Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd (GRIN) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Grindrod Conference Call on the second half and full year 2020 Financial Results. We have with us Mr. Martyn Wade, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Stephen Griffiths, Chief Financial Officer of the company. (Operator Instructions)

I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. We now pass the floor to one of your speakers today, Mr. Wade. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining our call for the second half and full year 2020 ended December 31, 2020. Let me start by referring you to Slide #2 with the forward-looking statement disclaimer.

On this call, we will make certain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding our future financial and operating performance. These statements include information regarding future time charter contracts, outlooks for the drybulk and tanker markets and other operating matters. These statements are based on the beliefs and expectations of management as of today.

Our actual results may differ materially from our expectations. Investors should read carefully the risks and uncertainties described in the slide presentation and in today's press release as well as the risk factors included in our annual report and our other filings within -- with the SEC.

We assume no obligation to revise or update forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

In addition, during this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Additional disclosures relating to these non-GAAP financial measures, including a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please see yesterday's press release and Pages 28 and 29 of the slide deck, which is posted on our website and our filings with the SEC.

So to start, please turn to Slide 4, the second half and full year 2020 financial highlights. Financial results for the second half of 2020 declined compared to the previous year due to coronavirus market impacts. Revenue in the second half of 2020 was $112.1 million compared to $163.8 million in the second half of 2019. Gross profit declined to $6.2 million in the second half of 2020 from $14.6 million in the second half of 2019. Adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2020 decreased to $18.5 million compared to $25 million in the second half of 2019.

Net loss attributable to owners of the company increased to $28.3 million in the second half of 2020 and $24.5 million in the second half of 2019. Loss per share was $1.49 in the second half of 2020 compared to the loss per share of $1.29 in the second half of 2019. For the full year, while revenue and gross profit declined, adjusted EBITDA and net loss improved year-over-year.

Let me now discuss the key drivers that affected our performance during this period. In the second half of 2020, our focus has been on navigating the continuing market effects of the COVID-19 pandemic while completing the streamlining of our corporate structure and taking advantage of favorable refinancing opportunities. Despite the extensive operational challenges caused by the pandemic and the exceptionally weak drybulk markets, we managed to continue our commercial outperformance.

With the consummation of the IVS Bulk transaction during the first half of 2020 and disposal of the IVS Triview in November 2020, the streamlining of our corporate structure was completed. All loan vessels are currently consolidated compared to 19 vessels held in unconsolidated joint ventures in June 2018 when we initially went public. We further modernized our drybulk fleet with the delivery of 2 Japanese new-built ultramax eco vessels, the IVS Pebble Beach and the IVS Atsugi under long-term charters-in with purchase options while disposing of 2 older handysize vessels.

Leveraging our long-standing relationship with leading Japanese industry participants in December 2020, we concluded a sale and leaseback transaction under attractive terms for one of our product tankers. This transaction enabled us to refinance an impending maturity and repay early $10 million on one of our senior secured credit facilities, thereby reducing our average interest rate and materially reducing our remaining scheduled maturities in 2021.

Let's turn to Slide 5 to look at fleet development in the second half of the year. On July 9, we delivered the 2013-built long-term chartered-in medium range tanker Doric Breeze. On December (sic) [September] 2, we sold the 2004-built handysize drybulk vessel, IVS Nightjar, for a gross price of $5.1 million.

September 15, we took delivery of a Japanese-built eco ultramax drybulk carrier, IVS Pebble Beach, and a long-term charter for a minimum period of 2 years and options to extend for up to 2 additional years and purchase the vessel in the future.

November 2, 2020, we sold the 2009-built handysize drybulk vessel, IVS Triview, for a gross price of $7.9 million. The vessel was owned by a joint venture, in which we held a 51% share.

On November 15, we agreed to extend the charterparty relating to IVS Pinehurst for period of 11 to 13 months with an option to extend for a further 11 to 13 months and retain the purchase option. December 23, we continue the modernization and growth of our drybulk fleet and took delivery of a Japanese-built eco ultramax drybulk carrier, IVS Atsugi, on a long-term charter for a minimum period of 2 years and options to extend for up to 2 additional years and purchase the vessel in the future.

Now please turn to Slide 6 to discuss highlights of the company's financial developments. Steve?

Thanks, Martyn. On December 1, 2020, a loan of $4 million provided by Grindrod Shipping for IVS Bulk was converted to equity, thereby increasing our shareholding by 2.11% in IVS Bulk from 66.75% to 68.86%. The loan was initially provided on September 30, 2020, with interest calculated at LIBOR plus 3.1%.

On December 22, 2020, leveraging our long-standing relationships with leading Japanese industry participants, we completed a financing arrangement with the Japanese shipowner relating to the 2016-built medium range product tanker, Matuku, from which we received cash proceeds of $26.8 million. The transaction generated net proceeds of $9.3 million after effecting the debt associated with the vessel, and were utilized, together with cash on hand, to repaid $10 million of the $35.8 million senior secured credit facility with Sankaty.

On December 30, 2020, the parties to the relevant agreement entered into amendments to our $100 million senior secured credit facility, our $29.9 million senior secured credit facility and our $114.1 million senior secured credit facility, respectively, to reduce the book value net worth covenant to be tested as of the 31st of December 2020 from $240 million to $225 million.

We increased the debt to market adjusted tangible fixed assets covenant from not more than 75% to not more than 80% as of the 31st of December 2020, and to exclude from the determination of current liabilities in the covenant that requires our current assets to exceed our current liabilities the amount owed to Sankaty under the $35.8 million senior secured loan -- credit facility for purposes of testing as of December 31, 2020.

On Slide 7, we will go over reason -- recent developments. I'll hand over back to Martyn.

Thanks, Steve. We have agreed to extend the charter-in of the 2014-built Japanese eco supramax vessel, the IVS Crimson Creek, for a period of 11 to 13 months from April 1, 2021, at a variable rate based on the BSI-58 TC Index with both a floor and a ceiling.

Now turning to Slide 8. This slide illustrates our historical commercial outperformance in both of our core segments, the handysize and Supramax/Ultramax sectors. A second half 2020 Supramax/Ultramax TCE per day was $10,887 a day versus $9,811 a day for the BSI-58, an outperformance of $1,076 per day or 11%.

Our 2020 full year Supramax/Ultramax TCE per day was $10,072 vs $7,779 a day for the BSI-58, an outperformance of $2,293 a day or 30%. Please note that as of January 1, 2020, the Baltic Exchange discontinued publishing the Baltic Handysize-28 TC Index and posted it with the Baltic Handysize-38 TC Index. The new Handysize-38 TC Index no longer reflects the ship types comparable to our handysize fleet, and therefore, we do not believe it is an appropriate benchmark for our fleet going forward.

Sorry. Excuse me. Now I'll pass the floor over again to Steve Griffiths, our Chief Financial Officer, who will go over financial highlights and performance for the second half of 2020. Steve?

Thanks, Martyn. Let's turn to Slide 10. Revenue was $112.1 million for the 6 months ended 31st of December 2020 compared to $163.8 million for the same period in 2019. Cost of sales was $105.9 million for the 6 months ended 31st of December 2020, down from $149.2 million for the same period in 2019. Gross profit declined to $6.2 million for the 6 months ended December 31, 2020, from $14.6 million for the same period in 2019.

We were able to reduce our administrative expenses to $12.4 million for the 6 months ended December 31, 2020, from $15.1 million for the same period in 2019. Interest expense was $8.3 million for the 6 months ended December 31, 2020, and $6.1 million for the same period in 2019. The increase in the 6 months ended 31st of December 2020 was primarily due to the consolidation of IVS stock in February 2020.

Loss for the 6 months ended 31st of December 2020, was $28.8 million and $24.5 million for the same period in 2019.

Aiming to effect the impacts of the freight market volatility on our performance, every $1,000 change in TCE per day equated to $5.7 million of TCE revenue during the second half of 2020.

Now turning to Slide 11. With respect to the balance sheet, we finished the year with cash, bank balances and restricted cash of $50.6 million, while bank loans and other borrowings were $278.4 million. Considering the weak markets for much of 2020, we are pleased to complete the year with increased liquidity relative to the end of 2019. As a reminder, the financial statements of the second half of 2020 include the consolidation of IVS Bulk.

On Slide 12, our debt repayment profile includes scheduled amortization payments of $27.6 million in 2021 and the remaining amount due on the Sankaty debt facility. I would like to remind you that the refinancing of Matuku and early repayments of $10 million of the senior secured credit facility with Sankaty enabled us to reduce our net interest expense, and also materially reduced our remaining scheduled maturities in 2021.

Now let's turn to Slide 13. We will now briefly discuss results in the drybulk and tanker businesses. In the drybulk business, Handysize TCE per day was $7,535 as per day for the 6 months ended December 31, 2020, and $8,551 per day for the same period in 2019. We achieved a fleet utilization of 97.1% in the second half of 2020. Vessel operating costs per day were $5,242 per day.

Supramax/Ultramax TCE per day was $10,887 per day for the 6 months ended December 31, 2020, and $13,624 per day for the same period in 2019. We achieved a fleet utilization of 97.2% in the second half of 2020. Vessel operating costs with $5,414 per day, while the long-term charter-in costs were $12,003 per day. The average long-term charter-in costs per day for the Supramax/Ultramax fleet for the first half of 2021 is expected to be approximately $12,278 per day.

As of February 22, 2021, we have contracted the following TCE per day. For Handysize, approximately 1,425 operating days at an average TCE of $10,545 per day. And for Supramax (sic) [Supramax/Ultramax] approximately 2,241 operating days at an average TCE of $12,540 per day.

On Slide 14 is the tanker segment's operational performance. In the tankers business, for medium range tankers, TCE per day was $7,960 per day for the 6 months ended 31st of December 2020, and $14,409 per day for the same period in 2019. We achieved a fleet utilization of 100% in the second half of 2020.

Vessel operating costs were $6,834 per day. As mentioned in the previous update, with the redelivery of the Doric Breeze on July 10, we currently have no long-term charter-in costs in the tanker segment.

For small tankers, TCE per day was $13,680 per day for the 6 months ended December 31, 2020, and $12,441 per day for the same period in 2019. We achieved a fleet utilization of 96.7% in the second half of 2020, with vessel operating costs at $6,391 per day. As of February 22, 2021, we have booked approximately 165 operating days at an average TCE per day of $11,757 for our tankers, which excludes the Matuku.

Passing you Slide 15. This slide shows the owned fleet cash breakeven analysis for the full year 2020. Our drybulk owned fleet cash breakeven rate for the period is $10,300 per vessel per day. Long-term charter-in breakeven was $12,980 per vessel per day, and core drybulk breakeven was $10,870 per vessel per day for the entire fleet.

Our tanker owned fleet cash breakeven rate for the year was $11,550 per vessel per day, long-term charter-in breakeven of $16,330 per vessel per day and core tanker breakeven was $12,340 per vessel per day for the tanker fleet.

The cash breakeven rate per day includes operational expenses, net G&A, interest expense and debt repayments. So with that, I'd like to turn the call back to Martyn.

Thanks, Steve. And I ask you please to turn to Slide 17. Let's look to the fundamentals of the drybulk sector and how they have been developing against the new market environment. The drybulk cargoes hit hardest by the global pandemic continue to be coal and minor bulks, while iron ore and grains have been more resilient, due respectively to Chinese stimulus measures once their lockdown was lifted and crop shortages in China due to severe flooding.

Chinese economic activity rebounded earlier than other countries, supporting drybulk trade activity since then, there's still not enough to make up for the overall declines in demand on an annual basis.

Pent-up demand is expected to lead to a more robust recovery in 2021 in both raw trade figures and shipping demand.

Now we turn to Slide 18. As the slide depicts, iron ore trade rebounded faster than expected from early 2020 declines caused by COVID-19 in China. Coal trade was also -- it also declined significantly through most of 2020, however, is projected to enjoy a solid rebound in 2021. Grain flows were robust in 2020, with further growth expected on minor bulk demand contracted less than originally expected, and is projected to rebound materially in 2021.

Looking at the minor bulks, the key business segment for Grindrod, the demand contracted less than was originally expected, and is closely tied to global GDP growth. As recent growth estimates have increased in 2021, so has that to the minor bulk sector.

Now to Slide 19. The chart on the left indicates Handysize Supramax spot TC rates have steadily increased since the summer, and rates have now risen, in particular, over the last few weeks, to the highest levels in a decade. While asset prices declined over the course of 2020, in a positive sign, values appear to be rebounding along with charter rates.

Please turn to Slide 20. The drybulk orderbook continues to shrink to multi-decade lows and is estimated only 6% of the fleet. Fleet age profile and orderbook of the Handysize/Supramax/Ultramax continue to be more favorable than the larger vessel sizes. Handysize and Supramax orderbooks are the smallest in the drybulk fleet at 3.2% and 5.3%, respectively.

20% of the drybulk fleet is 15 years or older and 10% of the drybulk fleet is 20 years or older, which combined with new environmental regulations, such as IMO 2020 and ballast water treatments, should encourage an increased scrapping. Taken together with recent positive demand flows, the constrained fleet growth outlook should be supportive to the market going forward.

Finally, please turn to Slide 21 for our conclusions and strategy. Looking at 2020, our core focus since listing has been to simplify the Grindrod Shipping story with investors to make the capital structure and operations easier for investors to track and understand. We have now concluded all of our unconsolidated joint ventures and acquired control of the IVS Bulk JV during the year while materially reducing our tanker exposure. The dry cargo market appears to have bottomed in late April, early may last year, and is now being driven by strong Chinese stimulus measures along with many world economies emerging from global lockdowns.

Product tankers temporary enjoyed high charter rates during the first half of 2020, which we were able to take advantage of in terms of cash flow and our ability to monetize tankers in the strong freight market.

Turning to 2021, drybulk freight rates have rallied thus far in 2021 and are off to one of the best starts in over a decade, as the traditional Chinese New Year slowdown has been more muted this year, together with the global economy recovering from COVID-19's demand destruction.

Strong start has been supported by rebounding commodity demand and pricing thus far in 2021 across a wide swathe of commodities, including grains, iron ore and coal. The smallest newbuilding orderbook in decades supports market recovery due to constriction in vessel supply growth as demand continues to recover.

In this environment, we believe that Grindrod Shipping is well positioned to benefit, leveraging our competitive advantages, including our modern high-quality Japanese eco fleet and our ability to maximize revenue through in-house commercial pools and cargoes.

With that, I thank you for joining our call today, and looking forward to reporting further progress on Grindrod Shipping. And with that, we'd like to open up questions. Operator?

(Operator Instructions)

Your first question comes from the line of Poe Fratt from NOBLE Capital Markets.

I'd like to ask you about just your forward cover. Looks reasonable for the first half of the year on both the Handysize and the Supramax. Can you put that in context with the recent move in the market and how you're trying to capture that move? And just how you're approaching with the 58 TC spot market above $20,000 and the -- it looks like the handy equivalent, it's closer to 15. Can you just talk about how you're trying to capture some of that move?

Thanks, Poe. Yes, it's an interesting one because obviously, we're very bullish of the market. But as we go, if you take from the beginning of the year, basically, the industry have climbed in a straight line. And obviously, we had some -- quite a lot of ships covered November, December into January. So as those ships come open, we capitalize on the market as it was in January into February. And while we're our spot market traders, with a small element of contract cover, we are also looking to secure a little bit of forward cover.

When I say forward cover, 3 to 5, 4 to 6 months because as we know, we're shipping, it's so volatile. And while I'm a believer, you never know what might happen. So what we've been doing is we've been increasing the earnings of the ships. Obviously, the figures we're now reporting are up until, as Steve said, 22nd of February.

If you look at the fixtures and what we're doing going into March and into April, they are substantially higher again as we capitalize on the market. So a combination of spot, yes, Supramax Index of $20,000 -- the hand is, but also the period rates have been very good. So what we're doing is we're just averaging up, capitalizing as much as we can on spot, while also having one eye on -- now if you're being offered $15,000, $16,000 on a handy for 3 to 5 months, you've kind of got to say thank you very much and fix 1 or 2 of them out at those levels and keep on averaging up as we go forward.

So from an owner's perspective, it's wonderful after 10 years, and it's a nice position to be in. And I think as we're seeing today, the paper selling off a little bit. And no doubt that there will be people out there trying to talk it down. So I think it's a combination of being supremely bullish times, but also taking some money off the table and fixing ever higher levels as we go forward.

And then, I guess, a second question on that, Martyn would be you mentioned the paper market. And it seems like a lot of the upward movement might have been driven by the paper market. So can you just stress some of the durability of the high-rate environment, what you think -- how much longer you think it will last?

Shifting as somewhat cyclical, it's been maybe the secular trends are a little more positive this year, and you have gotten that black swan event that you've gotten over the last 2 years, whether it's coronavirus or the Vale Dam and the year before. But can you just talk about the durability and sort of what -- how you're thinking about -- you talked about your chartering strategy a little bit. But just from a macro standpoint, just how long do you think this will last?

Well, it is interesting. And actually, I would argue that the physical led the paper as we came into the year that the forward curve on Supramax was -- I don't even think it was even in double digits. And of course, we had pure backwardation. And I think what's happened, of course, is that the paper has, of course, caught up, but very much on the short term. If you're looking forward, it's in severe backwardation now, which is always very positive.

So I think it's charters that are used to minimizing their risks by looking at the paper, taking trips have been forced to pay up on the paper as owners increase their levels. So yes, that the papers are huge vast market, far bigger than the freight. But ultimately, is the freight market that will dictate those rates. And I think we're in a position where the physical will have to lead the way. From a macro perspective, what I've been saying for a while, it -- in the old days, we had -- or recently, we had just in time -- so we had just in time stockpiles.

Now we're getting just in case stockpiles as countries throughout the world, after what's happened, can't afford to let stockpiles dry up. Obviously, as I said, we've had massive floods in China last year, and they've been buying record amounts of U.S. grain actually on a par with what the Russians did after -- has been very positive. You add in the trade spat between China and Australia with coal, where China refusing to buy Australian coal.

So they're buying from the U.S. and Canada, Colombia, the Black Sea, i.n the meantime, Australian coal became very cheap. So Australia began importing it into India, which was South Africa's normal market. So that South Africa is now shipping to China. And of course, coal is going to Europe. And you overlay that this time of year with the La Niña weather effects, which has ended up with a brutally cold winter, as you saw in your part of the world recently and throughout Europe, and in particular, in China and Korea and Japan, which has caught them short on coal.

So in that respect, it's been the perfect storm. And going forward, we're playing catch up. The seaborne trade is still growing. And if we play catch up from last year, it obviously declined at 1% or 2%. No was quite sure of the figures. And this year, if we then grow back again at 3%, 4% against fleet growth of a couple of percent, it's very positive. You add-in that congestion is growing. The issues for some owners, the ESG is going to bring with older ships. We have high bunker prices, which is very positive, not that we have scrubbers, but for the rest of us, it means slow steaming.

And all in all, I think it's a very, very positive outlook, which after 10 years, I think we're entitled to, and it's now at the time of drybulk shipping again. And yes, you never know, as you say, Black swan events, and I don't want to jinx anything, but the supply demand figures, what's going on in the world. And all we can hope for now is that President Biden starts on some infrastructure spending. Then it will get very exciting.

Great. Can you just talk about the factors that you see that have limited the order book growth, and then the fact is that should mute that order book growth in looking out a couple of years?

Yes. It's -- the auto is very positive. There are no orders out there. Obviously, no one has any cash after 10 years of an awful market. Allied to the fact that with new rules, regulations, you've got to be a brave owner if you're going to order a new building now for delivery in 18 months, 2 years, with, in effect, a fuel oil burning engine, which could well be redundant. As long as we trade ships for 20, 25 years, it could be redundant in 10 years.

And you add on that, whether there's going to be problems with port, state, countries, insurance issues. So that is a natural cap. Allied to the fact that there are a lot of our eastern yards, the capacity has reduced a lot, can't afford to build ships of the future. So it's kind of chicken and egg. We need a better market for us owners to actually go and order the ships and what the ships are going to be.

I mean, even at our side, it's not LNG. Is it ammonia? Is it biofuels? Is it going to be hydrogen in 10 years? And I think that, for the time being, is going to keep a natural cap on it. Now will the lemmings flow to the yards? Again, if we get a seriously hot market, I have no doubt. But what's positive is that, that order book can't change for the next couple of years, and that is very positive. And in 2 years' time, where is the world going to be in terms of regulation, existing technology will be moved on. So I think it's very much a wait and see attitude.

And we have enough ships out there. So if anyone wants ships, they can buy secondhand.

Understood. Can we talk about a little bit more at the micro, if you could give us an idea of sort of how your cost structure -- your operating cost structure looks over the first half of 2021, and then highlight any potential downtime that you might have over the course of the year?

Steve?

Martyn, yes, I'll take this. Yes, just a bit of background, yes, Poe, in terms of what we've done already in our salary-related expenses makes up around 64% of our total expenses. Since December 2018, we've reduced our salary bulk by 18%. Admin expenses have reduced from 2020 by 13%. Our net G&A costs have also reduced by 13%.

And clearly, with, let's say, the sale of the tankers, there will be further reductions in our costs in 2021, once those 3 vessels have been sold. So as I say, G&A has come down from $1,180 to $1,030 and we see that reducing further in 2021.

Great. And any downtime?

Yes. We had certain issues last year. We -- obviously, with corona, and that still goes on, where we're actually planning -- we were obviously living in Asia, we were aware of corona or COVID by middle of January. So we kind of went into survival mode and what we need to do with the ships and planning the crews.

And I got to give credit to all our marine staff and operations. We -- I think we've handled that pretty well. There were a couple of issues with a couple of ships with the changeover from heavy fuel oil to low sulfur where there was -- with actually 3 ships where there was an issue with the engines, which took us a couple of months to sort out. But going forward now, I would like to think that the downtime should be okay. And it's us is perennial COVID panning forward for crew changes and making sure that whatever delays there are minimized.

Okay. Great.

If I can add to that -- sorry, if I can just add to that, we brought ourselves on being as close to 100% fleet utilization as close to that as possible. And this year, because of all the reasons that Martyn has just discussed, we've been at 97% in 3 of our sectors. So we do look to close the gap back towards at 100% over the coming year.

Great. And then if you could just talk about how you're going to address the -- you paid off $10 million of the roughly $36 million on the subordinated debt. And just can you talk about how you're going to address that maturity this year?

So the tankers -- as we exit the tanker business, we have 2 MRs and $16,500. The MRs have been on the market. Obviously, that market is pretty appalling in terms of values. But we have a price in mind, which we think is realistic. The tanker market is interested in the S&P that you still get the bottom crawlers, but there are a few serious people there and everyone writes off the tanker market so quickly as they wrote off dry cargo 12 months ago. And I think some of the -- should we say, the smarter tanker owners are realizing that maybe it is going to be a tough 12 months or just maybe 6 months from now, it could be very different.

So we will sell those ships which will pay off that debt. And the way this dry cargo market is going, that we will be generating surplus cash, which we can also use it to pay down debt as well.

Yes. I mean, you do have the $41 million at the end of the year. Can you just highlight how much additional capacity you have under your any credit facilities beyond that $41 million and talk about total liquidity?

Steve?

No, we -- yes, there's no extra capacity on our current facility. If -- as far as we -- the one thing I just wanted to add to what Martyn said is that on this loan, while we have until 2021 to execute, which is the maturity date, we have got an option to extend. It's not our first prize. Our first prize is to sell these ships and pay it back that we have got flexibility if we don't get our desired price on these tankers. So that really is the flexibility that we need to the extent. And we've negotiated that already, but haven't pushed the button because we're still quite a way away from there, but we will use it if we need to.

(Operator Instructions)

Just to advise, Mr. Wade, I'm just going to reconnect Mr. Griffiths again.

Okay.

(Operator Instructions)

Sorry, sir. And Stephen Griffiths is back now. I will hand it for...

Yes. Sorry about that.

Thank you very much, sir. I will hand back for closing remarks.

Well, thank you, everyone, and appreciate you attending it. And I say that yes, I think things are hopefully looking more positive, finally. Thank you.

Thank you, everyone.

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.