GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the GXO first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. My name is Morgan, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. Before the call begins, let me read a brief statement on behalf of the company regarding forward-looking statements, the use of non-GAAP financial measures and the company's guidance.

歡迎參加 GXO 2025 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我叫摩根，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。在電話會議開始之前，請允許我代表公司宣讀一份關於前瞻性陳述、非公認會計準則財務指標的使用以及公司指導的簡短聲明。

During this call, the company will be making certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings.

在本次電話會議中，本公司將根據適用證券法做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述本質上涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

The forward-looking statements in the company's earnings release or made on this call are made only as of today, and the company has no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements, except to the extent required by law. The company also may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under applicable SEC rules during this call. Reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures, the most comparable GAAP measures are contained in the company's earnings release and the related financial tables that are on its website.

公司收益報告或本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今天為止，本公司沒有義務更新任何這些前瞻性陳述，除非法律要求。本公司也可能在本次電話會議中引用適用的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 規則所定義的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。此類非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表、最具可比性的 GAAP 指標均包含在本公司的收益報告及其網站上的相關財務表中。

Unless otherwise stated, all results reported on this call are reported in United States dollars. The company will also remind you that guidance incorporates business trends to date and what it believes today to be appropriate assumptions.

除非另有說明，本次電話會議報告的所有結果均以美元報告。該公司還會提醒您，指導意見包含了迄今為止的業務趨勢以及該公司目前認為合適的假設。

The company's results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in global economic conditions and consumer demand and spending, labor market and global supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures and the various factors detailed in its filings with the SEC.

該公司的業績本質上是不可預測的，可能受到許多因素的重大影響，包括外匯匯率波動、全球經濟狀況和消費者需求與支出的變化、勞動力市場和全球供應鏈限制、通膨壓力以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的各種因素。

It is not possible for the company to actually predict demand for its services, and therefore, actual results could differ materially from guidance. You can find a copy of the company's earnings release, which contains additional important information regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in the Investors section on the company's website.

該公司無法真正預測其服務的需求，因此實際結果可能與指導結果有重大差異。您可以在公司網站的「投資者」部分找到公司收益報告的副本，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標的其他重要資訊。

I will now turn the call over to GXO's Chief Executive Officer, Malcolm Wilson. Mr. Wilson, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給 GXO 執行長 Malcolm Wilson。威爾遜先生，你可以開始了。

Thanks, Morgan, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today for our first quarter 2025 earnings call. With me in Greenwich are Baris Oran, our Chief Financial Officer; and Kristine Kubacki, our Chief Strategy Officer.

謝謝，摩根，大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。和我一起在格林威治的還有我們的財務長 Baris Oran；以及我們的首席策略長 Kristine Kubacki。

For the first quarter of 2025, GXO delivered a strong set of results against the dynamic macro backdrop. We generated revenue of $3 billion, which was up 21% year-over-year, and we beat expectations on adjusted EBITDA. Our new business wins in the quarter were $228 million, and our sales pipeline, excluding Wincanton, grew to a three-year high of $2.5 billion. I'd especially like to highlight the progress we've made in developing our business in the health care sector.

2025 年第一季度，GXO 在動態的宏觀背景下取得了強勁的業績。我們創造了 30 億美元的收入，年增 21%，調整後的 EBITDA 超出了預期。我們在本季獲得的新業務價值為 2.28 億美元，不包括 Wincanton 的銷售管道價值增長至三年來的最高水平，為 25 億美元。我特別想強調我們在醫療保健領域業務發展方面所取得的進展。

We finalized a landmark deal with the UK National Health Services supply chain. This is our largest ever contract and carries a total lifetime value of about $2.5 billion. We'll commence operations for the NHS early in the third quarter. We've also recently signed other exciting health care contract, most notably with Siemens Healthineers and we have a rapidly growing pipeline of opportunities in the space.

我們與英國國家醫療服務體系供應鏈達成了一項具有里程碑意義的協議。這是我們迄今為止最大的合同，總價值約為 25 億美元。我們將在第三季初開始為 NHS 開展營運。我們最近還簽署了其他令人興奮的醫療保健合同，最著名的是與西門子醫療的合同，我們在該領域擁有快速增長的機會。

Our success in developing our health care business is a direct result of our acquisition of Clipper Logistics which brought with it strong relationships within the sector, and it's proof positive that our M&A strategy to target companies in growth verticals is working. We expect to make similar progress in target verticals like aerospace and defense and industrial, starting with our European business as a result of our integration of Wincanton. The Wincanton business is trading well and performing as expected.

我們在發展醫療保健業務方面取得的成功直接歸功於我們收購了 Clipper Logistics，這為我們帶來了業內的強大關係，也充分證明了我們針對垂直成長型公司的併購策略正在發揮作用。我們期望在航空航太、國防和工業等目標垂直領域取得類似的進展，首先從我們整合 Wincanton 後的歐洲業務開始。Wincanton 業務經營良好，表現符合預期。

We're very pleased to be nearing the conclusion of the CMA process, and we expect that over the coming couple of months, we'll be able to start bringing the two businesses together and realizing our target $58 million of cost synergies. We also continue to grow with our existing customer base. Feedback from our customer interviews reflects that our customer satisfaction has risen nearly 10% since last year, which supports our continuing growth.

我們非常高興 CMA 流程即將結束，我們預計在未來幾個月內，我們將能夠開始將兩家公司整合在一起，實現 5,800 萬美元的成本綜效目標。我們現有的客戶群也將持續擴大。從客戶訪談回饋來看，我們的客戶滿意度自去年以來上升了近 10%，這支持了我們的持續成長。

New business signed with existing customers has increased year-over-year, and we expanded our relationships with Boeing, Kimberly Clark, Mitsubishi and Schneider Electric. Our sales pipeline, excluding Wincanton is up 13% from last year. Our pipeline is diversified across our regions and verticals, which sets us up for a balanced growth and reinforces the resilience of our business model.

與現有客戶簽訂的新業務年增，我們擴大了與波音、金佰利、三菱和施耐德電機的關係。我們的銷售管道（不包括 Wincanton）比去年成長了 13%。我們的產品線遍佈各個地區和垂直產業，這為我們實現了均衡成長，並增強了我們商業模式的彈性。

Before I pass the mic to Baris to walk you through our detailed financials for the quarter, I'd like to touch on our outlook for the remainder of 2025. We're operating in an environment that demands unprecedented agility from global supply chains. The structural tailwinds of outsourcing, automation and e-commerce continue to drive our industry's growth, illustrating that need for our solutions is more important than ever.

在我將麥克風交給巴里斯向您介紹本季度的詳細財務狀況之前，我想談談我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的展望。我們處在一個要求全球供應鏈具有前所未有的彈性的環境中。外包、自動化和電子商務的結構性順風繼續推動我們行業的成長，表明對我們的解決方案的需求比以往任何時候都更加重要。

For the first quarter, 41% of our new wins are in newly outsourced business, 39% involve automation and 42% come from e-commerce. On top of this, the complexity related to potential tariffs has created a new array of challenges for our customers, including rising costs and need to rapidly react to changing prices and fluctuating inventory levels.

第一季度，我們41%的新業務來自新外包業務，39%涉及自動化，42%來自電子商務。除此之外，與潛在關稅相關的複雜性給我們的客戶帶來了一系列新的挑戰，包括成本上升以及需要對價格變化和庫存水平波動做出快速反應。

Our customers are managing through this, while most importantly of all, continuing to serve were customers seamlessly. The range of activities we're undertaking to support our customers in this environment is evolving in real time and includes everything from strategic reviews of how to manage volatility, to value-added services like retagging and rebagging millions of SKUs that are already in circulation.

我們的客戶正在應對這種情況，同時最重要的是，繼續為客戶提供無縫服務。在這種環境下，我們為支援客戶而採取的一系列活動都在即時演變，包括從如何管理波動性的策略評估到對已在流通的數百萬個 SKU 進行重新標記和重新包裝等增值服務。

And in parallel, we're still innovating. We're making rapid progress towards our vision of the tech-enabled warehouse, which Kristine will update you on in a moment. In a world with increasing complex trade dynamics, the need for brands all over the world to rely on a partner who can help them navigate the global supply chain cost effectively has never been higher.

同時，我們仍在不斷創新。我們正在快速推進科技型倉庫​​的願景，克里斯汀稍後會向您通報最新進展。在貿易動態日益複雜的世界中，世界各地的品牌對能夠幫助他們以經濟的方式駕馭全球供應鏈的合作夥伴的需求從未如此高漲。

GXO's combination of cutting-edge technology and our long-term contractual business model with a customer base that's diversified by both geography and vertical give us confidence in our long-term growth. We've secured over $700 million of incremental revenue for 2025 plus another $300 million already for 2026.

GXO 將尖端技術與我們的長期合約業務模式相結合，並擁有按地理和垂直方向多樣化的客戶群，這使我們對長期成長充滿信心。我們已確保 2025 年的增量收入超過 7 億美元，另外也確保 2026 年的增量收入為 3 億美元。

We've delivered a strong first quarter and taking into account the volatility of the macroeconomic environment, the contractual nature of our business and our diverse geographical footprint, we're reaffirming our guidance -- our organic growth and adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025.

我們第一季業績表現強勁，考慮到宏觀經濟環境的波動性、我們業務的合約性質以及我們多樣化的地理分佈，我們重申了我們的指導方針——2025 年全年的有機增長和調整後的 EBITDA。

And with that, I'll pass you over to Baris. Baris, over to you.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給巴里斯。巴里斯，交給你了。

Thanks, Malcolm. Good morning, everyone. As Malcolm said, in the first quarter of 2025, GXO delivered revenue of $3 billion, growing 21% year-over-year, of which 3% was organic. All three of our regions delivered organic growth led by our Continental European business. We already have an established foothold in many of our global customers who are looking into expand in Europe over the coming years.

謝謝，馬爾科姆。大家早安。正如馬爾科姆所說，2025 年第一季度，GXO 實現了 30 億美元的收入，年增 21%，其中 3% 為有機成長。我們三個地區均實現了有機成長，以歐洲大陸業務為主導。我們已經在許多全球客戶中站穩了腳跟，他們正在考慮未來幾年在歐洲擴張。

And we see more momentum in this region than we did just a year ago. As Malcolm mentioned, we are also excited by our progress in newer geographies like Germany and newer verticals like health care. We are pleased that our M&A strategy is working. Our first quarter adjusted EBITDA was $163 million.

我們看到該地區的發展勢頭比一年前更加強勁。正如馬爾科姆所提到的，我們也對在德國等新興地區和醫療保健等新興垂直領域的進展感到興奮。我們很高興我們的併購策略正在發揮作用。我們第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.63 億美元。

Our strong operating results were primarily driven by a faster-than-anticipated ramp-up of new facilities and of site level productivity initiatives. We recorded a net loss of $95 million, which was primarily driven by onetime charge related to a regulatory matter as well as transaction and restructuring costs.

我們強勁的經營業績主要得益於新設施和站點級生產力計劃比預期更快的成長。我們錄得 9,500 萬美元的淨虧損，主要原因是與監管事宜相關的一次性費用以及交易和重組成本。

Excluding these charges, our adjusted net income was $34 million. As we highlighted earlier, our operational teams are implementing a number of sizable automated start-ups. These new sites are maturing ahead of expectations. We are also working on a number of initiatives to improve operating productivity across our sites. These efforts have been one of the main drivers of our strong operating results in the first quarter.

除去這些費用，我們的調整後淨收入為 3,400 萬美元。正如我們之前所強調的那樣，我們的營運團隊正在實施一些規模可觀的自動化啟動專案。這些新站點的成熟度超出了預期。我們也正在採取多項措施來提高我們各個站點的營運效率。這些努力是我們第一季強勁經營業績的主要動力之一。

We expect to see their impact accelerate sequentially every quarter of this year as in parallel, the drag from the customer footprint realignments that we have called out last quarter are moderating into the second quarter, which improves our visibility. And our integration of Wincanton, they will provide another catalyst for group adjusted EBITDA growth.

我們預計，它們的影響將在今年每季逐季加速，同時，我們上個季度指出的客戶足跡調整帶來的拖累將在第二季度得到緩解，從而提高我們的可見度。我們對 Wincanton 的整合將為集團調整後的 EBITDA 成長提供另一個催化劑。

Our first quarter free cash flow reflected normal seasonality as well as the Wincanton acquisition. We are on track to deliver our target of 25% to 35% adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion for the full year. Our operating return on invested capital remains well above our target at 45%, including Wincanton and has risen 12 percentage points from the first quarter of 2024. This improvement demonstrates our ability to invest back into our business at high returns.

我們第一季的自由現金流反映了正常的季節性以及 Wincanton 收購。我們預計將實現全年調整後 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流量率 25% 至 35% 的目標。我們的投資資本營運回報率仍遠高於我們的目標 45%，包括 Wincanton 在內的回報率比 2024 年第一季上升了 12 個百分點。這項改進表明我們有能力以高回報重新投資於我們的業務。

In February, our Board authorized a $500 million share buyback, and during the quarter, we acted on this authorization and made strategic purchases of 2.8 million shares or 2.4% of shares outstanding. We remain laser focused on our capital allocation and continue to prioritize investments in technologies and services that drive the greatest returns. As our focus in 2025 will be on accelerating our organic growth and the integration of Wincanton. We would like to reiterate that M&A is not in our near-term agenda.

今年 2 月，我們的董事會批准了 5 億美元的股票回購，在本季度，我們根據這項授權採取了行動，策略性地購買了 280 萬股股票，佔流通股的 2.4%。我們始終專注於資本配置，並持續優先投資能帶來最大回報的技術和服務。因為我們 2025 年的重點將放在加速我們的有機成長和 Wincanton 的整合。我們想重申，併購不在我們的近期議程之內。

As a reminder, for 2025, we continue to expect to deliver organic revenue growth of 3% to 6%, adjusted EBITDA of $840 million to $860 million, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.40 to $2.60, and adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion of 25% to 35% in line with our historical performance.

提醒一下，對於 2025 年，我們仍然預計有機收入增長 3% 至 6%，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.4 億美元至 8.6 億美元，調整後每股攤薄收益為 2.40 美元至 2.60 美元，調整後 EBITDA 至自由現金流轉化率為 25% 至 35%，與我們的歷史業績一致。

We are able to deliver these results in spite of the macro volatility as a result of our geographic diversification and our long-term contractual business model, which is designed to provide the maximum flexibility for our customers while protecting GXO from economic fluctuations that are outside of our control. GXO is a resilient business. As we have proven over the last four years is a public company, and we are well positioned to deliver value for our customers and our shareholders.

儘管存在宏觀波動，我們仍能夠實現這些業績，這得益於我們的地域多元化和長期合約業務模式，該模式旨在為我們的客戶提供最大的靈活性，同時保護 GXO 免受我們無法控制的經濟波動的影響。GXO 是一家富有韌性的企業。正如我們在過去四年中所證明的那樣，我們是一家上市公司，我們有能力為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

With that, I'll pass the mic to Kristine. Kristine, over to you.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給克莉絲汀。克里斯汀，交給你了。

Thanks, Baris. Good morning, everyone. We're pleased with our results for the first quarter of 2025, and we're even more energized by the transformative opportunities that lie ahead. As Malcolm mentioned, even as we expand our offerings to support our customers through the dynamic global trade environment, we remain focused on our mission to build the supply chain of the future.

謝謝，巴里斯。大家早安。我們對 2025 年第一季的業績感到滿意，並對未來的變革機會充滿信心。正如馬爾科姆所提到的，即使我們擴大產品範圍以在動態的全球貿易環境中為客戶提供支持，我們仍然專注於建立未來供應鏈的使命。

Today, I'd like to update you on the exciting progress we're making with AI and other cutting-edge technologies. Over the past year, we've been piloting and launching our AI modules for proactive replenishment, SKU dimensioning and order routing. And we now have over 20 implementations live in our operations. These tools have been driving record-setting productivity improvements in stock replenishment, order allocation and item inspection.

今天，我想向大家介紹我們在人工智慧和其他尖端技術方面取得的令人興奮的進展。在過去的一年裡，我們一直在試行和推出用於主動補貨、SKU 尺寸測量和訂單路由的 AI 模組。現在，我們的營運中已經實施了 20 多項措施。這些工具一直在推動庫存補充、訂單分配和物品檢查方面創紀錄的生產力提高。

In the first quarter of 2025, as our implementations have matured, we've now seen our first cost savings resulting from these tools. These cost savings will ramp up over the course of 2025 in tandem with the other site level productivities Baris mentioned a few moments ago.

2025 年第一季度，隨著我們的實施日趨成熟，我們現在已經看到了這些工具帶來的首次成本節約。這些成本節省將在 2025 年期間隨著 Baris 剛才提到的其他站點級生產力的提高而增加。

We're also identifying opportunities to leverage the capabilities of these tools to bring value to our customers in new ways. Reverse logistics is one of the most congested and complex processes in fulfillment. And our focus on debottlenecking product flow is key to our AI strategy.

我們也正在尋找機會利用這些工具的功能以新的方式為我們的客戶帶來價值。逆向物流是履行過程中最擁擠、最複雜的流程之一。我們對消除產品流程瓶頸的關注是我們人工智慧策略的關鍵。

In a European operation for a leading apparel brand, we're working on adapting our proactive replenishment capabilities into a tool that minimizes the number of touches required to process a return products. We'll keep you posted on our progress on our AI rollout over the coming months.

在一家領先服裝品牌的歐洲營運中，我們正在努力將我們的主動補貨功能調整為一種工具，以最大限度地減少處理退貨產品所需的接觸次數。我們將在未來幾個月內向您通報我們在人工智慧推廣方面的進展。

Beyond AI, we continue to lead the market in cutting-edge technology. A few other areas of focus for us in 2025 include automation for, inbound unloading, humanoid development for multiple use cases and inventory cycle counting, which is a critical but traditionally manual and extremely time-consuming process. Through our operational incubator program, we've leveraged an emerging technology solution that has enabled us to increase the frequency of a warehouse inventory count from a quarterly process that's done manually to a fully automated process that occurs every day.

除了人工智慧之外，我們也繼續在尖端技術領域引領市場。2025 年我們將重點關注的其他幾個領域包括自動化、入庫卸貨、多種用例的人形開發和庫存循環盤點，這是一個關鍵但傳統上手動且極其耗時的過程。透過我們的營運孵化器計劃，我們利用了新興的技術解決方案，使我們能夠將倉庫庫存盤點的頻率從每季手動完成的流程提高到每天進行的全自動流程。

GXO is the market leader in tech-enabled fulfillment and our long-time focus on technology gives us a particular advantage in the current environment. Beyond driving operational efficiencies, our tech leadership equips us with the ability to rapidly adjust to volume fluctuations and support our customers through shifting trade patterns.

GXO 是技術支援履行領域的市場領導者，我們長期專注於技術，這使我們在當前環境中具有特殊優勢。除了提高營運效率之外，我們的技術領導地位還使我們能夠快速適應交易量波動並透過轉變貿易模式為客戶提供支援。

As tariff considerations prompt many of our customers to examine their fulfillment costs and capabilities, GXO's automation advantage positions us as a partner of choice to navigate this complexity. We'll keep you posted as we continue to build on the supply chain of the future.

由於關稅考量促使我們的許多客戶審查其履行成本和能力，GXO 的自動化優勢使我們成為解決此複雜問題的首選合作夥伴。我們將持續建立未來的供應鏈，並隨時向您通報最新進展。

And with that, I'll pass it back to Malcolm.

說完這些，我就把它交還給馬爾科姆。

Thanks, Kristine. We've delivered a strong quarter, supported our customers' changing needs against the dynamic macro backdrop and continue to sharpen our advantage as the leader in tech-enabled fulfillment. I'd like to note that we're able to deliver these results, not merely in spite of the macro volatility but because the level of support we're able to offer to our customers becomes even more critical during uncertain economic periods.

謝謝，克里斯汀。我們本季表現強勁，在動態的宏觀背景下滿足了客戶不斷變化的需求，並繼續鞏固我們作為技術支援履行領域的領導者的優勢。我想指出的是，我們之所以能夠取得這些成果，不僅是因為宏觀經濟波動，還因為我們能夠為客戶提供的支持程度在經濟不確定時期變得更加重要。

Our long-term contractual business model and geographic diversification provides both stability and growth opportunities in spite of macro volatility. We are not just the resilient business, but a partner who helps leading brands all over the world to navigate complexity.

儘管宏觀經濟波動，我們的長期合約業務模式和地理多樣化仍提供了穩定性和成長機會。我們不僅是一家具有韌性的企業，也是幫助全球領先品牌應對複雜局面的合作夥伴。

I'd also like to highlight our pride that in the first quarter of 2025, GXO was named to the Forbes Diamond list in Poland and listed as a top 500 employer in the UK by the Financial Time. We were also a supplier of the year by DuPont with whom we have had 20-year business partnership.

我還要強調的是，我們感到自豪的是，2025 年第一季度，GXO 入選波蘭《富比士》鑽石榜，並被《金融時報》列為英國 500 強雇主之一。我們也是杜邦公司的年度供應商，我們與杜邦公司有著 20 年的業務合作關係。

Our results, customer satisfaction and operational performance continue to set GXO apart and our contractual business model, industry-leading automation and global footprint reinforce our confidence in our long-term future.

我們的業績、客戶滿意度和營運績效繼續使 GXO 脫穎而出，而我們的合約業務模式、業界領先的自動化和全球影響力增強了我們對長期未來的信心。

And with that, we'll hand the mic back to Morgan for Q&A.

接下來，我們將把麥克風交還給摩根進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good morning, everyone, And congrats on the great results. This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie Moore. Baris, I think this question maybe goes to you. I wanted to talk a little bit about the guide. I guess, could you maybe unpack for us maybe the scenario planning that you've done under the surface that gives you the confidence to reaffirm the guidance here in the context of this uncertain macro? And also, with the really strong 1Q results. So maybe the puts and takes of how you're thinking about the guide?

大家早安，恭喜你們取得優異的成績。喬·哈夫林 (Joe Hafling) 為斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 主持節目。巴里斯，我想這個問題也許應該由你來回答。我想稍微談一下該指南。我想，您能否為我們解釋一下您在幕後所做的情景規劃，讓您有信心在這種不確定的宏觀背景下重申這一指導？此外，第一季的業績也十分強勁。那麼，也許您對該指南有何看法？

Sure. Right now, our business is trading well in a dynamic environment, and the base case for our guidance is flat volumes year-over-year in 2025. Should we see a softer environment in the US economy? We estimate that we would still land within our narrow guidance range for 2025.

當然。目前，我們的業務在動態環境中發展良好，我們預期的基本情況是 2025 年的銷售量與去年同期持平。我們是否應該看到美國經濟環境變得更加疲軟？我們估計，2025 年我們仍將處於我們狹窄的指導範圍內。

To be specific, even if we were to see our second half volume in our consumer-facing business in the US declined by, let's say, low to mid-single digits, we will still be forecasting to be within this EBITDA guidance range. So we're pretty comfortable with the guidance we provided.

具體來說，即使我們下半年在美國面向消費者的業務量下降，比如說，低到中等個位數，我們仍然預測會在這個 EBITDA 指導範圍內。因此，我們對所提供的指導非常滿意。

Got it. And then maybe a little bit nitpicky, three months ago, the US dollar was rallying and since that time, we've seen the pound and euro appreciate versus the dollar. I guess how should we think about the impact of FX on your results in 2025? How much is hedged? And maybe what does this mean for 2026 if FX rate cold where they are?

知道了。然後可能有點吹毛求疵，三個月前，美元開始上漲，從那時起，我們看到英鎊和歐元兌美元升值。我想我們該如何看待外匯對 2025 年業績的影響？對沖了多少？如果外匯匯率處於目前的低位，這對 2026 年又意味著什麼？

FX will be a tailwind for us in 2026. Definitely, we will see an improvement if the current rates would say. For Q2, we were pretty much fully hedged for Q2 of 2025. For Q3, we're about 3/4. The protection that we acquired was around 1.07, 1.08 for euro and 1.26, 1.29 for pound. And we don't have a crystal ball where the currencies will go. The impact will -- for '25, Q2 and onwards will be limited, and we will see more upside in '26.

2026 年，FX 將成為我們的順風。毫無疑問，如果按照目前的利率，我們將看到改善。對於第二季度，我們幾乎完全對沖了 2025 年第二季度的損失。對於第三季度，我們大約是 3/4。我們獲得的保護是歐元約為 1.07、1.08，英鎊約為 1.26、1.29。我們也沒有水晶球可以預測貨幣的走向。對於 25 年第二季及以後的影響將是有限的，我們將在 26 年看到更多的上行空間。

Great. That's all very helpful. And congrats again on the good first quarter.

偉大的。這一切都非常有幫助。再次恭喜第一季取得良好業績。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. First, I wanted to ask about the NHS deal. Maybe you can go into a little bit of background how you wanted what the opportunities are, maybe maybe in other areas of health care? And then how do you expect it to ramp up, obviously, quite large, should we be expecting some start-up costs in the back half of the year as that comes on the books.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答這個問題。首先，我想問一下有關 NHS 協議的問題。也許您可以稍微介紹一下您希望獲得哪些機會，也許是在醫療保健的其他領域？然後，您預計它會如何成長，顯然，成長幅度會很大，我們是否應該預期在下半年會出現一些啟動成本。

Yes. Brian, it's Malcolm. Brian, it's a real landmark deal for us. So that's first and foremost to say. In terms of the background, look, we've been kind of working in this health care vertical since we acquired the Clipper business. They had existing relationships in a range of health care customers, and we saw the opportunity coming along. It's been a very long and intense tender process where we've competed with a whole array of large global established health care logistics competitors.

是的。布萊恩，我是馬爾科姆。布萊恩，這對我們來說是一個真正具有里程碑意義的交易。所以這是首先要說的。就背景而言，自從我們收購 Clipper 業務以來，我們一直在醫療保健垂直領域工作。他們與一系列醫療保健客戶都有著良好的關係，我們看到了機會的到來。這是一個非常漫長而激烈的招標過程，我們與許多全球大型知名醫療保健物流競爭對手競爭。

And I think it's a testament to a big pot of confidence securing this contract with the UK National Health Logistics activity. It's a big pot of confidence in the work that we've done in setting up this new business stream for us. In terms of scale, I mean, it's a huge piece of business. We will take over in place around 8 locations, a couple of thousand people, several hundred delivery trucks and vans.

我認為這證明了我們對與英國國家衛生物流部門簽訂這份合約有充分的信心。這對我們建立這項新業務流所做的工作充滿了信心。從規模上來說，這是一筆龐大的業務。我們將接管大約 8 個地點、數千人、數百輛送貨卡車和貨車。

So -- and it's a takeover in place environment. So we're not anticipating any significant type of startup costs going into this. The team have been planning this startup for a considerable amount of time. You've seen the announcements earlier this week. Obviously, we've been aware of the awards since the last quarter, but obviously tied on the confidentiality arrangements. And that, hence, only announcing it publicly in the last week.

所以——這是一個就地接管的環境。因此，我們預計此項工作不會產生任何重大的啟動成本。該團隊已經為這次創業規劃了相當長一段時間。您已經看到了本週早些時候的公告。顯然，我們從上個季度開始就知道了這些獎項，但顯然受到保密安排的約束。因此，直到上週才公開宣布這項消息。

And I think the last thing to say is it is for us, like making a mini M&A. It's of that scale. It brings a whole lot of new opportunities. We have now a very strong pipeline of health-related customers waiting to join us not just in the UK, we're expanding that expertise out into European business and indeed here in the US and already, you can see us announcing -- starting to announce some new business wins in the health industry like Siemens and several others are in the hopper and will be made known as we move through quarter 2. So a very, very exciting time for it.

我認為最後要說的是，這對我們來說就像是進行一次小型併購。就是那種規模。它帶來了許多新的機會。我們現在擁有非常強大的醫療相關客戶管道，他們不僅在英國等待加入我們，我們還將這些專業知識擴展到歐洲業務，甚至在美國，而且您已經可以看到我們宣布 - 開始宣佈在醫療行業贏得一些新的業務，例如西門子和其他幾家公司正在醞釀中，並將在第二季度。所以這是一個非常非常令人興奮的時刻。

And just a follow-up on the broader macro environment. Can you give some general context and maybe some of your conversations on inventory levels, what your customers are telling you? And I guess, more specifically, you're seeing in these facilities?

這只是對更廣泛的宏觀環境的後續關注。您能否提供一些一般背景資訊以及一些有關庫存水準的對話，以及您的客戶告訴您的內容？我想，更具體地說，您看到這些設施了嗎？

And then anything on bonded warehouses because obviously, tariffs are a bit of a moving target. I wondered if there's any play for you in there if that's a big part of the business where you can kind of help provide some of those opportunities to navigate that uncertainty?

然後是關於保稅倉庫的任何事情，因為顯然關稅是一個不斷變化的目標。我想知道，如果這是業務的重要組成部分，您是否可以提供一些機會來應對這種不確定性？

Sure, Brian. I'll pass over in a moment to Baris on the bonded warehouse aspect. But as we've said already, all three regions, very strong performance. Our North American business actually was our strongest region in quarter 1 largely due to the kind of customer mix that we have, a lot of our best technology infrastructure, industrial type of customers. And also, I have to say, we benefited a little bit.

當然，布萊恩。我馬上就將保稅倉庫方面的問題轉交給巴里斯。但正如我們已經說過的，這三個地區的表現都非常強勁。北美業務實際上是我們第一季表現最強勁的地區，這主要歸功於我們擁有的客戶組合，包括許多最好的技術基礎設施和工業類型的客戶。而且，我不得不說，我們也受益匪淺。

We've refreshed some management towards the end of last year, they're really hitting now when we're seeing improved efficiency and productivity arrangements, the consolidation process that we were under, that's really gathered good momentum. So all of those things gave us some good momentum in quarter 1.

我們在去年年底更新了一些管理層，現在我們看到效率和生產力安排得到改善，我們所處的整合過程確實取得了良好的發展勢頭。所有這些因素都為我們第一季帶來了良好的發展動能。

Continental Europe that's just been rock solid. No different than past quarters. It's performing exceptionally well. The surprise for us in quarter 1 was actually slightly softer volumes than we expected in our UK business. We believe that's just some of our customers reacting to the new employment taxes that the UK government brought in earlier in the year.

歐洲大陸一直堅如磐石。與前幾季沒有什麼不同。它的表現非常出色。第一季令我們感到驚訝的是，我們英國業務的銷售量實際上比預期的略低。我們相信這只是部分客戶對英國政府今年稍早推出的新就業稅的反應。

But as we've moved into Q2, in fact, we've seen already our UK activity rebounding. And I think as Baris already said, we've moved into Q2, we're a good way through it now. We're seeing a very similar trend that we were seeing in quarter 1. In terms of volumes, and here, it's really a North American message, we did see some positive volume development in the first quarter as some of our customers, I think, brought extra inventories into the warehouse. Important to mention that's not affecting our quarter results. We don't actually transport that into top line.

但隨著我們進入第二季度，事實上，我們已經看到英國的活動反彈。我認為正如巴里斯所說，我們已經進入第二季度，目前進展順利。我們看到的趨勢與第一季非常相似。就數量而言，這確實是北美的信息，我們確實看到第一季數量有所積極發展，因為我認為我們的一些客戶將額外的庫存帶入了倉庫。值得一提的是，這不會影響我們的季度業績。我們實際上並沒有將其轉化為營收。

So although we see incremental volumes, we'll likely see those starting to move out of the warehouses as we progress through quarter 2 and as we progress into quarter 3 and even start planning for peak season. And I guess the last thing to say is, just to reinforce what Baris just indicated, all the internal efficiency initiatives that we've been driving coupled with our geographic mix, 2/3 of our business is in Europe.

因此，儘管我們看到了增量交易量，但隨著我們進入第二季度和第三季度，甚至開始為旺季做準備，我們很可能會看到這些交易量開始從倉庫中移出。我想最後要說的是，為了強調巴里斯剛才指出的觀點，我們一直在推動的所有內部效率舉措，加上我們的地理分佈，我們的 2/3 業務都在歐洲。

We don't have any exposure to China, it's really kind of giving us a very strong confidence for the remainder of the 2025 year even against this very dynamic macro environment. In a normal environment, as a management team, definitely, we would have been raising our outlook for 2025. There's no doubt about it. But I think it's a prudent approach.

我們在中國沒有任何業務，即使在這個非常動態的宏觀環境下，這也確實讓我們對 2025 年剩餘時間充滿信心。在正常環境下，作為管理團隊，我們肯定會提高對 2025 年的展望。毫無疑問。但我認為這是一種謹慎的做法。

We can ignore that there's an elevated level of uncertainty across all markets at the moment. And that's the very reason why, as Baris indicated, we're just choosing right now. We're reaffirming our full year guide, which, as you're aware, that 3% to 6% organic and that very narrow band of $840 million to $860 million on the EBITDA.

我們可以忽略目前所有市場都存在的較高程度的不確定性。正如巴里斯所指出的，這就是我們現在做出選擇的原因。我們重申全年指引，如您所知，有機成長率為 3% 至 6%，EBITDA 成長率在 8.4 億美元至 8.6 億美元的窄幅區間內。

And Malcolm, if I would take a look at the inventory levels, we have elevated inventory levels in North America especially in large ticket items, including technology, they had inventory levels pretty high going into Q2, and it continues into May. So there is availability of inventory in the system, there's also elevated inventory in fashion but less than technology.

馬爾科姆，如果我看一下庫存水平，我們發現北美的庫存水平已經提高，特別是大件商品，包括技術產品，進入第二季度時庫存水平已經相當高，而且這種情況持續到了 5 月份。因此，系統中有可用的庫存，時尚產品的庫存也有所增加，但少於技術產品。

But at the end of the day, 2/3 of our business is outside of the US, half of our businesses open book and other half is other half is contractual minimum volume requirements and inflation pass-throughs. And we have a very diversified customer base, as you highlighted. Our omnichannel retail business in North America is slightly smaller than our presence in Europe. Therefore, our presence in technology, aerospace and defense and diversification in North America is playing well in the same one.

但最終，我們的 2/3 業務都在美國以外，一半業務是公開的，另一半是合約最低交易量要求和通貨膨脹轉嫁。正如您所強調的，我們擁有非常多樣化的客戶群。我們在北美的全通路零售業務比我們在歐洲的業務規模略小。因此，我們在北美的技術、航空航太和國防以及多元化業務都發揮著良好的作用。

And Baris, quick thoughts on the bonded warehouses. Is that a big factor for GXO's offering?

巴里斯，請簡單談談保稅倉庫的問題。這對 GXO 的產品來說是一個重要因素嗎？

It is. In North America, our consumer vertical, we have seen significant increase in requests, especially on bonded warehouses, rebagging and retaking of inventory. At this level, it's not a material -- it doesn't have a material impact on our financials, but it's another example of how GXO is supporting our customers during volatile times.

這是。在北美，我們的消費者垂直領域，我們看到請求顯著增加，特別是在保稅倉庫、重新裝袋和重新獲取庫存方面。從這個層面來說，這並不是什麼大問題——它不會對我們的財務狀況產生重大影響，但它是 GXO 在動盪時期為我們的客戶提供支援的另一個例子。

Okay, thank you both for all that information. I appreciate it.

好的，謝謝你們提供的所有資訊。我很感激。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）。

Great, thanks. So great to hear about the record pipeline of new business. Just wanted to follow up with kind of some of the existing contracts, obviously, kind of -- we're getting to the point where we are now going to a five-year mark since the pandemic. And I think that's your average contract length.

太好了，謝謝。很高興聽到新業務創紀錄的消息。我只是想跟進一些現有的合同，顯然，我們已經到了疫情爆發五年的階段。我認為這就是你的平均合約期限。

How do you think about visibility into some of those contracts come up for renewal and maybe some of those customers realize that, hey, they kind of signed up for some vision of a pandemic future, it hasn't quite played out? And is there a risk that there may be some kind of potential cliff coming in contract renewals in excess of your normal churn of business?

您如何看待一些即將續約的合約的可見性？也許有些客戶意識到，他們簽署的某些關於未來疫情的願景還沒有完全實現？是否有這樣的風險：續約合約可能會出現超出正常業務量的潛在斷崖？

Ravi, it's Malcolm. No, we're not seeing any sign of that or indeed, have we any concern about that. I mean our typical contract period nowadays is around five years. That's a typical kind of contract that we sign -- and a process for us is we don't generally see the contracts coming to an end before they're renewed. We are working with the customer customers' demands change from time to time, the requirement in terms of sizes of warehouse can change.

拉維，我是馬爾科姆。不，我們沒有看到任何這樣的跡象，或者說，我們對此有任何擔憂。我的意思是我們現在的典型合約期限大約是五年。這是我們簽署的典型合約——我們的流程是，我們通常不會看到合約在續約之前到期。我們與客戶合作，客戶的需求不斷變化，倉庫尺寸的要求也會改變。

So it's a gradual process of renewing the contract. We don't have any cliff of higher volume of contract renewals. It's quite normal. We're renewing a typical normal level of contracts every year. And in fact, although we've not actually announced because we're still in confidentiality, we have actually just renewed two very large new pieces of business, two large existing customer relationships here in North America, two big flagship sites, in fact.

所以這是一個逐步續約的過程。我們不存在續約合約量大幅增加的現象。這很正常。我們每年都會續簽正常數量的合約。事實上，儘管由於仍處於保密狀態我們尚未正式宣布，但我們實際上剛剛在北美續簽了兩項非常大的新業務，兩個現有的大型客戶關係，兩個大型旗艦網站。

But no, no real cliff that we see on the horizon and really high levels of customer satisfaction, I think our teams are doing a very good, solid job and I think customer satisfaction speaking for itself. And clearly, as we're seeing, customers are gravitating to GXO, they are recognizing the benefits that we're bringing to them from a technology aspect and how we're able to help them and improve their business.

但是，我們沒有看到真正的懸崖，而且客戶滿意度確實很高，我認為我們的團隊做得非常好，非常紮實，我認為客戶滿意度不言而喻。顯然，正如我們所看到的，客戶正在被 GXO 所吸引，他們認識到我們從技術方面為他們帶來的好處以及我們如何幫助他們並改善他們的業務。

Great, thanks. And maybe as a follow-up, Kristine, I think you mentioned that you were starting to see some of the cost savings from automation projects showing up. Can you help quantify what the savings are like, how they compare versus your expectations and how they are expected to ramp as those projects mature?

太好了，謝謝。也許作為後續問題，克里斯汀，我想您提到過，您開始看到自動化專案帶來的一些成本節約。您能否幫助量化節省的情況、與您的預期相比如何以及隨著這些項目的成熟預計節省情況將如何增加？

Hi Ravi, it's Kristine here. Thanks for the question. We've been working in developing and piloting on this proprietary warehouse AI for over a year. And we really are thrilled with the progress we made. In the first quarter, as I said, we recorded our first nonpilot cost savings as a result of the proprietary AI implementations.

你好，拉維，我是克莉絲汀。謝謝你的提問。我們已經致力於開發和試行這種專有倉庫 AI 一年多了。我們對於所取得的進展感到非常興奮。正如我所說，在第一季度，由於專有人工智慧的實施，我們首次實現了非飛行員成本的節約。

We'll continue to deliver the savings from these implementations throughout 2025, and -- and while the financial impact, as I mentioned, is immaterial for '25. We are creating that flywheel that will deliver outsized savings for the years to come.

我們將在 2025 年繼續實現這些實施所帶來的節省，而且 — — 儘管正如我所提到的，其財務影響對於 2025 年來說並不重要。我們正在創造一個飛輪，它將在未來幾年帶來巨額的節省。

So note that deploying this AI into ground operations is a lift for every site, every warehouse that we have is different and very bespoke. But also this is how we improve productivity. And AI is one of those areas that we're lifting there. And it's across -- we'll take this in consideration with other productivity initiatives. But we're really excited what we're seeing in terms of the AI applications and processes across the warehouse. But it's early days, Ravi, but we're excited. It has a huge potential for us.

因此請注意，將這種人工智慧部署到地面行動中對每個站點都是一種提升，我們的每個倉庫都是不同的，並且非常客製化。但這也是我們提高生產力的方法。人工智慧就是我們正在大力發展的領域之一。而且它是跨領域的——我們會在其他生產力措施中考慮這一點。但我們對整個倉庫的人工智慧應用和流程感到非常興奮。但現在還為時過早，拉維，但我們很興奮。它對我們來說具有巨大的潛力。

Understood.

明白了。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

Yeah, hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I guess I'm kind of curious how conversations are going in terms of building the pipeline. I know the value of the pipeline is obviously at very high levels as it stands right now. But I'm kind of curious how the conversations have been evolving in the context of tariffs. You guys obviously have exposure -- a greater exposure in Europe than the US So does this accelerate conversations?

是的，嘿，謝謝。大家早安。我想我有點好奇在建立管道方面的對話進展如何。我知道目前該管道的價值顯然處於非常高的水平。但我有點好奇在關稅背景下的對話是如何發展的。你們顯然在歐洲有曝光度，比在美國有更大的曝光度，那麼這會加速對話嗎？

Has it put things on pause for a period of time or maybe we see a period of time where the incremental new revenue booked kind of drop. So I'm just kind of curious what the tenor and tone of the conversations you're having with the customers are right now given that backdrop?

它是否會暫停一段時間，或者我們是否會看到一段時間內新增收入下降。所以我只是有點好奇，在這種背景下，您現在與客戶交談的基調和語氣是什麼？

Chris, let me comment on that. It's Malcolm here. So we've really actually seen no material impact in terms of sales pipeline regarding tariffs. I mean it'd be wrong to say that we've not been in discussions with some customers who may be momentarily hesitated. I can think of one particular large tender where the customer was just a bit hesitant because of trade tensions.

克里斯，讓我對此發表評論。我是馬爾科姆。因此，我們實際上並沒有看到關稅對銷售管道產生實質影響。我的意思是，如果說我們沒有與一些可能暫時猶豫的客戶進行過討論，那就錯了。我記得有一次大型招標，由於貿易緊張，客戶有點猶豫。

But even that one customer I can think of, it's fully back on track. It's fully reengaged. And in fact, speaking to the team, my understanding is we'll actually be signing new contracts on that. And it's quite a big piece of business here in North America. We'll be signing contracts in even next week or early the week after.

但即使我能想到的那一個客戶，一切都已完全恢復正常。它已完全重新接合。事實上，與團隊交談後，我的理解是我們實際上會就此簽署新的合約。這在北美是一筆相當大的生意。我們將在下週或下下週初簽署合約。

So no impact right now in terms of what we're seeing in terms of customer demand. But remember, most of the business that we undertake, it tends to be very long term. Customers are signing for five years, but really, they're making decisions for the future tenures. That's why you see such a long tenure of business relationships that we have. Pipeline right now, $2.5 billion, that's up 13% year-over-year.

因此，就我們所看到的客戶需求而言，目前沒有影響。但請記住，我們承接的大多數業務往往都是長期的。客戶簽訂的是五年合約，但實際上，他們是在為未來的使用期限做決定。這就是為什麼我們之間的業務關係如此長久。目前管道投資為 25 億美元，年增 13%。

I think we're reaping the benefits of some of the redesign that we did during '24 of our sales organizations, if you remember, we appointed Richard Cawston, our Chief Revenue Officer. He's been redesigning, repopulating, refreshing some of our sales organization. So no doubt, we're seeing some of the benefit coming through from that.

我認為我們正在從 24 年銷售組織重新設計中獲益，如果您還記得的話，我們任命了理查德·考斯頓 (Richard Cawston) 為首席營收長。他一直在重新設計、重組和更新我們的一些銷售組織。因此毫無疑問，我們看到了由此帶來的一些好處。

In terms of the bond business, again, 228, that puts us right on track for our expectation for 2025, 228 in quarter 1, 732 million already booked 2025. It's around -- that would give us just around 7% organic gross wins against our full year expectation of 8%. So we're right on track of everything that we expected to be at.

就債券業務而言，我們再次確認了 228 筆債券，這完全符合我們對 2025 年的預期，第一季的債券交易量為 228 筆，2025 年的預訂量為 7.32 億筆。大約是——這將使我們的有機毛利率達到 7% 左右，而我們全年的預期是 8%。因此，我們的一切都按照我們預期的計劃進行。

And impressively, I think what we're also seeing now is a lot of the e-commerce projects reemerging, it's making up a sizable proportion of our overall sales pipeline. And I think our geographic exposure, the work that we've been doing in moving into new verticals, and I do want to stress that. I think our company in parts of the geographic where we work, Europe, in particular, historically, we were probably a little bit over exports to omnichannel retail. The move into new verticals like health care, that's helping really diversify the business. So I think it just adds that a bit more overall to the resiliency.

令人印象深刻的是，我認為我們現在也看到許多電子商務項目重新出現，它們佔據了我們整體銷售管道的相當大一部分。我認為我們的地理覆蓋範圍，以及我們在進入新垂直領域所做的工作，我確實想強調這一點。我認為，從歷史上看，我們公司在部分地區（尤其是歐洲）對全通路零售的出口可能有些過度。進軍醫療保健等新的垂直領域，有助於真正實現業務多元化。所以我認為這只是從整體上增加了一點彈性。

And maybe also Kristine, please jump in on that.

也許還有克里斯汀，請加入討論。

Thanks, Malcolm. Chris, it's Kristine here. Just for some added context, we have $732 million of incremental revenue from wind we expect to land in 2025 as of the end of the first quarter. This is an 8% compared to the position we were in 12 months ago, and almost 2/3 of this win is based in the UK and Continental Europe.

謝謝，馬爾科姆。克里斯，我是克里斯汀。補充一點背景信息，截至第一季末，我們預計到 2025 年風能新增收入將達到 7.32 億美元。與 12 個月前相比，這一增長了 8%，其中近 2/3 的增長來自英國和歐洲大陸。

And even more exciting is that we already have $316 million of incremental revenue per win expected to land in 2026, this is 30% above where we were just 12 months ago. And more than 70% of this relates to contracts based in the UK and Continental Europe.

更令人興奮的是，我們預計到 2026 年每場勝利的增量收入將達到 3.16 億美元，比 12 個月前高出 30%。其中 70% 以上與英國和歐洲大陸的合約有關。

I would just say is complexity and certainty continues to increase for our customers, that's where our value proposition certainly comes into play where the visibility we're gaining momentum into 2026 at this point.

我想說的是，對於我們的客戶來說，複雜性和確定性不斷增加，這正是我們的價值主張發揮作用的地方，目前我們在 2026 年的可見性正在增強。

That's great. Very helpful answer. I appreciate that. And then a quick follow-up, just on organic revenue growth. Presumably, we're expecting an acceleration in the coming quarters. Any shape you can help us with in terms of how to think about that growth rate as we go through the next couple of quarters here?

那太棒了。非常有幫助的答案。我很感激。然後快速跟進一下有機收入成長。據推測，我們預計未來幾季將會加速成長。您能幫助我們了解如何看待接下來幾季的成長率嗎？

Sure, Chris. It's Baris here. We do see an acceleration of our organic growth throughout 2025. For the full year, the building blocks of revenue growth will be roughly 8% coming from wins, and minus 5% churn. As we highlighted, we put zero volume growth year-over-year in our model and 1.5% coming from pricing.

當然，克里斯。我是巴里斯。我們確實看到我們的有機成長在 2025 年加速。就全年而言，收入成長的基本要素約為 8% 來自勝利，以及 5% 的客戶流失。正如我們所強調的，我們在模型中設定了同比零銷量成長，1.5% 來自定價。

So we will see that acceleration throughout the year. And so far, the direction is very positive. And our growth in Q1 reflects new business wins and growth in our existing business balancing the churn, including customer realignment we discussed last year. So everything is going in line with the plan.

因此我們將在全年看到這種加速。到目前為止，方向非常正面。我們第一季的成長反映了新業務的成功和現有業務的成長，平衡了客戶流失，包括我們去年討論過的客戶調整。一切都按照計劃進行。

Great, thanks very much appreciate it.

太好了，非常感謝。

Bruce Chan, Stifel.

布魯斯陳（Bruce Chan），Stifel。

Yeah, thanks, operator and good morning, everybody. A lot of really good commentary around business wins in the pipeline. So maybe I'll switch gears a little bit. I know that the CMA review process kind of is what it is, and we're certainly hopeful that it gets the green mice.

是的，謝謝接線生，大家早安。關於正在醞釀的商業勝利，有很多非常好的評論。所以也許我應該稍微換個話題。我知道 CMA 審查流程就是這樣，我們當然希望它能獲得綠鼠的認可。

But maybe I can ask about some of the alternatives that you proposed in terms of sale of the grocery business versus the reorganization. Is there one of those that you prefer?

但也許我可以問一下您提出的關於出售雜貨業務與重組的一些替代方案。其中有您比較喜歡的一個嗎？

And how should we think about the timeline for each if you don't get the outright approval? And what I'm trying to get here is, what's the various timeline scenario for when you can start with the integration?

如果您沒有獲得直接批准，我們應該如何考慮每個時間表？我在這裡想要了解的是，當您開始整合時，各種時間軸場景是什麼樣的？

Bruce, it's Malcolm here. And obviously, this subject very near to my heart as a British national. So first and foremost, I mean, through all this process, the Wincanton business, it's been trading really well since the acquisition. We're very pleased with the management. We're very pleased with how the revenue is developing.

布魯斯，我是馬爾科姆。顯然，身為英國人，我非常關心這個問題。所以首先，我的意思是，在整個過程中，Wincanton 業務自收購以來一直運作良好。我們對管理非常滿意。我們對收入的發展感到非常滿意。

And obviously, we -- I think we've overall, very, very happy with the business that we have acquired. We're nearing the conclusion of the discussions with the CMA. In fact, in the coming weeks, we're expecting to receive either a full clearance of the deal that's still quite possible or alternatively, what we might receive is a request that we dispose of a very small part of the Wincanton. Clearly, behind the scenes, there's an awful lot of discussion being taken place.

顯然，我認為我們對所收購的業務總體上非常非常滿意。我們與 CMA 的討論即將結束。事實上，在接下來的幾週內，我們預計要么會收到對該交易的全面批准（這仍然很有可能），要么我們可能會收到要求我們處置 Wincanton 一小部分的請求。顯然，幕後正在進行大量的討論。

And when they say a very small proportion of the Wincanton, do you want to give real context to that, it's probably around maybe a bit less than $100 million of revenue in actually a lower margin part of the business. To give you context, it's about 6% of the original Wincanton business that we acquired. And I know, 6% is -- it feels like this is a process that's gone on for a long period of time for such a relatively small actual activity.

當他們說 Wincanton 只佔很小一部分時，你想給出真實的背景嗎？實際上，這部分收入可能略低於 1 億美元，屬於利潤率較低的業務。具體來說，它約占我們收購的原 Wincanton 業務的 6%。我知道，6% —— 感覺對於這樣一個相對較小的實際活動來說，這是一個持續了很長一段時間的過程。

As I mentioned, behind the scenes, we've been preparing for both of these scenarios. We're well advanced on it. Importantly, in parallel, what we've been also doing is talking with the CMA and working together to get to a point where they will allow us to commence the integration of the rest of the business or the rest of the sort of 90-plus percent of the business, they'll allow us to integrate it.

正如我所提到的，在幕後，我們一直在為這兩種情況做準備。我們在這方面已經取得了很大進展。重要的是，同時，我們也與 CMA 進行對話並共同努力，以達到他們允許我們開始整合其餘業務或其餘 90% 以上的業務的程度，他們將允許我們進行整合。

And that's very important because clearly, when we do that, we start to unlock a large amount of cost synergy, which is -- really will drive straight into our margins. It's one of the reasons you'll see margin expanding as we progress through 2025. In terms of timing, we're very close now to the final stage. We think that all of these events will be happening in the early summer.

這非常重要，因為顯然，當我們這樣做時，我們開始釋放大量的成本協同效應，這將直接推動我們的利潤率。這也是到 2025 年利潤率將會擴大的原因之一。從時間上來說，我們現在已經非常接近最後階段了。我們認為所有這些活動都將在初夏發生。

So we're not kind of -- we're no longer multiples of months away with multiples of weeks away, and I think probably by the time we're undertaking our quarter 2 earnings call, will actually be underway. We'll be starting already with the integration will be underway, and we'll be well in advance of even both of those scenarios. Clearly, if it's a green light everything will just move immediately, if it's a disposal, the disposal will move very, very quickly.

因此，我們不再需要等待數月或數週的時間，我認為，當我們進行第二季財報電話會議時，我們實際上已經開始了。我們將立即開始進行整合，並且我們將提前實現這兩種情況。顯然，如果是綠燈，一切都會立即進行，如果是處置，處置將會進行得非常非常快。

It's a lot of work already taking place. Overall, I think the timing that we can now see probably gives us a small upside against our existing plan. We're not building that into our full outlook for all the reasons that we've already talked about. The -- I think we'd be in a much better position as we get to our quarter 2 earnings to reassess that.

很多工作已經在進行中。總的來說，我認為我們現在看到的時機可能比我們現有的計劃有一點優勢。由於我們已經討論過的所有原因，我們不會將其納入我們的全面展望中。我認為，當我們獲得第二季收益並重新評估這一點時，我們會處於更有利的地位。

Okay perfect that's a great update, thank you.

好的，太好了，這是一個很棒的更新，謝謝。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎漢納。

Thanks for taking my questions. You've talked about in the footnote dispute with the Italian tax authorities. I think it's about maybe $150 million booked in recent quarters. Can you talk about where that stands and what you reserve there? And -- is the tax rate on a go-forward basis burden for a negative outcome there? Or could there be some risk to the EPS line if that doesn't go the way you hope?

感謝您回答我的問題。您曾在註腳中談到與義大利稅務機關的爭議。我認為最近幾季的預訂金額大約是 1.5 億美元。您能談談它的立場和您保留的內容嗎？並且－未來的稅率是否會對負面結果造成負擔？或者如果事情沒有按照您希望的方式發展，每股收益線是否會面臨一些風險？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hi, this is Baris here. First of all, this does not have an impact on our tax rate for 2025, it's expected to be around 25%, and that's driven by all these initiatives increases that you see in all companies, a minimum tax rates in many jurisdictions. So it does not have an impact on our adjusted EPS. You will remember in Q2 2024, we disclosed the contingency related to discussions with the Italian authorities around the historic VAT payments linked to a cooperative labor practice unique to our Italian business. This is similar to many other international companies operating in Italy.

大家好，我是 Baris。首先，這不會對我們 2025 年的稅率產生影響，預計稅率將在 25% 左右，這是由您在所有公司中看到的所有這些舉措的推動，也是許多司法管轄區的最低稅率的提高。因此它不會對我們的調整後每股收益產生影響。您會記得，在 2024 年第二季度，我們披露了與義大利當局就與我們義大利業務獨有的合作勞工實踐相關的歷史增值稅支付進行的討論相關的應急計劃。這與在義大利運營的許多其他國際公司類似。

The initial challenged amount was $91 million, as we highlighted previously, the current accrual of $66 million, which is lower than the initial amount. The amount is associated with this contingency, and we expect to reach a settlement in 2025, consistent with this amount of $66 million. This is most likely to be paid in Q2 and the amount is an add back in our calculation and does not impact 2024 or 2025, adjusted EBITDA or adjusted EPS. As this cash was booked into a separate account, this has already been reflected in our leverage levels since Q3 of 2024.

最初質疑的金額為 9,100 萬美元，正如我們之前強調的，目前應計金額為 6,600 萬美元，低於初始金額。該金額與此意外情況有關，我們預計將在 2025 年達成和解，金額與 6,600 萬美元一致。這筆款項最有可能在第二季支付，並且該金額在我們的計算中被加回，不會影響 2024 年或 2025 年的調整後 EBITDA 或調整後 EPS。由於這筆現金被記入一個單獨的帳戶，因此自 2024 年第三季以來，這已經反映在我們的槓桿水平中。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. Baris, maybe I'll draw this at you. But to get to your midpoint of your full year EBITDA guidance, it looks like you do need a little bit of ramp in earnings in the back half of the year, which I think you saw last year as well. But can you talk to maybe the seasonality of the business now, especially in light of all the customer alignment activity you had in the first quarter?

大家早安，感謝您提出這個問題。巴里斯，也許我會把這幅畫給你看。但要達到全年 EBITDA 預期的中點，看起來您確實需要在下半年稍微增加盈利，我想您去年也看到了這一點。但是您能否談談現在業務的季節性，特別是考慮到您在第一季開展的所有客戶協調活動？

Sure. In Q1, we saw an overperformance related to improvements in productivity, especially in start-ups. And our 2025 guidance reflects limited amount of synergies from Wincanton in 2025 around GBP10 million. And assuming we begin the integration in late Q2 and early Q3, the ramp of our EBITDA is basically reflecting maturing start-ups we have and the productivity that we have in the start-up as well as our existing business.

當然。在第一季度，我們看到了與生產力提升相關的超額表現，尤其是在新創公司。我們的 2025 年指引反映了 Wincanton 在 2025 年產生的綜效有限，約 1000 萬英鎊。假設我們在第二季末和第三季初開始整合，我們的 EBITDA 的成長基本上反映了我們擁有的成熟新創公司以及我們在新創公司和現有業務中的生產力。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then this might be a really nuanced question, but have you guys done any analysis of how much Chinese import products might be moving through customer facilities, especially in the US? Is there any way to quantify what that volume or revenue exposure might be within the system?

好的。我很感激。這可能是一個非常微妙的問題，但是你們是否分析過有多少中國進口產品可能透過客戶設施運輸，特別是在美國？有什麼方法可以量化系統內的數量或收入風險嗎？

Sure. We have done the analysis. And as you know, about 2/3 of our business is overseas, and we have a smaller omnichannel retail business in Europe -- in US compared to Europe. Then we look into the detail, our customers have done a phenomenal work in diversifying their supply chain base during the last couple of years. And currently, only on the consumer business, if you look at that business, slightly less than 1/4 of the product is coming from -- primarily from one location, China.

當然。我們已經做了分析。如您所知，我們的業務約有三分之二在海外，與歐洲相比，我們在美國擁有較小的全通路零售業務。然後我們深入研究細節，我們的客戶在過去幾年中在多樣化其供應鏈基礎方面做出了非凡的工作。目前，僅就消費業務而言，略少於四分之一的產品主要來自一個地方，即中國。

Sorry, just to clarify. So 1/4 of the retail business in the US you think is exposed to that?

抱歉，只是想澄清一下。所以您認為美國 1/4 的零售業務都受到這種影響嗎？

Quarter of the business in the US, which is less than 2/3 of our business is exposed to 30 coming from imports coming from China, but our customers have done a really, really good job on diversifying our -- the supply chain base through the last couple of years. Today, we don't see any shortage of inventory in our warehouses in fact, or the warehouses in -- especially in technology and technology and fashion. There has been an elevated level of inventory and things are in good shape.

我們在美國的業務有四分之一（不到我們業務的三分之二）受到來自中國的進口的影響，但過去幾年來，我們的客戶在供應鏈基礎多元化方面做得非常非常好。今天，事實上，我們的倉庫並不缺乏庫存，尤其是科技和時尚領域的倉庫。庫存水準提高，情況良好。

Of course, we don't have a crystal ball, but it looks like our customers have done a really, really good job in diversifying and -- we have -- we don't see much of a risk in our EBITDA in the guidance we provided. Remember, I provided a specific comment around the scenario that we have developed. If we do see a softer US economy and if we see our customer-facing business in the US declined by low to mid-single digits in volumes, this is still forecast to be within this tight EBITDA range.

當然，我們沒有水晶球，但看起來我們的客戶在多元化方面做得非常非常好，而且——我們在提供的指導中沒有看到我們的 EBITDA 有太大風險。請記住，我針對我們所開發的場景提供了具體的評論。如果我們確實看到美國經濟疲軟，並且如果我們看到我們在美國面向客戶的業務量下降了低到中等個位數，那麼預計這仍然會在這個狹窄的 EBITDA 範圍內。

Thank you, Baris. I appreciate it. Thank you.

謝謝你，巴里斯。我很感激。謝謝。

Ariel Rosa, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Ariel Rosa。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. Congrats on the great results. This has Ben Mohr on for Ariel at Citi. With your 1Q direct operating expenses stepping up to 85.9% as a percent of revenue, I think that may have been due to Wincanton with a higher direct OpEx mix than legacy GXO, maybe specific to 1Q. Could you give more color on your outlook on the shape of that direct OpEx line as a percent of revenue through the remainder of the year?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。這是花旗銀行的 Ben Mohr 為 Ariel 所做的報告。由於您的第一季直接營運費用佔收入的百分比上升至 85.9%，我認為這可能是由於 Wincanton 的直接營運支出組合高於傳統 GXO，可能特定於第一季。您能否更詳細地闡述一下您對今年剩餘時間內直接營運支出佔收入百分比的展望？

Hi, it's Baris here. You're exactly right. It's driven by Wincanton having a higher percentage, and they do have a lower percentage of SG&A, once we start integrating, of course, the profitability of that operation will start lifting. And in our model, we put starting integration late Q2, early Q3 and be waiting for the approval, as Malcolm highlighted.

大家好，我是 Baris。你說得完全正確。這是因為 Wincanton 的百分比較高，而且他們的銷售、一般及行政費用百分比較低，一旦我們開始整合，當然，該業務的盈利能力就會開始提升。正如馬爾科姆所強調的，在我們的模型中，我們在第二季末、第三季初開始整合，並等待批准。

Great. Great. Appreciate that. And in terms of your share buybacks, the 2.4% of float is quite stronger than your typical rail average 1% a quarter or 4% a year. Do you expect that 2.4% per quarter run rate, maybe through the rest of '25 if the trade war last that long for a possible 10% of your float as much as that through the year? What's your kind of thinking for share buybacks relative to the length of the trade war for the rest of the year?

偉大的。偉大的。非常感謝。就股票回購而言，2.4% 的流通股比鐵路業平均每季 1% 或每年 4% 的回購率要高得多。您是否預計每季的運行率會達到 2.4%，如果貿易戰持續那麼長時間，那麼在 25 年的剩餘時間內，您的浮動資金可能會達到 10% 呢？相對於今年剩餘時間的貿易戰持續時間，您對股票回購有何看法？

The Board had authorized around $0.5 billion of share repurchase in early -- in February. Through the end of the first quarter, we purchased about 2.8 million shares for about $110 million. We continue to see our shares as attractively valued by always balancing share repurchase against our capital allocation priorities, including organic growth and leverage levels. We will give you an update at the end of Q2 as where we stand.

董事會已於二月初批准回購約 5 億美元的股票。截至第一季末，我們以約 1.1 億美元購買了約 280 萬股。透過始終平衡股票回購和我們的資本配置優先事項（包括有機成長和槓桿水平），我們繼續認為我們的股票具有吸引力。我們將在第二季末向您提供最新進展。

Great. Thanks so much for the color and again, congrats on the great results.

偉大的。非常感謝這個顏色，再次恭喜你所取得的出色成果。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to now turn the call back over to Malcolm Wilson for any further remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給馬爾科姆·威爾遜，請他發表進一步的評論。

Thank you, Morgan, and thanks for hosting our call today. We delivered a strong opening quarter for the year with every region demonstrating strong organic growth and a healthy sales pipeline, which for our combined business now stands at $2.5 billion. During the quarter, we've been able to announce some impressive new customer wins, including the large 10-year deal with the National Health Service Supply Chain, which is a landmark, a new vertical deal for GXO.

謝謝你，摩根，謝謝你今天主持我們的電話會議。我們今年第一季表現強勁，每個地區都表現出強勁的有機成長和健康的銷售管道，我們的合併業務目前已達到 25 億美元。在本季度，我們宣布了一些令人印象深刻的新客戶，包括與國家醫療服務供應鏈達成的為期 10 年的大型交易，這對 GXO 來說是一個里程碑，是一項新的垂直交易。

We've also seen growth in key markets like Germany and have continued to diversify our industrial verticals. We're close to final conclusion with the UK regulatory authority on the Wincanton acquisition, and we're looking forward to integrating the business in the summer.

我們也看到德國等主要市場的成長，並繼續實現工業垂直多元化。我們即將與英國監管機構就 Wincanton 收購案達成最終結論，並期待在夏季整合該業務。

Customers are looking to GXO to help them successfully navigate these times of elevated uncertainty and dynamic economy, our leadership in creating value for automation, technology and AI are growing in their importance. So with that, I'd like to wish everybody a great rest of the day, and thanks very much for joining us and your attendance on our call. Thank you.

客戶希望 GXO 能夠幫助他們成功度過充滿不確定性和經濟活力的時期，我們在為自動化、技術和人工智慧創造價值方面的領導地位的重要性日益增強。因此，我祝大家今天過得愉快，非常感謝您加入我們並參加我們的電話會議。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending, and have a wonderful rest of your day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席，祝您今天過得愉快。