Greenlight Capital Re Ltd (GLRE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for joining the Greenlight Capital Re fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to David Sigmon, Greenlight Re's General Counsel. You may begin.

感謝您參加 Greenlight Capital Re 第四季和 2024 年年終財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我很高興將電話轉給 Greenlight Re 的總法律顧問 David Sigmon。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning. I would like to remind you that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay following the conclusion of the event. An audio replay will also be available under the Investors section of the company's website at www.greenlightre.com. Joining us on the call today will be our Chief Executive Officer, Greg Richardson; Chairman of the Board, David Einhorn; and Chief Financial Officer, Faramarz Romer.

謝謝，早安。我想提醒您，本次電話會議正在錄音，會議結束後將提供重播。音訊重播也將在公司網站 www.greenlightre.com 的投資者部分提供。今天參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長 Greg Richardson；董事會主席 David Einhorn；和財務長 Faramarz Romer。

On behalf of the company, I'd like to remind you that forward-looking statements may be made during this call and are intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor Provisions of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements reflect the company's current expectations, estimates and predictions about future results and are subject to risks and uncertainties. As a result, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied.

我謹代表公司提醒您，本次電話會議中可能會做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述應受到聯邦證券法安全港條款的約束。這些前瞻性陳述反映了公司目前對未來結果的預期、估計和預測，並受風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

For more information on the risks and other factors that may impact future performance, investors should review the periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time. Additionally, management may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliations to these measures can be found in the company's filings with the SEC, including the company's recently filed Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.

有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告。此外，管理階層可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施的對帳可以在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到，包括公司最近提交的截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表。

The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. With that, it is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg.

該公司不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。現在我很高興將電話轉給格雷格。

Thanks, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. To start off, I would like to thank everyone that attended our Investor Day presentation in New York City last November, where we provided additional color on Greenlight Re's progress and our go-forward strategy. I'm excited about Greenlight Re's future, notwithstanding the fourth quarter results.

謝謝，大衛。大家早安，感謝大家今天的參與。首先，我要感謝所有參加我們去年 11 月在紐約舉行的投資者日演講的人，在演講中我們詳細介紹了 Greenlight Re 的進展和未來策略。儘管第四季的表現不佳，但我對 Greenlight Re 的未來仍感到興奮。

The fourth quarter of 2024 was challenging for Greenlight Re. We reported a net underwriting loss of $18 million or a combined ratio of 112.1% and investment loss from Solasglas of $8.8 million or negative 1.9%, driving a net loss for the quarter of $27.4 million. Our underwriting loss was driven by a combination of cat activity in the quarter and prior-year development.

2024 年第四季對於 Greenlight Re 來說充滿挑戰。我們報告淨承保損失為 1,800 萬美元，綜合虧損率為 112.1%，Solasglas 的投資損失為 880 萬美元，即負 1.9%，導致本季淨虧損達到 2,740 萬美元。我們的承保損失是由於本季的巨災活動和去年同期的發展共同造成的。

On the cat side, we booked $17.6 million of cat losses in quarter four, 2024, with Hurricane Milton being the most material at $7.5 million. With regard to prior year development, the major driver was a $15 million increase in our Russia-Ukraine conflict reserves, linked to the confiscation of aircraft.

在巨災損失方面，我們在 2024 年第四季計入了 1,760 萬美元的巨災損失，其中颶風米爾頓造成的損失最為嚴重，達 750 萬美元。參照前一年的發展，主要的驅動力是我們的俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突儲備金增加了 1500 萬美元，與飛機的沒收有關。

We booked an initial provision for the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the first quarter of 2022, and that provision remained broadly flat over the intervening quarters. However, in Q4 of last year, following the commencement of high court litigation in London, we became aware of increased settlement activity. Based on our analysis of various legal claims and industry sources and in anticipation of formal claim notifications, we decided to get ahead of this issue and to strengthen our IBNR provision.

我們在 2022 年第一季為俄羅斯-​​烏克蘭衝突計提了初步準備金，該準備金在隨後的幾個季度中基本上保持穩定。然而，去年第四季度，隨著倫敦高等法院訴訟的開始，我們注意到和解活動增加。根據我們對各種法律索賠和行業來源的分析，並預期正式索賠通知，我們決定先解決此問題並加強我們的 IBNR 規定。

Our fourth quarter 2024 underwriting results turned our solid performance for the first three quarters of the year into an underwriting loss of $8.2 million or a combined ratio of 101.4% for the full year 2024. Net income for the year was $42.8 million, which generated a 7.2% increase in fully diluted book value per share to $17.95.

我們的 2024 年第四季核保結果將我們今年前三個季度的穩健表現轉變為 2024 年全年 820 萬美元的承保損失或 101.4% 的綜合比率。全年淨收入為 4,280 萬美元，推動每股完全攤薄帳面價值成長 7.2% 至 17.95 美元。

One item I would like to highlight in our earnings release and our 10-K filing is that for the first time, we have split our financial results into two segments. Open Market and Innovations, which reflects how I think about and oversee the business.

我想在我們的收益報告和 10-K 文件中強調的一件事是，我們首次將財務結果分為兩個部分。開放市場和創新，反映了我如何思考和監督業務。

Historically, we have spoken of the importance of our Innovations unit and the key part it plays in our growth strategy. Our Innovations segment generated a combined ratio of 95.8% in 2024 on $94.7 million of gross written premium. We believe this new disclosure will be valuable to shareholders and other key stakeholders going forward.

從歷史上看，我們曾談到創新部門的重要性及其在我們的成長策略中所扮演的關鍵角色。我們的創新部門在 2024 年的綜合成本率為 95.8%，毛承保保費為 9,470 萬美元。我們相信，這項新的揭露將對未來的股東和其他主要利害關係人具有價值。

Turning to 1/1 renewals. The 1/1 renewal season is key for Greenlight Re as over 50% of our business incepts on January 1. We are very pleased with how [1/1/25] progressed. Market conditions remain very attractive despite softening in certain classes, and we took advantage of those conditions to grow our business in key areas. I will provide an overview of our [1/1/25] book in a few of these key areas.

轉向 1/1 續訂。1/1 續約季對 Greenlight Re 來說至關重要，因為我們超過 50% 的業務是在 1 月 1 日開始的。我們對 [1/1/25] 的進展感到非常滿意。儘管某些類別的市場有所疲軟，但市場條件仍然非常有吸引力，我們利用這些條件在關鍵領域發展業務。我將從幾個關鍵領域概述我們的 [1/1/25] 書。

Generally, our fund at Lloyd's or FAL book incepts at 1/1. We have been a material player in this market for a few years, and we are optimistic for the prospects of Lloyd's in 2025 after several years of material rate increases and strong performance. This year, we expect our FAL book to grow by approximately 25%, given the attractive opportunities available to us.

一般來說，我們在勞合社或FAL的基金帳面收益為1/1。我們在這個市場上扮演重要角色數年，經過數年的重要費率上漲和強勁表現，我們對勞合社 2025 年的前景充滿信心。鑑於我們面臨的誘人機遇，我們預計今年的 FAL 訂單量將成長約 25%。

A material element of our specialty book renews at 1/1. In general, the specialty market remains disciplined with terms and conditions being maintained and some modest softening on rates from 2.5% to 5% down. However, the specialty market was very competitive on signings, with many of our competitors looking to grow in this space. We expect our 1/1 specialty book to grow modestly.

我們的特色書籍材料元素於1/1更新。整體而言，專業市場仍保持紀律，條款和條件保持不變，利率適度下調 2.5% 至 5%。然而，專業市場在簽約方面競爭非常激烈，我們的許多競爭對手都希望在這一領域實現成長。我們預計我們的 1/1 專業圖書將會適度成長。

The third element of our book with a strong 1/1 focus is our property book. We saw some weakening in the property line, and we estimate rates are down on average 5% to 7.5%, with reductions on our XoL accounts larger than on our quota share accounts. Despite this, the market remains attractive, and we expect this portfolio to grow by approximately 10% over 2024.

我們的帳簿的第三個元素以 1/1 為重點，那就是我們的財產帳簿。我們發現房地產線減弱，我們估計利率平均下降 5% 至 7.5%，其中 XoL 帳戶的降幅大於配額帳戶。儘管如此，市場仍然具有吸引力，我們預計該投資組合在 2024 年將成長約 10%。

Our North Atlantic hurricane exposure on a 1-in-250 occurrence basis increased by 16% to $116.3 million, reflecting this increased volume. Our Innovations portfolio is not heavily weighted towards 1/1. Rather, it is more evenly spread throughout the year. For the business that did renew on 1/1, we saw strong growth and relatively flat rates.

以每 250 次發生一次的北大西洋颶風計算，我們的風險敞口增加了 16%，達到 1.163 億美元，反映了這一數量的增加。我們的創新投資組合併不太偏向 1/1。相反，它在全年的分佈更加均勻。對於 1/1 續約的業務，我們看到了強勁的成長和相對穩定的費率。

Since 1/1, we have all witnessed the tragic human and economic impact of the Los Angeles wildfires. It is early stages, but we estimate the insurance industry loss at $40 billion to $50 billion and anticipate Greenlight’ s share of this loss will be $15 million to $30 million as we are somewhat underweight in property compared to the industry.

自 1 月 1 日起，我們都目睹了洛杉磯山火對人類和經濟造成的悲慘影響。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們估計保險業的損失為 400 億至 500 億美元，並且預計 Greenlight 所佔損失份額將為 1500 萬至 3000 萬美元，因為與整個行業相比，我們的房地產投資比重略低。

As we look ahead towards 2025, we are optimistic about the opportunities ahead. Over the past year, we have strengthened our organization, processes, and balance sheet. While we saw modest softening at 1/1, global uncertainty and losses such as the Los Angeles wildfires serve as a reminder of the importance of reinsurance and adequate rates to support the risks that we assume.

展望 2025 年，我們對未來的機會充滿樂觀。在過去的一年裡，我們加強了組織、流程和資產負債表。雖然我們看到 1/1 的溫和走軟，但全球不確定性和洛杉磯森林大火等損失提醒我們再保險和足夠的利率來支撐我們承擔的風險的重要性。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to David.

現在我想把電話轉給大衛。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. The Solasglas fund returned negative 1.9% in the fourth quarter. Our long portfolio detracted 3% on a gross basis, while the short and macro portfolios contributed 1.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早安。Solasglas基金第四季回報率為負1.9%。我們的長期投資組合總體上減少了 3%，而短期和宏觀投資組合分別貢獻了 1.2% 和 0.1%。

During the quarter, the S&P 500 Index advanced 2.4%. The largest positive contributors were long investments in Peloton Interactive and Kyndryl Holdings and a newly established arbitrage position in MicroStrategy. The largest detractors were long investments in Green Brick Partners and Solvay and a short position in a profitless technology company.

本季度，標普 500 指數上漲 2.4%。最大的積極貢獻者是對 Peloton Interactive 和 Kyndryl Holdings 的長期投資以及在 MicroStrategy 中新建立的套利頭寸。最大的負面影響是對 Green Brick Partners 和 Solvay 的長期投資以及對一家無利可圖的科技公司的空頭部位。

Peloton Interactive advanced 86% during the quarter. With this quarterly update, the company demonstrated progress in its cost-cutting initiatives and reaffirmed its commitment to prioritizing profitability. Peloton also announced the hiring of a well-regarded CEO, who began his tenure with the company around the beginning of the year.

Peloton Interactive 本季上漲了 86%。透過本季度更新，該公司展示了其在削減成本措施方面的進展，並重申了其優先考慮盈利能力的承諾。Peloton 還宣布聘請一位備受推崇的首席執行官，他於今年年初開始在公司任職。

Kyndryl Holdings advanced 51% during the quarter. In its most recent quarterly update, Kyndryl announced another set of positive results, raised its guidance, and showed significant improvement in signings. The company also reaffirmed its positive fiscal 2025 outlook, with constant currency revenues now expected to return to growth by the fiscal fourth quarter and margins set to again improve.

Kyndryl Holdings 本季上漲了 51%。在最近的季度更新中，Kyndryl 公佈了另一組積極的結果，上調了預期，並顯示簽約情況有顯著改善。該公司也重申了對 2025 財年的樂觀展望，預計到第四財季，固定匯率營收將恢復成長，利潤率也將再次提高。

Our new position shorting levered ETFs that aim to double the daily return of MicroStrategy stock, which is partially offset by owning MicroStrategy stock, was our third largest positive contributor. Green Brick shares fell over 32% over the quarter, giving back most of the gains from the third quarter as rising interest rates weighed on the sector. In November, we increased the size of our short basket of homebuilder stocks, which enabled us to offset about half Green Brick's negative contribution for the quarter.

我們的新倉位做空槓桿 ETF 旨在使 MicroStrategy 股票的每日回報率翻一番，而持有 MicroStrategy 股票則部分抵消了這一回報率，這是我們第三大積極貢獻者。由於利率上升給該行業帶來壓力，Green Brick 股價本季下跌逾 32%，回吐了第三季的大部分漲幅。11 月份，我們增加了房屋建築商股票的空頭部位，這使我們能夠抵消 Green Brick 本季約一半的負面貢獻。

Solvay declined 12% over the quarter. The company announced quarterly results that mostly met expectations but allowed for skeptics to debate the quality of the earnings. Also, there were concerns that both demand and pricing for Solvay soda ash products had not picked up as hoped around year-end.

索爾維本季股價下跌了 12%。該公司公佈的季度業績基本上符合預期，但也引發了懷疑者對獲利品質的爭論。此外，人們擔心索爾維純鹼產品的需求和價格在年底前都沒有像預期的那樣回升。

In addition to the MicroStrategy arbitrage position, we established a new medium-sized position in CNH Industrial, an agricultural equipment company. At year-end, our net exposure was about 33%, which was roughly the same as it was at the beginning of the fourth quarter. We're comfortable maintaining lower gross and net exposure as the market not only remains historically expensive, but the new administration in Washington is creating extraordinary volatility by a constant barrage of news flow.

除了微策略套利部位外，我們還在農業設備公司 CNH Industrial 建立了新的中型部位。截至年底，我們的淨敞口約為33％，與第四季初的水平大致相同。我們願意維持較低的總風險敞口和淨風險敞口，因為市場不僅仍處於歷史高位，而且華盛頓的新政府正透過不斷的新聞流製造出極大的波動。

The Solasglas fund returned 9.8% in 2024 compared to a 25% return of the S&P 500. Solasglas returned 2.8% in January and 1.4% in February, bringing the 2025 year-to-date through the end of February to 4.2%. Net exposure in the investment portfolio was approximately 30% at the end of February. We don't usually discuss performance intra-month, but in light of the sharp downturn in equity markets so far this month, we're pleased to report that we had a solidly profitable return through last night.

2024 年，Solasglas 基金的報酬率為 9.8%，而標準普爾 500 指數的報酬率為 25%。Solasglas 1 月份回報率為 2.8%，2 月份回報率為 1.4%，截至 2 月底的 2025 年年初至今回報率為 4.2%。截至二月底，投資組合的淨敞口約為30%。我們通常不會討論月內的表現，但鑑於本月迄今為止股市的急劇下滑，我們很高興地報告，昨晚我們獲得了穩健的盈利回報。

While we ended 2024 with disappointing results, we managed to grow fully diluted book value per share, our key metric, by 7.2%. Despite the Los Angeles wildfire losses, we started 2025 well, and I'm optimistic about the year ahead. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Faramarz to discuss the financial results in more detail.

儘管 2024 年的業績令人失望，但我們成功將關鍵指標每股完全攤薄帳面價值提高了 7.2%。儘管洛杉磯遭受了山火的損失，但我們在 2025 年的開局還是不錯的，我對未來的一年充滿樂觀。現在我想將電話轉給 Faramarz，更詳細地討論財務結果。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. During the fourth quarter of 2024, Greenlight Re reported a net loss of $27.4 million or a loss of $0.81 per diluted share compared to net income of $17.6 million or $0.50 per diluted share during the fourth quarter of 2023. The underwriting loss of $18 million translated into a combined ratio of 112.1%.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早安。2024 年第四季，Greenlight Re 報告淨虧損為 2,740 萬美元，即每股攤薄虧損 0.81 美元，而 2023 年第四季淨收入為 1,760 萬美元，即每股攤薄虧損 0.50 美元。1800萬美元的承保損失導致綜合成本率為112.1%。

Fourth quarter cat losses added 11.9-percentage-points to our combined ratio, while the aviation reserve strengthening relating to the Russia-Ukraine conflict contributed 10.1-percentage-points of combined ratio. As Greg mentioned, we have revised our segment disclosures to present our results separately for the Open Market segment and the Innovation segment. For each of these segments, we now present the underwriting results and any investment income that is directly attributable to those segments.

第四季的巨災損失使我們的綜合比率增加了 11.9 個百分點，而與俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突有關的航空儲備增加則貢獻了 10.1 個百分點的綜合比率。正如格雷格所提到的，我們已經修改了我們的分部揭露，以分別展示公開市場分部和創新分部的業績。對於每個分部，我們現在列出承保績效以及任何直接歸屬於這些分部的投資收益。

For the Open Market segment, the investment income includes interest income on the collateral we have pledged to our Open Market cedents and any interest and investment income related to our funds at Lloyd's business. For our segment -- Innovations segment, the investment income includes interest on the collateral pledge to the Innovation cedents and any investment gains or losses from our private innovation’s investments.

對於公開市場部門，投資收益包括我們向公開市場分出人質押的抵押品的利息收入以及與我們在勞合社業務的資金相關的任何利息和投資收益。對於我們的部門—創新部門，投資收益包括對創新轉讓人的抵押質押利息以及我們私人創新投資的任何投資收益或損失。

We also allocate corporate and other expenses such as personnel costs and other overhead expenses that can be attributable to the Innovations investments operations. Any other income or expense that is not attributable to the two segments is included as corporate.

我們也分配可歸因於創新投資業務的公司和其他費用，例如人員成本和其他管理費用。任何不屬於上述兩個分部的其他收入或支出均計入企業部分。

As we have mentioned on previous calls, we nonrenewed and placed into runoff the sole Innovations property program due to the impact of underlying exposure to severe convective storms. That runoff business is also included under corporate. We believe the new segment reporting structure provides greater transparency and insight into the performance of our in-force business and aligns with how we manage and allocate our capital.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的那樣，由於受到嚴重對流風暴的影響，我們不再續簽唯一的創新財產計劃，並將其置於流失狀態。該流失業務也包含在公司業務中。我們相信，新的分部報告結構提供了更大的透明度和對我們現有業務表現的洞察力，並與我們管理和分配資本的方式保持一致。

Now let's turn to the underwriting results by segment. For the fourth quarter, the Open Market segment's net earned premiums increased 25% to $127.8 million, primarily related to the financial and specialty lines. The Open Market combined ratio for the fourth quarter was 111.1% compared to 90.9% for the same period in 2023. The impact of aviation losses relating to the Russia-Ukraine conflict accounted for 11.7 combined ratio points.

現在我們來看看各分部的核保結果。第四季度，公開市場部門的淨保費收入成長 25%，達到 1.278 億美元，主要與金融和專業險種有關。第四季公開市場綜合比率為 111.1%，而 2023 年同期為 90.9%。與俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突有關的航空損失的影響佔綜合比率點11.7。

The cat losses during the fourth quarter accounted for 13.8 combined ratio points, which by comparison, the cat activity during the same period in 2023 was more benign at three combined ratio points. Additionally, we increased our loss reserves on older years casualty business based on updated reporting from cedents and driven by inflationary trends. The reserve increases were partially offset by favorable loss development on the specialty line.

第四季的巨災損失佔綜合比率 13.8 個點，相較之下，2023 年同期的巨災活動較為溫和，綜合比率為 3 個點。此外，根據分保人的最新報告和通膨趨勢，我們增加了前幾年意外險業務的損失準備金。儲備金的增加被專業生產線上有利的虧損發展部分抵銷。

For the full year, Open Market segment's net earned premiums increased by 9.7% to $511.9 million, driven by growth in our property and specialty lines. We also grew the written premiums on our financial line. However, those premiums earn out over a longer time frame. For the full year 2024, the Open Market combined ratio was 99% compared to 89.6% in 2023. The cat losses in 2024 accounted for seven combined ratio points and prior-year loss development accounted for 2.9 combined ratio points.

全年來看，開放市場部門的淨保費收入成長 9.7%，達到 5.119 億美元，這主要得益於我們的財產險和專業險種的成長。我們的金融險承保保費也增加了。然而，這些保費需要在較長的時間內才能獲得回報。2024 年全年，公開市場綜合比率為 99%，而 2023 年為 89.6%。2024 年的巨災損失佔綜合比率 7 點，而去年的損失發展佔綜合比率 2.9 點。

Turning to our Innovation segment. For the fourth quarter, the net earned premiums decreased by $4.2 million or 18.1% to $19 million as we reduced our share on a multiline program. During the fourth quarter, we also put in place a whole account quota share retrocession of 28% of our innovations book.

轉向我們的創新部門。第四季度，由於我們減少了多線保險計劃中的份額，淨收入保費減少了 420 萬美元（即 18.1%）至 1,900 萬美元。在第四季度，我們也對創新帳簿的28%實施了整個帳戶配額份額回扣。

The Innovations combined ratio for the fourth quarter was 102.1% compared to 93.4% for the same period in 2023. The main driver of the higher combined ratio in the fourth quarter was adverse loss development on a multiline contract.

創新公司第四季的綜合比率為 102.1%，而 2023 年同期為 93.4%。第四季綜合成本率上升的主要原因是多線合約的不利損失。

For the full year, the Innovation segment's net earned premiums increased by 20.3% to $86.4 million, driven by growth in our specialty, casualty and multiline business as new programs were added. The Innovations combined ratio for the full year 2024 improved to 95.8% compared to 97.5% for 2023.

全年來看，創新部門的淨保費收入成長了 20.3%，達到 8,640 萬美元，這得益於我們的專業、意外和多線業務隨著新專案的增加而成長。2024 年全年創新綜合比率從 2023 年的 97.5% 改善至 95.8%。

While both our segments reported underwriting profits for full year 2024, the runoff business related to the homeowners property program generated a loss of $16.8 million, primarily due to the severe convective storms during 2024.

雖然我們的兩個部門都報告了 2024 年全年的承保利潤，但與房主財產計劃相關的流失業務產生了 1,680 萬美元的損失，這主要是由於 2024 年期間的嚴重對流風暴造成的。

For full year 2024, we reported a consolidated combined ratio of 101.4%, which generated a small underwriting loss of $8.2 million. However, we ended the year with $42.8 million of net income and $1.24 of diluted earnings per share, driven by total investment income of $79.6 million. For the full year 2024, we grew our fully diluted book value per share by 7.2% to $17.95 as of December 31, 2024.

2024 年全年，我們報告的綜合比率為 101.4%，產生了 820 萬美元的小額承保損失。然而，受 7,960 萬美元總投資收益的推動，我們今年的淨收入為 4,280 萬美元，每股攤薄收益為 1.24 美元。就 2024 年全年而言，截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的每股全面攤薄帳面價值成長 7.2% 至 17.95 美元。

2024 was the fifth consecutive year of growing our fully diluted book value per share, equating to an annualized growth rate of 6.9%. While this growth rate is below our expectations, we believe the current in-force book, along with its investment income-generating assets, Greenlight Re is capable of delivering double-digit growth in book value per share.

2024 年是我們每股完全攤薄帳面價值連續成長的第五年，相當於年增率為 6.9%。雖然這一成長率低於我們的預期，但我們相信，憑藉目前的有效帳面餘額及其投資創收資產，Greenlight Re 能夠實現每股帳面價值的兩位數成長。

I will now hand the call back to the operator to open it up for questions.

我現在將把電話交回給接線員，以便回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Anthony Mottolese, Dowling & Partners.

（操作員指示）Anthony Mottolese，Dowling & Partners。

Greg, do you think you could share some more information on that Q4 charge related to Russia-Ukraine? And maybe help frame it in the sense of how does this fit into your view on the ultimate industry loss? Really, any additional insight in potential losses to Greenlight would be helpful here.

格雷格，您能否分享一些有關第四季度與俄羅斯和烏克蘭有關的指控的更多資訊？也許可以幫助從某種意義上闡述這一點：這與您對最終行業損失的看法有何關聯？確實，任何有關 Greenlight 潛在損失的額外見解都會有所幫助。

Sure. Anthony, thanks for the question. I'll start and then Faramarz can add color to it. It was -- the thrust of your question is how do we view this in terms of ultimate losses. With all of our losses, we endeavor to book what we think are the ultimate loss ratios for all the contracts in every line of business. That's our goal. So this is not intended to be a down payment on what we think the ultimate loss is. This is what we think the ultimate loss is.

當然。安東尼，謝謝你的提問。我先開始，然後 Faramarz 可以為它添加顏色。是的——你的問題的重點是我們如何從最終損失的角度看待這個問題。對於所有的損失，我們盡力記錄我們認為的每個業務線所有合約的最終損失率。這就是我們的目標。因此，這並不是我們所認為的最終損失的首付。這就是我們認為的最終損失。

Obviously, there's some uncertainty, but perhaps not as much as one might think. Already, there's been some settlements -- significant settlements in the industry. There's been significant legal expenses. And then there's a limited bounded number of aircraft involved at the end of the day. So that limits the range.

顯然，存在一些不確定性，但可能沒有人們想像的那麼多。目前，已經有一些和解協議——業界的重大和解協議。有大量的法律費用。最終參與行動的飛機數量是有限的。這樣就限制了範圍。

In addition, we have outward retrocession. So we're booking a number which is net of that. And that retrocession cover is not exhausted. We're into it, but not exhausted. So that also dampens the uncertainty. Where there is, I think, for us, the most uncertainty is the treatment of the interpretation of the loss in terms of number of events and how it's reported by our reinsurers into the reinsurance and retrocessional market. So those are the biggest drivers of the uncertainty.

此外，我們還有向外的回歸。因此，我們預訂的數字是該數字的淨值。而且該返還保障額尚未用盡。我們熱衷於此，但並未精疲力盡。這也減少了不確定性。我認為，對我們來說，最大的不確定性是如何根據事件數量來解釋損失，以及我們的再保險公司如何向再保險和再分保市場報告損失。所以這些都是造成不確定性的最大因素。

Faramarz, do you want to add any color to that? Or is that pretty much.

Faramarz，你想加點顏色嗎？或者說差不多就是這樣。

No, I think we've always reserved at our best estimate, as Greg said. And there's -- it's hard to tell exactly how much the ultimate settlements will be. As reinsurers, [we're] one layer removed, and there's been a lot of settlements happening on the underlying business. But there could be various movements on it.

不，我認為我們一直按照最佳估計保留，正如格雷格所說的那樣。而且——很難準確說出最終的賠償金額是多少。作為再保險公司，我們只間隔一層，而且基礎業務上已經發生了許多和解。但其上可能會有各種動作。

The one thing we haven't received are formal notices or formal notifications from our cedents on the losses. So at this point, all of the reserve that we've booked and -- previously in 2022 as well as the increase this quarter is booked as IBNR. So we are anticipating there's going to be claims now starting to flow in from what we're hearing in the industry. So we've taken the strengthening this quarter in anticipation of that.

我們唯一沒有收到的是我們的受讓人關於損失的正式通知或正式通知。因此，此時，我們先前在 2022 年預訂的所有儲備金以及本季的增加額均已預訂為 IBNR。所以，根據我們在業界聽到的消息，我們預計現在將會有索賠開始湧入。因此，我們本季採取了加強措施以應對這一情況。

If I may, I have a second question. Specifically, I was thinking about the other adverse development trends you cited in the quarter, it sounds specific to casualty books. I was curious if there are any primary accident years or specific books of businesses impacted by inflationary or other accelerating trends? Just anything you can share there?

如果可以的話，我還有第二個問題。具體來說，我正在考慮您在本季度提到的其他不利的發展趨勢，這聽起來具體與傷亡保險書籍有關。我很好奇，是否有任何主要事故年份或受通貨膨脹或其他加速趨勢影響的特定企業帳簿？還有什麼可以分享的嗎？

Yes. These are secondary and smaller issues relative to the Ukraine adverse development. We continue to observe the development in casualty lines. Our historical exposure to sort of the broader market casualty trends are primarily from earlier years from a large retrocessional contract that we wrote. Fortunately, that contract was started to shrink before the market started getting particularly bad. I think our biggest exposure is maybe in the '15, '16, '17 years, but then diminishing for '18 and '19.

是的。相對於烏克蘭的不利發展，這些都是次要的、較小的問題。我們將繼續觀察傷亡情況的發展。我們對更廣泛的市場傷亡趨勢的歷史曝險主要來自於早年我們簽訂的一份大型回返合約。幸運的是，在市場變得特別糟糕之前，該合約就開始縮水了。我認為我們最大的曝光度可能是在 2015、2016、2017 年，但 2018 和 2019 年會逐漸減少。

So in terms of that wholesale Open Market, casualty reinsurance adverse development that's fairly older. We think that we have that pretty well boxed in. But we can't guarantee that, but it's not huge, we don't think. I think our go-forward book tends to be smaller limits, more frequency severity, not the major casualty programs that are subject to nuclear verdicts and aggressive plaintiff attorneys and severity kind of problems that have been plaguing the industry.

因此，就批發公開市場而言，意外傷害再保險的不利發展已經相當悠久了。我們認為我們已經很好地解決了這個問題。但我們不能保證這一點，但我們認為這個數字不會很大。我認為，我們未來的發展方向是限制更小、頻率更高、嚴重程度更高，而不是受到核裁決和咄咄逼人的原告律師影響的重大傷亡計劃，以及一直困擾著整個行業的嚴重性問題。

So that's -- we have seen some adverse development in the casualty lines. It's not something that is -- we think is hugely problematic for us. Is that a fair answer?

所以，我們看到傷亡方面出現了一些不利的發展。我們認為這對我們來說不是什麼大問題。這是一個公平的答案嗎？

Yes. There's -- some of the legacy casualty contracts is what's impacting it. We did, in the quarter, have favorable development on our specialty lines as well. So when you look at our overall adverse development for the quarter, Ukraine was by far the largest. We had some adverse on casualty, which was, for the most part, offset by favorable development on our specialty book.

是的。一些遺留的傷亡合約正在對其產生影響。本季度，我們的專業產品線也取得了良好的發展。因此，當您查看本季的整體不利發展時，烏克蘭是迄今為止最大的不利影響。我們在傷亡方面有一些不利因素，但這在很大程度上被我們專業保險帳簿的有利發展所抵消。

Okay. And as I think about sort of this go-forward book, you shared an update about 1/1 renewals for property on specialty. How are you thinking about where does casualty fit into the growth profile today? Are there areas, specific lines of business that you find attractive now? Or is there still just caution, given the loss environment here?

好的。當我思考這本前進的書時，您分享了有關專業財產 1/1 續約的最新消息。您認為傷亡險在現今的成長狀況中處於什麼位置？您現在認為哪些領域或特定業務領域具有吸引力的？或者，考慮到目前的損失環境，我們仍然只是保持謹慎？

Yes. I think caution. Our -- as an underwriting team, we're very much underwriting margin focused. And so casualty today, I think, is being underwritten with an eye to future investment income. I think there's a role of ILS that's playing in this that allows people to monetize future investment income in the forms of ceding commissions.

是的。我認為要謹慎。作為核保團隊，我們非常注重承保保證金。因此，我認為，今天承保意外險時，著眼於未來的投資收益。我認為 ILS 在其中發揮了作用，它允許人們以轉讓佣金的形式將未來的投資收益貨幣化。

I think that major -- we're not likely to be a major player on the large US national casualty programs. But where we are attracted is some of these smaller programs, and we definitely don't want to turn off the spigot on that area. There's a lot going on there. I think some of the major markets in the reinsurance industry are being cautious in that area and maybe even pulling back, and that can also create opportunities in casualty.

我認為，我們不太可能成為美國大型國家傷亡計畫的主要參與者。但吸引我們的是一些較小的項目，我們絕對不想關閉這個領域的龍頭。那裡發生了很多事。我認為再保險業的一些主要市場在該領域都持謹慎態度，甚至可能撤退，這也可能為意外險市場創造機會。

So I don't want to paint a completely negative picture about casualty. But we want to be sort of strategic and targeted where we at Greenlight Re as a smaller company can compete most effectively. And I think some of that, for example, is in our innovation space.

所以我不想對傷亡情況有完全負面的描述。但我們希望採取一定的策略性和針對性，使 Greenlight Re 作為一家規模較小的公司能夠最有效地參與競爭。我認為其中的一些就在我們的創新領域。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

Thanks for a great Investor Day back in November. I want to revisit the overall capital allocation, how you see the target allocation maybe changing with a chunk of the business renewing over the next -- the near to medium term? And does the broader market volatility right now actually serve as an opportunistic window to deviate from the capital allocation strategy overall at all here?

感謝您十一月份舉辦的精彩投資者日。我想重新審視整體資本配置，您認為隨著未來近期至中期內大量業務的更新，目標配置可能會如何變化？那麼，當前更廣泛的市場波動是否實際上是偏離整體資本配置策略的機會窗口？

Yeah. I think it's incremental, not step-change. As we said at Investor Day, we continue to find the returns on our [SIP] investment strategy very attractive. And so over time, continuing to -- with that allocation, possibly increasing the allocation is something that is accretive to us, as we indicated at Investor Day.

是的。我認為這是漸進的，而不是階躍的變化。正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們繼續發現我們的 [SIP] 投資策略的回報非常有吸引力。因此，隨著時間的推移，繼續進行這種分配，甚至可能增加分配，這對我們來說是有益的，正如我們在投資者日所指出的那樣。

Open Market is subject to cyclical pressures in the overall global reinsurance market. So we did see softening, modest softening, maybe a little more than we expected, though at Investor Day. I don't -- I think the rates remain very attractive. So as you see, we grew that segment at 1/1.

公開市場受到全球整體再保險市場的週期性壓力。因此，我們確實看到了疲軟，適度的疲軟，可能比我們預期的要多一點，儘管是在投資者日。我不這麼認為——我認為利率仍然非常有吸引力。正如您所看到的，我們以 1/1 的速度增長了該部分。

But if rates continue to soften, and all indications are that they will in '26 and beyond, absent major market changing events; then we would begin probably to reallocate capital from that, perhaps increase our outwards purchases as one way to manage that capital allocation down.

但如果利率繼續走軟，且所有跡象表明，在沒有重大市場變化事件發生的情況下，利率將在26年及以後繼續走軟；那麼我們可能會開始重新分配資本，或許增加對外採購作為降低資本配置的一種方式。

And what do we do? We either could allocate that capital to Innovations, to other pillars or buy back shares. But that's more of a '26 and beyond kind of a question. Innovations, again, we find that attractive. We see that as a great growth opportunity, building on some really distinctive strengths that Greenlight has in that area. And I'm committed to finding ways to leverage those strengths. So that's an area we would look for growth over time.

那我們該怎麼辦呢？我們可以將這些資本分配給創新或其他支柱，或回購股票。但這更像是一個 26 年及以後的問題。我們再次發現創新很有吸引力。我們認為這是一個很好的成長機會，可以利用 Greenlight 在該領域的一些真正獨特的優勢。我致力於尋找方法來充分發揮這些優勢。因此，這是我們期待隨著時間推移而實現成長的領域。

And Eric, the only thing I would add, this is Faramarz, is that on the Innovation side, we did enter into a whole account quota share in Q4, which was a way of allocating capital and allowing for more growth in that segment by freeing up some capital by having that retro program in place as well.

艾瑞克，我唯一想補充的是，我是 Faramarz，在創新方面，我們確實在第四季度進入了整個帳戶配額份額，這是一種分配資本的方式，透過實施追溯計劃釋放一些資本，從而允許該部分實現更多增長。

Yes. Okay. This is helpful. On the MicroStrategy arbitrage, is there a target rate of return you're looking for on an opportunistic trade like that? And how does it compare to the target return you might look for in other pair trades or opportunities you apply in Solasglas?

是的。好的。這很有幫助。在微策略套利中，您是否希望在這樣的機會交易中獲得目標報酬率？與您在 Solasglas 中應用的其他配對交易或機會中尋求的目標回報相比如何？

Yes. This is David. Thanks for the question. I don't think there's a way to calculate a target rate of return for the arbitrage. There's two dynamics that work for it. One is that the double-levered ETFs relating to MicroStrategy achieve some of their leverage through high-volatility, very-expensive call options. And as those call options decay or have to get rolled on a continued basis, there's just a drain in NAV that investors who own these things don't seem to appreciate.

是的。這是大衛。謝謝你的提問。我認為沒有辦法計算套利的目標報酬率。有兩種動力可以實現這一目標。一是與 MicroStrategy 相關的雙槓桿 ETF 透過高波動性、非常昂貴的買權實現部分槓桿作用。而隨著這些買權的貶值或必須持續展期，資產淨值就會流失，而擁有這些選擇權的投資人似乎並不欣賞這一點。

And then secondarily, there's the impact of the negative gamma that is created through the double leverage such that on up days, they have to buy more. And on down days, they have to sell more. So to the extent you have chop the gamma kind of destroys the return. The return on that position since we put it on has been exceedingly high. It probably annualizes nearly triple digits. So it's a lot better than many other things that we've been able to do.

其次，雙重槓桿會產生負伽瑪效應，導致投資人在股市上漲時必須買進更多股票。在市場低迷的日子裡，他們就必須賣出更多。所以，在某種程度上，削減伽瑪會破壞回報。自從我們設立該職位以來，其回報率一直非常高。其年化率可能接近三位數。所以它比我們能做的許多其他事情要好得多。

There are no further questions at this time. Should you have any follow-up questions, please direct them to Karin Daly of the Equity Group Inc. at ir@greenlightre.ky, and she'll be happy to assist you. This now concludes Greenlight Re's fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings conference call. Thank you. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡 Equity Group Inc. 的 Karin Daly（電子郵件：ir@greenlightre.ky），她很樂意為您提供協助。Greenlight Re 第四季和 2024 年年終收益電話會議到此結束。謝謝。您現在可以斷開連線。