Gentex Corp (GNTX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Gentex Corporation Third Quarter 2024 financial results conference call.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加鏡泰公司 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Josh O'Berski, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係總監喬許‧奧伯斯基 (Josh O'Berski)。請繼續。

  • Josh O'Berski - Marketing and Investor Relations

    Josh O'Berski - Marketing and Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Gentex Corporation third quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. I'm Josh O'Berski, Gentex Director of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Steve Downing, President and CEO; Neil Boehm, CTO; and Kevin Nash, Vice President of Finance and CFO.

    謝謝。早安,歡迎參加鏡泰公司 2024 年第三季財報發布電話會議。我是鏡泰投資者關係總監 Josh O'Berski,總裁兼執行長 Steve Downing;尼爾‧博姆,首席技術長;財務副總裁兼財務長凱文‧納許 (Kevin Nash)。

  • All contents of this conference call are the property of Gentex Corporation and may not be copied, published, reproduced, rebroadcast, retransmitted, transcribed or otherwise redistributed. Gentex Corporation will hold responsible and liable any party for any damages incurred by Gentex Corporation with respect to any unauthorized use of the contents of this conference call. This conference call contains forward-looking information within the meaning of the Gentex safe harbor statement included in the Gentex Report's third quarter 2024 financial results press release from earlier this morning and as always shown on the Gentex website. Your participation in this conference call implies consent to these terms.

    本次電話會議的所有內容均為 Gentex Corporation 的財產,不得複印、出版、複製、轉播、轉發、轉錄或以其他方式重新分發。對於因未經授權使用本次電話會議內容而對 Gentex 公司造成的任何損失,Gentex 公司將追究任何一方的責任。本次電話會議包含鏡泰安全港聲明含義內的前瞻性信息,該聲明包含在今天上午早些時候發布的鏡泰報告2024 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿中,並且一如既往地在鏡泰網站上顯示。您參加本次電話會議即表示您同意這些條款。

  • I'll now hand the call over to Steve Downing for our prepared remarks. Steve?

    現在我將把電話轉給史蒂夫唐寧,讓他發表我們準備好的演講。史蒂夫?

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Josh. For the third quarter of 2024, the company reported net sales of $608.5 million compared to net sales of $575.8 million in the third quarter of last year. For the third quarter of 2024 global light vehicle production declined by 5% versus last year as light vehicle production weaken across all major regions, but especially in our primary markets.

    謝謝,喬許。2024 年第三季度,該公司報告淨銷售額為 6.085 億美元,而去年第三季淨銷售額為 5.758 億美元。2024 年第三季度,全球輕型汽車產量較去年下降 5%,因為所有主要地區的輕型汽車產量均出現疲軟,尤其是我們的主要市場。

  • When compared to the third quarter of last year, light vehicle production declined by 6% and our primary markets of North America, Europe, Japan and Korea. This decline was significantly worse than the 3% quarter over quarter decline forecasted at the beginning of the quarter.

    與去年第三季相比,輕型汽車產量下降了6%,我們的主要市場是北美、歐洲、日本和韓國。這一降幅明顯低於本季初預測的 3% 的環比降幅。

  • The light vehicle production declines resulted in a sales shortfall of approximately $25 million to $30 million for the quarter, but despite that weakness in our end markets, we are able to outperform our primary markets by 12%. for the third quarter of 2024 the gross margin was 33.5% compared to a gross margin of 33.2% for the third quarter of last year. The gross margin improved as a result of the higher revenue levels and purchasing cost reductions, which were partially offset by unfavorable product mix related to OEM mix, geographical mix and IEC versus OEC mix.

    輕型汽車產量下降導致本季銷售額缺口約 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元,但儘管我們的終端市場疲軟,但我們的表現仍優於主要市場 12%。 2024 年第三季的毛利率為 33.5%,而去年第三季的毛利率為 33.2%。由於收入水準提高和採購成本降低,毛利率有所提高,但部分被 OEM 組合、地理組合以及 IEC 與 OEC 組合相關的不利產品組合所抵消。

  • Sequentially, the gross margin improved by 60 basis points as a result of the higher sales levels versus the second quarter and lower pricing reserves and the third quarter versus the first half of this year. Overall, we are pleased with the sequential improvement in gross margin, but the third quarter was still behind our margin forecast due to lower than expected sales driven by light vehicle production shortfalls, product mix issues and overhead inefficiencies.

    隨後,由於銷售水準較第二季提高、定價儲備下降以及第三季較上半年下降,毛利率提高了 60 個基點。總體而言,我們對毛利率的連續改善感到滿意,但由於輕型汽車生產短缺、產品組合問題和管理效率低下導致銷量低於預期,第三季度仍低於我們的利潤預測。

  • We remain committed to our gross margin recovery plan that we laid out over the last 18 years months, but given the shifts in the market and light vehicle production mix, we expect that the company's margin recovery target won't be fully achieved until 2025.

    我們仍然致力於過​​去 18 年制定的毛利率恢復計劃,但考慮到市場和輕型汽車生產結構的變化,我們預計公司的利潤率恢復目標要到 2025 年才能完全實現。

  • Operating expenses during the third quarter of 2024 increased by 13% to $78.3 million compared to operating expenses of $69 million in the third quarter of last year. Operating expenses increased quarter over quarter, primarily due to staffing and engineering related professional fees that are in line with our budget for the year and are primarily dedicated to R&D and launches of new programs and products.

    2024 年第三季的營運支出成長 13%,達到 7,830 萬美元,而去年第三季的營運支出為 6,900 萬美元。營運費用較上季成長,主要是由於人員配置和工程相關的專業費用符合我們今年的預算,並且主要致力於新專案和產品的研發和推出。

  • We expect that operating expenses will continue at the current pace for the rest of this year, despite the lower than forecasted light vehicle production and sales levels we have experienced over the last two quarters. Due to the unexpected reduction in light vehicle production this year, our R&D spend has outpaced sales growth on a percentage basis, which has negatively impacted on operating margin, but as we head into 2025, our operating expense growth should moderate and move back to a normalized growth rate that has more directly correlated to say sales growth.

    儘管過去兩個季度我們的輕型汽車產量和銷售水準低於預期,但我們預計今年剩餘時間的營運支出將繼續以目前的速度成長。由於今年輕型汽車產量意外減少,我們的研發支出按百分比計算超過了銷售增長,這對營業利潤率產生了負面影響,但隨著我們進入 2025 年,我們的營業費用增長應該會放緩並回到標準化成長率與銷售成長更直接相關。

  • The growth in operating expenses being driven by several new launches that are currently in development and expected to launch over the next two years and will provide growth opportunities for the company over the next several years as well as research projects in support of new technologies that we have showcased at CES the last few years.

    營運費用的成長是由目前正在開發並預計將在未來兩年內推出的幾項新產品推動的,這些新產品將為公司在未來幾年內提​​供成長機會以及支持我們的新技術的研究項目過去幾年在CES 上都有展示。

  • Income from operations in the third quarter of 2024 was $125.7 million compared to income from operation $122.5 million for the third quarter of last year. other income was $19.7million during the third quarter 2024 compared to other income of $2.1 million in the third quarter of last year. The change was primarily driven by non-cash gains of $14.5 million resulting from mark-to-market adjustments and other of market adjustments of certain holdings within the company's tech investment portfolio as well as interest income from the company's investment portfolio.

    2024 年第三季的營運收入為 1.257 億美元,而去年第三季的營運收入為 1.225 億美元。 2024 年第三季的其他收入為 1,970 萬美元,而去年第三季的其他收入為 210 萬美元。這項變更主要是由公司科技投資組合中某些持股的按市價調整和其他市場調整產生的 1,450 萬美元非現金收益以及公司投資組合的利息收入所推動的。

  • During the third quarter of 2024 for the company had an effective tax rate of 15.7%, which is primarily driven by the benefit of the foreign-derived intangible income deduction. Net income for the third quarter of 2024 was $122.5 million a 17% increase compared to net income of $104.7 million for the third quarter of last year. The increase in net income for the third quarter was driven by the increased net sales, income from operations and other income compared to the third quarter of last year.

    2024年第三季度,該公司的有效稅率為15.7%,這主要是由外國無形收入扣除的好處所推動的。2024 年第三季淨利為 1.225 億美元,比去年第三季淨利 1.047 億美元成長 17%。與去年第三季相比,第三季淨利的成長是由於淨銷售額、營運收入和其他收入的成長所致。

  • Earnings per diluted share for the third quarter of 2024 were $0.53, an 18% increase compared to earnings per diluted share of $0.45 for the third quarter of last year. Earnings per diluted share for the third quarter of 2024 were positively impacted by the increased net sales and operating income, as well as the increases in other income for the quarter.

    2024 年第三季稀釋後每股收益為 0.53 美元,較去年第三季稀釋後每股收益 0.45 美元成長 18%。2024 年第三季的稀釋每股收益受到淨銷售額和營業收入增加以及該季度其他收入增加的正面影響。

  • Thank you, and I'll now hand the call over to Kevin for some further financial results.

    謝謝,我現在將把電話轉給凱文,以獲取更多財務結果。

  • Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Thanks, Steve. Automotive, net sales in the third quarter of '24 were $596.5 million compared to $564.5 million in the third quarter of '23. Auto-dimming mirror unit shipments decreased by 3% during the third quarter of '24 compared to the third quarter of '23.

    謝謝,史蒂夫。汽車領域,24 年第三季的淨銷售額為 5.965 億美元,而 23 年第三季的淨銷售額為 5.645 億美元。與 2023 年第三季相比,24 年第三季自動調光鏡單位出貨量下降了 3%。

  • Other net sales in the third quarter of 2024, which includes dimmable aircraft windows and fire protection products were $12 million compared to other net sales of $11.3 million in the third quarter of '23. Fire protection sales increased by $1.8 million for the third quarter of '24 compared to the third quarter of last year, and dimmable aircraft window sales decreased by $1.9 million for the third quarter of '24 compared to the third quarter of '23.

    2024 年第三季的其他淨銷售額(包括可調光飛機窗戶和消防產品)為 1,200 萬美元,而 2023 年第三季的其他淨銷售額為 1,130 萬美元。與去年第三季相比,24 年第三季的消防銷售額增加了 180 萬美元,與 23 年第三季相比,24 年第三季可調光飛機窗戶銷售額減少了 190 萬美元。

  • Additionally, in the third quarter of '24, the Company recorded its first official sales of medical devices of $0.8 million from shipments of the previously acquired recycled product line and business. Share repurchases, during the third quarter of '24, the company repurchased 3.2 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $30.16 per share as of September 30, '24, the company has approximately 10.1 million shares remaining available for repurchase pursuant to its previously announced share repurchase plan.

    此外,在 2024 年第三季度,該公司首次透過先前收購的回收產品線和業務的出貨量記錄了 80 萬美元的醫療器材官方銷售額。股票回購,在 2024 年第三季度,公司以每股 30.16 美元的平均價格回購了 320 萬股普通股,截至 24 年 9 月 30 日,公司仍有約 1,010 萬股可供回購。先前宣布的股票回購計畫。

  • The company intends to continue to repurchase additional shares of its common stock in the future, in support of the previously disclosed capital allocation strategy for share repurchases will vary from time to time, and we'll take into account macroeconomic issues, market trends and other factors the company deems appropriate.

    公司擬在未來繼續回購其普通股,以支持先前揭露的股份回購的資本配置策略將不時變化,我們將考慮宏觀經濟問題、市場趨勢等公司認為適當的因素。

  • Looking at the balance sheet, the balance sheet comparisons mentioned today or as of September 30, '24 and compared to December 31, 2023. Cash and cash equivalents were $179.6 million compared to $226.4 million. Short and long-term investments combined were $346.1 million, up from $299.1 million, which includes fixed income investments as well as the company's equity and cost method investments.

    查看資產負債表,今天提到的資產負債表比較或截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的資產負債表與 2023 年 12 月 31 日的比較。現金及現金等價物為 1.796 億美元,去年同期為 2.264 億美元。短期和長期投資合計為 3.461 億美元,高於 2.991 億美元,其中包括固定收益投資以及公司的權益和成本法投資。

  • Accounts receivable was $356.3 million, up from $321.8 million due to the timing of sales during the third quarter. Inventories were $449.3 million, up from $402.5 million and accounts payable decreased to $182.6 million from $184.4 million.

    由於第三季的銷售時間,應收帳款為 3.563 億美元,高於 3.218 億美元。庫存為 4.493 億美元,高於 4.025 億美元,應付帳款從 1.844 億美元減少至 1.826 億美元。

  • Looking at the preliminary cash flow items for the quarter. Third quarter 2024 for cash flow from operations was $84.7 million compared to $125.9 million in third quarter of last year and year to date, cash flow from operations was $343.8 million compared to $367.7 million for calendar year '23.

    查看本季的初步現金流量項目。2024 年第三季營運現金流為 8,470 萬美元,去年第三季為 1.259 億美元,今年迄今,營運現金流為 3.438 億美元,而 23 日曆年為 3.677 億美元。

  • Capital expenditures for the third quarter were $39.3 million compared to $31.1 million for the third quarter of last year and year to date, capital expenditures were $103 million compared to $121.4 million for calendar year '23. And depreciation and amortization for the third quarter was $22.9 million compared with $22.2 million for the third quarter of '23 and year to date, depreciation and amortization was $70.9 million compared to the $71 million for year to date '23.

    第三季的資本支出為 3,930 萬美元,去年第三季為 3,110 萬美元,今年迄今,資本支出為 1.03 億美元,而 23 日曆年為 1.214 億美元。第三季的折舊和攤提為2,290 萬美元,而2023 年第三季的折舊和攤提為2,220 萬美元,而年初至今,折舊和攤提為7,090 萬美元,而23 年至今的折舊和攤銷為7100 萬美元。

  • I'll now hand the call over to Neil for a product update.

    我現在將把電話轉給尼爾以獲取產品更新。

  • Neil Boehm - Chief Technology Officer, Vice President - Engineering

    Neil Boehm - Chief Technology Officer, Vice President - Engineering

  • Thank you, Kevin. The third quarter of 2024 was again a busy launch quarter. In the quarter, we had 25 net new name plate launches of our interior and exterior auto-dimming mirrors and electronic features. For first three quarters of '24 have been extremely busy as we launch more projects than ever before. We're excited about the continued growth we're seeing with our technologies and appreciate all the hard work and dedication that the team at Gentex is putting in to ensure we execute flawlessly.

    謝謝你,凱文。2024 年第三季再次是繁忙的發布季度。本季度,我們淨推出了 25 個關於內外自動調光鏡和電子功能的新銘牌。2024 年的前三個季度非常忙碌,因為我們啟動了比以往更多的專案。我們對科技的持續成長感到興奮,並感謝 Gentex 團隊為確保我們完美執行所做的所有辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

  • The full display mirror product had another great quarter with nine additional nameplates launching in the quarter. We're now shipping full display mirror on over 124 name plates globally, and it continues to have great momentum on the full range of platforms from luxury to volume brands.

    全螢幕鏡面產品又迎來了一個偉大的季度,該季度推出了另外九個銘牌。我們現在在全球超過 124 個品牌上提供全螢幕後視鏡,並且在從奢侈品牌到大眾品牌的全系列平台上繼續保持強勁勢頭。

  • Even with all the changes and light vehilce production, we are still on track in 2024 to achieve our goal of an incremental 500,000 units of full display mirror over the 2023-unit shipments. Also lower, launching a lot of products and technologies, we are continuing to evaluate opportunities to reduce the bill of material of existing programs, as well as execute from the VA/VE launches we currently have in process.

    即使發生了所有的變化和輕型汽車的生產,我們仍然預計在 2024 年實現我們的目標,即在 2023 年的基礎上增加 500,000 台全顯示後視鏡的出貨量。此外,推出大量產品和技術,我們正在繼續評估減少現有計劃材料清單的機會,並從我們目前正在進行的 VA/VE 啟動中執行。

  • This focus and effort will increase significantly as we move through the last part of 2024 and into early 2025. As we know that these improvements in our bill of materials and increases in efficiencies across the organization are key to our ability to achieve our gross margin objectives as a company.

    隨著 2024 年下半年和 2025 年初的到來,這種關注和努力將顯著增加。我們知道,物料清單的這些改進和整個組織效率的提高是我們實現公司毛利率目標的關鍵。

  • I'll now hand the call back over to Steve for guidance and closing remarks.

    現在,我將把電話轉回給史蒂夫,以獲得指導和結束語。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Neil. The company's current forecast for light vehicle production for the fourth quarter of 2024 and full years, 2024 and 2025 are based on the mid-October 2024 S&P Global mobility forecast for light vehicle production in North America, Europe, Japan, Korea and China.

    謝謝,尼爾。該公司目前對 2024 年第四季以及 2024 年和 2025 年全年輕型汽車產量的預測是基於 2024 年 10 月中旬標準普爾全球移動對北美、歐洲、日本、韓國和中國輕型汽車產量的預測。

  • Light vehicle production in these markets is expected to decrease by approximately 4% for the fourth quarter of 2024 versus the same quarter last year. While light vehicle production in our primary markets of North America, Europe, Japan and Korea is expected to be down 6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to last year. For calendar year 2024 light vehicle production in North America, Europe, Japan, Korea and China is now forecasted to decline approximately 2% compared to the light vehicle production last year.

    預計 2024 年第四季這些市場的輕型汽車產量將比去年同期下降約 4%。而北美、歐洲、日本和韓國等主要市場的輕型汽車產量預計到 2024 年第四季將比去年下降 6%。目前預計 2024 年北美、歐洲、日本、韓國和中國的輕型汽車產量將比去年下降約 2%。

  • Light vehicle production for calendar year 2025 is forecasted to increase by 1% compared to calendar year 2024. FOurth quarter 2024 and calendar years 2024 and 2025, iForecasted vehicle production volumes from S&P Global mobility are included in our press release from this morning.

    預計 2025 年的輕型汽車產量將比 2024 年增加 1%。今天早上我們發布的新聞稿中包含了 S&P Global moving iForecasted 2024 年第四季以及 2024 年和 2025 年的汽車產量。

  • Based on this light vehicle production forecast and actual results for the first nine months of 2024, we are making certain changes to our previously provided guidance for calendar year 2024 as follows.

    根據輕型汽車產量預測和 2024 年前 9 個月的實際結果,我們將對先前提供的 2024 日曆年指導做出以下某些更改。

  • Revenue for the year is now expected to be between $2.35 billion and $2.4 billion. Gross margins for the year are now expected to be between 33.5% and 34%. Operating expenses are still expected to be between $295 million and $305 million. Our estimated annual tax rate is now forecasted to be between 15% and 15.5%. Capital expenditures are now expected to be between $150 million and $175 million. Depreciation and amortization is now forecasted to be between $90 million and $95 million .

    目前預計今年的營收將在 23.5 億美元至 24 億美元之間。目前預計今年的毛利率在 33.5% 至 34% 之間。預計營運費用仍將在 2.95 億美元至 3.05 億美元之間。我們預計年稅率目前預計在 15% 至 15.5% 之間。目前預計資本支出在 1.5 億至 1.75 億美元之間。目前預計折舊和攤銷將在 9,000 萬美元至 9,500 萬美元之間。

  • The company continues to be on pace for record revenue in '24 and '25, despite significant changes in the light vehicle production environment, vehicle mix and regional mix that have impacted the production landscape. Obviously, the actual and forecasted light vehicle production deterioration has impacted our total revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025, but our 12% outperformance versus the underlying vehicle production numbers in our primary markets during the third quarter gives us renewed confidence in our ability to continue to outperform the market.

    儘管輕型汽車生產環境、車輛結構和區域結構發生了重大變化,影響了生產格局,但該公司在 24 年和 25 年繼續保持創紀錄的收入。顯然,實際和預測的輕型汽車產量惡化影響了我們對2024 年和2025 年的總收入預測,但第三季度我們的主要市場的基礎車輛產量比我們高出12%,這讓我們對繼續保持領先地位的能力重新充滿信心。

  • While the teams have done a phenomenal job creating and executing our margin recovery plan, industry conditions have created a slower growth environment that we intend to address with increased cost focused, expense control and lower capital expenditures that more closely align with our updated revenue expectations. As we have in vacated the timeline to achieve our targeted gross margin of 35% to 36% will likely push into the 2025 calendar year, but we remain confident in our ability to accomplish our stated goal despite the industry headwinds.

    雖然團隊在製定和執行我們的利潤恢復計劃方面做得非常出色,但行業狀況造成了成長放緩的環境,我們打算透過增加成本重點、費用控制和降低資本支出來解決這個問題,從而與我們最新的收入預期更加一致。由於我們已經騰出了實現 35% 至 36% 毛利率目標的時間表,因此可能會推遲到 2025 年,但儘管面臨行業阻力,我們仍然對實現既定目標的能力充滿信心。

  • That completes our prepared comments for today, and we can now proceed to questions.

    我們今天準備好的評論就完成了,現在我們可以開始提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Luke Junk, Baird.

    路克垃圾,貝爾德。

  • Luke Junk - Analyst

    Luke Junk - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for taking the questions and good morning, everyone.

    偉大的。感謝大家提出問題,大家早安。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning

    早安

  • Luke Junk - Analyst

    Luke Junk - Analyst

  • To start with, hoping you could just walk us through the key outgrowth drivers this quarter. Just a few points of growth in underlying your shipments in terms of outgrowth. It seems like FDM was a big contributor. Maybe if you could expand on FDM puts and takes and also just the factors supporting your unchanged full year expectation and what's obviously a pretty dynamic market. And beyond FDM, anything else that you'd call out that had an outsized impact this quarter? Thank you.

    首先,希望您能向我們介紹本季的主要成長驅動因素。就產出而言,您的出貨量只有幾個成長點。FDM 似乎起了很大的作用。也許如果您可以擴展 FDM 的看跌期權和看跌期權,以及支持您不變的全年預期的因素以及顯然是一個相當活躍的市場。除了 FDM 之外,您認為還有哪些因素對本季產生了巨大影響?謝謝。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. If you look at -- thats Luke. If you look at the actual quarter, like we referenced in the table, IEC and OEC volumes were actually down on a year-over-year basis, but FDM helped pick up the rest of that difference. There's also some other advanced features that did well in the quarter. But if you actually look at the bulk of that growth came from FDM growth.

    是的。如果你看——那就是盧克。如果你看一下實際季度,就像我們在表中提到的那樣,IEC 和 OEC 的銷量實際上同比下降,但 FDM 幫助彌補了其餘的差異。還有一些其他高級功能在本季表現良好。但如果你真正觀察一下,大部分成長來自 FDM 成長。

  • Luke, I think you also might have mentioned a question about like OEM side. So I mean, obviously, there were some ups and downs in the quarter based on different OEMs and how they performed. GM was quite strong, especially on the FDM side for us in the quarter. There's a couple of others that obviously struggled not only with overall production volumes, but also some featuring content that caused some headwinds in the quarter.

    Luke,我想你可能也提到了一個關於 OEM 方面的問題。所以我的意思是,顯然,根據不同的原始設備製造商及其表現,本季出現了一些起伏。通用汽車相當強大,尤其是本季我們在 FDM 方面。還有一些其他公司顯然不僅在整體產量方面陷入困境,而且一些特色內容在本季造成了一些阻力。

  • Luke Junk - Analyst

    Luke Junk - Analyst

  • Understood. And then for my follow-up, Steve, just a bigger picture question on OpEx. I mean what's become an increasingly challenging backdrop, as you alluded to in your comments, OpEx growth this year still looks a lot like it did in '22 and '23 when production was growing high single digits and overall pushing around 13% of sales this year. Just as you now contemplate the lower industry growth next year as well, plus the gross margin improvement just being pushed out a little bit.

    明白了。接下來,史蒂夫,我想問一個關於營運支出的宏觀問題。我的意思是,正如您在評論中提到的那樣,在一個日益具有挑戰性的背景下,今年的營運支出成長看起來仍然很像22 年和23 年,當時產量以高個位數成長,整體推動了銷售額的13% 左右。正如您現在考慮明年行業成長也會下降一樣,加上毛利率的改善只是被推遲了一點。

  • Can you just double-click on the opportunities to rationalize spending. I realize there's still a lot of balls in the year from an engineering standpoint right now as you drive towards those launches in the next couple of years, but can you just help us understand the path to slowing the growth rate in OpEx next year?

    您可以雙擊合理化支出的機會嗎?我意識到,從工程的角度來看,今年仍然有很多事情要做,因為您將在未來幾年內推動這些產品的發布,但您能否幫助我們了解明年營運支出成長率放緩的路徑?

  • And just as a percentage of sales more broadly, where you think that ought to be on a more strategic standpoint as well? Thank you.

    就像更廣泛的銷售額百分比一樣,您認為也應該從更具策略性的角度來看?謝謝。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, it's a great question. If you look at our strategy as it relates to especially the R&D spend, if you look at OpEx, the SG&A side has actually been much more muted. Most of that money has been dedicated to our R&D expenses. And really, it's been driven by commitments that we've already made to customers, committed timelines on launches of a lot of the new features. We've got several launches right now of our DMS and CMS cabin management solution. Those are obviously very in-depth launches, continued launches on the FDM front.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。如果你看看我們的策略,因為它特別與研發支出相關,如果你看看營運支出,SG&A 方面實際上要低調得多。大部分資金都用於我們的研發費用。實際上,這是由我們已經向客戶做出的承諾以及推出許多新功能的時間表所推動的。我們現在已經推出了多次 DMS 和 CMS 客艙管理解決方案。這些顯然是非常深入的發布,是 FDM 領域的持續發布。

  • And then more on the R side, you have a lot of the stuff that we've showed at CES that continues to consume resources that we continue to make great progress in the development of those technologies and are very optimistic about their ability to get to market over the next several years.

    然後在 R 方面,我們在 CES 上展示的很多東西都在持續消耗資源,我們在這些技術的開發中繼續取得巨大進展,並且對它們實現這些目標的能力非常樂觀。

  • As you -- so that's kind of the current commitments that are driving the rate to stay where it was and not trying to cut that because of the opportunities we see for growth from those developments, but then also the already customer committed developments that we have in place. Some of them are also the PLACE product that we talked about.

    作為您,這就是當前的承諾,推動利率保持在原來的水平,而不是試圖削減利率,因為我們從這些開發中看到了增長的機會,而且我們已經擁有客戶承諾的開發就位。其中一些也是我們談到的PLACE產品。

  • So if you look at the eSight launch, so our first medtech launch and then also our PLACE products, the detector product for a consumer, we've continued to work on those and are approaching launches on many of those. And that's part of the reason why we see the ability to control that spend or at least the growth rate of that spend as we head into 2025.

    因此,如果你看看eSight 的發布,我們的第一個醫療技術發布,然後還有我們的PLACE 產品(面向消費者的探測器產品),我們將繼續致力於這些產品,並且即將推出其中許多產品。這就是為什麼我們看到有能力在進入 2025 年時控制該支出或至少控制該支出的成長率。

  • We know that a lot of the programs that we've been in heavy development on will be launching. And so we'll be able to redeploy some of those resources to new programs. But also, we've had to add a lot of contractors to help get us over this hurdle rate. And so as we move through those launches and as they move into production, we'll be able to readdress what does that staffing level look like, what are the appropriate spends, and what is it more of a maintenance level of R&D that we need based off the future direction of the company.

    我們知道,我們一直在大力開發的許多項目都將啟動。因此,我們將能夠將其中一些資源重新部署到新計劃中。而且,我們還必須增加大量承包商來幫助我們克服這個障礙。因此,當我們完成這些發布並投入生產時,我們將能夠重新解決人員配置水準是什麼樣的,適當的支出是什麼,以及我們需要的研發維護水準是什麼根據公司未來的發展方向。

  • Luke Junk - Analyst

    Luke Junk - Analyst

  • Got it. Appreciate that. And I'll leave it there. Thank you

    知道了。很欣賞這一點。我會把它留在那裡。謝謝

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks Luke.

    謝謝盧克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

    詹姆斯·皮卡里洛,法國巴黎銀行。

  • James Picariello - Analyst

    James Picariello - Analyst

  • Hi, everybody.

    大家好。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning

    早安

  • James Picariello - Analyst

    James Picariello - Analyst

  • My first question is on the implied growth over market for next year, right? So this year's guidance now calls for 5 points and then for next year, you were targeting growth over market of 6 points. Now that looks -- now that's trending towards 4 points . So just what's informing your update here on the growth over market?

    我的第一個問題是明年市場的隱含成長,對嗎?因此,今年的指導現在要求 5 個點,而明年,您的目標是市場成長 6 個點。現在看起來——現在趨勢是 4 分。那麼,您關於市場成長的最新情況是怎麼樣的呢?

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Really, it's -- yeah, I think you're probably on to it, you just didn't want to say it yourself. But really, we're a little more pessimistic on what those published vehicle production volumes are. And so we would target that our outperformance is still in line with what you're seeing. We're just manually adjusting the S&P numbers more than what they've published.

    真的,是的,我想你可能已經明白了,只是你自己不想說出來。但實際上,我們對公佈的汽車產量更加悲觀一些。因此,我們的目標是我們的優異表現仍然與您所看到的一致。我們只是手動調整標準普爾數據,調整幅度超出了他們公佈的數據。

  • James Picariello - Analyst

    James Picariello - Analyst

  • Yeah. Okay. No, that's a fair comment. My follow-up, just on gross margin, so 35% to 36% achieved next year, is that frame similarly to how it was for this year, where it's achieved by a certain quarter next year? And then my very quick follow-on to that is the investment income. Within the EPS bridge here, it's been extremely choppy last quarter and this quarter. Is there stability from here on? Yeah, that's it from me. Thanks.

    是的。好的。不,這是一個公平的評論。我的後續行動,只是毛利率,明年達到35%到36%,這個框架是否與今年的情況相似,明年某個季度實現的水平?然後我很快跟進的是投資收入。在 EPS 橋樑中,上個季度和本季非常波動。從此以後穩定嗎?是的,這就是我的。謝謝。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think on that one real quick. I would say that we would expect more stability in other income as we move forward. There was two specific incidences that happened last quarter and this quarter, both of which were the exacts involved the same underlying security and that's what drove both those changes. So if you average those two out, it's fairly flat.

    是的。我很快就想到了這一點。我想說,隨著我們的前進,我們預計其他收入會更加穩定。上個季度和本季發生了兩起具體事件,這兩起事件都涉及相同的基礎安全性,這就是推動這些變化的原因。所以如果你把這兩者平均起來,那就相當平坦了。

  • And so if you take that out, we wouldn't expect that to happen again as we move forward. And then the other half of your question?

    因此,如果你把它去掉,我們就不會期望在我們前進的過程中再次發生這種情況。那你問題的另一半呢?

  • Josh O'Berski - Marketing and Investor Relations

    Josh O'Berski - Marketing and Investor Relations

  • The margin profile.

    保證金概況。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • On the margin profile. Yeah. So as we head into '25, I mean, despite all the industry production choppiness, we would expect the margin profile to really perform like it does in a normal year. So you'd see a little bit of a downturn in Q1 and then Q2, Q3, Q4, we continue to build, assuming that our sales levels hit what we're expecting them to. And so usually, by mid-second quarter, we're fully operational on PPV that we get from our supply base.

    關於邊緣輪廓。是的。因此,當我們進入 25 年時,我的意思是,儘管行業生產出現波動,但我們預計利潤率狀況將真正像正常年份一樣表現。因此,你會看到第一季略有下滑,然後是第二季、第三季、第四季度,我們將繼續建設,假設我們的銷售水準達到了我們的預期。因此,通常到第二季中期,我們可以從供應基地獲得 PPV 並全面投入營運。

  • We're through most of the pain from the customer pricing side and then we're starting to get into operational efficiencies of the new launches that are happening in the year for the year. And so probably on a -- put a thumb in the air, I would say probably the ability to hit that would be towards the back half of the year. It's not out of the line of questioning that it could happen sooner than that. But I would say that's historically when we've had our best performances is in the second half of the year.

    我們經歷了客戶定價方面的大部分痛苦,然後我們開始研究今年新推出的產品的營運效率。因此,我想說,可能要在今年下半年才能實現這個目標。毫無疑問,這種情況可能會比這更早發生。但我想說,從歷史上看,我們最好的表現是在下半年。

  • James Picariello - Analyst

    James Picariello - Analyst

  • Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

    欣賞它。謝謝,夥計們。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks James.

    謝謝詹姆斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

    瑞安·布林克曼,摩根大通。

  • Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

    Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

  • Hi, great. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to check in with you on what the impact might have been on your operations during the quarter from sudden or unexpected customer downtime, whether due to part shortages or their need to manage inventory levels and how that compares to what your experience was in 2Q and what you might be expecting in 4Q? I recall you calling out Stellantis inventory adjustments in June as having impacted 2Q. That company has made some additional announcements and you've seen some announcements from BMW and VW and Mercedes. Just curious what your experience has been there.

    嗨,太好了。感謝您提出我的問題。只是想與您核實一下,客戶突然或意外停機(無論是由於零件短缺還是需要管理庫存水平)可能會對您在本季度的運營產生哪些影響,以及與您在第二季度的體驗相比如何您對第四季的預期是什麼?我記得您曾指出 Stellantis 六月的庫存調整影響了第二季。該公司還發布了一些額外的公告,您也看到了寶馬、大眾和梅賽德斯的一些公告。只是好奇你在那裡的經歷是什麼。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • The good news is -- you're exactly right. There are definitely some margin headwinds and inefficiencies driven by last-minute customer changes. The good news is, given our inventory levels and where we're at with the supply base, it really wasn't a incoming raw material problem. It's really about scheduling and trying to make sure you balance operations efficiently. And really, what the impact there is the last minute changes drive over time more than anything else. It grows inventory more than it wouldn't necessarily need to be if we had better line of sight and it also drives more overtime and inefficiencies in the operations side. Always what comes with that then is scrap and yield loss issues as well.

    好消息是──你是完全正確的。最後一刻的客戶變化肯定會帶來一些利潤阻力和效率低下。好消息是,考慮到我們的庫存水準以及我們的供應基地狀況,這確實不是原料進貨問題。這實際上是關於調度並努力確保有效地平衡營運。事實上,隨著時間的推移,最後一刻的變化所產生的影響比其他任何事情都更重要。如果我們有更好的視線,它所增加的庫存量就不一定需要增加,而且它還會導致營運方面更多的加班和效率低下。隨之而來的總是廢品和產量損失問題。

  • So you kind of hit on a couple of the key players there. Stellantis obviously, has been -- it's very turbulent and they've been -- have their own struggles that we've been trying to make sure we're supporting them through but it definitely doesn't allow for the cleanest operating environment. And so I would say probably, if you look at our -- between our overhead and scrap and yield increases, I would say probably 30 basis points , 50 basis points of headwind was in the quarter from volatility.

    所以你有點擊中了那裡的幾個關鍵人物。顯然,Stellantis 一直在——非常動盪,他們也一直在——有自己的鬥爭,我們一直在努力確保我們支持他們度過難關,但這絕對不允許最乾淨的營運環境。因此,我想說,如果你看看我們的管理費用、廢品和收益率成長之間的情況,我會說,本季波動性可能會帶來 30 個基點、50 個基點的阻力。

  • Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

    Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

  • Okay. That's super helpful. Thanks. And then I just wanted to check in on some more questions around the other income, super impressive. At the same time, are you able to say whether this was a mark-to-market on a public security or on private security? And if private, was that a mark that was established by an external party? Or did you sort of perceive the need to make a change? I'm not sure how that accounting works?

    好的。這非常有幫助。謝謝。然後我只是想檢查更多有關其他收入的問題,非常令人印象深刻。同時,您能否說一下,這是以市價計價的公共證券還是私人證券?如果是私有的,那麼這是一個由外部團體建立的標記嗎?還是您意識到需要做出改變?我不知道會計是如何運作的?

  • And then more broadly, what is your -- well, first of all, is it related to automotive technology and so you need to make those investments? Or is it just you're invested in the future of yours? And what's your general approach? I know you've returned a lot of capital to shareholders relative to your predecessors. But your general approach towards managing long-term investments on the balance sheet versus giving that capital to the investors to invest at their discretion.

    然後更廣泛地說,你的是什麼——嗯,首先,它與汽車技術相關嗎?還是只是你對自己的未來進行了投資?您的一般方法是什麼?我知道相對於你的前任,你已經向股東返還了大量資本。但是,您在資產負債表上管理長期投資的一般方法與將資本提供給投資者自行決定投資不同。

  • Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Yeah. So we talked a little bit about it last quarter. I mean we're in one public security, and we -- it's publicly filed out there that we made an offer for VOXX back in May. And subsequent to that -- prior to that, actually, they had a -- their stock price traded down significantly. And so we actually made a -- we bought more shares in a private transaction and since then, the stock price has gone up.

    是的。所以我們上個季度對此進行了一些討論。我的意思是,我們屬於一個公共安全部門,我們在 5 月就公開提出了 VOXX 的收購要約。隨後——實際上,在此之前——他們的股價大幅下跌。所以我們實際上做了——我們在私人交易中購買了更多股票,從那時起,股價就上漲了。

  • And they've since also entered into a deal to market the company. And so we're participating -- currently participating in that process. But you saw the mark-to-market adjustments from the Q2 on the downward side and then in Q3 a rebound. And so it is a publicly traded stock. So it's a mark-to-market adjustment.

    此後他們也達成了一項行銷該公司的協議。所以我們正在參與——目前正在參與這個過程。但你看到按市值計算的調整從第二季開始向下,然後在第三季反彈。因此它是公開交易的股票。所以這是一個以市值計價的調整。

  • The rest of the other income, our long-term strategy really there is we do invest in fixed income investments, high-yield fixed income with typically three years or less horizon. So we stay in the medium term on the yield curve, not to create due risk and be able to liquidate if we need to. And we've been doing that for several years. This one on the public stock side is strategic in nature. And just to further clarify we are -- they do have some technology we're interested on the biometric side.

    其餘的其他收入,我們的長期策略實際上是我們投資於固定收益投資,通常是三年或更短期限的高收益固定收益。因此,我們將中期留在殖利率曲線上,而不是創造適當的風險,並在需要時能夠清算。我們這樣做已經好幾年了。公開股票方面的這項舉措本質上是策略性的。為了進一步澄清我們——他們確實擁有一些我們在生物辨識方面感興趣的技術。

  • They do have some automotive business with some stuff that does have some technology as well as some other technologies that they have under their portfolio.

    他們確實擁有一些汽車業務,其中一些產品確實擁有一些技術,以及他們的產品組合中擁有的其他一些技術。

  • Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

    Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

  • And what is their general relationship with you, too? Are they a distributor of your products? Do they manage the sales to some of your customers as you would incorporate them then? Would there be some sort of margin enhancement from vertical integration, but not as much sales impact? How would that work generally?

    他們與您的一般關係又如何?他們是你們產品的經銷商嗎?他們是否會像您合併他們一樣管理對您的某些客戶的銷售?垂直整合是否會帶來某種程度的利潤提升,但對銷售的影響卻沒有那麼大?一般情況下,這會如何運作?

  • Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Yeah. So for a long time, they have been a distributor of ours for our products into the aftermarket. So FDM, HomeLink, some of our other featured mirrors, they've been -- they have a great distribution network. And so we've taken advantage of that for a long time. But they also own biometric asset formerly known as EyeLock in the aerospace.

    是的。因此,長期以來,他們一直是我們產品進入售後市場的經銷商。因此,FDM、HomeLink 以及我們的其他一些特色鏡子,它們擁有強大的分銷網絡。所以我們長期以來一直利用這一點。但他們也擁有以前在航空航太領域被稱為 EyeLock 的生物辨識資產。

  • And so you've seen us demonstrate that technology for a long time. Today, we do it with licensing and technology agreements, but we have an interest in taking that further over time. So that's a big part of it is potential for more access to the technology assets.

    所以你已經看到我們長期以來展示了這項技術。今天,我們透過許可和技術協議來做到這一點,但我們有興趣隨著時間的推移進一步推進這一點。因此,其中很大一部分是有更多機會獲得技術資產的潛力。

  • Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

    Ryan Brinkman - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you so much.

    好的。太感謝了。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks Ryan.

    謝謝瑞安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Jewsikow, Guggenheim Securities.

    羅納德‧朱斯蒂科 (Ronald Jewikow),古根漢證券公司。

  • Ronald Jewsikow - Analyst

    Ronald Jewsikow - Analyst

  • Yeah. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to make -- maybe just following up on Luke's question on FDM, the kind of upside this quarter. Was that more of a function of second quarter destocking and just kind of returning to trend this quarter? Or are there some upcoming launches we should be excited about?

    是的。早安,感謝您提出我的問題。我想——也許只是跟進盧克關於 FDM 的問題,本季的這種好處。這是否更多是第二季去庫存的結果,只是本季回歸趨勢的結果?或者是否有一些即將推出的產品值得我們興奮?

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • You probably have that list of launches right in front of you, it would be my guess. But like Neil mentioned, there were actually nine launches -- nine new nameplates launched in the quarter. And so yeah, some of those we are pretty excited about. Like I did mention earlier in that question, too, our GM, FDM volume was quite strong in the quarter. It was -- we did have some headwinds from some other OEs who had some issues but all in all, if you look at the growth, both with existing customers, especially GM that happened in the quarter and then also followed on with the launches that Neil referenced, it was a very strong FDM quarter.

    我的猜測是,您的面前可能擺著一份發布清單。但正如尼爾所提到的,實際上有九次發布——本季度推出了九個新銘牌。是的,其中一些我們非常興奮。正如我之前在該問題中提到的那樣,本季我們的 GM、FDM 銷售相當強勁。我們確實遇到了來自其他一些原始設備製造商的一些阻力,他們遇到了一些問題,但總而言之,如果你看看現有客戶的成長情況,尤其是通用汽車在本季度發生的情況,然後還推出了Neil 提到,這是一個非常強勁的FDM 季度。

  • Ronald Jewsikow - Analyst

    Ronald Jewsikow - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just as we go into the fourth quarter, one of your supplier peers yesterday sounded quite pessimistic on kind of the European production environment. And I do think there was a bit of a luxury bend to that softness. I guess is that something you're seeing? And is there conservatism embedded in your fourth quarter guide to kind of reflect this just given you do ship obviously more outside mirrors, particularly to luxury customers?

    好的。然後,就在我們進入第四季時,你們的一位供應商同業昨天聽起來對歐洲生產環境相當悲觀。我確實認為這種柔軟有一點奢侈的傾向。我想這就是你所看到的嗎?鑑於您確實運送了明顯更多的外後視鏡,特別是針對奢侈品客戶,您的第四季度指南中是否嵌入了保守主義以反映這一點?

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I would say, yes, we're definitely a little more on the pessimistic side as it relates to that market right now. I don't know that I would go quite as far as the quotes that you referenced, at least that our impact to us isn't that severe. But yeah, there's definitely some risk factors there. The good news is, if you look at our exposure into the European market, it's pretty well diversified.

    是的。我想說,是的,我們現在肯定更悲觀一些,因為它與目前的市場有關。我不知道我是否會像你引用的那樣走得那麼遠,至少我們對我們的影響沒有那麼嚴重。但是,是的,那裡肯定存在一些風險因素。好消息是,如果你看看我們在歐洲市場的投資,你會發現它相當多元化。

  • So we're not overweight really any one OEM. And so as long as there's good geographical mix and as long as the market itself isn't down huge, we should be able to weather that storm fairly well.

    因此,我們實際上並沒有超重任何一家 OEM。因此,只要有良好的地理組合,只要市場本身沒有大幅下跌,我們就應該能夠很好地度過這場風暴。

  • Ronald Jewsikow - Analyst

    Ronald Jewsikow - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions.

    完美的。感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Ron.

    謝謝,羅恩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Nichols, B. Riley.

    喬許·尼科爾斯,B·萊利。

  • Josh Nichols - Analyst

    Josh Nichols - Analyst

  • Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Just to touch on some of the R&D initiatives. I know driver monitoring and cabin monitoring are big focal points that you guys talked about. Earlier on the company's Investor Day, you were talking about having at least one commercial launch ready. I'm just curious like the expectations in terms of timing and revenue generation, whether I presume starting with driver monitoring and maybe moving to cabin monitoring for next year. I would assume that could be somewhere in like the tens of millions of dollars. And is that really built into the model today? Or is that just kind of an upside optionality at this point?

    是的。感謝您提出我的問題。只是談一些研發計劃。我知道駕駛監控和駕駛室監控是你們談論的重點。在公司投資者日早些時候,您談到至少準備一項商業發布。我只是好奇對時間和創收的期望,我是否認為從駕駛監控開始,也許明年轉向駕駛室監控。我認為這可能是數千萬美元。這真的已經融入到今天的模型中了嗎?或者說這只是目前的一種上行選擇?

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So if you look, I would say in terms of magnitude, you're right in the -- if for '25, that's about the right dollar amount to be thinking about for '25. Remember, though, at the end of '25, will really be our kind of second launch into '25, beginning in '26. And then throughout '26 and beyond, we expect to have at least one more OEM launch and so we're probably talking late '26, early '27 before it's a material amount of revenue, but the work is right now.

    是的。因此,如果你看的話,我會說,就規模而言,你是對的——如果是 25 年,那麼這就是 25 年所考慮的正確美元金額。但請記住,到 25 年底,我們將真正進入 25 年,從 26 年開始。然後在整個 26 年及以後,我們預計將至少再推出一款 OEM 產品,因此我們可能會在 26 年末、27 年初討論,然後才能獲得大量收入,但工作正在進行中。

  • Josh Nichols - Analyst

    Josh Nichols - Analyst

  • And then just based on your comments earlier, right, I mean you're building in a little bit of additional, it sounds like buffer for conservatism in regards to the forecast for next year, but that just kind of implies. Well, you've had some really phenomenal FDM outperformance this year that's kind of been driving most of the light vehicle production upside outperformance that you guys have achieved.

    然後,根據您先前的評論,對吧,我的意思是您正在增加一點額外的內容,這聽起來像是對明年預測的保守主義緩衝,但這只是暗示。嗯,今年你們在 FDM 方面取得了一些非常驚人的表現,這在某種程度上推動了你們所取得的大部分輕型汽車生產的上行表現。

  • Do you expect that to be effectively continue at the same type of pace that you're seeing this year? Is that really just driven by an increasing adoption rate across these higher volume production vehicles that you're starting to see more than whenever this offering first came out some years ago?

    您預計這種情況會以今年的相同速度繼續下去嗎?這真的只是由於這些大批量生產車輛的採用率不斷提高而推動的嗎?

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, if you look at those first, really, three to four years of FDM production, it was really overweight luxury vehicles and full-size SUVs. Now as we move into more pickup trucks and also higher volume vehicles, really, what's great about the FDM story is it's a little more transcendent of a product than what we've had in the past. Really, if you look at our company's entire history, most of our products, it takes 7 to 10 years to matriculate out of just luxury and into volume brands. . This technology is a little different.

    是的,如果你看看最初的三到四年的 FDM 生產,你會發現它確實是超重的豪華車和全尺寸 SUV。現在,隨著我們轉向更多的皮卡車和更大容量的車輛,FDM 故事的偉大之處在於它比我們過去擁有的產品更加卓越。確實,如果你看看我們公司的整個歷史,我們的大部分產品,你會發現,從奢侈品牌進入大眾品牌需要 7 到 10 年的時間。。這項技術有點不同。

  • I mean, it fits so many use cases and the desire from consumers. And so it's been definitely a faster growth rate than we would have anticipated. If you go back seven, eight years ago, I don't think we probably could have optimistically thought of something like this, but I don't think we probably could have capacitized around that optimism. OEM interest is definitely there. And so we continue to just be really grateful for the success of that product has had in the market.

    我的意思是,它適合許多用例和消費者的願望。因此,成長速度肯定比我們預期的要快。如果你回到七、八年前,我認為我們可能不會樂觀地想到這樣的事情,但我認為我們可能無法圍繞這種樂觀情緒發揮作用。OEM 的興趣肯定是存在的。因此,我們仍然非常感謝該產品在市場上的成功。

  • Josh Nichols - Analyst

    Josh Nichols - Analyst

  • Appreciate it. Thanks.

    欣賞它。謝謝。

  • Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Downing - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Joseph Spak, UBS.

    約瑟夫‧斯帕克,瑞銀集團。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I just want to sort of go back to -- you mentioned the conservatism baked in to '25. And it sounds like you're baking in something similar for the fourth quarter? I just want to make sure I understand that. So it's not necessarily like the IHS or S&P numbers you sort of put in the press release here, you've made some adjustments to the fourth quarter as well.

    謝謝。大家早安。我只是想回顧一下——你提到了 25 年來的保守主義。聽起來你正在為第四季做類似的事情?我只是想確保我理解這一點。因此,它不一定像您在新聞稿中放入的 IHS 或標準普爾數字那樣,您也對第四季度進行了一些調整。

  • Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Yeah, that's correct. If you look at -- really, we kind of see Q4 looking a lot more like Q3 and so we're basically taken what happened in Q3, plus that forecast in Q4 and saying, okay, somewhere between these two sets of numbers and then a little bit of an adjustment, manual adjustment to those because we do think there's a little more risk, especially in the second half of Q4 versus what the data would show.

    是的,這是正確的。如果你看一下——實際上,我們看到第四季度看起來更像第三季度,所以我們基本上採用了第三季度發生的情況,加上第四季度的預測,然後說,好吧,介於這兩組數字之間,然後對這些進行一點調整,手動調整,因為我們確實認為風險更大,特別是在第四季度的下半年,與數據顯示的相比。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Okay. So that sort of leads me to the second question, which is here, just doing the math, I mean, your guidance does sort of imply, right, fourth quarter sales flattish or maybe down a little bit at the midpoint versus third quarter. But it seems like the gross margin is 80 basis points higher. And I'm just -- I know I think you typically do have some sort of seasonal uplift. But like you mentioned in your prepared remarks, some of the mix headwinds that you've seen this quarter. So is there anything else sort of really driving that margin higher quarter-over-quarter that we should call out? Like any help in understanding some of the puts and takes would be appreciated.

    好的。因此,這讓我想到了第二個問題,在這裡,只是做數學計算,我的意思是,你的指導確實有點暗示,對吧,第四季度的銷售額與第三季度相比持平,或者可能在中點有所下降。但毛利率似乎高了80個基點。我只是——我知道我認為你通常確實會有某種季節性的提升。但正如您在準備好的發言中提到的,您在本季看到的一些混合阻力。那麼,是否還有其他因素真正推動利潤率較上月上升,值得我們去指出呢?就像任何幫助理解一些 put 和 take 的幫助一樣,我們將不勝感激。

  • Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Well, I think we definitely had some mix issues in Q3 beyond just overall volumes. And so we think some of those mix issues will probably lighten up in Q4 versus Q3, which would help us get a little bit of a tailwind. If you're comparing to Q4 last year margin, however, I would say it's not going to get there. Last year was helped, we had a lot of pricing and onetime recoveries and other things happening last year, calendar year that we're not having the same benefit from this year.

    嗯,我認為我們在第三季確實遇到了一些混合問題,而不僅僅是整體銷售問題。因此,我們認為其中一些混合問題可能會在第四季度與第三季度相比有所緩解,這將幫助我們獲得一些順風車。然而,如果你與去年第四季的利潤率進行比較,我會說它不會達到那個水平。去年我們得到了幫助,我們有很多定價和一次性回收以及去年發生的其他事情,我們今年沒有得到同樣的好處。

  • And so if you look at our recurring maintenance margin level, in essence, I would say a little bit fairly similar to what we just posted in Q3 or slightly better, would probably be like our optimistic version of what margin profile look like in Q4.

    因此,如果你看看我們的經常性維持保證金水平,本質上,我會說與我們剛剛在第三季度發布的水平相當相似或稍好一些,可能就像我們對第四季度保證金狀況的樂觀版本一樣。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. That's very helpful. Appreciate it.

    好的。謝謝。這非常有幫助。欣賞它。

  • Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

    Kevin Nash - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. I'd now like to hand the conference back over to Josh O'Berski for closing remarks.

    謝謝。現在我想將會議交還給喬許·奧伯斯基(Josh O'Berski)致閉幕詞。

  • Josh O'Berski - Marketing and Investor Relations

    Josh O'Berski - Marketing and Investor Relations

  • Thank you. As a reminder, we will be attending SEMA in November and CES in January, and we welcome investors in our booth. If you're interested in joining us at either of these events, please reach out to me. With that, this concludes our call. Thank you, everyone, and have a great weekend.

    謝謝。謹此提醒,我們將參加 11 月的 SEMA 和 1 月的 CES,歡迎投資者光臨我們的展位。如果您有興趣參加我們的這些活動,請與我聯絡。我們的通話到此結束。謝謝大家,祝週末愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。