Globe Life Inc (GL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Globe Life's Fourth (sic) [First] Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this conference is being recorded. And for the duration of the call, your lines will be listen-only. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the call over to your host, Stephen Mota, Senior Director of Customer Relations to begin today's conference. Thank you. Stephen, you may begin.

您好，歡迎來到 Globe Life 2022 年第四（原文如此）[第一] 季度收益電話會議。我叫梅麗莎，我將擔任今天活動的協調員。請注意，此會議正在錄製中。在通話期間，您的線路將處於只聽狀態。 （操作員說明）我現在將電話轉給您的主持人，客戶關係高級總監斯蒂芬莫塔，開始今天的會議。謝謝。斯蒂芬，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Joining the call today are Frank Svoboda and Matt Darden, our co-Chief Executive Officer; Tom Kalmbach, our Chief Financial Officer; Mike Majors, our Chief Strategy Officer; and Brian Mitchell, our General Counsel.

謝謝。大家，早安。今天加入電話會議的有 Frank Svoboda 和我們的聯席首席執行官 Matt Darden；我們的首席財務官 Tom Kalmbach；我們的首席戰略官 Mike Majors；和我們的總法律顧問 Brian Mitchell。

Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements that are provided for general guidance purposes only. Accordingly, please refer to our earnings release and 2022 10-K on file with the SEC. Some of our comments may also contain non-GAAP measures. Please see our earnings release and website for discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures.

我們的一些評論或對您問題的回答可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅供一般指導之用。因此，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會備案的收益發布和 2022 10-K。我們的一些評論可能還包含非 GAAP 措施。請參閱我們的收益發布和網站，了解這些條款的討論以及與 GAAP 措施的對賬。

I will now turn the call over to Frank.

我現在將電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Stephen. And good morning, everyone. I would note here that our reported results for the first quarter of 2023 and 2022 reflects the adoption on January 1, 2023 of the new LDTI and accounting guidance. First, I want to thank the many members of our accounting, actuarial, investment and technology teams for getting us ready to adopt this new accounting guidance this quarter. It was a substantial project, and they did a fantastic job. Tom will discuss the new guidance in more detail in his comments.

謝謝你，斯蒂芬。大家早上好。我要在此指出，我們報告的 2023 年第一季度和 2022 年第一季度的業績反映了 2023 年 1 月 1 日採用了新的 LDTI 和會計指南。首先，我要感謝我們的會計、精算、投資和技術團隊的許多成員讓我們準備好在本季度採用這一新的會計指南。這是一個重要的項目，他們做得非常出色。 Tom 將在他的評論中更詳細地討論新指南。

In the first quarter, net income was $224 million or $2.28 per share compared to $237 million or $2.37 per share a year ago. Net operating income for the quarter was $248 million or $2.53 per share, an increase of 4% from a year ago. On a GAAP reported basis, return on equity was 22.9% and book value per share is $39.74, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, or AOCI, return on equity was 14.6% and book value per share is $70.34, up 10% from a year ago.

第一季度淨收入為 2.24 億美元或每股 2.28 美元，而去年同期為 2.37 億美元或每股 2.37 美元。本季度淨營業收入為 2.48 億美元或每股 2.53 美元，同比增長 4%。根據 GAAP 報告，股本回報率為 22.9%，每股賬面價值為 39.74 美元，不計累計其他綜合收益 (AOCI)，股本回報率為 14.6%，每股賬面價值為 70.34 美元，較上年同期增長 10% .

In Life Insurance Operations, premium revenue for the first quarter increased 3% from the year ago quarter to $773 million. For the year, we expect life premium revenue to grow around 4%. Life underwriting margin was $291 million, up 1% from a year ago. At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect life underwriting margin as a percent of premium to be in the range of 37% to 39%. As we've discussed on prior calls, underwriting margin is different under the new LDTI accounting rules.

在人壽保險業務方面，第一季度保費收入同比增長 3% 至 7.73 億美元。今年，我們預計壽險保費收入將增長 4% 左右。壽險承保利潤率為 2.91 億美元，同比增長 1%。在我們指引的中點，我們預計壽險承保利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 37% 至 39% 之間。正如我們在之前的電話會議上討論的那樣，在新的 LDTI 會計規則下，承銷保證金是不同的。

In Health Insurance, premium grew 2% to $322 million, and health underwriting margin was up 4% to $91 million. For the year, we expect health premium revenue to grow around 3%, at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect health underwriting margin as a percent of premium to be in the range of 28% to 30%. Administrative expenses were $74 million for the quarter, up 2% from a year ago. As a percentage of premium, administrative expenses were 6.7% compared to 6.8% a year ago. For the full year, we expect administrative expenses to be up between 2% and 3% and be around 6.9% of premium due primarily to higher IT and information security costs.

在健康保險方面，保費增長 2% 至 3.22 億美元，健康承保利潤率增長 4% 至 9100 萬美元。今年，我們預計健康保費收入將增長 3% 左右，在我們指引的中點，我們預計健康承保利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 28% 至 30% 之間。本季度的管理費用為 7400 萬美元，比去年同期增長 2%。作為保費的百分比，管理費用為 6.7%，而一年前為 6.8%。對於全年，我們預計管理費用將增長 2% 至 3%，佔保費的 6.9% 左右，這主要是由於 IT 和信息安全成本較高。

Higher labor and other costs are expected to be offset by a decline in pension related employee benefit costs.

預計較高的勞動力和其他成本將被養老金相關員工福利成本的下降所抵消。

I will now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the first quarter marketing operations.

我現在將電話轉給馬特，聽取他對第一季度營銷業務的評論。

Thank you, Frank. At American Income Life, life premiums were up 5% over the year ago quarter to $388 million, and life underwriting margin was up 2% to $176 million. In the first quarter of 2023, net life sales were $83 million, down 2% from the year ago quarter, while first quarter sales declined slightly from a year ago they grew 19% from the fourth quarter of last year. The average producing agent count for the first quarter was 9,714, up 4% from the year ago quarter and up 5% from the fourth quarter and is consistent with our expectations discussed on the last call. I'm very encouraged with the sales and agent count trends and see a lot of positive momentum in this division.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。在 American Income Life，壽險保費比去年同期增長 5% 至 3.88 億美元，壽險承保利潤率增長 2% 至 1.76 億美元。 2023 年第一季度，壽險淨銷售額為 8300 萬美元，同比下降 2%，而第一季度銷售額同比略有下降，但比去年第四季度增長 19%。第一季度的平均製作代理人數為 9,714，比去年同期增長 4%，比第四季度增長 5%，這與我們在上次電話會議上討論的預期一致。我對銷售和代理商數量趨勢感到非常鼓舞，並看到該部門有很多積極的勢頭。

At Liberty National, life premiums were up 6% over the year ago quarter to $85 million, and life underwriting margin was up 3% to $28 million. Net life sales increased 27% to $22 million, and net health sales were $7 million, up 14% from the year ago quarter due to increased agent count and productivity. The average producing agent count for the first quarter was 3,011 up 13% from a year ago quarter. I'm very pleased with the results here as Liberty continues to successfully generate strong sales and recruiting activity.

在 Liberty National，壽險保費比去年同期增長 6% 至 8500 萬美元，壽險承保利潤率增長 3% 至 2800 萬美元。壽險淨銷售額增長 27% 至 2,200 萬美元，醫療保健淨銷售額為 700 萬美元，同比增長 14%，原因是代理人數量和生產力增加。第一季度的平均製作代理人數為 3,011，比去年同期增長 13%。我對這裡的結果感到非常滿意，因為 Liberty 繼續成功地產生強勁的銷售和招聘活動。

At Family Heritage, health premiums increased 7% over the year ago quarter to $96 million, and health underwriting margin increased 15% to $32 million. The increase in underwriting margin is primarily due to higher premiums and improved claim experience. Net health sales were up 21% to $23 million, primarily due to increased agent count. The average producing agent count for the first quarter was 1,298, up 18% from the year ago quarter. As we've mentioned previously, this agency has shifted focus over the last several quarters to recruiting and middle management development.

在 Family Heritage，健康保費比去年同期增長 7% 至 9600 萬美元，健康承保利潤率增長 15% 至 3200 萬美元。承保利潤率的增加主要是由於更高的保費和改善的理賠體驗。淨健康銷售額增長 21% 至 2300 萬美元，這主要是由於代理人數量增加。第一季度的平均生產代理人數為 1,298，比去年同期增長 18%。正如我們之前提到的，該機構在過去幾個季度已將重點轉移到招聘和中層管理人員發展上。

Now in our direct-to-consumer division, life premiums increased 1% over the year ago quarter to $248 million, but life underwriting margin declined 3% to $56 million. The decrease in underwriting margin is primarily due to an increase in lead-related non deferred acquisition expenses. Net life sales were $32 million, down 4% from the year ago quarter. As we have mentioned on previous calls, direct-to-consumer marketing is one facet of our business that has been impacted by the current inflationary environment. We've had to pull back somewhat on circulation and mailings as increases in postage and paper costs impede our ability to achieve satisfactory return on our investment for specific marketing campaigns. There is an offset to this as we continue to generate more Internet activity, which has lower acquisition costs than our direct mail marketing.

現在，在我們直接面向消費者的部門，壽險保費比去年同期增長 1% 至 2.48 億美元，但壽險承保利潤率下降 3% 至 5600 萬美元。承保利潤率下降主要是由於與鉛相關的非遞延收購費用增加。壽險淨銷售額為 3200 萬美元，比去年同期下降 4%。正如我們在之前的電話會議上提到的那樣，直接面向消費者的營銷是我們業務中受到當前通脹環境影響的一個方面。由於郵資和紙張成本的增加阻礙了我們為特定營銷活動獲得令人滿意的投資回報的能力，我們不得不在發行量和郵寄方面有所縮減。隨著我們繼續產生更多的互聯網活動，這有一個抵消，這比我們的直郵營銷具有更低的獲取成本。

In fact, electronic sales have grown at a 5.8% compounded annual growth rate since 2019 and are currently approximately 70% of our new business.

事實上，自 2019 年以來，電子產品銷售額以 5.8% 的複合年增長率增長，目前約占我們新業務的 70%。

On to United American General Agency. Here, the health premiums increased 1% over the year ago quarter to $133 million, and health underwriting margin of $13 million, which is 10% of premium, is consistent with the year ago quarter. Net health sales were $15 million, up 13% in the year ago quarter. The increase in net health sales is primarily due to the sales growth at Globe Life Benefits.

轉到美國聯合總代理處。在這裡，健康保費比去年同期增長 1% 至 1.33 億美元，健康承保利潤率為 1300 萬美元，佔保費的 10%，與去年同期持平。淨健康銷售額為 1500 萬美元，比去年同期增長 13%。淨健康銷售額的增長主要是由於 Globe Life Benefits 的銷售額增長。

Projections. Now I want to talk about based on the trends that we are seeing and the experience with our business, we expect that average producing agent count trends for 2023 to be as follows: at American Income Life, low double-digit growth; at Liberty National low double-digit growth; and Family Heritage, low double-digit growth. Are very nice -- I'm pleased to project that all 3 of our exclusive agencies are going to have low double-digit growth through the remainder of the year.

預測。現在我想根據我們所看到的趨勢和我們的業務經驗來談談，我們預計 2023 年的平均生產代理商數量趨勢如下：在 American Income Life，兩位數的低增長； Liberty National 的低兩位數增長；和家庭遺產，兩位數的低增長。非常好——我很高興地預測，我們所有 3 家獨家代理機構在今年剩餘時間裡都將實現兩位數的低增長。

Net life sales for the full year 2023 are expected to be as follows: American Income Life, low single-digit growth; Liberty National, low double-digit growth and direct-to-consumer slightly down to relatively flat for the full year. Net health sales for the full year of 2023 are expected to be as follows: at Liberty National, low double-digit growth; Family Heritage, low double-digit growth, and at United American General Agency, mid-single-digit growth.

預計 2023 年全年的淨壽險銷售額如下：美國收入壽險，低個位數增長； Liberty National、低兩位數增長和直接面向消費者的全年略有下降至相對持平。預計 2023 年全年的淨健康銷售額如下：在 Liberty National，低兩位數增長； Family Heritage 的低兩位數增長，United American General Agency 的中等個位數增長。

I will now turn the call back to Frank.

我現在將電話轉回弗蘭克。

Thanks, Matt. We'll now turn to the investment operations. Excess investment income, which for 2023, we define as net investment income less only required interest was $29 million, up 13% from the year ago quarter. On a per share basis, reflecting the impact of our share repurchase program, excess investment income was up 15%. Net investment income was $257 million, up 5% from the year ago quarter. Acquired interest as adjusted to reflect the impact from the adoption of LDTI, is up 4% over the year ago quarter, in line with the increase in net policy liabilities. For the full year, we expect net investment income to grow approximately 5% as a result of the favorable rate environment and steady growth in our invested assets. And excess investment income to grow between 10% and 12%.

謝謝，馬特。我們現在將轉向投資業務。超額投資收入（我們將 2023 年定義為淨投資收入減去所需利息）為 2900 萬美元，比去年同期增長 13%。按每股計算，反映我們股票回購計劃的影響，超額投資收益增長了 15%。淨投資收益為 2.57 億美元，比去年同期增長 5%。為反映採用 LDTI 的影響而調整後的收購利息比去年同期增長 4%，與淨保單負債的增加一致。由於有利的利率環境和我們投資資產的穩定增長，我們預計全年淨投資收入將增長約 5%。而超額投資收益增長在10%至12%之間。

Now regarding our investment yield. In the first quarter, we invested $311 million in investment-grade fixed maturities, primarily in the municipal, industrial and financial sectors. We invested at an average yield of 5.84% and an average rating of A and an average life of 25 years. We also invested $45 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnerships that have debt-like characteristics. These investments are expected to produce additional yield and are in line with our conservative investment philosophy. I will further discuss our commercial mortgage loans momentarily.

現在關於我們的投資收益率。第一季度，我們在投資級固定期限債券上投資了 3.11 億美元，主要投資於市政、工業和金融領域。我們的投資平均收益率為 5.84%，平均評級為 A，平均壽命為 25 年。我們還投資了 4500 萬美元用於具有類似債務特徵的商業抵押貸款和有限合夥企業。這些投資預計會產生額外的收益，並且符合我們保守的投資理念。我稍後會進一步討論我們的商業抵押貸款。

For the entire fixed maturity portfolio, the first quarter yield was 5.18%, up 3 basis points from the first quarter of 2022 and flat versus the fourth quarter. As of March 31, the portfolio yield was 5.20%. Now regarding the investment portfolio. Invested assets of $20.2 billion including $18.5 billion of $6 million -- of fixed maturities at amortized cost. Of the fixed maturities, $17.9 billion are investment grade with an average rating of A-. Overall, the total portfolio is rated A-, same as a year ago.

對於整個固定期限投資組合，第一季度收益率為 5.18%，較 2022 年第一季度上升 3 個基點，與第四季度持平。截至 3 月 31 日，投資組合收益率為 5.20%。現在關於投資組合。投資資產為 202 億美元，包括 600 萬美元中的 185 億美元——按攤餘成本計算的固定期限資產。在固定期限債券中，179 億美元為投資級，平均評級為 A-。總體而言，整個投資組合的評級為 A-，與一年前相同。

I would like to make a few comments regarding our banking and commercial mortgage loan investments. Total bank investments are 7% of our fixed maturity portfolio. We realized an after-tax loss of roughly $21 million during the first quarter on Signature Bank bonds. We also hold $39 million of First Republic bank bonds, which have been impaired in the second quarter due to recent developments. We did not have any exposure to the Silicon Valley Bank or the Credit Suisse AT1 bonds that defaulted.

我想就我們的銀行和商業抵押貸款投資發表一些評論。銀行投資總額占我們固定期限投資組合的 7%。我們在第一季度發現 Signature Bank 債券的稅後損失約為 2100 萬美元。我們還持有 3900 萬美元的 First Republic 銀行債券，由於最近的事態發展，這些債券在第二季度已經減值。我們沒有任何違約的矽谷銀行或瑞士信貸 AT1 債券。

Regarding our commercial mortgage loans. We have $204 million net book value of CMLs directly held on our balance sheet, which is 1% of our total investment portfolio. We also have $454 million of limited partnership funds or 2.4% of the total investment portfolio that invest in CMLs. These limited partnerships are carried at fair value, which is updated quarterly and managed by PIMCO and MetLife. The CMLs we hold directly and most of our limited partnership CML investments are transitional or bridge loans that generally have a floating rate, 3-year maturities and 2 optional 1-year extensions if certain criteria are met. We prefer the risk return profile of these types of loans over traditional commercial mortgage loans and believe they provide good diversification away from corporate securities.

關於我們的商業抵押貸款。我們在資產負債表上直接持有的 CML 賬面淨值為 2.04 億美元，占我們總投資組合的 1%。我們還有 4.54 億美元的有限合夥基金或投資於 CML 的總投資組合的 2.4%。這些有限合夥企業以公允價值計價，每季度更新一次，由 PIMCO 和 MetLife 管理。我們直接持有的 CML 和我們的大部分有限合夥 CML 投資是過渡性或過渡性貸款，通常具有浮動利率、3 年期和 2 個可選的 1 年期延期（如果滿足某些標準）。與傳統的商業抵押貸款相比，我們更喜歡這些類型貸款的風險回報狀況，並相信它們提供了遠離公司證券的良好多元化。

Transitional or bridge loans are typically used to renovate or otherwise improve a particular property. For loans that are on our balance sheet, oftentimes, the appraised value is reflected in our regulatory filings reflect the original as-is appraisal at the time the transitional mode was initiated, which does not take into account any increases in value after the renovations are completed. The loan-to-value method we consider in evaluating the property, what we call stabilized appraised value is the basis we use in the supplemental information we provided on our website and reflects appraisals that take into consideration the effect such renovations are expected to have on the property's value using market comps and other standard appraisal techniques at the time the loan -- of loan origination.

過渡貸款或過橋貸款通常用於翻新或以其他方式改善特定財產。對於我們資產負債表上的貸款，通常情況下，評估價值反映在我們的監管文件中，反映了過渡模式啟動時的原始評估，不考慮翻新後的任何價值增長完全的。我們在評估房產時考慮的貸款價值法，我們稱之為穩定評估值，是我們在我們網站上提供的補充信息中使用的基礎，反映了考慮到此類裝修預計對在貸款發放時使用市場補償和其他標準評估技術的財產價值。

Thus, the stabilized appraised values are typically higher than the original appraised values reflected in the regulatory filings. With respect to the CML [tell] directly on our balance sheet, $115 million of gross book value were originated prior to 2022. We have $59 million of loans with maturities in 2023 of which $22 million have optional extensions, subject to satisfaction of certain criteria. Of the loans with maturities in 2023, only $8 million are related to office properties, plus $2 million related to the pro rata office portion of mixed-use properties. The average loan-to-value ratio of the 2023 maturities is 64% with none greater than 90%. Our expected lifetime losses for our CML portfolio, which is equivalent to our CML CECL allowance is $3.1 million or 1.5% of book value.

因此，穩定的評估值通常高於監管文件中反映的原始評估值。關於 CML [告訴] 直接在我們的資產負債表上，賬面總值 1.15 億美元是在 2022 年之前產生的。我們有 5900 萬美元的貸款將於 2023 年到期，其中 2200 萬美元有可選的延期，但須滿足某些標準.在 2023 年到期的貸款中，只有 800 萬美元與辦公物業有關，另外還有 200 萬美元與混合用途物業的按比例辦公部分相關。 2023 年到期的平均貸款價值比為 64%，不超過 90%。我們 CML 投資組合的預期生命週期損失（相當於我們的 CML CECL 津貼）為 310 萬美元或賬面價值的 1.5%。

Based on both the underlying structure of our direct and indirect CML investments and the specific properties involved, we believe that the incremental risk inherent in these investments is more than offset by the additional yield they generate. As mentioned in our earnings release, we have provided additional information regarding our banking and CML investments on our Investor Relations website under Financial Reports and other financial information. These investments have been included in our portfolio stress testing that Tom will discuss in his comments.

基於我們直接和間接 CML 投資的基礎結構以及所涉及的具體財產，我們認為這些投資固有的增量風險被它們產生的額外收益所抵消。正如我們在收益發布中提到的那樣，我們在我們的投資者關係網站上的財務報告和其他財務信息下提供了有關銀行和 CML 投資的更多信息。這些投資已包含在我們的投資組合壓力測試中，湯姆將在他的評論中討論。

Our fixed maturity investment portfolio has a net unrealized loss position of approximately $1.3 billion due to the current market rates being higher than the book yield on our holdings. As we have historically noted, we are not concerned by the unrealized loss position and is mostly interest rate-driven. We have the intent and, more importantly, the ability to hold our investments to maturity. Bonds rated BBB are 51% of the fixed maturity portfolio compared to 55% from the year ago quarter. While this ratio is in line with the overall bond market, it is high relative to our peers. However, keep in mind that we have little or no exposure to higher-risk assets such as derivatives, common equities, residential mortgages, CLOs and other asset-backed securities.

由於當前市場利率高於我們持有的賬面收益率，我們的固定期限投資組合的未實現淨虧損頭寸約為 13 億美元。正如我們以往所指出的那樣，我們並不擔心未實現的虧損頭寸，而且主要是利率驅動的。我們有意，更重要的是，有能力持有我們的投資至到期。評級為 BBB 的債券佔固定期限投資組合的 51%，而去年同期為 55%。雖然這一比率與整體債券市場一致，但相對於我們的同行來說還是偏高的。但是，請記住，我們很少或根本沒有接觸過高風險資產，例如衍生品、普通股、住宅抵押貸款、CLO 和其他資產支持證券。

Additionally, unlike many other insurance companies, we do not have any exposure to direct real estate equity investments or private equities. We believe that the BBB securities that we acquire provide the best risk-adjusted, capital-adjusted returns due in large part to our ability to hold securities to maturity regardless of fluctuations in interest rates or equity markets. Below investment-grade bonds are $596 million compared to $583 million a year ago. The percentage of below investment-grade bonds to fixed maturities is 3.2%, still near historical lows.

此外，與許多其他保險公司不同，我們沒有任何直接的房地產股權投資或私募股權投資。我們認為，我們收購的 BBB 證券提供了最佳的風險調整後資本調整後回報，這在很大程度上是由於我們有能力持有證券至到期，而不管利率或股票市場的波動如何。低於投資級的債券為 5.96 億美元，而一年前為 5.83 億美元。低於投資級的債券佔固定期限債券的比例為 3.2%，仍接近歷史低位。

In addition, below investment-grade bonds plus bonds rated BBB are 54% of fixed maturities, the lowest ratio it has been in over 8 years. Finally, the amount of our fixed maturity portfolio subject to either negative outlook or negative watch by the rating agencies is at the lowest level since 2010.

此外，低於投資級的債券加上評級為 BBB 的債券佔固定期限債券的 54%，這是 8 年來的最低比率。最後，我們受評級機構負面展望或負面觀察的固定期限投資組合的數量處於 2010 年以來的最低水平。

Overall, we believe we are well positioned not only to a [standard] market downturn, but also to be opportunistic and purchase higher-yielding securities in such a scenario. Because we primarily invest long, a key criterion utilized in our investment process is that an issuer must have the ability to survive multiple cycles. We have performed stress tests under multiple scenarios on both our fixed and maturity portfolio and our commercial mortgages held directly and through limited partnerships. As previously noted, Tom will address the potential capital implications of these stress tests in his comments. At the midpoint of our guidance for the full year, we expect to invest approximately $1 billion in fixed maturities at an average yield of approximately 5.6% and approximately $250 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnership investments with debt-like characteristics at an average yield of 7% to 8%.

總的來說，我們認為我們不僅可以很好地應對[標準]市場低迷，而且可以在這種情況下投機取巧併購買高收益證券。因為我們主要投資長期，所以我們投資過程中使用的一個關鍵標準是發行人必須有能力在多個週期中生存。我們在多種情況下對我們的固定和期限投資組合以及我們直接持有和通過有限合夥持有的商業抵押貸款進行了壓力測試。如前所述，湯姆將在他的評論中解決這些壓力測試的潛在資本影響。在我們全年指引的中點，我們預計將投資約 10 億美元的固定期限債券，平均收益率約為 5.6%，並以平均收益率投資約 2.5 億美元的商業抵押貸款和具有類似債務特徵的有限合夥投資7% 到 8%。

As we've said before, we are pleased to see higher interest rates as this has a positive impact on operating income by driving up net investment income with no impact to our future policy benefits since [days] are not interest sensitive.

正如我們之前所說，我們很高興看到更高的利率，因為這通過推高淨投資收入對營業收入產生積極影響，而不會影響我們未來的政策利益，因為[天數]對利率不敏感。

Now I'll turn the call over to Tom for his comments on capital, liquidity and LDTI.

現在我將把電話轉給湯姆，聽取他對資本、流動性和 LDTI 的評論。

Thanks, Frank. First, I want to spend a few minutes discussing our share repurchase program, available liquidity and capital position. The parent began the year with liquid assets of $91 million. In the first quarter, the company repurchased 1.2 million shares of Globe Life Inc. common stock for a total cost of $135 million which includes the acceleration of approximately $35 million of our annual repurchase plan to take advantage of recent lower share prices. The average share price for these purchases was $115.04, and we ended the first quarter with liquid assets of approximately $77 million. Year-to-date, we have purchased 1.4 million shares of Global Life Inc's common stock for a total cost of $158 million at an average share price of $114.04.

謝謝，弗蘭克。首先，我想花幾分鐘討論一下我們的股票回購計劃、可用流動性和資本狀況。母公司年初的流動資產為 9100 萬美元。第一季度，公司以 1.35 億美元的總成本回購了 120 萬股 Globe Life Inc. 普通股，其中包括利用近期較低的股價加速我們年度回購計劃的約 3500 萬美元。這些購買的平均股價為 115.04 美元，我們在第一季度末的流動資產約為 7700 萬美元。年初至今，我們以 114.04 美元的平均股價購買了 140 萬股 Global Life Inc 的普通股，總成本為 1.58 億美元。

In addition to the liquid assets held by the parent, the parent company generated excess cash flows during the first quarter and will continue to do so throughout 2023. Parent company's excess cash flow, as we define it, results primarily from the dividends received by the parent from its subsidiaries less the interest paid on debt. We anticipate the Parent company's excess cash flow for the full year will be approximately $420 million to $440 million and is available to return to its shareholders in the form of dividends and through share repurchases. This amount is higher than 2022, primarily due to the lower life losses incurred in '22, which resulted in higher statutory income in 2022 as compared to 2021, thus providing higher dividends to the Parent in 2023 than were received in 2022.

除了母公司持有的流動資產外，母公司在第一季度產生了超額現金流，並將在整個 2023 年繼續如此。我們定義的母公司超額現金流主要來自母公司收到的股息母公司從其子公司減去支付的債務利息。我們預計母公司全年的超額現金流量約為 4.2 億美元至 4.4 億美元，可以通過股息和股票回購的形式返還給股東。這一數額高於 2022 年，主要是由於 22 年發生的人壽損失較低，導致 2022 年的法定收入高於 2021 年，因此 2023 年向母公司提供的股息高於 2022 年收到的股息。

As previously noted, we had approximately $77 million of liquid assets at the end of the quarter as compared to $50 million to $60 million of liquid assets that we have historically targeted. In addition to the $57 million of liquid assets, we expect to generate $295 million to $315 million of the excess cash flows for the remainder of 2023 providing us with approximately $350 million to $370 million of assets available to Parent for the remainder of 2023 after taking into consideration the approximately $23 million of share repurchases to date in the second quarter. We anticipate distributing approximately $60 million to $65 million to our shareholders in the form of dividend payments for the remainder of 2023.

如前所述，我們在本季度末擁有大約 7700 萬美元的流動資產，而我們的歷史目標是 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元的流動資產。除了 5700 萬美元的流動資產外，我們預計將在 2023 年剩餘時間內產生 2.95 億美元至 3.15 億美元的超額現金流量，從而為我們在 2023 年剩餘時間內為母公司提供約 3.5 億美元至 3.7 億美元的可用資產。考慮到第二季度迄今為止約 2300 萬美元的股票回購。我們預計在 2023 年剩餘時間內以股息支付的形式向股東分配約 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元。

In May, we have approximately $166 million of senior debt maturing. In April, the company closed on $170 million 18-month term loan, the proceeds of this term loan will be used to retire the 7.875% senior notes maturing on May 15, 2023. We want to continue to monitor debt markets and our capital needs. Our current plan is to issue new long-term debt long-term senior debt in 2024 to pay off the term loan, reduce other short-term debt and meet long-term capital needs.

5 月，我們有大約 1.66 億美元的高級債務到期。 4 月，公司完成了 1.7 億美元的 18 個月定期貸款，這筆定期貸款的收益將用於償還 2023 年 5 月 15 日到期的 7.875% 優先票據。我們希望繼續監控債務市場和我們的資本需求.我們目前的計劃是在 2024 年發行新的長期債務長期優先債務以償還定期貸款，減少其他短期債務並滿足長期資本需求。

As noted on previous calls, we will use our cash as efficiently as possible. We still believe that share repurchases provide the best return or yield to our shareholders over the other alternative -- other available alternatives. Thus, we anticipate share repurchases will continue to be the primary use of the Parent's excess cash flows after the payment of shareholder dividends. It should be noted that the cash received by the Parent from our insurance operations is after our subsidiaries have made substantial investments during the year to issue new insurance policies, expand and modernize our information technology and other operational capabilities as well as to acquire new long-duration assets to fund their future cash needs. The remaining amount is sufficient to support the targeted capital levels within our insurance operations and maintain the share repurchase program in 2023. In our earnings guidance, we anticipate between $370 million and $390 million of share repurchases will occur during the year.

如之前的電話所述，我們將盡可能有效地使用我們的現金。我們仍然相信，與其他選擇——其他可用的選擇相比，股票回購為我們的股東提供了最好的回報或收益。因此，我們預計股份回購將繼續是母公司支付股東股息後超額現金流的主要用途。應該注意的是，母公司從我們的保險業務中收到的現金是在我們的子公司在年內進行了大量投資以發行新保險單、擴大和現代化我們的信息技術和其他運營能力以及獲得新的長期期限資產來滿足他們未來的現金需求。剩餘金額足以支持我們保險業務的目標資本水平，並維持 2023 年的股票回購計劃。在我們的收益指引中，我們預計年內將進行 3.7 億至 3.9 億美元的股票回購。

With regard to capital levels at our insurance subsidiaries. Our goal is to maintain our capital levels necessary to support our current ratings. Globe Life targets a consolidated company action level RBC ratio in the range of 300% to 320%. At the end of 2022, our consolidated RBC ratio was 321%. At this RBC ratio our subsidiaries had at that time, approximately $125 million of capital over the amount required to meet the low end of our consolidated RBC target of 300%. When adjusted for first quarter realized losses of $24 million and anticipated $30 million after-tax loss related to the First Republic Bank, the RBC ratio is reduced approximately to 312% and is near the midpoint of our targeted RBC range of 300% to 320%.

關於我們保險子公司的資本水平。我們的目標是維持支持我們當前評級所需的資本水平。 Globe Life 的目標是將綜合公司行動水平的 RBC 比率控制在 300% 至 320% 之間。到 2022 年底，我們的綜合 RBC 比率為 321%。按照這個 RBC 比率，我們的子公司當時擁有大約 1.25 億美元的資本，超過了滿足我們 300% 的綜合 RBC 目標下限所需的金額。根據第一季度 2400 萬美元的已實現虧損和與 First Republic Bank 相關的 3000 萬美元預期稅後虧損進行調整後，RBC 比率大約降低至 312%，接近我們目標 RBC 範圍 300% 至 320% 的中點.

We are well positioned to address any additional capital needed by our insurance subsidiaries due to potential downgrades and additional defaults that may occur due to a recession or other economic factors. As Frank mentioned, we routinely performed stress tests on our investment portfolio under multiple areas. Under these stress tests, we anticipate various levels of downgrades in the defaults in our fixed maturity portfolio and include a provision for losses in our CML portfolio that reflects loss rates in excess of those in the Fed's severely adverse scenario.

我們有能力解決我們的保險子公司因經濟衰退或其他經濟因素可能導致的潛在降級和額外違約而需要的任何額外資本。正如 Frank 提到的，我們經常在多個領域對我們的投資組合進行壓力測試。在這些壓力測試下，我們預計我們的固定期限投資組合中的違約將出現不同程度的降級，並在我們的 CML 投資組合中包括一項損失準備金，以反映超過美聯儲嚴重不利情景下的損失率。

Under our scenarios, we do not anticipate that all the downgrades, defaults and losses in our CML portfolio would occur in 2023, but rather anticipate they would emerge over an extended period, which could be as long as 24 months. Even if the losses under our internal stress test occurred before the end of the year, we estimate only between $30 million to $55 million of additional capital would be needed to maintain the low end of our consolidated RBC target of 300%. The parent has sufficient capital sources of liquidity to meet this capital if it is needed to maintain our consolidated RBC ratio within our target range while continuing our dividend and share repurchase program as planned.

在我們的情景下，我們預計我們的 CML 投資組合中的所有降級、違約和損失都不會在 2023 年發生，而是預計它們會在更長的時間內出現，可能長達 24 個月。即使我們的內部壓力測試下的損失發生在年底之前，我們估計也只需要 3000 萬至 5500 萬美元的額外資本來維持我們 300% 的綜合 RBC 目標的低端。如果需要將我們的綜合 RBC 比率維持在我們的目標範圍內，同時按計劃繼續我們的股息和股票回購計劃，母公司有足夠的流動資金來源來滿足這一資本。

Now I'd like to provide a few comments related to policy obligations on the first quarter results. As we've talked about on prior calls, we have included in the supplemental financial information available on our website, historical operating sub results under LDTI for each of the quarters in 2022. In the third quarter of '22, we updated both our life and health assumptions. The life assumption updates reflect our current estimates of continued excess mortality particularly in the near term. For the first quarter, the life policy obligations showed slightly favorable fluctuations when compared to our assumptions of mortality and persistency. This resulted in a small life remeasurement gain in the quarter. The supplemental financial information available on our website provides exhibits, which shows the remeasurement gain or loss by distribution channel. The remeasurement gain or loss shows the current period fluctuations in experience and the impact of assumption changes, if any, which are allocated to the current quarter as well as past periods.

現在我想就第一季度業績的政策義務提供一些評論。正如我們在之前的電話會議上談到的那樣，我們在我們網站上提供的補充財務信息中包括了 2022 年每個季度 LDTI 下的歷史運營子結果。在 2022 年第三季度，我們更新了我們的生活和健康假設。壽命假設更新反映了我們目前對持續超額死亡率的估計，尤其是在短期內。對於第一季度，與我們對死亡率和持久性的假設相比，壽險保單義務略有有利的波動。這導致本季度的壽命重新測量收益很小。我們網站上提供的補充財務信息提供了展品，顯示了分銷渠道的重新計量損益。重新計量損益顯示當前期間的經驗波動和分配給當前季度和過去期間的假設變化的影響（如果有）。

In the absence of assumption changes it is indicative of experienced fluctuations. The remeasurement gain for the Life segment was $2.7 million lower policy obligations, reflecting favorable fluctuations for the quarter while for the Health segment resulted in $2 million higher policy obligations, reflecting unfavorable fluctuations for the quarter. In the first quarter, we had no changes to long-term assumptions.

在沒有假設變化的情況下，它表明經歷了波動。人壽部門的重新計量收益為保單義務減少 270 萬美元，反映了本季度的有利波動，而健康部門的保單義務增加了 200 萬美元，反映了本季度的不利波動。第一季度，我們沒有改變長期假設。

Finally, with respect to our earnings guidance in 2023, we are projecting net operating income per share will be in the range of $10.28 to $10.52 per diluted common share for the year ending December 31, 2023. The [$10.40] midpoint of our guidance is higher than what we had indicated last quarter. The increase in our expectations for 2023 is largely due to the impact of lower share price and slightly higher life margins as a result of lower policy obligations than previously anticipated. Consistent with our guidance on the last call and Frank's comments, for the full year 2023, we anticipate life underwriting margins to be in the range of 37% to 39% and health underwriting margins to be in the range of 28% to 30%.

最後，關於我們 2023 年的收益指引，我們預計截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日止年度每股攤薄後普通股的淨營業收入將在 10.28 美元至 10.52 美元之間。我們指引的 [10.40 美元] 中點是高於我們上個季度所表明的水平。我們對 2023 年的預期增加主要是由於較低的股價和由於保單義務低於先前預期而導致的壽險利潤率略高的影響。根據我們對上次電話會議的指引和弗蘭克的評論，對於 2023 年全年，我們預計壽險承保利潤率將在 37% 至 39% 之間，健康承保利潤率將在 28% 至 30% 之間。

Given that our assumptions were recently updated, we believe first quarter obligation ratios are indicative of emerging policy obligations over the year. We will be reviewing assumptions and anticipate making updates in the third quarter each year. At this time, we do not believe that to be significant. Total acquisitions in the first quarter as a percent of premium is 21%, including both amortization and non deferred acquisition costs and commissions, we expect the full year to be consistent with this 21%.

鑑於我們最近更新了假設，我們認為第一季度的債務比率表明了一年中新出現的政策義務。我們將審查假設並預計在每年第三季度進行更新。目前，我們認為這並不重要。第一季度的總收購佔保費的百分比為 21%，包括攤銷和非遞延收購成本和佣金，我們預計全年將與這 21% 保持一致。

While the new GAAP accounting changes were significant, it is important to keep in mind that the changes only impact the timing of when our future profits will be recognized and that none of the changes impact our premium rates, the amount of premiums we collect and the amount of claims we ultimately pay.

雖然新的 GAAP 會計變更很重要，但重要的是要記住，這些變更只會影響我們未來利潤的確認時間，而不會影響我們的保費率、我們收取的保費金額和我們最終支付的索賠金額。

Furthermore, it has no impact on our statutory earnings, the statutory capital we require to maintain for regulatory purposes or the parent company's excess cash flows nor will it cause us to make any changes in the products that we offer. Those are my comments.

此外，它不會影響我們的法定收入、我們出於監管目的需要維持的法定資本或母公司的超額現金流量，也不會導致我們對我們提供的產品進行任何更改。這些是我的意見。

I'll now turn it back to Matt.

我現在把它轉回給馬特。

Thank you, Tom. Those are our comments. We will now open the call up for questions.

謝謝你，湯姆。這些是我們的意見。我們現在將公開提問。

[Alexa], we're ready to open up the call for questions now.

[Alexa]，我們現在準備好開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) I think we do have a few questions in the queue. And our first question will come from Jimmy Bhullar.

（操作員說明）我想我們確實有幾個問題要排隊。我們的第一個問題將來自 Jimmy Bhullar。

So first, just a question on investment losses and their potential impact on statutory income and just your dividend capacity and share buybacks next year? Should we assume that the loss that you took on signature bank and the upcoming loss on First Republic will have an impact on buybacks as you're going into next year?

那麼首先，只是一個關於投資損失及其對法定收入的潛在影響以及你明年的股息能力和股票回購的問題？我們是否應該假設您在 signature bank 上的損失以及即將在 First Republic 上發生的損失將對您明年的回購產生影響？

Yes, Jimmy, we would expect statutory earnings to be lower from our subsidiaries in 2023, which would impact the dividends that the parent receives in 2024 as a result of those losses. It's too early to really tell what the impact on our buybacks plans are for 2024.

是的，吉米，我們預計 2023 年我們子公司的法定收益會降低，這將影響母公司因這些損失而在 2024 年收到的股息。現在要真正判斷對我們 2024 年回購計劃的影響還為時過早。

Okay. And then on the decline in [stat] income should be commensurate with the losses on the 2 banks assuming nothing else?

好的。然後 [stat] 收入的下降應該與 2 家銀行的損失相稱？

No, that is right. So as you think about the total realized losses that we had in the first quarter, there was the 1 bank. We did have a smaller small bond related to a University of Georgia property that was included in the net $24 million in there as well. But that as long as Republic would go through the statutory income in 2023 on an after-tax basis. And then, Jimmy, I was just going to note that there's other -- as we think about the changes in our loss claims, so we still have a certain amount of expectations with respect to the payments of -- we've talked in the past on excess obligations, whether it be from COVID or COVID-related and obviously, as those kind of subsides. So it's a little bit early to see. I think the initial anticipation was that those would be lower in '23 than what they were in '22. So we typically have some growth in our statutory earnings as well over time. We'll see how that plays out over the course of the year.

不，沒錯。因此，當您考慮我們第一季度的已實現總虧損時，就有第一家銀行。我們確實有一筆與佐治亞大學財產相關的較小的小額債券，該債券也包含在其中的 2400 萬美元淨額中。但只要 Republic 能夠在 2023 年的稅後基礎上完成法定收入。然後，吉米，我只是想指出還有其他的——當我們考慮損失索賠的變化時，我們仍然對付款有一定的期望——我們在過去的超額義務，無論是來自 COVID 還是與 COVID 相關的，顯然，隨著這些義務的消退。所以現在看有點早。我認為最初的預期是 23 年的價格會低於 22 年的價格。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們的法定收入通常也會有所增長。我們將看看這一年的結果如何。

Okay. And then just on direct response. Obviously, it seems like the Internet business is growing, but the mailing business, should we assume that if -- unless inflation comes down, a decent amount, then there shouldn't be much of a change in your circulation volumes and your sales activity?

好的。然後只是直接回應。顯然，互聯網業務似乎在增長，但郵寄業務，我們是否應該假設——除非通貨膨脹下降，數量可觀，那麼你的流通量和銷售活動應該不會有太大變化？

Yes, you're correct. Those 2 are offsetting each other. Our -- as we've mentioned in the past, we are reducing some of our circulation in mail and we'll continue to most likely do that through the remainder of '23, in because of those costs associated with the higher production cost of that channel. But we're trying to offset that, of course, with increase in Internet sales. And so that's why we've guided to essentially flat maybe a slight decline from a sales perspective for 2023.

是的，你是對的。這兩個相互抵消。我們 - 正如我們過去提到的那樣，我們正在減少我們的一些郵件流通量，並且我們很可能會在 23 年的剩餘時間內繼續這樣做，因為這些成本與更高的生產成本相關那個頻道。當然，我們正試圖通過增加互聯網銷售額來抵消這一影響。因此，這就是為什麼我們指導 2023 年從銷售角度來看基本持平或略有下降。

And then just lastly, could you comment on the recruiting environment, I would have thought with the tight labor market, the agent growth would have been stunted, but it's actually been fairly strong across the various channels recently?

最後，您能否評論一下招聘環境，我原以為勞動力市場緊張，代理人的增長會受到阻礙，但實際上最近各個渠道都相當強勁？

Yes. As we've talked about in the past, we've been able to successfully recruit in a variety of different economic environments. And as we think about it, we really look at what are the things that we are doing because we always have good sources of recruits. And so we really focus on how effectively can we onboard new agents. And as we've mentioned, that growth in the middle management count who's doing a lot of the recruiting of new agents, training them and getting them onboarded that's a key aspect that we're focused on growing to be able to grow that agent count. So we're really not seeing an impact from a macroeconomic environment from an employment perspective.

是的。正如我們過去所談到的，我們已經能夠在各種不同的經濟環境中成功地進行招聘。當我們考慮它時，我們真的在看我們在做什麼，因為我們總是有很好的招聘來源。因此，我們真正關注的是我們如何有效地招募新代理。正如我們所提到的，中層管理人員的增長正在做大量的新代理招聘、培訓他們並讓他們入職，這是我們專注於增長以增加代理數量的一個關鍵方面.因此，從就業的角度來看，我們確實沒有看到宏觀經濟環境的影響。

And if you reflect back on, we had strong agent count growth in Family Heritage and Liberty in Q3 and Q4 of last year. That momentum is continuing on. And then as we talked about on the last call, AIL, some of the things that we've put in place right at the end of the year are showing some fruits here in the first quarter. And so we've upped our projections for the agent count growth at AIL. And in fact, across all 3 of the agencies just based on the individual things that we're putting in place in each of those divisions.

如果你回顧一下，去年第三季度和第四季度，我們在家庭遺產和自由方面的代理人數增長強勁。這種勢頭還在繼續。然後，正如我們在上次電話會議上談到的那樣，AIL，我們在今年年底實施的一些措施在第一季度在這裡取得了一些成果。因此，我們提高了對 AIL 代理人數量增長的預測。事實上，在所有 3 個機構中，只是基於我們在每個部門中實施的個別事情。

And our next question comes from Wes Carmichael of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Wes Carmichael。

I think you mentioned a senior debt maturity that's coming up here in May, and I think that's going to be met with the draw on the term loan. But I think there's also some commercial paper around $285 million that's coming due. So are you expecting that to also be satisfied with the term loan draw or is that going to be [met another way]?

我想你提到了 5 月份即將到期的高級債務到期，我認為這將通過提取定期貸款來解決。但我認為還有一些約 2.85 億美元的商業票據即將到期。那麼，您是否希望對貸款提款期限也感到滿意，還是會 [以另一種方式滿足]？

We generally have commercial paper out there maturing and then issuing again. So we would expect to just reissue that commercial paper as well. And we generally will maintain that $285 million to $300 million of commercial paper out there.

我們通常有商業票據到期然後再次發行。因此，我們也希望重新發行該商業票據。我們通常會保留 2.85 億至 3 億美元的商業票據。

Got it. That's helpful. And then on the CNL portfolio outside the limited partnerships, you mentioned there are transitional or bridge loans for the most part. And I think 5% is shown in the office bucket, but it looks like a good portion of the mixed use bucket is also related to office. So within your stress test or your thoughts, like how are you thinking about any higher capital charges on that portfolio, either from drift in CM ratings are due to potentially having to take on some of those loans as owned real estate?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後在有限合夥企業之外的 CNL 投資組合中，你提到大部分有過渡性或過渡性貸款。我認為 5% 顯示在辦公室桶中，但看起來混合用途桶中有很大一部分也與辦公室有關。因此，在你的壓力測試或你的想法中，比如你如何考慮該投資組合的任何更高的資本費用，無論是由於 CM 評級的漂移，還是由於可能不得不將其中一些貸款作為自有房地產來承擔？

Yes. So when we did look at the stress test on those, we did take into consideration both the potential drift in the downgrades along with any downgrades we would have within the fixed maturity portfolio. We looked at that the same way if we did have some drift in those as well. But then we took a look at the loss rates on those that actually assumed in kind of our -- the high-end severe stress, about a 15% loss rate, which is about 2x the Fed's severely adverse scenario. I think there is around 6.8% or so. And so we doubled that with respect to what we included in our stress test.

是的。因此，當我們確實查看這些壓力測試時，我們確實考慮了降級的潛在漂移以及我們在固定期限投資組合中的任何降級。如果我們確實在這些方面也有一些偏差，我們也會以同樣的方式看待它。但後來我們看了一下那些實際假設我們的損失率——高端嚴重壓力，大約 15% 的損失率，大約是美聯儲嚴重不利情景的 2 倍。我認為大約有 6.8% 左右。因此，我們將壓力測試中包含的內容翻了一番。

Got it. And you touched on this a little bit, but the press release didn't have anything related to COVID or excess mortality. I think previously, maybe you guided to around 105 U.S. deaths this year. Is that still the case? Has that changed? And how much of that excess mortality is embedded in the midpoint of the [$10.40] EPS guidance?

知道了。你稍微談到了這一點，但新聞稿沒有任何與 COVID 或超額死亡率相關的內容。我想以前，也許你指導了今年美國大約有 105 人死亡。現在還是這樣嗎？那改變了嗎？ [10.40 美元] EPS 指導的中點包含了多少超額死亡率？

Yes. Good question. So we still think COVID deaths for the year will be around in the U.S. around 105,000. We haven't changed from that estimate. While we updated our assumptions last year, we reflected what we thought from an excess deaths perspective from the pandemic, both from COVID and non-COVID causes. So that's embedded in our -- the midpoint of our guidance.

是的。好問題。因此，我們仍然認為美國今年的 COVID 死亡人數將在 105,000 左右。我們沒有改變那個估計。雖然我們去年更新了我們的假設，但我們反映了我們從 COVID 和非 COVID 原因導致的大流行過度死亡的角度來看的想法。所以這嵌入在我們的 - 我們指導的中點。

And our next question comes from John Barnidge of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

Thank you very much for the opportunity. If we could stick with the investment portfolio a bit. Can you maybe talk about occupancy rates of that office and mixed-use and then compare it to central business district versus suburban?

非常感謝你給我這個機會。如果我們能稍微堅持投資組合。您能否談談該辦公室和混合用途的入住率，然後將其與中央商務區與郊區進行比較？

Just in general, on the broad 200...

一般而言，在廣泛的 200...

I'm talking about -- I'm talking specifically around the office and then that 45% of the mixed uses.

我說的是——我說的是辦公室周圍，然後是 45% 的混合用途。

Yes. So on the ones that are maturing here in 2023, so we've got about $8 million of -- that are 100% office. One of those was located in Washington, D.C., one of those in New York City. And then on the mixed use, there's about a $2 million allocation to office use of that particular property. So there's only 3 properties that make up that entire amount that's due here in 2020 or it's maturing in '23. One of those is in the process doing renovations, they're in the process of actually extending that for another 24 months. So that will be extended into 2025.

是的。因此，對於 2023 年在這裡成熟的那些，我們有大約 800 萬美元——這是 100% 的辦公室。其中之一位於華盛頓特區，其中一個位於紐約市。然後在混合用途方面，大約有 200 萬美元分配給該特定財產的辦公用途。因此，只有 3 個屬性構成了 2020 年到期或 23 年到期的全部金額。其中之一正在進行翻新，他們實際上正在將其再延長 24 個月。所以這將延長到 2025 年。

The other one that's a 100% office It's around -- it's a little bit different because they're actually taking it and then selling it into condo style offices. They're in the process of selling that. And as they sell those offices, it's -- they are repaying back down a portion of that goes to pay back on the loan. Given some of the current -- the sale bump from that particular property, it kind of points to actually a loan-to-value ratio of around 42%. So something we're not very concerned there. And on the mixed-use they've actually got, it's actually 100% leased and occupied at this point in time.

另一個是 100% 的辦公室 它就在附近——有點不同，因為他們實際上是把它拿走，然後賣給公寓式辦公室。他們正在出售它。當他們出售這些辦公室時，他們正在償還其中一部分用於償還貸款。考慮到當前的一些——該特定房產的銷售量，它實際上表明貸款價值比約為 42%。所以我們在那裡不是很關心。在他們實際擁有的混合用途上，此時它實際上是 100% 出租和占用的。

That's really helpful. My follow-up on mortality. Some of us talked about an early flu peak in the fourth quarter. Others have suggested that didn't occur. Can you maybe talk about your seasonal experience in the quarter?

這真的很有幫助。我對死亡率的後續行動。我們中的一些人談到了第四季度的早期流感高峰。其他人則認為這並沒有發生。您能否談談您在本季度的季節性體驗？

Yes. Just -- I mentioned that we had a small favorable fluctuation in mortality during the quarter. So we were pleased with kind of the overall mortality results really very consistent with our expectations, slightly positive.

是的。只是 - 我提到我們在本季度的死亡率方面有一個小的有利波動。因此，我們對總體死亡率結果非常符合我們的預期感到滿意，略微積極。

And our next question comes from Erik [Sherbet] of Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Erik [Sherbet]。

First question, just when you give your free cash flow guidance for the year, do you have any placeholder [on] for credit losses in that? Or is your assumption just that if those occur, they'd be borne by the excess RBC ratio in the subsidiary?

第一個問題，當你給出當年的自由現金流量指導時，你是否有任何占位符 [on] 用於信用損失？還是您的假設只是如果發生這些情況，它們將由子公司的超額 RBC 比率承擔？

It's really the latter, right? we don't reflect any access losses. And we do anticipate losses in general during the course of the year, we'll have some realized gains and losses. But -- so our base case does assume some but not a significant portion. So in general, I'd say any subsequent losses would be borne by our other liquidity resources and the surplus that we have in our -- the excess in our RBC ratio that we currently have.

真的是後者吧？我們不反映任何訪問損失。而且我們確實預計在這一年中總體上會出現虧損，我們將有一些已實現的收益和損失。但是——所以我們的基本案例確實假設了一些但不是很大一部分。所以總的來說，我想說任何後續損失都將由我們的其他流動性資源和我們擁有的盈餘——我們目前擁有的 RBC 比率過剩。

Got it, which is, I guess, why with these losses, you're just comfortable it brings the RBC ratio to the midpoint of your range, but there's really no impact on your free cash flow expectations.

明白了，我想這就是為什麼有了這些損失，你會很舒服地將 RBC 比率帶到你範圍的中點，但實際上對你的自由現金流預期沒有影響。

Exactly. And in addition, we -- just our liquidity resources that we have available to us if those losses did occur, we have resources available.

確切地。此外，我們 - 如果確實發生這些損失，我們可以使用我們可用的流動性資源，我們有可用資源。

Remember again, from the free cash flow -- from the excess cash flow that's really, again, driven by the dividends out of our subsidiaries from last year's statutory earnings. And so any of those losses don't affect that cash flow as any losses that we have this year will simply affect next year's cash flow.

再次記住，來自自由現金流——實際上，來自我們子公司去年法定收益的股息所驅動的超額現金流。因此，任何這些損失都不會影響現金流，因為我們今年的任何損失只會影響明年的現金流。

But again, as we -- although that it would be included in our stress test. And again, as we think about those stress tests we're trying to really look at what maybe could happen as we're doing a bottoms-up approach, not necessarily what we think will happen because when we look at our particular portfolio, we don't necessarily think that we'll end up and again because we have that ability to hold, especially on the fixed maturity side. So we don't anticipate losses that would actually be occurring during the year.

但是，正如我們一樣——儘管它將包含在我們的壓力測試中。再一次，當我們考慮那些壓力測試時，我們正在嘗試真正了解在我們採用自下而上的方法時可能會發生什麼，而不一定是我們認為會發生的事情，因為當我們查看我們的特定投資組合時，我們不一定認為我們會一次又一次地結束，因為我們有能力持有，尤其是在固定期限方面。因此，我們預計年內不會實際發生損失。

Got it. And then can you talk about the decision to use the term loan to pay off the debt maturity as opposed to issuing senior debt now? And I guess as you think of liquidity management, you'll now have the term loan maturity next year to deal with. Does that change at all how you think about kind of how much liquidity you want to hold or need to hold?

知道了。然後你能談談使用定期貸款來償還到期債務而不是現在發行高級債務的決定嗎？我想當你想到流動性管理時，你現在將要處理明年的貸款到期期限。這是否會完全改變您對想要持有或需要持有多少流動性的看法？

Yes. As we were thinking about the best way to refinance the debt that was maturing. We looked at a number of options. And we just -- one of the things that we're trying to do is to look at our maturity ladder as well. And so we thought it best to issue debt in 2024 to space out some of our maturities going forward.

是的。當我們考慮為到期債務再融資的最佳方式時。我們研究了多種選擇。我們只是 - 我們正在嘗試做的一件事就是也看看我們的成熟度階梯。因此，我們認為最好在 2024 年發行債券，以間隔我們未來的一些期限。

And our next question comes from Ryan Krueger of KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

I just wanted to understand the under LDTI, given that you already made an assumption for some level of continued excess mortality, is that -- is the 37% to 39% underwriting margin guidance, does that actually -- is that being negatively impacted at all by the excess mortality? Or did the assumption change that you made last year basically reflect that upfront already?

我只是想了解 LDTI 下，鑑於你已經對一定程度的持續超額死亡率做出假設，那是 - 37% 至 39% 的承保保證金指導，實際上是 - 是在都是因為超額死亡率嗎？還是您去年所做的假設更改基本上已經預先反映了這一點？

Yes, the (inaudible) last year ended up being reflected in that 37% to 39% underwriting margin. So it's already embedded.

是的，去年的（聽不清）最終反映在 37% 到 39% 的承保利潤率上。所以它已經嵌入了。

Got it. I guess maybe the question maybe to ask another way is, if -- how much upside would there be to that margin if the excess mortality kind of fully subsided?

知道了。我想也許可以用另一種方式問的問題是，如果 - 如果超額死亡率完全消退，那麼這個利潤率會有多少上升空間？

Yes, it's probably about 1% premium? Maybe.

是的，大概是 1% 的溢價？或許。

Then just one more. How are you thinking about your leverage capacity if we did end up in an environment where you had more credit losses, do you think you could end up just issuing additional debt and maintain the buyback at a consistent level?

然後只有一個。如果我們最終確實處於你有更多信用損失的環境中，你如何看待你的槓桿能力，你認為你最終可以只發行額外的債務並將回購維持在一致的水平嗎？

Yes. Our debt capital ratio as of the first quarter is 22.9%. So we have quite a bit of debt capacity over $700 million, $700 million or $800 million to be a bit below a 30% debt cap ratio, which is kind of where Moody's sets their limit. So quite a bit of debt capacity. And we'd actually expect that debt capital ratio to go down during the course of the year as well to give us even more debt capacity.

是的。截至第一季度，我們的債務資本比率為 22.9%。因此，我們有相當多的債務能力超過 7 億美元、7 億美元或 8 億美元，略低於 30% 的債務上限比率，這是穆迪設定的上限。所以相當多的債務能力。我們實際上預計債務資本比率在這一年中也會下降，從而為我們提供更多的債務能力。

And our next question comes from Andrew Kligerman of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

Interesting, American Income agent count up 6%. Their average producing agent I think, was up 4%. And the guidance this year for sales and life is low single digit. I'm kind of curious about you're recruiting, how that's coming along? And just kind of the seasoning of these new recruits. And could we expect a really nice number next year as a result?

有趣的是，美國代理人收入增長了 6%。我認為他們的平均製作代理人上漲了 4%。今年對銷售和生活的指導是低個位數。我有點好奇你們在招聘，進展如何？只是對這些新員工的調味。結果我們明年能期待一個非常好的數字嗎？

Yes. Probably go back in history just a little bit. As far as if you look at the increase in life sales for AIL in Q1 of last year, so Q1 of 2022. We had a 23% increase in life sales. And then in the second quarter of 2022, we had a 16% increase in life sales. So we've got tough comparables, so to speak, when you look at the first quarter and the second quarter of this year as compared to the prior year. But as we've talked about in the past, the agent count in the recruiting is a leading indicator for sales yet to come. And so what we're very pleased about is just that growth in the agent count throughout the first quarter of this year.

是的。可能只是稍微回顧一下歷史。就去年第一季度 AIL 的壽險銷售額增長而言，2022 年第一季度。我們的壽險銷售額增長了 23%。然後在 2022 年第二季度，我們的壽險銷售額增長了 16%。因此，可以說，當你將今年第一季度和第二季度與去年同期相比時，我們有很強的可比性。但正如我們過去談到的那樣，招聘中的代理人數量是未來銷售的領先指標。因此，我們非常高興的是今年第一季度代理商數量的增長。

And in fact, each week in the month of March, we were over 10,000 agents, again, in American Income. So that momentum, as those agents get up producing and as we've talked about in the past, the more experienced agents, obviously, are more effective from a sales perspective. So as those new onboarded agents get more experience, we expect that sales growth to accelerate in the last half of this year and then obviously that would carry over into 2024.

事實上，在 3 月份的每個星期，我們都有超過 10,000 名代理人，同樣，在美國收入。所以這種勢頭，隨著這些代理商開始生產，正如我們過去談到的那樣，從銷售的角度來看，更有經驗的代理商顯然更有效。因此，隨著這些新入職代理獲得更多經驗，我們預計今年下半年銷售增長將加速，然後顯然會延續到 2024 年。

Very helpful. And then just staying on that topic, you mentioned -- and I didn't get the exact numbers increasing the branch managers. And maybe you could talk a little bit about those initiatives within American Income. What's the delta there? And how impactful?

很有幫助。然後只停留在那個話題上，你提到了——我沒有得到增加分支機構經理的確切數字。也許你可以談談美國收入中的那些倡議。那裡的三角洲是多少？影響力有多大？

As far as our middle management growth in American Income, it's up 10% in the first quarter of this year. So that's what we're very pleased with. So that 10% growth in the middle management, again, helps us from a recruiting perspective as well as training and onboarding agents, and that's very good. We anticipate as far as just new agency owners, new offices being open, in American income, still predict that for -- throughout 2023 to be in the 3 to 5 number range, so good growth there as well.

就我們在美國收入中的中層管理人員增長而言，今年第一季度增長了 10%。這就是我們非常高興的地方。因此，中層管理人員的 10% 增長再次從招聘角度以及培訓和入職代理人的角度幫助我們，這非常好。我們預計，就美國收入而言，就新機構所有者、新辦事處的開設而言，仍然預測——整個 2023 年將在 3 到 5 個數字範圍內，那裡也有良好的增長。

Our next question comes from Wilma Burdis of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Wilma Burdis。

Just a question on the health margin that increased a little bit. Could you talk just drilling a little bit more what happened there?

只是關於稍微增加一點的健康裕度的問題。你能談談那裡發生的事情嗎？

Yes, we have to -- when we kept the bottom end of the range the same, but we do see the potential it to move up a little higher. We're seeing a little bit favorable experience on Family Heritage. And we feel like if that continues, the health margins could go up overall. On the UA side, we have seen a little bit of first quarter, a little bit higher claims, and I think others have seen that as well. And that's fairly consistent with the seasonality of Medicare supplement. But we think that Family Heritage actually provides kind of an opportunity for some upside.

是的，我們必須——當我們將範圍的底端保持不變時，但我們確實看到它有可能向上移動一點。我們在 Family Heritage 上看到了一些有利的經驗。我們認為，如果這種情況持續下去，整體健康利潤率可能會上升。在 UA 方面，我們看到了第一季度的一點點，索賠略高一點，我認為其他人也看到了這一點。這與 Medicare 補充劑的季節性相當一致。但我們認為 Family Heritage 實際上提供了一些上漲的機會。

Great. And it seems like all of the recruiting and sales numbers came up a little bit, which is great to see. But I guess my 1 quick question is if there's any recessionary impacts that could kind of flow through on pressure sales a little bit this year?

偉大的。似乎所有的招聘和銷售數字都出現了一點點，這很高興看到。但我想我的第一個快速問題是，今年是否有任何經濟衰退的影響可能會稍微影響壓力銷售？

Generally, in the past, as we've look through different economic trends, we really haven't seen that. Our sales growth is really driven by agent count growth and agent count growth is really driven by middle management growth. And so that's why you're seeing us revise up just the momentum that we're seeing in our onboarding of new agents as well as the growth in the management count across the 3 agencies is really what's driving our sales projections for the year.

一般來說，在過去，當我們審視不同的經濟趨勢時，我們真的沒有看到這一點。我們的銷售增長實際上是由代理人數量增長驅動的，而代理人數量增長實際上是由中層管理人員增長驅動的。因此，這就是為什麼您看到我們上調了我們在新代理人入職時看到的勢頭以及 3 個代理機構管理人員數量的增長，這確實推動了我們今年的銷售預測。

(Operator Instructions) We do have one remaining one for now. Wes Carmichael of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們現在還有一個。富國銀行的韋斯·卡邁克爾。

Actually, I had a technical one. As we're thinking about stress testing, and I'm really thinking about the RBC framework, but it does kind of give you credit through diversification benefit of the [C] risk. So I think you guys are a pretty C2 heavy company. I was just wondering if there's any way to think about a rule of thumb for the diversification benefit within C1 if you see any credit risk, if that makes sense.

實際上，我有一個技術性的。當我們考慮壓力測試時，我真的在考慮 RBC 框架，但它確實通過 [C] 風險的分散化收益給你帶來了信用。所以我認為你們是一家非常重視 C2 的公司。我只是想知道，如果你看到任何信用風險，是否有任何方法可以考慮 C1 中多元化收益的經驗法則，如果這有意義的話。

There would be some overall, you're right, about 50% of our CMLs or in there CM2. And are you looking -- maybe I misunderstood your question here on just the.

總的來說，你是對的，大約有 50% 的 CML 或 CM2。你在看嗎 - 也許我誤解了你在這裡的問題。

Yes, I'm just thinking if that's really like -- sure. So like if you think about the gross C1 charges and then you could do that math to your 300% to 320% RBC target. But then when you actually put it into the RBC formula, the square root calculation gives you some offset against those growth factors. So I'm just thinking about -- is there a rule of thumb we can use, so we're not overestimating the credit drift impact to Globe for RBC.

是的，我只是在想這是否真的像——當然。因此，如果您考慮總 C1 費用，然後您可以計算出 300% 至 320% 的 RBC 目標。但是當你實際將它放入 RBC 公式時，平方根計算會給你一些抵消這些增長因素。所以我只是在想 - 是否有我們可以使用的經驗法則，所以我們不會高估 RBC 對 Globe 的信用漂移影響。

Yes, I'll be honest. I'm not sure that I'm able to give you that what that rule of thumb would be. I mean there is definitely, as we do think about the C1 charges. We look a lot -- we think about size, diversification, and we work with that quite a bit and then trying to get the diversification across the portfolio. I'll be honest, I don't have that something I have handy to try to give you that rule of thumb.

是的，我會說實話。我不確定我能否告訴你那個經驗法則是什麼。我的意思是肯定有，因為我們確實考慮了 C1 費用。我們看起來很多——我們考慮規模、多元化，我們在這方面做了很多工作，然後試圖在整個投資組合中實現多元化。老實說，我沒有手邊的東西可以給你那個經驗法則。

Okay. And just last one on LDTI. It looked like there might have been a favorable impact on retained earnings and thus, book value ex AOCI. Just wondering, is there a way to quantify that? My math was there's a few moving pieces, but I thought it was around $4.50 a share versus prior gas. Is that in the ballpark? Do you have that handy?

好的。最後一個關於 LDTI。看起來可能對留存收益產生了有利影響，從而對 AOCI 前的賬面價值產生了有利影響。只是想知道，有沒有辦法量化它？我的數學是有一些移動的部分，但我認為它與之前的天然氣相比約為每股 4.50 美元。那是在棒球場嗎？你有那個方便嗎？

I didn't put it in that framework, but we are definitely seeing higher retained earnings as a result of restating 2021 and 2022 earnings under LDTI. It was -- and then the traditional balance sheet change was relatively small. There's like that was about $12 million. So we had previously guided to the LDTI would increase earnings by $105 million to $115 million. And so I think actually, what might be helpful to you is to look in the supplemental financial information, where we've restated the 2022 earnings numbers. And that will help guide you. But 2021 was about $187 million favorable over historical and 2022 was about $253 million favorable over historical. So that's adding about $428 million to retained earnings just because of the restatement of the prior historical numbers, yes, to the retained earnings as of 12/31/22 right? So that's right. 12/31/22.

我沒有把它放在那個框架中，但由於在 LDTI 下重述了 2021 年和 2022 年的收益，我們肯定會看到更高的留存收益。它是——然後傳統的資產負債表變化相對較小。大約有 1200 萬美元。因此，我們之前曾指導 LDTI 將收入增加 1.05 億美元至 1.15 億美元。所以我認為實際上，可能對你有幫助的是查看補充財務信息，我們在其中重述了 2022 年的收益數字。這將有助於指導你。但 2021 年比歷史高出約 1.87 億美元，2022 年比歷史高出約 2.53 億美元。因此，僅僅因為重述了之前的歷史數據，留存收益就增加了大約 4.28 億美元，是的，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的留存收益，對嗎？所以這是對的。 22 年 12 月 31 日。

That's perfect. My math was 4.29%. So it sounds like we're in the same ballpark. But I appreciate the follow-up.

那很完美。我的數學是 4.29%。所以聽起來我們在同一個球場。但我很欣賞後續行動。

And a large part of that, of course, if you're thinking about restating on those prior years, it is because we had the large fluctuations with COVID in both of those years so under LDTI that got a good chunk of that got pushed out in the future years as well as then the impact from the lower amortization.

當然，其中很大一部分，如果你想重述前幾年的情況，那是因為這兩年我們的 COVID 波動很大，所以在 LDTI 下，其中很大一部分被推出了在未來幾年以及較低攤銷的影響。

Thank you. And as we have no further questions, I'd like to hand it back over to Stephen Mota for any closing remarks.

謝謝。由於我們沒有其他問題，我想把它交還給斯蒂芬莫塔，讓他發表任何結束語。

All right. Thank you for joining us this morning. Those are our comments, and we'll talk to you again next quarter.

好的。感謝您今天早上加入我們。這些是我們的意見，我們將在下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you, everyone. That concludes our call. You may now disconnect. Hosts, please stand by.

謝謝大家。我們的通話到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。樓主，請稍候。