Global Ship Lease Inc (GSL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Global Ship Lease 最近召開了 2025 年第一季財報電話會議,討論了他們最近的活動、財務表現和當前的市場環境。儘管存在宏觀不確定性,但他們強調貨櫃船租賃市場仍然緊張。第一季度,該公司增加了 3.52 億美元的合約收入,並一直專注於機隊更新並向股東返還資本。他們強調了財務彈性、策略性財務管理以及在不確定的市場條件下最大化選擇性的重要性。憑藉強勁的現金流、穩健的資產負債表和選擇性收購,Global Ship Lease 相信他們有能力為股東創造長期價值。他們計劃在八月的第二季財報電話會議上提供進一步的更新。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and thank you for standing by. My name is RG, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Global Ship Lease Q1 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    大家好,感謝大家的支持。我叫 RG,今天我將擔任您的會議接線生。現在,我歡迎大家參加全球船舶租賃 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)

  • Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Thomas Lister, the CEO of Global Ship Lease. Please go ahead.

    謝謝。現在我想將電話轉給 Global Ship Lease 執行長 Thomas Lister。請繼續。

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you. Hello, everyone and welcome to the Global Ship Lease first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. You can find the slides that accompany today's presentation on our website at www.globalshiplease.com.

    謝謝。大家好,歡迎參加全球船舶租賃 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 www.globalshiplease.com 上找到今天簡報的幻燈片。

  • As usual, slides 2 and 3 remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations and assumptions and are by their nature inherently uncertain and outside of the company's control. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to many factors, including those described in the Safe Harbor section of the slide presentation.

    像往常一樣,投影片 2 和 3 提醒您,今天的電話會議可能包含基於當前預期和假設的前瞻性陳述,這些陳述本質上具有不確定性且不受公司控制。由於多種因素,包括幻燈片演示的安全港部分中所述的因素,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異。

  • We would also like to direct your attention to the risk factors section of our most recent annual report on our 2024 Form 20-F, which was filed in March 2025. You can find the form on our website or on the SECs. All of our statements are qualified by these and other disclosures in our reports filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements.

    我們還想請您注意我們最新的 2024 年 20-F 表格年度報告中的風險因素部分,該報告於 2025 年 3 月提交。您可以在我們的網站或 SEC 上找到該表格。我們的所有聲明均符合我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中的這些和其他揭露的規定。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

  • The reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to which we will refer during this call to the most directly comparable measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP usually refer to the earnings release that we issued this morning, which is also available on our website.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將參考非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 財務指標與按照 GAAP 計算和呈現的最直接可比較指標的對賬,通常參考我們今天上午發布的收益報告,該報告也可在我們的網站上查閱。

  • I'm joined as usual today by our Executive Chairman Georger Gioroukos; and by our Chief Financial Officer, Tasios Psaropoulos. George will begin the call with high-level commentary on GSL and our industry, and then Tasios and I will take you through our recent activity, quarterly results and financials, and the current market environment. After that, we'll be very pleased to answer your questions. So turning now to slide 4, I'll pass the call over to George.

    今天與往常一樣,我們的執行主席 Georger Gioroukos 也出席了會議;以及我們的財務長 Tasios Psaropoulos。喬治將在電話會議開始時對 GSL 和我們的行業進行高層評論,然後塔西奧斯和我將向您介紹我們最近的活動、季度業績和財務狀況以及當前的市場環境。之後,我們將非常樂意回答您的問題。現在翻到投影片 4,我將把電話交給喬治。

  • George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

    George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Tom, and good morning, afternoon, or evening to all of you joining us today. In the face of unprecedented levels of macro uncertainty, the container ship charter market has remained exceptionally tight through the opening months of 2025.

    謝謝你,湯姆,今天和我們一起來的各位,大家早安、下午好、晚上好。面對前所未有的宏觀不確定性,貨櫃船租賃市場在 2025 年頭幾個月一直異常緊張。

  • Even as the headline freight rates and by our line of customers continue to normalize, the fundamental need for mid-sized and smaller container ships has remained very strong with essentially zero idle capacity in the global system. Against that backdrop, we added a further $352 million of contracted revenues in the first quarter, bringing our 2025 contract cover to 93% and 2026 cover to 75%, which provides good insulation against uncertainty. More recently, tariffs and other proposed non-tariff barriers to trade have further complicated the macroeconomic picture.

    即使整體運費和我們的客戶線繼續正常化,對中型和小型貨櫃船的基本需求仍然非常強勁,全球系統中的閒置運力基本上為零。在此背景下,我們在第一季又增加了 3.52 億美元的合約收入,使我們的 2025 年合約覆蓋率達到 93%,2026 年合約覆蓋率達到 75%,這為抵禦不確定性提供了良好的保障。最近,關稅和其他擬議的非關稅貿易壁壘進一步使宏觀經濟情勢複雜化。

  • Tom will discuss this more later, but the situation remains very fluid, and it is too early to speculate on longer term ramifications. Although we are encouraged by the recent apparent de-escalation in trade tensions and rhetoric.

    湯姆稍後會進一步討論這個問題,但情況仍然非常不穩定,現在推測長期影響還為時過早。儘管近期貿易緊張局勢和言論明顯緩和,令我們感到鼓舞。

  • In any case, from what we have seen so far, it seems likely that the impact of tariffs and other trade barriers will be uneven across different segments of the industry.

    無論如何,從我們目前看到的情況來看,關稅和其他貿易壁壘對產業不同領域的影響似乎是不均衡的。

  • For example, we're beginning to see early data that container flows displaced from China-US routes and in some cases leading to notable increases in volumes in smaller trades that more heavily utilize mid-sized and smaller ships of the kind that GSL owns.

    例如,我們開始看到早期數據,顯示貨櫃流量從中美航線轉移,在某些情況下導緻小型貿易的運輸量顯著增加,這些貿易更多地使用 GSL 所擁有的中型和小型船舶。

  • Now, in addition to chartering, we have opportunistically monetized some of our older ships by selling them at cyclically attractive prices to bolster our dry powder for investment and fleet renewal. We have proven our patience and discipline over many years, but we must also ensure that we are in a position to act quickly when the time and conditions are right.

    現在,除了租賃之外,我們還以週期性有吸引力的價格出售一些老舊船舶,將其變現,以增強我們的投資和船隊更新的資金。多年來,我們已經證明了我們的耐心和紀律,但我們也必須確保在適當的時間和條件下能夠迅速採取行動。

  • In complex and fast moving times, optionality is key. Meanwhile, our balance sheet remains in excellent condition, and we have increased our return of capital to shareholders by growing our annualized dividend to $2.10 per share. Starting this quarter, and up 40% on this time last year.

    在複雜而快速變化的時代,可選性是關鍵。同時,我們的資產負債表仍然保持良好狀態,我們透過將年度股息提高至每股 2.10 美元來增加對股東的資本回報。從本季開始,比去年同期成長了 40%。

  • In sum, by strengthening our balance sheet and locking in extensive contract cover, we have built GSL to maximize optionality both to take advantage of the natural cyclicality of our industry, and also to ensure that we can remain strong for the long term in any market conditions.

    總而言之,透過加強我們的資產負債表和鎖定廣泛的合約保障,我們建立了 GSL 來最大限度地提高可選性,既可以利用我們行業的自然週期性,又確保我們能夠在任何市場條件下保持長期強勁。

  • Both as a company and as an investment proposition, GSL has enjoyed a very strong multi-year run, and we look forward to sustain and build on that momentum in the years ahead.

    無論作為一家公司還是一項投資,GSL 多年來一直表現強勁,我們期待在未來幾年保持並發揚這一勢頭。

  • With that, I will turn the call back to Tom.

    說完這些,我就把電話轉回給湯姆。

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, George. Please turn to slide 5, where you will see the diversification of our charter portfolio. As of March 31, we have nearly $1.9 billion in contracted revenues and 2.3 years of average remaining contract cover. Including extension options that have been declared, we added 19 charters for approximately $352 million of contracted revenues in the first quarter.

    謝謝你,喬治。請翻到投影片 5,您將看到我們的包機組合的多樣化。截至 3 月 31 日,我們的合約收入接近 19 億美元,平均剩餘合約期限為 2.3 年。包括已宣布的延期選擇權在內,我們在第一季度增加了 19 份租船合同,合約收入約為 3.52 億美元。

  • On slide 6, we discuss our dynamic capital allocation policy which will be familiar to many of you, but which is critically important as a cyclical industry such as ours.

    在第 6 張投影片上,我們討論了我們的動態資本配置政策,這對你們中的許多人來說都很熟悉,但對於我們這樣的週期性產業來說,這項政策至關重要。

  • As George mentioned, we are returning substantial capital to shareholders. We have significantly delevered our balance sheet, and we have maintained a disciplined, selective approach to fleet renewal. At the same time, we have sought to maximize optionality while ensuring that our CapEx obligations and various downside risks are well covered in any market context.

    正如喬治所提到的,我們正在向股東返還大量資本。我們大幅降低了資產負債表的槓桿率,並保持了嚴謹、選擇性的機隊更新方式。同時,我們力求最大限度地提高可選性,同時確保我們的資本支出義務和各種下行風險在任何市場環境下都得到充分覆蓋。

  • In short, our strategy and business model is for GSL to provide investors with a stable and liquid platform through which to participate in the opportunities, cyclical upside, and positive volatility of the industry while mitigating exposure to downside risk. In other words, taking the white knuckle part out of the of the shipping roller coaster ride while keeping the fun bits.

    簡而言之,我們的策略和商業模式是讓 GSL 為投資者提供一個穩定且流動性強的平台,透過該平台參與行業的機會、週期性上行和積極波動,同時降低下行風險。換句話說,在保留樂趣的同時,去掉了運輸過山車之旅中令人緊張的部分。

  • Slide 7 illustrates our discipline in acquisitions. The notes on the chart show where we have bought vessels since our transformative merger in 2018, and it is clear that our preference is to buy during periods of relatively low asset prices or when we can structure the equivalent, as with our vessels purchased in late 2024 with below market charters attached facilitating their acquisition at a 30% below market charter free value while preserving their upside potential post charter.

    投影片 7 展示了我們在收購方面的紀律。圖表中的註釋顯示了我們自 2018 年轉型合併以來購買船舶的位置,很明顯,我們傾向於在資產價格相對較低的時期或我們可以構建等價結構時購買,就像我們在 2024 年底購買的船舶一樣,附帶低於市場租船價的條款,以便以低於市場租船上免費價值 30% 的價格。

  • Notably, we refrain from buying any ships during the super peak asset-price period shown in orange on the chart, a period during which markets were exuberant with asset prices at levels we saw as providing little upside potential.

    值得注意的是,在圖表中橙色所示的資產價格超高峰時期,我們不會購買任何船舶,在此期間,市場繁榮,資產價格處於我們認為幾乎沒有上漲潛力的水平。

  • With that, I'll pass the call to Tasios to discuss our financials. Tasios?

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給塔西奧斯,討論我們的財務狀況。塔西奧斯?

  • Anastasios Psaropoulos - Chief Financial Officer

    Anastasios Psaropoulos - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you Tom. Slide 8 shows our first-quarter financial highlights. I would like to emphasize a few points. Earnings and cash flow are all up versus the first quarter of 2024, which was already a strong quarter. With the financing of a recently acquired vessels, a gross debt has increased to a little under $778 million.

    謝謝你,湯姆。幻燈片 8 展示了我們第一季的財務亮點。我想強調幾點。與 2024 年第一季相比,收益和現金流均有所上升,而 2024 年第一季已經是一個強勁的季度。由於最近收購的船隻的融資,總債務已增加至略低於 7.78 億美元。

  • And with the debt for those three purchases, we have made use of all remaining headroom under a 64 base point so interest rate caps, which run through 2026 and as of March 31 covered a little over 80% of our floating rate debt.

    對於這三次購買所產生的債務,我們利用了 64 個基點以下的所有剩餘空間,因此利率上限一直持續到 2026 年,截至 3 月 31 日,已涵蓋了我們 80% 以上的浮動利率債務。

  • Our cash position is $428 million. $95 million is restricted, of which $73 million is advanced received of charter hire. The remainder ensures that we can fully cover our covenants, working capital needs, and dividends while also providing dry powder to move quickly on the right opportunities.

    我們的現金狀況為4.28億美元。 9,500 萬美元受到限制,其中 7,300 萬美元是預收的租船費。剩餘部分確保我們能夠完全履行契約、滿足營運資金需求並分紅,同時也能提供充足的資金以便快速抓住正確的機會。

  • Slide 9 provides a closer look at our efforts to build both resilience and equity value by delivering. The graph on the left shows our progress in reducing our outstanding debt while the right shows that same deleveraging from a net debt to EBITDA perspective.

    投影片 9 詳細介紹了我們透過交付來建立彈性和公平價值的努力。左邊的圖表顯示了我們在減少未償債務方面取得的進展,而右邊的圖表則顯示了從淨債務到 EBITDA 角度的去槓桿化進程。

  • As you can see, although we increased our gross debt through our recent C purchases, we have continued to see our net debt to EBITDA, our financial leverage. In other words, reduced now under one as of the end of the first quarter. To underscore that point, that figure was 8.4 times at the end of 2018.

    如您所見,儘管我們透過最近的 C 購買增加了我們的總債務,但我們仍然看到我們的淨債務與 EBITDA(我們的財務槓桿)之比。換句話說,截至第一季末,已減少至 1 以下。為了強調這一點,2018 年底這一數字為 8.4 倍。

  • More progress on this front can be seen on slide 10. On the left, we have our cost of debt which we have successfully lowered to a blended cost of 3.99%. We have reduced this cost of debt significantly over the years, even as 10-year US treasuries have risen quite a lot.

    幻燈片 10 上可以看到這方面的更多進展。左邊是我們的債務成本,我們已成功將其降低至 3.99% 的混合成本。儘管十年期美國公債價格大幅上漲,但這些年來我們還是大幅降低了債務成本。

  • The right graph shows our break even rates and tells a closely related story. That is because we have sharply reduced our interest expenses, we have been able to absorb rising operating expenses and keep overall break evens flat over several years when the prevailing global narrative was one of high inflation. We are proud of this result, which puts us in the position of strength at a time of macro volatility and unpredictability.

    右邊的圖表顯示了我們的損益平衡率,並講述了一個密切相關的故事。這是因為我們大幅降低了利息支出,在全球高通膨的情況下,我們能夠吸收不斷上升的營運支出,並保持整體盈虧平衡點在幾年內保持平穩。我們為這一結果感到自豪,這使我們在宏觀波動和不可預測的時期處於優勢地位。

  • I will now turn it back over to Tom to discuss our market focus and see deployment.

    現在我將把主題交還給湯姆,討論我們的市場重點並了解部署情況。

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Tasios. Slide 11 restates our focus on mid-sized and smaller container ships between 2,000 and 10,000 TU roughly, which make up the backbone of global trade, are super flexible operationally and are not dependent upon any one trade or country.

    謝謝,塔西奧斯。幻燈片 11 重申了我們對大約 2,000 至 10,000 TU 之間的中型和小型貨櫃船的關注,這些船構成了全球貿易的支柱,操作上超級靈活,並且不依賴任何單一貿易或國家。

  • This stands in contrast to the very large container ships, which, because of their size, physical restrictions in many ports and the need for sophisticated port infrastructure tend to be limited to the big mainland trades such as those between China and the US or Northern Europe.

    這與大型貨櫃船形成了鮮明對比,由於其尺寸、許多港口的物理限制以及對複雜港口基礎設施的需求,大型貨櫃船往往僅限於中國與美國或北歐之間的大型大陸貿易。

  • We consistently reiterate this aspect of our business because we believe that it's important for investors to understand, and I will in a moment speak to why it is especially valuable in the current environment.

    我們不斷重申我們業務的這一方面,因為我們認為讓投資者了解這一點很重要,我稍後會談談為什麼它在當前環境下特別有價值。

  • The impact of one significant and ongoing market dynamic is shown on slide 12. Before the disruption in the Red Sea, 20% of all global containerized volumes passed through it, representing 34% of container ship fleet capacity.

    第 12 張投影片展示了一個重大且持續的市場動態的影響。在紅海事件發生之前,全球 20% 的貨櫃運輸量經過該海域,佔貨櫃船隊運力的 34%。

  • These vessels have since been forced to transit around the Cape of Good Hope, lengthening voyages, and thereby limiting effective vessel supply considerably. Various initiatives have emerged over time to try to restore navigation through the region, notably including an apparent recent ceasefire agreement between the US and the Houthis.

    這些船隻從此被迫繞過好望角,延長了航程,從而大大限制了有效的船隻供應。隨著時間的推移,各種舉措紛紛湧現,試圖恢復該地區的航行,其中最明顯的包括美國和胡塞武裝之間最近達成的停火協議。

  • Recent commentary, however, from certain of the major liner companies has captured well the dilemma faced in considering a return to that routing and why it is not necessarily a given in the near future.

    然而,最近某些主要班輪公司的評論很好地抓住了考慮恢復該航線時所面臨的困境,以及為什麼在不久的將來這不一定是必然的。

  • First and foremost, the safety of seafarers, not to mention the vessels and the cargoes, cannot be taken lightly. Secondly, with rerouting having settled into stable new norms after a protracted period of reshuffling, a return to Red Sea and Suez transits would represent a major undertaking for the liner companies involving network disruption, complexity, and significant costs.

    首先,海員的安全,更不用說船舶和貨物的安全,都不容輕視。其次,經過長時間的調整,航線改道已經形成穩定的新常態,恢復紅海和蘇伊士運河運輸對班輪公司來說將是一項重大任務,將導致網路中斷、複雜性和巨大成本。

  • So taken together, the threshold for a large scale return to sewage transits is quite high, especially for liner companies operating complex service networks. Consequently, the sector wants to first regain comfort and high conviction that transits can be completed safely on a consistent, and I emphasize, consistent basis for the long term.

    綜合來看,大規模回歸污水運輸的門檻相當高,特別是對於營運複雜服務網路的班輪公司而言。因此,該行業希望首先恢復信心和信心,並相信過境運輸能夠在長期內以一致且安全的方式完成。

  • On slide 13, we provide some data to help frame a couple of the hot topics of the day, namely US-China tariffs and the proposed US port fees on Chinese-built and operated ships, the latter of which is typically referred to as USTR.

    在第 13 張投影片上,我們提供了一些數據來幫助闡述當天的幾個熱門話題,即中美關稅以及美國對中國建造和運營的船舶徵收的港口費用,後者通常被稱為 USTR。

  • Tariffs first. So big picture, US imports represent a meaningful slice of global containerized trade, although perhaps less than some might imagine, at 13%. That's 13%, a significant portion of which, almost 40%, comes from China.

    先談關稅。因此,總體而言,美國進口占全球貨櫃貿易的很大一部分,儘管可能比一些人想像的要少,僅為 13%。這一比例為 13%,其中很大一部分(近 40%)來自中國。

  • A smaller but still non-negligible volume of containerized trade goes back the other way. During April, tariffs on this bilateral trade climbed as high as 145% and 125% respectively, triggering severe disruptions to supply chains which are still rippling through the system.

    貨櫃貿易量雖然規模較小,但仍不容忽視。4月份,雙邊貿易關稅分別飆升至145%和125%,導致供應鏈嚴重中斷,目前影響仍在持續。

  • Fortunately, the situation appears to be de-escalating with tariffs now set, at least for the time being, at 30% and 10%, while the US and China work on establishing a longer term framework.

    幸運的是,局勢似乎正在緩和,至少目前關稅已設定為 30% 和 10%,同時美國和中國正在努力建立長期框架。

  • Turning to USTR, the US is looking to impose fees both on Chinese built and on Chinese-operated ships. The implications will be wide ranging as ships built in China currently account for 28% of the global container ship fleet on the water and 71% of the order book. So almost everyone has or will have such ships in their fleet.

    談到美國貿易代表辦公室,美國正考慮對中國建造和中國營運的船舶徵收費用。其影響將是廣泛的,因為目前中國建造的船舶佔全球海上貨櫃船隊的28%和訂單的71%。因此幾乎每個國家的艦隊中都有或將會有這樣的船隻。

  • Having said that, USTR is not yet in its final form and has already passed through various iterations and reviews, each of which has tempered the terms, and a further review is in fact scheduled to take place today.

    話雖如此,USTR 尚未定稿,並且已經經過多次修改和審查,每次修改和審查都對條款進行了調整,事實上,今天將進行進一步的審查。

  • As things currently stand, it seems that ships of 4,000 TU or smaller will not be impacted by USTR. Turning to GSL specifically, our fleet at the end of the first quarter included 10 Chinese-built ships, of which only four are larger than 4,000 TU, of which none are currently deployed on China-US trades.

    從目前的情況來看,4,000 TU 或更小的船舶似乎不會受到 USTR 的影響。具體到GSL,第一季末我們的船隊中有10艘中國製造的船舶,其中只有4艘大於4,000TU,而目前沒有一艘部署在中美貿易航線上。

  • And in fact, it's quite typical for mid-sized and smaller ships such as ours to be deployed outside of the mainland trades both because of their flexibility, and also because the majority of global trade does indeed happen outside of these main lanes. That deployment flexibility for our ships is something that has always been valued and hopefully this helps make clear why.

    事實上,像我們這樣的中型和小型船舶被部署在大陸貿易航線之外是很典型的,這不僅是因為它們的靈活性,也是因為全球貿易的大部分確實發生在這些主要航線之外。我們一直非常重視船舶的部署彈性,希望這有助於解釋原因。

  • On slide 14, we looked to US-China trade tensions in 2019 as an illustrative example of how second and third order effects can counterintuitively be positive for tonnage providers like GSL.

    在第 14 張投影片中,我們以 2019 年的中美貿易緊張局勢為例,說明二階和三階效應如何對 GSL 等噸位供應商產生反直覺的正面影響。

  • In 2019, as tariffs between the US and China ratcheted up, larger container ships did indeed see decreased demand as US-China trade flows reduced.

    2019年,隨著中美關稅的提高,隨著中美貿易量的減少,大型貨櫃船的需求確實有所下降。

  • However, US consumer demand didn't go away and so replacement goods were sought from elsewhere in a form of cost and tariff arbitrage. The net result, broadly the same volume of goods continued to flow into the US, but the supply chain moved away from the simplicity and concentration of the previous China focus and fragmented into a more complex and dispersed form with cargo flowing both via and from Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia.

    然而,美國消費者的需求並沒有消失,因此他們透過成本和關稅套利的方式從其他地方尋找替代商品。最終結果是,大致相同數量的貨物繼續流入美國,但供應鏈不再像以前那樣以中國為中心,而是變得更加複雜和分散,貨物既經過越南、泰國和印尼等東南亞國家,也從這些國家流出。

  • As you can imagine, supply chain concentration and simplicity plays to the strengths of really big ships. On the flip side, however, supply chain complexity and dispersion, amped up by heightened uncertainty, requires the operational flexibility of mid-size and smaller ships like ours.

    正如您所想像的,供應鏈的集中和簡單性充分發揮了大型船舶的優勢。然而,另一方面,由於不確定性的增加,供應鏈的複雜性和分散性需要像我們這樣的中型和小型船舶的營運靈活性。

  • We're waiting for more hard data as things are moving and changing so fast, but anecdotal evidence suggests that a similar phenomenon is establishing itself now in 2025, with volumes displaced from US-China being instead picked up from Southeast Asian locations.

    由於情況瞬息萬變,我們正在等待更多確鑿的數據,但有傳聞表明,2025 年也會出現類似的現象,美國和中國的出口量將被東南亞地區取代。

  • So it's obviously very early in the game. The rules are in flux and we don't have a crystal ball. However, what we can say with some confidence is that: one, the impact of tariffs is really rarely captured in a single snapshot of first order effects. Two different size segments of the container ship fleet are likely to experience tariffs quite differently. And three, in a highly uncertain environment, everyone is looking for optionality. And for the shipping lines, that optionality is capacity, often in the form of operationally flexible mid-size and smaller container ships.

    所以顯然遊戲還處於早期階段。規則不斷變化,我們沒有水晶球。然而,我們可以有信心地說的是:第一,關稅的影響很少能透過一階效應的單一快照來體現。貨櫃船隊中兩個不同規模的部分可能會遭遇截然不同的關稅。第三,在高度不確定的環境中,每個人都在尋求可選性。對於航運公司來說,這種可選性就是運力,通常表現為營運靈活的中型和小型貨櫃船。

  • Next, slide 15 provides a barometer of supply side dynamics. Both idle capacity and scrapping activity are negligible as the strong charter market has kept older vessels on the water, making lots of money. However, if demand were to drop, scrapping could pick up quickly and at scale.

    接下來,投影片 15 提供了供應側動態的晴雨表。由於強勁的租船市場讓老舊船隻繼續在海上航行,賺取了大量利潤,閒置運力和拆船活動都微不足道。然而,如果需求下降,報廢量可能會迅速大幅增加。

  • Turning to slide 16, which shows the order book, the overall order book has indeed grown in recent years, but again, nuance is important, as the 54.3% order book for ships over 10,000 TU is in sharp contrast to the 11.5% order book for our focus segments under 10,000 TU, which is itself spread out over approximately three years of deliveries.

    翻到顯示訂單簿的第 16 張幻燈片,近年來整體訂單簿確實有所增長,但同樣,細微差別很重要,因為 10,000 TU 以上船舶的 54.3% 訂單簿與我們關注的 10,000 TU 以下船舶的 11.5% 訂單簿與我們關注的 10,000 TU 以下船舶的 11.5% 訂單簿形成鮮明對比,而後者本身。

  • You also need to consider the age of the fleet into which the order book is delivering. If you were to assume the scrapping out of all ships of 25 years or older, and were then to net that capacity out against the order book, our peer group would actually contract, shrink by 6.5% through 2028.

    您還需要考慮訂單交付的船隊的年齡。如果假設所有 25 年或以上的船舶都將被報廢,然後將這些運力從訂單中扣除,那麼到 2028 年,我們的同行實際上將萎縮,萎縮 6.5%。

  • So the sub-10,000 TU fleet segment, which has a median age of 17 years, has the double benefit of being both comparatively old, and having limited replacement capacity in the pipeline. Furthermore, age is comparative rather than absolute in container ships. Does it matter if you have old ships, if the ships against which they are competing are also primarily old?

    因此,機隊規模低於 10,000 架次的飛機,其平均機齡為 17 年,具有雙重優勢:一是機齡相對較長,二是後續替換能力有限。此外,貨櫃船的船齡是相對的,而不是絕對的。如果您擁有的船隻很舊,或者與他們競爭的船隻也主要是舊船,這有關係嗎?

  • We would argue that it does not. What does matter, however, is how well specified those ships are in relation to their peer group, and that's where we are well placed. Long story short, scrapping represents a safety valve. How many ships are ultimately scrapped out remains to be seen, but it's important to remember that medium-term fleet growth of any amount in our segments is far from a certainty. And in fact, it only becomes a likely scenario if the overall market remains highly profitable, so not something we lose too much sleep over.

    我們認為事實並非如此。然而,真正重要的是這些船舶相對於同類船舶的規格如何,而這正是我們處於有利地位的。長話短說,報廢代表一個安全閥。最終有多少艘船舶被拆解還有待觀察,但重要的是要記住,我們所在領域的中期船隊增長量還遠未確定。事實上,只有當整個市場仍然保持高利潤時,這種情況才有可能出現,所以我們不會為此而失眠。

  • Slide 17 takes a closer look at the charter market. After a period of post-peak normalization, you can see that rates over the last several quarters have been quite strong. And to make this a step further in clarifying the implications for GSL, I would point out that our fleet break even rate is approximately $9,300 per vessel per day, above which the operating leverage of our business really amplifies value.

    第 17 張幻燈片詳細介紹了租船市場。經過一段時間的峰值後正常化後,你會發現過去幾季的利率一直相當強勁。為了進一步闡明這對 GSL 的影響,我想指出,我們的船隊盈虧平衡率約為每艘船每天 9,300 美元,高於此水平時,我們業務的經營槓桿確實會放大價值。

  • And we have $1.9 billion of contract cover over the next 2.3 years on average, so we feel quite good about that too, though we're not complacent and we'll continue to lock in as much as we can at attractive rates. So on that high note, I'll turn the call back to George to conclude our prepared remarks.

    我們在未來 2.3 年內平均有 19 億美元的合約保障,因此我們對此也感到非常滿意,但我們不會自滿,我們將繼續以有吸引力的價格盡可能鎖定合約。因此,在這樣的高調下,我將把電話轉回給喬治,讓他結束我們準備好的演講。

  • George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

    George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Tom. To summarize, our cash flows are strong and continue to grow, as does forward counter cover. The macro and geopolitical environment is extraordinary, volatile, and uncertain.

    謝謝你,湯姆。總而言之,我們的現金流強勁且持續成長,遠期反向覆蓋也是如此。宏觀和地緣政治環境異常、動盪、不確定。

  • Without knowing what is to come at the macro level, we're focusing on what those things that are under our control, namely making ourselves financially resilient and maximizing our optionality to both manage risk and capitalize on opportunities.

    在不知道宏觀層面會發生什麼的情況下,我們專注於那些我們可以控制的事情,即使得我們財務上具有彈性,並最大限度地提高我們的選擇性,以管理風險並利用機會。

  • Our balance sheet is robust, with a recent $85 million refinance pushing our average maturity out to 5.1 years and maintaining a weighted cost of debt below 4%. Substantial delivering has been achieved and is still underway. Break-even rates are just over $9,300 per day, per vessel, significantly lower than sky market charters, and our strong corporate credit rating reflects the strength of our balance sheet. On a selective opportunistic basis, we have monetized all the ships at cyclically attractive prices in order to build dry powder.

    我們的資產負債表穩健,最近進行的 8,500 萬美元再融資將我們的平均期限延長至 5.1 年,並將債務加權成本維持在 4% 以下。實質交付已實現並仍在進行中。每艘船的損益平衡費率略高於每天 9,300 美元,遠低於天空市場租船費率,我們強大的企業信用評級反映了我們資產負債表的強勁。在選擇性機會主義的基礎上,我們以周期性有吸引力的價格將所有船舶貨幣化,以建立乾火藥。

  • We are pleased to continue to increase our return of capital to shareholders by raising our dividend yet again, bringing it to $2.1 per common share annualized. And finally, we have positioned ourselves well to pursue opportunities as they arise, and we believe there will be opportunities to renew our fleet as certain of our cash cows age out.

    我們很高興再次提高股息,使每股普通股的年股息達到 2.1 美元,從而繼續增加對股東的資本回報。最後,我們已做好充分準備去抓住出現的機會,我們相信,隨著某些搖錢樹逐漸老化,我們將有機會更新我們的船隊。

  • Now looking ahead, GSL is in a great position to keep generating long-term value for our shareholders and maximizing optionality to capture value at each stage of the cycle.

    展望未來,GSL 處於有利地位,可以繼續為股東創造長期價值,並最大限度地利用選擇性,在周期的每個階段獲取價值。

  • Now, where did you take your questions.

    現在,你把問題帶到哪裡去了?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Liam Burke, B Riley Securities.

    (操作員指示) Liam Burke,B Riley Securities。

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • Thank you. Hi, George, Tom, Tasios.

    謝謝。嗨,喬治、湯姆、塔西奧斯。

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Hi Liam.

    你好,利亞姆。

  • George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

    George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • Hello.

    你好。

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • You've mentioned the raid environment is has been very strong, going against what freight rates are. Is there any interest on your charter customers to extend existing charters at better rates or are they -- are you just seeing a very good environment as charters roll over?

    您曾提過,攻擊環境非常嚴峻,與運費價格相反。您的包機客戶是否有興趣以更優惠的價格延長現有包機期限,或者他們是否—您只是看到了包機續約帶來的非常好的環境?

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Hi Liam, I'll try to answer that. It depends which charters are rolling off. So obviously, we fixed some charters during the super cyclical high of COVID that are still at extraordinarily high levels. So if they were to be refixed into the current market environment, it would be probably a notch down in some instances.

    嗨,利亞姆,我會盡力回答這個問題。這取決於哪些包機正在運作。顯然,我們在 COVID 的超級週期高峰期間簽訂了一些租船合同,這些租船合約目前仍然處於極高的水平。因此,如果將它們重新調整到當前的市場環境中,在某些情況下,其價格可能會下降。

  • On the flip side, we're seeing appetite to fix at still very attractive rates, and I would, I think we provided in the presentation on slide, let me find it. I think slide 17, a snapshot of where we see rates by vessel size today, and they're still pretty robust. So there will be some ups and downs, but by and large the charter opportunities that we're seeing are very attractive ones.

    另一方面,我們看到人們對以仍然非常有吸引力的利率進行修復的興趣,我想我們在幻燈片演示中已經提供了這一點,讓我找到它。我認為第 17 張幻燈片是我們今天按船舶大小看到的費率的快照,而且它們仍然相當強勁。因此會有一些起伏,但總的來說,我們看到的租船機會非常有吸引力。

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • Great, and you did opportunistically sell assets to as you said, build dry powder is there anything on the acquisition front or just asset prices just not reasonable right now?

    太好了,正如你所說,你確實抓住機會出售資產,建立乾火藥,在收購方面有什麼進展嗎,或者只是資產價格現在不合理?

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sorry, go ahead, George.

    抱歉,請繼續,喬治。

  • George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

    George Giouroukos - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • So, yeah, we are as always, looking at many deals at each given time, but we keep our criteria very strong, very up, let's say very strict. So we don't do acquisition for the sake of growth. We only do it if it makes a lot of sense financially.

    所以,是的,我們一如既往地在每個特定時間都會考慮許多交易,但我們的標準非常嚴格,非常高,可以說非常嚴格。因此,我們不會為了成長而進行收購。只有當財務上非常合理時我們才會這麼做。

  • So yes, we have seen deals, but we don't have something specific in mind.

    是的,我們已經看到了交易,但我們還沒有具體的想法。

  • The reason we sold some ships were at, the 25-year of age more or less. And we found some prices that were more lucrative than chartering them because we always look at all the options when we come to a charter. And that's why we made this decision and we keep the cash for further acquisitions and investments.

    我們出售一些船舶的原因是船齡約為 25 年。我們發現有些價格比租用更有利,因為我們在租用時總是會考慮所有的選擇。這就是我們做出這項決定的原因,我們保留現金用於進一步的收購和投資。

  • Liam Burke - Analyst

    Liam Burke - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you, George. Thank you, Tom.

    偉大的。謝謝你,喬治。謝謝你,湯姆。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

    (操作員指示)奧馬爾·諾克塔(Omar Nokta),傑富瑞(Jefferies)。

  • Omar Nokta - Analyst

    Omar Nokta - Analyst

  • Thank you. Hi, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for that always as usual detailed update.

    謝謝。嗨,大家好。午安.一如既往地感謝您提供詳細的更新。

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Our pleasure. Thanks for joining.

    我們很高興。感謝您的加入。

  • Omar Nokta - Analyst

    Omar Nokta - Analyst

  • Of course, yeah, so I just wanted to ask, and I know this is probably much very very short term, but just wanted to ask how you could maybe characterize the charter markets over the past week or so. Again, I know it's short term, but we've seen -- you especially, you've added a good amount of backlogs definitely during the first quarter. Things may seem to have gotten a bit quieter in April as everybody kind of froze and try to assess everything.

    當然,是的,所以我只是想問一下,我知道這可能只是短期現象,但我只是想問一下您如何描述過去一周左右的租船市場。再說一次,我知道這只是短期現象,但我們已經看到——尤其是你們,在第一季你們確實增加了大量的積壓訂單。四月事情似乎變得安靜了一些,因為每個人都有些冷靜並試圖評估一切。

  • Clearly now, we've seen a surge in spot freight rates over the past week following the China-US deal. How has that played out in the term-charter market? Have you noticed any kind of shift or pivot in liners kind of appetite, maybe how it -- if you can give some kind of context of how maybe it reacted to everything in April, and then perhaps what's happened here over the past week, if anything?

    顯然,中美達成協議後,過去一周現貨運費大幅上漲。這在定期租船市場表現如何?您是否注意到班輪需求有任何轉變或變化,也許它是如何的——您是否可以提供一些背景信息,說明它對 4 月份所有事情的反應,然後也許說明過去一周發生了什麼,如果有的話?

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, I would say how you've characterized the change in sentiments and momentum in the freight market. We've seen a similar thing in the charter market, so, as we've published during Q1, the appetite was there, strong, and then come Liberation Day on, I think it was April 2.

    當然,我想說一下您如何描述貨運市場的情緒和勢頭的變化。我們在包機市場上也看到了類似的情況,因此,正如我們在第一季發布的那樣,市場需求是存在的,而且很強勁,然後到了解放日,我想是 4 月 2 日。

  • There was a bit of an air pocket in the charter market where people thought that -- well, they wanted to wait and see a little bit to see how things were going to play out. So I would say that momentum came off a little bit during the course of April, and then certainly over the course of the last week or so we have seen interest and appetite pick up again.

    包機市場上出現了一些波動,人們認為——好吧,他們想稍等片刻,看看事情會如何發展。所以我想說,四月份的勢頭有所減弱,但在過去一周左右的時間裡,我們肯定看到人們的興趣和胃口再次回升。

  • So sentiment has followed a very similar trajectory in both the freight and charter markets. But having said that, because there's still very little availability of tonnage in the charter markets, charter rates have tended to remain high, albeit in the absence of much activity, while freight rates came under pressure during the course of April.

    因此,貨運和租船市場的情緒都遵循著非常相似的軌跡。但話雖如此,由於租船市場上可用的噸位仍然很少,儘管沒有太多活動,租船費率仍趨於保持高位,而 4 月份運費則面臨壓力。

  • Omar Nokta - Analyst

    Omar Nokta - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you, and maybe just one perhaps just a bit more GSL focused and kind of a follow up to Liam's, question, cash is now rising nicely. You talked about leverage having come down, you've got the dividend and buyback which have been really been put to work, the deal landscape is what it is, right? There's opportunities as they come and go.

    好的,謝謝你,也許只是一個更關注 GSL 並且跟進 Liam 的問題,現金現在正在順利增長。您談到槓桿率已經下降,股息和回購已經真正發揮作用,交易格局就是這樣,對嗎?機會來了又去。

  • But clearly, there's dry powder that you have and it's building the cash is going to start to come on. What do you think about the cash position you want to have at GSL and as -- did do you intend to just watch the cash balance pick up if there's no deals or is it get put towards repaying debt, and keeping maybe a lower level of cash than what you have now?

    但顯然,你擁有足夠的資金,而且它正在積累,現金即將開始湧入。您認為 GSL 的現金狀況如何?如果沒有交易,您是否打算只看著現金餘額增加,或將其用於償還債務,並保持比現在更低的現金水平?

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I would say that I'll take those questions not necessarily in order, Omar. So as far as delevering is concerned, as Tasios said in his prepared remarks, we've actually continued to delever following the amortization requirements under each of the debt facilities that we have. We're now at a financial leverage ratio of under 1 times, 1x, so we think that that's a very good place to be.

    好吧,我想說我將不按順序回答這些問題,奧馬爾。因此,就去槓桿而言,正如塔西奧斯在其準備好的發言中所說,我們實際上一直在按照我們所擁有的每筆債務融資的攤銷要求進行去槓桿。我們現在的財務槓桿率低於 1 倍,所以我們認為這是一個非常好的狀態。

  • But more broadly speaking, in a time of maximum uncertainty, which is certainly where we seem to be at the moment, we feel that maximal optionality is super valuable. And that's -- both in terms of the flexibility of our assets themselves, which can be moved around by the line of companies. But it's also about the resilience of our balance sheet and within that holding a very robust cash position. So that we can both manage risks as they present themselves and equally importantly, be very quick to bounce on opportunities as they arise.

    但從更廣泛的角度來看,在充滿不確定性的時期(我們目前似乎正處於這種時期),我們認為最大程度的選擇權是非常有價值的。就我們資產本身的靈活性而言,它可以由公司係列進行調動。但這也與我們的資產負債表的彈性有關,並且在此範圍內保持非常強勁的現金狀況。這樣,我們既可以在風險出現時進行管理,而且同樣重要的是,可以在機會出現時迅速抓住機會。

  • Omar Nokta - Analyst

    Omar Nokta - Analyst

  • Understood. Well, thank you, Tom. Thanks, everyone. I'll pass it over.

    明白了。好吧,謝謝你,湯姆。謝謝大家。我會把它傳給你。

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks very much, Omar.

    非常感謝,奧馬爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That's all for our Q&A session, and we appreciate your participation. I will now turn the call over to Thomas Lister, CEO of Global Ship Lease Inc, for the closing remarks. Please go ahead.

    我們的問答環節就到這裡,感謝您的參與。現在,我將把電話轉給 Global Ship Lease Inc. 執行長 Thomas Lister 做結束語。請繼續。

  • Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

    Thomas Lister - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, everyone for joining today, and we very much look forward to talking to you again, around our 2Q earnings in August. Speak to you then, we hope. Thank you very much.

    感謝大家今天的加入,我們非常期待在 8 月第二季收益方面再次與大家交談。我們希望到時候能和您談談。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。