G-III Apparel Group Ltd (GIII) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Paulette, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the call over to Neal Nackman, Chief Financial Officer of G-III. You may begin.

Thank you. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or the financial condition of the company to differ are discussed in the documents filed by the company with the SEC. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

In addition, during the call, we will refer to non-GAAP net income and loss, non-GAAP net income and loss per share and to adjusted EBITDA, which are all non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP measures in our press release and on our website.

I will now turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Morris Goldfarb.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Sammy Aaron, our Vice Chairman and President; Wayne Miller, our Chief Operating Officer; Neal Nackman, our Chief Financial Officer; and Jeff Goldfarb, our Executive Vice President.

Our fourth quarter and full year results, we're pleased to have closed the fiscal year with continued record-breaking net sales and strong net income. Reflecting back, I'm proud of all that we've accomplished this past year. We successfully captured growth across our existing portfolio of brands and also did a really good job in executing the integration of DKNY and Donna Karan brands, our largest and most important acquisition to date.

Now let's take a look at our fourth quarter and full year results. We increased our fourth quarter net sales by 19% to $715 million from $603 million last year. Fourth quarter non-GAAP net income was $0.26 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $0.16 per share in the fourth quarter last year. For the full fiscal year, we grew net sales by 18% to $2.8 billion to $2.4 billion in the prior year. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share increased 12% to $1.60 from $1.42 in the prior year. Our adjusted EBITDA for the year increased to $201 million, an increase of $53 million from the prior year.

We concluded fiscal 2018 with the Calvin Klein business in excess of $1 billion in annual net sales, and all categories performed well. We believe we still have an opportunity for continued growth ahead with Calvin Klein.

We more than doubled our annual net sales of Tommy Hilfiger products to $275 million. The combination of our execution and great advertising and marketing from PVH has made the brand the strongest it has been in many years in the United States. Our outlook for fiscal 2019 is for another year of growth.

We almost doubled net sales of Karl Lagerfeld Paris products, another iconic designer brand. We've created an accessible fashion line with a specific provision flair. As a result, the consumers responded quite well.

We have built out great collections in multiple categories, each of which, we believe, will be meaningful to the whole brand. We're building the Karl Lagerfeld brand methodically, and we continue to expect it to become an important pillar for G-III over the next several years. Now on our second full year in North -- in the North American market, we're increasingly confident that we can grow the brand to capture a major opportunity.

We're very pleased to have successfully integrated the DKNY and Donna Karan brands and the operations onto our platform this year. We achieved an unquestionably successful launch of key categories for DKNY in partnership with Macy's in the United States. In addition to our ready-to-wear launch of DKNY sportswear, which did well out of the box this past season, our shoe and handbag collection have gained momentum this spring. We've also just recently launched DKNY dresses, and the early read is promising. DKNY products are now available in over 400 Macy's doors. We're excited to be a prominent brand in their top doors in several important categories.

We've also relaunched DKNY with Hudson's Bay for the Canadian market and with Liverpool in Mexico. DKNY is a global brand with a global opportunity.

This past fall, we relaunched the Donna Karan brand in ready-to-wear, handbags and shoes into fine department stores, and we're pleased with its development. We continue to be confident DKNY and Donna Karan will both grow to take their place among our largest and most profitable businesses.

As we move forward with both Donna Karan and DKNY, we've decided to become fur-free with both brands beginning with fall 2019. This commitment follows a longstanding relationship with The Humane Society of the United States.

Let me take a moment to talk about our outerwear business. While we've become more diversified and less seasonal with each passing year, outerwear is still a big category for us. This year's winter is conducive to a good outerwear season with all brands performing well. The many other brands in our wholesale mix also did well this past year. Our top performers include Eliza J, the best-selling dress brand in Nordstrom's; and our team sports business, which will continue to grow its partnership with Fanatics, a great online sports retailer. Vilebrequin, our status swimwear brand, had a much-improved year with full year comps up low double digits outside of the U.S. and mid-single digits in the U.S.

We continue to push for expanded wholesale distribution in the best specialty stores in the world as well as a more vibrant company-owned e-commerce business. We are particularly focused on developing the business in China and have signed a key partner for distribution in some of the best markets. We recently opened a store in the prestigious Atlantic hotel in the resort town of Hangzhou City and expect to open 4 to 5 additional stores this year in strategic cities across China.

As for our own retail stores, we made good progress and reduced our losses by nearly half in Wilsons and Bass. We remain focused and confident that we will achieve a 1/3 reduction of our store base by the close of this fiscal year ending January 31, 2019, compared to our store base of January 31, 2017. In the fourth quarter, Bass and Wilsons were roughly on plan. Margins were much improved, and outerwear sold well at Wilsons. We continue to see an improving comp trend at both brands this first quarter.

I'd also note that beyond our store reduction plan this past year, we converted 8 doors to Karl Lagerfeld and 5 doors to DKNY. We plan on further reducing our losses this upcoming year through better store productivity, operational efficiencies and additional store conversions.

Overall, looking ahead to 2019 and beyond, we continue to see a significant opportunity for us to continue to grow our business and to be the partner of choice for our department stores as well as our licensed stores. The depth and breadth of choice available to the consumers is unprecedented.

The shift to shopping online also continues to strain brick-and-mortar. Now the consumer has access to instantaneous information on products and pricing. They are making informed decisions on which channel and from which retailer to make their apparel and accessory purchase. To that point, we, too, continue to evolve and we are uniquely situated with regards to e-commerce. Our products sell extremely well online through the well-developed sites of our retail partners. This continues to be a larger percentage of our overall wholesale business. We will continue to build that partnership with pure-play online retailers, including Amazon.

We've incorporated a thoughtful allocation plan that preserves our brands and enables further growth. At the same time, we will continue to develop and enhance our own e-commerce platforms, which include DKNY, Karl Lagerfeld, Vilebrequin, Bass, Wilsons and Andrew Marc.

Successfully navigating the changing retail environment is a result of our focused and thoughtful approach to our business. Brands, particularly like our 5 global power brands, DKNY, Donna Karan, Calvin Klein, Karl Lagerfeld and Tommy Hilfiger, as well as the other well-known brands in our portfolio, have never been more important for our customers and consumers. We've built a well-diversified business, and we continue to deliver a clear fashion aesthetic that is unique to each of our brands. Our brand's distinct lifestyle and fashion positioning are a key competitive advantage.

As I said before, this is a challenging market environment, and the consumer buying patterns are affecting the overall retail landscape. I'd like to take a moment to discuss our current business with a longstanding customer. As many of you who are probably aware, Bon-Ton department stores has filed bankruptcy. We, therefore, believe it is prudent to forecast our business, excluding Bon-Ton. We believe the negative impact on this year's results will be an overall reduction of $100 million in net sales. The associated reduction of our diluted earnings per share is expected to be approximately $0.30 a share. We believe that beyond this year, whatever the outcome, there is consumer demand for our products in the markets that Bon-Ton serves. Beyond this point, the remainder of our wholesale business is healthy and, as Neal will describe in detail in a moment, we continue to see a good year ahead of us.

Thank you. I'll reserve a few comments for closing. And now, I'll pass the call to Neal Nackman, our Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you. Fourth quarter results. Net sales for the fourth quarter ended January 31, 2018, increased 18.5% to $715 million from $603 million in the same period last year, and net sales of our Donna Karan brand ended approximately $57 million of sales in the quarter. Excluding the Donna Karan sales, net sales for the quarter were approximately 10% higher than last year.

Net sales of our wholesale operations segment increased 17% to $566 million from $484 million. Net sales from our Donna Karan product lines accounted for $49 million of this increase. Net sales of our wholesale operations segment, excluding Donna Karan sales, increased by 7% in the quarter. Net sales of our retail operations segment increased 3.6% to $178 million from $172 million. Net sales increased by $11 million from our DKNY stores. Wilsons leather sales increased with same-store sales increases of 2.5% compared to the same period in the prior year. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in net sales at our G.H. Bass store chain, where same-store sales decreased by 6.8% compared to the same period in the prior year. We operated 44 fewer stores at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 compared to the end of fiscal 2017.

Our retail fiscal year included 53 weeks this year, which caused the quarter to include 14 weeks of results compared to 13 weeks in the previous year. This added approximately $6 million of sales in the quarter compared to last year.

The Donna Karan business was acquired on December 1, 2016, and accordingly, their results of operations were only included for 2 months in the previous year's fourth quarter.

Our gross profit percentage was 36.3% for the quarter compared to 32.8% in the prior year's period. The gross profit percentage in our wholesale operations segment was 29.5% compared to 26% in the previous year. This increase in gross margins relates to stronger performance across many of our wholesale divisions. In particular, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger and Karl Lagerfeld all had higher gross margins. And the outerwear divisions also achieved higher gross margins.

The gross profit percentage in our retail operations segment was 51.4% compared to 41.8% in the prior year. This increase in gross profit percentage is due significantly to an increase in gross profit percentage at Wilsons and G.H. Bass where we saw less promotions.

Total SG&A expenses increased to $219 million in the quarter from $200 million in the same period in the previous year. The increase is primarily attributable to the Donna Karan business, which was only included for 2 months in the prior year's fourth quarter.

We reported asset impairment charges primarily for furniture, fixture and leasehold improvements in some of our underperforming retail stores in the amount of $7.9 million compared to $10.5 million in the prior year.

Our GAAP net loss for the fourth quarter was $542,000 or $0.01 per share compared to a net loss of $20.1 million or $0.42 per share in the previous year's fourth quarter.

We had non-GAAP net income of $0.26 per diluted share in the current fourth quarter compared to a net loss of $0.16 per share in the prior year's fourth quarter. Non-GAAP results exclude professional fees and transitional expenses of $0.3 million and $9.1 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 and 2017, respectively; the impact of noncash imputed interest of $1.4 million and $1 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal '18 and '17, respectively; asset impairment charges of $7.9 million and $10.5 million in fiscal 2018 and '17, respectively; and income tax charges of $7.5 million in fiscal year 2018. The income tax charge is related to the onetime effect of the new tax act and primarily relate to a reduction of deferred tax assets and taxes due on foreign earnings.

Full year results. For the full fiscal 2018, net sales increased by 18% to $2.81 billion from $2.39 billion last year. Net sales of our Donna Karan brands added approximately $230 million of sales in the year. Excluding the Donna Karan sales, net sales for the year were approximately 8% higher than last year.

Net sales of our wholesale operations segment increased 21.4% to $2.45 billion from $2.02 billion.

Net sales of our Donna Karan brands added approximately $211 million in the year. Excluding the Donna Karan sales, net sales for the year were approximately 11% higher than the previous year.

Net sales in our retail operations segment increased 6% to $502.5 million from $474.2 million.

Net sales from Donna Karan stores increased $59 million. This increase was offset by sales reductions at both G.H. Bass and Wilsons.

For the full year, comp sales decreased by 1.7% at Wilsons and decreased 5.8% at G.H. Bass.

In addition, we operated 44 less stores as of the end of the year compared to the prior year.

Our gross margin percentage was 37.6% in fiscal '18 compared to 35.2% in fiscal 2017. The gross margin percentage in our wholesale operations segment improved to 32.8% from 31.4%. The gross margin percentage in our retail operations segment was 49.9% compared to 43.6% in the prior year. The wholesale gross margin did benefit approximately 100 basis points from the addition of Donna Karan licensing income, for which there was no associated cost of goods sold. The retail gross margins were positively impacted by better weather in the fourth quarter and less promotional activity.

Selling, general and administrative expenses increased to $855 million or 30.5% of net sales from $704 million or 29.5% of net sales in the prior year. This increase includes approximately $135 million of incremental expenses related to the Donna Karan business, which was only included in our results of operations for the last 2 months of fiscal '17.

Net income for the year increased to $62.1 million or $1.25 per diluted share from $52 million or $1.10 per diluted share in the prior year. Net income includes the effect of professional fees and transitional expenses of $2 million and $11.7 million in the full fiscal '18 and '17, respectively; the impact of noncash imputed interest of $5.7 million and $1 million in fiscal '18 and '17, respectively; asset impairment charges of $7.9 million and $10.5 million in fiscal '18 and '17, respectively; and again, the same income tax charges of $7.5 million in fiscal year 2018.

On an adjusted basis, excluding these items from the current and prior year's results, non-GAAP net income per diluted share was $1.60 for fiscal 2018 compared to $1.42 for fiscal 2017.

In addition, the company's effective tax rate, excluding the income tax charge, was 36.9% for fiscal year 2018 compared to 33.2% for fiscal 2017.

Regarding our balance sheet. Accounts receivables increased 12% to $294 million from $264 million. Inventory increased 15% to $553 million from $483 million. Our inventory increase is higher than our projected sales growth primarily as a result of the launch in growth of the DKNY and Donna Karan wholesale and retail business. We spent approximately $35 million on CapEx for 2018 primarily related to additional fixturing cost at department stores.

At the end of the quarter, we had long-term debt outstanding of approximately $391 million, which we incurred primarily in connection with the purchase of Donna Karan. This compared to $462 million at the end of the previous year.

In addition, our cash balances at the end of the quarter were $46 million compared to $80 million a year ago.

Looking ahead to 2019. Our guidance takes us into the effect -- takes into effect the impact of several factors, which include the exclusion of sales related to Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. We anticipate this will result in our sales in this year being approximately $100 million lower than it would otherwise have been and will have an unfavorable impact on our fiscal '19 net income per diluted share of approximately $0.30.

We are also required to implement the new revenue recognition standard, which, for us, will require us to reclassify cooperative advertising expenditures from SG&A to a reduction in net sales. This will result in a decrease in net sales growth and gross margin percentage of approximately 1% from what it would have been otherwise. Similarly, there will be an offsetting reduction in our selling, general and administrative expenses. In addition, we are now anticipating an effective income tax rate of 27% for the upcoming fiscal year.

With that said, for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2019, we are forecasting net sales of approximately $2.94 billion compared to $2.81 billion in fiscal '18. We expect net income to be between $97 million and $102 million or between $1.90 and $2 per diluted share as compared to net income of $62 million or $1.25 per diluted share in fiscal '18. We expect to have noncash imputed interest expense of $5.7 million in our forecasted results. On an adjusted basis, excluding noncash imputed interest, we are anticipating non-GAAP net income of between $101 million and $106 million or between $1.98 and $2.08 per diluted share. This also assumes a weighted average diluted share count of 51 million shares.

We are projecting full year adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2019 of between $218 million to $227 million compared to adjusted EBITDA of $201 million in fiscal '18. We are anticipating mid-single-digit comp increases at both Wilsons and Bass for the full year. We anticipate continuing to reduce the retail losses in our Wilsons and G.H. Bass operation by between $10 million to $15 million in fiscal 2019. This will be from a combination of planned comp increases, planned gross margin improvement and reduced losses from closed stores, which we approximate to be around $4 million.

For the fiscal quarter ending April 30, 2018, we are forecasting net sales of approximately $570 million and a net loss between $2 million and $7 million or a loss per share of $0.04 to $0.14 per share. This forecast compares to net sales of $529 million and a net loss of $10 million or $0.21 per share reported in the first quarter of fiscal 2018. The first quarter forecast assumes noncash imputed interest expense of $1.4 million. On an adjusted basis, excluding the noncash imputed interest expense, we are forecasting a non-GAAP net loss between $0.02 and $0.12 per share as compared to a non-GAAP net loss of $0.18 per share in the previous year.

That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Morris for closing remarks.

Thank you for joining us today. We're proud to have been able to provide leadership in the marketplace, including with our new product launches, especially DKNY and Donna Karan. To be clear, a lot of what we've been able to achieve is because we have the trust and the dedication of customers across the retail spectrum. Every time we try something new, our retail partners have stepped up and supported us. This is because they know we deliver. Their support truly inspires us. Our brands resonate. We are firmly on a path to growth. While we may face some challenges along the way, this market essentially is an opportunity for us. There will be winners that emerge from this period of rapid change, and our intent is to make absolutely sure that we're in the winner's circle. We also intend to do everything we can to make sure our customers are there with us as well.

Thank you, and we're now ready to take your questions.

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Edward Yruma from KeyBanc Capital.

Morris, you guys had some very upbeat commentary on the improvement in profitability at Wilsons and Bass. And I would say it sounds like that will continue into fiscal '19. How should we think about the overall outerwear business in relation to the guidance you've given? And how do inventories at the end of the season look?

Inventories at Wilsons -- let me start from the back first. Inventories at Wilsons are in very good shape. We sacrificed a little bit of spring opportunity to monetize, and actually it worked out well. The weather through spring has been quite cold, so we're busy selling fall product. And we start out with a good inventory level. It's better than it's ever been from an assortment point of view. We've also managed to sell off some of the dated inventory to jobbers, and our business is good. The first quarter, as you'll soon see, will lead you to believe that the remainder of the year will continue to be strong. So we're quite pleased with where Wilsons is.

All right. Just in relation to the outerwear business for your entire business and how you think about kind of industry conditions in outerwear for this year.

Industry conditions are good. Everybody monetized their inventory. The season ended strong. The off-price channel came around and basically cleaned up most of what was left over for pack-aways for the coming years. So everybody is positioned for a good year. We've bought fairly aggressively early to take advantage or maybe not take advantage, but to ensure ourselves of competitive pricing. So that was -- that began sometime in October. We were more aggressive on our purchases. We'll -- we're -- we'll begin to receive some of next fall's products a little bit earlier, and we're happy that we made that decision. So I'm sure the marketplace responded in similar form. Our competition, the people that are in the outerwear business all ended up on a high note. So it looks like outerwear will start out as a strong classification, yet again.

Great. And one final one, if I may. How should we think about the DK revenue that you've embedded in the fiscal '19 guidance? And are there any significant shifts due to seasonality?

The -- yes, we will be approaching a $400 million total Donna Karan business. The significant increase of that is in the wholesale part of our business. And we would expect that Donna Karan would be somewhat similar to the normal seasonal businesses that we've had, like at Calvin Klein and what Tommy Hilfiger would be. So we'll be slightly back-ended, but certainly nothing like the -- some of the businesses that we run that are outerwear-based. So it should be a fairly normal flow throughout the year with the exception that we do expect to continue to be growing the business, so we would expect continued escalations as each season unrolls.

The cycle had changed a little bit, as we're becoming a little more important in the European market. The best performing and maybe the biggest volume categories for us will probably be footwear and handbags and accessories, and that cycle may shift the calendar a little bit, but it's a good opportunity for us. It's better margin than we're accustomed to and it's an assortment of retailers that we've never traded with that, all of a sudden, could expand into some of our other brands as well.

Our next question comes from Erinn Murphy from Piper Jaffray.

A couple of questions for me. I guess, first, just on the Bon-Ton impact. It seems a little bit higher than you would have anticipated from an EPS perspective. It kind of implies margins are much closer to like 20% for that business versus your 8% wholesale average. So just trying to understand, a, if there's anything else in there; and b, just kind of what was the historic -- or I guess, was the historic profitability so much higher than your average.

Yes. So Erinn, the -- there's nothing else in there. The -- when you take sales off the top, there's not, at this point, for us a significant review of fixed expenses associated with that. So if you were to look at the normal margin we would have expected and the pure variable expenses, again, of taking sales off the top of one account, it does come in at a very high operating margin versus the entire operating margin for the business and the wholesale segment.

Adding to that, Erinn, there's -- $0.30 is attributed to Bon-Ton, but it's more of -- it's a whole package. There's an off-price component that comes with doing department store -- full-price department store business. Each one of our licenses permits us a percentage of off-price that relates to the full-price business. So we factored in the giveback of the off-price business that's got a wide range depending on brand.

Okay. No, that's helpful. And then just on the Donna Karan just going back to, I guess, Ed's last question. You said, I think, Neal, that it would be approaching $400 million in terms of revenue for this year. I guess, help us think about where we're at from an inflecting profitability perspective in fiscal '19.

Yes. So as we've said before, Erinn, we do expect, in the plans this year, is an operating profit for Donna Karan as a result of those increased sales. There is not a significant SG&A lift associated with those sales.

Okay. And then just one other one just, I guess, on the retail business. I think, Morris, you talked about an improving trend quarter-to-date for both retail businesses. Can you just expound a little bit more on that? It sounded like Wilsons, the fall weather is helping that, but maybe more serious on the G.H. Bass business. And are you tracking to where you guided the year at that positive mid-single-digit?

Clearly, the Wilsons business is a factor of the weather working our way and being prepared with inventory. The Bass business has gotten better. As we received spring delivery, the assortments are stronger, the margins are significantly better and we're selling off a good deal of our dated problem inventory. So it all pretty much gives us a picture of the future, which is cleaner inventory, less product in the back room, more current and fashionable inventory. We've realigned our design and our sourcing structure for Bass, and we believe we're in the middle of a much better year.

And our next question comes from John Kernan from Cowen.

Neal, can you just talk about what's embedded in your guidance for Calvin and Tommy? Obviously, both brands had a lot momentum in fiscal '18. I'm just wondering how we should model them and expect to model them in 2019.

Yes. So the Tommy business will continue to grow. The Calvin Klein business will be more seriously impacted by the loss of sales related to Bon-Ton. So I think on a -- from a net basis, we would be down in that business as a result of that.

So I guess, maybe on -- excluding Bon-Ton, what would we -- what would you expect those 2 brands to be growing this year?

Yes. So the -- look, the Calvin business, we had initially thought we could get up to about $1.5 billion. That would probably include mid-single-digit type growth prospectively. We're still feeling that the Tommy Hilfiger business ultimately becomes $1 billion business as well, much smaller base, so much higher growth rates on the Tommy Hilfiger business.

Okay. And then just thematically, as we think about department stores, they just had their best holiday season in a long time. It looks like the level of full-priced sell-through has obviously increased pretty significantly recently. And you've obviously hinted that the inventory levels are much better than they have been in prior years. So how should we think about the health of the overall department store channel beyond some of the headlines like Bon-Ton? How are you viewing that channel, both in the brick-and-mortar format and on digitally going forward?

So digital and brick-and-mortar in most of our retailers are almost one. They -- they're investing heavily in their online businesses, and it's showing. The percentage of business that we might do with any given retailer today skews a little bit more than it ever has toward digital. It's growing at a greater percentage on digital, which is more than compensating what might be missed on the brick-and-mortar side. And the other element is a lot of our department stores have added a component of an off-price channel. Whether it's Saks or Nordstrom's or Macy's, they all have an off-price component that is also shoring up their businesses. So they're focused on better products, more appropriate pricing. And more appropriate pricing doesn't mean cheaper pricing. The goal in most retailers is to get their AUR, their average unit retail up, not down. So it is -- it's a problem environment but -- in many areas, but there are solutions for the problems. And the astute retailer is finding them. It -- it'll take time. We're all looking for a business that we can better understand. The digital side of what we do today is fairly new. The antiquated brick-and-mortar and department store business is one that is a little bit dated, maybe a little bit more than a little bit, and there's not a retailer that's not aware of what they need to do to get the consumer back in the door. So at the end of the day, as I said earlier, this is a time where the stronger, more creative do prosper. So I think we're a part of that. And there are certainly retailers that are going to be leading the charge and some will lose.

Okay. And then maybe going back to Donna Karan. I think Erinn's question focused on what you thought the profitability would look like in fiscal '19. I guess, what about the long-term margin structure of this business as we go into fiscal '20 and '21? How should we think about updating our models in terms of the overall operating margin at Donna Karan business?

Yes. Without getting specific on guidance for the next 2 years, the -- we've always viewed this and continue to view the business as one that will lever the SG&A much more dramatically than what we have in the portfolio existing because we did start with an acquired base that was pretty big and we've built it pretty quickly. So we continue to think that we'll see leverage from the business. And it will be ultimately a 15% to 20% type operating margin that emanates from that business as a result of getting licensing income, not having to pay a royalty on the wholesale piece of the business and continuing to improve the retail part of it.

Our next question comes from Eric Tracy from Buckingham Research.

Just real quick point of clarification, Neal. In terms of the Bon-Ton, are you assuming no shipment to Bon-Ton this year? I just want to make sure because that -- they're still in operation. I just want to make sure that's the case.

Yes. We're assuming a very small amount.

Okay. And then as it relates to DK, the $400 million or approaching $400 million contribution, could you maybe just explain on that in terms of the visibility, be it from a category perspective or the distribution and how that layers in? And is that -- is there any change to that since last quarter in terms of the cadence and timing of that rev contribution that we should be thinking about?

Sure. We initially launched DKNY with handbags, then sportswear. Footwear came next. And the piece that happens to be the strongest within the category that is the strongest in our mix at G-III is really the dress business, and that came on late. We had assortments that we weren't happy with that we didn't bring to market. This happens regularly. So our first delivery of dresses -- or our first planned delivery of dresses never happened. Dresses have now hit, and performance is well -- is doing quite well. We're learning a lot. You aggregate some of the winners. You expand on the commonality of the winners. And you go forward and extract the components and make a broader assortment of winners. So we're in a process of doing that. Our bookings are strong on the dress side of it. So as far as the mix that's yet to come, it'll differ from the mix that's out there. Our footwear business is strong. It's strong globally. And our handbag business , again, the bookings on our handbags are very good. Ready to wear, always a problem child. It's a broad assortment of product that needs to be delivered pretty much at the same time with newness appearing on the floor on a regular basis. That's doing okay. So -- and we're going to grow our coat business. Our coat business was -- on the men's side was virtually nonexistent. And our women's business in coats was quite small. So I would say that Q4, there'd be significant difference in the scale of Q3 and Q4 for DKNY because of the kick-in of the outerwear business that wasn't bought as well as it is going forward.

And just lastly just in terms of the composition of domestic, international and, ultimately, that long-term target when you guys initially acquired DK. Has that changed at all, accelerated in your view? Any just kind of color on the overall composition will be great.

Part of it has shrunken. We've called in the nonperforming pieces. The distributors that were not achieving their goals and merely had a guaranteed commitment to LVMH for minimum guarantees, we've kind of negotiated -- we negotiated out of those. There were -- it was not good for any party. We've established partnerships that are supposedly and, hopefully, that'll be significantly better, one in China that's a joint venture that we've not launched yet. So we're looking at an area that was one of our largest distributors that's at a zero base for the moment that we'll launch for fall. And we should see a significant difference for the back end of the year. As far as the European business, most of the business for DKNY was really the wholesale business. It was really done in Europe. We do G-III as a company does very little outside of Vilebrequin that is -- that caters to the European business. So what we find interesting is that we've opened many new accounts. None of them have bought to the scale that our American department stores or American retailers buy, but they're all in. They're all excited about the opportunity of marketing DKNY at a different price point with an aggressive provider that'll support reorders. So we're aggressive and we're quite comfortable that we can achieve success in the European market, in the Asian Pacific market, in the Middle East and also in Russia. We're seeing excited partners for the first time. We came into the travel brand that now is true partnership. We're listening to what they need. We're producing what they need. And they're excited -- every one of them is excited to get our attention. So we -- we're in a good place with this brand.

Our next question comes from Susan Anderson from B. Riley FBR.

I wanted to touch a little bit on marketing just looking to see if you're adding any marketing dollars this year. And then also, I think back at ICR, you talked about a new marketing campaign for DKNY, so if you could touch on that a little bit and what that entails, that would be great.

We do have a plan. We have a budget for an aggressive marketing campaign. We -- you'll see -- it's delayed a little bit. Our choices for how we market and who we market with are just firming up right now. But you'll see a good deal of marketing. We've learned from the success of PVH that wonderful marketing generally results in good business. So we saw it. We're a student of it. We're the beneficiaries of good marketing from PVH. And we'll take a page out of their playbook and apply it to ours. So that's one. It's not only DKNY. It's also for Karl Lagerfeld. We have a planned launch of a flagship store, which is actually a conversion of a DKNY store in Soho this year. That'll interact some of the marketing we have planned as well as Karl himself, who's been doing a great job in Europe. We're the beneficiary of in the U.S. for the Karl Lagerfeld Paris collection, where we market Bass well. We're building a reasonable licensing revenue for Bass. And to support that, we believe that appropriate marketing, really, is necessary. Beyond that, Estée Lauder is launching a new fragrance, which is not done very often. The -- their spend will be significant that is specific to DKNY, so we're -- we've previewed it. We think it's great. So we'll be the beneficiary of a brand building that'll be done through Estée Lauder as well.

Great. That's helpful. And then just one last one to touch a little bit on the door closures. I guess, if kind of maybe giving your overarching view kind of going forward, what exposure do you think you have left after Bon-Ton? Will it just be the existing retailers, department stores trimming kind of existing doors, which you may not be in if they're lower tier? Or do you -- would you expect some more larger-scale closures going forward?

The closures that will occur, as they have historically, will be the nonperforming stores, so I don't really view that as major exposure. There may be a lesser door count, but it will be a healthier business. And generally, our partnership with department stores leads us to support some of their losing doors. So if they close losing doors, we may slip on a little bit on the top line, but I think we pick it up in profitability. And beyond that, we're always fighting for extra money in the performing doors, and maybe the shift in inventory will support what's needed to supplement performing product and performing doors. So I don't really see that as a negative. The online business, as I said earlier, is really packaged with brick-and-mortar in that customer base. So as maybe brick-and-mortar slips somewhat, it appears that the online business picks up the miss. The third component is we're first building our own online business and we're at the embryonic stage. We're investing in it. We have a great staff of people. We're seeing improvements every single day. So I think that's really not factored into the growth aspect of what we're putting out there, but that should become something that resonates in the -- possibly this year. If not this year, it'll be next year. So I think -- and then the other piece of it is the piece I touched on, which is the European piece. We don't have a presence in Europe. Our universe of competition, when they release earnings and they talk about how they've done historically, they're focused on good performance has generally been outside of the United States. We're an American company, distributing almost exclusively in the States. And for the first time, we've crossed those borders and we'll have something that will be impactful in the coming years that's international. So we've got some very good additions to our business that really shore up some of the problem issues that resonate for all of us when we read what goes on in the States and how the consumer is responding.

Our next question comes from Chethan Mallela from Barclays.

I just want to ask about the private label partnership with Amazon that you discussed from the last call. Can you provide a little more detail on the product categories that it covers, the size of the business right now and how you're thinking about scaling it and just the strategic motivation and then if the thought that this can be at least margin neutral just because of lack of a royalty fee?

So good question. The -- let's start with the categories. The categories are primarily coats and dresses. Their scale of the business is very small. There's a cost attached to developing a broad range of product and executing deliveries on small units as this grows. There have been several stages of management that are buying changes at Amazon. And quite honestly, we're rethinking our partnership on the private label piece of it. So this -- the growth right now at Amazon for G-III are either through the marketplace or the purchases of our brands, our licensed brands, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger. They're important to Amazon. So it's a large account for us, but the focus -- I've taken a little bit of the private label focus off the table until they stabilize their organization. And it's clear to me what our expectations should be and can be.

Great. And then just a quick follow-up on the DKI China JV. I believe, last quarter, the expectation was that product was going to start shipping in early 2018. And now it sounds that, that might be planned for the fall. So I'm just curious if there was a change there. And then just more generally around the strategy in that market. Can you just provide a little more context on the categories that you're going to plan to launch initially and how you're thinking about the initial distribution and the built?

So the pushback, we're first shipping product for fall. So the shipping is -- we're in the middle of that cycle, as we speak. So I don't believe it's really delayed to expectations. The categories are pretty much -- it's a broad range of everything that we do and then some. What we've done in that marketplace is we've hired design that will -- that lives in Shanghai. We have merchants and production-tracking people that are specific to the partnership. So we're treating it as a provider for the local market with some percentage of the needs filled by an organization that resides in Shanghai. We believe that's the best way to serve a market that sees product a little bit differently. The size scales are a little bit differently. They're a little bit different. So we're excited about the opportunity, but we're not treating it the same as we are on Macy's in the U.S. So it's -- I would say, by July, August, we'd have a good representation of what we do. Part of the growth will come out of company-owned stores and shop in shops that we create. And a big piece of future growth of that partnership will be through franchises that we have signed on and they pay for product, they prepay for product. There's little risk in it other than failure. And there's a fair amount of franchises that are -- that franchisees that have signed up for this initiative and many more that are waiting to see the early stage of development -- or the early stage of performance of this brand.

Our next question comes from Jim Duffy from Stifel.

I have one for Morris and then a couple for Neal. Morris, there's been a lot of recent comments from retailers about increasing penetration of exclusive brands and private label. Can you comment on how you think about this as it relates to your business and partnership with retailers? Where do you see further opportunity for exclusives? How do you think about opportunities as a private label provider? That'd be helpful.

Thanks for your question, Jim. We've always been a student and participants in private label. If you are going to hit the piece of the business that attracts me the most, it's always been the private label piece, and that's how it was built. It was built with specialty retailers through the '70s, '80s and '90s. And as specialty retail faded away, we needed a new model to do department store business, and that became licensing brands that would be important to the department store side. So we were always great on producing product, sourcing product, designing product. Our weakness had been, believe it or not, building brands. So licensing became the cure, but we never lost sight of the private label silo. We have an entire silo with a team of people that has designated designers and sourcing people for specific retailers. For competitive reasons, I prefer not to disclose those, but they're all important. They're all primary retailers in the United States. You'd be surprised as where our product resides. And it is also department stores. We do private label for Lord & Taylor with their brand. We do some private label for Dillard's. We do some private label for Nordstrom's. We do some private label for Macy's. So -- and then there's Kohl's and JCPenney. So there's -- we have our presence in all of those retailers with private label. Better than private label was actually the fact that we've -- we acquired an interest in Karl Lagerfeld to control the distribution and have it not as absolute private label, but as a controlled distribution brand to retailers that needed not exclusivity, but a little security that it wouldn't be a highly promotional brand. So we achieved that. And as you know, with DKNY, which is -- that's an expensive private label initiative, but that's primarily a Macy's brand. So if we were respectful of private label and understood the need of a retailer wanting to be special, I think this is the trophy piece. So the scale of it that's agreed upon between G-III and Macy's is quite significant. And it was the enabler to acquire the brand, quite honestly. The other pieces, we have a brand that is Nordstrom's single best dress brand, and it's not exclusive to Nordstrom's, but it's primarily Nordstrom's. Again, we control the distribution. It's our brand. It's Eliza J. I'm not sure you've ever heard of the brand, but it's the largest the dress brand in Nordstrom's. So we -- long-winded, I like the private label business as I understand the need for it. And you begin to take on a different profile as a company when a retailer believes that you can protect what they ask you to protect, the integrity of the brand, the integrity of product and the specialness of what they want to achieve. So our organization is built that way.

Okay. Neal, coming your way, can you quantify the revenue and profit impact from closed retail stores in the just-completed fiscal year?

So Jim, the revenue figure, I do not have handy. But I spoke to the $4 million improvement in losses that -- for closed doors off -- that -- in the prior year.

Okay. So that was as it relates to the just reported year, not the upcoming year.

That's right. There were losses in the prior year that we will not repeat.

Got it. Okay. And then receivables from Bon-Ton, where do you sit as far as that goes?

We're in good shape. We managed our business well. There was no additional reserve that was needed. We were cautious with our shipping. And we believe we're fine.

Okay. And then last one for me. Neal, interest expense expectations for 2018 and your expectations for cash flow for the year.

Yes. So we have out in the press release, Jim, I think, on a non-GAAP basis, I'm looking for interest expense of about $38 million that -- I'm sorry, $43 million this year. That's going up from about $38 million last year. We did have rate increases last year. And we are anticipating some this year. So that's the course for the increase. I'm sorry, the second part of the question.

Cash flow expectation for the upcoming year.

Right. Sure. So my estimate is there will be around $60 million of free cash flow this year. We probably have an expectation of spending CapEx in the mid-30s again similar to what we did last year. So I think if that, even anticipating growth in working capital, should put around a $60 million free cash flow year.

I will now turn the call back to Morris Goldfarb.

Thank you for listening to our story, and thank you for your partnership. Have a good day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.