Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (GRP.U) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Granite REIT's Second Quarter Results for 2022. Speaking to you on the call this morning is Kevan Gorrie, President and Chief Executive Office; and Teresa Neto, Chief Financial Officer.

I would now like to turn the call over to Teresa Neto to go over certain advisories, followed by the introduction of Kevan Gorrie. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone.

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that statements and information made in today's discussion may constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information, including, but not limited to, expectations regarding future earnings and capital expenditures and that actual results could differ materially from any conclusion, forecast or projection. These statements and information are based on certain material facts or assumptions, reflect management's current expectations and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are disclosed in Granite's material filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time, including the Risk Factors section of its Annual Information Form for 2021 filed on March 9, 2022.

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements and forward-looking information. The REIT reviews its key assumptions regularly and it may change its outlook on an ongoing forward basis, if necessary. Granite undertakes no intention or obligation to update or revise its key assumptions or any forward-looking statements or forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

In addition, the remarks this morning may include financial terms and measures that do not have standardized meaning under International Financial Reporting Standards. Please refer to the audited combined financial results and management discussion and analysis for the 3 and 6 months ended June 30, 2022, for Granite REIT Real Estate Investment Trust and Granite REIT Inc. and other materials filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time for additional relevant information.

With that out of the way, I will commence the call with the financial highlights and then turn it over to Kevan, who will follow with the operational update. Granite posted strong Q2, '22 results driven by healthy NOI growth and despite foreign currency headwinds with a continuing weaker euro, but that was partially offset by a strengthening U.S. dollar.

FFO per unit in Q2 was $1.09, representing a $0.04 or 3.8% increase from Q1 and a 10.1% increase relative to the same quarter in the prior year. Strong NOI from acquisitions and same-property NOI growth was only partially muted by both unfavorable and favorable foreign exchange movements, where the euro was 8% weaker and the U.S. dollar 4% stronger relative to the same quarter last year, resulting in a nominal impact to FFO per unit.

Granite's AFFO on a per unit basis in Q2 was $104 million, which is $0.04 and $0.08 higher, respectively, relative to Q1 and the same quarter last year. AFFO related capital expenditures, leasing costs and tenant allowances incurred in the quarter totaled $1.5 million, and for the year, the year-to-date period is $4.6 million. For 2022, we estimate AFFO-related maintenance capital expenditures and leasing costs coming in between $15 million and $17 million for the year, which is unchanged from the estimate provided at the Q1 call.

Same-property NOI for Q2 '22 was very strong relative to the same quarter last year, increasing 3.6% on a constant currency basis, but up 2.2% when foreign currency effects are included. Same-property NOI was driven primarily by higher-than-previous CPI adjustments, positive leasing spreads and contractual rent increases across all of Granite's regions as well as the lease-up of a vacancy that was realized in the prior year at Granite asset in Locust Grove, Georgia.

G&A for the quarter was $6 million, which was $2.3 million lower than the same quarter last year and $2.3 million lower than Q1. The main variance relative to the prior quarter and Q1 is the change in noncash compensation liabilities, which generated a favorable $4 million swing relative to the same quarter last year, and a $2.2 million fair value swing relative to Q1 as we recognize fair value gains on those liabilities due to a 19.5% decrease in Granite's unit price during the quarter. Of the $3 million of fair value gains realized this quarter, $1.6 million related to the DSUs, however, as a result of amendments made to Granite's DSU plan on June 9, 2022, only fair value gains up to the amendment date of $0.9 million directly impact FFO. Post the amendment of the DSU Plan, fair value gains and losses on our DSU liabilities will be added back or deducted for purposes of FFO, consistent with the fair value gains and losses recognized on Granite's other noncash compensation liabilities, essentially removing some of the noise that we've experienced in the last few quarters.

On a run rate basis, we expect G&A expenses to continue at approximately $8.5 million to $9 million per quarter or roughly 8% of revenues, excluding any amounts for fair value adjustments related to noncash compensation liabilities. For income tax, Q2 current income tax was $1.9 million, which is $2.4 million lower than the prior year and essentially flat to Q1. The variance related to Q2 '21 is largely attributable to the $2.3 million of current taxes recognized on the dispositions that occurred in that prior quarter. After adjusting for the aforementioned current tax expense related to dispositions, current taxes are slightly higher than the prior quarter, resulting from a larger European portfolio.

On a run rate basis, we estimate current tax at approximately $2.2 million per quarter before recognizing any reversals of tax provisions. Interest expense was lower in Q2 relative to Q1 by $0.2 million, reflecting the interest savings realized from the refinancing completed early February of its 2028 cross-currency interest rate swaps to euro-based interest payments partially offset by incremental interest expense on draws and Granite's credit facility beginning in the second quarter of '22. On a run rate basis, we estimate interest expense will run approximately $11 million per quarter before factoring in any new debt over and above credit facility borrowings. All of Granite's debt is fixed rate debt through cross-currency interest rate swap hedges with the exception of the credit facility, which is at a variable rate and subject to increases in underlying treasury rates.

With respect to 2022 estimates, despite an overall weaker euro and rising interest rates impacting short-term borrowings due to strong operational performance. Granite continues to forecast that FFO and AFFO per unit will come in the range provided in March of this year being $4.31 to $4.43 for FFO per unit and $3.96 to $4.08 for AFFO per unit. Further, our singular estimates remain unchanged for FFO per unit of approximately $4.35 and AFFO per unit of $3.98. We have updated our assumptions regarding foreign exchange rates and are estimating for the second half of '22 a weaker euro, offset by a stronger U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar. Our Canadian dollar to euro average rate is now $1.32 from $1.39 assumed last quarter, and our Canadian dollar to U.S. dollar rate is $1.28 versus $1.26 from last quarter. As communicated before, we estimate that a $0.01 movement in the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar impacts FFO and AFFO per unit by $0.02 and a $0.01 movement in the Canadian dollar relative to the euro results in a $0.01 impact to FFO and AFFO per unit.

The Trust's balance sheet comprising of total assets of $9.1 billion at the end of the quarter was negatively impacted by $251 million in fair value losses on Granite's investment property portfolio in the second quarter, offset partially by $86 million of translation gains on Granite's foreign-based investment properties, particularly due to the 3.2% increase in the U.S. spot exchange rate. The fair value losses on Granite's investment property portfolio were primarily attributable to the expansion in discount rates and an expansion of terminal capitalization rates across all of Granite's markets in response to rising interest rates, partially offset by fair market rent increases across the GTA, U.S. and European markets reflecting current market fundamentals.

The Trust's overall weighted average cap rate of 4.48% increased 18 basis points from the end of Q1, but has still decreased a full 62 basis points since the same quarter last year. Total net leverage as of June 30 was 28% and net debt to EBITDA remained steady at 7.4x. The Trust's current liquidity is approximately $845 million, representing cash on hand of approximately $85 million and the undrawn operating line of $760 million. As of today, Granite has drawn a total of USD 188 million or approximately CAD 240 million under the credit facility, and there is $2.5 million in letters of credit outstanding. Based on forecasted dispositions and remaining development commitments for the year, Granite is estimating that approximately $260 million or an equivalent of USD 205 million will be drawn on the credit facility by the end of the year. Granite is currently reviewing options to convert the credit facility borrowings into longer-term 3-year term financing with term loan debt.

Further, Granite will also be monitoring market conditions in the coming months to look to refinance its 2023 debentures, which are coming due in November 2023. In other financing activities during the period between April 1 and April 29, Granite issued 120,300 stapled units under the ATM program at an average stapled unit price of $98.84 for gross proceeds of $11.9 million. And then later in the quarter, between June 16 and June 30, Granite repurchased 448,400 stapled units under its NCIB at an average stapled unit cost of $78.90 for total consideration of $35.4 million, excluding commissions.

I will now turn the call over to Kevan. Thank you.

Thanks, Teresa. Building on Teresa's comments, I would begin by saying I would characterize our results for the quarter as being in line with our expectations at least from a financial, operational and strategic perspective, but impacted somewhat by reversal in fair value gains we have seen on our portfolio over the past several quarters. Although I would point out the negative fair value adjustments were themselves, partially offset by higher NOI and market rents as well as gains from the transfer of 2 of our properties under development to IPP in the quarter which I will discuss in greater detail.

To begin with investments, the majority of the acquisitions closed in the quarter were previously announced in our Q1 MD&A and press release. So I won't comment further on those, but I will highlight the 2 new smaller acquisitions completed in the GTA in the quarter. Despite changing market conditions, we completed these transactions based on a combination of an attractive yield an average cost basis below $265 per square foot and the strong potential to increase returns through expansion and development. With the exception of a small parcel of land located near our site, our existing site in Brantford, there are no pending acquisitions in our pipeline.

With respect to dispositions, as you can see, we completed the sale of our sole asset in the Czech Republic in the quarter. As stated in our MD&A, we have initiated the sale process for 2 of our assets in the U.S. and GTA for a combined value of roughly $150 million and we may proceed with 1 to 2 further asset sales in the second half of the year.

On the development front, you can see from our MD&A, we transferred 2 of our development projects, Village Creek in Dallas and Altbach, Germany, from properties under development to IPP generating a gain of approximately CAD 80 million in the fair value of those properties. We also officially launched our development project in Brantford with a 409,000 square foot state-of-art food grade facility for Barry Callebaut, a leading global producer of chocolate and cocoa products on a 20-year lease term. Completion is scheduled for the first quarter of 2024, and the property is expected to generate an unlevered development yield of 6.5%, driven by contractual rent significantly above pro forma. As stated on our first quarter call, supply chain disruptions have caused delays to a number of our projects in the U.S., which we believe has impacted the leasing velocity to a degree. We are currently in advanced negotiations on over 1 million square feet of development space and hope to have an update for you shortly.

All of our developments are expected to receive applicable green building certification and will satisfy the criteria outlined in our green bond framework. Our Village Creek property is expected to receive 2 Green Globes Certification and our Altbach property recently received DGNB Gold certification. Keeping with ESG, we are very pleased to present our global ESG report for 2021, which is now available on our website. This report documents the progress we made against several key targets set in 2021 and outlines our -- in some cases, revised upward objectives and targets for 2022 and beyond. I won't repeat the details of the report, but I do think it's worth highlighting the advancement made by the team against a number of key targets, including energy and water reduction, EV charging stations, rooftop solar, green building certifications and the alignment of our financial disclosure with globally accepted sustainability frameworks which Teresa touched upon.

Volunteering and community involvement were also notable for the team in 2021, and we are now proudly supporting over 50 charitable and community groups across our offices. I invite you to read a report, and we welcome your feedback.

Operationally, we signed renewals or new leases on just over 4 million feet of space since our last call inclusive of our development leasing. That total includes roughly 1.6 million square feet of renewals at an average increase in rental rate of roughly 27%. There is currently now 340,000 feet of expiries remaining in 2022, and we anticipate achieving an increase in rental rate of roughly 60% on those expiries.

Outlined in our MD&A, our occupancy decreased to 97.8% at the end of the quarter, but roughly half of that vacancy is represented by our Dallas development, which became IPP at the end of the quarter as discussed, but where the tenant's lease does not commence until the first of October. The introduction of our Altbach development to our IPP portfolio also added roughly 200,000 feet of vacancy. Including committed space or occupancy increases to 98.9%, and we are close to agreeing to terms with the tenant on roughly 250,000 feet of the reported vacancy, which would bring our occupancy back over 99%.

As Teresa mentioned, same-property NOI increased by 3.6% on a constant currency basis, in line with our expectations and guidance, driven by strong re-leasing spreads and leasing of vacant space at our (inaudible) Logistics Park asset in Atlanta, offset by turnover of 2 U.S. properties. We anticipate achieving rents roughly 50% above expiring rents on both availabilities. At this time, we are reiterating our same-property NOI guidance for 2022 of between 3.5% to 4.5%, but now expect to end the year at the higher end of that range. With respect to our investment properties, I would like to provide further detail on our fair value adjustment of approximately $250 million.

Based on market data, both from an investment market, i.e., terminal cap rates and discount rates and from a leasing market perspective, the majority of asset values in our portfolio were impacted by varying degrees by changes in market conditions. Because we perform discounted cash flow models on all of our properties in each quarter, utilized terminal cap rates and discount rates in our analysis of fair value rather than simply applying cap rates on annual NOI.

Beginning with the GTA, we adjusted our discount rates upward by roughly 25 basis points on average to reflect a higher premium on future cash flows, which negatively impacted asset values here. Fair market rents for the GTA were also revised upward by $0.25 per square foot on average partially offsetting the value impact of the expansion in discount rate.

Moving on to our U.S. portfolio, where we saw the highest quarterly movement in investment metrics. We adjusted our terminal cap rates and discount rates by 25 to 50 basis points, with a higher adjustment concentrated in assets with longer lease terms and lower contractual rent escalations. Fair market rents were increased between $0.00 and $0.50 per square foot on average, reflecting strong leasing market fundamentals and rent growth across our markets in the quarter. Finishing in Europe, we adjusted TCRs and discount rates upward by 0 to 25 basis points and 0 to 40 basis points, respectively, and increased fair market rents by roughly per square foot.

In summary, these adjustments negatively impacted asset values, but the losses were mitigated by higher NOI and increases in market rents. Overall, as you can see, the fair value of our portfolio decreased by roughly 3%. Further adjustments in terminal cap rate and discount rates may be required in future quarters, but at this point, we expect the negative impact of those adjustments on asset values for warehouse and distribution assets to continue to be mitigated by improving NOI and higher market rents. Related to the value of our investment properties, it is worth repeating the contribution from our development assets, roughly adding $1.20 per unit in NAV, and reducing the loss on the fair value of our portfolio in the quarter. We expect this trend to continue as our current pipeline of development projects reach stabilization as expected over the next several quarters, fully consistent with our strategic plan.

I'd like to end my comments on market fundamentals before opening up the call for questions. As mentioned above, vacancy rates remain low across our markets and market rents continue to rise. Notably, the U.S., our data for the second quarter is strongest, finished the second quarter at 2.9% vacancy, the lowest on record, led by large bay demand from traditional retailers and wholesalers and third-party logistics providers. Net absorption fell to 76 million square feet from 110 million in the first quarter but that was hampered by low availability and delays in construction completions. There is currently over 600 million square feet under construction with pre-leasing representing roughly 1/3 of that total. Asking rents rose to $9.40 per square foot on average, an increase of over 5% from the first quarter and 15% year-over-year, another record, and rent growth is projected to continue into 2023.

On that note, I'd like to open up the floor for questions.

(Operator Instructions) We'll get our first question on the line. It is from Sumayya Syed from CIBC Capital Markets.

Firstly, Kevan, just to go back to your comments on the U.S. supply chain delays and impact on leasing velocity. Is that from terms of delaying decisions or pushing back on rent or just what's causing that dynamic there?

No. It's more -- why it's related more specifically to the schedule is that, for example, in one of our markets, we lost on the prospect as we couldn't deliver the building in accordance with their timeline. So it's not a pushback on rent. I think it's just meeting the prospective tenants time lines, which is impacting leasing.

Okay. So have you otherwise noticed any changes in terms of tenant interest or activity for new space? What it looks like today versus maybe a couple of quarters ago?

No. Frankly, not at all. And we continue to see rents across our development properties rise. So no, we have not seen a drop-off in demand. And as a matter of fact, I think there's probably more urgency in getting in the space than it was, say, 3 or 4 months ago.

Okay. And then I just wanted to confirm that for the recent development completions in Germany, Fort Worth and Mississauga expansion. If any partial NOI from those is included in this year's FFO guidance? Or is that more of a 2023 impact?

It's more -- it's more of a 2023 impact, but there will be a little bit in FFO coming from the Dallas Fort Worth lease, but it's not significant this year and a little bit coming from the Altbach leasing.

We'll get our next question on the line is Mark Rothschild with Canaccord Genuity.

Maybe focusing on the cap rates and the fair values. It appears that you've you're looking at different regions differently, whether it's Canada versus the U.S. and Europe. I assume it's not based too much on acquisitions that have already occurred, but maybe just if you can expand on that or just based on what you're seeing in the market and how you anticipate value settling or changing?

Well, it is based on transaction data. And I think as we look across our different markets, it's not a surprise to us that pricing or, I would say, pricing behavior has manifested itself more quickly in the U.S. So I think we've moved metrics more quickly in the U.S. because that's what we've seen. And so I would think maybe a lot of the heavy lifting on the moves we've already done in the U.S. And with respect to Europe and the GTA, there may be further moves here more than we would see in the U.S. in the third quarter and perhaps the fourth quarter. So I think it's just the fact that it's moved quicker, change in behavior or moved quicker in the U.S. So we've adjusted our metrics more quickly there as well.

So obviously, fundamentals are extremely strong in markets such as the GTA. Are you saying that you still expect there to be maybe some moving cap rates in the GTA.

Yes, I think so. And as we think about it, it will be further adjustments in value in the third quarter. I would expect that there would be, I think, but you have to mitigate that with the fact that NOIs and market rents are rising as well. So exactly what that looks like, I don't know. Would I expect the adjustments to be larger in the third quarter than what we saw in a second? I don't think so. Could it be less? Yes. Could it be similar in size? Yes, it could be. So to your point, I think that if there are further adjustments, there'd be more in Canada and Europe than it would be in our portfolio in the U.S.

I'll get our next question on the line is from Himanshu Gupta with Scotiabank.

So just on the asset dispositions announced, can you elaborate like what was sold, what kind of CapEx were realized and how did you select those assets?

Well, for competitive reasons, we don't want to go into the specific assets at all or even the markets, not at all. But I would say is with the combination of the U.S. and Canada and by value, it's more biased towards the U.S. I think as we stated on the last call, Himanshu, we're picking these assets. There are a couple of factors that come into consideration. One is your exposure to a singular submarket and whether you feel your concentration is a bit high, that's number one. Number two, if you've added value to the asset and the growth profile has changed, then it may be worth consideration for us to move on from that asset. So those are how we're looking at our disposition program. I hope that answers your question.

Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe building on that on capital allocation. I mean, obviously, you were active on NCIB front as well and looks like more asset dispositions are in the hopper. So how do you prioritize capital allocation between acquisition developments and buyback here?

Well, I think we were active on the NCIB. We chose not to put in place an automatic buyback program during our (inaudible). And I think the reason for that is we're happy with the strength of our balance sheet and our liquidity, and we want to keep it that way. So moving forward, I think it's -- the focus is much more on executing on the development program, executing on select dispositions and making sure that we're maintaining the strength of our balance sheet and our liquidity. So that's our focus until the end of this year. Not to say that we won't necessarily participate in an NCIB as we're moving forward. but our top 2 priorities are the development program and liquidity in the balance sheet.

Got it. And then maybe just talking about development program. So I see Brantford, you know, the lease, I think probably you mentioned significantly above pro forma. So what kind of rents were you underwriting? And what did you end up achieving on the Brantford.

I think we were in the sort of $7.50 originally. I think I'm going back probably just over a year ago, it's hard to believe, say, 12 to 16 months ago, I think we were in the $7.50 to $8 range. And all say is on this, it was north of $10 a square foot.

Okay. So that's pretty very meaningful (inaudible). And then maybe one more question here again on the development. So I'm looking at the 2 properties in Indiana, I think around 1 million square feet to be completed by end of the year. And I see the expected yield was increased to 5.6% from 5% last quarter. What was the reason for that, just wondering.

We continue to see rents climb. And so I would say that we are anticipating achieving a rent roughly 20% or more above original pro forma, which is causing the yields to rise.

Okay. Okay. So better finance being underwritten. Okay from that side. And maybe just last question, more of a clarification. So I think what's your -- like some vacancy in the U.S., again 2 vacancies in the U.S. side. Can you just elaborate on that? And when do you expect the back (inaudible)?

Yes, I think it was 2, one 250,000 feet, one 86,000 feet. And those are the 2 that I mentioned on that we're in discussions currently on. So those were 2 in the U.S. that happened in the quarter.

And okay, did you mention that you were expecting 60% higher rents over the expiry rents. Did you mention that as well?

I think I said 50%, but yes. You're in the ballpark.

We'll get our next question on the line from Matt Kornack with National Bank Financial.

Just to follow up on the leasing side. I think you had also mentioned that there was the potential for some turnover at an asset in Pennsylvania, but there was some question as to whether it would be held over. Is there any update on that front? Or should we expect something in the balance of the year? And have you leased that space or you're in the process of leasing it?

We have. So if you recall, I think the tenant, I think the original expiry was in April this year, the tenant exercised the right to stay in the space for 6 months. And since then, they have exercised, I think, a 5-year renewal with us, so it was due to expire, I think, at the end of October, but now they have renewed in that space for 5 years.

Okay. So -- and they were thinking of potentially expanding elsewhere? Was that the idea and they've just decided to...

The interesting thing is they have -- so they're under contract and another larger facility in our area, they've decided to hang on to both facilities for the time being because they need more space, which I think is a very encouraging sign for us and something we've seen generally in the market. I think a lot of the -- if you look at -- I only touch briefly upon sort of the leasing metrics. But if you look at the leasing metrics in the U.S. for the first half of the year, it's been pretty dominated by larger bay absorption. And so I think our asset was very much in demand. And I think the tenant, frankly, at the end of the day, didn't want to let it go. And that's something we've seen kind of across our markets. So demand for large bay, anything over 700,000 square feet remains very high.

Interesting. And would that have been captured in the $1.6 million of renewals at 27% rent spreads. And maybe if you could just speak to the geography or geographic breakdown of that $1.6 million and relative spreads, that would be helpful.

Yes, the $1.6 million did include that 5-year renewal. And I would say that the $1.6 million, the vast majority of that was in the U.S.

Okay. so good stats coming out of the U.S. So clearly -- and I think it's been referenced, but this Amazon phenomenon may not necessarily be impacting the market to the extent the market is adjusting value expectations, at least from a public trading standpoint?

No, I would agree with that. And I would think what's interesting is we've been monitoring the market pretty closely to see what Amazon is doing. And there are so far almost 0, it's negligible, the number of assets that Amazon is actually looking to sublease.

So despite their comments on the call, I don't want to call their CEO or CFO, but they are not actively looking to sublease existing space, not that we've seen anyways in our markets.

Okay. That's very helpful color. And then Teresa, just a quick one with regards to the new approach to FFO on the compensation side, you're not going to restate prior quarters. It's just going to be an adjustment going forward. Is that correct?

Yes, that's correct. Yes.

So the numbers won't be off, your numbers going forward, which is nice.

Yes.

We'll get our next question on the line is from Gaurav Mathur, Industrial Alliance Capital.

A couple of quick questions at my end. So firstly, we've seen some price discovery mechanisms happen across industrial markets of either side of the pond, even though there is still a very high demand of assets. Very quickly, in your opinion, do you think we're closer to finding a tentative flow price? Or is there still some ways to go, given that underwriting remains strong and rents continue to grow?

It's a great question. It does feel to us like we are near the end, but it does also depend very much on how far the central banks go and how persistent inflation is. A couple of things I would say is to support the fact that we could see a stabilization of pricing or even an increase in pricing for the end of the year. Number one, and not that we're in the habit of surveying competitors, but we're in discussions with major investors in industrial real estate relatively regularly. And we're not hearing any plans to wait until 2023 to deploy capital. So I think there's still a fair amount of capital on the sidelines that wants to be in this market before the end of the year, and they expect the central banks or the central bank interest rates to start stabilizing in the next 2 to 3 months and then be active.

And number two is there is still this continuing, what would you say, this willingness to transact at yields that are below prevailing interest rates and to grow into accretion. So those are the 2 things that we're hearing and seeing that would support a stabilization and perhaps a return to lower cap rates and higher prices before the end of the year. But it's hard to say it depends so much on where inflation and the corresponding interest rates go.

Of course. And I know it's a hard exercise that it's not a fair question, but just given the strength in underwriting, one has to think about how close we are to that flow price versus what the market seems to be coming off.

I'm not sure I really -- sorry, Gaurav. I'm not sure I really heard the question.

Sorry, I was just saying that given the underwriting demand and the strong growth in underwriting, it seems to me that you're closer to finding the flow price and what the market make us think it is.

I agree with that, too, because I think if you look at all the noise in the second quarter, one was rising interest rates and inflation. But the other one also was from what Amazon said was what's going to happen in the leasing market fundamentals, which really is what we spend a lot more time on is what are the market fundamentals, the real estate fundamentals there. And I think what is giving people encouragement in our sector is the continued strength in demand for modern logistics distribution. So I'm agreeing with you for those points, I think that you could see a return in investment demand and activity before the end of the year.

Great. And just switching to leasing. And there's quite a bit of lease renewals that are coming up in 2023. How should investors think about leasing costs beyond the end of the year and as we look forward to all that leasing velocity that hopefully comes back in sooner than expected?

Yes. I think we have almost 15% rolling next year, which we are happy about. 2/3 of that is in the U.S. And then I think roughly 30% is in Europe and 4% or 4.5% in the GTA. So overall, we're projecting between a 15% and 20% lift in rents on those renewals. So we're encouraged by the early sort of leasing discussions activity we're seeing in 2023.

(Operator Instructions)

Our next question on the line is from Pammi Bir with RBC Capital Markets.

Just coming back to maybe the occupancy slip in the quarter. Aside from the developments, were any of those vacancies that came through? Were any of them unexpected? Or were they all pretty much known.

Yes. So we had one bankruptcy. I think we mentioned on the first quarter call in May, we had a small tenant bankruptcy New Jersey -- sorry, in New Jersey, that was just under 90,000 square feet. So that was unexpected in the quarter.

Got it. And then just, Kevan, maybe coming back to your outlook commentary with respect to the organic growth. You mentioned you expect to finish at the upper end of the range by the end of the year. Just to clarify, is the bulk of that really coming from the occupancy or the leases that you talked about that would kind of get you to above 90%, 99% or just given where you're tracking, I guess, currently just at the low end of the range. So just any color there would be helpful.

Yes. What I was -- I think we were pretty clear with respect to 2022, we expected Q1 and Q4 to be our strongest quarters in terms of same-property NOI. We expected 2 and 3 to be positive, but impacted by potential turnover. And that's kind of what we saw in the first -- sorry, in the second quarter at 3.6%. So we expect Q3 to be stronger, and we expect Q4 to be very strong. So to be clear, when I look at the average over the 4 quarters, we expect to be really between 4% and 4.5% on average for those quarters with Q3 to be better than Q2 and Q4 to be our strongest quarter.

Got it. Just last one. Again, nice to see some progress on the Brantford site. Now that, that first deal is done, can you share if there's any additional pipeline of demand there may be on the back of this first rather large lease getting done?

Yes. There have been discussions on remaining opportunities on the site to a degree where we're actually tweaking our design to look at building something larger than we originally anticipated. So very early days, but there has been poor activity and a few discussions underway. So there's a very good chance next year. We launched more than the first building that we mentioned. It could be a second building that we develop or begin to develop in 2023.

Interesting. And just any color on the types of tenants looking at that site?

We're looking at wholesalers. We're looking at -- I think one of the trends we've seen is, as I mentioned, in the U.S., we're looking at tenants that want to build more resiliency into their supply chain. So that's putting upward pressure on demand. We're also seeing onshoring where producers of products need to be more local like we've seen with Barry Callebaut in Brantford. So it's been a real mix of manufacturers and wholesalers and distributors and retailers. So it's been across the board.

And the unlevered yield that you quoted on the first building, was that better than what you had initially expected or kind of in line?

It was much better.

We'll get our next question on the line of Sam Damiani with TD Securities.

Congratulations on the lease in Brantford. Most of my questions have been answered. Just wanted to really get your -- see how you're thinking about acquisitions. Clearly, development is preferred over acquisitions at the moment. But what would it take for Granite to pick up the basin and resume pursuit of acquisitions?

Well, assuming our liquidity and balance sheet in the position that we wanted to be -- I mean we want to be able to move from defense to offense very quickly. That's why we think about liquidity all the time, partially why we think about liquidity all the time. So if there is distress, we would like to take advantage of that situation. And we saw it, I think, in 2020. I mean, let's be honest, we transacted on 3 assets/portfolios in the GTA in the middle of 2020 when no one was looking at it, and we bought about $100 million worth of assets at $160 a foot, $165 a foot on average. And no one really pays attention to that.

So if there are similar opportunities like that in front of us, that would be compelling. With that cap rate exactly looks like today, I don't want to say or speculate. But those would be the conditions that would be interesting to us, Sam, in terms of putting out money on IPP.

Next question is a follow-up question from the line of Himanshu Gupta, Scotiabank.

Sorry, just one follow-up here. On the cost of financing, I think Teresa, you mentioned you're looking to do a 3-year term loan financing. What is the expected interest rate on that? And would you also consider like accessing the unsecured debenture market here?

Yes. So we're looking at both markets, but really, right now, the term loan market is more favorable. So that's looking like low 4% range right now, which is a little bit higher than what we're borrowing right now in our credit facility. So let's call it, low 4.10%, 4.20%.

Okay. And I'm assuming that you don't have any space for doing euro swap at this point of time.

Not at this time. So if we were to initiate a loan, it would be in U.S. dollars and act as a hedge in our U.S. net investment.

Got it. Fair enough. And then I think debenture renewal, the big one is not coming due until November of next year. So are you going to wait or are you monitoring the market at the same time?

That's right. We're monitoring the market right now. We are always holding back simply because there is a fairly significant prepayment penalty that we would have to incur. So -- but now with the rising interest rates in the 1, 2 years that it's that prepayment penalties come down quite a bit. So we're going to look at it for a good opportunity. But right now, I still say spreads are probably wider than I like. And obviously, the underlying treasuries are where they are, but although improved, so -- but it is something I'm going to keep my eye on, yes, in the next quarter or first quarter of 2023.

Ms. Gorrie, there are no further questions at this time, I'll turn it back to you for any closing remarks.

Great. Thank you, Tommy. Well, I just want to say thank you for everyone that participated on the call today and look forward to speaking with you on our Q3 call in November. Take care.

Thank you very much, and thank you, everyone. That does conclude the call for today. We thank you for your participation. Please disconnect your lines. Have a good day everyone.