Greif Inc (GEF) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Greif second quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

各位好，感謝您撥冗等候。歡迎參加 Greif 2026 會計年度第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Bill D'Onofrio, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者：投資人關係與企業發展副總裁 Bill D'Onofrio。請開始。

Good morning and thank you for joining Greif's Fiscal second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Today, our CEO, Ole Rosgaard, will provide a strategy and market update, followed by our CFO, Larry Hilsheimer, with a review of our financial results and guidance.

各位早安，感謝您參加 Greif 2026 會計年度第二季財報電話會議。今天，我們的執行長 Ole Rosgaard 將提供策略與市場最新進展，接著由財務長 Larry Hilsheimer 回顧我們的財務結果與財測指引。

Please turn to slide 2. In accordance with Regulation Fair Disclosure, please ask questions regarding topics you consider important because we are prohibited from discussing material non-public information with you on an individual basis.

請翻到第 2 張投影片。依據公平揭露規範（Regulation Fair Disclosure），請就您認為重要的主題提出問題，因為我們被禁止以個別方式與您討論重大未公開資訊。

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements involving plans, expectations, and beliefs related to future events. Actual results could differ materially from those discussed. Additionally, we will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures and the reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP metrics that can be found in the appendix of today's presentation.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述，涉及與未來事件相關的計畫、預期與信念。實際結果可能與所討論內容有重大差異。此外，我們將引用若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標；其與最直接可比較之 GAAP 指標的調節表可於今日簡報的附錄中找到。

I'll now turn the call over to Ole on slide 3.

現在我將在第 3 張投影片把電話會議交給 Ole。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We continued to execute against our strategy during the second quarter with a particular focus on productivity and cost optimization, which remains a core driver of our margin improvements.

謝謝，各位早安。第二季我們持續推進策略執行，特別聚焦於生產力提升與成本最佳化；這仍是推動我們利潤率改善的核心動能。

I'm pleased to report that we have achieved $75 million of savings, putting us on track toward our full year target range of $80 million to $90 million. We remain confident in that range for the full year as we went into the year anticipating the first half performance we delivered.

我很高興報告，我們已達成 7,500 萬美元的節省，使我們朝全年 8,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元的目標區間邁進。由於我們在年初即預期上半年會有我們所交出的表現，因此我們對全年達成該區間仍具信心。

As a reminder, the broader program is a total commitment of $120 million by fiscal year-end 2027. That figure represents only defined actions we have full confidence will be actioned by the end of 2027. We continue to explore opportunities that haven't yet met that threshold, which could result in upside to the $120 million in the future.

提醒一下，整體計畫是在 2027 會計年度年底前合計承諾 1.2 億美元。該數字僅代表我們完全有信心在 2027 年底前能落實的既定行動。我們仍在探索尚未達到該門檻的機會，未來可能使 1.2 億美元目標出現上行空間。

Additionally, we ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of 1.1 times even after completion of our $150 million share repurchase program. Simply put, this is the strongest balance sheet in our nearly 150-year history. We understand that value, which gives us the financial flexibility to achieve our three highest capital deployment priorities, organically growing our business while continuing to grow our dividend and repurchase shares, all while maintaining a leverage ratio below 2 times.

此外，即使完成 1.5 億美元的庫藏股回購計畫後，我們在季末的槓桿比率仍為 1.1 倍。簡而言之，這是我們近 150 年歷史中最強健的資產負債表。我們理解其價值，這也賦予我們財務彈性，以達成三項最優先的資本配置目標：透過內生成長擴大業務、持續提高股利並回購股份，同時將槓桿比率維持在 2 倍以下。

Our confidence in driving value through those three priorities is possible because of our improving margin profile and durable free cash flow generation. In the quarter, EBITDA dollars improved 7.5% year over year, margins improved 110 basis points, and free cash flow improved by $93 million compared to Q2 2025, which, by the way, also included cash flow from the divested containerboard business.

我們之所以有信心透過這三項優先事項創造價值，是因為我們的利潤率結構正在改善，且自由現金流產生能力具韌性。本季 EBITDA 金額年增 7.5%，利潤率提升 110 個基點，自由現金流較 2025 年第二季增加 9,300 萬美元；順帶一提，2025 年第二季也包含已出售的箱板紙業務所帶來的現金流。

Those results demonstrate our ability to drive returns through volatility and disruptive impacts on our business from the conflict in the Middle East. We have one of the most engaged and agile workforces in our industry as evidenced by our latest Gallup engagement score in the 91st percentile. So, we know how to deal with situations like these.

這些結果展現了我們在波動之中仍能推動報酬的能力，也顯示我們能因應中東衝突對業務造成的干擾性影響。我們擁有業界最投入且敏捷的員工團隊之一，從最新的蓋洛普員工敬業度分數位於第 91 百分位即可見一斑。因此，我們知道如何處理這類情況。

Our team has proven time and again the ability to navigate challenging, disruptive macroeconomic events. We've been doing it for almost 150 years and have weathered even greater disruption during that time. Our focus, first and foremost, goes to the affected region, ensuring the safety of our colleagues, customers, and suppliers.

我們的團隊一次又一次證明，具備在充滿挑戰、具干擾性的總體經濟事件中航行的能力。我們已經這麼做了將近 150 年，期間也挺過更大的衝擊。我們的首要關注點是受影響地區，確保同仁、客戶與供應商的安全。

We're also monitoring price/cost, making sure to stay ahead of cost inflation driven by the supply chain constraints this conflict has caused. The situation is dynamic, and we expect that it's going to continue to evolve, but we'll manage through it effectively.

我們也在監控價格/成本，確保能領先因本次衝突造成的供應鏈限制所引發的成本通膨。情勢仍在變動，我們預期將持續演變，但我們會有效地加以管理。

While we sincerely hope for a resolution soon, we also recognize the risks the conflict presents on broader demand and industrial sentiment. As such, we are adjusting our full year EBITDA guidance to reflect the disruptive impact experienced in Q2 and continued softness related to the conflict through year-end. Larry will discuss the EBITDA guidance change in a moment.

雖然我們真誠希望能盡快解決，但也認知到衝突對整體需求與工業景氣情緒所帶來的風險。因此，我們調整全年 EBITDA 財測指引，以反映第二季所經歷的干擾性影響，以及衝突可能延續至年底所造成的持續疲弱。Larry 稍後將說明 EBITDA 指引變動。

For now, let's talk about what we experienced in Q2 on slide 4, please. Underlying industrial end market demand remained consistent with what we've seen over the past 12 months. That broad demand picture was overlaid by direct impacts to our business in Q2 related to the Middle East conflict. We experienced intermittent periods of shutdowns in at least one of our facilities in the region.

現在，請先在第 4 張投影片談談我們在第二季的經歷。工業終端市場的基礎需求仍與過去 12 個月所見一致。在此廣泛需求背景之上，第二季我們的業務也受到與中東衝突相關的直接影響。我們在該地區至少有一座工廠出現間歇性停工。

While the total EBITDA loss was less than $5 million in Q2, potential for continued disruption is factored into our guidance. We have also seen in real time the impacts of raising or rising input costs due to the conflict, but we are exhibiting our usual action bias, and our teams are doing a fantastic job keeping ahead of inflation with our own pricing actions. This action bias extends to our supplier relationships, too, where we are in constant communication and ensuring continuity of supply for our customers.

雖然第二季 EBITDA 的總損失少於 500 萬美元，但我們已將持續干擾的可能性納入指引考量。我們也即時看到因衝突導致投入成本上升或提高的影響，但我們展現一貫的行動導向，我們的團隊透過自身的定價措施，在抑制通膨方面做得非常出色並保持領先。這種行動導向也延伸到我們與供應商的關係；我們保持持續溝通，並確保能為客戶維持供應不中斷。

We also saw a few notable volume bright spots in parts of our business. First, as expected, small containers were resilient in the quarter due to a solid start in the Ag season. Second, tube and core, while still soft, has been improving in our two largest end markets, the North American paper and film industries. We also announced a $60 to $70 URB price increase to offset the inflation we are experiencing, which was recognized at $60 a ton in April by RISI, which will result in an increase in our contract customers through negotiated pass-through provisions.

我們也在部分業務看到幾個值得注意的量能亮點。第一，如預期所示，小型容器在本季表現具韌性，因為農業季節開局良好。第二，紙管與紙芯雖仍偏弱，但在我們兩個最大的終端市場——北美紙業與薄膜產業——已呈現改善。我們也宣布每噸 60 至 70 美元的 URB 漲價，以抵銷我們所面臨的通膨；RISI 已於 4 月確認每噸 60 美元，這將透過協商的轉嫁條款，使我們的合約客戶價格上調。

Lastly, closure volumes were also resilient with total volumes flat year over year. While volumes continue to be mixed on an absolute basis, they have consistently been most resilient in the areas of our portfolio in which we are growing. This validates our strategy and progress towards a less cyclical end market mix.

最後，封蓋（closure）銷量也具韌性，總量年對年持平。雖然就絕對值而言，量能仍呈現分歧，但在我們正在成長的產品組合領域，其韌性一向最強。這驗證了我們的策略，以及我們朝向較不具循環性的終端市場組合所取得的進展。

It is clear our growth strategy is sound, and when a meaningful inflection on demand does occur, Greif will unlock significant operating leverage and earnings growth. In the meantime, our focus will continue to be on managing volatility through pricing, cost management, and productivity, which has helped offset the current volume environment and support continued profitability.

很明顯，我們的成長策略是健全的；當需求出現有意義的拐點時，Greif 將釋放顯著的營運槓桿與獲利成長。在此同時，我們將持續聚焦於透過定價、成本管理與生產力來管理波動；這些作法已協助抵銷目前的出貨量環境並支撐持續獲利。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Larry to walk through the financials on slide 5.

接下來，我把電話交給 Larry，請他帶大家看第 5 張投影片的財務表現。

Thank you, Ole. Sales were approximately in line with prior year, and adjusted EBITDA improved by 7.5%, which reflects our decisive cost actions overcoming the weak volume environment. Adjusted EBITDA margins were up 110 basis points year over year and up 230 basis points sequentially from Q1 of 2026. Both were a result of value-based pricing as well as the continued benefits of our cost optimization program.

謝謝你，Ole。銷售額大致與去年同期持平，而調整後 EBITDA 提升了 7.5%，反映出我們果斷的成本措施克服了疲弱的出貨量環境。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年增 110 個基點，且較 2026 年第一季環比提升 230 個基點。這兩者皆源自價值導向定價，以及我們成本優化計畫持續帶來的效益。

Our EBITDA improvement, as well as significantly lower interest cost due to our historically strong balance sheet and favorable year over year quarterly taxes, resulted in adjusted EPS improvement of over 60% year over year.

我們的 EBITDA 改善，加上因我們歷來強健的資產負債表而帶來顯著較低的利息成本，以及有利的年比年季度稅負，使調整後 EPS 年增超過 60%。

Adjusted free cash flow improved 107% or $90 million compared to Q2 2025, a quarter which also included approximately $30 million of cash flow from our divested containerboard business.

調整後自由現金流較 2025 年第二季改善 107%，或增加 9,000 萬美元；而 2025 年第二季亦包含我們已出售的箱板紙業務約 3,000 萬美元的現金流。

Excluding that contribution, free cash flow improved by over 200%. These are all notably strong performance measures for a company which continues to operate in an industrial recessionary environment, which additionally experienced disruption from the conflict in the Middle East. Ole and I are incredibly proud of our team for proving the quality of our business model once again.

若排除該項貢獻，自由現金流改善超過 200%。對於一家仍在工業景氣衰退環境中營運、且另受中東衝突造成干擾的公司而言，這些都是相當亮眼的績效指標。Ole 和我都為團隊再次證明我們商業模式的品質而感到無比自豪。

Please turn to slide 6. Turning to segment performance. Profitability remained resilient across the portfolio. In Polymer Solutions, while volumes improved, gross profit was slightly down year over year due primarily to product and geographic sales mix. Within Metal Solutions, gross profit dollar and percent both improved year-over-year due to continued cost optimization and variable cost management.

請翻到第 6 張投影片。接著看各事業部表現。整體投資組合的獲利能力仍具韌性。在 Polymer Solutions（聚合物解決方案）方面，雖然出貨量改善，但毛利年比年略降，主要因產品與地區銷售組合所致。在 Metal Solutions（金屬解決方案）方面，毛利金額與毛利率（百分比）皆年比年提升，得益於持續的成本優化與變動成本管理。

In Fiber Solutions, net sales were lower year over year due to volumes, and our mill closures in 2025. Despite lower volumes, positive year over year pricing, and cost management helped gross profit margins improve by 50 basis points.

在 Fiber Solutions（纖維解決方案）方面，受出貨量影響以及我們於 2025 年的工廠關閉，淨銷售額年比年下降。儘管出貨量較低，年比年正向的定價與成本管理仍協助毛利率提升 50 個基點。

Within Closures, third-party volumes declined to low single digits, while total volumes were flat year over year. Gross profit dollars and margin both increased on an absolute basis, reflecting strong price/mix and continued operational improvements. Please turn to slide 7 to discuss guidance.

在 Closures（封蓋）方面，第三方出貨量下滑至低個位數百分比，而總出貨量年比年持平。毛利金額與毛利率皆在絕對值上增加，反映強勁的價格/組合表現以及持續的營運改善。請翻到第 7 張投影片討論財測指引。

When we issue low-end guidance, we factor in all reasonably possible factors that may influence our business in the year ahead to present a view of performance in a low operating environment. When we issued guidance in early November 2025, we did not consider the potential for a conflict in the Middle East. As such, we are revising our low-end guidance to $610 million of adjusted EBITDA while maintaining our low-end adjusted free cash flow guidance of $315 million.

當我們發布低端指引時，會納入所有合理可能影響未來一年業務的因素，以呈現低度營運環境下的績效觀點。我們在 2025 年 11 月初發布指引時，並未考量中東可能爆發衝突。因此，我們將調整後 EBITDA 的低端指引修訂為 6.10 億美元，同時維持調整後自由現金流低端指引為 3.15 億美元。

To be clear, if not for the already incurred and potential direct impacts of the conflict, we would not have changed our low-end guidance. Thus, our updated EBITDA guidance reflects the estimated direct disruptive impact we experienced in Q2 related to the Middle East conflict in addition to a revised volume assumption, which considers a scenario where the Middle East conflict drives further volume softness.

說清楚一點，若非該衝突已發生及可能發生的直接影響，我們不會調整低端指引。因此，我們更新後的 EBITDA 指引反映：我們在第二季因中東衝突所經歷的估計直接干擾影響，並加上修訂後的出貨量假設；該假設納入一種情境，即中東衝突導致出貨量進一步走弱。

Our prior guidance assumed metals and fiber volumes flat to down low singles and polymer and closure volumes up low singles. Our revised volume assumptions are Metal, Fiber, and Closures down mid-singles and polymers flat. Guidance also reflects a net tailwind of $5 million for the impact of a $60 URB increase, which we expect will benefit the P&L starting in July, but will be partially offset by the $5 a ton increase in OCC, which is already impacting the P&L.

我們先前的指引假設：金屬與纖維出貨量持平至低個位數下滑，而聚合物與封蓋出貨量為低個位數成長。我們修訂後的出貨量假設為：金屬、纖維與封蓋下滑中個位數百分比，聚合物持平。指引亦反映 URB 上漲 60 美元帶來 500 萬美元的淨順風，我們預期將自 7 月起有利於損益表，但會被 OCC 每噸上漲 5 美元部分抵銷，而 OCC 已在影響損益表。

Our impressive free cash flow results this quarter demonstrate the resilience of our business model and ability to drive cash regardless of volatility. We are confident in maintaining our low-end free cash flow guidance of $315 million. While EBITDA is expected to be possibly $20 million lower, we are also assuming a $20 million lower working capital source due to higher raw material indexes and actions taken to ensure continuity of supply for our customers. These impacts are offset by a lower expectation of cash taxes. With our current visibility today, we have full confidence in this revised guidance.

本季亮眼的自由現金流結果，展現我們商業模式的韌性，以及不論波動如何都能創造現金的能力。我們有信心維持自由現金流低端指引 3.15 億美元。雖然 EBITDA 可能預期低約 2,000 萬美元，但我們也假設營運資金來源將減少 2,000 萬美元，原因是原物料指數走高，以及為確保客戶供應連續性所採取的行動。上述影響將由較低的現金稅負預期所抵銷。以我們目前的能見度，我們對這項修訂後的指引充滿信心。

We sincerely hope for a resolution to the Middle East conflict soon. Our commitment to you is regardless of the volume environment in the remainder of the year, we will continue to control the controllables while maintaining our strong balance sheet.

我們真誠希望中東衝突能儘快獲得解決。我們對各位的承諾是：不論今年剩餘期間的出貨量環境如何，我們都將持續掌控可控事項，同時維持我們強健的資產負債表。

Please turn to slide 8 to discuss capital allocation. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We will continue to invest in our future through high returns on invested capital organic growth opportunities while maintaining a strong balance sheet. The only M&A we are considering is organic growth-enabling bolt-ons, and we fully expect leverage to remain below 2 times.

請翻到第 8 張投影片討論資本配置。我們的資本配置優先順序維持不變。我們將在維持強健資產負債表的同時，持續透過具高投資資本報酬率的內生成長機會投資未來。我們考量的唯一併購是能促進內生成長的補強型併購（bolt-ons），且我們完全預期槓桿將維持在 2 倍以下。

Two additional capital allocation updates from this past quarter. First, as Ole mentioned earlier, shortly following Q2, we completed our $150 million share repurchase program. We retained an additional authorization of $300 million, which we are not currently utilizing but plan to do so in a disciplined and value-accretive manner.

本季另有兩項資本配置更新。第一，如 Ole 先前提到的，在第二季結束後不久，我們完成了 1.50 億美元的庫藏股回購計畫。我們保留了額外 3.00 億美元的核准額度，目前尚未動用，但計畫以審慎且具增值效益的方式加以運用。

Second, this past quarter, we also refinanced our debt facilities, extending our term loans to 2031 and resulting in a current weighted average interest rate of 3.14%. Access to the Farm Credit System provides us a competitive advantage in lending, lowering the overall interest impact on earnings for any debt that we do take on, while we remain committed to below 2 times ratio.

第二，本季我們也為債務融資安排進行再融資，將定期貸款展延至 2031 年，並使目前加權平均利率為 3.14%。取得 Farm Credit System 的融資管道，讓我們在借貸上具競爭優勢，降低我們所承擔任何債務對獲利的整體利息影響，同時我們仍承諾槓桿比率維持在 2 倍以下。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Ole on slide 9.

接下來，我把電話交回給 Ole，請看第 9 張投影片。

Thanks, Larry. Before wrapping up, I'd like to highlight that last week, we issued our 17th annual sustainability report, which is available at greif.com/sustainability. We encourage our investor community to read this report as the sustainable, durable nature of all our products is a distinct competitive advantage, which also drives value creation at Greif.

謝謝，Larry。在結束之前，我想強調我們在上週發布了第 17 份年度永續報告，可於 greif.com/sustainability 取得。我們鼓勵投資人社群閱讀此報告，因為我們所有產品具永續且耐用的特性，是一項明顯的競爭優勢，也推動 Greif 的價值創造。

To summarize the quarter, while near-term demand conditions remain mixed, we continue to make strong progress on the controllable factors that drive long-term value creation. We are a packaging leader to essential industries with durable competitive advantages that enable us to accelerate profitable growth even in a soft demand environment through cost optimization, variable price cost discipline, and a portfolio mix shifting towards less cyclical end markets.

總結本季，儘管短期需求狀況仍然分歧，我們持續在推動長期價值創造的可控因素上取得強勁進展。我們是服務關鍵產業的包裝領導者，具備可持續的競爭優勢，使我們即便在需求疲弱的環境下，仍能透過成本優化、變動價格與成本紀律，以及將產品組合轉向較不具景氣循環性的終端市場，來加速獲利成長。

This is all driven by a disciplined capital allocation strategy, which ensures durable total shareholder return via a healthy balance sheet, smart organic investments in growth end markets, and attractive dividend and consistent share repurchases.

這一切皆由嚴謹的資本配置策略所驅動；該策略透過健全的資產負債表、在成長型終端市場的明智內生投資、具吸引力的股利以及持續的股票回購，確保可持續的股東總報酬。

Taken together, Greif is a compelling value thesis with strong underlying earnings power and a management team laser-focused on driving shareholder return in all environments. Thank you for joining us today, and we will now open the call for questions.

綜合來看，Greif 是一個極具吸引力的價值投資主題，具備強勁的內在獲利能力，且管理團隊在任何環境下都高度聚焦於推動股東報酬。感謝各位今天加入我們，接下來我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Ghansham Panjabi, Robert W. Baird.

Ghansham Panjabi，Robert W. Baird。

This is actually Will Cauthen on for Ghansham. So, you finished the $150 million program in early April with $300 million still authorized. Balance sheet currently sits in a good position. But understanding the context of the current macro backdrop, is the plan to continue to bias towards share buybacks? And can you give us an update on what the M&A pipeline looks like in terms of segment mix and size?

其實我是代替 Ghansham 的 Will Cauthen。所以，你們在 4 月初完成了 1.5 億美元的計畫，目前仍有 3 億美元的額度獲授權。資產負債表目前處於良好狀態。但在理解當前總體環境背景的前提下，計畫是否會繼續偏向股票回購？另外，能否更新一下併購（M&A）管線的情況，包括事業部組合與規模？

Will, yes, so first of all, our focus is on organic growth, and we're deploying CapEx to support organic growth. And then secondly, M&A is -- our focus there is really secondary. We have a very healthy pipeline. We continue to focus on that. But the M&A we will be doing will be targeted M&A to, let's say, complement our organic growth efforts.

Will，是的，首先，我們的重點在於有機成長，我們也在投入資本支出（CapEx）以支持有機成長。其次，併購方面——我們的重點其實是次要的。我們有非常健康的管線。我們會持續聚焦於此。但我們將進行的併購會是具針對性的併購，用來補強我們的有機成長努力。

Yes. And with respect to the share repurchase, we do have the authorization. And as we've stated, we intend to be regular buyers of our stock we work with our Board on specific executions against that authorization and plan to be talking with our Board at our upcoming Board meeting.

是的。至於股票回購，我們確實有授權額度。正如我們所說，我們打算成為公司股票的常態性買方；我們會與董事會就該授權下的具體執行方式合作，並計畫在即將召開的董事會會議上與董事會討論。

Okay. That's very helpful. And if I could just sneak one more in? Can you talk about your pricing actions to offset the higher raw material costs, how they're going? And can you quantify or at least give a high-level view of how we can expect those price increases to flow through over the final two fiscal quarters?

好的。這非常有幫助。如果我可以再追問一個？能否談談你們為抵消原物料成本上升所採取的定價措施進展如何？以及你們能否量化，或至少從高層次說明，我們可以預期這些漲價在最後兩個會計季度會如何反映出來？

The majority of our contracts with our global customers have a price adjustment mechanism. And we have changed most of them. So, they now operate on a monthly basis, and they follow the index. So, as raw materials go up, prices adjust automatically. And that ensures that we are always ahead of the wave in terms of the volatility we currently experience, and that protects our margins.

我們與全球客戶的大多數合約都有價格調整機制。而且我們已經調整了其中大部分。因此，現在它們以每月為基礎運作，並跟隨指數。所以，當原物料上漲時，價格會自動調整。這確保我們在目前所經歷的波動下，能始終走在前面，並保護我們的利潤率。

Yes. And the other thing, and you've heard us talk about this before, but one of the things that we improved dramatically over the last seven years or so was providing openers in our contracts for other cost increases. So, the team has done an excellent job of executing on that. And customers, they're managing this well, too. They know they're facing the same things we are. And so, it's going very well.

是的。另外一點，你們以前也聽我們談過：過去大約七年左右，我們大幅改善的一件事，是在合約中加入針對其他成本上升的調整條款。團隊在這方面的執行做得非常出色。客戶也把這件事管理得很好。他們知道他們面臨的情況與我們相同。所以，進展非常順利。

Richard Carlson, Wells Fargo.

Richard Carlson，Wells Fargo。

Congrats on all the execution that's happening. Clearly, a good story here. I want to start just with the guidance because at the beginning of the year, you provided a bridge as far as what we'd expect, volumes are expected to be flat and then most of the growth is going to come from SG&A and price cost. So now that volumes are going to be down, wondering what that -- what the bridge would now look like, specifically around the SG&A and price cost?

恭喜你們在執行面上的各項成果。顯然這是一個很好的故事。我想先從財測談起，因為年初你們提供了一個橋接，說明我們可以預期的情況：出貨量預期持平，而大部分成長將來自 SG&A 與價格/成本。那麼現在出貨量將下滑，我想了解那個橋接現在會長什麼樣子，特別是 SG&A 與價格/成本的部分？

Yes. I mean, essentially, what's changed is our teams have done a really great job of driving cost out through supply chain efforts, sourcing efforts, all of our SG&A efforts and it's allowed us to offset the impacts of that volume degradation as well as really selling value again over volume. And so, we're driving price cost very well. So really, the only true change outside of those things netting is the Middle East conflict direct and expected potential impacts.

是的。基本上，改變的是：我們的團隊透過供應鏈作為、採購作為，以及所有 SG&A 的努力，在降本方面做得非常好，這讓我們得以抵消出貨量下滑的影響，同時也真正做到再次以「價值」而非「量」來銷售。因此，我們在價格/成本的推動上表現很好。所以，除了上述因素相互抵銷後，唯一真正的變化是中東衝突的直接影響，以及預期的潛在影響。

And Richard, if I can just add, just to remind everyone, we've been here before. We -- just to mention a few recent events, beyond COVID, we've had port strikes with Venezuela, we dealt with the Ukraine conflict, we've had a closure of the Suez Canal, and quite a few regional crises in the Middle East. But when you operate almost 250 plants in over 40 countries and you have these occurrences, you just know what to do, and we have an exceptional supply chain organization that takes care of our customers in this respect.

Richard，如果我補充一下，提醒大家，我們以前也遇過這種情況。我們——舉幾個近期事件，除了 COVID 之外，我們遇過委內瑞拉相關的港口罷工、處理過烏克蘭衝突、遇過蘇伊士運河關閉，以及中東多起區域性危機。但當你在超過 40 個國家營運將近 250 座工廠，遇到這些狀況時，你就知道該怎麼做；而且我們有一個卓越的供應鏈組織，能在這方面照顧好我們的客戶。

Got it. And then with URB, RISI recognized your price increase pretty much immediately, we're already seeing some containerboard hikes occurring supplemental to what we've already seen this year. Do you think the URB market could handle another price increase on top of what you and your competitors have already announced?

了解。接著談 URB，RISI 幾乎立刻就反映了你們的漲價；我們也已經看到今年在既有漲幅之外，還出現一些額外的箱板紙漲價。你認為 URB 市場能否承受在你們與競爭對手已宣布的漲價之上，再來一次漲價？

We've been very successful over the past years. We don't comment on future price increases. But one thing I do want to correct in the script, I didn't catch a typo earlier. I said there was a $5 million benefit from the URB price increase. It was actually $11 million and netted with the $2 million of impact on OCC.

過去幾年我們一直非常成功。我們不評論未來的漲價。但我確實想更正一下講稿中的內容，我先前沒有注意到一個錯字。我說 URB 漲價帶來 500 萬美元的效益。其實是 1,100 萬美元，並與 OCC 影響的 200 萬美元相抵後計入。

It's actually a $9 million lift, not $5 million. So, we're executing well on that, and that's running through. And that was mostly to offset inflationary costs, if not all. And we'll continue to monitor that situation and take action as deemed appropriate.

實際上是增加 900 萬美元，而不是 500 萬美元。所以，我們在這方面執行得很好，而且效益正在反映出來。那主要是用來抵消通膨成本，如果不是全部的話。我們會持續監控情勢，並在認為適當時採取行動。

Great. And then one more for me, guys, and then I'll hop back in the queue. So, you maintained your CapEx guide for the year. Can you remind us of what the split between maintenance and growth is? And is this something that if things get tighter, you could pull back a little bit more? Or are you wanting to continue to focus on the projects that you have at hand?

很好。我再問最後一個，然後我就回到排隊序列。你們維持了今年的資本支出指引。能否提醒我們維護性與成長性資本支出的分配比例？如果情況變得更吃緊，這部分是否可以再稍微縮減？或者你們希望持續聚焦在手上的專案？

Yes. We're in obviously an extremely strong balance sheet position. So, we're executing against our capital opportunities appropriately. About $85 million or so is maintenance CapEx, some of which is maybe we're doing more now than we may have, but we've got things that we want to get done. So, we're focused on that.

是的。我們顯然處於極為強勁的資產負債表狀態。因此，我們會適當地執行我們的資本機會。大約 8,500 萬美元左右是維護性資本支出，其中一部分可能是我們現在做得比原本可能會做的更多，但我們有一些想完成的事情。所以，我們會聚焦在這上面。

We may have another $5 million to $10 million of safety. And then the remainder is organic growth opportunities heavily focused on the resin-based sector and particularly on our small plastics area, which is or small polymers, which is obviously showing the growth that we expected when we did our acquisitions.

我們可能還有另外 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元的安全緩衝空間。接著其餘部分是有機成長機會，重點聚焦在樹脂基產業，特別是我們的小型塑膠業務（或小型聚合物業務）；這一塊顯然正展現出我們在進行收購時所預期的成長。

Matt Roberts, Raymond James.

Matt Roberts，Raymond James。

Apologies if I missed, but I'm going to ask a couple on the volume side. So, the guide -- first on polymer, guide, I believe, implies no sequential improvement, but you noted continued strength on ag chem. So maybe what are the puts and takes in second half and how those target end markets are performing versus any drags that you may be seeing?

如果我有漏聽先致歉，但我想就出貨量方面問幾個問題。所以，指引——先談聚合物，我認為指引暗示沒有季對季改善，但你提到農化仍持續強勁。那麼，下半年有哪些拉抬與抵銷因素？這些目標終端市場的表現如何？相較之下，你們是否看到任何拖累？

Similarly, on metal, I believe the guide implies no sequential improvement despite the easier comp. So, are the trends worsening there? Or is that more so the operational disruption that's factored in? And how does that disruption impact in second half compared to the $5 million that you called out in 2Q?

同樣地，在金屬方面，我認為指引也暗示即使比較基期更容易，仍沒有季對季改善。所以，那邊的趨勢是在惡化嗎？還是說，這主要是把營運中斷因素納入考量？而這個中斷在下半年的影響，與你們在第二季提到的 500 萬美元相比如何？

If we take -- first of all, Matt, if we take the tensions out disruption in the Middle East out, then volume in Q2 was very, very similar to Q1. We haven't seen any inflection points. And as Larry mentioned, where we see inflection or growth is really in our small polymer, in particular, in the ag chem segment. And we expect that to continue. Where we have seen a decline as a result of the Middle East disruption is primarily in steel -- and we can't really talk about the future, but that will probably continue until we have a resolution.

如果我們——首先，Matt，如果把中東緊張局勢造成的中斷因素排除，第二季的量其實與第一季非常、非常接近。我們尚未看到任何拐點。如 Larry 提到的，我們看到的拐點或成長主要是在我們的小型聚合物，特別是在農化領域。我們預期這種情況會持續。而我們因中東中斷所看到的下滑，主要是在鋼鐵——我們無法真正談未來，但這種情況可能會持續，直到問題獲得解決。

So, for the rest of the year. Yes, we don't see an inflection point for the rest of the year.

所以，就今年剩餘時間而言。是的，我們在今年剩餘時間看不到拐點。

Okay. That's certainly understandable. And you have had a lot of success on the cost initiatives. So, when volumes eventually do turn, whenever that is, how are you all thinking about the incremental margin within each segment versus historical rates, understanding there's been some movement between segments and shifting there. So, kind of what are you assuming on the incremental once you get back to flat or growing volume either?

好的。這當然可以理解。而你們在成本措施上已經取得很大成效。所以，當出貨量最終回升時——不論那會是何時——你們如何看待各事業部的增量毛利率相較於歷史水準？也理解到事業部之間有一些變動與移轉。也就是說，一旦回到持平或恢復成長的出貨量，你們對增量（毛利率）大致是怎麼假設的？

I'm sorry. The incremental margin lift is exponential. I mean we're operating at very efficient levels right now and yet, we have capacity in virtually every factory we have around the world without adding any labor component, leveraging the fixed cost structures.

抱歉。增量毛利率的提升是呈指數型的。我的意思是，我們目前已在非常高效率的水準運作，但我們在全球幾乎每一座工廠都還有產能，不需要增加任何勞動力投入，就能槓桿固定成本結構。

And so, in most plants, as we get incremental volume, there's a step level and it varies plant by plant, but you're going to have over 50% margins on some of this lift with some volume recoveries. For us, a significant portion, I mean, we'll have significant lift. And then as we add shifts, the margin will drop back down. But we have really, really big opportunity on an inflection point on volume recovery.

因此，在多數工廠，當我們取得增量出貨量時，會有一個階梯式水準，且因廠而異；但在部分增量提升上，你會看到超過 50% 的毛利率，伴隨一些出貨量回升。對我們而言，其中相當一部分——也就是說，我們會有顯著的提升。接著當我們增加班次時，毛利率會再回落。但在出貨量回升出現拐點時，我們確實有非常、非常大的機會。

Let me also remind that all the cost measures we've done are all structural. They're not coming back. For instance, we have reduced our professional workforce by 12%, and that's a structural reduction. And that's what Larry says, once volume even returns to a normalized level, we are in an extremely good position to capitalize on that.

我也提醒一下，我們所做的所有成本措施都是結構性的。它們不會回來。例如，我們已將專業人力縮減 12%，這是結構性縮編。正如 Larry 所說，一旦出貨量即使只是回到正常化水準，我們也處於極佳位置，可以把握這個機會。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Richard Carlson, Wells Fargo.

Richard Carlson，Wells Fargo。

Just a couple of quick more. I guess, first, incremental $10 million in cost savings quarter-over-quarter. Can you talk about what drove that? Was it anything new? Or is it just moving another quarter forward with some of the actions that you have already put in place?

再快速問兩個。我想先問，季度環比新增 1,000 萬美元的成本節省。可以談談是什麼驅動的嗎？有任何新的措施嗎？還是只是你們已經落地的行動，在時間上又往前推進了一季？

Yes. It's really just additional movement forward on our structural cost across our organization. There's some element of SG&A, but the vast majority is footprint improvements and structural costs within our operations as well as some incremental sourcing benefits.

是的。這主要就是我們在全組織推進結構性成本的進一步進展。其中有一部分是 SG&A，但絕大多數來自據點/產能布局的改善，以及我們營運內部的結構性成本，另外也有一些額外的採購效益。

Got it. And then last one for me, and then we'll take everything else off-line. But slide 4, with the geographic exposure, you have softness across all regions, which is the same as what you showed last quarter. So, I'm just wondering, obviously, a lot has happened since last quarter. Is there any -- I know you guys don't talk about regional performance per se, but anything you can call out that has changed from last quarter?

了解。那我最後一個問題，之後我們就線下再處理其他事項。在第 4 張投影片的地理曝險，你們在所有地區都呈現疲弱，這與你們上季展示的相同。所以我想問，顯然自上季以來發生了很多事。是否有任何——我知道你們通常不特別談各區域表現，但有沒有什麼可以指出相較上季有變化的地方？

Any pockets of strength you're seeing anywhere? Just wondering if -- since everything says softness, if there's anything you want to call out as being maybe better or worse?

你們在任何地方看到一些強勢的區塊嗎？只是想確認——既然全部都寫疲弱，有沒有什麼你們想特別指出可能更好或更差的？

Yes, we had some changes in the Middle East. Yes. Other than that, it's pretty much like the first quarter, whether you say in APAC or Latin America or North America.

是的，我們在中東有一些變化。是的。除此之外，基本上就跟第一季差不多，不管你說是亞太、拉丁美洲或北美。

I'm showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to Ole Rosgaard for closing remarks.

我這邊顯示沒有進一步提問。我現在把電話會議交回給 Ole Rosgaard 作結語。

Thank you and thank you for the discussion. I just want to remind everyone that demand remains soft, and we are not yet seeing an inflection. What really matters is how we respond. We are executing with discipline, we are generating strong cash and operating from a much stronger balance sheet.

謝謝，也謝謝各位的討論。我想提醒大家，需求仍然疲弱，我們尚未看到拐點。真正重要的是我們如何回應。我們以紀律執行，創造強勁現金流，並在更強健的資產負債表基礎上營運。

Our strategy is unchanged, build organic growth and stay selective on capital allocation. We are a stronger Greif today and well positioned to outperform through the cycle. Thank you for your interest.

我們的策略不變：建立有機成長，並在資本配置上保持審慎挑選。今天的 Greif 更加強健，並已做好準備在景氣循環中跑贏同業。感謝各位的關注。

And this concludes today's program. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。