Global Indemnity Group LLC (GBLI) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the GBLI 2Q 2023 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Steve Ries. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 GBLI 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在將會議交給 Steve Ries 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Today's conference call is being recorded. GBLI's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, beliefs, expectations, or estimates.

謝謝你，莎拉。今天的電話會議正在錄音。 GBLI 的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以通過使用前瞻性詞語來識別，包括但不限於信念、期望或估計。

We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results.

我們提醒您，此類前瞻性陳述不應被視為我們表示我們預期的未來計劃、估計或期望實際上將會實現。請參閱我們的 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件，了解我們經營所在的商業環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素的描述。

Global Indemnity Group, LLC is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Global Indemnity Group, LLC 不承擔任何義務，並明確否認有任何更新或更改其前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Jay Brown, Chief Executive Officer of Global Indemnity.

現在我很高興將電話轉給 Global Indemnity 首席執行官 Jay Brown 先生。

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, and thanks to everyone on the call for taking the time this morning to join us for our second-quarter results discussion. Before we review our results for the quarter, let me address the elephant in the room.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。早上好，感謝所有參加電話會議的人今天早上抽出時間參加我們的第二季度業績討論。在我們回顧本季度的業績之前，讓我先談談房間裡的大象。

As we stated in our June 9 press release, the company is engaged in conversations that could potentially lead to a transaction to sell a portion of our insurance operations for the entire company. These conversations are continuing. And as stated in our press release, we do not intend to make any further comments unless or until it has been completed or suspended. As such, we will not be making any further comments today.

正如我們在 6 月 9 日的新聞稿中所述，該公司正在進行對話，可能會促成一項出售整個公司部分保險業務的交易。這些對話仍在繼續。正如我們在新聞稿中所述，我們不打算發表任何進一步的評論，除非或直到它已經完成或暫停。因此，我們今天不會發表任何進一步的評論。

That said, let's turn to the results for the second quarter. As we noted in our last two calls, the significant restructuring that has occurred in the prior two quarters does not make direct comparisons to prior year overall results somewhat difficult. Our ongoing operating segments are primarily commercial specialty and, to a much lesser extent, reinsurance operations.

也就是說，讓我們來看看第二季度的結果。正如我們在最近兩次電話會議中指出的那樣，前兩個季度發生的重大重組並沒有使與去年總體業績的直接比較變得有些困難。我們正在進行的經營業務主要是商業專業業務，其次是再保險業務。

I will focus my comments on commercial specialty results as this is the portion of our operations, which will dictate future underwriting results. Following my comments, Tom will address all the financial aspects of our GAAP results: the long-term operating metrics we are focused on for ongoing commercial; our loss and loss expense ratios consistent with our long-term average in the mid-50s and expense ratio of below 38% this year trending to 36% in a couple of years; a combined ratio in the low-90s; and growth averaging 10%.

我將集中評論商業專業結果，因為這是我們運營的一部分，它將決定未來的承保結果。在我發表評論之後，湯姆將討論我們的 GAAP 結果的所有財務方面：我們關注的持續商業的長期運營指標；我們的損失和損失費用率與 50 年代中期的長期平均水平一致，今年的費用率低於 38%，幾年後將趨向於 36%；綜合比率在 90 左右；平均增長率為 10%。

I am very encouraged by our second-quarter accident year results, albeit we still have some work to do. For the second quarter, our accident year loss and loss expense ratio was 57.5%. Our expense ratio was 36.2%, and the combined ratio was 93.7%.

儘管我們還有一些工作要做，但我對第二季度事故年的結果感到非常鼓舞。第二季度，我們的事故年損失和損失費用率為 57.5%。我們的費用率為36.2%，綜合成本率為93.7%。

In addition, despite the high industry catastrophic losses in the quarter, our ongoing efforts to increase the proportion of our business that's casualty and continue to manage our catastrophic property exposures, we only incurred $4.1 million in cat losses, which are reflected in the 57.5% loss and loss expense ratio I referenced above. All excellent profitability figures, which are consistent with our metrics, but unfortunately, our core business had a very disappointing growth of minus 6% in the second quarter.

此外，儘管本季度行業災難性損失很高，但我們不斷努力增加傷亡業務比例並繼續管理災難性財產風險，我們僅發生了410 萬美元的巨災損失，這反映在57.5% 的巨災損失中。我上面提到的損失和損失費用比率。所有出色的盈利數據都與我們的指標一致，但不幸的是，我們的核心業務第二季度的增長非常令人失望，為-6%。

The lack of growth was all driven by just one of our three divisions. This division targets specific agents with concentrated books of single-class business where substantial re-underwriting and pricing actions resulted in a loss of significant amount of premium of $15 million compared to the same period in 2022. In sharp contrast, our core package specialty business grew 13%, and our retail-focused Vacant Express and collectible business grew 14%.

增長乏力完全是由我們三個部門之一造成的。該部門針對的是單一類別業務集中賬簿的特定代理商，這些代理商的大量再承保和定價行為導致與2022 年同期相比損失了1500 萬美元的巨額保費。與此形成鮮明對比的是，我們的核心套餐專業業務增長了 13%，我們以零售為主的 Vacant Express 和收藏品業務增長了 14%。

As an insurance underwriter, we are consistently focused -- faced with balancing profitable pricing and underwriting with our growth objectives. Given our over-arching objective to be a consistent profitable underwriter, this is one of those periods where we sacrificed some unprofitable business to benefit the bottom line.

作為保險承保人，我們始終專注於平衡盈利定價和承保與我們的增長目標。鑑於我們的首要目標是成為一家持續盈利的承銷商，這是我們犧牲一些無利可圖的業務以提高利潤的時期之一。

Tom will provide more details, but our decision to play defense on interest rates by dramatically shortening the duration of our bond portfolio starting 18 months ago is really beginning to pay dividends as our investment book yield is rising every month, with investment income coming in at $13 million for the quarter, roughly double that of a year ago. With $800 million of our investment portfolio maturing in the next six quarters, we fully expect this number should keep rising every quarter.

湯姆將提供更多細節，但我們從 18 個月前開始大幅縮短債券投資組合久期來防禦利率的決定確實開始帶來紅利，因為我們的投資賬面收益率每個月都在上升，投資收入為該季度1300 萬美元，大約是去年同期的兩倍。隨著我們 8 億美元的投資組合在未來六個季度到期，我們完全預計這個數字每個季度都會持續增長。

During the quarter, we increased the Board authorized share repurchase from $50 million -- $60 million to $135 million. Because of the extremely small volume of shares traded each day, our repurchase efforts are focused on reverse inquiry opportunities. During the quarter, we repurchased 200,000 shares at an average price of $28 and have $101 million remaining available for share repurchases.

本季度，我們將董事會授權的股票回購金額從 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元增加到 1.35 億美元。由於每天的股票交易量極小，我們的回購工作主要集中在反向詢價機會上。本季度，我們以平均價格 28 美元回購了 200,000 股股票，還有 1.01 億美元可用於股票回購。

Standing back, this is a pretty good quarter. But we obviously have more work to do to both achieve these profitability results on a consistent basis quarter after quarter with higher growth to deliver an acceptable return for our shareholders. Tom?

退一步來說，這是一個相當不錯的季度。但我們顯然還有更多的工作要做，才能在一個又一個季度保持一致的基礎上實現這些盈利結果，並實現更高的增長，為我們的股東帶來可接受的回報。湯姆？

Thank you, Jay, and good morning, everyone. Net income for the second quarter of 2023 was $9.3 million, and adjusted operating income, which excludes realized losses and results of exited lines, was $6.9 million. We are pleased with the direction of our results. Actions taken to focus on core business lines -- reduce expenses, reduced catastrophe exposure, and reposition the investment portfolio -- are being realized.

謝謝杰伊，大家早上好。 2023 年第二季度淨利潤為 930 萬美元，調整後營業收入（不包括已實現虧損和退出線路的業績）為 690 萬美元。我們對結果的方向感到滿意。為專注於核心業務而採取的行動——減少開支、減少災難風險以及重新定位投資組合——正在得到落實。

Book value per share increased from $45.68 at March 31, 2023, to $46.03 at June 30, 2023, due to good underwriting results, strong investment income, and share repurchases. As Jay noted, during the quarter, 200,000 shares were required. Since the share repurchase program was initiated in the fourth quarter of 2022, the company has repurchased 1,357,082 shares from third parties for an aggregate amount of $34 million.

由於良好的承銷業績、強勁的投資收入和股票回購，每股賬面價值從2023年3月31日的45.68美元增至2023年6月30日的46.03美元。正如 Jay 指出的，本季度需要 200,000 股。自2022年第四季度啟動股票回購計劃以來，該公司已從第三方回購了1,357,082股股票，總金額為3400萬美元。

I will now discuss some of the key drivers of net income, starting with investment performance. Investment income was $13.2 million during the second quarter of 2023. On a year-to-date basis, investment income is $25.2 million, comprised of $24.1 million from fixed income investments and $1.1 million from alternative investments.

我現在將從投資業績開始討論淨利潤的一些關鍵驅動因素。 2023 年第二季度的投資收入為 1,320 萬美元。年初至今，投資收入為 2,520 萬美元，其中 2,410 萬美元來自固定收益投資，110 萬美元來自另類投資。

This compares to $8.5 million in 2022, comprised of $13.3 million from fixed income investments and negative investment income of $4.8 million from alternatives. Investment income from the fixed income portfolio was almost double what it was in 2022 due to the actions taken in early 2022 to sell longer-dated securities in short duration.

相比之下，2022 年為 850 萬美元，其中固定收益投資為 1,330 萬美元，另類投資為負投資收益 480 萬美元。由於 2022 年初採取了短期出售長期證券的行動，固定收益投資組合的投資收益幾乎是 2022 年的兩倍。

Book yield on the portfolio was 3.8% at June 30, 2023, and duration is 1.4 years. As a comparison, at December 31, 2021, book yield on the fixed income portfolio was 2.2%, and duration was 3.2 years. At December 31, 2022, book yield was 3.5%, and duration was 1.7 years.

截至2023年6月30日，該投資組合的賬面收益率為3.8%，久期為1.4年。相比之下，截至2021年12月31日，固定收益投資組合的賬面收益率為2.2%，久期為3.2年。截至2022年12月31日，賬面收益率為3.5%，久期為1.7年。

Between June 30, 2023, and December 31, 2024, we expect our investment portfolio will generate approximately $900 million of cash flow. This is comprised of $800 million from maturities and the remainder from investment income. We expect these funds will be invested at rates that will further increase book yield.

在2023年6月30日至2024年12月31日期間，我們預計我們的投資組合將產生約9億美元的現金流。其中 8 億美元來自到期資金，其餘來自投資收入。我們預計這些資金的投資利率將進一步提高賬面收益率。

Realized losses in the second quarter of 2023 were $0.8 million, mainly due to selling several assets to improve overall investment returns. Unrealized losses increased by $3.2 million in the second quarter of 2023 due to the rise in rates. The short-duration fixed income portfolio helped minimize unrealized losses.

2023年第二季度已實現虧損80萬美元，主要是由於出售多項資產以提高整體投資回報。由於費率上漲，2023 年第二季度未實現損失增加了 320 萬美元。短期固定收益投資組合有助於最大限度地減少未實現損失。

Moving to underwriting, in the second quarter of 2023, our continuing lines had an accident year underwriting profit of $6.4 million compared to an underwriting profit of $4.5 million in 2022. Continuing lines in the second quarter performed in line with our expectations. The continuing lines accident year combined ratio in the second quarter was 94.9%.

轉向承保方面，2023 年第二季度，我們的持續險種的意外年度承保利潤為 640 萬美元，而 2022 年的承保利潤為 450 萬美元。第二季度的持續險種表現符合我們的預期。第二季度持續線路事故年綜合率為94.9%。

On a consolidated basis in the second quarter of 2023, there was an underwriting gain of $4.3 million compared to an underwriting gain of $2.1 million in 2022. On a consolidated basis, prior year reserved development was flat. Exited lines had good development of approximately $6 million, primarily from property catastrophe reserves. Within our continuing lines, loss reserves were strengthened by approximately $6 million, primarily related to non-renewed casualty business.

在合併基礎上，2023 年第二季度的承保收益為 430 萬美元，而 2022 年的承保收益為 210 萬美元。在合併基礎上，上一年預留開發量持平。退出的線路有約 600 萬美元的良好發展，主要來自財產災難儲備。在我們的持續業務範圍內，損失準備金增加了約 600 萬美元，主要與未更新的意外險業務相關。

In the second quarter of 2023, gross written premium in our continuing lines was $110.2 million compared to $151.5 million in 2022. Much of the decrease was planned. Reinsurance operations rose $14.8 million in 2023 compared to $46.5 million in 2022. This decline is mainly due to not renewing a casualty treaty in 2023.

2023 年第二季度，我們的持續險種的毛承保保費為 1.102 億美元，而 2022 年為 1.515 億美元。大部分下降是計劃中的。 2023 年再保險業務增加了 1,480 萬美元，而 2022 年為 4,650 萬美元。這一下降主要是由於 2023 年沒有續簽傷亡條約。

Within commercial specialty, package E&S, which is comprised of Pan-American business, the company's primary division within its commercial specialty segment, it increased gross written premiums from $58.3 million to $62.7 million in 2023. Package specialty grew approximately 8%, driven by new agency appointments, strong rate increases, as well as exposure growth in both property and general liability. Excluding underperforming business that was terminated, package specialty grew by 13%.

在商業專業業務中，套餐E&S（由泛美業務組成，是該公司商業專業業務領域的主要部門），到2023 年，毛承保保費從5,830 萬美元增加到6,270 萬美元。在新業務的推動下，套餐專業業務增長了約8%。機構任命、利率大幅上漲以及財產和一般責任風險敞口的增長。排除表現不佳、被終止的業務，包裝專業業務增長了 13%。

Targeted specialty, which contains the remaining business lines in commercial specialty had $32.7 million of premium in 2023 compared to $46.7 million in the second quarter of 2022. As Jay noted, this decline was mainly due to an operating business from wholesale agents that were not providing an acceptable return and managing catastrophe capacity.

目標專業（包含商業專業的其餘業務線）在2023 年的溢價為3,270 萬美元，而2022 年第二季度為4,670 萬美元。正如Jay 指出的，這種下降主要是由於批發代理商的經營業務不提供可接受的回報和管理災難的能力。

Within targeted specialty, several products grew. The Vacant Express product generated $7.9 million of premium in the second quarter of '23, which is up 23% compared to the second quarter of '22. Collector policies for private collectors grew approximately 4%.

在目標專業內，多種產品有所增長。 Vacant Express 產品在 2023 年第二季度產生了 790 萬美元的溢價，比 22 年第二季度增長了 23%。私人收藏家的收藏保單增長了約 4%。

Exited lines include the farm business sold in August 2022, the specialty property book that was sold in the fourth quarter of 2021, as well as other lines we have exited. Exited lines are continuing to run down as expected. Net written premium for the quarter was negative $0.7 million. Corporate expenses in the second quarter of 2023 were $5 million compared to $3 million in 2022. 2022 included a $2.7 million CARES Act employee retention credit.

退出的業務包括 2022 年 8 月出售的農場業務、2021 年第四季度出售的專業地產業務，以及我們已經退出的其他業務。正如預期的那樣，退出的線路繼續減少。該季度的淨承保保費為負 70 萬美元。 2023 年第二季度的公司支出為 500 萬美元，而 2022 年為 300 萬美元。2022 年包括 270 萬美元的 CARES 法案員工保留信貸。

We are pleased with our results this quarter. Our core business is providing good returns. Loss ratios performed as expected compared to 2022. Expenses were much lower due to actions taken in early 2023. The company's fixed income portfolio book yield is 3.8%. 96% of the portfolio was invested in fixed maturity investments and a little bit in cash.

我們對本季度的業績感到滿意。我們的核心業務是提供良好的回報。與 2022 年相比，損失率符合預期。由於 2023 年初採取的行動，費用要低得多。該公司的固定收益投資組合賬面收益率為 3.8%。 96%的投資組合投資於固定期限投資，還有少量現金。

The fixed income portfolio has an average rating of A and a duration of 1.4 years. Maturities and investment income are expected to generate $900 million of cash flow between June 30, 2023, and December 31, 2004 (sic - 2024). The funds that become available are currently being invested at yields higher than 5%. The actions that have been taken are providing value to our shareholders.

固定收益投資組合的平均評級為A，久期為1.4年。預計2023年6月30日至2004年12月31日（原文如此-2024年）期間，到期日和投資收入將產生9億美元的現金流。目前可用資金的投資收益率高於 5%。已採取的行動正在為我們的股東提供價值。

Thank you. We will now take your questions.

謝謝。我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ross Haberman, RLH Investments.

（操作員說明）Ross Haberman，RLH Investments。

Thank you, gentlemen. I'm sorry, I got on a bit late. Did you mention anything about the press release you issued I want to say about a month ago? You said something about a number of companies approached you in an informal or formal way. And can you say anything about the status of that now? Thank you.

謝謝你們，先生們。抱歉，我來晚了一點。您是否提到過我一個月前發布的新聞稿？您提到了一些公司以非正式或正式的方式與您接洽。您能談談現在的情況嗎？謝謝。

The conversations, they are continuing. That's all we're going to say at this point of time. Go ahead.

他們的談話仍在繼續。這就是我們此時要說的全部內容。前進。

Other quick one I had, a follow-up. How much is left in terms of your buyback authorization?

我有另一個快速的後續行動。您的回購授權還剩多少？

I'm sorry, could you repeat the question, please? I couldn't quite hear it.

抱歉，您能重複一下這個問題嗎？我聽不太清楚。

How much is left in terms of your buyback authorization in dollars?

您的回購授權還剩下多少美元？

Oh. $101 million.

哦。 1.01 億美元。

And that lasts through the end of the calendar year?

這會持續到日曆年年底嗎？

It's open for several years still.

它仍然開放幾年。

Okay. Thank you very much. I greatly appreciate your help. The best of luck.

好的。非常感謝。我非常感謝你的幫助。祝你好運。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question is from John Shafter. What forward-earnings impact should we see from the reduced reinsurance cost?

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·沙夫特。再保險成本的降低對未來盈利有何影響？

Well, our reinsurance costs last year for our June 1 renewal were approximately $10 million annually. This year, when we renewed the cost dropped to approximately $5 million. And that's due to the actions -- primarily due to the actions that we've taken to reduce our catastrophe-exposed business. We are able to buy less.

嗯，我們去年 6 月 1 日續保的再保險費用約為每年 1000 萬美元。今年，當我們續訂時，成本降至約 500 萬美元。這是由於我們採取的行動——主要是由於我們為減少災難性業務而採取的行動。我們可以少買點。

(Operator Instructions) Tom Kerr, Zacks Investment.

（操作員說明）Tom Kerr，Zacks Investment。

Good morning, guys. A couple of quick ones here. On the exited line business and the net earned premiums, can you give any more color on how that trends down? Will there still be earned premiums the rest of the year and maybe into '24? I know it's going to be a small amount.

早上好傢伙。這裡有幾個快速的。關於退出的線路業務和淨賺保費，您能否進一步說明其下降趨勢？今年剩下的時間，也許到 24 年，還會有賺取的保費嗎？我知道這會是一個小數額。

Yeah, it's going to be a very small amount. I mean, hang on just one second, Tom. Round numbers, we -- just bear with me for one second. We only had $6 million of -- $6.2 million of earned premium in the second quarter.

是的，這將是一個非常小的數額。我的意思是，等一下，湯姆。整數，我們——請耐心等待一秒鐘。第二季度我們只有 600 萬美元至 620 萬美元的已賺取保費。

We were $18.2 million year to date. So we went from $12 million to $6 million. We're probably going to go down somewhere between $2 million and $3 million. And by the end of the year, it should be virtually nothing.

年初至今，我們的營收為 1820 萬美元。所以我們從 1200 萬美元增加到 600 萬美元。我們可能會減少 200 萬至 300 萬美元。到今年年底，它應該幾乎什麼都沒有。

Okay. That's helpful. Can you repeat on the targeted specialty lines, the decrease there? Can you kind of give color, repeat what you said? I think you mentioned the drop in wholesalers or was there anything else?

好的。這很有幫助。您能否重複一下目標專業產品線的減少情況？你能給點顏色嗎，重複一下你說的話？我想你提到了批發商的下降或者還有其他什麼嗎？

Well, we had a couple of things. In some of our wholesale business, we non-renewed a business that was not providing an adequate return on capital. We also were managing catastrophe exposure. We are able to grow in our Vacant Express line, and we also grew our individual collector policies by 4%. So down a little bit in one area, up in a few others.

好吧，我們有幾件事。在我們的一些批發業務中，我們沒有續簽無法提供足夠資本回報的業務。我們還管理災難風險。我們的 Vacant Express 產品線得以增長，我們的個人收款人保單也增長了 4%。因此，在一個區域下降了一點，在其他一些區域上升了一點。

Okay. It makes sense.

好的。這說得通。

(multiple speakers) Tom, was really to increase overall profitability. As Jay noted, we had to sacrifice some business to improve overall results.

（多個發言者）湯姆，確實是為了提高整體盈利能力。正如傑伊指出的那樣，我們必須犧牲一些業務才能提高整體業績。

When we have only started the year after our review in the fourth quarter, we set specific targets for re-underwriting and pricing changes for individual agents that had large blocks of business with us, and a number of those have resulted in non-renewals.

當我們在第四季度的審查後才開始這一年時，我們為與我們有大量業務的個體代理商設定了重新承保和定價變化的具體目標，其中一些導致了不續約。

Okay. That's helpful. And on the book yield, and I can't do the math in my head, but if you're investing that much above 5% by the end of next year, does that mean a book yield could reach 5% or over? And I know that there's no crystal ball --

好的。這很有幫助。至於賬面收益率，我無法在腦子裡進行數學計算，但如果你到明年年底的投資率遠高於 5%，這是否意味著賬面收益率可能會達到 5% 或以上？我知道沒有水晶球——

I don't know if it will (multiple speakers) to 5%. It's -- our portfolio today, Tom, is, round numbers, $1.350 billion. We have $800 million maturing, where the extra $100 million -- when I noted $900 million, $100 million of that -- I'm using round numbers -- was investment income. You're going to get a yield that if rates stay where they are today, we should have yields that are approaching the mid-4s by -- that's kind of what you should be expecting.

我不知道是否會（多個發言者）達到 5%。湯姆，我們今天的投資組合是 13.5 億美元。我們有 8 億美元到期，其中額外的 1 億美元——當我注意到 9 億美元時，其中 1 億美元——我使用的是整數——是投資收入。你會得到一個收益率，如果利率保持在今天的水平，我們的收益率應該會接近 4 美元左右——這正是你應該期待的。

Got it. All right. Last question is -- I know you guys have a lot of excess capital. Is M&A or any tuck-in lines of business on the table right now? Or you're just focused on share buybacks and operating results?

知道了。好的。最後一個問題是——我知道你們有很多多餘的資本。目前是否有併購或任何其他業務可供考慮？或者您只關注股票回購和經營業績？

Primarily on share buybacks at this point in time, but we're always open to additional expansion if we see an opportunity out there.

目前主要是股票回購，但如果我們看到機會，我們總是願意進一步擴張。

Okay. Great. That's all I have for this morning.

好的。偉大的。這就是我今天早上的全部內容。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Guy Baron, Springview.

蓋伊·巴倫，斯普林維尤。

Hi, Jay. Hi, folks. I had a question about excess capital similar to the previous caller. Could you give us a sense of how much excess capital -- what the amount is of your excess capital above and beyond what is required to support the ongoing business?

嗨，傑伊。嗨伙計。我有一個關於多餘資本的問題，類似於之前的來電者。您能否讓我們了解一下有多少超額資本——超出支持持續業務所需的超額資本是多少？

It's between of between $100 million and $200 million right now. It's always hard to specify exactly what it is. The key for us is we have excess capital and the excess of the $101 million that we've authorized -- remaining authorization for share buyback.

目前價格在 1 億至 2 億美元之間。總是很難準確地指定它是什麼。對我們來說，關鍵是我們擁有超額資本，並且超出了我們已授權的 1.01 億美元——剩餘的股票回購授權。

It will increase over time because of our shrinkage of work our business down to the core business. So we expect our excess capital will probably grow over the next two years, absent a substantial change in our forecast of probably another $100 million or so.

隨著時間的推移，它會增加，因為我們的工作量縮減到了核心業務。因此，如果我們的預測沒有發生重大變化，我們預計未來兩年我們的過剩資本可能會增加 1 億美元左右。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Your next question is from Justin Saunders. Are we bullish about getting growth back in targeted specialty segments after the book was cleaned up?

您的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·桑德斯。在這本書被清理後，我們是否看好目標專業領域恢復增長？

Are we bullish? I think we're confident that we'll shift from shrinking to growing. We will have probably a similar comparison in the second six months of the year before we roll into '24. But in '24, against the base that we'll have in 23, we assume that we'll be able to get our targets to 10% or more.

我們看漲嗎？我認為我們有信心從萎縮轉向增長。在進入 24 年前，我們可能會在今年的後六個月進行類似的比較。但在 24 年，相對於 23 年的基礎，我們假設我們能夠將目標提高到 10% 或更多。

Andrew Vindigni, General American Investors Company.

安德魯·文迪尼 (Andrew Vindigni)，美國通用投資者公司。

Hi. I noticed that the there's roughly an $8 difference between your book value and your book value ex investment losses. So is that -- if you take that $800 million and divide it by [$13.50], roughly speaking, straight line, you might get that back as the portfolio rolls off. Is there any kind --

你好。我注意到你的賬面價值和扣除投資損失後的賬面價值之間大約有 8 美元的差異。那麼，如果你將這 8 億美元除以[13.50 美元]，粗略地說，直線，你可能會在投資組合縮減時收回它。有沒有一種——

That's -- oh, it's absolutely correct. As I noted, we have $800 million maturing between now and the end of next year. We have another $200 million in round numbers -- $250 million that's maturing in 2025. We're expecting that most of that unrealized loss will be recovered over that time period.

那是——哦，這是絕對正確的。正如我所指出的，從現在到明年年底，我們還有 8 億美元到期。我們還有另外 2 億美元的整數資金——其中 2.5 億美元將於 2025 年到期。我們預計大部分未實現的損失將在這段時間內得到彌補。

So it's pretty -- it's roughly proportional, roughly linear roughly speaking?

所以它很漂亮——大致是成比例的，大致是線性的？

Yeah. I haven't mapped it out month by month.

是的。我還沒有逐月地繪製出來。

Right.

正確的。

But as I noted, we expect that most of the unrealized loss will be recovered over that time period.

但正如我所指出的，我們預計大部分未實現損失將在這段時間內得到彌補。

And I noticed that I think you put back stock, and you paid kind of in the high-20s roughly. And your stock is at [34]. Given the expected increase in real book value with the losses going away, maybe you could be a little more aggressive in buying back stock or still be price sensitive, I guess.

我注意到，我認為你放回了庫存，你支付的費用大約是 20 多美元。你的庫存是[34]。考慮到實際賬面價值預計會隨著損失的消失而增加，我猜你可能會更積極地回購股票，或者仍然對價格敏感。

I would agree with your observation.

我同意你的觀察。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

（操作員說明） 目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。