Gates Industrial Corporation PLC (GTES) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Gates Industrial Corporation Q2 2025 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待。我叫艾瑞克，今天將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加蓋茲工業公司2025年第二季財報電話會議。 （接線生指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Rich Kwas, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話轉給投資人關係副總裁 Rich Kwas。請講。

Greetings and thank you for joining us on our second quarter 2025 earnings call. I'll briefly cover our non-GAAP and forward-looking language before passing the call over to our CEO, Ivo Jurek, who will be followed by Brooks Mallard, our CFO.

大家好，感謝您參加我們2025年第二季的財報電話會議。我將簡要介紹我們的非公認會計準則和前瞻性措辭，然後將電話交給我們的執行長Ivo Jurek，之後是財務長Brooks Mallard。

Before the market opened today, we published our second quarter 2025 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.gates.com. Our call this morning is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation. On this call we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful in evaluating our performance. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and the slide presentation, each of which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

今天開市前，我們發布了2025年第二季業績。您可以在我們的網站 investors.gates.com 上取得該新聞稿。今天早上的電話會議將進行網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示。在本次電話會議上，我們將參考一些我們認為有助於評估績效的非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標。歷史非公認會計準則財務指標的對帳表已包含在收益報告和幻燈片簡報中，您可以在我們網站的「投資者關係」版塊中取得。

Please refer now to slide 2 of the presentation, which provides a reminder that our remarks will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in other filings we make with the SEC, including our Q1 quarterly report on Form 10-Q that was filed in April 2025. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

請參閱簡報的第二張投影片，其中提醒您，我們的評論將包含《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險，可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些風險包括但不限於我們在最近的10-K表格年度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述的事項，包括我們於2025年4月提交的10-Q表格第一季報告。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務。

This quarter, we will be attending the Jefferies Industrials Conference, the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference and the RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference all in September and look forward to meeting many of you. Before we start, please note all comparisons are against the prior year period unless stated otherwise.

本季度，我們將參加9月份的傑富瑞工業年會、摩根士丹利拉古納年會以及加拿大皇家銀行資本市場全球工業年會，期待與各位見面。在開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，所有比較數據均為去年同期數據。

And now I'll turn it over to Ivo.

現在我將把時間交給 Ivo。

Thank you, Rich. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our call today. Let's begin on slide 3 of the presentation. In the second quarter, Gates delivered solid results as revenues outperformed our guidance, supported by more favorable currency trends. Core revenue performance was in line with our April guidance. Core growth in our replacement channel was up, supported by low single-digit growth in both automotive and industrial. In the industrial end markets, personal mobility had another quarter of double-digit growth and off-highway was flat with growth in agriculture, offsetting a decline in construction.

謝謝，Rich。大家早安，感謝您今天的電話會議。我們從簡報的第三張投影片開始。在第二季度，蓋茲公司取得了穩健的業績，收入超出了我們的預期，這得益於更有利的貨幣趨勢。核心收入表現與我們4月的預期一致。在汽車和工業領域均實現低個位數成長的推動下，我們替換通路的核心成長有所上升。在工業終端市場，個人移動出行再次實現了兩位數成長，非公路用車市場與農業市場持平，抵消了建築業的下滑。

We delivered solid operating performance in the quarter with adjusted EBITDA margin solidly exceeding 22%, in line with our expectations. Gross margin expanded 40 basis points, and we continue to make progress with our various enterprise initiatives. Our balance sheet continues to trend towards our short-term target of below 2x net leverage. Our net leverage declined to 2.2x at the quarter end. Our free cash flow grew year-over-year. We have updated our 2025 guidance, raising our adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $780 million and our adjusted EPS midpoint to $1.48. We have maintained our core growth midpoint of 1.5% and narrowed the range. Brooks will discuss the updated guidance in more detail later in the presentation.

本季度，我們的營運表現穩健，調整後EBITDA利潤率穩居22%以上，符合預期。毛利率提升了40個基點，各項企業措施也持續推進。我們的資產負債表持續朝著淨槓桿率低於2倍的短期目標邁進。截至本季末，我們的淨槓桿率已降至2.2倍。我們的自由現金流年增。我們已更新2025年業績指引，將調整後EBITDA中點上調至7.8億美元，調整後每股盈餘中點上調至1.48美元。我們維持核心成長中點1.5%的水平，並縮窄了區間。布魯克斯將在稍後的演示中更詳細地討論更新後的指引。

We continue to execute well in an uncertain macro environment, and we are focused on what we can control. Our in-region, for-region operational structure is proving itself effective as the enacted tariffs continue to fluctuate, and we have been able to mitigate the impact to our business.

在充滿不確定性的宏觀環境下，我們依然表現良好，並專注於我們能夠掌控的領域。隨著現行關稅持續波動，我們區域內、區域外的營運架構已證明行之有效，我們已能夠減輕其對業務的影響。

Please turn to slide 4. Second quarter total sales were $884 million, which represented a 0.6% decline on a core basis. Foreign currency was slightly positive versus the prior year period. During the second quarter, underlying demand conditions for our products were as expected. We experienced strong growth in personal mobility, which we had anticipated at the start of the year. Our replacement channels were constructive, posting low single-digit growth. Notably, the industrial replacement channel realized positive core growth for the first time since Q1 2023. Our automotive end market was approximately flat with growth in auto replacement offset by a decline in auto OEM.

請翻到幻燈片4。第二季總銷售額為8.84億美元，核心銷售額下降0.6%。外匯匯率與去年同期相比略有上漲。第二季度，我們產品的潛在需求狀況符合預期。個人行動旅遊業務強勁成長，這與我們年初的預期一致。我們的替換管道表現良好，實現了低個位數成長。值得注意的是，工業替換通路自2023年第一季以來首次實現了核心銷售額正成長。我們的汽車終端市場基本上持平，汽車替換業務的成長被汽車原廠設備製造商業務的下滑所抵消。

Additionally, industrial OEM sales were under pressure, primarily due to soft demand in construction and on-highway. Adjusted EBITDA was $199 million with adjusted EBITDA margin coming in at 22.5%, a decrease of 30 basis points. Of note, a onetime $7 million gain on a real estate transaction recognized in the year ago period had an 80-basis-point impact on the adjusted EBITDA margin comparison. Gross margin was 40.8% in the quarter and has remained above 40% for five consecutive quarters despite uneven demand trends. We continue to progress towards our midterm margin targets for both gross profit margin and adjusted EBITDA margin.

此外，工業OEM銷售承壓，主要原因是建築和公路車輛需求疲軟。調整後EBITDA為1.99億美元，調整後EBITDA利潤率為22.5%，下降了30個基點。值得注意的是，去年同期確認的一筆700萬美元的房地產交易一次性收益對調整後EBITDA利潤率的影響為80個基點。本季毛利率為40.8%，儘管需求趨勢不均衡，但已連續五個季度維持在40%以上。我們繼續朝著毛利率和調整後EBITDA利潤率的中期利潤率目標邁進。

Adjusted earnings per share was $0.39, an increase of approximately 8%. Underlying operating performance contributed $0.04, partially offset by the nonrecurring real estate gain of $0.02 recognized in the year ago period and unfavorable foreign exchange of $0.01. Lower interest expense and lower share count contributed about $0.02 on a combined basis.

調整後每股收益為0.39美元，成長約8%。基本經營績效貢獻了0.04美元，但被去年同期確認的0.02美元非經常性房地產收益和0.01美元不利匯率影響部分抵銷。利息支出減少和股份數量減少合計貢獻了約0.02美元。

On slide 5, we'll review our segment highlights. In the Power Transmission segment, we generated revenues of $550 million in the quarter and were up slightly on a core basis. High single-digit growth in industrial OEM sales was mostly offset by a decline in automotive OEM sales. Personal Mobility grew 18% in the quarter, and we continue to execute well on the ramp-up of new design wins. The replacement channel was stable with slight growth year-over-year. We are investing in our commercial front end and innovation in areas of strategic growth potential to position the company to capitalize on opportunities ahead of us.

在第五張投影片中，我們將回顧各部門的亮點。在動力傳動部門，我們本季實現了5.5億美元的收入，核心業務收入略有成長。工業OEM銷售額的高個位數成長大部分被汽車OEM銷售額的下降所抵銷。個人行動旅遊部門本季成長了18%，我們繼續在新設計訂單的提升方面表現良好。替換管道保持穩定，較去年同期略有成長。我們正在投資商業前端和具有策略性成長潛力領域的創新，以使公司能夠抓住未來的機會。

In the Fluid Power segment, our sales were $334 million, which translated to a 2.5% decrease on a core basis. End market dynamics were mixed in the quarter. On Highway was incrementally weaker as commercial truck production forecast have been revised lower, particularly in North America. Softer construction demand continued. However, this was partially offset by low single-digit growth in agriculture, which is the first positive read since Q4 2022. We believe the ag market is close to the bottom of the current destocking cycle.

在流體動力領域，我們的銷售額為3.34億美元，核心銷售額下降2.5%。本季終端市場表現喜憂參半。由於商用卡車產量預測下調，尤其是在北美地區，公路用車市場表現略有疲軟。建築需求持續疲軟。然而，農業市場低個位數成長部分抵消了這一疲軟，這是自2022年第四季以來的首次正成長。我們認為，農業市場已接近目前去庫存週期的底部。

Demand in replacement business was healthy, supported by automotive and industrial, which each grew low single digits. Industrial OEM sales declined low double digits on a core basis. Additionally, we are beginning to see a meaningful acceleration of quoting and booking activity in the data center market, which we expect to positively benefit the Fluid Power segment towards end of this year and mainly as we enter 2026.

替換業務需求健康，受汽車和工業領域支撐，兩類業務均實現低個位數成長。工業OEM核心銷售額則出現低兩位數下降。此外，我們開始看到資料中心市場的報價和預訂活動顯著加速，預計這將在今年年底以及進入2026年之際對流體動力部門產生積極影響。

Adjusted EBITDA margin for the Power Transmission segment declined 50 basis points year-over-year, partly due to higher spending on research and development projects to support new product development in personal mobility and industrial chain development. Fluid Power expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 10 basis points and benefited from more stable revenue performance in the off-road markets and favorable replacement activity, partially offset by investments in data center initiatives.

動力傳動業務部門調整後EBITDA利潤率年減50個基點，部分原因是用於支持個人出行領域新產品開發和產業鏈發展的研發項目支出增加。流體動力業務部門調整後EBITDA利潤率成長10個基點，受益於非公路用車市場收入表現更加穩定以及車輛更換活動良好，但資料中心專案的投資部分抵消了這一影響。

I will now pass the call over to Brooks for further comments on our results.

我現在將把電話轉給布魯克斯，請他對我們的結果發表進一步的評論。

Thank you, Ivo. I'll begin on slide 6 and review our core sales performance by region. Our key Asian geographies grew, contributing nicely to the quarter. This was offset by mixed macro conditions in the Americas and EMEA. In North America, core sales declined 1.3% and were primarily affected by lower OEM demand. Industrial OEM channel sales decreased low teens and were most impacted by lower demand in construction and on-highway. North American replacement channel sales expanded low single digits, led by mid-single-digit growth in industrial replacement, demonstrating a gradually improving trend. Auto replacement increased low single digits. At the end market level, personal mobility and diversified industrial were solid contributors.

謝謝Ivo。我將從第6張投影片開始，按地區回顧我們的核心銷售表現。我們主要的亞洲地區實現了成長，為本季做出了良好的貢獻。但這被美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區好壞參半的宏觀環境所抵消。在北美，核心銷售額下降了1.3%，主要受到OEM需求下降的影響。工業OEM渠道銷售額下降了10%左右，主要受到建築和公路需求下降的影響。北美替換通路銷售額實現了低個位數成長，其中工業替換銷售額實現了中等個位數成長，顯示出逐步改善的趨勢。汽車替換銷售額也實現了低個位數成長。在終端市場層面，個人出行和多元化工業是強勁的貢獻者。

In EMEA, core sales fell just over 1%. OEM sales were down mid-single digits with automotive weakness more than offsetting low single-digit growth in industrial. Replacement sales were mixed with automotive replacement core growth in the low single digits and industrial replacement down mid-single digits. The energy and diversified industrial end markets were also down year-over-year.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，核心銷售額下降略高於1%。 OEM（原始設備製造商）銷售額下降了中等個位數，汽車業務的疲軟足以抵消工業業務低個位數的成長。替換品銷售額漲跌互現，汽車替換品核心銷售額成長低個位數，工業替換品銷售額下降了中個位數。能源和多元化工業終端市場也較去年同期下降。

East Asia and India posted approximately 4% core growth and saw growth across all industrial end markets. Automotive OEM sales were down slightly, but this was more than offset by mid-teens growth in automotive replacement. China core sales expanded slightly year-over-year with growth in industrial end markets, partially offset by declines in automotive. South America core sales declined low single digits.

東亞和印度地區核心銷售額成長約4%，所有工業終端市場均成長。汽車原廠件銷售額略有下降，但汽車替換產品銷售額的中位數成長足以抵銷這一下降。中國地區核心銷售額較去年同期略有成長，工業終端市場成長，但汽車市場銷售額的下滑部分抵銷了這一成長。南美地區核心銷售額出現低個位數下降。

On slide 7, we lay out the key drivers of our year-over-year change in adjusted earnings per share. Underlying operating performance contributed to approximately $0.04 per share, driven by gross margin expansion. The operating performance was offset by a $0.02 headwind from the nonrecurring favorable benefit realized in the prior year period. Foreign exchange was a $0.01 drag on earnings per share. Lower interest expense and a lower share count contributed $0.02 on a combined basis.

在第七張幻燈片中，我們列出了調整後每股收益同比變化的關鍵驅動因素。受毛利率成長的推動，基礎營運績效貢獻了約0.04美元每股收益。去年同期實現的非經常性獲利帶來的0.02美元的不利因素抵銷了營運表現。外匯對每股收益造成0.01美元的拖累。利息支出減少和股份數量減少合計貢獻了0.02美元每股收益。

Slide 8 offers an overview of our cash flow performance and balance sheet metrics for the second quarter. Our free cash flow was $74 million, growing 11% year-over-year and represented 73% conversion to adjusted net income. Our last 12 months free cash flow conversion is also trending up, reaching 80% in the quarter. Our net leverage ratio declined to 2.2x, which was a 0.1x improvement compared to the prior year period as well as the first quarter. Our cash balance continues to build and exceeded $700 million in the quarter. Furthermore, we intend to pay down an additional $100 million of gross debt at the end of July. Through a balanced capital deployment strategy, we believe we are on track to reduce our net leverage below 2x by year-end 2025. Our trailing 12-month return on invested capital was 21.3%, and we continue to invest in high-return internal projects that we believe will improve our competitive position.

幻燈片8概述了我們第二季的現金流量表現和資產負債表指標。我們的自由現金流為7,400萬美元，年增11%，其中73%轉化為調整後淨收入。過去12個月，我們的自由現金流轉換率也呈現上升趨勢，本季達到80%。我們的淨槓桿率下降至2.2倍，較去年同期及第一季均下降0.1倍。我們的現金餘額持續增加，本季已超過7億美元。此外，我們計劃在7月底償還1億美元的額外總債務。透過均衡的資本配置策略，我們相信我們預計在2025年底前將淨槓桿率降至2倍以下。我們過去12個月的投資資本回報率為21.3%，並且我們將繼續投資於我們認為將提升我們競爭地位的高回報內部專案。

Turning to our updated 2025 guidance on slide 9. We have increased our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share guidance at the midpoint. We are updating our full year 2025 core revenue growth expectation to be in the range of 0.5% to 2.5%, maintaining the midpoint at 1.5%. We have increased our adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $765 million to $795 million, a $15 million increase at the midpoint due to more favorable foreign currency trends since the beginning of the year.

回到投影片9上我們更新後的2025年指引。我們已上調調整後EBITDA和調整後每股盈餘指引的中位數。我們將2025年全年核心營收成長預期更新為0.5%至2.5%之間，中位數維持在1.5%。我們已將調整後EBITDA指引上調至7.65億美元至7.95億美元之間，中位數上調了1,500萬美元，這得益於年初以來外匯趨勢的進一步利好。

Please recall, heading into the year, we had about a $10 million profit headwind on foreign exchange relating to favorable hedge impacts that we realized in 2024. As FX rates have swung to be favorable from a translation perspective, we have seen it roll through and have adjusted our guidance upward $15 million. Embedded in the adjustment is the realization of some actual and expected unfavorable FX hedge impacts that we should realize in 2025.

回想一下，年初時，我們因2024年實現的有利對沖影響，在外匯方面遭遇了約1000萬美元的利潤逆風。隨著匯率從折算角度轉向有利，我們見證了逆風的蔓延，並將預期上調了1500萬美元。此次調整也反映了一些實際和預期的不利外匯對沖影響，這些影響預計將在2025年實現。

We now expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.44 per share to $1.52 per share, an increase of $0.04 at the midpoint. Our guidance for capital expenditures and free cash flow conversion remains unchanged. For the third quarter, we estimate total revenues to be in the range of $845 million to $885 million and core revenues to be up approximately 3% at the midpoint. For the third quarter, we expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to increase in a range of 50 basis points to 90 basis points compared to Q3 2024.

我們目前預計調整後每股盈餘將在1.44美元至1.52美元之間，中間值上調0.04美元。我們對資本支出和自由現金流轉換的指引保持不變。我們預計第三季總營收將在8.45億美元至8.85億美元之間，核心營收中間值將成長約3%。我們預計第三季調整後EBITDA利潤率將較2024年第三季成長50至90個基點。

Before I turn the call over to Ivo, I'll provide a brief update on tariffs. At current tariff rates, we now expect an annualized impact of approximately $50 million and anticipate incurring approximately 35% to 40% of the impact in the second half of 2025. We intend to cover 85% to 90% of the projected impact of price and employ various operational and supply chain actions to cover the remainder. We continue to expect to be neutral for the year on a dollar basis.

在將電話轉給伊沃之前，我將簡要介紹關稅的最新情況。依照目前的關稅稅率，我們預期年化影響約為5,000萬美元，其中約35%至40%的影響將在2025年下半年產生。我們計劃涵蓋預計價格影響的85%至90%，並採取各種營運和供應鏈措施來彌補剩餘部分。我們預計今年的美元影響將保持中性。

I will now turn the call back to Ivo.

我現在將電話轉回伊沃。

Thank you, Brooks. On slide 10, we outline our data center product portfolio and the types of customers we are presently supporting. On the left side, you see a sample of our product portfolio. We launched our Data Master Hose last year and added larger sizes to accommodate the increased flow requirements required by the industry. Earlier this month, we introduced our universal quick disconnect fitting specified for the data center environment in multiple sizes. Our electric pump is gaining traction, and we continue to scale up pump portfolio to accommodate the higher flow rates required in liquid cool data centers while preserving a compact size and energy efficiency. On the right side, you see we are serving a wide array of customers from data center operators to service contractors and everyone in between. Currently, we are in negotiations with a major hyperscaler to supply in 2026.

謝謝，布魯克斯。第10張投影片概述了我們的資料中心產品組合以及我們目前支援的客戶類型。左側是我們產品組合的範例。我們去年推出了Data Master軟管，並增加了更大尺寸的產品，以滿足行業日益增長的流量需求。本月初，我們推出了多種尺寸的資料中心專用通用快速接頭。我們的電動幫浦日益受到青睞，我們將繼續擴展幫浦產品組合，以滿足液冷資料中心對更高流量的需求，同時保持緊湊的尺寸和更高的能源效率。右側是我們服務於從資料中心營運商到服務承包商等各類客戶的廣泛客戶。目前，我們正在與一家大型超大規模資料中心營運商洽談，計劃在2026年為其供貨。

We have also secured a design win for our data center electric pump with an Asian-based EMS supplier in support of a large US-based server manufacturer that we estimate could be worth multiple millions of dollars in revenues as we get into full production in 2026. We have developed relationships with service contractors and engineering firms that are actively involved in the build-out of data centers and one additional business to supply our Data Master Megaflex hose in support of data center campus project located in Texas. Additionally, we have established close working relationships with the critical infrastructure providers to the data center market and anticipate having additional design wins awarded through these partners in the near future. We are pleased with the momentum in our product development and commercial coverage, and we believe that our revenue base is poised to inflect nicely over the next couple of years.

我們還與一家亞洲EMS供應商成功簽訂了數據中心電動泵的設計合同，以支援美國大型伺服器製造商。我們估計，隨著2026年全面投產，該合約可能帶來數百萬美元的收入。我們與積極參與資料中心建設的服務承包商和工程公司建立了合作關係，並獲得了另一項業務，即為位於德克薩斯州的資料中心園區專案供應Data Master Megaflex軟管。此外，我們還與資料中心市場的關鍵基礎設施提供者建立了密切的合作關係，並預計在不久的將來將透過這些合作夥伴獲得更多設計合約。我們對產品開發和商業覆蓋的良好勢頭感到滿意，並相信我們的收入基礎將在未來幾年實現良好成長。

On slide 11, I'll provide a brief update on our personal mobility business. We continue to make investments to enter new applications and support new product development as well as expand and scale commercial competencies to drive penetration. Our innovation efforts are translating into relevance across new applications. We have product offerings available for e-mountain bikes and value e-bikes, relatively new markets for us that are gaining traction and augment our mid- to long-term penetration opportunity. Our innovation efforts are centered on adding incremental performance at lower cost. At Gates, we are redefining how designers achieve transmission of power to motion while enhancing look and feel. Our opportunity pipeline currently exceeds $300 million, and we believe the business is well positioned to exceed $300 million of revenues by 2028, which implies a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30%.

在第11張投影片上，我將簡要介紹我們的個人行動出行業務。我們持續投資，以進入新的應用領域，支持新產品開發，並拓展和擴展商業能力，從而推動滲透。我們的創新努力正在轉化為新應用領域的相關性。我們提供適用於電動登山車和經濟型電動自行車的產品，這兩個市場對我們來說相對較新，但正在獲得發展動力，並增強了我們中長期滲透的機會。我們的創新工作重點是以更低的成本提升效能。在蓋茨，我們正在重新定義設計師如何實現動力與運動的轉換，同時提升外觀和體驗。我們目前的機會管道超過3億美元，我們相信，到2028年，該業務的收入將超過3億美元，這意味著複合年增長率約為30%。

I'll summarize our thoughts and views on slide 12. First, we believe that we are managing the business well through the current economic uncertainties. We are preparing the company for an anticipated acceleration in core growth over the midterm. Recovery in personal mobility is well underway, and we anticipate growth to inflect higher in the second half of the year. Our data center opportunity pipeline continues to expand, now approaching $150 million. The auto replacement market remains constructive, and we see further opportunity for us to leverage our brand, product portfolio and fulfillment capabilities to drive further market outgrowth. Of note, we believe the industrial off-road markets have started to bottom, and we realized core growth in agriculture for the first time in two years this past quarter. Concurrently, we remain highly focused on improving our gross margins through a mix of material cost savings, footprint optimization and productivity.

我將在第12張投影片上總結我們的想法和觀點。首先，我們相信，在目前的經濟不確定性下，我們管理業務的成效良好。我們正在為公司在中期預期的核心成長加速做好準備。個人出行正在穩步復甦，我們預計下半年成長將進一步加快。我們的資料中心業務機會管道持續擴大，目前已接近1.5億美元。汽車替換市場仍然保持良好勢頭，我們看到更多機會，可以利用我們的品牌、產品組合和交付能力來推動市場進一步成長。值得注意的是，我們認為工業非公路用車市場已開始觸底，而上個季度，我們在農業領域實現了兩年來的首次核心成長。同時，我們仍然高度專注於透過多種方式來提高毛利率，包括材料成本節約、優化佈局和生產效率。

Second, our business possesses multiple secular growth opportunities. In personal mobility, the design wins we have achieved over the last couple of years are fueling outgrowth as the two-wheeler market has stabilized. Moreover, our opportunity pipeline exceeds $300 million, which provides us good visibility to our future outgrowth potential given our historical win rates. As we discussed previously on the data center slide, we are beginning to book relevant wins. We believe the expansion of the liquid cooling market, coupled with the product development and people investments we are making positions us to organically grow business nicely through the end of the decade. Both personal mobility and data centers add a secular growth algorithm to our shareholder value proposition. Lastly, we anticipate our investments in the new belts and sprockets are going to bring belt drives close to prosperity with chains over the next few years and potentially unlock a meaningful uptick in the chain-to-belt conversions across stationary industrial automation applications. Our new product innovation pipeline is growing to support new applications as well as to improve existing ones. And I am optimistic that our vitality rate is poised to increase nicely over the midterm.

其次，我們的業務擁有多個長期成長機會。在個人出行領域，隨著兩輪車市場趨於穩定，過去幾年我們所取得的設計成果正在推動業務成長。此外，我們的機會儲備超過3億美元，鑑於我們過往的成功率，這讓我們對未來的成長潛力有了清晰的認識。正如我們之前在資料中心幻燈片中討論的那樣，我們正開始獲得相關的成功。我們相信，液體冷卻市場的擴張，加上我們正在進行的產品開發和人才投資，將使我們在未來十年內實現業務的良好有機成長。個人出行和資料中心都將為我們的股東價值主張增添長期成長演算法。最後，我們預計，對新型皮帶和鏈輪的投資將在未來幾年內使皮帶傳動與鏈條傳動接近繁榮，並有可能在固定式工業自動化應用中，推動鏈條到皮帶的轉換量大幅上升。我們不斷擴展的新產品創新儲備，以支持新的應用並改進現有的應用。我樂觀地認為，我們的活力率將在中期內大幅提升。

Third, our balance sheet continues to strengthen, which enhances our capital allocation optionality. While our equity valuation has improved over the past several quarters, we believe our shares remain undervalued and share repurchases are a good use of excess capital. We have taken a balanced approach to capital allocation historically and intend to reduce our gross debt in Q3 and made further progress towards our goal of lowering our gross debt below $2 billion.

第三，我們的資產負債表持續增強，這增強了我們的資本配置選擇。雖然我們的股票估值在過去幾季有所改善，但我們認為股價仍然被低估，而股票回購是對過剩資本的有效利用。我們歷來採取均衡的資本配置策略，並計劃在第三季減少總債務，目前已在將總債務降至 20 億美元以下的目標上取得了進一步進展。

Before taking your questions, I want to thank the 14,000 Global Gates associates for their effort and hard work towards satisfying our customers' needs on a consistent basis.

在回答您的問題之前，我要感謝 14,000 名 Global Gates 員工為持續滿足客戶需求所付出的努力和辛勤工作。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給接線生進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）Nigel Coe，Wolfe Research。

So I think just the first question would be the confidence and conviction in that pivot to growth in the third quarter, the 3%. So just curious to what degree you're seeing -- obviously, the comps are getting easier, so that's one factor. But what are you seeing in order rates, I don't know, backlog? And then maybe just the incremental price contribution in 3Q versus 2Q? Just any help there would be welcome.

所以我認為第一個問題就是對第三季實現3%的成長的信心和信念。我很好奇您看到了什麼程度的提升——顯然，可比數據正在變得更容易，所以這是一個因素。但是，您看到的訂單率、積壓訂單量如何？然後，也許只是第三季相對於第二季的增量價格貢獻？任何幫助我都歡迎。

Yes. Nigel, thank you for your question. Look, our order rates have been as we have anticipated as we kind of entered Q2 and kind of as we exited July. We continue to see a nice portion of our end market that seem to be troughing with maybe the on-highway exposure continuing to still decelerate a bit, but that's probably the primary market maybe with oil and gas that are still kind of going down to a degree.

是的。 Nigel，謝謝你的提問。你看，我們的訂單率在進入第二季和七月末時都達到了預期。我們繼續看到很大一部分終端市場似乎正在觸底，公路業務的敞口可能仍在繼續減速，但這可能是主要市場，石油和天然氣市場可能仍在一定程度上下降。

But if you think about industrial replacement, industrial replacement is seeing slight improvements in demand. Automotive replacement remains stable and very accretive for us, obviously, globally. And personal mobility, as I've indicated, has accelerated meaningfully post kind of a two-year destock that we have dealt with last year and the year before.

但如果你考慮工業替代，工業替代的需求正在略有改善。汽車替代保持穩定，並且顯然在全球範圍內對我們具有很大的增值潛力。正如我之前指出的，在我們去年和前年經歷了兩年的去庫存之後，個人出行需求顯著加速。

So our degree of confidence is reasonably good that we will start seeing a very nice accretion in growth rates. I mean it will be steady from where we sit. Yes, as you indicated, more -- maybe easier comp is a part of it. Personal mobility is going to continue to power forward and accelerate, as I've indicated, into the second half. We got a little bit of price. So all in, we feel reasonably positively about -- obviously, about the guidance that we have provided the Street.

因此，我們有相當的信心，相信成長率將開始大幅成長。我的意思是，從目前的水平來看，成長率將保持穩定。是的，正如您所說，更多——或許更容易的競爭是其中的一部分。正如我之前所說，個人出遊將繼續強勁成長，並在下半年加速發展。我們獲得了一些價格優勢。總而言之，我們對我們提供給華爾街的指引感到相當樂觀。

That's great. And my follow-on is (inaudible) a surprise on data centers. I mean, really appreciate the color on the pipeline. I think you've said in the past, Ivo, that this could easily be similar scale to the personal mobility market, so call it, $100 million, $150 million in the next two or three years. Has your view changed on that opportunity set based on what you've seen out there?

太棒了。接下來我想問的是（聽不清楚）資料中心方面的一個驚喜。我的意思是，我非常欣賞你對未來發展規劃的展望。 Ivo，我記得你以前說過，這個市場很容易達到與個人行動市場類似的規模，也就是說，在未來兩三年內達到1億到1.5億美元。根據你所看到的，你對這個機會的看法是否改變了？

I want to be very careful how I represent it, Nigel, but I would probably say that I maybe see it even more bullishly than at that point in time. Obviously, there's no linear path from where we sit today up. But look, we are invoicing dramatically more revenue today than we have done prior year from a very small base, obviously. But the amount of programs that we are involved with across the portfolio that we have delineated, and I would be remiss if I didn't throw our belts in there that go into the industrial HVACs. So our entire portfolio of products participate in data center cooling.

奈傑爾，我得非常謹慎地表述，但我可能會說，我對此的預期可能比當時更樂觀。顯然，從我們目前的情況來看，未來並沒有直線性的發展路徑。不過，你看，我們今天的營收顯然比去年同期大幅成長，而基數卻很小。我們參與的專案數量已經涵蓋了整個產品組合，如果我不把工業暖通空調（HVAC）領域的專案也算進去，那我就是失職了。所以我們的整個產品組合都參與了資料中心的冷卻。

And I think what the inflection that we see, Nigel, is driven by the more rapid adoption of liquid cooling now as everybody is realizing that just fair is not going to get you there. That's evolving super-fast and it's putting actually quite a bit of strain on our organization, and that's why we spoke a little bit about more investment to be able to keep up with it, to sample, to get certified, qualified, put on a spec. It's looking quite all right for us. So I think that certainly that $150 million that I spoke in the past is totally doable.

奈傑爾，我認為我們看到的這種轉變是由液體冷卻技術更快的普及所驅動的，因為每個人都意識到，僅僅追求公平並不能讓你達到目標。液體冷卻技術發展速度極快，實際上給我們的組織帶來了相當大的壓力，這就是為什麼我們談到了增加投資，以便能夠跟上它的發展步伐，進行樣品測試、獲得認證、獲得資質，並製定規範。對我們來說，這看起來還不錯。所以我認為我之前提到的1.5億美元是完全可行的。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Just want to circle up on the auto OE softness. And look, everyone is seeing that. But what I think is unique about Gates is historically, you've always had strategically selectivity in terms of what auto OE first-fit business you would go after. So is the softness in any way reflected on some of the discretionary business that you have declined to pursue? Or is it entirely just lower production?

我想簡單談談汽車原廠配件業務的疲軟。你看，大家都看到了這一點。但我認為蓋茲的獨特之處在於，從歷史上看，你們在選擇汽車原廠配件首次適配業務方面始終保持著戰略上的選擇性。那麼，這種疲軟是否在某種程度上反映在你們拒絕開展的一些非必需業務上？還是僅僅因為產量下降？

Thank you for your question, Deane. I think that you're correct. I've spoken many years about selective participation, and we continue with that philosophy moving forward. It's really not that important part of our revenue stream. Again, to remind everybody, we've taken it from about 17%, 18% at the IPO down to less than 10% presently, and we will continue with our process of selective participation. We have a tremendous amount of growth initiatives organically focused that we believe will continue to dilute further that revenue mix.

謝謝你的提問，迪恩。我認為你說得對。我多年來一直在談論選擇性參與，我們將繼續秉持這個理念。這其實並不是我們收入來源中那麼重要的部分。再次提醒大家，我們已經將其從IPO時的17%、18%左右降至目前的不到10%，並且我們將繼續推行選擇性參與的流程。我們有大量專注於有機成長的計劃，我們認為這些計劃將繼續進一步稀釋我們的收入結構。

But I would also say that there is a weakness in -- particularly in Europe in production. North America was slightly -- maybe slightly less in volumes than what I think the original assumptions used to be, but it's not been the issue. The issue has been really more around Europe and the impact, I think, of tariffs on the production that was especially targeted for exports.

但我還要說的是，尤其是在歐洲，生產方面確實有弱點。北美的產量可能比我最初的預期略低，但這不是問題所在。問題其實更在於歐洲，以及關稅對出口產品的影響。

That's really helpful. And just second question is I found it really interesting your point on the chain-to-belt conversion. Talking about how belts and sprockets are kind of reaching a point where there's a -- they're equal to the kind of legacy chain costs. So what's been driving that? -- maybe some numbers around how those two cost points compare? And does that make it even more compelling and accelerating this whole conversion?

這真的很有幫助。第二個問題是，我發現你關於鏈條到皮帶轉換的觀點非常有趣。談到皮帶和鏈輪的成本已經達到了與傳統鏈條成本相當的水平。那麼是什麼推動了這個趨勢呢？或許可以列舉一些關於這兩個成本點的比較數據？這是否會使其更具吸引力，並加速整個轉換過程？

Yes. Thank you for the question. It's a little more complex question, and I'll try to be brief. Look, when we started this journey in 2018, 2019, the cost premium of belt drive to a chain drive was about 2.5x of a chain drive if you use a belt drive. But the payback on switching away from chain drive to a belt drive was very, very good because of the value we provide uptime, no need to tension the drive, no need to lubricate, lower energy consumption. So the payback was very good for installed base. But when we've talked to machine builders, machine builders really wanted us to get much closer to the cost parity so that when they design belt drive in, there would not be a cost premium. And as you can imagine, there are two different end users and OEM that's building the equipment that's got different value drivers versus the end user that's utilizing the apparatus that's really more focused on efficiency and reduced maintenance amount.

是的，謝謝你的提問。這個問題比較複雜，我盡量簡短地講一下。 2018、2019年我們剛開始這項技術革新時，皮帶傳動比鏈條傳動的成本溢價大約是鏈條傳動的2.5倍（如果使用皮帶傳動）。但從鏈條傳動轉換為皮帶傳動後，回報非常豐厚，因為我們提供的是正常運作時間，無需張緊傳動裝置，無需潤滑，能耗更低。所以，就現有客戶而言，回報非常可觀。但當我們與機器製造商溝通時，他們真正希望的是，我們能夠更接近成本平價，這樣當他們設計皮帶傳動時，就不會出現成本溢價。你可以想像，最終用戶有兩種：一種是製造設備的原始設備製造商（OEM），他們有不同的價值驅動因素；另一種是使用設備的最終用戶，他們更注重效率和減少維護量。

So we've worked quite diligently over the last four or five years investing in alternative technologies of manufacturing, construction, and we are coming up with a sprocket technology that we believe is going to give us a rather substantial cost advantage and is the sprocket in particular, that is required to drive that cost down.

因此，在過去的四、五年裡，我們一直非常努力地投資於製造、建築的替代技術，我們正在開發一種鏈輪技術，我們相信這種技術將為我們帶來相當大的成本優勢，特別是鏈輪，這是降低成本所必需的。

And so while we are not at cost parity yet, and as I indicated in my prepared remarks, we are probably 12 to 24 months away from that. We believe that we are making rather meaningful progress with our cost structure and the technology evolution that will get us so much closer to that cost parity and open doors to adoption at the OEMs on the industrial side and stationary application side.

因此，雖然我們尚未達到成本平價，但正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我們可能還需要12到24個月的時間才能實現這一目標。我們相信，我們在成本結構和技術發展方面正在取得相當有意義的進展，這將使我們更接近成本平價，並為工業和固定應用領域的原始設備製造商（OEM）採用該技術打開大門。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc.

傑夫·哈蒙德，KeyBanc。

Just on this industrial recovery, I think you gave us some good color on the end markets. But outside of just ag bottoming, what other areas are you seeing kind of more signs that this kind of industrial replacement or industrial recovery is starting to take hold? And is it just simply getting clarity on tariffs or something else that's driving it?

就工業復甦而言，我認為您為我們提供了終端市場的良好前景。但是，除了農業觸底之外，您還看到了哪些其他領域的跡象，表明這種工業替代或工業復甦正在開始出現？只是關稅政策的明朗化，還是其他因素推動了這種復甦？

Yes. Jeff, I think that that's a terrific question. And I would probably try to, again, try to be brief here. Look, I think the demand environment is kind of evolving more or less as we anticipated when we entered the year. I mean, obviously, we didn't forecast tariffs that brought in tremendous amount of volatility and uncertainty in some of the things that we have been dealing with in Q2, and I think that people are kind of still processing about back half of the year. We're quite encouraged about ag. Again, ag was over 2, 2.5 years negative. So I think that you're starting to see some stability in there.

是的。傑夫，我覺得這個問題問得非常好。我可能還是想盡量簡短地回答。我認為需求環境的演變大致與我們年初預期的一致。我的意思是，顯然我們沒有預測到關稅，這給我們在第二季度處理的一些問題帶來了巨大的波動和不確定性，而且我認為大家還在消化去年下半年的情況。我們對農業情勢非常樂觀。農業在過去兩年半一直處於負成長狀態。所以我認為現在開始看到一些穩定。

PMI, PMIs have been terrible, obviously, as you know, kind of with the exception of a couple of months, it's maybe like 34 months that we have had negative PMI print that I think is starting to stabilize. It's still below 50, but it's starting to bring some stability. And my anticipation is -- and certainly that's -- when I look at our industrial replacement order rates, it would indicate that while it's not great, it's not decelerating. And actually, in Q2, we had a positive print on industrial replacement, which was quite good.

PMI數據一直很糟糕，顯然，如你所知，除了幾個月之外，大概有34個月的PMI數據都是負值，但我認為現在開始穩定了。它仍然低於50，但開始呈現一些穩定性。我的預期是——當然是這樣的——當我查看我們的工業替代訂單率時，它會顯示雖然增長不算太好，但並沒有放緩。實際上，在第二季度，我們的工業替代訂單率是正值，這相當不錯。

Off-road still remains a headwind, particularly in construction. On-road is incrementally worse. I would say that those two end markets are still not great. But our automotive replacement business continues to power forward, and it's quite positive, delivering a great deal of stability for our revenue stream historically and on a forward-going basis.

非公路車輛市場仍面臨挑戰，尤其是在建築領域。公路車輛市場則逐漸惡化。我想說，這兩個終端市場仍然表現不佳。但我們的汽車替換業務持續強勁發展，而且表現相當積極，為我們的收入來源帶來了極大的穩定性，無論是從歷史角度還是未來發展來看。

And auto is kind of around the edges, what we've anticipated, maybe a little worse in Europe, but it's hanging in there in Asia and maybe marginally worse in North America. And personal mobility is just super hot. It's rebounding nicely, and it's giving us the opportunity to offset some of the negative print in some of the other markets. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of color.

汽車市場正如我們預期的那樣，處於邊緣地帶，歐洲市場可能略差一些，但亞洲市場仍保持穩定，北美市場可能略差一些。個人出行市場則非常火爆，正在強勁反彈，這讓我們有機會抵消其他一些市場的負面影響。希望以上資訊能帶給大家一些參考。

That's good. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about buyback into the second half of the year and just the confidence that you hit your free cash flow conversion. I know there's -- some people have talked about benefits from the tax bill, but just confidence in hitting the free cash flow targets as well.

很好。您能否談談您對下半年回購股票的考慮，以及您對實現自由現金流轉換目標的信心？我知道有些人談到了稅收法案帶來的好處，但您也談到了對實現自由現金流目標的信心。

Yes. So look, I think from a buyback versus debt paydown, first of all, look, we take a balanced approach. We are committed to getting our gross debt below $2 billion. We're committed to getting our leverage below 2, right? And so that means we got to lock in some of the cash generation by paying down debt, which we're going to do in Q3. We still think our stock is undervalued. So stock buyback remains a good option for us. So from a capital deployment perspective, all options are on the table as we continue to generate cash.

是的。所以，我認為，首先，從回購和債務償還的角度來看，我們採取了平衡的做法。我們致力於將總債務控制在20億美元以下。我們致力於將槓桿率控制在2%以下，對吧？這意味著我們必須透過償還債務來鎖定部分現金流，我們將在第三季完成這項工作。我們仍然認為我們的股價被低估了。因此，股票回購對我們來說仍然是一個不錯的選擇。因此，從資本配置的角度來看，隨著我們繼續創造現金，所有選項都在考慮範圍內。

From generating our 90% cash conversion, look, over the past 1.5 years, we invested in working capital. We've improved our service levels dramatically. We think it's paid dividends for us, particularly on the replacement business. And now that, that's leveled off and some of our enterprise initiatives around supply chain are working, we feel like we'll be able to dial down that investment, certainly not increase it and dial it down some and drive working capital down and maintain our service levels and be able to serve our replacement customers as well as we ever have.

從實現90%的現金轉換率來看，在過去一年半里，我們投資了營運資本。我們的服務水準顯著提升。我們認為這給我們帶來了回報，尤其是在替換業務方面。現在，這一水平已經趨於平穩，我們圍繞供應鏈的一些企業舉措也開始發揮作用，我們覺得我們能夠減少這方面的投資，當然不會增加，而是會減少一些，從而降低營運資本，保持我們的服務水平，並能夠像以往一樣為我們的替換客戶提供優質的服務。

So we've got good conviction that not only can we continue to invest from a capital spending perspective, where we've been investing more over the past six quarters, but we can continue to deliver very nice cash generation and cash conversion for 2025 and onward.

因此，我們堅信，我們不僅可以從資本支出的角度繼續投資（過去六個季度我們一直在加大投資），而且我們還可以在 2025 年及以後繼續實現非常好的現金產生和現金轉換。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just the first question around the EBITDA margin outlook. So I think the second half guide is embedding a sort of high 30s operating leverage year-on-year in both quarters. I just wanted to make sure that, that's roughly accurate. And is that a good sort of placeholder when we start to think about 2026, assuming that, that sort of low single-digit organic sales growth backdrop can remain intact?

也許只是關於EBITDA利潤率前景的第一個問題。所以我認為下半年的業績指引中，兩季的營運槓桿比去年同期都達到了30%左右。我只是想確認一下，這大致準確。當我們開始考慮2026年時，假設這種低個位數的有機銷售成長背景能夠保持不變，這是否是一個很好的佔位符？

No, you're spot on. The kind of high 30s, almost a 40% leverage, both in how we're thinking about the back half of the year is where we should be. Yes, and I think about '26 and going forward, we're going to continue to drop through on core growth at kind of that mid-30s level plus the enterprise initiatives should put us in that kind of 40 handle range in terms of the drop-through on the additional sales. And you look at where our growth opportunities are in mobility, the replacement business is doing well, and that's a little bit of a favorable mix kicker in there. So we feel pretty confident about that from an incremental earnings perspective.

不，你說得對。 30%出頭的水平，接近40%的槓桿率，就我們今年下半年的預期而言，都是我們應該達到的水平。是的，我認為2026年及以後，我們的核心業務成長將繼續保持在30%左右的水平，再加上企業業務的舉措，額外銷售額的下降幅度應該會達到40%左右。再看看我們在行動領域的成長機會，替換業務表現良好，這是一個有利的組合因素。所以，從增量獲利的角度來看，我們對此非常有信心。

That's helpful. And then maybe one for Ivo more on the sort of demand backdrop. I guess one part is just have you seen anything interesting in terms of recent sort of cadence of demand moving around in the last month or two?

這很有幫助。然後，也許Ivo可以再問需求背景。我想，首先，在過去一兩個月裡，您是否注意到需求變化的節奏有什麼有趣的變化？

And then maybe related to that, when you look at your sort of half a dozen main end market verticals, have you changed the perspective on any of them today in terms of the year's outlook versus January or April? It sounded like perhaps On Highway North America is one that's changed for the worst. Any others to call out?

或許與此相關的是，當您審視您旗下的六個主要終端垂直市場時，與一月或四月相比，您是否改變了對其中任何一個市場的全年展望？聽起來，北美公路市場的情況似乎發生了最壞的變化。還有其他市場嗎？

Yes. Julian, not meaningfully. I think that the end markets are still around the edges, more or less, as you have described, I would just say maybe meaningfully mid-single-digit kind of a worse in On Highway, as I've described, the rest of the markets are kind of hanging in there.

是的。朱利安，沒那麼嚴重。我認為終端市場仍然處於邊緣地帶，或多或少，正如你所描述的，我只能說，在高速公路上，可能出現中等個位數的下降，就像我之前描述的，其他市場都還在堅持。

Look, we're speaking about markets, not about our opportunity to drive growth. So as an example, I take a look at mobility and what we have represented about mobility. I mean, the end units are not growing. We're just driving dramatic level of penetration post COVID destock. And so while the market may be remaining somewhat positive around the edges for us, we're delivering significant growth because of the design wins that we have won over the last couple of years.

瞧，我們談論的是市場，而不是我們推動成長的機會。舉個例子，我關注的是移動出行領域，以及我們一直以來所展現的移動出行理念。我的意思是，終端設備並沒有成長。我們只是在新冠疫情去庫存後大幅提升了滲透率。因此，儘管市場對我們而言可能仍處於邊緣狀態，但由於過去幾年我們贏得的設計訂單，我們實現了顯著的成長。

So I think that we are primarily focused on self-help, Julian, where we believe that we can deliver revenue above market growth rate. And that's really what we want to continue to demonstrate taking on board some of the feedback that we have been receiving over the last couple of years from the market. I would highlight that we do see in -- particularly in the data center liquid cooling market, there's kind of a feeding frenzy now. It's really quite amazing how much -- how many opportunities there are and just landing them -- and this will be an opportunity for us where unlike maybe some of the other traditional markets that Gates used to participate, we should start recognizing revenue reasonably quickly.

所以，朱利安，我認為我們主要專注於自主創新，我們相信我們能夠實現高於市場成長率的收入。這正是我們希望繼續展現的，我們將參考過去幾年從市場收到的一些回饋。我想強調的是，我們確實看到，尤其是在資料中心液體冷卻市場，現在出現了一種瘋狂的競爭態勢。機會如此之多，抓住機會如此之多，這真的令人驚嘆。這對我們來說是一個機遇，與蓋茲過去參與的其他一些傳統市場不同，我們應該能夠相當快地開始確認收入。

So we anticipated we're going to have some revenue from products that we're going to be ramping up actually in Q4. I mean it's not going to be massive, but it's going to be preproduction type revenue and then a meaningful step-up into 2026.

因此，我們預計第四季度我們會增加一些產品的收入。我的意思是，這不會是巨額收入，但會是預生產階段的收入，然後在2026年實現顯著成長。

Mike Halloran, Baird.

麥克·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

A couple of things, more follow-up than anything. One, I just want to clarify, you guys are -- other than maybe personal mobility, it doesn't sound like you're saying fundamentals are necessarily -- you're assuming in guidance an acceleration in underlying fundamentals, more steady as she goes, normal sequentials in the back half of the year against relatively easy comps and then layering on some growth initiatives. Is that a fair characterization?

有幾件事，比什麼都值得關注。首先，我想澄清一下，你們——除了個人出行之外，聽起來你們似乎並沒有說基本面必然如此——你們在指引中假設了基本面會加速發展，並且會更加穩定，下半年的環比增長會與相對容易的同店銷售相比保持正常，然後會推出一些增長計劃。這種描述合理嗎？

Yes, it is.

是的。

Okay. And then second question on the data center side of things, just curious what the opportunity set looks like either organically or inorganically, either new product development or acquisitions layer on kind of broaden out the exposures there relative to what you're already doing. Obviously, very exciting. I'm curious if there's other tangential areas you see that complement what you're already pushing forward on.

好的。第二個問題是關於資料中心方面的，我很好奇，無論是透過有機發展還是非有機發展，無論是新產品開發還是收購，都能擴大您在現有業務方面的曝光度。顯然，這非常令人興奮。我很好奇您是否看到了其他與您正在推進的業務互補的領域。

Yes. Look, I think it's a terrific question. I would probably punt on the M&A side, to be honest with you, because our opportunity set organically is rather significant. I think that when we start talking about build-out of our portfolio about 1 year, 1.5 years back or whenever it was, we were kind of scoping certain penetration of liquid cooling of new data center space. I would venture to say that it's going to be dramatically bigger than what we thought that it will be a couple of years ago.

是的。我覺得這個問題問得真好。說實話，我可能會在併購方面押注，因為我們的機會組合本身就相當可觀。我想，大約一年前、一年半前，或更早的時候，當我們開始談論投資組合的擴張時，我們當時就大致在評估液冷技術在新資料中心空間的滲透率。我敢說，這個規模將比我們幾年前的預期大得多。

So in essence, I think that there's going to be a lot more liquid cooling penetration on a forward-going basis than I think anybody anticipated. We have built a really nice portfolio around the core competencies that we have as a company. So we are not really stretching ourselves and reaching out to any sort of adjacent technologies.

所以，本質上，我認為未來液體冷卻的滲透率將遠遠超出任何人的預期。我們圍繞著公司的核心競爭力建立了非常優秀的產品組合。因此，我們並沒有過度擴張，去接觸任何相關的技術。

We are just chopping wood and keeping our head down with core portfolio, tailoring our products around the requirements of liquid cooling, obviously, high degree of requirements, high reliability, precision, reliability of supply. Those are our core strengths to Gates Corporation. That's where we are good and we believe that we will have a meaningful opportunity to deliver nice growth as we move forward over the next 12, 24, 36 months.

我們只是在砍伐木材，專注於核心產品組合，根據液冷的需求客製化我們的產品，顯然，這些需求包括高要求、高可靠性、高精度和高供應可靠性。這些都是蓋茲公司的核心優勢。這正是我們的優勢所在，我們相信，在未來12、24、36個月內，我們將有機會實現良好的成長。

Damian Karas, UBS.

瑞銀的 Damian Karas。

It's actually Zach Walljasper on for Damian today. Just a quick question, clarifying the guidance for the year. I heard earlier comments like FX being a tailwind to the revision higher in EBITDA, but I was just curious -- or EBITDA margin. I was just curious FX versus the more operational efficiency in the nature?

今天實際上是 Zach Walljasper 代替 Damian 發言。我只想問一個簡單的問題，澄清一下今年的業績指引。我之前聽到一些評論，例如外匯是 EBITDA 上調的推動力，但我只是好奇——或者說 EBITDA 利潤率。我只是好奇外匯與本質上更高的營運效率相比如何？

And then my second question is just around pricing. You guys put through a lot of price earlier in the year, but now we have copper and steel is increasing focus. And I'm just curious, what are you guys prepared to do? And then what's customer feedback been to pricing?

我的第二個問題是關於定價的。今年早些時候，你們已經討論了很多價格問題，但現在我們越來越關注銅和鋼。我很好奇，你們準備怎麼做？顧客對定價的回饋如何？

Yes. So yes, on the guidance, the $15 million midpoint raise was related to FX, and that's really kind of in the back half of the year where the dollar is going to be weaker this year versus what it was last year, right? I think we were pretty clear on that in terms of the remarks. But that's where the that's where the revision to the upside is coming both from an earnings per share and from an EBITDA perspective.

是的。所以，在業績指引中，1500萬美元的中點上調與外匯有關，而這實際上發生在下半年，因為今年美元匯率會比去年走弱，對吧？我想我們在先前的言論中已經非常明確地表達了這一點。但從每股盈餘和息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）的角度來看，上調預期也正是因為這個原因。

On the pricing side, look, we waited to roll out our pricing until significantly later than we usually do because of the impact of tariffs. And so we're going to see sequentially as we move from Q2 to Q3, a little bit more upside than we would normally see. Having said that, we've dialed our pricing back based on some of the tariff changes and based on some of the other things that are going on. And so we've said from the beginning, we're going to be dollar neutral on tariffs.

在定價方面，由於關稅的影響，我們比往常晚了很多才公佈價格。因此，從第二季到第三季度，我們會看到價格環比上漲，幅度比平常略大。話雖如此，我們根據一些關稅變化以及其他一些正在發生的事情，下調了定價。所以我們從一開始就說過，我們將在關稅問題上保持美元中立。

We don't have to do as much stuff operationally because of some of the changes. And we don't need quite as much pricing as we thought we did because of some of the changes. And so we feel like we're in a really good spot on tariffs.

由於一些變化，我們在營運方面不需要做太多事情。而且，由於一些變化，我們不需要像我們想像的那樣進行那麼多定價。因此，我們覺得在關稅方面我們處於一個非常有利的位置。

And then, and as we talk about the growth algorithm in the second half being a little bit higher, that's part of it as well. We're getting a little bit of a bump from a little bit more second half pricing relative to the first half than we normally see.

然後，正如我們所說，下半年的成長演算法會略高一些，這也是部分原因。下半年的定價相對於上半年略高，這比我們通常看到的要高，這給我們帶來了一些提振。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore ISI。

I was just curious, the cadence for the rest of the year on the organic. Obviously, PT has been outgrowing FP for a while. I'm just curious, given some of the bigger deltas potentially with the off-highway OEMs, do you expect fluid to outgrow PT in the fourth quarter? I'm just getting a sense of the growth rates exiting '25 into '26. Any help between the business segments would be helpful.

我只是好奇，今年剩餘時間的有機成長節奏如何。顯然，PT 的成長速度已經超過 FP 一段時間了。考慮到非公路用車原始設備製造商 (OEM) 可能帶來的一些較大增量，您是否預計第四季度液體燃料的增長速度會超過 PT？我只是想知道從 2025 年到 2026 年的成長率。任何有關業務部門之間關係的幫助都將有所幫助。

Yes. I don't think so, Dave, because Fluid Power is pretty significantly represented with On Highway in construction, obviously, as you know, big hydraulics consumer and so on and so forth. So I think that PT has the opportunity to continue to outperform, particularly taking into account personal mobility. But we do see that most of our data center revenue, obviously, is going to be in FP, so that that's going to be accretive predominantly in 2026.

是的。戴夫，我不這麼認為，因為流體動力在公路建設中佔有相當大的比重，顯然，正如你所知，公路建設是液壓系統的主要消耗者等等。所以我認為石油化學有機會繼續表現出色，尤其是考慮到個人移動出行。但我們確實看到，我們的大部分資料中心收入顯然將來自石油化工，因此這部分收入將在2026年實現主要成長。

Okay. So the ag improvement, we don't see construction up in the fourth quarter. I mean it sounds like you think ag might be up, but just trying to extrapolate that topic versus PT.

好的。所以，農業方面的改善，我們預期第四季建築業不會成長。我的意思是，聽起來你認為農業可能會成長，但我只是試著用這個主題來推斷太平洋時間（PT）。

I wouldn't be providing guidance at this point in time further than what we have provided on commercial construction. I mean there is a probability that we can start seeing some inflection potentially as we exit the year, but I want to see another quarter of the market before I will be more -- before I lean towards providing additional color.

目前，我不會提供比我們在商業建築方面提供的更多指引。我的意思是，我們有可能在今年年底開始看到一些轉折點，但我希望先觀察市場另一個季度的表現，然後再提供更多細節。

And on the savings, the activities around the factories and so forth, any base case savings that roll from '25 to '26 as we think about any margin help from those actions? And maybe any offsets? You mentioned some of the incremental spending on new product for personal mobility. I'm just trying to set up some puts and takes for exiting '25 into '26.

關於成本節省，例如工廠週邊的活動等等，我們考慮一下這些活動對利潤率的提升，從2025年到2026年，會不會有什麼基本成本節省？或會不會有什麼抵銷？您提到了個人移動出行新產品的一些增量支出。我只是想為2025年到2026年設定一些收益和風險。

Yes. I mean we had embedded some of the things that we've already done in '25 into our guidance. So that's already in there for '25. There'll be a slight bit of carryover as you move from '25 to '26, but as we said in our earnings presentation, because of all the moving parts with tariffs and the trade negotiations and things like that, things have just taken a little bit longer. And so we're not going to see the full throughput of some of our restructuring activities until the end of '26, right? So we'll start to generate those through '26, but we won't see the full impact until the end of '26.

是的。我的意思是，我們已經把2025年已經完成的一些工作納入了我們的業績指引中。所以這些已經包含在2025年的業績指引中了。從2025年到2026年，會有一些輕微的結轉效應，但正如我們在財報報告中所說，由於關稅、貿易談判等諸多因素的影響，事情進展會稍微慢一些。所以，我們的一些重組活動要到2026年底才能完全完成，對吧？我們會在2026年啟動這些活動，但要到2026年底才能看到全部影響。

I'll now turn the call back over to Rich Kwas for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把電話轉回 Rich Kwas 做結束演講。請大家發言。

All right. Thanks, everyone. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great rest of the week. Take care.

好的。謝謝大家。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。祝您本週剩餘時間過得愉快。保重。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與，現在可以掛斷電話了。