通用汽車 (GM) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收 480 億美元,YoY 增加 9 億美元;EBIT 調整後 39 億美元,YoY 增加 9 億美元;EPS 調整後 YoY 增長超過 35%,達 7.27 美元,創歷史新高
    • 上修 2026 全年指引:EBIT 調整後提升至 140-160 億美元(原 135-155 億),EPS 調整後提升至 12-14 美元(原 11.5-13.5 美元),自由現金流提升至 95-115 億美元(原 90-110 億)
    • 北美 8.6% EBIT 調整後利潤率,YoY 提升 2.5 個百分點,回到 8-10% 目標區間;美國全尺寸皮卡市佔率超過 42%,領先同業 10 個百分點
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 全新與改款車型(如 Silverado、Sierra、Trax、Equinox、Traverse)帶動產品組合升級與利潤提升
      • 高毛利軟體與服務(如 OnStar、Super Cruise)快速成長,2026 年預計認列超過 30 億美元收入,訂閱數年增百萬
      • GM Defense、GM Insurance 等新事業群規模擴大,GM Defense 2026 年營收預計近 7 億美元,未來數年 CAGR 超過 30%
      • 持續降低 EV 虧損、提升營運效率、壓低保固成本,推動多引擎式利潤擴張
    • 風險:
      • 商品、物流與 DRAM 成本全年預計帶來 15-20 億美元逆風,且下半年壓力加大
      • 中東地緣政治、國際業務(特別是中東、南美)仍有不確定性
      • EV 市場規模縮小、消費者激勵減少,導致部分車型停產與市佔下滑
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 北美 EBIT 調整後:34 億美元,YoY 增加 10 億美元,利潤率 8.6%,YoY 提升 2.5 個百分點
    • GM International EBIT 調整後:1 億美元,南美表現強勁,中東受運輸干擾
    • 中國合資公司權益收入:1 億美元,持續獲利
    • GM Financial EBT 調整後:6 億美元,維持全年 25-30 億美元指引
    • OnStar 數位業務:Q2 認列收入 8 億美元,YoY 增長 20%;遞延收入 63 億美元,YoY 增長近 50%
    • 美國全尺寸皮卡市佔率:超過 42%,YoY 持續提升
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年營收未明確揭露,但 GM Defense 目標近 7 億美元,OnStar 認列收入超過 30 億美元
    • 2026 全年 EBIT 調整後預估 140-160 億美元,EPS 調整後 12-14 美元
    • 2026 全年 CapEx 未明確揭露,全年美國生產在地化投資預計 10-15 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Super Cruise 擴展與定價策略?未來是否會調整收費結構?
      A: 持續根據客戶反饋調整 Super Cruise 擴展與定價,目前無具體新方案可公布,但隨著新車型導入與成本下降,預期滲透率與訂閱數將持續提升,未來數年數位收入成長動能強勁。
    • Q: 保固成本改善幅度與未來展望?Q3 是否有機會進一步下修提列?
      A: 上半年保固成本 YoY 改善 5 億美元,全年預計帶來 10-15 億美元正面影響,Q3 會再評估是否調整提列,長期看好 AI 與模擬工具提升品質、降低保固支出。
    • Q: 新一代 Silverado/Sierra 皮卡上市對價格與市佔的影響?
      A: 現有車型價格維持強勢,未見終端大幅折讓,新車型將帶來更多高階配備與功能,有望進一步提升平均售價與利潤率,預期需求強勁,市佔與價格皆有上行空間。
    • Q: GM Defense、能源儲存(鈉離子電池)等新事業發展策略與時程?
      A: 鈉離子電池具備安全、低成本、簡化系統設計等優勢,適合儲能市場,與 Peak Energy 合作開發,預計 2027-2028 年於自家電池中心進行產線驗證,2030 年前進入量產。GM Defense 預計未來數年營收 CAGR 超過 30%。
    • Q: 美國在地化生產進度與對 50% US content 規範的因應?
      A: 疫情後已積極強化供應鏈與在地化生產,現有規劃有助於符合美國相關規範,並持續與政府溝通,確保北美汽車產業競爭力。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the General Motors Company second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, Tuesday, July 21, 2026.

    早安,歡迎參加通用汽車公司 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次電話會議將於 2026 年 7 月 21 日(星期二)錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashish Kohli, GM's Vice President of Investor Relations.

    現在我想把會議交給通用汽車投資人關係副總裁 Ashish Kohli。

  • Ashish Kohli - Vice President- Investor Relations

    Ashish Kohli - Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us as we review GM's financial results for the second quarter of 2026. Our conference call materials were issued this morning and are available on GM's Investor Relations website. We are also broadcasting this call via webcast.

    謝謝你,Julie,各位早安。感謝各位加入我們,一同回顧通用汽車 2026 年第二季的財務結果。我們的電話會議資料已於今早發布,並可在通用汽車投資人關係網站取得。我們也透過網路直播本次會議。

  • Joining us today are Mary Barra, GM's Chair and CEO; along with Paul Jacobson, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO; Susan Sheffield, President and CEO of GM Financial will also be joining us for the Q&A portion.

    今天與會者包括通用汽車董事長暨執行長 Mary Barra;以及通用汽車執行副總裁暨財務長 Paul Jacobson;通用汽車金融(GM Financial)總裁暨執行長 Susan Sheffield 也將參與問答環節。

  • On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements about our expectations. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include the factors identified in our filings with the SEC. Please review the safe harbor statement on the first page of our presentation as the content of this call will be governed by this language.

    在今天的電話會議中,管理團隊將就我們的預期發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與所述內容出現重大差異。這些風險與不確定性包括我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交文件中所識別的因素。請查閱簡報第一頁的安全港聲明,因為本次電話會議內容將受該等措辭所規範。

  • And with that, I'm delighted to turn the call over to Mary.

    接下來,我很高興把電話會議交給 Mary。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Ashish, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported another solid quarter, driven by the tremendous appeal of our product portfolio, the agility of our team and disciplined execution across the business.

    謝謝你,Ashish,各位早安。今天我們公布了另一個穩健的季度表現,主要受惠於我們產品組合的強大吸引力、團隊的敏捷性,以及全公司範圍內有紀律的執行。

  • Our employees, our dealers and our suppliers are all making important contributions that continue to drive our success. Their commitment enables us to win in a dynamic market, and their efforts are leading us to raise our 2026 guidance for the second time this year. The business continues to perform very well. Customer demand in North America remains steady, including for our pickups and SUVs and pricing is consistent.

    我們的員工、經銷商與供應商都做出了重要貢獻,持續推動我們的成功。他們的投入讓我們能在動態市場中勝出,而他們的努力也促使我們今年第二次上調 2026 年財測指引。業務持續表現非常出色。北美客戶需求仍然穩定,包括對皮卡與 SUV 的需求,且定價保持一致。

  • For example, despite lower than target inventories for most of the year, our share of the US full-size pickup market stands at more than 42% through the first half of the year, which is more than 10 percentage points above our closest competitor and we grew share year-over-year in both the second quarter and the first half.

    例如,儘管今年大部分時間多數車型的庫存低於目標水準,我們在美國全尺寸皮卡市場的市占率於上半年仍超過 42%,比最接近的競爭對手高出逾 10 個百分點,且我們在第二季與上半年皆實現年增市占。

  • We also achieved our best quarter and first half ever for the new Super Cruise equipped vehicles. Strong commercial demand helped us deliver record full-size pickup deliveries in our fleet business and our US incentive spend has remained well below the industry average for more than three years.

    我們也在配備全新 Super Cruise 的車款上,創下史上最佳單季與上半年表現。強勁的商用需求協助我們在車隊業務中交付創紀錄的全尺寸皮卡數量,而我們在美國的促銷補貼支出已連續三年以上顯著低於產業平均。

  • GM International, inclusive of our China joint ventures was also profitable. Our 8.6% EBIT adjusted margin in North America was up 2.5 points from a year ago, and we continue to strengthen our product portfolio, grow software and services revenue, lower our warranty costs, reduce EV losses, increase operating efficiency and develop new revenue opportunities that drive improved results this year and going forward.

    通用汽車國際業務(包含我們在中國的合資企業)同樣實現獲利。北美調整後 EBIT 利潤率為 8.6%,較去年同期提升 2.5 個百分點;我們持續強化產品組合、擴大軟體與服務營收、降低保固成本、減少電動車虧損、提升營運效率,並開發新的營收機會,以推動今年及未來的改善成果。

  • This strategy has driven 70 basis points of total company margin expansion over the last three years, while our broader peer set has seen margin reduction by 400 basis points. All of this includes the impact of tariffs. We haven't made excuses, we've just continued to perform. At the same time, our operating discipline has been a key driver of the structural improvement in our adjusted automotive free cash flow generation, which has improved from $3 billion to $5 billion annually on average over the last decade to consistently above $10 billion since 2022. We expect these trends will continue to strengthen our performance into 2027 and beyond because we have multiple engines of margin expansion and growth, while maintaining our capital discipline.

    這項策略在過去三年帶動全公司總利潤率擴張 70 個基點,而我們更廣泛的同業群則出現 400 個基點的利潤率下滑。上述成果亦已包含關稅影響。我們沒有找藉口,而是持續交出表現。同時,我們的營運紀律一直是調整後汽車業務自由現金流結構性改善的關鍵推動力;過去十年平均每年由 30 億美元提升至 50 億美元,而自 2022 年起則穩定維持在 100 億美元以上。我們預期這些趨勢將持續強化我們在 2027 年及之後的表現,因為我們擁有多個利潤率擴張與成長引擎,同時維持資本紀律。

  • We built a strong EBIT foundation with new and redesigned vehicles like the Chevrolet Trax, Equinox and Traverse, the revitalization of Buick. The success of sub-brands like the Denali and AT4 and icons like the Chevrolet Corvette and the Cadillac Escalade. For example, since 2020, we have increased the EBIT profitability per unit of our crossover portfolio by 4 times, while our full-size pickup and full-size SUV segments are each up over 25%.

    我們透過 Chevrolet Trax、Equinox 與 Traverse 等全新與改款車型、以及 Buick 的振興,建立了穩固的 EBIT 基礎。Denali 與 AT4 等子品牌的成功,以及 Chevrolet Corvette 與 Cadillac Escalade 等經典車款亦功不可沒。例如,自 2020 年以來,我們的跨界車產品組合單位 EBIT 獲利能力提升至原來的 4 倍,而全尺寸皮卡與全尺寸 SUV 兩大細分市場的表現也各自提升超過 25%。

  • Our next major launch, the next-generation Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra light-duty pickups will further separate us from key competitors when they begin arriving in showrooms in December. The truck will deliver improved ride quality, power, durability and towing capability. We have also significantly elevated the exterior and interior design to increase their presence, refinement and appeal.

    我們下一個重大上市計畫是新一代 Chevrolet Silverado 與 GMC Sierra 輕型皮卡,預計 12 月開始進駐展間,將進一步拉開我們與主要競爭對手的差距。該卡車將帶來更佳的乘坐品質、動力、耐久性與拖曳能力。我們也大幅提升外觀與內裝設計,以增強其氣勢、精緻度與吸引力。

  • We plan to maintain record production volumes year-over-year, while launching the trucks at three assembly plants, along with our next-generation V8 engines, which are launching at three propulsion plants. We are also increasing capacity for full-size SUVs. Starting next spring and continuing into 2028, we will begin launching the next generation of Cadillac ICE vehicles, including the all-new CT5, XT5 and XT6, which will complement the Escalade and the brand's luxury segment leading EV portfolio, the Escalade IQ, VISTIQ, LYRIQ and OPTIQ. And we are onshoring significant manufacturing starting next year, which will bring our US production capacity to more than 2 million units and further reduce our tariff exposure.

    我們計畫在推出卡車的同時,維持年對年創紀錄的產量,並在三座組裝廠同步導入新車型;同時,我們的新一代 V8 引擎也將在三座動力系統工廠投產。我們也正在提升全尺寸 SUV 的產能。自明年春季起並延續至 2028 年,我們將開始推出下一代 Cadillac 燃油(ICE)車款,包括全新 CT5、XT5 與 XT6,與 Escalade 以及該品牌在豪華級距領先的電動車產品組合相互補強,包括 Escalade IQ、VISTIQ、LYRIQ 與 OPTIQ。此外,我們將自明年起把相當規模的製造移回美國本土,這將使我們在美國的產能提升至 200 萬輛以上,並進一步降低關稅曝險。

  • At the same time, our high-margin software and services revenues continue to grow rapidly with 1 million new subscriptions expected this year, contributing to more than $3 billion in recognized revenue. Next year, the growth should be even higher because we're making Super Cruise standard in high-end Silverado and Sierra trends and optional on most everything else.

    同時,我們高毛利的軟體與服務營收持續快速成長,預計今年新增 100 萬個訂閱,貢獻超過 30 億美元的已認列營收。明年的成長可望更高,因為我們將在高階 Silverado 與 Sierra 車型上把 Super Cruise 列為標配,並在其他多數車型上提供選配。

  • We're estimating 160,000 incremental Super Cruise units from this product enhancement strategy. Alongside our core vehicle portfolio and software growth, new business initiatives like GM Insurance and GM Defense are reaching critical mass because we offer unique value propositions.

    我們預估透過這項產品強化策略,Super Cruise 將新增 16 萬輛的增量搭載量。除核心車輛產品組合與軟體成長外,GM Insurance 與 GM Defense 等新業務計畫也正達到關鍵規模,因為我們提供獨特的價值主張。

  • For example, when a customer purchases GM Insurance, we create a reoccurring revenue stream from premiums, along with incremental parts and vehicle sales, all while driving customer loyalty and higher satisfaction. The business has scaled from three states in early 2024 to 21 states today, making GM insurance available to over 60% of GM's US sales, and we are on track to reach over 80% in the near term.

    例如,當客戶購買 GM Insurance 時,我們可從保費建立經常性營收來源,同時帶動零件與整車的增量銷售,並提升客戶忠誠度與滿意度。該業務已從 2024 年初的 3 個州擴展至目前的 21 個州,使 GM 保險可覆蓋通用汽車在美國超過 60% 的銷量,我們也正按計畫在短期內提升至 80% 以上。

  • GM Defense is another compelling growth opportunity that enables us to deliver defense solutions faster with better economics for the US taxpayer. The Chevrolet Colorado-based inventory squad vehicle is case in point. After initial multiyear order of about 1,200 ISVs, the US Army now plans to procure more than 10,000 if the appropriations is passed.

    GM Defense 是另一項具吸引力的成長機會,使我們能以更佳的經濟效益,為美國納稅人更快速地交付國防解決方案。以 Chevrolet Colorado 為基礎的步兵班用車(ISV)就是一個例子。在最初約 1,200 輛、為期多年的 ISV 訂單之後,美國陸軍目前計畫在撥款法案通過的情況下採購超過 10,000 輛。

  • We're building momentum with other products and customers, including the US State Department and Secret Service as well as Canada, Qatar, Brazil and other allies. And we're also supplying battery propulsion technology to Lunar outputs, which has been awarded $220 million NASA contract to build the next-generation Lunar terrain vehicle.

    我們也正透過其他產品與客戶累積動能,包括美國國務院與特勤局,以及加拿大、卡達、巴西與其他盟友。此外,我們也向 Lunar Outpost 供應電池推進技術;該公司已獲得美國太空總署(NASA)2.2 億美元合約,用於打造下一代月球地形車。

  • GM Defense expects 2026 revenue to grow to almost $700 million and is targeting positive results on an EBIT basis for this year, while also building a backlog of future business. We are expecting a top line revenue CAGR for GM Defense of more than 30% over the next several years with double-digit margins. This includes ISV awards that are expected to exceed $1 billion based on the US Army's procurement objectives.

    GM Defense 預期 2026 年營收將成長至接近 7 億美元,並以今年在 EBIT 基礎上達成轉正為目標,同時也在建立未來業務的訂單積壓(backlog)。我們預期 GM Defense 在未來數年營收年複合成長率(CAGR)將超過 30%,且利潤率可達雙位數。其中包括 ISV 的得標案,依據美國陸軍的採購目標,預計金額將超過 10 億美元。

  • We are also working with Lockheed Martin and other leading companies to expand speed, scale and resilience in the defense industrial base. We are focusing our efforts on strengthening supply chain management, improving manufacturing readiness and expanding production capacity in ways that serve the United States and its allies well. Over time, all of this should make GM Defense a more meaningful and diversified contributor to our earnings.

    我們也正與洛克希德馬丁(Lockheed Martin)及其他領先企業合作,以提升國防工業基礎的速度、規模與韌性。我們將重點放在強化供應鏈管理、提升製造就緒度,並以能更好服務美國及其盟友的方式擴充產能。隨著時間推進,這些作為應可使 GM Defense 成為對我們獲利更具意義且更多元化的貢獻來源。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Paul.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Paul。

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Mary, and I appreciate everyone joining us this morning. I also want to begin by recognizing the entire GM team whose hard work and consistent execution quarter after quarter underpin the solid results we're reporting today. In the first half of the year, we generated $92 billion in revenue and $8.2 billion of EBIT adjusted. EPS diluted adjusted increased more than 35% year-over-year to $7.27 a share. This was our best first half EPS diluted adjusted performance ever, more than 25% above the prior high.

    謝謝你,Mary,也感謝各位今天早上與我們一同參與。我也想先表揚整個 GM 團隊;大家一季又一季的辛勤付出與穩健執行,是我們今天所報告穩健成果的基礎。今年上半年,我們創造了 920 億美元營收,以及 82 億美元的調整後 EBIT。調整後稀釋 EPS 年增超過 35%,達到每股 7.27 美元。這是我們史上最佳的上半年調整後稀釋 EPS 表現,較先前高點高出逾 25%。

  • Put simply, in just six months, we delivered an EPS result that was better than 6 of our last 10 full years. A clear reflection of how GM has transformed itself over the past decade by strengthening our product portfolio to drive revenue growth, improving core operating performance, lowering costs and materially reducing our share count through significant share repurchases.

    簡而言之,僅用六個月,我們交出的 EPS 成果就優於過去 10 個完整年度中的 6 年。這清楚反映 GM 在過去十年如何完成轉型:透過強化產品組合以帶動營收成長、改善核心營運表現、降低成本,並藉由大規模庫藏股回購顯著降低流通股數。

  • We also maintained our pricing discipline with incentives as a percentage of MSRP running 1.5 points to 2 points below the industry average, helping to improve total company margin by 1.8 points year-over-year in the first half alone. In addition, fleet sales have been strong with our best first half in more than five years, including our highest government sales since 2009 and record full-size pickup sales, driven by strong commercial demand.

    我們也維持了定價紀律;以 MSRP(建議售價)百分比衡量的促銷補貼(incentives)比率,較產業平均低 1.5 到 2 個百分點,僅上半年就協助全公司毛利率年增 1.8 個百分點。此外,車隊銷售表現強勁,創下五年多來最佳上半年成績,其中包括自 2009 年以來最高的政府銷售,以及在強勁商用需求帶動下創紀錄的全尺寸皮卡銷售。

  • Importantly, the growth in fleet comes without diluting margin. Year-over-year, our market share was down by about 60 basis points versus the first half of 2025 largely reflecting three factors, one, strategic decisions to discontinue certain vehicles in our portfolio, including the Chevrolet Malibu and the Cadillac XT4. Two, a smaller EV market following reductions in consumer incentives. And three, tight dealer inventory early in the year, which was at a low point in January and February.

    重要的是,車隊成長並未稀釋利潤率。與 2025 年上半年相比,我們市占率年減約 60 個基點,主要反映三項因素:第一,基於策略考量,我們決定停產產品組合中的部分車款,包括 Chevrolet Malibu 與 Cadillac XT4。第二,因消費者補貼減少,電動車市場規模縮小。第三,年初經銷商庫存偏緊,並在 1 月與 2 月達到低點。

  • But as Mary mentioned, the investments we are making to onshore production launch key vehicles and expand full-size SUV capacity will give us more flexibility and position us to grow revenue, gain market share and improved profitability in 2027. On capital allocation, our strong first half adjusted automotive free cash flow of $6.3 billion allowed us to continue executing against our share buyback program.

    但如 Mary 所提到,我們為將生產移回本土(onshore)以導入關鍵車款、並擴大全尺寸 SUV 產能所做的投資,將帶來更高的彈性,並使我們在 2027 年具備營收成長、市占提升與獲利能力改善的定位。在資本配置方面,我們上半年強勁的調整後汽車業務自由現金流達 63 億美元,使我們得以持續執行庫藏股回購計畫。

  • In the second quarter, we made $2 billion in open market share repurchases, retiring approximately 25 million shares which brings our first half total to $2.8 billion repurchased and 36 million shares retired. This is nearly $1 billion more than the first half of last year, despite our EV restructuring efforts.

    在第二季,我們於公開市場回購 20 億美元股票,註銷約 2,500 萬股,使上半年合計回購金額達 28 億美元、註銷 3,600 萬股。即使我們正在進行電動車重整(restructuring),此金額仍較去年上半年多出近 10 億美元。

  • We ended the second quarter with a diluted share count of 893 million, approximately 8% below where we ended the second quarter of 2025 and 35% below the second quarter of 2023. We have $3.5 billion remaining under our current repurchase authorization and expect to continue to consistently repurchase shares, supported by strong cash flow and our ending Q2 automotive cash balance of $19.7 billion.

    第二季結束時,我們的稀釋後股數為 8.93 億股,較 2025 年第二季結束時約低 8%,較 2023 年第二季低 35%。在目前的回購授權下,我們尚餘 35 億美元額度,並預期在強勁現金流與第二季末 197 億美元汽車業務現金餘額的支持下,將持續穩定回購股票。

  • Now let's turn to the second quarter financial results in more detail. Total company revenue of $48 billion was up $900 million year-over-year, driven by higher wholesale volumes, reflecting higher ICE volumes in both North America and South America, partially offset by lower EV volumes.

    接下來我們更詳細地說明第二季財務表現。全公司營收 480 億美元,年增 9 億美元,主要由批發銷量增加所帶動,反映北美與南美的 ICE(內燃機)銷量提升,但部分被電動車銷量下降所抵銷。

  • EBIT adjusted of $3.9 billion was up $900 million year-over-year. The improvement was driven primarily by core business performance supported by stronger pricing and lower costs including EV, warranty and emissions-related regulatory tailwinds. Adjusted automotive free cash flow of $5 billion was up $2.2 billion year-over-year. The improvement was driven by higher earnings and timing of both tariff reimbursements and CapEx spending.

    調整後 EBIT 為 39 億美元,年增 9 億美元。改善主要來自核心業務表現,在更強的定價與更低成本的支持下,包括電動車、保固以及排放相關法規帶來的有利因素(tailwinds)。調整後汽車業務自由現金流為 50 億美元,年增 22 億美元。改善主要由更高獲利,以及關稅補償與資本支出(CapEx)支出的時點差異所帶動。

  • Let me now update you on our EV-related restructuring. In the second quarter, we recorded $2.3 billion in incremental charges. Of that amount, $900 million was supplier-related cash charges, $700 million in cash charges to rightsize the battery supply chain with our joint venture partners and $700 million were noncash write-offs for compliance related and other asset impairments.

    接著我更新我們與電動車相關的重整進度。第二季我們認列了 23 億美元的新增費用。其中 9 億美元為與供應商相關的現金費用,7 億美元為與合資夥伴調整電池供應鏈規模(rightsize)的現金費用,另有 7 億美元為非現金沖銷,主要與合規相關及其他資產減損。

  • In total, we have recorded $10.9 billion of EV-related charges since the second half of 2025, of which approximately $7.2 billion will have a cash impact. Through the end of the second quarter, we paid $4.5 billion of this amount. Our teams have worked tirelessly with our partners and suppliers across the EV value chain to conclude these negotiations quickly.

    合計自 2025 年下半年以來,我們已認列 109 億美元的電動車相關費用,其中約 72 億美元將影響現金。截至第二季末,我們已支付其中 45 億美元。我們的團隊與電動車價值鏈上的合作夥伴與供應商不懈努力,以盡快完成這些協商。

  • I'm proud to say that we believe these actions substantially complete the material cash charges we expect to incur, as we align our EV capacity and manufacturing footprint with the changes in regulatory policy. While circumstances may change in the future, and we may have some true-ups, it's important to get this work behind us.

    我很自豪地表示,我們相信這些行動已實質完成我們預期將發生的重大現金費用,因為我們正使電動車產能與製造據點配置,與法規政策變化相一致。雖然未來情況可能改變,我們也可能需要進行一些調整(true-ups),但把這項工作告一段落非常重要。

  • Now let's move to our second quarter regional results. North America delivered EBIT adjusted of $3.4 billion, up $1 billion or over 40% year-over-year. Margin was 8.6%, an improvement of 2.5 points from a year ago when tariffs were first put into place. Having worked through much of that pressure, we are solidly back within our 8% to 10% margin target, a clear marker of the progress this team has made.

    現在我們來看第二季各區域表現。北美調整後 EBIT 為 34 億美元,年增 10 億美元,增幅超過 40%。利潤率為 8.6%,較一年前(關稅剛開始實施時)提升 2.5 個百分點。在消化了大部分壓力後,我們已穩健回到 8% 至 10% 的利潤率目標區間,這清楚標示出該團隊所取得的進展。

  • The improvement was broad-based, driven by strong pricing, lower EV losses from rightsizing our capacity along with continued warranty and emissions-related regulatory tailwinds. These gains were partially offset by commodity inflation, including logistics and higher DRAM costs, along with manufacturing costs related to onshoring production to the US.

    改善是全面性的,主要由強勁定價、透過調整產能規模降低電動車虧損,以及持續的保固與排放相關法規有利因素所帶動。上述增益部分被大宗商品通膨所抵銷,包括物流與更高的 DRAM 成本,以及將生產移回美國(onshoring)所帶來的製造成本。

  • Total US dealer inventory ended the quarter at 511,000 units or approximately 55 days of supply. This is right in the middle of our targeted range of 50 to 60 days. GM International, excluding China equity income, delivered EBIT-adjusted of $100 million, driven by strong execution across most of the regions. While Middle East wholesales were significantly impacted by shipping disruptions, strong sales performance in South America partially offset this headwind.

    美國經銷商總庫存於季末為 511,000 輛,約相當於 55 天供應量。這正落在我們目標區間 50 至 60 天的中間。GM International(不含中國權益法收益)調整後 EBIT 為 1 億美元,主要來自多數區域的強勁執行。雖然中東批發量受到航運中斷的顯著影響,但南美強勁的銷售表現部分抵銷了這項逆風。

  • China equity income was $100 million. The team deserves a lot of credit for the restructuring work they did to enable us to be profitable despite the very difficult environment. We remain focused on execution, cost efficiencies and mix optimization to deliver ongoing profitability.

    中國股權收益為1億美元。團隊在重組工作上功不可沒,使我們即使在極為艱難的環境下仍能實現獲利。我們仍專注於執行、成本效率與組合優化,以帶來持續的獲利能力。

  • GM Financial delivered EBT adjusted of $600 million and paid $250 million in dividends to GM in the quarter, reinforcing our strategic value within the enterprise. Since 2019, GMF has grown its balance sheet by more than 25%, while outperforming other captive finance companies on profitability and growth. This performance reflects disciplined execution and the ability to generate consistent, risk-appropriate returns and is further supported by GM Financial, maintaining its leadership position in manufacturer loyalty for 10 consecutive years. The business remains within its full year [EBT] adjusted guidance of $2.5 billion to $3 billion and is on track to pay full year dividends to GM similar to last year.

    GM Financial 本季交出經調整稅前盈餘(EBT)6億美元,並向 GM 支付2.5億美元股利,進一步強化其在企業內的策略價值。自2019年以來,GMF 的資產負債表規模成長超過25%,同時在獲利能力與成長方面優於其他汽車金融子公司(captives)。此表現反映出嚴謹的執行力與創造一致、風險相稱報酬的能力,並且在 GM Financial 連續10年維持製造商品牌忠誠度領先地位的支持下更為穩固。該業務仍落在全年經調整[EBT]指引25億至30億美元範圍內,並有望支付與去年相近的全年股利給 GM。

  • Based on our strong operating performance, including improved pricing and warranty assumptions, as well as a slightly better commodity outlook, we are raising our full year guidance across all of our key metrics. We now expect EBIT adjusted of $14 billion to $16 billion, up from $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion. EPS diluted adjusted of $12 to $14, up from $11.50 to $13.50 per share, and adjusted automotive free cash flow of $9.5 billion to $11.5 billion, up from $9 billion to $11 billion previously.

    基於我們強勁的營運表現(包括定價改善與保固假設改善),以及商品展望略為好轉,我們上調全年在所有關鍵指標上的指引。我們目前預期經調整 EBIT 為140億至160億美元,高於先前的135億至155億美元。經調整稀釋後 EPS 為每股12至14美元,高於先前的每股11.50至13.50美元;經調整汽車業務自由現金流為95億至115億美元,高於先前的90億至110億美元。

  • Before I address the key assumptions underlying our updated full year guidance, I want to note that it assumes no material escalation in the Middle East and no significant increase in commodity or other inflationary pressures from current levels.

    在我說明更新後全年指引所依據的關鍵假設之前,我想先指出:該指引假設中東局勢不會出現重大升級,且商品或其他通膨壓力不會較目前水準顯著上升。

  • Starting with the industry backdrop, we continue to assume US total SAAR in the low 16 million unit range for the full year, consistent with where it has run year-to-date. North America ICE wholesales were up approximately 1% in the first half, and we expect second half year-over-year volumes to be up in a similar range. We continue to be constrained by full-size truck production, including the impact of the new truck launch and the planned discontinuation of certain vehicles we referenced earlier.

    先從產業背景談起,我們仍假設美國全年總 SAAR 落在約1,600萬輛出頭的區間,與年初至今的走勢一致。北美 ICE(內燃機)批發量上半年約年增1%,我們預期下半年年對年量也將在相近區間成長。我們仍受限於全尺寸卡車產能,包括新車款上市的影響,以及我們先前提到的部分車型計畫停產。

  • Turning to EVs. We continue to expect losses to improve by $1 billion to $1.5 billion for the full year, driven by rightsizing our EV capacity and significantly lower volume. In the first half, we realized approximately $500 million of this benefit. We expect EV wholesale volumes to be up slightly in the second half, as we resume building to demand.

    接著談電動車(EV)。我們仍預期全年虧損將改善10億至15億美元,主要由電動車產能調整至適當規模以及顯著較低的銷量所帶動。上半年我們已實現約5億美元的效益。隨著我們恢復按需求生產,預期下半年 EV 批發量將小幅上升。

  • Warranty is tracking to a $1 billion to $1.5 billion improvement year-over-year for the full year, above our previous assumption of up $1 billion. We realized $500 million in the first half and expect most of the remaining benefit flow through in the third quarter. Emissions-related regulatory savings remain on track as well. We continue to expect a full year benefit of $500 million to $750 million primarily from lower regulatory credit amortization.

    保固成本全年年對年改善預計為10億至15億美元,優於我們先前「改善10億美元」的假設。上半年我們已實現5億美元,並預期剩餘效益大多將在第三季反映。排放相關的法規節省也仍按計畫進行。我們仍預期全年效益為5億至7.5億美元,主要來自法規信用攤銷降低。

  • We recognized approximately $400 million in the first half and expect a smaller benefit in the second half as we begin to lap the savings that started in the second half of 2025. On pricing, we recognized a $600 million year-over-year benefit in the first half and now expect full year North America pricing to be up around 0.5%, which is at the high end of our prior guidance. The pricing benefit is expected to be smaller in the second half, as we lap last year's 2026 model year price increases.

    上半年我們已認列約4億美元,且預期下半年效益較小,因為我們將開始與2025年下半年開始的節省形成比較基期(lap)。在定價方面,上半年我們認列年對年6億美元的效益,並且目前預期全年北美定價約上升0.5%,位於先前指引的高端。由於我們將與去年2026年式車款的漲價形成比較基期,下半年定價效益預期將較小。

  • We continue to expect gross tariff costs of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion for the full year, which is largely flat year-over-year. Through the first half, we incurred approximately $1.3 billion net of the $500 million EPA benefit recognized in the first quarter. We expect the gross tariff impact in each of the third and fourth quarters to be similar to the impact of the second, which was around $900 million.

    我們仍預期全年關稅總成本為25億至35億美元,年對年大致持平。截至上半年,我們已發生約13億美元(已扣除第一季認列的5億美元 EPA 效益)。我們預期第三季與第四季各季的關稅總影響將與第二季相近,約為9億美元。

  • Let's now turn to the headwinds. We continue to expect commodity inflation, logistics and higher DRAM cost to be a headwind of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for the full year. We realized approximately $600 million in commodity costs in the first half and expect that headwind to increase in the second half, largely because it reflects two quarters of higher costs rather than just one.

    接著談逆風因素。我們仍預期商品通膨、物流以及 DRAM 成本上升,全年將帶來15億至20億美元的逆風。上半年我們已承擔約6億美元的商品成本,並預期下半年逆風將加大,主要因為其反映的是兩季的較高成本,而非僅一季。

  • In addition, spot rates continued to rise after our first quarter earnings call. And while they have eased somewhat recently, several commodities remain above those levels. Also, given the lag in how these costs flow through our results, the recent improvement should begin to benefit us in the fourth quarter and into early 2027.

    此外,在我們第一季財報電話會議之後,即期價格(spot rates)持續上升。雖然近期已有所緩和,但仍有數項商品價格高於那些水準。同時,鑑於這些成本反映到我們業績的時間落差,近期的改善應會在第四季開始帶來效益,並延續至2027年初。

  • On DRAM specifically, our expanded collaboration with Micron strengthens access to critical memory technologies and deepens integration across our vehicle platforms, reinforcing supply availability for the long term. Separately, we're also investing approximately $1 billion to $1.5 billion this year to onshore production to the US, strengthen our supply chain and expand our software capabilities. We incurred approximately $400 million in the first half, and we expect these costs to ramp further in the second half as we approach production in 2027.

    就 DRAM 而言,我們與美光(Micron)擴大合作,強化取得關鍵記憶體技術的管道,並加深在車輛平台間的整合,進一步鞏固長期供應可得性。另外,我們今年也將投資約10億至15億美元,把生產移回美國本土(onshore),強化供應鏈並擴展軟體能力。上半年我們已發生約4億美元,且預期隨著我們接近2027年投產,下半年這些成本將進一步攀升。

  • Finally, turning to our international operations. We continue to expect some softness in GM International ex-China, reflecting the dynamic environment in the Middle East. From a cadence perspective, we expect the fourth quarter to be somewhat weaker than typical seasonal patterns would imply primarily due to the launch of our new full-size trucks, including higher launch-related costs and anticipated year-over-year volume headwind of approximately 35,000 units. We also expect onshoring costs to build as the year progresses, with the fourth quarter having the largest impact as we prepare to transfer escalate production to Orion assembly.

    最後,談到我們的國際業務。我們仍預期 GM International(不含中國)將出現一定程度的疲弱,反映中東的動態環境。就節奏而言,我們預期第四季將較典型季節性模式偏弱,主要因新款全尺寸卡車上市,包括較高的上市相關成本,以及預期年對年銷量逆風約3.5萬輛。我們也預期隨著年度推進,本土化(onshoring)成本將逐步增加,其中第四季影響最大,因為我們正準備將升級後的產能轉移至 Orion 組裝廠。

  • Before I close, I want to take a moment to underscore the strength of our core business. In North America, margins have returned to our 8% to 10% target range, and we are winning in the segments that matter most, including full-size trucks and SUVs, while maintaining disciplined pricing and inventory levels. That strength provides the foundation for everything else we are building. Our OnStar digital business, including Super Cruise, remains a growing margin accretive asset.

    在結束之前,我想花點時間強調我們核心業務的強勁。在北美,利潤率已回到我們8%至10%的目標區間;我們在最重要的細分市場持續勝出,包括全尺寸卡車與 SUV,同時維持嚴謹的定價與庫存水位。這份強勁為我們正在打造的其他一切提供了基礎。我們的 OnStar 數位業務(包括 Super Cruise)仍是持續成長、並能提升利潤率的資產。

  • Subscriber growth drove deferred revenue to $6.3 billion, up almost 50% from a year ago, while second quarter recognized revenue was $800 million, up 20% year-over-year and well on pace to hit our full year growth target of $400 million.

    訂戶成長帶動遞延收入達63億美元,較一年前增加近50%;同時第二季已認列收入為8億美元,年增20%,並正穩步達成我們全年4億美元的成長目標。

  • This momentum carries into 2027, where amortization of our existing deferred and subscriber growth is expected to drive double-digit growth in realized revenue building on our estimated full year 2026 realized revenue of more than $3 billion. We are also building a select number of adjacent higher-margin businesses, including GM Defense and GM Insurance in a capital-efficient manner that leverages our capabilities. These businesses are modest contributors today, but we are optimistic about the long-term opportunities they present and will continue to share progress as they scale.

    這股動能將延續至 2027 年,屆時我們既有遞延項目的攤銷以及訂閱用戶成長,預期將帶動已實現營收的兩位數成長,並在我們估計 2026 全年已實現營收超過 30 億美元的基礎上再向上提升。我們也正以資本效率高的方式、善用自身能力,打造少數相鄰且毛利率更高的業務,包括 GM Defense 與 GM Insurance。這些業務目前貢獻仍小,但我們對其帶來的長期機會感到樂觀,並將在其規模擴大之際持續分享進展。

  • While our primary focus is to deliver on our 2026 commitments, we are already looking ahead to 2027. And as Mary mentioned, based on what we know today, we believe we can grow revenue, margins, EBIT and free cash flow next year.

    雖然我們的首要重點是兌現 2026 年的承諾,但我們已經在展望 2027 年。而且如 Mary 所提到的,基於我們目前所掌握的資訊,我們相信明年可以提升營收、利潤率、EBIT 與自由現金流。

  • Several drivers support this view, including continued improvement in EV profitability, growth in OnStar digital revenue, incremental warranty improvements, fixed cost efficiencies, a full year of our all-new Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups and increased full-size SUV supply to meet demand in the US and in markets around the world.

    多項驅動因素支持這個觀點,包括電動車獲利能力持續改善、OnStar 數位營收成長、保固的增量改善、固定成本效率提升、全新 Chevy Silverado 與 GMC Sierra 皮卡的全年貢獻,以及增加全尺寸 SUV 供給以滿足美國及全球市場需求。

  • Additionally, as we also continue to repurchase shares, we can expect even further EPS growth. With a broad portfolio of EV and ICE vehicles, we are well positioned to capture demand across segments and continue delivering ongoing value for both our customers and our shareholders.

    此外,隨著我們也持續回購股份,我們可望看到每股盈餘(EPS)進一步成長。憑藉涵蓋電動車(EV)與燃油車(ICE)的廣泛產品組合,我們具備良好定位以掌握各細分市場的需求,並持續為客戶與股東創造長期價值。

  • And with that, we'll move to the Q&A portion of the call.

    接下來,我們將進入本次電話會議的問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Joe Spak, UBS.

    UBS 的 Joe Spak。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Paul, I actually wanted to start with some of the commentary you just made on Super Cruise. And Mary, you mentioned the plus 160,000 Super Cruise able pick up standard on the high-end trims and option and everything else. So it's good to see that scaling. But like right now, I think it's really only available on the high country on the Silverado. That's like a $6,000, $7,000 package, maybe there's some discounts from time.

    謝謝。各位早安。Paul,我其實想先從你剛才對 Super Cruise 的一些評論談起。Mary,你提到超過 16 萬輛具備 Super Cruise 功能的車款,在高階車型上成為標配,並且也可作為選配等。所以很高興看到它在擴大規模。但就目前來看,我認為它在 Silverado 上似乎只提供於 High Country 車型。那大概是一個 6,000 到 7,000 美元的套件,或許有時也會有一些折扣。

  • So, and even if we look across other vehicles, it looks like it's at least a [$4,000] option. So that seems like it could be a pretty big potential tailwind to pricing in '27, and I know you alluded to sort of tech as a pricing tailwind for '27.

    所以,即便我們看其他車款,它看起來至少也是一個約 [4,000 美元] 的選配。因此,這似乎可能成為 2027 年定價的一個相當大的潛在順風,而我知道你也提到科技可能是 2027 年定價的順風因素。

  • But I guess what I'm really curious about here is, one, are we -- should we also expect Super Cruise to scale, at least from an availability perspective across other vehicles? And then two, are you changing the pricing structure of Super Cruise at all as you democratize the solution either to the upfront cost or the eventual monthly charge?

    但我真正好奇的是:第一,我們是否——至少從可用性角度來看——也應該預期 Super Cruise 會在更多車款上擴大配置?第二,當你們讓這套方案更普及時,是否會在 Super Cruise 的定價結構上做任何調整——不論是一次性的前期費用,或是後續的每月收費?

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So, hey, Joe, we continually evaluate based on customer reception of Super Cruise of how we expanded and are also looking at pricing. So I don't have anything specific to announce today, but we do see the opportunity for the growth that we're going to see with the full-size truck launch, the light duties. And also, we're expanding in three regions and continuing to add more miles. So we think it's an option that customers like. We have a very high attach rate when they go out of their, out of the period that are included in the price of the vehicle. So we're pretty optimistic that we're going to continue to grow that business.

    所以,嗨 Joe,我們會根據客戶對 Super Cruise 的反應,持續評估我們如何擴大推廣,同時也會檢視定價。因此我今天沒有任何具體事項可以宣布,但我們確實看到機會:隨著全尺寸卡車(輕型車)上市,我們將看到成長。此外,我們也正在擴展到三個地區,並持續增加可用里程。因此我們認為這是一個客戶喜歡的選項。當客戶走出車價所包含的期間後,我們有非常高的續訂/加購率。所以我們對於能持續擴大這項業務相當樂觀。

  • Did I miss anything there?

    我有漏掉什麼嗎?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I'd just add, Joe, that this is pretty consistent with what we've been saying for the last few years. The vehicles that are coming up on the end of the three years were produced at the tail end of the chip crisis, and we know Super Cruise was one of the more impacted on. So we're starting to see the scale, but I think it's not just '27, it's beyond that, and that's why we keep leaning into the digital revenue story with $6.3 billion of deferred revenue on the balance sheet already. That's approaching $7.5 billion by the end of the year.

    我只想補充一下,Joe,這與我們過去幾年一直在說的內容相當一致。即將到三年期滿的那些車輛,是在晶片危機尾聲時期生產的,而我們知道 Super Cruise 是受影響較大的項目之一。因此我們開始看到規模化,但我認為不只是 2027 年,還會延伸到更久之後;這也是為什麼我們持續強調數位營收的故事——資產負債表上已經有 63 億美元的遞延收入。到今年年底將接近 75 億美元。

  • And as Mary mentioned, the 1 million additional subscription this year across the digital portfolio. Super Cruise is a piece of that. So we're seeing really encouraging attachment rates in the 30% to 40% range, as Mary mentioned, and now the next strategy is how do you proliferate it? How do you expand it to make it more available that's possible as we get cost down and as the product continues to evolve. So it's not just about '27, we think it goes even beyond that and why we've spent a good bit of time talking about what the future looks like across the entirety of a GM car park that's got software-enabled features.

    而如 Mary 所提到的,今年在整體數位產品組合中新增了 100 萬個訂閱。Super Cruise 是其中的一部分。因此我們看到相當令人鼓舞的附加率(attach rate),如 Mary 所說約在 30% 到 40% 的區間;接下來的策略就是如何讓它更普及。隨著成本下降、產品持續演進,我們如何擴大並讓它更容易取得,這是可行的。所以不只是 2027 年,我們認為還會延伸到更久之後;這也是為什麼我們花了不少時間談論未來在整個 GM 車隊中、具備軟體啟用功能的各項特性將會是什麼樣貌。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Thank you. Second one is just on warranty, which seems like it was -- it's sort of coming in more favorable. I was wondering if you could maybe quantify how much warranty helped on a year-over-year basis in the quarter.

    謝謝。第二個問題是關於保固,看起來——它的表現似乎更有利。我想請問你們是否可以量化一下,本季保固在年對年基礎上帶來了多少助益?

  • And then if I recall, I think it's the third quarter where you typically have this reevaluation and potential reset of accrual rates. So with respect to your full year commentary on warranty, I just want to make sure that really that's sort of the better experience you've seen to date and then there's maybe some potential for a reset to lower accruals later this year as well. Is that correct?

    另外,如果我沒記錯的話,我想通常是在第三季你們會進行這種重新評估,並可能重設提列率。因此就你們對全年保固的評論而言,我只是想確認:那主要是基於你們迄今看到的較佳經驗,然後今年稍晚也可能還有把提列下調、重新設定的空間。這樣理解正確嗎?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So as we said in the prepared remarks, Joe, it's about $500 million of benefit in the first half of the year. And we increased from $1 billion year-over-year tailwind to $1 billion to $1.5 billion. That's really as we're starting to look at what the September quarter Q3 adjustment will be and as we go forward. So we continue to see some good trends. It's not without some new challenges that pop up from time to time. But I think the team overall is executing well.

    是的。所以如同我們在事先準備的發言中所說,Joe,上半年約有 5 億美元的助益。我們也把年對年的順風從 10 億美元上調至 10 億到 15 億美元。這主要是因為我們開始評估 9 月季度、也就是第三季(Q3)的調整,以及後續的走勢。因此我們持續看到一些良好趨勢。當然也不是沒有新的挑戰會不時出現。但我認為整個團隊的執行表現整體而言是好的。

  • And we think that this is part of the multiyear tailwind. So ideally, as we've talked about before, the monthly cash outflows plateau and then start to come down as we get through some of these historic quality spills, et cetera. And that's where we can see benefit into '27 and '28 beyond what we're seeing in '26.

    而且我們認為這是多年期順風的一部分。所以理想情況下,如同我們之前談過的,每月現金流出會先趨於持平,然後在我們度過一些歷史性的品質事件等之後開始下降。而這就是我們能在 2027 與 2028 年看到效益的地方,超過我們在 2026 年所看到的。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I would also say we're using a lot of initial tool simulation, artificial intelligence to find problems earlier and make sure we validate more, which is going to be evident in the truck that we're launching. So there's a lot going on to make sure the products are of higher quality and even looking at the longer-term durability as well.

    我也想補充,我們正在使用大量的初期工具模擬與人工智慧,更早發現問題並確保進行更多驗證,這將會在我們即將推出的卡車上有所體現。因此我們正在做很多工作,以確保產品具備更高品質,同時也會檢視更長期的耐久性。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Levy, Barclays.

    Dan Levy,巴克萊。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Just wanted to start with the question on the 2026 guidance. I think when we add up some of the pieces here between better pricing, better warranty looks like your wholesales are slightly better and then you're talking about slightly better commodities. It seems to add up to somewhat more than the guidance raise that you should. I know there is a range and whatnot. But maybe you could just talk to what potential offsets there are versus all of those positives?

    嗨,早安。感謝讓我提問。我想先從 2026 年的指引問題開始。我想如果把這裡幾個因素加總起來,包括更好的定價、更好的保固,看起來你們的批發量略有改善,然後你們也提到商品成本略有改善。看起來加總起來的效果似乎比你們上調指引的幅度還要更大一些。我知道有區間等等。但也許你們可以談談,相對於這些正面因素,可能有哪些抵銷項?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey, Dan, good morning, thanks for the question. On the commodity piece, I don't -- I want to make sure that we're really clear. I don't think we are projecting lower commodity prices for the second half than the first half. What we saw when we raised the cost guidance in Q1, we continue to see prices increase after that first quarter earnings date.

    嗨,Dan,早安,謝謝你的問題。關於商品那一塊,我不——我想確保我們講得非常清楚。我不認為我們是在預測下半年商品價格會比上半年更低。我們在第一季上調成本指引時所看到的情況,在第一季財報公布日之後,我們仍持續看到價格上升。

  • So while we've seen a little bit of coming off of it, it's still right in line with where our cost guidance and commodity guidance has been. So the reason for the guidance raise is, okay, if we believe that it's plateaued here, we can bank what we've sort of earned ahead of expectations in the first half of the year.

    所以雖然我們看到有一點點回落,但仍然與我們的成本指引與商品指引所假設的水準一致。因此這次上調指引的原因是:好,如果我們相信它已在這裡趨於平台,我們就可以把上半年超出預期所「賺到」的部分先鎖定下來。

  • So that's why we wanted to be cautious and say it doesn't assume that we have significantly more inflation -- up of conflict, et cetera. So I just want to make sure that we're not confusing that with a tailwind from where we were just a few months ago. It really has stabilized a bit at those estimated levels. So when you think about the year, we know that some of the cost pressures that we talked about, as we ramp up Orion and make the investments and some of the DRAM inflation was backloaded.

    所以這就是為什麼我們想要保守一點,並說這並不假設我們會面臨顯著更多的通膨——例如衝突升級等等。我只是想確保大家不要把這解讀成相較於幾個月前的順風。它其實是在那些估計水準上稍微穩定下來了。所以當你看全年時,我們知道我們談到的一些成本壓力,隨著我們提升 Orion 產能並進行投資,以及部分 DRAM 通膨是偏向下半年發生的。

  • But what we're saying is the initiatives that we've undertaken, the benefits that we're seeing in pricing and warranty are helping to overcome that and give us more confidence about the full year given our first half outperformance.

    但我們要說的是,我們所採取的各項措施,以及我們在定價與保固方面看到的效益,正在幫助我們克服這些因素,並且鑑於上半年表現超預期,讓我們對全年更有信心。

  • Sorry, that was a long answer.

    抱歉,回答得有點長。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. As a second question, I wanted to double-click on the new truck launch. And your materials point to opportunity on the pricing side. Now I think anyone that's just looking at the third-party data, fees just how well the trucks are doing this very, very dominant share, imagine that, that's somewhat contributing to your pricing strength as well. But help us understand from this position of strength that you're in how much incremental benefit there is?

    了解。謝謝。第二個問題,我想更深入問一下新卡車的上市。你們的資料提到在定價面有機會。我想任何人只要看第三方數據,都能看到這些卡車表現非常好、占有率非常、非常強勢,我想這也在某種程度上推動了你們的定價力道。但請幫我們理解,在你們目前這樣的強勢地位下,還有多少額外的增量效益?

  • I mean, maybe you could talk about what specifically is driving that upside on pricing? And maybe you could put this in context of, and I know this is a question that keeps on coming up the competitive environment where there's one of your competitors that seems to be in a position where they have to catch up quite a bit, put that in context in the broader environment, where you're already in a very strong position, you're saying things can get even better from here?

    也許你可以談談,究竟是什麼在推動定價的上行空間?另外也許可以把這放在一個脈絡下——我知道這個問題一直被提到——競爭環境方面,有一家競爭對手似乎處於必須大幅追趕的位置;把這放到更廣泛的環境中來看,當你們已經處於非常強勢的位置時,你們還在說從這裡開始還能更好?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So I think we're incredibly pleased with the current generation of trucks and how they've held up in terms of pricing. We haven't seen the typical heavy discounting at the end of the cycle that I think is permeated historical model.

    是的。所以我想我們對目前這一代卡車,以及它們在定價方面的表現非常滿意。我們沒有看到我認為在過去車型中常見、在產品週期末端出現的那種典型大幅折扣。

  • But as you look at every new model year, every new launch like this, we're adding new features, we're adding new functionality across the board, and we'll see an opportunity where we can to potentially take price across the board. We expect really strong demand. As always, there's a little bit of a richer trim mix, as you're starting to ramp up production as well.

    但當你看每一個新車型年度、每一次像這樣的新上市,我們都在增加新功能、增加新的使用性,全面提升;因此在有機會的地方,我們會看到可能在整體上調價格的空間。我們預期需求會非常強勁。一如往常,隨著你開始提升產量,配備等級組合也會稍微更偏高階一些。

  • So I think all of those contribute. But when you look at the strength of the vehicles, the way they've held up the market share strength that we've had, it looks really, really promising. We're excited about the next generation of trucks.

    所以我想這些因素都會有所貢獻。但當你看車輛本身的強勢、它們維持的表現,以及我們所擁有的強勁市占,看起來非常、非常有前景。我們對下一代卡車感到很興奮。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • And is the pricing piece partially just a trim comment? Or.

    那定價這一塊,部分只是配備等級(trim)的因素嗎?還是……

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I mean, we haven't made any public comments about how that's going to price. We're going to continue to look at the market. But I would say that we're optimistic as we are with most new vehicle launches.

    我的意思是,我們尚未對外公開評論它將如何定價。我們會持續觀察市場。但我會說,和大多數新車上市一樣,我們是樂觀的。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The reception has been really strong on the truck. Remember, we're at record levels of production this year. I stated that we're going to maintain those next year, as we're launching as well as new engines. And then there is upside opportunity really as we get into the end of '27, '28 because we've got all the launches going through the year.

    市場對這款卡車的反應非常強烈。記得,我們今年的產量處於創紀錄水準。我也提到,明年在推出新車型以及新引擎的同時,我們會維持那些產量水準。然後真正的上行機會會在 2027 年底、2028 年左右,因為我們全年都有各項新上市在推進。

  • So we're going to build on a really strong year with what we think is the truck customers are going to love from a performance perspective and design performance technology. So I think it's going to just continue the momentum we have in the truck market of leading from an overall share perspective.

    所以我們會在我們認為非常強勁的一年基礎上再接再厲;從性能、設計、性能技術等面向來看,我們相信卡車客戶會非常喜歡。因此我認為這將延續我們在卡車市場的動能,並在整體市占角度持續領先。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    很好,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Percoco, Morgan Stanley.

    Andrew Percoco,摩根士丹利。

  • Andrew Percoco - Analyst

    Andrew Percoco - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much for taking the questions this morning. I wanted to start off, Mary, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, everything that you're doing on GM Defense and how that's helping diversify the business. But I did want to double-click on the investments that you guys have made in sodium ion battery storage with Peak Energy and just get a better understanding of what your strategy is and why you chose to go down that path and what that might look like for your business over the next, call it, 18 to 24 months?

    很好。非常感謝今天早上讓我提問。我想先從這裡開始,Mary,你在事先準備的發言中提到你們在 GM Defense 所做的一切,以及這如何幫助業務多元化。但我也想更深入問一下你們與 Peak Energy 在鈉離子電池儲能方面所做的投資,想更了解你們的策略是什麼、為什麼選擇走這條路,以及在接下來大概 18 到 24 個月內,這對你們的業務可能會是什麼樣子?

  • Just trying to get a better understanding of how you're going to essentially leverage your manufacturing scale, your supply chains to be relevant in the energy storage market. We're obviously seeing some of your competitors do this as well. So just curious to get a better understanding of your thought process around sodium ion and what you see as the commercialization time line there.

    我只是想更了解,你們將如何運用你們的製造規模與供應鏈,讓自己在儲能市場中具備相關性。我們顯然也看到你們的一些競爭對手也在做這件事。所以想請教你們對鈉離子技術的思考脈絡,以及你們看到的商業化時間表會是如何。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Well, first of all, we think sodium ion batteries are an emerging battery chemistry that is going to be attractive and have advantages over other chemistries from a safety storage perspective. We think that sodium offer could offer lower cost over time than LFP.

    當然。首先,我們認為鈉離子電池是一種新興的電池化學體系,從安全性與儲存的角度來看,將會很有吸引力,並且相較其他化學體系具備優勢。我們認為,隨著時間推進,鈉離子方案的成本可能會低於 LFP。

  • And as we know, there's an abundance of sodium. There's also a potential for simpler system designs. So we think it's really well suited for grid storage. Also it has strong performance across a wide range of temperatures.

    而且如我們所知,鈉的供應非常充足。也有可能採用更簡化的系統設計。因此我們認為它非常適合用於電網儲能。此外,它在很寬的溫度範圍內也有強勁的性能表現。

  • And there is potentially lower cooling and maintenance requirements. So again, we think this technology is very promising. We're working with Peak because we think it's going to be the next generation. And when you say a year to 18 months, it's a little further out, but there's real work going on with development milestones and a plan to how we would commercialize, that we'll share more about over time.

    而且在冷卻與維護方面的需求可能更低。所以再次強調,我們認為這項技術非常有前景。我們正與 Peak 合作,因為我們認為它將成為下一代技術。至於你提到的一年到 18 個月,時間點確實稍微更往後一些,但目前確實有實質工作在推進,包括開發里程碑以及我們將如何商業化的計畫;我們也會隨時間推移分享更多細節。

  • But we think Peak is a real opportunity with this technology, and we're going to continue to develop it because, again, there's going to be more and more need. And ultimately, if the technology is promising, it could even find its way into vehicles, which we've got rights to that.

    但我們認為 Peak 透過這項技術是一個真正的機會,我們也會持續開發,因為同樣地,需求只會愈來愈多。而且最終,如果這項技術確實有前景,甚至可能導入車輛應用,而我們也擁有相關權利。

  • So I don't know, Paul, if you have anything you want to add?

    所以我不確定,Paul,你是否還有什麼想補充的?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And Andrew, I think this has been obviously a topic across the industry. We've tried to approach it from, first of all, capital discipline as we look at the restructuring that we've done and so on, the idea and we turned down opportunities to put billions of dollars of capital into plants to tool up what is already a highly competitive business based on potential extension of government credits and tax credits, et cetera.

    是的。Andrew,我想這顯然一直是整個產業的議題。我們嘗試從幾個面向來處理:首先是資本紀律——在我們已完成的重組等背景下,我們的想法是,我們也曾拒絕一些機會,因為那些機會需要投入數十億美元資本去建廠、導入產線工具,而那其實是在一個已高度競爭的業務中,且其商業邏輯還建立在政府補助與稅收抵免可能延長等因素之上。

  • I think really what we're looking at here is how do we partner with technology that has synergies to the overall business do it in a capital-efficient manner. And what we found in Peak was the promise of a lot of technology, the ability to scale and something that we think is going to be cost effective, while at the same time, we don't have to invest billions of dollars of capital to do it.

    我認為我們真正關注的是:如何與能與整體業務產生協同效應的技術合作,並以資本效率高的方式來做。而我們在 Peak 身上看到的是:大量技術的潛力、可擴展的能力,以及我們認為具成本效益的方案;同時,我們不必為此投入數十億美元的資本。

  • So we have a lot of optionality to participate as we choose. So we're optimistic. And in conversations with them, we think that there's a really good growth platform. But we're going to be cautious rather than going all in into a hypercompetitive business.

    因此我們有很大的選擇權,可以依我們的意願參與。所以我們是樂觀的。而且在與他們的對話中,我們認為這是一個非常好的成長平台。但我們會保持謹慎,而不是在一個超高度競爭的業務中全力押注。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And I'll just add from a timing perspective, we believe that we'll be building production validate itself on campus in our battery cell development center in the '27, '28 time frame, and we hope to be in production before the end of the decade, which is net far away with all new technology.

    另外就時程而言,我們相信在 2027、2028 年的時間框架內,我們會在校園內、也就是我們的電池電芯開發中心,建立可用於驗證的生產線;並希望在本十年結束前進入量產——對於任何全新技術而言,這其實並不算太久。

  • Andrew Percoco - Analyst

    Andrew Percoco - Analyst

  • Appreciate that. That's great context. And then maybe my second question, just as it relates to, I know there's obviously a lot of attention on affordability. It doesn't seem to have really had an impact yet on demand for trucks. I know sometimes it takes a while for that to flow through.

    感謝說明。這些背景資訊很有幫助。那我第二個問題可能是關於——我知道市場對可負擔性顯然非常關注。但看起來目前對卡車需求還沒有真正造成影響。我知道有時候需要一段時間才會反映出來。

  • I'm just curious, as you think about your guidance for the remainder of the year and as obviously, you made some comments about 2027, are you anticipating mix shift more towards crossovers, understanding they're more profitable today than they maybe were two years ago. But just curious if you've made any underlying assumptions for that mix shift into maybe smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles in the back half of the year and into 2027?

    我想請教的是,當你們思考今年剩餘期間的指引,以及你們也提到 2027 年的一些看法時,你們是否預期產品組合會更偏向跨界車(crossover)?考量到它們目前的獲利能力比兩年前可能更好。但我想了解的是,你們是否在今年下半年以及到 2027 年,對於產品組合可能轉向更小、更省油車款這件事,有做任何底層假設?

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Andrew, that's been predicted for several months now, and it's just not happening. We're seeing really strong full-size truck demand and close utility for that matter. We're building everything that we can sell. And, but to your point, we're going to be guided by the consumer. And I mentioned how we've improved the profitability of our SUVs across the board. So I think we're extremely well positioned from an affordability perspective to meet the customer where we are, but we're just not seeing it.

    Andrew,這種情況已經被預測好幾個月了,但就是沒有發生。我們看到全尺寸卡車需求非常強勁,近似的 Utility 車型也是如此。我們正在生產所有我們能賣得掉的車。不過如你所說,我們會以消費者為導向。我也提到過,我們已全面提升 SUV 的獲利能力。所以我認為,從可負擔性的角度來看,我們的定位非常好,能在客戶所在的價位帶與需求上滿足他們,但我們就是沒有看到那種轉向。

  • I think if something would have to happen for a long period of time before people would make potentially a different decision. So we're seeing strength even though it's been predicted now for probably about three or four months.

    我認為必須有某些事情持續發生很長一段時間,人們才可能做出不同的決策。所以即便這種轉向已被預測大概三、四個月了,我們仍然看到需求強勁。

  • Andrew Percoco - Analyst

    Andrew Percoco - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you so much.

    很好。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

    Itay Michaeli,TD Cowen。

  • Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

    Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

  • Great, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Just a first question just on the updated GM&A pricing environment for the year. Great to see the strength in the first half of the year. Do you think the second half implied pricing does kind of moderate off the first half? I'm curious whether that's kind of reflecting anything you're seeing thus far, like in July or just kind of maybe more of a standard assumption and perhaps a bit of conservatism.

    很好,謝謝。各位早安。第一個問題是關於今年更新後的 GM&A 定價環境。很高興看到上半年表現強勁。你們認為下半年隱含的定價是否會較上半年有所降溫?我想了解這是否反映了你們目前為止(例如 7 月)所看到的情況,或只是較為標準的假設、並帶有一些保守性。

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey, Itay. Thanks for the question. I would classify it more as just kind of lapping the prior year pricing actions from where we were. So as we said, going into the year, model year '26, we took some pricing actions, that's got the tailwind. Those have held up strong. The incentive environment has remained fairly consistent. We're not projecting any change to that. It's just the calendar.

    嗨,Itay。謝謝你的問題。我會把它歸因於:我們只是進入了與去年定價動作相比的「基期效應」(lapping)。所以如我們所說,年初時針對 2026 年式(model year '26)我們採取了一些定價措施,這帶來了順風。這些措施維持得很穩健。促銷/獎勵(incentive)環境也大致保持一致。我們並未預期那方面會有任何變化。只是日曆因素而已。

  • Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

    Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then the second question, kind of going back to the new trucks into next year, and I appreciate the update on that. You've been asked for on pricing, but I'm curious whether there's also some potential variable cost tailwinds you could enjoy just given the easing emissions standards that maybe allows you to reinvest that back into new content to drive pricing and maybe share at higher trends or even kind of flow that to the bottom line? And maybe if you can comment maybe overall on kind of how to think about the VP per unit, roughly of the new trucks versus the outgoing trucks. Thank you.

    了解。這很有幫助。第二個問題回到明年推出的新卡車,我也感謝你們的更新。大家問過你們定價,但我想了解,是否也可能有一些可變成本的順風,因為排放標準的放寬可能讓你們能把這部分再投資到新配置/新內容上,以推動定價並可能提升市占趨勢,或是直接反映到獲利(bottom line)?另外也請你們整體評論一下:新卡車相較於現行車款,每台的 VP(單位可變利潤)大致該如何看待?謝謝。

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Itay. So when you look at the sort of current trucks that are being produced, they're already receiving that benefit. So there's not really anything incremental. We're actually driving even more efficiency in the Gen 6 as well. So on a variable profit, it will normalize, and we expect better if, particularly if we're able to take additional pricing.

    是的,Itay。當你看目前正在生產的卡車,它們其實已經在享受那項效益。所以並沒有什麼額外增量。我們也正在第六代(Gen 6)上推動更高的效率。因此在可變利潤方面,會回歸常態;而且我們預期會更好,特別是如果我們能再取得額外的定價。

  • But it's going to take a little bit time because, as you know, with the ramp-up in the transition, there's some costs that we incur over that time period. So that's why we've classified this as potentially more of a '27 and beyond tailwind than anything material this year even though the trucks will start to hit the showrooms at the end of the year.

    但這需要一點時間,因為如你所知,在轉換期間的爬坡(ramp-up)過程中,我們會在那段時間承擔一些成本。因此我們才把這歸類為可能更偏向 2027 年及以後的順風,而不是今年就會有任何實質影響——即使這些卡車會在年底開始進入展間。

  • Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

    Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Great. Thank you.

    非常有幫助。很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Ward, Citigroup.

    Mike Ward,花旗集團。

  • Michael Ward - Analyst

    Michael Ward - Analyst

  • Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. I want to make sure I'm thinking about this the right way. So if you're talking about digital services, defense, insurance and even putting energy out there, as we look out over the next five years, if I'm doing the math right, the financial contribution is going to probably be at or above that you're currently getting from GM Financial. Is that the right ballpark?

    非常感謝。各位早安。我想確認我對這件事的思考方式是正確的。所以如果你們談的是數位服務、國防、保險,甚至把能源也納入考量,當我們展望未來五年,如果我算得沒錯,財務貢獻很可能會達到或高於你們目前從 GM Financial 所獲得的水準。這樣的量級大致正確嗎?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean it's certainly not going to give anything specific going forward, but we see the growth trajectory that we're on and where we are. And that's why it's so important that we're just closing the deferred revenue piece because it does come in over a three- to eight-year time period depending on where the subscriptions are and that revenue base is already over $3 billion. And as we've said, software like margins. We've historically disclosed margins on OnStar around 70%. So we're seeing really good traction there. And we expect that to continue to grow.

    是的。我的意思是,我們當然不會對未來提供任何具體數字,但我們看到目前所處的成長軌跡以及我們的位置。這也是為什麼把遞延收入這一塊結清如此重要,因為它會在三到八年的期間內入帳,取決於訂閱的類型,而那個收入基礎已經超過 30 億美元。而且如我們所說,軟體具備類似軟體的毛利率。我們過去曾揭露 OnStar 的毛利率大約在 70% 左右。所以我們在那裡看到非常好的進展。我們也預期它會持續成長。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Mike, I'm really glad you asked the question because what we're trying to convey is we do think we have tremendous levers -- multiple levers of growth, whether it's our software business, whether it's GM Defense, GM Insurance, they're small now. But when you ask a question over a five-year horizon, we definitely think there's a lot of opportunity at GM to grow, improve margins and become less cyclical. So thanks for that question.

    是的。Mike,我很高興你問了這個問題,因為我們想傳達的是,我們確實認為我們有非常多的槓桿——多個成長槓桿,不論是我們的軟體業務、GM Defense、GM Insurance,它們現在都還小。但當你以五年的時間跨度來提問時,我們絕對認為 GM 有很多機會成長、提升利潤率並降低景氣循環性。所以謝謝你的問題。

  • Michael Ward - Analyst

    Michael Ward - Analyst

  • And especially on the margin and the cash side on a [relo] based auto, just so the revenue is not -- it's hard to make a dent in it, but it's bigger. And I think, Paul, you kind of alluded to your software-enabled vehicles. And I think a number I've heard is 30 million to 40 million vehicles that have basically OnStar within them. First of all, is that the right number?

    而且特別是在利潤率與現金面,對於一個以 [relo] 為基礎的汽車業務來說,收入不是——很難讓它出現明顯變化,但它的規模更大。而且我想,Paul,你也有點提到你們的軟體賦能車輛。我聽到的一個數字是大約有 3,000 萬到 4,000 萬輛車基本上內建 OnStar。首先,這個數字正確嗎?

  • And then second of all, how hard is it -- if you have a compelling product, how hard is it to turn them on, if they wanted to join the subscription to -- whatever to get global WiFi service. How hard is it to do that?

    第二,如果你們有一個很有吸引力的產品——要把它們啟用有多難?如果他們想加入訂閱——不管是什麼——以取得全球 WiFi 服務。要做到這件事有多難?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • You want to take that?

    你要回答這題嗎?

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • It depends on the generation because there are several generations of technology. But I think from a current point, it's about 22 million that just got, for instance, an OTA update for Gemini. So there is an opportunity of -- in the multiple millions for us to continue to update depending on what the feature is and what we're doing, what the hardware is in the vehicle, but it's pretty substantial to your point.

    這取決於世代,因為有好幾代的技術。但我想以目前來看,大約有 2,200 萬輛剛剛例如透過 OTA 更新取得 Gemini。所以我們有機會——以數百萬輛為單位——持續進行更新,取決於功能是什麼、我們在做什麼、車上的硬體是什麼,但如你所說,規模相當可觀。

  • Michael Ward - Analyst

    Michael Ward - Analyst

  • And do I understand it right, you said the new trucks would have Super Cruise?

    那我理解得對嗎,你說新款卡車會配備 Super Cruise?

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • More models. Virtually all the models have it. I think there's just an exception of a work truck, et cetera. So we're really, we believe in the technology, we're seeing the customer interest. And remember, there was a conversation earlier about the overall cost, but usually, that's in a trim package.

    更多車型。幾乎所有車型都有。我想只有像工作用卡車之類的例外。所以我們真的——我們相信這項技術,也看到客戶的興趣。而且記得,先前有談到整體成本,但通常那是在某個配備等級套件裡。

  • And when people buy that, they're getting multiple years of service depending on which feature. So we think it's actually providing less value to the customers. The attach rate is good afterward. And yes, it will be on more of a full-size light-duty pickups as we launch.

    而當人們購買那個套件時,依不同功能,他們會獲得多年的服務。所以我們認為這其實為客戶提供了更少的價值。之後的附掛率(attach rate)也不錯。而且是的,隨著我們推出,它會搭載在更多全尺寸輕型皮卡上。

  • Michael Ward - Analyst

    Michael Ward - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Really appreciate it.

    非常感謝。真的很感激。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

    Emmanuel Rosner,Wolfe Research。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thank you so much. I was hoping to follow up on the earnings opportunity for the new truck. I understand you flagged the strengthened pricing power. Is there also a volume opportunity as you move into 2027, reflecting the fact that you have fairly lean inventories now. There's, you're going to be lapping some of the changeover impact and downtime that you flagged in the fourth quarter, some limited also in the first quarter. So just how do you think about volume in the second half and into next year?

    很好。非常感謝。我想追問一下新款卡車的獲利機會。我理解你們提到定價能力增強。那在你們邁向 2027 年時,是否也有量的機會,反映出你們目前庫存相當精實。此外,你們在第四季提到的一些改款切換影響與停工時間,之後會被消化掉,第一季也有一些有限影響。所以你們如何看待下半年以及明年的銷量?

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So Emmanuel, the way you need to think about it is we start the launch at the very end of this year, and it goes into next year. But we also have three engine plants launching as well with new engines that support this truck and provide a lot of benefit from a customer perspective. We're going to sell this year. We're going to be at record levels from a sale perspective, when we're saying we're going to carry that over to next year.

    所以 Emmanuel,你需要這樣思考:我們會在今年年底非常接近的時間點開始上市,並延續到明年。但我們也有三座引擎工廠同時導入新引擎,來支援這款卡車,並從客戶角度帶來很多好處。我們今年的銷售——從銷售角度來看,我們會處在創紀錄的水準,而我們說會把這個水準延續到明年。

  • The real volume opportunity comes in the very late '27 or more in the '28 time frame, when all the engine plants are launched and then we have oriented capability as well. So that's where the growth from a volume perspective, it's really in '28.

    真正的量的機會會出現在 2027 年非常後期,或更偏向 2028 年的時間點,當所有引擎工廠都完成導入,且我們也具備相應的產能配置能力。所以從量的角度來看,成長主要是在 2028 年。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's very clear. And then I appreciate all the good color around initial thoughts on 2027. Now a lot of the key drivers that you highlighted, actually, all of them are tailwinds, all positive. Would you be willing also to speak about more broadly sort of like puts and takes? Are there any headwinds we should consider such as commodities or further DRAM inflation just for a more holistic view of the 2027 picture?

    好的。這非常清楚。另外也感謝你們對 2027 年初步想法提供了很多有用的資訊。現在你們強調的許多關鍵驅動因素,實際上全部都是順風、都是正面因素。你們是否也願意更廣泛地談談類似利弊權衡(puts and takes)?是否有任何我們應該考量的逆風,例如大宗商品或 DRAM 進一步通膨,以便更全面地看待 2027 年的情況?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, I mean, we haven't obviously quantified any of that, but we're going to see some inflationary pressures in the business. I mean I think that's just to be expected across the board. So what we're really trying to do now is essentially say that many of the things that are allowing us to expand our margins in '26, our multi-year trajectories, whether it be warranty, EV profitability, digital revenue growth. And it's not just about '27, as we've said in a few public presentations across the board. So that momentum is there.

    是的,我的意思是,我們顯然還沒有量化任何這些,但我們會在業務中看到一些通膨壓力。我想這是全面性、可預期的。所以我們現在真正想做的,基本上是說:許多讓我們在 2026 年擴大利潤率的因素,是我們的多年期軌跡的一部分,不論是保固、電動車獲利能力、數位營收成長。而且這不只是關於 2027 年,正如我們在幾場公開簡報中所說的。所以這股動能是存在的。

  • I think the question is how much of that incremental tailwind can we capture based on what's out there in the macro. But what we're trying to really project is we're continuing to drive this execution across the board. We're preparing in advance for where the headwinds have and we still believe that we've got a good trajectory of continued margin expansion and continued EBIT growth and share buybacks into the future.

    我想問題在於,基於宏觀環境的狀況,我們能捕捉到多少額外的順風增量。但我們真正想要投射的是:我們會持續推動全方位的執行。我們也會提前為逆風可能出現的地方做好準備,而我們仍然相信,未來我們有良好的軌跡,能持續擴大利潤率、持續成長 EBIT,並持續進行庫藏股回購。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you.

    了解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Narayan, RBC.

    Tom Narayan,RBC。

  • Tom Narayan - Analyst

    Tom Narayan - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking the questions. So I appreciate the commentary on the US onshoring. Just curious how that would do with the current proposal that we're seeing out there on the 50% US contenting as it relates to either US FCA or a bilateral deal that may happen. Is the onshoring that you guys have already underway enough to comply with something like that with the 50% US contenting? Or would that require some additional onshoring beyond what you're contemplating?

    謝謝讓我提問。我很感謝你們對美國在岸化(onshoring)的評論。我只是好奇,針對我們目前看到的提案——要求50%美國成分含量(US contenting),不論是與美國FCA相關,或是可能發生的雙邊協議——你們認為會如何影響?你們已經在進行的在岸化,是否足以符合像這種50%美國成分含量的要求?還是說,這會需要超出你們目前規劃的額外在岸化?

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we've already done quite a bit of work. I would say that's something we started after the semiconductor shortage in COVID, recognizing that the global supply chain needs to be much more resilient. So I would say General Motors has done a fair amount of this. And we're also working with our buyers and have been now that we're in the tariff environment. I think when you look at the different rates, there's productive conversations going on between the US and Mexico.

    嗯,我們其實已經做了相當多的工作。我會說,這是我們在COVID期間的半導體短缺之後就開始著手的,因為我們意識到全球供應鏈需要更具韌性。所以我會說通用汽車在這方面已經做了不少。而且在目前的關稅環境下,我們也正與採購團隊合作,並且一直在做。我認為,當你看不同的稅率時,美國與墨西哥之間正在進行富有成效的對話。

  • I'm hoping for we can get through some of the back and forth that's happening between the U.S. and Canada, but I do feel that there's a commitment both from the administration and from a progressional perspective that we want to make sure we have a strong manufacturing base, which is making sure that the US automakers are going to be able to compete and win when we look at what the tariff rates are for Europeans, the Japanese and the Koreans.

    我希望我們能度過美國與加拿大之間目前來回拉鋸的情況,但我確實感覺到,無論是政府部門或從國會的角度,都有一種承諾:我們要確保擁有強大的製造業基礎。這也意味著要確保美國汽車製造商在面對歐洲、日本與韓國的關稅稅率時,仍能競爭並勝出。

  • So I think there's a good understanding of that. We're providing a lot of input to make sure that they understand the consequences. And we need a strong North America. As Paul has said earlier in the day, we need all the countries to work together, and we need an overall rate that allows us to be competitive, so we can win and continue to invest in US manufacturing.

    所以我認為大家對此有很好的理解。我們也提供了很多意見,確保他們了解其後果。而且我們需要一個強健的北美。正如Paul今天稍早所說,我們需要所有國家一起合作,也需要一個能讓我們具備競爭力的整體稅率,這樣我們才能勝出並持續投資於美國製造。

  • Tom Narayan - Analyst

    Tom Narayan - Analyst

  • Okay. And then a follow-up to the commentary on Super Cruise, it seems like pricing is coming in, especially in North America. We're seeing that from other automakers with autonomy offerings, Level 2 plus plus. But then you look at China, it's a completely different story. Just curious how you think about long-term autonomy pricing.

    好的。接著針對你們對Super Cruise的評論再追問一下,看起來定價正在下滑,尤其是在北美。我們也從其他車廠的自動化(autonomy)產品、Level 2++的方案上看到這點。但再看中國,情況完全不同。我想請教你們如何看待長期的自動化定價。

  • It seems to be deflationary in China. Maybe it's a completely different consumer dynamic in the US, but I know this is a very high-level question. But just curious how you think about how autonomy pricing for private mobility could develop? Thanks.

    在中國看起來是通縮性的。也許美國的消費者動態完全不同,我知道這是個很高層次的問題。但我想了解,你們如何看待私人移動(private mobility)的自動化定價未來可能如何發展?謝謝。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think, first of all, you have to look at China, there's intense pricing competition that frankly is in China in-country solutions for the vehicles. We have momentum in our vehicles. I think we're in a leadership position or among the leaders with the technology that we're providing, and we're going to continue to do that.

    嗯,我認為首先你得看中國,那裡的價格競爭非常激烈,坦白說,很多是在中國本土、針對車輛的解決方案。我們的車款正展現動能。我認為就我們提供的技術而言,我們處於領先地位或至少是領導者之一,而且我們會持續這麼做。

  • But I think you've got to look at what's really sustainable with the overall what's happening in that market right now is there's so many competitors. There's a lot of sorting that's going to happen -- need to happen for long-term viability.

    但我認為你也必須看,在那個市場目前整體發生的事情之下,什麼才是真正可持續的。競爭者太多了,接下來會——也必須——出現一波洗牌,才能有長期的可行性。

  • I think from this country, we believe that autonomy is going to be extremely important on our vehicles. And I do believe there'll be pricing power, and we'll also continue to work to get the cost down. Super Cruise is a great example of where that product started versus what it is now and why we're able to offer it and continuing to offer more and more vehicles.

    我認為就美國而言,我們相信自動化對我們的車輛將會極其重要。我也確實相信會有定價能力(pricing power),同時我們也會持續努力降低成本。Super Cruise就是一個很好的例子,從產品一開始到現在的樣貌,以及為什麼我們能夠提供它,並且持續在更多、更多車款上提供。

  • Paul talked about the fact as we continue to drive on cost efficiencies and the technology just enables us to provide it to more consumers. But I do think customers recognize the value of it, and there's -- they are willing to pay.

    Paul談到,隨著我們持續推動成本效率,技術也讓我們能把它提供給更多消費者。但我確實認為客戶認可它的價值,而且——他們願意付費。

  • And I think before this becomes something that is just standard on every vehicle, there's a long time between now and then because we saw a long way to go from full autonomy where it can go anywhere anytime.

    而且我認為,在它成為每一台車的標準配備之前,從現在到那時還有很長一段時間,因為距離能在任何時間、任何地點行駛的完全自動化,我們還有很長的路要走。

  • A lot of what we're seeing now, and there's been great progress made, although it's taken longer, is you still are in certain regions, geo-fenced, et cetera. So I think there's a, this is an incredibly important technology that we have on our vehicles. I think there's an opportunity to drive value for a long period of time, and we'll see how the market plays out.

    我們現在看到的很多情況——而且已經取得很大進展,雖然花的時間更久——仍然是在特定區域、地理圍欄(geo-fenced)等等。所以我認為,這是一項對我們車輛極其重要的技術。我認為它有機會在很長一段時間內創造價值,而市場最終如何發展,我們就拭目以待。

  • Tom Narayan - Analyst

    Tom Narayan - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much.

    很好。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

    Mark Delaney,高盛。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking the questions. Is there more color you can share on the memory supply agreement and what that means for cost and availability going forward, including to what extent it gives GM a clear view on what memory costs are going to be in 2027.

    是的,早安。非常感謝讓我提問。關於記憶體供應協議,你們能否分享更多細節,以及這對未來成本與供應可得性意味著什麼?也包括它在多大程度上能讓GM清楚掌握2027年的記憶體成本會是多少。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we're very pleased that we have a strong relationship with Micron and we also have one with Samsung as well. And these are strategic engagements and long-term engagements that go back to 2022. As I mentioned, as we went through the semiconductor shortage and the chip shortage, we really work to make sure that we've got direct relationships and stable supply. And I think the relationships we've built are providing value to us for sure as we move forward.

    嗯,我們很高興與Micron有很強的合作關係,我們也與Samsung有合作。這些都是策略性、長期的合作,最早可追溯到2022年。如我提到的,當我們經歷半導體短缺與晶片短缺時,我們確實努力確保我們擁有直接的合作關係與穩定的供應。我認為我們建立的這些關係,確實在我們往前走的過程中為我們帶來價值。

  • We haven't disclosed specific pricing, but I think we've got a good relationship with both suppliers, and we're going to continue to work with them and align on next-generation memory technology, so we can have jointly developed technology road map that I think will enable us to not only enable future product innovation but also performance improvement as we go forward. So I think we've got, I think we've got the right line of sight with the strategic partnerships we have and we're going to continue to build on this.

    我們尚未揭露具體定價,但我認為我們與兩家供應商都維持良好關係;我們也會持續與他們合作,並在下一代記憶體技術上對齊,讓我們能共同制定技術路線圖。我認為這不僅能促成未來產品創新,也能在往後持續提升效能。所以我認為,透過我們的策略夥伴關係,我們已經有了正確的能見度(line of sight),而且會持續在此基礎上深化。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thanks. My other question was on fleet. It's been very strong, as you mentioned in the prepared remarks. Why does GM think the fleet business has been so strong? And what's your view on the ability to sustain that?.

    這很有幫助。謝謝。我另一個問題是關於車隊(fleet)。如你們在事先準備的發言中提到的,表現非常強勁。GM認為車隊業務為何會如此強勁?你們對其可持續性的看法是什麼?。

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I think the team has done a really good job here, Mark. And it really goes to the quality, portfolio and the services that we can offer across the board. So when we look at the relations that we have with our fleet customers, and that's across the board, whether it's rental or it's government or it's commercial. I think those go a long way, and they really respond to the products that we have. So I think the difference is fleets historically, I think, was an outlet for excess capacity. That's really changed today.

    我認為團隊在這方面做得非常好,Mark。這主要歸功於我們能全面提供的品質、產品組合與服務。所以當我們看與車隊客戶的關係時,那是全方位的,不論是租賃、政府或商用。我認為這些關係非常關鍵,而客戶也確實對我們的產品有回應。所以我認為差異在於,過去車隊在歷史上,我想,是用來消化多餘產能的出口。但今天這點已經真正改變了。

  • We very consciously allocate between retail and fleet and where we can, but we don't sacrifice value when we're doing that. So we're looking to balance the enterprise as a whole rather than historically where we would just offer pretty significant discounts in the fleet side. That's not the way it's working anymore. And it really depends on those relationships.

    我們非常有意識地在零售與車隊之間進行配置,並在可行之處調整,但我們不會因此犧牲價值。因此,我們著眼於平衡整體企業,而不是像過去那樣在車隊端提供相當大幅度的折扣。現在已經不是那樣運作了。而這確實取決於那些合作關係。

  • Rajat Gupta - Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rajat Gupta, JPMorgan.

    Rajat Gupta,摩根大通。

  • Rajat Gupta - Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for the question. Just wanted to get an update on autonomy and the 2028 (inaudible) launch. Any update on the progress there? Maybe any change in how you're approaching it on the tech side, architecture side would be helpful and have a quick follow.

    很好,謝謝提問。我想了解一下自動駕駛以及 2028 年(聽不清)上市/推出的最新進展。那邊的進度有任何更新嗎?也許在技術面、架構面你們的做法是否有任何改變,會很有幫助;另外我還有一個簡短的追問。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, there's no change. I would say the program overall is on track. It's got an aggressive execution plan, but they're meeting their largely meeting their milestones. I'm very excited about it. I think I mentioned in the last quarter earnings, I had a chance to be in the vehicle and they're making great progress.

    沒有,沒有任何改變。我會說整體計畫按進度推進。執行計畫很積極,但他們基本上都在達成各項里程碑。我對此非常興奮。我想我在上一季財報時提過,我有機會坐進車裡體驗,他們進展非常好。

  • So excited about what's coming, and we're going to continue to move forward aggressively to make sure we deliver a system that not only provides the autonomy, but also lives up to the standard of safety that General Motors has held ourselves to across our vehicle portfolio and also when you look at what we've been able to do with Super Cruise.

    所以我對接下來的成果很期待,我們也會持續積極推進,確保交付的系統不僅能提供自動駕駛能力,也能符合通用汽車在整個車輛產品組合上一貫堅持的安全標準;同時也要符合我們在 Super Cruise 上所達成的水準。

  • Rajat Gupta - Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Analyst

  • Understood. That's helpful. And just to follow up on Emmanuel's question around the bridge, the $1 billion to $1.5 billion onshoring investments this year, should we think about that as like in the base? Are there any onetime items from that, that many do not repeat next year that we should consider? And maybe in terms of additional investments, are there anything, are there any investments we should consider with respect to autonomy bridge, R&D capacity, et cetera. Thanks.

    了解。這很有幫助。另外追問 Emmanuel 關於「橋接」的問題:今年 10 億到 15 億美元的在岸化投資,我們是否應該把它視為基準成本的一部分?其中是否有任何一次性項目,明年可能不會重複、需要我們納入考量?以及就額外投資而言,針對自動駕駛的橋接、研發產能等,是否有任何投資是我們明年應該預期的?謝謝。

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So I would say that the bulk of the setup costs are recurring and ongoing call. So we're hiring and training individuals. The biggest drag is probably as we hire them before we get production in place. So that's where you're seeing a little bit of the margin friction.

    是的。我會說,大部分的建置成本是經常性、且會持續發生的。我們正在招募並訓練人員。最大的拖累可能是:在產能到位之前就先把人招進來。所以你會看到一些毛利率上的摩擦。

  • As far as the cost line goes, you'll have a lapping of the additional heads in 2027, but that will be offset by actual production as we start to normalize and ramp up where we are. So overall, I would say it's a little bit balanced into 2027. But as we continue to see how we ramp up production, that will affect the ultimate magnitude.

    就成本線來看,到了 2027 年會出現新增人力的「同比基期效應」(lapping),但隨著我們開始正常化並逐步拉升產量,這會被實際生產所抵銷。因此整體而言,我會說延伸到 2027 年大致是相對平衡的。但隨著我們持續觀察產量爬坡的情況,最終的影響幅度也會隨之變動。

  • Rajat Gupta - Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Analyst

  • Understood. And just to clarify, there's no additional expense or investment related to autonomy or R&D that we should anticipate next year, correct?

    了解。再確認一下:明年我們不需要預期任何與自動駕駛或研發相關的額外費用或投資,對嗎?

  • Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Paul Jacobson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No. I think we've seen that inflation. It will baseline. Again, the -- we've got some of that second half loaded. So there will be a lapping effect in '27, but we're not expecting significant additional investment.

    對。我認為我們已經看到那波通膨影響。它會成為基準。另外——我們有一部分是集中在下半年發生。所以在 2027 年會有同比基期效應,但我們不預期會有顯著的額外投資。

  • Rajat Gupta - Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. I'd like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing comments.

    謝謝。我想把電話會議交給 Mary Barra 作結語。

  • Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mary Barra - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks, everybody. I really appreciate all the questions today. And I know we've covered a lot of ground. So if we just step back, we want to leave you with the fact that our vehicle portfolio continues to get stronger. I'm very excited about the full site truck launch that we have coming.

    好的,謝謝各位。我非常感謝大家今天的所有提問。我知道我們涵蓋了很多面向。所以如果我們退一步總結一下,我們想讓各位帶走的重點是:我們的車輛產品組合持續變得更強。我也非常期待我們即將推出的全尺寸卡車上市。

  • We also are efficiently on showing significant manufacturing, which will reduce our tariff expense. Our software and services ecosystem is expanding, and that's not just for one year, but that's going to continue to expand over the next few years and beyond.

    我們也正有效率地推進在岸化的顯著製造布局,這將降低我們的關稅費用。我們的軟體與服務生態系正在擴張,而且不只是今年,而是會在未來幾年乃至更長時間持續擴大。

  • And we have growth businesses like GM Defense and GM Insurance that are creating additional avenues for value creation and are not in the traditional cyclicality of the auto industries -- auto industry. So all of this supports our commitment to ongoing margin expansion.

    此外,我們還有像 GM Defense 與 GM Insurance 這樣的成長型業務,正在創造更多價值創造的途徑,且不受汽車產業——汽車產業——傳統景氣循環的影響。因此,這一切都支持我們對持續擴大利潤率的承諾。

  • I'm personally very excited about the growth opportunities that we have in the margin expansion opportunities that we have. We know there is more work ahead, but I believe we're building from a position of strength with a proven track record of execution. So with all of our momentum, we're confident in '26 and have said it will be stronger than '25. And more importantly, the '27 and the years beyond will be stronger still. So thank you very much for your time, and have a great day.

    我個人對我們在利潤率擴張方面所擁有的成長機會感到非常振奮。我們知道前方還有更多工作要做,但我相信我們是在一個強勢的基礎上持續建構,並且擁有經過驗證的執行紀錄。因此,憑藉我們目前的動能,我們對 2026 年充滿信心,並且也已表示它會比 2025 年更強。更重要的是,2027 年以及往後的年度將會更強。非常感謝各位的時間,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for joining.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。