Griffon Corp (GFF) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Griffon Corporation Annual and Fiscal fourth- quarter financial results conference call.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 Griffon 公司第四季年度和財務業績電話會議。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brian Harris, Chief Financial Officer.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，財務長布萊恩哈里斯 (Brian Harris)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, and welcome to Griffon Corporation's fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call.

早安，歡迎參加 Griffon Corporation 的 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。

Joining me this morning is Ron Kramer, Griffin's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

今天早上與我一起出席的是格里芬公司董事長兼執行長 Ron Kramer。

Our press release was issued earlier this morning is available on our website at www.griffon.com. Today's call is being recorded, and the replay instructions are included in our earnings.

我們的新聞稿於今天早上早些時候發布，可在我們的網站 www.griffon.com 上查看。今天的通話正在錄音，重播說明包含在我們的收入中。

Our comments will include forward-looking statements about Griffin's performance.

我們的評論將包括有關格里芬表現的前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that can change as the world changes.

這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。

Please see the cautionary statements in today's press release and in our SEC filings.

請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的警告聲明。

Finally, during today's remarks will adjust for items that affect comparability between periods.

最後，今天的發言將對影響不同時期之間可比較性的項目進行調整。

These items are explained in our non-GAAP reconciliations included in our opportunities.

這些項目在我們的機會中包含的非公認會計原則調節中進行了解釋。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ron.

這樣，我就把電話轉給羅恩。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。

We are very pleased with our results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year, which were driven by a consistently strong performance from our Home & Building Products segment and improved profitability at our Consumer and Professional Products segment.

我們對第四季度和本財年的業績感到非常滿意，這是由我們的家居和建築產品部門持續強勁的業績以及消費和專業產品部門盈利能力的提高所推動的。

For the year, Home & Building Products, HBP, revenue of $1.6 billion was consistent with the prior year, driven by increased residential volume, which was offset by reduced demand for commercial projects.

今年，家居與建築產品 (HBP) 的收入為 16 億美元，與上年持平，這是由於住宅數量增加，但商業項目需求減少所抵消。

HBP sustained strong EBITDA margin performance throughout the year, ending with an EBITDA margin of 31.5%.

HBP 全年 EBITDA 利潤率表現強勁，最終 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.5%。

HBP's fourth quarter results confirm the trends we saw throughout the year with growth in residential volume, more than offsetting reduced commercial volume.

HBP 第四季的業績證實了我們全年看到的趨勢，住宅成交量的成長足以抵消商業成交量的減少。

At HBP, we are continuing to invest in productivity and innovation to further drive growth.

在 HBP，我們繼續投資於生產力和創新，以進一步推動成長。

These investments include expanding Clopay's Troy, Ohio sectional door manufacturing capacity and adding advanced manufacturing equipment to better satisfy customer demand for premium products.

這些投資包括擴大克洛佩位於俄亥俄州特洛伊的分段門製造能力，並增加先進的製造設備，以更好地滿足客戶對優質產品的需求。

We plan to make further investments in capacity expansion and technology in 2025.

我們計劃在2025年在產能擴張和技術方面進行進一步投資。

Turning to Consumer and Professional Products segment, CPP's results for the year continue to reflect challenging market conditions with revenues decreasing 6% to $1 billion.

轉向消費和專業產品領域，CPP 今年的業績繼續反映出充滿挑戰的市場狀況，營收下降 6% 至 10 億美元。

Reduced consumer demand in North America drove most of the revenue year-over-year, offset by increased volume in the Australian market.

北美消費者需求的減少推動了大部分收入同比增長，但被澳洲市場銷售的增加所抵消。

Volume in the UK increased year-over-year, indicating a potential market recovery for a region that has endured a significant drop off in consumer demand over the last several years.

英國的銷量逐年增加，顯示該地區在過去幾年消費者需求大幅下降的情況下可能出現市場復甦。

CPP profitability significantly improved year-over-year despite the reduced consumer demand in North America.

儘管北美消費者需求減少，但 CPP 獲利能力仍較去年同期顯著提高。

This was driven by improved North American production costs and increased profit from the additional volume in Australia.

這是由於北美生產成本改善以及澳洲產量增加帶來的利潤增加所致。

EBITDA increased 44% to $73 million, which represented a margin improvement of 240 basis points to 7%.

EBITDA 成長 44%，達到 7,300 萬美元，利潤率提高 240 個基點，達到 7%。

CPP successfully concluded its global sourcing expansion project ahead of schedule as of the end of September 2024.

截至2024年9月底，CPP提前完成全球採購擴張專案。

The positive effects of this initiative are already improving the profitability of CPP's US operations and the completion of the global sourcing initiative establishes a foundation for CPP to achieve its target of 15% EBITDA margin.

這項措施的正面影響已經提高了 CPP 美國業務的獲利能力，全球採購計畫的完成為 CPP 實現 15% EBITDA 利潤率的目標奠定了基礎。

Turning to capital allocation.

轉向資本配置。

In fiscal 2024, we took significant actions to deliver shareholder value through restock buybacks and cash dividends while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

2024 財年，我們採取了重大行動，透過補股回購和現金股利來實現股東價值，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。

During the year, we repurchased 4.8 million shares at an average price of $57.52. Since September 30, we repurchased approximately 0.5 million shares at an average price of $67.91 which used the remaining authorization available under our share repurchase program.

年內，我們以平均價格 57.52 美元回購了 480 萬股股票。自 9 月 30 日以來，我們以平均價格 67.91 美元回購了約 50 萬股股票，其中使用了股票回購計畫下的剩餘授權。

Since April 2023, and through November 12, 2024, our share repurchases totaled 9.4 million shares of common stock or 16.4% of the April 2023 outstanding shares for a total of $458 million or an average of $48.74 per share.

自2023 年4 月起至2024 年11 月12 日，我們的股票回購總額為940 萬股普通股，佔2023 年4 月已發行股票的16.4%，回購總額為4.58 億美元，平均每股回購金額為48.74 美元。

We continue to believe that our shares are a compelling value, trading well below intrinsic value.

我們仍然相信我們的股票具有令人信服的價值，其交易價格遠低於內在價值。

And as a result, Griffon's Board of Directors has authorized an additional $400 million of share repurchases.

因此，Griffon 董事會已授權額外回購 4 億美元的股票。

Also this morning, we announced that the Griffon Board authorized a regular quarterly dividend of $0.18 per share payable on December 18 to shareholders of record on November 25, marking the 53rd consecutive quarterly dividend to shareholders.

同樣在今天早上，我們宣布 Griffon 董事會授權於 12 月 18 日向 11 月 25 日登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.18 美元的定期季度股息，這是連續第 53 個季度向股東派發股息。

This dividend represents a 20% increase over the prior quarter dividend and since we began paying dividends in 2012, reflects growth at an annualized compound rate of 18%.

該股息比上一季股息增加了 20%，自 2012 年開始支付股息以來，年化複合成長率為 18%。

During fiscal 2024, we also took action to improve our financial flexibility with the repricing of our $459 million Term Loan B facility, which matures in 2029, thus reducing the cost of this financing.

在 2024 財年，我們也採取行動提高財務彈性，對 2029 年到期的 4.59 億美元定期貸款 B 融資進行了重新定價，從而降低了融資成本。

Utilizing our $326 million of fiscal 2024 free cash flow, Griffon returned a total of $310 million shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, while also maintaining our year-over-year leverage at 2.6 times improving our financial flexibility and making substantial investments in our businesses.

利用2024 財年3.26 億美元的自由現金流，Griffon 透過股息和股票回購在2024 年向股東總共返還3.1 億美元，同時將我們的同比槓桿率維持在2.6 倍，提高了我們的財務靈活性，並對我們的業務進行了大量投資。

These actions reflect the strength of our business as well as our confidence in our strategic plan and outlook.

這些行動反映了我們的業務實力以及我們對策略計畫和前景的信心。

I'll turn it over to Brian for the financial update to provide some details about our 2025 guidance.

我將把它交給 Brian 來獲取財務更新，以提供有關我們 2025 年指導的一些詳細資訊。

Thank you, Ron.

謝謝你，羅恩。

I'll start with our fourth quarter performance and then review our guidance for fiscal 2025.

我將從我們第四季度的業績開始，然後回顧我們對 2025 財年的指導。

Fourth quarter revenue of $660 million increased by 3% and adjusted EBITDA increased 13% to $138 million, both in comparison to the prior year.

第四季營收為 6.6 億美元，與去年同期相比成長 3%，調整後 EBITDA 成長 13%，達到 1.38 億美元。

EBITDA margin was 20.8%, an increase of 190 basis points over the prior year fourth quarter.

EBITDA 利潤率為 20.8%，比去年第四季成長 190 個基點。

Gross profit on a GAAP basis for the quarter was $263 million compared to $246 million in the prior year quarter, excluding items that affect comparability from the current and prior periods.

以 GAAP 計算，本季毛利為 2.63 億美元，去年同期毛利為 2.46 億美元，不包括影響當期和前期可比性的項目。

Gross profit was $271 million in the current quarter compared to $251 million in the prior year quarter.

本季毛利為 2.71 億美元，去年同期毛利為 2.51 億美元。

Normalized gross margin increased year-over-year by 190 basis points to 41.1%.

標準化毛利率年增 190 個基點至 41.1%。

Fourth quarter GAAP selling, general and administrative expenses were $152 million compared to $157 million in the prior year quarter.

第四季 GAAP 銷售、一般和管理費用為 1.52 億美元，去年同期為 1.57 億美元。

Excluding adjusting items from both periods, SG&A expenses were $149 million or 22.6% of revenue compared to the prior year of $146 million or 22.8% of revenue.

排除這兩個時期的調整項目，SG&A 費用為 1.49 億美元，佔營收的 22.6%，而前一年為 1.46 億美元，佔營收的 22.8%。

Fourth quarter GAAP net income was $62 million or $1.29 per share compared to the prior year of $42 million or $0.79 per share.

第四季 GAAP 淨利為 6,200 萬美元，即每股 1.29 美元，而去年同期淨利為 4,200 萬美元，即每股 0.79 美元。

Excluding all items that affect comparability from both periods, current quarter adjusted net income was $71 million or $1.47 per share compared to prior year of $62 million or $1.19 per share.

排除影響兩個時期可比性的所有項目，本季調整後淨利潤為 7,100 萬美元，即每股 1.47 美元，而上一年為 6,200 萬美元，即每股 1.19 美元。

Corporate and unallocated expenses, excluding depreciation were $16 million in the quarter compared to $13.5 million in the prior year, primarily due to increased destock expense driven by the increase in Griffon share price.

本季公司和未分配費用（不包括折舊）為 1,600 萬美元，而去年同期為 1,350 萬美元，主要是由於 Griffon 股價上漲導致去庫存費用增加。

Net capital expenditures were $20 million in the fourth quarter compared to $33 million in the prior year quarter.

第四季淨資本支出為 2,000 萬美元，去年同期為 3,300 萬美元。

Depreciation and amortization totaled $15.6 million for the fourth quarter compared to $15.4 million in the prior year.

第四季折舊和攤提總額為 1,560 萬美元，而去年同期為 1,540 萬美元。

Regarding our segment performance.

關於我們的分部表現。

Revenue for homebuilding products increased 3% over the prior year quarter, driven by 2% of favorable mix and 1% from increased residential volume partially effect by decreased commercial volume.

住宅建築產品的收入比去年同期增長了 3%，這得益於 2% 的有利組合和 1% 的推動，部分原因是住宅數量增加，而商業數量減少造成了部分影響。

Adjusted EBITDA increased 7% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by the increased revenue and reduced material costs, partially offset by increased labor and distribution costs.

調整後的 EBITDA 與去年同期相比增長了 7%，這主要得益於收入增加和材料成本降低，但部分被勞動力和分銷成本增加所抵消。

Consumer and Professional Products revenue increased 2% from the prior year quarter to $253 million.

消費和專業產品收入較上年同期成長 2%，達到 2.53 億美元。

The increase in revenue is due to increased volume in Australia, including a 3% contribution from the Pope acquisition as well as increased volume in the UK, which was partially offset by decreased volume in North America due to reduced consumer demand.

收入的成長歸因於澳洲銷量的增加，其中包括 Pope 收購帶來的 3% 貢獻以及英國銷量的增加，但由於消費者需求減少而導致北美銷量下降，部分抵消了這一增長。

CPP adjusted EBITDA of $25 million increased $10 million from prior year driven by reduced North American production costs and increased revenue.

由於北美生產成本降低和收入增加，CPP 調整後 EBITDA 為 2,500 萬美元，較前一年增加 1,000 萬美元。

The global sourcing strategy expansion has been successfully completed as of September 30, 2024, ahead of the previously announced date of December 31, 2024.

全球採購策略擴張已於 2024 年 9 月 30 日成功完成，早於先前宣布的 2024 年 12 月 31 日。

As a result, manufacturing operations have concluded all affected sites with CPP reducing its facility footprint by approximately 1.2 million square feet or approximately 15% of CPP square footage and its head count by approximately 600.

因此，製造業務已結束了所有受影響的工廠，CPP 將其設施佔地面積減少了約 120 萬平方英尺（即 CPP 平方英尺的約 15%），並將員工人數減少了約 600 人。

These actions will be essential for CPP to achieve its target of 15% EBITDA margin while enhancing free cash flow through improved working capital and significant reduced capital expenditures.

這些行動對於 CPP 實現 15% EBITDA 利潤率的目標至關重要，同時透過改善營運資本和大幅減少資本支出來增強自由現金流。

Given a more challenged macroeconomic environment since we commenced this initiative in May of '23, we now expect the full margin benefits to be realized in fiscal 2027.

鑑於自 2023 年 5 月開始實施這項措施以來，宏觀經濟環境面臨更大的挑戰，我們現在預計將在 2027 財年實現全部利潤效益。

Regarding our balance sheet and liquidity.

關於我們的資產負債表和流動性。

As of September 30, 2024, we had net debt of $1.4 billion and net debt to EBITDA leverage of 2.6 times as calculated based on our debt covenants.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的淨債務為 14 億美元，根據我們的債務契約計算，淨債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率為 2.6 倍。

Our leverage was consistent with the prior year ending September 2023, even after returning approximately $310 million to shareholders via stock buyback and dividends during the year.

即使在年內透過股票回購和股息向股東返還約 3.1 億美元後，我們的槓桿率仍與截至 2023 年 9 月的前一年保持一致。

Regarding our guidance, we expect fiscal year 2025 revenue to be consistent with 2024 at $2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA in a range of $575 million to $600 million, excluding unallocated costs of $55 million and charges related to strategic review retention costs of approximately $5 million.

關於我們的指導，我們預計2025 財年的收入將與2024 年保持一致，為26 億美元，調整後的EBITDA 在5.75 億至6 億美元之間，不包括5500 萬美元的未分配成本和約500 萬美元的策略審查保留成本相關費用。

From a segment perspective, we anticipate 2025 HBP and CPP revenue will both be in line with 2024.

從細分市場角度來看，我們預計 2025 年 HBP 和 CPP 營收將與 2024 年持平。

HBP sales are expected to benefit from increased revenue residential volume, but will be offset by reduced demand for commercial projects, and we expect to return to normal seasonal patterns, which includes reduced volume during winter months.

HBP 銷售預計將受益於收入住宅量的增加，但將被商業項目需求的減少所抵消，我們預計將恢復正常的季節性模式，其中包括冬季銷售的減少。

CPP sales are expected to reflect continued growth in Australia, but offset by weakness in North America, which is expected to persist through the first half of 2025.

CPP 銷售預計將反映澳洲的持續成長，但被北美的疲軟所抵消，預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年上半年。

Regarding segment profitability, we anticipate continued strong performance at HBP with EBITDA margins in excess of 30%.

關於分部獲利能力，我們預期 HBP 將持續保持強勁表現，EBITDA 利潤率將超過 30%。

CPP EBITDA margin should continue to reflect the ongoing incremental benefits of the completed global sourcing initiative and it is expected to be in excess of 9%.

CPP EBITDA 利潤率應繼續反映已完成的全球採購計畫所帶來的持續增量效益，預計將超過 9%。

Free cash flow for 2025, including capital expenditures of $65 million is expected to exceed net income with depreciation of $42 million and amortization of $23 million.

2025 年的自由現金流，包括 6,500 萬美元的資本支出，預計將超過淨收入，其中折舊為 4,200 萬美元，攤提為 2,300 萬美元。

Fiscal year 2025 interest expense is expected to be $102 million and Griffon's normalized tax rate is expected to be 28%.

2025財年利息支出預計為1.02億美元，Griffon的標準化稅率預計為28%。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Ron.

現在我會把電話轉回給羅恩。

Thanks Brian.

謝謝布萊恩。

We are extremely pleased with our team's performance in 2024, especially given the uncertain macroeconomic environment.

我們對團隊 2024 年的表現非常滿意，特別是考慮到宏觀經濟環境的不確定性。

The team continued to capture market share and grow volume in residential products, offsetting weaker demand in commercial projects and did so while maintaining strong profitability.

該團隊繼續佔領市場份額並增加住宅產品的銷量，抵消商業項目需求疲軟的影響，並同時保持強勁的獲利能力。

The CPP team has successfully completed their global sourcing expansion ahead of schedule and these efforts are already contributing to CPPs profit margin, which will continue to improve in the coming years.

CPP 團隊提前成功完成了全球採購擴張，這些努力已經為 CPP 的利潤率做出了貢獻，並將在未來幾年繼續提高。

I cannot say enough about how well our teams have positioned our company for 2025 and beyond.

對於我們的團隊在 2025 年及以後對公司的定位有多好，我無法說太多。

We firmly believe that we are in an excellent position as we enter fiscal 2025, with a proven strategy, skilled team, robust balance sheet giving us the ability to continue to generate strong financial performance.

我們堅信，在進入 2025 財年時，我們處於有利地位，成熟的策略、熟練的團隊和穩健的資產負債表使我們有能力繼續創造強勁的財務表現。

We will continue to use our strong operating performance and free cash flow to drive a capital allocation strategy that delivers long term value for our shareholders.

我們將繼續利用強勁的經營業績和自由現金流來推動資本配置策略，為股東帶來長期價值。

To put our cash generation capabilities into perspective.

正確看待我們的現金生成能力。

Over the next three years, we expect to generate over $1 billion of free cash flow.

未來三年，我們預計將產生超過 10 億美元的自由現金流。

We intend to use this cash to execute our ongoing share repurchase program, pay down debt, complete tuck in acquisitions and make high return investments in our business.

我們打算用這筆現金執行我們正在進行的股票回購計劃、償還債務、完成收購並對我們的業務進行高回報投資。

This strategy underscores the confidence Griffin's Board and management has in our outlook and strategic plan.

這項策略強調了格里芬董事會和管理階層對我們的前景和策略計畫的信心。

Before we take any questions, I'll also ask you to take a look at our new refreshed website, www.griffin.com.

在我們回答任何問題之前，我也請您瀏覽一下我們更新後的新網站 www.griffin.com。

And with that operator, we are happy to take questions.

我們很樂意與該接線員一起回答問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Bob Labick, CJS Securities.

拉比克 (Bob Labick)，CJS 證券公司。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

It's actually Lee Jagoda for Bob this morning.

今天早上鮑伯其實是李賈戈達。

So just, I guess, starting with the door side, can you talk about the successes you've seen on the commercial door side, cross selling through our dealer network and how much room there is to run there from here?

所以，我想，從門側開始，您能否談談您在商業門側看到的成功，透過我們的經銷商網路進行交叉銷售，以及從這裡開始還有多少空間？

And then on the resi side, maybe just talk about some of the key factors your customers look for when they're choosing a door and why you win versus your competition?

然後在 Resi 方面，也許只是談談您的客戶在選擇門時尋找的一些關鍵因素以及為什麼您能在競爭中獲勝？

Sure.

當然。

On the commercial side and regarding selling co-pay sectional commercial product to our commercial dealers.

在商業方面，以及關於向我們的商業經銷商銷售共同支付部分商業產品。

That is an ongoing process that will continue for likely years to come.

這是一個持續的過程，可能會在未來幾年持續下去。

We're seeing general some softness in commercial this past year and expect that to continue through '25 and we expect it to generally turn in '26.

我們看到去年商業活動總體疲軟，預計這種情況將持續到 25 年，我們預計這種情況將在 26 年普遍好轉。

But as far as that project goes, there's a lot of runway ahead of us.

但就該項目而言，我們還有很長的路要走。

On the residential side of the business, we're able to win on many points.

在住宅業務方面，我們能夠在許多方面獲勝。

We have consistently come up with new design that consumers are attracted to.

我們不斷推出吸引消費者的新設計。

We have for our direct customers, our dealers, we have the best selling tools, the best distribution that supports them and all these factors together really help our products succeed in the marketplace.

我們為我們的直接客戶、我們的經銷商提供最暢銷的工具、支援他們的最佳分銷，所有這些因素共同真正幫助我們的產品在市場上取得成功。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I guess I'll given what's going on in the macro environment.

然後我想我會給出宏觀環境中正在發生的事情。

I'll ask the obligatory tariff question.

我會問強制性關稅問題。

Maybe just speak to, how you would be impacted directly from tariffs and then from a competitive standpoint, whether it's a benefit or a headwind to you, if we do see tariffs here.

也許只是談談，如果我們確實在這裡看到關稅，您將如何直接受到關稅的影響，然後從競爭的角度來看，這對您來說是有利還是不利。

No, I'll start by saying we're not going to speculate or assume what I will say is that our HBP business is an American made business that's not subject to foreign competition and tariffs are relevant for that side of our business.

不，我首先要說的是，我們不會推測或假設我要說的是，我們的 HBP 業務是美國製造的業務，不受外國競爭的影響，關稅與我們業務的這方面相關。

For the CPP side, we've been here before, and we know how to deal with the ability to pass along tariff increased costs.

對於CPP方面，我們以前經歷過這種情況，我們知道如何處理轉嫁關稅增加成本的問題。

We have a global sourcing model that allows us the flexibility to move our manufacturing to whatever the cheapest cost and whatever the best way to deliver product to our customers in the United States.

我們擁有全球採購模式，使我們能夠靈活地以最便宜的成本和最佳方式向美國客戶交付產品。

So we are very optimistic about the impact of the broader bullish business trends that we think are going to be emerging in 2025 and beyond.

因此，我們對 2025 年及以後出現的更廣泛的看漲商業趨勢的影響非常樂觀。

Then the ongoing ability for us to navigate through a very foggy economic environment over the last several years.

然後是我們在過去幾年中度過一個非常迷霧的經濟環境的持續能力。

We see rays of sunshine ahead and we think we'll be able to position our company regardless of what tariffs may or may not do to be able to improve both volume and profitability.

我們看到了前方的陽光，我們認為，無論關稅可能會或可能不會影響我們的公司，我們都能夠定位我們的公司，以提高銷量和盈利能力。

Sam Darkatsh, Raymond James.

山姆達卡特什，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, Ron.

早安，羅恩。

Good morning, Brian.

早安，布萊恩。

How are you?

你好嗎？

(inaudible) How are you Sam?

（聽不清楚）山姆你好嗎？

I'm well as well.

我也很好。

Thank you for asking.

謝謝你的詢問。

First question as it relates to steel.

第一個問題與鋼鐵有關。

As I recall in the June quarter, Brian, I think you had a couple of 100 basis points of headwind specific to the HBP segment.

Brian，我記得在 6 月季度，HBP 細分市場遇到了幾個 100 個基點的逆風。

Because if you're the lag between when, what happens in the, in the stock markets versus when it hits your P&L.

因為如果你的股票市場發生的事情與觸及你的損益表的時間之間存在滯後。

Can you help us with what the headwind tailwind was in the September quarter and what you're anticipating for steel?

您能否幫助我們了解九月季度的逆風和順風以及您對鋼鐵的預期？

Up or down in the effects of which in fiscal '25 and then I've got a follow up.

25 財年的影響是上升還是下降，然後我會跟進。

Sure.

當然。

So for the fourth quarter, we saw a reversal in the trend we saw in the third quarter but not a complete reversal.

因此，在第四季度，我們看到了第三季度趨勢的逆轉，但不是完全逆轉。

So there was a little bit of overhang into the early month and then steel prices normalized.

因此，月初鋼材價格出現了一些過剩，然後鋼材價格恢復正常。

As far as '25, we expect the current levels to be maintained through that.

就 25 年而言，我們預計目前的水準將保持不變。

That's our assumption for the year.

這是我們今年的假設。

Maintain, meaning it will be a tailwind, '25 versus '24 when you look at the entire fiscal year?

維持不變，這意味著當您審視整個財年時，「25 年」與「24 年」相比將是一個順風車？

No, '24 was about flat with '23 for the whole fiscal year and we expect '25 to roughly be flat with '24.

不，整個財年的「24」與「23」基本持平，我們預計「25」將與「24」大致持平。

Terrific.

了不起。

And then my follow-up question, it actually is a follow-up to the prior question around the tariffs.

然後是我的後續問題，它實際上是先前有關關稅問題的後續問題。

If I could ask you to be a little bit more specific.

如果我可以問你更具體一點的話。

If we do see 60% tariffs from Chinese product as it stands now, what would be the approximate dollar impact to CPP and how quickly could you move from China if such a development were to occur?

如果我們確實看到中國產品按目前的情況徵收 60% 的關稅，美元對 CPP 的影響大約是多少？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

See, I appreciate the question.

看，我很欣賞這個問題。

The potential new tariff regime has a lot more questions and answers at this point.

目前，潛在的新關稅制度還有更多問題和答案。

So we don't think it's appropriate to speculate on which products or geographies will be impacted on what those amounts will be.

因此，我們認為推測哪些產品或地區將受到這些金額的影響是不合適的。

We've benefited from successfully managing tariffs from the past as Ron mentioned, and believe this experience will serve us well going forward.

正如羅恩所提到的那樣，我們從過去成功的關稅管理中受益匪淺，並相信這種經驗將有助於我們未來的發展。

We work with our suppliers and customers as we have done in the past to mitigate the impact of the tariffs.

我們像過去一樣與供應商和客戶合作，以減輕關稅的影響。

And we expect to manage through any tariff policy and meet our long-term guidance for CPP of 15%.

我們預計能夠應對任何關稅政策並達到我們對 CPP 15% 的長期指導。

Trey Grooms, Stephens.

特雷格魯姆斯、史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Congrats and well done in the quarter.

恭喜，本季做得很好。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

So I wanted to touch on just CPP profitability next year, EBITDA margins to be in excess of 9%.

所以我想談談明年 CPP 的獲利能力，EBITDA 利潤率將超過 9%。

And tariffs aside, how should we be thinking about the trajectory there?

除了關稅之外，我們該如何考慮那裡的發展軌跡？

Maybe any update on how we could think about an exit rate in '25 for CPP?

也許有關於我們如何考慮 25 年 CPP 退出率的任何更新？

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

We expect the first half for CPP to continue to be muted, I would say from the soft demand in the North America, the US specifically.

我們預計上半年 CPP 將繼續低迷，我想說的是北美（特別是美國）的需求疲軟。

And we'll be selling more manufactured inventory as the year starts.

從年初開始，我們將銷售更多的製造庫存。

As we go through the year, that will transition to sourced inventory.

隨著這一年的推移，這將轉變為採購庫存。

So we expect the margins to follow and improve as the year continues.

因此，我們預計隨著時間的推移，利潤率將隨之改善。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And just kind of along those lines.

就是沿著這些思路。

On HBP, as we think about, I mean, you guys are, have put up great margins there.

在 HBP 上，正如我們所想，我的意思是，你們在那裡取得了巨大的利潤。

You're projecting these strong margins to continue into next year.

您預計這些強勁的利潤率將持續到明年。

But what are you thinking on kind of the cost or price cost outlook for '25?

但您對 25 年的成本或價格成本前景有何看法？

Is there any expectation that you have there for any adjustments or foresee any kind of need to make any changes there?

您是否期望進行任何調整或預見到需要進行任何更改？

Yes.

是的。

So we expect generally pricing costs to remain similar to 2024.

因此，我們預計整體定價成本將與 2024 年保持相似。

We will make any adjustments if that changes, if there's any changes in input costs.

如果情況發生變化，如果投入成本有任何變化，我們將做出任何調整。

But at the moment, we expect that to be stable and price to remain stable.

但目前，我們預期價格將保持穩定。

And I'll just add, we've proven ourselves to be a resilient business throughout the development from residential to the inclusion of commercial Clopay, the management team has done an outstanding job of building this, and we think there is an enormous amount of both market share gains and volume gains, particularly on the commercial side in the years ahead.

我只想補充一點，從住宅到商業 Clopay 的整個開發過程，我們已經證明自己是一家有彈性的企業，管理團隊在建立這一點方面做得非常出色，我們認為有大量的市場份額和銷量的增長，特別是在未來幾年的商業方面。

This is a sustainable business, a 30% margin business has developed over a period of 15 years of investment and building, and we're clearly the leader in the garage or rolling steel door, commercial door business, and we intend to grow it.

這是一項可持續發展的業務，經過 15 年的投資和建設，我們已經發展了 30% 的利潤率業務，我們顯然是車庫或捲鋼門、商業門業務的領導者，我們打算發展它。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Julio Romero, Sidoti & Company.

胡里奧·羅梅羅，西多蒂公司。

Hey, good morning, Ron, Brian.

嘿，早上好，羅恩，布萊恩。

Maybe to start on to CPP.

或許可以開始 CPP。

When the shift to sourced inventory does kind of kick in, how would you have us think about the pace of the margin improvement that you should see when that happens?

當向採購庫存的轉變確實開始時，您會讓我們如何考慮當這種情況發生時您應該看到的利潤率改善的速度？

Would they improve gradually?

他們會逐漸改善嗎？

Or do you kind of expect a more pronounced step up?

或者您期望有更明顯的進步？

Yes.

是的。

It really will happen gradually because the changeover from manufacturers to source will happen gradually as we work down one and ramp up the other.

這確實會逐漸發生，因為隨著我們減少一個並增加另一個，從製造商到來源的轉變將逐漸發生。

Generally, looking into '25 from '24 and then for the successive years beyond as we march to 15%, we would expect to see a similar type increase that we saw in '24, in '25 and then again in '26.

一般來說，從 24 年到 25 年，以及隨後的幾年，當我們邁向 15% 時，我們預計會看到與 24 年、25 年和 26 年類似的增長。

Excellent.

出色的。

And for my follow-up, Ron, you mentioned a long-term goal to generate over $1 billion of free cash flow over the next three years.

在我的後續行動中，羅恩，您提到了一個長期目標，即在未來三年內產生超過 10 億美元的自由現金流。

Can you kind of just talk about the assumptions that are embedded in that expectation and if you're going to be doing anything different over the next three years?

您能否談談該期望中包含的假設以及您在未來三年內是否會做一些不同的事情？

Thank you.

謝謝。

The assumption is we're just going to continue to run the company on the trajectory that it's on that does not have any acquisitions built into it.

我們的假設是，我們將繼續按照不進行任何收購的軌道來經營公司。

That is an organic story about continued growth and improvement on the businesses that we already own and it's assuming our ability to maintain the margins that we've built on the HBP side and enjoy the success of these global sourcing initiative on the CPP side.

這是一個關於我們已經擁有的業務持續成長和改​​進的有機故事，並且假設我們有能力維持我們在 HBP 方面建立的利潤，並享受 CPP 方面這些全球採購計劃的成功。

We are in a very strong position.

我們處於非常有利的地位。

We don't have a debt maturity until '28, and we expect to generate a significant amount of free cash flow that cash flow will go to either buy back stock or de-lever the company.

我們的債務要到 28 年才到期，我們預計將產生大量自由現金流，這些現金流將用於回購股票或降低公司槓桿率。

We think our stock is materially undervalued, and we'll continue to close the value gap from free cash flow.

我們認為我們的股票被嚴重低估，我們將繼續透過自由現金流來縮小價值差距。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question and answer session.

女士們、先生們，問答環節到此結束。

I will now hand the conference over to Ron Kramer CEO for closing comments.

我現在將會議交給執行長 Ron Kramer 發表總結評論。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

And again, I want to thank all of our 5,300 employees around the world for making this such a successful year and here's to making '25 better.

我要再次感謝我們在世界各地的 5,300 名員工，是他們讓今年取得如此成功的一年，並讓 25 世紀變得更好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference of Griffin Corporation has now concluded.

格里芬公司的會議至此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。