通用汽車 (GM) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the General Motors Company Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加通用汽車 2017 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Tuesday, February 6, 2018.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議的錄音時間為 2018 年 2 月 6 日星期二。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dhivya Suryadevara, Vice President of Corporate Finance.

現在我想將會議交給企業財務副總裁 Dhivya Suryadevara。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Thanks, operator.

謝謝，接線生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the fourth quarter of 2017.

早安，感謝您接受我們的採訪，我們將回顧通用汽車 2017 年第四季的財務表現。

Our press release was issued this morning, and the conference call materials are available on the GM Investor Relations website.

我們的新聞稿已於今天上午發布，電話會議資料可在通用汽車投資者關係網站上取得。

We are also broadcasting this call via webcast.

我們也透過網路廣播來廣播這次電話會議。

Included in the chart set materials published this morning, we have the key takeaways from each chart in the notes pages in order to provide color on the results.

在今天早上發布的圖表集材料中，我們在註釋頁面中提供了每個圖表的關鍵要點，以便為結果提供顏色。

This morning, Mary Barra, GM's Chairman and CEO, will provide some brief opening remarks; followed by Chuck Stevens, GM's Executive VP and CFO.

今天上午，通用汽車董事長兼執行長瑪麗·博拉 (Mary Barra) 將發表一些簡短的開場白；其次是通用汽車執行副總裁兼財務長查克史蒂文斯(Chuck Stevens)。

We will then open the line for questions from the analyst community.

然後我們將開通分析師社群提問熱線。

Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of the chart set.

在我們開始之前，我想請您注意圖表組第一頁上的前瞻性陳述。

The content of our call will be governed by this language.

我們通話的內容將受此語言管轄。

In the room today, we also have Tom Timko, Vice President, Global Business Solutions, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; and Rick Westenberg, Vice President and Treasurer, to assist in answering your questions.

今天在場的還有全球業務解決方案副總裁、財務長兼首席會計長 Tom Timko；副總裁兼財務主管 Rick Westenberg 協助回答您的問題。

I will now turn the call over to Mary Barra.

我現在將把電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉。

Thanks, Dhivya.

謝謝，迪維亞。

Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining.

大家早安，感謝您的加入。

2017 was a transformative year for GM.

2017 年對通用汽車來說是改變的一年。

The very strong results we reported this morning demonstrate the earnings power of our core business and extend our track record of meeting our commitments.

我們今天早上公佈的非常強勁的業績證明了我們核心業務的盈利能力，並擴大了我們兌現承諾的記錄。

Let's look at the full year results.

讓我們來看看全年業績。

Our EBIT-adjusted of $12.8 billion repeats 2016's record performance.

我們的調整後息稅前利潤為 128 億美元，延續了 2016 年的創紀錄業績。

We had a record EBIT-adjusted margin of 8.8% and record EPS diluted adjusted of $6.62.

我們的息稅前利潤調整後利潤率達到創紀錄的 8.8%，攤薄調整後每股收益創紀錄的 6.62 美元。

We returned $6.7 billion in cash to shareholders, and our return on invested capital adjusted was 28% on a trailing 4-quarter basis.

我們向股東返還了 67 億美元現金，過去 4 季調整後的投資資本回報率為 28%。

GM begins this year as a stronger, more resilient company because of the decisive actions we have taken in the past few years to, first, reshape our business; second, to focus on higher-return opportunities; and third, invest in technologies that enable our vision of a future with 0 crashes, 0 emissions and 0 congestion.

通用汽車今年開始成為一家更強大、更有彈性的公司，因為我們在過去幾年中採取了果斷行動，首先是重塑我們的業務；第二，專注於更高回報的機會；第三，投資於技術，使我們能夠實現零碰撞、零排放和零擁塞的未來願景。

We plan to continue our momentum in 2018 and position the company to accelerate further in 2019.

我們計劃在 2018 年繼續保持這一勢頭，並讓公司在 2019 年進一步加速發展。

This year, we expect continued strength in North America, where in 2017, we achieved a record EBIT-adjusted margin.

今年，我們預計北美市場將繼續保持強勁勢頭，2017 年，我們實現了創紀錄的息稅前調整利潤率。

We expect improved results in GM International, where we saw strong equity income in China and returned to profitability in South America.

我們預計通用汽車國際公司的業績將會改善，我們在中國看到強勁的股本收入，並在南美洲恢復獲利。

We expect momentum from a full year sales of new crossovers and, later, our all new full-size pickups.

我們預計新款跨界車以及隨後推出的全新全尺寸皮卡的全年銷售將帶來動力。

And we expect improved performance by adjacent businesses, including GM Financial, and of course, we'll maintain a very strong cost efficiency focus across the entire business.

我們預計包括通用汽車金融在內的相鄰業務部門的表現將得到改善，當然，我們將在整個業務範圍內保持非常強烈的成本效率關注。

Chuck will share additional details in a few minutes.

查克將在幾分鐘內分享更多細節。

In the core business, where a strong mix of winning vehicles helped drive another outstanding year in 2017, in the U.S. specifically, GM was the pickup truck sales leader for the fourth year in a row.

在核心業務領域，憑藉強大的獲勝車輛組合，2017 年又取得了出色的表現，特別是在美國，通用汽車連續第四年成為皮卡銷售領先者。

Chevrolet grew retail shares for the third consecutive year, and we became the fastest-growing crossover company in the industry, with retail share of 1.6 percentage points.

雪佛蘭零售份額連續第三年成長，我們成為業界成長最快的跨界車公司，零售市佔率達 1.6 個百分點。

Building on the success of our refreshed crossovers will be the 2019 Chevrolet Silverado and the GMC Sierra full-size pickups, which go on sale later this year, and also the global launch of the Cadillac XT4 luxury compact crossover.

繼我們更新的跨界車的成功基礎上，今年稍後上市的 2019 年雪佛蘭索羅德 (Chevrolet Silverado) 和 GMC Sierra 全尺寸皮卡，以及凱迪拉克 XT4 豪華緊湊型跨界車的全球推出。

With GM International, GM China delivered a year of record sales, led by Buick and Baojun and our luxury brand, Cadillac, which grew 51%.

憑藉著通用汽車國際公司的努力，通用汽車中國在別克和寶駿的帶動下，實現了創紀錄的一年銷量，而我們的豪華品牌凱迪拉克則成長了 51%。

To continue this momentum, GM China will introduce 15 new or refreshed models, including 7 SUVs and crossovers this year.

為延續這一勢頭，通用汽車中國今年將推出15款全新或改款車型，其中包括7款SUV和跨界車。

Finally, in South America, Chevrolet continued its market leadership, where sales rose 13.8% last year.

最後，在南美洲，雪佛蘭繼續保持其市場領先地位，去年銷量成長了 13.8%。

In addition to great products, we are strengthening our performance through cost efficiencies that offset incremental investments in the business.

除了出色的產品之外，我們還透過抵銷業務增量投資的成本效率來增強我們的績效。

We are on track for our commitment to achieve $6.5 billion in efficiencies by the end of this year on a 2014 baseline, and we'll continue that focus on costs beyond 2018.

我們正在兌現我們的承諾，以 2014 年為基準，到今年年底實現 65 億美元的效率提升，並且我們將在 2018 年後繼續關注成本。

In addition, we are making remarkable progress in advancing our vision for the future of personal mobility.

此外，我們在推動個人出行未來願景方面取得了顯著進展。

This year, we expect to increase our investment in transportation-as-a-service initiatives by $1 billion -- to $1 billion, excuse me.

今年，我們預計將對交通即服務計畫的投資增加 10 億美元，抱歉，達到 10 億美元。

Last month, we filed a safety report that is available on gm.com and a safety petition with the U.S. Department of Transportation to allow us to safely deploy our fourth-generation self-driving Cruise AV.

上個月，我們提交了一份安全報告（可在 gm.com 上取得），並向美國交通部提交了一份安全請願書，以便我們能夠安全部署第四代自動駕駛 Cruise AV。

It is the first production-ready vehicle built to operate safely with no driver, no steering wheel, no pedals or manual control.

它是第一款無需駕駛員、無需方向盤、無需踏板或手動控制即可安全運行的量產車輛。

The Cruise AV is another milestone on our path to deploying self-driving vehicles in a ridesharing environment in 2019.

Cruise AV 是我們 2019 年在共享出行環境中部署自動駕駛汽車道路上的另一個里程碑。

To advance our vision of a 0 emissions world, we also announced that General Motors will introduce at least 20 new all-electric models by 2023.

為了推進我們零排放世界的願景，我們也宣布通用汽車將在 2023 年之前推出至少 20 款新的全電動車型。

As we continue to make meaningful progress in lowering battery costs, we are confident that our next-generation EV architecture will be desirable, attainable and profitable, with a range that our customers want.

隨著我們在降低電池成本方面不斷取得有意義的進展，我們相信我們的下一代電動車架構將是理想的、可實現的和有利可圖的，並且具有客戶想要的範圍。

We will begin unveiling these vehicles in 2021.

我們將於 2021 年開始推出這些車輛。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chuck to share additional detail.

現在我想將電話轉給查克分享更多細節。

Thanks, Mary.

謝謝，瑪麗。

I'd like to give some perspective on the quarter and provide additional insights into our 2018 outlook.

我想對本季發表一些看法，並對我們 2018 年的前景提供更多見解。

Our strong fourth quarter results capped another record year of earnings as we met our commitments for the fourth year in a row.

我們強勁的第四季業績為我們連續第四年兌現了我們的承諾，創造了另一個創紀錄的獲利年度。

EBIT-adjusted for the year of more than $12.8 billion repeats 2016 record performance, and we delivered a record margin of 8.8% despite significant volume and commodity headwinds.

本年度調整後的息稅前利潤超過 128 億美元，延續了 2016 年的創紀錄表現，儘管銷量和大宗商品面臨巨大阻力，但我們仍實現了 8.8% 的創紀錄利潤率。

We also achieved a record $6.62 in EPS diluted adjusted.

我們還實現了稀釋調整後每股收益 6.62 美元的創紀錄水平。

Net revenue was $145.6 billion, down 2.4% from 2016 as we rightsized dealer inventories in the United States.

由於我們調整了美國經銷商庫存規模，淨收入為 1,456 億美元，較 2016 年下降 2.4%。

Our strong results for the year were driven by a record North American margin of 10.7%.

我們今年的強勁業績得益於創紀錄的北美利潤率 10.7%。

This was achieved even with wholesales being down more than 10% versus 2016 and flat versus 2015.

即使批發量較 2016 年下降 10% 以上且與 2015 年持平，仍能實現這一目標。

In addition to the record margin in North America, GM Financial generated record earnings before taxes.

除了北美地區創紀錄的利潤率外，通用汽車金融公司還創造了創紀錄的稅前利潤。

And within GM International, China sustained its strong equity income, and we've returned to profitability in South America.

在通用汽車國際內部，中國維持了強勁的股本收入，我們在南美洲也恢復了獲利。

Turning to the fourth quarter.

轉向第四季。

We generated $37.7 billion in net revenue, a record $3.1 billion in EBIT-adjusted and delivered $1.65 in EPS diluted adjusted.

我們的淨收入達到 377 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤達到創紀錄的 31 億美元，攤薄調整後每股收益為 1.65 美元。

In the fourth quarter, North America generated $2.9 billion of EBIT-adjusted, a Q4 record and an increase of $200 million year-over-year.

第四季度，北美地區經調整後的息稅前利潤為 29 億美元，創第四季紀錄，較去年同期成長 2 億美元。

We generated these strong earnings off $28.8 billion of revenue, resulting in another quarter of 10-plus percent margins for North America and leading to our third straight year of 10% or higher margins.

我們透過 288 億美元的收入創造瞭如此強勁的盈利，使北美地區的利潤率又達到了 10% 以上，並連續第三年達到 10% 或更高的利潤率。

Volume continued to be a headwind in the fourth quarter, with wholesales down 135,000 units on a year-over-year basis as we reduced our U.S. dealer inventory as planned.

第四季銷量仍然是一個阻力，由於我們按計劃減少了美國經銷商庫存，批發量比去年同期減少了 135,000 輛。

We ended the year with 63 days supply and 753,000 units of dealer inventory, down 8 days and 92,000 units from the end of 2017, both far surpassing the targets we committed to early last year.

截至年底，我們的經銷商庫存為 63 天和 753,000 輛，比 2017 年底減少了 8 天和 92,000 輛，均遠遠超過了我們去年初承諾的目標。

We generated the record results in North America despite the decline in volume and an increase in raw material costs of about $200 million in the fourth quarter through improved mix, pricing and cost performance.

儘管第四季度銷量下降且原材料成本增加約 2 億美元，但透過改進產品組合、定價和性價比，我們在北美取得了創紀錄的業績。

Both our fourth quarter and calendar year performance demonstrate the resiliency of our North American business.

我們第四季和歷年的業績都證明了我們北美業務的彈性。

For the calendar year, the North America team delivered EBIT-adjusted of $11.9 billion, with a record 10.7% margin even with a 447,000-unit decline in wholesales and $600 million of commodity headwinds.

全年，北美團隊實現了 119 億美元的息稅調整後利潤，儘管批發量減少了 447,000 輛，商品逆風增加了 6 億美元，但利潤率仍達到創紀錄的 10.7%。

And pricing remained strong.

定價仍然強勁。

Our U.S. average transaction prices continue to grow despite increased industry-wide incentive spend and a slightly weaker industry volume.

儘管全行業激勵支出增加且行業交易量略有下降，但我們的美國平均交易價格仍在繼續增長。

Our fourth quarter ATPs of about $37,000 were $1,500 higher than the fourth quarter of 2016.

我們第四季的 ATP 約為 37,000 美元，比 2016 年第四季高出 1,500 美元。

The underlying strength of our business continues to improve as actions we have taken to reduce our fleet sales, improve residual values and drive cost performance are playing out favorably in our results.

我們業務的基礎實力不斷增強，我們為減少車隊銷售、提高殘值和提高成本效益而採取的行動在我們的業績中取得了良好的效果。

Moving to GM International.

搬到通用汽車國際公司。

This is the first quarter for our new reporting segment, which combines the former GMIO region with the former GM South America region.

這是我們新報告部門的第一季度，該部門合併了前 GMIO 地區和前 GM 南美地區。

Overall, EBIT-adjusted for this segment improved $200 million year-over-year driven by costs and price improvements.

總體而言，由於成本和價格改善，該細分市場經調整後的息稅前利潤比去年同期增加了 2 億美元。

South America continued to improve.

南美洲繼續改善。

The fourth quarter was the second straight profitable quarter, resulting in breakeven for the year, and we anticipate continued improvement in 2018.

第四季是連續第二個獲利季度，全年實現損益平衡，我們預計 2018 年將繼續改善。

China continues to deliver solid results, with equity income of $2 billion for the full year, about equal to 2016.

中國持續取得穩健業績，全年股權收入達 20 億美元，與 2016 年持平。

A few comments on GM Financial and our Corp segment.

關於通用汽車金融和我們的公司部門的一些評論。

As we continue to progress towards full captive, GM Financial posted record revenue of $3.3 billion and record earnings before tax adjusted of $300 million in the fourth quarter.

隨著我們繼續朝著完全自保邁進，通用汽車金融公司在第四季度公佈了創紀錄的 33 億美元收入和創紀錄的 3 億美元調整後稅前利潤。

Earnings assets grew 25% to about $86 billion, supporting expected future earnings growth, and we anticipate continued earnings growth in 2018.

獲利資產成長 25%，達到約 860 億美元，支持預期的未來獲利成長，我們預期 2018 年獲利將持續成長。

In the Corporate segment, costs were about $500 million for the fourth quarter and about $1.5 billion for the full year.

在企業部門，第四季的成本約為 5 億美元，全年的成本約為 15 億美元。

This was in line with our expected costs for the year.

這符合我們今年的預期成本。

As discussed at the Deutsche Bank conference, spend on transportation-as-a-service is expected to increase about $400 million in 2018 versus 2017 as we prepare to deploy self-driving vehicles in a rideshare environment in 2019.

正如德意志銀行會議上所討論的，隨著我們準備在 2019 年在共乘環境中部署自動駕駛汽車，2018 年交通即服務支出預計將比 2017 年增加約 4 億美元。

As a result, we expect the corporate sector quarterly costs to run in the $500 million to $600 million range for 2018.

因此，我們預計 2018 年企業部門的季度成本將在 5 億至 6 億美元之間。

Turning to cash flow and capital allocation.

轉向現金流和資本配置。

Q4 adjusted automotive free cash flow improved by $1.7 billion year-over-year, primarily due to favorable working capital as a result of normalization of production from the third quarter of 2017, partially offset by the impact of reduced dealer inventory.

第四季調整後汽車自由現金流年增 17 億美元，主要得益於 2017 年第三季生產正常化帶來的良好營運資本，但部分被經銷商庫存減少的影響所抵銷。

Adjusted automotive free cash flow for the full year of 2017 was $5.2 billion, down $3 billion year-over-year, primarily due to lower automotive EBIT-adjusted of $400 million and movements in dealer inventory levels and the resulting impact on sales incentives of $2.2 billion.

2017 年全年調整後汽車自由現金流為52 億美元，年減30 億美元，主要是由於汽車業息稅前利潤調整後的4 億美元下降以及經銷商庫存水準的變動以及由此對銷售激勵的影響為2.2 美元十億。

As Mary mentioned, we returned $6.7 billion to our shareholders through $2.2 billion in dividends and $4.5 billion in stock repurchases through 2017.

正如瑪麗所提到的，截至 2017 年，我們透過 22 億美元的股息和 45 億美元的股票回購向股東返還了 67 億美元。

And as a result of our strategic sale of Opel/Vauxhall, we're able to reduce our cash target by $2 billion.

由於我們策略性出售歐寶/沃克斯豪爾，我們能夠將現金目標減少 20 億美元。

This is reflected in our year-end cash balance, which is $2 billion lower than the 2016 year-end cash balance.

這反映在我們的年終現金餘額上，比 2016 年年終現金餘額減少了 20 億美元。

Now I want to share more details on our 2018 outlook.

現在我想分享更多關於我們 2018 年展望的細節。

As we outlined last month, we expect to deliver full year 2018 EPS diluted adjusted in the mid-$6 range.

正如我們上個月所概述的，我們預計 2018 年全年每股攤薄調整後的每股收益將在 6 美元左右。

We expect core EBIT-adjusted and core automotive adjusted free cash flow to be largely in line with core business performance in 2017.

我們預計核心 EBIT 調整後和核心汽車調整後自由現金流將與 2017 年核心業務表現基本一致。

Core results consist of all operations, excluding our autonomous vehicle operations, including Cruise Automation, Maven and our investment in Lyft.

核心績效包括所有業務，不包括我們的自動駕駛汽車業務，包括 Cruise Automation、Maven 和我們對 Lyft 的投資。

Core automotive free cash flow will likely remain flat in 2018 as GM North America production levels and ending dealer inventory are expected to be relatively flat.

由於通用汽車北美公司的生產水準和期末經銷商庫存預計將相對持平，2018 年核心汽車自由現金流可能會保持穩定。

Capital spending, as I said last month, will be about $8.5 billion for 2018, and we expect our annual run rate to decline as we get past our next-generation truck launch.

正如我上個月所說，2018 年的資本支出約為 85 億美元，我們預計，隨著下一代卡車的推出，我們的年運行率將會下降。

Looking at 2018 cadence.

看看2018年的節奏。

We expect Q1 and Q4 to be the weakest quarters, driven by typical seasonality as well as our retooling downtime related to our new full-size pickup trucks.

我們預計第一季和第四季將是最疲軟的季度，原因是典型的季節性以及與我們的新型全尺寸皮卡車相關的重組停機時間。

We expect Q2 and Q3 to be the strongest.

我們預計第二季和第三季將是最強的。

North America will be impacted in Q1 by an approximately 60,000-unit volume decline, primarily due to truck downtime.

北美地區第一季銷量將下降約 60,000 輛，主要是由於卡車停工造成的。

As a reminder, Q1 is typically our weakest cash flow quarter due to working capital seasonality.

提醒一下，由於營運資金季節性，第一季通常是我們現金流最弱的季度。

Given the anticipated lower production I just mentioned as well as CapEx spend to support the truck launch, Q1 cash flow is expected to be meaningfully below our historical averages.

考慮到我剛才提到的預期產量下降以及支持卡車推出的資本支出，預計第一季現金流將大大低於我們的歷史平均值。

Our pace of buybacks for 2018 will be dependent on our free cash flow generation; our quarterly dividend, which will remain at $0.38; and any additional calls on cash throughout the year.

我們 2018 年的回購步伐將取決於我們的自由現金流產生；我們的季度股息將維持在 0.38 美元；以及全年任何額外的現金催繳。

In North America, we expect to sustain an EBIT-adjusted margin of 10% plus primarily due to continued strength of the U.S. industry, favorable mix due to a full year of new crossovers, the launch of our all-new full-size trucks and a continued focus on overall cost savings.

在北美，我們預計息稅前調整後的利潤率將維持在 10% 以上，這主要是由於美國行業的持續強勁、全年新跨界車的有利組合、全新全尺寸卡車的推出以及持續關注總體成本節約。

In GM International, we see improvement in 2018, driven primarily by the continued strengthening of our business in South America.

在通用汽車國際公司，我們看到 2018 年有所改善，這主要是由於我們在南美業務的持續加強。

In China, we see a similar dynamic as in 2017 in the past few years: continued pricing pressure offset by a richer mix of crossovers and anchored by strong sales from Buick and growing sales from Baojun and Cadillac, resulting in another year of strong equity income.

在中國，過去幾年我們看到了與2017 年類似的動態：持續的定價壓力被更豐富的跨界車組合所抵消，並受到別克強勁銷售以及寶駿和凱迪拉克銷量增長的支撐，導致又一年強勁的股本收入。

In Korea, we've had recent discussions with key stakeholders regarding the need to improve Korea's financial and operational performance.

在韓國，我們最近與主要利害關係人就改善韓國財務和營運績效的必要性進行了討論。

As we strategically assess our performance, additional restructuring and rationalization actions may be required.

當我們策略性地評估我們的業績時，可能需要採取額外的重組和合理化行動。

More to come on this topic as we move through the year.

隨著這一年的到來，我們將會有更多關於這個主題的內容。

We see a significant opportunity for growth in adjacencies in 2018, specifically GM Financial, where we expect to once again improve earnings.

我們看到 2018 年周邊業務有重大成長機會，特別是通用汽車金融公司，我們預計該業務將再次提高獲利。

Globally, while we expect a continued increase in raw material prices, we currently expect to largely mitigate through other cost performance.

在全球範圍內，雖然我們預計原物料價格將持續上漲，但目前我們預計將透過其他性價比來大幅緩解。

So to sum it up, a record fourth quarter, another record year of profit, margins and EPS diluted adjusted in 2017 in the face of significant volume declines and commodity headwinds.

總而言之，面對銷售量大幅下降和大宗商品逆風，2017 年第四季創歷史新高，利潤、利潤率和每股盈餘稀釋調整後又創歷史新高。

And our organization is focused on meeting our commitments again in 2018 as we've done for the last 4 years.

我們的組織致力於在 2018 年再次履行我們的承諾，就像我們過去 4 年所做的那樣。

That concludes our opening comments.

我們的開場白就到此結束。

We'll now move to the question-and-answer portion of the call.

我們現在將進入通話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

I guess just to start, just to level-set everyone, you referred to core EBIT and core free cash flow, and what you're saying flat in '18, those metrics are about $13.5 billion and just a shade under $6 billion on free cash flow?

我想首先，為了給大家設定一個水平，你提到了核心息稅前利潤和核心自由現金流，以及你所說的18 年持平，這些指標約為135 億美元，僅略低於60 億美元的自由現金流現金週轉？

That would be the math when you look at what we delivered in 2017 and adjust for the investment in AV.

當你看看我們在 2017 年交付的產品並根據 AV 投資進行調整時，這就是數學。

Okay.

好的。

And the $300 million increase in AV and mobility that you're pointing to in '18, is that the level that you think that you're ready to launch at scale in the first quarter of '19?

您提到的 18 年自動駕駛和移動出行領域增加了 3 億美元，您認為您已經準備好在 19 年第一季大規模推出這一水平嗎？

Or should we expect a step-up in the quarter you actually go live?

或者我們應該期望在實際上線的季度有所提升？

Yes.

是的。

I would say it's $400 million roughly from $600 million to $1 billion on AV itself, $700 million to $1.1 billion overall in the TaaS segment when you factor in Maven and some of the other activities, but specific to AV at $600 million to $1 billion, Joe.

我想說，AV 本身大約是4 億美元，從6 億美元到10 億美元不等，當你考慮到Maven 和其他一些活動時，TaaS 領域的總體成本為7 億到11 億美元，但具體到AV 則為6 億至10 億美元，喬.

And that's the run rate for 2018.

這就是 2018 年的運行率。

That's what we think we need to spend in order to continue on that path, and we'll have more to say about 2019 as we exit through 2018.

這就是我們認為我們需要花的錢才能繼續走這條路，當我們退出 2018 年時，我們將對 2019 年有更多的話要說。

Okay.

好的。

And then last -- and last one, and just because you mentioned some of the adjacency growth in GM Financial.

最後，也是最後一個，只是因為您提到了通用汽車金融公司的一些鄰接成長。

And clearly, there's -- I know there's a lot of economic factors that go into the forecast, but there's been a more recent focus on rates.

顯然，我知道預測涉及很多經濟因素，但最近人們更關注利率。

Do you feel confident with that on a reasonable range of rate outcomes for 2018?

您對 2018 年合理的利率結果範圍有信心嗎？

Well, clearly, our expectations for -- or maybe not so, but I'll make it clear now.

嗯，很明顯，我們的期望——或者也許不是這樣，但我現在會說清楚。

Our expectations for 2018 were based on a set of assumptions from a macro perspective.

我們對 2018 年的預期是基於一系列宏觀假設。

Here, specific in the U.S., it was an environment where there are going to be moderate increases in interest, 75 basis points, moderate inflation, moderate wage growth, continued GDP growth and an industry that was going to be in the low 17 millions.

在這裡，特別是在美國，利率將適度上漲，達到 75 個基點，通膨溫和，工資適度增長，GDP 持續增長，行業人口將在 1700 萬以下。

Under that construct, we would expect the growth in GM Financial I have indicated as well as another strong year in North America with 10-plus percent margins.

在這種結構下，我們預計通用汽車金融公司將實現我所指出的成長，並且北美地區將迎來另一個強勁的一年，利潤率將超過 10%。

That's our baseline assumption, and that's what we're executing to at this point.

這是我們的基準假設，也是我們目前正在執行的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Guggenheim.

你的下一個問題來自伊曼紐·羅斯納（Emmanuel Rosner）與古根漢（Guggenheim）的合作。

Just wanted -- could you give a little more color on the puts and takes for your GM North America EBIT in 2018?

只是想知道 - 您能否對 2018 年通用汽車北美公司的息稅前利潤的看跌期權和索取情況提供更多信息？

So I guess if we're -- if you referred to the typical buckets that you're reporting it in the slides.

所以我想如果我們——如果你提到了你在幻燈片中報告的典型桶。

How should we think about those puts and takes for this year?

我們該如何看待今年的這些賣權？

So you're looking for an EBIT bridge, Emmanuel.

所以你正在尋找息稅前利潤橋樑，Emmanuel。

So I'll give you kind of a high-level view because we kind of painted the macro backdrop.

所以我會給你一個高層次的觀點，因為我們描繪了宏觀背景。

So the way I think about it and going back to the Deutsche Bank conference and looking at it from a tailwinds and a headwinds perspective, clearly, as we think about 2018 headwinds, and it's global but obviously a big component, North America, commodity prices are going to increase, pricing is going to continue to be challenging in the carryover space, and we expect a lower industry.

因此，我的思考方式是，回到德意志銀行會議，從順風和逆風的角度來看待它，顯然，正如我們思考2018 年的逆風一樣，它是全球性的，但顯然是一個重要組成部分，北美、大宗商品價格將會增加，結轉空間的定價將繼續面臨挑戰，我們預期產業將會下降。

And then we've got the added specific issue in North America, as we talked about, of the incremental truck downtime roughly 60,000 units.

然後，正如我們所討論的，我們在北美還遇到了額外的具體問題，即增加了約 60,000 輛卡車的停機時間。

To generate 10% margins in North America and offset some of those tailwinds or headwinds, we have the full year impact of our crossover launches, specifically the mid-crossovers, Traverse, Enclave and Equinox.

為了在北美實現 10% 的利潤率並抵消一些順風或逆風，我們對跨界車的推出產生了全年影響，特別是中型跨界車、Traverse、Enclave 和 Equinox。

And we think that's going to be a pretty significant tailwind from a pricing perspective.

我們認為，從定價角度來看，這將是相當重要的推動因素。

We expect volume to be relatively flat year-over-year, but mix will be a headwind because of the lower truck production.

我們預計銷量將同比相對持平，但由於卡車產量下降，混合將成為不利因素。

And we expect cost performance to be favorable as we've demonstrated over the last couple of years with commercial and technical savings in GPSC and further SG&A efficiencies more than offsetting the incremental impact of commodities and launch-related costs.

我們預計成本效益將是有利的，正如我們在過去幾年中透過 GPSC 的商業和技術節省以及進一步的 SG&A 效率所證明的那樣，這足以抵消商品和發射相關成本的增量影響。

So that's kind of the broad buckets.

這就是寬泛的桶子。

Obviously, as we've done over the last number of years, that's the baseline plan.

顯然，正如我們過去幾年所做的那樣，這就是基準計劃。

And as we go through the year, we will make adjustments and course correct in order to continue to execute towards that objective, again contextually within the macro environment that I described earlier.

在這一年中，我們將做出調整並修正路線，以便繼續實現這一目標，同樣是在我之前描述的宏觀環境中。

And that's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And I guess specifically within GMNA pricing, do you see any risk of just increased competitive conditions on the truck side?

我想，特別是在 GMNA 定價中，您是否認為卡車方面的競爭條件增加有任何風險？

I mean, I understand on the crossover side you have new product.

我的意思是，我知道在跨界方面你們有新產品。

But I guess on the pickup truck side, it seems like conditions are getting extremely competitive.

但我想在皮卡車方面，條件似乎變得非常有競爭力。

Any -- I guess, what is the directional assumption in your guidance for that?

我想，您對此的指導中的方向性假設是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

I would say, broadly speaking, we'll have favorable pricing on new major, primarily driven by the full year of the crossovers and then the launch of the new truck later in the year.

我想說，從廣義上講，我們將在新的主要產品上獲得優惠的定價，這主要是由全年的跨界車以及今年稍後推出的新卡車推動的。

And there'll be a headwind, as we've seen over the last few years, on carryover pricing as incentive spend continues to amp up.

正如我們在過去幾年中看到的那樣，隨著激勵支出的持續增加，結轉定價將面臨阻力。

But I would say in that context, we still think truck pricing is going to be reasonably constructive.

但我想說，在這種情況下，我們仍然認為卡車定價將具有相當的建設性。

And just one data point.

而且只有一個數據點。

If you look at truck pricing -- transaction prices, say, Q4 versus Q3 in 2017, from a segment perspective, they were up another $1,000 a unit from a transaction pricing perspective.

如果你看一下卡車定價——交易價格，比如，從細分市場的角度來看，2017 年第四季與第三季相比，從交易定價的角度來看，每輛卡車又上漲了1,000 美元。

We were down slightly given the age of our truck, and we've built that into our plan as we go through 2018.

考慮到我們卡車的使用年限，我們的業績略有下降，我們已將其納入 2018 年的計劃中。

So on balance, I -- we feel reasonably good about truck pricing.

因此，總的來說，我們對卡車定價感覺相當不錯。

Certainly, we're looking forward to the next-generation truck, which we think is going to be a significant tailwind for us.

當然，我們期待下一代卡車，我們認為這將成為我們的重要推動力。

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Itay Michaeli。

Maybe a question on the strength of the pickup truck franchise, but asked in a different way.

也許是關於皮卡車專營權實力的問題，但以不同的方式提出。

Chuck, if I look at your guidance of kind of mid-$6 EPS and I remove the $1 billion of Cruise AV investments, would it be fair to say that, kind of all else equal, GM could still earn $6 plus in a, call it, high 15 million light vehicle SAAR.

查克，如果我看一下你的每股收益6 美元左右的指導，並且我刪除了10 億美元的Cruise AV 投資，那麼可以公平地說，在其他條件相同的情況下，通用汽車仍然可以在電話中賺取6 美元以上的收入它，高達1500萬輛輕型汽車SAAR。

How are you thinking about the sensitivity now to the SAAR given what we've seen in terms of the pickup truck variable profits for yourselves and the industry?

考慮到我們所看到的皮卡車為您自己和行業帶來的可變利潤，您如何看待現在對 SAAR 的敏感度？

Good question, Itay.

好問題，伊泰。

So the basic math would be, if we're in a 16 million industry versus 17 million, our wholesales are going to come down roughly 200,000 units, right?

因此，基本數學是，如果我們處於 1600 萬個行業與 1700 萬個行業中，我們的批發量將減少大約 200,000 件，對嗎？

So 200,000 units at our average variable profit.

因此，我們的平均可變利潤為 200,000 單位。

The math would suggest that we would be north of $6 EPS in that environment for sure.

數學表明，在這種環境下，我們的每股盈餘肯定會超過 6 美元。

I mean, it's a reasonably easy math exercise.

我的意思是，這是一個相當簡單的數學練習。

I think the key is how that develops, right, and how that 17 million to 16 million industry develops because there's other factors that would come in play, what's the pricing environment as you're going down in aggregate?

我認為關鍵在於它如何發展，對吧，以及 1700 萬到 1600 萬的行業如何發展，因為還有其他因素會發揮作用，當你總體下降時，定價環境是什麼？

What's the mix?

混合是什麼？

But I would say that that's how we're trying to position this business.

但我想說，這就是我們試圖定位這項業務的方式。

I've always talked about North American EBIT margins of 10% and building a business model that would sustain that in a mid to high -- mid 15 million to low 16 million range.

我總是談論北美 10% 的息稅前利潤率，並建立一種將其維持在中高（1500 萬至 1600 萬低）範圍內的商業模式。

And that's what we've been progressing to, and I would say the resilience of the business model last year would suggest that.

這就是我們一直在取得的進展，我想說去年商業模式的彈性顯示了這一點。

We were kind of wholesaling or producing at a SAAR level that was less than 17.6 million when you look at our year-over-year volume decline.

當你看到我們的同比銷量下降時，我們的批發或生產水平是 SAAR 水平，不到 1760 萬。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just my follow-up.

然後就是我的後續行動。

On the $1.5 billion of adjacent profit growth, I think through 2021, can you share the cadence around that?

關於 15 億美元的相鄰利潤增長，我認為到 2021 年，您能分享一下圍繞這一點的節奏嗎？

How much might you be seeing this year?

今年你可能會看到多少？

And how much might that be contributing to your expectation of earnings improvement in 2019?

這對您 2019 年獲利改善的預期有何貢獻？

Yes.

是的。

I would say that without providing specifics over that kind of direction, where we're going to see and what we said back in January was significant improvement in 2018, primarily GM Financial as we continue on the captive.

我想說的是，如果不提供此類方向的具體細節，我們將看到的以及我們 1 月份所說的 2018 年的顯著改善，主要是通用汽車金融公司，因為我們繼續自保。

And then we'll leg in the benefits in aftersales and OnStar as we go through kind of the '19 to '21 time frame.

然後，當我們經歷「19 世紀」到「21 世紀」的時間框架時，我們將利用售後和 OnStar 的優勢。

The aftersales will be driven by continued growth in the carpark after we bottomed out kind of in 2016, troughed out and then continue to increase our service loyalty.

在我們於 2016 年觸底之後，售後將受到停車場持續增長的推動，走出低谷，然後繼續提高我們的服務忠誠度。

And OnStar is just continuing the growth of 4G LTE and some of the other related opportunities for revenue growth from that perspective.

從這個角度來看，OnStar 正在繼續 4G LTE 的成長以及其他一些相關的收入成長機會。

So long answer.

這麼長的答案。

Simple answer is most of the improvement is going to come in GMF in '18 and then, between the 3 of them, kind of leg that in '19 to '21.

簡單的答案是，大部分改進將在 18 年的 GMF 中實現，然後，在其中 3 個之間，將在 19 到 21 年間實現。

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Colin Langan。

Any color -- you've talked in the past about small cars losing money.

任何顏色——你過去曾談到小型汽車賠錢。

Any updates there in terms of maybe turning those around?

有任何可能扭轉這些局面的更新嗎？

Looks to be the only area that's underperforming, I guess.

我猜這似乎是唯一表現不佳的領域。

And is it still losing money?

而且還在虧損嗎？

Last year, we had a focus and we took several actions to improve the overall performance across our car portfolio, although as you saw the shifts in the market, significant pressure on cars, especially in the U.S. So we continue to look for opportunities.

去年，我們有一個重點，並採取了多項行動來提高我們汽車產品組合的整體性能，儘管正如您所看到的市場變化，汽車面臨巨大壓力，特別是在美國，所以我們繼續尋找機會。

We are well positioned, though, when you look at the fact that it was in the '15 time frame when we invested in and launched the compact and the midsize with the Chevrolet Cruze and the Malibu.

不過，當你看到我們在 15 年投資並推出雪佛蘭科魯茲和邁銳寶等緊湊型和中型車時，我們就處於有利的地位。

So we're well positioned with those being very robust architectures to continue to respond to the marketplace with very little capital investment as we move forward.

因此，我們已經做好了充分準備，擁有非常強大的架構，可以在我們前進的過程中以很少的資本投資繼續回應市場。

And I'll also say, if you look broader globally from a car perspective, when we start to launch GEM in the '19 time frame, I think that sets us up very well, especially in emerging markets, Mexico, China and South America, to have a very strong car platform and really reach into the marketplace where the -- where customers are focused.

我還要說，如果你從汽車的角度放眼全球，當我們開始在 19 年的時間範圍內推出創業板時，我認為這對我們來說非常有利，特別是在新興市場、墨西哥、中國和南美，擁有一個非常強大的汽車平台，並真正進入客戶關注的市場。

Got it.

知道了。

And any color on the size of the raw material headwinds, just based on your guidance in terms of number?

僅根據您對數量的指導，原材料逆風的大小有什麼顏色？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, just to put it in perspective, last year, when we look at it in aggregate, on a year-over-year basis, it was in the $700 million zip code.

我的意思是，客觀地來看，去年，當我們逐年進行總體比較時，它出現在價值 7 億美元的郵遞區號中。

I think our baseline planning assumption is something a little bit less than that in 2018, so roughly speaking, call it $400 million to $500 million.

我認為我們的基線規劃假設比 2018 年要少一些，所以粗略地說，稱之為 4 億到 5 億美元。

But I think the important point is, as we see that develop, we were -- obviously, we're able to offset that impact last year through really strong performance across all other cost drivers, and we will react as we see how this develops during the year.

但我認為重要的一點是，正如我們所看到的那樣，顯然，我們能夠通過所有其他成本驅動因素的強勁表現來抵消去年的影響，並且我們將在看到這種情況如何發展時做出反應年內。

But again, for baseline planning assumptions, call it in the zip code of $0.5 billion or so.

但同樣，對於基線規劃假設，請用郵遞區號 5 億美元左右來稱呼它。

Got it.

知道了。

And just one last question.

還有最後一個問題。

How should we think about the use of free cash flow this year?

我們該如何看待今年自由現金流的使用？

I think you indicated in your comments that it would be about flat year-over-year.

我認為您在評論中表示，這一數字將與去年同期持平。

Do you think the majority of the excess cash will be used for repurchases?

您認為多餘的現金大部分會用於回購嗎？

Or should we model it in that way?

或者我們應該以這種方式建模？

Or do you need some more deleveraging?

或者你需要更多的去槓桿化嗎？

Any thoughts there?

有什麼想法嗎？

Well, I think that our capital allocation framework is relatively transparent.

那我認為我們的資本配置架構是比較透明的。

We've been executing into it with discipline over the last number of years.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直按照紀律嚴格執行。

So our guidance is flat free cash flow year-over-year in our core business, so call it roughly ex TaaS $6 billion; with TaaS, roughly $5 billion.

因此，我們的指導是我們核心業務的自由現金流同比持平，因此大約稱為前 TaaS 60 億美元；加上 TaaS，約 50 億美元。

And we pay dividends, so that'll be $2.2 billion, that'll leave $2.8 billion for other actions, other actions being M&A, not that I'm suggesting there's anything on the radar, but that's what that's for; and/or restructuring and/or share buybacks.

我們支付股息，所以這將是 22 億美元，這將留下 28 億美元用於其他行動，其他行動是併購，並不是我建議雷達上有任何東西，但這就是目的；和/或重組和/或股票回購。

And I would say, as we go through the year, you would start with a $2.8 billion kind of opportunity for share buybacks, and we'll just -- we'll see what develops.

我想說，當我們度過這一年時，你會從 28 億美元的股票回購機會開始，我們會看看會發生什麼。

But to the extent that we have free cash flow available, that's what we're going to do.

但只要我們有可用的自由現金流，這就是我們要做的。

We're going to buy back shares.

我們要回購股票。

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

I hate to beat a dead horse here and just kind of stay on North America for a second.

我不想在這裡死馬當活馬醫，而只是在北美停留片刻。

But when we look at it, the performance in the second half of the year has been pretty remarkable, with volumes down and margins incredibly strong and actually in the fourth quarter up.

但當我們看到它時，下半年的表現相當出色，銷量下降，利潤率異常強勁，而第四季度實際上有所上升。

I'm just curious, as you look at the market, I mean, the 2 levers that you've been able to pull is product launches and strong mix, and the second one is cost cutting.

我只是很好奇，當你觀察市場時，我的意思是，你能夠拉動的兩個槓桿是產品發布和強大的組合，第二個槓桿是成本削減。

So I'm just thinking, as you look at sort of your product cadence going forward, do you think there's an opportunity to upsell consumers into products that are better for them at higher prices and higher variable margins?

所以我只是在想，當你審視未來的產品節奏時，你認為是否有機會以更高的價格和更高的可變利潤向消費者追加銷售更適合他們的產品？

Do you think you could kind of clip off another 5-point move towards crossover?

你認為你可以再朝交叉方向邁進 5 分嗎？

Just kind of how you're thinking about that upselling opportunity.

這就是您對追加銷售機會的看法。

And then also how much further you have to go on cost cutting in North America to potentially set off -- offset any weakness or create just absolute upside to earnings going forward?

然後，你還需要在北美進一步削減成本多少，才能抵消任何弱點或為未來的盈利創造絕對的上升空間？

Yes.

是的。

Let me focus on trucks, John, because we spent a fair amount of time talking about that at the Deutsche Bank conference.

約翰，讓我集中討論卡車，因為我們在德意志銀行會議上花了相當多的時間討論這個問題。

While we've done very well with the current truck franchise, we think there's significant upside with the next generation because we've released a number of constraints that we've had that will allow us to drive richer mix.

雖然我們在目前的卡車專營權方面做得非常好，但我們認為下一代有顯著的優勢，因為我們已經釋放了一些限制，這將使我們能夠推動更豐富的組合。

The Silverado, we will have 8 very distinct models that will cover the breadth of the portfolio, including up level where the current truck has really underperformed.

Silverado，我們將擁有 8 款非常獨特的車型，涵蓋產品組合的廣度，包括目前卡車表現確實不佳的高階車型。

We've also eliminated the constraint on crew cab mix that we've had.

我們也消除了雙排座駕駛室組合的限制。

We underperformed versus the market on crew cab mix.

與雙排座駕駛室組合市場相比，我們的表現不佳。

And I think we talked about, in general, a $2 billion opportunity for revenue growth just by releasing those constraints.

我認為我們總體上討論了透過釋放這些限制來實現 20 億美元收入成長的機會。

So that's an example of something that we're executing, we're executing with the next-generation truck.

這是我們正在執行的一個範例，我們正在使用下一代卡車執行。

I'd also say that as we think about the overall truck, not only are we releasing some of these constraints and have a broader product offering, there's going to be significant differentiation between the Silverado and the very premium Sierra.

我還想說，當我們考慮整個卡車時，我們不僅會釋放一些限制並提供更廣泛的產品，Silverado 和非常優質的 Sierra 之間也會有顯著的差異。

And we're going to continue to focus on that.

我們將繼續關注這一點。

We think that's going to provide upside as well as the Denali mix that has been very favorable to us.

我們認為這將提供上行空間以及對我們非常有利的麥金利峰組合。

And I think you'll continue to see that focus on differentiation when we launch the heavy duties as well as the SUVs.

我認為，當我們推出重型車和 SUV 時，您將繼續看到我們對差異化的關注。

So very, very purposefully, as we did the full-size truck pickup, we're trying to address some of the challenges we've had over the number of years to really drive the best possible mix and profitability.

因此，當我們製作全尺寸卡車皮卡時，我們非常非常有目的地努力解決多年來遇到的一些挑戰，以真正推動最佳的組合和盈利能力。

And we think -- I think we solve that with this truck that we're going to start launching later in 2018.

我們認為，我們將透過這款卡車解決這個問題，我們將於 2018 年稍後開始推出。

Chuck, just to clarify, the $2 billion revenue opportunity, that does not include the HDs or does that include the HDs as well?

Chuck，我想澄清一下，20 億美元的收入機會，不包括 HD，還是也包括 HD？

That was on LDs, just looking at crew cab mix.

那是在 LD 上，只是看看雙排座駕駛室的組合。

So the high-level number, John, right, but if you just look at our penetration or our average transaction prices versus kind of the segment leader and that opportunity, and we think that we can close 75% of that just by releasing the constraint on crew cab mix.

所以，約翰，是的，高級別數字，但如果你只看一下我們的滲透率或我們的平均交易價格與細分市場領導者和機會的比較，我們認為我們可以通過釋放約束來完成75% 的目標在乘員駕駛室混合上。

And I've got to imagine that's got pretty high variable margins.

我必須想像它的可變利潤率相當高。

It does.

確實如此。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Then a second question, Mary.

接下來是第二個問題，瑪莉。

I mean, I think a lot of us here in New York and even the investor community are looking at the potential launch of a test fleet of Cruise vehicles here in New York City this year.

我的意思是，我認為我們紐約的許多人，甚至投資者界都在考慮今年在紐約市推出巡航車輛測試車隊的可能性。

I'm just curious where that stands as far as the launch and what we should be looking forward to, hopefully for an event -- an investor event around it?

我只是好奇就發布而言，情況如何，以及我們應該期待什麼，希望能舉辦一場圍繞它的投資者活動？

So we are on track and proceeding to be able to launch in a geo-fenced ridesharing environment autonomous vehicles in the 2019 time frame.

因此，我們正步入正軌，並預計在 2019 年的時間範圍內在地理圍欄的共乘環境中推出自動駕駛汽車。

Clearly, the focus continues to be on the development we're doing in San Francisco because of the complexity of that environment and the learnings that we get and the speed of learnings that we get from San Francisco.

顯然，重點仍然是我們在舊金山所做的開發，因為舊金山環境的複雜性以及我們學到的知識和我們從舊金山學到的知識的速度。

We are in the process of mapping New York, and I don't have anything specific to share of when we'll actually have a fleet deployed, but we are on that path, as we announced last year, and we'll continue.

我們正在繪製紐約地圖，我沒有任何具體資訊可以分享我們何時實際部署一支艦隊，但正如我們去年宣布的那樣，我們正在這條道路上，我們將繼續下去。

But I'd say the primary focus is on San Francisco.

但我想說主要焦點是舊金山。

Okay.

好的。

And then just last real quick.

然後最後很快。

Chuck, when we look at the GMF dividend, it looks like it went reverse from the ParentCo to GMF, $600 million in the fourth quarter.

查克，當我們看 GMF 股息時，看起來它從母公司轉向了 GMF，第四季度為 6 億美元。

What's going on there?

那裡發生了什麼事？

And when could we expect to see sort of the more traditional dividend up from the FinCo to the ParentCo develop?

我們什麼時候才能看到從金融公司到母公司的更傳統的股利發展？

And I mean, when will that occur?

我的意思是，這什麼時候會發生？

And should we look at a $1 billion size out in '19 or '20 when GMF matures?

當基因改造食品成熟時，我們是否應該在 19 年或 20 年考慮 10 億美元的規模？

Yes.

是的。

The dividend came from GMF to the parent in 2017, was not included in our free cash flow numbers.

2017 年，GMF 向母公司發放的股利並未包含在我們的自由現金流資料中。

It was related to the transaction of divesting our FinCo in Europe.

這與剝離我們在歐洲的 FinCo 的交易有關。

And when -- as you looked at the proceeds and leverage ratios and everything else, they had the capacity to dividend about half of the proceeds to us, which we did.

當你看到收益和槓桿率以及其他一切時，他們有能力將大約一半的收益分紅給我們，我們也這樣做了。

Again, that's not captured in the free cash flow number for 2017 obviously in liquidity.

同樣，這並沒有體現在 2017 年的自由現金流數據中，顯然是流動性。

Relative to long term -- I think good question, John.

相對於長期而言——我認為這是個好問題，約翰。

And I think I would think about it in the context of our view on long-term cash generation capabilities of the company.

我想我會根據我們對公司長期現金產生能力的看法來考慮這個問題。

Clearly, where we sit right now, pretty heavy CapEx load with the next-generation truck.

顯然，我們現在所處的位置，下一代卡車的資本支出負擔相當重。

Incremental investment in AV, we're in the zip code of $5 billion to $6 billion of free cash flow.

透過對 AV 的增量投資，我們的自由現金流達到 50 億至 60 億美元。

As you think beyond the next couple of years in this kind of environment, we think our cash generation capability increases significantly.

當你想到在這種環境下的未來幾年，我們認為我們的現金產生能力將會顯著增加。

A couple of drivers to that.

有幾個驅動程式。

One, we'll be cycling past our high capital spend, and as we've indicated, we expect capital spend to come down.

第一，我們將超越高資本支出，正如我們所指出的，我們預計資本支出將會下降。

And two, we're going to, at some point in time, start to get the benefit of dividends from GM Financial.

第二，我們將在某個時間點開始從通用汽車金融公司獲得股息。

And I would say, stay tuned on that.

我想說，請繼續關注。

We'll have more to say as we get closer to that, but that is certainly part of our go-forward kind of plan relative to cash and cash flow and enhancing the overall cash generation of the business.

當我們接近這一目標時，我們會有更多話要說，但這肯定是我們與現金和現金流以及增強業務整體現金產生相關的前瞻性計劃的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Just 2 questions.

只有 2 個問題。

First, you've made some really bold moves, your team, on rationalizing and exiting businesses where the chances of generating a positive return on capital are really, really remote.

首先，您的團隊在合理化和退出業務方面採取了一些非常大膽的舉措，因為這些業務產生正資本回報的機會非常非常渺茫。

Obviously, Europe being the biggest and most significant of that.

顯然，歐洲是其中最大、最重要的。

So as you assess the portfolio today, are there still some either product areas or regions -- and I guess I'm thinking Korea, although I won't say Korea, the areas where really you maybe couldn't justify being in long term?

因此，當您今天評估產品組合時，是否還有一些產品領域或地區 - 我想我正在考慮韓國，儘管我不會說韓國，但從長遠來看，這些地區確實是您無法證明的合理性？

Well, if you look at it, I mean, I think we have a track record of demonstrating that we're going to look at, to your point, those segments and regions and/or countries and look at our ability to generate the right returns over a long period of time.

好吧，如果你看一下，我的意思是，我認為我們有記錄表明我們將根據你的觀點來研究這些細分市場、地區和/或國家，並看看我們產生正確的能力的能力。回報。

Clearly, Korea is a challenge for us.

顯然，韓國對我們來說是一個挑戰。

We have a strong presence there.

我們在那裡有很強的影響力。

We've grown market share.

我們增加了市場佔有率。

The brand has -- Chevrolet brand has done well, but the current cost structure has become challenging.

該品牌——雪佛蘭品牌做得很好，但目前的成本結構已變得具有挑戰性。

And we're going to have to take actions going forward to have a viable business.

我們必須採取行動才能擁有可行的業務。

We've already begun conversations with the key stakeholders in GM Korea, including our minority owners and the union, and being very clear that we need to improve the financial and operating performance.

我們已經開始與通用汽車韓國的主要利益相關者進行對話，包括我們的少數股東和工會，並非常明確地表明我們需要改善財務和營運績效。

So we're right in the middle of having those conversations.

所以我們正在進行這些對話。

We know, and within Korea and there's a few other countries where we have to look at, that we're going to take the steps necessary to have the right franchise going forward, that may result in some rationalization actions or restructuring that potentially could have a material impact on our results.

我們知道，在韓國和其他一些我們必須關注的國家，我們將採取必要的步驟來獲得正確的特許經營權，這可能會導致一些合理化行動或重組，這可能會導致對我們的結果產生重大影響。

But it's too soon to tell right now.

但現在說還太早。

We're right in the middle of the conversations to make sure everybody, all the stakeholders understand the steps we need to take.

我們正在進行對話，以確保每個人、所有利害關係人了解我們需要採取的步驟。

And you mentioned a few other countries.

你還提到了其他幾個國家。

Any of these countries outside of Asia?

這些國家中有哪些是亞洲以外的？

Or could you be more specific?

或者你能說得更具體一點嗎？

I'm going to say primarily in our GMI operation, but I would say Korea is the one that we're most focused on, the others I think would be less significant.

我主要想說的是我們的 GMI 運營，但我想說韓國是我們最關注的一個，其他我認為不太重要。

Fine, all right.

好吧，好吧。

And then as my second and final question, on the robo-taxi fleet.

然後是我的第二個也是最後一個問題，關於機器人計程車車隊。

Can you -- and it's -- a bit of round numbers are helpful here.

你能——而且是——一些整數在這裡有幫助嗎？

How many Level 4 or Level 5 vehicles does GM have on the road and are testing fleet right now?

通用汽車目前有多少 4 級或 5 級車輛在路上行駛並正在進行測試？

How many would you expect by year-end and maybe an order of magnitude for 2019?

您預計到年底會有多少，2019 年可能會增加一個數量級？

I ask that question because it's important for us to kind of put to your guidance sort of transparency on the amount of money you're putting towards it to try to think of it on a unit basis, to kind of have an understanding of the size of your footprint.

我問這個問題是因為對我們來說，向您提供關於您投入的金額的透明度的指導非常重要，我們要嘗試以單位為基礎來考慮它，以了解其規模您的足跡。

So if you could help us with that, that would be appreciated.

因此，如果您能幫助我們，我們將不勝感激。

Well, right now, we have about 100 vehicles that are driving primarily Gen 2, Gen 3. And so that's where our focus.

嗯，現在，我們有大約 100 輛汽車，主要使用第 2 代、第 3 代。

That will be growing through the course of this year.

今年這一數字將會持續成長。

Remember, we're -- we talked about, when we were together in the fall, getting to a point where we're collecting 1 million miles per month.

請記住，我們在秋天聚在一起時討論過，要達到每月累積 100 萬英里的目標。

And so we're on that path to get there throughout this year.

因此，我們今年將沿著這條道路實現這一目標。

Beyond that, we haven't sized it.

除此之外，我們還沒有確定它的大小。

And that is something that we'll share more as we get through this year and into the 2019 time frame.

當我們度過今年並進入 2019 年時，我們將分享更多內容。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

You mentioned in the slides that you've now achieved by the end of 2017 $5.5 billion of the $6.5 billion cumulative cost saves targeted through 2018.

您在投影片中提到，到 2017 年底，您已實現 2018 年累計成本節省 65 億美元目標中的 55 億美元。

These savings, I think they started in 2015.

我認為這些節省是從 2015 年開始的。

So I guess like 75% of the savings period has elapsed, and you've now realized 85% of the targeted savings.

所以我猜 75% 的儲蓄期限已經過去，您現在已經實現了 85% 的目標儲蓄。

So is the takeaway that the cost savings continue but at an accelerated pace?

那麼，成本節約是否仍在持續，但速度加快了呢？

Or maybe that -- and if history is any guidance, we've increased the number a couple of times, there could be some upside in 2018 to that $6.5 billion number.

或者也許是這樣——如果歷史有任何指導的話，我們已經將這個數字增加了幾次，2018 年這個 65 億美元的數字可能會有一些上升。

Do you think if there's some incremental pressures in 2018, like higher-than-anticipated commodity prices, that you might be able to push a little bit further on cost to try to offset that?

您認為如果 2018 年出現一些增量壓力（例如高於預期的大宗商品價格），您是否可以進一步提高成本以試圖抵消這種壓力？

Well, I'd say, first, when we've first rolled out this objective, it was at $5.5 billion.

嗯，我想說，首先，當我們第一次推出這個目標時，目標是 55 億美元。

And as we overachieved it last year, early last year is when we raised it to $6.5 billion.

由於我們去年超額完成了這一目標，去年初我們將其提高到了 65 億美元。

Importantly, just to level-set that, this is primarily commercial savings, SG&A and manufacturing, which we've said would more than offset the incremental investment in marketing, engineering and D&A.

重要的是，就水平而言，這主要是商業節省、SG&A 和製造，我們曾說過這將足以抵消行銷、工程和 D&A 的增量投資。

And I'd -- what we like to do is achieve the commitments that we make and then move from there.

我想——我們喜歡做的是實現我們所做的承諾，然後從那裡開始行動。

So clearly, we are very focused on achieving the $6.5 billion that we committed to back in 2015.

顯然，我們非常專注於實現 2015 年承諾的 65 億美元目標。

Clearly, we believe there's opportunities above and beyond that, that we're going to continue to pursue.

顯然，我們相信除此之外還有我們將繼續追求的機會。

And once we hit the $6.5 billion, we will set the next objective for ourselves because I do believe there's, and so does Mary, further opportunities beyond that.

一旦我們達到 65 億美元，我們將為自己設定下一個目標，因為我相信，瑪麗也相信，除此之外還有更多的機會。

And I'd also say, Ryan, that if you look at last year and look at the EBIT bridges that we sent, you'll see pretty significant across-the-board cost performance outside of these buckets as well.

我還要說，瑞安，如果你看看去年並看看我們發送的息稅前利潤橋樑，你也會看到這些桶之外的相當顯著的全面成本效益。

So we had significant improvement in warranty driven by improved quality, reduced recalls, all the things that we talked about back in 2014.

因此，透過提高品質、減少召回以及我們在 2014 年討論過的所有事情，我們在保固方面取得了顯著改善。

And we are really focused on that.

我們非常關注這一點。

So more to come.

未來還會有更多。

But first, we're going to get the $6.5 billion commitment in the bag, and then I'm quite sure that we'll have more to say on above and beyond that.

但首先，我們將兌現 65 億美元的承諾，然後我確信除此之外我們還會有更多話要說。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then, Chuck, I think I heard you say that there would be a 60,000-unit headwind in truck volume in the first quarter due to the changeover to the new pickups, which I think was a little surprising because the launch doesn't take, I think, place until 3Q.

然後，查克，我想我聽到你說，由於換用新皮卡，第一季卡車銷量將出現 60,000 輛的逆風，我認為這有點令人驚訝，因為推出並不需要，我想，放置到3Q。

But all along, you've been approaching this launch a little bit differently that in the past, even taking some downtime in 2017, for example, to prepare for a 2018 launch.

但一直以來，你們對待此次發布的方式與過去略有不同，甚至在 2017 年停工了一些時間，例如為 2018 年的發布做準備。

So maybe can you just talk about some of the efforts that you've already taken and then are going to take in 1Q to kind of help to prepare for this smoother-than-typical launch in the back half of the year?

那麼，也許您可以談談您已經採取的一些努力，然後將在第一季採取一些幫助，為今年下半年比平常更順利的發布做好準備？

I think it might be helpful because consensus is below your forecast currently.

我認為這可能會有所幫助，因為目前的共識低於您的預測。

And I think a primary reason for that is that The Street is maybe not fully understanding why your profits can maintain at such a strong level while launching a new truck because typically in the past, both GM and Ford have seen at least temporarily lower profits in the year that they launch a new truck.

我認為主要原因是華爾街可能沒有完全理解為什麼在推出新卡車的同時你的利潤能夠保持在如此強勁的水平，因為通常在過去，通用汽車和福特的利潤至少暫時較低。一年。

Yes.

是的。

I -- specific to this truck, I'd, again, start at a high level, Ryan.

我——具體到這輛卡車，我會再次從高水準開始，瑞安。

This is an all-new architecture.

這是一個全新的架構。

Our last 3 generations of truck were fundamentally off the same architecture with changes in sheet metal.

我們的最後 3 代卡車基本上採用相同的架構，只是鈑金改變了。

So this is an absolutely all-new architecture, which requires all-new body shops.

所以這是一個絕對全新的架構，需要全新的車身車間。

So when we take downtime at certain facilities, it's because we're either converting or constructing new body shops to facilitate this launch.

因此，當我們在某些​​工廠停工時，是因為我們正在改造或建造新的車身車間以促進此次發布。

And we've been opportunistic around doing that around holiday periods so that you can get extra time to make these transitions without a full impact on downtime.

我們一直在假期期間抓住機會這樣做，以便您可以獲得額外的時間來進行這些轉換，而不會完全影響停機時間。

So again, taking advantage of Christmastime, and leading into Q1, we've taken that opportunity with this transition.

因此，再次利用聖誕節期間，並進入第一季度，我們抓住了這次過渡的機會。

As I said, back in January, we expect the unmitigated impact of launch on volume for the next-generation truck in 2018 to be about 130,000 units.

正如我在一月份所說的那樣，我們預計下一代卡車的推出對 2018 年銷量的影響將達到約 13 萬輛。

We've tried to leg that in over the 2017-2018 time frame by taking, again, opportunistic downtime to do the work that we needed to do at the facilities.

我們試圖在 2017 年至 2018 年的時間範圍內，再次利用機會性的停工時間來完成我們需要在設施中完成的工作。

In addition, we will be launching this year and we're in process right now of building what we call the Oshawa shuttle, where we're taking bodies from Fort Wayne through the old body shop, shipping those to Canada and painting and assembling trucks there, which will fill about half of that gap.

此外，我們將於今年啟動，目前正在建造我們所謂的奧沙瓦班車，我們將透過舊車身車間從韋恩堡運送屍體，將其運送到加拿大，並對卡車進行噴漆和組裝那裡，這將填補大約一半的空白。

So that's a mitigating action, to take a pretty significant headwind of 130,000 units and, in essence, mitigate half of it.

因此，這是一項緩解措施，可以承受 130,000 單位的相當大的阻力，並且實質上減輕了一半的阻力。

And we're quite confident that that's going to turn out to be a benefit for us in 2018.

我們非常有信心這將在 2018 年為我們帶來好處。

Again, this is a massive level of change in our 4 facilities with an all-new architecture.

同樣，這對我們的 4 個設施來說是一次巨大的改變，採用了全新的架構。

And we're going to have to manage this and execute this flawlessly over the next couple of years.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們將必須管理並完美地執行這一點。

And so far, so good.

到目前為止，一切都很好。

Your next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛·坦貝裡諾（David Tamberrino）。

Want to talk a little bit about the solid results this year with free cash flow coming down.

想談談今年自由現金流下降帶來的穩健業績。

Obviously, from '17 to '18, you're going to have that be flat year-over-year again.

顯然，從 17 年到 18 年，這一數字將再次與去年同期持平。

But as we head into '19, is there any reason to think that we can't get back up to that pro forma $8 billion that you laid out for 2016?

但當我們進入 19 年時，是否有任何理由認為我們無法恢復到您為 2016 年制定的預計 80 億美元？

I think '19 might be a little bit premature for that, David.

我認為 19 年可能還為時過早，大衛。

Again, this is early days, right?

再說一遍，現在還為時過早，對吧？

But going back to what I talked about earlier, what's going to drive kind of moving off the run rate that we're at right now into what we talked about before, it's going to be as we cycle through our heavy CapEx cycle.

但回到我之前談到的，是什麼將推動我們現在的運行速度轉變為我們之前談到的，這將是在我們經歷沉重的資本支出週期時。

We're launching and starting the launch of the light duties and the T1 this year.

今年我們將推出輕型任務車和 T1。

Next year, we still have HDs and then the full-sized SUVs, and we're launching GEM as well in '19.

明年，我們仍然有 HD，然後是全尺寸 SUV，我們也將在 19 年推出 GEM。

So I would say that we need to cycle through '18, '19 capital spending, and then we'll start to see a meaningful decrease in that beyond the '19 time frame.

所以我想說，我們需要循環瀏覽「18」、「19」的資本支出，然後我們將開始看到「19」時間範圍之外的資本支出出現有意義的下降。

And I think that would be kind of the trigger point to see that inflection.

我認為這將是看到這種拐點的觸發點。

I mean, again, very early days and all premised on kind of the environment we're operating in right now.

我的意思是，在很早的時候，一切都以我們現在所處的環境為前提。

Yes, that's fair.

是的，這很公平。

I mean, just kind of picking through the results and thinking about some of the positives from an adjusted EBIT perspective, things like warranty expense.

我的意思是，只是挑選結果並從調整後的息稅前利潤角度思考一些積極的方面，例如保固費用。

I mean, just trying to understand what's going to drop through that could maybe give you better free cash flow than kind of what you're guiding to for '18 and then sort of picking up into '19.

我的意思是，只是想了解一下會發生什麼，也許會給你帶來更好的自由現金流，而不是你在 18 年指導的，然後在 19 年有所回升。

Yes.

是的。

And let's talk about warranty for just a second.

讓我們談談保固問題。

Clearly, a good tailwind in 2017 from a P&L perspective.

顯然，從損益表的角度來看，2017 年是一個好的順風車。

The drivers of that, half of that was kind of an absence of reserve adjustments that we took in 2016, and half of it was what we were seeing come through in base warranty, extended warranty experience, which resulted in an adjustment to our reserves but then on a -- the go-forward accrual.

造成這種情況的原因，一半是我們在 2016 年沒有進行儲備金調整，一半是我們在基本保固、延長保固體驗方面看到的結果，這導致我們對儲備金進行了調整，但然後是前進應計。

I think the cash impact of that bleeds in over time because you're adjusting reserves and the repairs.

我認為隨著時間的推移，這種影響的現金影響會逐漸顯現，因為你正在調整儲備和維修。

Obviously, warranties extend for 3 to 5 years.

顯然，保固期延長 3 至 5 年。

So that would be another area that we would expect to see an improvement in the cash associated with that but probably beyond 2018.

因此，這將是我們預計與之相關的現金有所改善的另一個領域，但可能會在 2018 年之後出現。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just following up on a line of questioning earlier.

然後只是跟進之前的一系列問題。

I think, Mary, you were saying generating about 1 million miles per month with the test fleet that you have.

瑪麗，我想您是說您擁有的測試車隊每月可行駛約 100 萬英里。

How much are you augmenting that real-world mileage with simulated miles?

您透過模擬里程將現實世界里程增加了多少？

And does that grow over time?

隨著時間的推移，這種情況會增加嗎？

And how much incremental expense does that really weigh on the P&L and CapEx for the autonomous development?

這到底對自主開發的損益和資本支出產生了多少增量費用？

So just to be clear, we have about 100 vehicles.

需要明確的是，我們大約有 100 輛車。

We'll be growing that fleet of the Gen 2, Gen 3, getting to 1 million miles a month.

我們將擴大第 2 代、第 3 代的車隊數量，使其每月行駛里程達到 100 萬英里。

That's not there yet, I just want to be clear on that.

目前還沒有，我只是想澄清這一點。

But we are absolutely supplementing and doing quite a bit of simulation both here and in San Francisco using the experiences that we have or the miles that we're capturing and the work that we've done in that space.

但我們絕對會在這裡和舊金山利用我們擁有的經驗或我們捕獲的里程以及我們在該領域所做的工作來補充和進行大量模擬。

So I can't give you the specific number of simulated miles that we've done, but I will tell you, it's very significant.

所以我無法告訴你我們已經完成的模擬里程的具體數量，但我會告訴你，這非常重要。

Okay.

好的。

Is there any rule of thumb or ratio we should be thinking about?

我們是否應該考慮任何經驗法則或比率？

I know -- I'd say one of your larger competitors, it's a very scaled number, but they were doing maybe 3 million miles overnight with some of their compute power.

我知道——我會說你的一個較大的競爭對手，這是一個非常大規模的數字，但他們利用他們的一些計算能力在一夜之間行駛了 300 萬英里。

So any color you can kind of give us there from a ratio of what you would think you need on simulated miles versus real-world miles could be useful.

因此，您可以根據您認為模擬里程與真實里程所需的比率為我們提供的任何顏色都可能有用。

I don't have the specifics on that.

我沒有這方面的具體情況。

We can look into that.

我們可以調查一下。

I don't know if we've come out and said exactly how much we're doing from a simulations perspective.

我不知道我們是否已經明確表示我們從模擬的角度做了多少工作。

I would say, I think when you look at the real performance that's happening, look at the rate of improvement, and there was just a study that came out where the substantial rate of improvement we had from disengagements and also the number of miles we traveled, I think, is pretty significant.

我想說，我認為當你看看正在發生的真實表現時，看看改進率，剛剛有一項研究表明，我們從脫離接觸中獲得的實質性改進率以及我們行駛的英里數，我認為，非常重要。

So I think all of that comes together with the real measures of what we're seeing.

所以我認為所有這些都與我們所看到的實際衡量標準結合在一起。

And again, in a very complex urban environment, we saw a 63% reduction in disengagements from '16 to '17, and also, the average monthly miles per disengagement improved over 2,500%.

同樣，在非常複雜的城市環境中，我們發現從 16 年到 17 年，脫離接觸減少了 63%，而且每次脫離接觸的平均每月里程數提高了 2,500% 以上。

So very significant when you look at what we're doing with the miles we're experiencing and learning from in San Francisco, added with the simulation.

當你看到我們在舊金山經歷和學習的里程所做的事情以及模擬時，這是非常重要的。

So I think it all comes together in those numbers, which I think is probably a better thing to look at.

因此，我認為所有這些都集中在這些數字中，我認為這可能是更好看的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

I had a couple of questions remaining.

我還有幾個問題要問。

One is just, could you clarify what the Korea losses are running at right now within GMI?

一是，您能澄清一下 GMI 中韓國目前的損失情況嗎？

We don't report country-level profitability, Rod.

羅德，我們不報告國家層級的獲利能力。

So sorry.

很抱歉。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe just switching gears to North America, obviously, pretty impressive pricing in ATPs.

也許只是轉向北美，顯然，ATP 的定價相當令人印象深刻。

And I'm wondering if you can clarify, you've given us some of the components, but when you think about the net outlook for 2018, you said components for a crossover is positive, obviously some weakness in the carryover.

我想知道您是否可以澄清一下，您已經向我們提供了一些組成部分，但是當您考慮 2018 年的淨前景時，您說交叉的組成部分是積極的，顯然結轉方面存在一些弱點。

And it sounded like you're assuming higher subvention for a higher rate environment.

聽起來您似乎在為更高的利率環境假設更高的補貼。

The unusual thing this year is that you've got pretty tight inventories on the trucks, which I presume could help mitigate some of the normal incentives that you have on the runout.

今年不尋常的事情是，卡車庫存相當緊張，我認為這可能有助於減輕一些正常的缺貨激勵。

Any thoughts on how we should be thinking about your positioning for net price?

關於我們應該如何考慮你們的淨價定位有什麼想法嗎？

I think overall, net price will be positive in '18 versus '17.

我認為總體而言，與 17 年相比，18 年淨價將為正值。

The benefit -- the tailwinds will be crossover pricing, a full year of that and really cycling off a pretty low transaction price, a pretty low, pretty tough pricing environment for us given the age of those products into the new products.

好處——順風將是交叉定價，一整年，並且真正擺脫相當低的交易價格，考慮到這些產品進入新產品的年齡，對我們來說相當低、相當艱難的定價環境。

So that'll be a tailwind, and the new truck will be a tailwind.

所以這將是一個順風，而新卡車也將是一個順風。

I think -- it's February 6, but those combined will be greater than the carryover headwinds.

我認為，現在是 2 月 6 日，但這些因素加起來將比結轉的逆風更大。

And you bring up a good point.

你提出了一個很好的觀點。

Clearly, we ended the year very lean from a truck inventory perspective, and our production is going to be lower this year versus last year.

顯然，從卡車庫存的角度來看，我們今年的產量非常精簡，今年的產量將低於去年。

So we expect to continue to run pretty lean inventories on a go-forward basis.

因此，我們預計未來將繼續保持相當精簡的庫存。

And that will help mitigate some of the truck challenges as we kind of run through that.

當我們解決這個問題時，這將有助於緩解一些卡車挑戰。

But net-net, overall positive, with new being greater than carryover headwind.

但淨淨值整體呈現正向趨勢，新股逆風大於結轉逆風。

And presumably, you've incorporated some rate subvention associated with that 75 basis points you plotted.

據推測，您已經納入了與您繪製的 75 個基點相關的一些利率補貼。

Is that correct?

這是正確的嗎？

Well, we've certainly built that into our baseline set of assumptions, the 75 basis point increase in rates as well as a continuation of kind of what we've seen over the last number of years as incentive spend as a percentage of transaction price.

嗯，我們當然已經將其納入我們的基準假設中，即利率上漲 75 個基點，以及我們在過去幾年中看到的激勵支出佔交易價格百分比的延續。

We've seen 60 to 100 bps on a year-over-year basis increase in that.

我們看到該數字年增了 60 至 100 個基點。

So that's kind of the environment we're assuming is going to continue, a tough pricing environment in the U.S.

因此，我們假設這種環境將持續下去，也就是美國艱難的定價環境。

Great.

偉大的。

And just lastly, you've given in the past a really helpful analysis that basically helped us bridge to breakeven at like an 11 million SAAR.

最後，您過去給出了非常有用的分析，基本上幫助我們在 1100 萬 SAAR 的水平上實現了盈虧平衡。

Just -- could you remind us what some of the cost elements are in your downside scenario?

只是——您能提醒我們在您的不利情況下有哪些成本因素嗎？

What are the levers that you can pull from a fixed cost perspective, Tier 2, ad budgets, things like that?

從固定成本、第二層、廣告預算等角度來看，您可以使用哪些槓桿？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Again, this is -- the proof is -- this will be a very, very detailed assessment that we would have to go through.

再說一次，這——證據是——這將是我們必須進行的非常非常詳細的評估。

But if you look at our workforce today in the U.S. specifically, much more variable than it was in the past.

但如果你具體看看今天美國的勞動力，你會發現比過去更多。

We've got roughly 25% Tier 2 and a few percentage points of temporary, so call it 30% overall.

我們有大約 25% 的二級和幾個臨時百分點，所以稱之為總體 30%。

Through 2019, we have no caps.

到 2019 年，我們沒有上限。

We expected that to grow closer to 40% to 50%.

我們預計這一數字將增長至 40% 至 50%。

So in theory, at a system level, if there was a 10% or 15% reduction in volume, we should be able to take 10% to 15% of the labor-related costs out over a relatively short period of time.

所以從理論上講，從系統層面來說，如果產量減少10%、15%，我們應該能夠在相對較短的時間內消除10%到15%的勞動相關成本。

So that's one fundamental driver.

這是一個基本驅動因素。

Our manufacturing cost, for modeling purposes, would come out at the same pace as volume.

出於建模目的，我們的製造成本將與產量同步成長。

Number two, we would obviously reduce marketing expense, marketing expense over a baseline level is highly variable, right?

第二，我們顯然會減少行銷費用，行銷費用在基線水平上變化很大，對嗎？

And if you just tag that to a percent of net sales, if there's a 20% reduction in volume, you could reduce marketing expense by at least 20%.

如果你只是將其標記為淨銷售額的百分比，那麼如果銷量減少 20%，你就可以減少至少 20% 的行銷費用。

And clearly, another significant component would be our compensation structure, which is largely variable.

顯然，另一個重要組成部分是我們的薪酬結構，它在很大程度上是可變的。

And if we're making less money, we're paying less variable compensation.

如果我們賺的錢減少了，我們支付的可變薪酬也會減少。

Those 3 items in combination -- and obviously, there would be opportunities on the margin, not insignificant but opportunities on the margin.

這三項結合起來——顯然，邊際機會是存在的，不是微不足道的，而是邊際機會。

Those 3 will drive $3 billion to $4 billion roughly of fixed cost opportunity or cost opportunity in a typical downturn.

這三者將帶來約 30 億至 40 億美元的固定成本機會或典型經濟低迷時期的成本機會。

And that's what's built into our U.S. breakeven, our North American breakeven at a U.S. industry level of 10 million to 11 million units.

這就是我們在美國的損益平衡點，我們在美國產業 1,000 萬至 1,100 萬台水準上的北美損益平衡點。

Our last question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

A couple of questions, one managerial and one more around housekeeping on accounting.

有幾個問題，一個是管理問題，另一個是有關會計的內務管理問題。

The managerial one is with the cost reduction efforts, both for material and employee related, you haven't made a big deal of -- unlike some other firms that were reducing costs of big, high-level programs that's full of consultants and program offices.

管理方面的努力是降低成本，無論是材料成本還是員工成本，你並沒有大肆宣傳——與其他一些公司不同，這些公司正在降低大型、高水平專案的成本，這些專案充滿了顧問和專案辦公室。

But could you give us a sense of how the material cost saves and how the employee cost saves show up in terms of managerial actions that [moved]?

但是您能否讓我們了解一下材料成本節省以及員工成本節省如何體現在[移動]的管理措施中？

Are there ongoing targets?

有持續的目標嗎？

What are the key areas?

重點領域有哪些？

How do you kind of balance getting the cost out without kind of going back to the old bean-counting reputation of GM?

你如何平衡成本，而又不回到通用汽車過去的數數聲譽？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

And this all started back in 2013, 2014.

而這一切還要從2013年、2014年說起。

And I think we laid that out at the Deutsche Bank conference, the journey we've been on when we looked at the business and looked at the opportunities for the business and where it should be.

我認為我們在德意志銀行會議上闡述了這一點，當我們審視業務、審視業務機會以及它應該在哪裡時，我們一直在經歷這個過程。

And we did a lot of benchmarking.

我們做了很多基準測試。

We did benchmarking around our material costs and the GM penalty we were carrying.

我們圍繞著我們的材料成本和我們所承受的通用汽車處罰進行了基準測試。

We did benchmarking around harbor manufacturing costs, benchmarking around world-class levels of SG&A, and we established benchmarks for all of the leads in those areas.

我們圍繞港口製造成本、世界一流的SG&A水平進行了基準測試，並為這些領域的所有領導者建立了基準。

And we have fundamentally been executing to those benchmark areas since 2014.

自 2014 年以來，我們基本上一直在執行這些基準領域。

Beyond that, we enabled the achievement of some of these benchmarks through a couple of important initiatives that we've launched: Operational Excellence and Global Business Solutions.

除此之外，我們也透過推出的幾項重要措施實現了其中一些基準：卓越營運和全球業務解決方案。

Between the 2 of those, one was GBS, it has taken in a significant amount of work globally in the SG&A space that was very fragmented and not optimal and efficient and brought it under one roof, common processes, common systems, end to end, and drove significant savings in the more transactional side of the business.

在這兩者之間，其中之一是GBS，它在全球範圍內承擔了大量的SG&A 空間工作，這些工作非常分散，不是最佳和高效的，並將其置於同一個屋簷下，通用流程，通用系統，端到端，並在業務的交易方面節省了大量成本。

Operational Excellence is the way we do business now.

卓越營運是我們現在開展業務的方式。

When you look at a cost challenge or a business challenge and at-the-market challenge, we use Operational Excellence tools, Six Sigma, Lean, the whole toolbox to really, at an enterprise level, drive from a -- where we are today to a target.

當您考慮成本挑戰或業務挑戰和市場挑戰時，我們使用卓越營運工具、六西格瑪、精益以及整個工具箱，在企業層面真正推動我們今天所處的位置到一個目標。

And I think we do this in a very, very disciplined way.

我認為我們以非常非常有紀律的方式來做這件事。

It gets a lot of visibility, the $6.5 billion, by key driver.

它獲得了很高的知名度，價值 65 億美元，主要由主要驅動力推動。

We review it with the management team and Mary on a regular basis.

我們定期與管理團隊和瑪麗一起審查。

We review it with the Board of Directors.

我們與董事會一起審查。

So it -- and I think that as opposed to a consulting/bean-counting exercise, you're seeing it show up in the bottom line results as we continue to generate strong performance in an environment that is tougher than what we expected over the last couple of years.

所以，我認為，與諮詢/清點活動相反，你會看到它出現在底線結果中，因為我們在一個比我們過去預期更艱難的環境中繼續取得強勁的業績。

So -- and we're going to continue to do that.

所以——我們將繼續這樣做。

Yes.

是的。

I would just add to that, it's really driving a culture of everyone understanding that we need to continuously improve processes.

我想補充一點，這確實推動了一種文化，讓每個人都明白我們需要不斷改進流程。

And also, when we see challenges, we've got to figure out ways to overcome them.

而且，當我們看到挑戰時，我們必須找出克服它們的方法。

So that's the mindset that Chuck's talking about.

這就是查克所說的心態。

When there's a challenge or a target, we need to make sure we have a plan to address it.

當存在挑戰或目標時，我們需要確保有計劃來解決它。

And every employee has the tools to -- outside of structured tools like Six Sigma, to go after those.

除了六西格瑪等結構化工具之外，每個員工都擁有工具來追求這些目標。

So it's more of an ongoing culture than a onetime consultant exercise?

那麼這更像是一種持續的文化，而不是一次性的顧問活動？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

I mean, and the $6.5 billion that we set up a few years ago and talked about, purposefully, Mary and I talked about that externally to put the stake in the ground so that we would hold ourselves accountable to it and be transparent around that commitment.

我的意思是，我們幾年前設立並有意談論的 65 億美元，瑪麗和我在外部談論了這一點，以便將股份落實到位，以便我們對其負責並圍繞該承諾保持透明。

And I would expect that, as I said earlier, once we cycle to that, there'll be a next round that you -- that we want to be held accountable to and that people should be able to track to the P&L.

我希望，正如我之前所說，一旦我們循環到這一點，就會有下一輪，我們希望對此負責，並且人們應該能夠追蹤損益表。

We wanted cost savings that would roll through to the P&L, and again, we're seeing that.

我們希望節省的成本能夠計入損益表，我們再次看到了這一點。

Okay.

好的。

A couple of accounting questions.

幾個會計問題。

One, any impact of the FASB accounting rule change around net periodic pension costs in terms of North America EBIT where you're generating pension income?

第一，FASB 會計規則的變更對您產生退休金收入的北美息稅前利潤（以北美息稅前利潤而言）對定期退休金淨成本有何影響？

And second around the $9 billion write-down of deferred tax assets.

其次是 90 億美元的遞延稅資產減記。

You still have about $24 billion left.

您還剩下約 240 億美元。

Can you give us a sense of when you, given your business plan, would likely flip to becoming a U.S. taxpayer -- cash taxpayer?

根據您的商業計劃，您能否告訴我們您何時可能轉為美國納稅人—現金納稅人？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

On the first question, no impact on North American EBIT.

關於第一個問題，對北美息稅前利潤沒有影響。

It's just geography, all -- both above the EBIT line, so no impact.

這只是地理因素——都高於息稅前利潤線，所以沒有影響。

And our -- I don't know where the $9 billion came from, but it was like $7 billion to -- for the impact of tax reform going from the statutory rate of 35% to 21% on our deferred tax assets.

我不知道這 90 億美元從何而來，但大概有 70 億美元用於稅收改革對我們的遞延稅資產的影響，從法定稅率 35% 降至 21%。

We have about $23 billion left after that adjustment.

調整後我們還剩下約 230 億美元。

And I would expect that we would remain a very low cash taxpaying position to the -- for the foreseeable future, 2022, '23 time frame.

我預計，在可預見的未來，也就是 2022 年、23 年的時間範圍內，我們的現金納稅狀況將維持非常低的水準。

Okay.

好的。

So any impact of tax reform on cash taxes would be well after that.

因此，稅改對現金稅的任何影響都將在那之後發生。

In the meantime, you're not a significant U.S. cash taxpayer.

同時，您並不是美國重要的現金納稅人。

Yes.

是的。

The way I would think about it is absent that, beyond '22, '23, we would start to move up into -- closer to a 35% range or 28% range.

我的想法是，在 22 年、23 年之後，我們將開始上升到接近 35% 或 28% 的範圍。

And now we're not going to -- it's a longer-term benefit for us from a cash taxpaying standpoint.

現在我們不會——從現金納稅的角度來看，這對我們來說是一個長期利益。

Right.

正確的。

Despite the GAAP adjustments?

儘管進行了公認會計準則調整？

Yes.

是的。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing comments.

我現在想將電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉（Mary Barra），請她發表結束語。

We'd like to thank everybody for participating today.

我們要感謝大家今天的參與。

I hope you see that GM is a stronger, more focused company than we were just a few years ago, and we have much more work to do.

我希望你們看到，與幾年前相比，通用汽車是一家更強大、更專注的公司，我們還有更多的工作要做。

In fact, just last week, we had our senior leadership team together to have -- so everybody is perfectly aligned on what we need to accomplish in 2018 and beyond.

事實上，就在上週，我們的高階領導團隊聚集在一起，以便每個人都對我們在 2018 年及以後需要完成的任務達成完全一致。

We recognize that our industry is changing rapidly.

我們認識到我們的行業正在迅速變化。

And with that, there are opportunities and there are also challenges.

隨之而來的是機遇，也有挑戰。

But as you look at the strategy that we've been executing, we believe that we will continue to capitalize on those opportunities, minimize the challenges and drive long-term shareholder value.

但當你看看我們一直在執行的策略時，我們相信我們將繼續利用這些機會，最大限度地減少挑戰並推動長期股東價值。

That's what we come to work for every day.

這就是我們每天上班的目的。

So thank you all for participating.

謝謝大家的參與。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。