Gentex Corp (GNTX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Gentex Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的收看。歡迎參加Gentex Reports 2022年第四季及年終財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音中。

And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Josh O'Berski, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

現在，我想把會議交給今天的演講嘉賓，投資者關係總監喬希·奧伯斯基先生。先生，請發言。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Gentex Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. I'm Josh O'Berski, Gentex's Director of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Steve Downing, President and CEO; and Neil Boehm, Vice President of Engineering and CTO; and Kevin Nash, Vice President of Finance and CFO.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加Gentex公司2022年第四季財報電話會議。我是Gentex投資者關係總監Josh O'Berski，與我一同參加會議的還有總裁兼執行長Steve Downing、工程副總裁兼首席技術長Neil Boehm以及財務副總裁兼財務長Kevin Nash。

This call is live on the Internet and can be reached by going through the Gentex's website and at ir.gentex.com. All contents of this conference call are the property of Gentex Corporation and may not be copied, published, reproduced, rebroadcast, retransmitted, transcribed or otherwise redistributed. Gentex Corporation will responsible and liable any party for any damages incurred by Gentex Corporation with respect to any unauthorized use of the contents of this conference call.

本次電話會議將透過網路直播，您可以透過Gentex公司網站和ir.gentex.com收聽。本次電話會議的所有內容均為Gentex公司的財產，不得複製、出版、翻印、轉播、轉播、轉錄或以其他方式重新分發。對於任何未經授權使用本次電話會議內容而導致Gentex公司遭受的任何損失，Gentex公司將承擔責任。

This conference call contains forward-looking information within the meaning of the Gentex safe harbor statement included in the Gentex Reports Fourth Quarter 2022 financial results press release from earlier this morning and as always shown on the Gentex's website. Your participation in this conference call implies consent to these terms.

本次電話會議包含Gentex安全港聲明中定義的前瞻性信息，該聲明包含在今天早上發布的Gentex 2022年第四季度財務業績新聞稿中，並一如既往地顯示在Gentex網站上。您參加本次電話會議即表示同意這些條款。

Now I'll turn the call over to Steve Downing, who will get us started today. Steve?

現在我將電話轉給史蒂夫唐寧 (Steve Downing)，他今天將帶領我們開始今天的活動。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Josh. For the fourth quarter of 2022, the company reported net sales of $493.6 million, an increase of 18% when compared to net sales of $419.8 million for the fourth quarter of last year. The fourth quarter of 2022 revenue included cost recoveries from customers of approximately $15 million. Light vehicle production increased by 7% quarter-over-quarter in the company's primary markets of North America, Europe and Japan and Korea, which equates to an 11% revenue outperformance versus the company's underlying markets.

謝謝你，喬希。 2022年第四季，公司淨銷售額為4.936億美元，較去年同期的4.198億美元成長18%。 2022年第四季的營收包含約1,500萬美元的客戶成本回收。在公司主要市場北美、歐洲、日韓等地，輕型汽車產量較上季成長7%，相當於營收較公司基礎市場高出11%。

The gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 31.2% compared with a gross margin of 34.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. The gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2022 was primarily impacted by raw material cost increases, unfavorable product mix and increased manufacturing costs stemming from labor cost increases and inefficiencies created by customer order volatility. The cost increases were partially offset by cost recoveries during the quarter. The fourth quarter produced sequential improvements in gross margin of 140 basis points versus the third quarter of 2022 as a result of customer cost recoveries during the quarter as well as some improvements in leveraging fixed costs.

2022年第四季毛利率為31.2%，去年同期為34.3%。 2022年第四季毛利率主要受原物料成本上漲、產品組合不合理以及人工成本上漲和客戶訂單波動導致的效率低下所導致的製造成本上升的影響。成本上漲部分被本季的成本回收所抵銷。第四季毛利率較上季提升140個基點，這得益於本季客戶成本回收以及固定成本利用率的提升。

However, margins in the quarter were negatively impacted by sales that came in below our original forecast for the quarter, unfavorable product mix and increases in manufacturing costs. Heading into 2023, we continue to see strong demand for our products, which should result in record revenue performance for the year and will assist our ongoing efforts focused on margin recovery throughout 2023 and 2024.

然而，本季的利潤率受到負面影響，原因是銷售額低於我們最初的預期、產品組合不佳以及製造成本上升。展望2023年，我們將繼續看到市場對我們產品的強勁需求，這將推動全年收入創下新高，並將有助於我們在2023年和2024年持續努力提升利潤率。

For the calendar year, we expect margins to begin the year in the range of the fourth quarter margin profile and then improve as the year progresses, ultimately ending at a weighted average margin of 32% to 33% for 2023. Operating expenses during the fourth quarter of 2022 were up 7% to $59.7 million when compared to operating expenses of $56 million in the fourth quarter of last year.

就日曆年而言，我們預計年初的利潤率將在第四季度的利潤率範圍內，然後隨著時間的推移而提高，最終在 2023 年達到 32% 至 33% 的加權平均利潤率。 2022 年第四季的營運費用為 5,970 萬美元，而去年第四季的營運費用為 5,600 萬美元，成長了 7%。

Income from operations for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $94.1 million as compared to income from operations of $88 million for the fourth quarter of last year. During the fourth quarter of 2022, the company had an effective tax rate of 9.7%, which was driven by provision to return adjustments as well as increased benefits from the foreign-derived intangible income deduction and discrete benefits from stock-based compensation.

2022年第四季的營業利潤為9,410萬美元，而去年同期的營業利潤為8,800萬美元。 2022年第四季度，公司實際稅率為9.7%，這主要得益於退稅調整撥備、外國無形收入抵扣收益的增加以及股票薪酬帶來的離散收益。

In the fourth quarter of 2022, net income was $86.2 million as compared to net income of $84.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Earnings per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2022 were $0.37 as compared with earnings per diluted share of $0.35 in the fourth quarter of 2021. For calendar year 2022, the company's net sales were $1.92 billion, which was an increase of 11% compared to net sales of $1.73 billion in calendar year 2021 and represented the highest annual sales in company history. Light vehicle production in 2022 increased by 3% when compared to last year in the company's primary markets but total revenue for the year outperformed the underlying market by 8% despite the many supply chain challenges and customer order volatility encountered during the year.

2022 年第四季淨收入為 8,620 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季淨收入為 8,420 萬美元。 2022 年第四季每股攤薄收益為 0.37 美元，而 2021 年第四季每股攤薄收益為 0.35 美元。 2022 日曆年，公司淨銷售額為 19.2 億美元，較 2021 日曆年的 17.3 億美元增長 11%，創下公司歷史上的最高年銷售額。 2022 年，該公司主要市場的輕型汽車產量與去年相比增長了 3%，但儘管年內遇到了許多供應鏈挑戰和客戶訂單波動，但全年總收入仍比基礎市場高出 8%。

For calendar year 2022, the gross margin was 31.8% compared to a gross margin of 35.8% for calendar year 2021. The largest impact to gross margin on a year-over-year basis were increased raw material costs, increased manufacturing costs, higher freight and logistics costs and certain previously agreed to annual customer price reductions. For calendar year 2022, operating expenses increased 14% to $239.8 million when compared to operating expenses of $209.9 million for last year. For calendar year 2022, the company's effective tax rate was 13.8% as compared to an effective tax rate of 13.3% last year.

2022日曆年的毛利率為31.8%，而2021日曆年的毛利率為35.8%。年比來看，對毛利率影響最大的因素包括原材料成本增加、製造成本增加、運費和物流成本上漲以及某些先前約定的年度客戶降價。 2022日曆年的營運費用增加14%，達到2.398億美元，而去年的營運費用為2.099億美元。 2022日曆年，公司有效稅率為13.8%，而去年的有效稅率為13.3%。

Net income for calendar year 2022 was $318.8 million, down 12% compared to net income of $360.8 million last year. Earnings per diluted share for calendar year 2022 were $1.36 compared to earnings per diluted share of $1.50 last year. I will now hand the call over to Kevin for fourth quarter financial details.

2022 日曆年的淨利潤為 3.188 億美元，較去年的 3.608 億美元下降 12%。 2022 年曆年的稀釋每股收益為 1.36 美元，而去年的稀釋每股收益為 1.50 美元。現在我將把電話交給 Kevin，請他報告第四季的財務細節。

Thank you, Steve. Automotive net sales during the fourth quarter of 2022 were $482.9 million as compared to $409.6 million in the fourth quarter of '21. For calendar year '22, automotive net sales were $1.87 billion, which was a 10% increase over 2021. Other net sales in the fourth quarter, which includes dimmable aircraft windows and fire protection products, were $10.7 million, an increase of 5% compared to other net sales of $10.2 million in the fourth quarter of '21. Fire Protection sales increased by 37% for the fourth quarter of '22 when compared to the fourth quarter of '21.

謝謝，史蒂夫。 2022年第四季汽車淨銷售額為4.829億美元，而2021年第四季為4.096億美元。 2022日曆年，汽車淨銷售額為18.7億美元，較2021年成長10%。第四季其他淨銷售額（包括可調光飛機窗戶和防火產品）為1,070萬美元，較2021年第四季的1,020萬美元成長5%。 2022年第四季防火產品銷售額較2021年第四季成長37%。

Other net sales for calendar year 2022 were $44.2 million compared to other net sales of $33.9 million in calendar year '21. Fire protection sales in 2022 increased by 53% year-over-year, while dimmable aircraft window sales were down 33% in '22 compared to calendar year '21.

2022日曆年的其他淨銷售額為4,420萬美元，而2021日曆年的其他淨銷售額為3,390萬美元。 2022年防火產品銷售額較去年同期成長53%，而2022年可調光飛機窗銷售額較2021日曆年下降33%。

The company expects that dimmable aircraft window sales will continue to be impacted until there is a meaningful recovery of the aerospace industry and the Boeing 787 production levels improve. Share repurchases. The company repurchased 0.8 million shares of its common stock during the fourth quarter at an average price of $27.17 per share. For the year ended December 31, '22, the company repurchased 4.04 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $28.19 per share for a total of $113.9 million.

該公司預計，在航空航太業真正復甦且波音787生產水準提高之前，可調光飛機舷窗的銷售將持續受到影響。股票回購。該公司在第四季以平均每股27.17美元的價格回購了80萬股普通股。截至2022年12月31日的財年，該公司以平均每股28.19美元的價格回購了404萬股普通股，總計1.139億美元。

As of December 31, '22, the company has 20.8 million shares remaining available for repurchase pursuant to its previously announced share repurchase plan. The company intends to continue to repurchase additional shares of its common stock in the future in support of the previously disclosed capital allocation strategy, but share repurchases may vary from time to time and will take into account macroeconomic issues, market trends and other factors the company deems appropriate. Shifting over to the balance sheet. The items mentioned today are values as of December 31, '22 and are compared to December 31, '21.

截至2022年12月31日，本公司根據先前公佈的股票回購計劃，仍有2,080萬股可供回購。公司計畫未來繼續回購更多普通股，以支持先前揭露的資本配置策略，但股票回購計畫可能會不時調整，並將綜合考慮宏觀經濟問題、市場趨勢以及公司認為合適的其他因素。接下來是資產負債表。今天提到的項目均為截至2022年12月31日的價值，並與2021年12月31日進行了比較。

Cash and cash equivalents were $214.8 million, down from $262.3 million, primarily due to capital expenditures and cash flow from operations. Short-term and long-term investments combined were $176.9 million, down from $213.1 million. Accounts receivable was $276.5 million, up from $249.8 million due to the timing of sales within the quarter. Inventories were $404.4 million, which increased from $316.3 million, primarily raw material, while up from December 31 of '21, inventory levels have decreased sequentially from $418.3 million.

現金及現金等價物為2.148億美元，低於2.623億美元，主要原因是資本支出及營運活動現金流。短期和長期投資合計為1.769億美元，低於2.131億美元。應收帳款為2.765億美元，高於2.498億美元，主要歸因於本季銷售時機的因素。庫存為4.044億美元，高於3.163億美元，主要為原料，庫存水準較2021年12月31日的4.183億美元較上季下降。

The company continues to take a measured approach of inventory management, as the supply chain constraints are starting to lessen, and the company is looking at certain areas to reduce inventory levels. However, customer order volatility still remains and forecasting in the short term remains challenging, so the company will continue to have higher levels of certain components to help manage risk and meet customer demand. And accounts payable increased to $151.7 million, up from $98.3 million primarily due to increased inventory purchases, capital expenditures and changing payment terms. Let's take a look at preliminary cash flow items for the quarter and calendar year. Fourth quarter 2022 cash flow from operations was $101.8 million which was an increase from $69.1 million in the fourth quarter of '21.

隨著供應鏈約束開始減弱，公司繼續採取審慎的庫存管理方法，並正在考慮在某些領域降低庫存水準。然而，客戶訂單波動仍然存在，短期預測依然具有挑戰性，因此公司將繼續提高某些零件的庫存水平，以幫助管理風險並滿足客戶需求。應付帳款從9,830萬美元增至1.517億美元，主要歸因於庫存採購增加、資本支出增加以及付款條件變化。讓我們來看看本季和年度的初步現金流項目。 2022年第四季的經營現金流為1.018億美元，高於2021年第四季的6,910萬美元。

And year-to-date cash flow from operations was $338.2 million compared to $362.2 million for calendar year 2021. Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $38 million compared with $30.8 million for the fourth quarter of '21 and calendar year 2022 capital expenditures were $146.4 million compared to $68.8 million for calendar year '21.

年初至今的經營現金流為 3.382 億美元，而 2021 日曆年為 3.622 億美元。第四季的資本支出為 3,800 萬美元，而 2021 日曆年第四季為 3,080 萬美元，2022 日曆年的資本支出為 1.464 億美元，而 2021 日曆年為 6,880 萬美元。

And depreciation and amortization for the fourth quarter was $23.3 million compared to $24 million for the fourth quarter of '21, and calendar year 2022 depreciation and amortization was $96.6 million compared with $99.1 million for calendar year '21.

第四季的折舊和攤提為 2,330 萬美元，而 21 年第四季為 2,400 萬美元；2022 日曆年的折舊和攤提為 9,660 萬美元，而 21 日曆年的折舊和攤提為 9,910 萬美元。

I'll now hand the call over to Neil for a product update.

我現在將把電話交給 Neil 來介紹產品最新情況。

Great. Thanks, Kevin. Earlier this month, Gentex participated in the 2023 Consumer Electronics Show. We utilized CES to showcase our current and potential future product portfolio. Our booth was designed to help automakers envision a path toward the autonomous age with scalable products and features ready for implementation on today's vehicles.

太好了！謝謝，凱文。本月初，鏡泰參加了2023年消費電子展。我們利用這次展會展示了我們現有和未來潛在的產品組合。我們的展位旨在幫助汽車製造商展望邁向自動駕駛時代的道路，並提供可擴展的產品和功能，方便在當今車輛上應用。

This year at CES, our automotive and aerospace customers were able to experience Gentex technologies in new and exciting ways. We displayed advanced vehicle and aircraft fuselage simulators that allow those in attendance to experience firsthand the benefits of our technology right on the show floor. Our unique vehicle demonstrator showcase the scalable yet holistic approach to driver and in-cabin monitoring. The driver monitoring system track the driver's head pose, eye gaze and other relevant movements to determine distraction, drowsiness, sudden sickness and readiness for the return of manual control in semiautonomous vehicles.

今年在CES上，我們的汽車和航空航太客戶能夠以全新且令人興奮的方式體驗Gentex的技術。我們展示了先進的車輛和飛機機身模擬器，讓與會者在展廳內親身體驗我們技術的優勢。我們獨特的車輛示範器展示了可擴展且全面的駕駛員和座艙監控方法。駕駛員監控系統可追蹤駕駛員的頭部姿勢、眼神注視和其他相關動作，以確定駕駛員是否分心、困倦、突發性暈車，以及是否準備好在半自動駕駛汽車中恢復手動控制。

The system is easily expandable to include 2D and 3D cabin monitoring for detecting passengers, behaviors, objects and even presence of life. Our goal with this system is to provide solutions for today's vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles. And that means engineering a comprehensive and scalable monitoring platform based on our competency in digital vision and sensor fusion techniques. Our CES booth also highlighted the company's industry-leading Full Display Mirror, an intelligent rear vision system that uses a custom camera and mirror-integrated video display to optimize a vehicle's rear vision. The FDM also serves as a platform for additional innovation. Add-on features that we demonstrated included a mere integrated digital video recorder, scalable trailer cam system, touchscreen display, lane line projection overlays and mirror integrated camera for video conferencing or capturing photos within the vehicle cabin.

該系統可輕鬆擴展，包括 2D 和 3D 座艙監控，用於偵測乘客、行為、物體甚至生命存在。我們開發該系統的目標是為當今的車輛以及向自動駕駛汽車的過渡提供解決方案。這意味著我們需要基於我們在數位視覺和感測器融合技術方面的能力，設計一個全面且可擴展的監控平台。我們的 CES 展位還重點展示了公司業界領先的全顯示器後視鏡，這是一款智慧後視系統，使用客製化攝影機和後視鏡整合視訊顯示器來優化車輛的後視。 FDM 也可作為其他創新的平台。我們演示的附加功能包括整合數位視訊錄影機、可擴展的拖車攝影機系統、觸控螢幕顯示器、車道線投影疊加層以及用於在車艙內進行視訊會議或拍照的後視鏡整合攝影機。

Also displayed at CES were large area dimmable devices, including sunroofs that darken on-demand or with system intelligence. And sunvisors that fall down like a traditional visor but include a clear dimmable panel that can darken on demand based on Sun load. We also highlighted small scalable dimmable devices that have many different use cases, including the ability to darken and improve contrast and visibility for transparent displays, (inaudible) sensors and dynamic adjustment of camera exposure.

CES 上也展出了大面積可調光設備，包括可按需調暗或系統智慧調暗的天窗。此外，還有像傳統遮陽板一樣可放下的遮陽板，但其透明可調光面板可根據日照量按需調暗。我們還重點介紹了小型可擴展可調光設備，這些設備用途廣泛，包括能夠調暗並提高透明顯示器的對比度和可視性、（聽不清楚）感測器以及相機曝光的動態調整。

Many of the products that we initially developed for the automotive industry are built on technology platforms and can be customized for other industries. For CES 2023, Gentex developed an aircraft fuselage simulator, that allowed us to demonstrate how these same technologies can be deployed into aerospace. These technologies included dimmable glass and smart lighting, where we utilize the camera system to control the location and color temperature of cabin lighting. Few slides also showed various dimmable devices, including our dimmable windows and further advancements in this technology for dimmable partition devices to create privacy and cabin separators. We also included various biometric systems where we demonstrated the use of facial recognition to create a personal experience for the passenger and then utilize iris-based biometrics for a more accurate identification of a passenger for secured transactions.

我們最初為汽車行業開發的許多產品都基於技術平台，並可根據其他行業進行客製化。在2023年CES展上，鏡泰公司開發了一款飛機機身模擬器，使我們能夠展示如何將這些相同的技術應用於航空航太領域。這些技術包括可調光玻璃和智慧照明，我們利用攝影機系統控制客艙照明的位置和色溫。一些幻燈片還展示了各種可調光設備，包括我們的可調光窗戶，以及該技術的進一步發展，用於打造私密空間和客艙隔間的可調光隔間設備。我們也展示了各種生物辨識系統，示範如何使用臉部辨識技術為乘客打造個人化體驗，然後利用基於虹膜的生物辨識技術更準確地識別乘客身份，以實現安全交易。

These technologies can make the flight experience safer, more enjoyable and more personalized. Overall, CES 2023 was an excellent opportunity for us to demonstrate to our current and, hopefully, some future customers. what is driving our business today and what things we're working on to drive our growth in the coming years. In terms of launches, for the fourth quarter of 2022, there were 27 net new nameplate launches of our interior and exterior auto-dimming mirrors and electronic features. Approximately 50% of these new nameplate launches were advanced features with Full Display Mirror and HomeLink leading the way.

這些技術可以使飛行體驗更安全、更愉悅、更個人化。總而言之，2023 年 CES 為我們提供了一個絕佳的機會，讓我們向現有客戶以及未來的客戶展示當前業務的驅動力，以及我們正在努力推動未來幾年的成長。在產品發表方面，2022 年第四季度，我們共新增了 27 個車內和車外自動防眩後視鏡及電子功能。這些新增功能中約有 50% 是進階功能，其中全顯示後視鏡和 HomeLink 功能最為突出。

Now for an update on Full Display Mirror. During the fourth quarter of 2022, we began shipping FDM on 7 new vehicle nameplates. These new vehicle nameplates are the Chevy Bolt EUV, the Kia Telluride, Mercedes Sprinter, the Subaru Solterra, the Lexus RX, the Toyota Prius and Toyota Sequoia. Including these 7 new nameplates in 2022, Gentex began shipping FDM on 18 nameplates, and are currently shipping FDM on 86 nameplates. The technology continues to have growing interest and growth potential, and we're excited to see how well this product is being received by our OEM customers and the end consumers.

現在來更新全顯示後視鏡的最新情況。 2022年第四季度，我們開始為7款新車型提供FDM技術。這些新車型包括雪佛蘭Bolt EUV、起亞Telluride、梅賽德斯Sprinter、斯巴魯Solterra、雷克薩斯RX、豐田Prius和豐田Sequoia。算上這7款新車型，鏡泰已於2022年開始為18款車型提供FDM技術，目前已為86款車型提供FDM技術。這項技術持續受到人們的關注，並擁有巨大的成長潛力，我們很高興看到這款產品受到OEM客戶和最終消費者的熱烈歡迎。

2022 is an extremely challenging year, but the teams at Gentex did an outstanding job executing the high volume and extremely complex new launches that have been driving our new business growth, all while managing through the product redesigns that have been necessary due to component shortages that our industry has been facing. As we look forward, our launch rates continue to look strong. And as we continue to come out of this redesign cycle, I'm excited about our ability to refocus all of our development efforts to new products and technologies.

2022年是極具挑戰性的一年，但鏡泰團隊出色地完成了大量極其複雜的新產品發布，這些產品推動了我們新業務的增長，同時，他們也成功完成了由於行業面臨的零部件短缺而必須進行的產品重新設計。展望未來，我們的產品發布率依然保持強勁。隨著我們繼續走出這個重新設計週期，我很高興我們能夠將所有開發精力重新集中在新產品和新技術上。

I'll now hand the call back over to Steve for guidance and closing remarks.

現在我將把電話交還給史蒂夫，請他提供指導並作結束語。

Thanks, Neil. The company's current forecast for light vehicle production for calendar year 2023 and 2024 and are based on the S&P Global Mobility mid-January 2023 forecast for light vehicle production in North America, Europe, Japan, Korea and China and can be found in our press release.

謝謝，尼爾。該公司目前對2023年和2024年輕型汽車產量的預測，是基於標普全球移動出行公司2023年1月中旬對北美、歐洲、日本、韓國和中國輕型汽車產量的預測，詳情可在我們的新聞稿中查閱。

For calendar year 2023, light vehicle production in these markets is forecasted to increase 4% when compared to calendar year 2022 and is estimated to increase an additional 4% for calendar year 2024. Based on this light vehicle production forecast, the company is providing the following estimates for 2023. Revenue for the year is expected to be approximately $2.2 billion. Gross margins for the year are expected to be between 32% and 33%. Operating expenses are expected to be between $260 million and $270 million. Our estimated annual tax rate is forecasted to be between 15% and 17%. Capital expenditures are expected to be between $200 million and $225 million.

預計2023年這些市場的輕型汽車產量將較2022年成長4%，2024年預計將再成長4%。基於此輕型汽車產量預測，公司對2023年業績做出以下預測：預計全年營收約22億美元。預計全年毛利率在32%至33%之間。預計營運支出在2.6億美元至2.7億美元之間。預計年度稅率在15%至17%之間。預計資本支出在2億美元至2.25億美元之間。

The company intentionally delayed capital expenditures in 2020 and 2021, given the mandated shutdowns and the industry downturn. During 2022, the intent was to spin that previously delayed capital; however, availability of materials and capital equipment further delayed that spend. As a result, 2023 and 2024 CapEx will be higher than our typical rate but represents the level of spend needed to support the book business driving our growth and future R&D projects.

鑑於強制停工和行業低迷，公司有意推遲了2020年和2021年的資本支出。 2022年，公司計劃將先前推遲的資本支出進行回籠；然而，材料和資本設備的供應進一步推遲了這筆支出。因此，2023年和2024年的資本支出將高於我們的正常水平，但這足以支撐推動我們成長的圖書業務和未來的研發項目。

Lastly, depreciation and amortization is forecasted to be between $100 million and $110 million for 2023. Additionally, based on the company's current forecast for light vehicle production for calendar year 2024, the company expects calendar year 2024 revenue growth of approximately 10% above the 2023 revenue guidance range of approximately $2.2 billion.

最後，預計 2023 年的折舊和攤提將在 1 億至 1.1 億美元之間。此外，根據該公司目前對 2024 年曆年輕型汽車產量的預測，該公司預計 2024 年曆年的收入將比 2023 年約 22 億美元的收入指引高出約 10%。

Calendar year 2022 will be remembered as a very difficult operating environment that was negatively impacted by customer order volatility, supply and component constraints, cost inflation and raw components, labor and almost every other facet of the business. As we look into 2023, we are working hard to make sure that this coming year will be remembered as the year where we broke through the $2 billion revenue threshold and continued the process of improving the margin profile of the business. While we fully anticipate continued margin pressure for the first half of 2023, we also expect that the margin will improve throughout the year with the work done this year, setting the stage for further margin improvement throughout 2024. While there may be some lingering effects from supply and labor constraints that could limit global light vehicle production growth rates, we still believe our forecasted growth rate, in combination with our focus on cost control and other margin improvement efforts will move us to our targeted margin profile of 35% to 36% by the end of 2024.

2022年將因極其艱難的營運環境而被銘記，客戶訂單波動、供應和零件受限、成本上漲、原材料、勞動力以及幾乎所有其他業務方面都對其產生了負面影響。展望2023年，我們正在努力確保這一年被銘記為我們突破20億美元營收門檻並持續提升業務利潤率的一年。雖然我們完全預期2023年上半年利潤率將繼續承壓，但我們也預計，隨著今年的努力，利潤率將在全年有所提升，為2024年進一步提升利潤率奠定基礎。儘管供應和勞動力受限可能會持續影響全球輕型汽車產量的成長率，但我們仍然相信，憑藉我們預測的成長率，加上我們對成本控制和其他利潤率提升措施的重視，我們將在2024年底實現35%至36%的目標利潤率。

Our current model for the next 2 years includes an improving revenue environment driven by our product portfolio as well as improving margins from a better supply environment and internal cost control. These factors we believe will result in record revenue and improved margin performance that should result in increasing shareholder returns over the next 2 years.

我們目前對未來兩年的預期模式包括：產品組合帶來的營收環境改善，以及更優的供應環境和內部成本控制所帶來的利潤率提升。我們相信，這些因素將帶來創紀錄的營收和更高的利潤率，從而在未來兩年內提升股東回報。

That completes our prepared comments for today. Thank you for your time, and we can now proceed to questions.

我們今天的準備演講到此結束。感謝您抽出時間，現在我們可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) First question will come from Luke Junk of Baird.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Luke Junk。

I want to start with gross margin this morning. Good to see the initial cost recoveries flowing in here in the quarter. Now that you've been having a lot of those conversations and relative to what you're guiding for 2023, how good is your line of sight to that level of gross margin at 32% to 33% or said differently, how much do you already have in hand versus negotiations that are still undergoing at this point?

今天早上我想先從毛利率開始。很高興看到本季初步成本回收到位。既然您已經進行了很多這樣的討論，相對於您對2023年的預期，您對32%到33%的毛利率目標有多大？或者換句話說，您目前手頭上的毛利率與目前仍在進行的談判相比是多少？

Yes. For the first quarter, we feel pretty good about where we're at on the recovery side to get to that range for the year. Like we mentioned in the prepared comments, we think the first quarter is going to look a little bit more like Q4 from an overall margin percentage perspective.

是的。就第一季而言，我們對今年的復甦前景感到相當樂觀，有望達到這個水平。正如我們在準備好的評論中所提到的，我們認為從整體利潤率的角度來看，第一季的利潤率將更接近第四季。

But a lot of this recovery will start to take effect throughout the year and the growth rate will obviously help with the overhead side to help leverage the business to get to that range for the full year.

但這種復甦的大部分將在全年開始生效，成長率顯然將有助於管理費用方面，幫助業務達到全年的這一範圍。

Maybe just to follow up on that. Specifically, the negotiations themselves, Steve. Is that still ongoing? Or what's reflected in the guidance is more so leaning towards things that you've already agreed to with customers.

也許只是想跟進一下。具體來說，就是談判本身，史蒂夫。談判還在進行中嗎？或者說，財報中反映的內容更傾向於你已經與客戶達成一致的內容。

Yes. The guidance is really about 60% to 70% of what's needed to hit that range or already agreed to. We do have several customers that are still outstanding that we need to reach agreement with.

是的。這個指導價實際上大約是達到該範圍所需金額的60%到70%，或者已經達成了協議。我們確實還有幾個客戶尚未完成訂單，需要我們與他們達成協議。

Okay. That's helpful data point. And then my follow-up question on FDM and then kudos to your supply chain, your engineering team for what is -- I mean, I think it's understated to say a very impressive result in 2022, but is it right to think that may still have been short of where take rates from your customers were last year? And along those lines, does this rebase your expectations for FDM unit growth going forward? And maybe if you could comment what's in the guidance as well.

好的。這是一個很有幫助的數據點。接下來我的問題是關於FDM的，我要向你們的供應鏈和工程團隊致敬——我的意思是，我認為說2022年的業績非常令人印象深刻是輕描淡寫，但我們認為這可能仍然低於去年客戶的銷售率嗎？順著這個思路，這是否會重新調整你們對未來FDM單位成長的預期？或許你也可以評論一下指引中的內容。

Yes. So the take rates didn't worsen because of that. Really what happened though is they were increasing throughout the year. What I would say is FDM shipments in 2022 were probably 100,000 to 150,000 units short of what customers would have liked them to be, and that was driven almost exclusively by availability of components. And to your point, and thanks for thanks for recognizing and pointing that out, but Neil's team did an incredible job of even -- allow the work to even get to this level was herculean. So it was a pretty crazy year in terms of how much work had to go in just to try to get to this level of performance. In terms of going forward, we've been talking 200,000 to 300,000 units per year is kind of what our expected growth rate was over a longer period. I actually think '23 will be slightly above that, so probably north of the 300,000 unit range going into 2023.

是的。所以，成交率並沒有因此而下降。實際上，成交率全年都在成長。我想說的是，2022 年 FDM 的出貨量可能比客戶預期少了 10 萬到 15 萬台，這幾乎完全是由零件供應不足造成的。正如您所說，感謝您認可並指出這一點，但 Neil 的團隊做得非常出色——即使要達到這個水平也是一項非常艱鉅的任務。所以，為了達到這樣的業績水平，我們付出了巨大的努力，這真是瘋狂的一年。就未來而言，我們一直說每年 20 萬到 30 萬台的銷售量是我們長期預期的成長率。實際上，我認為 2023 年的銷量會略高於這個數字，所以到 2023 年，銷量可能會超過 30 萬台。

Our next question will come from David Kelley of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Kelley。

Maybe to follow up on the gross margin discussion, and appreciate also the color on cost recoveries. But the other impacts in the quarter, raw material, labor cost increases, can you give us a sense of the impact there? And then I also wanted to ask about the order volatility in the quarter. Is that still supply chain constraint related?

也許我想繼續討論毛利率，也想了解成本回收的細節。但是本季的其他影響，例如原材料和勞動成本的上漲，您可以跟我們講一下這些影響嗎？然後我還想問一下本季的訂單波動。這仍然與供應鏈約束有關嗎？

Yes. So the order volatility is really supply issues across the entire industry that's impacting OEMs and then, therefore, we're being impacted because of how much change is happening at the OEM level. On the margin, on a year-over-year basis, if you look at Q4 of '22 versus '21. One of the things we like to point out is there's actually about 500 basis points of margin headwind. And that from cost side, we -- obviously, with cost recoveries, we're able to recover about 200 basis points. So the net is 300 on a year-over-year basis is what you see the margin down. But the total headwind was actually 500 -- a little over 500 basis points. Of that, about 350 basis points were bill materials related, so cost increases. There was about 100 basis points of labor and then another 50 to 60 basis points of various things, mix and overhead being the primary drivers of that headwind.

是的。訂單波動實際上是整個行業的供應問題，它正在影響原始設備製造商 (OEM)，因此，我們也受到了影響，因為 OEM 層面發生了巨大的變化。就利潤率而言，如果對比 2022 年第四季和 2021 年，我們會發現年比來看，利潤率實際上面臨約 500 個基點的阻力。從成本方面來看，顯然，透過成本回收，我們能夠收回約 200 個基點。因此，年淨利潤下降 300 個基點，這就是利潤率下降的原因。但整體阻力實際上是 500 個基點——略高於 500 個基點。其中，約 350 個基點與物料成本有關，因此成本增加。人工成本約 100 個基點，其他各種成本也分別約為 50 到 60 個基點，產品組合和間接成本是造成阻力的主要因素。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And outside of the pricing and pass-through dynamic, how should we think about kind of raw material labor expectations baked into that second half margin ramp that you're expecting in the guide?

好的。明白了。這很有幫助。除了定價和轉嫁動態之外，我們應該如何看待您在指南中預期的下半年利潤率上升中融入的原材料勞動力預期？

Yes. I mean if you look at on the bill materials side for 2023, we're expecting a pretty stable environment, so basically flat on the material side. There will be some ups and downs inside of that. But the bottom line is we think we'll get through 2023 with pretty much net neutral position in terms of billing materials. Obviously, labor is going to continue to move based on market conditions. What we see, though, is that we think we've addressed most of those over the last few years in terms of labor costs.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看一下2023年的物料帳單，我們預期環境會相當穩定，物料方面基本上持平。這其中會有一些波動。但最重要的是，我們認為到2023年，物料帳單方面我們將保持基本中立的局面。顯然，勞動力價格將繼續根據市場情況而波動。不過，我們看到的是，我們認為在過去幾年裡，我們已經在勞動成本方面解決了大部分問題。

But you would expect to see normal kind of inflationary pressure going forward on the cost of labor. So we think the increase in those issues should be less than what we've experienced in the past, and the growth rate will obviously produce a higher rate of revenue, which should help us with our overhead side to get to a slightly improved overall cost position.

但你預期未來勞動成本將面臨正常的通膨壓力。因此，我們認為這些問題的增幅應該會低於過去，而且成長率顯然會帶來更高的收入，這應該有助於我們降低管理費用，從而略微改善整體成本狀況。

Okay. Perfect. And then last one for me. The OpEx guide, and you mentioned the kind of key focus, ongoing focus on growth products, how should we think about R&D levels going forward? Any meaningful step change in the spend there?

好的，非常好。最後一個問題。關於營運支出指南，您提到了重點關注，持續關注成長產品，那麼我們應該如何考慮未來的研發水準？這方面的支出會有什麼有意義的改變嗎？

No, it's roughly in line with our revenue growth rates. Really, the R&D forecast is tracked pretty well. I mean there's a little bit of lumpiness as it relates to when the revenue actually comes to fruition. But the increases in R&D attractive over the last 5 years have tracked roughly in line with our sales growth level.

不，它大致上與我們的收入成長率一致。實際上，研發支出預測的追蹤相當準確。我的意思是，在收入實際實現的時間方面，會有一些波動。但過去5年，研發支出的成長與我們的銷售成長水準大致一致。

Our next question will come from James Picariello of BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的詹姆斯‧皮卡里洛 (James Picariello)。

On the customer cost recoveries, you achieved $15 million in the fourth quarter. Just curious on a finer point, I know this has been indirectly asked, but how should we be thinking about what that cost recovery number looks like for this year? Is the 100 basis points in net pricing still the right target for this year? Because, right, that would imply maybe 3 points of net positive price relative to your typical 2% APR. So that's something on the order of $55 million to $60 million in recoveries implied for this year. Is that the right range to be thinking about?

在客戶成本回收方面，你們在第四季實現了1500萬美元。我想問一個更具體的問題，我知道這個問題已經被間接地問過了，但我們該如何考慮今年的成本回收數字呢？淨定價100個基點仍是今年的正確目標嗎？因為，這意味著相對於你們典型的2%年利率，淨正價格可能有3個基點。所以，這意味著今年隱含的回收金額大約在5500萬到6000萬美元之間。這個範圍合適嗎？

Yes. So I'd say you're exactly right about the goal for this year and where we think we can end is at about a net positive of 100 basis points.

是的。所以我認為你對今年的目標設定完全正確，我們認為最終可以實現淨正增長100個基點左右。

Okay. And then the trajectory out to 2024 still encouraging from both the top line and gross margin standpoint, maybe now more still weighted in 2024. Just focusing on the cost side of the equation, can you quantify what the total addressable cost bucket is in terms of as an exit rate for 2022, what that cost bucket is in terms of how that winds down through 2024, what's addressable, what allows you to get to that 35% to 36% exit rate in '24 from a cost perspective?

好的。那麼，從營收和毛利率的角度來看，到2024年的發展軌跡仍然令人鼓舞，現在可能仍然更重視2024年。僅關注成本方面，您能否量化2022年的總可解決成本區間，以退出率的形式，以及該成本區間在2024年如何逐漸減少，哪些是可解決的，以及從成本角度來看，是什麼讓您在2024年達到35%到36%的退出率？

Well, the biggest piece is obviously raw materials that have gone up by 350 basis points over the last 18 months. So that's addressable as we get into the late half of next year into '24, we would expect to start to see that improve. The thing we didn't talk about here was freight. That's also been about 150 basis point headwind over the last 18 months that is starting to show signs of improvement. And then the last piece really is between mix and leveraging our overhead, right? So I mean, you have a lot of things put in place for growth that has been stalled a little bit because of mostly supply chain constraints.

嗯，最大的影響顯然是原物料價格在過去18個月上漲了350個基點。所以，隨著明年下半年到2024年，我們預期原物料價格會回升。我們這裡沒有談到運費。過去18個月裡，運費也上漲了約150個基點，但現在開始出現改善的跡象。最後一個因素實際上是產品組合和間接成本的利用率，對吧？我的意思是，我們已經為成長做好了很多準備，但由於供應鏈的限制，這些因素有所停滯。

But as you see, our forecast this next year, move into roughly 15% growth and another 10% next year. So the investments in CapEx will start to be leveraged with that sales growth.

但如你所見，我們預測明年的成長率將達到約15%，明年再成長10%。因此，資本支出的投資將開始與銷售額的成長產生槓桿作用。

Yes. And I think James the other one, too, that we're pretty optimistic about is the labor cost increases have been very significant, but really even driving that more has been overtime cost because of the lack of staffing and headcount that we needed. We've made a lot of progress over the last month or so on the direct labor side. And we feel like that will help limit the amount of overtime costs. And so there could be another 50 to 100 basis points of tailwind over the next 18 months as we get the staffing in place and trained and become more efficient from an operations standpoint.

是的。詹姆斯，我想，我們對此也非常樂觀，那就是勞動成本的大幅上漲，但真正推動這一增長的是加班費，因為我們缺乏所需的人員和員工。過去一個月左右，我們在直接勞動力方面取得了巨大進展。我們認為這將有助於限制加班費的金額。因此，隨著我們人員到位、培訓到位，並從營運角度提高效率，未來18個月內，我們的利潤可能會再增加50到100個基點。

Our next question will come from Josh Nichols of B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley 的 Josh Nichols。

Just thinking a little bit more about cash flow given some of the investments that are going on for CapEx and whatnot for 2023. I did not, so inventory levels were actually down in 4Q. Are you at a level where you think you probably don't need to invest more in inventory? And is that going to be a source of cash flow for '23? Or is it going to hold around current levels? I'm just curious your thought process given the demand dynamic that you're seeing right now.

考慮到2023年正在進行的一些資本支出和其他投資，我想再多考慮一下現金流。我沒有考慮，所以第四季度的庫存水準實際上下降了。您認為現在的庫存水準是否不需要再增加投資了？庫存會成為2023年的現金流來源嗎？還是會維持在目前的水準？考慮到您目前看到的需求動態，我很好奇您的思路。

I think it'll -- we certainly did see a retrench. Our teams did a really good job of kind of selectively looking at where inventories were not needed as sales continue to grow. You should see that be at least flat. It may be a source of cash, but probably not an excessive source of cash. I mean you're talking $10 million, $15 million, $20 million. We feel comfortable with kind of the lead time environment, our supply chain. We're not going to get too aggressive on that until we see consistent stability in the market probably for another 18 months.

我認為會——我們確實看到了庫存縮減。我們的團隊做得非常好，在銷售額持續成長的情況下，選擇性地篩選了不需要庫存的地方。你應該看到庫存至少持平。庫存或許是現金來源，但可能不會太多。我的意思是，1000萬美元、1500萬美元、2000萬美元。我們對交付週期環境和我們的供應鏈感到滿意。在市場持續穩定（可能持續18個月）之前，我們不會在這方面採取過於激進的行動。

Perfect. And then last question for me. I think it's appropriate coming out of CES this month. But just thinking a little bit longer term, I mean, you look back 5, 7 years ago, the company wasn't really generating any revenue from FDM, everyone can see just what a growth driver that's been and the type of performance that you put up this year despite being a capacity-constrained environment. I'm just curious, your thoughts about some of the technology that you had on display at CES this year. And what 1 or 2 items do you think are probably the closest to commercialization and the timeline that it may be until those could start generating more material revenue?

太好了。最後一個問題。我覺得這個月CES展結束後再問這個問題很適合。但從長遠來看，例如5、7年前，公司實際上並沒有從FDM獲得任何收入，每個人都能看到FDM是如何成為成長動力的，以及你們今年在產能受限的情況下取得的業績。我很好奇，您對今年CES上展示的一些技術有何看法？您認為哪一兩項技術最接近商業化？這些技術需要多長時間才能開始產生更多實質收入？

Neil and I have probably a different answer, but I want to hear him go first. So...

我和尼爾的答案可能不一樣，但我想先聽聽他的意見。所以…

Well, I'd like to say all the products are about ready to get to the market, but a little longer than others. I think a lot of the excitement is on dimmable devices is clearly the market that I would pick as I got the most excitement from CES, and that's large area devices as well as visors. I think both of those have great opportunity. And those are probably -- you're still going to be 3 years, 3-plus years out before we see those come to market. The second one, you asked for two.

嗯，我想說的是，所有產品都已經準備好上市了，只是上市時間會比其他產品長。我認為，許多令人興奮的產品都集中在可調光設備上，這顯然是我選擇的市場，因為我在CES上獲得了最多的關注，而且這還包括大面積設備和遮陽板。我認為這兩個領域都有很大的機會。而且，這些產品可能還需要3年甚至3年以上的時間才能上市。第二個，你問的是2年。

The second would be in the driver and in-cabin monitoring. Positioning the mirror area as a platform for positioning cameras, mirrors, processing. I think we'll see that start gaining some more traction. There was a lot of interest over the last couple of years at CES, and I think there will be more traction in there. And I think that's within the 2- to 4-year window from being market ready.

第二個是駕駛和車內監控。將後視鏡區域定位為一個用於放置攝影機、後視鏡和進行資料處理的平台。我認為我們會看到這項技術開始獲得更多關注。過去幾年在CES上，人們對它很感興趣，我認為未來會有更多的關注。而且我認為這項技術距離上市還有2到4年的時間。

Our next question will come from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的瑞安·布林克曼。

With regard to the $15 million of customer recoveries in 4Q, I'm curious if these are the first material sort of noncontractual customer recoveries that you've realized since costs seem to inflect around 3Q '21? And if maybe you have a sort of rolling tally internally of the total amount of excess costs that you've incurred, sense costs began to inflect and that the recovery is partly offset, right? And then like what percentage of those cumulative excess costs that you aim to or expect to recover over time or said differently, how many more of these recoveries for past costs do you think that investors can expect going forward?

關於第四季1,500萬美元的客戶追回款，我很好奇，這是否是您自2021年第三季左右成本似乎出現波動以來，首次實現的重大非合約客戶追回款？如果您內部對已發生的超額成本總額進行滾動統計，是否能感覺到成本開始波動，追回款被部分抵銷了？然後，您計劃或預計隨著時間的推移，能夠追回多少累積超額成本，或者換句話說，您認為投資者未來可以期待多少過去成本的追回？

Yes, I would say if you look at -- yes, we absolutely have the tally of the pain that has been endured over the last 18 months. This is one of those areas that you try to forget, but unfortunately, you can't. It's very real. But if you look at the numbers we were talking about earlier, about 350 basis points of margin degradation. I mean really, if you do that on a -- on the total revenue, you've got your number there. So you're north of anywhere around $70 million to $80 million in cost increases that we've had to endure over the last 18 months. Like we mentioned, we've got some already that we got in the Q4 area. And then we expect to have net positive increase in pricing this year of 100 basis points.

是的，我想說，如果你看一下——是的，我們確實統計了過去18個月所承受的痛苦。這是那些你試圖忘記但不幸的是你無法忘記的領域之一。它非常真實。但如果你看看我們之前談到的數字，利潤率下降了大約350個基點。我的意思是，如果你把這個數字放在總收入上，你就得到了你想要的數字。所以，在過去18個月裡，我們不得不忍受的成本成長大約在7,000萬到8,000萬美元之間。正如我們所提到的，我們在第四季度已經經歷了一些成本成長。然後，我們預計今年的價格淨成長將達到100個基點。

So if you look at what we were expecting, normally, you'd see in a down market or a negative APR market to now be positive pricing. We think we'll probably pick up a good $20 million to $30 million on an annual basis this year of those costs. And then we're obviously going to be looking at how do we either get further recoveries into 2024? Or do we get book of business and awards that will allow -- at least allow us to offset those and hopefully get back into a deflationary pricing market from a supply base.

所以，如果你看看我們的預期，通常情況下，在市場低迷或年利率為負的市場中，你會看到現在的定價是正的。我們認為，今年我們每年可能會從這些成本中獲得2000萬到3000萬美元的回報。然後，我們顯然會考慮如何在2024年進一步收回成本？或者，我們能否獲得業務訂單和獎勵，至少讓我們能夠抵消這些損失，並希望從供應端回到通貨緊縮的定價市場。

And so it is a longer strategy, it's definitely one that we feel comfortable with the numbers. We understand what we need to do to get that margin profile back to 35%, 36%, and we're off to a good start.

所以這是一個長期策略，我們對這些數字絕對感到滿意。我們知道自己需要做什麼才能將利潤率恢復到35%或36%，而且我們已經有了一個好的開始。

Our next question will come from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

First one is on the mix of products this year. And have OEM take rate plans for higher-end products like FDM changed at all for 2023 in light of the current macroeconomic situation?

第一個問題是今年的產品組合。鑑於當前的宏觀經濟形勢，2023年像FDM這樣的高端產品的OEM費率計劃是否有任何變化？

No. As of right now, we haven't seen a single change. In fact, still a lot of pressure from OEMs to try to get the type of components and at the take rates they want. The market is still constrained. Obviously, it's not as bad or as severe as it was mid last year. But there's definitely a strong demand right now for higher-end features and content.

沒有。截至目前，我們還沒有看到任何變化。事實上，原始設備製造商仍然面臨巨大壓力，試圖獲得他們想要的零件類型和利潤率。市場仍然受到限制。顯然，情況不像去年年那麼糟糕或嚴重。但目前對高端功能和內容的需求確實強勁。

That's helpful. And my second question was on the overall revenue guidance 2023. I believe as of last quarter, the company was anticipating 15% to 20% revenue growth for 2023, and now you're guiding for about 15%. So I'm hoping to better understand what's changed in the assumptions for revenue growth for this year?

這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於2023年的整體收入預期。我記得截至上個季度，公司預計2023年的營收成長將達到15%到20%，而現在你們的預期是15%左右。所以，我希望能更了解今年的營收成長假設有哪些變化？

Yes. The primary one was two things. Number one is the light vehicle production for '23 has come down a little bit. And we would tell you that we're a little bit pessimistic on the second half of the year of those numbers actually happening. And so we just manually adjust that S&P forecast based off what we understand and what we're seeing from a customer basis and also from a consumer standpoint. So -- just given the borrowing rates and what interest rates are looking like, we think there will be a little bit of a slowdown in terms of light vehicle production in the second half.

是的。主要有兩點。第一，2023年的輕型車產量略有下降。而且，我們對於下半年這些數字的實際表現略感悲觀。因此，我們根據自己的理解以及從客戶和消費者角度的觀察，手動調整了標普的預測。因此，考慮到目前的借貸利率和利率狀況，我們認為下半年輕型汽車產量將略有放緩。

And our next question will come from David Whiston of Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星的戴維‧惠斯頓。

Just 2 questions for me. In the press release, you talked about an unfavorable product mix in the quarter. And I'm just curious, does that imply there were advanced feature products that lagged? And was that just all FDM and HomeLink or something else?

我只想問兩個問題。在新聞稿中，您提到了本季的產品組合不佳。我很好奇，這是否意味著一些高級功能產品表現落後？是所有FDM和HomeLink產品都表現落後，還是其他原因？

Yes. I mean it's mostly just a combination of the higher cost on some of the more advanced features. And then, yes, shortage shipping really what we were expecting kind of going into the quarter. So it really resulted in last year at this time, we had really, really strong outside mirror growth as well. This year was a little bit more flat in the fourth quarter. And you see a lot of that. I mean we didn't -- this year's -- the last couple of years have been a little odd just because of everything else that's been going on.

是的。我的意思是，這主要是因為一些更高級的功能成本更高。然後，是的，短缺運輸確實是我們在本季預期會出現的情況。所以，這實際上導致了去年這個時候，我們的外部鏡像業務也實現了非常非常強勁的成長。今年第四季則略顯平淡。這種情況你常看到。我的意思是，我們並沒有——因為其他事情——過去幾年的情況有點奇怪。

Normally in Q4, you do see our Tier 1 customers usually focus on inventory adjustments. So usually in December, you'll see them take a little less HomeLink outside mirrors, which are primary products that we ship through Tier 1.

通常在第四季度，我們的一級客戶通常會專注於庫存調整。所以通常在12月，他們購買的HomeLink外後視鏡會減少一些，而這些是我們透過一級客戶出貨的主要產品。

Okay. And I think what Kevin was answering a question earlier on margin headwinds and particularly called out raw materials and freight. It sounds like then those are the two single biggest gross margin headwinds by far? Or in the past, it seems like suppliers it's always just been we need more volume and nothing else is as important.

好的。我認為凱文之前回答過一個關於利潤率逆風的問題，特別提到了原料和運費。聽起來這似乎是迄今為止最大的兩個毛利率逆風？或者在過去，供應商似乎總是認為我們需要更多的產量，其他一切都不那麼重要。

No. I mean raw materials, the biggest headwind we've experienced is what I was referring to over the last 18 months. It's certainly the biggest part of our bill material. And with the electronics piece of it being a big portion of our business, that's certainly where the most opportunity for improvement over the next 2 years exists. We've done -- if you remember back during COVID, we kind of rightsized our operations in our overhead structure so that it was built for this size. And so as we grow, we should be able to leverage that as well, but it's not as big of a headwind as kind of the material side.

不。我的意思是，原料，我們遇到的最大阻力就是我提到的過去18個月。這無疑是我們帳單資料中最大的一塊。而電子產品是我們業務的重要組成部分，這無疑是未來兩年最有改進機會的地方。我們已經做了——如果你還記得在新冠疫情期間，我們調整了間接費用結構，使其適應了這種規模。因此，隨著我們的發展，我們應該也能利用這一點，但它的阻力不像材料方面那麼大。

So if you had your choice of dramatic improvement in raw material costs now or, say, a much more normalized SAAR at a higher level, you'd take the raw materials?

因此，如果您可以選擇現在大幅改善原材料成本，或者說，在更高水平上實現更規範的 SAAR，您會選擇原材料嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Ron Jewsikow of Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥公司的 Ron Jewsikow。

Just first, you mentioned the guide, assumes stable cost environment. Does that include freight and overtime pay? Or are those potential sources of upside? And how is that trending, I guess, so far in January?

首先，您提到指南假設成本環境穩定。這是否包括運費和加班費？還是這些是潛在的上漲因素？我想，到目前為止，1月的趨勢如何？

No. We think that will be stable as well, if not a slight -- on the labor and overtime side and even on the freight, we actually think that will be a slight tailwind in '23 versus '22.

不，我們認為這也會保持穩定，即使不是輕微的——在勞動力和加班方面，甚至在貨運方面，我們實際上認為 23 年相對於 22 年將會略有順風。

Okay. And then -- this is maybe more of a question for Neil. How many FDM nameplates do you think you can get to exiting 2023?

好的。然後——這也許更該問 Neil。您認為到 2023 年，你們能生產多少個 FDM 銘牌？

So we think we can pick up another probably between 15 to 20 somewhere in there based on current, so much of its variable depending on the last half of the year in the fourth quarter. Sometimes they bump into the first quarter of the following year. So it just kind of depends on alignment. But I would say 15 is probably a pretty good number right now.

因此，我們認為根據目前的情況，我們大概可以再增加15到20家，這很大程度上取決於第四季的下半年。有時，它們會與第二年第一季的業績發生衝突。所以多少取決於調整。但我認為，目前15家可能是個相當不錯的數字。

Okay. And then last question for me is you referenced earlier on the call, but late quarter orders slipping into the first quarter, it does look like foreign exterior and both domestic interior and exterior where maybe a bit weaker than we would have expected. And if so, can you quantify like the magnitude of what may have been a destock or shipping into the first quarter?

好的。最後一個問題是，您之前在電話會議上提到，季度末訂單下滑到第一季度，看起來海外外裝訂單以及國內內裝和外裝訂單可能都比我們預期的要弱一些。如果是這樣，您能否量化一下第一季去庫存或出貨量可能造成的規模？

Overall, our total forecast was about $20 million to $25 million below our beginning of the quarter forecast. Probably somewhere 30%, 40% of it may have been destocking. It's hard to tell exactly what's going on. I mean especially with our foreign side, there's a little bit of lead time on shipments. So it's just a little bit of shortage on the outside mirror side.

總體而言，我們的總預測比本季初的預測低了約2000萬至2500萬美元。其中大概有30%到40%是因為去庫存造成的。很難確切地說出具體情況。我的意思是，尤其是在海外市場，發貨需要一些時間。所以，外後視鏡方面確實存在一些缺貨。

And I do not see any further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Josh O'Berski for closing remarks.

我沒有看到其他問題。現在請喬許‧奧伯斯基先生致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for your time and questions today. This concludes our conference call.

感謝大家今天的提問和時間。我們的電話會議到此結束。

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a pleasant day, and enjoy your weekend.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。祝大家有個愉快的一天，享受美好的週末。