023 年，這大約是 10% 左右的逆風。除此之外，我們還期望額外的渠道去庫存，這讓我們達到了 18% 到 22% 的總體水平指導。

I'll just mention Europe. I think we're taking a little bit more of a cautious view around new construction and discretionary upgrades. Of course, there's a little bit of FX headwinds in our expectations. So we're modeling somewhere between 20% and 25% for that segment.

我只想提一下歐洲。我認為我們對新建築和酌情升級持更謹慎的態度。當然，我們的預期中有一點外匯逆風。因此，我們正在為該細分市場建模 20% 到 25% 之間的某處。

The next question comes from Jeff Hammond of KeyCorp.

下一個問題來自 KeyCorp 的 Jeff Hammond。

So really I want to get at the decrementals. It looks like in your guide, your decrementals are kind of 35%, and you're holding the line pretty well. And I guess, fourth quarter, it seemed like the decrementals were worse, and you got some of your SG&A savings. So I just want to understand kind of the confidence in holding the decrementals and what other offsets you're thinking about, whether it be disinflation or less disruption, et cetera, kind of built into that.

所以我真的很想了解遞減量。在你的指南中看起來，你的遞減量大約是 35%，而且你很好地控制了這條線。我猜，第四季度，遞減情況似乎更糟，你得到了一些 SG&A 儲蓄。因此，我只想了解持有遞減量的信心，以及您正在考慮的其他抵消措施，無論是通貨緊縮還是減少干擾等等，都是其中的一部分。

Yes. It's Eifion. Yes, you're right. But that (inaudible) that we're forecasting for next year at 35%, which is more in line with the historical movement we see on incremental decrementals. It was a bit more severe in Q4 last year. But as we've noted in the prepared remarks, it was really a period in which we recalibrated our cost base, both at the manufacturing level as well as the SG&A level. And as we enter 2023, we believe we're in a great shape in the cost base, both at the factory level and in SG&A to deliver those limited decrementals to 35%.

是的。是愛芬。你是對的。但是我們預測明年的（聽不清）為 35%，這更符合我們在增量減量上看到的歷史變化。去年第四季度情況更為嚴重。但正如我們在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，這確實是我們在製造層面和 SG&A 層面重新調整成本基礎的時期。當我們進入 2023 年時，我們相信我們在工廠層面和 SG&A 方面的成本基礎都處於良好狀態，可以將這些有限的遞減量減少到 35%。

We do have, obviously, upwind -- sorry, tailwinds and upside to the extent that we do see some further improvements in areas like freight costs, which have improved over the last 6 months, but that can be a tailwind to 2023. But at this particular point, we believe on the construct of our forecast, our manufacturing cost base and SG&A base are rightsized to deliver the outlook that we've provided.

顯然，我們確實有逆風 - 抱歉，順風和上行，我們確實看到運費等領域的一些進一步改善，這些方面在過去 6 個月有所改善，但這可能是 2023 年的順風。但在在這一點上，我們相信根據我們的預測構建，我們的製造成本基礎和 SG&A 基礎是正確的，可以提供我們提供的前景。

Okay. That's helpful. Maybe just -- can we just talk about normal seasonality? Because it seems like '19, there was some destocking, 2022 was just odd. So I don't know if you can frame how to think about kind of normal seasonality in that first quarter in particular.

好的。這很有幫助。也許只是 - 我們可以談談正常的季節性嗎？因為它看起來像 19 年，有一些去庫存，2022 年只是奇怪。所以我不知道你是否可以構建如何特別考慮第一季度的正常季節性。

Yes, you're right. I mean, typically, when we think about a year -- if we go back pre-pandemic and look at the preceding 5 or 6 years, our first half was about 48% of the full year and second half, 52%. We believe that is going to be our reality in '23 with maybe a slight reduction in Q1, compensated by a little bit more in Q2. But we're trending back to a normal seasonality, which is low Q2 higher -- sorry, low Q1, higher Q2 as the season gets well underway, lower Q3 as the season comes to an end and a higher Q4 as we start to prepare for the forthcoming 2024 season.

你是對的。我的意思是，通常情況下，當我們考慮一年時——如果我們回到大流行前並回顧之前的 5 或 6 年，我們的上半年約為全年的 48%，下半年約為 52%。我們相信這將成為 23 年的現實，第一季度可能會略有減少，第二季度會有所增加。但我們正趨向於恢復正常的季節性，即第二季度較低——抱歉，第一季度較低，隨著季節的順利進行，第二季度較高，隨著季節結束，第三季度較低，而當我們開始準備時，第四季度較高對於即將到來的 2024 賽季。

The next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Just wanted to dig in a bit more to the '23, the build, and in particular, the repair and maintenance. I think Kevin, you said maybe down 5% in '23. Obviously, I understand the kind of the desire to be conservative. I think you commented that during the [GFC] that you saw maintenance to actually grow during that timeframe. So I'm just wondering with unemployment of 3% in the U.S., it feels like we're in a better position today than we were back then. So just wondering why the (inaudible), that's down 5%. And maybe there's been some pull forward, et cetera. So just any thoughts there would be helpful.

只是想深入了解 23 年的構建，尤其是維修和保養。我認為凱文，你說 23 年可能下降了 5%。顯然，我理解那種想要保守的願望。我想你評論說在 [GFC] 期間你看到維護在那個時間段內實際增長。所以我只是想知道美國的失業率為 3%，感覺我們今天的處境比當時更好。所以只是想知道為什麼（聽不清）下降了 5%。也許有一些推動，等等。所以任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean, what we primarily saw in the great financial crisis as I understand, was really our new construction took the biggest impact at that point in time. I think to be pragmatic, looking into 2023 with some of the inflationary concerns, I think it's wise for us to kind of look at that 50% or so, that is very resilient and just say that as we get into the fourth quarter of this year, I think people have the ability to maybe defer some of the maintenance or maybe not fully upgrade to the current version and maybe do more of a like-for-like depending upon what their discretionary income looks like at that point in time.

是的。我的意思是，據我所知，我們在大金融危機中主要看到的是，我們的新建築確實在那個時間點產生了最大的影響。我認為務實一點，帶著一些通脹擔憂展望 2023 年，我認為我們明智的做法是看一下 50% 左右，這是非常有彈性的，只是說當我們進入第四季度時今年，我認為人們有能力推遲一些維護或不完全升級到當前版本，並且可能會做更多類似的事情，具體取決於他們當時的可支配收入情況。

So I don't think that there's anything bigger at play, Nigel, than just trying to be a bit cautious with what might happen with this 50% of the -- of our revenue flow.

因此，奈傑爾，我認為沒有什麼比僅僅對我們收入流的這 50% 可能發生的事情保持謹慎的態度更重要的了。

(inaudible) understand that. And then my follow-on question, again, digging a bit deeper into the inventory dynamics. So it looks like about 10 points of headwinds baked in for inventory in North America, that's about $100 million, I think, of headwind. Curious if you would expect to see the bulk of that to hit in 1Q and then perhaps a little less than 2Q? And then maybe just to frame kind of what impact you saw in the second half of last year?

（聽不清）明白這一點。然後是我的後續問題，再次深入挖掘庫存動態。因此，北美的庫存似乎有大約 10 個逆風點，我認為這大約是 1 億美元的逆風。好奇你是否希望看到其中大部分在第一季度出現，然後可能比第二季度少一點？然後也許只是為了構建您在去年下半年看到的影響？

Yes. So the second half of 2022, I would say, obviously, in the Q2 call is when we identified the need to take days on hand out as we were starting to end the 2022 season. Our objective was to get days on hand by the end of the year back to pre-pandemic levels, which was -- 2019 would be that marker, and we did that. We accomplished that in the -- by the end of December, kind of getting back to those days on hand, months on hand in the channel.

是的。所以 2022 年下半年，我想說，很明顯，在第二季度的電話會議中，我們確定需要在 2022 年賽季結束之際抽出幾天時間。我們的目標是在年底前將可用天數恢復到大流行前的水平，那是——2019 年將是那個標誌，我們做到了。我們在 12 月底完成了這一點，有點回到手頭上的那些日子，頻道里手頭幾個月。

As the second half played out and as we look to finalize our 2023 guide, I would say some of the discretionary outlook for 2023 continue to soften as I previously spoke around remodels and new construction and whatnot.

隨著下半年的結束以及我們希望最終確定 2023 年指南，我想說 2023 年的一些自由裁量前景繼續走軟，因為我之前談到了改造和新建築等等。

So with that view, having done good work in the second half of 2022, I think that there's a couple of things contributing to a desire to have less inventory. Overall, if there's less retail activity, less inventory is required in the channel to service that. I think, secondly, us and most OEMs are back to normal lead times. So we're able to provide a more just in time now that the supply chain disruptions are largely behind us. And then thirdly, I would say, obviously, inventory carrying costs are more expensive today than they were during the pandemic.

因此，鑑於這種觀點，在 2022 年下半年做了很好的工作後，我認為有幾件事導致了減少庫存的願望。總體而言，如果零售活動較少，則渠道中需要較少的庫存來提供服務。我認為，其次，我們和大多數原始設備製造商都恢復了正常的交貨時間。因此，既然供應鏈中斷已經基本過去，我們能夠及時提供更多服務。第三，我要說的是，很明顯，今天的庫存持有成本比大流行期間要貴。

So for all those reasons, that's really what we accomplished in the second half of 2022, which I would say was a success and the need for additional (inaudible) work to be done in the start of 2023, Nigel.

因此，出於所有這些原因，這確實是我們在 2022 年下半年取得的成就，我想說這是成功的，並且需要在 2023 年初完成額外的（聽不清）工作，Nigel。

The next question comes from Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I had kind of a similar question to what Nigel just asked, but on the upgrade and remodel side. Can you contextualize the kind of rough outlook you gave for '23 versus prior recessions? And as a follow-on to that, is that a [tier 4] forecast at this point? Or do you already have enough channel commentary and install a commentary or whatever to have kind of the real look at it at this point in the year?

我有一個與奈傑爾剛才問的類似的問題，但在升級和改造方面。您能否將您對 23 世紀與之前的經濟衰退給出的那種粗略前景聯繫起來？作為後續，這是[第 4 層] 預測嗎？或者您是否已經有足夠的頻道評論並安裝評論或其他任何內容以便在今年的這個時候真正了解它？

Yes, I'll jump in here. It's Eifion. When we think about the aftermarket, we would say typically 50% of our aftermarket is nondiscretionary resilient. However, we are given due recognition that it's very unusually [violent] right now with the interest rate environment and a lot of discussion around where the economy goes. So to be cautious and prudent, we've said that upgrading that takes place at a break fix time period. So when you see an end-of-life asset comes to the end of its life, typically people are spending money to go to the latest upgrade. And that may be deferred, and that's reflected in our guidance.

是的，我會跳進去。是愛芬。當我們考慮售後市場時，我們會說通常 50% 的售後市場具有非自由裁量權的彈性。然而，我們得到應有的承認，現在的利率環境和圍繞經濟走向的大量討論非常不尋常 [暴力]。因此，為了謹慎和謹慎，我們已經說過升級發生在故障修復時間段。因此，當您看到報廢資產的使用壽命即將結束時，通常人們會花錢進行最新升級。這可能會被推遲，這反映在我們的指南中。

We think it's a very cautious view, but we want to be cautious as we start the year off here in the beginning of '23.

我們認為這是一個非常謹慎的觀點，但我們希望在 23 年初在這裡開始新的一年時保持謹慎。

In terms of remodel -- we talked about remodels before. We do see the installed base. We do believe there's pent-up demand for remodeling. However, again, based upon the backdrop of the economy, we think very much similar to new construction that could be a case here for down remodels and additions (inaudible) rate in the region of 20% to 25% across our business base.

在改造方面——我們之前談到過改造。我們確實看到了安裝基礎。我們確實相信有被壓抑的改造需求。然而，再次，基於經濟背景，我們認為與新建築非常相似，這可能是我們業務基礎中 20% 至 25% 區域的向下改造和增加（聽不清）率的情況。

Fair enough. Kevin, I think you touched on it in your prepared remarks that this outlook brings channel inventory days towards the low end of prior ranges. I mean, eventually, that turns into a tailwind, I don't have that destock. What scenario could have another year of channel destock after this? So we don't assume the markets fall apart. I mean at the very bottom of the ranges of inventory, do you feel comfortable, or is there essentially room to go there? And I'll stop there.

很公平。凱文，我認為你在準備好的評論中提到了這一點，即這種前景使渠道庫存天數接近先前範圍的低端。我的意思是，最終，這變成了順風，我沒有去庫存。什麼情況下還能再有一年的渠道去庫存？所以我們不認為市場會崩潰。我的意思是在庫存範圍的最底部，你感覺舒服嗎，或者基本上有空間去那裡嗎？我就到此為止。

Yes. Thanks, Rob.

是的。謝謝，羅布。

I would say that our expectation is that the channel correction in terms of days on hand will be completed in 2023. I don't think that based upon some of our conversations and again, all those factors that I mentioned just a moment ago, while answering Nigel's question, I think, plays into the fact that we can maybe just dip maybe below normal days on hand, and we can -- will serve the demand in 2023 with slightly less overall days on hand.

我想說的是，我們的預期是在手頭天數方面的渠道調整將在 2023 年完成。我不認為基於我們的一些談話，我剛才提到的所有這些因素，而我認為，回答 Nigel 的問題可以說明這樣一個事實，即我們可以將手頭的正常天數降至低於正常天數，而且我們可以——將在 2023 年滿足需求，而手頭的總天數會略有減少。

And to your point, that may provide some tailwinds into 2024, but that seems a long way off at this point.

就你的觀點而言，這可能會為 2024 年提供一些順風，但目前看來還有很長的路要走。

The next question comes from Saree Boroditsky of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Saree Boroditsky。

So you highlighted some structural share gains. I think you've talked about that being around [2.5%]. What are you seeing now that supply chains have normalized, and how do we think about you maintaining that?

所以你強調了一些結構性的份額收益。我想你已經談到了 [2.5%] 左右。您現在看到供應鏈已經正常化了，我們如何看待您維持這種狀態？

Yes. I mean, each year, our top priority is profitable growth, which implies share gains. I'd say over the last 2.5 to 3 years, we've experienced share gains across some critical product categories. We view that as more structural than transitory, for a number of reasons. I think product introductions plays into it as reflected with our Vitality Index, which is up over 20%. Some new dealer conversions into our Totally Hayward program with more folks in the backyard advocating Hayward product.

是的。我的意思是，每年，我們的首要任務是盈利增長，這意味著份額增長。我想說在過去的 2.5 到 3 年裡，我們在一些關鍵產品類別中經歷了份額增長。出於多種原因，我們認為這更具結構性而非暫時性。我認為產品介紹發揮了作用，正如我們的活力指數所反映的那樣，該指數上升了 20% 以上。一些新的經銷商轉變為我們的 Totally Hayward 計劃，更多的人在後院提倡 Hayward 產品。

I think we've seen great penetration, specifically in some of the year-round sunbelt markets. And I feel that we're still really in the early innings of some of the adoption of new technologies, be that controls or alternate sanitizers. And I think that we have great products to bring to the market. And we'll continue to see that upgrading opportunity with Hayward products into the market.

我認為我們已經看到了巨大的滲透，特別是在一些全年開放的陽光地帶市場。而且我覺得我們仍然處於採用某些新技術的早期階段，無論是控制還是替代消毒劑。我認為我們有很棒的產品可以推向市場。我們將繼續看到海沃德產品進入市場的升級機會。

Great. And then could you just talk about the cadence of the remaining SG&A savings and how we should think about that impacting margins through 2023 and into 2024?

偉大的。然後您能否談談剩餘 SG&A 節省的節奏，以及我們應該如何考慮這對 2023 年和 2024 年利潤率的影響？

Yes. So we have essentially completed all of the rightsizing of our SG&A base as we closed out Q4. And so we entered 2023 in a very healthy position to start realizing the entirety of the run rate savings of $25 million to $30 million per quarter. And so you will see our SG&A base in each of the quarters, around $60 million beginning in Q1. So we're in great shape [into] the year with all of those savings back into our numbers, and we're realizing those as we come out of the gate.

是的。因此，當我們結束第四季度時，我們基本上完成了 SG&A 基地的所有調整。因此，我們以非常健康的狀態進入 2023 年，開始實現每季度 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的全部運行率節省。因此，您將在每個季度看到我們的 SG&A 基礎，從第一季度開始約為 6000 萬美元。因此，我們在 [進入] 年時狀態良好，所有這些節省都回到了我們的數字中，並且當我們走出大門時，我們正在意識到這些。

The next question comes from Michael Halloran of Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Michael Halloran。

So 2 questions here quick. First one, when you look at the guidance back half of the year, it seems like you're assuming positive North American growth, which makes sense given the destock comps. How are you guys thinking about the underlying sellout in the channel as you get to the back half of the year? Is it still down year-over-year at that point? Or it's just the destocking comps that is driving the year-over-year gains? Or is there something else going on?

所以這裡有 2 個問題。第一個，當你回顧半年的指引時，你似乎假設北美正增長，考慮到去庫存組合，這是有道理的。到了今年下半年，你們如何看待渠道中的潛在銷售情況？到那時它仍然同比下降嗎？還是僅僅是去庫存化公司推動了同比增長？還是有其他事情發生？

Yes. It's Eifion. Yes. So no, we expect the destocking to impact our sales into the channel, predominantly in the first half. We expect sell out of the channel to be fairly consistently down over each of the quarters but our sell-in to the channel to pick up in the second half as we start to build for the seasonal year '24.

是的。是愛芬。是的。所以不，我們預計去庫存會影響我們對渠道的銷售，主要是在上半年。我們預計每個季度的渠道銷售量都將相當一致地下降，但隨著我們開始為 24 年的季節性建設，我們對渠道的銷售量將在下半年回升。

And then how are you thinking about capital usage here? You just buy back in the fourth quarter, given where your guidance is leverage is a little bit higher here. Are you guys still contemplating buybacks as you think about capital usage in 2023, or are there other priorities?

那麼你如何看待這裡的資本使用？你只需在第四季度回購，因為你的指導是這裡的槓桿率略高。你們在考慮 2023 年的資本使用時是否仍在考慮回購，還是有其他優先事項？

Yes. Look, I would say we remain very disciplined on our capital allocation program. Our financial policy requires us to maintain leverage in the target range of 2 to 3x. At the end of '22, we were at 2.9x. And despite the lower guidance on EBITDA in '23 versus '22, we still do expect to close '23 out with leverage ratios of around 2.9 to 3x at the end of the year, driven by a meaningful cash flow generation.

是的。看，我會說我們在資本配置計劃上仍然非常自律。我們的財務政策要求我們將槓桿率維持在 2 至 3 倍的目標範圍內。在 22 年底，我們是 2.9 倍。儘管 23 年的 EBITDA 指引低於 22 年的指引，但我們仍然預計在有意義的現金流產生的推動下，到年底以 2.9 至 3 倍左右的槓桿率結束 23 年。

And the focus is going to be on meaningful cash flow generation from the business. We've got no particular plans now for use of capital other than to continue to pay down our net debt position throughout 2023 as well as the investor CapEx programs into the business.

重點將放在從業務中產生有意義的現金流上。除了在整個 2023 年繼續償還我們的淨債務頭寸以及投資者對該業務的資本支出計劃外，我們現在沒有特別的資本使用計劃。

The next question comes from William Carter of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 William Carter。

So first question I would ask is going back to your own kind of inventory. Your drawdown plan, I believe, last quarter was $90 million, you draw down some, that would imply an incremental [$50] million. But I would guess your volume assumptions for next year are now different relative to where they were before. And if I look -- if I read your free cash flow guidance correctly, you only got about $6 million to $15 million of working capital. So could you help us frame how much potential upside there is to that $150 million in free cash flow from drawdown, what you're planning, your own inventory, your own production, your own purchases?

所以我要問的第一個問題是回到你自己的庫存類型。我相信，你的縮編計劃上個季度是 9000 萬美元，你縮減了一些，這意味著增加 [50] 百萬美元。但我猜你對明年的銷量假設現在與以前有所不同。如果我看 - 如果我正確閱讀了你的自由現金流量指導，你只有大約 600 萬到 1500 萬美元的營運資金。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解從提款中獲得的 1.5 億美元自由現金流、您的計劃、您自己的庫存、您自己的生產、您自己的採購有多少潛在的上升空間？

Yes, sure. So as we previously communicated, inventory peaks in our own balance sheet, midyear last year, we -- around about $313 million. We reduced that down to $284 million by the end of the year. When you think about the year-over-year increase '22 versus '21, that was about a $50 million increase in working capital, about half of that was inflation. The other half is divided between safety stock positions we took and acquired inventory through the J&J acquisition.

是的，當然。因此，正如我們之前所傳達的那樣，我們自己的資產負債表中的庫存在去年年中達到峰值，我們 - 大約 3.13 億美元。到年底，我們將其減少到 2.84 億美元。當你考慮 22 年與 21 年的同比增長時，營運資本增加了大約 5000 萬美元，其中大約一半是通貨膨脹。另一半分為我們採取的安全庫存頭寸和通過強生收購獲得的庫存。

What we're forecasting for next year is to continue to reduce our inventory down to our target months on hand position of 3 months on hand for raw materials and 2 months on hand finished goods. We don't quite get there by the end of next year, but we're super plus. And we've got a lot of plans in place to drive it down there.

我們對明年的預測是繼續將我們的庫存減少到我們的目標庫存月數，即原材料庫存 3 個月和成品庫存 2 個月。到明年年底我們還沒有完全達到目標，但我們已經非常出色了。我們已經制定了很多計劃將其推到那裡。

In terms of the free cash flow figure that I quoted of $150 million, yes, there is upside to that if we can continue to drive inventory out of the balance sheet, which is our plan. We want to be cautious about that. We want to be fully prepared to support the '24 season. We recognize the guidance we have given is cautious, but we remain very optimistic about the start to next season. And we will gauge our level of inventory as we enter Q4 as being appropriate or not, to support '24.

就我引用的 1.5 億美元的自由現金流數字而言，是的，如果我們能夠繼續將庫存從資產負債表中剔除，那將是有好處的，這是我們的計劃。我們要對此保持謹慎。我們希望做好充分準備來支持 24 賽季。我們認識到我們給出的指導是謹慎的，但我們對下個賽季的開始仍然非常樂觀。當我們進入第四季度時，我們將衡量我們的庫存水平是否合適，以支持 '24。

But at this time, Andrew, there is upside, the $150 million, that is predicated upon what we believe our inventory needs to close out at '23 prepared to the '24 season.

但此時，安德魯，有上行空間，即 1.5 億美元，這是基於我們認為我們的庫存需要在 23 年準備到 24 年賽季結束的前提下得出的。

Second question I would ask is I believe last quarter, you said pricing net of material cost inflation was positive. That was in 3Q. I'm not sure if you said that today. So was it a positive? Did it accelerate? And kind of how are you thinking about gross margin pricing relative to your cost for next year? Also recognizing, I know you've got a very long inventory position. So we've seen some favorability in COGS that might take away [the] flow through.

我要問的第二個問題是，我相信上個季度，你說扣除材料成本通脹後的定價是積極的。那是在第三季度。我不確定你今天是否說過。那麼這是積極的嗎？有沒有加速？您如何考慮相對於明年成本的毛利率定價？還認識到，我知道你有一個非常長的庫存頭寸。因此，我們已經看到 COGS 的一些優勢可能會帶走 [the] 流量。

Yes. That's exactly right. I mean when we think about -- let's talk about margins in Q4. They were impacted by the higher acquisition cost of raw materials at the back end of Q2 and into Q3. That roll through our cost of sales in Q4 and that's behind us. Now we did start to see some tempering of inflation. I want to be clear, we didn't see de-inflation, but we saw some tempering of inflation in Q4 which will start to benefit our 2023 period, because we've also instituted now a price increase of 5%, beginning January 1.

是的。這是完全正確的。我的意思是當我們考慮 - 讓我們談談第四季度的利潤率。他們受到第二季度末和第三季度原材料採購成本較高的影響。這通過了我們在第四季度的銷售成本，而這已經過去了。現在我們確實開始看到通脹有所緩和。我想明確一點，我們沒有看到通貨膨脹，但我們看到第四季度的通貨膨脹有所緩和，這將開始有利於我們的 2023 年期間，因為我們現在還制定了 5% 的價格上漲，從 1 月 1 日開始.

So we believe based upon now the institution of that new price, the rightsizing of our manufacturing cost base, continued reduction in freight costs over this time period that our gross margins will start to elevate back into the high 40s by the time we get through the end of Q2, and it will carry at that level through the end of the full year.

因此，我們相信，基於現在新價格的製度、我們製造成本基礎的合理調整、這段時間運費成本的持續降低，我們的毛利率將在我們度過難關時開始回升至 40 多歲的高點第二季度末，它將保持這一水平直到全年結束。

So we're very comfortable in the projections that we put forward for high 40s gross margin for this year, predicated upon their price and normalization of freight, coupled with a tempering of inflation in raw materials.

因此，我們對今年 40 年代高毛利率的預測感到非常滿意，這是基於它們的價格和運費正常化，再加上原材料通脹緩和。

The next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

I just -- Kevin, I want to just follow up on some of your comments on sell out earlier. Just on the 11% for 2022, can you clarify if that was revenue or units? And then the same question for the 2023 outlook of, I think, in aggregate, you're expecting sort of down 10%. So can you just clarify between the revenue and volume?

我只是 - 凱文，我只想跟進你對早些時候售罄的一些評論。就 2022 年的 11% 而言，您能否澄清一下這是收入還是單位數？然後是關於 2023 年前景的同樣問題，我認為，總體而言，你預計會下降 10%。那麼你能澄清一下收入和數量嗎？

On the 2022, that was units rate -- sorry, could you restate the second part of the question, Rafe?

在 2022 年，那是單位費率——抱歉，Rafe，你能重申一下問題的第二部分嗎？

Yes, so the sellout comments, you answered the first one that the 11% was on units, not revenue. For 2023, what are you expecting on revenue and units for sellout? I think you said 10%, was that a volume number or a revenue number?

是的，所以售罄的評論，你回答第一個 11% 是關於單位，而不是收入。對於 2023 年，您對銷售收入和銷量有何期望？我想你說的是 10%，那是數量還是收入？

So yes, to be clear, when we're thinking about the '23 guidance, all of the metrics we quoted 20% to 25% new construction, remodel and the discretionary element of the aftermarket, those were all unit-based figures. Those will be offset by the -- partially offset by the 5% price increase that we've put through beginning of 2021. When we think about -- (inaudible). When we think about the full year sellout, we're guiding down high single digits as an aggregate in the business, and that is a revenue sellout reduction year-upon-year.

所以，是的，需要明確的是，當我們考慮'23 指南時，我們引用的所有指標 20% 到 25% 的新建築、改造和售後市場的自由裁量元素，這些都是基於單位的數字。這些將被我們在 2021 年初提出的 5% 的價格上漲部分抵消。當我們考慮時 - （聽不清）。當我們考慮全年售罄時，我們將業務總量下調至高個位數，即收入同比減少。

Got it. Okay. (inaudible)

知道了。好的。 （聽不清）

Adding another -- I would add the difference to the guidance, the channels you saw.

添加另一個 - 我會在指南中添加差異，您看到的渠道。

Can you just remind us what 2021? Yes. Can you remind us what the 2021 sellout was? So we can sort of think about how you're sell-in versus sellout has trended over the last few years here?

你能提醒我們 2021 年是什麼嗎？是的。你能提醒我們 2021 年的銷售情況嗎？因此，我們可以考慮一下過去幾年在這裡的銷售與銷售趨勢如何？

Yes. I believe 2021, rate, was mid-20s. Sorry, sorry, sorry. That's wrong. No, no, no. That was rate, sorry. That was our expectation on sellout for 2022. We were actually mid-30s on sell-outs for 2020 -- for 2021. Sorry, yes, I want to correct the record there. We were calling for mid-20s in 2022 and actually realized kind of low double digits after [35] or so actual (inaudible) 2021.

是的。我相信 2021 年是 20 多歲。對不起，對不起，對不起。那是錯誤的。不不不。那是費率，抱歉。這是我們對 2022 年售罄的預期。實際上，我們 2020 年 - 2021 年的售罄是 30 多歲。抱歉，是的，我想更正那裡的記錄。我們要求在 2022 年達到 20 多歲，實際上在 2021 年 [35] 左右實際（聽不清）之後實現了低兩位數。

That's really helpful. And just on the -- you commented that channel inventories, you're expecting them to get to sort of historically low levels versus where they've been in the past. Is there anything structural about that where you'd expect that to continue into 2024? Or as sellout kind of stabilizes and there's just more certainty around the economic environment, would you expect the channel to try to return to normal levels? Like could we see a restock at some point where sell-in starts to track ahead of sellout? And like how early could that happen?

這真的很有幫助。就在 - 你評論說渠道庫存，你希望他們能夠達到歷史最低水平，而不是過去的水平。您希望這種情況會持續到 2024 年，這有什麼結構性的嗎？或者隨著售罄趨於穩定並且經濟環境更加確定，您是否希望該渠道嘗試恢復到正常水平？就像我們能否在售罄之前開始追踪售罄的某個時間點看到補貨？就像那會發生多久？

Yes. I don't think that we're seeing or will experience a change forever more to lower days on hand. I think that this is in response to an interest rate environment, a macro economic environment that's causing carrying cost impacts that is impacted by an outlook for less discretionary purchasing in the marketplace. So I do think that for a period of time, we'll operate kind of less or lower than normal inventory levels, but I see ultimately that we'll get back to more historical days on hand. As we move through the different quarters of the year, that obviously changes how much you need. How much the channel wants on the shelf to start a season versus exiting a season are different numbers or different amounts.

是的。我不認為我們正在看到或將經歷永遠的變化，以減少手頭的工作日。我認為這是對利率環境的回應，這是一種宏觀經濟環境，它造成了持有成本的影響，而這種影響受到市場上可自由支配的採購前景的影響。所以我確實認為在一段時間內，我們的庫存水平會低於或低於正常水平，但我最終看到我們會回到更多的歷史天數。隨著一年中不同季度的推移，這顯然會改變您的需求量。頻道開始一個季節和結束一個季節想要在貨架上的數量是不同的數字或不同的數量。

So I'm not sure I'm ready to call when that could occur. I think that for the time being, we're more focused on the destock, and we'll continue to work closely with our channel partners for when those historical levels will be restored.

所以我不確定我是否準備好在這種情況發生時打電話。我認為目前，我們更關注去庫存，我們將繼續與我們的渠道合作夥伴密切合作，以確定何時恢復這些歷史水平。

Our final question comes from John Joyner of BMO.

我們的最後一個問題來自 BMO 的 John Joyner。

So on the other 4% to 5% price increase that you implemented at the beginning of the year, I guess can you remind us how much of the price increase increases from last year carried over into this year? And then with things normalizing a bit, how much of the price increases have you historically realized in similar type environments, understanding that distributors are typically receptive of price hikes?

那麼關於你們在年初實施的另外 4% 到 5% 的價格上漲，我想你能提醒我們，去年的價格上漲有多少結轉到了今年？然後隨著事情的正常化，您在類似類型的環境中歷史上實現了多少價格上漲，了解分銷商通常會接受價格上漲？

I'll start off by saying, John, that 4% to 5% which took effect in January, additive to that would be about 2% per half year wrapped from our announcement midyear of 2022. So that's what would be combined. I would just put the caveat that the contribution to revenue growth is lower given the reduced volumes in 2023. But those are the 2 pieces that go into our pricing expectation for 2023.

我首先要說，約翰，1 月份生效的 4% 到 5%，從我們宣布的 2022 年年中開始，每半年增加約 2%。這就是合併的結果。我只想警告說，鑑於 2023 年的銷量減少，對收入增長的貢獻較低。但這些是我們對 2023 年定價預期的兩個部分。

Can you repeat the last part of the question, please, John?

約翰，你能重複問題的最後一部分嗎？

Yes, Eifion. So just with regard to things kind of normalizing and how much of price increases have you historically realized in similar types of environments with fully understanding that distributors are typically receptive of price hikes, but you're putting through 4% to 5%, how much of that would you expect to actually realize? I mean I know you probably had a 4% to 5%, but what has been the norm?

是的，埃菲翁。因此，關於正常化的事情以及您在類似類型的環境中充分了解分銷商通常會接受價格上漲的歷史上實現了多少價格上漲，但您正在經歷 4% 到 5%，有多少您希望真正實現其中的哪些？我的意思是我知道你可能有 4% 到 5%，但這是常態嗎？

Yes. So we would -- based upon view of history and our analysis of history that there's never been any price kickback, John. I mean this industry has a disciplined pricing mechanism as instituted at the beginning of the seasonal year, typically October 1. It's been historically [1s or 2,] maybe slightly higher percent. This has been an unusual period over the last couple of years, but we've not seen any price pushback at this time. And nor do we expect any. Equipment tends to be at a very low cost element of the overall pool installed costs, typically 10%. As long as we can continue as an OEM to bring meaningful value-based products to the consumer, we believe price will remain very sticky as we go forward.

是的。所以我們會——根據歷史觀點和我們對歷史的分析，約翰，從來沒有任何價格回扣。我的意思是這個行業有一個紀律嚴明的定價機制，在季節性年初，通常是 10 月 1 日制定。歷史上它是 [1s 或 2，] 可能略高的百分比。在過去幾年中，這是一個不尋常的時期，但目前我們還沒有看到任何價格回落。我們也不期待任何。設備在整個水池安裝成本中的成本往往非常低，通常為 10%。只要我們能夠繼續作為 OEM 為消費者帶來有意義的基於價值的產品，我們相信在我們前進的過程中價格將保持非常粘性。

Now we do recognize that promotional campaigns and rebates maybe a little bit lighter over the preceding 2 years, that will revert to a more normal rebate of promotional activity structure in '23, but core pricing will remain sticky.

現在我們確實認識到，促銷活動和回扣在過去 2 年中可能會有所減少，這將在 23 年恢復到更正常的促銷活動結構回扣，但核心定價將保持粘性。

Thank you. And with that, we will conclude the question-and-answer portion of today's call. I would now like to hand the conference back over to Kevin Holleran for closing remarks.

謝謝。至此，我們將結束今天電話會議的問答部分。我現在想將會議交還給 Kevin Holleran 作閉幕詞。

Thank you. I'd just like to thank everyone for their interest in Hayward. Our business is very well positioned to navigate the near-term challenges and deliver value for all stakeholders in the years ahead. This would not be possible without the hard work, dedication and resilience of our employees and partners around the world.

謝謝。我只想感謝大家對海沃德的興趣。我們的業務完全有能力應對近期挑戰，並在未來幾年為所有利益相關者創造價值。如果沒有我們全球員工和合作夥伴的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和韌性，這是不可能的。

Please contact our team. If you have any follow-up questions, and we look forward to talking to you again on the first quarter earnings call. Thank you, [Danyal,] and you may now end the call.

請聯繫我們的團隊。如果您有任何後續問題，我們期待在第一季度財報電話會議上再次與您交談。謝謝你，[Danyal]，你現在可以掛斷電話了。

And with that, we will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

至此，我們將結束今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。