Garrett Motion Inc (GTX) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Q1 2022 Garrett Motion Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Paul Blalock. Mr. Blalock, please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good day, and welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining the Garrett Motion First Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call.

Before we begin, I'd like to mention that today's presentation and earnings press release are available on the Garrett Motion website at garrettmotion.com, where you will also find links to our SEC filings, along with other important information about our company.

Turning to Slide 2. We note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act. We encourage you to read the risk factors contained in our SEC filings, become aware of the risks and uncertainties in our business and understand that forward-looking statements are only estimates of future performance and should be taken as such. The forward-looking statements represent management's expectations only as of today, and the company disclaims any obligation to update them.

Today's presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to describe the way in which we manage and operate our business. We reconcile each of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, and you are encouraged to examine those reconciliations, which are found in the appendix to both the press release and the slide presentation.

Also in today's presentation and comments, we may refer to light vehicle diesel and light vehicle gasoline products by using the terms diesel and gasoline only.

With us today is Olivier Rabiller, Garrett's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sean Deason, Garrett's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I will now hand it over to Olivier.

Thanks, Paul, and welcome, everyone, to Garrett's first quarter conference call. I will begin my remarks on Slide 3, where we start with highlights for the first quarter. Garrett achieved strong first quarter performance in a challenging near-term environment, highlighted by a slower-than-anticipated light vehicle production recovery, stronger inflationary pressure and supply chain constraints impacting OEM production volume. This created numerous difficulties for our employees and supply chain partners. And I would like to thank everyone for their hard work and dedication in these circumstances.

Our employees did a great job in managing through these challenges. I would like particularly thank our employees in China, and specifically in Shanghai, as we maintain production near capacity through great personal sacrifice during the ongoing lockdowns. This again demonstrate that our people are a key differentiator to our performance and the long-term success of Garrett.

Compared with last year, Q1 of 2022 net sales of $901 million were down 10% on a GAAP basis and 6% on a constant currency basis. The constant currency decline of 6% in Q1 2022 sales is approximately equal to or flat with estimated light vehicle production versus Q1 of 2021. This is driven by the ongoing semiconductor shortage and other supply chain challenges impacting vehicle production globally but even more in China.

These short-term constraint do not impact the strength of underlying pent-up demand for light vehicles or the increased pace of turbo penetration. Adjusted EBITDA of $146 million and the resulting adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% are also down from Q1 2021 due to the factors mentioned above but trended upward from Q4 of last year as pricing pass-through initiatives and additional productivity offset inflation and increased supply chain costs, and this even considering our increased R&D investment into new technology for the future.

Indeed, I'm proud of the performance we achieved as we have managed to offset the impact of lower vehicle production due to supply chain constraint and disruptions, but more importantly, of higher costs driven by additional inflation. This is the result of candid discussions with our customers to find business solutions to recognize increasing costs, but also the result of additional productivity initiatives that we have implemented.

Garrett continues to improve its financial flexibility in the first quarter by prepaying an additional $197 million in Series B preferred stock as previously anticipated, and we increased the capacity of our revolving credit facility to $475 million, adding to our liquidity position, which increased to $788 million from $720 million in Q4 2021. Lastly, including the remaining Series B preferred balance, Garrett ended up the first quarter with a net debt to consolidated EBITDA coverage ratio of 1.88x, down from 1.95x in Q4 2021.

Turning now to Slide 4. I first want to reemphasize the point that the short-term OEM supply chain challenges do not impact the strong underlying pent-up demand for light vehicles that, combined with increasing turbo penetration driven by toughening emission standards and technology-driven turbo industry consolidation, paves the way for robust growth in revenue and share of demand for the highly cash-generative core business of Garrett.

This quarter, we are also happy to signal the first commercial launch of our industry-first E-Turbo technology on the Mercedes-AMG SL 43. This award-winning and innovative device highlights Garrett's remarkable progress in developing unmatched in-house capabilities in high-speed motors, power electronics and controls as well as our software capabilities inherent in electrified powertrain. This initial E-Turbo deployment is indeed expected to be followed by additional ones.

I am also very proud to report a very important business win that underlines both the advances we have made in the development of critical electric systems for fuel cell powertrains and the growing focus of our customers on hydrogen electric vehicles. In fact, we were just awarded a self-generation fuel cell compressor program from a major global OEM for a light commercial vehicle program that is expected to launch within the next 2, 3 years.

The strength of the cash flow generation of our core business enables us to continue to invest in the future of our technologies for growth, offering potential technology differentiation and addressing the industry transformation.

As mentioned during our prior earnings release, we plan to invest 50% of our 2022 R&D spend to new noncore turbo technologies. To support this effort, this quarter, we have opened additional electric lab capabilities in our main development hubs, but more importantly, we have recruited more than 150 new engineers that are experts in electrification technologies. This hiring success confirms the attractiveness of Garrett as a new technology provider, but also validates the credibility of the technology capabilities we have developed in the eyes of these electric experts joining our company.

With that, I will now turn it over to Sean to provide more insight on our results.

Thanks, Olivier, and welcome, everyone. I will begin my remarks on Slide 5. Looking at the upper left-hand graph, Q1 of 2021 was the strongest sales quarter over the last 5 quarters for two reasons: one, it was largely before the semiconductor shortage; and two, Q1 of 2021 had pent-up demand from the lifting of COVID lockdowns in 2020.

As Olivier just mentioned, Q1 of 2022 net sales were down 6% at constant currency from Q1 of 2021. But as you can see here, the semiconductor shortage peaked in Q3 of 2021, which drove the lowest sales quarter for 2021, and sales have been on an upward swing since that low point on a sequential basis. Q1 2022 sales increased 5% from Q4 of 2021.

Turning to the right-hand side of the page. While adjusted EBITDA of $146 million in Q1 of 2022 decreased 17% from Q1 of 2021, it was up on a sequential basis by 13% from Q4 of 2021. Similarly, the Q1 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% is down from 17.7% in Q1 of 2021. But importantly, our Q1 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% improved 120 basis points sequentially from Q4 of 2021. This performance highlights the ability of Garrett to manage core operations by flexing our variable cost structure and successfully pass through inflationary pressures. This is a key differentiator and competency for Garrett, and we will speak more on this point later in the presentation.

Lastly, in Q1 2022, adjusted free cash flow was $38 million driven by lower volume and continued CapEx investments, which were higher due to carryover from 2021, which is typical in the first quarter.

Turning to Slide 6. You see our year-over-year net sales bridge for Q1 by product category. As mentioned earlier, the continued impact of the ongoing semiconductor shortage weighed on vehicle production schedules and drove Q1 2022 gasoline, diesel and commercial vehicle sales lower. Compared to the same period in the prior year, gasoline product sales decreased 5% at constant currency and were 40% of total net sales. Diesel product sales decreased 14% in constant currency and were 28% of sales, and commercial vehicles decreased 7% and represented 19% of sales.

On the positive side, strong aftermarket off-highway demand, particularly in North America and Europe, allowed this vertical to grow 19% year-over-year at constant currency and represented 12% of total sales. The strength of aftermarket and the fact that 32% of our first quarter sales were due to the more profitable verticals of commercial vehicle and aftermarket demonstrates the benefit of Garrett's well-diversified and broad portfolio of products. Lastly, the overall FX impact hurt Q1 2022 sales by $36 million and is reflective of a weakening euro.

Turning to Slide 7. You see our Q1-to-Q1 adjusted EBITDA bridge to Q1 of 2022. Although Q1 2022 volumes of 3.4 million units were up 4% sequentially from Q4 of 2021, they were down 10% from Q1 of 2021 primarily driven by a $43 million volume and FX-related reduction partially offset by product mix, the decline of which is due primarily to semiconductor shortages. It is important to note that we still see a very strong underlying demand for light vehicles, which we expect to result in sustained future demand once the semiconductor and supply chain issues are resolved.

While these macro headwinds presented challenges, we successfully flexed our variable cost structure to adapt to volatile production schedules, continue to deliver material and production productivity and pass-through inflationary pressures resulting in a strong margin even with an increased investment into R&D spending as planned. So in summary, Q1 2022 adjusted EBITDA of $146 million led to a 16.2% adjusted EBITDA margin as we successfully offset inflationary pressures and a higher R&D spend through productivity pass-through efforts despite lower volumes and foreign exchange headwinds.

On Slide 8, you can see our adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow walk for Q1. Looking at the right-hand side of the slide, you will see that Garrett's high working capital turnover has historically provided a source of cash on an annual basis, assuming a stable and increasing volume and sales environment. However, in Q1 of 2022, working capital was a slight use of cash of $7 million, after being a source of $84 million of cash in Q4 of 2021 and $38 million in Q1 of 2021. The slightly negative working capital result this quarter was due to supply chain constraints limiting OEM production, which drove inventories higher.

Shifting to the left-hand side of the slide. You will see the Q1 2022 bridge from adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow. Deducting the change in working capital, cash taxes, capital expenditures, including carryover spend from 2021 projects, cash interest, which includes factoring, P-notes and $11 million of Series B accretion related to the early retirement of $197 million of Series B shares and the $20 million in employee bonus incentives related to 2021, all resulted in adjusted free cash flow of $38 million for Q1 of 2022. Overall, Garrett delivered positive adjusted free cash flow in a challenging environment while increasing CapEx and R&D spending as planned.

Turning now to Slide 9. We ended Q1 2022 with expanded revolver capacity, increasing our available liquidity to $788 million, including $315 million in unrestricted cash and approximately $473 million in undrawn commitments. We also redeemed $197 million in Series B preferred stock, helping to further improve our leverage ratio. Following the Q1 2022 payment, the present value of remaining scheduled redemption payments on the Series B shares is $204 million as of March 31, 2022. Importantly, including the Series B preferred stock, Garrett's net debt to consolidated EBITDA ratio declined to a coverage level of 1.88x from 1.95x in Q4 of 2021.

Lastly, during the quarter, we also repurchased 50,000 common shares and 197,000 Series A preferred shares, bringing the total equity repurchased since the plan was adopted during Q4 of 2021 to 21 million, leaving 79 million of available capacity under our buyback program. In summary, Garrett continued to deleverage and enhance our financial flexibility through an expanded revolver and positive free cash flow generation.

Turning now to Slide 10. We provide our revised 2022 outlook as compared with our prior outlook issued in mid-February. For the full year of 2022, we are lowering our outlook to reflect supply chain constraints, which are driving lower global light vehicle automotive production for 2022 as well as FX rates, in particular, a weaker euro. For global light vehicle auto production, our planning assumption is now flat to 2021 light vehicle production or approximately 77 million engines.

To put our updated 2022 assumption of 77 million engines in context, the latest IHS low estimate for 2022 is 77.6 million engines and the average for 2018 and 2019 was 91.8 million engines. As such, our new 2022 outlook calls for the ranges you see on the slide that imply the following midpoints: net sales of $3.6 billion; net income of $273 million; adjusted EBITDA of $560 million; net cash provided by operating activities of $455 million; and adjusted free cash flow of $380 million. This guidance also assumes continued disruptions in Q2, possibly into early Q3 and then a recovery in the second half with a strong finish in the fourth quarter of 2022. For greater detail, I'd point you to the reconciliations of each of these metrics to the nearest GAAP figure as shown in the appendix of this presentation.

Turning now to Slide 11. We show the adjusted EBITDA walk for our prior outlook versus our revised outlook. As we have discussed earlier, on a full year basis and similar to our performance in the first quarter, we plan to continue to flex our variable cost structure to adapt to volatile light vehicle production schedules and mitigate current inflationary pressures through productivity and contracted pass-throughs. Like we said on the last slide, the 2 main macro pressures that drive our lower adjusted EBITDA outlook are supply chain constraints at the OEMs, resulting in lower auto production volumes and a weaker euro. We expect these factors will persist in Q2 and possibly part of Q3 before beginning to improve.

Operationally, we are delivering on our commitment to mitigate inflation and plan to spend $18 million more on R&D related -- to investments in new technologies. When you compare the prior adjusted EBITDA guidance, the macro factors of lower supply chain-related production drives a $40 million reduction in FX, mainly weaker euro now seen at USD 1.08 to the euro for the full year versus the prior assumption of USD 1.13, results in a reduction of $28 million.

As we noted earlier, we also see significant pent-up demand for light vehicles, which we believe will result in sustained growth for Europe once supply chain constraints are resolved in the automotive industry.

And with that, I will now hand it back to Olivier for his concluding remarks.

Thank you, Sean. In summary, and on Slide 12, Garrett delivered solid results in Q1 of 2022 with net sales of $901 million. While this was a decrease of 6% at constant currency from the first quarter of last year, it was an increase of 5% over Q4 2021. The current automotive supply chain challenges are not impacting the strong underlying pent-up demand for light vehicles. Additionally, the increasing turbo penetration and technology-driven turbo industry consolidation paved the way for robust growth in revenue and cash generation once the automotive industry supply chain normalizes.

Garrett generated an adjusted EBITDA of $146 million with a margin of 16.2%, and this is a solid performance in light of the reduced production, increased inflation and overall supply chain volatility. And it gives us confidence that we have the means to address inflation and supply chain challenges. We also reduced our net leverage to 1.88, including the Series B preferred stock, from 1.95 at the end of 2021.

This continued improvement in our balance sheet positions the company well for the future, and we ended Q1 of 2022 with $788 million in total liquidity, up from $720 million last quarter. Indeed, we have revised our 2022 outlook to reflect essentially 2 macroeconomic factors: the weakening of the euro and the more pessimistic view for the 2022 light vehicle automotive industry production that we now expect to be approximately flat to 2021.

Our robust operational execution even in these volatile times and, as demonstrated in Q1, will enable us to take advantage of any improvement on this point. I would like once again to thank our employees for their dedication in a volatile environment. Their contribution and flexibility drove another successful quarter of strong performance for Garrett. Operator, we are now ready, I think, to begin the Q&A session.

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from Hamed Khorsand with BWS Financial.

So just, Sean, I had a housekeeping question, was could you disclose how many units were sold this past quarter?

We didn't disclose, but it was approximately 3.4 million turbos is what we saw [prior] -- sale prior .

Okay. And then the question I had was, are you seeing anything different from the ordering habits of customers? Or is it still volatile like it was in '21? Or is it -- have they just held back completely just given the macro factors going on?

That's a very interesting question because I think we were having a huge level of volatility, let's say, Q3, Q4 2021. Then we started the year with something that was a bit more stable. And then we had increased volatility into the quarter. And I would say the level of volatility we see today in our demand is very close to what we had in Q3 last year and very close to what we had after the first wave of COVID. So we are back into the same, and quite frankly, that's what I'm hearing not only from us but from everyone in the industry.

And Hamed, just so you know, on Slide 8, the working capital slide, we do disclose the quarterly volumes of the turbos.

Okay. Just given that volatility comment, do you feel like it's different this time versus last year? Or is it similar just given that some of this is with China lockdowns going on right now?

What we see is that, obviously, the lockdowns in China are not improving the situation. But overall, the main driver for the volatility of demand we see remains semiconductor shortages from what we see from our customers and the impact it has on them, adjusting their production.

And my last question is given the state of the weaker euro, is that changing your plans in how you spread out your investments in R&D? Or is it still remaining mostly in Europe?

When it comes to our investments in R&D, we have a significant piece that is in Europe. By the way, it's getting weaker. So at the end of the day, it makes it cheaper. But we have not changed the way we are spreading our long-term investments in R&D across the globe, because what we are looking for primarily is capabilities and expertise. So we have not amended our strategy on that. And as you can see from our results, we have not changed our mind about the level of investments that we are planning to do this year on R&D.

(Operator Instructions) We do have a question from Chris McIntyre with McIntyre Partnerships.

I was wondering if you could just give a comment on how you guys are thinking about timing of buyback. And sort of it seems like you maybe slowed on the buyback pace during the quarter. So just any comments there would be helpful.

Sure. Well, one of the reasons we were a bit slower is because we reported Q1 earnings and then we went -- then we got into the blackout period quite quickly. And we were under some limitations in the blackout period in terms of the volumes we could buy back based on regulation. But we did make several amendments to the Series A certificate designation and the credit agreement that allow us for greater flexibility. But again, in these volatile times, we want to see what cash flows look like in the coming quarters, and we'll be making decisions on the level of buyback that we will take based on how the macro is developed here in the next coming weeks.

Okay. And are you guys thinking about like an Investor Day at all? Or what -- we still don't really have like a commitment to like capital levels and things like that. So I'm just getting a sense of timing there.

That's true. We are considering it, and then we are reviewing a few options. So we'll get back to all of our investors as soon as we have made up our mind about it.

(Operator Instructions) As we have no more questions, I would like to return the floor to our management for any closing comments.

Well, thank you very much to everyone that has joined the call today. Indeed, the industry is facing some tough times. As we've demonstrated today, we have executed quite well in Q1, giving us the confidence about our plans for execution for the back end of the year and to adjust to the external macroeconomic levers that we had to adjust to in Q1 and for the back end of the year.

So with that, thank you all, and we'll keep you obviously posted about further instances, if we do, later on this year at investment day. We have a lot of things to share with everyone that we've shared today with new business, new initiatives, and we are obviously very happy to share more about that.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.