葛蘭素史克 (GSK) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Analyst Call for the GSK First Quarter 2022 Results. I will now hand you over to Nick Stone, Head of Global Investor Relations, who will introduce today's session.

女士們，先生們，下午好，歡迎來到 GSK 2022 年第一季度業績的分析師電話會議。現在我將把你們交給全球投資者關係主管 Nick Stone，他將介紹今天的會議。

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone. Welcome to our Q1 2022 conference call and webcast for investors and analysts. The presentation was posted to gsk.com, and it was also sent by e-mail to our distribution list earlier today.

謝謝你，運營商。大家好。歡迎參加我們面向投資者和分析師的 2022 年第一季度電話會議和網絡直播。該演示文稿已發佈到 gsk.com，並且今天早些時候還通過電子郵件發送到我們的通訊組列表。

Please turn to Slide 2. This is the usual safe harbor statement, and we'll be making comments on our performance using constant exchange rates, or CER, unless otherwise stated.

請轉到幻燈片 2。這是通常的安全港聲明，除非另有說明，否則我們將使用固定匯率或 CER 對我們的業績發表評論。

Please turn to Slide 3. This is today's agenda, where we will plan to cover all aspects of our Q1 2022 results. The presentation will last approximately 25 minutes with a further 35 minutes for questions. (Operator Instructions)

請轉到幻燈片 3。這是今天的議程，我們計劃在其中涵蓋 2022 年第一季度業績的所有方面。演講將持續約 25 分鐘，還有 35 分鐘的提問時間。 （操作員說明）

Today, our speakers are Emma Walmsley; Luke Miels; Deborah Waterhouse; Brian McNamara; and Iain Mackay. The Q&A portion of the call will be joined by Hal Barron; Roger Connor; and David Redfern.

今天，我們的發言人是 Emma Walmsley；盧克·米爾斯；黛博拉·沃特豪斯；布賴恩·麥克納馬拉；和伊恩·麥凱。哈爾·巴倫 (Hal Barron) 將加入電話的問答部分；羅傑·康納；和大衛·雷德芬。

And with that, I'll now hand the call over to Emma. Please turn to Slide 4.

有了這個，我現在將把電話交給艾瑪。請轉到幻燈片 4。

Thanks, Nick, and hello to everyone joining today's call. Please turn to Slide 5. I'm very pleased to share our Q1 2022 results, which demonstrate a strong start to this landmark year for GSK. With double-digit sales growth, we're delivering on our financial commitments to a step change in performance.

謝謝，尼克，向參加今天電話會議的所有人問好。請轉到幻燈片 5。我很高興分享我們 2022 年第一季度的業績，這表明 GSK 在這一具有里程碑意義的一年中有了一個良好的開端。憑藉兩位數的銷售額增長，我們正在履行財務承諾，實現業績的階梯式變化。

In the first quarter, sales increased 32%, adjusted operating profit increased 39% and adjusted EPS grew 43% to 32.8p per share. Sales growth was driven by excellent commercial execution and strong demand across the whole portfolio. Biopharma sales increased 40%, 15% excluding Xevudy. And across the 3 Biopharma business areas, specialty medicines delivered 97% growth to GBP 3.1 billion, with strong double-digit growth across all areas particularly HIV. I was pleased to see Xevudy contribute to COVID-19 solutions at scale. And excluding Xevudy, Specialty Medicines also grew 15%.

第一季度銷售額增長 32%，調整後營業利潤增長 39%，調整後每股收益增長 43% 至 32.8 便士。出色的商業執行力和整個產品組合的強勁需求推動了銷售額的增長。生物製藥銷售額增長 40%，不包括 Xevudy 增長 15%。在 3 個生物製藥業務領域，特種藥物實現了 97% 的增長，達到 31 億英鎊，所有領域（尤其是 HIV）均實現了強勁的兩位數增長。我很高興看到 Xevudy 大規模地為 COVID-19 解決方案做出貢獻。不包括 Xevudy，特種藥物也增長了 15%。

Vaccine sales increased 36% to GBP 1.7 billion driven primarily by Shingrix, which delivered its best quarter yet, more than doubling sales as we continue our global launch program across several countries and patient demand returned. General Medicines also grew 3%, reflecting strong growth from Trelegy. And Consumer Healthcare delivered 14% sales growth in the quarter, benefiting from strong growth across all categories, particularly respiratory health.

疫苗銷售額增長了 36%，達到 17 億英鎊，這主要是由 Shingrix 推動的，該季度實現了迄今為止最好的季度銷售額，隨著我們在多個國家繼續我們的全球啟動計劃和患者需求的回升，銷售額翻了一番多。 General Medicines 也增長了 3%，反映出 Trelegy 的強勁增長。消費保健品在本季度實現了 14% 的銷售額增長，這得益於所有類別的強勁增長，尤其是呼吸健康。

This is, of course, the last full quarter ahead of creating a new independent company, Haleon, with a focused strategy to deliver sustainable above-market growth and attractive returns to shareholders. As a new stand-alone company dedicated to consumer health, Haleon is a compelling prospect with an outstanding brand portfolio and fantastic leadership team led by CEO Designate, Brian McNamara.

當然，這是創建新的獨立公司 Haleon 之前的最後一個完整季度，其重點戰略是實現可持續的高於市場的增長並為股東帶來有吸引力的回報。作為一家致力於消費者健康的新獨立公司，Haleon 擁有出色的品牌組合和由候任首席執行官 Brian McNamara 領導的出色領導團隊，前景令人矚目。

We are absolutely on track with the demerger, having very successfully raised the necessary debt and delivered all significant technical system cutovers. Brian will share more on our progress and performance shortly, and I know he is very much looking forward to your questions.

我們完全走上了分拆的軌道，非常成功地籌集了必要的債務並交付了所有重要的技術系統切換。 Brian 很快會分享更多關於我們的進展和表現，我知道他非常期待您的提問。

On our innovation-driven transformation, we continue to advance with recent regulatory approvals in Specialty Medicines, particularly HIV, with the U.S. approval of Cabenuva every 2 months; the label update that makes the oral lead-in period optional and the update for virologically suppressed adolescents aged 12 years and older living with HIV.

在我們以創新為驅動的轉型中，我們繼續推進最近對特種藥物的監管批准，特別是 HIV，美國每 2 個月批准一次 Cabenuva；使口服導入期成為可選的標籤更新，以及針對病毒學抑制的 12 歲及以上感染 HIV 青少年的更新。

In addition, the U.S. FDA also approved Triumeq pediatric, the first dispersible single-tablet regimen containing dolutegravir as a once-daily treatment for children living with HIV. And in immunology, China approved Benlysta for active lupus nephritis.

此外，美國 FDA 還批准了 Triumeq 兒科藥物，這是第一個含有多替拉韋的分散單片方案，用於治療感染 HIV 的兒童，每日一次。在免疫學方面，中國批准了 Benlysta 用於活動性狼瘡性腎炎。

Our innovation-driven transformation continues to advance with recent regulatory approvals in Specialty Medicines. In particular, in HIV, we received several important label updates, and Deborah will take you through these later on.

我們的創新驅動轉型繼續推進，最近在特殊藥物領域獲得監管批准。特別是在 HIV 方面，我們收到了幾個重要的標籤更新，Deborah 稍後將帶您了解這些。

In the quarter, we continued our investment in R&D with the proposed acquisition of Sierra Oncology for $1.9 billion. We've consistently said we're pursuing targeted business development to augment and complement our organic pipeline, great opportunities with strategic fit. And this acquisition aligns with our strategy of building a strong portfolio of new and Specialty Medicines alongside our Vaccines portfolio.

本季度，我們繼續投資研發，擬以 19 億美元收購 Sierra Oncology。我們一直表示，我們正在追求有針對性的業務發展，以增強和補充我們的有機渠道，這是具有戰略契合性的巨大機遇。此次收購符合我們的戰略，即在我們的疫苗產品組合的同時建立強大的新藥和特種藥物產品組合。

The deal is expected to contribute to '23 sales with adjusted EPS accretion in 2024. And in a moment, Luke will highlight why we believe momelotinib has the potential to address a critical unmet medical need in myelofibrosis patients with anemia and complement our hem-onc business.

該交易預計將在 2024 年通過調整後的 EPS 增長為 '23 銷售額做出貢獻。稍後，Luke 將強調為什麼我們相信 momelotinib 有潛力解決骨髓纖維化貧血患者未滿足的關鍵醫療需求，並補充我們的 hem-onc商業。

Overall, we see these results as a very encouraging start to the year despite the reality of macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges today. We're very confident in reaffirming our full year '22 guidance, 5% to 7% sales growth and 12% to 14% adjusted operating profit growth at CER.

總體而言，儘管當今面臨宏觀經濟和地緣政治挑戰，但我們認為這些結果是今年非常令人鼓舞的開端。我們非常有信心重申我們全年的 22 年指導、5% 至 7% 的銷售增長和 12% 至 14% 的 CER 調整後營業利潤增長。

Turning to Slide 6. The first quarter was another period of excellent progress across all 3 of our long-term strategic priorities. In innovation, in addition to the examples I just gave, we also received the U.S. and EU regulatory submission acceptances for daprodustat, a potential best-in-class medicine for treating anemia or chronic kidney disease. And the U.S. FDA has set a PDUFA date of the 1st of February 2023.

轉到幻燈片 6。第一季度是我們在所有 3 個長期戰略重點方面取得出色進展的又一個時期。在創新方面，除了我剛才舉的例子，我們還收到了美國和歐盟對 daprodustat 的監管提交驗收，daprodustat 是一種潛在的一流藥物，用於治療貧血或慢性腎病。美國 FDA 將 PDUFA 日期定為 2023 年 2 月 1 日。

In performance, our execution [level has] strengthened as you'll hear from the team shortly. Although flattered by the comparison to Q1 2021, underlying demand is clearly strong. And lastly, on trust, we continue to progress our ESG leadership, executing our ambitious commitments to differentiate GSK on ESG delivery.

在性能方面，我們的執行力 [水平] 得到了加強，您很快就會從團隊中聽到這一點。儘管與 2021 年第一季度相比令人受寵若驚，但潛在需求顯然強勁。最後，在信任的基礎上，我們繼續提升我們在 ESG 方面的領導地位，履行我們雄心勃勃的承諾，使 GSK 在 ESG 交付方面脫穎而出。

Turning to Slide 7. As our innovation-driven transformation gains momentum, 2022 is an important year for several significant late-stage milestones. In Q2, we expect the results for RSV older adults with an anticipated regulatory submission before the year-end, potentially putting us on a path for inclusion in the June 23 ACIP meeting. These represent a significant unmet medical need, with RSV infections accounting for around 180,000 hospitalizations each year and about 14,000 deaths in the over 65 population in the U.S. alone.

轉到幻燈片 7。隨著我們以創新為驅動的轉型獲得動力，2022 年是實現幾個重要後期里程碑的重要一年。在第二季度，我們預計 RSV 老年人的結果將在年底前提交給監管機構，這可能會讓我們走上參與 6 月 23 日 ACIP 會議的道路。這些代表了未滿足的重大醫療需求，僅在美國 65 歲以上的人口中，RSV 感染每年就導致約 180,000 例住院治療和約 14,000 例死亡。

In the second half, we have several late-stage readouts, including the pivotal DREAMM-3 trial readout for Blenrep in patients with third-line multiple myeloma and the Phase IIb data for bepirovirsen, for patients with chronic hep B infection. There is a significant unmet medical need for these patients with over 300 million people living with hep B, and the disease is responsible for over 900,000 deaths each year. This is an exciting year for our high-quality pipeline, and I'm encouraged by the progress this quarter.

在下半年，我們有幾個後期讀數，包括 Blenrep 用於三線多發性骨髓瘤患者的關鍵 DREAMM-3 試驗讀數和貝匹羅韋森用於慢性乙肝感染患者的 IIb 期數據。超過 3 億人患有乙肝，這些患者的醫療需求未得到滿足，該病每年導致超過 900,000 人死亡。對於我們的高質量管道來說，今年是激動人心的一年，我對本季度取得的進展感到鼓舞。

And with that, I'll now hand it over to the team. Luke, first over to you.

有了這個，我現在將把它交給團隊。盧克，首先交給你。

Thanks, Emma. Please turn to Slide 9. During the quarter, our commercial pharma business continued to deliver strong performance. In Specialty Meds, including HIV, which Deborah will speak about momentarily, we increased sales by 15% excluding Xevudy. We continue to see double-digit growth from our market-leading lupus medicine, Benlysta, up 18%. And we are pleased to see the expansion into lupus nephritis in China and Japan, driving new patient studies.

謝謝，艾瑪。請轉到幻燈片 9。本季度，我們的商業製藥業務繼續表現強勁。在 Deborah 即將談到的包括 HIV 在內的特種藥物中，我們在不包括 Xevudy 的情況下增加了 15% 的銷售額。我們繼續看到我們市場領先的狼瘡藥物 Benlysta 實現兩位數增長，增長 18%。我們很高興看到在中國和日本擴大到狼瘡性腎炎，推動了新的患者研究。

In Oncology, sales increased 15% despite a headwind in the ovarian cancer area where, unfortunately, diagnosis rates are still depressed, down about 29% compared to pre-COVID levels. We're also pleased to contribute pandemic solutions with around GBP 1.3 billion of Xevudy sales in the first quarter. And as COVID is an ever-evolving landscape, we're having ongoing discussions with regulators and working at pace with (inaudible) to add to the data set.

在腫瘤學領域，儘管卵巢癌領域遭遇逆風，但不幸的是，該領域的診斷率仍然低迷，與 COVID 之前的水平相比，銷售額下降了約 29%。我們也很高興為第一季度 Xevudy 銷售額約 13 億英鎊的大流行病解決方案做出貢獻。由於 COVID 是一個不斷發展的景觀，我們正在與監管機構進行持續討論，並與（聽不清）同步添加到數據集。

On the right hand of the slide, you can see that we've spotlighted the fantastic performance with Nucala, up 16% in the quarter. Nucala remains a leading IL-5 in key markets like the U.S., Japan and the EU 5, and it's the only biologic approved for 4 indications across eosinophilic diseases. The new indications and deeper penetration in severe eosinophilic asthma represent further growth opportunities, and these are complemented by our long-term, bi-cycle innovation plans with Phase III trials for Nucala and COPD, of course, our long-acting IL-5 depemokimab both expected to read out in 2024.

在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到我們突出了 Nucala 的出色表現，本季度增長了 16%。 Nucala 在美國、日本和歐盟 5 等主要市場仍然是領先的 IL-5，它是唯一被批准用於嗜酸性粒細胞疾病 4 種適應症的生物製劑。嚴重嗜酸性粒細胞哮喘的新適應症和更深入的滲透代表了進一步的增長機會，這些得到了我們長期的雙週期創新計劃的補充，包括 Nucala 和 COPD 的 III 期試驗，當然還有我們的長效 IL-5 depemokimab兩者都預計將在 2024 年宣讀。

And finally, our General Meds portfolio was up 3% this quarter with classic and established product declines more than offset by strong Trelegy growth, up 35% in the quarter. We continue to lead the triple market in the U.S. and Japan with new increasing new-to-brand prescriptions and overall market share gains.

最後，我們的 General Meds 產品組合本季度增長了 3%，經典產品和既定產品的跌幅被 Trelegy 的強勁增長所抵消，本季度增長了 35%。我們繼續引領美國和日本的三聯市場，新品牌處方的增加和整體市場份額的增長。

Now if you could just turn to Slide 10, please. Moving to Vaccines. We had a very strong recovery for Shingrix, which helped drive sales growth of 36%. Shingrix sales more than doubled, delivering a record quarter of nearly GBP 700 million of turnover. And the strong performance is reflected in the benefit of a favorable comparator, good demand and channel inventory build, including a large retail purchase that we do not expect to repeat in Q2.

現在，請轉到幻燈片 10。轉向疫苗。 Shingrix 的複蘇非常強勁，這有助於推動銷售額增長 36%。 Shingrix 的銷售額翻了一番以上，實現了近 7 億英鎊的創紀錄季度營業額。強勁的表現反映在有利的比較、良好的需求和渠道庫存構建的好處上，包括我們預計第二季度不會重複的大量零售採購。

In the U.S., encouragingly, pharmacists are beginning to prioritize Shingrix as the second preferred vaccine, with around 50% now indicating now looking to increase Shingrix vaccinations. In Europe, strong growth benefited from high demand in Germany and contributions from new launches as our geographic expansion is making Shingrix more widely available. Shingrix is now available in 19 countries globally, and our unconstrained supply position puts us on track to expand to 35 countries by 2024, making Shingrix available in nearly 90% of the global vaccine market.

在美國，令人鼓舞的是，藥劑師開始優先考慮將 Shingrix 作為第二首選疫苗，目前約有 50% 的藥劑師表示正在尋求增加 Shingrix 疫苗接種。在歐洲，強勁的增長得益於德國的高需求和新產品的貢獻，因為我們的地域擴張使 Shingrix 的應用範圍更廣。 Shingrix 現在在全球 19 個國家/地區有售，我們不受限制的供應狀況使我們有望在 2024 年之前擴展到 35 個國家/地區，從而使 Shingrix 在全球近 90% 的疫苗市場上都有售。

As shown on this slide, we see increased contribution from our geographic expansion efforts. And this year, we're on track for a record year for Shingrix with double-digit sales growth, and we expect contributions to build from new launch markets as we move through the year versus the stronger comparative quarters in the second half. Shingrix will be a key driver of this year's expected low teens sales growth in vaccines excluding pandemic solutions. And Shingrix is well positioned to deliver the ambitions we laid out last year for our 2026 commitments to growth.

如本幻燈片所示，我們看到我們的地域擴張努力增加了貢獻。今年，我們有望為 Shingrix 創下兩位數的銷售增長記錄，我們預計隨著我們在今年的發展，與下半年更強勁的比較季度相比，新推出市場的貢獻將會增加。 Shingrix 將成為今年疫苗（不包括大流行解決方案）預期低十幾歲銷售增長的主要推動力。 Shingrix 完全有能力實現我們去年為 2026 年增長承諾制定的雄心壯志。

Please turn to Slide 11. Earlier, you heard Emma highlight the strategic rationale for our proposed acquisition of Sierra Oncology. I want to now focus on the benefit of momelotinib as a potential new medicine to address a critical unmet need in myelofibrosis patients with anemia. Anemia is a significant issue in myelofibrosis caused by 2 drivers: first, the natural progression of the disease where the bone marrow is progressively failing, causing cytopenia, of which anemia is the most frequent; and second, the standard of care treatment for myelofibrosis is dominated by myelosuppressive JAK inhibitors.

請轉到幻燈片 11。早些時候，您聽到 Emma 強調了我們擬議收購 Sierra Oncology 的戰略依據。我現在想重點談談莫美洛替尼作為一種潛在新藥的好處，它可以解決骨髓纖維化貧血患者未滿足的關鍵需求。貧血是骨髓纖維化的一個重要問題，由兩個驅動因素引起：首先，疾病的自然進展，骨髓逐漸衰竭，導致血細胞減少，其中貧血最為常見；其次，骨髓纖維化的標準治療以骨髓抑制性 JAK 抑製劑為主。

Many patients sooner or later will become transfusion-dependent. And on the left side of Slide 11, you can see that transfusion is an independent prognostic factor, with the transfusion-dependent patients having significantly worse survival. This is a significant challenge with the right side showing how significant a challenge it is. Up to 30% of patients who've still not received a JAK inhibitor already require transfusion. That number goes up to 30% of patients who have already been treated with JAK inhibitors. With momelotinib, we're excited to have an opportunity to bring a potential new medicine to GSK, which is differentiated in a segment of patients with a high unmet medical need.

許多患者遲早會變得依賴輸血。在幻燈片 11 的左側，您可以看到輸血是一個獨立的預後因素，依賴輸血的患者的生存率明顯更差。這是一個重大挑戰，右側顯示了它的重大挑戰。高達 30% 的尚未接受 JAK 抑製劑治療的患者已經需要輸血。在已經接受過 JAK 抑製劑治療的患者中，這個數字高達 30%。有了 momelotinib，我們很高興有機會為葛蘭素史克帶來一種潛在的新藥，該藥在醫療需求未得到滿足的部分患者中與眾不同。

With that, I'll now hand it over to Deborah on Slide 12.

有了這個，我現在將它交給幻燈片 12 上的 Deborah。

Thanks, Luke. Our Q1 performance demonstrates continued momentum towards delivering our objective of remaining innovation leaders in HIV and achieving a mid-single-digit sales CAGR to 2026. We have seen continued momentum throughout the quarter in our innovation sales, which now accounts for 38% of our portfolio and all regions reported growth. Sales grew 14% during the quarter, reflecting strong confidence levels in our 2 drug regimens and building momentum for Cabenuva. Q1 performance benefited from favorable tender phasing in the international region and stocking patterns in the U.S., accounting for around 9 percentage growth points. Our ambition for the year remains to deliver mid-single-digit growth.

謝謝，盧克。我們第一季度的業績表明，我們在實現保持 HIV 創新領導者的目標以及到 2026 年實現中個位數銷售額複合年增長率的目標方面持續保持勢頭。我們在整個季度看到了創新銷售額的持續增長勢頭，目前占我們的 38%投資組合和所有地區都報告了增長。本季度銷售額增長 14%，反映出對我們的 2 種藥物治療方案的強烈信心以及 Cabenuva 的勢頭。第一季度業績受益於國際地區有利的招標階段和美國的庫存模式，增長約 9 個百分點。我們今年的目標仍然是實現中個位數增長。

Dovato continues to perform strongly, delivering GBP 257 million of sales, representing 82% year-on-year growth. Dolutegravir-based regimens continue to hold the #1 position in the share of the switch market across the U.S. and Europe. Dovato is on track to deliver at least GBP 1 billion of sales in 2022 with significant further growth potential beyond.

Dovato 繼續表現強勁，實現了 2.57 億英鎊的銷售額，同比增長 82%。基於 Dolutegravir 的方案繼續在美國和歐洲的轉換市場份額中佔據第一的位置。 Dovato 有望在 2022 年實現至少 10 億英鎊的銷售額，並具有顯著的進一步增長潛力。

Turning to our injectable portfolio. Cabenuva is our first-in-class, long-acting treatment regimen for HIV. Sales doubled quarter-on-quarter, delivering GBP 38 million, and more than 6,000 people living with HIV are now taking the medicine. The U.S. FDA approved several label updates, simplifying the patient and physician experience. The approval and launch of the every-2-months dosing in the U.S. in February has driven a positive inflection in the medicine. Cabenuva or a lead-in is now optional. We believe removing the oral lead-in requirement will expedite the initiation of this injectable therapy. The U.S. FDA also approved an expanded indication for Cabenuva to include virologically suppressed adolescents aged 12 and older living with HIV.

轉向我們的可注射產品組合。 Cabenuva 是我們一流的長效 HIV 治療方案。銷售額環比翻了一番，實現了 3800 萬英鎊的銷售額，現在有超過 6000 名艾滋病病毒感染者正在服用該藥。美國 FDA 批准了多項標籤更新，簡化了患者和醫生的體驗。 2 月份在美國批准並推出每 2 個月一次的劑量，推動了藥物的積極變化。 Cabenuva 或導入現在是可選的。我們相信取消口服導入要求將加快這種注射療法的啟動。美國 FDA 還批准了 Cabenuva 的擴展適應症，以包括病毒學抑制的 12 歲及以上感染 HIV 的青少年。

Moving on to prevention. We've launched Apretude in the U.S. Apretude is the world's first long-acting injectable for the prevention of HIV dosed every 2 months. We have high levels of ambition for this medicine, and the initial launch activity building awareness and access for Apretude with positive early demand from patients and prescribers.

繼續預防。我們已經在美國推出了 Apretude。Apretude 是世界上第一個用於預防 HIV 的長效注射劑，每 2 個月注射一次。我們對這種藥物抱有很高的雄心，並且最初的啟動活動建立了對 Apretude 的認識和獲取，並得到了患者和處方者的積極早期需求。

I'm also pleased that we have made significant progress to enable access to this medicine in resource-poor countries by announcing an extension of our partnership with the Medicines Patent Pool, which has been incredibly successful in enabling access with -- to more than 22 million people now taking a dolutegravir-based regimen.

我也很高興我們宣布延長與藥品專利池的合作夥伴關係，從而在資源貧乏國家獲得這種藥物方面取得了重大進展，該專利池在使超過 22 個國家獲得藥物方面取得了令人難以置信的成功百萬人現在正在接受以多替拉韋為基礎的治療方案。

Finally, the U.S. FDA approved Triumeq pediatric, the first disposable single-tablet regimen containing dolutegravir, a once-daily treatment for children living with HIV. To ensure that none of the 1.7 million children living with HIV is left behind, this approval means we are one step closer to closing the gap between the HIV treatment options available to adults and children.

最後，美國 FDA 批准了 Triumeq 兒科藥物，這是第一個包含多替拉韋的一次性單片療法，這是一種針對感染 HIV 的兒童的每日一次治療。為確保 170 萬感染艾滋病毒的兒童中沒有一個被落下，這一批准意味著我們離縮小成人和兒童可用的艾滋病毒治療方案之間的差距又近了一步。

I will now turn it over to Brian. Please turn to Slide 13.

我現在將把它交給布賴恩。請轉到幻燈片 13。

Thanks, Deborah. Turning to Consumer Healthcare. Before taking you through first quarter results, let me give you an update on the demerger process, where we've made significant progress as we enter the final stages of separation. During the quarter, we launched our new company name, Haleon, hosted our first Capital Markets Day and appointed [6 members] to the designate Board. We've also secured the long-term capital structure of the business, raising bonds across a variety of maturities at attractive rates, and we established our debt facilities. Finally, we completed the technology systems cutover, a significant milestone for us. Looking ahead, the next major steps include the publication of the equity prospectus in June, with a shareholder vote in July.

謝謝，黛博拉。轉向消費者保健。在向您介紹第一季度業績之前，讓我向您介紹一下分拆過程的最新情況，我們在進入分拆的最後階段時取得了重大進展。在本季度，我們啟用了新公司名稱 Haleon，舉辦了我們的第一個資本市場日，並任命了 [6 名成員] 到指定董事會。我們還確保了企業的長期資本結構，以具有吸引力的利率籌集各種期限的債券，並建立了債務融資機制。最終，我們完成了技術系統割接，這是我們的一個重要里程碑。展望未來，接下來的主要步驟包括在 6 月發布股權招股說明書，並在 7 月進行股東投票。

In the first quarter, we had a strong start to the year. Revenue was up 14% and up 16% organically, driven by robust commercial performance with broad-based growth across all our categories and regions. Strong cold and flu performance delivered a 5 percentage point benefit to total growth and advanced sales ahead of the system cutover in April contributed a 2% uplift.

第一季度，我們開局強勁。收入增長 14%，有機增長 16%，這得益於強勁的商業業績以及我們所有類別和地區的廣泛增長。強勁的感冒和流感表現為總增長帶來了 5 個百分點的收益，而在 4 月份系統切換之前的高級銷售貢獻了 2% 的提升。

Our first quarter organic revenue growth was split 3% from price and 13% from volume and mix. This growth was also competitive, with positive momentum in our overall market share with 7 of the 9 power brands holding or gaining share. E-commerce sales continued to see strong growth in the high teens, and this is now 9% of revenue.

我們第一季度的有機收入增長分別來自價格 3% 和 13% 來自數量和組合。這種增長也具有競爭力，我們的整體市場份額呈現積極勢頭，9 大品牌中有 7 個持有或獲得份額。電子商務銷售額在青少年群體中繼續強勁增長，目前佔收入的 9%。

Similar to consumer peers, we saw continued pressure from cost inflation. However, operating leverage and pricing, combined with the delivery of the Pfizer synergies enabled us to increase operating margin by 230 basis points at constant exchange rates to 24.7% while increasing investment in A&P and R&D. Given the very strong growth in the quarter, we remain confident in delivering full year sales in line with our medium-term organic annual revenue guidance of 4% to 6%.

與消費同行類似，我們看到成本通脹帶來的持續壓力。然而，經營槓桿和定價，再加上輝瑞協同效應的實現，使我們能夠以固定匯率將經營利潤率提高 230 個基點，達到 24.7%，同時增加對 A&P 和研發的投資。鑑於本季度的強勁增長，我們仍然有信心按照我們 4% 至 6% 的中期有機年收入目標實現全年銷售額。

Please turn to Slide 14. Taking you through our performance, starting with growth for the quarter across our categories at constant exchange rates as a segment of GSK. In oral health, sales increased 9%, with continued strength in Sensodyne and Parodontax, supported by a continued rebound in denture care. Pain relief was up double digits with over 30% growth in Advil and Panadol positively impacted by Omicron along with a stable performance in Voltaren.

請轉到幻燈片 14。帶您了解我們的業績，首先是本季度作為 GSK 的一個部門以固定匯率計算的所有類別的增長。在口腔保健方面，在假牙護理業務持續反彈的支持下，舒適達和 Parodontax 的銷售額增長了 9%。止痛藥增長了兩位數，Advil 和 Panadol 的增長超過 30%，這得益於 Omicron 的積極影響以及 Voltaren 的穩定表現。

Across vitamins, minerals and supplements, 15% growth was driven by the strength in Centrum and Emergen-C, benefiting from increased capacity to meet strong consumer demand. Respiratory sales were up over 50% driven by a strong cold and flu performance, where brands were up nearly 90%, overall delivering about a 5 percentage point benefit to overall growth. Digestive health and other sales were down 1%; but excluding brands divested, up 4%. In digestive health, ENO and TUMS performed particularly well.

在維生素、礦物質和補充劑方面，15% 的增長是由 Centrum 和 Emergen-C 的實力推動的，受益於滿足強勁消費者需求的產能增加。在強勁的感冒和流感表現的推動下，呼吸系統銷售額增長了 50% 以上，其中品牌增長了近 90%，總體上為整體增長帶來了約 5 個百分點的收益。消化健康和其他銷售額下降了 1%；但不包括剝離的品牌，增長 4%。在消化系統健康方面，ENO 和 TUMS 表現尤為出色。

Please turn to Slide 15. The top of this slide shows how GSK reports our business by region. However, I'd like to take you through the Haleon regional detail and our organic revenue growth. This is how we'll report going forward and is consistent with what we shared at our Capital Markets Day. North American sales increased 17%, helped by strong growth in respiratory in the U.S., where cold and flu was ahead of 2019 levels. Additionally, during the quarter, pain relief was up over 20% driven by strong Advil sales benefited from resale stocking patterns and the Omicron wave. We also saw a strong growth in VMS, particularly in emergency.

請翻到幻燈片 15。這張幻燈片的頂部顯示了 GSK 如何按地區報告我們的業務。不過，我想帶你了解一下 Haleon 的區域細節和我們的有機收入增長。這就是我們未來的報告方式，並且與我們在資本市場日分享的內容一致。北美銷售額增長了 17%，這得益於美國呼吸道疾病的強勁增長，美國感冒和流感的發病率高於 2019 年的水平。此外，在本季度，由於 Advil 的強勁銷售受益於轉售庫存模式和 Omicron 浪潮，疼痛緩解率上升了 20% 以上。我們還看到了 VMS 的強勁增長，尤其是在緊急情況下。

Asia Pacific was up 15% helped by COVID-related demand, with double-digit growth in Southeast Asia, India and Australia. In China, we also saw double-digit growth, with Centrum up over 20% and good growth in Caltrate and Sensodyne. In Australia, we saw a strong growth of Panadol with sales up nearly 50%.

受 COVID 相關需求的推動，亞太地區增長了 15%，其中東南亞、印度和澳大利亞實現了兩位數增長。在中國，我們也看到了兩位數的增長，Centrum 增長超過 20%，Caltrate 和 Sensodyne 增長良好。在澳大利亞，我們看到了 Panadol 的強勁增長，銷售額增長了近 50%。

Finally, looking at Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America. First quarter sales were up 14% or 10% excluding the sell-in ahead of the systems cutover and a distribution model change. This was particularly strong growth in Latin America and Central Eastern Europe. Additionally, Southern Europe saw a double-digit growth in Spain and Italy.

最後，看看歐洲、中東、非洲和拉丁美洲。第一季度銷售額增長 14% 或 10%，不包括系統轉換和分銷模式變更之前的銷售。拉丁美洲和中東歐的增長尤為強勁。此外，南歐的西班牙和意大利也實現了兩位數的增長。

The strong growth in respiratory was a key factor along with good growth across a number of our power brands, including Sensodyne, Parodontax, Panadol and Centrum. All of this offset some weakness from Voltaren in the region.

呼吸系統的強勁增長是一個關鍵因素，同時我們的許多強大品牌（包括 Sensodyne、Parodontax、Panadol 和 Centrum）也實現了良好增長。所有這些都抵消了 Voltaren 在該地區的一些弱點。

So overall, a very good start to the year, clearly demonstrating the strength of execution across our markets. Looking ahead, we do expect macroeconomic pressure over the course of the year. And in the back half, we have a tougher comparator with double-digit growth in 2021. We remain confident in delivering on our in-year and medium-term guidance of 4% to 6% organic annual revenue growth.

總的來說，今年的開局非常好，清楚地展示了我們整個市場的執行力。展望未來，我們確實預計全年都會面臨宏觀經濟壓力。在下半年，我們有一個更嚴格的比較器，2021 年將實現兩位數的增長。我們仍然有信心實現 4% 至 6% 有機年收入增長的年內和中期指導。

Finally, I'm incredibly proud of our teams and the business' ability to navigate the volatile trading environment over the last couple of years while, at the same time, making strong progress towards separation. Along with everyone across the business, I am excited about the potential of Haleon and our future as a stand-alone business from July. I look forward to engaging with you more on Haleon as we get closer to separation and thereafter.

最後，我為我們的團隊和企業在過去幾年中應對動蕩的交易環境的能力感到無比自豪，同時在分離方面取得了長足的進步。從 7 月開始，我和整個企業的每個人一樣，對 Haleon 的潛力以及我們作為獨立企業的未來感到興奮。隨著我們離分離越來越近，以及之後，我期待著與您就 Haleon 進行更多的交流。

I'll hand it over to Iain.

我會把它交給伊恩。

Thank you, Brian. As I cover the financials, references to growth are at constant exchange rates unless stated otherwise.

謝謝你，布萊恩。在我介紹財務數據時，除非另有說明，否則提及的增長均採用固定匯率。

Please turn to Slide 17. For the first quarter of 2022, turnover was GBP 9.8 billion, up 32%; and adjusted operating profit was GBP 2.6 billion, up 39%. Total earnings per share were 35.9p, up 66%, while adjusted earnings per share were 32.8p, up 43%. Pandemic solutions contributed approximately 11 points of growth to adjusted operating profit and 15 points of comp growth to adjusted earnings per share. The currency impact was neutral in sales and adjusted earnings per share.

請翻到幻燈片 17。2022 年第一季度，營業額為 98 億英鎊，增長 32%；調整後營業利潤為 26 億英鎊，增長 39%。每股總收益為 35.9 便士，增長 66%，而調整後的每股收益為 32.8 便士，增長 43%。大流行病解決方案為調整後的營業利潤貢獻了約 11 個增長點，為調整後的每股收益貢獻了 15 個百分點的增長。貨幣對銷售額和調整後每股收益的影響是中性的。

The main adjusting items of note in Q1 were in disposals and other, which primarily reflected the upfront income from the settlement with Gilead and in transaction related primarily reflected ViiV, CCL movements, which were mainly associated with foreign exchange.

一季度主要調整項目為處置及其他，主要反映與吉利德結算的前期收入，交易相關主要反映ViiV、CCL變動，主要與外匯相關。

My comments from here onwards are on adjusted results unless stated dollar-wise. Turn to Page 18. Total sales growth was 32%, driven by strong performance across the group. Total sales growth for GSK's Commercial Operations segment was 40% overall and 15% excluding pandemic related sales. This reflected strong all-round performance as all product areas benefited from strong demand trends and the continued recovery from pandemic-related disruptions, which provided a favorable Q1 comparator.

除非以美元為單位，否則我從這裡開始的評論都是針對調整後的結果。翻到第 18 頁。在整個集團的強勁表現的推動下，總銷售額增長了 32%。葛蘭素史克商業運營部門的總銷售額增長了 40%，不包括與大流行相關的銷售額增長了 15%。這反映出強勁的全面表現，因為所有產品領域都受益於強勁的需求趨勢和從大流行相關中斷中持續復甦，這提供了有利的第一季度比較。

Of the 15% ex pandemic growth, around 4 percentage points were from Shingrix in the U.S., including the channel inventory build as well as broad demand recovery. Around 3 percentage points were from HIV, of which about 2/3 were tender phasing, U.S. ordering patterns and U.S. channel inventory movement that we expect to reverse in Q2.

在大流行前 15% 的增長中，約 4 個百分點來自美國的 Shingrix，包括渠道庫存增加和廣泛的需求復蘇。大約 3 個百分點來自 HIV，其中大約 2/3 是招標階段、美國訂購模式和我們預計在第二季度扭轉的美國渠道庫存變動。

It was approximately an additional point for each of Augmentin's seasonal rebound and favorable RAR adjustments. Taken together, adjusting for the benefit of Xevudy and the dynamics I've mentioned, Commercial Operations growth was in the high single-digit range. Brian has already taken you through the sales performance in Consumer, and the key category drivers are set out in this slide.

這大約是 Augmentin 的季節性反彈和有利的 RAR 調整的一個額外點。綜合起來，根據 Xevudy 的好處和我提到的動態進行調整，商業運營增長處於高個位數範圍內。 Brian 已經帶您了解了消費者領域的銷售業績，這張幻燈片中列出了關鍵類別驅動因素。

Turning to the next slide. The group delivered a 130 basis points improvement to 26.7% adjusted operating margin, supported by positive operating leverage from the 32% sales growth. Within cost of goods sold, the increase primarily related to higher sales of Xevudy, which increased the cost of sales margin by 7 percentage points.

轉到下一張幻燈片。在 32% 的銷售增長帶來的積極經營槓桿的支持下，該集團實現了 130 個基點的改善，達到 26.7% 的調整後經營利潤率。在銷貨成本中，增長主要與 Xevudy 的銷售額增加有關，這使銷售利潤成本增加了 7 個百分點。

Excluding Xevudy, cost of goods sold were 1.7 point -- were a 1.7 point benefit to margin driven by favorable business mix with 60% of Commercial Operations sales ex pandemic being from Specialty Medicines and Vaccines compared to 55% in 1Q last year. This mix benefit was partly offset by a modest increase in commodity prices and freight costs, which we continue to manage closely.

不包括 Xevudy 在內，銷售成本為 1.7 個百分點——在有利的業務組合的推動下，利潤率提高了 1.7 個百分點，大流行前 60% 的商業運營銷售額來自專業藥品和疫苗，而去年第一季度為 55%。這種混合收益部分被商品價格和運費的適度上漲所抵消，我們將繼續對其進行密切管理。

Within SG&A, we continue to see tight, controlled costs, which remains a key focus for us as well, as restructuring benefits. The SG&A growth reflected increased investment in launches particularly in HIV vaccines and a more normal level of brand investment in Consumer. There was also a beneficial legal settlement in Q1 last year of around GBP 60 million.

在 SG&A 中，我們繼續看到緊縮的、受控的成本，這仍然是我們關注的重點，也是重組的好處。 SG&A 的增長反映了對發布的投資增加，尤其是在 HIV 疫苗方面，以及對消費者品牌投資的正常水平。去年第一季度還達成了約 6000 萬英鎊的有益法律和解。

Moving to R&D. The 7% increase was primarily driven by increases in the Vaccines portfolio including RSV for older adults, meningitis and mRNA. Specialty Medicines investment decreased with reductions in the late-stage Specialty Medicines portfolio partly offset by increased research investment as several early-stage assets progressed into Phase I.

轉向研發。 7% 的增長主要是由於疫苗產品組合的增加，包括針對老年人的 RSV、腦膜炎和 mRNA。隨著一些早期資產進入 I 期，後期專業藥物投資組合的減少部分抵消了專業藥物投資的減少，部分抵消了研究投資的增加。

Royalties benefited from higher sales of GARDASIL along with the first contribution of royalty income from the GARDASIL segment which started in February. For the group, excluding Consumer Healthcare, adjusted operating profit was GBP 2 billion, up 44%; and the adjusted operating [margin was] 27.5%. The benefit from pandemic sales contributed approximately 15 percentage points of growth to adjusted operating profit and reduced -- operating profit growth, sorry, and reduced the adjusted operating margin by approximately 2.5 percentage points.

特許權使用費受益於 GARDASIL 銷售額的增加，以及 GARDASIL 部門於 2 月開始的特許權使用費收入的首次貢獻。對於該集團，不包括消費者保健，調整後的營業利潤為 20 億英鎊，增長 44%；調整後的運營 [利潤率] 為 27.5%。大流行銷售帶來的收益為調整後的營業利潤貢獻了約 15 個百分點的增長，並降低了營業利潤增長，抱歉，並將調整後的營業利潤率降低了約 2.5 個百分點。

Overall, our margin progression is shaping up well as we execute against the plan we set out in June of last year. We do expect some quarterly variation in light of the 2021 phasing but fully expect 2022 to deliver improvement on last year and represent a positive step towards our 2026 targets.

總體而言，隨著我們執行去年 6 月制定的計劃，我們的利潤率進展良好。鑑於 2021 年的分階段，我們確實預計會有一些季度變化，但完全預計 2022 年將比去年有所改善，並代表我們朝著 2026 年的目標邁出了積極的一步。

Turning now to Slide 20. Moving to the bottom half of the P&L, I'd highlight that interest expense was GBP 202 million, slightly higher due to adverse movements in foreign exchange and newly issued Haleon bond debt and that the effective tax rate of 17.9% was aligned with expectations for the group.

現在轉到幻燈片 20。轉到損益表的下半部分，我要強調的是利息支出為 2.02 億英鎊，由於外彙和新發行的 Haleon 債券債務的不利變動以及 17.9 的有效稅率而略高% 與該組的預期一致。

On the next slide, I'll cover cash flow. In Q1, we delivered GBP 1.7 billion of free cash flow and cash generated from operations of GBP 2.8 billion. The key drivers of higher free cash flow are as follows: significant increase in operating profit including the upfront income from the Gilead settlement; favorable timing of collections and profit share payments for Xevudy sales, though note, we expect to see an opposite impact in Q2; and lower seasonal increases in inventory.

在下一張幻燈片中，我將介紹現金流。第一季度，我們交付了 17 億英鎊的自由現金流和 28 億英鎊的運營產生的現金。自由現金流增加的主要驅動因素如下：營業利潤顯著增加，包括吉利德結算的預付款收入； Xevudy 銷售的收款和利潤分成支付的有利時機，但請注意，我們預計在第二季度會產生相反的影響；以及較低的季節性庫存增長。

These factors were partly offset by lower proceeds from disposals and higher purchases of intangible assets, primarily Alector and Arrowhead as well as higher tax payments and capital expenditure. We still expect to share comparators for new GSK cash flow around the middle of the year.

這些因素部分被處置收益減少和無形資產購買增加（主要是 Alector 和 Arrowhead）以及稅收和資本支出增加所抵消。我們仍然希望在今年年中左右分享新 GSK 現金流的比較對象。

Turning now to guidance on Slide 22. Today, we're reconfirming our GSK guidance for 2022. Excluding COVID Solutions, we still expect to see GSK sales growth of between 5% to 7% and adjusted operating profit growth of 12% to 14%, which continues to be predicated on the Consumer Healthcare business being demerged in July. Our expectations for COVID solutions also remain unchanged with the overwhelming majority of sales delivered in Q1. We are assessing demand for the remainder of the year in light of the U.S. FDA change to the emergency use authorization for Xevudy.

現在轉到幻燈片 22 的指導。今天，我們再次確認 GSK 2022 年的指導。不包括 COVID 解決方案，我們仍然預計 GSK 的銷售額增長 5% 至 7%，調整後的營業利潤增長 12% 至 14% ，這繼續基於 7 月份拆分的消費者保健業務。我們對 COVID 解決方案的期望也保持不變，因為絕大多數銷售額在第一季度交付。鑑於美國 FDA 對 Xevudy 的緊急使用授權的變更，我們正在評估今年剩餘時間的需求。

We've delivered a very strong start to this fiscal year, and I should share some of our considerations for the remainder of the year. We anticipated a stronger Q1 in light of the phasing of the pandemic impact in 2021. And there's also been some favorable phasing this quarter such as the timing of international tenders in HIV and in U.S. vaccines ordering patterns.

我們在本財年開局非常強勁，我應該分享我們對今年剩餘時間的一些考慮。鑑於 2021 年大流行影響的分階段，我們預計第一季度會更強勁。本季度也有一些有利的階段，例如 HIV 國際招標和美國疫苗訂購模式的時間安排。

In light of those Q1 dynamics and prior year performance, we expect quarter 2 and 3 to deliver lower sales growth with a favorable Q4 comparator also informing 2022 phasing. At the half year, we would expect to be slightly ahead of full year revenue guidance, with second half being more heavily influenced by Q4 given the 2021 second half comparators. On dividends, we've declared a 14p per share for the first quarter.

鑑於第一季度的動態和上一年的表現，我們預計第二季度和第三季度的銷售增長將有所放緩，而第四季度的比較數據也將對 2022 年的發展有所幫助。在半年，我們預計將略高於全年收入指引，考慮到 2021 年下半年的比較對象，下半年受第四季度的影響更大。關於股息，我們宣布第一季度每股派息 14 便士。

In summary, the strong start to the year and the momentum we have give us confidence in delivering our guidance while also delivering the separation into 2 new companies.

總而言之，今年的強勁開局和我們的勢頭讓我們有信心提供我們的指導，同時也將拆分為 2 家新公司。

And with that, operator, we'll now move to Q&A. Thank you.

有了這個，接線員，我們現在將進入問答環節。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) We already received a few questions, and the first one is coming from the line of Graham Parry from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們已經收到了一些問題，第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Graham Parry。

So I just wanted to follow up on Shingrix, and if you could just quantify the benefit of inventory movements in the U.S. as the retail channel restocked and where inventory levels were at the start of Q2. Could we see any unwind there in Q2? And then ex U.S., is there any bolus effect in Q1 or expected through the rest of the year as new launch markets come online?

所以我只想跟進 Shingrix，如果你能量化美國庫存變動的好處，因為零售渠道重新進貨，庫存水平處於第二季度初。我們能在第二季度看到任何放鬆嗎？然後除美國外，隨著新的發射市場上線，第一季度或預計今年剩餘時間會產生任何推注效應嗎？

And then secondly, one for Brian on Consumer. The inflation impact on input costs that you're seeing and any potential wage inflation going forward, could that impact on your margin expectation at all? And could cost of living, affordability issues start to see consumers downgrade from the premium brands in OTC and oral that GSK sales and go more towards cheaper generic or store brands?

其次，Brian on Consumer。通貨膨脹對您所看到的投入成本的影響以及任何潛在的工資通貨膨脹，這是否會影響您的利潤率預期？生活成本、負擔能力問題是否會開始讓消費者從 OTC 和口服 GSK 銷售的優質品牌降級，並更多地轉向更便宜的仿製藥或商店品牌？

Thanks, Graham. Well, the causatives are an important occasion for us, so I'm going to offer the first question there with great pleasure to Brian to answer. And then we'll go back come back to Iain to give a bit more detail on the Shingrix phasing. I think you already made some comments, but you might want to add.

謝謝，格雷厄姆。好吧，使役對我們來說是一個重要的場合，所以我將非常高興地提出第一個問題，讓布賴恩回答。然後我們會回到伊恩，提供更多關於 Shingrix 相位的細節。我認為您已經發表了一些評論，但您可能還想補充。

Thanks for the question, Graham, to the question on inflation impact and input costs. I think as I laid out at Capital Markets Day, we are exposed to the same inflation costs that many of our consumer peers are seeing, but we are less exposed structurally. So if you look at the commodity and commodity-related costs, it's less than 10% of our overall sales.

格雷厄姆，感謝您提出有關通貨膨脹影響和投入成本的問題。我認為正如我在資本市場日所說的那樣，我們面臨著與許多消費者同行所看到的相同的通脹成本，但我們在結構上的風險較小。所以如果你看看商品和商品相關的成本，它不到我們總銷售額的 10%。

So we're seeing those cost increases, but I feel really good about our margin delivery in Q1. And the margin delivery was driven by a combination of the continued delivery of the Pfizer synergies along with operating leverage behind the [strong sales] growth.

所以我們看到了這些成本的增加，但我對第一季度的保證金交付感到非常滿意。保證金交付是由輝瑞協同效應的持續交付以及[強勁銷售]增長背後的運營槓桿共同推動的。

Now it's also just important to note as you look at that, operating delivery, margin delivery in Q1, we are yet to see the full standing up of the Haleon costs we shared at Capital Markets Day of GBP 175 million to GBP 200 million. They haven't ramped up yet in Q1.

現在，同樣重要的是要注意，當你看到第一季度的運營交付、保證金交付時，我們還沒有看到我們在資本市場日分攤的 1.75 億英鎊至 2 億英鎊的 Haleon 成本的完全站穩腳跟。他們在第一季度還沒有增加。

And so for the outlook on the year, nothing has changed from the margin building blocks we provided for 2022, we laid out at Capital Markets Day and in our medium-term guidance of moderate margin expansion. And we're just -- we're managing all the other costs. And as we said, we manage it with a combination of efficiencies in the business and with pricing.

因此，對於今年的展望，我們為 2022 年提供的利潤率構建塊沒有任何變化，我們在資本市場日和我們的適度利潤率擴張的中期指導中提出。我們只是 - 我們正在管理所有其他成本。正如我們所說，我們通過結合業務效率和定價來管理它。

Your question on consumer behavior, I have to say today, we have not seen consumer behavior impacted in demand, and you see that in the strong volume growth that we had in Q1. We're being -- we're staying very close to this, and we're seeing how consumer behavior shift. It's also why we're very focused and conscious of where and how we take pricing across the business to make sure that we don't get ahead of that consumer behavior.

你關於消費者行為的問題，我今天不得不說，我們沒有看到消費者行為受到需求的影響，你看到我們在第一季度的強勁銷量增長中看到了這一點。我們正在 - 我們非常接近這一點，我們正在看到消費者行為如何轉變。這也是為什麼我們非常專注並意識到我們在整個業務中的定價位置和方式，以確保我們不會領先於消費者行為。

The other piece is, listen, we're in everyday health, we're in consumer health care, and these products matter. And products like Sensodyne provide a real benefit to consumers. So while premium, we tend to see consumers sticking with those products that really matter.

另一部分是，聽著，我們處於日常健康中，我們處於消費者保健中，這些產品很重要。像 Sensodyne 這樣的產品為消費者帶來了真正的好處。因此，雖然優質，但我們傾向於看到消費者堅持使用那些真正重要的產品。

Right. Iain, 11% volume growth in Consumer in the quarter is really strong underlying -- Iain, on Shingrix?

正確的。伊恩，本季度消費者業務量增長 11% 確實很強勁——伊恩，在 Shingrix 上？

Yes. Brilliant. Thanks, Brian. Since its your last quarter, do you want to take the question on Shingrix as well?

是的。傑出的。謝謝，布萊恩。既然是你的最後一個季度，你是否也想回答關於 Shingrix 的問題？

I'd love to, Iain. Thank you very much.

我很樂意，伊恩。非常感謝。

So Graham, thanks for your question. So look, a couple of comments I made during the presentation. We saw about 4 percentage points of our 15% ex pandemic growth in Commercial Ops coming in Shingrix in terms of the U.S. phasing and in terms of the underlying demand recovery from patients, which is incredibly encouraging, something of which we're confident, but nonetheless, encouraging to see.

格雷厄姆，謝謝你的問題。所以看，我在演示過程中發表的一些評論。就美國分階段和患者的潛在需求復蘇而言，我們看到商業運營 15% 的大流行前增長中約有 4 個百分點來自 Shingrix，這是令人難以置信的鼓舞，我們對此充滿信心，但儘管如此，令人鼓舞的是。

But in terms of the channel build and that phasing, if you look at inventories at the end of the first quarter, inventories sitting around 1.2 million doses, it was around 1.1 million doses at the end of the fourth quarter. So it really was very much about just building that demand that we saw coming through in the first quarter, so confident in that.

但就渠道建設和分階段而言，如果你看一下第一季度末的庫存，庫存約為 120 萬劑，第四季度末約為 110 萬劑。因此，這真的非常重要的是建立我們在第一季度看到的需求，對此充滿信心。

In terms of looking at how we see the contribution from geographic expansion, it will build as the year goes on. But when you look at markets that make the real difference at this point in time, it's that continued underlying demand, strong demand coming from the U.S. But also our German market in Europe plays a very important contribution now to overall Shingrix performance.

就我們如何看待地域擴張的貢獻而言，它將隨著時間的推移而增加。但是，當你看看此時此刻真正發揮作用的市場時，那就是持續的潛在需求，來自美國的強勁需求，而且我們在歐洲的德國市場現在對 Shingrix 的整體表現也做出了非常重要的貢獻。

So I think I just build on some of the comments that Luke made in that regard that as we continue to expand on the back of unconstrained supply, we will see the contribution build, but key markets certainly in the current year, we'd expect to continue to be in the U.S. and Germany to a somewhat lesser extent.

所以我想我只是基於盧克在這方面發表的一些評論，即隨著我們在不受限制的供應的支持下繼續擴張，我們將看到貢獻增加，但關鍵市場肯定在今年，我們預計在較小程度上繼續在美國和德國。

Thanks. Luke, anything you want to add at all in terms of the consumer demand dynamic?

謝謝。 Luke，關於消費者需求動態，你有什麼想補充的嗎？

Yes. I think there's probably a bit of color there. I mean I think just to build on Iain's point, I mean, Q1 2021 was 0.7 million doses, and Q4 2020 was 0.8 million doses. So I think if we've learned one thing about the pandemic is retail pharmacy chains in the U.S. has a pretty good judging command of Shingrix. As Iain said, there was a large order from the pharmacy chain in the U.S., and we'll unwind that in Q2. But they ordered it because they think they can sell it.

是的。我認為那裡可能有一點顏色。我的意思是，我認為只是基於伊恩的觀點，我的意思是，2021 年第一季度為 70 萬劑，2020 年第四季度為 80 萬劑。因此，我認為，如果我們了解到有關這種流行病的一件事，那就是美國的零售連鎖藥店對 Shingrix 有很好的判斷力。正如伊恩所說，美國藥房連鎖店有大量訂單，我們將在第二季度取消。但是他們訂購它是因為他們認為他們可以賣掉它。

On the demand side, to Emma's point, I mean the good thing is that the DTC that we've got is breaking through. Our target segments, we can see increased urgency and interest. Also, when we look at physicians, 9 out of 10 of them are willing -- very willing to prescribe the product in 60-plus years. And that's actually jumped 10% in the 60 to 64 group. That's also moving up in the 50 to 60 group as well.

在需求方面，就艾瑪而言，我的意思是好事是我們所擁有的 DTC 正在突破。我們的目標細分市場，我們可以看到增加的緊迫性和興趣。此外，當我們觀察醫生時，他們中有十分之九願意——非常願意在 60 多年後開出該產品的處方。而在 60 至 64 歲的人群中，這一數字實際上上升了 10%。這也在 50 到 60 組中上升。

What's also encouraging -- but again, we're not out of the woods yet, and I'll explain why in a second. We ran a survey with pharmacists where we asked them to allocate 100 points in terms of their enthusiasm to recommend vaccines to patients. So at the end of last year, they allocated 56 points to COVID-19, 10 to shingles, 8 to pneumo, 21 to flu. So there's some seasonal there. If you look at February, they allocate 39 to COVID, 23 to shingles and Shingrix, 17 to pneumococcal vaccines and 8 to flu. So that's certainly encouraging in terms of them moving it up.

同樣令人鼓舞的是——但同樣，我們還沒有走出困境，我稍後會解釋原因。我們對藥劑師進行了一項調查，要求他們根據向患者推薦疫苗的熱情程度分配 100 分。所以在去年年底，他們將 56 分分配給 COVID-19，10 分分配給帶狀皰疹，8 分分配給肺炎，21 分分配給流感。所以那裡有一些季節性。如果你看一下 2 月，他們將 39 個分配給 COVID，23 個分配給帶狀皰疹和 Shingrix，17 個分配給肺炎球菌疫苗，8 個分配給流感。因此，就他們向上移動而言，這肯定是令人鼓舞的。

And then when you ask them specifically on Shingrix, you're more willing to use the product, they've gone from 44% extremely willing at the end of last year to 56%. So there's a real strengthening in terms of their enthusiasm for it. And we're now starting to see that in the Rx trend. So 42 out of 50 states we have more Rx, TRxs than the same time last year. And out of those 42, 36 are more than 10% up, and 10 of the 42 is more than 50% up. And about half those TRxs is the first dose, which if we look at this time last year, it was about 1/3, 35%.

然後當你在 Shingrix 上專門詢問他們時，你更願意使用該產品，他們已經從去年年底的 44% 非常願意使用該產品到 56%。因此，他們對它的熱情得到了真正的加強。我們現在開始在 Rx 趨勢中看到這一點。因此，在 50 個州中，有 42 個州的 Rx、TRx 比去年同期多。在這 42 個中，有 36 個漲幅超過 10%，42 個中有 10 個漲幅超過 50%。大約一半的 TRx 是第一劑，如果我們看看去年的這個時候，大約是 1/3，即 35%。

And this is why we're not out of woods yet, we've seen COVID cases going up in the last 2 weeks in the majority of states. In the U.S., we've got 2 new subvariants, BA.2. And that's jumping in the Northeast and Midwest. And you've also seen the Biden administration approving boosters for the 50-plus population.

這就是為什麼我們還沒有走出困境，我們已經看到過去 2 週內大多數州的 COVID 病例都在上升。在美國，我們有 2 個新的子變體，BA.2。這在東北部和中西部跳躍。你也看到拜登政府批准了 50 多歲人口的助推器。

And then the other thing that we're watching very closely when we survey pharmacists, 45% of them said they have a very, very hard time hiring technicians and keeping them, and 40% say it's very different. And this is our #1 reason for people not going through the shop. It's just the availability of staff. So as Emma said, and as Iain has said, look, there's good underlying trends, but we just need to watch, and that's why we're not changing that now.

然後，當我們調查藥劑師時，我們正在密切關注的另一件事是，45% 的藥劑師表示他們很難聘請和留住技術人員，而 40% 的藥劑師表示情況非常不同。這是我們讓人們不去商店的第一大原因。這只是工作人員的可用性。正如艾瑪所說，正如伊恩所說，看，有很好的潛在趨勢，但我們只需要觀察，這就是為什麼我們現在不改變它。

There's probably one other detail to add because I suspect we'll get this question later. So when you look at the volume through the retail chain versus through the health care provider's office, the practitioner's office, if you think about the third quarter of 2021, we saw 47% going through retail, 53% through the practitioner's office. At the end of the first quarter or for the first quarter, we've seen that start moving back to the more historical pre COVID trend that we've seen for Shingrix with about 56% going through the retail chain and 44% going through practitioners' office.

可能還有其他細節要添加，因為我懷疑我們稍後會收到這個問題。因此，當您通過零售連鎖店與通過醫療保健提供者辦公室、從業者辦公室查看數量時，如果您考慮 2021 年第三季度，我們看到 47% 通過零售，53% 通過從業者辦公室。在第一季度末或第一季度，我們已經看到開始回到我們為 Shingrix 看到的更具歷史意義的 COVID 前趨勢，其中約 56% 通過零售鏈，44% 通過從業者' 辦公室。

And so that, again, I think it plays to exactly the survey data that Luke mentioned. So it's encouraging to see that as well, but just keeping a very close eye on how we see the ability of those retail chains to administer when we see competing forces coming through.

因此，我認為它與 Luke 提到的調查數據完全吻合。因此，看到這一點也令人鼓舞，但只要密切關注我們如何看待這些零售連鎖店在我們看到競爭力量出現時的管理能力。

Great. Well, we'll move on to the next question. We just know that, that is a really key one. And as you can hear, there's a lot of vigilance, agility, and optimism remains for this great asset for us before the next one comes. Next question, please.

偉大的。好吧，我們將繼續下一個問題。我們只知道，這是一個非常關鍵的問題。正如您所聽到的那樣，在下一個資產到來之前，我們對這一巨大資產保持高度警惕、敏捷和樂觀。請下一個問題。

Our next question is coming from the line of James Gordon from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的詹姆斯戈登。

James Gordon from JPMorgan. Two questions, both pipeline, please. First one is on Vaccines. So older adult RSV Phase III readout approaches. My question is latest thoughts on the competitive positioning and 2 bits within that. One about dose frequency, is annual vaccination now the base case in which the adjuvant may not make a big difference in terms of allowing multiyear dose intervals? So how you're thinking about that. And also just competitive delays of whether that's a big boost for you. I've seen Pfizer significantly enlarge their trial enrollment, means that they're going to report this quarter. And I saw J&J have started the trial with what looks to be a new viral vector maybe due to blood clot safety concerns. So might you be the only one that applies to ACIP next year? So how are you thinking about that?

摩根大通的詹姆斯戈登。兩個問題，兩個管道，請。第一個是疫苗。因此，年長的成人 RSV III 期讀數接近。我的問題是關於競爭定位的最新想法以及其中的 2 位。關於劑量頻率，現在每年接種疫苗是否是佐劑在允許多年劑量間隔方面可能不會產生重大影響的基本情況？那麼你是怎麼想的。還有競爭性的延遲，看看這是否對你有很大的推動作用。我看到輝瑞公司顯著擴大了他們的試驗註冊，這意味著他們將在本季度發布報告。我看到 J&J 已經開始使用一種看起來像是新病毒載體的試驗，這可能是出於對血栓安全性的擔憂。那麼你可能是明年唯一申請 ACIP 的人嗎？那你怎麼想的？

And then the other question was about pipeline in oncology. So the Sierra deal, which looks like an attractive option for Jakafi refractory patients. But I know there are quite a few other mechanisms out there in late-stage development like BETs and BCL2. How are you thinking it's going to stack up in refractory? Is it like one big segment you've identified that you're going to go for, how we should segment the market? And longer term, is this just a refractory product? Or do you think you might be able to combine this with some of the other mechanisms, and it could be a frontline product as well?

然後另一個問題是關於腫瘤學的管道。因此，與 Sierra 的交易看起來對 Jakafi 難治性患者來說是一個有吸引力的選擇。但我知道在後期開發中還有很多其他機制，例如 BET 和 BCL2。你怎麼認為它會堆積在耐火材料中？它是否就像您確定要追求的一個大細分市場，我們應該如何細分市場？從長遠來看，這只是一種難處理的產品嗎？或者你認為你可以將它與其他一些機制結合起來，它也可以成為一線產品嗎？

Okay. Well, look, we'll come to Hal in a moment both in terms of the trials. I mean, we already confirmed our expectations to have those results on that and then your comments on oncology. But first of all, perhaps, Roger, you could comment on our overall sort of ambitions and confidence in older adults and any further reflections on questions like dose frequency...

好的。好吧，看，我們稍後會在試驗方面談到哈爾。我的意思是，我們已經確認了我們對獲得這些結果的期望，然後是您對腫瘤學的評論。但首先，也許，羅傑，你可以評論一下我們對老年人的總體抱負和信心，以及對劑量頻率等問題的任何進一步思考……

Jim, thanks very much for the question. Obviously, we (inaudible) see the data from our RSV adult trials. Exciting time within vaccines. Obviously, the disease burden and the world is waiting for a vaccine in this space and the medicine, the hospitalization burden that exists.

吉姆，非常感謝你提出這個問題。顯然，我們（聽不清）看到了我們的 RSV 成人試驗的數據。疫苗中激動人心的時刻。顯然，疾病負擔和世界正在等待這個空間的疫苗和藥物，存在的住院負擔。

One thing to understand about that hospitalization is that the greatest burden comes from people that suffer from comorbidities in the older adult population. I mention that because when you look at our unique technology platform, which is the adjuvant combined with the antigen, we believe that's where we could see some differentiation in terms of performance.

關於住院治療需要了解的一件事是，最大的負擔來自老年人群中患有合併症的人。我提到這一點是因為當您查看我們獨特的技術平台時，即佐劑與抗原相結合，我們相信我們可以在性能方面看到一些差異。

We've seen this in Shingrix. We know this platform well. We know that there's an opportunity to perform and create a higher efficacy in that older adult population and also in that at-risk group, the comorbidity group within older adult as well. So we'll have to see the data, but that's where we really believe that we can make a difference.

我們已經在 Shingrix 中看到了這一點。我們很了解這個平台。我們知道，有機會在老年人口以及高危人群、老年人中的合併症人群中發揮和創造更高的療效。所以我們必須看到數據，但這是我們真正相信我們可以有所作為的地方。

I think it builds off the Phase II data. That's why we're confident, where you see our Phase II in terms of neutralizing antibody increase. But also the impact on T cells, which, again, our belief is that, that has not linked to severe disease outcomes. We believe that's the potential differentiation as well.

我認為它建立在第二階段的數據之上。這就是我們有信心的原因，您可以在中和抗體增加方面看到我們的 II 期。還有對 T 細胞的影響，我們再次相信，這與嚴重的疾病結果無關。我們認為這也是潛在的差異化。

In terms of adjuvant and duration of protection, we think the biggest goal that we have at the start is to protect the whole year and ensure that we cover the season. That's going to be important. And then we'll obviously continue to monitor and see whether there is a duration of protection benefit greater or more than that season, and the trial is designed to monitor that as well. But we'll see that over time.

在輔助和保護期限上，我們認為一開始最大的目標是保護全年，確保覆蓋整個賽季。這將很重要。然後我們顯然會繼續監測，看看是否有比那個季節更長或更長的保護利益持續時間，試驗也旨在監測這一點。但隨著時間的推移，我們會看到這一點。

I think that's important. What I would emphasize is that we are getting ready for this launch and investing to be ready as well, not just from a commercial perspective with Luke, but also from a manufacturing perspective also to make sure that we are ready for what could be a differentiated vaccine. And we're on track to see that data in the first half of this year.

我認為這很重要。我要強調的是，我們正在為此次發布和投資做好準備，不僅是從商業角度與 Luke 合作，而且從製造角度來看，也是為了確保我們已準備好迎接差異化疫苗。我們有望在今年上半年看到這些數據。

Right. Thanks. So Hal, do you want to pick up any further comments on that and then also on CRO?

正確的。謝謝。那麼哈爾，你想就此以及 CRO 發表任何進一步的評論嗎？

Yes. No, I think Roger hit all the points there, so nothing to add unless, James, you have additional thoughts on that question. So momelotinib, I think it's a very exciting molecule for a very significant unmet medical need. I think the question you specifically asked about BET and BCL2, other concomitant meds, I think it's important to really highlight what Luke said and why we're so excited about that molecule.

是的。不，我認為 Roger 說到了所有要點，所以沒有什麼可補充的，除非 James，你對這個問題有其他想法。所以 momelotinib，我認為它是一個非常令人興奮的分子，可以滿足非常重要的未滿足的醫療需求。我認為你特別詢問的關於 BET 和 BCL2 以及其他伴隨藥物的問題，我認為真正強調 Luke 所說的話以及我們為什麼對這種分子如此興奮是很重要的。

What Sierra Oncology was able to do based on some pretty interesting preclinical data showing that not only is this a very effective JAK1/2 inhibitor, but it has a unique property that will, I think, differentiate it amongst other therapies for myelofibrosis. And that is its inhibition of the so-called ACVR1 or ALK2, the Activin-like receptor 2 kinase. And the science behind that is that by blocking that receptor, you're reducing hepcidin levels, which are involved in iron storage in the liver.

基於一些非常有趣的臨床前數據，Sierra Oncology 能夠做的事情表明，這不僅是一種非常有效的 JAK1/2 抑製劑，而且我認為，它具有獨特的特性，可以將其與其他骨髓纖維化療法區分開來。這就是它對所謂的 ACVR1 或 ALK2（激活素樣受體 2 激酶）的抑製作用。而這背後的科學是，通過阻斷該受體，您可以降低鐵調素水平，而鐵調素與肝臟中的鐵儲存有關。

And as you know and has been highlighted, anemia, not only because of the disease but also because of JAK1/2 inhibition which occurs with Jakafi, this sort of unique aspect of its mechanism, both a JAK1/2 inhibitor plus this ALK2, provides a very unique and differentiated profile. So it will likely be differentiated amongst all JAK inhibitors and possibly the drug of choice to combine with other things. And so we're looking forward to seeing its life cycle management in the future.

正如你所知並已被強調的那樣，貧血，不僅是因為疾病，還因為 Jakafi 發生的 JAK1/2 抑制，其機制的這種獨特方面，既是 JAK1/2 抑製劑又是 ALK2，提供一個非常獨特和差異化的形象。因此，它可能會在所有 JAK 抑製劑中有所區別，並且可能是與其他藥物結合的首選藥物。因此，我們期待在未來看到它的生命週期管理。

Right. Thanks, Hal. Next question, please.

正確的。謝謝，哈爾。請下一個問題。

The next question is coming from Laura Sutcliffe from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Laura Sutcliffe。

Just a follow-up to James' question on the RSV vaccine, please. You've obviously mentioned that you might be able to get the data to an ACIP meeting mid next year. But how do you think ACIP is going to handle a discussion around how often your product should be given if you don't have much data on that at the time, and I think the relevant part of your trial will still be underway? It just seems unlikely they can make a recommendation without actually saying when you should have it.

請跟進 James 關於 RSV 疫苗的問題。您顯然已經提到您可能能夠在明年年中將數據提交給 ACIP 會議。但是，如果您當時沒有太多相關數據，您認為 ACIP 將如何處理圍繞您的產品應該多久提供一次的討論，而且我認為您的試驗的相關部分仍在進行中？他們似乎不太可能在不實際說明您應該何時接受的情況下提出建議。

And then secondly, on Consumer, you mentioned pain relief benefiting from Omicron in the quarter. That doesn't sound sustainable, so perhaps just your view on the evolution of that sales line for the rest of the year.

其次，在消費者方面，您提到了本季度 Omicron 帶來的疼痛緩解。這聽起來不可持續，所以也許只是你對今年剩餘時間該銷售線演變的看法。

Thanks. Brian, do you want to pick up on pain relief. And then, Hal, any further comments on pain management?

謝謝。布賴恩，你想了解止痛藥嗎？然後，Hal，關於疼痛管理的任何進一步評論？

Yes. Great. So thanks for the question. So Omicron impacts our business in 2 ways. First, the Omicron systems are consistent with cold and flu, so that drove the growth in the cold and flu category that you saw. And as you know, the cold and flu category grew significantly versus 2021 when we had very little cold and flu, but this year was also above 2019 levels.

是的。偉大的。所以謝謝你的問題。因此，Omicron 以兩種方式影響我們的業務。首先，Omicron 系統與感冒和流感一致，因此推動了您所看到的感冒和流感類別的增長。如您所知，與 2021 年相比，感冒和流感類別顯著增長，當時我們幾乎沒有感冒和流感，但今年也高於 2019 年的水平。

Second, in times of higher cold and flu instances, we also see increased demand of systemic pain relief, especially brands like Panadol, which treat fever and symptoms. And Panadol specifically had a very strong Q1 both from treating those cold and flu systems -- symptoms but also behind our [Take Care] campaign, which help people understand how Panadol could safely alleviate symptoms post-vaccination.

其次，在感冒和流感發病率較高的時期，我們也看到對緩解全身疼痛的需求增加，尤其是治療發燒和症狀的 Panadol 等品牌。 Panadol 特別具有非常強大的 Q1，既可以治療感冒和流感系統——症狀，也可以幫助人們了解 Panadol 如何安全地緩解疫苗接種後的症狀。

Now unlike the beginning of 2020, where we saw a huge demand from COVID that was pantry loading, this is real consumption. So consumers are buying the product and they're using the product. So I just think about it as it was a strong cold and flu season, and we'll be lapping strong -- that's an extension of what happened in Q4 and continued on. So that's how I would think about it. But I feel really good about the growth of both our respiratory and pain relief in the context of that market because I feel we were very competitive in our growth rates.

現在與 2020 年初不同，當時我們看到食品儲藏室裝載的 COVID 的巨大需求，這是真實的消費。因此，消費者購買產品並使用產品。所以我只是考慮它，因為這是一個強烈的感冒和流感季節，我們會表現得很好——這是第四季度發生的事情的延伸，並繼續下去。所以這就是我的想法。但在那個市場的背景下，我對我們的呼吸和止痛藥的增長感到非常滿意，因為我覺得我們的增長率非常有競爭力。

Great. Hal, any brief comments on ACIP? Obviously, the work lies ahead but...

偉大的。哈爾，對 ACIP 有什麼簡短的評論嗎？顯然，工作就在前面，但是……

Yes. I think the key thing is that, of course, we will be looking at whether this vaccine can be seen as super seasonal by the duration of protection, which we have ongoing pivotal data that will assess its efficacy over not just this 1-year time period where we'll obviously have data for ACIP, but to your point, over the ensuing years, and we have studied up to 3 years that are looking at the impact of this. So we will be able to generate the data.

是的。我認為關鍵是，當然，我們將研究這種疫苗是否可以通過保護持續時間被視為超級季節性，我們有持續的關鍵數據，將評估其有效性，而不僅僅是這 1 年的時間這段時間我們顯然會有 ACIP 的數據，但就你的觀點而言，在接下來的幾年裡，我們研究了長達 3 年的時間來研究其影響。所以我們將能夠生成數據。

I think it is important to also note that the duration of efficacy during a season can give some hints as to whether one might be able to see a super seasonal effect. But to your specific question, with one season's worth of data, that's what we'll have at ACIP.

我認為還需要注意的是，一個季節中的功效持續時間可以提供一些關於是否能夠看到超級季節性效果的提示。但對於你的具體問題，有了一個賽季的數據，這就是我們在 ACIP 所擁有的。

Great. Thanks. Next question, please.

偉大的。謝謝。請下一個問題。

The next question is coming from the line of Simon Mather from BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Simon Mather。

I've got 2 questions, I'll follow suit, one for Brian and then one pharma. Just in terms of OTC, could you maybe help us understand, you discussed stocking in the first quarter, should we expect that to unwind in Q2? And kind of related, and please excuse my ignorance, but when you transition from the orange GSK emblem to a green Haleon, should we expect that to have an impact on revenues at all? Or is that just purely academic?

我有 2 個問題，我會照做，一個是針對 Brian，然後是一個製藥公司。就場外交易而言，您能否幫助我們理解，您在第一季度討論了庫存，我們是否應該期望在第二季度解除庫存？有點相關，請原諒我的無知，但是當你從橙色的 GSK 標誌過渡到綠色的 Haleon 時，我們是否應該期望這會對收入產生影響？或者這只是純粹的學術？

And then secondly, on pharma, one for Luke, really, just on oncology. Talking about obviously impacts of COVID-19, I guess we have similar impacts in the prior year period. I'm just thinking what -- excuse the noise. I'm just wondering what potentially we could -- when we could see an inflection there. Any data points because, obviously, your guidance is for, I think, GBP 7 billion peak sales and -- excuse the noise. Just whether or not we're going to get an interim readout with the GSI that could potentially give us more visibility on Blenrep.

其次，關於製藥，盧克，真的，只是關於腫瘤學。談到 COVID-19 的明顯影響，我想我們在前一年也有類似的影響。我只是在想 - 請原諒噪音。我只是想知道我們能做什麼——什麼時候我們能看到那裡的拐點。任何數據點，因為很明顯，我認為你的指導是針對 70 億英鎊的銷售高峰期的——請原諒噪音。只是我們是否要通過 GSI 獲得臨時讀數，這可能會讓我們對 Blenrep 有更多的了解。

Thanks. You cut in and out a little bit. So I'll ask Brian, first of all, to comment on your stocking and technical question. By the way, obviously, philosophically, the concept of the demerger is to unlock tremendous growth for 2 new companies, so I'll give you that. But I'll let Brian talk about it.

謝謝。你切入和切出一點點。因此，我首先請 Brian 就您的庫存和技術問題發表評論。順便說一句，顯然，從哲學上講，分拆的概念是為兩家新公司釋放巨大的增長，所以我會給你。但我會讓布賴恩談談。

And then I think you were talking about oncology in the second question. It cut out for me a bit. But in which case, perhaps we can ask Luke briefly to talk about commercial performance and Hal briefly on the emerging oncology pipeline. It's an emerging business for us. Numbers you referred to are obviously on a non-risk-adjusted basis, but we do have some exciting prospects coming through. But Brian first.

然後我認為你在第二個問題中談論的是腫瘤學。這對我來說有點不合適。但在這種情況下，也許我們可以請 Luke 簡要談談商業表現，讓 Hal 簡要談談新興的腫瘤管道。這對我們來說是一項新興業務。你提到的數字顯然是在未經風險調整的基礎上，但我們確實有一些令人興奮的前景。但首先是布賴恩。

Yes. Thanks for the question. First, on your question on stocking in the quarter. So 1 thing will not repeat and will come out of quarter 2, which is the forward buy from the system cutover. So purely 2 points of growth that would have happened in Q2 came into Q1, so we'll see that unwind in Q2.

是的。謝謝你的問題。首先，關於你關於本季度庫存的問題。所以一件事不會重複，並且會在第二季度出現，這是系統轉換的遠期購買。因此，在第二季度發生的純 2 點增長進入了第一季度，因此我們將在第二季度看到這種增長。

The other comments on inventory stocking patterns are, honestly, the strong demand ending last year, meant inventory levels were a bit lower at the beginning of the year, so those inventories are now up. So that's not something that would necessarily unwind as we look at the -- as the year goes on. But certainly next year in Q1, we have that inventory build that happened. But it's just normal kind of stocking patterns given the high demand across the business.

老實說，關於庫存模式的其他評論是去年年底的強勁需求，意味著年初庫存水平略低，因此這些庫存現在增加了。因此，隨著時間的推移，這不一定會隨著我們的觀察而放鬆。但可以肯定的是，明年第一季度，我們就會建立庫存。但鑑於整個企業的高需求，這只是一種正常的庫存模式。

Your question about orange to green, by the way, I just want to say, I love the color orange, but I do like green better. There's really no impact. There's a slight difference in the parameter in the Haleon numbers. And what you'll see at Capital Markets Day, we shared the historical financial information under that parameter. And to be a (inaudible) and in the appendix of that presentation was a detailed list of what those changes are; very small, so it doesn't have a significant impact on the reporting, but the numbers move around just slightly.

順便說一下，你關於橙色到綠色的問題，我只想說，我喜歡橙色，但我更喜歡綠色。真的沒什麼影響Haleon 數中的參數略有不同。您將在資本市場日看到的是，我們在該參數下共享了歷史財務信息。成為一個（聽不清）並且在該演示文稿的附錄中詳細列出了這些更改的內容；非常小，所以它對報告沒有重大影響，但數字只是略有變動。

Okay. Great. Luke, do you want to talk about oncology momentum and then how long the pipeline is for GSI?

好的。偉大的。盧克，你想談談腫瘤學的發展勢頭，然後是 GSI 的管道有多長？

Sure. So I think I heard your question correctly. I'll just go through the products and then finish on Blenrep as a segue to how -- on the pipeline rate there. I mean I think with Zejula, we've shown you the 29% suppression. I think another set of numbers which are really illustrative of the challenge for the class actually is if you look at IQVIA U.S. path initiations across all lines, if you look at Q1 2020, it was 1,629. If you look at Q1 2021, it was 1,487. And the most recent figures we have with IQVIA Q4 '21, and they are 1,198. So those patients, sadly, those women are not presenting.

當然。所以我想我沒聽錯你的問題。我將只瀏覽產品，然後在 Blenrep 上結束，作為對那裡的管道速率的一個 segue。我的意思是我認為對於 Zejula，我們已經向您展示了 29% 的抑制。我認為另一組真正說明課程挑戰的數字實際上是，如果你看一下 IQVIA 美國所有線路的路徑啟動，如果你看一下 2020 年第一季度，它是 1,629。如果你看看 2021 年第一季度，它是 1,487。我們與 IQVIA Q4 '21 的最新數據是 1,198。所以那些患者，可悲的是，那些女性沒有出現。

They will present at some point. I frankly thought we would have seen a recovery by now just because of the underlying biology and the symptoms, but that's still lagging. So it's difficult to predict. And of course, then there's a debulking time frame, therefore they present for chemo and then maintenance therapy. So I think it's the second half of the year at the earliest.

他們會在某個時候出現。坦率地說，我認為我們現在會因為潛在的生物學和症狀而看到復蘇，但這仍然滯後。所以很難預測。當然，還有一個減瘤時間框架，因此他們會接受化療，然後進行維持治療。所以我覺得最快是下半年。

Look, on the encouraging side, though, with Zejula, when we do see those patients describe the PARP, we're able to match them 1:1 in terms of volumes there of scripts. So clearly, that's, I think, the sign that we are coming through in terms of the arguments there.

看，在令人鼓舞的一面，雖然，對於 Zejula，當我們確實看到那些患者描述 PARP 時，我們能夠在腳本的數量方面與他們 1：1 匹配。很明顯，我認為，就那裡的論點而言，這是我們正在經歷的跡象。

If you look at Jemperli, I think the RUBY first line readout in the second half of the year is quite exciting and Hal will cover the CD96 potential of the combination. Clearly, we've done momelotinib. I think to build on Hal's answer earlier, it's not just a refractory population. There is that second -- there is a first-line subgroup who are indicated for ruxolitinib but are precluded from that by NCCN guidelines because of the hemoglobin level. That's a natural group that ruxolitinib and fedratinib are challenged by.

如果你看 Jemperli，我認為下半年的 RUBY 一線讀出相當令人興奮，Hal 將覆蓋組合的 CD96 潛力。顯然，我們已經完成了 momelotinib。我認為要早些建立在 Hal 的回答之上，這不僅僅是難治性人群。第二個——有一個一線亞組適用於 ruxolitinib，但由於血紅蛋白水平而被 NCCN 指南排除在外。這是 ruxolitinib 和 fedratinib 受到挑戰的自然群體。

And if you look at the mechanisms which are being explored, they're really designed to drive efficacy in that first line rather than address the underlying anemia, which we know from our market research is highly concerning for physicians. So that's why we see the opportunity there in first and second line for momelotinib.

如果你看看正在探索的機制，它們實際上是為了提高第一線的療效而不是解決潛在的貧血，我們從市場研究中知道這對醫生來說是高度關注的。所以這就是為什麼我們看到莫美洛替尼在一線和二線的機會。

And then finally, with Blenrep, I mean -- and we said this on a couple of earnings calls, we've got to do a couple of things. We need to expand usage in the community. It's dominated by the academic center even though only about 1/3 of the volumes there. And to do that, ultimately, through partnering with Hal's organization, we need to resolve the keratopathy rates that we see through a combination of dosing level, sequencing and combinations, which Hal and the team are working on.

最後，我的意思是，對於 Blenrep——我們在幾次財報電話會議上都說過這一點，我們必須做幾件事。我們需要擴大社區的使用範圍。它以學術中心為主，儘管只有那裡的 1/3 左右。為此，最終，通過與 Hal 的組織合作，我們需要通過 Hal 和團隊正在研究的劑量水平、順序和組合的組合來解決我們看到的角膜病變率。

So Hal, I'll hand over to you for that part.

那麼哈爾，我會把那部分交給你。

Yes. Thanks. And just briefly, just to comment on the pipeline, as you know, a little less than 4 years ago, in 2018, when we made the commitment to specialty medicines, highlighting the oncology was an ideal area to get back into given its potential. We made a little lot of progress. I think at that time, we had a handful of things in the pipeline. The most advanced was in Phase I. Now we have 3 approved drugs, hopefully a fourth one soon with momelotinib.

是的。謝謝。簡而言之，只是評論一下管道，正如你所知，不到 4 年前，在 2018 年，當我們對專業藥物做出承諾時，強調腫瘤學是一個理想的回歸領域，因為它有潛力。我們取得了很大的進步。我想那時候，我們有一些事情正在籌備中。最先進的是在第一階段。現在我們有 3 種批准的藥物，希望很快會有第四種藥物與 momelotinib。

Just to briefly comment, our focus has been within oncology, on immuno-oncology and synthetic lethality of immuno-oncology. We now, with the PV rig entering the clinic this month, we have that CD96 TIGIT and dostarlimab for reagents that we think will combine very interestingly on the CD226 axis to potentially usher in this new era of immuno-oncology that is very exciting. Obviously, you have other reagents that are both in preclinical and in the clinic that will complement all 4 of those.

簡而言之，我們的重點是腫瘤學、免疫腫瘤學和免疫腫瘤學的合成致死率。現在，隨著 PV 鑽機本月進入臨床，我們擁有 CD96 TIGIT 和 dostarlimab 試劑，我們認為它們將非常有趣地結合在 CD226 軸上，有可能開創這個非常令人興奮的免疫腫瘤學新時代。顯然，您還有其他處於臨床前和臨床階段的試劑，可以補充所有這 4 種試劑。

In synthetic lethality, as Luke mentioned, Zejula, a fantastic drug with the PRIMA data. Really augmented by the Zai Labs PRIME data, really very encouraging, reinforcing its unique best-in-class characteristics. We have some life cycle management going there. And synthetically, we also have a very robust pipeline in research and one in the clinic, this Map2A inhibitor that we're doing with IDEYA for MTAP-deleted tumors. So really terrific progress. I won't say more about momelotinib.

在合成殺傷力方面，正如 Luke 提到的，Zejula 是一種具有 PRIMA 數據的神奇藥物。 Zai Labs PRIME 數據確實得到了增強，真的非常令人鼓舞，強化了其獨特的同類最佳特性。我們在那裡進行了一些生命週期管理。綜合而言，我們在研究和臨床中也有一個非常強大的管道，我們正在與 IDEYA 合作開發這種 Map2A 抑製劑，用於 MTAP 缺失的腫瘤。真是了不起的進步。我不會多說莫美羅替尼。

But getting back to BCMA, really pleased with its approval and the excitement in the clinic in the fourth and latter lines. We have the DREAMM-3 study that we'll read out in earlier lines; DREAMM-7 and 8, that is exploring whether it could be actually superior to VELCADE and Darzalex in 2 different studies, leveraging extending dosing intervals, altering the holding patterns and looking for synergy with pomalidomide in studies like ALGONQUIN where we saw some pretty significant response rates of greater than 90% when given with Pom/Dex.

但是回到 BCMA，對它的批准以及第四線和後面的診所的興奮感到非常高興。我們有 DREAMM-3 研究，我們將在前面幾行中宣讀； DREAMM-7 和 8，正在探索它在 2 項不同的研究中是否真的優於 VELCADE 和 Darzalex，利用延長給藥間隔，改變持有模式並在像 ALGONQUIN 這樣的研究中尋找與泊馬度胺的協同作用，我們看到了一些非常顯著的反應當與 Pom/Dex 一起使用時，有效率大於 90%。

And that, combined with, as you put in your question, the idea of using gamma secretase inhibition to increase expression of BCMA on the plasma cells to further optimize the regimen by reducing the dose, which hopefully will maintain efficacy and potentially reduce ocular toxin. We're going to have some preliminary data shared at ASCO with more advanced and mature data later in the year.

而且，正如您提出的問題，結合使用γ分泌酶抑制來增加 BCMA 在漿細胞上的表達以通過減少劑量進一步優化方案的想法，這有望保持療效並可能減少眼部毒素。今年晚些時候，我們將在 ASCO 上共享一些初步數據和更先進、更成熟的數據。

Thanks, Hal. We are going to -- because I know there's still a lot of questions waiting through, so we're going to run until 1:15. But let's take the next question first, please.

謝謝，哈爾。我們將——因為我知道還有很多問題等待解決，所以我們將一直持續到 1:15。但請讓我們先回答下一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the next question is coming from the line of Tim Anderson, Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Tim Anderson。

A couple of questions, please. On Shingrix, at maturity, so yours down the road, I'm wondering how you expect sales will split out between U.S. and rest of world. If I look at a product like Prevnar, it's about 50-50 U.S. If I look at GARDASIL, it's only 1/3 U.S., ex U.S. is 2/3, so that's quite different. So I'm wondering what Shingrix will look like years down the road from now, more like a Prevnar or GARDASIL or something else.

請問幾個問題。在 Shingrix 上，在成熟期，所以你的未來，我想知道你期望美國和世界其他地區的銷售額如何分配。如果我看一下像 Prevnar 這樣的產品，它大約是 50-50 美元。如果我看一下 GARDASIL，它只有 1/3 美國，美國以外是 2/3，所以這是完全不同的。所以我想知道幾年後 Shingrix 會是什麼樣子，更像是 Prevnar 或 GARDASIL 或其他東西。

And second question is on otilimab updated level of confidence in the upcoming readout and commercial opportunity. Last time, Hal talked about the program. I think in Q4, quite bullish, but today, went through key readouts. On Slide 7, it was not part of prepared remarks despite being Phase III. And I'm wondering if you can tell us how you're thinking about that product.

第二個問題是關於 otilimab 對即將到來的讀數和商業機會的最新信心水平。上次，Hal 談到了程序。我認為在第四季度，相當看漲，但今天，通過了關鍵讀數。在幻燈片 7 上，它不是準備好的評論的一部分，儘管它是第三階段。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您是如何看待該產品的。

Great. Well, let's come to Hal first on that. I wasn't reading everything on the slide. And then perhaps, Luke, you can comment on the profile of Shingrix. The geographic expansion has been -- is, has been and will continue to be a key contributor, but some additional comments from you on that would be good. But Hal first on oti.

偉大的。好吧，讓我們先談談哈爾。我沒有閱讀幻燈片上的所有內容。盧克，也許你可以對 Shingrix 的個人資料發表評論。地域擴張一直是——現在是，一直是並將繼續是一個關鍵的貢獻者，但你對此的一些額外評論會很好。但 Hal 首先在 oti 上。

Yes. Let me -- Tim, thanks for the question. Let me try to answer that. I think that when you look at oti, it's really part of a package with CCL17. What we stated in Q4 and I think remain confident is that in rheumatoid arthritis, although there are a number of different therapies, the biggest unmet medical need in rheumatoid arthritis patients is the reduction in pain, which results in a pretty significant number of patients switching drugs or looking for new opportunities. That, combined with the increasing safety concerns with some of the other reagents out there, we think, represents an opportunity.

是的。讓我——蒂姆，謝謝你提出這個問題。讓我試著回答一下。我認為當您查看 oti 時，它實際上是帶有 CCL17 的軟件包的一部分。我們在第 4 季度中表示並且我認為仍然有信心的是，在類風濕性關節炎中，儘管有許多不同的療法，但類風濕性關節炎患者最大的未滿足的醫療需求是減輕疼痛，這導致相當多的患者轉換藥物或尋找新的機會。我們認為，再加上對其他一些試劑的安全性日益增加的擔憂，這代表了一個機會。

Otilimab is a unique mechanism. It's important to remember that the Phase IIb was actually failed to meet its primary endpoint, but we did see encouraging trends in some of the endpoints that we think are clinically meaningful that relate to symptoms that patients have like pain. And so that's why we move that forward.

Otilimab 是一種獨特的機制。重要的是要記住，IIb 期實際上未能達到其主要終點，但我們確實看到了一些我們認為具有臨床意義的終點令人鼓舞的趨勢，這些終點與患者的疼痛等症狀有關。因此，這就是我們向前推進的原因。

But I think when you think about the fact that the pain signal seemed to be a little bit out of proportion to the anti-inflammatory effects that when you inhibit GM-CSF, when you look at what the transcription profile, it looks like, when you do that in the monocyte, one of the strongest signals we get is the CCL17 protein level changes. And that -- those things combined enabled us to both move forward in Phase III but also initiate a program with the antibodies to CCL17, which has finished its Phase Ib randomized section for osteoarthritis pain.

但我認為當你想到這樣一個事實時，當你抑制 GM-CSF 時，疼痛信號似乎與抗炎作用有點不成比例，當你查看轉錄譜時，它看起來像，當你在單核細胞中這樣做，我們得到的最強信號之一是 CCL17 蛋白水平的變化。那——這些事情結合起來使我們既能在 III 期取得進展，又能啟動一個針對 CCL17 抗體的項目，該項目已經完成了 Ib 期骨關節炎疼痛的隨機部分。

And so we're thinking of that as a package, and we should have data by the end of the year. And we're hoping that there will be a new opportunity for patients to have their pain reduced by some pathways in GM-CSF for CCL17. More data later this year.

因此，我們將其視為一攬子計劃，我們應該在年底前獲得數據。我們希望患者有新的機會通過 CCL17 的 GM-CSF 中的某些途徑減輕疼痛。今年晚些時候會有更多數據。

Thanks, Hal. Luke?

謝謝，哈爾。盧克？

Thanks, Tim. Initially, Prevnar, I mean, I think the U.S. is going to continue to be very dominant. I mean we've gone from 18% this time last year to about 30% ex U.S. But there's still a large volume of patients that we can dose in the U.S. If you go more than 5 years out, it starts to look more like HBV as you see markets like China and Brazil and the larger emerging markets pick up. And that's true sort of at stage, initially, it's very much an out-of-pocket or concentrated immunocompromised reimbursed population. And as we get further out in the plan, we'll switch to a combination of volume and tendering.

謝謝，蒂姆。最初，Prevnar，我的意思是，我認為美國將繼續佔據主導地位。我的意思是，我們已經從去年這個時候的 18% 上升到美國以外的 30% 左右，但在美國仍有大量患者可以給藥。如果超過 5 年，它開始看起來更像 HBV正如您所看到的，中國和巴西等市場以及更大的新興市場正在復蘇。這在某種程度上是真實的，最初，它在很大程度上是一個自付費用或集中的免疫功能低下的報銷人群。隨著我們在計劃中取得進一步進展，我們將轉向數量和招標的組合。

Clearly, we're watching very closely Pfizer and Moderna, and our aim is by the time that they reach the market in 2026, we would have got the bulk of the U.S. and European patients vaccinated. And you know the efficacy profile of this product is quite striking in 8 years plus. So that's how it will look. It just depends on the time point that you assess the distribution between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

顯然，我們正在密切關注輝瑞和 Moderna，我們的目標是到 2026 年它們上市時，我們將為大部分美國和歐洲患者接種疫苗。而且您知道該產品的功效在 8 年多的時間裡非常驚人。這就是它的樣子。這僅取決於您評估美國與世界其他地區之間分佈的時間點。

Thank you. Next question, please.

謝謝。請下一個問題。

The next question is coming from the line of Kerry Holford from Exane (sic) [Berenberg].

下一個問題來自 Exane (sic) [Berenberg] 的 Kerry Holford。

From Berenberg, actually. Two questions, please. Firstly, on M&A, following the recent Sierra acquisition, I'm just interested to hear what appetite capacity you now have some further M&A ownership, particularly in the context of lower valuations out there in the market and tough IPO conditions.

事實上，來自貝倫貝格。請教兩個問題。首先，在併購方面，在最近對 Sierra 的收購之後，我只想听聽您現在對進一步的併購所有權有多大的胃口，特別是在市場估值較低和 IPO 條件艱難的情況下。

And also in the context of that, can we expect you to continue to focus on oncology? Or are you still looking across other therapeutic areas?

在這種情況下，我們能否期望您繼續專注於腫瘤學？或者您仍在尋找其他治療領域？

And then finally, just a quick follow-up on RSV. When that Phase III study is complete, can we expect you to provide efficacy detail within a press release? Or might you just message at a very high level, it works, it didn't work?

最後，只是對 RSV 的快速跟進。當 III 期研究完成時，我們能否期望您在新聞稿中提供療效細節？或者你可能只是在一個非常高的層次上發消息，它有效，它無效？

Thanks, Kerry. And well, first of all, on BD, we have both appetite and capacity. I think we've been extremely consistent in emphasizing that our #1 priority continues to be the strengthening and the execution of the pipeline, that we expect to complement that with business development as well as driving forward our organic portfolio. Obviously delighted with the latest news on Sierra.

謝謝，克里。好吧，首先，在 BD 上，我們既有胃口又有能力。我認為我們一直非常一致地強調，我們的第一要務仍然是加強和執行管道，我們希望通過業務發展來補充這一點，並推動我們的有機投資組合。顯然對 Sierra 的最新消息感到高興。

If you take a step back, this is across our Vaccines and Specialty portfolio. We want to pursue things that are in line with our strategy, in line with our key therapy areas and obviously, with due financial discipline depending on the stage of it, whether it's IR, NPV or with the latest stuff CFROI. So a lot of focus there.

如果你退後一步，這是在我們的疫苗和專業產品組合中。我們希望追求符合我們戰略的事物，符合我們的關鍵治療領域，顯然，根據階段，無論是 IR、NPV 還是最新的 CFROI，都要有適當的財務紀律。那裡有很多重點。

I mean just if you think about it, even in the first quarter, obviously, we've made some moves in oncology. But in this quarter, we contributed 1.3 billion from the business development partnership with Vir. We went into the clinic actually with our 2 CureVac mRNA unmodified assets, both on flu and on COVID and will come in later with the others. And we've seen all the progress we're making on 2-drug regimens and super excited, hopefully, later in the year to see some first data out on the combos with Halozyme and BD.

我的意思是，只要你考慮一下，即使在第一季度，很明顯，我們在腫瘤學方面也採取了一些舉措。但在本季度，我們從與 Vir 的業務發展合作夥伴關係中貢獻了 13 億美元。我們實際上帶著我們的 2 CureVac mRNA 未修改資產進入診所，包括流感和 COVID，稍後將與其他資產一起進入。我們已經看到了我們在 2 種藥物療法方面取得的所有進展，並且非常興奮，希望在今年晚些時候看到一些關於 Halozyme 和 BD 組合的第一批數據。

So yes, we will continue to do more, including in sort of structured partnerships. And that obviously is one of the benefits -- the strategic benefits of the demerger is the continued strengthening of our balance sheet to do so but with all due discipline.

所以是的，我們將繼續做更多的事情，包括某種結構化的合作夥伴關係。這顯然是好處之一——分拆的戰略好處是繼續加強我們的資產負債表，但要遵守所有應有的紀律。

Hal, is there anything that you want to comment on in terms of data, plans when the results come in with RSV?

哈爾，當結果與 RSV 一起出現時，你有什麼想在數據和計劃方面評論的嗎？

Well, I mean, we're looking forward to completing the study and getting the data, interpreting the data and ideally, sharing the data externally, the headline data like we typically do. But it's often a case-by-case basis, and we're going to have to take a look at all of that before deciding exactly what goes in the press release typically.

好吧，我的意思是，我們期待著完成研究並獲取數據，解釋數據，理想情況下，在外部共享數據，就像我們通常做的那樣。但這通常是個案處理，在決定新聞稿中通常包含哪些內容之前，我們將不得不查看所有這些內容。

Fair. Next question, please.

公平的。請下一個問題。

The next question is coming from the line of Peter Welford from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Peter Welford。

Two fairly quick ones. Firstly, just on osteoarthritis, RSV rather. And just again, just following up on the timing of the data, given what we see with the RSV cases, which are now significantly coming down to almost 0, I think in both Europe and the U.S. Can you just talk about have you got all the events you need for the analysis already and now it's just a case of analysis? Or are you still actually waiting for some of the events to occur? And I guess, how should we think about in regards to your confidence then of getting the readout in 2Q?

兩個相當快的。首先，只是關於骨關節炎，而不是 RSV。再一次，只是跟進數據的時間，鑑於我們在 RSV 病例中看到的情況，現在已經顯著下降到幾乎為 0，我認為在歐洲和美國。你能談談你得到了所有嗎您已經需要分析的事件，現在只是一個分析案例？還是您實際上仍在等待某些事件的發生？我想，我們應該如何考慮您對在第二季度獲得讀數的信心？

And then just one, which I think is probably more Consumer than anything else. But with regards to Russia and Ukraine, there was a comment about there were some provisions taken in the quarter. Can you just talk what was the impact, if any, on the Consumer margin? I guess, I'm thinking, was that a factor that we should consider actually that was potentially a negative on the margin this quarter given I think the Consumer business is more extensively exposed to Russia than perhaps Glaxo is?

然後只有一個，我認為這可能比其他任何東西都更消費者。但關於俄羅斯和烏克蘭，有人評論說該季度採取了一些規定。您能否談談對消費者利潤率的影響（如果有）？我想，我在想，考慮到我認為消費者業務比葛蘭素史克更廣泛地暴露於俄羅斯，我們是否應該考慮這個因素實際上可能對本季度的利潤率產生負面影響？

And perhaps you could just talk a little bit about cash collection as well, please, in Russia particularly and whether or not you've had to take or have seen any decrease in the ability to get cash collection at all so far.

也許你也可以談談現金收集的問題，特別是在俄羅斯，到目前為止，你是否不得不採取或已經看到現金收集能力有任何下降。

Great. Thanks. Well, lots of detail on the questions on Russia, which I'll ask Iain to cover. I mean it's one for the group and slightly more for Consumer than GSK, but I wouldn't make that too wide a difference. And Iain will comment on that. Hal, just anything to add at all on the older adult trial?

偉大的。謝謝。好吧，關於俄羅斯問題的很多細節，我會請伊恩來介紹。我的意思是它是針對集團的，而對於消費者來說比 GSK 稍微多一些，但我不會做出太大的區別。伊恩將對此發表評論。哈爾，關於老年人試驗有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. Of course, these are -- as you know, these are event-driven analyses, but we remain on track, as we've said, to read it out by the end of Q2.

不。當然，正如你所知，這些是事件驅動的分析，但正如我們所說，我們仍在按計劃在第二季度末讀出它。

Right. Thanks. Iain?

正確的。謝謝。伊恩？

Yes. Thanks, Emma. Thanks for the question, Peter. So on Russia for GSK, if you like, Biopharma and GSK, less than 1% revenues, less than 1% adjusted operating profit. In terms of provisions in the quarter, consequently, you can imagine that there are no relevance from a materiality perspective. The vast majority of our receivables in Russia are insured and subject absolutely to our compliance with any sanctions. At least the willingness to continue to pay the bills is coming through clearly from customers whilst recognizing the continued reshaping and prioritization of the businesses, both from a Biopharma and from a Consumer Healthcare perspective.

是的。謝謝，艾瑪。謝謝你的問題，彼得。因此，在俄羅斯，對於 GSK，如果你願意的話，Biopharma 和 GSK 的收入不到 1%，調整後的營業利潤不到 1%。因此，就本季度的規定而言，您可以想像從重要性的角度來看沒有任何相關性。我們在俄羅斯的絕大多數應收賬款都已投保，並且絕對受制於我們是否遵守任何制裁。至少繼續支付賬單的意願明顯來自客戶，同時從生物製藥和消費者保健的角度認識到業務的持續重塑和優先排序。

And the data that I've shared and the facts I've shared is equally true across both Consumer and GSK. So at this stage in the proceedings, well covered from an insurance perspective, willingness of customers to the extent they can pay with clear compliance with sanctions still very, very clear. And to the extent that we've taken provisions in the quarter, they are not material either for GSK or for Haleon.

我分享的數據和我分享的事實在消費者和葛蘭素史克中同樣適用。因此，在訴訟的現階段，從保險的角度來看，客戶願意在明確遵守制裁的情況下支付的金額仍然非常非常明確。就我們在本季度採取的準備金而言，它們對 GSK 或 Haleon 都不重要。

Thank you. Next question, please.

謝謝。請下一個問題。

The next question is coming from the line of Iain Simpson from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的伊恩辛普森。

A couple of questions from me, if I may. I mean I understand that you're -- you've made the point about tough comps in the second half of this year. But if I look back to the performance in 2020 and try and think about the 2-year stack and where you sit versus pre-pandemic levels, the comps aren't all that tough. So they're a couple of percent tougher maybe for the full year versus the Q1. And you've clearly had a very strong Q1 print. So I'm just trying to think about your guidance of being sort of between 4% and 6% for the full year. Is there an element of you just wanting to be conservative there given how limited visibility is and how much we've seen things change globally in the last few months?

如果可以的話，請問我幾個問題。我的意思是我知道你 - 你已經在今年下半年提出了關於艱難競爭的觀點。但是，如果我回顧 2020 年的表現，並嘗試考慮 2 年的籌碼量以及與大流行前水平相比的位置，那麼補償並沒有那麼難。因此，與第一季度相比，他們全年可能要強硬幾個百分點。而且你顯然有一個非常強大的第一季度印刷品。所以我只是想考慮你對全年 4% 到 6% 的指導。考慮到可見度有限以及過去幾個月我們在全球範圍內看到的情況發生了多少變化，你們中有沒有人只是想保持保守？

And then my second question, when I think about your margin, again, clearly a strong start to the year. But how should I think about the phasing of that stand-alone cost building as we go through the year? You've said you've done some systems transfer, but at what point does that stand-alone cost really start to kick in?

然後是我的第二個問題，當我再次想到你的利潤時，今年顯然是一個強勁的開端。但是，在我們度過這一年的過程中，我應該如何考慮該獨立成本建設的分階段？您已經說過您已經完成了一些系統轉移，但這種獨立成本在什麼時候真正開始發揮作用？

Great. Well, both questions for Brian. Just as a reminder, it's only Q1 in terms of outlook for the year from our perspective. But Brian, do you want to...

偉大的。好吧，這兩個問題都要問 Brian。提醒一下，從我們的角度來看，就今年的前景而言，這只是第一季度。但是布賴恩，你想...

Yes, absolutely. Thanks, Iain. And again, I just want to reinforce, I do feel very good about our start of the year and the performance given the organic sales growth, pretty broad-based across category, regions and across power brands. And I talked about the 2% forward buy and the impact of cold and flu.

是的，一點沒錯。謝謝，伊恩。再一次，我只是想強調，鑑於有機銷售增長，我對我們今年的開局和業績感到非常滿意，跨類別、地區和跨品牌的基礎非常廣泛。我還談到了 2% 的遠期購買以及感冒和流感的影響。

It's early in the year, and we are managing through a very uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. So like I said, I'm very confident in our 4% to 6% guidance for the year. But at this point, I think it would be premature to say anything else.

今年年初，我們正在應對非常不確定的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境。所以就像我說的，我對我們今年 4% 到 6% 的指導非常有信心。但在這一點上，我認為現在說其他話還為時過早。

On your comps, it is quarter-by-quarter, can be up and down as we know. If you think 2 years ago in Q1, we were up 14%; last year, minus 9%; this year, plus 16%. And that's a bit of the up and down in cold and flu and the forward buys. And we look at the back half, we know in Q4 is we had a cold and flu season that was similar to what we're seeing in Q1 of this year, and that's where my comment on the comps really come from.

正如我們所知，在您的公司中，它是逐季度的，可以上下波動。如果你認為 2 年前的第一季度，我們上漲了 14%；去年，負 9%；今年，增加了 16%。這就是感冒和流感的起伏以及遠期購買。我們看看後半部分，我們知道在第四季度我們經歷了一個感冒和流感季節，這與我們在今年第一季度看到的情況相似，這就是我對 comps 的評論的真正來源。

On the margin, again, strong start to the year and feel good about how we've been able to navigate a very tough economic environment. But as I said, the GBP 175 million to GBP 200 million of cost to run Haleon as an independent company aren't fully ramped up. They're getting more ramped up in Q2. And then as we become an independent company, you expect us to be pretty much fully in place. But as we think about the back half -- and again, nothing has changed from the building blocks we shared in Capital Markets Day for 2022 or in the medium-term guidance of moderate margin expansion.

在邊際上，今年開局強勁，對我們如何度過非常艱難的經濟環境感到滿意。但正如我所說，將 Haleon 作為一家獨立公司運營的 1.75 億至 2 億英鎊的成本並未完全增加。他們在第二季度變得更加活躍。然後，當我們成為一家獨立的公司時，您希望我們能夠完全就位。但是當我們考慮後半部分時——再一次，我們在 2022 年資本市場日分享的基石或適度利潤率擴張的中期指導沒有任何改變。

Fantastic. So obviously, we're all looking forward to the next steps in the deployment ahead of the demerger. Next question, please. I think we have time for one more...

極好的。很明顯，我們都期待在分拆之前部署的下一步。請下一個問題。我想我們還有時間再來一...

Next question is coming from the line of Mark Purcell from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Mark Purcell。

Just going back to 2 topics. Firstly, on RSV, can you help us understand what would be considered a positive readout from RSV trial? J&J set a benchmark I guess with the CYPRESS data. So is that what we should be thinking about? Otherwise, what sort of benchmark should we be thinking about?

回到2個話題。首先，關於 RSV，您能否幫助我們了解什麼會被視為 RSV 試驗的陽性讀數？我猜 J&J 用 CYPRESS 數據設定了一個基準。那是我們應該考慮的嗎？否則，我們應該考慮什麼樣的基準？

And then sort of secondly on Shingrix, follow-up to Tim's question, where are we at the moment in Germany relative to the U.S. in terms of uptake? And how should we think about the progress of other ex U.S. countries compared to Germany maybe using that as a proxy? Luke, you sort of talked to how you felt that you captured the European market in 5 years, so just trying to understand the progress there and where we are with upgrades such as the liquid formulation and looking at trials in immunocompromised adults above 18 years of age as well to build the market further.

然後是關於 Shingrix 的問題，跟進 Tim 的問題，我們目前在德國相對於美國在吸收方面處於什麼位置？與德國相比，我們應該如何考慮其他美國以外國家的進步，也許可以將其用作代理？盧克，你談到了你如何在 5 年內佔領了歐洲市場，所以只是想了解那裡的進展以及我們在液體配方等升級方面的進展情況，並著眼於 18 歲以上免疫功能低下的成年人的試驗年齡以及進一步建立市場。

Okay. Great. So Hal, to you first, please, just quickly on RSV trial data. And then Luke, over to you, please.

好的。偉大的。哈爾，首先，請快速了解 RSV 試驗數據。然後是 Luke，請輪到你了。

Yes. Thanks, Mark, for the question. As we've said previously, it's both hard to predict efficacy and it's hard to predict efficacy relative to competitors without any data. But as we look at our own immunogenicity data, the aggregate packages that have been presented by other companies, I think we have -- and I should say, and in discussions with clinicians, we're pretty confident that effects that are more than 50% are probably clinically meaningful and in fact, greater than 70% is a very good response, and it will be, we think, a very successful vaccine. And should we get efficacy above 80%, that's truly outstanding.

是的。謝謝，馬克，提出這個問題。正如我們之前所說，在沒有任何數據的情況下，很難預測療效，也很難預測相對於競爭對手的療效。但是當我們查看我們自己的免疫原性數據時，其他公司提供的匯總包，我認為我們有 - 我應該說，在與臨床醫生的討論中，我們非常有信心超過 50 % 可能具有臨床意義，事實上，大於 70% 是一個非常好的反應，我們認為這將是一種非常成功的疫苗。如果我們的效率超過 80%，那就太棒了。

Right. Luke?

正確的。盧克？

Sure. So Mark, I mean, if you look at Germany, it's about 133 of the 160. And I mean, we're at early stages with Germany. I think what's attractive about Germany is you've got heavy levels of support from the 6 funds, so there's not a high out-of-pocket exposure. Now that varies across the rest of Europe. Some countries have concentrated on the immunocompromised for reimbursement. Other countries have got a cutoff in terms of age, so it's going to be more staged with those markets.

當然。所以馬克，我的意思是，如果你看看德國，它大約是 160 個中的 133 個。我的意思是，我們與德國處於早期階段。我認為德國的吸引力在於您得到了 6 支基金的大量支持，因此自付費用不高。現在，歐洲其他地區的情況有所不同。一些國家將重點放在免疫功能低下的報銷上。其他國家/地區在年齡方面有限制，因此在這些市場上會更加上演。

And then if you look beyond Europe, we've seen a good uptake in Canada. We're just starting to get going in Australia. We'll launch in Brazil later this year. In markets like Saudi, we expect to pick up. Again, the strategy is in the initial out-of-pocket segment at a consistent price globally, and then we'll go to tiers and tenders later in the life cycle of the product. So very much starting out.

然後，如果您放眼歐洲以外，我們就會看到加拿大的良好發展。我們在澳大利亞才剛剛開始。我們將於今年晚些時候在巴西推出。在沙特等市場，我們預計會回升。同樣，該策略是在全球範圍內以一致的價格在最初的自付費用部分中進行的，然後我們將在產品生命週期的後期進行分級和招標。所以非常開始。

And then China, finally, it's very much on hold right now because all vaccinations in China have to be procured through points of vaccinations, which are run by the government. And of course, right now, they're heavily focused on COVID vaccines as well as the restrictions that people have in China right now.

然後是中國，最後，它現在被擱置了，因為中國的所有疫苗接種都必須通過政府管理的疫苗接種點採購。當然，現在，他們主要關注 COVID 疫苗以及人們目前在中國受到的限制。

Great. Thanks. And one last question, please.

偉大的。謝謝。最後一個問題，請。

And our last question is coming from the line of Simon Baker from Redburn.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Simon Baker。

Two questions. First one for Brian, on oral health, it's an important driver because, historically, it's grown above the 4% to 6% growth rate that you've been targeting. So just wondering if you could provide us with some color on how the market is evolving and your share within it and any innovations you're pursuing within Sensodyne to continue that growth.

兩個問題。第一個關於 Brian 的，關於口腔健康，它是一個重要的驅動因素，因為從歷史上看，它的增長率超過了你設定的 4% 到 6% 的增長率。所以只是想知道您是否可以為我們提供一些關於市場如何演變的顏色以及您在其中的份額以及您在 Sensodyne 內追求的任何創新以繼續增長。

And then a question for Hal, touching on something you mentioned. You talked about dostarlimab at CD96 antagonist in TIGIT. And you do have a Phase I study trying those in triple combination, which I saw was expanded and delayed last week. This trial has been expanding. It's been pushed out about 18 months to August 2024. So any color you could give us on the reason for the expansion and the delay would be great.

然後是 Hal 的問題，涉及你提到的內容。你在 TIGIT 的 CD96 拮抗劑中談到了 dostarlimab。你確實有一個 I 期研究嘗試三重組合，我看到上週擴大和延遲了。這個試驗一直在擴大。它被推遲了大約 18 個月到 2024 年 8 月。所以你可以給我們任何關於擴展和延遲原因的顏色。

Thanks. Well, so Hal, let's come first to you, and then we can fittingly finish with the question on...

謝謝。好吧，哈爾，讓我們先來找你，然後我們可以恰當地結束關於……的問題。

Well, thanks for the question. We're very excited about our immuno-oncology portfolio. We think the CD226 axis, highlighted by TIGIT but also complemented by CD96 and as I mentioned earlier, the addition of PV rig is an exciting opportunity for GSK to be leaders in this new area of immuno-oncology should it end up being successful.

好吧，謝謝你的提問。我們對我們的免疫腫瘤產品組合感到非常興奮。我們認為 CD226 軸，由 TIGIT 強調，但也由 CD96 補充，正如我之前提到的，PV 鑽機的加入對於 GSK 來說是一個令人興奮的機會，如果它最終成功的話，它將成為免疫腫瘤學這一新領域的領導者。

The programs are challenging to develop both TIGIT monotherapy, TIGIT combination, identifying doses for both of those, adding in CD96 with dostarlimab, adding CD96 with a triplet. So these studies are all quite complicated to find doses and whatnot. So the expansion of the trials are really to highlight the ability to find the right dose, make sure they're safe and look for efficacy signals, and we're doing that across different tumor types. So it's a very robust program, but we're going to have to enroll a number of patients before we get the answers to the triplet combination.

這些項目在開發 TIGIT 單一療法、TIGIT 聯合療法、確定這兩種療法的劑量、添加 CD96 和 dostarlimab、添加 CD96 和三聯療法方面具有挑戰性。因此，這些研究都非常複雜，無法找到劑量等等。因此，擴大試驗實際上是為了突出找到合適劑量的能力，確保它們是安全的並尋找療效信號，我們正在針對不同的腫瘤類型進行這項工作。所以這是一個非常強大的項目，但在我們得到三胞胎組合的答案之前，我們將不得不招募一些患者。

Thanks. And Brian, on oral health.

謝謝。還有布賴恩，關於口腔健康。

Yes. Thanks for the question. So first of all, good -- really good performance in oral health in Q1. We grew 9% versus a year ago. And it was really strength across all of our 3 main brands: high single-digit growth on Sensodyne; double-digit growth on Parodontax; double-digit growth on denture care, which has a bit of a rebound from softer consumption during the pandemic. Importantly, we grew share on all 3 of those brands on a global basis.

是的。謝謝你的問題。所以首先，好 - 第一季度在口腔健康方面的表現非常好。與一年前相比，我們增長了 9%。這確實是我們所有 3 個主要品牌的實力：Sensodyne 的高個位數增長； Parodontax 的兩位數增長；義齒護理業務實現兩位數增長，從大流行期間消費疲軟中略有反彈。重要的是，我們在全球範圍內增加了所有這三個品牌的份額。

From an innovation perspective, we launched Sensodyne Nourish in the U.S. and are beginning to roll that out. And Sensodyne Nourish is still providing the sensitivity benefits but also has herbal ingredients. It's in recycled toothpaste tubes and packaging, and it's attracting a younger consumer base into the franchise. Early days, but we're encouraged by where that will take us. So feel very good about our oral care franchise and the way the year started.

從創新的角度來看，我們在美國推出了 Sensodyne Nourish，並且正在開始推廣。 Sensodyne Nourish 仍然提供敏感性益處，但也含有草藥成分。它採用回收牙膏管和包裝，吸引了年輕的消費者群體加入該品牌。早期，但我們對它將帶我們去的地方感到鼓舞。因此，對我們的口腔護理特許經營權和這一年的開始方式感到非常滿意。

Great. So thank you, everybody, for the call. Obviously, a strong start to this landmark year for GSK. And we're now very excited to be in the final stages of the plan to demerge Consumer and create 2 companies with new chapters for growth. It's wonderful to see good momentum across the business. Recognizing phasing patterns, the underlying strength is very much there, and we remain all extremely focused on maximizing shareholder value, patient impact and building businesses with people that can thrive.

偉大的。謝謝大家的來電。顯然，對於葛蘭素史克來說，這是具有里程碑意義的一年的良好開端。現在，我們非常高興能夠進入拆分 Consumer 計劃的最後階段，並創建 2 家具有新增長篇章的公司。很高興看到整個行業的良好勢頭。認識到分階段模式，潛在的力量就在那裡，我們仍然非常專注於最大化股東價值、耐心的影響以及與能夠蓬勃發展的人建立業務。

Thank you very much. We look forward to speaking to you all soon in coming days and weeks.

非常感謝。我們期待在未來幾天和幾週內盡快與大家交談。

And everyone, that concludes the call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you all for joining, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

各位，今天的呼籲到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。感謝大家的加入，祝您度過愉快的一天。