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Operator
Operator
Good morning. Welcome to Hasbro's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
早安.歡迎參加孩之寶2025年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議,可以立即斷開連接。
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Fred Wightman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
此時,我想把電話交給投資人關係副總裁弗雷德‧懷特曼。請繼續。
Fred Wightman - Vice President, Investor Relations
Fred Wightman - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Chris Cocks, Hasbro's Chief Executive Officer; and Gina Goetter, Hasbro's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. Today, we will begin with Chris and Gina providing commentary on the company's performance, and then we'll take your questions.
謝謝大家,大家早安。今天和我一起接受採訪的是孩之寶執行長克里斯·科克斯,以及孩之寶首席財務長兼營運長吉娜·戈特。今天,我們將首先由克里斯和吉娜對公司的業績進行評論,然後我們將回答你們的問題。
Our earnings release and presentation slides for today's call are posted on our investor website. The press release and presentation include information regarding non-GAAP adjustments and non-GAAP financial measures. Our call today will discuss certain adjusted measures, which exclude these non-GAAP adjustments. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the press release and presentation. Please note that whenever we discuss earnings per share or EPS, we are referring to earnings per diluted share.
我們的獲利報告和今天電話會議的簡報已發佈在我們的投資者網站上。新聞稿和簡報包含有關非GAAP調整和非GAAP財務指標的資訊。我們今天的電話會議將討論一些調整後的指標,這些指標不包括這些非GAAP調整。新聞稿和簡報中包含了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表。請注意,每當我們討論每股盈餘或 EPS 時,我們指的是稀釋後每股盈餘。
Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during this call and the question-and-answer session that follows, members of Hasbro management may make forward-looking statements concerning management's expectations, goals, objectives, and similar matters. There are many factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements.
在開始之前,我想提醒各位,在本次電話會議以及隨後的問答環節中,孩之寶管理層成員可能會就管理層的預期、目標、目的及類似事項發表前瞻性聲明。有許多因素可能導致實際結果或事件與這些前瞻性聲明中表達的預期結果或其他預期有重大差異。
These factors include those set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K, our most recent 10-Q, in today's press release, and in our other public disclosures. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this call.
這些因素包括我們在 10-K 表格年度報告、最新的 10-Q 表格、今天的新聞稿以及其他公開披露文件中列出的因素。我們不承擔任何義務更新今天作出的任何前瞻性聲明,以反映本次電話會議日期之後發生的事件或情況。
I'd now like to introduce Chris Cocks. Chris?
現在我來介紹克里斯·科克斯。克里斯?
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Fred, and good morning. Hasbro delivered another strong quarter in Q3, extending our growth trajectory in 2025. Net revenue and operating profit both showed robust year-over-year gains, underscoring the power of our Playing to Win strategy, which positions Hasbro as a diversified, digitally forward play company uniquely resilient in today's tariff sensitive market.
謝謝你,弗雷德,早安。孩之寶第三季業績表現強勁,延續了我們在2025年的成長動能。淨收入和營業利潤均實現了強勁的同比增長,凸顯了我們「全力以赴,贏得勝利」策略的強大實力。該策略使孩之寶成為一家多元化、數位化領先的公司,在當今對關稅敏感的市場中具有獨特的韌性。
Key drivers were MAGIC, Marvel, MONOPOLY, PEPPA PIG, Beyblade, and GI JOE. Brands exemplifying durable, diversified growth that differentiate Hasbro from traditional competitors. Year-to-date, revenue is up 7% and adjusted operating profit has increased 14%. We anticipate full year revenue growth in the high single digits and adjusted operating profit growth exceeding 20%.
主要驅動因素包括萬智牌、漫威、大富翁、小豬佩奇、戰鬥陀螺和特種部隊。展現持久、多元化成長的品牌,使孩之寶有別於傳統競爭對手。今年迄今為止,收入成長了 7%,調整後的營業利潤成長了 14%。我們預計全年營收將實現高個位數成長,調整後營業利潤成長將超過 20%。
MAGIC continues to outperform expectations, posting 40% growth year-to-date. This success is fueled by unprecedented new player acquisition and standout collaborations with brands like Spider-Man and Final Fantasy. Our Universes Beyond strategy leveraging magic steps with beloved IPs is generating extraordinary engagement. Looking ahead, we'll build on this momentum in 2026 with original MAGIC IP ses and blockbuster collaborations, including Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, The Hobbit, Star Trek, and Marvel Superheroes.
MAGIC 的表現持續超出預期,今年迄今實現了 40% 的成長。這一成功得益於前所未有的新玩家獲取量以及與蜘蛛人和最終幻想等品牌的出色合作。我們的「超越宇宙」戰略利用神奇的步驟和備受喜愛的IP,正在產生非凡的參與度。展望未來,我們將在 2026 年乘勢推出原創 MAGIC IP 系列和重磅合作項目,包括《忍者龜》、《哈比人》、《星際爭霸戰》和漫威超級英雄。
Interest indicators like event attendance, search metrics, Magic Con participation, sales in new channels like mass and convenience and player growth are all at record levels. We expect momentum to continue into the fourth quarter, fueled by upcoming MAGIC releases, including the Last Airbender and Final Fantasy's Holiday Set, alongside sustained momentum in Secret Layer and Backlist offerings.
活動參與人數、搜尋指標、Magic Con 參與度、大眾和便利商店等新通路的銷售額以及玩家成長等興趣指標均達到創紀錄水準。我們預計這股動能將延續到第四季度,這得益於即將推出的 MAGIC 系列產品,包括《最後的風之子》和《最終幻想》假日套裝,以及 Secret Layer 和 Backlist 系列產品的持續增長勢頭。
Wizards of the Coast is more than MAGIC. The refreshed 2024 additions of D&D's Monster Manual Players Handbook and DM Guide are off to the strongest ever start for D&D books. D&D Beyond's new accessible virtual tabletop has driven weekly traffic up nearly 50% since the September launch.
威世智公司不僅僅生產萬智牌。2024 年更新的《龍與地下城怪物圖鑑》、《玩家手冊》和《地下城主指南》取得了《龍與地下城》書籍有史以來最強勁的開局。自 9 月推出以來,D&D Beyond 的全新易上手虛擬桌上遊戲已使每週流量增加了近 50%。
Meanwhile, our digital licensing business, highlighted by MONOPOLY GO! and our recent launch of SORRY! WORLD with Game Berry Labs continues to outperform with both games timing mobile player charts. In digital gaming, The Game Awards in December will showcase some new announcements from Hasbro, including updates on our upcoming sci-fi RPG Exodus, further cementing our commitment to innovative digital play experiences.
同時,我們的數位授權業務,以《MONOPOLY GO! 》為代表。以及我們最近推出的 SORRY! WORLDGame Berry Labs 在兩款遊戲的行動玩家排行榜上都持續表現出色。在數位遊戲領域,12 月的遊戲大獎將展示孩之寶的一些新消息,包括即將推出的科幻角色扮演遊戲《Exodus》的最新消息,進一步鞏固我們對創新數位遊戲體驗的承諾。
Consumer products met our Q3 expectations, although retailer shifts pushed some revenue into Q4. We anticipate a solid bounce back in the fourth quarter, driven by innovation, entertainment tie-ins, and strategic partnerships. Key highlights include momentum from PEPPA PIG and Marvel's blockbuster content lineup, steady growth from Beyblade, GI JOE's rebound post supplier transition, and solid traction for new products like Nano-Mals, DJ FURBY, Baby Evie, Star Wars Kyber Forged Lightsabers, Priorities, and PLAY-DOH Barbie.
消費品業務符合我們第三季的預期,儘管零售商的變動將部分收入推至第四季。我們預計第四季將出現強勁反彈,這主要得益於創新、娛樂連動和戰略合作。主要亮點包括《小豬佩奇》和漫威大片內容帶來的強勁勢頭,《戰鬥陀螺》的穩步增長,《特種部隊》在供應商過渡後的反彈,以及《納米小精靈》、《DJ菲比》、《伊薇寶寶》、《星際大戰凱伯鍛造光劍》、《培樂多芭比》等新產品的強勁勢頭。
Retail shelf resets since late August have led to a mid-single-digit POS increase entering the holiday season and share gains Hasbro across our focus categories. We expect Consumer Products to finish the year down mid-single digits, primarily impacted by tariffs. However, because of our proactive supply chain diversification initiatives, we expect that by year-end 2026, no single country outside the US will represent more than a third of the Hasbro supply chain. Additionally, new vendor and manufacturing partnerships will unlock attractive pricing opportunities globally from bodegas in Santiago to dollar stores into Peoria, expanding our retail footprint and total addressable market significantly.
自 8 月下旬以來,零售貨架的重新調整使得孩之寶在假日季到來之際實現了中等個位數的銷售點增長,並在我們重點關注的品類中獲得了市場份額。我們預期消費品產業今年將出現個位數中段下滑,主要受關稅影響。然而,由於我們積極推行供應鏈多元化舉措,我們預計到 2026 年底,除美國以外,沒有任何一個國家在孩之寶供應鏈中所佔份額會超過三分之一。此外,新的供應商和製造商合作夥伴關係將在全球範圍內帶來極具吸引力的定價機會,從聖地牙哥的雜貨店到皮奧裡亞的一元商店,顯著擴大我們的零售範圍和潛在市場規模。
After a long turnaround effort, we expect Q4 to be the start of a long-term growth period for our toys business driven by innovation, a killer entertainment slate and new partnerships. Just this week, we announced an exciting collaboration tied to Netflix hit film KPop Demon Hunters. Product is expected to hit shelves in 2026, but for fans who can't wait preorders are already live for our MONOPOLY Deal Card game inspired by the film.
經過長期的轉型努力,我們預計第四季度將是我們玩具業務長期增長期的開始,這主要得益於創新、強大的娛樂產品陣容和新的合作夥伴關係。就在本週,我們宣布了一項與 Netflix 熱門電影《KPop Demon Hunters》相關的令人興奮的合作。該產品預計將於 2026 年上架,但對於迫不及待的粉絲來說,我們以這部電影為靈感的 MONOPOLY 交易卡遊戲的預購已經開始。
In summary, Q3 reinforces that Hasbro's Playing to Win strategy is delivering results. We're confident in our ability to sustain long-term growth through diversified digital initiatives, strategic partnerships, and resilience against external pressures.
總而言之,第三季進一步證明孩之寶的「全力以赴,力爭勝利」戰略正在取得成效。我們有信心透過多元化的數位化措施、策略合作夥伴關係以及抵禦外部壓力的能力,實現長期持續成長。
Before I close, I want to thank our incredible employees and partners around the world. Hasbro's return to growth is a direct result of your creativity, focus and belief in inspiring a lifetime of play. Now, over to Gina.
在結束演講之前,我要感謝我們遍布全球的傑出員工和合作夥伴。孩之寶重回成長軌道,直接歸功於你們的創造力、專注精神以及對激發終身玩樂的信念。現在,請吉娜發言。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Chris. And good morning, everyone. We delivered another solid quarter, outperforming expectations on revenue and profit while operating with discipline in a dynamic macro environment. Our results reflect the strength of Wizards, ongoing cost transformation and continued progress toward our 2027 profitability goals.
謝謝你,克里斯。大家早安。我們又實現了穩健的季度業績,在動態的宏觀環境下,以嚴謹的營運方式實現了營收和利潤的雙雙超出預期。我們的業績反映了 Wizards 的實力、持續的成本轉型以及我們朝著 2027 年獲利目標不斷取得的進展。
Net revenue in the third quarter was $1.4 billion, up 8% versus last year, driven by double-digit growth in Wizards and steady execution across Consumer Products. Adjusted operating profit increased 8% to $356 million with an adjusted operating margin of 25.6%, holding steady versus last year despite increased cost pressure. Adjusted earnings per diluted share were $1.68, down 3%, driven by a higher tax rate and FX impacts.
第三季淨收入為 14 億美元,比去年同期成長 8%,這主要得益於 Wizards 業務的兩位數成長以及消費品業務的穩步發展。經調整後的營業利潤成長 8% 至 3.56 億美元,經調整後的營業利潤率為 25.6%,與去年持平,儘管成本壓力增加。調整後的每股攤薄收益為 1.68 美元,下降 3%,主要原因是稅率上升和匯率波動。
Year-to-date, total Hasbro revenue is up 7% and adjusted operating profit has increased 14%, underscoring the strength of our diversified portfolio and the impact of our transformation efforts. The growth in MAGIC, coupled with sequential improvement in consumer products is fueling our overall financial performance.
今年迄今為止,孩之寶的總收入成長了 7%,調整後的營業利潤成長了 14%,這凸顯了我們多元化產品組合的實力以及我們轉型努力的影響。MAGIC 的成長,加上消費品業務的持續改善,正在推動我們整體財務表現的成長。
Turning to our segments. Wizards once again led our performance in the quarter. Revenue grew 42% to $572 million, with broad-based gains across both tabletop and digital. MAGIC revenue increased 55% to $459 million, driven by engagement with our Universes Beyond sets, our core IP Edge of Eternities as well as continued momentum across Secret Lair and backlist products. Operating profit rose 39% to $252 million, delivering an exceptional 44% operating margin, reflecting the positive benefit of scale and mix within the MAGIC portfolio.
接下來進入我們的節目環節。奇才隊再次領先本季表現。營收成長 42% 至 5.72 億美元,桌上遊戲和數位遊戲均全面成長。MAGIC 的營收成長了 55%,達到 4.59 億美元,這得益於我們 Universes Beyond 系列、核心 IP Edge of Eternities 以及 Secret Lair 和經典產品的持續成長勢頭。營業利潤成長 39% 至 2.52 億美元,營業利潤率高達 44%,這反映了 MAGIC 產品組合規模和組合帶來的正面效益。
Consumer Products navigated a complex quarter and the team demonstrated agility as we adjusted to delayed on-shelf dates from retailers, and lapped a difficult comparison last year in licensing. Revenue of $797 million was down 7% versus last year, with growth in Europe offsetting softer performance in North America. Adjusted operating profit was $89 million with an 11.2% margin compared to 15.1% last year. The margin change was driven primarily by tariff expense and unfavorable mix offset in part by productivity improvements across our supply chain and expense management.
消費品部門度過了一個複雜的季度,團隊展現出了敏捷性,能夠應對零售商延遲上架的局面,並在授權方面克服了去年難以克服的差距。營收為 7.97 億美元,比去年下降 7%,歐洲市場的成長抵消了北美市場疲軟的表現。調整後的營業利潤為 8,900 萬美元,利潤率為 11.2%,而去年同期為 15.1%。利潤率的變化主要受關稅支出和不利的產品組合影響,部分被供應鏈生產力的提高和費用管理所抵銷。
The Entertainment segment delivered revenue of $19 million, up 8% and an adjusted operating margin of 61%, which is consistent with the asset-light model we're building in the segment.
娛樂業務部門營收 1,900 萬美元,成長 8%,調整後營業利潤率為 61%,這與我們在該部門建立的輕資產模式相符。
Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA stands at $989 million, up 11% versus last year, demonstrating the combined impact of top line growth, operational excellence and disciplined investment. Year-to-date, we generated $490 million in operating cash flow, returned $294 million to shareholders via the dividend and spent $120 million on debt reduction through the combination of bond repurchases and prefunding our 2026 maturity via treasuries, a proactive step that provides flexibility while keeping us ahead of our long-term leverage targets.
今年迄今為止的調整後 EBITDA 為 9.89 億美元,比去年增長 11%,這表明收入成長、卓越營運和審慎投資的綜合影響。今年迄今為止,我們產生了 4.9 億美元的營運現金流,透過股息向股東返還了 2.94 億美元,並透過債券回購和提前購買國債來償還 2026 年到期的債務,花費了 1.2 億美元用於減少債務。這項積極主動的舉措既提供了靈活性,又使我們始終領先於長期槓桿目標。
We continue to see tangible benefits from our cost transformation efforts. Through the first nine months, we delivered approximately $150 million in realized gross savings, keeping us on track to achieve our full year target. Operational efficiencies, expense management and productivity gains across sourcing and logistics are driving strong margin performance, even as we absorb higher royalty costs at Wizards and trade-related headwinds in Consumer Products. These savings are translating directly into margin resilience and giving us the flexibility to reinvest behind our highest return growth engines.
我們持續看到成本轉型措施帶來的實際效益。前九個月,我們實現了約 1.5 億美元的實際毛節省,使我們有望實現全年目標。即使我們在 Wizards 承擔了更高的特許權使用費,並在消費品方面面臨貿易相關的阻力,但採購和物流方面的營運效率、費用管理和生產力提升仍然推動了強勁的利潤率表現。這些節省下來的成本直接轉化為利潤率的穩定性,使我們能夠靈活地將資金再投資於回報最高的成長引擎。
We're executing our tariff remediation playbook decisively mitigating risk and protecting profitability. Maintaining our assumption that the China tariff rate stays at 30% and Vietnam at 20%, we continue to expect $60 million of impact in our 2025 P&L.
我們正在果斷執行關稅補救方案,以降低風險並保障獲利能力。假設中國關稅稅率維持在 30%,越南關稅稅率維持在 20%,我們預期 2025 年的損益表將受到 6,000 萬美元的影響。
Owned inventory levels remain healthy and firmly aligned with our year-end targets. We believe we have appropriate inventory in our warehouses to fulfill the anticipated holiday build and replenishment orders. With a robust entertainment lineup scheduled for 2026, we remain laser-focused on exiting the year with clean company-owned and retail inventories.
自有庫存水準保持健康,並與我們的年終目標完全一致。我們相信,我們的倉庫庫存充足,足以滿足預期的假期生產和補貨訂單。2026 年我們已製定了強大的娛樂計劃,我們將繼續全力以赴,確保公司自有和零售庫存在今年年底前保持清潔。
We are continuing with our diversification efforts to build resiliency across the supply chain and coupling those with the incredible growth in MAGIC. By 2026, we expect approximately 30% of our total Hasbro toy and game revenue will be sourced from China and 30% of our revenue will be based in the US, as we opportunistically lean into our US manufacturing capacity.
我們正繼續推動多元化發展,以增強整個供應鏈的韌性,並將這些努力與 MAGIC 的驚人成長相結合。到 2026 年,我們預計孩之寶玩具和遊戲總收入的約 30% 將來自中國,30% 將來自美國,因為我們將抓住機會,充分利用我們在美國的製造能力。
As we enter the final quarter, our momentum remains strong, and we are raising our full year guidance. We now expect Hasbro revenue to grow high single digits with an adjusted operating margin between 22% to 23%. This results in our adjusted EBITDA increasing to approximately $1.25 billion at the midpoint.
進入最後一個季度,我們的成長勢頭依然強勁,因此我們上調了全年業績預期。我們現在預計孩之寶的收入將實現高個位數成長,調整後的營業利潤率在 22% 至 23% 之間。這將使我們的調整後 EBITDA 中位數增至約 12.5 億美元。
For Wizards, we expect full year revenue growth between 36% to 38%, with an operating margin of approximately 44%. This improved guidance reflects the MAGIC over delivery in Q3 and sustained engagement and high demand through year-end releases.
對於 Wizards,我們預計全年營收成長 36% 至 38%,營業利潤率約為 44%。這項改進的指導反映了 MAGIC 在第三季度超額完成任務,以及在年末發布期間持續的參與度和高需求。
In Consumer Products, we are holding our latest guidance and continue to expect revenue to decline 5% to 8% year-over-year with margins between 4% to 6% as productivity works to mitigate cost pressures.
在消費品領域,我們維持先前的業績指引,並繼續預期收入將年減 5% 至 8%,利潤率將在 4% 至 6% 之間,因為生產效率的提高有助於緩解成本壓力。
Our capital allocation priorities are unchanged. And with our updated outlook, we will likely achieve our 2.5 times leverage target at the end of this year. The Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share, consistent with our capital allocation priorities to return cash to shareholders.
我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變。根據我們更新後的預期,我們很可能在今年年底實現 2.5 倍槓桿率的目標。董事會已宣布派發每股 0.70 美元的季度股息,這符合我們向股東返還現金的資本配置優先事項。
We remain focused on execution and operational efficiency in our core toy business. At the same time, we're thoughtfully investing for the future with a disciplined returns-driven approach, particularly in digital gaming and with strategic partners who help bring our brands to new audiences and categories. We are on track to close the year from a position of strength, delivering profitable growth, deepening engagement in our most valuable brands, and advancing toward our long-term financial and strategic goals.
我們將繼續專注於核心玩具業務的執行和營運效率。同時,我們正以審慎的態度,採取以回報為導向的投資方式,為未來進行投資,尤其是在數位遊戲領域,並與策略夥伴攜手,幫助我們將品牌帶給新的受眾和類別。我們預計以強勁的勢頭結束今年,實現盈利增長,加深對最有價值品牌的參與度,並朝著我們的長期財務和戰略目標邁進。
And with that, I'll turn it back to the operator for questions.
這樣,我就把麥克風交還給接線員,回答他們的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.
(操作說明)梅根·克拉普,摩根士丹利。
Megan Clapp - Analyst
Megan Clapp - Analyst
Maybe Gina, I wanted to start with just ending with your comments there just on the implied 4Q outlook, at least on the EBITDA line, it does seem to be above what The Street was expecting. And from a profitability standpoint, it implies that your growth accelerates versus the third quarter. It does seem like versus the third quarter, both segments are contributing. So can you just walk through some of the puts and takes by segment as we think about 3Q versus 4Q profitability?
吉娜,我想先說說你剛才對第四季業績展望的評論,至少就 EBITDA 而言,它似乎高於華爾街的預期。從獲利能力的角度來看,這意味著你的成長速度比第三季加快了。與第三季相比,這兩個業務部門似乎都有所貢獻。那麼,在考慮第三季與第四季獲利能力時,您能否按業務板塊分別介紹一下買賣策略?
And related to that on the top line for CP. I think the guide implies flattish sort of top line growth for the fourth quarter. I think you talked about Chris, POS accelerating. So how should we think about kind of the timing of retailer ordering shifts into the fourth quarter and POS being positive in the context of what I think is a flat guide for the top line.
這與CP的頂線有關。我認為這份指引暗示第四季營收成長將基本持平。我想你之前提到過克里斯,POS機正在加速發展。那麼,在營收預期持平的情況下,我們應該如何看待零售商訂單轉移到第四季以及 POS 指標向正成長的情況呢?
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Megan, I'll start, and then I'll turn it over to Gina. I think for CP, we do expect modest revenue growth. I think toy and games will have a little bit more robust, and it will be offset by some licensing comp headwinds we have last year related to MY LITTLE PONY, which had just an amazing quarter based on MY LITTLE PONY trading cards, which has since settled into more of a run rate.
梅根,我先開始,然後交給吉娜。我認為對於CP來說,我們預計其營收將實現溫和成長。我認為玩具和遊戲業務會更強勁一些,但去年與「我的小馬駒」相關的授權競爭帶來的不利影響將會抵消這種影響。 「我的小馬駒」的集換式卡牌銷售在去年季度表現非常出色,但此後銷售速度已經趨於穩定。
We also expect Wizards is going to have a heck of a quarter as well. the early reads on Avatar: The Last Airbender looked terrific. And then we have another bite at the Final Fantasy apple with our holiday set. So overall, we're expecting pretty good top line growth and some nice operating profit growth as well.
我們也預期威世智(Wizards of the Coast)本季業績會非常出色。 《降世神通:最後的氣宗》的早期預測看起來棒極了。然後,我們又透過假日套裝再次體驗了最終幻想系列的魅力。所以總的來說,我們預計營收成長會相當不錯,營業利潤成長也會很可觀。
I'll turn it over to Gina to kind of dig into Point B, C, D, and E ofyour first question.
我將把這個問題交給吉娜,讓她深入探討你第一個問題中的 B、C、D 和 E 點。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Megan, all right. Let's start. So you're correct. Like we're raising guidance. A lot of it is driven by the strength that we're seeing play through and continue to play through really all year on MAGIC in Q3 and really firming up our outlook for Consumer Products as we move into Q4.
梅根,好的。我們開始吧。你說得對。就像我們在提高指導方針一樣。很大程度上,這是因為我們看到 MAGIC 在第三季度展現出的強勁勢頭,並且這種勢頭將持續貫穿全年,這確實鞏固了我們進入第四季度後對消費品業務的展望。
When you peel apart Wizards, the increase or the raise there is all based on revenue. So we've continued to see momentum. And as we look out at the set releases that we've got planned in Q4, coupled with -- remember, we have a holiday release this year, that drives nice revenue, it also drives leverage throughout the P&L.
當你仔細分析威世智公司時,你會發現其股價上漲或漲幅完全是基於收入的。因此,我們持續看到了成長勢頭。當我們展望第四季度計劃推出的產品時,再加上——記住,我們今年還有假日檔期產品發布,這將帶來可觀的收入,也會對整個損益表產生槓桿作用。
The one thing that we've talked about a lot -- as we came into the year on Wizards is the royalty expense. So just from a modeling standpoint, what we saw in royalty expense in Q3 will largely be the same as what we see in Q4. So the raise in Wizards is really all due to the revenue momentum that we're seeing and just the trickle on the positive benefit that, that has down the line in the P&L.
今年年初,我們一直在討論的一件事就是巫師的版稅支出。因此,僅從模型角度來看,我們在第三季度看到的特許權使用費支出將與第四季度看到的特許權使用費支出基本相同。所以 Wizards 股價上漲完全是因為我們看到的營收成長勢頭,以及由此帶來的正面影響最終會反映在損益表上。
On our CP business, to your point, a relatively flat outlook. I mean depending on which range you go, you could see us getting to some growth within the quarter. We have seen our POS momentum accelerate as we came out of Q3. We've continued to see that as we've moved here into Q4.
關於我們的CP業務,正如您所說,前景相對平穩。我的意思是,根據你選擇的區間,你可能會看到我們在本季實現一些成長。我們看到,隨著第三季的結束,我們的POS業務成長勢頭加快了。進入第四季後,我們仍然看到這種情況。
And with the whole retail order shipments, we -- many in the industry were talking about the later shelf resets that absolutely impacted Q2. We started seeing their shipments pick up in Q3. And again, we've seen that continue into Q4. So our expectations for CP as we move through kind of the holiday period is that we're going to have shipments outpacing what our POS is.
在整個零售訂單出貨過程中,我們—業內許多人都在談論後期貨架重置對第二季造成的嚴重影響。我們從第三季開始看到他們的出貨量增加。而且,這種情況一直延續到了第四季。因此,我們預計在假期期間,CP 的出貨量將超過我們的 POS 系統。
So that benefit will help, again, create some leverage within the P&L as well from a margin standpoint. Did I hit all of your points?
因此,從利潤率的角度來看,這項收益將有助於在損益表中創造一些槓桿作用。我是否涵蓋了您提出的所有要點?
Megan Clapp - Analyst
Megan Clapp - Analyst
Yeah. Thank you. A quick follow-up just on the balance sheet and capital allocation. So you said leverage target by the end of this year, free cash flow growth has been quite strong, and I think that should continue into '26. So how are you thinking about capital allocation priorities as we head into '26 with the balance sheet now at your leverage target?
是的。謝謝。關於資產負債表和資本配置,我再快速跟進。所以你說過槓桿率目標要到今年年底才能實現,自由現金流成長一直非常強勁,我認為這種情況應該會持續到 2026 年。那麼,隨著我們進入 2026 年,資產負債表目前已達到您的槓桿目標,您是如何考慮資本配置優先事項的?
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, where we sit today without getting too much into '26 guidance, unchanged priorities. We continue to, first and foremost, want to invest back into the business and invest into our growth drivers, so you'll continue to see us do that. Obviously, we have the dividend, and we're committed to the dividend.
是的,就我們目前的狀況而言,暫且不過多談2026年的指導意見,優先事項並沒有改變。我們始終將投資於業務和成長驅動因素放在首位,因此你們會繼續看到我們這樣做。顯然,我們有分紅,而且我們承諾會支付分紅。
And then lastly, we will continue to pay down debt. So we feel great that we're going to be at a point from a leverage ratio standpoint that will be at 2.5 times. We still think there's opportunities for us to bring that down even further to just create more optionality and flexibility for us as a business. So as we turn the corner to '26, we'll come back and see if any of those are changed. But for now, we're sticking with those.
最後,我們將繼續償還債務。因此,我們感到非常高興,從槓桿率的角度來看,我們將達到 2.5 倍。我們仍然認為我們有機會進一步降低成本,從而為我們的業務創造更多的選擇和靈活性。所以,當我們邁入 2026 年的時候,我們會回來看看這些情況是否有改變。但就目前而言,我們還是會堅持使用這些方案。
Operator
Operator
Arpine Kocharyan, UBS.
Arpine Kocharyan,瑞銀集團。
Arpine Kocharyan
Arpine Kocharyan
What do you think is driving this acceleration in retail POS for you and for the industry? And what are some of the indicators that you look at to decide whether this holds pull up in the next 40 days, if you compare it to sort of prior holiday seasons or what do you know about the consumer? And then I have a quick follow-up.
您認為推動零售POS系統加速發展的原因是什麼?對整個產業而言又是什麼?那麼,您會關注哪些指標來判斷這種情況能否持續下去,例如與以往的假期季節相比,或者您對消費者有哪些了解?然後我還有一個簡短的後續問題。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Arpine, sure. I think a couple of things. each product is a little different. For instance, with GI JOE, we just didn't have supply because we were going through a supplier transition for the first half of the year. And so we're in catch-up mode.
阿爾皮內,當然。我認為有兩點需要說明。每種產品都略有不同。例如,GI JOE 系列玩具,由於上半年供應商更換,我們根本沒有貨源。所以我們現在處於追趕模式。
On others, I think it has to do with just great innovation, Nano-Mals!, DJ FURBY, some of our new board games are hitting the mark and hitting what we think players want. And then still others, I think, just are kind of bull worked by fantastic brands and really strong content. Marvel in particular, is one that's really doing well this year. and we expect that to continue moving forward. TRANSFORMERS has been benefiting from that throughout the year. Even though we don't have new content this year, last year, Transformers 1 has had a nice long tail for us.
我覺得其他一些遊戲的成功,則與偉大的創新有關,例如 Nano-Mals!、DJ FURBY,我們的一些新桌遊正中下懷,滿足了我們認為玩家想要的東西。還有一些,我認為,只是因為一些優秀的品牌和非常強大的內容而顯得有些誇張而已。尤其是漫威,今年表現非常出色,我們預計這種勢頭會持續下去。《變形金剛》系列電影在這一年中一直受益於此。雖然今年我們沒有新內容,但去年的《變形金剛1》給我們留下了很長一段時間的餘熱。
So we've been pleased with it. We've been seeing acceleration in POS for probably the last seven to eight weeks. And usually, what we see in September and October is a pretty good harbinger for what's going to happen throughout the holidays.
所以我們對結果很滿意。在過去的七到八周里,我們看到了POS機銷售速度的加速。通常來說,我們在九月和十月看到的情況,可以很好地預示整個假期將會發生什麼。
Arpine Kocharyan
Arpine Kocharyan
Very helpful. And then -- sorry, go ahead. .
很有幫助。然後——抱歉,請繼續。。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
One add that I would have is on, just as you think about the overall category and pricing is a dynamic, we really haven't seen overall huge increases in ASPs. We've seen some mix shift, but not big increases in ASPs. And as you look at where the consumer could be heading and how our portfolio shapes, roughly, call it, 40% to 50% of our portfolio is priced under that $20 kind of magic price point. So as we're innovating, as we're executing with our retailers, our prices are staying in that nice zone for consumers heading into the holidays.
我想補充一點,正如你考慮到整個品類和定價是一個動態變化的過程,我們實際上還沒有看到平均售價出現大幅增長。我們看到產品組合發生了一些變化,但平均售價並沒有大幅上漲。當你觀察消費者未來的消費趨勢以及我們的投資組合組成時,你會發現,我們投資組合中大約有 40% 到 50% 的產品定價低於 20 美元這個神奇的價格點。因此,在我們不斷創新、與零售商合作的同時,我們的價格也保持在消費者假期購物季的理想範圍內。
Arpine Kocharvan - Analyst
Arpine Kocharvan - Analyst
That's very helpful. So just a quick follow-up. You have had incredible growth in MAGIC this year and will likely finish the year on a strong note. There is a bit of concern how you lap that next year. And arguably, Marvel's strength in the second half of this year has probably lagged well into the first half of next year, I would imagine. But this business is very much driven by the timing of set releases. Anything you could tell us to help think through how you let these very strong numbers from this year into 2026.
那很有幫助。還有一個後續問題。今年你在 MAGIC 方面取得了令人矚目的進步,很可能會以強勁的勢頭結束這一年。大家有點擔心你明年如何超越這個紀錄。而且可以說,漫威在今年下半年的強勁勢頭很可能已經延續到了明年上半年。但這項業務很大程度取決於影片上映的時機。您能否告訴我們一些訊息,幫助我們思考如何將今年這些強勁的數字延續到 2026 年?
And Gina, just a quick question for you. The licensing expense under MAGIC for the back half, you had raised that from $40 million range to closer to $60 million plus. Is the updated number now $70 million plus just given the outperformance in that segment?
吉娜,我有個問題想問你。MAGIC 後半段的授權費用,您已將其從 4000 萬美元左右提高到接近 6000 萬美元以上。更新後的數字超過 7000 萬美元,僅僅是因為該細分市場表現優異嗎?
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Is that -- are you talking about the digital -- MAGIC Digital?
那是——你指的是數字——MAGIC Digital嗎?
Arpine Kocharvan - Analyst
Arpine Kocharvan - Analyst
Correct. I'm talking about the royalty expense within Wizard tied to third-party IP.
正確的。我指的是 Wizard 中與第三方智慧財產權相關的版稅支出。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
The royalty expense, I see. Yes, the back half of the year was always going to be backweighted in terms of expense, just given the timing of the Universes Beyond set releases. So we had Avatar and the Spider-Man are falling in the back half of the year, whereas it was just Final Fantasy in the front half of the year.
我明白了,是版稅支出。是的,考慮到《宇宙之外》套裝的發行時間,下半年的支出必然會相對落後。所以下半年有《阿凡達》和《蜘蛛人》,而上半年只有《最終幻想》。
So that's why you see that waiting. It would be roughly call it $50 million, $60 million of royalty expense in the back half of the year. And then, of course, what we accrued in the front half. I think, total royalty expense change is $80 million year-over-year, I believe. So it's a pretty sizable step up in expense.
所以你才會看到這種等待的現象。粗略估計,下半年的特許權使用費支出約為 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。當然,還有我們在上半年所取得的成績。我認為,總版稅支出較去年同期變動為 8,000 萬美元。所以,這在費用方面是一個相當大的進步。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Arpine, in terms of your question about the underlying durability of MAGIC's growth, I think there's a couple of things going on. At the easiest level, this year, we had, call it, 6.5 sets because one of our sets was a little bit of a little bit of crossover in terms of sell-in between Q4 and Q1. Next year, we're going to have about the equivalent of seven sets. So just you're naturally going to have more content to sell, which generally is correlated with higher sales.
是的,Arpine,關於你提出的關於 MAGIC 成長的根本可持續性的問題,我認為有幾個因素在起作用。今年,最簡單的情況是,我們有 6.5 套產品,因為我們有一套產品在第四季和第一季的銷售方面略有重疊。明年,我們將擁有大約相當於七套的訓練量。所以你自然會有更多的內容可以銷售,這通常與更高的銷售額有關。
Then when you look at kind of like the momentum that we have on back list, I think we continue to see that as being kind of like a nice kind of floor for the business that will -- is continuing to raise. I mean our backlist business, I think, is 70% ahead of what it was last year already for the full year basis. And last year was a record.
然後,當你審視我們積壓的訂單數量時,我認為我們繼續將其視為業務的良好支撐,而業務將繼續增長。我的意思是,我認為,就全年而言,我們的舊書銷售業務已經比去年同期成長了 70%。去年創下了紀錄。
And then I think the last one is Universes Beyond is just working. The whole theory of the business was it's going to increase our distribution. It's going to increase our number of active players. It's going to bring in new fans that were adjacent to MAGIC and that has just worked. Like basically, every set, we've done at Universes Beyond has set records in terms of new player engagement, in terms of search queries, in terms of a number of people who are going into stores, in terms of sales in nontraditional outlets like mass and convenience stores.
然後我覺得最後一個,《宇宙之外》也挺成功的。這項業務的整個理論基礎是,它將擴大我們的分銷管道。這將增加我們的活躍玩家數量。它將吸引一些原本與萬智牌相關的新粉絲,而事實證明,這種做法非常有效。基本上,我們在 Universes Beyond 推出的每一套產品都在新玩家參與度、搜尋查詢量、實體店顧客數量以及大型超市和便利商店等非傳統通路的銷售額方面創造了記錄。
And we don't see that slowing down. If anything, I think there's a potential to accelerate it just with the quality of partners we have next year and the early reads we're getting on those partners. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Marvel Superheroes, The Hobbit, Star Trek, which for a big nerd like myself, is near and dear to my heart. I think all of those have had excellent initial reactions and bode well for continued robust sales.
而且我們看不到這種趨勢會放緩。如果有什麼變化的話,我認為明年我們擁有的合作夥伴的品質以及我們對這些合作夥伴的初步了解,都有可能加速這一進程。忍者龜、漫威超級英雄、哈比人、星際迷航,對像我這樣的大書呆子來說,這些都是我心中摯愛的事物。我認為這些產品都獲得了非常好的初步反響,預示著銷售將持續強勁成長。
Operator
Operator
Stephen Laszczyk, Goldman Sachs.
Stephen Laszczyk,高盛集團。
Stephen Laszczyk - Analyst
Stephen Laszczyk - Analyst
Maybe first on Consumer Products for Chris and Gina. Just be curious to get your latest thoughts on higher prices and just generally how they're being digested by retailers and consumers. Curious what you're seeing so far, the types of conversations you're having with retailers this fall. And if that's influencing your strategy as you look at promotional activity into the back part of the year and then maybe opportunities to take pricing if needed in 2026.
或許克里斯和吉娜會先涉足消費品領域。我很好奇您對物價上漲的最新看法,以及零售商和消費者是如何應對物價上漲的。很好奇你目前觀察到的情況,以及今年秋天你與零售商進行的對話類型。如果這影響了您在下半年開展促銷活動的策略,那麼在 2026 年,如果需要的話,或許還有機會進行價格調整。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I would say pricing so far has been relatively muted in the category. We started seeing evidence of it, like in July, August. I think you'll see more of it in September and October.
是的。我認為目前為止,該品類的定價相對來說比較穩定。我們大概在七、八月就開始看到一些跡象了。我認為在九月和十月你會看到更多這樣的情況。
We've been pretty surgical in where we've chosen to price. We've chosen to put it usually against brands that have some pretty robust content and latent demand associated with it, and trying to hit price points where we think the consumer tends to be a little less price sensitive, particularly under that kind of $15 threshold, maybe the $20 threshold. And we haven't seen a tremendous amount of elasticity so far based on the early reads.
我們在定價方面一直非常謹慎。我們選擇將其與那些擁有相當強大的內容和潛在需求的品牌進行比較,並試圖將價格定位在我們認為消費者對價格不太敏感的價位,尤其是在 15 美元或 20 美元這樣的門檻以下。根據早期數據,我們目前還沒有看到太大的彈性。
In terms of ongoing pricing, I think we just kind of have to see how the holiday goes and how the consumer holds up. Right now, I think it's really kind of a tale of two consumers, the top 20% -- particularly in the US, the top 20% of households continue to spend pretty robustly. We've got a nice fan business with them. We've got a nice trading card and gaming business with them.
至於後續定價,我認為我們只能看看假期情況以及消費者的反應了。目前,我認為這實際上是兩個消費者的故事,前 20% 的消費者——尤其是在美國,前 20% 的家庭繼續保持相當強勁的消費能力。我們和他們建立了良好的粉絲業務關係。我們和他們開展了一項不錯的集換式卡牌和遊戲業務。
The balance of households are watching their wallets a bit more, a little bit more promotional and price sensitive. And as Gina mentioned, about 50% of our items that we're selling are under that $20 price range. And we think that's going to expand as we go into 2026 with some of the new suppliers we're working with and some of the new products we're working with. So net-net, so far, so good.
其餘家庭則更精打細算,對促銷和價格更敏感。正如吉娜所提到的,我們銷售的商品中約有 50% 的價格低於 20 美元。我們認為,隨著我們與一些新的供應商合作以及推出一些新產品,進入 2026 年,這種情況將會擴大。總而言之,目前為止一切順利。
Stephen Laszczyk - Analyst
Stephen Laszczyk - Analyst
That's great. And then maybe one on 2026 around Exodus. Gina, it sounds like we're about a year from Exodus being released. I was just curious if there is any way you can maybe help investors size, the cost impact expected from the game next year, perhaps over the course of '26 and '27. I appreciate we'll probably more and more in December. But anything or any framework you could provide at the moment to help set the frame of mind looking into next year?
那太棒了。然後或許會在 2026 年左右,也就是《出埃及記》上映的時候,再推出一部。吉娜,聽起來《出埃及記》大概還有一年左右就要發行了。我只是好奇您是否能幫助投資者評估明年(可能是 2026 年和 2027 年)這款遊戲預計帶來的成本影響。我知道我們可能會在十二月越來越多地這樣做。但目前您能否提供任何建議或框架,以幫助大家更好地展望明年?
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Good question. And you're right, we'll provide more specifics when we get to December. So I'll give you some tidbits on the framing and how to think about it from an accounting standpoint without getting too deep into unit expectations.
是的。問得好。你說得對,到了十二月我們會提供更多細節。所以,我將從會計的角度給你一些關於框架以及如何思考的提示,而不會過度深入單位預期。
But when you look at our balance sheet, you'll see that line that says capitalized software, and there's roughly $350 million that's sitting on our balance sheet. This includes development costs for Exodus as well as all of the other games that are within our portfolio. So it is not just an Exodus charge. It's the entire pipeline of games that we're working on.
但當你查看我們的資產負債表時,你會看到「資本化軟體」這一行,而我們的資產負債表上大約有 3.5 億美元。這包括《出埃及記》的開發成本,以及我們旗下所有其他遊戲的開發成本。所以這不僅僅是一項出埃及記的指控。這是我們正在開發的整個遊戲系列。
And how that will come off of the balance sheet through the P&L. So as Exodus ships and we launched the units, that cost will depreciate alongside -- along with units. It will flow through our cost of goods. So that's what you'll see it will impact our gross margins. That's what you'll see it flow through.
以及這將如何從資產負債表中透過損益表體現出來。因此,隨著 Exodus 的船隻和我們發射的艦艇,成本也會跟著貶值——與艦艇數量一起貶值。這將計入我們的商品成本。所以你會看到,這將對我們的毛利率產生影響。你會看到它順著這個方向流動。
And then the other important thing to call out is because it is a product development cost, it's an input cost, it will not be an add back into EBITDA. So it will show up as a depreciation charge within cost of goods, but it's not going to be added back on an EBITDA basis.
還有一點要指出的是,因為這是產品開發成本,是投入成本,所以不會再加回 EBITDA。因此,它將作為商品成本中的折舊費用出現,但不會以 EBITDA 計算加回。
In terms of Exodus and how to think about the dollar impact, when we're modeling it out, roughly kind of rule of thumb, 65% of that development cost is going to hit in the quarter that we launched the game. And in the four quarters in that first year, roughly 85% of that development cost will have been worked through the P&L. That's right now how we're modeling it out. Obviously, as we get sharper on the absolute units and the absolute timeline for when we're going to launch, that will impact it. But that's the good rule of thumb.
就《出埃及記》以及如何考慮其美元影響而言,當我們進行建模時,根據經驗法則,大約 65% 的開發成本將在遊戲發布當季產生。在第一年的四個季度裡,大約 85% 的開發成本將透過損益表計入。目前我們就是這樣建模的。顯然,隨著我們對確切的單位和確切的發佈時間表越來越清晰,這將對發布產生影響。但這是條不錯的經驗法則。
In terms of how we're thinking about the overall expense standpoint, you've heard us talk about how AAA video games, some of them can be very, very expensive. We are not playing in that range. You've heard us talk in the previous calls that our development budgets are anywhere from, call it, $100 million if we're working with partners up to, call it, $200 million, $250 million. So that's the range of outcome in terms of absolute expense and absolute decrease that you'll see come through P&L.
從整體支出角度來看,你們也聽我們說過,AAA 級電子遊戲,其中一些可能非常非常昂貴。我們並沒有在那個範圍內比賽。你們在之前的電話會議中已經聽我們說過,我們的開發預算從,比如說,如果我們與合作夥伴合作,就高達 1 億美元,到,比如說,高達 2 億美元、2.5 億美元。所以,這就是您將在損益表中看到的絕對支出和絕對減少的結果範圍。
Now, obviously, that's the P&L impact. as we launch the game as we have the units have the revenue, there's going to be a pretty material uplift in our cash flow. So we kind of have to look at it through what's going to happen in the balance sheet, that capitalized asset comes down. P&L, the depreciation hit goes in, but then we have a nice uptick in our operating cash.
很顯然,這會對損益表產生影響。隨著遊戲的發布,隨著銷售量和收入的增加,我們的現金流將會出現相當大的提升。所以我們必須從資產負債表上的變化來看這個問題,資本化資產將會減少。損益表中,折舊損失計入,但我們的經營現金流卻出現了不錯的成長。
Does that help, Stephen?
這樣有幫助嗎,史蒂芬?
Operator
Operator
Christopher Horvers, JPMorgan.
克里斯多福‧霍弗斯,摩根大通。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Maybe talk a little bit about what the gross net headwinds from tariffs were in the third quarter. As you turn through more sales, does that dollar headwind actually worsen as you get into the fourth quarter.
或許可以稍微談談第三季關稅帶來的淨不利影響是多少。隨著銷售額的增加,進入第四季後,美元逆風是否會加劇?
And then stepping back, thinking longer term about the potential profitability of the CP business, is the expectation ultimately that you can get the tariff rate pressure back over time through pricing? Or does the long-term outlook for CP profitability change?
然後退後一步,從長遠角度考慮CP業務的潛在獲利能力,最終是否期望能夠透過定價策略逐步恢復關稅壓力?或者說,CP的長期獲利前景是否會改變?
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Got it. So the tariff pressure in Q3 was roughly, call it, $20 million-ish of cost. As we look into Q4, there's a bit more. So it's a bit of a heavier quarter, still the net impact is going to be $60 million-ish within 2025.
知道了。因此,第三季的關稅壓力大約造成了 2,000 萬美元左右的成本。展望第四季度,情況會更加複雜。所以本季負擔稍重,但到 2025 年,淨影響仍將達到 6,000 萬美元左右。
As we look into 2026, we are fully running our tariff playbook. And so as we calculate the various scenarios of where that absolute rates will play out, we're really putting all of our levers to work from how we think about pricing, how we're thinking about our product mix, how we're thinking about our supply chain, and how we're managing all of our operating expenses to mitigate and offset the impact.
展望 2026 年,我們將全面實施關稅政策方案。因此,在計算各種絕對利率可能出現的情況時,我們正在調動所有手段,包括定價策略、產品組合、供應鏈管理以及營運費用管理,以減輕和抵消其影響。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Got it. But I'm guessing just is the net headwind next year smaller than the $60 million? Or do we have to lap through something similar? I would think just based on the seasonality of the business that it would be less?
知道了。但我猜明年的淨不利因素是否會小於 6,000 萬美元?或者我們需要經歷類似的過程?我認為僅從業務的季節性因素來看,金額應該會更少吧?
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
It will be less next -- overall, for the year, the tariff cost itself will be bigger just because we'll have a full year. But the impact, we're still working through what the net kind of impact is as we put all of the levers to work. But the actual tariff cost itself obviously, with four quarters worth, we really didn't start seeing that impacted the P&L until third quarter.
明年情況會有所改善——總體而言,今年的關稅成本本身會更高,因為我們將迎來完整的一年。但是,隨著我們調動所有手段,最終會產生什麼樣的影響,我們仍在努力評估。但實際的關稅成本顯然是四個季度以來的,我們直到第三季才真正看到它對損益表產生影響。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Chris, I think as you think about the midterm in terms of CP and total company, I think as a total company, we're very confident in our operating profit guidance. Our games business is performing very well, well ahead of plan. Our licensing business continues to perform very well and frankly, at or ahead of plan. Toys were, I think, in the early innings of getting to the growth portion of the turnaround, which is great. And so from a top line perspective, I think, we feel good about the guidance we gave in February.
是的。克里斯,我認為,就公司整體而言,我們對中期業績和公司整體情況都非常有信心。我們的遊戲業務表現非常出色,遠遠超出預期。我們的授權業務持續表現非常出色,坦白說,已經達到或超越了預期目標。我認為玩具產業正處於轉型期的早期階段,進入成長階段,這非常好。因此,從總體上看,我們對二月份給予的指導意見感到滿意。
I think from a margin perspective for the CP business, if tariffs persist at a 20% and 30% range, it probably carves off a couple of points of margin from the expectations for that business, so low double digits probably becomes high single digits. If nothing changes on the tariff front and nothing changes on the nature of the business.
我認為從CP業務的利潤率角度來看,如果關稅持續在20%到30%的範圍內,可能會使該業務的預期利潤率下降幾個百分點,因此原本低兩位數的利潤率可能會變成高個位數的利潤率。如果關稅方面沒有變化,業務性質也沒有變化。
I think it's a little too early for us to call that ball for CP, we feel pretty good about the partnerships we're inking KPop Demon Hunters just being the first. That's probably one of the hottest new entertainment properties of the year. We love what's going on with Star Wars and Marvel in terms of their content and how those brands are coming roaring back. So I think we'll have a fulsome update come February when we talk about 2026 and an update to midterm.
我覺得現在就斷言CP會成功還為時過早,我們對正在達成的合作關係感到非常滿意,KPop Demon Hunters只是第一個合作項目。這可能是今年最熱門的新娛樂節目之一。我們非常喜歡《星際大戰》和漫威在內容上的發展,以及這些品牌強勢回歸的方式。所以我認為,到二月我們討論 2026 年計劃和中期考試進度時,我們會有一個全面的更新。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Got it. And then my follow-up is a follow-up to a prior question about MAGIC next year. Can you talk about how big is Final Fantasy this year? Obviously, it's played out exceptionally well and you have this holiday set.
知道了。接下來,我想問的是關於明年 MAGIC 大會的後續問題。能談談今年最終幻想系列有多火爆嗎?顯然,一切都進行得非常順利,你們也有了這套假日套裝。
And as you think about the content that you have for next year, is the strategy a little bit of like all of those UB sets combined are sort of like in aggregate become bigger? Or do you think maybe the Star Trek set, for example, could be actually bigger than Final Fantasy?
當你考慮明年的內容時,策略是不是有點像是把所有這些UB系列加起來,整體規模變得更大?或者你認為,例如,《星際爭霸戰》的佈景實際上可能會比《最終幻想》的佈景更大嗎?
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Final Fantasy is a record-breaking set. It's already the biggest set in MAGIC's history. I won't tell you which one next year will we think could rival or beat Final Fantasy, but we definitely see at least one that we think can do that.
《最終幻想》是一套破紀錄的套裝。這已經是萬智牌史上規模最大的系列了。我不會告訴你明年哪款遊戲我們認為可以與《最終幻想》匹敵甚至超越它,但我們肯定至少看到了一款我們認為能夠做到這一點的遊戲。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
That's good.
那挺好的。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's I think I'll stick it there. And then we haven't shared with you guys the content lineup that we have for 2027 and beyond, but we also feel pretty darn good about the partners we have lined up.
我想我就把它放在那裡吧。此外,我們還沒有和大家分享我們 2027 年及以後的內容計劃,但我們對已經敲定的合作夥伴也感到非常滿意。
I mean, this is a great deal for MAGIC in terms of, hey, we get access to some of the premier IP in the world. It's a great opportunity for the partners because really there's never been an opportunity for them to access the trading card business, certainly at the scale MAGIC: THE GATHERING is delivering for them. And so we pretty much have had our pick of partners. And so I think if you can conceive of a collaboration that we could do with MAGIC, we probably have inked the deal or in conversations on a deal on that.
我的意思是,這對萬智牌來說是一筆非常划算的交易,因為我們可以獲得一些世界上頂級的智慧財產權。對於合作夥伴來說,這是一個絕佳的機會,因為他們之前從未有機會進入集換式卡牌業務,更別提像萬智牌這樣大規模地為他們帶來收益了。因此,我們基本上已經可以隨意挑選合作夥伴了。所以我覺得,如果你能想到我們可以和 MAGIC 合作的方案,我們可能已經簽了合約或正在洽談合作事宜。
So I think, again, we're still at the relatively early innings of what Universes Beyond can do. I think there's upside in terms of what the sets can do in the future. And then I think that's also just going to be buoyed by a very long and lucrative back list as well, which we've been seeing play out in 2024 and definitely in 2025.
所以我覺得,我們目前還處於《宇宙超越》所能達到的相當早期的階段。我認為這些套裝在未來還有很大的發展空間。而且我認為,漫長而利潤豐厚的待映影片清單也會對此起到推動作用,我們在 2024 年和 2025 年已經看到了這一點。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
We should probably say that our owned MAGIC IP is also performing quite well.
我們應該補充一點,我們自主研發的 MAGIC IP 也表現得相當不錯。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean that's a great point. People aren't just coming in and buying Final Fantasy. People are coming in and buying Edge of Eternities. They're buying other sets. And so we've also been setting records with what we've been doing with our own sets as well. So there's a nice halo here.
是的。我的意思是,這確實是個很好的觀點。人們不會隨便進店購買最終幻想遊戲。人們正在進店購買《永恆邊緣》。他們正在購買其他套裝。所以,我們在自己的演出中也創造了不少紀錄。所以這裡有個漂亮的光環。
Operator
Operator
James Hardiman, Citi.
詹姆斯‧哈迪曼,花旗集團。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
So to that last question, Chris, I'm not going to ask you, which set you think can be kind of Fantasy, it sounds like -- but I am curious this KPop Demon Hunters press release did mention Wizards of the Coast, curious what the thoughts are there, how those two could integrate.
所以,克里斯,關於最後一個問題,我不會問你你認為哪個系列有點像奇幻題材,聽起來——但我很好奇KPop惡魔獵手的這份新聞稿提到了威世智,想知道他們對此有什麼想法,以及這兩個系列如何融合。
And then just on the margin side of Wizards, we came into the year thinking that margins would be down pretty materially. And obviously, that's not going to be the case. Any thoughts on how to think about Wizards' margins into next year and any color on the royalty piece would also be helpful.
再說奇才隊的利潤率,我們年初的時候就認為他們的利潤率會大幅下降。顯然,這種情況不會發生。對於如何看待 Wizards 明年的利潤率,以及版稅方面的情況,任何想法都將不勝感激。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. We're pretty excited about K-Pop. I remember the weekend it came out, I watched it and sent a text over to Tim, who runs our toy business. And I'm like why haven't we talked to these guys because this thing is awesome. If you look at my Spotify playlist, it looks like a 12-year-old kid. I get Soda Pop, Golden on there, along with some other stuff. So I'm pretty jazzed for KPop.
是的。我們對K-Pop非常感興趣。我記得電影上映的那個週末,我看了之後就給負責我們玩具業務的蒂姆發了一條短信。我當時就想,為什麼我們還沒跟這些人談談?因為這東西太棒了。如果你看看我的 Spotify 播放列表,你會發現它像是一個 12 歲孩子聽的。裡面有蘇打水、金牌汽水以及其他一些東西。我對K-Pop非常著迷。
We're working with Netflix. Mattel is doing basically dolls and figurines. We're basically doing just about everything else, plush, games trading cards, as you mentioned, for something like MAGIC as well as electronics and role play. So I think that's going to be a pretty lucrative license that's been -- had incredible staying power.
我們正在與 Netflix 合作。美泰公司主要生產玩偶和人偶。我們基本上什麼都做,毛絨玩具、遊戲、集換式卡牌,正如你提到的,例如萬智牌,還有電子產品和角色扮演遊戲。所以我認為這將是一個非常有利可圖的許可證,它具有驚人的持久力。
And frankly, it's just the first new partnership inside of our toys business that we're going to be really excited to share more details about over the coming couple of quarters. I think there's a lot of reasons to believe that our toy business is in the early stages of a long-term growth from entertainment to toy partnerships to new licenses. So I think that's good.
坦白說,這只是我們玩具業務中的第一個新合作關係,在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們將非常興奮地與大家分享更多細節。我認為有很多理由相信,我們的玩具業務正處於長期成長的早期階段,從娛樂到玩具合作再到新的授權。所以我認為這很好。
And on your question about MAGIC, I think MAGIC has proven that it can fit a large number of IPs. One of the best-selling Secret Lair products of all time was SpongeBob SquarePants. And if we can figure out how to get people jazzed up about SpongeBob SquarePants collectible cards, I'm pretty sure we can do it with one of the biggest movies of all time.
至於你問的 MAGIC,我認為 MAGIC 已經證明它可以容納大量的 IP 位址。Secret Lair 有史以來最暢銷的產品之一是海綿寶寶。如果我們能找到辦法讓人們對海綿寶寶收藏卡感到興奮,我相信我們也能對有史以來最賣座的電影之一做到這一點。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
And if you look at our -- the margins, we're not going to get into 2026 guides today. But we've always said that our Wizards segment is going to be in that high 30s, low 40s. If you look back over our recent history, you'll see that we're dancing around those levels over multiple years.
如果你看看我們的——利潤空間,我們今天不會推出 2026 年的指南。但我們一直都說,我們的巫師隊部分收入將在 30 多萬到 40 多萬之間。回顧我們近期的歷史,你會發現多年來我們一直在這些水平附近徘徊。
And this is where we're going to expect to run that business, and that's what we're asking our teams to deliver, even knowing that that is our growth engine. So we're going to continue to make sure that we're making the appropriate investments back into the business. But I would say, without giving guidance, we've always talked about a high 30s, low 40s Wizard segment, and that's what you should expect from us over time.
這就是我們計劃開展這項業務的地方,也是我們要求團隊交付的成果,即使我們知道這是我們的成長引擎。因此,我們將繼續確保對企業進行適當的投資。但我想說,雖然不給出具體指導,但我們一直以來都在談論 30 多歲到 40 歲出頭的 Wizard 群體,隨著時間的推移,你們應該期待我們能做到這一點。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just real quick on the inventory front, there's a lot of discussion, obviously, about shifting orders between 3Q and 4Q. Where are retailer with respect to your product versus last year? I'm assuming there's a deficit versus a year ago and that we'll ultimately sort of bridge that deficit as we make our way through the fourth quarter. So maybe speak to that a little bit.
知道了。那很有幫助。然後簡單說一下庫存方面,顯然有很多關於第三季和第四季之間訂單轉移的討論。與去年相比,零售商目前在您的產品方面處於什麼位置?我估計與去年同期相比會有缺口,但我們最終會在第四季彌補這個缺口。所以或許可以稍微談談這方面。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Our retail inventories were down kind of mid- to high teens in the US coming into fourth quarter. Our order book has accelerated versus what we've seen in previous fourth quarters. Domestic is actually doing pretty well. DI may be a little bit behind. But everything kind of augurs towards continued robust kind of replenishment from our retailers.
是的。進入第四季時,我們在美國零售市場的庫存下降了十幾個百分點。與以往第四季相比,我們的訂單量成長速度加快。國內市場其實發展得相當不錯。DI可能稍微落後了一些。但種種跡象表明,我們的零售商將繼續保持強勁的補貨勢頭。
And I think we would expect that let's use the mid-teens as kind of like the anchor point. We think retail inventories will be down by the end of the year, but if current trends persist, we probably cut that ratio in half. And that's kind of what underscores our belief that fourth quarter will be a pretty good quarter for CP.
我認為我們應該以十幾歲中期作為錨點。我們認為零售庫存到年底將會下降,但如果目前的趨勢持續下去,我們可能會將這一比例減半。這也進一步印證了我們對CP第四季業績將相當不錯的信心。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
I think this is our first quarter that we've talked about actual restocking happening as we've moved into the fourth quarter. So we're definitely seeing that. We can see that play through in our early October shipment data.
我認為這是我們進入第四季後,首次討論實際補貨的問題。所以,我們確實看到了這一點。我們可以從10月初的出貨數據看出這一點。
Operator
Operator
Alex Perry, Bank of America.
Alex Perry,美國銀行。
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Alexander Perry - Analyst
I guess as a follow-up to the last line of questioning, but more consumer products focused. Can you help us think about the building blocks for next year for the EBIT margin on the CP segment with the cost saves versus tariff impact versus potential volume leverage?
我想作為對上一個問題的後續,但更側重於消費品方面。您能否幫助我們思考一下,在成本節約、關稅影響和潛在銷售槓桿作用等因素的影響下,明年CP業務板塊的息稅前利潤率該如何構建?
And then I guess on the content side for Consumer Products, what are you most excited about next year, thinking about that?
那麼,就消費品的內容面而言,您明年最期待的是什麼呢?
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks for the question, Alex. We're not going to get too much into the building blocks for 2026 quite yet. We do think we've got some nice tailwinds as we're exiting the year that set us up nicely from a top line perspective. Obviously, we've talked about how not having top line, it creates a delev impact on the P&L. So as that flips to positive next year, that becomes a benefit for us.
謝謝你的提問,Alex。我們現在還不會過度討論 2026 年的建造要素。我們認為,隨著年底臨近,我們迎來了一些不錯的順風,從整體來看,這為我們奠定了良好的基礎。顯然,我們已經討論過,如果沒有營收,會對損益表產生怎樣的影響。所以,如果明年情況轉好,對我們來說就是好事。
We're actively working all of our levers to offset the margin impact. And we continue to stay on our -- that margin impact from tariffs, and we continue to stay on our trajectory to deliver that $1 billion of cost savings in 2027. So as we get -- obviously, the next time you talk with us in February, we'll give a lot more detail on where the kind of outlook will be for '26.
我們正積極運用所有手段來抵銷利潤率受到的影響。我們將繼續關注關稅對利潤率的影響,並繼續朝著2027年實現10億美元成本節約的目標前進。所以,很明顯,下次您在二月與我們交談時,我們會提供更多關於 2026 年前景的詳細資訊。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I mean, I think, a couple of bread crumbs that are public certainly, we are bullish on the potential of K-Pop. We've got a lot of really cool ideas. It's been fun working with Netflix on it in a fairly quick order. We already have a product that's got for sale with MONOPOLY Deal. And hopefully, we'll have a couple of preorders up for some cool items for fans before the end of the year.
我的意思是,我認為,從一些公開的跡象來看,我們確實看好 K-Pop 的潛力。我們有很多很棒的想法。與 Netflix 合作完成這個專案很有趣,而且進展相當迅速。我們已經有一款產品正在與 MONOPOLY Deal 合作銷售。希望在年底前,我們能推出幾款很棒的粉絲週邊產品的預售。
And then the content lineup that we have, particularly from the Walt Disney Company is amazing. You have Toy Story 5, which always helps to drive Mr. Potato Head sales in a big way. You have a new Star Wars movie with Grogu and the Mandalorian. You have a new Spider-Man movie, and you have The Avengers returning to film with Robert Downey Jr. in the role of Dr. Doom. I couldn't imagine a much more stacked content lineup than what we have kind of forming a tailwind for us next year.
此外,我們擁有的節目內容陣容,特別是來自華特迪士尼公司的內容,非常精彩。上映的《玩具總動員5》總是能大幅促進馬鈴薯先生的銷售。你有一部新的《星際大戰》電影,裡面有格羅古和曼達洛人。有新的蜘蛛人電影上映,還有復仇者聯盟回歸,由小勞勃道尼飾演毀滅博士。我無法想像還有比我們目前擁有的更強大的內容陣容,這將為我們明年的發展形成一股強勁的順風。
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Alexander Perry - Analyst
That's very exciting. And I guess my follow-up question is on MAGIC. And specifically, could you talk through the MAGIC growth that you're seeing in the mass channel especially how the Universes Beyond strategy sort of plays into it.
那真是太令人興奮了。我想我接下來的問題是關於魔法的。具體來說,您能否談談您在大眾通路看到的 MAGIC 成長,特別是 Universes Beyond 策略是如何融入其中的?
And I think based on some of the disclosure, the retail distribution network for Wizards continues to grow nicely. I think store count sort of up 7% sequentially versus the last quarter. Can you talk about sort of where that is coming from and where you're seeing the growth there?
根據一些揭露的資訊來看,我認為威世智的零售分銷網絡正在穩步增長。我認為門市數量較上一季成長了約 7%。您能談談這種增長的來源以及您認為這種增長來自哪裡嗎?
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So hobby store growth continues to pace. I don't think it's so much that there's more hobby stores. I think it's just more that are qualifying to become part of the Wizards' Play Network and leaning into MAGIC. And what we tend to find is when a hobby store really adopts MAGIC, it becomes a big section of a mix, and they help to propel player growth and player engagement in a positive way.
是的。因此,愛好商店的成長勢頭仍在持續。我不認為主要原因是愛好商店的數量增加了。我認為這只是更多人有資格加入威世智遊戲網絡並轉向萬智牌而已。我們往往發現,當一家愛好商店真正開始銷售萬智牌時,萬智牌就會成為商品組合中的一個重要部分,並有助於以積極的方式推動玩家數量增長和玩家參與度。
And then mass, it's just a very easy sell with mass when you go in and say, hey, here's a video game that you've sold tens of millions of copies of like Final Fantasy, there's obvious demand for it. Let's expand distribution inside of MAGIC. Or hey, here's a superhero that is beloved and everyone from two years old through adulthood wants to collect and play with like we have with Spider-Man.
至於大眾市場,當你走進市場說,嘿,這裡有一款像《最終幻想》這樣已經賣出數千萬份的電子遊戲,顯然市場對它有需求,那麼向大眾市場銷售就非常容易了。讓我們擴大 MAGIC 內部的分發範圍。或者,嘿,這裡有一個深受喜愛的超級英雄,從兩歲到成年人,每個人都想收集和玩耍,就像我們收集蜘蛛人一樣。
So that's just caused us to be able to have both incremental placements within the store, new promotion within the store as well as opening up new doors for us, especially in underserved markets for MAGIC like a lot of Europe, where we haven't had as robust of a mass offering, and we've been able to do things with the Tescos of the world and the Carrefours of the world with some pretty meaningful and enduring results.
因此,這讓我們能夠在店內增加產品陳列位置,開展新的促銷活動,並為我們打開新的大門,尤其是在 MAGIC 服務不足的市場,例如歐洲的許多地區,我們之前並沒有像現在這樣強大的大眾產品線。我們已經能夠與 Tesco 和家樂福等大型超市合作,並取得了一些非常有意義且持久的成果。
Operator
Operator
Kylie Cohu, Jefferies.
Kylie Cohu,傑富瑞集團。
Kylie Cohu - Equity Analyst
Kylie Cohu - Equity Analyst
You kind of already touched on this, but I was curious what you were seeing specifically in terms of promotional cadence. One of your peers might have said that it's intensifying heading into the holidays. Just kind of curious what you've rather seen.
你之前已經稍微提到過這一點,但我很好奇你具體觀察到了哪些促銷節奏方面的情況。你的某個同事可能說過,隨著假期臨近,這種情況會愈演愈烈。我只是有點好奇你更想看什麼。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we've been pretty choiceful with our pricing through this year. And so that's benefiting us in terms of incremental promotion opportunities with basically every major US vendor, Amazon, Walmart, and Target in particular. And so that kind of underscores some of the order growth that we think we can see and the sustainability of our point of sale for this holiday as well.
是的。所以今年我們在定價方面一直非常謹慎。因此,這為我們帶來了額外的促銷機會,基本上與所有主要的美國供應商,特別是亞馬遜、沃爾瑪和塔吉特,都有了合作。因此,這也在一定程度上突顯了我們認為能夠看到的訂單成長,以及我們假期銷售點的可持續性。
And then last year, we had some replenishment outages for things like board games that we won't be lapping this year that, again, we think will kind of help to underscore it. So as we've leaned in on trying to provide value to consumers, especially in hot categories where we're the category leader in like board games, like action figures, like compounds, the retailers have responded in kind, leaning back with us and giving us extra opportunities to share that value with consumers.
去年,我們遇到了一些補貨中斷的情況,例如棋盤遊戲,而今年我們不會再遇到這種情況了,我們認為這將有助於凸顯這一點。因此,當我們努力為消費者提供價值時,尤其是在我們處於領先地位的熱門品類,例如棋盤遊戲、動作人偶、化合物等,零售商也做出了相應的回應,與我們攜手合作,並給予我們更多機會與消費者分享這種價值。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
And I think it's a bit early to say the quality and kind of when your word intensifying because of the shelf reset and that moving back, we're really just starting to see the impact of promotions start playing through. So obviously, everyone, from a retail standpoint, they were really concentrating and all that's sitting within Q4.
我認為現在就斷言產品品質還為時過早,而且由於貨架重新擺放和商品上架,促銷活動的影響才剛開始顯現。所以很明顯,從零售的角度來看,每個人都非常關注第四季的所有事情。
Kylie Cohu - Equity Analyst
Kylie Cohu - Equity Analyst
Got you. And then I know this is kind of small potatoes, but I was curious a little bit, if you could expand on your expectations for the Entertainment segment, both in Q4 and then beyond and like steady states as well.
抓到你了。我知道這可能只是小事一樁,但我有點好奇,您能否詳細談談您對娛樂業的預期,包括第四季度及以後的業績,以及穩定期的業績。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Good question. Overall, you should expect more of the same on Entertainment. It's going to be roughly that same revenue base at roughly that, call it, 50% to 60% margin as we're moving forward.
是的。問得好。總的來說,娛樂方面的內容應該不會有太大變化。未來,收入基礎將大致保持不變,利潤率也將大致維持在 50% 到 60% 之間。
And really think about that, that is all the -- either the content that we're creating for brands like PEPPA, or it is rights that we are giving to other studios to develop our IP. The delivery of the revenue gets a little bit lumpy just because it's based on when deals are inked. But overall, that's how you should think about the mix of how it's going to play out through this year and the balance of next year.
仔細想想,這就是全部——要么是我們為像佩佩豬這樣的品牌創作的內容,要么是我們授予其他工作室開發我們知識產權的權利。由於收入的發放取決於交易的簽訂時間,因此收入的發放可能會有些不穩定。但總的來說,你應該這樣看待今年以及明年剩餘時間各種因素交織在一起的影響。
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think we think of entertainment as a long-term brand development pipeline. There's some revenue associated with it. It kind of -- it's advertising that pays for itself with fantastic content partners. And I think at last count, we have something like 45, maybe 50 shows and movies and reality TV offerings in development across a range of partners.
是的。我認為我們應該把娛樂視為一個長期的品牌發展管道。這其中蘊含著一些效益。它有點像——這是一種透過與優秀的內容合作夥伴合作來實現自身盈利的廣告形式。根據我最新統計,我們與眾多合作夥伴正在開發約 45 到 50 個電視節目、電影和真人秀節目。
And we work with the best of the best. We're working with Paramount, Warner Bros, Netflix, Universal, Disney, you name it, Lionsgate. So we'll have more to share on that as those kind of deals matriculate we tend to not announce like a development deal. We tend to wait until it's actually in production. So those are starting to kind of go through. And probably in 2026, there will be a lot more to share.
我們與業界最優秀的人才合作。我們正在與派拉蒙、華納兄弟、Netflix、環球影業、迪士尼、獅門影業等眾多公司合作。所以,隨著這類交易的逐步落實,我們會分享更多相關信息,而我們通常不會像宣布開發協議那樣提前公佈。我們通常會等到它真正投入生產後再做決定。所以這些事情開始慢慢推進了。或許到了 2026 年,會有更多內容可以分享。
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
But we're going to continue with the asset-light model. That's why you're going to see just a high margin within that segment moving forward.
但我們會繼續採用輕資產模式。這就是為什麼未來該細分市場的利潤率會很高的原因。
Operator
Operator
Jaime Katz, Morningstar Research.
Jaime Katz,晨星研究公司。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
I was hoping to touch on product development spend. It has stepped up a little bit in 2025. But I think given everything that you guys have had about content and innovation coming on, can we think about this saying sort of structurally higher than it maybe has been in the past?
我原本想談談產品開發支出方面的問題。2025年情況有所改善。但考慮到你們在內容和創新方面所取得的成就,我認為我們可以把這句話的結構地位提升到比過去更高的層次嗎?
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Gina Goetter - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. I mean, you hit on it. The increase or the step up that you're seeing is largely driven by Wizards and digital. There's some this year within toys just as we've kind of revamped our innovation pipeline as we started going out, you've heard us talk about K-Pop and securing some of these new licenses, but the bulk of the uptick has been within Wizards.
是的。我的意思是,你一語中的。你現在看到的成長或提升主要由威世智和數位化驅動。今年玩具領域也有一些成長,正如我們開始調整創新流程一樣,你們也聽到我們談論過 K-Pop 以及獲得一些新的授權,但大部分成長都來自 Wizards。
As we look into next year and kind of -- we're probably at that right watermark level, like we've been slowly increasing that cost over time. And we're probably in that zone as we think about next year.
展望明年,我們可能已經達到了一個合適的臨界點,就像我們一直在隨著時間的推移緩慢地增加成本一樣。而當我們思考明年的時候,我們可能也處於這種狀態。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Okay. And then D&D hasn't really been discussed, but there's obviously a little bit more emphasis on the brand as you guys expand into more space. Can you just maybe help us think about what the long-term growth prognosis is for D&D relative to MAGIC or maybe what incrementally it might add to Wizards of the Coast over time?
好的。雖然還沒有真正討論過《龍與地下城》,但隨著你們業務拓展到更大的領域,顯然對這個品牌的重視程度也更高了。您能否幫我們思考一下,相對於萬智牌,龍與地下城(D&D)的長期成長前景如何?或者隨著時間的推移,它可能會為威世智(Wizards of the Coast)帶來哪些逐步成長?
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Christian Cocks - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So I think the big thing for D&D is going to be digital games. We have several games in development. We're working with some fantastic creators in that space. And again, like I said, for entertainment, we tend to be a little gun shy talking about projects too early. But very likely, over the next, call it, couple of quarters, you're going to start to see more of our digital ambitions come to life with D&D and understand some of the things we have in development.
是的。所以我認為,對《龍與地下城》來說,最大的發展方向將是電子遊戲。我們正在開發多款遊戲。我們正在與該領域的一些傑出創作者合作。再說一遍,就像我之前說的,對於娛樂項目,我們往往不太願意過早地談論它們。但很可能在接下來的幾個季度裡,你會開始看到我們更多的數位化願景透過 D&D 變成現實,並了解我們正在開發的一些東西。
And I think they're going to be pretty exciting. Baldur's Gate 3 was a seminal project. I think it really showed that if we build something that's great, consumers will come. And so there's probably five projects in development for DUNGEONS & DRAGONS across our portfolio, ranging from more casual and kid-oriented to very high-end action adventure and role-playing games. And that's in addition to a continued focus on building out kind of the core business, the core TRPG with a special emphasis on D&D Beyond as kind of like the best place to play a TRPG.
我覺得它們會非常精彩。《博德之門3》是個具有開創性的計畫。我認為這充分說明,如果我們打造出優秀的產品,消費者自然會來。因此,我們旗下大概有五個《龍與地下城》項目正在開發中,涵蓋了從休閒和麵向兒童的遊戲到非常高端的動作冒險和角色扮演遊戲。此外,我們也將繼續專注於發展核心業務,即核心 TRPG,並特別重視 D&D Beyond,將其打造為玩 TRPG 的最佳場所。
Operator
Operator
With no further questions, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
女士們、先生們,沒有其他問題了,感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。請斷開線路,祝您有美好的一天。