GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, or good afternoon all, and welcome to the GFL Environmental Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator for today.

早上好，或者大家下午好，歡迎來到 GFL Environmental 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。我叫亞當，今天我將是你的接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now hand the floor over to Founder and CEO, Patrick Dovigi, to begin. So, Patrick, please go ahead when you are ready.

我現在將發言權交給創始人兼首席執行官 Patrick Dovigi 開始。所以，帕特里克，請在準備好後繼續。

Thank you and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to today's call and thank you for joining us. This morning, we will be reviewing our results for the fourth quarter and providing our guidance for 2023. I'm joined this morning by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through our forward-looking disclaimer before we get into the details.

謝謝你，早上好。歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議，感謝大家加入我們。今天上午，我們將回顧第四季度的業績，並提供 2023 年的指導。今天上午，我們的首席財務官盧克·佩洛西 (Luke Pelosi) 也加入了我的行列，他將在我們進入細節之前向我們介紹我們的前瞻性免責聲明。

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. We filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release is available on our website. We have prepared a presentation to accompany this call. That is also available on our website.

謝謝你，帕特里克。大家早上好，感謝您的加入。我們提交了收益新聞稿，其中包含重要信息。新聞稿可在我們的網站上獲取。我們準備了一個演示文稿來配合這次電話會議。這也可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and U.S. securities regulators.

在本次電話會議中，我們將根據適用的加拿大和美國證券法作出一些前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們認為或預期未來可能發生的事件或發展的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，包括我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定因素。

Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date, and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events and developments, or otherwise.

任何前瞻性陳述都不是對未來業績的保證，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表今天的日期，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件和發展，還是其他原因。

This call will include a discussion of certain non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and U.S. securities regulators.

此電話會議將包括對某些非 IFRS 措施的討論。在我們提交給加拿大和美國證券監管機構的文件中可以找到這些非 IFRS 措施的對賬。

I will now turn the call back over to Patrick.

我現在將把電話轉回給帕特里克。

Thank you, Luke. '22 was yet another exceptional year for GFL. We once again achieved double-digit industry-leading growth, an accomplishment even more impressive considering the economic uncertainty and cost headwinds that we experienced for most of the year. We believe that with the resilience of our growth, despite the challenges over the last few years, demonstrates the effectiveness of our strategies, the quality of our asset base, and our team's exceptional focus on value creation.

謝謝你，盧克。 22 年對 GFL 來說又是非凡的一年。我們再次實現了兩位數的行業領先增長，考慮到我們在一年中大部分時間經歷的經濟不確定性和成本逆風，這一成就更加令人印象深刻。我們相信，儘管過去幾年面臨挑戰，但我們的增長韌性證明了我們戰略的有效性、資產基礎的質量以及我們團隊對價值創造的高度關注。

Organic revenue growth was nearly 14% in Q4, topping a year of double-digit revenue growth in the prior 3 quarters in both our Solid Waste and Environmental Services segments. Solid Waste pricing was 11.5%, including fuel surcharges, with core price of 9.9%, the highest in GFL's history. Core price accelerated 130 basis points over the record pricing we achieved in the third quarter and was 8.2% for the year as a whole, over 300 basis points better than our original guidance for the year. This outcome sets us up for an even more attractive launch up point for 2023 than we previously anticipated.

第四季度的有機收入增長接近 14%，超過了我們固體廢物和環境服務部門前三個季度兩位數收入增長的一年。固體廢物定價為 11.5%，包括燃料附加費，核心價格為 9.9%，為 GFL 歷史最高水平。核心價格比我們在第三季度實現的創紀錄定價高出 130 個基點，全年為 8.2%，比我們最初的年度指導高出 300 個基點。這一結果使我們為 2023 年比我們之前預期的更具吸引力的啟動點做好了準備。

We also realized Solid Waste volume growth during the quarter and the year, which we believe is a testament to the quality of both our market selection and our customer service. Environmental Services continued to materially outperform our internal expectations and substantially defied the seasonality we typically see in the fourth quarter for this segment. Our thesis underlying the Terrapure acquisition has clearly proven and recent tuck-in M&A further bolsters our competitive asset positioning. We believe our Environmental Services platform is already best-in-class with margins in the mid-20 range, materially ahead of the industry peers.

我們還實現了本季度和本年度固體廢物量的增長，我們認為這證明了我們的市場選擇和客戶服務的質量。環境服務的表現繼續大大超出我們的內部預期，並且大大打破了我們通常在第四季度看到的該部門的季節性。我們對 Terrapure 收購的論點已得到明確證明，最近的併購進一步鞏固了我們具有競爭力的資產定位。我們相信我們的環境服務平台已經是同類產品中最好的，利潤率在 20 % 左右，大大領先於同行。

Longer term, we see potential for the Environmental Services segment to get the high 20% margin levels based on our significant scale in Canada and greater focus on pricing and quality of customers. As we continue to focus on quality of revenue and asset utilization, we remain extremely optimistic about the segment's growth prospects and operating leverage opportunities.

從長遠來看，我們認為環境服務部門有潛力獲得 20% 的高利潤率水平，這是基於我們在加拿大的巨大規模以及對定價和客戶質量的更加關注。由於我們繼續關注收入質量和資產利用率，我們對該部門的增長前景和經營槓桿機會仍然非常樂觀。

We grew adjusted EBITDA 17% for the fourth quarter. Our relentless focus on optimizing our pricing strategies and cost efficiencies are yielding the expected outcome. And you can see this in the margin results. Luke will walk through the margin bridge in detail, but the improvement over Q3 is significant.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 17%。我們對優化定價策略和成本效率的不懈關注正在產生預期的結果。你可以在保證金結果中看到這一點。 Luke 將詳細介紹保證金橋，但與 Q3 相比的改進是顯著的。

Our record-setting price growth drove 125 basis points of organic Solid Waste margin expansion in the quarter, when excluding the impact of fuel and commodity prices. Our fuel cost recovery program, which is still ongoing in development, continues to mitigate the margin impact of higher energy costs and allows our price increases to drive operating leverage. We are highly encouraged by the improving trends that we're seeing in our labor costs going into 2023. And although cost inflation still remains exceedingly high, repair and maintenance cost headwinds continue to linger, we believe that the worst is now behind us. Going into 2023 and beyond, we have high visibility that the impact of our pricing and surcharge strategies, together with the expected moderation of cost inflation, will result in significant opportunities for outsized margin expansion. And Luke will speak to this in more detail.

排除燃料和大宗商品價格的影響，本季度我們創紀錄的價格增長推動有機固體廢物利潤率增長 125 個基點。我們仍在開發中的燃料成本回收計劃繼續減輕能源成本上漲對利潤率的影響，並允許我們的價格上漲來推動運營槓桿。我們對 2023 年勞動力成本的改善趨勢感到非常鼓舞。儘管成本通脹仍然非常高，維修和維護成本的逆風繼續存在，但我們相信最壞的情況已經過去。進入 2023 年及以後，我們非常清楚，我們的定價和附加費策略的影響，以及預期的成本通脹放緩，將帶來利潤大幅擴張的重大機會。路加會更詳細地談到這一點。

Because of our greater visibility into 2023, we are excited to be able to increase the preliminary outlook that we provided just a couple of months ago. We now expect to generate adjusted EBITDA between 2 and $2.05 billion in 2023, an almost 20% increase over our 2022 results. Adjusted EBITDA margins are anticipated to expand over 100 basis points, a level we expect to be industry-leading, inclusive of headwinds from commodity pricing.

由於我們對 2023 年有了更大的了解，我們很高興能夠提高我們幾個月前提供的初步展望。我們現在預計 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2 到 20.5 億美元之間，比我們 2022 年的業績增長近 20%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將擴大 100 個基點以上，我們預計這一水平將處於行業領先水平，包括商品定價的不利因素。

Our guidance assumes approximately 8% Solid Waste price, flat Solid Waste volumes given some macroeconomic uncertainty going into 2023, and mid-single-digit top line growth for our Environmental Services segment. Our guidance assumes commodity and RIN prices based at current levels with any improvement over today's levels providing incremental upside to our guidance.

我們的指導假設固體廢物價格約為 8%，鑑於進入 2023 年的一些宏觀經濟不確定性，固體廢物量持平，以及我們的環境服務部門的中個位數收入增長。我們的指導假設商品和 RIN 價格基於當前水平，任何高於當前水平的改善都會為我們的指導提供增量上行空間。

The guide also does not factor in the impact of any additional M&A in 2023. We acquired approximately $480 million of revenue in 2022 and another $100 million in January, primarily consisting of a highly strategic asset for our Environmental Services segment in the U.S. Midwest. We've included the expected contribution from this asset in our guide, since the acquisition occurred so early in the year. Our M&A pipeline remains robust, and we expect that we will continue to have opportunities to deploy capital into value-creating acquisitions, although we expect our total M&A spend in 2023 to be more tempered than the last few years, which I'll discuss more in detail later in the call. Any contribution of M&A in 2023 will be upside to our base guidance.

該指南也沒有考慮 2023 年任何額外併購的影響。我們在 2022 年獲得了大約 4.8 億美元的收入，在 1 月份又獲得了 1 億美元，主要包括我們在美國中西部的環境服務部門的一項高度戰略資產。我們已將此資產的預期貢獻包含在我們的指南中，因為收購發生在今年年初。我們的併購管道依然強勁，我們預計我們將繼續有機會將資本部署到創造價值的收購中，儘管我們預計 2023 年的併購總支出將比過去幾年有所緩和，我將對此進行更多討論稍後在電話中詳細介紹。 2023 年併購的任何貢獻都將有利於我們的基本指導。

December 2022 marked the 15th anniversary of the founding of GFL. I could not have imagined when I started this business that would be -- we would have achieved so much in the last 15 years. I believe that we have the best employees in the waste industry. It's their hard work and dedication that allowed GFL to grow into the solid sustainable platform that produced industry-leading results in 2022 and still have so much more room to grow in the coming years.

2022年12月是GFL成立15週年。當我開始這項業務時，我無法想像 - 我們會在過去 15 年中取得如此大的成就。我相信我們擁有廢物處理行業中最優秀的員工。正是他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神讓 GFL 成長為堅實的可持續發展平台，在 2022 年取得了行業領先的成果，並且在未來幾年仍有很大的增長空間。

I'll now pass the call to Luke who will walk through the particulars of Q4 and the 2023 guide and then, I'll share some closing comments before we open it up for Q&A.

我現在將電話轉給盧克，他將介紹第 4 季度和 2023 年指南的細節，然後，在我們打開問答環節之前，我將分享一些結束語。

Thanks, Patrick. Consistent with prior quarters, our accompanying investor presentation provides supplemental analysis to summarize 4performance in the quarter and lays out the building blocks of our 2023 guidance. To provide more color on the fourth quarter, Page 5 identifies the drivers of $100 million of revenue outperformance versus our guidance, with the substantial majority derived from ongoing strength in our Environmental Services business, where we saw activity levels far in excess of seasonal norms. The quality of the Environmental Services platform we have built is clearly demonstrated by our customers' demand for our services, and we remain highly optimistic about our opportunities for high-quality organic growth in this segment.

謝謝，帕特里克。與前幾個季度一致，我們隨附的投資者介紹提供了補充分析，以總結本季度的 4 業績，並列出了我們 2023 年指導方針的基石。為了提供更多關於第四季度的信息，第 5 頁確定了 1 億美元的收入表現優於我們的指導的驅動因素，其中絕大部分來自我們環境服務業務的持續增長，我們看到該業務的活動水平遠遠超過季節性規範。我們建立的環境服務平台的質量清楚地體現在客戶對我們服務的需求上，我們對我們在這一領域實現高質量有機增長的機會保持高度樂觀。

Rounding out the revenue bridge, continued outperformance of core price and recent M&A also contributed to the over $1.8 billion of revenue recognized in the quarter. As Patrick said, core Solid Waste price accelerated 130 basis points from Q3 to 9.9% in the quarter and as a result, provides us significant confidence that 2023 pricing will be at least 8%. The bottom of Page 5 shows the adjusted EBITDA walk for the quarter, which is inclusive of incremental IT costs to support our shift to the cloud and ongoing higher costs related to repair and maintenance expenses.

完善收入橋樑、核心價格的持續出色表現以及最近的併購也為本季度確認的超過 18 億美元的收入做出了貢獻。正如帕特里克所說，本季度核心固體廢物價格從第三季度上漲 130 個基點至 9.9%，因此，我們有信心 2023 年的定價將至少達到 8%。第 5 頁底部顯示了本季度調整後的 EBITDA 步幅，其中包括為支持我們向雲遷移而增加的 IT 成本以及與維修和維護費用相關的持續增加的成本。

Page 6 bridges Solid Waste adjusted EBITDA margins year-over-year. As anticipated, fuel and commodity prices remained a margin headwind as compared to the prior year. We were able to achieve a 45 basis point sequential reduction to the net impact from fuel prices, as the effectiveness of our fuel cost recovery strategies continues to improve. Excluding commodities and fuel, organic Solid Waste margins expanded 125 basis points on a same-store basis, an 85 basis point improvement over Q3 and an indication of the strong operating leverage occurring in the base business.

第 6 頁將固體廢物調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與去年同期相提並論。正如預期的那樣，與上一年相比，燃料和大宗商品價格仍然是不利因素。隨著我們的燃料成本回收策略的有效性不斷提高，我們能夠將燃料價格的淨影響連續降低 45 個基點。不包括商品和燃料，有機固體廢物的同店利潤率擴大了 125 個基點，比第三季度提高了 85 個基點，表明基礎業務中存在強大的運營槓桿。

Page 7 summarizes the ongoing improvements we have made in our fuel surcharge initiatives during the year. We are tremendously proud of the pace with which we have been able to ramp up this program. With the success we've had to date, we are confident in our ability to conclude the first phase of this initiative in early 2023, 2 quarters earlier than initially planned. As we see significant opportunity beyond the first phase, an opportunity we will continue to pursue throughout 2023 and beyond.

第 7 頁總結了我們在這一年中對燃油附加費計劃所做的持續改進。我們為能夠加快該計劃的步伐而感到無比自豪。憑藉我們迄今為止取得的成功，我們有信心在 2023 年初完成該計劃的第一階段，比最初計劃提前兩個季度。由於我們看到了第一階段之後的重大機遇，我們將在整個 2023 年及以後繼續追求這一機遇。

As we've said on our previous calls, the industry has demonstrated the effectiveness of a mature fuel surcharge program. Our initiatives in this area are not breaking new ground. We are simply catching up to the industry standard. In Q4, we estimate the net impact of fuel was a 70 basis point tailwind to some of our industry peers' margins, a result 200 basis points better than the 130 basis point headwind we had in the quarter. We expect that the stability and quality of our margins will continue to improve as we close this gap.

正如我們在之前的電話會議上所說，業界已經證明了成熟的燃油附加費計劃的有效性。我們在這方面的舉措並沒有開闢新天地。我們只是在追趕行業標準。在第四季度，我們估計燃料的淨影響對我們一些行業同行的利潤率產生了 70 個基點的順風，比我們在本季度遇到的 130 個基點的逆風高出 200 個基點。我們預計，隨著我們縮小這一差距，我們利潤率的穩定性和質量將繼續提高。

Adjusted free cash flow for the year was $691 million, more than the high end of our updated guidance range and more than 8% above our original guidance despite the significant headwind from fuel prices and interest rates that have rose subsequent to the beginning of the year. As anticipated, the $150 million invested in working capital during the first 9 months of the year largely reversed during Q4. Partially offsetting this recovery was incremental working capital investment to support the revenue outperformance and recent M&A.

全年調整後的自由現金流為 6.91 億美元，高於我們更新後的指導範圍的上限，比我們最初的指導高出 8% 以上，儘管燃料價格和利率在年初之後上漲帶來了巨大的阻力.正如預期的那樣，今年前 9 個月投資於營運資金的 1.5 億美元在第四季度基本逆轉。部分抵消了這種複甦的是增量營運資本投資，以支持收入表現優異和最近的併購。

On CapEx, recall our guide plan, about $750 million to $800 million of net CapEx, excluding the $150 million normalization adjustment. At the low-end or at $750 million, that assumed about $880 million of gross spend across both our base business and RNG, offset by a $130 million in asset sale proceeds. In the end, gross spend was $830 million, as $50 million of planned CapEx was unintentionally shifted into 2023.

在資本支出方面，回想一下我們的指導計劃，淨資本支出約為 7.5 億至 8 億美元，不包括 1.5 億美元的正常化調整。在低端或 7.5 億美元，假設我們的基礎業務和 RNG 的總支出約為 8.8 億美元，被 1.3 億美元的資產出售收益所抵消。最後，總支出為 8.3 億美元，因為 5000 萬美元的計劃資本支出無意中轉移到了 2023 年。

Reported net leverage was 5x at the end of the year. The increase over where we ended the prior year was mostly the result of the translational impact FX. On Page 8, we have provided a simplified constant currency presentation on net leverage. That slide shows the year ending 1 point below the prior year, again an illustration of our growth-driven delevering capabilities despite significant unprecedented headwinds and continued execution of our M&A strategy in the year.

截至年底，報告的淨槓桿率為 5 倍。與去年年底相比的增長主要是外匯轉化影響的結果。在第 8 頁，我們提供了有關淨槓桿的簡化固定貨幣表示。這張幻燈片顯示的年度結束時比上一年低 1 個百分點，這再次說明了我們的增長驅動的去槓桿能力，儘管存在前所未有的重大逆風，並且我們在這一年繼續執行併購戰略。

As we've said before, we are committed to deleveraging. As part of our 2023 outlook, we will lay out a path to ending the year with leverage that starts with a 3, the achievement of which would further improve our financial strength and provide a basis for accelerated free cash flow growth.

正如我們之前所說，我們致力於去槓桿化。作為我們 2023 年展望的一部分，我們將製定以 3 開頭的槓桿率結束這一年的途徑，實現這一目標將進一步增強我們的財務實力，並為加速自由現金流增長奠定基礎。

On Page 9, we have summarized our current debt profile to provide additional context when thinking about leverage. Subsequent to year-end, we amended our $1.7 billion term loan B extending the maturity of our nearest term debt by 2 years. As a result, we've materially reduced the amount of debt maturity occurring in the next 4 years. We remain highly confident in the likelihood of receiving material credit rating upgrades prior to the maturity of most of our existing debt, providing opportunity for lower borrowing costs and improved free cash flow conversion.

在第 9 頁，我們總結了當前的債務狀況，以便在考慮槓桿時提供更多背景信息。年底之後，我們修改了 17 億美元的定期貸款 B，將我們最近的定期債務的期限延長了 2 年。因此，我們大幅減少了未來 4 年內到期的債務數量。我們對在大部分現有債務到期之前獲得重大信用評級升級的可能性充滿信心，這為降低借貸成本和改善自由現金流轉換提供了機會。

Looking ahead to 2023, Page 11 outlines the revenue bridge. Thanks to the strength of our finish to 2022, we're expecting at least 12% top line growth, inclusive of an expected 100 basis point headwind from commodity prices. Anchoring the double-digit increase is 8% Solid Waste price and surcharge growth, coupled with 3.5% to 4% rollover of already completed M&A. Given where we landed at the end of 2022, we have great visibility in realizing double-digit price in the first quarter and highly confident in the path to achieve 8% for price for the year as a whole at a minimum. The guide assumes relatively flat volumes across both segments given the potential for some macroeconomic uncertainty and the tough comp for Environmental Services in 2022. It also assumes no recovery of commodity prices and no incremental M&A.

展望 2023 年，第 11 頁概述了收入橋樑。得益於我們到 2022 年的強勁表現，我們預計收入至少增長 12%，其中包括商品價格帶來的預期逆風 100 個基點。兩位數增長的基礎是固體廢物價格和附加費增長 8%，以及已完成併購的 3.5% 至 4% 展期。鑑於我們在 2022 年底登陸的位置，我們在第一季度實現兩位數價格方面具有很高的知名度，並且對全年價格至少達到 8% 的路徑充滿信心。鑑於 2022 年可能存在一些宏觀經濟不確定性和環境服務的艱難競爭，該指南假設這兩個領域的銷量相對持平。它還假設商品價格沒有回升，也沒有增量併購。

With the quality of our anticipated top line growth, we're expecting over 100 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion in 2023, over 200 basis points of organic expansion when factoring in the headwind from commodity prices and the impact of acquisition rollover. With our significantly improved ability to manage the margin impact of any changes in fuel prices through our fuel recovery program, we expect a substantial underlying operating leverage within our platform to shine through. Our guide does not assume the cost inflation reverses, but moderates on a year-over-year basis by virtue of lapping the tough comps, particularly in the second half of 2023.

考慮到我們預期的收入增長質量，我們預計 2023 年 EBITDA 利潤率將增長超過 100 個基點，考慮到大宗商品價格的逆風和收購展期的影響，有機擴張將超過 200 個基點。通過我們的燃料回收計劃，我們顯著提高了管理燃料價格變化對利潤率影響的能力，我們預計我們平台內的潛在運營槓桿將大放異彩。我們的指南並未假設成本通脹會逆轉，但會隨著艱難的競爭而同比放緩，尤其是在 2023 年下半年。

The margin expansion is anticipated in both of our segments, partially offset by a 50 basis point increase in corporate cost margin primarily related to incremental IT investments to support the migration of our systems to the cloud and provide added security and support the growth of the business.

預計我們兩個部門的利潤率都會增加，但部分被公司成本利潤率增加 50 個基點所抵消，這主要與增量 IT 投資有關，以支持我們的系統向雲遷移並提供更高的安全性並支持業務增長.

All of this translates to mid to high teens EBITDA growth or $2.025 billion at the midpoint of the guide. The guidance assumes an FX rate of 1.34, 2 basis points lower than the 1.36 that was used for our initial 2023 thoughts provided last November. Recall that every $0.01 of FX impacts revenue by $36 million.

所有這些都轉化為中高青少年 EBITDA 增長或指南中點的 20.25 億美元。該指南假設匯率為 1.34，比我們去年 11 月提供的 2023 年初始想法所用的 1.36 低 2 個基點。回想一下，每 0.01 美元的外匯收入就會影響 3600 萬美元的收入。

At the free cash flow line, the biggest piece of the story in 2023 is cash interest, which increases $100 million to just over $510 million for the year, representing a 15% headwind year-over-year at the free cash flow line. Patrick will speak in a moment about how we expect to materially reduce our annual cash interest, which we expect will support over 20% growth in free cash flow in 2024, but 2023 is a recalibration year at this line item, as the full impact of the 2022 rate increase is realized.

在自由現金流線上，2023 年最大的故事是現金利息，全年增加 1 億美元至略高於 5.1 億美元，在自由現金流線上同比增長 15%。 Patrick 稍後將談到我們期望如何大幅降低年度現金利息，我們預計這將支持 2024 年自由現金流增長 20% 以上，但 2023 年是該項目的重新校準年，因為實現了 2022 年的增長率。

We also have the $50 million of delayed CapEx shifting from 2022 to 2023. Excluding this CapEx amount, the net free cash flow growth would have been 17%, inclusive of the 15% interest headwind. Total net CapEx included in the guide is approximately $810 million to $815 million, inclusive of approximately $40 million in incremental equity investment into our RNG projects. Our current expectation is that the availability of project-level financing, combined with available investment tax credits under Inflation Reduction Act, will significantly reduce the equity we need to contribute to these projects, further improving the return profile. The net result of the planned growth in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow is for net leverage to reduce to low-4s before considering the potential acceleration of deleveraging through asset sales that Patrick will speak to. That's the math for the 2023 guide.

我們還有 5000 萬美元的延遲資本支出從 2022 年轉移到 2023 年。如果不計入這一資本支出金額，淨自由現金流量增長將達到 17%，包括 15% 的利息逆風。指南中包含的淨資本支出總額約為 8.1 億美元至 8.15 億美元，其中包括對我們的 RNG 項目的約 4000 萬美元增量股權投資。我們目前的預期是，項目級融資的可用性，加上《減通脹法》規定的可用投資稅收抵免，將大大減少我們需要為這些項目提供的資金，進一步改善回報狀況。調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流計劃增長的最終結果是淨槓桿率降至 4s 的低水平，然後再考慮帕特里克將談到的通過資產出售可能加速去槓桿化。這是 2023 年指南的數學計算。

When you think about the quarterly cadence, we typically realize 22% to 23% of planned annual Solid Waste revenues in Q1 and 18% to 20% of the plan for Environmental Services, which translates to just under $1.7 billion of total revenue in Q1. In terms of margin, we expect the first quarter will be the toughest comp. We're expecting a similar consolidated margin profile as Q4 around 24%, representing a 130 basis point compression to Q1 2022.

當您考慮季度節奏時，我們通常會在第一季度實現計劃年度固體廢物收入的 22% 至 23%，以及環境服務計劃的 18% 至 20%，這相當於第一季度總收入略低於 17 億美元。就利潤率而言，我們預計第一季度將是最艱難的時期。我們預計與第四季度類似的綜合利潤率約為 24%，比 2022 年第一季度壓縮 130 個基點。

At the segment level, Solid Waste margins are expected to sequentially improve over 100 basis points versus Q4, and ES margins -- Environmental Services margins are expected to be in the high-teens with corporate costs at sort of 3% to 5% of revenue. Subsequent to Q1, we expect margin expansion over the prior year growing sequentially from Q2 through Q4.

在細分市場層面，固體廢物利潤率預計將比第四季度連續提高 100 個基點以上，而 ES 利潤率——環境服務利潤率預計將處於高水平，企業成本佔收入的 3% 至 5% .在第一季度之後，我們預計從第二季度到第四季度，利潤率將比上一年依次增長。

I will now pass the call back to Patrick who will provide some additional perspective on the priorities for 2023 and beyond.

我現在將電話轉回給帕特里克，他將就 2023 年及以後的優先事項提供一些額外的觀點。

Thanks, Luke. On Page 13, it summarizes our priorities for 2023. Driving operating leverage through our continued focus on pricing, improved asset utilization and cost optimization is first and foremost. Luke walked you through how we see a clear path over 100 basis points of margin expansion as a result of our ongoing efforts in these areas. And we think the longer-term opportunity is significantly greater than that.

謝謝，盧克。在第 13 頁，它總結了我們 2023 年的優先事項。通過我們持續關注定價、提高資產利用率和成本優化來提高運營槓桿是首要任務。 Luke 向您介紹了我們如何看到一條清晰的道路，由於我們在這些領域的持續努力，利潤率增長超過 100 個基點。我們認為長期機會遠不止於此。

When you consider the amount of M&A we've successfully undertaken over the past 2 years, there is a built in next leg up that can be realized as all these pieces gel together. All of the assets have been integrated into our systems and processes, but we know from our experiences over the years that there's still another layer of opportunity as the platform continues to solidify.

當你考慮我們在過去兩年中成功進行的併購數量時，當所有這些部分融合在一起時，可以實現一個內置的下一個支柱。所有資產都已集成到我們的系統和流程中，但我們從多年來的經驗中知道，隨著平台的不斷鞏固，還有另一層機會。

We see 2023 as a year to allow all of the businesses we've absorbed into our platform to mature and to ensure that we're capturing all of the opportunities that present, including implementing our pricing strategies in addition to the other self-help levers available to us. We, therefore, anticipate a more tempered level of M&A compared to prior years, deploying somewhere between 300 and $500 million into true tuck-in acquisitions that will continue to densify our platform and leverage our relatively fixed cost post-collection assets.

我們將 2023 年視為讓我們吸收到平台中的所有業務成熟並確保我們抓住所有出現的機會的一年，包括實施我們的定價策略以及其他自助槓桿提供給我們。因此，我們預計與前幾年相比，併購水平會有所緩和，將 300 至 5 億美元部署到真正的收購中，這將繼續緻密我們的平台並利用我們相對固定的成本後收款資產。

We have a pipeline as robust as ever and would anticipate 2024 returning to more historical levels of M&A, but in 2023, we expect a more moderate level of M&A activity, while we focus on our other value creation initiatives. It is important to remember that we, like the industry, are coming off a number of banner M&A years with COVID also pulling the timing of some of those deals forward.

我們擁有一如既往的強大渠道，預計 2024 年併購活動將恢復到歷史更高水平，但到 2023 年，我們預計併購活動將更加溫和，同時我們將專注於其他價值創造計劃。重要的是要記住，我們和這個行業一樣，正在經歷數個標誌性的併購年，而 COVID 也將其中一些交易的時間提前。

Bringing our first large-scale RNG plant online is one of our main priorities and initiatives, and Page 14 illustrates the expected cadence of the 20-plus projects we are actively working on. While the in-year contribution to revenue and EBITDA for 2023 is relatively immaterial, you can see the significant ramp through 2024 and 2025. These projections have been updated to reflect today's pricing environment of approximately 2 and $2.50 natural gas. Any improvements from these levels would be additive to the amount shown on the page. Even using these historic low levels, this opportunity would increase our consolidated margins by approximately 140 basis points. In addition, the evolving financing structures and tax incentives that are available for these projects have made the economic returns even more compelling than originally estimated.

讓我們的第一個大型 RNG 工廠上線是我們的主要優先事項和舉措之一，第 14 頁說明了我們正在積極開展的 20 多個項目的預期節奏。雖然年內對 2023 年收入和 EBITDA 的貢獻相對較小，但您可以看到到 2024 年和 2025 年的顯著增長。這些預測已經更新，以反映當今大約 2 美元和 2.50 美元的天然氣定價環境。這些級別的任何改進都會增加頁面上顯示的數量。即使使用這些歷史低位，這個機會也將使我們的綜合利潤率增加約 140 個基點。此外，這些項目不斷發展的融資結構和稅收激勵措施使經濟回報比最初估計的更具吸引力。

Another key initiative is the potential for the further rationalization of our portfolio, as we focus on maximizing our return on invested capital. Though some of the larger acquisitions completed in the past few years, we've acquired assets and operations in markets, given their specific market dynamics and geographic positioning that were never going to represent key growth opportunities for us. We've identified 3 distinct markets. And since our Q3 call, we have run a process and have now signed LOI to divest of these businesses for at least $1.5 billion in gross proceeds. We expect to have definitive agreements for each of these 3 businesses signed by Q2 with the sales to be completed by the end of Q3. We believe that selling these assets and using the proceeds to pay down our floating rate debt best positions us for sustainable industry-leading free cash flow growth over the mid term.

另一個關鍵舉措是進一步合理化我們的投資組合的潛力，因為我們專注於最大化我們的投資資本回報。儘管過去幾年完成了一些較大的收購，但我們已經收購了市場上的資產和業務，因為它們特定的市場動態和地理定位永遠不會代表我們的關鍵增長機會。我們確定了 3 個不同的市場。自我們第三季度電話會議以來，我們已經運行了一個流程，現在已經簽署了意向書，以至少 15 億美元的總收益剝離這些業務。我們希望在第二季度簽署這 3 項業務的最終協議，並在第三季度末完成銷售。我們認為，出售這些資產並使用所得款項償還我們的浮動利率債務最有利於我們在中期實現可持續的行業領先的自由現金流增長。

Additionally, as shown on Page 15, the proceeds of these asset sales would delever the balance sheet to below 4x, be immediately free cash flow accretive and materially accelerate the improvement in our free cash flow conversion and overall credit quality. As Luke mentioned, we expect these improvements will be reflected in improved credit ratings and lower cost of borrowing. We will provide updates on these asset sales as we progress.

此外，如第 15 頁所示，這些資產出售的收益將使資產負債表去槓桿化至 4 倍以下，立即增加自由現金流，並顯著加速我們自由現金流轉換和整體信用質量的改善。正如 Luke 提到的，我們預計這些改進將反映在信用評級的提高和借貸成本的降低上。隨著我們的進展，我們將提供這些資產出售的最新信息。

On ESG, as most of you know, we issued our 2021 Sustainability Report in late November that includes our full set of sustainability goals and targets for the first time. RNG is a big part of our achieving our near-term GHG reduction targets and as I've already highlighted how we are well on our way to implementing that as part of our plan.

在 ESG 方面，正如你們大多數人所知，我們在 11 月下旬發布了 2021 年可持續發展報告，其中首次包含了我們的全套可持續發展目標和具體目標。 RNG 是我們實現近期溫室氣體減排目標的重要組成部分，正如我已經強調的那樣，作為我們計劃的一部分，我們正在如何順利地實施這一目標。

We've been saying since we went public in 2020 that we were going to follow certain fundamental priorities to continue to successfully grow our business and that the impact following these priorities would be to get us to industry-leading metrics. That's where we are today on the back of our outperformance in 2022. The business is set up for what we think is a once in a generation opportunity for outsized organic operating leverage, supported by momentum in our pricing initiatives. And in the upside potential for additional contribution for our demonstrated ability to do highly-accretive densifying tuck-in M&A, bringing our RNG projects online in 2024 and 2025 and the impact of these asset divestitures I just described, we think there is a clear path to achieving our best-in-class EBITDA margins and driving materially higher free cash flow and generate free cash flow of over $1.1 billion by 2025.

自 2020 年上市以來，我們一直在說，我們將遵循某些基本優先事項，以繼續成功發展我們的業務，而遵循這些優先事項的影響將使我們達到行業領先的指標。這就是我們今天在 2022 年表現出色的背景下所處的位置。我們認為，在我們定價計劃勢頭的支持下，我們認為這是千載難逢的超大有機運營槓桿機會。在為我們展示的進行高增長密集型併購、在 2024 年和 2025 年使我們的 RNG 項目上線以及我剛才描述的這些資產剝離的影響方面的額外貢獻的上行潛力方面，我們認為有一條清晰的道路以實現我們一流的 EBITDA 利潤率並大幅提高自由現金流，到 2025 年產生超過 11 億美元的自由現金流。

I want to again recognize and thank our close to 20,000 employees for their exceptional commitment with GFL. It is their focus on building a sustainable company on providing these services for our customers with strong market pricing and above all, value creation for all of our stakeholders that has gotten us to where we are today. I want to thank each and every one of them for their efforts.

我想再次表彰並感謝我們近 20,000 名員工對 GFL 的卓越承諾。他們專注於建立一家可持續發展的公司，以強大的市場定價為我們的客戶提供這些服務，最重要的是，為我們所有的利益相關者創造價值，這讓我們走到今天。我要感謝他們每一個人的努力。

I will now turn the call over to our operator to open the line for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的接線員打開問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

Just on the pricing, you've got some good trends. Can you hear me, okay?

就定價而言，你有一些好的趨勢。你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Excellent. Okay. So just on the pricing, just looking at your book going into 2023. I know a lot of the contracts are tied to rates that reset at certain times. Can you talk to us a little bit about how much of your current projected 8% pricing is locked in for 2023 to give an indication of the certainty around that?

出色的。好的。所以就定價而言，看看你的書到 2023 年。我知道很多合同都與在特定時間重置的費率掛鉤。你能和我們談談你目前預計的 8% 定價中有多少鎖定到 2023 年，以表明這方面的確定性嗎？

Yes. Walter, it's Luke. I think we're really excited about our probability in achieving that when you think about 2022 and the abnormality of the pricing that happened throughout that year. And what I mean by that is if you think a normal annual pricing happens at the beginning of the year at ratably steps down well 2022 in response to the headwinds that we're seeing, you saw continued pricing activities throughout the back half of the year. And what that does is set us up for an unusual amount of pricing rollover that you have virtual certainty on. And so we're entering 2023 with about 55% of that price already baked purely from rollover. And then you have about another 30% of your planned pricing that happens in January. So you basically where you sit today, have great line of sight of 85%, 90% of what that total price number is going to be in 2023. And I think that further bolsters our confidence that we're setting that as a minimum level.

是的。沃爾特，是盧克。我認為，當你想到 2022 年以及那一年發生的定價異常時，我們對實現這一目標的可能性感到非常興奮。我的意思是，如果你認為正常的年度定價發生在年初，並在 2022 年大幅下降以應對我們所看到的逆風，你會看到整個下半年的持續定價活動.這樣做的目的是讓我們為您幾乎可以確定的異常數量的定價展期做好準備。因此，我們將進入 2023 年，其中約 55% 的價格已經純粹來自展期。然後你還有大約 30% 的計劃定價發生在 1 月份。所以你基本上在你今天坐的地方，有 85% 的視線，2023 年總價格的 90%。我認為這進一步增強了我們的信心，我們將其設置為最低水平.

That's fantastic. Okay. Moving over to M&A. And I know in past years, you've kind of given a target. I think last year it was around $500 million. You actually deployed $1.2 billion, so well above what you were targeting at the beginning of the year. But Patrick, you sounded -- you sounded this time that yes, you're looking for $300 million to $500 million, but you do indeed believe that this is going to be a more tempered year. Can you talk a bit about the rationale there? I mean is this an intentional effort to deliver? Or is it just a function of the availability of acquisitions out there? Maybe it's a bit of both, perhaps give us a little color on the basis for why you think it will be a much more tempered year on the M&A side?

這太妙了。好的。轉向併購。我知道在過去的幾年裡，你已經設定了一個目標。我認為去年大約是 5 億美元。您實際上部署了 12 億美元，遠遠高於您在年初設定的目標。但是帕特里克，你聽起來——你這次聽起來是的，你正在尋找 3 億到 5 億美元，但你確實相信這將是一個更加緩和的一年。你能談談那裡的基本原理嗎？我的意思是這是有意交付的努力嗎？或者它只是那裡收購可用性的函數？也許兩者兼而有之，也許在您認為今年併購方面會更加緩和的一年的基礎上給我們一些顏色？

Sure. I think it's consistent with what we've done historically, Walter. I mean if you look back with sort of the growth of GFL over 15 years, there'd be significant rants over 2 to 2.5 years, and then we would spend a year digesting and then ramp it back sort of up. And I think going public in sort of March of 2020, we went public because we knew there was a lot of M&A opportunity, particularly large scale that we were well positioned for and we needed to delever in order to achieve that goal.

當然。我認為這與我們過去所做的一致，沃爾特。我的意思是，如果你回顧過去 15 年 GFL 的增長情況，在 2 到 2.5 年內會有大量的咆哮，然後我們會花一年的時間消化，然後將其回升。而且我認為在 2020 年 3 月上市，我們上市是因為我們知道有很多併購機會，特別是我們處於有利地位的大規模併購，我們需要去槓桿化以實現這一目標。

When you look at what we've done, our plan back then was to double the size of the business over 5 to 6 years. The reality is, we doubled the size of the business over 2.5 years. So significant growth from $1 billion of EBITDA to over $2 billion of EBITDA in less than 3 years. All of that to be said, we're reacting to sort of what's happened in the market, and you've had this crazy inflationary environment. You had a real ramp-up in sort of interest costs.

當你看看我們所做的事情時，我們當時的計劃是在 5 到 6 年內將業務規模擴大一倍。事實上，我們在 2.5 年內將業務規模擴大了一倍。在不到 3 年的時間裡，EBITDA 從 10 億美元顯著增長到超過 20 億美元。綜上所述，我們正在對市場上發生的事情做出反應，而你已經經歷了這種瘋狂的通脹環境。您的利息成本確實有所增加。

And I think from our perspective, driving the organic growth layering in these pricing initiatives into the sort of base business, letting the business of time to sort of just seize them a little bit, get our procurement programs, making sure they're all rationalized and spending the year to do that is going to lead to outsized organic growth. And we can have a moderated spend of sort of $300 million to $500 million this year and then really ramp that back up in 2024. So -- and I think all of that put together will position this business like Luke said, to grow at more than 20-plus percent free cash flow growth over the next sort of 3 to 4 years on an annual basis by putting in place all those pieces of the puzzle.

我認為，從我們的角度來看，推動這些定價舉措中的有機增長分層到某種基礎業務中，讓業務有時間稍微抓住它們，制定我們的採購計劃，確保它們都合理化花一年的時間來做到這一點將導致超大規模的有機增長。我們今年可以有 3 億到 5 億美元的適度支出，然後在 2024 年真正增加支出。所以——我認為所有這些加在一起將使這項業務像盧克所說的那樣，以更高的速度增長通過解決所有這些難題，在接下來的 3 到 4 年內，自由現金流每年增長 20% 以上。

We're very confident in that. Listen, if there is an exceptional opportunity that comes at, we're not going to obviously miss it for no reason just to say for this. But I think where we sit today, our focus is going to be on keeping that spend in the $300 million to $500 million barring something that comes up that we really, really want to do.

我們對此非常有信心。聽著，如果有一個特殊的機會出現，我們顯然不會無緣無故地錯過它。但我認為我們今天所處的位置，我們的重點是將支出保持在 3 億至 5 億美元，除非出現我們真正非常想做的事情。

Excellent. That makes a lot of sense. And just a last quick one. The divestiture is the 3 LOIs, does that cover the entire $1.5 billion you're projecting? Or are you expecting more agreements to get up to the $1.5 billion?

出色的。這很有意義。最後一個快速的。資產剝離是 3 個 LOI，這是否涵蓋了您預計的全部 15 億美元？還是您希望達成更多協議以達到 15 億美元？

No. So that -- so as we've highlighted in the past, it's 3 market areas. I can even update a little bit. One of the -- one of the transactions actually got signed last night. So we're down to 2 LOIs, one -- we have one definitive agreement. That one definitive agreement represents almost 50% of the proceeds. So the other 2 agreements will represent the other 50%. I would say the $1.5 billion is a conservative number. I think as you know, we've always been conservative. That number will probably be in excess of the $1.5 billion, but we've just taken a conservative view. But I think from our perspective, one agreement is now signed. That represents over 50%, and we expect the proceeds to be more than the $1.5 billion.

不，所以 - 正如我們過去強調的那樣，它是 3 個市場領域。我什至可以更新一點。其中一項——其中一項交易實際上是在昨晚簽署的。所以我們只剩下 2 個意向書，一個——我們有一個最終協議。該最終協議幾乎佔收益的 50%。所以其他 2 個協議將代表另外 50%。我會說 15 億美元是一個保守的數字。我想如你所知，我們一直很保守。這個數字可能會超過 15 億美元，但我們只是採取了保守的觀點。但我認為從我們的角度來看，現在已經簽署了一項協議。這代表了 50% 以上，我們預計收益將超過 15 億美元。

The next question comes from Michael Hoffman from Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Michael Hoffman。

Luke, I was writing and didn't get the numbers, I'm sure. If I -- what is the CapEx number you said you're going to guide to? And how does that compare to the $780 million. Just want to make sure I understand this CapEx, right? $780 million is in your 2022 cash flow statement, what's going to be in the cash flow statement in 2023?

盧克，我正在寫信，但沒有得到數字，我敢肯定。如果我 - 你說你要指導的資本支出數字是多少？與 7.8 億美元相比如何？只是想確保我了解這個資本支出，對嗎？ 7.8 億美元在您的 2022 年現金流量表中，2023 年的現金流量表中將包含什麼？

$780 million in the 2022 CapEx is excluding RNG, Michael. We've been talking about the numbers together. So we have $830 in the 2022 statement including R&G sort of spend on that. What we're saying for this year is that number will be comparable in that $830 range. You're expecting about $20 million of proceeds from asset small little asset sales, so you would have a net CapEx number of $810 million. And the comment about $830 million in both years being comparable, recall that 2022 had outsized spend because of the $150 million we received in late 2021 that we employed at the beginning of 2022.

2022 年資本支出中的 7.8 億美元不包括 RNG，邁克爾。我們一直在談論數字。因此，我們在 2022 年的報表中有 830 美元，包括 R&G 在這方面的支出。我們今年要說的是，這個數字將在 830 美元的範圍內具有可比性。您預計從小型資產出售中獲得約 2000 萬美元的收益，因此您的淨資本支出將為 8.1 億美元。關於這兩年 8.3 億美元的評論具有可比性，回想一下，由於我們在 2021 年底收到的 1.5 億美元在 2022 年初使用，因此 2022 年的支出過大。

And cash flow from ops is forecast at what for 2022?

預計 2022 年來自運營的現金流量是多少？

Well, with $810 million to $815 million of net CapEx, that would imply cash flow from ops, about $1.5 billion before any adjustments.

好吧，淨資本支出為 8.1 億至 8.15 億美元，這意味著來自運營的現金流在任何調整前約為 15 億美元。

Okay. So there are no adjustments then in the 2023 free cash flow then?

好的。那麼 2023 年的自由現金流沒有調整嗎？

Well, we don't forecast end of year transaction cost that roughly what's been running $60 million to $70 million of transaction costs a year. We never include the forecast due to the uncertainty of the timing and quantum of those amounts. As Patrick said, with $300 million to $500 million spend, there would be a certain degree of that. But none of that is included in our forecast. So that would be a reduction to that financial statement presented cash flow from ops, the extent and magnitude of any transaction costs that we add back.

好吧，我們預計年終交易成本不會像每年大約 6000 萬到 7000 萬美元的交易成本那樣預測。由於這些金額的時間和數量的不確定性，我們從不包括預測。正如帕特里克所說，如果花費 3 億到 5 億美元，就會有一定程度的支出。但這些都沒有包括在我們的預測中。因此，這將減少財務報表中顯示的來自運營的現金流量，我們加回的任何交易成本的範圍和幅度。

Okay. So it's a powerful statement though that you've got a -- your simple free cash flow in 2022 was about $350 million. You're doubling the simple free cash classic cash flow from ops less all capital spending, no adjustments. That's a pretty powerful statement.

好的。所以這是一個強有力的聲明，儘管你有一個——你在 2022 年的簡單自由現金流約為 3.5 億美元。您將來自運營的簡單自由現金經典現金流量加倍，減去所有資本支出，無需調整。這是一個非常有力的聲明。

I would agree, and I think when you consider being achieved in the construct of the inflation interest rate environment, I mean, you have a $100 million interest rate headwind. Now it's a very meaningful headwind of that cash flow number and you're still achieving those results. So yes, we're very excited about watching the free cash flow sort of come through as we had articulated it would.

我同意，我認為當你考慮在通貨膨脹利率環境的構建中實現時，我的意思是，你有 1 億美元的利率逆風。現在，這是該現金流量的一個非常有意義的逆風，而您仍在取得這些成果。所以是的，我們很高興看到自由現金流像我們所說的那樣實現。

Okay. And just to be clear, and I don't want to belabor this, if you had been able to spend everything you wanted to spend, you would have done $640 million, but this year would have been $750 million. It's as simple as that. It's not any more complicated, right?

好的。明確一點，我不想多說，如果你能花掉你想花的所有東西，你會做 6.4 億美元，但今年會是 7.5 億美元。就這麼簡單。沒有更複雜，對吧？

Yes, correct. I think there may have been a different opportunity on working capital. If you were going to come in that light than maybe you would have been a little bit more aggressive and been able to make that $640 million something a little bit better in 2022, but you're thinking about that exactly right, Michael.

是，對的。我認為營運資金可能有不同的機會。如果你要從這個角度考慮，你可能會更積極一點，並能夠在 2022 年將這 6.4 億美元做得更好一些，但你的想法完全正確，邁克爾。

Okay. And then bridging to the $700 million is working capital a source or use in '23?

好的。然後過渡到 7 億美元是營運資金在 23 世紀的來源或用途？

With simplifying assumption, working capital is a modest source that offsets the modest use for cash taxes and landfill closure, post closure.

通過簡化假設，營運資金是一個適度的來源，可以抵消關閉後現金稅和垃圾填埋場關閉的適度使用。

Okay. And then interest, we know, recycling is a headwind?

好的。然後是興趣，我們知道，回收是一個逆風？

Recycling is a material headwind in 2023. We have assumed...

回收是 2023 年的一大逆風。我們假設……

Right. And then fuel is... Sorry, I'm saying I'm -- probably been talking over you. What were you saying?

正確的。然後燃料是......對不起，我是說我 - 可能一直在談論你。你在說什麼？

No. Yes. recycling, we just -- we've assumed no improvement in the current levels. And so that represents a material headwind going into 2023.

不，是的。回收，我們只是 - 我們假設當前水平沒有改善。因此，這代表了進入 2023 年的重大逆風。

And fuel is -- you've had a real fuel cost drag, not just a pass-through drag in '22. So that should be a tailwind in '23 because you're making up for that...

燃料是——你有一個真正的燃料成本拖累，而不僅僅是 22 年的傳遞拖累。所以這應該是 23 年的順風，因為你正在彌補這一點......

Yes. So fuel using the end of 2022 rates, I think the price was roughly 8% below what your average fuel cost was in 2022. So that will be a modest tailwind at the cost line.

是的。因此，使用 2022 年底費率的燃料，我認為價格比 2022 年的平均燃料成本低大約 8%。因此，這將是成本線的適度順風。

And then price and organic growth makes up the difference to get flat. So I mean they've got a couple of hundred million dollars of the headwinds getting offset by couple of hundred million with a positive, most of which is organic growth?

然後價格和有機增長彌補差異以持平。所以我的意思是他們有幾億美元的逆風被兩億美元抵消了積極的，其中大部分是有機增長？

Correct.

正確的。

Right. That's the other part. Okay. And then on your cash interest, Patrick, you're at 6.7% of revenues today. Your peers are 2.5% to 3%. You're going to take $100 million of that out going into '24 based on these asset sales. Basically, if I'm getting in line with the peers on a revenue percentage basis, it's -- I got $250 million I'm playing with it. What's the thoughts about when the next $150 million comes out?

正確的。那是另一部分。好的。然後，帕特里克，你的現金利息佔今天收入的 6.7%。你的同行是 2.5% 到 3%。根據這些資產銷售，你將在 24 世紀拿出其中的 1 億美元。基本上，如果我在收入百分比的基礎上與同行保持一致，那就是——我有 2.5 億美元在玩。下一個 1.5 億美元何時出來有什麼想法？

Yes. I don't know if it's going to come out. I think it's -- you're going to sort of grow into it as the EBITDA grows, you're going to grow into the sort of delevering process. But I think what we said is we are committed to exiting 2023 with a 3 in front of our leverage number. I think when you look at what the opportunity is now and what we're positioning ourselves to do is take this dutiful platform and mature into what you would see sort of normal course other public companies. And I think you sort of said it right in your note is, we are going to move to investment grade, right? So this squarely puts us on the path to do that on an expedited basis. It may take a couple of years post delevering because the rating agencies like to look on a sort of trailing basis. But we're going to get there. We pushed out, as Luke said, our term loan refinancing into 2027, what people seem concerned about earlier because of the maturity for the 2025 maturity. We renewed that at a lower rate than we currently had. And then as that all comes down, we think -- listen, I mean, you can look at Waste Connections refi their term loan at. They're investment grade, they refi their term loan at software plus 75 bps, 85 bps. Our term loans that software plus 300 bps. So there's material savings that are going to come from the capital structure over the next 2 to 3 years as we get to refinance the capital structure and lower leverage closer to 3 to 3.5 turns from the high-3s we're going to end this year at. So I think over the next couple of years, you're going to see that just beautifully gravitate towards everyone else is at this point. And that you're going to see a transfer of value from the debt holders to the equity holders, right? And that's going to be -- that's going to be very sort of powerful from an equity value creation standpoint.

是的。不知道會不會出來。我認為它是——隨著 EBITDA 的增長，你將在某種程度上成長為它，你將成長為一種去槓桿化的過程。但我認為我們所說的是我們致力於在我們的槓桿數字前加上 3 退出 2023 年。我認為，當你看到現在的機會是什麼時，我們將自己定位為利用這個盡職盡責的平台，成熟到你會看到的其他上市公司的正常過程中。而且我認為您在筆記中說得對，我們將轉向投資級，對嗎？因此，這直接讓我們走上了加快步伐的道路。去槓桿後可能需要幾年時間，因為評級機構喜歡在某種尾隨基礎上進行觀察。但我們會到達那裡。正如盧克所說，我們將定期貸款再融資推遲到 2027 年，人們似乎更早擔心這一點，因為 2025 年到期。我們以比目前更低的速度更新了它。然後當一切都結束時，我們認為 - 聽著，我的意思是，你可以看看 Waste Connections 重新確定他們的定期貸款。他們是投資級別的，他們以軟件加上 75 個基點、85 個基點的利率重新支付他們的定期貸款。我們的定期貸款軟件加上 300 個基點。因此，在未來 2 到 3 年內，隨著我們對資本結構進行再融資並將槓桿率從我們將在今年結束的高 3 倍降低接近 3 到 3.5 倍，資本結構將帶來實質性的節省在。所以我認為在接下來的幾年裡，你會看到在這一點上，所有人都被美妙地吸引住了。你會看到價值從債務持有人轉移到股權持有人，對吧？從股權價值創造的角度來看，這將是非常強大的。

Right. So from a modeling standpoint, if you hit the investment grade, just to follow this point, as you do the refis in 27 and beyond, the cash interest number theoretically is coming down on the same level of debt because you're going to have a better borrowing cost. And there's the leverage and -- the financial leverage into your free cash flow let alone the operating leverage.

正確的。因此，從建模的角度來看，如果你達到投資級別，只要遵循這一點，就像你在 27 歲及以後進行再融資一樣，現金利息數字理論上會下降到與債務相同的水平，因為你將擁有更好的借貸成本。還有槓桿和 - 對您的自由現金流的財務槓桿，更不用說運營槓桿了。

Correct.

正確的。

The next question comes from Kevin Chiang from CIBC.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Kevin Chiang。

Maybe just a clarification on Walter's earlier question. So if I look at the $1.5 billion of gross proceeds and the adjusted EBITDA that would be removed from the consolidated results. It sounds like you're transacting these about 12.5x to 15x that $1.5 billion includes the full, I guess, divestiture amounts that you've laid out on Slide 15 here.

也許只是對 Walter 先前問題的澄清。因此，如果我看一下將從合併結果中刪除的 15 億美元的總收益和調整後的 EBITDA。聽起來你的交易量是 12.5 到 15 倍，15 億美元包括你在幻燈片 15 上列出的全部資產剝離金額。

Yes, Kevin, it's Luke. So I think on Slide 15, we're saying $100 million to $110 million of EBITDA potentially. So if you take the midpoint of that range at $1.5 billion, that's a 14x forward number, right, because that's our 2023 guidance on those, it's probably 1.5 turn higher on a trailing number. And as Patrick said, there's probably an opportunity for proceeds slightly in excess of this, which would yield a multiple right in the middle of that mid-teens fairway that we had articulated the are possible as being.

是的，凱文，我是盧克。所以我認為在幻燈片 15 上，我們說的 EBITDA 可能為 1 億至 1.1 億美元。因此，如果您將該範圍的中點設為 15 億美元，那麼這是一個 14 倍的遠期數字，對吧，因為這是我們 2023 年的指導，它可能比尾隨數字高出 1.5 倍。正如帕特里克所說，可能有機會獲得略高於此的收益，這將在我們已經闡明的可能的十幾歲球道中間產生倍數。

Okay. That's excellent. It seems like -- I mean the gross proceeds, obviously, a large amount. It feels as though the assets that are being sold, maybe back in November, the quantum of EBITDA potential was a tad higher. Does that suggest there's more opportunities here to divest of noncore assets even after you kind of go through this more significant portfolio rationalization? Or have you kind of touched on all the assets you think you need to divest of or shed the markets that you don't think you're going to invest in to grow?

好的。那太好了。看起來 - 我的意思是總收益，顯然是一大筆錢。感覺好像正在出售的資產，也許回到 11 月，EBITDA 潛力的數量略高。這是否表明即使在你經歷了這種更重要的投資組合合理化之後，這裡仍有更多機會剝離非核心資產？或者您是否觸及了所有您認為需要剝離或擺脫您認為不會投資以實現增長的市場的資產？

Yes. I think the November comment came from the fact because we had a lot of inbounds over the last year about different parts of the business. I think when we sat down with all of our operators, we went through it, this is what we said we're going to do this once. There's going to be one big sweep, and this is what we were going to do. And this is what we sort of shuck out. And I think, listen, these assets, they're great assets. They just -- I think they're of a higher and better use to somebody else and in markets where either we're geographically sort of disadvantaged during their markets where there's multiple sort of strategies. And I just think when I look at the opportunity set of where we can deploy incremental capital into M&A and incremental organic initiatives, we're going to do it in other markets where we have the ability that we can grow at a much higher clip and have a better return on our invested capital. And I think when you look at that, that's what we're doing. So these assets will be perfectly situated in others' hands, who have a larger presence in those markets, and I think they will do very well with them. But from our perspective, they just -- they weren't a priority for us in markets that we were actually going to spend a lot of time in. So hence, we kill 2 birds with one stone, getting of those have a significant amount of incremental capital to grow in the markets where we want to grow. And at the same time, set us up on the path to delevering, particularly in an interest rate environment that's uncertain and it's going to set us up to expedite our ability to get to investment grade. So all those coupled together, we think will yield great equity value creation for all the stakeholders involved here. So that was the sort of rationale behind it.

是的。我認為 11 月的評論來自於事實，因為我們在去年有很多關於業務不同部分的入站。我想當我們與所有運營商坐下來討論時，我們都經歷過，這就是我們說過要這樣做一次。將會有一場大掃蕩，這就是我們要做的。這就是我們想要擺脫的東西。我認為，聽著，這些資產，它們是很好的資產。他們只是 - 我認為他們對其他人和市場有更高更好的用途，在這些市場中，我們在有多種策略的市場中處於不利地位。而且我只是認為，當我看到我們可以將增量資本部署到併購和增量有機計劃的機會集時，我們將在我們有能力以更高的速度增長的其他市場上這樣做我們的投資資本有更好的回報。我認為，當您看到這一點時，這就是我們正在做的事情。因此，這些資產將完全掌握在那些在這些市場中佔有更大份額的其他人手中，我認為他們會做得很好。但從我們的角度來看，它們只是 - 在我們實際上要花很多時間的市場中，它們並不是我們的優先事項。因此，我們用一塊石頭殺死 2 隻鳥，得到這些鳥有很大的數量增量資本在我們想要增長的市場中增長。同時，讓我們走上去槓桿化的道路，特別是在不確定的利率環境下，這將使我們加快達到投資級別的能力。因此，所有這些結合在一起，我們認為將為這裡涉及的所有利益相關者創造巨大的股權價值。這就是它背後的理由。

There is a significant amount of opportunity. So it's kind of -- it's not like if someone asked the question, did you do this because you wanted it just had to delever. This had nothing to do with delevering. Yes, it's a fill that requirement as well, but at the same time, it was just the right thing to do about where we want to deploy capital, and that's what we did. So our expectation is that we should -- like I said, we signed one definitive agreement last night after we actually reported, which leaves -- which is over 50% of the dollars we're going to be repatriating -- and then the other 2, we expect over the next little while here, and we'll expect to close them between sometime in late Q2 and early Q3 as we go through the regulatory process. But for your benefit, we selected partners, and we've done all of that DOJ analysis to make sure going in that we didn't think there were any issues with anyone. That was a big part of the criteria in selecting who actually acquired the businesses. So it's a wonderful thing, and I think it's going to yield a great result.

有大量的機會。所以這有點——這不像有人問這個問題，你這樣做是因為你希望它只需要去槓桿化。這與去槓桿無關。是的，這也滿足了這一要求，但與此同時，這正是我們想要部署資本的正確做法，這就是我們所做的。所以我們的期望是我們應該 - 就像我說的那樣，我們昨晚在實際報告後簽署了一項最終協議，留下 - 這是我們將匯回的美元的 50％以上 - 然後是另一個2，我們預計在接下來的一段時間內，我們預計會在第二季度末和第三季度初的某個時候關閉它們，因為我們將通過監管程序。但是為了您的利益，我們選擇了合作夥伴，並且我們已經完成了所有 DOJ 分析，以確保我們認為任何人都沒有任何問題。這是選擇實際收購企業的標準的重要組成部分。所以這是一件很棒的事情，我認為它會產生很好的結果。

I agree with you. And maybe just last question for me. Your organic growth within the U.S. Solid Waste business is tracking nicely ahead of what you're seeing in Canada. Just want -- is there anything to call out there? Is it primarily just you've owned Canada longer, so there's just more low-hanging fruit, I guess, from an organic growth perspective in the U.S.? Or are you seeing something different in the volume or pricing environment between the 2 countries?

我同意你的看法。也許只是我的最後一個問題。您在美國固體廢物業務中的有機增長比您在加拿大看到的情況要好。只是想——有什麼要說的嗎？主要是因為你擁有加拿大的時間更長，所以我猜，從美國的有機增長角度來看，有更多唾手可得的果實嗎？或者您是否看到這兩個國家之間的數量或定價環境有所不同？

Kevin, it's Luke speaking. I think it has more to do with our mix. If you think about when we talk about our CTI linked revenue, we have a greater proportion of that in our Canadian book of business in the U.S. And that has obviously been the tranche of revenue that has been the anchor to your blended price. So actually, I think when you roll into 2023 and you finally get those CPI resets breaking that mid-single-digit level, you're going to start to see more price acceleration in Canada as we finally get that sort of catch up.

凱文，我是盧克。我認為這更多地與我們的組合有關。如果你想想當我們談論我們的 CTI 相關收入時，我們在美國的加拿大業務簿中有更大比例的收入，這顯然是收入的一部分，它一直是你們混合價格的基礎。所以實際上，我認為當你進入 2023 年並且你最終將 CPI 重新設置為突破中個位數水平時，你將開始看到加拿大的價格加速上漲，因為我們終於趕上了。

So the pricing environment in Canada, we think is equally attractive on a like-for-like basis from service levels. I think it is the revenue mix that is driving that delta more than anything.

因此，我們認為加拿大的定價環境在服務水平方面同樣具有吸引力。我認為是收入組合最能推動這一增長。

The next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Can we talk about price cost, just the cadence over the course of the year. You are obviously offsetting all of the inflation. So it looks like you're starting out with something like 10 points pricing, 10 points of inflation. And based on the margin guidance, it looks like you're planning to exit with 7 points of price, 3 points of inflation just directionally. But I'm wondering if we might be able to put a finer point on that and see how you folks are anticipating that spread as the year progresses?

我們能談談價格成本嗎，只是一年中的節奏。你顯然是在抵消所有的通貨膨脹。所以看起來你是從 10 點定價，10 點通貨膨脹開始的。根據保證金指導，您似乎計劃以 7 個價格點和 3 個定向通貨膨脹點退出。但我想知道我們是否可以對此提出一個更好的觀點，看看你們如何預測隨著時間的推移這種傳播？

Jerry, you did my work for me. You summarized it quite well. It is very much a tale of sort of 2 halves on the cost side where you start the year are I think Q1 is a double-digit number. And then it steps down sort of ratably throughout the year and it will really be an H1 versus H2. I think it's important to understand, in addition to the pure unit cost inflation, we're also just looking at removal or absence of some of these onetime costs that we incurred this year, like truck rentals as being an example. So when you're getting to that lower single-digit number in the back end of the year at cost, it's not just unit cost, but it's also just cost avoidance for some of these onetime costs we had, particularly in the back half of this year.

傑里，你為我做了我的工作。你總結的很好。在今年開始的成本方面，這很大程度上是一個兩半的故事，我認為 Q1 是一個兩位數的數字。然後它會在全年中逐漸下降，這實際上是 H1 與 H2。我認為重要的是要了解，除了純單位成本通脹之外，我們還只是在考慮去除或不存在我們今年發生的一些一次性成本，例如卡車租賃。因此，當您在年底以成本獲得較低的個位數時，這不僅僅是單位成本，而且還只是我們避免的一些一次性成本的成本，特別是在後半部分今年。

At the pricing level, I think we're anticipating in the guide a more normal course pricing cadence what that is, is Q1 being the highest, and you're right, we're expecting double-digit number there. And then that ratably steps down, call it, 100 basis points, 125 basis points a quarter as you move through the year, which is the more typical pricing cadence. Obviously, if our assessment or expectations or cost inflation are different than what we just said, we are demonstrated an openness to go after more price in year, and we will continue to do so to the extent, and that's what's necessary to drive our appropriate return. But the guide today is predicated on that cadence I just described.

在定價層面，我認為我們在指南中預計會有更正常的課程定價節奏，也就是說，第一季度是最高的，你是對的，我們期待那裡有兩位數的數字。然後隨著一年的推移，每季度下降 100 個基點、125 個基點，這是更典型的定價節奏。顯然，如果我們的評估或預期或成本通脹與我們剛才所說的不同，我們將表現出追求更高價格的開放態度，我們將在一定程度上繼續這樣做，這是推動我們適當的必要條件返回。但今天的指南是基於我剛才描述的節奏。

Super. And can we shift gears and talk about the divested asset where you have a definitive agreement. I'm wondering, Patrick, if you wouldn't mind sharing what the market position was of that asset? And what's the anticipated gain? Is it similar to the transactions that you folks did was at a year or so ago?

極好的。我們能否換檔並討論您已達成最終協議的剝離資產？帕特里克，我想知道你是否介意分享該資產的市場地位？預期收益是多少？它與你們一年左右前所做的交易相似嗎？

So it wasn't a significant -- sorry, yes, we're not going to let that market -- once I think we hop in everybody wants those definitive agreements are signed, and it's just from -- we have NDAs with everyone. But I think from that perspective, like I said, we had 3 markets which were the Colorado market, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and natural market was a market we were interested in sort of looking to divest. As for your other comment on what we acquired in the last years, what was that?

所以這不是一個重要的 - 抱歉，是的，我們不會讓那個市場 - 一旦我認為我們跳入每個人都希望簽署這些最終協議，而且它只是來自 - 我們與每個人都有保密協議。但我認為從那個角度來看，就像我說的那樣，我們有 3 個市場，分別是科羅拉多市場、賓夕法尼亞州、馬里蘭州、特拉華州和自然市場，這是我們有興趣尋求剝離的市場。至於您對我們在過去幾年中獲得的其他評論，那是什麼？

No. So you had a significant gain on your last sort of divestitures and you were something like #4 or #5 in the markets you divested. So I'm wondering if you could give us a...

不，所以你在上一次資產剝離中獲得了顯著收益，並且在你剝離的市場中排名第四或第五。所以我想知道你是否可以給我們一個...

Yes. So in all the assets, we are 3 -- third or below. So there's 2 others that are larger than us in the market. So -- and their markets with sort of multiple strategies, right? So as you know, we've -- our experience has been -- we like to be in sort of duopoly type market, secondary markets. These are markets where we're divesting of -- we are third and fourth position. So we just didn't see a path to deploying incremental dollars into those markets to be able to grow them significantly from the position we already have.

是的。所以在所有資產中，我們是 3 - 第三或以下。所以市場上還有 2 個比我們大的。那麼——他們的市場有多種策略，對吧？因此，正如您所知，我們已經 - 我們的經驗一直是 - 我們喜歡進入某種雙頭壟斷類型的市場，即二級市場。這些是我們正在剝離的市場——我們排名第三和第四。因此，我們只是沒有看到將增量美元部署到這些市場以能夠從我們已經擁有的位置顯著增長它們的途徑。

Got it. Could you shift gears and talk about landfill gas. Thank you for the update on the earnings cadence. Can you just talk about the off take agreements and how those are trending. We're hearing that for voluntary markets, the market has remained in the 20s, even though Henry Hub has gas has obviously come in. I'm wondering if you could just comment on if you're seeing that as well? And just give us an update on your contracted status relative to the pipeline?

知道了。你能換檔談談垃圾填埋氣嗎？感謝您更新收益節奏。你能談談承購協議以及這些協議的趨勢嗎？我們聽說對於自願市場，市場一直保持在 20 年代，儘管亨利中心顯然有天然氣進入。我想知道你是否可以評論一下你是否也看到了？並向我們提供有關您與管道相關的合同狀態的最新信息？

Yes. So we haven't locked in anything sort of long term yet. Obviously, we've been sort of watching the tough settle, particularly around the E-RINs, et cetera, and then what was going to happen sort of the long-term pricing around RINs. We knew there was going to be some compression for sure this year. I don't think people expected $2 RINs, but I think $2.50 to $2.70 RINs was a lot of people were hoping. I think, again, as the voluntary market, demand continues to come on. We think, like you said, there's a lot of demand for having a long-term supply agreement. So as we move into getting these projects online in the near term, we will then look at sort of entering into somewhere between 7 and 20-year agreements for a good portion of the fuel. But as of this minute, we haven't locked into anything yet. But you are correct, that pricing still exists and people are taking a longer-term view versus taking a view of the shorter-term movements.

是的。所以我們還沒有鎖定任何長期計劃。顯然，我們一直在關注艱難的解決方案，特別是圍繞 E-RIN 等，然後是圍繞 RIN 的長期定價將會發生什麼。我們知道今年肯定會有一些壓縮。我不認為人們期望 2 美元的 RIN，但我認為很多人都希望 2.50 美元到 2.70 美元的 RIN。我認為，作為自願市場，需求會繼續增長。我們認為，就像您所說的那樣，對簽訂長期供應協議的需求很大。因此，當我們在短期內讓這些項目上線時，我們將考慮就大部分燃料簽訂 7 到 20 年的協議。但截至目前，我們還沒有鎖定任何東西。但你是對的，定價仍然存在，人們從長遠來看，而不是短期走勢。

And can I (inaudible) for your views on e-RIN, so it looks like the subsidy is going to have something like $0.30 to $0.40 per kilowatt hour free subsidies. I'm wondering with your footprint as it stands today, how much electricity do you folks generate from gas to electric. And how are you thinking about that opportunity? I know it's early stages, but we would love to get your thoughts.

我能否（聽不清）了解您對 e-RIN 的看法，所以看起來補貼將有大約每千瓦時 0.30 至 0.40 美元的免費補貼。我想知道你們今天的足跡，你們這些人從天然氣到電力產生了多少電力。您如何看待這個機會？我知道這是早期階段，但我們很想听聽您的想法。

Yes. Jerry, it's Luke. Look, we're excited with e-RINs as we view it as another incremental opportunity that's not sort of in our portfolio. I mean today, we have 5 landfills that have existing landfill gas electricity operating. Now those are under royalty agreements with third parties, but all those sort of roll off and at which time we can sort of revisit those under the sort of e-RIN landscape. And then there's other landfills. I mean, as you know, electricity build-out much less capital intensive than RNG. So we have some other sites that we're evaluating that may also be good potential sort of host sites. And so we've yet to quantify the benefits. As you know, we need to understand a little bit more where it's all going to sort of shake out. But this would be additive to our current sort of RNG and landfill gas related economics, and we're excited to monitor the progress, and we'll provide updates as we get more certainty there.

是的。傑瑞，是盧克。看，我們對 e-RIN 感到很興奮，因為我們將其視為另一個不屬於我們投資組合的增量機會。我的意思是，今天，我們有 5 個垃圾填埋場，這些垃圾填埋場現有垃圾填埋氣發電。現在，這些都與第三方簽訂了特許權使用費協議，但所有這些都已結束，屆時我們可以在 e-RIN 領域重新審視那些。然後還有其他垃圾填埋場。我的意思是，如你所知，電力建設的資本密集程度遠低於 RNG。因此，我們還有一些正在評估的其他網站，它們也可能是不錯的潛在託管網站。所以我們還沒有量化收益。如您所知，我們需要更多地了解一切將在何處發生變化。但這將增加我們目前的 RNG 和垃圾填埋場氣體相關經濟學，我們很高興監控進展，我們將在我們獲得更多確定性時提供更新。

The next question comes from Tyler Brown from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Tyler Brown。

On the 100 basis points on EBITDA for new guide, can you just talk about some of those really pieces, specifically how much is commodities, M&A? And do you expect it to be an actual tailwind on this sale target range?

關於新指南的 EBITDA 的 100 個基點，您能否談談其中一些真正的部分，具體來說，商品、併購是多少？您是否希望它成為這個銷售目標範圍內的真正順風？

Tyler, we're having real difficulty hearing your line. I think you asked about the 100 basis point margin expansion. I'm going to respond to that. And hopefully, that was sort of the right question... So look, if you think about the 100 basis points, I mean, if you break it down by segment, right? Talking about our Solid Waste segment first, we're actually anticipating upwards of 200 basis points in Solid Waste when you think about the commodity headwind, right? So commodities, if you assume at the current basket price, it's about a $50 million headwind just from our sales of commodity. And that alone is about a sort of 60 basis point headwind at the Solid Waste margin line.

泰勒，我們真的很難聽到你的台詞。我想你問的是 100 個基點的保證金擴張。我要對此做出回應。希望這是一個正確的問題......所以看，如果你考慮 100 個基點，我的意思是，如果你按部分細分，對吧？首先談論我們的固體廢物部分，當您考慮商品逆風時，我們實際上預計固體廢物將超過 200 個基點，對嗎？因此，如果您以當前的一攬子價格假設大宗商品，僅我們的大宗商品銷售就會產生大約 5000 萬美元的逆風。僅此一項就在固體廢物邊際線處產生了大約 60 個基點的逆風。

We have incremental headwind in those locations where we use third-party disposal, right? And now that rebate. That part is often not talked about. We probably have another 15 basis point, 20 basis point headwind coming out of that. So Solid Waste anticipating a 150 basis point margin as is, you actually -- that's closer to 200 basis point when you think about the headwind coming from the commodities.

在我們使用第三方處置的那些地方，我們遇到了越來越大的阻力，對吧？現在回扣。這部分通常不會被談論。我們可能還有另外 15 個基點、20 個基點的不利因素。所以固體廢物預計 150 個基點的利潤率，你實際上 - 當你考慮來自商品的逆風時，它接近 200 個基點。

Environmental Services, also anticipating a sort of 200 basis point plus margin expansion, I think it's actually mid-200s. And that's really a function of, as Patrick said, prioritizing quality of revenue over quantity and really starting to leverage the sort of fixed cost base structure that we have there.

環境服務，也預計會有 200 個基點加上利潤率擴張，我認為實際上是 200 多個基點。正如帕特里克所說，這實際上是一個功能，將收入質量置於數量之上，並真正開始利用我們現有的那種固定成本基礎結構。

If you think about those 2 margin expansions in the segment, the third piece is the corporate cost bucket. As we said, we are anticipating incremental investment, primarily around IT-related costs in the corporate segment, and that's going to see an incremental sort of $30 million, $45 million spend in the year as we sort of bolster our sort of transition to the cloud and all the sort of securities associated with that.

如果您考慮該細分市場中的那兩個利潤率擴張，那麼第三部分就是公司成本桶。正如我們所說，我們預計將增加投資，主要圍繞企業部門的 IT 相關成本，並且隨著我們加強向雲以及與之相關的所有種類的證券。

So you're going to see expecting that corporate cost bucket in that sort of 325 basis points, 330 basis points of revenue, which is somewhat offsetting that very strong organic EBITDA margin expansion in both solid and liquid M&A, I mean the rollover in fact, 3.5% to 4% top line. That's a slight drag, I'd call it, 25 basis point drag. I think it's what we have in the plan today coming out of that M&A.

所以你會看到預期公司成本桶在 325 個基點，330 個基點的收入，這在一定程度上抵消了固體和流動併購中非常強勁的有機 EBITDA 利潤率擴張，我的意思是事實上的展期, 3.5% 至 4% 頂線。這是一個輕微的拖累，我稱之為 25 個基點的拖累。我認為這就是我們今天從併購中得出的計劃。

And then fuel, your last point, look, fuel cost sting alone, direct fuel pass-through, as I said, our surcharge is more mature and the fuel price actually slightly coming down. So not a significant impact there, a slight tailwind. But what we do have is this indirect fuel pass-through that was really prominent in the second half of 2022. What we mean by this is the third-party transport providers and disposal providers that came with incremental price to recover their own energy costs. Those represent a pretty meaningful headwind as we go into next year by virtue of lapping those costs that arose really in the second half. So we'll see how that plays out if energy prices continue to moderate. But net-net, aggregate fuel is a headwind as well. And so you take all those pieces together, the organic margin expansion underlying as a result of this pricing and operating leverage is quite significant.

然後燃料，你的最後一點，看，燃料成本單獨刺痛，直接燃料轉嫁，正如我所說，我們的附加費更加成熟，燃料價格實際上略有下降。所以那裡沒有重大影響，有輕微的順風。但我們確實擁有的是這種間接燃料傳遞，這在 2022 年下半年非常突出。我們的意思是第三方運輸供應商和處置供應商以增量價格來收回自己的能源成本。這些代表了我們進入明年的一個非常有意義的逆風，因為這些成本是在下半年真正出現的。因此，如果能源價格繼續放緩，我們將拭目以待。但總的來說，聚合燃料也是一個不利因素。因此，您將所有這些部分放在一起，由於這種定價和運營槓桿而導致的有機利潤率增長非常顯著。

Yes. Okay. Can you guys hear me better?

是的。好的。你們能聽得更清楚嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, much better.

是的，好多了。

Okay. Good. Yes. Sorry about that. I do want to switch gears just a little bit. Given that it's year-end, can you guys update us on where [GIPI] EBITDA came in for the year? If you have any expectations for '23 and what that leverage profile looks on that entity. It's kind of hard to ascribe value for it without some of those financials. So could you just give us any help there?

好的。好的。是的。對於那個很抱歉。我確實想換個檔位。鑑於現在是年底，你們能否向我們介紹一下今年 [GIPI] EBITDA 的最新情況？如果您對 23 年有任何期望，以及該實體的槓桿概況如何。如果沒有其中一些財務數據，很難為其賦予價值。那你能給我們一些幫助嗎？

Sure. Yes, that business this year will generate sort of somewhere between 165 and $170 million of EBITDA, roughly -- sort of roughly about 5 turns of leverage on that sort of where it shook out. I think when you look at that, and I'll just sort of reiterate the plan for that business, where we sort of sit today, that will grow -- they obviously had cost inflationary pressures as well for contracts they bid in 2021 that they actually had to do in 2022. So we expect for 2023, that business will do somewhere around $195 million to $200 million of EBITDA. We expect that we will acquire $65 million to $70 million of EBITDA this year in that business. Largely last year, we just spent on integration. We didn't do any M&A. We have 3 targets under LOI at the moment. So we expect that, that business will exit 2023 with somewhere around $270 million, $275 million of EBITDA on a path to growing that to $300 million. So if you think about the original plan, our plan was, hey, we're going to grow that to $300 plus million. We think that business, if you look at the comps, like rolled and others and what it's worth sort of private equity and the value creation opportunity from an M&A perspective, we think those businesses conservatively trade for somewhere between 11x and 12x which would roughly put that at around $3.5 billion of enterprise value.

當然。是的，今年該業務將產生大約 165 至 1.7 億美元的 EBITDA，大約是大約 5 倍左右的槓桿作用。我想當你看的時候，我想重申一下我們今天所處的那個業務的計劃，它將會增長——他們顯然也有成本通脹壓力，以及他們在 2021 年投標的合同，他們實際上必須在 2022 年完成。所以我們預計到 2023 年，該業務的 EBITDA 將達到 1.95 億至 2 億美元左右。我們預計今年我們將在該業務中獲得 6500 萬至 7000 萬美元的 EBITDA。去年的大部分時間，我們只是花在了整合上。我們沒有進行任何併購。目前，我們在 LOI 下有 3 個目標。因此，我們預計，該業務將在 2023 年退出，其 EBITDA 約為 2.7 億美元，2.75 億美元，並有望增長至 3 億美元。所以如果你想想最初的計劃，我們的計劃是，嘿，我們要把它增加到 300 多萬美元。我們認為，如果您從併購的角度來看這些企業，比如 rolled 和其他企業，以及它的價值，比如私募股權和價值創造機會，我們認為這些企業的保守交易價格在 11 到 12 倍之間，這將大致企業價值約為 35 億美元。

Net debt would roughly be $1.5 billion. So there'd be a combined equity of about $2 billion, and GFL loans just under 50%. So I think from our perspective, that gets us to the $1 billion of equity that we set out to create truthfully, that's nowhere to be seen today, but one day GFL shareholders are going to get a check. I'm very confident for closer to $1 billion. But that's the math behind it.

淨債務約為 15 億美元。因此，總股本約為 20 億美元，而 GFL 貸款將略低於 50%。所以我認為從我們的角度來看，這讓我們獲得了我們打算如實創造的 10 億美元股權，這在今天是看不到的，但總有一天 GFL 的股東會得到一張支票。我對接近 10 億美元非常有信心。但這就是它背後的數學原理。

Okay. That is -- yes, that is super, super helpful. Okay. And then my last one here. If I look at the pro forma schedule on the proposed divestitures, it looks like they've run around 25% margins. The CapEx profile is 7% to 8% of sales. So if I just read those breadcrumbs, does that indicate that they're likely hauling operations? Or are there some vertically integrated markets?

好的。那是——是的，那非常、非常有幫助。好的。然後是我的最後一個。如果我查看擬議資產剝離的備考時間表，看起來它們的利潤率約為 25%。資本支出概況是銷售額的 7% 到 8%。因此，如果我只是閱讀這些麵包屑，是否表明他們可能正在拖運業務？還是有一些垂直整合的市場？

It's -- it's a mixture of both. I mean a couple of the markets are hauling and transfer some are hauling only and then another market sort of vertically integrated as well. With a smaller lands. So but you're right, it's mostly -- it's more sort of on the hauling and transfer side.

它是——它是兩者的混合體。我的意思是，有幾個市場正在運輸和轉移，一些市場僅在運輸，然後另一個市場也在垂直整合。擁有較小的土地。所以但你是對的，它主要是 - 它更像是在牽引和轉移方面。

The next question comes from Tim James at TD Securities.

下一個問題來自道明證券的蒂姆詹姆斯。

I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about the moving parts by market as you think about your volume expectations, your guidance for '23. Just thinking about different kind of expectations within commercial, industrial, residential and maybe any differences you see in the U.S. market versus Canada?

我想知道你是否可以在考慮你的銷量預期和你對 23 年的指導時，談談市場的移動部分。想想商業、工業、住宅中的不同類型的期望，以及您在美國市場與加拿大市場中看到的任何差異？

Yes. Tim, it's Luke. Look, as presented in the prepared remarks that we're taking a conservative view on volumes, just in light of uncertainty. The reality is, as you can see throughout even the second half of 2022, I mean, our volume growth remains strong. I think it's a testament to our market selection as well as the sort of quality of service that we're seeing. I mean in a typical recessionary type environment, it's the C&D related volume, right, that drives up first, you see that the landfills and your sort of roll-off business. So the guide does assume more tempered sort of landfill volumes and fee collection. Although I would say that sort of together sort of a single-digit percentage of our total revenue fees. So it's not a material number.

是的。蒂姆，是盧克。看，正如準備好的評論中所述，鑑於不確定性，我們對交易量持保守看法。事實上，正如您在整個 2022 年下半年所看到的那樣，我的意思是，我們的銷量增長依然強勁。我認為這證明了我們的市場選擇以及我們所看到的服務質量。我的意思是，在典型的經濟衰退型環境中，首先是與 C&D 相關的交易量，對，你會看到垃圾填埋場和你的那種滾降業務。因此，該指南確實假設了更溫和的垃圾填埋量和收費標準。儘管我會說這種加在一起占我們總收入費用的個位數百分比。所以這不是一個物質數字。

I think really what we're anticipating is broad-based across both of the markets, a general slowdown in the sort of commercial industrial type volume. Residential sort of remains strong and sort of a little bit more cycle agnostic. So it's really in those areas, but I would highlight, it is a conservative perspective based on the uncertainty versus indication based on what we're seeing in the current data.

我認為我們真正期待的是兩個市場的廣泛基礎，即商業工業類型數量的普遍放緩。住宅類的仍然很強勁，並且與週期無關。所以它確實在那些領域，但我要強調，這是一個保守的觀點，基於我們在當前數據中看到的不確定性和指示。

Okay. That's really helpful. The Environmental Services business, the growth that you've reported last year, I mean, just a great performance. Can you comment, and I don't know if it's possible to talk about how much of that performance was overall market strength versus GFL-specific market share gains or opportunities that maybe you capitalize to outgrow the market?

好的。這真的很有幫助。環境服務業務，你去年報告的增長，我的意思是，只是一個很好的表現。你能發表評論嗎，我不知道是否有可能談論這種表現中有多少是整體市場實力與 GFL 特定市場份額收益或你可能利用以超越市場的機會？

I mean from Environmental Services, I mean, I think, listen, we had -- we were very opportunistic when we bought -- when we stepped (inaudible) right? So we bought that. I think when others were scared of COVID and other things, and I think we bought that on an LTM number that was significantly affected by COVID at a very reasonable purchase price multiple, like just over 8x. So you put that all together today and you look at the market position, you look at the synergy opportunities, you look at the diversification of our service offerings and being able to offer our existing customers services that tariffs be able to offer their customers and services that our existing GFO customers couldn't get because (inaudible). I think when you put that all together, that led to this outside sort of growth opportunity.

我的意思是來自環境服務，我的意思是，我想，聽著，我們有 - 我們在購買時非常機會主義 - 當我們踩到（聽不清）對嗎？所以我們買了那個。我認為當其他人害怕 COVID 和其他東西時，我認為我們以非常合理的購買價格倍數購買了受 COVID 顯著影響的 LTM 號碼，比如剛剛超過 8 倍。所以你今天把所有這些放在一起，你看看市場地位，你看看協同機會，你看看我們服務產品的多樣化，以及能夠為我們現有的客戶提供服務，關稅能夠為他們的客戶和服務提供服務我們現有的 GFO 客戶無法獲得，因為（聽不清）。我認為當你把所有這些放在一起時，就會帶來這種外部增長機會。

In conjunction with keep in mind, we exited COVID for the most part in Canada in the spring of 2022, right? So there was a lot of pent-up demand as well -- but when I think you look at that business and you look at the scale we now have in Canada, the facilities we now own in Canada and what that's able to do in the service offerings, we're able to offer our customers and being able to sort of leverage that and leverage that fixed cost base of facilities, push price, et cetera. That's a sort of leading to that. And it's an already industry-leading margin business at sort of mid-20s. And my goal over the next 2 to 3 years is to get that to closer to 30%. We think we can do that. We think we have the power to do it. And I think when you look at the platform that we have, if we're selective about the markets we go and the focus on the revenue from the existing customers, I think that is going to yield an exceptional result.

結合牢記，我們在 2022 年春季在加拿大大部分時間退出了 COVID，對嗎？所以也有很多被壓抑的需求——但是當我想你看看那個業務，看看我們現在在加拿大的規模，我們現在在加拿大擁有的設施，以及它在加拿大的能力服務產品，我們能夠為我們的客戶提供並能夠利用它並利用設施的固定成本基礎、推價等。這是一種導向。它在 20 多歲時就已經是行業領先的保證金業務。在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，我的目標是讓這個比例接近 30%。我們認為我們可以做到。我們認為我們有能力做到這一點。而且我認為，當您查看我們擁有的平台時，如果我們對所進入的市場有所選擇並專注於現有客戶的收入，我認為這將產生非凡的結果。

Okay. That's really helpful, Patrick. And then just a final question. I just want to confirm my thinking just doing some simple math here. The asset sales plan for this year, they would be effectively slightly accretive once those sales are done to your Solid Waste margin percentage, but really have no material impact on the consolidated. Is that the right way to think about it?

好的。這真的很有幫助，帕特里克。然後是最後一個問題。我只想在這裡做一些簡單的數學運算來證實我的想法。今年的資產銷售計劃，一旦這些銷售完成到您的固體廢物利潤率百分比，它們將有效地略微增加，但實際上對合併沒有實質性影響。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That's right, Tim.

沒錯，蒂姆。

The next question is from Stephanie Moore from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。

I wanted to follow up on Tyler's question real quick here. I think you called out, obviously, some nice progress made on the fuel surcharge program and some other initiatives. But maybe you could talk about some of the other self-help initiatives just embedded in your margin guidance as you think of -- what do you think for this year.

我想在這裡快速跟進 Tyler 的問題。我想你顯然提到了燃油附加費計劃和其他一些舉措取得了一些不錯的進展。但也許你可以談談你想到的其他一些自助舉措，這些舉措只是嵌入到你的利潤率指導中——你對今年有什麼看法。

Yes. So I mean, Stephanie, it's Luke, when you speaking of self-help, I assume you're talking about the 3 sort of levers that we identified at our Investor Day across sort of fleet conversion...

是的。所以我的意思是，斯蒂芬妮，我是盧克，當你談到自助時，我假設你是在談論我們在投資者日確定的 3 種槓桿，用於車隊轉換……

Exactly. Yes.

確切地。是的。

Pricing. I mean, we continue to make progress on those. I mean if you think about CNG fleet conversion, like our peers have demonstrated the power of moving off of diesel onto those alternative fuels. And it's something that we're excited about and deploying capital into. However, in light of all of the uncertainty that we've sort of spoken about, I think deploying excess capital today at today's leverage levels, et cetera, is just not something we've had an appetite for. So as we've articulated, we are currently just spending our replacement CapEx into those streams as opposed to outsized accelerated spend.

價錢。我的意思是，我們繼續在這些方面取得進展。我的意思是，如果您考慮 CNG 車隊轉換，就像我們的同行一樣，已經證明了從柴油轉向這些替代燃料的力量。這是我們感到興奮並投入資金的事情。然而，鑑於我們已經談到的所有不確定性，我認為今天以今天的槓桿水平等配置過剩資本並不是我們想要的。因此，正如我們所闡明的那樣，我們目前只是將我們的替代資本支出投入到這些流中，而不是超額加速支出。

As we move forward to the extent there's perhaps less a perception of leverage and therefore, a tolerance of perhaps spending some outsized accelerated capital, you could look at accelerating the pace at which we would do that conversion and repeating the benefits accordingly, but I highlight what we have included in the guide is our normal course replacement CapEx being favored towards CNG. So while you're getting some benefit, it's by no means the lion's share of this EBITDA margin expansion that we're talking about. That continues -- the complete conversion continues to remain an incremental leg up on margin expansion that we are slowly chipping away at today with potential design that sometimes in a few years out, we could then accelerate the realization of that opportunity.

隨著我們向前發展，人們對槓桿的認識可能會減少，因此可能會容忍花費一些超大的加速資本，你可以考慮加快我們進行這種轉換並相應地重複收益的速度，但我強調我們在指南中包含的是我們的正常課程替代資本支出受到 CNG 的青睞。因此，雖然您獲得了一些好處，但這絕不是我們正在談論的 EBITDA 利潤率增長的最大份額。這種情況仍在繼續 - 完全轉換繼續保持對利潤率擴張的增量支持，我們今天正在通過潛在的設計慢慢削減，有時在幾年後，我們可以加速實現這一機會。

Great. And then just on the labor headwinds as you kind of look into 2023, I think what are you seeing in terms of maybe improvements in retention, I think wages remain high, but any kind of color on just labor expectations?

偉大的。然後，當你展望 2023 年時，就勞動力逆風而言，我認為你在保留率的改善方面看到了什麼，我認為工資仍然很高，但對勞動力預期有任何影響嗎？

Yes. I think one thing we track pretty closely is sort of voluntary resignations. And I think where we were, if you look sort of pre-COVID, we were sort of sitting around 18% to 20%. That one as high as sort of 30% to 32% in 2022. And I think that's moderated significantly now down to the sort of mid-20s and trending back sort of closer to sort of pre-COVID levels. I think it's now not become necessarily sort of a wage game. I think, obviously, with a lot of the last-mile guys starting to slow down where we saw a lot of pressure coming in some of the urban markets. That has largely subsided. I think we're moving to a more normalized wage increase model, and the retention has been very high through sort of later Q3 into Q4 and now into Q1. So as Luke said earlier in the script, I think from our perspective, that is sort of moderating now, and we think we're in a very good position to get back to sort of a more normalized state for the current environment.

是的。我認為我們密切關注的一件事是自願辭職。而且我認為我們的位置，如果你看起來有點像 COVID 之前，我們有點坐在 18% 到 20% 左右。到 2022 年，這一比例將高達 30% 至 32%。而且我認為，這一比例現在已顯著下降至 20 多歲左右，並且趨於接近 COVID 之前的水平。我認為它現在不一定成為一種工資遊戲。我認為，很明顯，許多最後一英里的人開始放慢腳步，我們看到一些城市市場面臨巨大壓力。這已基本平息。我認為我們正在轉向一種更加正常化的工資增長模式，並且從第三季度到第四季度以及現在進入第一季度，保留率一直非常高。因此，正如盧克在劇本前面所說的那樣，我認為從我們的角度來看，現在有點緩和，我們認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以回到當前環境的某種更正常的狀態。

So we're pretty optimistic about where we sort of sit and I think it's certainly getting significantly better than it was in late 2021 and through the early half of 2022.

因此，我們對我們所處的位置非常樂觀，我認為它肯定會比 2021 年末和 2022 年上半年好得多。

The next question comes from Michael Feniger from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Feniger。

I know we're going a little long. I guess I just wanted to ask some of your comments, Luke, on first half versus second half. The costs you're absorbing in '23, obviously, low OCC right, ringe-ramping. Can 2024 look like an outsized year in terms of margin expansion and free cash flow conversion? If not, like what would kind of hold back 24 from being an outsized year?

我知道我們要走得有點遠。盧克，我想我只是想問你一些關於上半場和下半場的意見。你在 23 年吸收的成本，顯然，低 OCC 權利，ringe-ramping。就利潤率擴張和自由現金流轉換而言，2024 年會是一個巨大的年份嗎？如果不是，比如什麼會阻止 24 成為一個超大的年份？

Mike, I think you're thinking about it exactly right. We anticipate 2024 to be another year of outsized organic EBITDA margin expansion, right? If you think about the way the pricing cadence is now going to marry up against what should be a moderating cost inflation and entering into 2024 was still better than mid-single-digit pricing. We think the organic algorithm there should yield another outsized year of expansion. And at the free cash flow conversion line, I think you said it exactly right. This year, I characterize it as a recalibrating year, right? Your free cash flow conversion by virtue of absorbing the extra interest expense is stepping down. We'll be in the sort of high-30s of EBITDA conversion. But when you roll into 2023 -- 2024, with the benefit of the divestitures, you're going to be back into a low-40s percent free cash flow conversion and then ramping up from there. So I know there's always a lot of focus on the guide for what it means in the next 12 months. But I think Patrick articulated in the prepared remarks, when we're going out to 2025, we don't see a path that is less than sort of $1.1 billion of free cash flow at approaching mid-40s free cash flow conversion and continue to have opportunity to go up from there. So I think you're thinking about it right. This is the year to absorb the interest cost, but thereafter, we get meaningful leverage as we go forward.

邁克，我認為你的想法是完全正確的。我們預計 2024 年將是有機 EBITDA 利潤率大幅擴張的又一年，對嗎？如果你考慮一下定價節奏現在將如何應對本應溫和的成本通脹，進入 2024 年仍然好於中個位數定價。我們認為那裡的有機算法應該會產生又一個超大的擴張年。在自由現金流轉換線上，我認為你說的完全正確。今年，我將其描述為重新校準的一年，對嗎？通過吸收額外的利息支出，您的自由現金流量轉換正在逐步減少。我們的 EBITDA 轉換率將達到 30 多歲。但是，當你進入 2023 年 - 2024 年時，隨著資產剝離的好處，你將回到 40% 的低自由現金流轉換，然後從那裡開始上升。所以我知道在接下來的 12 個月裡，人們總是非常關注指南的含義。但我認為帕特里克在準備好的發言中明確表示，當我們走到 2025 年時，我們看不到在接近 40 年代中期自由現金流轉換時少於 11 億美元自由現金流的路徑，並繼續有機會從那裡上去。所以我認為你在考慮它是對的。今年是吸收利息成本的一年，但此後，我們在前進的過程中獲得了有意義的槓桿作用。

Very helpful. And Patrick, when you IPO-ed in 2020, there was a knock on the fact that you had lower solid waste exposure and some other, yet we're seeing other large public players starting to get more into environmental services. So I'm just curious, since we've seen some of these developments, are you observing in that market where there's -- there's a connotation of volatility, not as much discipline, if you're seeing any shift there over the last year or so, that's noteworthy.

很有幫助。帕特里克，當你在 2020 年進行首次公開募股時，你對固體廢物和其他一些物質的接觸較少，但我們看到其他大型上市公司開始更多地涉足環境服務。所以我很好奇，既然我們已經看到了其中的一些發展，你是否在那個市場中觀察到 - 如果你在過去一年中看到任何變化，那麼有波動的內涵，而不是那麼多的紀律左右，這是值得注意的。

No. I think Environmental Services is just -- I think, is where Solid Waste was 15 years ago, right? It's very fragmented across all the different geographies. You really only had 1 consolidator for a long period of time, which is Clean Harbors. But again, focused on different parts of the business. I think when you look at that business, it's the exact same as the Solid Waste business, and I've said this for like 15 years now. I mean maybe not everyone sort of as believe me, but I think when you sort of leverage in this regulatory environment and having these sort of moats, which are wastewater treatment plants, all our sort of TDI facilities, et cetera, all of these yield exceptional pricing power over time, right? As the regulatory environment keeps getting tighter, as these markets continue to consolidate, it's going to help with pricing power. There's a higher focus for customers on the regulatory environment. It makes it more and more difficult for the smaller mom and pops to sort of compete. So just because the amount of money you have to spend on infrastructure to be able to service the customer to meet today's regulatory requirements. So with that, I think this is going to be an exceptional business over sort of a long period of time. I think when you look at our business today, it's mid-20s margin running at sort of 8-ish percent CapEx. My goal is to get that, it's sort of closer to 30% and maintain that sort of CapEx level at 88.5%, and it will be the exact same free cash flow contributor as Solid Waste is to our existing business today. And I think that opportunity exists.

不，我認為環境服務只是——我認為，固體廢物是 15 年前的地方，對吧？它在所有不同的地區都非常分散。在很長一段時間內，您實際上只有 1 個集運商，即 Clean Harbors。但同樣，專注於業務的不同部分。我認為，當你審視該業務時，它與固體廢物業務完全相同，我已經說了 15 年了。我的意思是也許不是每個人都相信我，但我認為當你在這種監管環境中發揮槓桿作用並擁有這些護城河時，這些護城河是廢水處理廠，我們所有的 TDI 設施等等，所有這些產量隨著時間的推移，非凡的定價能力，對吧？隨著監管環境越來越嚴格，隨著這些市場的不斷整合，這將有助於提高定價能力。客戶更加關注監管環境。這使得規模較小的媽媽和流行音樂越來越難以競爭。因此，僅僅因為您必須在基礎設施上花費大量資金才能為客戶提供服務以滿足當今的監管要求。因此，我認為這將在很長一段時間內成為一項非凡的業務。我認為，當您查看我們今天的業務時，20 年代中期的利潤率大約為 8% 的資本支出。我的目標是實現這一目標，它接近 30%，並將這種資本支出水平保持在 88.5%，這將是完全相同的自由現金流貢獻者，就像固體廢物對我們今天現有業務的貢獻一樣。我認為這個機會是存在的。

And yes, I think we always -- people always ask the question historically about why we're in that business. Obviously, as Republic identified a similar opportunity that we had over time, I think it's become more of a normalized view. But I think where we sort of sit today, it will be a very similar margin business to our Solid Waste business, and it's going to be as good or better with the free cash flow contributor. So put all of those together, I think we've been cognizant I think under private equity ownership, important thing to note.

是的，我認為我們總是——人們總是從歷史上問我們為什麼從事那個行業的問題。顯然，隨著 Republic 發現我們隨著時間的推移擁有類似的機會，我認為它已經成為一種常態化的觀點。但我認為我們今天所處的位置，這將是一個與我們的固體廢物業務非常相似的保證金業務，並且與自由現金流貢獻者一樣好或更好。因此，將所有這些放在一起，我認為我們已經認識到我認為在私募股權所有權下，需要注意的重要事項。

When we were under private equity ownership, we were running leverage levels of closer to 6.5% to 7%. We really couldn't afford to be in cyclical-type businesses. So we really stayed out of the E&P space. So none of our business is levered to the E&P space. So with that, this is just a sort of normal core steady Eddie type business. Yes, it was abnormally impacted because of COVID, but that was because of the dynamic that we were levered to Canada and Canada was closed for [2] years. But outside of that, I think you're going to see our business continue to grow and be a great contributor to the GFL book of business for a long period of time.

當我們擁有私人股權時，我們的槓桿水平接近 6.5% 至 7%。我們真的負擔不起週期性業務。所以我們真的置身於 E&P 領域之外。因此，我們的業務都沒有涉及 E&P 領域。因此，這只是一種正常的核心穩定埃迪類型的業務。是的，它受到了 COVID 的異常影響，但那是因為我們被槓桿化到加拿大的動態，而加拿大關閉了 [2] 年。但除此之外，我認為你會看到我們的業務繼續增長，並在很長一段時間內成為 GFL 業務簿的重要貢獻者。

Our final question today comes from Chris Murray from ATB Capital Markets.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 ATB Capital Markets 的 Chris Murray。

So just a couple of quick questions on margins. Just thinking back to the fuel surcharge. I think Luke you mentioned that there's a delta of about 200 basis points between you and your peers. But in a flat to falling fuel price environment, you probably get it on the cost side. Can you just talk a little bit about do you think you'll be able to recap that whole $200 million sometime in '23? Or is it still going to take a little bit longer than that as you need contracts to roll over?

所以只有幾個關於利潤率的快速問題。回想一下燃油附加費。我想盧克你提到過你和你的同行之間有大約 200 個基點的差異。但在燃料價格持平或下跌的環境中，您可能會在成本方面得到它。你能談談你認為你能在 23 年的某個時候收回全部 2 億美元嗎？或者它仍然需要比這更長的時間，因為你需要合同來滾動？

So to clarify, the $200 million is the gap of the impact in Q4, right? Because what I'm suggesting is we had a 130 basis point headwind where I get some of my peers probably had a tailwind of 50 basis points to 75 basis points. So 200 basis point gap in the impact. As we go into next year, what we have now established is a functional fuel cost recovery program. So the initial recognition of that is almost like a permanent price layer in our book of business that we will now enjoy the benefit from. Yes, if fuel prices fall materially off, you will give some of that back, but doing so in conjunction with a much lower energy cost in the P&L. So I think it was this year of initial recognition where we were sort of behind as we go forward, we think we are now better positioned to respond to volatile energy prices regardless of the dynamic going up or down.

所以澄清一下，2 億美元是第四季度影響的缺口，對嗎？因為我的建議是我們有 130 個基點的逆風，我得到一些同行可能有 50 個基點到 75 個基點的順風。所以 200 個基點的差距會產生影響。當我們進入明年時，我們現在已經建立了一個實用的燃料成本回收計劃。因此，對這一點的初步認識幾乎就像我們業務簿中的永久價格層，我們現在將從中受益。是的，如果燃料價格大幅下跌，您將回饋其中的一部分，但這樣做會與損益表中低得多的能源成本相結合。因此，我認為正是今年初步認識到我們在前進的過程中有點落後，我們認為我們現在可以更好地應對波動的能源價格，無論動態是上漲還是下跌。

Okay. And then just my last question, just on the Environmental Services business. You did talk about being able to grow margins up to the 30% by, call it, optimizing revenue, but you're also talking kind of mid-single-digit growth now. Are you intentionally starting to stead revenue? I mean historically, we've seen a pretty higher growth rate than that. But can you just talk about the kind of the price versus volume dynamic that you're willing to entertain to get those margins up?

好的。然後是我的最後一個問題，關於環境服務業務。你確實談到了能夠通過優化收入將利潤率提高到 30%，但你現在也在談論中等個位數的增長。您是否有意開始穩定收入？我的意思是從歷史上看，我們看到的增長率比這高得多。但是你能談談你願意接受什麼樣的價格與數量動態來提高這些利潤嗎？

Yes. I think, again, bigger focus on quality of revenue. And this is a specialty type trade, right? So our guys, again, hey, we want to get paid for the work we do and for the people we can do. We can't do all the work. So let's focus on the work we're going to get paid the most for. And for the customers that appreciate the work that we do for them in the basis and the timely basis that we do it on. So yes, we are going to push -- we are going to push that. We are going to push the quality of the revenue, and we are going to push price and surcharges in that space too.

是的。我認為，再次更加關注收入質量。這是一種特殊類型的交易，對吧？所以我們的人，再次，嘿，我們希望為我們所做的工作和我們能做的人獲得報酬。我們不能做所有的工作。因此，讓我們專注於我們將獲得最多報酬的工作。對於那些欣賞我們為他們所做的工作的客戶，我們及時地為他們所做的工作。所以是的，我們將推動 - 我們將推動它。我們將提高收入質量，我們也將提高該領域的價格和附加費。

Listen, we looked at our overall fuel surcharge in that business, it was sitting at around sort of 5%. That should be at closer to 15% today. So there's opportunity just on the surcharge line there as well just to cover our existing costs. But again, pushing core price and surcharges in that space is going to sort of push that up as well as the quality of revenue and the customer base in that business.

聽著，我們查看了該業務的整體燃油附加費，大約為 5%。今天應該接近 15%。因此，只有在附加費線上才有機會支付我們現有的成本。但同樣，推動該領域的核心價格和附加費將在某種程度上推動該領域以及收入質量和該業務的客戶群。

Okay. And does that reduce volume as you think going forward or just flatten it out?

好的。這是否會像您認為的那樣減少交易量，或者只是將其拉平？

Flatten it out a little bit for sure. I think 2022 was an abnormal year from just a ramp in terms of the amount of volume that came and how fast it came just given the recovery from COVID. But yes, it will normalize and normalize just like the Solid Waste business would itself.

一定要把它弄平一點。我認為 2022 年是不正常的一年，從交易量和從 COVID 恢復的速度來看只是一個斜坡。但是，是的，它將像固體廢物業務本身一樣正常化和正常化。

We have no further questions at this time. So I'll hand back to the management team for any concluding remarks.

目前我們沒有其他問題。因此，我將把任何結束語交還給管理團隊。

Thank you very much, everyone. I'm sorry the call dragged on a little longer, but we look forward to speaking to you after our Q1 results and appreciate all your support over the last number of years. Thank you.

非常感謝大家。很抱歉電話拖延了一段時間，但我們期待在第一季度結果公佈後與您交談，並感謝您在過去幾年中的所有支持。謝謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開線路。