Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Ashley, and I'll be your conference operator today.

早上好。我叫 Ashley，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Today on the call, we have Rich Kramer, Goodyear's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Christina Zamarro, Chief Financial Officer; and Darren Wells, Chief Administrative Officer.

此時，歡迎大家參加固特異 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天在電話會議上，我們有固特異董事長兼首席執行官 Rich Kramer；首席財務官 Christina Zamarro；和首席行政官 Darren Wells。

During this call, Goodyear will refer to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. For more information on the most significant factors that could affect future results, please refer to the important disclosures section of Goodyear's Fourth Quarter 2022 Investor letter and their filings with the SEC, which can be found on the website at investor.goodyear.com, where a replay of this call will also be available.

在此次電話會議中，固特異將提及前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標。前瞻性陳述涉及風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的最重要因素的更多信息，請參閱固特異 2022 年第四季度投資者信函的重要披露部分及其向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，可在網站 investor.goodyear.com 上找到，其中此通話的重播也將可用。

A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that may be discussed on today's call to the comparable GAAP measures is also included in the investor letter.

投資者信函中還包含了今天電話會議上可能討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較的 GAAP 指標的對賬。

I will now turn the call over to Rich Kramer, Chairman and CEO.

我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼首席執行官 Rich Kramer。

Great. Thanks, Ashley. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. We released our fourth quarter investor letter after the market closed yesterday that we received very good feedback from investors on both our letter and our Q&A call format following our third quarter release. So as we did last quarter, we used this time again to focus solely on your questions.

偉大的。謝謝，艾希禮。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。昨天收市後，我們發布了第四季度投資者信函，我們收到了投資者對第三季度發布後的信函和問答電話形式的非常好的反饋。因此，正如我們上個季度所做的那樣，我們再次利用這段時間專注於您的問題。

Now just before opening the line, I want to acknowledge, as you've heard earlier, that both Christina and Darren are joining me on the call today. As you saw with the announcement in December, Christina became our Chief Financial Officer as of January 1, replacing Darren, who's moved into a new role of Chief Administrative Officer. Congratulations to both of them. And again, they're joining me here. I'm excited to continue to partner with both of them in their new roles. And given the transition, Darren is joining us on the call today, but Christina and I will take the lead in responding to your questions on these calls as we go forward.

現在，在接通電話之前，我想確認，正如您之前所聽到的，克里斯蒂娜和達倫今天都將加入我的電話會議。正如您在 12 月的公告中看到的那樣，自 1 月 1 日起，克里斯蒂娜成為我們的首席財務官，接替新任首席行政官一職的達倫。祝賀他們倆。再一次，他們在這裡加入我。我很高興能在他們的新角色中繼續與他們合作。鑑於過渡期，達倫今天將加入我們的電話會議，但克里斯蒂娜和我將在我們繼續前進的過程中帶頭回答您關於這些電話會議的問題。

So with that, Ashley, let's open up the call for the first question.

因此，Ashley，讓我們開始第一個問題的徵集。

So we will take our first question from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

因此，我們將接受來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner 的第一個問題。

I agree with the feedback on the call format. So very much in favor of it.

我同意關於通話格式的反饋。所以非常贊成。

Thanks, Emmanuel. We appreciate the feedback and Christina pushed this that way. So well done. We appreciate that.

謝謝，伊曼紐爾。我們感謝反饋，克里斯蒂娜也是這樣推動的。幹得好。我們對此表示讚賞。

Great. First question maybe. I think last year on the same time, I think you had helped us out with sort of like framing, sort of a base case scenario for what could happen to free cash flow for you guys for the full year ahead under certain conditions. So would you be able to go into this discussion for 2023? Obviously, I appreciate all that in the slide. I was just curious, knowing all you know, what does free cash flow look like for you?

偉大的。可能是第一個問題。我認為去年的同一時間，我認為您幫助我們解決了某種類似框架的問題，這是一種基本情況，說明在某些情況下你們未來一年的自由現金流可能會發生什麼情況。那麼，您能否參與 2023 年的討論？顯然，我很欣賞幻燈片中的所有內容。我只是好奇，知道你所知道的，自由現金流對你來說是什麼樣的？

Sure. So Emmanuel, this is Christina. And let me start by saying thank you for the comments on the investor letter, and I have to send out thanks to our team. This has been a great push by our Investor Relations team, FP&A, our controlling team, all to put that together. And again, we've received really great feedback on that.

當然。所以伊曼紐爾，這是克里斯蒂娜。首先讓我感謝您對投資者信件的評論，我必須向我們的團隊表示感謝。這是我們的投資者關係團隊、FP&A、我們的控制團隊大力推動的，所有這些都是為了把這些整合在一起。再一次，我們收到了非常好的反饋。

As far as free cash flow in 2023. And if you look through the drivers we've laid out as part of our letter, and if you were to take the assumption, and so just stay with me on the assumption, if you were to take the assumption that our EBIT was going to be flat in 2023 versus our EBIT in 2022, which was about $1.1 billion. You should get to a level of free cash flow in the range of about [$400 million], and that's just reflecting the year-over-year improvement in working capital.

至於 2023 年的自由現金流。如果你仔細看看我們在信中列出的驅動因素，如果你要接受這個假設，那麼就繼續我的假設，如果你要假設我們的息稅前利潤在 2023 年與 2022 年的息稅前利潤持平，後者約為 11 億美元。你應該達到大約 [4 億美元] 範圍內的自由現金流水平，這只是反映了營運資金的同比增長。

Emmanuel what I'd add to that is it's not that we're targeting flat earnings. Our goal is to improve earnings. And after a really tough setup in the first quarter, as you've read in the letter, the trajectory should improve meaningfully as we move through the remainder of the year. In the second quarter, our goal is for Segment Operating Income to approach 2022 levels with volume stabilizing and given lower year-over-year raw material cost increases that we're expecting in the second quarter.

Emmanuel 我要補充的是，這並不是說我們的目標是固定收益。我們的目標是提高收入。在第一季度經歷了非常艱難的設置之後，正如您在信中所讀到的那樣，隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，軌跡應該會有所改善。在第二季度，我們的目標是部門營業收入接近 2022 年的水平，銷量穩定，並且考慮到我們預計第二季度原材料成本同比增幅較低。

Assuming a relatively stable economic outlook, then we would begin to see the benefits in the second half of higher volume on either comparables, strong growth in Asia Pacific, driven by a recovery in China and lower inflation levels than we're expecting in the first half of the year. We would also expect the benefits from our recent cost actions that we've announced and then, of course, at current spot prices, tailwinds in our raw material costs. Historically, this has been the time in the cycle where we've seen growth in earnings and growth in our margins as well.

假設經濟前景相對穩定，那麼我們將在下半年開始看到兩個可比產品銷量增加、亞太地區強勁增長、受中國復甦推動以及低於我們上半年預期的通脹水平的好處半年。我們還預計我們最近宣布的成本行動會帶來好處，當然，按照目前的現貨價格，我們的原材料成本也會有所下降。從歷史上看，這是周期中我們看到收益增長和利潤率增長的時期。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess following up on some of the pieces of the free -- I guess, of the free cash flow guidance, the -- so I think CapEx was guided at $1 billion for 2023 as this compares to maybe $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion framework that you've discussed previously in terms of the investments you need to make in growth. What is enabling you to sort of keep it around the $1 billion? And is that roughly sort of like just maintenance CapEx? Are you cutting back at -- I guess where are you cutting back?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想跟進一些免費的 - 我想是自由現金流指導的一些 - 所以我認為 2023 年的資本支出指導為 10 億美元，而這可能是 12 億美元，13 億美元您之前討論過的關於增長所需投資的框架。是什麼使您能夠將其保持在 10 億美元左右？這大致有點像維護資本支出嗎？你是在削減——我想你是在削減什麼？

Yes. Good question, Emmanuel. And so what I would tell you is, as we went through 2022, we did scale back our plans for capital expenditures just given the outlook for the global macroeconomic environment. As we look at 2023, we expect to continue to invest in the Americas and in Asia Pacific, although investment levels in EMEA will decline just given the current macroeconomic outlook there. We continue to allocate capital to high-return projects that will improve our overall competitiveness over time.

是的。問得好，伊曼紐爾。因此，我要告訴你的是，在我們度過 2022 年時，鑑於全球宏觀經濟環境的前景，我們確實縮減了資本支出計劃。展望 2023 年，我們預計將繼續在美洲和亞太地區進行投資，儘管鑑於當前的宏觀經濟前景，EMEA 的投資水平將會下降。我們繼續將資金分配給高回報項目，這些項目將隨著時間的推移提高我們的整體競爭力。

Yes, Emmanuel, I'll just jump in to echo Christina's points. I think we take a lot of time to go through those capital plans. And we've worked through a lot of cycles. And I think you can count on us to adjust CapEx to the environment we're in. And then when we do that, we really don't shortchange ourselves on what we see as long-term growth projects that we have to do.

是的，伊曼紐爾，我只是跳進來回應克里斯蒂娜的觀點。我認為我們需要很多時間來完成這些資本計劃。我們經歷了很多周期。而且我認為你可以指望我們根據我們所處的環境調整資本支出。然後當我們這樣做時，我們真的不會在我們認為我們必須做的長期增長項目上做空。

So we're comfortable with what we spent. And I would just tell you, even if you see things like things that we did at CES around intelligent tire and around sustainable tire, they are projects, growth projects, industry-leading sort of technological projects that we're going to continue to move forward within the capacity of the spend that we have, and we feel comfortable knowing how to do that.

所以我們對我們所花的錢感到滿意。我只想告訴你，即使你看到我們在 CES 上圍繞智能輪胎和可持續輪胎所做的事情，它們都是項目、增長項目、行業領先的技術項目，我們將繼續推進在我們擁有的支出能力範圍內向前推進，我們很樂意知道如何做到這一點。

Okay. Yes, I appreciate the color. And then just very finally, I guess, since you're mentioning the environment. Can you maybe just provide a little bit of your perspective on some of the drivers of this market's demand weakness that seems to be across every region -- every major region? I guess what is driving this? How would you see that potentially evolve through '23 on the demand side? And then any implications for -- how you think about pricing?

好的。是的，我喜歡這種顏色。最後，我猜，因為你提到了環境。你能否就這個市場需求疲軟的一些驅動因素提供一些看法，這些驅動因素似乎遍及每個地區——每個主要地區？我猜這是什麼原因造成的？您如何看待需求方在 23 世紀的發展潛力？然後對 - 你如何看待定價有什麼影響？

Yes, I think a lot there. Maybe I'll just start with the Americas. We did see a weaker market in the fourth quarter, and we see a little bit of slowdown coming into Q1. We reacted not only to the Americas, but Europe as well, as you saw in our investor letter by taking production down with that focus on making sure we don't have excess inventory in a bit of a slowing market and to focus on cash as Christina went through. But Emmanuel, as I think about the Americas going forward, you also saw in our letter, we saw that our channel inventories are up about 10%. But what I would tell you is that's pretty healthy.

是的，我在那裡想了很多。也許我將從美洲開始。我們確實看到第四季度市場疲軟，我們看到第一季度略有放緩。我們不僅對美洲做出反應，而且對歐洲也做出反應，正如您在我們的投資者信中看到的那樣，我們通過降低產量來確保我們在放緩的市場中沒有過剩庫存，並專注於現金克里斯蒂娜通過了。但是伊曼紐爾，當我想到美洲的未來發展時，你也在我們的信中看到，我們看到我們的渠道庫存增加了大約 10%。但我要告訴你的是，這非常健康。

I mean our distributors are really rebuilding their inventory. We didn't see any buy ahead, let's say, in anticipation of any price reductions or anything like that. It's a pretty healthy place. And I would say, in line with the expectations of where the market is going in '23. So we feel pretty good about North America, little slow to start, but I think we have a stronger second half coming. A little slow to start because we're bringing some of those costs on the balance sheet of unabsorbed inventory into the first quarter as well. But we feel pretty good about the demand picture.

我的意思是我們的經銷商真的在重建他們的庫存。我們沒有看到任何提前購買，比方說，預期任何降價或類似的東西。這是一個非常健康的地方。我會說，這符合 23 年市場走向的預期。所以我們對北美感覺很好，起步有點慢，但我認為下半年我們會有更強勁的表現。起步有點慢，因為我們也將其中一些成本計入了第一季度未吸收庫存的資產負債表。但我們對需求情況感覺很好。

Sell-out was about flat in the fourth quarter and year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and we don't see any big changes going into the year.

第四季度的銷售量基本持平，第四季度的銷售量同比持平，我們認為今年不會有任何大的變化。

Europe, I think a little bit different story. Obviously, a bit tougher there. I would take a step back and say we feel really good about the initiatives we've put in place in Europe. Aligned distribution is working. Our -- in the quarter, we got volume. We got price mix ahead of raw materials again, and we had share gains in a down market across the board for, I think, the 11th or 12th quarter in a row. So things are working in Europe.

歐洲，我覺得有點不同。顯然，那裡有點艱難。我會退後一步，說我們對我們在歐洲實施的舉措感到非常滿意。對齊分佈有效。我們的 - 在本季度，我們獲得了銷量。我們再次在原材料之前獲得價格組合，我認為，我們連續第 11 或第 12 個季度在全面下跌的市場中獲得了份額。所以事情在歐洲運作。

We also, as you know, took a lot of actions there to get our costs in line. I would say we feel really good about those things. But obviously, in Europe, we've seen big energy inflation in Q4 driven by the war. And we saw in the anticipation of these high energy costs really sort of reduced consumer demand out there as we saw really weak markets in the consumer replacement business, particularly in November and December, where we saw a consumer base thinking about big energy bills, and the channel sort of slowing down on wanting to buy more inventory. So Europe is a different case.

如您所知，我們還在那裡採取了很多行動來控制我們的成本。我會說我們對這些事情感覺非常好。但很明顯，在歐洲，我們看到第四季度因戰爭而導致能源大幅上漲。我們看到這些高能源成本的預期確實減少了消費者需求，因為我們看到消費者更換業務的市場非常疲軟，特別是在 11 月和 12 月，我們看到消費者群體正在考慮大筆能源賬單，並且由於想要購買更多庫存，該渠道有點放緩。所以歐洲是一個不同的情況。

We know that's going to continue for a little bit into 2023 first half, especially second half, again, as Christina said, will be better. And we're taking the appropriate actions to make sure we don't build excess inventory, make sure we focus on cash and continue to look at more cost areas. And remember, in Europe, we've done a lot in terms of restructuring our footprint (inaudible) full value. You saw we did in U.K. in (inaudible) We restructured a business in South Africa, and we did some restructurings at some sort of add volume and get some more efficiencies in France. So we'll continue down that path.

我們知道這種情況將持續到 2023 年上半年，尤其是下半年，正如克里斯蒂娜所說，情況會更好。我們正在採取適當的行動來確保我們不會建立過多的庫存，確保我們專注於現金並繼續關注更多的成本領域。請記住，在歐洲，我們在重組足跡（聽不清）的全部價值方面做了很多工作。你看到我們在英國做了（聽不清）我們重組了南非的業務，我們在某種程度上進行了一些重組，並在法國提高了效率。所以我們將繼續沿著這條路走下去。

And then in Asia, and we'll particularly focus on China here, tough right now because of COVID, but we really see that reversing, and we see that reversing in our favor in 2 areas. One is the OE business, which was strong in the fourth quarter and will continue to be. We doubled our win rate in OEs in 2022 to about 70%. And we have a higher mix into EVs, a high EV win rate, a high luxury SUV and truck. Win rate as well with the domestic OEMs, the Chinese OEMs that's higher profitability and will create good pull in the replacement market.

然後在亞洲，我們將特別關注中國，由於 COVID，現在很艱難，但我們確實看到了這種逆轉，我們看到這種逆轉在兩個領域對我們有利。一是 OE 業務，該業務在第四季度表現強勁，並將繼續保持強勁勢頭。我們在 2022 年將 OE 的贏率翻了一番，達到 70% 左右。我們有更高的電動汽車組合、高電動汽車贏率、高級豪華 SUV 和卡車。與國內原始設備製造商的贏率一樣，中國原始設備製造商具有更高的盈利能力，並將在替代市場上產生良好的拉動作用。

And as COVID sort of -- as we get through COVID, if I can say that's going to happen towards the second half, we see a big -- stronger pull in a mix up in replacement as well. And to get ready for that, we continue to invest in distribution in the key markets in China and India as well. So overall, look, we got to get through of Q1 first half, if you will, again, as we see some of this tumultuousness. But beyond that, we do see some upside and feel relatively good.

當 COVID 有點——當我們通過 COVID 時，如果我能說這將在下半年發生，我們會看到一個更大的——更強大的拉動在替代品的混合中。為了為此做好準備，我們也繼續投資於中國和印度主要市場的分銷。所以總的來說，看，我們必須通過第一季度的第一季度，如果你願意的話，再次，因為我們看到了一些這種動盪。但除此之外，我們確實看到了一些上行空間並且感覺相對良好。

We'll take our next question from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

我們將從 Rod Lache 和 Wolfe Research 提出下一個問題。

Two quick questions. First, are you seeing anything that would indicate anything other than stable pricing as you're entering this week -- this year just in the context of the weak demand? And can you clarify your expectations for the other tire-related businesses, has looked a bit soft in the fourth quarter?

兩個快速問題。首先，在您進入本週時，您是否看到除了穩定定價之外的任何其他跡象 - 今年只是在需求疲軟的情況下？您能否闡明您對其他輪胎相關業務的預期，在第四季度看起來有點疲軟？

Sure. Rod, from how we're looking, I guess, I'll say price mix and how we're looking at the raw material environment that's obviously related to that. You know that sort of the essence of your question is the earnings pressure and margin compression we've seen over the last quarters because of these escalating raw materials. That's true for Goodyear, true for the industry as well, and we need to recover that.

當然。羅德，從我們的看法來看，我想，我會說價格組合以及我們如何看待與此明顯相關的原材料環境。你知道你的問題的本質是我們在過去幾個季度看到的由於這些不斷升級的原材料而造成的盈利壓力和利潤率壓縮。這對固特異來說是正確的，對整個行業也是如此，我們需要恢復它。

I would tell you, our momentum has been very good. Our teams across all our businesses offset all the raw material headwinds with price and mix. And in 2 of the businesses in Europe not being one of them, we also offset some of the other cost increases we had as well. So the team has done a really good job.

我會告訴你，我們的勢頭非常好。我們所有業務的團隊通過價格和組合抵消了所有原材料不利因素。在歐洲的 2 家企業中，我們也抵消了其他一些成本增加。所以團隊做得非常好。

Now as Christina mentioned as well, we see this potential decrease for raw materials. And I would tell you, our plan is to capture the benefits of those raw materials and see that in margin improvements as we continue to capture our value proposition out in the marketplace. And I think, Rod, you know this well, having been with us so long, historically, in a period of declining raw materials, we're able to grow margins, we're able to drop through those benefits into the -- into our earnings. And I'd say we see that as still the plan and our way forward and what we're driving for. And also tell you what can help them is we also see the OE business coming back, which means they'll be a pull on the best capacity that the industry is making, and that's good for sort of a supply-demand equation out there as well as we think about how to manage the demand in the replacement market.

現在正如克里斯蒂娜所提到的那樣，我們看到了原材料的這種潛在下降。我會告訴你，我們的計劃是獲取這些原材料的好處，並在我們繼續在市場上獲取我們的價值主張時看到利潤率的提高。而且我認為，Rod，你很清楚這一點，從歷史上看，在原材料下降的時期與我們合作了這麼久，我們能夠增加利潤，我們能夠通過這些好處進入 - 進入我們的收入。我想說我們認為這仍然是計劃和我們前進的方向以及我們正在努力的目標。還要告訴你什麼可以幫助他們，我們也看到 OE 業務回歸，這意味著他們將拉動該行業正在製造的最佳產能，這有利於某種供需方程式，因為以及我們考慮如何管理更換市場的需求。

And then finally, Rod, I'll just tell you, in terms of what we're seeing in the marketplace, we have not seen any decreased demand or trade down in our Tier 1 volumes at all. We've seen a little bit in Tier 2 moving toward the lower-tier brands. But I'll tell you, I'm not sure that's a trade down or a price issue as much as it is. All those sort of imported tires that were backordered and paid upfront in cash by the distribution, particularly in the U.S. I'm talking here that sort of hit the docks in the past quarters, that obviously drove the industry numbers. All that came, it came late, it was paid for. And so I think what you see is a lot of push of those tires to turn it back into cash. And I think that's a dynamic we're dealing with. But again, that doesn't really impact sort of our Tier 1 tires or the value proposition for those. So I hope that helps.

最後，羅德，我只想告訴你，就我們在市場上看到的情況而言，我們根本沒有看到任何需求下降或一級交易量下降。我們已經看到 2 級品牌向低端品牌轉移了一些。但我會告訴你，我不確定這是降價交易還是價格問題。所有那些被分銷商延期交貨並以現金預付的進口輪胎，尤其是在美國。所有來的，來晚了，都是有代價的。因此，我認為您看到的是大量推動這些輪胎將其變回現金。我認為這是我們正在處理的動態。但同樣，這並沒有真正影響我們的 Tier 1 輪胎或這些輪胎的價值主張。所以我希望能有所幫助。

Yes. But I'll jump in on the non-tire business performance in the fourth quarter. That was principally driven by our chemical business, as you know, that's a pass-through margin business. And when they're buying Butadiene at higher prices and then Butadiene dropped in the fourth quarter pretty precipitously. That means they're adjusting their pricing real time in the market. So it's more of a timing issue.

是的。但我會談談第四季度的非輪胎業務表現。如您所知，這主要是由我們的化學業務推動的，這是一種傳遞保證金業務。當他們以更高的價格購買丁二烯時，丁二烯在第四季度急劇下降。這意味著他們正在市場上實時調整定價。所以這更像是一個時間問題。

As I look to 2023, expecting good growth in these areas, really driven by our aviation business, seeing and expecting strength in volumes, strength in pricing and mix. And we're seeing that across the portfolio, especially given the reopening and demand pull out of China.

展望 2023 年，我期待這些領域的良好增長，真正由我們的航空業務推動，看到並期待銷量、定價和組合的優勢。我們在整個投資組合中都看到了這一點，特別是考慮到重新開放和需求撤出中國。

And just one more thing, if I can ask. Just taking a step back. Maybe you can just elaborate a little bit on what it will take to close the gap, obviously, on a mix-adjusted basis versus your peers? Presumably some of the capital spending that you were planning was aimed at doing that. And maybe you could just provide a little bit of color on what you're shooting for here in the next year or 2?

還有一件事，如果我可以問的話。只是退一步。也許您可以詳細說明如何縮小差距，顯然是在混合調整的基礎上與您的同行相比？大概您計劃的一些資本支出就是為了做到這一點。也許您可以為明年或兩年內在這裡拍攝的內容提供一點色彩？

Yes. So I'll go ahead and start. I mean as we talked a little bit with earlier on the call about the plans for CapEx for 2023 and a lot of that is influenced obviously by the European macroeconomic outlook. I have to say, over the last 2 to 3 years, we do feel that we've made significant progress on closing our conversion cost per tire gap versus our competitors. I would say 2 or 3 years ago, we had estimated that gap to be in and around $4 per tire. And today, we have said with the closure of a very high cost facility in Gadsden in the U.S., a big restructuring in EMEA. And then, of course, you add a benefit in as much as many of our competitors had low-cost supply coming into Western Europe out of Russia. Put all those together, and we think our disadvantage right now is nearly half of what it would have been, say, 2 -- 3 or 4 years ago.

是的。所以我會繼續並開始。我的意思是，正如我們早些時候在電話會議上談到的 2023 年資本支出計劃，其中很多顯然受到歐洲宏觀經濟前景的影響。我不得不說，在過去的 2 到 3 年裡，我們確實覺得我們在縮小與競爭對手的每輪胎轉換成本差距方面取得了重大進展。我會說 2 或 3 年前，我們估計每個輪胎的差距在 4 美元左右。今天，我們已經說過關閉美國加茲登的一家成本非常高的工廠，這是歐洲、中東和非洲地區的一次重大重組。然後，當然，你增加了一個好處，因為我們的許多競爭對手都有從俄羅斯進入西歐的低成本供應。將所有這些放在一起，我們認為我們現在的劣勢幾乎是 2 - 3 或 4 年前的一半。

So we're feeling well positioned on a relative basis. That's not to say we're not going to do the work to move forward. And what I'll tell you is that the investments that we have in the plan we started last year and continuing in 2023 in the Americas, in Asia Pacific are very high return projects and as much as they're more expansionary instead of greenfield type plants. That will help move our low-cost percentage forward as part of our footprint and increase our overall competitors as we go.

所以我們在相對的基礎上感覺很好。這並不是說我們不打算繼續前進。我要告訴你的是，我們在去年開始並於 2023 年在美洲和亞太地區繼續實施的計劃中進行的投資是回報率非常高的項目，而且它們更具擴張性，而不是綠地類型植物。這將有助於將我們的低成本百分比作為我們足蹟的一部分向前推進，並在我們前進的過程中增加我們的整體競爭對手。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll go next to John Healy with Northcoast Research.

（操作員說明）我們將與 Northcoast Research 的 John Healy 一起去。

Rich, I wanted to ask a big picture question about kind of the changes in the C-suite recently. Just love to get your perspective on the move with Darren into the more of the strategy centric elements of the business. What might we expect from you guys over the next couple of years? Like what are the areas where you think that change is going to have the biggest impact on the DNA of the organization?

Rich，我想問一個關於最近 C-suite 變化的大局問題。只是想了解您對與 Darren 一起進入更多以戰略為中心的業務元素的看法。在接下來的幾年裡，我們對你們有什麼期望？例如，您認為變革將對組織的 DNA 產生最大影響的領域是什麼？

Well, I think the way I'd answer that, John, and the one thing I would say is we operate as a team. So I think that what makes -- what I'm proud of in leading the Goodyear team is that it's not reliant on one person. So whether Darren is in the CFO role or in a different role, helping us with strategy, where Christina and Darren have worked together for so long, I think this was a really natural and elegant transition, if I can say. And I look to the leaders of our business units as well as our CTO, Chris Helsel, I think that when you look at what we're doing, it's the team that really is where the value is. I won't limit it to any individual person.

好吧，我想我會這樣回答，約翰，我要說的一件事是我們作為一個團隊運作。所以我認為，讓我為領導固特異團隊而感到自豪的是，它不依賴於一個人。因此，無論達倫是首席財務官還是其他角色，幫助我們制定戰略，克里斯蒂娜和達倫已經合作了很長時間，我認為這是一個非常自然和優雅的過渡，如果我可以說的話。我看著我們業務部門的領導以及我們的首席技術官 Chris Helsel，我認為當你看看我們正在做的事情時，團隊才是真正的價值所在。我不會把它限制在任何個人身上。

But I will say from a strategic perspective, I think, one, I would highlight what Christina just talked about, which is to say that we are keenly focused that we have to get our cost structure continuingly in line, not only relative to competitors who also get better. But just the trends we see in the marketplace of -- I always speak about transparency about price and availability of inventory which puts pressure, margin compression pressure on every business in every industry. We're keenly aware of that, and we need to make sure that our operations continue to get more efficient every day. That means what we do in our factories on conversion cost, it means where our factories are, we've taken footprint actions. You can count on us to continue to take more of those and then to make the high value-added return investments that we are going to do to help drive both cost structure and more efficiency in the products we make.

但我想從戰略角度說，第一，我會強調克里斯蒂娜剛才談到的，也就是說我們非常關注我們必須讓我們的成本結構持續保持一致，而不僅僅是相對於競爭對手也變得更好。但只是我們在市場上看到的趨勢——我總是談論價格和庫存可用性的透明度，這給每個行業的每個企業帶來壓力，利潤壓縮壓力。我們敏銳地意識到這一點，我們需要確保我們的運營每天都在繼續提高效率。這意味著我們在工廠中所做的關於轉換成本的工作，這意味著我們工廠所在的地方，我們已經採取了足跡行動。您可以指望我們繼續採取更多這些措施，然後進行我們將要進行的高附加值回報投資，以幫助推動成本結構和提高我們生產的產品的效率。

So that will continue. We're going to get -- we're going to continue to get I would say, Darren, I'll say creative on how we make sure that we do that. There's a lot of manufacturing capacity in the industry. And like we did with Cooper, we need to think about how we can use that capacity more wisely as we move ahead.

所以這將繼續。我們將得到 - 我們將繼續得到我會說，達倫，我會說我們如何確保我們做到這一點。這個行業有很多製造能力。就像我們對 Cooper 所做的那樣，我們需要考慮在我們前進的過程中如何更明智地利用這種能力。

Secondly, I think I always tell my team, we have to have the best products in the industry. So our product innovation engine has worked. We were high podium in every product category in Europe, including summer. We have the freshest product portfolio we've ever had in Asia and Latin America and in the U.S., and that's both in commercial and in consumer. We will continue to make sure that our innovation engine is working. We don't talk about it as much, but we don't talk about a lot of the things that are working as well as they are. So we will continue to do that.

其次，我想我總是告訴我的團隊，我們必須擁有業內最好的產品。因此，我們的產品創新引擎發揮了作用。我們在歐洲的每個產品類別中都名列前茅，包括夏季。我們在亞洲、拉丁美洲和美國擁有最新鮮的產品組合，無論是在商業領域還是在消費者領域。我們將繼續確保我們的創新引擎正常運轉。我們並沒有過多地談論它，但我們也沒有談論很多正在發揮作用的事情。所以我們會繼續這樣做。

And I think what gets us most excited about this is the technological trends that are moving forward in our business. They're not revenue generating today, but the changes we're seeing in mobility, the changes from just making a, if you will, a dumb tire to an intelligent tire, that actually has a place on an intelligent vehicle, a connected tire that improves the safety and performance of vehicles. And it actually has a role that becomes part of those vehicles operating systems, both in terms of how it's integrated to the vehicle and the service element of it is something that gets us excited about where mobility is going and what the role of Goodyear and the tire is.

我認為最讓我們興奮的是我們業務中正在向前發展的技術趨勢。它們今天不產生收入，但我們在機動性方面看到的變化，從僅僅製造一個，如果你願意的話，一個智能輪胎的變化，實際上在智能車輛上佔有一席之地，一個聯網的輪胎從而提高車輛的安全性和性能。它實際上扮演著成為這些車輛操作系統的一部分的角色，無論是在它如何集成到車輛上還是在它的服務元素方面，這都讓我們對移動性的發展方向以及固特異和蒂爾群島

That's something that we're -- you know we're thinking deeply about and I think we're making great progress on going forward. So there's a number of things that Darren will help us on as we go forward and do that. But again, I would take a step back. It's the basics and it's the technological trends that the industry is going, our ability to execute on both of those simultaneously is going to continue what separates us going forward.

這就是我們——你知道我們正在深入思考，我認為我們在前進方面取得了很大進展。因此，在我們繼續前進並做到這一點時，Darren 將在很多方面為我們提供幫助。但同樣，我會退後一步。這是行業發展的基礎和技術趨勢，我們同時執行這兩個方面的能力將繼續使我們向前發展。

That's super helpful. And just one other question I had just on distribution. It sounds like the Cooper and the Goodyear portfolios are starting to be maybe a little bit more connected in terms of dealer availability. We just love to get your thoughts in terms of access of super product, the Goodyear dealers and vice versa. And are we at a point where maybe 1 plus 1 can start to equal 3? Or is it kind of going to continue to be somewhat separated in terms of how each go to market?

這非常有幫助。還有一個關於分發的問題。聽起來 Cooper 和 Goodyear 的產品組合在經銷商可用性方面可能開始變得更加緊密。我們只是想了解您在超級產品、固特異經銷商和反之亦然的訪問方面的想法。我們是否處於 1 加 1 可以開始等於 3 的地步？還是在各自進入市場的方式上會繼續有所不同？

So I actually think it's a little bit of both. And the reason I say that -- for instance, our retail stores now have Cooper product in it, and that is and has turned into in terms of the performance of those stores sort of a 1 plus 1 equals 3 in terms of how they're operating, how we're taking care of customers and the products that we're offering them.

所以我實際上認為兩者都有一點。我這麼說的原因——例如，我們的零售店現在有 Cooper 產品，就這些商店的表現而言，這已經變成了 1 加 1 等於 3 的方式在運營中，我們如何照顧客戶以及我們為他們提供的產品。

In the same respect, there are certain distribution elements of how Cooper goes to market, how they sell to distributors. And that process is one of the reasons that we wanted to combine Cooper with Goodyear, they do some of those things really well, and we are not going to touch those. We're going to make sure what they did really well. And candidly, what they were better at than we are. We're going to keep the best of that, and we are, while we're integrating where it makes sense to do. So I think it's actually a little bit of both.

同樣，Cooper 如何進入市場、如何銷售給分銷商也有某些分銷要素。這個過程是我們想要將 Cooper 與 Goodyear 結合的原因之一，他們在其中一些方面做得非常好，我們不會觸及這些。我們將確保他們做得很好。坦率地說，他們比我們更擅長什麼。我們將保持其中最好的一面，我們正在這樣做，同時我們正在整合有意義的事情。所以我認為這實際上是兩者兼而有之。

And I would tell you, both the terms of the synergies, we're on the run rate synergies that we said we were going to get. And I think that the market side, we said we weren't going to do anything rash right out of the box. We haven't. And you'll see continued progress on how Goodyear and Cooper incorporate into the market together in 2023. So I think more to come on that, but I'm very happy with where we are.

我會告訴你，無論是協同效應的條款，我們都在我們所說的我們將要獲得的運行率協同效應上。而且我認為在市場方面，我們說過我們不會立即做任何輕率的事情。我們沒有。你會看到固特異和庫珀如何在 2023 年一起融入市場的持續進展。所以我想更多的是在這方面，但我對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。

And we'll take our final question from James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

我們將接受來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello 的最後一個問題。

On the second quarter color of SOI approach a year ago levels potentially, what would be some of the key assumptions to get there? Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the second quarter, it should have a similar overhead absorption impact in the first quarter, and maybe that's $60 million to $70 million. And then from there, the 3 buckets -- key buckets as I see it would be unit volumes, price mix versus raws and then the non-raw materials inflation piece. Yes, just any color on that would be super helpful.

關於 SOI 的第二季度顏色可能接近一年前的水平，實現這一目標的一些關鍵假設是什麼？如果我在這裡錯了，請糾正我，但第二季度，它應該在第一季度產生類似的管理費用吸收影響，也許是 6000 萬到 7000 萬美元。然後從那裡開始，3 個桶——我認為關鍵桶是單位數量、價格組合與原材料，然後是非原材料通脹部分。是的，任何顏色都會非常有用。

Yes, sure. James, it's Christina. So I guess I would start by saying, in the second quarter, we see volumes stabilizing. And I would have -- and we have announced a 5% price increase in Europe consumer replacement beginning January 1. And so we expect Europe to begin to catch up to the increases in raw materials over the course of the first quarter and second quarter. Obviously, there's a very significant step down in raw material price increases from Q1 to Q2. And so that should be a benefit for us as well.

是的，當然。詹姆斯，我是克里斯蒂娜。所以我想我首先要說的是，在第二季度，我們看到交易量趨於穩定。我會 - 我們已經宣布從 1 月 1 日開始歐洲消費者更換價格上漲 5%。因此我們預計歐洲將在第一季度和第二季度開始趕上原材料的增長。顯然，從第一季度到第二季度，原材料價格漲幅出現了非常顯著的下降。因此，這也應該對我們有利。

Okay. And then just -- well, then how to -- how do you foresee the elevated channel inventories in Europe, I think a 30% above year ago levels. With the price increase and with replacement sell-in demand down for the industry, a mid-teens entering '23. Yes, how do you see that unfolding? And do you see -- catching up?

好的。然後——好吧，那麼如何——你如何預見歐洲渠道庫存的增加，我認為比去年同期水平高出 30%。隨著價格的上漲和行業更換銷售需求的下降，進入 23 世紀的年輕人。是的，您如何看待這種情況？你看到了嗎——趕上了？

Yes . It's a great question, James. And the elevated channel inventory is actually all reflective of winter. And so what happened in the first quarter is, we see a shift from winter tire sell-in in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, we shift into a summer tire sell-in season. There, the inventory in the channel is much more balanced and even healthy. What I would tell you is that the energy prices in Europe have also abated significantly since the third and fourth quarters as well. And so expecting that to support consumers out over the course of the first and second quarters.

是的 。這是一個很好的問題，詹姆斯。而高架渠道庫存實際上都反映了冬季。因此，第一季度發生的事情是，我們看到第四季度冬季輪胎銷量發生了變化。在第一季度，我們進入了夏季輪胎銷售旺季。在那裡，渠道中的庫存更加平衡，甚至健康。我要告訴你的是，自第三季度和第四季度以來，歐洲的能源價格也顯著下降。因此，預計這將在第一季度和第二季度為消費者提供支持。

And there are no further questions at this time, and this will conclude today's Goodyear Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

目前沒有其他問題，今天的固特異 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議將結束。您可以在此時斷開您的線路，並度過美好的一天。