GE Vernova Inc (GEV) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 2025年營收成長9%至380億美元,訂單年增34%至590億美元,調整後EBITDA年增46%,自由現金流達37億美元,均創新高。
    • 上修2026年財測,營收預估由410-420億美元調升至440-450億美元,調整後EBITDA維持11-13%,自由現金流預估提升至50-55億美元,並納入Prolec GE併購效益。
    • 宣布2026年股息加倍、庫藏股授權由60億美元增至100億美元,S&P與Fitch均調升信評展望。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 強勁的燃氣設備與服務訂單動能,2025年新增24GW合約,全年Power設備訂單倍增,服務訂單年增12%。
      • 電氣化(Electrification)受惠於全球電力需求、資料中心與電網升級,2025年訂單與營收分別年增21%與26%,2026年預計再成長20%(不含Prolec GE)。
      • Prolec GE併購快速獲批,將帶來約30億美元營收增量,並強化變壓器與資料中心供應鏈布局。
      • 設備與服務積壓訂單(backlog)大幅成長至1500億美元,設備積壓年增50%,服務積壓年增13%,為未來數年獲利奠定基礎。
      • 自動化、AI與先進製程投資推動生產力提升,2025年工廠產能與人力大幅擴充,預計2026年下半年燃氣渦輪產能顯著提升。
    • 風險:
      • 美國政府2025年12月暫停離岸風電案,導致Vineyard Wind專案延遲並產生額外損失,2026年風電營收恐受影響。
      • 風電(Wind)事業仍處於虧損,2025年虧損6億美元,高於預期,2026年預計虧損約4億美元,且美國本土訂單仍受許可與關稅不確定性影響。
      • 原物料與通膨壓力持續,雖多數合約已鎖定成本,但長期服務合約仍有部分價格調整風險。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Power設備積壓:由62GW季增至83GW,年增顯著,預計2026年底達100GW。
    • Power服務積壓:季增50億美元,年增90億美元,達700億美元。
    • Electrification積壓:季增40億美元,年增110億美元,達350億美元,2025年為史上最大單季訂單。
    • Wind訂單:2025年Q4約30億美元,為年度高點,惟美國本土訂單仍疲弱。
    • 2025年自由現金流:37億美元,年增20億美元。
    • 2025年調整後EBITDA:年增46%,毛利率提升210個基點。
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026年營收預估44-45億美元(含Prolec GE),原預估41-42億美元。
    • 2026年調整後EBITDA margin預估11-13%。
    • 2026年自由現金流預估50-55億美元,原預估45-50億美元。
    • 2025-2028年累計CapEx與研發投資約110億美元(含Prolec GE)。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 燃氣設備訂單與積壓大幅成長,客戶結構與價格趨勢如何?
      A: 客戶討論熱度持續升溫,SRA(slot reservation agreements)價格較現有積壓高10-20%,預期2026年訂單結構將由現行40/43(訂單/SRA)轉為60/40,且未來數年價格與毛利仍有提升空間。
    • Q: 小型渦輪機廠商是否會搶市、壓低價格?
      A: 小型應用有助於加速專案啟動,但長期大容量燃氣渦輪仍具效率與經濟性優勢,GE Vernova對市占與價格維持高度信心。
    • Q: Power事業積壓毛利率大幅提升,2026年是否續增?
      A: 2022年起Power設備積壓毛利率已提升17個百分點,2026年預期將持續健康成長,預計今年積壓毛利增幅不亞於2025年(約80億美元)。
    • Q: Electrification成長動能來自市場還是GE自身?Prolec GE併購效益?
      A: 2025年成長主因為GE能整合發電與電氣設備,提供差異化解決方案,非單純市場成長。Prolec GE併購將強化全球變壓器供應,尤其資料中心需求,並優化全球產能配置。
    • Q: 核能(SMR)專案進度與機會?
      A: 核能機會持續擴大,與美國、瑞典、波蘭等政府積極洽談,但產業重啟需時,專案轉化為訂單的速度較燃氣與電網慢,預期對2020年代後半貢獻顯著。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to GE Vernova's fourth quarter And full year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加GE Vernova 2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(操作員說明)我叫莉茲,今天我將擔任你們的會議協調員。(操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I'd now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Michael Lapides, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

    現在,我將把主持權交給今天的主持人,投資者關係副總裁邁克爾·拉皮德斯。請繼續。

  • Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Welcome to GE Vernova's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Scott Strazik; and CFO, Ken Parks.

    歡迎參加GE Vernova 2025年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有我們的執行長史考特·斯特拉齊克和財務長肯·帕克斯。

  • Our conference call remarks will include both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in today's press release and presentation slides, both of which are available on our website.

    我們的電話會議演講將包括GAAP和非GAAP財務表現。GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調整情況可在今天的新聞稿和簡報中找到,這兩份文件均可在我們的網站上找到。

  • Please note that our year-over-year commentary or variances on orders, revenue, adjusted and segment EBITDA and margin discussed during our prepared remarks are on an organic basis, unless otherwise specified.

    請注意,除非另有說明,我們在準備好的發言稿中討論的同比訂單、收入、調整後和分部 EBITDA 及利潤率的評論或差異均以有機增長為基礎。

  • In addition, our 2026 guidance and our by 2028 outlook being presented today include the Prolec GE acquisition. We will make forward-looking statements on our performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. While we may elect to update these forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we do not undertake any obligation to do so.

    此外,我們今天提出的 2026 年業績指引和 2028 年展望都包含了對 Prolec GE 的收購。我們將對公司業績做出前瞻性聲明。這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。雖然我們將來可能會選擇更新這些前瞻性聲明,但我們不承擔任何更新的義務。

  • As described in our SEC filings, actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.

    正如我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述,由於風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。

  • With that, I'll hand it over to Scott.

    這樣,我就把它交給史考特了。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. We have been busy since our December 9 Investor Update, and I thought I'd start with progress since the event. First, on the positive. We continue to see very strong new gas contracts with an incremental 6 gigawatts signed in the last three weeks of December, for a total of 24 gigawatts of new contracts in 4Q '25 alone.

    謝謝你,麥可。各位早安,歡迎參加我們第四季財報電話會議。自 12 月 9 日投資者更新會議以來,我們一直很忙,我想先從會議以來的進展開始說起。首先,說說正面積極的一面。我們繼續看到非常強勁的新天然氣合同,12 月最後三週新增簽署了 6 吉瓦,僅 2025 年第四季度就新增了 24 吉瓦的合約。

  • We also ended the year with strong orders in both Electrification and Wind. Electrification had its largest order quarter in its history and Wind had its largest order quarter of '25.

    我們在電氣化和風能領域也取得了強勁的訂單,為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號。電氣化業務迎來了其歷史上最大的訂單季度,風能業務也迎來了 2025 年最大的訂單季度。

  • On the negative, we have been impacted by the US government halting of all offshore wind activity on December 22, which led to us booking an incremental accrual in 4Q for costs associated with the delay on the Vineyard Wind project. Ken will talk more about this in his section.

    不利的一面是,由於美國政府於 12 月 22 日暫停了所有離岸風電活動,我們受到了影響,導致我們在第四季度提列了與 Vineyard Wind 工程延誤相關的額外費用。Ken會在他的章節中詳細討論這個問題。

  • I'm pleased that our Prolec GE acquisition has received rapid approval from all required jurisdictions. This will allow us to close the acquisition on Monday, February 2. Taking all this into consideration, we are raising our full year '26 financial guidance, which now includes GE Vernova's full ownership and operation of Prolec for 11 months in '26.

    我很高興我們對 Prolec GE 的收購已迅速獲得所有相關司法管轄區的批准。這將使我們能夠在2月2日星期一完成收購。考慮到所有這些因素,我們提高了 2026 年全年財務預期,其中現在包括 GE Vernova 在 2026 年 11 個月內完全擁有和經營 Prolec。

  • Taken in totality, the last three weeks of December since our last update were a reasonable proxy for our '25 performance in total: strong growth in our largest, most profitable businesses with momentum continuing; challenges and wins that we are continuing to combat with accretive capital allocation with the approvals required to close our first sizable acquisition as a stand-alone public company. '25 sets us up for substantially more profitable growth moving forward.

    總體而言,自上次更新以來的12月最後三週,可以較為準確地反映我們2025年的整體業績:我們規模最大、盈利能力最強的業務實現了強勁增長,且增長勢頭持續;我們正通過持續的資本增值配置來應對挑戰並取得成功,同時正在推進完成作為獨立上市公司的首筆大型收購所需的審批工作。 2025年為我們未來實現更顯著的獲利成長奠定了基礎。

  • In '25, we increased our total backlog by over 25% or $31 billion to $150 billion, with robust profitable order growth in Power and Electrification, further underscoring our momentum as we kick off '26. In Power, we continue to see accelerating demand and favorable pricing trends for both equipment and services as customers invest in new units and existing assets.

    2025 年,我們的總積壓訂單增加了 25% 以上,即 310 億美元,達到 1500 億美元,其中電力和電氣化領域的盈利訂單增長強勁,進一步鞏固了我們在 2026 年伊始的發展勢頭。在電力領域,隨著客戶投資新設備和現有資產,我們持續看到設備和服務的需求加速成長,價格趨勢也趨於有利。

  • In 4Q, gas power equipment backlog and slot reservations increased from 62 to 83 gigawatts sequentially, primarily due to strong US demand, but also with agreements in the Middle East, Vietnam and Taiwan, with backlog increasing from 33 to 40 gigawatts and SRAs increasing from 29 to 43 gigawatts. We expect to reach approximately 100 gigawatts under contract in '26 under the assumption we'll ship high teens in gigawatts this year with new contracts north of 30 gigawatts.

    第四季度,燃氣發電設備積壓訂單和預留裝置容量環比從 62 吉瓦增加到 83 吉瓦,主要原因是美國需求強勁,但也得益於在中東、越南和台灣達成的協議,其中積壓訂單從 33 吉瓦增加到 40 吉瓦,預留裝機容量從 29 吉瓦。我們預計,在2026年,合約裝置容量將達到約100吉瓦,前提是我們今年的出貨量將達到十幾吉瓦,並且新合約的裝置容量將超過30吉瓦。

  • In 4Q, we grew our power services backlog to $70 billion, up $5 billion sequentially and $9 billion year-over-year. This increase was mainly driven by strength in gas with customers investing in fleets and signing new long-term service agreements at favorable pricing, which drove strong, high-margin services backlog growth.

    第四季度,我們的電力服務積壓訂單成長至 700 億美元,季增 50 億美元,年增 90 億美元。這一成長主要得益於天然氣市場的強勁表現,客戶投資車隊並以優惠的價格簽訂新的長期服務協議,從而推動了高利潤率服務積壓訂單的強勁增長。

  • In Electrification, customers are working to keep pace with growing electricity demand, grid stability needs and national security interests. In 4Q, we grew the segment's total backlog to $35 billion, up $4 billion sequentially and $11 billion year-over-year, representing Electrification's largest growth quarter on a dollar basis in '25.

    在電氣化進程中,客戶正努力跟上不斷增長的電力需求、電網穩定性要求和國家安全利益。第四季度,該業務部門的總積壓訂單增長至 350 億美元,環比增長 40 億美元,年增 110 億美元,這是 2025 年電氣化業務以美元計算增長最大的季度。

  • Importantly, we are seeing demand across the segment for grid and data center equipment, both with traditional customers globally and hyperscalers, primarily in the US. Of note, over $2 billion of Electrification's orders were signed directly for data centers in '25, more than triple the '24 total.

    重要的是,我們看到整個產業對電網和資料中心設備的需求都在成長,無論是全球傳統客戶還是超大規模企業,主要集中在美國。值得注意的是,2025 年 Electrification 公司直接簽署的資料中心訂單超過 20 億美元,是 2024 年總額的三倍多。

  • We also signed large deals for providing grid resilience and reliability solutions in Saudi Arabia and Australia, an HVDC contract in Germany, and a large grid equipment contract in Iraq in the year. In Wind, we received approximately $3 billion of orders in 4Q, the largest of the year for the segment. In onshore, we continue to receive tax elects for repowering and new units as customers utilize safe harbor and initiate physical work for approximately 10 gigawatts of repowering opportunities in the US. The team is focused on what we can control.

    今年,我們還與沙烏地阿拉伯和澳洲簽署了提供電網彈性和可靠性解決方案的大額合同,與德國簽署了高壓直流輸電合同,並與伊拉克簽署了大型電網設備合同。在風能領域,我們在第四季度獲得了約 30 億美元的訂單,這是該領域今年以來最大的訂單量。在陸上,我們繼續獲得改造和新建機組的稅收優惠,因為客戶利用安全港條款,並在美國啟動了大約 10 吉瓦的改造項目的實際工作。團隊專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

  • Taken together, our pathway to substantially more profitable growth is right in front of us. I'll talk about this more on page 5 with the growth of margin in our equipment backlog, including $8 billion of incremental margin added to our equipment backlog in '25.

    綜上所述,我們通往更高獲利成長的道路就在眼前。我將在第 5 頁更詳細地討論這一點,包括我們設備積壓訂單利潤的成長,以及 2025 年設備積壓訂單新增 80 億美元的利潤。

  • I'm also pleased with the returns that our '25 investments are yielding. On the CapEx side, we remain on track to see a substantial step-up in gas turbine output in 3Q '26. We installed over 200 new machines in our factories while adding nearly 1,000 new production workers in '25. We plan on adding an incremental 200 machines and over 500 production workers in '26.

    我對我們2025年的投資所獲得的收益也感到滿意。在資本支出方面,我們仍有望在 2026 年第三季實現燃氣渦輪機產量的大幅提升。2025 年,我們在工廠安裝了 200 多台新機器,同時增加了近 1000 名新的生產工人。我們計劃在 2026 年新增 200 台機器和 500 多名生產工人。

  • Electrification is on track with its growth, delivering more than 25% revenue growth in '25 with a clear pathway to deliver $13.5 billion to $14 billion in revenue, representing 20% organic growth, plus approximately $3 billion from Prolec GE in '26.

    電氣化正按計畫發展,2025 年收入成長超過 25%,並有明確的路徑實現 135 億美元至 140 億美元的收入,代表 20% 的內生成長,加上 2026 年 Prolec GE 帶來的約 30 億美元收入。

  • Our investments in automation and robotics are advancing at scale, and AI is starting to gain momentum in our engineering organizations and back-office functions. Our Advanced Research Center is progressing future businesses for us. This includes direct air capture, where we already have a facility up and running, real momentum in our solid-state transformer program and a good technical progress on our fuel cell program in Malta, New York.

    我們在自動化和機器人領域的投資正在大規模推進,人工智慧也開始在我們的工程組織和後台職能部門中獲得發展動力。我們的先進研究中心正在為我們未來的業務發展奠定基礎。這包括直接空氣捕獲(我們已經有一個設施投入運營)、固態變壓器項目的真正進展,以及我們在紐約州馬耳他的燃料電池項目的良好技術進展。

  • We are making all of these investments from a position of financial strength, ending the year with almost $9 billion in cash. In '25, we were able to return $3.6 billion to our shareholders while repurchasing more than 8 million of our shares. We continue to see substantial opportunity to create value including through incremental investments with strong returns.

    我們憑藉著雄厚的財務實力進行所有這些投資,年底時現金儲備接近 90 億美元。2025年,我們回購了超過800萬股股票,同時向股東返還了36億美元。我們持續看到創造價值的巨大機會,包括透過增量投資獲得豐厚回報。

  • A few more comments on our financial performance on page 4. We booked $59 billion of orders, up 34% year-over-year. We also grew our revenue by 9% year-over-year to $38 billion, with growth in both equipment and services, while increasing our adjusted EBITDA margin by 210 basis points year-over-year. We generated $3.7 billion in free cash flow, more than double our prior year, while investing more than $2 billion in R&D and CapEx.

    關於我們的財務業績,還有幾點需要說明,請參閱第 4 頁。我們獲得了價值 590 億美元的訂單,年增 34%。我們的營收也年增了 9%,達到 380 億美元,設備和服務均實現了成長,同時調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率年增了 210 個基點。我們創造了 37 億美元的自由現金流,是去年的兩倍多,同時在研發和資本支出方面投資了 20 多億美元。

  • We are increasing our '26 guidance and [by '28 outlook], which now includes Prolec GE. Ken will speak to this more in a moment. And as announced, we are doubling our dividend in '26 versus '25 and have increased our stock buyback authorization to $10 billion from the previously approved $6 billion program.

    我們正在提高 2026 年的業績預期和 2028 年的展望,其中現在包括 Prolec GE。肯稍後會就此作更詳細地談。正如先前宣布的那樣,我們將 2026 年的股息比 2025 年翻一番,並將股票回購授權額從先前批准的 60 億美元增加到 100 億美元。

  • One of the primary drivers of our conviction on our path forward is the significant growth and margin expansion in our equipment backlog again in '25, which I will touch on in the next page. On page 5, we show the growth of margin in our equipment backlog consistent with our practice from last January.

    我們對未來發展道路充滿信心的主要驅動力之一是 2025 年設備積壓訂單的顯著增長和利潤率擴張,我將在下一頁談到這一點。第 5 頁顯示,自去年 1 月以來,我們的設備積壓訂單利潤率成長與以往一致。

  • We started '25 with the expectation to increase our margin dollars and equipment backlog above our run rate in the prior two years. We achieved that expectation, adding $8 billion in equipment backlog margin in '25, more than the prior two years combined.

    2025 年伊始,我們預期利潤額和設備積壓訂單量能夠超過前兩年的水準。我們實現了預期目標,2025 年新增設備積壓訂單利潤 80 億美元,超過了前兩年的總和。

  • We ended '25 with $64 billion in equipment backlog, an increase of approximately 50% year-over-year, with an incremental 6 points in equipment margin expansion. This included 11 points of growth in Power, mainly driven by our gas power business. We expect significant growth again in Power and Electrification's backlog in '26 at better margins as we convert higher-priced gas slot reservation agreements into orders and benefit from strong demand and pricing for grid equipment. These businesses' longer equipment cycles mean that we will not begin delivering on the majority of the higher-margin orders placed in '24 and '25 until '27 and beyond.

    2025 年末,我們的設備積壓訂單達 640 億美元,年增約 50%,設備利潤率也提高了 6 個百分點。其中電力業務成長了 11 個百分點,主要得益於我們的燃氣發電業務。我們預計,隨著我們將價格較高的天然氣配額預訂協議轉化為訂單,並受益於電網設備的強勁需求和價格,2026 年電力和電氣化業務的積壓訂單將再次大幅增長,利潤率也將更高。由於這些企業的設備更新周期較長,我們預計要到 2027 年及以後才能開始交付 2024 年和 2025 年下的絕大多數高利潤訂單。

  • In Wind, we expect relatively stable margins this year and for backlog to decrease as we execute on the remaining unprofitable offshore Wind backlog, and project a smaller onshore Wind backlog given the recent softness in US orders.

    在風電領域,我們預計今年的利潤率相對穩定,隨著我們完成剩餘的無利可圖的離岸風電積壓訂單,積壓訂單將會減少;鑑於近期美國訂單疲軟,我們預計陸上風電積壓訂單也會減少。

  • As we noted in December, we see incremental opportunity for the teams to expand margins that are not projected in our backlog today. This includes our operating teams delivering our backlog with variable cost productivity versus known cost today, accelerating capacity additions, leveraging lean to sell incremental slots and a recovery in US onshore wind orders.

    正如我們在 12 月指出的那樣,我們看到團隊有機會逐步擴大利潤率,而這些利潤率目前並未在我們的待辦事項清單中得到體現。這包括我們的營運團隊以可變成本生產力而非目前的已知成本交付積壓訂單,加快產能擴張,利用精實生產銷售增量名額,以及美國陸上風電訂單的復甦。

  • In summary, good progress in '25, and we are excited about what's ahead. With continued strong demand and pricing in gas, the strong demand environment across multiple products in Electrification and my expectation for the team to drive variable cost productivity not embedded in our backlog margins today, we expect to add at least as much equipment margin dollars in backlog in '26 as in '25, setting us up for even more profitable growth over the long term.

    總而言之,2025 年取得了良好的進展,我們對未來充滿期待。由於天然氣需求和價格持續強勁,電氣化領域多種產品的需求環境強勁,我期望團隊能夠提高目前未計入我們積壓訂單利潤率的可變成本生產力,我們預計 2026 年積壓訂​​單中的設備利潤率至少會與 2025 年一樣多,這將為我們長期實現更盈利的增長奠定基礎。

  • Said differently, in totality, the equipment margin and backlog from '23 to '26, those four years will add at least $22 billion in equipment margin, driving future profitable growth.

    換句話說,從 2023 年到 2026 年,設備利潤和積壓訂單總額將增加至少 220 億美元的設備利潤,從而推動未來的獲利成長。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Ken for more details on our full year and fourth quarter performance as well as our financial outlook.

    接下來,我將把電話交給 Ken,讓他詳細介紹我們全年和第四季的業績以及財務展望。

  • Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

    Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Scott. Turning to slide 6. We finished 2025 strong with robust orders, growing backlog and revenues, margin expansion and significant free cash flow generation. In the fourth quarter, we booked orders of $22.2 billion, a 65% increase year-over-year and a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 2 times. Equipment orders increased 91% while service orders increased 22%. All three segments delivered significant orders growth across equipment and services.

    謝謝你,斯科特。翻到第6張投影片。2025 年末,我們取得了強勁的業績,訂單充足,積壓訂單和收入不斷增長,利潤率擴大,自由現金流顯著增加。第四季度,我們獲得了 222 億美元的訂單,年增 65%,訂單出貨比約為 2 倍。設備訂單增加了 91%,服務訂單增加了 22%。三個業務板塊在設備和服務方面均實現了顯著的訂單成長。

  • As Scott mentioned, our backlog expanded to $150 billion, a year-over-year and sequential increase, with equipment backlog increasing to $64 billion, up approximately $21 billion and 50% year-over-year, while our services backlog grew $10 billion or 13% year-over-year to $86 billion led by Power.

    正如斯科特所提到的,我們的積壓訂單擴大到 1500 億美元,同比增長和環比增長,其中設備積壓訂單增加到 640 億美元,同比增長約 210 億美元,增幅達 50%;而我們的服務積壓訂單同比增長 100 億美元,增幅達 13%,達到 860 億美元,主要由電力帶動。

  • Revenue increased 2% with services growth in all three segments. Equipment revenue was flat year-over-year as 41% growth at Electrification and 8% growth at Power was offset by anticipated lower Wind revenues. Price was positive in all segments.

    營收成長2%,三大業務板塊的服務均成長。設備營收與去年同期持平,電氣化業務成長 41%,電力業務成長 8%,但風能業務收入預期下降,兩者的增幅被抵銷。所有細分市場的價格均呈現上漲趨勢。

  • Adjusted EBITDA grew 6% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, led by Electrification and Power. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 30 basis points with higher price and productivity more than offsetting higher contract losses at offshore wind as well as inflation and investments in growth and innovation.

    經調整的 EBITDA 年成長 6% 至 12 億美元,主要得益於電氣化和電力業務的成長。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率成長了 30 個基點,價格和生產力的提高超過了離岸風電合約損失增加、通貨膨脹以及對成長和創新的投資所帶來的影響。

  • The strong adjusted EBITDA and working capital management drove positive free cash flow of $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter. Working capital was a $2.3 billion cash benefit driven primarily by down payments on higher orders and slot reservations at Power as well as higher orders at Electrification.

    第四季強勁的調整後 EBITDA 和營運資本管理推動了 18 億美元的正自由現金流。營運資金為 23 億美元現金收益,主要得益於電力部門更高訂單的預付款和預留名額,以及電氣化部門更高訂單的增加。

  • Year-over-year, free cash flow increased more than $1 billion, driven by higher positive benefits from working capital and stronger adjusted EBITDA, partially offset by higher CapEx investments supporting capacity expansion.

    與去年同期相比,自由現金流增加了 10 億美元以上,這主要得益於營運資本帶來的更高收益和調整後 EBITDA 的強勁增長,但部分被支持產能擴張的更高資本支出投資所抵消。

  • We ended 4Q with a healthy cash balance of nearly $9 billion, up approximately $1 billion compared to the third quarter. During the fourth quarter, we returned $1.1 billion of cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Also, both S&P and Fitch upgraded our investment grade credit ratings and maintain positive outlooks on these upgraded ratings.

    第四季末,我們的現金餘額健康,接近 90 億美元,比第三季增加了約 10 億美元。第四季度,我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了 11 億美元現金。此外,標普和惠譽均上調了我們的投資等級信用評級,並維持對這些上調評級的正面展望。

  • In early February, we expect to issue roughly $2.6 billion of debt as we complete the previously announced acquisition of the remaining 50% ownership stake of Prolec GE. We'll remain below 1 times gross debt to adjusted EBITDA after this debt issuance.

    預計在 2 月初,我們將發行約 26 億美元的債務,以完成先前宣布的對 Prolec GE 剩餘 50% 股權的收購。此次債務發行後,我們的總債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率將維持在 1 倍以下。

  • We're encouraged by our strong financial performance in 2025. During the year, we secured $59 billion of orders led by Power equipment orders more than doubling and Electrification equipment orders growing more than 20%.

    我們對2025年強勁的財務業績感到鼓舞。年內,我們獲得了 590 億美元的訂單,其中電力設備訂單增長超過一倍,電氣化設備訂單增長超過 20%。

  • Service orders increased 12% with growth in each segment. We delivered approximately $38 billion in revenue with 26% growth in Electrification and 10% growth in Power. We increased adjusted EBITDA by 46% and expanded margins 210 basis points driven by price, volume and productivity, more than offsetting the impact of growth and innovation investments and the impact of tariffs.

    服務訂單成長了 12%,各細分市場均成長。我們實現了約 380 億美元的收入,其中電氣化業務成長了 26%,電力業務成長了 10%。受價格、銷售和生產力的推動,我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 46%,利潤率提高了 210 個基點,這足以抵消成長和創新投資以及關稅的影響。

  • Finally, we generated $3.7 billion of free cash flow, a year-over-year increase of $2 billion. As discussed in prior quarters, we continue to utilize lean to improve our billings and collection processes and drive better cash management and linearity. In 2025, we reduced days sales outstanding by 2 days compared to year-end 2024, resulting in over $200 million of additional free cash flow in 2025. Our growing backlog and healthy margin provides an excellent foundation for continued improvement in our financial performance moving forward.

    最終,我們產生了 37 億美元的自由現金流,比前一年增加了 20 億美元。正如前幾季所討論的,我們繼續利用精益方法來改善我們的帳單和收款流程,並推動更好的現金管理和線性化。2025 年,我們的應收帳款週轉天數比 2024 年底減少了 2 天,從而在 2025 年獲得了超過 2 億美元的額外自由現金流。我們不斷增長的訂單積壓和健康的利潤率為我們未來財務表現的持續改善奠定了良好的基礎。

  • Turning to slide 7. Power delivered another strong year, led by gas power. Power orders in 2025 grew more than 50% given robust demand for gas equipment and growth in services, which, combined, increased backlog by more than $20 billion. Power grew revenue 10% for the year and expanded EBITDA margins by 100 basis points to 14.7%, driven by higher price and productivity, primarily at gas power and steam power.

    翻到第7張投影片。電力產業又迎來強勁的一年,其中天然氣發電表現特別突出。由於對天然氣設備的需求強勁以及服務業的成長,2025 年電力訂單成長超過 50%,這兩項加起來使積壓訂單增加了 200 億美元以上。電力業務全年營收成長 10%,EBITDA 利潤率擴大 100 個基點至 14.7%,主要得益於價格上漲和生產力提高,尤其是燃氣發電和蒸汽發電。

  • In the fourth quarter, Power orders grew 77% led by gas power equipment tripling year-over-year on higher volume and pricing. We booked 41 heavy-duty gas turbines, our largest orders quarter of the year and an increase of more than 70% year-over-year, including 15 HA units. We also secured orders for 18 aeroderivative units, that's 8 more than the fourth quarter of 2024. Power services orders increased 15% as customers continue to invest in their existing fleets.

    第四季度,電力訂單成長了 77%,其中燃氣電力設備銷量和價格上漲帶動銷量比去年同期成長了兩倍。我們訂購了 41 台重型燃氣渦輪機,這是我們本季最大的訂單,年增超過 70%,其中包括 15 台 HA 機組。我們也獲得了 18 台航空衍生設備的訂單,比 2024 年第四季多了 8 台。由於客戶持續投資於現有車隊,電力服務訂單增加了 15%。

  • Revenue increased 5%. Services revenue increased due to higher gas transactional services and nuclear. Equipment revenue increased driven by nuclear as we progress in building our first SMR at the Darlington site with OPG, as well as aeroderivative growth at gas power. This growth was partially offset by fewer heavy-duty gas turbine shipments, primarily due to the improved linearity of deliveries through 2025 compared to 2024.

    收入增長5%。服務收入因天然氣交易服務和核能業務成長而增加。設備收入成長主要得益於核能,因為我們與 OPG 在達靈頓工廠合作建造了第一座小型模組化反應堆,此外,燃氣發電領域的航空衍生品業務也實現了成長。這一增長部分被重型燃氣渦輪機出貨量減少所抵消,這主要是因為與 2024 年相比,到 2025 年的交付線性度有所提高。

  • EBITDA margins expanded 160 basis points to 16.9%, mainly driven by price and productivity more than offsetting additional expenses to support capacity investments at gas and R&D at nuclear along with inflation.

    EBITDA 利潤率成長 160 個基點至 16.9%,主要原因是價格和生產力的成長超過了天然氣產能投資和核能研發等額外支出以及通貨膨脹的影響。

  • Looking to the first quarter of 2026 at Power, we expect continued year-over-year growth in gas equipment orders. We also anticipate high single-digit revenue growth driven by both higher equipment and services. We expect EBITDA margin of approximately 14% to 15% as volume, price and productivity should more than offset additional expenses to support capacity and R&D investments as well as inflation. Given the typical seasonality of services outage, Power revenue and EBITDA margin should be lower sequentially in the first quarter.

    展望 2026 年第一季度,我們預計 Power 的天然氣設備訂單將持續年增。我們也預計,在設備和服務需求增加的推動下,收入將實現高個位數成長。我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率約為 14% 至 15%,因為銷售、價格和生產力的成長應該足以抵消為支持產能和研發投資以及通貨膨脹而產生的額外費用。考慮到服務中斷的典型季節性,第一季電力收入和 EBITDA 利潤率應該會比去年同期下降。

  • Turning to slide 8. The Wind team delivered similar EBITDA losses in 2025 despite the impact of tariffs, driven by improved pricing and higher turbine deliveries at onshore wind, offset by offshore due to the absence of contract cancellation settlement gain recorded in the third quarter of 2024, net of lower year-over-year contract losses.

    翻到第8張幻燈片。儘管受到關稅的影響,但風電團隊在 2025 年仍出現類似的 EBITDA 虧損,這主要得益於陸上風電價格的改善和渦輪機交付量的增加,但由於 2024 年第三季度沒有記錄到合約取消結算收益,加上同比合約虧損的減少,離岸風電損業務的虧損被抵消。

  • In the fourth quarter, Wind orders increased 53% year-over-year, mainly due to improved onshore equipment orders, primarily outside of North America. However, it's still difficult to call an inflection point in US orders as customers still face permitting delays and tariff uncertainty. At offshore, we remain focused on executing our challenged backlog.

    第四季度,風電訂單年增 53%,主要原因是陸上設備訂單改善,尤其是在北美以外的地區。然而,由於客戶仍面臨許可延誤和關稅不確定性,因此很難斷定美國訂單出現了轉折點。在離岸業務方面,我們仍然專注於完成積壓的棘手訂單。

  • Wind revenue decreased 25% in the quarter given lower onshore equipment deliveries as a result of softening orders over the last year. Wind EBITDA losses were $225 million in the quarter, below the fourth quarter of 2024 levels due to higher offshore contract losses, including the impact of the recently issued US order to halt construction of all offshore projects and lower onshore equipment volume, partially offset by improved onshore services.

    由於過去一年訂單疲軟,陸上設備交付量減少,導致本季風電收入下降了 25%。本季風電 EBITDA 虧損 2.25 億美元,低於 2024 年第四季的水平,原因是海上合約虧損增加,包括最近美國下令停止所有海上項目建設的影響,以及陸上設備數量減少,但陸上服務的改善部分抵消了這些虧損。

  • For the year, Wind losses came in at approximately $600 million, higher than our expectations of approximately $400 million outlined during our December investor event, driven by the US government's December 22 stop work order for offshore wind projects.

    今年,風電業務的損失約為 6 億美元,高於我們在 12 月投資者活動中預計的約 4 億美元,這主要是由於美國政府在 12 月 22 日發布了離岸風電項目停工令。

  • Until that point, the team was on the path to achieve these expectations as they worked to complete the Vineyard Wind project in early January. The order created a potential delay of at least 90 days and we accrued in 4Q the estimated incremental contract losses for the extension of installation work.

    在此之前,該團隊一直朝著實現這些預期目標穩步前進,並在 1 月初完成了 Vineyard Wind 專案。該訂單可能造成至少 90 天的延誤,我們在第四季度提列了因延長安裝工作而預計的額外合約損失。

  • As a reminder, the project has 62 turbines in total, and we've made significant progress with only 10 turbines needing blades and 1 turbine left to be installed at the time of the stop work order. At any time the order is in place, we are unable to execute the project. This and the resulting incremental costs are excused under a declaration of force majeure prompted by the government action.

    提醒一下,該專案共有 62 台渦輪機,在停工令下達時,我們已經取得了重大進展,只剩下 10 台渦輪機需要安裝葉片,還有 1 台渦輪機尚未安裝。只要訂單有效,我們就無法執行該項目。由於政府行為引發的不可抗力聲明,這筆費用及由此產生的額外費用均可免除。

  • We understand that Vineyard Wind received an injunction of the stop work order yesterday. If given permission to resume work soon, we would work to complete installation of the remaining turbines by the end of March. At the end of March, we'll lose access to the vessel required to complete insulation of the remaining turbines.

    我們了解到,Vineyard Wind公司昨天獲得了停止施工令的禁令。如果獲準盡快復工,我們將努力在三月底前完成剩餘渦輪機的安裝。3月底,我們將無法使用完成剩餘渦輪機隔熱工作所需的船隻。

  • If we're unable to complete the installation of the remaining 11 turbines, 2026 Wind revenue could be negatively impacted by approximately $250 million due to our inability to bill the customer for those turbines. Because of our contract loss accruals and protection from incremental costs resulting from the stop work order, we do not anticipate significant additional negative EBITDA impacts for the Vineyard Wind project beyond the amounts already recorded.

    如果我們無法完成剩餘 11 台渦輪機的安裝,由於我們無法向客戶收取這些渦輪機的費用,2026 年風能收入可能會受到約 2.5 億美元的負面影響。由於我們已提列合約損失準備金,並採取措施防止因停工令而產生的額外成本,我們預計 Vineyard Wind 專案不會對 EBITDA 造成除已記錄金額之外的重大額外負面影響。

  • For first quarter 2026, we anticipate Wind revenue to decline at high teens rate year-over-year due to lower onshore equipment deliveries. We expect EBITDA losses to be between $300 million and $400 million, down year-over-year primarily as a result of lower onshore equipment volume as well as the approximately $70 million impact of tariffs that started in 2Q of last year.

    由於陸上設備交付量減少,我們預計 2026 年第一季風電收入將年減 10% 以上。我們預計 EBITDA 虧損將在 3 億美元至 4 億美元之間,年減,主要原因是陸上設備銷售下降,以及去年第二季開始徵收的關稅帶來的約 7,000 萬美元的影響。

  • Looking at 2026, we expect significant improvement in Wind revenue in the second half of the year given only 30% of our expected onshore turbine shipments are in the first half as almost 70% of our 2025 equipment orders came later in the year.

    展望 2026 年,我們預計下半年風電收入將大幅改善,因為我們預計的陸上渦輪機出貨量只有 30% 是在上半年,而我們 2025 年近 70% 的設備訂單都是在下半年下的。

  • Also, the volume we're shipping in the first half has fewer contractual protections for tariffs since we signed these orders before their implementation. As a result, we expect EBITDA losses in the first half to be partially offset by profitability in the second half.

    此外,由於我們在關稅生效前就簽署了這些訂單,因此上半年我們發貨的貨物在關稅方面的合約保護較少。因此,我們預計上半年的 EBITDA 虧損將被下半年的獲利部分抵銷。

  • Now turning to Electrification on Slide 9. Strong demand and price resulted in 21% orders growth and 26% revenue growth in 2025. Electrification equipment orders continued outpacing revenue, further increasing the equipment backlog to $31 billion, up more than $10 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. EBITDA margins expanded 560 basis points to 14.9% driven by volume, favorable price and productivity.

    現在來看第 9 張投影片,內容是電氣化。強勁的需求和價格使得2025年訂單量成長21%,營收成長26%。電氣化設備訂單持續超過收入,進一步增加了設備積壓訂單,達到 310 億美元,比 2024 年第四季增加了 100 多億美元。受銷售量、有利的價格和生產效率的推動,EBITDA 利潤率成長 560 個基點至 14.9%。

  • In the fourth quarter, orders remained strong at roughly 2.5x revenue and increased 50% year-over-year to approximately $7.4 billion due to growing grid equipment demand, particularly for synchronous condensers, substations partially to support data center growth and switchgear. We saw strong equipment orders growth in the Middle East, which increased over $1 billion, and in North America, which more than doubled year-over-year.

    第四季度,訂單量保持強勁,約為營收的 2.5 倍,年增 50%,達到約 74 億美元,這主要得益於電網設備需求的成長,特別是同步調相機、變電站(部分是為了支持資料中心的成長)和開關設備。我們看到中東地區的設備訂單強勁成長,成長超過 10 億美元;北美地區的設備訂單年增超過一倍。

  • Revenue increased 32% with growth across all regions. We saw strong volume and higher price driven by switchgear and HVDC equipment. EBITDA increased 63% in the quarter with margin expansion of 320 basis points to 17.1%. Margin expansion was led by more profitable volume, productivity and favorable pricing.

    所有地區營收均成長,營收成長32%。開關設備和高壓直流輸電設備推動了銷售強勁成長和價格上漲。本季 EBITDA 成長 63%,利潤率擴大 320 個基點至 17.1%。利潤率的提升得益於更高的獲利能力、更高的生產效率和更有利的價格。

  • Looking to the first quarter of 2026, we anticipate continued solid equipment orders with healthy margins. First quarter Electrification revenues should be similar to the fourth quarter of 2025 as we include Prolec GE, resulting in a significant year-over-year increase. We expect continued strong EBITDA margin expansion to 16% to 17% from volume, price and productivity.

    展望 2026 年第一季度,我們預期設備訂單將持續維持穩健成長,利潤率也將維持健康水準。第一季電氣化收入應與 2025 年第四季類似,因為我們將 Prolec GE 也納入其中,這將導致同比大幅增長。我們預計,在銷售、價格和生產效率的推動下,EBITDA利潤率將持續強勁成長至16%至17%。

  • Moving to slide 10 to discuss GE Vernova guidance. For the first quarter of 2026, based on our expectations for the segments, as already outlined, we expect continued year-over-year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. We also expect to deliver positive free cash flow in the first quarter of 2026 given our ongoing focus on aligning the timing of inflows and outflows along with the impact of down payments, which correlate with the timing of orders.

    接下來轉到第 10 張投影片,討論 GE Vernova 的指導意見。根據我們對各業務部門的預期(如前所述),我們預計 2026 年第一季營收將持續年成長,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率也將擴大。鑑於我們持續專注於協調資金流入和流出的時間以及首付款的影響(這與訂單時間相關),我們預計在 2026 年第一季將實現正的自由現金流。

  • For the full year, we're increasing our 2026 guidance provided in December to now include the Prolec GE acquisition. We now expect full year 2026 revenue to be in the range of $44 million to $45 billion, up from $41 billion to $42 billion, with growth in both services and equipment. We continue to expect adjusted EBITDA margins of 11% to 13% as we deliver our growing backlog with favorable pricing plus improved operational execution. We're also increasing our free cash flow guidance to between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, up from $4.5 billion to $5 billion.

    對於全年業績,我們將上調 2026 年 12 月發布的業績指引,現在已將 Prolec GE 的收購納入其中。我們現在預計 2026 年全年營收將在 4,400 萬美元至 450 億美元之間,高於先前預期的 410 億美元至 420 億美元,服務和設備業務均將實現成長。我們預計,隨著我們以優惠的價格交付不斷增長的積壓訂單,以及營運執行的改進,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將繼續保持在 11% 至 13% 之間。我們也將自由現金流預期從 45 億至 50 億美元上調至 50 億至 55 億美元。

  • By segment, we continue to expect 16% to 18% of organic revenue growth in Power, driven by gas power. We anticipate Power EBITDA margins to be between 16% and 18% as positive price, increased volume leverage and productivity more than offset inflationary impacts and the additional expenses for AI, automation and increased production.

    以業務板塊來看,我們仍預期電力業務的有機收入成長將達到 16% 至 18%,主要由天然氣發電驅動。我們預計電力業務的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 16% 至 18% 之間,因為價格上漲、銷售成長和生產力提高將超過通貨膨脹的影響以及人工智慧、自動化和提高產量帶來的額外支出。

  • In Electrification, we now anticipate revenue to be between $13.5 billion and $14 billion, which represents 20% organic growth, plus approximately $3 billion of revenue from Prolec GE. We continue to expect EBITDA margin to expand to 17% to 19% as we deliver our more profitable backlog.

    在電氣化領域,我們現在預計營收將在 135 億美元至 140 億美元之間,這代表 20% 的內生成長,加上 Prolec GE 帶來的約 30 億美元的收入。我們預計,隨著利潤更高的積壓訂單的交付,EBITDA 利潤率將繼續擴大至 17% 至 19%。

  • In Wind, organic revenue is expected to be down low double digits due to decreased onshore equipment revenues given the softness in orders, but we expect EBITDA losses to be approximately $400 million in 2026, which is consistent with our expectations discussed in December as improvement in onshore wind services and offshore wind offset the lower onshore equipment volume.

    由於訂單疲軟,陸上設備收入下降,預計風電業務的有機收入將出現兩位數的下滑,但我們預計 2026 年 EBITDA 虧損約為 4 億美元,這與我們 12 月份討論的預期一致,因為陸上風電服務和海上風電的改善抵消了陸上設備銷量的下降。

  • We expect 2026 GEV adjusted EBITDA to be more second half weighted than 2025, with the highest revenue and EBITDA in the fourth quarter of '26. We expect higher second half gas power revenue as we ship more gas turbines in the second half of the year as we increase annual production capacity to approximately 20 gigawatts starting in midyear '26.

    我們預計 2026 年 GEV 調整後的 EBITDA 將比 2025 年下半年的權重更高,2026 年第四季的營收和 EBITDA 將達到最高水準。我們預計下半年燃氣發電收入將有所提高,因為我們將在下半年交付更多燃氣渦輪機,同時從 2026 年年中開始將年產能提高到約 20 吉瓦。

  • We also anticipate typical gas services seasonality, with the highest outage volume in the fourth quarter. We continue to expect Electrification EBITDA to increase sequentially through the year following the completion of the Prolec GE acquisition. And as mentioned earlier in Wind, we expect higher second half onshore turbine shipments given our recent orders profile and better services profitability.

    我們也預期天然氣服務會出現典型的季節性波動,第四季停氣量最大。我們繼續預期,在完成對 Prolec GE 的收購後,電氣化 EBITDA 將在本年度內逐週成長。如前文「風能」部分所述,鑑於我們近期的訂單情況和更好的服務獲利能力,我們預計下半年陸上渦輪機出貨量將增加。

  • At Corporate, costs are typically uneven across quarters due to compensation timing and portfolio activity at our financial services business. We expect full year 2026 corporate costs to be between $450 million and $500 million as we continue investing in AI, robotics and automation to drive productivity over the medium and long term.

    公司層面,由於薪資發放時間和金融服務業務的投資組合活動,各季度的成本通常不均衡。我們預計 2026 年全年企業成本將在 4.5 億美元至 5 億美元之間,因為我們將繼續投資人工智慧、機器人和自動化,以在中長期提高生產力。

  • Turning to slide 11. We're also increasing our by 2028 outlook to include Prolec GE. We now project at least $56 billion of total revenue by 2028, up from $52 billion, implying a low teens growth CAGR through 2028. And we still expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA margins of 20%.

    翻到第11張幻燈片。我們也將 Prolec GE 納入 2028 年的展望範圍。我們現在預計到 2028 年總收入至少​​為 560 億美元,高於先前的 520 億美元,這意味著到 2028 年複合年增長率將保持在 10% 左右。我們仍預計調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將達到 20%。

  • We're increasing our cumulative GE Vernova free cash flow generation from '25 to '28 by approximately $2 billion to at least $24 billion, which incorporates nearly $1 billion of incremental CapEx from Prolec GE to support increased transformer production. This brings our expected cumulative CapEx and R&D investments through this period to approximately $11 billion.

    我們將 2025 年至 2028 年 GE Vernova 的累積自由現金流增加約 20 億美元,達到至少 240 億美元,其中包括 Prolec GE 為支援變壓器產量增加而增加的近 10 億美元增量資本支出。這將使我們在此期間的累計資本支出和研發投資預計達到約 110 億美元。

  • At Electrification, by incorporating Prolec GE into our by '28 outlook, we now expect approximately $4 billion of incremental revenue on top of high teens organic growth. And we maintain expectations for 22% EBITDA margins. We're not including any synergies from the Prolec acquisition into our updated outlook, but we see real opportunities in both revenues as well as costs.

    在電氣化方面,透過將 Prolec GE 納入我們 2028 年的展望,我們現在預計在接近 100% 的有機成長基礎上,將新增約 40 億美元的收入。我們維持對 22% EBITDA 利潤率的預期。我們在更新後的展望中沒有考慮收購 Prolec 帶來的協同效應,但我們看到了收入和成本的真正機會。

  • Overall, the combination of rising demand, combined with the consistently stronger execution, investments into our business and the acquisition of Prolec GE sets us up nicely going forward.

    總的來說,不斷增長的需求,加上持續增強的執行力、對業務的投資以及對 Prolec GE 的收購,使我們未來發展前景良好。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Scott.

    這樣,我就把麥克風交還給史考特了。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ken. And to wrap, a few themes. We are executing well in the early stages of our multiyear growth trajectory. This is evidenced in the $150 billion backlog we entered '26 with versus roughly $100 billion in backlog that we entered '22 with after the announcement of our spin from GE in November of '21. Just think about that for a moment.

    謝謝你,肯。最後,總結幾個主題。我們在多年增長計劃的初期階段執行良好。這一點可以從我們進入 2026 年時擁有的 1500 億美元積壓訂單得到證明,而我們在 2021 年 11 月宣布從通用電氣分拆出來後,進入 2022 年時擁有的大約 1000 億美元積壓訂單。請仔細想想。

  • Just over four years ago, we announced our separation from GE. And today, our backlog is 50% larger than it was upon the time of the spin announcement.

    四年多前,我們宣布與通用電氣分拆。如今,我們的積壓訂單比數拆公告發佈時增加了 50%。

  • The steepness of our growth trajectory is probably best evidenced in our Electrification segment, which I often say has been the largest beneficiary of GEV working as one, purpose-built, focused company, now better linking the commercial muscle and customer relationships of our Power and Wind businesses with the Electrification solutions we provide.

    我們成長軌蹟的陡峭程度可能在我們的電氣化部門體現得最為明顯,我經常說,電氣化部門是 GEV 作為一家目標明確、專注的公司運作的最大受益者,現在它更好地將我們電力和風能業務的商業實力和客戶關係與我們提供的電氣化解決方案聯繫起來。

  • Electrification generated about $5 billion in revenue in '22, and we now expect that number to be $13.5 billion to $14 billion in '26, and we are just getting started.

    2022 年電氣化創造了約 50 億美元的收入,我們現在預計到 2026 年這一數字將達到 135 億至 140 億美元,而這只是個開始。

  • But this isn't about growth for growth's sake. In the last 3 years alone, we've more than doubled our GEV equipment backlog, adding over $14 billion in future margin dollars in this backlog, while adding $13 billion in high-margin services backlog over the same period.

    但這並非為了成長而成長。僅在過去 3 年裡,我們的 GEV 設備積壓訂單就增加了一倍多,為該積壓訂單帶來了超過 140 億美元的未來利潤,同時在同一時期,高利潤服務積壓訂單也增加了 130 億美元。

  • On the operations front, we are improving but culturally hunting every day for waste and opportunities to serve our customers in a more efficient manner. Take our transformer product line inside Electrification. Our labor hours were up 39% in 4Q, with output increasing more than 50% year-over-year as we drive significant productivity at these sites. And we now see real opportunity to apply a similar playbook to the 5 large factories we are acquiring with Prolec GE.

    在營運方面,我們正在不斷改進,但同時也在文化上努力尋找浪費和機會,以便以更有效率的方式服務我們的客戶。以我們的變壓器產品線為例,探討電氣化問題。第四季度,我們的勞動時間成長了 39%,產量年增超過 50%,這得益於我們在這些工廠顯著提高了生產效率。現在我們看到了一個真正的機會,可以將類似的策略應用到我們正在與 Prolec GE 一起收購的 5 家大型工廠中。

  • In onshore wind, our critical, customer-facing events are down over 50% in '25 versus '24, and the business is well positioned to deliver a much more profitable services business in '26. But we also are running a business with the humility to acknowledge we continue to have real opportunity to improve on our execution in areas like offshore wind as we complete our only two projects.

    在陸上風電領域,我們面向客戶的關鍵事件在 2025 年比 2024 年減少了 50% 以上,公司已做好充分準備,在 2026 年提供更有利可圖的服務業務。但我們也秉持謙遜的態度經營業務,承認我們在離​​岸風電等領域仍有很大的提升空間,因為我們目前只有兩個項目。

  • We are doing all of this while investing across the near, mid and long-term horizons. Our customers and investors will see substantial value creation from our increased gas turbine output starting in 3Q '26. These incremental returns are right in front of us, less than 180 days from now.

    我們在進行所有這些投資的同時,也兼顧了近期、中期和長期投資。從 2026 年第三季開始,我們的客戶和投資者將因燃氣渦輪機產量的增加而獲得巨大的價值創造。這些增量收益就在眼前,不到 180 天就能實現。

  • Other investments we are making are just starting to take shape, but I have high confidence that our automation and AI investment returns will grow in '27, becoming a bigger part of our margin expansion in '28. These investment returns are not included in our '28 financial outlook today.

    我們正在進行的其他投資才剛開始成形,但我非常有信心,我們在自動化和人工智慧方面的投資回報將在 2027 年增長,並在 2028 年成為我們利潤率擴張的更大組成部分。這些投資回報並未納入我們今天的「2028年財務展望」。

  • And as we invest in these time horizons, we also are investing in businesses for the next decade. We expect SMR to contribute meaningfully to the top line of our power business in the next decade. We're making real products in construction of our first plant in Ontario today while continuing to invest in the engineering to drive down the cost of the product for the long term. Nuclear was a drag on Power's '25 margins, and we expect '26 to be directionally similar. But our customers and investors will see this value in the next decade.

    隨著我們進行這些時間跨度的投資,我們也正在投資未來十年的企業。我們預計,在未來十年內,小型模組化反應器(SMR)將對我們的電力業務營收做出重大貢獻。今天,我們在安大略省的第一家工廠正在建設中,生產真正的產品,同時我們也不斷投資工程技術,以從長遠角度降低產品成本。核能拖累了 Power 公司 2025 年的利潤率,我們預期 2026 年的情況也大致相同。但我們的客戶和投資者將在未來十年看到這種價值。

  • Similar theme with our solid-state transformer product line. We've completed production of our first unit. And just 2 weeks ago, I visited our new testing facility in Upstate New York that we'll be using to test and validate the performance of this first unit before delivering the completed solution to our hyperscaler customer in the autumn of this year.

    我們的固態變壓器產品線也遵循類似的概念。我們已經完成了第一台設備的生產。就在兩週前,我參觀了我們在紐約州北部的新測試設施,我們將使用該設施測試和驗證第一台設備的性能,然後在今年秋季將完整的解決方案交付給我們的超大規模客戶。

  • And we can do all of this while returning substantial capital to our shareholders as evidenced in our $3.6 billion return of capital in '25 and our announced increase in our dividend and share buyback program. So we enter '26 pumped up about the company we are creating, the opportunities to serve our customers and deliver returns for our owners, not only in '26 but through cycles and for the long term.

    而且,我們還能在向股東返還大量資本的同時做到這一切,這體現在我們2025年返還的36億美元資本以及我們宣布的增加股息和股票回購計劃中。因此,我們帶著滿腔熱情進入 2026 年,對我們正在創建的公司、為我們的客戶服務以及為我們的所有者帶來回報的機會,不僅在 2026 年,而且在未來的周期中以及長期內。

  • With that, I'll hand it to Michael for the Q&A part of the call.

    接下來,我將把電話交給邁克爾,由他來回答問題的的提問。

  • Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Please return to the queue if you have follow-ups. Operator, please open the line.

    在開放提問通道之前,我想請排隊的各位分析師考慮一下其他分析師的感受,並只提一個問題,以便我們能夠盡可能地幫助到其他人。如果您還有後續問題,請返回佇列。接線員,請接通線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

    (操作說明)喬·里奇,高盛。

  • Joe Ritchie - Analyst

    Joe Ritchie - Analyst

  • So let's just -- I'm just going to focus my one question on gas power equipment orders. Clearly, incredible momentum in 2025. I think your original expectation was for backlog and for SRAs to be roughly around 60 gigawatts, and you ended at 83. Now you have an expectation of 100 gigawatts by the end of 2026.

    那麼,我就只問一個關於瓦斯動力設備訂單的問題吧。顯然,2025年將迎來強勁的發展動能。我認為你最初的預期是積壓訂單和 SRA 大約在 60 吉瓦左右,而最終結果是 83 吉瓦。現在預計到 2026 年底將達到 100 吉瓦。

  • Scott, maybe just talk about just the nature of your discussions. Have they changed at all? Types of customers? And then also, you did mention that you expected the margin in your backlog to be better as well. So it sounds like the pricing discussions have also been positive.

    史考特,或許你可以談談你們討論的性質。他們有任何改變嗎?顧客類型有哪些?另外,您也提到過,您預計積壓訂單的利潤率會更好。看來定價方面的討論也進展順利。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Joe. I mean, on the end of that, I'd say, yeah, pricing does continue to strengthen. When we look at where we're trending with our slot reservation agreements today versus our existing backlog, there's another 10 to 20 points of pricing strength in the SRAs today.

    是的,喬。我的意思是,總而言之,我認為價格確實會繼續走強。當我們觀察目前艙位預訂協議的趨勢與現有積壓訂單相比,就會發現目前艙位預訂協議的價格還有 10 到 20 個點的上漲空間。

  • We are pleased -- you're right, we were talking in the middle of last year at 60 gigawatts and landed at 83, because the intensity of the discussions really late summer fall right through the holidays have continued to be very intense.

    我們很高興——你說得對,去年年中我們討論的是 60 吉瓦,最終定為 83 吉瓦,因為從夏末秋初到假期,討論的激烈程度一直持續不斷。

  • When you think about this year getting to 100 gigawatts by the end of the year, what I would tell you is it's likely going to be a larger proportion of orders. Today, with the 83 gigawatts, it's 40 gigawatts of orders, 43 gigawatts of SRAs, that probably shifts towards more of a 60-40 split with 60% on order over the course of 2026.

    當你想到今年年底前要達到 100 吉瓦的目標時,我想告訴你的是,這很可能是訂單中更大比例的部分。目前,83 吉瓦的裝置容量中,40 吉瓦為訂單,43 吉瓦為 SRA(短期招標),到 2026 年,這一比例可能會轉變為 60-40,其中 60% 為訂單。

  • And then really the question that we'll have to evaluate and share with you as we go is how many customers are ready to commit to slots today for really '31 to '35. And our 100-gigawatt assumption that we talked about today doesn't really assume a lot of those, let's call it, framework agreements get closed in 2026.

    接下來,我們需要評估並與您分享的問題是,究竟有多少客戶願意在今天承諾購買 31 到 35 年的老虎機。我們今天討論的 100 吉瓦假設實際上並沒有假設很多所謂的框架協議會在 2026 年達成。

  • But there are active discussions right now, and active discussions we're going to keep working that could take that 60-40 split of 60 gigawatts of orders directionally and 40 gigawatts of SRAs, to see the SRA number grow even higher over the course of this year. But it's January and we want to see how those discussions progress.

    但目前正在進行積極的討論,我們將繼續進行積極的討論,這可能會使 60 吉瓦的訂單和 40 吉瓦的 SRA 的比例達到 60:40,從而使 SRA 的數量在今年內進一步增長。但現在才一月份,我們想看看這些討論會如何進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    朱利安米切爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • Just wanted to circle back to the gas power equipment market because I suppose we get a lot of questions from investors around smaller turbine makers looking to grab share, looking to take advantage of the fact that you're trying to be measured on capacity increases and there are very long lead times. And obviously, there was an announcement of someone looking to repurpose ancient narrow-body engines for power gen supply.

    我只是想再回到燃氣動力設備市場,因為我想我們經常收到投資者關於小型渦輪機製造商的問題,他們希望搶佔市場份額,希望利用產能增長速度快、交貨週期長的特點。顯然,有人宣布正在考慮將古老的窄體引擎重新用於發電。

  • So I just wondered, I suppose, two things. One was how serious do you think the threat of market share gains from that plethora of smaller players is? And do you think that they could have some negative effects on pricing in the equipment market as their capacity and share gain efforts ramp up in the years ahead?

    所以,我當時就想問兩個問題。其中一個問題是:你認為眾多小型企業對市佔率的威脅有多嚴重?您認為隨著他們未來幾年產能和市場份額的提升,他們是否會對設備市場的價格產生一些負面影響?

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Julian. I would just reinforce the comment I made before, which is we do see our slot reservation agreements 10 to 20 points higher in price than where we are of their backlog. So we're continuing to gain price as we continue to play this game in gas.

    謝謝你,朱利安。我只想重申我之前的觀點,那就是我們發現,我們的預訂協議價格比他們目前的積壓訂單價格高出 10 到 20 個百分點。所以,隨著我們繼續在天然氣市場進行這場博弈,價格也持續上漲。

  • Frankly, a lot of the smaller applications are simply enabling more projects to get started, because what it's enabling is earlier power that truthfully we can't provide, but then on the back end, as the heavy-duty gas turbines are available, those smaller applications will become the reliability solution on the back of the -- on the heavy-duty gas turbines.

    坦白說,許多小型應用只是讓更多項目得以啟動,因為它提供了我們目前無法提供的更早的電力,但從長遠來看,隨著重型燃氣渦輪機的出現,這些小型應用將成為重型燃氣渦輪機的可靠性解決方案。

  • So what we talk about every day is this is about economics. And when you're underwriting 20-year business cases, efficiency matters a lot when you're running these units at base load. So now with humility, we don't really view those smaller units to be competition, but that doesn't mean that's not a good business in the near term. I think those smaller applications could do very good business in the next few years.

    所以我們每天談的都是經濟學。在製定 20 年的商業計劃時,當這些設備以基本負載運作時,效率就顯得非常重要。所以現在,我們謙虛地認為,這些規模較小的單位並不構成競爭,但這並不意味著它們在短期內不是一門好的生意。我認為這些小型應用程式在未來幾年可能會有非常好的生意。

  • But we also have just as much conviction in the competitiveness and the value proposition our heavy-duty gas turbines are providing and will continue to provide, and we expect to continue to have the attractive share in the market that we have had and we'll continue to have.

    但我們對重型燃氣渦輪機的競爭力和價值主張也同樣充滿信心,並將繼續保持這一優勢。我們期望繼續擁有過去和現在所擁有的可觀市場份額。

  • Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

    Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

  • And Julian, I know you know this, but we obviously play in a piece of that as well, right? So we have aeroderivative units, and I think last year we booked orders for about 63 of those, which was up significantly year-over-year, because of us playing in that market, it informs those comments that Scott just made, which is we know how the customers are thinking about utilizing that equipment in the midterm.

    朱利安,我知道你也明白這一點,但我們顯然也參與其中,對吧?所以我們擁有航空衍生設備,我認為去年我們接到了大約 63 台此類設備的訂單,這比上一年大幅增長,因為我們參與了該市場,這也印證了 Scott 剛才的評論,即我們知道客戶在中期內是如何考慮使用這些設備的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    Nigel Coe,Wolfe Research。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • So my one question is on the backlog margins, specifically for Power. So 11 points of improvement year-over-year is really impressive. Maybe just can you talk about the 17 points of improvement since year-end '22? The starting point would have been about a breakeven. I just want to confirm that. And then based on where you're pricing turbines today, would you expect backlog margins to continue improving in 2026?

    所以我的問題是關於積壓訂單的利潤率,特別是電力方面的。因此,年比提高11個百分點確實令人印象深刻。您能否談談自 2022 年底以來取得的 17 個百分點的進步?最初的目標應該是收支平衡。我只是想確認一下。那麼,根據您目前的渦輪機定價,您預計 2026 年積壓訂​​單利潤率會繼續提高嗎?

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's fair that, directionally, the starting point is approximately breakeven, and most definitely, we expect the margins in equipment backlog in Power to continue to grow at a very healthy clip in '26. And that's why we articulated on the call that we expect to add at least as much equipment margin in backlog in '26, i.e., at least $8 billion, this year as we did last year.

    從方向來看,起點大致是損益平衡,這是合理的。而且我們非常肯定地預計,2026 年電力設備積壓訂單的利潤率將繼續以非常健康的速度成長。因此,我們在電話會議上明確表示,我們預計 2026 年的設備訂單利潤將至少像去年一樣增加 80 億美元。

  • Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

    Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

  • And we get excited about that not only on the equipment side of it, but if you think about the pricing on the service contract that comes along with a new heavy-duty gas turbine, as the pricing is accelerating on the equipment itself, as we sign those new contracts for service orders, we'll see incremental pricing there.

    我們不僅對設備方面感到興奮,而且如果您考慮一下與新型重型燃氣渦輪機配套的服務合約定價,隨著設備本身價格的加速上漲,當我們簽署這些新的服務訂單合約時,我們將看到服務合約價格的逐步上漲。

  • So your point is exactly right, we're seeing accretion in margins on the equipment. That also leads to a long life of pricing improvement on the service side of the portfolio.

    所以你的觀點完全正確,我們看到設備的利潤率正在提高。這也使得產品組合中服務方面的定價能夠長期維持改善。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Because when you think about it, everybody, we added about $12 billion of equipment backlog in Power. We added $9 billion of services backlog in Power over the course of the year. Both are experiencing real margin accretion.

    因為仔細想想,各位,我們在電力領域增加了約 120 億美元的設備積壓。今年,我們在電力領域新增了價值 90 億美元的服務積壓訂單。兩者的利潤率均實現了實際成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Strouse, JPMorgan.

    馬克‧斯特勞斯,摩根大通。

  • Mark Strouse - Analyst

    Mark Strouse - Analyst

  • Scott, maybe switching gears to the Electrification segment. Just kind of stepping back, kind of leading up to the spin. Just kind of the opportunity that you've been talking about, kind of investing in that business to expand it from what it's been over the last decade or so. Obviously, you're clearly making progress with the orders. You talked about kind of record orders in 4Q.

    史考特,或許會把重心轉移到電氣化領域。就像是後退一步,為旋轉做準備。正如你一直提到的,這是一個投資該業務並將其規模擴大的機會,使其超越過去十年左右的發展水平。顯然,你的訂單處理工作進展順利。你提到第四季訂單量創下紀錄。

  • To the extent that it's possible, can you just kind of update how much of that do you think is really driven by just kind of the overall market strength versus what GE is doing specifically to gain market share?

    如果可能的話,您能否更新一下您認為其中有多少是由整體市場實力驅動的,又有多少是由通用電氣為獲得市場份額而採取的具體措施驅動的?

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I mean, Mark, with humility, I would argue that we're able to provide a very unique solution to the end customers today with the linkage of the power generation and the electrical equipment together in a way that it is difficult for many other providers to do.

    嗯,我的意思是,馬克,恕我直言,我們今天能夠為終端客戶提供非常獨特的解決方案,將發電和電氣設備連接起來,這是許多其他供應商難以做到的。

  • So this isn't simply about drafting on a larger market. I would say that was maybe more of a theme in '23 as the European market started to move post the Ukraine crisis, that supply and demand created an opportunity for us and we took advantage of it. That was a '23 theme.

    所以這不僅是擴大市場規模的問題。我認為這在 2023 年可能是一個更突出的主題,因為在烏克蘭危機之後,歐洲市場開始轉變,供需關係為我們創造了機會,我們抓住了這個機會。那是2023年的主題。

  • '25 theme is we're providing a differentiated solution. And our ability to link power generation solutions with electrical equipment is positioning us to continue to grow this business on an outsized basis. So I look at the business and I say $14 billion of revenue in 2026, directionally, we think our addressable market today with the products we sell, directionally $150 billion. So I mean, we're at like 10% of our directional market and there's a lot we can do.

    '25 的主題是,我們提供差異化的解決方案。我們將發電解決方案與電氣設備結合的能力,使我們能夠繼續大規模發展這項業務。因此,我審視了這項業務,我認為到 2026 年,收入將達到 140 億美元;而我們認為,就我們目前銷售的產品而言,我們可觸及的市場規模約為 1500 億美元。我的意思是,我們目前只佔定向市場份額的 10%,還有很多事情我們可以做。

  • Now yeah, to earn that, we've got to get better with our operations. And that's why we talked about the fact that from '24 to '28, we're doubling our output with transformers and switch gears. And most of that is coming from more shifts, more investments in how we operate that helps in -- at the same time, we talked about things like solid-state transformers in December, I mentioned it in my prepared remarks, two weeks ago, I saw our first product that's completed, we'll be testing it over the course of the summer before we deliver it to the hyperscaler customer, that could be a substantial order for us with a new product line in 2027 for deliveries later in the decade.

    是的,要實現這個目標,我們的營運必須做得更好。所以,我們才談到,從 2024 年到 2028 年,我們將透過變壓器和開關設備將產量增加一倍。其中大部分來自更多的轉變,以及對我們運營方式的更多投資,這有助於——與此同時,我們在 12 月份討論了固態變壓器之類的東西,我在兩週前準備好的發言稿中也提到了這一點,我看到了我們第一個完成的產品,我們將在夏季對其進行測試,然後再交付給超大規模數據中心,這可能會為我們推出一筆可在本

  • So I continue to grow my optimism and, frankly, my expectations with how material this is as a part of GE Vernova. And we're going to keep leaning into this business.

    因此,我對GE Vernova的實質貢獻越來越樂觀,坦白說,我的期望也越來越高。我們將繼續加大對這項業務的投入。

  • Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

    Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

  • And then it's a great opportunity to think about the Prolec acquisition, right? Because you talked about what are we able to do not only just from a market, but from a GEV perspective, bringing things together. This was one of the primary reasons that we were so excited about the Prolec acquisition, because there were terms and conditions around the arrangement which allowed us to keep things within certain markets. Now that it's totally going to be consolidated by GEV and fully owned by GEV, we're able to optimize where we can have transformers go around the world. So that's a really good thing.

    那麼,這豈不是是一個很好的機會來考慮收購 Prolec 嗎?因為你談到了我們不僅從市場角度,而且從全球經濟價值的角度來看,能夠做些什麼,將各種因素結合起來。這正是我們對收購 Prolec 感到如此興奮的主要原因之一,因為該協議中的條款和條件允許我們將業務限制在某些市場內。既然它將完全由 GEV 整合並完全歸 GEV 所有,我們就能優化變壓器在全球的部署位置。所以這真是好事。

  • But one of the other opportunities as well is Prolec is a provider of distribution transformers, which are a key part of what's going into data centers. So this opportunity of bringing GEV together and how it's benefiting the Electrification business runs right exactly to what Scott says, but it gave me the opportunity to remind everybody what the importance of this Prolec acquisition is.

    但另一個機會是,Prolec 是一家配電變壓器供應商,而配電變壓器是資料中心的重要組成部分。所以,將 GEV 整合在一起的機會以及它如何使電氣化業務受益,與 Scott 所說的完全一致,但這給了我一個機會來提醒大家 Prolec 收購的重要性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexander Virgo, Evercore ISI.

    Alexander Virgo,Evercore ISI。

  • Alexander Virgo - Analyst

    Alexander Virgo - Analyst

  • Can we start on Electrification, please? And just integrating Prolec, I'm surprised there hasn't been a little bit more of an accretion on the original margin guidance. So I wondered if you just talk a little bit about costs to integrate an investment that you might need to do to make sure that you get the benefit of what you just talked about and think about how that margin profile might look as we look at the 2028 guidance.

    我們能開始推進電氣化嗎?僅僅整合了 Prolec,我就很驚訝最初的利潤率預期並沒有進一步提高。所以我想知道,您能否稍微談談整合一項投資的成本,您可能需要這樣做才能確保您獲得剛才所談到的好處,並思考一下,當我們展望 2028 年的業績指引時,利潤率狀況可能會如何。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean I'd just start by saying no change from the expectations from Prolec from what we talked about when we closed the deal in October. The reality is we could have a little bit of a debate as to whether we wanted to change the margin guide by basis points to be exact to where we had framed things up in October.

    我的意思是,首先我要說的是,Prolec 的預期與我們在 10 月達成交易時所討論的沒有任何變化。事實上,我們可能會就是否要將利潤率指導方針精確地調整到我們在 10 月制定的水平展開一些辯論。

  • What I would just interpret is this gives us even more opportunity to outperform over the course of '26. I wouldn't overthink that there's been any change in the financial contribution from Prolec in 11 months of, call it, the '26 or, at all, the '28 expectations. Frankly, if anything, we've had a very productive 3 months of integration meetings and are very excited for this to be part of the company on Monday.

    我的理解是,這給了我們更多機會在 2026 年取得優異成績。我不會過度解讀 Prolec 在過去 11 個月(姑且稱之為 2026 年或 2028 年的預期)的財務貢獻發生了任何變化。坦白說,過去三個月的整合會議非常富有成效,我們非常期待它在週一正式成為公司的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

    大衛‧阿卡羅,摩根士丹利。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could touch on the nuclear space. We've seen a lot of momentum on the policy side, deal side and the SMR space. Wondering if you could talk to your project opportunities. Have things accelerated? Could there be opportunities for more SMR deals to come?

    我想請您談談核能領域。我們在政策方面、交易方面以及小型模組化反應器領域都看到了很大的發展勢頭。想問您是否可以談談您的專案機會。事情進展加速了嗎?未來是否還有機會達成更多小型模組化反應器(SMR)專案?

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • David, the opportunity is great. The discussions are progressing. What I would say with nuclear, maybe a little bit different than gas and grid because we're really restarting an industry here in the western world, is they're progressing, they're sequential. There's a lot of terms and conditions that are being discussed. We're working very closely with the US administration that is very determined to restart a nuclear industry in the US, and we're very motivated to serve them on that path.

    大衛,這是個絕佳的機會。討論正在進行中。我想說的是,核能可能與天然氣和電網略有不同,因為我們在西方世界實際上正在重啟一個行業,它們是在進步,是循序漸進的。有很多條款和條件正在討論中。我們正與決心重啟美國核工業的美國政府密切合作,我們也非常有動力為他們在這條道路上提供幫助。

  • We're also having productive conversations in Sweden and Poland today that we're very optimistic about going forward. But it may take a little while before they translate to announcements. So we're into a new year.

    今天我們在瑞典和波蘭也進行了富有成效的對話,我們對未來的進展非常樂觀。但可能需要一段時間才能將其轉化為正式公告。新的一年開始了。

  • We're working hard with a number of both governments and customer archetypes, including the hyperscalers on what this can mean for them in, let's call it, the first half of the next decade. So opportunity pipeline growing, but the timing to close is going to be a little bit different than the intensity of the closed velocity right now with gas and grid.

    我們正在與許多政府機構和客戶群體(包括超大規模資料中心營運商)密切合作,探討這在未來十年的前半段對他們意味著什麼。因此,機會通路正在成長,但成交時間將與目前天然氣和電網的成交速度略有不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

    妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase),德意志銀行。

  • Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

    Nicole DeBlase - Analyst

  • Scott, I wanted to get your thoughts on something a bit higher level. A few weeks ago, we had this announcement from Trump kind of pushing for an emergency power auction. I'm really curious about your reaction to that, both with respect to the potential impact on gas power demand in the market in the US as well as GEV.

    史考特,我想聽聽你對一些更高層次問題的看法。幾週前,川普宣布將推動緊急電力拍賣。我非常好奇您對此有何反應,包括對美國市場天然氣發電需求以及天然氣電動車的潛在影響。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • There's clearly a need to continue to evolve the market mechanisms to encourage what's needed in this country, which is substantially more new build of firm, fixed power generation capacity. Whether that happens through the auction mechanism a few weeks ago announced by the administration allowing hyperscalers to bid into a separate auction for separate PPAs, that's one pathway to do it. Do we probably need in a number of markets a capacity auction mechanism that provides more years of revenue guarantee for more build to happen today? Definitely.

    顯然,我們需要繼續改善市場機制,以鼓勵該國所需的建設,即大幅增加穩定的固定發電容量。無論是透過幾週前政府宣布的拍賣機制(允許超大規模企業參與單獨的購電協議拍賣),還是透過其他途徑,這都是實現這一目標的一種方式。我們是否可能需要在一些市場引入容量拍賣機制,為更多年的收入保障提供條件,從而促使更多項目在今天啟動?確實。

  • The market's already moving, right? We moved into '25 with 46 gigawatts on contract. We ended the year with 83. We'll end this year with at least 100. So the market is moving regardless, but we are very motivated by continuing to iterate with the administration on how to enable even faster growth and simultaneously thinking our way through on how we'll fulfill if that happens.

    市場已經開始波動了,對吧?2025 年,我們簽訂了 46 吉瓦的合約。我們以 83 的成績結束了這一年。今年年底我們至少要達到100個。所以市場無論如何都在發展,但我們仍然充滿動力地繼續與政府反覆討論如何實現更快的成長,同時也在思考如果這種情況發生,我們將如何實現目標。

  • So motivated by the announcement a few weeks ago. But I'd also emphasize it's early. I think changing policy in how these markets have worked isn't going to happen overnight. But clearly, you can see in our orders book that the market continues to move our way regardless.

    幾週前發布的消息讓我深受鼓舞。但我還要強調,現在還為時過早。我認為改變這些市場運作方式的政策不會在一夜之間發生。但很明顯,從我們的訂單簿可以看出,市場仍然朝著我們有利的方向發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

    阿米特·梅赫羅特拉,瑞銀集團。

  • Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

    Amit Mehrotra - Equity Analyst

  • Just one clarifying question. Can you just update us on what you're sold out through -- I think last time it was 2028 on both heavy-duty and aeroderivatives. I mean these backlog members are eye-popping, so I assume we're going out quite further.

    還有一個問題需要澄清。可否告知我們哪些產品已售罄?我記得上次重型飛機和航空衍生飛機的售罄日期都是 2028 年。我的意思是,這些積壓成員的數量令人瞠目結舌,所以我認為我們還要進一步擴大範圍。

  • And then just one clarification on Electrification. I know you talked about it earlier, but it just seems like the organic growth expectations have maybe come down for '26 when you include Prolec in there relative to the 20% you had last year. Maybe I did my math wrong, but if you could just clarify that point, that would be helpful.

    最後,關於電氣化還有一點需要澄清。我知道你之前也談過,但如果把 Prolec 也算進去,那麼 2026 年的有機成長預期似乎比去年的 20% 有所下降。也許我的計算有誤,但如果您能澄清一下這一點,那就太好了。

  • Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

    Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

  • Let me do the last part first and then I'll hand it back to Scott. No, the organic growth expectations haven't come down. When we give you the organic growth number we're giving it to you without Prolec. So just to make that easy, we're saying the organic growth for Electrification and then just add the $3 billion on top of it. So there's been no change in the expectations for Electrification negatively.

    讓我先完成最後一部分,然後再交給史考特。不,有機成長預期並沒有降低。當我們向您提供有機成長率數據時,我們指的是不包含 Prolec 數據的數據。為了方便理解,我們假設電氣化實現了自然成長,然後在此基礎上再加上 30 億美元。因此,人們對電氣化的預期並沒有負面變化。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And they've demonstrated ability to outperform the last few years with their ramp. Let's see how they do this year. But yeah, no change, Amit, from December 9.

    而且他們的成長動能也證明了他們有能力超越過去幾年的表現。讓我們看看他們今年的表現如何。是的,Amit,12月9日以來沒有任何變化。

  • The gas capacity, the reality is the 83 gigawatts that we now have on capacity is certainly very heavily playing into '29, but there are slots in '30 and beyond that are also secured. So we do continue to have capacity available today at 83 gigawatts on contracts for 2029.

    天然氣產能,現實情況是,我們現在擁有的 83 吉瓦產能肯定會對 2029 年產生非常大的影響,但 2030 年及以後也有一些名額已經得到保障。因此,我們目前仍有 83 吉瓦的產能可用於 2029 年的合約專案。

  • That said, by the time we get to 100 gigawatts, which we're now projecting by the end of the year, that 100 gigawatts directionally will have both '29 and '30 largely sold out based on where we see it today. But sitting here today on January 28, there are still slots available for 2029.

    也就是說,到我們達到 100 吉瓦時(我們目前預計到今年年底就能達到),根據我們目前的觀察,這 100 吉瓦的裝置容量在 2029 年和 2030 年基本上都會售罄。但截至 1 月 28 日,2029 年仍有空位。

  • Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Operator, we have time for one more question, please.

    接線員,我們還有時間再問一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

    安德魯‧卡普洛維茨,花旗集團。

  • Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

    Andrew Kaplowitz - Analyst

  • Scott, can you give us more color on your assessment of how your teams are doing on that variable cost productivity that you talked about and what that might mean for the next couple of years? Obviously, you've reiterated this 22% EBITDA margin targets for '28 in Power and Electrification, still early days on Wind. What are you seeing on the ground as you begin to ramp up capacity more significantly? And can you remind us how your contracts are structured for rising commodity costs?

    史考特,你能否更詳細地介紹一下你對團隊在變動成本生產力方面的評估,以及這對未來幾年可能意味著什麼?顯然,您重申了2028年電力和電氣化領域22%的EBITDA利潤率目標,而風能領域仍處於早期階段。隨著產能大幅提升,您在實際操作中觀察到了哪些情況?能否提醒我們一下,你們的合約是如何應對大宗商品價格上漲的?

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, the commodity cost, to a large extent, I would say from when we take orders, Andrew, to a large extent, we lock in with the suppliers the price. So it's generally matched. The only exception of that is with our long-term service contracts, and those have material escalators attach with them. So on our $150 billion backlog, we feel very good about our protection for material inflation.

    嗯,商品成本在很大程度上取決於我們何時接到訂單,安德魯,在很大程度上,我們與供應商鎖定了價格。所以整體上是匹配的。唯一的例外是我們的長期服務合同,這些合約都附帶實質性的升級條款。因此,對於我們1500億美元的積壓訂單,我們對抵禦通貨膨脹的能力感到非常滿意。

  • Now on our variable productivity journey and where we are, it's a very good and timely question. We'll have our February operating reviews with our business teams next week, and that is the main event or one of our main events.

    現在,就我們目前所處的可變生產力發展階段而言,這是一個非常好且及時的問題。下週我們將與業務團隊進行二月份的營運審查,這是我們最重要的活動之一。

  • If I assess where we are right now, I would say with the backlog that's grown by 50% in the last four years, the team has been making very good progress in our ability to fulfill on that. And that's when we talk about seeing the gas ramp up in the third quarter of '28 -- third quarter '26, excuse me, we'll hit that. Doubling transformers and switch gears '24 to '28, we'll hit that.

    如果讓我評估我們目前的狀況,我會說,儘管過去四年積壓的工作增加了 50%,但團隊在完成這些工作方面已經取得了非常好的進展。那時我們預計天然氣產量將在 2028 年第三季大幅提升——抱歉,應該是 2026 年第三季度,我們會達到那個數字。2024 年至 2028 年間,變壓器和開關設備的數量翻了一番,我們就能實現這個目標。

  • Now can we be even more effective with our sourcing leverage here now that we're at this level of scale and do I have a high degree of expectations that the sourcing productivity will contribute even more to our margin expansion, when we show you that chart that we showed you today on backlog in March 12 months from now?

    現在我們已經達到了這樣的規模,我們能否更有效地利用採購優勢?我是否對採購效率的提升抱有很高的期望,希望它能進一步促進我們利潤率的提升?例如,當我們向你們展示今天展示的關於 12 個月後 3 月積壓訂單的圖表時,就能看到這一點。

  • The answer is yeah. But there's a maturation process here between investments in the factories for output and fulfillment, feeling very good, somewhat countered with how strategically forward thinking our teams are with sourcing savings that I think we've got a few miles still to go together. That is good news in the sense that it's opportunity, an opportunity for us to get better and something I look forward to updating everyone on as we go through that journey together in 2026.

    答案是肯定的。但從工廠生產到交付,這其中存在一個成熟過程,雖然感覺很好,但我們的團隊在採購節約方面的戰略前瞻性思維在某種程度上抵消了這一點,我認為我們還有很長的路要走。從某種意義上說,這是個好消息,因為這是一個機會,一個讓我們變得更好的機會,我期待在 2026 年與大家一起經歷這段旅程時,向大家匯報最新進展。

  • Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Michael Lapides - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Before we wrap up, let me turn it back to Scott for closing comments.

    在結束之前,我把麥克風交還給史考特,讓他做最後的總結發言。

  • Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Strazik - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Michael, thank you, everybody. I would just again with our customers. We are humbled with their confidence in us to drive that $150 billion backlog to the 75,000 employees we have today that I'm proud to represent every day, as is Ken, in these meetings.

    邁克爾,謝謝大家。我還會再次為我們的客戶服務。我們對他們的信任深感榮幸,相信我們能夠將1500億美元的積壓訂單交付給今天我們擁有的75000名員工,我和肯一樣,每天都為能代表他們而感到自豪。

  • For everybody on the call, we appreciate your continued interest in GE Vernova. And I hope you can hear in our voices, both the combination of humility and hunger that we have as we go into a new year that there's a lot of work to do. We're ready to do that work. And we look forward to interacting with all of you throughout 2026. Thanks, everyone.

    感謝所有參加電話會議的各位,感謝你們一直以來對GE Vernova的關注。我希望你們能從我們的聲音中聽出,在新的一年裡,我們既謙遜又充滿渴望,因為我們知道還有很多工作要做。我們已準備好進行這項工作。我們期待在2026年與大家互動交流。謝謝大家。

  • Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

    Kenneth Parks - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect

    謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。