Green Plains Inc (GPRE) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone. Welcome to the Green Plains third-quarter 2013 financial results conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jim Stark. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好！歡迎參加Green Plains 2013年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音中。現在，我想把電話交給Jim Stark。先生，請發言。

Thanks, Eric. Good morning and welcome to our third-quarter 2013 earnings conference call. On the call today are Todd Becker, President and CEO; Jerry Peters, our CFO; Jeff Briggs, Chief Operating Officer; and Steve Bleyl, who heads up our ethanol marketing as Executive Vice President.

謝謝，埃里克。早安，歡迎參加我們2013年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的嘉賓有：總裁兼執行長 Todd Becker、財務長傑瑞‧彼得斯 (Jerry Peters)、營運長傑夫‧布里格斯 (Jeff Briggs)，以及負責乙醇市場行銷的執行副總裁史蒂夫‧布萊爾 (Steve Bleyl)。

We are here to discuss our quarterly financial results and recent developments for Green Plains Renewable Energy. There is a slide presentation for you to follow along with as we go to our comments today. You can find this presentation on our website at www.gpreinc.com, and it's on the investor page under the events and presentations link.

我們在此討論 Green Plains Renewable Energy 的季度財務表現和近期發展。我們準備了幻燈片演示，供您在我們今天的發言環節觀看。您可以在我們的網站 www.gpreinc.com 上找到這份演示文稿，也可以在投資者頁面的「活動和演示」連結下找到。

Our comments today will contain forward looking statements which are any statements made that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of Green Plains management team and there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct.

我們今天的評論將包含前瞻性陳述，即任何非歷史事實的陳述。這些前瞻性聲明是基於Green Plains管理團隊的當前預期，我們無法保證此類預期最終會被證明是正確的。

Because forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, Green Plains actual results could differ materially from management's expectations. Please refer to page 2 of the website presentation and our 10-K and other periodic SEC filings for more information about factors that could cause different outcomes.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，Green Plains 的實際表現可能與管理層的預期有重大差異。有關可能導致不同結果的因素的更多信息，請參閱網站演示文稿第2頁以及我們定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K文件和其他文件。

The information presented today is time-sensitive, and is accurate only at this time. If any portion of this presentation is rebroadcast, retransmitted, or redistributed at a later date, Green Plains will not be reviewing or updating this material. I will now turn the call over to Todd Becker.

今天提供的資訊具有時效性，且僅在當前準確。如果本演講的任何部分日後重播、轉播或重新發布，Green Plains 將不會審核或更新此資料。現在，我將把電話轉給 Todd Becker。

Thanks, Jim. Thanks for calling in today.

謝謝，吉姆。謝謝你今天的來電。

What a difference 90 days makes. We had a solid performance in the third quarter. Since our last conference call, margins improved quicker than we expected. Now we believe the ethanol industry is on as solid of a fundamental footing as we have seen in a long time.

90天的變化真是驚人！我們第三季業績穩健。自上次電話會議以來，利潤率的成長速度超出了我們的預期。現在，我們相信乙醇產業的基本面已經達到了長期以來最穩固的水平。

During the third quarter, the demand for ethanol remained strong and the overall price structure of the core market weakened. When you look through all the noise that we hear every day, the facts are very simple.

第三季度，乙醇需求依然強勁，核心市場整體價格結構減弱。仔細審視我們每天聽到的各種聲音，事實其實很簡單。

Ethanol is trading at a significant discount to gasoline, we are on pace for a record corn crop. Conversion of starch into sugar, which is our main function, puts US ethanol in a competitive position globally as compared to our counterparts in Brazil, and domestic stocks remain very tight as evidenced by this morning's EIA data just released.

乙醇的交易價格遠低於汽油，我們的玉米產量可望創歷史新高。將澱粉轉化為糖是我們的主要業務，這使得美國乙醇在全球範圍內與巴西同行相比具有競爭力，而美國國內庫存仍然非常緊張，這一點從今天上午剛發布的美國能源資訊署（EIA）數據中可以看出。

This is the basis for our belief that we expect some continued earnings improvement in the fourth quarter.

這是我們預計第四季度獲利將繼續改善的基礎。

We were successful in raising $115 million out of fees and expenses on our 3.25% convertible bond issue in September. Our team is working diligently reviewing opportunities to deploy this growth capital. We will be disciplined in our approach and hope to start putting the capital to work very soon.

我們在9月發行了利率為3.25%的可轉換債券，成功籌集了1.15億美元，這些資金來自費用及支出。我們的團隊正在積極探索如何運用這筆成長資本。我們將嚴格遵守投資策略，並希望這筆資金能盡快投入使用。

Our focus is on accelerating our growth as we indicated in our earnings release yesterday. Later in the call we'll discuss some of those opportunities we are looking at.

正如我們昨天發布的財報中所述，我們的重點是加速成長。稍後我們將在電話會議上討論我們正在考慮的一些機會。

For the third quarter we generated net income of $9.4 million or $0.28 a share. This was a significant improvement over last year and a continuation of the sequential improvements we have seen in the last six quarters.

第三季度，我們的淨利潤為940萬美元，合每股0.28美元。這比去年同期有了顯著改善，也延續了過去六個季度持續改善的勢頭。

We produced approximately 177 million gallons of ethanol and achieved a yield of 2.83 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn. We expected our production levels will increase in the fourth quarter as we have already started to increase our daily output. All of our planned shutdowns were completed during the third quarter.

我們生產了約1.77億加侖乙醇，每蒲式耳玉米產出2.83加侖乙醇。我們預計第四季度產量將有所提升，因為我們已開始提高每日產量。所有計劃停產已於第三季完成。

In addition, we produced 42 million pounds of corn oil and have totaled 156 million pounds over the last 12 months. We are finishing up and selling corn oil extraction at our Atkinson plant in the next [month], which will add approximately 12 million pounds of corn oil production on an annual basis.

此外，我們生產了4,200萬磅玉米油，過去12個月累計產量達1.56億磅。我們位於阿特金森的工廠將於下個月完成玉米油的提取並開始銷售，這將使年產量增加約1200萬磅。

In our marketing and distribution segment, we wanted to reduce earnings volatility in our inventory positions, as the market inverses were too steep to hold large levels of stocks. BlendStar continued -- contributed solid results for the third quarter as we continue to experienced strong demand at our terminals. Our merchant trading programs were also somewhat stagnant as movement of physical products were limited due to the end of the crop year.

在行銷和分銷部門，我們希望降低庫存部位的獲利波動性，因為市場逆勢波動過大，難以維持大量庫存。 BlendStar 繼續為第三季貢獻了穩健的業績，因為我們的終端需求持續強勁。由於作物年度結束，實體產品流通受限，我們的商家交易項目也略顯停滯。

We are ready to take advantage of our physical flows and logistical assets now as the new crop harvested is underway, and we expect to see an improved result in the fourth quarter for this segment. We're still adding traders to our merchant platform and expect to see continued growth in 2014.

隨著新作物的收穫，我們已準備好充分利用現有的物流和物流資產，並預計第四季度該部門的業績將有所改善。我們仍在不斷增加商家平台的商戶，預計2014年將持續成長。

Finally keep in mind, while the number of rail cars in the crude program decreased this quarter, with the spread between WTI and Brent moving back out, we may deploy those cars ourselves and earn the return against those assets directly.

最後請記住，雖然本季原油計畫中的鐵路車輛數量有所減少，但隨著 WTI 和布倫特之間的價差回落，我們可能會自行部署這些車輛並直接從這些資產中獲得回報。

We paid the first dividend in the Company's history this quarter. This milestone was achieved after almost five years of profitability and with the expectation of a bright future ahead of us. We believe we have adequate liquidity, not only to grow the Company, but also to start to directly reward our shareholders for their patience and commitment to our long-term growth agenda.

本季度，我們派發了公司史上的首筆股利。這項里程碑的實現，源自於近五年的獲利，以及我們對未來光明前景的期盼。我們相信，我們擁有充足的流動性，不僅能夠推動公司發展，還能直接回饋股東，感謝他們對我們長期成長計畫的耐心和投入。

I will now turn the call over to Jerry, who run through our third-quarter financial performance, and then I will come back to close the call with some additional Company and industry comments.

現在我將把電話交給傑瑞，他將介紹我們第三季的財務業績，然後我將回來結束電話會議並發表一些額外的公司和行業評論。

Thanks, Todd. Good morning everybody.

謝謝，托德。大家早安。

On a consolidated basis for the third quarter, we reported revenue of $758 million, which was down 20% from a year ago primarily as a result of lower grain and agronomy sales, as well as lower ethanol volume sold.

根據第三季的綜合數據，我們的收入為 7.58 億美元，比去年同期下降了 20%，主要原因是穀物和農業銷售額下降，以及乙醇銷售下降。

Our operating income for the quarter was $25.5 million, which was a steady improvement from the last quarter and versus year ago, when we generated $8.6 million in operating income. Our Ethanol Production segment generated nearly $18 million of operating income or 56% of the total segment operating income. This was a $25 million improvement over the third quarter of 2012 and represents the best performance of our Ethanol Production segment since the fourth quarter of 2011.

本季我們的營業收入為2,550萬美元，較上一季及去年同期的860萬美元營業收入穩定成長。我們的乙醇生產部門創造了近1,800萬美元的營業收入，佔該部門總營業收入的56%。這比2012年第三季增加了2,500萬美元，是乙醇生產部門自2011年第四季以來的最佳業績。

Taking a look at slide 4 of the online presentation, you'll see that we generated operating income before depreciation in the ethanol segment of $0.16 per gallon compared to $0.02 on a per gallon basis realized in the third quarter of 2012. We generated $14.2 million of non-ethanol operating income for the quarter, which was down approximately $6.6 million versus the third quarter of 2012.

查看線上簡報的第 4 張投影片，您會發現我們在乙醇部門的折舊前營業收入為每加侖 0.16 美元，而 2012 年第三季的每加侖營業收入為 0.02 美元。本季我們創造了 1,420 萬美元的非乙醇營業收入，與 2012 年第三季相比下降了約 660 萬美元。

The decline was driven by the Agribusiness segment, which was down $5.7 million from the previous year, as a result of selling the 12 grain elevators in the fourth quarter of 2012. Just a reminder here, the Agribusiness contribution in the third quarter of 2012 was unusually strong due to the early harvest in that year.

下降的主要原因是農業綜合企業部門，由於 2012 年第四季度出售了 12 台穀物升降機，該部門的收入比去年減少了 570 萬美元。需要提醒的是，由於 2012 年收穫較早，農業綜合企業在 2012 年第三季的貢獻異常強勁。

As you look at Agribusiness segment revenues, you may be surprised to see an increase of $103 million or 59% over last year. This increase, as I explained in the second quarter conference call, is due to the realignment of our grain operations with our Ethanol Production segment, where we originated approximately 43.5 million bushels of corn, or about 70% of the Ethanol Production segment's feedstock requirement. That compares to 6.2 million bushels originated, or approximately 11% of the segment's grain requirements in the third quarter of 2012.

看看農業綜合業務部門的收入，你可能會驚訝地發現，該部門的收入比去年增加了1.03億美元，增幅達59%。正如我在第二季電話會議上所解釋的那樣，這一增長是由於我們的穀物業務與乙醇生產部門進行了重組。我們在該部門種植了約4,350萬蒲式耳的玉米，約佔乙醇生產部門原料需求的70%。相較之下，2012年第三季我們種植了620萬蒲式耳的玉米，約佔該部門穀物需求的11%。

Gross margins per bushel in this segment are down as we charge a nominal fee for direct grain origination into our own ethanol plants. In addition to this origination fee, the Agribusiness segment will earn normal elevator margins on the 17.7 million bushels of seasonal shortage capacity at our ethanol plants and our elevators. As a result, with a good harvest in process, we expect an improved contribution from this segment in the fourth quarter, compared earlier quarters of 2013.

該部門每蒲式耳的毛利率有所下降，因為我們對直接將穀物運送至我們自己的乙醇工廠收取像徵性的費用。除此費用外，農業綜合業務部門還將從我們乙醇工廠和自有倉庫的1770萬蒲式耳季節性短缺產能中獲得正常的倉庫利潤。因此，隨著豐收的到來，我們預計該部門在第四季度的貢獻將比2013年同期有所提高。

The marketing and distribution segment was down about $2.7 million from last year, primarily as a result of the reduction in income generated by our trading and logistics business, due to our reduced inventory positions and lower merchant trading activities that Todd mentioned earlier.

行銷和分銷部門比去年下降了約 270 萬美元，主要是由於我們的貿易和物流業務產生的收入減少，這是由於我們的庫存減少和 Todd 之前提到的商戶交易活動減少造成的。

Although we had strong income from our railcar program, we do expect to see this contribution decline in future quarters. Since the peak at June 30, we have had about 250 railcars coming out of our crude oil transportation program. As Todd mentioned, spreads have increased somewhat recently, so there may be an ongoing opportunity for these cars, but most likely, not as significant as in the past.

儘管我們的軌道車輛專案收入強勁，但我們預計未來幾季的貢獻將會下降。自6月30日達到高峰以來，我們的原油運輸專案已交付約250輛軌道車輛。正如Todd所提到的，近期價差有所擴大，因此這些車輛可能仍有機會持續獲利，但很可能不如過去那麼顯著。

Operating income from corn oil production was strong, coming in at $9.6 million in the third quarter, which was $1.8 million higher than what we reported in the third quarter of 2012. The higher operating income was the result of a 13% increase in corn oil production volume as well as slightly higher prices realized for the third quarter this year versus 2012. Our yield from corn oil production increased to a record 0.71 pounds per bushel in the quarter.

玉米油生產的營業收入表現強勁，第三季達到 960 萬美元，比我們報告的 2012 年第三季高出 180 萬美元。營業收入增加是由於玉米油產量增加了 13%，以及今年第三季的售價與 2012 年相比略有上漲。本季度，我們的玉米油生產產量增加至創紀錄的每蒲式耳 0.71 磅。

Interest expense declined approximately $2.2 million in the third quarter of 2013 compared to year ago due to a reduction in the average outstanding debt balance that we've had.

由於平均未償還債務餘額減少，2013 年第三季的利息支出與去年同期相比下降了約 220 萬美元。

Our income tax expense was $7.6 million for the quarter, which was higher than our expected 38.5% effective tax rate as a result of some adjustments to discrete items in our book tax expense.

本季我們的所得稅費用為 760 萬美元，由於我們對帳面稅費中的單項項目進行了一些調整，高於我們預期的 38.5% 的有效稅率。

So net income improved by $10.4 million from a year ago, coming in at $9.4 million or $0.28 per diluted share.

因此，淨收入比去年同期增加了 1,040 萬美元，達到 940 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.28 美元。

Earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization or EBITDA was $37.4 million for the 2013 third quarter compared to $21.7 million in the third quarter of last year. On a trailing 12-month basis, EBITDA totaled approximately $173.5 million, including a $47 million gain on the sale of the grain elevators in the fourth quarter of 2012.

2013年第三季息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）為3,740萬美元，去年同期為2,170萬美元。過去12個月，EBITDA總計約1.735億美元，其中包括2012年第四季出售穀物升降機的4,700萬美元收益。

On to the balance sheet. As Todd mentioned, we completed a $120 million convertible notes offering in September. The notes will mature in October 2018 and will bear interest at a fixed rate of 3.25% for year. The initial conversion rate is equivalent to a stock price of approximately $20.85 per share.

再來看看資產負債表。正如Todd所提到的，我們在9月完成了1.2億美元的可轉換債券發行。這些債券將於2018年10月到期，年利率為3.25%。初始轉換率相當於每股約20.85美元的股價。

The notes are similar to those we issued in 2010 except that they contain an option for net share settlement, which means that if the notes are converted, we may settle that conversion in shares of our stock in cash or a combination of both. As a result, the accounting for these notes is different than our 5.75% notes that we issued in 2010.

這些票據與我們2010年發行的票據類似，但包含淨股份結算選項，這意味著如果票據轉換，我們可以透過現金或股票形式或兩者結合的方式結算。因此，這些票據的會計處理方式與我們2010年發行的5.75%票據不同。

Under GAAP, we are required to separately account for the equity and debt features of the new notes. The equity feature, which is essentially the $20.85 call option on our stock, is treated as equity. The rest is treated as a liability which is based on the discounted value of the note payments, using a discount rate that approximates our straight borrowing rate.

根據美國公認會計準則 (GAAP)，我們需要分別核算新票據的股權和債務部分。股權部分，本質上是每股 20.85 美元的股票看漲期權，被視為股權。其餘部分則被視為負債，該負債基於票據付款的折現值，採用的折現率接近我們的直接借款利率。

The amount of the equity component is approximately $24.5 million, with the balance, $95.5 million, classified as debt on our balance sheet. While the accounting is a little bit more complicated, we believe the flexibility of the future settlement options may be valuable to us.

股權部分金額約2,450萬美元，餘額9,550萬美元在我們的資產負債表中被歸類為債務。雖然會計處理略微複雜，但我們相信未來結算方案的靈活性可能對我們很有價值。

If you turn to slide 8, I would like to walk you through a few highlights of our balance sheet. Net debt, as of September 30, 2013, has been reduced to approximately $189 million, the lowest in our history. In the third quarter, we paid approximately $12 million in principal on our ethanol term debt.

請翻到第8張投影片，我想向您介紹我們資產負債表的幾個亮點。截至2013年9月30日，淨債務已降至約1.89億美元，為歷史最低水準。第三季度，我們償還了約1,200萬美元的乙醇定期債務本金。

While we're focused on growth, we also remain committed to our goal of zero net debt by the end of 2015. Capital expenditures for the remainder of 2013 will be approximately $7 million, as we spent approximately $8 million in the third quarter, and on a year-to-date basis, we have invested approximately $13 million in capital projects, not including acquisitions.

在專注於成長的同時，我們也將繼續致力於實現 2015 年底實現零淨債務的目標。 2013 年剩餘時間的資本支出約為 700 萬美元，因為我們在第三季花費了約 800 萬美元，而年初至今，我們已在資本項目上投資了大約 1,300 萬美元，這還不包括收購。

To summarize, we reported a much-improved quarter compared with a year ago and on a sequential basis. Our balance sheet and our liquidity have us well-positioned to support our current operations and fund our future growth initiatives. With that, I will turn the call back over Todd.

總而言之，我們報告的季度業績與去年同期和環比相比都有顯著改善。我們的資產負債表和流動性使我們有足夠的能力支持當前的營運並資助未來的成長計劃。至此，我將把討論權交還給托德。

When the fourth quarter started, we were about 25% hedged for the quarter, and as of today, we have increased that to approximately [65%]. With the tight stock situation, we've continued to see the inverse in ethanol prices roll forward as near term margins continue to be the strongest part of the curve. In October though, we were still fighting the transition from old to new crop corn, but our team executed really well to get into a full new crop supply chain.

第四季開始，我們當季的對沖比例約為25%，截至今天，我們已將對沖比例提升至約[65%]。由於庫存緊張，我們持續看到乙醇價格呈現反轉走勢，因為短期利潤率仍是曲線中最強勁的部分。雖然在10月份，我們仍在努力從舊作玉米過渡到新作玉米，但我們的團隊表現非常出色，成功進入了完整的新作玉米供應鏈。

There are some very interesting facts that are important when we look at the current market situation. The first, as I mentioned earlier, is ethanol's competitiveness in the global markets and why this is the case.

當我們審視當前的市場狀況時，有一些非常有趣的事實非常重要。首先，正如我之前提到的，是乙醇在全球市場上的競爭力，以及原因。

With the price of corn below $4.50 a bushel, we convert starch into sugar at an effective cost below $0.10 a pound. If you compare that to the world price of sugar, corn-based ethanol competes very well with Brazil for demand globally.

由於玉米價格低於每蒲式耳4.50美元，我們將澱粉轉化為糖的實際成本低於每磅0.10美元。如果將其與全球糖價進行比較，玉米乙醇在全球糖價方面與巴西的競爭非常激烈。

With that said, we have seen a pickup on export interest similar to that of late 2011. In fact, we have sold approximately 7% of our production capacity through March to export markets and we are working hard to increase that percentage. We believe that a large part of the industry production increases we have seen lately could be exported, leaving little room for a fast recovery to the tight domestic ethanol stock situation.

話雖如此，我們看到出口興趣有所回升，與2011年末類似。事實上，截至3月份，我們已將約7%的產能銷往出口市場，我們正努力提高這一比例。我們認為，近期行業產量成長的很大一部分可能會用於出口，因此國內乙醇庫存緊張的局面幾乎沒有快速恢復的空間。

Finally, the distillers grain market is unusually strong as well. This is led by great domestic and export demand for the product. We have seen values as high as 120% the value of corn domestically.

最後，酒糟市場也異常強勁。這得益於國內和出口對該產品的旺盛需求。我們曾看到其國內價格高達玉米價格的120%。

We always believe that until the price exceeds 140% the value of corn in the ration, it is still adds a value to animal production economics, and that seems to be so lately. More importantly, the world market has figured this out. In August, we exported out of the US over 1 million tons of distillers grains, with half of that going to China.

我們始終認為，只要價格不超過日糧中玉米價值的140%，它仍然能為畜牧生產經濟增值，而最近似乎也確實如此。更重要的是，世界市場已經意識到了這一點。 8月份，我們從美國出口了超過100萬噸酒糟，其中一半銷往了中國。

With the high price of wheat relative to corn we expect that this market will continue to focus on cheap, high quality feed products and continue to support production economics for the ethanol industry.

由於小麥價格相對於玉米價格較高，我們預計該市場將繼續專注於廉價、高品質的飼料產品，並繼續支持乙醇產業的生產經濟。

As we have said in our earnings release, we believe the fundamentals in our industry support a stronger fourth quarter financial performance. And looking forward to 2014, we expect that to continue.

正如我們在財報中所述，我們相信行業基本面將支撐第四季度財務業績的強勁成長。展望2014年，我們預期這一趨勢將持續下去。

Part of our growth plans are to continue to expand our grain storage in and around the ethanol plants. We completed our 9 million bushel grain storage expansion for 2013, bringing total Company storage to over 27 million bushels. These totals are inclusive of 10 million bushels of working storage at the ethanol plants, with the remaining and all additional used for more seasonal storage activities where we realize harvest margins and earn the carry.

我們成長計畫的一部分是繼續擴大乙醇工廠及其周邊地區的糧食倉儲。 2013年，我們完成了900萬蒲式耳糧食倉儲的擴建，使公司總倉儲量超過2700萬蒲式耳。這些總量包括乙醇工廠的1000萬蒲式耳工作倉儲量，其餘及所有額外倉儲量將用於季節性倉儲活動，以實現收穫利潤並賺取結轉利潤。

The space was added at an average cost of about $0.64 a bushel. Based on our expectations, the return we'll earn on the new space should pay back in less than two years. We should start to see some benefit from our increased storage space in this harvest quarter, and we are working up on filling that space as the crops are coming out of the fields.

新增空間的平均成本約為每蒲式耳0.64美元。根據我們的預期，新增空間的回報預計在兩年內即可實現。我們應該會在本收穫季開始看到新增儲存空間帶來的一些效益，隨著作物陸續出田，我們正在加緊填補這些空間。

We are currently planning to add an additional 10 million to 15 million bushels of storage in 2014, with the goal to be at 50 million bushels by the end of 2015. And while nearly doubling our storage over the next two years may sound aggressive, 50 million bushels is little more than two months of corn demand from our ethanol platform.

我們目前計劃在 2014 年增加 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬蒲式耳的庫存，目標是到 2015 年底達到 5,000 萬蒲式耳。雖然在未來兩年內將庫存增加近一倍聽起來有些激進，但 5,000 萬蒲式耳僅相當於我們乙醇平台兩個月的玉米需求量。

Our expansions may include acquiring additional locations similar to the Archer, Nebraska grain elevator that we purchased in June, which, by the way, we have already expanded. Some of the storage may be more costly as local regulations will dictate the type of capacity we will add.

我們的擴張計劃可能包括收購更多類似於我們六月收購的位於內布拉斯加州阿徹的穀物升降機的倉庫，順便說一下，我們已經擴建了它。由於當地法規將決定我們新增的倉儲容量類型，部分倉儲成本可能會更高。

In closing, I will explain why growing the storage capacity is important us. While we have worked over the last five years to build a diversified platform, we continue to focus on the next five years.

最後，我想解釋為什麼擴大儲存容量對我們如此重要。過去五年來，我們一直致力於打造多元化的平台，但我們仍將重點放在未來五年。

When we sold 12 grain elevators late last year, we indicated that this was not an exit from domestic grain handling business. It was merely a reallocation of resources to take advantage of the existing infrastructure we have in place and leverage off of those capabilities.

去年年底，我們出售了12台穀物升降機，當時我們表示，這並不代表我們退出國內穀物處理業務。這只是一次資源的重新分配，旨在充分利用我們現有的基礎設施，並發揮這些能力。

With that said, by the end of next year we will have rebuilt 75% of the capacity we sold at a fraction of the cost. We can now originate first handle bushels from the farmer in these the people, roads, scales, and land we already have to reduce the cost and increase the returns from our grain storage assets.

話雖如此，到明年年底，我們將以極低的成本重建75%的已售倉儲容量。現在，我們可以利用現有的人力、道路、秤和土地，從農民手中獲取首批蒲式耳，從而降低成本，並提高糧食倉儲資產的收益。

Our focus has been to find more value-added products like corn oil. We still have room to improve in both areas of efficiency and cost. We continue to add selective milling technology or fine grind to Green Plains across our ethanol platform. In addition, we are also continually evaluating new enzymatic products to help drive yield improvement.

我們一直致力於開發更多加值產品，例如玉米油。在效率和成本方面，我們仍有提升空間。我們將繼續在 Green Plains 乙醇平台上添加選擇性研磨技術或精細研磨技術。此外，我們也持續評估新的酵素製劑產品，以幫助提高產量。

Another part of the corn kernel we working on at extracting value from is the CO2 that was captured as it was growing and released during fermentation. This is where BioProcess Algae comes in, to take that CO2 and turn it into algae.

我們致力於從玉米粒中提取價值的另一部分是其生長過程中捕獲並在發酵過程中釋放的二氧化碳。生物製程藻類公司正是為此而生，它能吸收這些二氧化碳並將其轉化為藻類。

As we indicated last quarter, we slowed down the expansion in order to retrofit all of the existing algae reactors. I am happy to announce that the retrofit is complete and we were successful in completing that task.

正如我們上個季度所指出的，我們放慢了擴建速度，以便改造所有現有的藻類反應器。我很高興地宣布，改造工作已經完成，我們圓滿完成了這項任務。

We have experienced a solid improvement in yields. Productivity data based on early results from recent harvests is very encouraging.

我們的產量穩定提高。根據近期收成的初步結果所得出的生產力數據非常令人鼓舞。

We've done a few other things with the platform which I want to share with you. With the realization that an ethanol plant has some of the cheapest and best sugars in the world, we started to see our algae, grown in the autotrophic process, sugar during the last part of the growth phase so we can increase yields without sunlight. It is only a nutrient boost and not a main input for growth, which still remains sunlight, CO2, warm water, and waste heat.

我們利用這個平台做了一些其他的事情，我想和大家分享一下。在意識到乙醇工廠擁有世界上最便宜、最好的糖分之一後，我們開始觀察自養藻類在生長後期的產糖情況，這樣我們就可以在沒有陽光的情況下提高產量。這只是一種營養補充，而不是生長的主要輸入，生長的主要輸入仍然是陽光、二氧化碳、溫水和廢熱。

We call this a mixotrophic process and expect this to be an important part of our technology going forward. We have seen immediate positive results in all of our reactors. For certain strains in certain markets, this will be very beneficial to the process.

我們稱之為混合營養過程，並期望它成為我們未來技術發展的重要組成部分。我們已經在所有反應器中看到了立竿見影的正面效果。對於某些市場中的某些菌株而言，這將非常有利於該製程。

In addition this week, we will install a fermentation processing tank inside the Shenandoah ethanol plant, where algae will be fed after the mixotrophic process to determine whether we can supercharge the yields using waste sugars from our ethanol process. Again, all this will be dependent on the ultimate use and the value of the strains we are growing.

此外，本週我們將在雪蘭多乙醇工廠內安裝一個發酵處理罐，用於在混合營養過程結束後餵養藻類，以確定我們能否利用乙醇生產過程中產生的廢糖來提高產量。同樣，這一切都取決於我們培育的菌株的最終用途和價值。

These developments are part of the DOE grant application and we decided the bench trials were so favorable, that we would immediately apply this to our existing platform. So now the retrofit is complete, the DOE scope -- sorry, DOE meaning Department of Energy, from the grant that we got last year. Scope is being finalized to determine what the platform will look like in 2014 and 2015.

這些研發成果是美國能源部 (DOE) 撥款申請的一部分，我們認為台架試驗結果非常令人滿意，因此會立即將其應用於我們現有的平台。現在改造工作已經完成，這是美國能源部（DOE）的撥款範圍——抱歉，DOE 指的是能源部，這筆撥款來自我們去年獲得的撥款。目前正在最終確定範圍，以確定該平台在 2014 年和 2015 年的形態。

We're focusing our product development effort in nutraceuticals, fishmeal, fish oil replacement products, and different uses in human nutrition. We've hired a VP of Business Development as we feel the time is right to start nailing down strategic partners and customers.

我們的產品開發重點是營養保健品、魚粉、魚油替代產品以及人類營養領域的各種用途。我們聘請了一位業務發展副總裁，因為我們覺得現在正是開始尋找策略夥伴和客戶的好時機。

We always felt if we could grow it, we could sell it, and we are starting to grow more and more biomass every day. Although it does not sound like a lot, we have produced over 20 tons of dry biomass in the current reactors since we ramped up production last year. We believe this is still one of the only turnkey processes that convert CO2 into a finished biomass through multiple steps through growing, harvesting, dewatering, and drying on site at a single location. While we have an enormous amount of work to do, we're excited about some of the latest advancements in the technology.

我們一直認為，只要能種植，就能出售。如今，我們每天都在種植越來越多的生物質。雖然聽起來數量不多，但自去年提高產量以來，我們在現有反應器中已經生產了超過20噸乾生物質。我們相信，這仍然是目前為數不多的能夠將二氧化碳通過多個步驟（種植、收穫、脫水和乾燥）在單一地點現場轉化為成品生物質的交鑰匙工藝之一。雖然我們還有很多工作要做，但我們對這項技術的一些最新進展感到興奮。

We are shipping product this week for fishmeal trials with the USDA, led by Dr. Rick Barrows, and will let you know we get the results early next year as well. If you'd like to see the latest video of our process, please click on the link in the presentation and you'll be able to view the process and you could see why we're excited about this.

我們本週將發貨，用於由瑞克·巴羅斯博士領導的美國農業部魚粉試驗，並將於明年初公佈結果。如果您想觀看我們最新的生產過程視頻，請點擊演示文稿中的鏈接，即可觀看整個過程，了解我們為何對此感到興奮。

In addition, there is a photo of our largest 400-foot reactor before we inoculated, so you can see the scope and scale of what we are doing. For comparison, the video shows one of the 200-foot reactors.

此外，我們還附上了我們最大的400英尺反應器在接種前的照片，以便您了解我們工作的範圍和規模。為了進行比較，影片中展示的是其中一個200英尺的反應爐。

So as we look to expand our business with the growth capital raised in September and our strong overall balance sheet, our focus is expanding on what we have assembled. We believe our overall platform is ripe for expansion, whether vertically or adjacent businesses, we are well equipped to manage commodity processing businesses across many types of commodities.

因此，我們期待藉助9月籌集的成長資本和強勁的整體資產負債表來拓展業務，我們的重點是拓展現有業務。我們相信，我們的整體平台已經成熟，可以擴展，無論是垂直業務還是相關業務，我們都具備管理多種商品加工業務的條件。

We are looking for organic expansion and transformational accretive opportunities for our Company and our shareholders. As our team has steadily worked on our improving our processes, we have become more efficient. We operate our locations in a safe manner, our back and middle offices are world-class.

我們正在為公司和股東尋求有機擴張和轉型增值的機會。隨著我們的團隊不斷改進流程，我們的效率也得到了提升。我們以安全的方式經營各個辦公地點，我們的後台和中台部門均達到世界一流水平。

We have never strayed from our core competency of managing the risk of the commodities that we buy and sell, and we've never lost focus on making sure all of this hard work is to the benefit of our stakeholders.

我們從未偏離管理所買賣商品風險的核心競爭力，我們也從未忘記確保所有這些艱苦的工作都是為了我們的利害關係人的利益。

We are a for-profit enterprise, we appreciate the trust our shareholders and debtholders have in our business, and we plan on being -- continue to be worthy stewards of the capital invested in Green Plains. Thanks for calling, and we will open up the floor for questions.

我們是一家營利企業，我們感謝股東和債權人對我們業務的信任，並計劃繼續做好綠色平原投資資本的管理者。感謝您的來電，我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Farha Aslam, Stephens Inc.

（操作員指示）Farha Aslam，Stephens Inc.

Congratulations on a great quarter. And then, just talking about your first point you made today, which was on the tight supply of ethanol in the US markets, I think that the day's inventory is down to 17 to 18 days of inventory.

恭喜您本季取得了優異的業績。然後，說到您今天提到的第一個問題，即美國市場乙醇供應緊張，我認為當日庫存已降至17至18天的庫存量。

Could you share with us what has driven inventories of ethanol so low and how you expect that to progress? And I believe at around 17 to 18 days, that's when ethanol really has pricing power, so any color you could give about pricing would be helpful as well.

您能否與我們分享一下導致乙醇庫存如此低的原因以及您預計未來將如何發展？我認為在大約17到18天左右，乙醇才真正具有定價權，因此，您能否提供一些關於定價的詳細信息，也將有所幫助。

We saw a pretty large stocks draw again this morning on increased production. We think that a lot of what we're starting to see is the impact of the price structure of ethanol globally. We are seeing good demand for exports; literally on a daily basis we are getting inquiries.

由於產量增加，我們今天早上再次看到庫存大幅下降。我們認為，我們開始看到的很大一部分是全球乙醇價格結構的影響。我們看到出口需求旺盛；實際上，我們每天都會收到詢價。

We think between that, and the price competitiveness that ethanol has to gasoline has really been what's driving stocks and the stocks draws up continually. I think, also, with the price spread that it has been, we've seen demand for E85 increase in the previous quarter. And we're starting to see actually some demand for expanded blends at some stations across Iowa for [4D15] as well.

我們認為，乙醇相對於汽油的價格競爭力是推動股市上漲的真正原因，而且股市持續上漲。此外，我認為，由於價差擴大，我們看到上一季對E85汽油的需求增加。而且，我們實際上也開始看到愛荷華州一些加油站對[4D15]混合汽油的需求增加。

In combination with the fact that we think US fuel demand is stable or possibly even up, we showed even a little bit up today, overall fuel demand in the US which we haven't seen, I don't think, for quite a while. Between that, pushing the ethanol into every nook and cranny in the US, the domestic use of E85 because of the economics of that, as well as the export markets, we think that from that standpoint we're still seeing an inverted market in ethanol. And that inverse continues to roll forward, so the best margins continue to be in this spot.

我們認為美國燃料需求保持穩定，甚至可能上升，今天的數據甚至略有上升。美國整體燃料需求的成長，我認為已經很久沒有出現過了。考慮到乙醇在美國的普及，以及E85汽油（出於經濟考量）在國內和出口市場的使用，我們認為從這些角度來看，乙醇市場仍然處於一個反轉狀態。而且這種反轉趨勢仍在繼續，因此，利潤率最高的市場仍然在當前。

I will tell you, though, that starting this week we have actually had some opportunity to lock in some stuff in Q1 -- some of our margins in Q1. So right now, as a Company, we are about 7% hedged in Q1 right now. And we have farm bought in a lot of our locations, especially in our eastern locations at values that makes it certainly interesting out on the forward curve, which I would say this early, looking out at Q4 -- I'm sorry, 2014 next year's curve, we haven't had a lot of opportunities to hedge.

不過，我要告訴你，從本週開始，我們實際上有機會在第一季鎖定一些利潤——也就是第一季的部分利潤。所以目前，作為一家公司，我們在第一季的對沖率約為7%。我們在許多地方，尤其是東部地區，都購買了農場，這些農場的價值使得未來曲線看起來非常有趣。我現在就說，展望第四季——抱歉，是2014年，也就是明年的曲線，我們並沒有太多機會進行對沖。

I think the final thing is that we are starting to see a lot of RBOB interest as well. So ethanol prices against RBOB very well, so we have a lot of demand. I know it's a long answer to your question, sorry, but I'll finish with this.

我認為最後一件事是，我們也開始看到很多對RBOB的興趣。乙醇價格相對於RBOB來說表現很好，所以我們的需求很大。我知道你的問題回答很長，抱歉，但我就用這個來結束吧。

There's a lot of demand of ethanol as priced against RBOB, so the blend economics are so good that that's driving, as well, some of the margin on the front end -- at least the stability of the margin on the front end. I wouldn't say it's blowing out like we saw in late -- at peak margins at all, anything like that. But it is stable, which is good as well for our industry.

相對於RBOB（英國精煉汽油）的價格，乙醇的需求量很大，因此混合燃料的經濟效益非常好，這也推動了部分前端利潤率——至少是前端利潤率的穩定。我不會說它像我們最近看到的利潤率高峰一樣出現井噴式成長。但它是穩定的，這對我們這個行業來說也是件好事。

And then when you look at the international demand, what are the key markets you're seeing demand from? And what do you expect 2014 exports to be for US ethanol?

那麼，從國際需求來看，您認為主要需求來自哪些市場？您預計2014年美國乙醇的出口量是多少？

I think we sell -- see, here's the deal. From the standpoint of Green Plains, I would say about 50% of our capacity at this point can make export spec for various different markets. So we more -- when we look at -- what we do, we sell -- when interest comes in, we will sell the specs that they need, which we could pretty much hit any of the global markets whether it's Brazil, whether it's Europe, whether it's Canada, whether it's Africa, or whether it's Asia.

我認為我們銷售——你看，情況是這樣的。從Green Plains的角度來看，我認為我們目前大約有50%的產能可以生產出口規格的產品，並銷往不同的市場。所以我們更注重——我們做什麼，我們銷售——當客戶感興趣時，我們會銷售他們需要的規格，這些規格幾乎可以銷往全球任何市場，無論是巴西、歐洲、加拿大、非洲還是亞洲。

And so we think, from every single one of those areas around the world, we are seeing demand as an industry. Again, we are not direct sellers of ethanol into export markets. We are just supplying the products so somebody can load a boat. But I would say all of those demand markets are at least inquiring or are active, all driven by the price of ethanol against gasoline, further driven by the fact that corn is making new four-year lows.

因此，我們認為，從全球每一個地區來看，我們都在以產業視角看待乙醇需求。再次強調，我們並非乙醇直接銷往出口市場。我們只是提供產品，以便有人裝船。但我想說，所有這些需求市場至少都在詢價或活躍，這都受到乙醇相對於汽油價格上漲的推動，而玉米價格創下四年新低更是進一步推高了這一趨勢。

In terms of what our expectation of exports, we just finished the crop year, so I think when we look at the 12 months that we are in right now, we expect exports -- and this is just an internal estimate, to be potentially over 1 billion gallons recovering from last year, and mainly driven by the fact that when corn converts into sugar, sugar is a very cheap feedstock for us now. And we're competing very well with Brazil. We actually think some of that export demand will be driven by some of the Brazil economics as well.

就我們的出口預期而言，我們剛剛結束了農作物年度，所以我認為，就目前的12個月而言，我們預計出口量——這只是一個內部估計——可能比去年恢復超過10億加侖，這主要是因為玉米轉化為糖後，糖對我們來說是一種非常廉價的原料。而且我們與巴西的競爭非常激烈。實際上，我們認為部分出口需求也將受到巴西經濟的推動。

We are hearing that there is interest from Brazil. I can't confirm that any business has been done directly. But we think that's part of the demand driver.

我們聽說巴西對此很感興趣。我無法確認是否直接達成了任何交易。但我們認為這是需求驅動因素之一。

Great, and my final question relates to the EPA and the RFS. When do you expect the EPA to make any announcements regarding next year's RFS? And what changes are you looking for, for the next year in terms of the RFS total and the corn ethanol in particular?

太好了，我的最後一個問題是關於環保署（EPA）和再生能源標準（RFS）的。您預計環保署什麼時候會發布關於明年再生能源標準（RFS）的公告？您預計明年再生能源標準（RFS）總量，尤其是玉米乙醇方面會有哪些變化？

So the discussion lately has been that EPA is getting or is preparing to make some type of announcement, possibly in the next couple of weeks. We have no confirmation of that from them, so we are going to go with what some of the discussion in the market is.

最近的討論是，美國環保署（EPA）即將或準備發布某種公告，可能在未來幾週內發布。我們尚未得到他們的確認，因此我們將關注市場上的一些討論。

I think they're looking at all of the factors right now. They're looking at what is the base demand for ethanol, what is the E85 demand, what are we starting to see in rollouts of potential E15 demands, and then where are the exports markets as well. As well as the import markets, I think they have to take that into consideration when they look at the current situation in Brazil and whether Brazil can be competitive into our California markets, or whether you should use corn-based ethanol, get the RIN from that, use that RIN to the buy advanced ethanol RIN, and satisfy your obligations.

我認為他們現在正在考慮所有因素。他們正在考慮乙醇的基礎需求是多少，E85的需求是多少，我們在推出潛在的E15需求時開始看到什麼，以及出口市場在哪裡。除了進口市場，我認為他們在研究巴西的現狀以及巴西是否能夠與我們加州市場競爭時必須考慮到這些因素，或者是否應該使用玉米基乙醇，從中獲得RIN，用該RIN購買高級乙醇RIN，並履行義務。

So I think when we look at next year's mandate, 2014 mandate in the mid-2014s, do I think that's going to be something that the EPA keeps? It's hard for us to say.

所以我認為，當我們檢視明年的授權，也就是2014年中期的授權時，環保署會保留這些嗎？這很難說。

From our view they don't have the legal authority to reduce corn-based mandates based on what's in the statute, which is corn ethanol being a dollar cheaper than gasoline as providing the US consumer a $13 billion benefit today, but obviously not doing any economic harm. It's available to the US consumer, so there's no lack of availability of the product.

我們認為，他們沒有法律權力根據法規減少玉米乙醇的強制要求。法規規定，玉米乙醇比汽油便宜一美元，目前為美國消費者帶來了130億美元的收益，但顯然不會造成任何經濟損失。美國消費者可以購買到這種產品，因此不存在供應短缺的問題。

We think that, when you look at the other buckets, that's probably where an adjustment will come to start. And then any corn-based ethanol adjustment, obviously, would be outside of the realm of the statute, but they can certainly do anything they want. So I think, from that standpoint, I think overall the bucket probably starts to contract and we'll have to wait and see what they do with corn.

我們認為，從其他類別來看，調整很可能從這裡開始。任何以玉米為原料的乙醇調整顯然不在該法規的管轄範圍內，但他們當然可以隨心所欲。所以，我認為，從這個角度來看，總體而言，類別可能會開始收縮，我們只能拭目以待，看看他們會如何處理玉米。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

This is Rob Walker on for Laurence. First, can you give us a bit more detail on your algal feed trials, as well as your negotiations with potential industrial partners? What milestones might you -- may want to see before they commit to a project and what hurdles would you have to overcome before committing your capital?

我是羅布沃克，勞倫斯的節目主持人。首先，您能否詳細介紹一下你們的藻類飼料試驗，以及與潛在產業夥伴的談判？在他們承諾參與專案之前，您希望看到哪些里程碑？在投入資金之前，您需要克服哪些障礙？

So the feed trials that we are sending product -- we're in lots of different types of trials with our product. I think the key is that we actually have product to give people to figure out what to do with it.

所以，我們寄送產品的飼料試驗——我們對產品進行了許多不同類型的試驗。我認為關鍵在於我們確實有產品可以提供給人們，讓他們弄清楚如何使用它。

The feed trials are going to start in the next week or so. We're sending product out right now. And if anybody knows Dr. Rick Barrows, obviously he is a very well thought-of scientist around feeding fish, especially a big supporter of using algae to do that.

飼料試驗將於下週左右開始。我們現在就開始出貨。如果有人認識里克·巴羅斯博士，你就會知道他是一位在魚類餵養方面非常有名望的科學家，尤其大力支持使用藻類來餵養魚類。

I can't get too deep into the trial. But I will say that this is why the opportunities to see this as part of the overall formula and see how it does from a palatability and a weight gain standpoint. So -- because we really believe that ultimately over the long-term that's the market that we want to be in as that third of the corn kernel gets converted.

我無法深入探討這項試驗。但我要說的是，正因如此，我們才有機會將其作為整體配方的一部分，並從適口性和增重角度觀察其效果。因此——因為我們堅信，從長遠來看，隨著三分之一的玉米粒得到轉化，這才是我們最終想要進入的市場。

In terms of other products, we have a multitude of discussions going on with people with MBAs in place with, again, a whole host of demand sources for the product. I think the key is that this is one of the first times they've been able to get more of a commodity availability of product instead of just being driven by small supplies or internal production for certain products.

就其他產品而言，我們正在與擁有MBA學位的人士進行大量討論，他們也擁有大量產品需求來源。我認為關鍵在於，這是他們第一次能夠獲得更多商品供應，而不是只依靠少量供應或某些產品的內部生產。

So I think we are surprising a lot of people that we are able to send them product. Everything we send people, people are -- companies are pleasantly surprised. But again, we are in lots of different processes.

所以我認為我們能夠把產品寄給他們，這讓很多人感到驚訝。我們寄給他們的每一件產品，人們——公司——都感到驚喜。但同樣，我們牽涉到很多不同的流程。

I think, as we develop through the kind of human nutrition, fish oil replacements, and those type of markets where we are really heavily focused on, hopefully we can make some progress. But our goal now, and I think you see, we really didn't have -- spend a lot of time on business development up to this point, because we wanted to make sure we can grow something to sell.

我認為，隨著我們在人類營養、魚油替代品以及我們重點關注的這類市場中不斷拓展，希望我們能取得一些進展。但我們現在的目標，我想你也知道，我們之前並沒有在業務拓展上投入太多時間，因為我們希望確保我們能夠種植一些可以出售的產品。

I think, as we have seen the results now, and again they are early after the retrofit, but we've seen yield increased to a point where, when you look at OpEx, CapEx, and yield, and revenue per acre based on different selling prices, we are comfortable now that we can start to really ramp up our product development and customer development, business development process. And we wouldn't have done that unless we felt like we would have a product to sell at a reasonable return on investment.

我認為，正如我們現在看到的成果，而且這些成果是在改造後的初期取得的，但我們已經看到產量提升到了一個新水平。當你根據不同的售價來衡量營運成本、資本支出、產量以及每英畝收入時，我們現在感到很安心，可以開始真正加快我們的產品開發、客戶開發和業務拓展流程了。如果我們不認為我們能夠以合理的投資報酬率銷售產品，我們是不會這麼做的。

So again, it's always chicken before the egg theory. You want to have a place to sell it first, so you want to be able to make it first. And our view has always been let's try and make it first and we think we can sell it once we do.

所以，這又回到了先有雞還是先有蛋的理論。你想先有地方賣，所以你想先生產出來。我們一直認為，先生產出來，然後才能賣出去。

So I think we'll have more to talk about of the next coming quarters. We are finalizing our engineering for the DOE study, because that's really been something that we slowed down because we wanted to use their $6 million and to help build out a bigger platform, because that platform really only has to be used, once we build it out, for about 90 days with the DOE. And then the DOE allows us to take that back for use for food or feed production.

所以我想我們接下來幾季會有更多討論。我們正在為美國能源部的研究完成工程設計，因為這項工作我們確實放慢了進度，因為我們想用他們的600萬美元來建造一個更大的平台，因為這個平台一旦建成，實際上只需要與美國能源部合作使用大約90天。之後，美國能源部允許我們將其收回用於食品或飼料生產。

We wanted to make sure we take advantage of that, which probably slowed down the overall expansion. But during that time, the retrofit was -- if you look inside the reactors on the pictures, you'll see that the retrofit was absolutely the right thing to do. So I would say more to come over the next coming quarters. We are doing a lot of work now on business development so hopefully we can find some strategic partners that want a look at this platform.

我們想確保充分利用這一點，這可能減緩了整體擴張的速度。但在那段時間裡，改造——如果你看看圖片上反應爐的內部，你會發現改造絕對是正確的選擇。所以我想在接下來的幾季透露更多消息。我們目前正大力開展業務拓展，希望能找到一些願意了解這個平台的策略夥伴。

Thanks. And as you look across the ethanol industry, how many plants would you say you meet your criteria for M&A, roughly, in terms of location, quality, and so forth?

謝謝。縱觀整個乙醇產業，您認為大致上有多少家工廠符合併購標準（包括地理位置、品質等等）？

When you look at -- we break down the industry in several different ways. You have about 40% or more of the industry is with the top five players. We think 20% in the industry is in plants that we probably don't have a lot of interest in.

看看我們用幾種不同的方式對這個行業進行細分。你會發現，大約40%或更多的市佔率集中在前五大公司。我們認為，還有20%的市佔率來自我們可能不太感興趣的工廠。

Another 20% of the industry is probably in plants of multiple owned farmer type organizations that are in very strong condition and in good shape. But I think if you just nail all that down, if you look at that other subset of the 55% or so of industry, we think there's still a good 20% to 25% of the plants that would meet our criteria.

另外20%的產業可能位於多家農場主類型的組織旗下，這些組織的工廠狀況非常好。但我認為，如果把所有這些因素都確定下來，再看看這55%左右產業的其他子集，我們認為仍然有20%到25%的工廠符合我們的標準。

Whether we can actually buy them or not is the question. But we are absolutely actively seeking acquisitions in that 25% bucket of what we think is available -- what we think would meet our criteria. But again I think what you have seen is, depending on the technology, location, the how of the plant, whether it's operating or not operating, who owns it, who doesn't own it, when you look at all of that, all those come into different aspects of price.

我們是否真的能買下它們還是個問題。但我們絕對會積極地尋找我們認為有潛力的那25%的收購機會——也就是我們認為符合我們標準的收購機會。但我再次強調，正如你所看到的，這取決於技術、位置、工廠的運作方式、是否運作、誰擁有它、誰不擁有它。當你考慮到所有這些因素時，所有這些因素都會影響價格的不同方面。

We've seen another plants read here recently at ICM. They can build plants in Iowa. We don't know the price but we're assuming that it was a favorable return for the shareholders of that company, so we think the value of different assets have different values. So, again, we are actively seeking where they are harder to buy. But we think we can get some traction in the markets.

我們最近在ICM看到了另一家工廠的報告。他們可以在愛荷華州建廠。我們不知道價格，但我們假設這對該公司的股東來說是一筆不錯的回報，所以我們認為不同資產的價值會有所不同。所以，我們再次積極尋找更難收購的地方。但我們認為我們可以在市場上獲得一些吸引力。

And then, finally, have you looked at switching a plant to butanol, and what that would entail or cost?

最後，您是否考慮將工廠改用丁醇，這會帶來什麼後果或成本？

No, we haven't actually looked at switching a plant to butanol. We're always a fast follower if a technology works, but we're not going to be the early adopter at this point.

不，我們實際上還沒有考慮過將工廠改用丁醇。如果一項技術有效，我們總是會快速跟進，但目前我們不會成為早期採用者。

So from the standpoint of when that technology is ready for full commercialization, if it's competitive with the economics, which is what we do with ethanol, will take a look at it. But at this point, we don't have any plans to do anything with our platform.

所以，從該技術何時能夠全面商業化的角度來看，如果它在經濟上具有競爭力，就像我們用乙醇做的那樣，我們會考慮。但目前，我們還沒有利用我們的平台做任何事情的計劃。

Craig Irwin, Wedbush Securities.

克雷格歐文（Craig Irwin），韋德布希證券公司。

Todd, can you update us on your hedge book? How much of your exposure in the fourth quarter have you already hedged out? And what are we looking at for the first quarter? And have you been able to capitalize on the sequential improvement in crush spreads throughout the quarter? Thanks.

Todd，您能更新一下您的對沖帳簿嗎？第四季您已經對沖了多少風險敞口？第一季的預期如何？您是否已經利用了本季壓榨價差的連續改善？謝謝。

As we indicated in the call, we're 65% done for the fourth quarter which means we really have a little bit of November and some of December left. When we look out on the curve, we're never going to get the spot-spot, because that's been a volatile area to plan. Albeit, over the last quarter if you would've done that, that was the right place to be, but the prior nine months or 12 months, that was probably not the right place to be.

正如我們在電話會議中提到的，第四季的計畫已經完成了65%，這意味著我們實際上還剩下一點時間來完成11月和12月的計畫。從曲線來看，我們永遠無法找到最佳時機，因為這是一個波動很大的規劃階段。雖然，如果上個季度能做到這一點，那應該是正確的，但之前的九個月或十二個月，這可能就不是正確的了。

So in Q4, October was a little volatile, in terms of the margin structure, whether you were in areas that had new crop corn availability or other areas that didn't have new crop corn availability. So in the East it was easier to buy corn than in the West and it still is the case today. So the Eastern plants are actually some of our best performers, which usually the Western plants are our best performers. And we are starting to see maybe some of that switch back over.

因此，就利潤結構而言，10月份第四季略有波動，無論你是在有新作玉米供應的地區，還是在無新作玉米供應的地區。因此，東部地區比西部地區更容易買到玉米，這種情況至今依然如此。因此，東部工廠實際上是我們表現最好的工廠之一，而西部工廠通常也是我們表現最好的工廠之一。我們可能正在開始看到這種轉變的回歸。

But in general, what we said is that we think the fourth quarter will be better than the third quarter. We don't ever -- well, I don't think margins are at any kind of blowout from that standpoint. But margins are definitely a little better in the fourth than the third and will see how we finish up.

但總的來說，我們之前說過，我們認為第四季的表現會比第三季好。我們從未……嗯，從這個角度來看，我認為利潤率不會有任何井噴。但第四季的利潤率肯定會比第三季略好一些，至於最終表現如何，那就拭目以待吧。

We still have some work to do towards the end of the quarter. But I think with what you saw this morning in the stock situation, we think margins will continue to roll forward, at least for the near term.

到本季末我們還有一些工作要做。但我認為，鑑於大家今天早上看到的股票狀況，我們認為利潤率至少在短期內會持續上升。

But in general, when we see margins -- we can't take the risk of waiting to be in the absolute this week type market, because we've seen volatility go the other way, where we've seen $0.10 moves up and $0.10 moves down. And we find a point and we hedge it and we don't look back, and continue to try and drive returns.

但總的來說，當我們看到利潤率時——我們不能冒險等待絕對的本週市場，因為我們已經看到波動性朝著相反的方向發展，我們見過0.10美元上漲，也見過0.10美元下跌。我們會找到一個點，對沖它，不回頭，繼續努力推動回報。

And then how dependent do you think the market is in 2014 on that billion gallons in exports that you talked about, to maintain the strong profitability that we've been seeing recently? Do you think it's likely to persist even if we don't see the exports? Or do you think that the exports are probably one of the more important things to monitor these days?

那麼，您認為2014年市場對您提到的那10億加侖出口量的依賴程度有多大，才能維持我們最近看到的強勁盈利能力？您認為即使沒有出口，這種獲利能力還能持續下去嗎？或者您認為出口可能是目前需要關注的更重要的指標之一？

I think exports -- we didn't have that many exports in 2013 and the market performed pretty well for us throughout the year. I wouldn't say it wasn't exceptional but it was stable which we like. I think exports are always very important to us.

我認為出口－2013年我們的出口量並不大，但全年市場表現相當不錯。我不能說它不出色，但市場表現穩定，這是我們喜歡的。我認為出口對我們一直都很重要。

So if we have a gasoline demand of 133 billion gallons, you have your E10 demand at 13.3 billion, you probably got -- I don't know if there is a couple of hundred million gallons of E85 demand or not in the United States right now, maybe that's a little high. And then if you get a billion gallons of exports and a couple hundred million gallons of imports, net-net you have just basically added all that up, you get to full production.

假設我們的汽油需求量為1330億加侖，E10的需求量為133億加侖，那麼……我不知道美國目前對E85的需求量是否有幾億加侖，這個數字可能有點高。然後，如果出口量為10億加侖，進口量為幾億加侖，那麼淨值加起來，就達到了滿載生產。

And at full production I think you'll see -- I think people get -- I think the market is obsessed with the weekly EIA data. And if they think it's bearish, they are not looking deep enough in the numbers. And I think just like we saw last week, while production went up, stocks remained the same.

在全面生產的情況下，我想你會看到——我想人們明白——我認為市場過於關注每週的EIA數據。如果他們認為數據利空，那就表示他們沒有深入研究這些數據。我認為就像我們上週看到的那樣，雖然產量上升了，但庫存卻保持不變。

The market came in and spent the whole day taking ethanol down. And then we just spent the whole week taking ethanol back up, back in today's stocks number. I think people are getting too obsessed with the weekly numbers and I don't think that that's telling the whole story. I think you have to kind look at the overall fundamentals of price.

市場開盤後，乙醇價格整整一天都在下跌。然後，我們又花了整整一週的時間才將乙醇價格拉回，回到今天的庫存數據。我認為人們過於關注每週的數據，但這並不能反映全部情況。我認為你必須看看價格的整體基本面。

It's the job of the corn market to find demand right now. The carryout in the United States will be too big. It's the job of the corn market to go find demand.

玉米市場現在的任務就是找到需求。美國的庫存量將會過大。玉米市場的任務就是找到需求。

There's only really two places to do it. One is the export market for corn and the other one is the ethanol market. So we have to price ourselves in competitively for US demand, for E15 demand, for E85 demand, and for global demand. And I think that's what corn has done for us.

實際上只有兩個地方可以做到這一點。一個是玉米出口市場，另一個是乙醇市場。因此，我們必須根據美國需求、E15需求、E85需求以及全球需求，制定具有競爭力的價格。我認為玉米為我們做到了這一點。

I don't know that we're going to be able to gain enough demand for ethanol to stop the overall corn structure. But I think ultimately as we start to see a pickup in exports of corn out of the US, that maybe is where we have to go next to find more demand, which is all favorable to ethanol over the next 12 months.

我不知道我們能否獲得足夠的乙醇需求來阻止整體玉米結構的改變。但我認為，最終隨著美國玉米出口回升，我們或許應該轉向玉米出口以尋找更多需求，這對未來12個月的乙醇市場有利。

Last question if I may. E15, E85 with the current price dynamics of ethanol obviously look pretty attractive to the customer channel out there, right? So what is there on the horizon or what is there that you're monitoring that you think helps accelerate the adoption of these fuels and helps grow demand for the ethanol industry?

最後一個問題。考慮到目前乙醇的價格走勢，E15、E85 顯然對消費者通路很有吸引力，對吧？那麼，您認為未來有什麼發展趨勢，或是說您正在關注哪些因素有助於加速這些燃料的普及，並促進乙醇產業的需求成長？

Well, what we see is -- and the anecdotal information is that E85 demand has been strong whatever E85 markets there are. And it's been driven by, obviously, the price discounted ethanol to gasoline, but also the volatility of the RIN market, which even at a $0.20 corn RIN still adds an additional $0.20 to your blend economics as well.

嗯，我們看到的是——傳聞資訊是，無論E85市場如何，其需求一直都很強勁。這顯然受到乙醇相對於汽油價格的折扣所推動，但也受到RIN市場波動的影響。即使玉米RIN價格為0.20美元，也會為混合燃料的經濟效益額外增加0.20美元。

So we have seen retailers have very strong demand for E85. We've seen anyplace that an E15 pump has gone in, has driven strong demand for E15, albeit it's still very small. And in relative terms what I think what people will realize and what the retailer is realizing is that there is a price spread that they can go after and be the cheapest fuel on the street.

因此，我們看到零售商對E85汽油的需求非常強勁。我們看到，只要有E15汽油泵，所有地方對E15汽油的需求就都非常強勁，儘管目前需求量仍然很小。相對而言，我認為人們和零售商都會意識到，他們可以利用這個價差，成為街上最便宜的燃料。

We have a lot of inquiries in; we've got a lot of chains doing work around it. So starting to see some of the small -- very, very small, retailers start to take advantage of that price spread and they are looking at them and seeing that as an example.

我們收到了很多諮詢；很多連鎖店都在圍繞這個問題開展工作。所以，我們開始看到一些小型——非常非常小的零售商開始利用這個價差，他們正在關注這些連鎖店，並以此為榜樣。

It doesn't take a lot to start a movement. And when you look at the price spread of ethanol to gas, the E15 movement has started. But I would say we're still -- have lots of work to do, so.

發起一場運動並不需要太多。看看乙醇和汽油的價差就知道，E15運動已經開始了。但我想說，我們還有很多工作要做。

Brett Wong, Piper Jaffray.

布雷特·黃 (Brett Wong)，Piper Jaffray。

Just wanted to go back to the RFS and get your take if the mandate actually is reduced to 13 billion and just how you are seeing that would impact industry?

只是想回到 RFS 並聽聽您的看法，如果強制要求實際上減少到 130 億，以及您認為這會對行業產生什麼影響？

I'm not going to make a comment on whether I think the mandate will be reduced to 13 billion. I would say I think that's probably overshooting it a bit.

我不會評論我是否認為授權會減少到130億。我想說，這可能有點過頭了。

But let's just -- to answer your question in context, anything below, I think 13.5 billion to 13.8 billion is bearish corn. The corn market overall, which I think has been bullish ethanol fundamentals, because I think ultimately you have to look at it as the law of unintended consequences, right?

但為了結合上下文來回答你的問題，我認為低於135億到138億的水平對玉米價格不利。我認為玉米市場整體上利好乙醇基本面，因為我認為最終你必須把它看作是意想不到的後果規律，對吧？

So if all of a sudden, the mandate is reduced to your number, I would say the overall price structure of the corn market is in trouble. If the overall price structure of the corn market is in trouble, I would say that's favorable to ethanol economics overall and we would see even a bigger pickup in possibly global demand but also some of the expanded blends. So I think they have to be careful of the law of unintended consequences.

所以，如果突然間強制減產幅度降到你的數字，我認為玉米市場的整體價格結構就會陷入困境。如果玉米市場的整體價格結構陷入困境，我認為這對乙醇經濟整體有利，我們甚至可能看到全球需求出現更大幅度的回升，一些擴大的混合燃料也會出現。所以我認為他們必須小心應對意外後果。

I think overall, if that were to happen, I think people would obviously have an immediate negative impact. But in general overall, I think from the long-term perspective, it would be probably positive ethanol economics.

我認為，總的來說，如果這種情況真的發生，顯然會立即產生負面影響。但總的來說，從長遠來看，這可能對乙醇經濟有利。

I don't think that 13 billion is the number from everything -- even if you go back and you look at the EPA August 8 Federal Register, 13 billion wasn't even mentioned I don't think. They never went below 13.2 billion in the mentioning and I don't even think -- and that had no consideration for any expanded blends or anything like that, so we just go back to what we know.

我不認為130億是所有數據都對應的數字——即使你回頭看看美國環保署8月8日的《聯邦公報》，我認為根本沒提到130億。他們提到的數字從未低於132億，我什至認為沒有——而且這還沒有考慮到任何擴大混合或類似的東西，所以我們只能回到我們所知道的。

And all we know is what was mentioned in the register. Everything else we'll know when the EPA comes out with their next announcement. And the register was only an example of but it was not a policy change. So we'll have to wait and see what comes out.

我們只知道登記冊裡提到了什麼。其他一切都要等環保署下次發佈公告時才能知道。登記冊只是一個例子，並非政策變更。所以我們只能拭目以待，看看最終結果如何。

From our standpoint, again, our place in the fuel tank is because we can compete head-to-head with gasoline at a dollar cheaper. Both domestically and globally, we think will be able to maintain that.

從我們的角度來看，我們在燃油市場的地位再次體現在我們可以與汽油正面競爭，價格低一美元。無論在國內還是全球，我們都認為我們能夠保持這種勢頭。

Thanks. That's really good color. Just on the recent increase in production, just wondering, according to the EIA, just wondering what you're seeing in terms of plants coming back online.

謝謝。這真是個好主意。關於最近產量的成長，根據美國能源資訊署的數據，我想知道工廠復工的情況如何。

I think plants are coming back on -- I think there's a few plants that have comeback online. I think about reaching that capacity limit. I think maybe there's a few more here and there. Maybe one or two as well we can kind of see left here.

我認為工廠正在恢復生產——我認為有一些工廠已經恢復了生產。我認為產能即將達到極限。我想可能還會有一些工廠停產。也許還有一兩家工廠還剩下。

And then from there I think we've all pushed little bit harder with the production economics as stable. I think the industry in general dropped and didn't push quite as hard. We are pushing a little bit harder now, both as a Company and as an industry which I think is part of the increase.

從那時起，我認為我們都更努力了，因為生產經濟狀況已經穩定下來。我認為整個行業都出現了下滑，沒有像以前那樣努力。我們現在正在更加努力地推進，無論是作為一家公司還是作為一個行業，我認為這也是成長的一部分。

But it is our belief that a large part of the increase that we see in production is going to be exported and is a net overall. It will be hard to build and drive stocks higher. You might do it on a weekly basis but then you'll have a big export week the next week.

但我們相信，我們看到的產量成長很大一部分將用於出口，總體而言是淨出口。增加庫存並推高庫存將非常困難。你可能每週都會這樣做，但下一周就會迎來一個出口旺季。

So I think, overall, [911,000] this morning, right, was the number and -- but the stocks dropped 0.5 million barrels. So there might be some noise in that number as well. But in general, I don't think there's too much more production to come on.

所以我認為，總體而言，今天早上的數字是[91.1萬桶]，對，但是庫存下降了50萬桶。所以這個數字可能也有一些幹擾。但總的來說，我認為未來不會有太多的增產。

I think we are all, as an industry, pushing pretty hard as it is. This is a -- what we said to you last quarter is that we were doing shutdowns at all of our plants. We did that. I think the rest of the industry or a lot industry take advantage of that time period as well to take some shutdowns.

我認為，作為一個產業，我們大家都在努力推進。我們上個季度跟大家說過，我們所有工廠都停產了。我們確實這麼做了。我認為其他行業，或者說很多行業，也會利用這段時間進行一些停產。

And then, I think, this quarter will probably less overall as an industry. But then eventually you are going to have to move back into shutdown mode. So the first quarter of 2014 and the first half of 2014, you'll start to see some shutdowns began overall just to do normal maintenance. We probably won't do any, but the industry still has some room to -- so you will see some ups and downs on production when you hit these higher levels.

然後，我認為本季整個行業的產量可能會下降。但最終你將不得不重新進入停工模式。所以在2014年第一季和上半年，你會開始看到一些工廠為了進行正常維護而停工。我們可能不會採取任何措施，但行業仍有一些空間——所以當你達到這些更高的水平時，你會看到產量出現一些波動。

Just a quick follow-up, why do you think that we hit the limit of new plants coming online and are still little bit short from nameplates within the industry? So just kind of wondering what your thoughts are there?

簡單問一下，您認為為什麼我們達到了新工廠投產的極限，而距離業界標準仍然還有點差距？所以，您對此有何看法？

Well we're at 911,000 barrels a day. Our numbers have always been kind of 935,000 to 940,000 barrels a day. Maybe you peak a little bit higher than that.

嗯，我們現在的產量是每天91.1萬桶。我們的產量數字一直是每天93.5萬到94萬桶。也許峰值會比這個數字高一點。

But there are plants that have been shut down, there are plants that will come back up, there are plants that are being dismantled still. I think that overall we still see a few out there that can be brought back online, but there's some stuff that's going to be permanently closed here as well that probably won't come back online.

但有些工廠已經關閉，有些工廠即將恢復運營，也有些工廠仍在拆除中。我認為總體而言，我們仍然看到一些工廠可以恢復運營，但也有一些工廠將永久關閉，可能無法恢復運作。

So maybe we could peak out at 940,000, 950,000-ish area, but I think that is kind of peaking out for the industry capability. (multiple speakers) It's hard always run at 100%. We don't ever always run at 100%.

所以也許我們的高峰可以達到94萬到95萬左右，但我認為這已經是產業產能的高峰了。 （多位發言者）很難一直以100%的效率運作。我們並不總是以100%的效率運作。

Patrick Jobin, Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的派崔克‧喬賓 (Patrick Jobin)。

Congrats on the quarter and thanks for taking the question. First question, just a follow-up on the media speculation of the RFS, I know you've addressed it a few times. I guess just looking at it differently, if they come out with that 13 billion gallon number does that -- and you are saying that should improve the margin environment next year? And should we expect a legal challenge from industry or GPRE?

恭喜本季取得佳績，感謝您回答這個問題。第一個問題，我想跟進一下媒體對再生能源服務局（RFS）的猜測，我知道您已經多次提到這個問題。我想換個角度來看，如果他們公佈130億加侖的數據，您是說這應該會改善明年的利潤環境嗎？我們是否應該期待產業或GPRE的法律挑戰？

Again, I can't comment on the 13 billion number, except to say that I'm not sure. From our standpoint, we don't believe that that's a reasonable expectation.

再說一次，我無法評論130億這個數字，只能說我不確定。從我們的角度來看，我們認為這不是一個合理的期望。

My only point is the law of unintended consequences is that the corn market is depending on a 13.8 billion-plus number, I think, relative to the current price structure. Anything below that, we believe, is somewhat negative to the overall price structure in the corn market, which then drives our discount to gasoline even lower.

我唯一想說的是，意想不到的後果定律指出，玉米市場依賴一個超過138億的產量，我認為這是相對於當前價格結構而言的。我們認為，任何低於這個數字的產量都會對玉米市場的整體價格結構產生一定負面影響，從而進一步壓低我們對汽油的折扣。

If you have 133 billion gallons of gas demand and you can blend at a base demand of 13.3 billion anyways, whether mandated or not, you will have a competing place in the fuel tank. And when you've got 85%-plus of refined gasoline coming out of refineries at 84 octane, you would have to make a massive wholesale switch to the way gasoline trades in the United States.

如果你有1330億加侖的汽油需求，而且你無論如何都能按照133億加侖的基準需求進行混合，無論是否強制執行，你都將在油箱中擁有一席之地。而當你有85%以上的精煉汽油從煉油廠出來時，辛烷值為84，你就必須對美國的汽油交易方式進行大規模的批發轉型。

So overall, there's a lot of people wishing for a 13 billion number. It's our view that that's probably on the low side of reality. Again, we're not going to do the over-unders.

所以總的來說，很多人希望達到130億這個數字。我們認為這可能比實際情況偏低。再次強調，我們不會進行高估。

But I would say that the overall structure of the market is driven by our discount to gasoline, the demand relative to that, and the demand globally relative to that and our conversion of corn into sugar. And so at $4 dollar corn, let's just say you go down there, you are starting to push $0.085 a pound sugar equivalent. And at $3.50 corn you're starting to push $0.075 pound sugar equivalent. At that point, I'm not sure that anybody in the world that can make ethanol cheaper than us, and then it's the cheapest liquid fuel in the world. (multiple speakers)

但我想說，市場的整體結構是由我們相對於汽油的折扣、相對汽油的需求、全球相對汽油的需求以及我們將玉米轉化為糖的情況所驅動的。假設玉米價格降到4美元，糖當量的價格就開始漲到0.085美元/磅。而玉米價格降到3.5美元，糖當量的價格就開始漲到0.075美元/磅。到那時，我不確定世界上是否有人能比我們更便宜地生產乙醇，讓它成為世界上最便宜的液體燃料。 （多位發言者）

Just to follow up, will the industry challenge legally? I'm not sure. I would say, though, that somebody will.

再問一下，業界會採取法律行動嗎？我不確定。不過我想說，一定會有人這麼做。

Without a doubt, somebody's going to challenge -- if they came down -- I think either way, somebody is going to challenge the EPA. Whether it's -- whether they don't make any changes, all you could expect Big Oil to challenge EPA.

毫無疑問，有人會挑戰環保署——如果他們真的這麼做了——我認為無論如何，都會有人挑戰環保署。無論他們是否做出任何改變，你都能預料到，石油巨頭們都會挑戰環保署。

And if they make a drastic change to the downside, I'm sure you'll expect that there will be challenges to that as well, because if you look at the base law and you look at the mandate, they don't have the ability, legally, to change corn-based ethanol unless it's causing economic harm or it's not available in the market. None of that can be proven today. So it will be interesting to see how they justify a reduction to be that big, which is why we believe that they have to be a little more reasonable than that.

如果他們大幅調整下行限制，我相信你也會遇到挑戰，因為如果你看看基本法和強制規定，你會發現他們沒有合法權力改變玉米乙醇，除非它造成經濟損害或市場上買不到。目前這些都無法得到證實。所以，看看他們如何解釋如此大幅的減排措施，將會很有意思，這就是為什麼我們認為他們必須採取更合理的做法。

Right, okay. And then last question here about deploying growth capital. Maybe a little bit more color on what you're evaluating. You mentioned potentially something transformative.

好的。最後一個問題是關於部署成長資本的。或許可以更詳細地解釋一下您所評估的內容。您提到了一些潛在的變革性因素。

Should we consider that outside of ethanol? And then I would presume, given the improved crush environment, that potential prices for some of the facilities has probably increased. Is that a fair assumption?

我們應該把乙醇以外的因素也考慮進去嗎？然後，我推測，鑑於壓榨環境的改善，一些設施的潛在價格可能已經上漲。這個假設合理嗎？

Some of the facilities have increased. I think the universe is smaller of potential acquisitions, but I still think they're out there. We're focused on everywhere that we operate, both vertically and horizontally, within our supply chain.

一些設施的規模有所擴大。我認為潛在的收購範圍縮小了，但我仍然認為它們存在。我們專注於我們營運的每一個環節，包括供應鏈中的垂直和水平環節。

So from the standpoint of agribusiness, we absolutely are going to continue to grow that business. We are looking at additional storage opportunities both organically and through acquisitions.

所以從農業綜合企業的角度來看，我們絕對會繼續發展這項業務。我們正在尋找新的倉儲機會，包括有機成長和收購。

We are focused on -- look, we can't deny it. We make ethanol. We have ten plants today; we have over $1 billion of capital invested in that space. It has been over five years, not a bad business to be in, contrary to popular belief.

我們專注於——你看，我們無法否認這一點。我們生產乙醇。我們目前有十家工廠；我們在該領域的投資超過10億美元。五年多來，與普遍的看法相反，這門生意還不錯。

We have returns for our shareholders. We believe we are very good at what we do. We operate very effectively, and so we would not be afraid to add the right plant, right location, right technology.

我們為股東帶來回報。我們相信自己非常擅長所做的事情。我們運作高效，因此我們不會懼怕在合適的地點增設工廠，採用合適的技術。

But I don't think you'd see us overpaying for anything based on the volatility of what we've seen in the past 12 to 24 months. We don't have to -- we've had ethanol plants. It's not something that we have to do. It's something that will want to do based on the deal economics that we see.

但基於過去12到24個月的波動性，我認為我們不會為任何項目支付過高的價格。我們沒必要這麼做──我們已經有乙醇工廠了。這不是我們必須做的事情。根據我們所看到的交易經濟效益，我們願意這麼做。

When you look downstream, we absolutely love the terminal we built in Birmingham and are looking for additional businesses from there. And then from there, we look at -- well, we're a commodities processor. There are the things that process commodities and we think we can be very good at that as well.

放眼下游，我們非常欣賞我們在伯明翰建造的碼頭，並正在尋求從那裡拓展更多業務。從那裡開始，我們著眼於——嗯，我們是一家大宗商品加工商。我們從事大宗商品加工業務，我們認為我們在這方面也能做得很好。

So we'll look at not just corn-based products around ethanol, we'll look at corn-based products in general. And we'll look at other commodities that process into something else as well, mainly focused around agriculture. So I would say that anything from organic to transformative is something that we're looking at.

因此，我們不僅會關注以玉米為原料的乙醇產品，也會關注所有以玉米為原料的產品。我們也會關注其他可加工成其他產品的商品，主要集中在農業領域。所以，我想說，從有機到轉化性產品，我們都會注意。

We think we should add -- we think over time there's going to be a third leg of the stool here or fourth leg of the stool that needs to get added to this Company based on our balance sheet, the way we manage risk, our trading platform, and overall structure of the Company. So that doesn't mean that it's going to come right away.

我們認為我們應該…我們認為隨著時間的推移，根據我們的資產負債表、風險管理方式、交易平台以及公司的整體結構，我們需要增加第三或第四條支柱。所以這並不意味著它會馬上到來。

But if we saw the right situation which we think would be good for our shareholders in some type of commodity processing enterprise, we would have to look at that very closely. But I would say that they could be within ethanol or outside of ethanol.

但如果我們發現了某種商品加工企業中對股東有利的有利條件，我們就必須仔細研究。但我認為，這些企業可能在乙醇產業內，也可能在乙醇產業外。

Just one last follow-up, apologies. When they look at the grain storage increase that you are targeting for the remainder of this year of 2014 and then target for 2015, how should we expect the operating income from that segment to track just on a quarterly basis? Is there a way to look at economic return or contribution per bushel? Thanks.

抱歉，還有最後一個問題。當他們看到你們為2014年剩餘時間以及2015年設定的糧食庫存增加目標時，我們應該如何預期該部門的季度營業利潤會有所增長？有沒有辦法計算每蒲式耳的經濟報酬或貢獻？謝謝。

So today we have approximately 27 million bushels of total storage, at which 10 million of it is sitting in an ethanol plant. The other 17 million of that, we would say that's where you could earn your return on space.

所以，目前我們的總庫存量約為2700萬蒲式耳，其中1000萬蒲式耳存放在一家乙醇工廠。剩下的1700萬蒲式耳，我們認為可以用來賺取空間收益。

And so the 17 million we would say has a first handle margin both -- some of it actually in soybeans, wheat and corn, but a lot of it in corn. Where you fill it up out of the field, you put it away or earn the carry and you ship against that at some time in the forward market.

因此，我們認為這1700萬份合約包含首手保證金——其中一部分實際上是大豆、小麥和玉米，但很大一部分是玉米。你把貨物從田裡運出來，儲存起來，或者賺取利差，然後在期貨市場上的某個時候發貨。

So with 17 million bushels, depending on what that first handle margin is or what the carry or return on space you could earn, we have said that we believe first handle margins are in that $0.30 a bushel range. And plus any additional -- and that includes some of the carries plus any additional other opportunities. So we think when we look at 17 million bushels of space we have a potential $5 million opportunity for operating income (multiple speakers).

因此，對於1700萬蒲式耳的庫存，根據首批庫存的利潤率，或者您可以獲得的庫存或倉儲收益，我們認為首批庫存的利潤率在每蒲式耳0.30美元左右。此外，還包括任何額外的利潤——這包括部分庫存以及任何其他機會。因此，我們認為，當我們考慮1700萬蒲式耳的倉儲空間時，我們有500萬美元的潛在營業利潤機會（多位發言者）。

And so as we kind of growth that up to 50 million bushels total, that will give us an additional 40 million bushels of space earn or return on and at some margin at $0.30 plus. And what we really like about our platform is that the cost that we're doing it, because we already have a road and scales and rail and people, at a cost we're doing it is significantly less overall. Our operating costs are lower, so most of that margin will be available to us as an operating income after expenses.

因此，當我們的總產量達到5000萬蒲式耳時，我們將額外獲得4000萬蒲式耳的收益或回報，利潤率在0.30美元以上。我們真正喜歡我們平台的地方在於，由於我們已經擁有道路、磅秤、鐵路和人員，因此整體成本顯著降低。我們的營運成本更低，因此大部分利潤將以扣除費用後的營業收入的形式歸我們所有。

And so we run a very low cost structure. So we think if you look at that number, by the end of 2015, we think with the 50 million total space that we would have, which is our goal, we would basically be able to almost re-create all of what GPD was putting out at the end of 2012. Is that correct, Jerry?

所以我們的營運成本非常低。所以，我們認為，如果按照這個數字來看，到2015年底，我們擁有的總空間將達到5000萬個，也就是我們的目標，我們基本上能夠重現GPD在2012年底推出的所有產品。傑瑞，你說得對嗎？

Yes. And I would just add to that, just in terms of the seasonality of how we'll recognize that. Obviously it depends on the shape of the grain curves. But generally speaking, you would expect to recognize a good portion of that income in the fourth quarter, maybe a little bit less than going into the first quarter of the following year, or a lot less than the second and third quarters of the following year. So it's kind of heavily oriented toward harvest and earning the carries while they're there.

是的。我想補充一點，關於我們如何確認這筆收入的季節性。顯然，這取決於穀物曲線的形狀。但一般來說，預計在第四季度確認很大一部分收入，可能比進入第二年第一季時略少，或比第二年第二季和第三季少很多。所以，這很大程度取決於收穫和在收穫期間賺取的利潤。

But it also depends on, again, where that corn is being harvested. So this year the West, we're still filling space while the East, we are deep into our platform. So, in the West, we are just starting to fill the space.

但這同樣取決於玉米的收穫地點。所以今年在西部，我們仍在填補空缺，而在東部，我們已經深入平台。所以在西部，我們才剛開始填補空缺。

I would say that space that we have is not the first place the bushel comes out of the field at this point, because we don't have drying capacity for that. So we are -- we have to be patient to let the crops dry down. We're looking at, though, adding drying capacity in front of some of the space in the future, so that we can take wet corn out of the field as well.

我想說，我們現有的空間並不是目前玉米從田裡出來的第一個地方，因為我們沒有烘乾玉米的能力。所以我們必須耐心等待作物乾燥。不過，我們正在考慮將來在部分空間前面增加烘乾能力，這樣我們就可以把濕玉米也從田裡運出來。

So this is an evolving process. But I would say that, we're trying to make that 50 million space look much like a commercial grain company return on storage.

所以這是一個不斷發展的過程。但我想說的是，我們正努力讓這5,000萬個儲存空間看起來更像商業糧食公司的倉儲回報。

Was the target for 2014? It was in your (multiple speakers).

2014年的目標是什麼？它在你的（多位發言者）中。

It was another 10 million to 15 million bushels in 2014. You have 17 million plus 15 million, somewhere around 30 million space.

2014 年又增加了 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬蒲式耳。現在有 1700 萬蒲式耳加上 1500 萬蒲式耳，大約還有 3000 萬蒲式耳的空間。

Matt Farwell, Imperial Capital.

帝國首都的馬特法威爾 (Matt Farwell)。

Great quarter. Could you just confirm the most exported ethanol is anhydrous? So it doesn't impact the RIN market.

非常棒的一個季度。能否確認一下，出口最多的乙醇是無水乙醇？所以它不會影響RIN市場。

And could you also confirm that -- what plant level margins all right now? And should those higher margins support the ramp to the 940,000 barrels per day of theoretical capacity that you have?

您能否確認一下－目前工廠層級的利潤率是多少？這些更高的利潤率是否應該支持您實現理論產能提升至94萬桶/日的目標？

The way I'm looking at it is if we do get to that number which is roughly 14.4 billion, your 1 billion gallons of ethanol exports next year should, for the most part, offset some of these concerns about the RFS.

我的看法是，如果我們確實達到大約 144 億這個數字，那麼明年 10 億加侖的乙醇出口應該會在很大程度上抵消對 RFS 的一些擔憂。

We didn't hear you on the first question.

我們沒有聽到你的第一個問題。

So, on exported ethanol, I think what we've discussed in the past is generally anhydrous so it doesn't generate any RINs and doesn't impact the RIN market. I believe that there's a dynamic there (multiple speakers).

關於出口乙醇，我認為我們過去討論過的通常是無水乙醇，因此不會產生任何RIN，也不會影響RIN市場。我相信這方面存在動態（多位發言者）。

When the RIN -- when it exports out, the RIN is retired. We don't keep the RINs to sell it so that RIN is just off the market.

當RIN出口到國外時，RIN就退休了。我們不會保留RIN去出售，所以RIN就退出市場了。

Right, it's off the market. So if you have 14.4 billion produced next year but 1 billion is exported, that essentially leaves only 13.4 billion RINs for the market.

是的，它已經退出市場了。所以，如果明年生產144億個RIN，但只有10億個出口，那麼實際上市場上就只剩下134億個RIN了。

That is correct. Unless, obviously --- yes, you're absolutely correct on that. You just have to look at the different ways you get to that 13.4 billion gallons. But that depends really what the mandate will ultimately be.

沒錯。除非，顯然——是的，你完全正確。你只需要看看實現134億加侖目標的不同方法。但這實際上取決於最終的強制要求是什麼。

But you are correct when you think about it. But what we said is that, first of all we are not at 940,000 yet. I think that's still going to be a hard last push to get there. And I don't know if that's sustainable or not.

不過仔細想想，你說得對。但我們說的是，首先，我們還沒有達到94萬人。我認為要達到這個目標，還需要最後一次衝刺，非常困難。而且我不知道這是否可持續。

So if you do get there, at the exports, we believe, will take up most of that excess capacity and we are starting to see that as we speak. And that's why you are -- at least this week we think some of that data was driven by the fact that exports are starting to ramp up a little bit.

所以，如果真的實現了這個目標，我們相信出口將吸收大部分過剩產能，我們現在就開始看到這種情況。這就是為什麼——至少在本週，我們認為部分數據是由出口開始小幅增長這一事實推動的。

And then from the standpoint of very spot margins, obviously if you are at today's market could be -- it really all depends geographically. Some of our plants could be at $0.20, some could be $0.14, some could be -- one plant might be $0.30. But in general, we are not operating right into that environment.

從現貨利潤率的角度來看，顯然，如果以今天的市場價格來看，這完全取決於地理位置。我們有些工廠的利潤率可能是0.20美元，有些可能是0.14美元，有些可能是──比如說，某家工廠的利潤率可能是0.30美元。但總的來說，我們並沒有在這種環境下運作。

The [piece] right now is showing mid-to low teens and the forward curve is showing high single digits. So I think what's important is that there's not this huge incentive based on the curve to say let's bring a bunch of capacity back on. But there is not a huge incentive to take a bunch of capacity out.

目前的數據表明，成長率處於中低位，而遠期曲線則顯示高個位數。所以我認為重要的是，從曲線來看，並沒有那麼大的動力去重啟大量產能。但也沒有那麼大的動力去淘汰大量產能。

So if you can fund your plant believing that the spot market will roll forward, that's where you're going to operate, which is why some spot market players have had a pretty good third quarter. We focus on further out in the curve. So as we said, we are starting the lock-in some Q1 and some of our plants, let's just say in the high teens again, is kind of what our focus is.

所以，如果你能為你的工廠提供資金，並且相信現貨市場會繼續上漲，那麼你就可以在那裡運營，這也是一些現貨市場參與者在第三季度表現相當不錯的原因。我們專注於曲線的更遠部分。正如我們所說，我們開始鎖定第一季的部分產能，而我們的一些工廠，我們再說一下，產能在10%左右，這差不多就是我們的重點。

But when you get there, you don't know if you're going to be in the [mid-20s] or the low single digits. So we don't actually take a view. We basically do what we've always done, which was we reach a point where we are servicing our debt and generating good return for our shareholders.

但當你達到那個目標時，你不知道你的利潤率是會達到[20%左右]還是個位數。所以我們實際上不會採取任何看法。我們基本上按照我們一直以來的做法去做，那就是達到一個能夠償還債務並為股東創造良好回報的水平。

And, again, when the spot markets blow out, it's not the place that we outperform. But if you go back and look at the third quarter of last year, everybody was very happy we hedged out the forward books.

再說一次，當現貨市場暴跌時，我們表現並不突出。但如果你回顧去年第三季度，你會發現大家都很高興我們完成了遠期交易的避險。

So I can't give you a -- the reference point right now is when you look at the remainder of the year, I would say that if you are going to lock something in today, you would be mid-teens to low [20s], depending on the location. But that doesn't take into consideration the fact that we have locked stuff in all the way up as margins have expanded.

所以我無法給你一個——目前的參考點是，當你展望今年剩餘時間時，我會說，如果你今天要鎖定一些收益，根據地點不同，你的收益將在15%到20%之間。但這並沒有考慮到，隨著利潤率的提高，我們已經鎖定了所有收益。

So, again, we think fourth quarter will be better than the third quarter. But I wouldn't get too exuberant about your thought process that we are going to get spot margins of $0.35 a gallon and that's going to flow-through. That's not how -- we are not going to take the risk of always being in the spot market.

所以，我們再次強調，我們認為第四季的表現會比第三季好。但我不會對您認為我們將獲得每加侖0.35美元的現貨利潤並實現利潤流轉的想法過於樂觀。事實並非如此——我們不會冒險一直留在現貨市場。

Are we holding a little extra back? Yeah, I would say in these markets probably more so than usual, we'll probably hold a little bit extra back. But that's based on the fact that the underlying fundamentals are now starting to tell us to do a little bit of that and the market has remained strong from the standpoint of rolling forward.

我們是不是要稍微多留點資金？是的，我想說，在這些市場，我們可能會比平常多留點資金。但這是基於這樣一個事實：基本面現在開始告訴我們應該多留點資金，而且從市場延續性的角度來看，市場仍然保持強勁。

That moves very quickly. We've seen that move in $0.10 to $0.15 increments in a week the other direction. So that's where we're at today.

變化非常快。我們看到，一週之內，價格就以0.10美元到0.15美元的幅度向相反方向波動。這就是我們今天的處境。

Got it. And then one last question on the RFS, just big picture, let's say the EPA does consider the blend wall to be an insurmountable by the industry in the short term, and then goes through an adjustment for 2014. Shouldn't the EPA broadcast an intent to grow ethanol consumption and market share in the automotive fuel supply for future years to maintain the spirit of the original law?

明白了。最後再問一個關於再生能源標準（RFS）的問題，就總體情況而言，假設環保署確實認為混合壁壘在短期內是行業難以克服的難題，並在2014年進行了調整。環保署是否應該宣布，未來幾年將增加乙醇消費量和汽車燃料供應的市場份額，以維護原法規的精神？

I think if you talk to and you hear what the EPA administrator is doing and the Secretary of Agriculture is saying, I think they are saying that. I think they're very supportive of making sure that the program and spirit of the program doesn't get dismantled here, because I think it's the single only fuel that's ever made an impact to the fuel tank in the history of the United States except for oil.

我想，如果你和環保局長溝通，聽聽他們的做法和農業部長的說法，你就會明白他們確實這麼說過。我認為他們非常支持確保該計劃及其精神不會被廢除，因為我認為，除了石油之外，這是美國歷史上唯一對油箱產生影響的燃料。

So I think the growth of LNG and trucking is probably going to be the next one. And so look at what's happening. You've got Big Oil defending share. And it's defending share in a losing share market right now.

所以我認為液化天然氣和卡車運輸的成長很可能是下一個成長點。看看現在的情況。大型石油公司正在捍衛市場佔有率。而且，在目前市佔率不斷下滑的市場中，它們正在捍衛市場佔有率。

So ethanol is the place that we believe for every 1% share that they lose at the gas tank, it's $4 billion of marginal income that is going to go away. And so they are going to protect that at all costs and try to spend the money to protect it at all costs.

所以，我們認為，乙醇市場每損失1%的市場份額，就代表40億美元的邊際收入將消失。所以，他們會不惜一切代價保護乙醇市場，不惜一切代價投入資金。

And if you look at it, we believe that at least the administrator, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the current administration is cognizant of the fact that if you do away with the only program that has ever made any impact into the fuel tank, good luck in the future.

如果你看一下，我們相信至少管理者、農業部長和現任政府都意識到了這樣一個事實：如果你廢除這個唯一對油箱產生影響的項目，那麼未來就只能祝你好運了。

I think the most interesting thing now is you even see the methanol guys talking about that they need a mandate. They need some program to get into the fuel tank. So I don't think that they are going to be so shortsighted to not expect that they need to leave some runway for growth in the future.

我認為現在最有趣的是，你甚至看到甲醇燃料生產商在談論他們需要強制執行。他們需要一些計劃來進入燃料市場。所以我認為他們不會如此短視，以至於不考慮為未來的成長留出一些空間。

This does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Todd Becker for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。接下來，我想將會議交還給托德·貝克爾，請他發表補充演講或結束演講。

Thank you everybody for coming out on the call today. Obviously a lot of interesting questions.

感謝大家今天的電話會議。顯然有很多有趣的問題。

From our standpoint, we think the fundamentals are very good as we have discussed. We're going to certainly see some things coming out of EPA in the next couple of weeks or couple of months. But from our standpoint, we are continuing to build our business.

從我們的角度來看，正如我們之前討論過的，我們認為基本面非常好。未來幾週或幾個月，我們肯定會看到EPA（環保署）推出一些措施。但從我們的角度來看，我們仍在繼續發展業務。

We think that the most important thing is you have to be competitive, and we are competitive right now into the gas tank. We think that will drive the fundamentals much more than absolute policy and absolute numbers. So thanks for coming on and we'll keep you updated, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

我們認為最重要的是要保持競爭力，而我們現在在油箱方面就很有競爭力。我們認為，這比絕對的政策和絕對的數字更能推動基本面的發展。感謝您的收看，我們會隨時向您通報最新情況，下個季度再見。

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。