Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to GBDC's earnings call for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2025. Before we begin, I'd like to take a moment to remind our listeners that remarks made during this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements other than statements of historical facts made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties.

大家好，歡迎參加 GBDC 截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的財政季度財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想花點時間提醒我們的聽眾，本次電話會議中的言論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議中除歷史事實陳述以外的其他陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述，並不保證未來的績效或結果，並涉及許多風險和不確定性。

Actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in GBDC's SEC filings. For materials we intend to refer to on today's earnings call, please visit the Investor Resources tab on the homepage of our website, which is www.golubcapitalbdc.com and click on the Events and Presentations link.

由於多種因素，包括 GBDC 不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。對於我們打算在今天的收益電話會議上參考的材料，請訪問我們網站主頁上的“投資者資源”選項卡，網址為 www.golubcapitalbdc.com，然後單擊“活動和演示”鏈接。

Our earnings release is also available on our website in the Investor Resources section. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to David Golub, Chief Executive Officer of GBDC.

我們的收益報告也可在我們網站的「投資者資源」部分查閱。提醒一下，本次通話正在錄音。說到這裡，我很高興將電話轉給 GBDC 執行長 David Golub。

Hello, everybody, and thanks for joining us today. I'm joined by Matt Benton, our Chief Operating Officer; and Chris Ericson, our Chief Financial Officer. For those of you who are new to GBDC, our investment strategy is focused on providing first lien senior secured loans to healthy, resilient middle market companies that are backed by strong partnership-oriented private equity sponsors.

大家好，感謝大家今天加入我們。與我一起參加的還有我們的營運長 Matt Benton 和財務長 Chris Ericson。對於 GBDC 的新用戶，我們的投資策略專注於向健康、有韌性的中型市場公司提供第一留置權優先擔保貸款，這些公司由強大的合作夥伴導向私募股權贊助商支持。

Yesterday, we issued our earnings press release for the quarter ended June 30, and we posted an earnings presentation on our website. We're going to be referring to this presentation over the course of today's call. I'm going to start with headlines, and then Matt and Chris are going to go through our operating and financial performance for the quarter in more detail. And finally, I'll wrap up with our outlook for the coming period, and we'll take some questions.

昨天，我們發布了截至 6 月 30 日的季度收益新聞稿，並在我們的網站上發布了收益報告。我們將在今天的電話會議中參考該簡報。我先從頭條新聞開始，然後馬特和克里斯將更詳細地介紹我們本季的營運和財務表現。最後，我將總結我們對未來時期的展望，並回答一些問題。

The headline is that GBDC had another good boring quarter. Here are the highlights. Adjusted NII per share was $0.39. This corresponds to an adjusted NII return on equity of 10.4%. Adjusted net income per share was $0.34, and that's an adjusted return on equity of 9.1%. This brings the since IPO internal rate of return for GBDC shareholders to 9.6% over 15 years.

標題是 GBDC 又度過了一個無聊的季度。以下是重點內容。調整後每股淨資產收益率 (NII) 為 0.39 美元。這相當於調整後淨資產收益率 (NII) 為 10.4%。調整後每股淨收入為 0.34 美元，調整後股本報酬率為 9.1%。這使得 GBDC 股東自 IPO 以來 15 年內的內部報酬率達到 9.6%。

Adjusted net income per share included $0.05 per share of adjusted net realized and unrealized losses, primarily unrealized losses in the small tail of underperforming borrowers that you've heard us speak about previously.

調整後的每股淨收入包括每股 0.05 美元的調整後淨已實現和未實現損失，主要是您之前聽我們談到的業績不佳的借款人的小尾部的未實現損失。

Our new investment activity increased from prior quarters, but the overall M&A environment remained muted. And we continue to see an encouraging level of resilience across our borrowers with internal performance ratings remaining strong and generally consistent quarter over quarter. With that, I'll pass the call over to Matt Benton to discuss the quarter in more detail.

我們的新投資活動較前幾季有所增加，但整體併購環境依然低迷。我們繼續看到借款人表現出令人鼓舞的韌性，內部績效評級保持強勁，並且與上一季基本保持一致。說完這些，我將把電話轉給馬特·本頓 (Matt Benton)，以更詳細地討論本季度的情況。

Thanks, David. I'm going to start on slide 4. GBDC's $0.39 per share of adjusted NII and $0.34 per share of adjusted earnings were driven by four key factors. First, overall credit performance remains solid. Nearly 90% of GBDC's investment portfolio at fair value remains in our highest performing internal rating categories.

謝謝，大衛。我將從第 4 張投影片開始。GBDC 調整後每股 NII 為 0.39 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.34 美元，受四個關鍵因素的影響。一是信貸整體表現穩健。以公允價值計算，GBDC 投資組合中近 90% 仍處於我們表現最高的內部評級類別。

The $0.05 of adjusted net unrealized and realized losses were primarily related to fair value markdowns on a small number of underperforming investments, the majority of which were in equity investments in these portfolio companies. Investments on non-accrual status remained very low at 60 basis points of the total investment portfolio at fair value. This level is well below the BDC peer industry average.

調整後的淨未實現和已實現損失為 0.05 美元，主要與少數表現不佳的投資的公允價值減記有關，其中大部分是這些投資組合公司的股權投資。非應計投資仍處於非常低的水平，以公允價值計算僅佔總投資組合的 60 個基點。這一水準遠低於BDC同行行業平均。

Second, earnings were supported by historically high base rates and attractive spreads consistent with recent quarters. GBDC's investment income yield was 10.6%, a sequential decline of about 20 basis points, primarily driven by, one, modestly lower base rates, mostly related to a greater mix of loans tied to lower non-SOFR reference rates; and two, modest spread compression during the quarter.

其次，獲利受到歷史高點基準利率和與最近幾季一致的具有吸引力的利差的支持。GBDC 的投資收益率為 10.6%，環比下降約 20 個基點，主要原因是：第一，基準利率略有下降，這主要與與較低的非 SOFR 參考利率掛鉤的貸款組合增加有關；第二，本季度利差略有壓縮。

Third, a decline in GBDC's borrowing costs largely offset the sequential decline in investment income yield. The repricing of GBDC's syndicated corporate revolver, which took effect in mid-May, reduced effective borrowing costs during the quarter. And fourth, earnings benefited from lower operating expenses due to GBDC's market-leading fee structure.

第三，GBDC借貸成本的下降在很大程度上抵消了投資收益收益率的連續下降。GBDC 銀團企業循環信用的重新定價於 5 月中旬生效，降低了本季的有效借貸成本。第四，由於 GBDC 的市場領先費用結構，營運費用降低，獲利受益。

GBDC's investment portfolio grew modestly quarter over quarter, an increase of 4% to just under $9 billion at fair value. The increase was the result of $557 million of new investment commitments in the quarter, $411 million of which funded in the quarter and net of $306 million in repayments. We continue to remain highly selective and conservative in our underwriting, closing on just 3.1% of deals reviewed in the quarter at a weighted average LTV of approximately 34%.

GBDC 的投資組合較上季小幅成長，成長 4%，以公允價值計算略低於 90 億美元。這一增長是由於本季 5.57 億美元的新投資承諾，其中 4.11 億美元在本季到位，並扣除 3.06 億美元的償還金額。我們在核保方面繼續保持高度選擇性和保守性，本季僅完成了 3.1% 的交易，加權平均 LTV 約為 34%。

We continue to lean in on existing sponsor relationships and portfolio company incumbencies for approximately half of our origination volume and delivered an uptick in deal activity with new borrowers. We continue to leverage our scale to lead deals, acting as the sole or lead lender in 88% of our transactions. We focused on the core middle market, which we believe continues to offer better risk-adjusted return potential than the large borrower market.

我們繼續依靠現有的發起人關係和投資組合公司在職人員來完成大約一半的發起人量，並增加了與新借款人的交易活動。我們繼續利用我們的規模來主導交易，在 88% 的交易中充當唯一或主要貸款人。我們專注於核心中端市場，我們相信該市場比大型借款人市場繼續提供更好的風險調整回報潛力。

The median EBITDA for our calendar Q2 2025 originations was $79 million. We believe our ability to play across the size spectrum is a particularly valuable differentiator today versus many of our peers that are limited to the large borrower market.

我們 2025 年第二季的 EBITDA 中位數為 7,900 萬美元。我們相信，與許多僅限於大型借款人市場的同行相比，我們在規模範圍內開展業務的能力是當今特別有價值的差異化因素。

Continuing on slide 4, let me briefly summarize distributions paid and certain balance sheet changes in the quarter. Total distributions paid in the quarter were $0.39 per share. NAV per share decreased by $0.04 on a sequential basis to $15, primarily because of net unrealized losses. Net debt to equity increased modestly quarter-over-quarter, ending at 1.26 turns. On average, throughout the quarter, GBDC's net leverage was 1.21 turns, well within our targeted range of 0.85 to 1.25 turns.

繼續第 4 張投影片，讓我簡要總結本季支付的分配和某些資產負債表變動。本季支付的總分配額為每股 0.39 美元。每股淨值環比下降 0.04 美元至 15 美元，主要原因是未實現淨損失。淨負債與股權比率環比小幅增加，最終達到 1.26 倍。整個季度，GBDC 的平均淨槓桿率為 1.21 倍，遠低於我們設定的 0.85 至 1.25 倍的目標範圍。

During the quarter, we opportunistically repurchased common stock on an accretive basis. GBDC's Board declared a regular quarterly distribution of $0.39 per share, representing an annualized dividend yield of 10.4% based on GBDC's NAV per share as of June 30, 2025. I'm going to turn it over to Chris now to take us through our financial results in more detail. Chris?

在本季度，我們抓住機會以增值方式回購了普通股。GBDC 董事會宣布定期季度分紅為每股 0.39 美元，根據 GBDC 截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的每股資產淨值計算，年化股息殖利率為 10.4%。現在我將把時間交給克里斯，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。克里斯？

Thanks, Matt. Turning to slide 7. You can see how the earnings drivers Matt just described and distributions paid in the quarter translated into GBDC's June 30, 2025, NAV per share of $15. Adjusted NII per share of $0.39 was in line with the $0.39 per share base distribution paid out during the quarter.

謝謝，馬特。翻到幻燈片 7。您可以看到 Matt 剛剛描述的獲利驅動因素和本季支付的分配如何轉化為 GBDC 2025 年 6 月 30 日每股 15 美元的資產淨值。調整後的每股 NII 為 0.39 美元，與本季支付的每股 0.39 美元基本分配一致。

Adjusted net realized and unrealized losses were $0.05 per share and repurchases of common stock during the quarter resulted in $0.01 per share of NAV accretion. Together, these results drove a net asset value per share decrease to $15. We will turn to slide 10, which details our origination activity for the quarter.

調整後的淨已實現和未實現損失為每股 0.05 美元，本季普通股回購導致每股資產淨值增加 0.01 美元。綜合起來，這些結果導致每股淨值下降至 15 美元。我們將翻到第 10 張投影片，其中詳細介紹了我們本季的發起活動。

Net funds quarter over quarter increased modestly by $340 million as the combination of funded new originations and DDTL and revolver draws outpaced repayments in the quarter. Looking at the bottom of the slide, the weighted average rate on new investments was 9.2%.

由於本季新發起貸款、DDTL 和循環信貸提取總額的融資額超過了還款額，淨資金環比小幅增加 3.4 億美元。從投影片底部看，新投資的加權平均利率為 9.2%。

Investments that repaid in the quarter were at a weighted average rate of 9.8%. We did see some spread widening immediately after Liberation Day that was followed by some spread tightening over the remainder of the quarter.

本季償還的投資加權平均利率為 9.8%。我們確實看到解放日之後利差立即有所擴大，而在本季度剩餘時間內利差又有所收窄。

Slide 11 shows GBDC's overall portfolio mix. And as you can see, the portfolio breakdown by investment type remained consistent quarter over quarter with one-stop loans continuing to represent around 87% of the portfolio at fair value. Slide 12 shows that GBDC's portfolio remains highly diversified by portfolio company with an average investment size of approximately 20 basis points, consistent with prior quarters.

投影片 11 展示了 GBDC 的整體投資組合。如您所見，按投資類型劃分的投資組合分佈與上一季相比保持一致，一站式貸款以公允價值計算繼續佔投資組合的 87% 左右。投影片 12 顯示，GBDC 的投資組合仍高度多樣化，平均投資規模約 20 個基點，與前幾季一致。

Additionally, our largest borrower represents just 1.5% of the debt investment portfolio and our top 10 largest borrowers represent below 12% of the portfolio. We are big believers in modulating credit risk through position size, which we believe has served GBDC well in previous credit cycles.

此外，我們最大的借款人僅佔債務投資組合的 1.5%，而我們前 10 大借款人佔投資組合的 12% 以下。我們堅信透過頭寸規模來調節信用風險，我們相信這在先前的信貸週期中為 GBDC 提供了良好的服務。

And as of June 30, 2025, 92% of our investment portfolio consisted of first lien senior secured floating rate loans to borrowers across a diversified range of what we believe to be resilient industries. The economic analysis on slide 13 highlights the drivers of GBDC's net investment spread of 4.9%.

截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，我們投資組合的 92% 為向我們認為具有彈性的多元化產業借款人提供的優先留置權優先擔保浮動利率貸款。投影片 13 上的經濟分析強調了 GBDC 淨投資利差 4.9% 的驅動因素。

Let's walk through this slide in detail. We'll start with the dark blue line, which is our investment income yield. As a reminder, the investment income yield includes the amortization of fees and discounts. GBDC's investment income yield fell 20 basis points sequentially to 10.6%.

讓我們詳細地看一下這張投影片。我們從深藍色線開始，這是我們的投資收益率。提醒一下，投資收益收益率包括費用和折扣的攤銷。GBDC 的投資報酬率較上月下降 20 個基點，至 10.6%。

The decline was primarily the result of a lower weighted average spread on debt investments in the portfolio and the result of a portion of GBDC's 99% floating rate investment portfolio re-indexing in the quarter to lower reference rates.

下降的主要原因是投資組合中債務投資的加權平均利差較低，以及 GBDC 的 99% 浮動利率投資組合的一部分在本季度重新調整至較低的參考利率。

Our cost of debt, the teal line, decreased 20 basis points to 5.7%, reflecting our approximately 80% floating rate debt funding structure and the partial quarter contribution of the amendment of our syndicated corporate revolver. Net-net, GBDC's weighted average net investment spread, the gold line, remained stable quarter-over-quarter at 4.9%.

我們的債務成本（青綠色線）下降了 20 個基點，至 5.7%，反映了我們約 80% 的浮動利率債務融資結構以及銀團企業循環信貸修訂的部分季度貢獻。淨額，GBDC 的加權平均淨投資利差，即黃金線，環比保持穩定，為 4.9%。

Moving on to slides 14 and 15 as we take a closer look at our credit quality metrics. On slide 14, you can see that non-accruals decreased slightly to 60 basis points of total investments at fair value. The number of investments on non-accrual status remained at 9. Slide 15 shows the trend in internal performance ratings.

接下來我們看第 14 和 15 張投影片，仔細看看我們的信用品質指標。在投影片 14 上，您可以看到非應計項目以公允價值略微下降至總投資的 60 個基點。非應計投資數量仍為 9 項。投影片 15 顯示了內部績效評級的趨勢。

As Matt noted earlier, nearly 90% of the total investment portfolio remained in our top 2 internal performance rating categories and investments rated 3, signaling a borrower is or has the potential to be performing below expectations at underwriting remained low at just 9% of the total investment portfolio. The proportion of loans rated 1 and 2, which are the loans we believe are most likely to see significant credit impairment, remain very low at just 1.3% of the portfolio at fair value.

正如馬特之前指出的那樣，近 90% 的總投資組合仍然位於我們的前 2 個內部績效評級類別中，而評級為 3 的投資（表明借款人在承保時的表現或有可能低於預期）仍然很低，僅佔總投資組合的 9%。我們認為，評級為 1 和 2 的貸款最有可能出現重大信用減值，而這些貸款的比例仍然很低，以公允價值計算僅佔投資組合的 1.3%。

As we usually do, we're going to skip past slide 16 through 19. These slides have more detail on GBDC's financial statements, dividend history, and other key metrics. I'll wrap up this section by reviewing GBDC's liquidity and investment capacity on slides 20 to 21. First, let's focus on the key takeaways on slide 21. Our debt funding structure remains highly diversified and flexible.

像往常一樣，我們將跳過幻燈片 16 至 19。這些幻燈片詳細介紹了 GBDC 的財務報表、股息歷史和其他關鍵指標。我將回顧第 20 至 21 張投影片上的 GBDC 的流動性和投資能力來結束本節。首先，讓我們專注於投影片 21 上的重點內容。我們的債務融資結構仍然高度多樣化和靈活。

Our debt maturity profile remains well positioned with 42% of our debt funding in the form of unsecured notes with no near-term maturities.

我們的債務到期狀況依然良好，其中 42% 的債務融資為無擔保票據，且無短期到期債務。

The April 2025 corporate revolver amendment further enhanced our debt maturity profile, extending final maturity on the nearly $2 billion of total commitments under the facility through 2030, and we expect to operate at the lowest pricing tier of 1.525% over one month SOFR given the level of overcollateralization in the facility. And following quarter end, we elected to repay in full the outstanding notes under the GBDC 3 2022 debt securitization with available borrowing capacity under GBDC's corporate revolver.

2025 年 4 月的企業循環信貸修正案進一步改善了我們的債務到期狀況，將該工具下近 20 億美元總承諾的最終到期日延長至 2030 年，並且考慮到該工具的超額抵押水平，我們預計最低定價層級將為一個月 SOFR 的 1.525%。在接下來的季度末，我們選擇利用 GBDC 公司循環信貸額度下的可用借貸能力全額償還 GBDC 3 2022 債務證券化項下的未償還票據。

This action represented the final step in transitioning the post-GBDC 3 merger debt funding structure, and we expect it to result in a modest borrowing cost reduction beginning in the quarter ended 9/30/2025. Consistent with our asset liability matching principle, 82% of GBDC's total debt funding is floating rate or swapped to a floating rate.

這項舉措代表了 GBDC 3 合併後債務融資結構轉變的最後一步，我們預計從 2025 年 9 月 30 日結束的季度開始，它將導致借貸成本適度降低。與我們的資產負債匹配原則一致，GBDC 82% 的總債務融資是浮動利率或轉換為浮動利率。

The portion of the debt funding that remains fixed rate are the 2026 and 2027 notes that were issued with a weighted average coupon of 2.3%. And as you've heard us say on prior occasions, we did not swap them out for floating rate exposure.

維持固定利率的債務融資部分是 2026 年和 2027 年票據，發行時的加權平均票面利率為 2.3%。正如您之前聽到我們說過的，我們並沒有將它們換成浮動利率敞口。

Overall, our liquidity position remains strong, and we ended the quarter with approximately $950 million of liquidity from unrestricted cash, undrawn commitments on our corporate revolver and the unused unsecured revolver provided by our adviser. We're well positioned with the level of capital and significant amount of liquidity for the period ahead. Now I'll hand it back over to David for closing remarks.

總體而言，我們的流動性狀況依然強勁，本季度末我們擁有約 9.5 億美元的流動性，包括無限制現金、公司循環信貸未提取的承諾以及我們的顧問提供的未使用的無擔保循環信貸。憑藉著充足的資本和充足的流動性，我們為未來一段時間做好了準備。現在我將把發言權交還給戴維，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, Chris. So to sum up, GBDC posted another quarter of good boring results. But these results happened in a quarter that from a macro perspective, wasn't boring at all. It saw big market swings, and it saw another example of a bad consensus forecast. You'll recall in prior quarters, I've talked about how many bad consensus forecasts we've seen since the beginning of COVID.

謝謝，克里斯。總而言之，GBDC 又發布了一個季度的良好業績。但從宏觀角度來看，這些結果發生在一個並不無聊的季度。它見證了市場的巨大波動，也見證了另一個糟糕的共識預測的例子。您會記得，在前幾個季度中，我曾談到自 COVID 爆發以來我們看到了多少糟糕的共識預測。

At the beginning of calendar Q2, the strong consensus view was that tariff-related uncertainty would be a big drag on the US economy and that would probably result in slowing growth. But that's not what happened. Instead, the US economy has at least so far demonstrated considerable resilience.

在第二季初，人們普遍認為，與關稅相關的不確定性將嚴重拖累美國經濟，並可能導致經濟成長放緩。但事實並非如此。相反，美國經濟至少迄今為止表現出了相當強的韌性。

So I'm now going to offer up some observations and some predictions about the future, but I want to acknowledge in doing so that we're in a period that's proved very difficult for forecasters.

所以我現在要提出一些關於未來的觀察和預測，但我要承認，我們正處於一個對預測者來說非常困難的時期。

I advised last quarter, given this that we should all stay humble, we should all choose resilient strategies, and we should prepare for multiple scenarios. I think that was good advice then, and it's good advice now. With that context, let me touch briefly on two topics on our outlook for credit performance and our outlook for the deal environment. First, credit performance, I expect what is already a protracted credit cycle to become even more protracted.

上個季度我建議，有鑑於此，我們都應該保持謙虛，我們都應該選擇有彈性的策略，我們應該為多種情況做好準備。我認為那在當時是個好建議，現在也是個好建議。在此背景下，讓我簡要地談談我們對信貸表現的展望和對交易環境的展望這兩個主題。首先，就信貸表現而言，我預期已經延長的信貸週期將變得更加延長。

Traditionally, credit cycles, they're typically spiked. Something bad happens, there's a collapse in confidence or there's too much inventory or there's a geopolitical shock, and you get a spike in credit defaults where defaults rise to an unusual height and then quickly fall.

傳統上，信貸週期通常會出現高峰。當一些不好的事情發生時，信心崩潰，庫存過剩，或出現地緣政治衝擊，信用違約就會激增，違約率上升到異常高度，然後迅速下降。

That's not what we've seen in this credit cycle. In 2022, when we saw the dramatic increase in interest rates, a lot of smart people, including us, expected that we'd see a sudden significant increase in defaults in response to that increase in rates, but that didn't happen.

這並不是我們在本次信貸週期中所看到的情況。2022 年，當我們看到利率大幅上升時，包括我們在內的許多聰明人都預計，由於利率上升，違約率會突然大幅上升，但這並沒有發生。

Instead, almost two years later, we started to see a slow increase in defaults, and we saw it across the broadly syndicated market, the high-yield market and private credit markets. And we continue to see that slow increase, sustained increase today.

相反，近兩年後，我們開始看到違約率緩慢上升，而且這一現像在廣泛銀團市場、高收益市場和私人信貸市場都有所體現。如今我們仍然看到這種緩慢而持續的成長。

Defaults in the broadly syndicated market, a place where the data is reasonably clean once you factor in liability management exercises, they've been running at about 4.5% for about 18 months. That's about 2x historical average levels.

廣泛銀團市場的違約率已持續約 18 個月，維持在 4.5% 左右。一旦將負債管理措施考慮在內，該市場的數據就相當清晰。這大約是歷史平均值的兩倍。

We think this elevated level of credit stress across public and private credit markets is likely to continue for a considerable period with apologies to Tolstoy who famously wrote that every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. Every unhappy credit is unhappy in its own way. But there are a few common themes that cover a large number of the stressed companies that we see today.

我們認為，公共和私人信貸市場中這種高水準的信貸壓力可能會持續相當長的一段時間，正如托爾斯泰所寫的名言：每個不幸的家庭都有各自的不幸。每一個不愉快的信用都有其不愉快的一面。但我們今天看到的大量陷入困境的公司都有一些共同的主題。

Three examples. Some haven't grown into aggressive capital structures that were put in place in 2021. Some are on the wrong side of some changing post-COVID consumer taste. And for some, the adjustments in their original business plans haven't played out the way that they were expected to play out. Our observation is that many of these companies have not yet gone through restructurings and fixed their balance sheets.

三個例子。有些公司尚未發展成為 2021 年建立的積極的資本結構。有些人對後疫情時代消費者口味的變化感到不滿。對於一些企業來說，他們原來的商業計劃的調整併沒有按照預期的方式進行。我們的觀察是，其中許多公司尚未完成重組並修復其資產負債表。

Some have done liability management exercises, but those LMEs haven't solved their issues. They've just kicked the can.

一些大中型企業已經開展了負債管理工作，但這些大中型企業尚未解決其問題。他們只是踢了罐子而已。

So we expect high-yield BSL and private credit default rates to stay elevated for some time from here. We also anticipate that there will continue to be very substantial dispersion in credit manager performance. We call these winners and whiners. Some firms are going to continue to produce really solid ROEs and some won't. We think this will be directly related to whether the firms have solid competitive advantages.

因此，我們預計高收益 BSL 和私人信貸違約率將在一段時間內保持在高位。我們也預期信貸經理的業績將持續存在很大差異。我們把這些人稱為勝利者和抱怨者。有些公司將繼續創造真正穩健的淨資產收益率，而有些公司則不會。我們認為這將直接關係到企業是否具有穩固的競爭優勢。

So accordingly, we expect the same winners to keep winning and the same whiners to keep, well, you get the idea.

因此，我們預期同樣的贏家會繼續贏，同樣的抱怨者會繼續抱怨，嗯，你明白我的意思了。

So that's topic one. We expect a protracted credit cycle to become even more protracted. Second topic, let me give you my view on when the muted M&A environment is going to get less muted. Now here, there are some reasons for optimism. The recent enactment of the Big Beautiful Bill provides a significant degree of clarity on tax and spending changes. The regulatory environment is also becoming clearer.

這就是第一個主題。我們預計，長期信貸週期將變得更加長期。第二個主題，讓我談談我對低迷的併購環境何時會變得不那麼低迷的看法。現在，我們有一些理由感到樂觀。最近頒布的《大美麗法案》對稅收和支出變化提供了相當程度的明確性。監理環境也日趨清晰。

And there remains, as we've talked about in prior quarters, there remains very significant pressure on private equity firms to be sellers in order to make distributions to LPs and to be buyers to deploy the very significant amounts of dry powder that they're behind schedule in deploying. So all that's positive.

正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的那樣，私募股權公司仍然面臨著巨大的壓力，它們要么作為賣方向 LP 進行分配，要么作為買方部署大量落後於計劃的干火藥。所以這一切都是正面的。

On the other hand, there's still a lot of tariff uncertainty, and there's still a lot of global macro issues. On balance, I expect the M&A environment to improve. I think it's going to improve slowly in the rest of this year and then more quickly next year. But I also want to go back to my theme of humility. I'm humble about this prediction.

另一方面，關稅方面仍然存在許多不確定性，全球宏觀問題仍然存在很多。總的來說，我預計併購環境將會改善。我認為今年剩餘時間情況會慢慢好轉，明年會更快好轉。但我也想回到我的謙遜主題。我對這個預測持謙虛態度。

We have all been pretty consistently wrong on this. No matter whether the deal markets heat up or not, our playbook at Golub Capital is going to remain the same as it's been for decades.

在這一點上，我們一直都犯錯。無論交易市場是否升溫，Golub Capital 的策略都將與幾十年來一樣保持不變。

We're going to continue to be very selective when we make new loans. We're going to continue to focus on early detection of borrower underperformance, and we're going to continue to work with our sponsor friends to address problems proactively. Our approach is all about minimizing realized credit losses and being ready to play offense when opportunities arise. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

我們在發放新貸款時將繼續非常謹慎。我們將繼續致力於及早發現借款人的表現不佳，並將繼續與我們的贊助商朋友合作，積極解決問題。我們的方法是盡量減少已實現的信用損失，並在機會出現時做好進攻準備。接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Heli Sheth, Raymond James.

赫利謝斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

So a quick one on leverage. So this quarter, you guys ended with net leverage of 1.26, which is quite high by historical standards. So is it fair to say that you're expecting a significant wave of repayments to eventually lever down?

讓我們快速討論一下槓桿。本季度，你們的淨槓桿率為 1.26，以歷史標準來看，這個水準相當高。那麼，您是否預期會出現一波大規模的還款潮，最終導致槓桿率下降？

Yes and no. You're correct that we have some repayments in the pipeline and that we think the quarter end leverage was a little bit higher than if you were looking at it over time.

是也不是。您說得對，我們正在進行一些還款，而且我們認為季度末的槓桿率比您長期觀察的結果要高一些。

And Matt alluded to this in his comments, he alluded to the fact that average leverage over the quarter was about 1.2. We've always thought about leverage as being appropriate in the context of a target range rather than being too religious on one specific point within the range and 1.25 is the high end of our range. So you indicated in your question, are we anticipating a deleveraging? No. But likewise, we're not anticipating further leveraging either.

馬特在他的評論中提到了這一點，他提到本季的平均槓桿率約為1.2。我們一直認為，槓桿率應該在一個目標區間內合理，而不是過於執著於區間內的某個特定點，而1.25是我們區間的上限。所以您在問題中表明，我們是否預期去槓桿？不。但同樣，我們也不期待進一步利用槓桿。

Got it. And a quick follow-up, maybe a more philosophical question, but spreads across the floating rate markets are quite tight right now, not just with BDCs, but with syndicated loan spreads as well, which tend to widen when rates go down. So with BDCs spreads having lagged these movements upwards of six months, do you think this lag time between liquid loan markets and BDCs is going to remain the same? Or is it more likely to respond more quickly going forward?

知道了。接下來是一個簡單的問題，也許是一個更具哲學性的問題，但目前浮動利率市場的利差相當緊張，不僅是 BDC 的利差，還有銀團貸款利差，當利率下降時，銀團貸款利差往往會擴大。那麼，由於 BDC 利差落後於這些變動六個月以上，您認為行動貸款市場和 BDC 之間的延遲時間會保持不變嗎？或者它更有可能在未來做出更快的反應？

I'm not sure I understand your question. When you say BDCs have lagged, can you elaborate on what you mean by that?

我不確定我是否理解了你的問題。當您說 BDC 已經落後時，您能詳細說明一下這是什麼意思嗎？

Yeah, lagging like loan spread movements with the syndicated loan market.

是的，就像銀團貸款市場的貸款利差變動一樣落後。

So you're saying that the syndicated loan market has seen more spread compression than we've seen in our reported spreads on our new loans?

所以您的意思是，銀團貸款市場利差的壓縮程度比我們報告的新貸款利差還要大？

Yeah.

是的。

You're right. I think that is an appropriate description of the pattern that we've seen. We've seen quite significant spread compression in the broadly syndicated market. It's been a pattern for some time.

你說得對。我認為這是對我們所見模式的恰當描述。我們已經看到廣泛聯合市場中的利差明顯壓縮。這已經成為一種模式有一段時間了。

So if you think back to the summer of 2022 when rates went up and the broadly syndicated market dislocated and we saw very significant spread widening since 2023, we've been on a trend toward a more borrower-friendly, tighter spread environment in both private credit and the broadly syndicated market.

因此，如果回想一下 2022 年夏天，當時利率上升，廣泛的銀團市場混亂，我們看到自 2023 年以來利差顯著擴大，我們一直處於一種趨勢，即私人信貸和廣泛的銀團市場都朝著對借款人更加友好、利差更緊的方向發展。

I do think you're right that private credit spreads are a little stickier, especially middle market private spreads. But we've seen a significant degree of spread compression in our markets as well. And I don't think we're immune to those trends.

我確實認為您說得對，私人信貸利差確實有點高，尤其是中間市場私人信貸利差。但我們也看到市場利差明顯壓縮。我認為我們也無法免受這些趨勢的影響。

I think the right way to look at it is, especially in the core middle market as opposed to the larger market, the core middle market is insulated, but not immune from spread trends that are happening in the broadly syndicated market.

我認為正確的看待這個問題的方式是，特別是在核心中端市場而不是更大的市場中，核心中端市場是獨立的，但並不能免受廣泛聯合市場中發生的價差趨勢的影響。

The larger end of the private credit market is less insulated because BSL is a replacement. So we've seen a number of transactions. Finastra is a good example recently where credits that were in the private credit market are being refinanced at lower spreads in the broadly syndicated market. So because of that phenomenon, the larger end of the market tends to respond more quickly to changes in spreads than the core middle market.

由於 BSL 是一種替代品，私人信貸市場的較大端受到的保護較少。因此我們看到了許多交易。Finastra 就是最近一個很好的例子，私人信貸市場上的信貸在廣泛銀團市場上以較低的利差進行再融資。因此，由於這種現象，較大的市場端往往比核心中間市場對利差變化的反應更快。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call back over to David Golub for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉回給 David Golub 進行結束語。請繼續。

Gosh, it seems today, the report is so good boring. We don't have the usual number of questions, which is fine. Thank you all for listening. As always if you have questions after today, please feel free to get in touch, and we look forward to being back in front of you next quarter. Thank you.

天哪，看來今天的報告好無聊。我們的問題數量沒有像往常那麼多，這很好。謝謝大家的聆聽。像往常一樣，如果您今天之後還有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫，我們期待下個季度再次為您服務。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入，現在可以斷開連線了。